EPA01635 Foldtani Kozlony 2000 130 2

Fldtani Kzlny
Bulletin of the Hungarian Geological Society

Vol. 130. No. 2.
A Magyarhoni Fldtani Trsulat folyirata
Budapest, 2000
Fldtani Kzlny
A Magyarhoni Fldtani Trsulat Bulletin of the Hungarian Geological
folyirata Society
Vol. 130. No. 2.
Budapest
ISSN 0015-542X
Felels kiad Editor-in-charge

BREZSNYNSZKY Kroly Kroly BREZSNYNSZKY
A Magyarhoni Fldtani Trsulat President of the Hungarian
elnke Geological Society
Fszerkeszt Editor-in chief

CSSZR Gza Gza CSSZR
Technikai szerkesztk Technical editors

PIROS Olga Olga PIROS
KRIVNN HORVTH gnes gnes KRIVN-HORVTH
Szerkesztbizottsg Editorial board

Elnk: BREZSNYNSZKY Kroly Chairman: Kroly BREZSNYNSZKY
RKAI Pter, DUDICH Endre, FODOR Lszl, Pter RKAI, Endre DUDICH, Lszl FODOR,
GRESCHIK Gyula, KECSKEMTI Tibor, Gyula GRESCHIK, Tibor KECSKEMTI,
MINDSZENTY Andrea, NMEDI VARGA Zoltn, Andrea MINDSZENTY, Zoltn NMEDI VARGA
RADCZ Gyula, VRS Attila Gyula RADCZ, Attila VRS
Nyelvi lektor: Linguistic revision:

Philip RAWLINSON (a nem by Philip RAWLINSON (for papers of non native
anyanyelv szerzk esetben) English authors)
F tmogat Sponsors
MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas Co., Budapest
M O L Magyar Olaj- s Gzipari Rt., Budapest
Tmogatk Foundation for the Geology of Hungary

Magyar Fldtanrt Alaptvny Federation of Technical and Scientific Societies,
Mszaki s Termszettudomnyi Egyesletek Hungary
Szvetsge Prmagz Hungria Industrial Co. Budapest
Prmagz-Hungria Rt., Budapest Pro Renovanda Cultura Hungri Foundation
Pro Renovanda Cultura Hungri Alaptvny
A kziratokat az albbi Manuscripts to be sent to

cmre krjk kldeni
PIROS Olga, 1443 Budapest, Pf. 106. Olga PIROS, 1443 Budapest, PO. box 106.
Fldtani Kzlny is abstracted and indexed in GeoRef (Washington) Pascal Folio (Orleans)
Zentralblatt fr Palontologie (Stuttgart), Referativny Zhurnal (Moscow) and Geolgiai s
Geofizikai Szakirodalmi Tjkoztat (Budapest)
Fldtani Kzlny 130/2 177-192 (2000) Budapest
Ftitkri jelents a Magyarhoni Fldtani

1
Trsulat 1999. vi tevkenysgrl
CSSZR G z a
Tisztelt Kzgyls, Kedves Kollgk, Hlgyeim s Uraim!
A tavalyi kzgyls m g az n n e p i v esemnyeirl adott szmot a vissza

fogott bizakods h a n g n e m b e n . Akkor gy tnt, a gazdasg talpra llt, s
r e m n y k e d t n k benne, h o g y a kereskedelmi hlzatok, bevsrl k z p o n t o k ki
plse u t n valamelyest a geolgia szolglatait ignyl gazatok is m e g i z m o
sodnak, s e g y enyhe fellendls vltja fel a m l y p o n t n a k vlt helyzetet. H o g y
mennyire n e m gy trtnt, arra a ksbbiekben m g visszatrek.
A z elmlt - jelents e s e m n y e k b e n a korbbiaknl is gazdagabb - v ismere
t b e n az e m b e r hajlamos arra, h o g y elaltassa a fent emltettekbl fakad aggo
dalmt, annl is inkbb, m e r t tlsgosan hossznak tnik az alagt eddig bejrt
szakasza, m e g s z o m j a z t u n k mr egy kis ltet napsugrra. Erre azonban igazn
o k o t jelenleg csak a konokul optimistk tallnak.
ltalnos helyzet
Tudomsul kell vennnk, hogy a hazai gazdasgi letben n e m csak az egykor

n a g y tmegben felhasznlt rceket, (pl. a bauxitot) v a g y a szilrd energiahordoz
svnyi nyersanyagokat, (kszenet, urnrcet) termel vllalatok vesztettk el
slyukat v a g y tntek el egszen a gazdasgbl, h a n e m az orszg n e m rg mg
legtekintlyesebb, m e g h a t r o z jelentsg cge, a M O L is feladni ltszik
korbbi, messzirl sikeresnek ltsz zletpolitikjt, amiben legalbbis egyen
slyban volt a sznhidrogn-kutats s termels a sznhidrogntermkek rtke
stsvel. N e m clom s tisztem sem, hogy e vltozsok gazdasgi indokoltsgt
firtassam, klnsen n e m ehelytt, csupn szakmai krniksknt rgztem: a
jelzett vltozsok kvetkeztben tovbb szklt az a kr, amelynek clja s
feladata m i n t e g y msfl vszzada a hazai fldkregnek a kor szintjn trtn
ismeretbvtse. Ebben a krben aligha kell hangslyozni, h o g y az j fldtani
ismeretek a kzvetlen gyakorlati felhasznls mellett az let s a gazdasg
hnyfle szfrjban, szintjn hasznosulhatnak. Miutn a magyar fldtan, tgabb
rtelemben a fldtudomny a globalizld vilgunkban - megfelel szakmai
rdekkpviselet hinyban - indokolhat szakmai slya alatt vesz rszt mind a
gazdasgi, m i n d a trsadalmi letben. A M O L - n l bekvetkezett vltozsok csak
m g feltnbb teszik ezt a szmomra rthetetlen folyamatot. Sajnlatos m d o n
a gazdasgi let egyik mrcje, a tzsde sem ltszik visszaigazolni a bekvet
kezett vltozsok indokoltsgt. Mieltt eleveznk ezekrl a n e m veszlytelen
1
Elhangzott a M F T 145. rendes kzgylsn
178 Fldtani Kzlny 130/2
vizekrl, n e m tudom megllni, hogy irigykedve m e g n e llaptsam: a szomszdos

Szlovkiban a K r n y e z e t v d e l m i Minisztriumhoz tartozan a szakma h r o m
fosztly terletn a minkkel egybe sem vethet sllyal kpviselt. E n n e k meg
felelen n e m odavetett fillrekbl gazdlkodva knyszerl szerny kutatsi ered
m n y e k e t felmutat projekteket mkdtetni. M i n d e n tovbbi rszletezs nlkl
csak az utbbi t v ltvnyos monografikus munkikra, j e l e n t s v o l u m e n
trkpkiadsaikra, komoly sznvonal angol nyelv folyirataikra k v n o m fel
hvni a figyelmet. N e m lehet csodlkozni azon, hogy a szlovk geolgia mltn
vlik egyre elismertebb n e m csak Eurpban, h a n e m Amerikban is. Elgondo
lsaik valamelyes ismeretben llthatom, h o g y tovbbi terveik is nagyra trek,
m e l y e k n e k pnzgyi fedezete is biztostottnak ltszik.
Hlgyeim s Uraim, remlem, megbocstjk n e k e m , hogy a M a g y a r h o n i Fld
tani Trsulat kzgylsn a szoksosnl kiss tbbet foglalkoztam szaki szom
szdunkkal, ahol a szmunkra is tanulsgos szervezeti felpts mellett okos s
kvetsre mlt szakmapolitika rvnyesl.
A Trsulat anyagi h e l y z e t n e k javtsa az elmlt v folyamn is szinte vala
m e n n y i elnksgi lsnek lland napirendi pontjt kpezte. A szmos elvi
lehetsg kzl az egyik a kltsgvetsi tmogatsbl val rszesedsnk n v e
lse. A M T E S Z tagszervezeteknt e h h e z a tmogatshoz a S z v e t s g e n keresztl
juthatunk. A tmogats elosztsrl mindenkor a Szvetsgi Tancs tbbsgi
szavazssal dnt. Ebbe a Tancsban a tagszervezetek mellett a M T E S Z megyei
terleti szervezetei is egy-egy kpviselt deleglnak. Az sszettelbl addik,
h o g y a tmogatsok korbban kialakult, a tagegyesletek szmra k e d v e z n e k
n e m n e v e z h e t r e n d j n e k m e g v l t o z t a t s a r d e k e k e t srt. K v e t k e z e t e s
magatartsunknak is rsze van abban, h o g y az elmlt vben sikerlt elrnnk,
h o g y a tagegyesletek rszesedst a Szvetsgi Tancs 20%-rl 30%-ra nvelje.
Trsulatunk esetben az ves sszeg azonban gy is csupn 4 1 4 eFt-ra rg. A
Szvetsgi Tancs llsfoglalsa szerint a tmogatsbl a j v b e n csak a kz
hasznsgot elnyert egyesletek rszesedhetnek.
r m m e l j e l e n t h e t e m a Tisztjt Kzgylsnek, h o g y az elmlt vi sokadik
alapszably-mdostsunkat kveten a Fvrosi Brsg Trsulatunkat vissza
m e n l e g e s hatllyal 1998. j a n u r l-jtl kiemelkeden k z h a s z n szervezett
minstette. A h h o z , h o g y a jvben is megfeleljnk e n n e k a minstsnek
szmos, itt n e m rszletezend k v e t e l m n y n e k kell megfelelnnk. Ebbl addik
egyebek mellett, hogy nvekszik az adminisztrci, hiszen csak e n n e k rvn
tehetjk a Trsulat m k d s t brki szmra ttekinthetv. M i n d e n r e n d s
rang szervezeti e g y s g n e k ltre kellett hoznia az egysg m k d s i rendjt,
mdjt m e g h a t r o z szervezeti s mkdsi szablyzatt.
A M a g y a r Fldtanrt Alaptvny s az M F T Ifjsgi Alaptvny esetben is fel
merlt a kzhasznsg rvnyestsnek krdse. A lass s n e m kltsgmentes
folyamat a z o n b a n arra ksztette az Elnksget, h o g y egyszerbb s kevsb
kltsges megoldst keressen. A MAFI jogsznak, dr. CSORBA Ibolynak kszn
h e t e n sikerlt is ilyet tallni. Ez azonban csak akkor valsulhat meg, ha a k z
gyls flhatalmazza az elnksget a szksges, a kzgyls sorn ksbb
ismertetend d n t s e k meghozatalra.
CSSZR G.: Ftitkri jelents az 1999. vrl 179
A k i e m e l k e d e n kzhaszn minstsnk birtokban krssel fordultunk a

Trsulat terleti szervezeteinek s szakosztlyainak vezetihez, h o g y keressk fel
a ltkrkben m k d , a fldtani tevkenysggel is foglakoz, vagy az ilyen
t e v k e n y s g irnt kell r z k e n y s g e t m u t a t profitorientlt g a z d l k o d
szervezeteket, s tjkoztassk ket a szmukra is k e d v e z m n y e s tmogatsi
lehetsgekrl. Sajnlattal kell jelentenem a Kzgylsnek, h o g y ez az akci
m i n d e n vrakozsunkat alulmlta. Mindssze a Dl-dunntli Terleti Szervezet
tudott tmogatst szerezni mkdsi kltsgk cskkentshez.
Az ltalnos helyzet ismertetsnl ltom clszernek i m m r o n harmadik
alkalommal is megemlteni, h o g y m g mindig nincs dnts a Trsulat ltal a
m k d s k h z kizrlagosan hasznlt terletek tulajdonlsa r d e k b e n a
Kincstri V a g y o n k e z e l I g a z g a t s g h o z b e n y j t o t t i g n y n k k r d s b e n ,
m i n t h o g y a M T E S Z F utcai szkhz plete alatti teleknek csak egy rszt
birtokolja a magyar llam, a msik rsze a II. kerleti nkormnyzat tulajdonban
van. M i u t n a t r v n y a l k o t k vrakozsval s z e m b e n v i s z o n y l a g kevs
trsadalmi szervezet nyjtotta be ignyt az ltala hasznlt ingatlan vonatkoz
rszre, jabb, a korbbiaknl is egyrtelmbben megfogalmazott trvny
szletett az ingatlanok mltnyos tulajdonlsnak elmozdtsa rdekben. lve
az 1999. vi CVII. rvny ltal felknlt lehetsggel, ignynket ptllag
2
kiterjesztettk az alagsorban raktrknt a Trsulat ltal hasznlt n h n y m - e s
terletre is. Az jabb trvny alapjn alapveten vltozott m e g a helyzet a
t u l a j d o n h o z j u t s t e k i n t e t b e n , hisz m i n d e n t e k i n t e t b e n m e g f e l e l n k a
t r v n y b e n megfogalmazottaknak. A n e h z h e l y z e t n k b e n n m i vigasszal
szolgl teht az a tudat, h o g y az ellenpropagandt figyelmen kvl hagyva azon
kevesek kz sorolhatjuk magunkat, akik az egyesletk rdekeit szeme eltt
tartva lni kvntak trvnyben biztostott lehetsgkkel.
Kiemelkeden kzhaszn tevkenysgnk
Az elz v h e z hasonlan 1999-ben is tbb pont tekintetben tettnk eleget a

kzhasznsg ltal tmasztott kvetelmnyeknek. E z e k sorban els h e l y e n kell
emlteni a tudomnyos tevkenysget s kutatst (03). A fldtudomny terletre
es kutatsi e r e d m n y e k kzkinccs ttelhez a Trsulat az eladi frumok
szles skljt biztostotta (lsd ksbb), a nyomdai ton trtn megjelen
tetskhz pedig a Trsulat folyirata llt ez vben is rendelkezsre.
A nevels s oktats, kpessgfejleszts, ismeretterjeszts (04) trgykrben
t e v k e n y s g n k alapveten az Oktatsi s Kzmveldsi Szakosztly szerve
zsben zajlott. Sikerknt knyvelhetjk el, h o g y a Mveldsgyi Minisztrium
elismerte a MFT-nek az oktatsgy terletn vllalt tevkenysgt, ami lehe
tsget teremt a tjkozdsra az oktatspolitikai vltozsok s az alkot
m h e l y e k b e n foly m u n k a tekintetben. Ennl azonban lnyegesebb eredmny,
h o g y a szakosztly kzoktatsi csoportvezetje minisztriumi felkrst kapott a
kerettantervek kidolgozsban trtn rszvtelre. Mindezzel azonban lesen
s z e m b e n ll az a kudarc, amelyet a Fldtani r k s g n k Egyeslettel kzsen
indtott k e z d e m n y e z s n k sorn szenvedtnk el. Ezt a mozgalmat a geol
ginak (fldtudomnynak) a kzoktatsba trtn megfelel rang visszalltsa
r d e k b e n indtottuk. A minisztriumtl kapott vlasz szerint a geolgia

kellkppen reprezentlt a fldrajz s ms trgyak keretben. A krdsben a
parlamentben interpelll LEZSK Sndor kpvisel r hasonl tartalm vlaszt
kapott rsban POKORNI Zoltn miniszter rtl.
Az elmlt v oktberi orszgos oktats-mdszertani konferencin eladssal
kpviseltette m a g t a szakosztly. Itt merlt fel a korbbiakat l n y e g e s e n
m e g h a l a d v o l u m e n regionlis s tematikus folyosi g y j t e m n y e k s
m z e u m o k ltrehozsnak ignye. A fent jelzett pnzgyi n e h z s g e k , tovbb
szemlyi vonatkozsok miatt alaposan m e g kell fontolnunk, szabad-e egyltaln
r l n n k a gondolatfelvetsnek. Emellett az elmlt v b e n is folytatdott a
kzoktatsi intzmnyek s iskolk svny-, kzet- s kvletgyjtemnyekkel
trtn elltsa.
A szakosztlytl indult el a fldtani rtkeink rtkminstsnek ignye m g
vekkel ez eltt. A krds egy ideje mr a Krnyezetvdelmi Minisztriumban is
n a p i r e n d e n van, ezrt Trsulatunk rmmel adott frumot a trgyban rintett,
v a g y p p e n elhivatott szakrtknek, akik alapos vitban trtk fel a krdskr
szmos vonatkozst s buktatjt.
Az O K S Z aktv rszvtele mellet zajlott le Hajdszoboszln az ltalnos iskols
dikok szmra rendezett Pvai Emlkverseny.
Az Unitrius s komenikus Ifjsgi N a p o k keretben kerlt sor a C r e m o ltal
kpviselt antidarwinista, antievolucionista szemllet r v r e n d s z e r n e k tudom
n y o s alapokon nyugv cfolatra. A r e n d e z v n y e n az O K S Z 6 tagja vllalt aktv
szerepet.
A n v e k v ignyre val tekintettel jra nyomtatsra kerlt FILEP Mikls
ltalnos iskolai geolgia tanknyve, s a kt ktetes Gelgiai Kislexikon lekto
rlsi munklatai is befejezshez kzelednek.
Az Ifj Szakemberek Anktjrl mr az elmlt vi j e l e n t s b e n bsgesen esett
sz.
A krnyezetvdelem (09) terletn sikeres e s e m n y n e k bizonyult az immron
m s o d i k alkalommal m e g r e n d e z e t t Orszgos Partfal Konferencia, a m e l y a
termszeti (fldtani) krnyezet s az e m b e r kapcsolatt volt hivatott bemutatni,
klns tekintettel az omlsveszlyes partfalakra: a szakszer krelhrtsra s a
krmegelzsre. A ksbb bekvetkezett Duna-menti partfalomlsok szomor
aktualitsukkal igazoljk vissza az ilyen tpus r e n d e z v n y e k indokoltsgt. Az
tlet kigondolja OSZVALD Tams megrdemli, hogy a neve itt is elhangozzk.
A fldtani termszetvdelem (8) terletn Trsulatunk vllalta magra a X.
Fldtani Termszetvdelmi Nap megrendezst, amelynek a Kiskunsgi Nemzeti
Park adott otthont. A Nemzeti Park hzigazdaknt gondoskodott a kt napos
terepbejrsrl is, amelyen kiemelt figyelmet kapott a Lpok s tzegek az
e m b e r s t e r m s z e t i k r n y e z e t e szolglatban." c m e n m e g i s m e r t elv s
gyakorlat, a m e l y e t a N e m z e t k z i T z e g Trsasg h i r d e t e t t m e g n h n y
vtizeddel korbban. A rendezvnyt, ahol szmos ifj szakember is bemutatta
trgybli e r e d m n y e i t , sikeres p l y z a t u n k alapjn a K r n y e z e t v d e l m i
Fejlesztsi Intzet pnzgyileg is tmogatta.
Az elmlt v folyamn plyzatot n y j t o t t u n k b e a K r n y e z e t v d e l m i
Minisztrium ltal meghirdetett KAC plyzatra. A zirci-medencei mezozoos
CSSZR : Ftitkri jelents az 1999. vrl 181
alapszelvnyek helyrelltst, illetve a Balaton s krnyezete fldtani jelleg

kutatsi e r e d m n y e i n e k bemutatst clz nyertes plyzatainkban foglalt
tevkenysg realizlsa ez vi feladat.
A hatron tli magyarsggal kapcsolatos tevkenysget (13) vek ta sikeresen
szervezi s koordinlja a M F T keretben ltrejtt H U N G E O , illetve a Trsulat
adminisztrcija. A t e v k e n y s g i r n y e l v e k n t s k e r e t l a H U N G E O
Tudomnyos Oktatsi programja szolgl. Az elmlt vben G E O ' 9 9 nven,
svnyi nyersanyagtelepek - gazdasg - kultra" cmmel kerlt lebonyoltsra
augusztus 1 8 - 2 3 . kztt Kelet-Szlovkiban s Krptaljn a szoksos vi
vndorrendezvny, amelyen 7 orszg 56 fldtudomnyi szakembere vett rszt,
kztk 20 haznkfia.
Itt is m e g k v n o m emlteni, h o g y tagtrsaink ltal adjuk 1%-kaknt
berkezett 698.890 Ft-ot A Magyarhoni Fldtani Trsulat harmadik flvszzada
c. kiadvny, valamint Trsulatunk Hrlevelnek kiadsra fordtottuk. Ezton is
szeretnm a M F T Elnksgnek hls ksznett tolmcsolni mindazoknak, akik
a szmtalan egyb indokolt lehetsg ellenre Trsulatunkat jelltk m e g
kedvezmnyezettjkknt.
A tagltszm alakulsa
A Trsulat sszestett tagltszma a december vgi adatok szerint 1208 f, ami

10 fvel kevesebb az egy vvel korbbi tagltszmnl, vagyis megllt az 1995. vi
visszaesst kveten jelentkezett lass, egyenletes nvekeds. Az alig vltoz
ltszmon bell azonban mr lnyegesebb bels trendezdst mutat az 1. bra.
Jelentsen cskkent az aktv tagok szma, amely 580 f, mikzben vltozatlan
maradt nyugdjas s regisztrlt" tagjaink szma. Aktv tagjaink szmnak
cskkenst m a j d n e m egszben kompenzlja dik tagjaink szmnak nveke
dse, amit, elssorban egyetemi oktat tagtrsaink cltudatos tevkenysgnek
k s z n h e t n k . Az sszestett ltszmcskkens m a j d n e m teljes e g s z b e n
megegyezik a krnkbl rkre eltvozott tagtrsaink szmval, amely 9 f volt,
n v szerint: BALOGH G y u l a , DOSZTLY Lajos, IKLDY Jzsef, K O C H Lszl, N A G Y
G z a , PRDY Mihly, PORDN Sndor, SZUROVY Gza, WALLACHER Lszl. Ez v
elejn h u n y t el OROSZLN Zoltn tagtrsunk. Valamennyik halla vesztesg
trsulatunk szmra, de klnsen az letk deln eltvozottak, mint kedves
kollgnk DOSZTLY Lajos s OROSZLN Zoltn. ldozzunk emlkknek 1
perces n m a felllssal.
A terleti szervezetek ltszmt s ltszm arnyt a 2., a szakosztlyok
ltszm arnyt a 3. bra mutatja. Ezek a korbbi vekben mr elemzett kphez
kpest n e m m u t a t n a k lnyeges vltozst.
A pnzgyi helyzet
Pnzgyi helyzetnkrl ezttal is csak ttekintleg kvnok szlni, kiemelve

mind a bevteli, mind a kiadsi oldal egy-egy sajtosnak, figyelmet keltnek tlt
oldalt. A szakszer elemzst a Gazdasgi Bizottsg jelentsben hallhatjk. A
bevtel forrsai a v o l u m e n cskken sorrendjben az albbiak voltak: egyb
1. bra. A Magyarhoni Fldtani Trsulat tagltszmnak alakulsa 1995-1999. kztt
2. bra. A Magyarhoni Fldtani Trsulat taglt

szmnak terleti szervezetenknti megoszlsa
1999-ben. Rvidtsek: ALF: Alfldi Terleti
Szervezet, BUD: Budapesti Terleti Szervezet,
DD: Dl-dunntli Terleti Szervezet, MO:
szak-magyarorszgi Terleti Szervezet, KD:
Kzp- s szak-dunntli Terleti Szervezet
tmogats ( b e v t e l e i n k n e k m a j d n e m a fele), j o g i tagdj (a b e v t e l 1/5-e),

r e n d e z v n y e k e r e d m n y e , egyni tagdj, tagtrsaink adjnak 1%-a (bevteleink
5,6 % - a ) , klfldi jogi szemly tmogatsa, hazai jogi szemly tmogatsa,
kamatbevtel s nll kiadvnyok rbevtele. Kln rm szmunkra, h o g y az
1998. vi 5 4 5 eFt-tal s z e m b e n az elmlt v b e n 699 eFt folyt be tagtrsaink
adjnak 1%-bl. Legfontosabb tmogatinknak: a M O L Rt.-nek, a Coastal Oil
& G a s C o . - n a k , a P r m a g z Rt.-nek, a G e o i n f o r m Kft.-nek, a M e c s e k r c
K r n y e z e t v d e l m i Rt.-nek s tagtrsainknak ez ton is tolmcsolni szeretnm a
Trsulat E l n k s g n e k hljt s ksznett, amirt tmogatsukkal r d e m b e n
jrultak hozz Trsulatunk mkdkpessgnek fenntartshoz. Sajnos,
CS/isz/R G,; Ftitkri jelents az 1999. vrl 183
3. bra. A Magyarhoni Fldtani Trsulat

tagltszmnak tudomnyos szakosztlyon
knti megoszlsa 1999-ben. Rvidtsek: ASz:
Agyagsvnytani Szakosztly, AFSz: Altalnos
Fldtani Szakosztly, GSz: svnytan-
Geokmiai Szakosztly, GSzSz: Geomatematikai
s Szmtstechnikai Szakosztly, MKSz: Mr
nkgeolgiai s Krnyezetfldtani Szakosztly,
RSz: Oslnytani-Rtegtani Szakosztly, TSz:
Tudomnytrtneti Szakosztly, OKSz: Oktatsi
s Kzmveldsi Szakosztly
tudjuk, h o g y ebben az vben mr n e m mindegyikktl szmthatunk tmo

gatsra.
Kiadsaink sorban els helyen kell emlteni a nyomdai kltsget, a m e l y 4.366
eFt-ra rgott. E n n e k d n t h n y a d t (3.740 e F t - o t ) a F l d t a n i K z l n y
n y o m t a t s a emsztette fel, amelynek a korbbi vrl t h z d szmljval
egytt az elmlt vben 6 fzetnek n y o m d a i kltsgeit kellett kifizetnnk. Ez
egyttal azt is jelenti, h o g y hossz id utn az elmlt v volt az els, amelyben
m i n d a n g y fzet megjelent, mgpedig n e m sszevont szmknt. Mindannyi
u n k r m r e M A R O S Gyula titkr s Z I M M E R M A N N Katalin gyvezet titkr
lankadatlan b u z g a l m n a k k s z n h e t e n az elmlt v e k sorn megjult kl
l e m m e l , formtumban s n e m utols sorban nvs tartalommal j e l e n t m e g a
Hrlevl, amely vi 5 alkalommal tjkoztat b e n n n k e t a Trsulat bels letrl,
eljvend programjainkrl. Termszetesen, e n n e k is ra van. Az elmlt vi
s z m o k nyomtatsi kltsge 488 eFt-ot tett ki. A fentiekhez kpest szernyebb
sszeget emsztett fel az alapszably s a kzgylsi m e g h v n y o m d a i kltsge.
A kltsg rovatban kzel azonos v o l u m e n t kpvisel a posta kltsg (1.404 eFt)
s a M T E S Z tagdj (1.339 eFt). A kzel msfl millis posta kltsg lttn reml
h e t l e g megrtssel fogadjk tagtrsaink azon krsnket, h o g y aki teheti,
s z e m l y e s e n vegye fel a Trsulatnl a Fldtani Kzlny egyes szmait, cskkent
ve ezzel a tetemes postakltsget. Jelents segtsg, h o g y a n a g y o b b i n t z m n y e k
m a g u k g o n d o s k o d n a k a f z e t e k n e k d o l g o z i k h o z t r t n eljuttatsrl.
K l n s e n fjdalmas szmunkra az a tny, h o g y az elmlt v b e n tbb mint 50
k l d e m n y n k e t hozta vissza a posta, mert a tagtrsaink n e m vettk fel azokat.
Rszvteli djas r e n d e z v n y e i n k sorbl - pnzgyi e r e d m n y e i t tekintve -
els h e l y e n kell megemlteni A m a geolgija a holnaprt cmen szerepelt lst
kell kiemelni, ahol 1.182 eFt volt az eredmny. E n n e k a sikernek szmos kovcsa
volt. E z e k sorbl taln az egsz r e n d e z v n y fszervezjt, H A L M A I Jnost
e m e l n m ki. Sikeresnek volt m o n d h a t a I I . Orszgos Partfal Konferencia (393 eFt
bevtel) s a Fldtani Termszetvdelmi N a p is (234 eFt bevtel). Szerny 100 eFt-

ot tlt m e g Trsulatunknak az eredmnybl a M a g y a r Geofizikai Egyeslet
Elnksge a kzs vndorgyls hozambl. Gyakorlatilag nullszalds volt a
G E O ' 9 9 r e n d e z v n y (Ukrajna s Krptalja fldtani bemutatsa) s az slnytani
V n d o r g y l s . A fentiekkel s z e m b e n 433 eFt h i n n y a l zrult az Eurpai
G e o l g u s o k Szvetsgnek budapesti munkabizottsgi lse, tekintettel arra,
h o g y e b b e n s s z e r v e z e t b e n m i n d i g a v e n d g l t k fedezik a v e n d g e k
tartzkodsi kltsgt. A jelenlegi adottsgaink s tagdj ktelezettsgnk mellett
megfontolst rdemel tagsgunk vagy tagsgunk jelenlegi formjnak fenn
tartsa.
Az elmlt vben is fizetni tudtuk az albbi tagsgi djakat: Eurpai svnytani
U n i ( E M U - 80 E U R ) , Eurpai Geolgusok Szvetsge (EFG - 362 E U R ) ,
N e m z e t k z i svnytani Asszocici (IMA - 40 U S D ) , az Eurpai Fldtani
Trsulatok Asszocicija (AEGS - 2x200 U S D ) s fizettk az E u r o p e a n Geologist
folyirat elfizetsi djt is (17 eESP). A fenti tagsgi s elfizetsi djnak, sajnos,
csak szernyebb rszt (200 U S D ) sikerlt plyzat tjn biztostani.
Minimlis kltsget fordtottunk a L e n g y e l Fldtani Trsulattal polt j
kapcsolataink megnyilvnulsaknt rtkelhet klcsns szakember cserre,
amelyre m i n d e n k o r a vndorgylsek idejn szokott sor kerlni. 1999-ben a
lengyel hzigazdk O L H Ibolya tagtrsunkat, a K z p - s szak-Dunntli
Terleti Szervezet titkrt fogadtk. A M F T v e n d g e pedig Andzrej PAULO, a
Lengyel Fldtani Trsulat alelnke volt.
Az elmlt vben teht a 12.522 eFt bevtellel s z e m b e n 13.519 eFt kiads llt,
vagyis az vet 1 MFt-os hinnyal zrtuk. Az inflci ellenre is vrhatan
kisebbek lesznek a kiadsaink a tavalyinl. A j v vi kltsgvets mindenesetre
tbb mint 5 MFt-tal kevesebb bevtellel szmol. M k d k p e s s g n k fenn
tartsa szigor takarkossgot ignyel. Nagyon fontos teht, h o g y m i n d e n tag
trsunk keresse a pnzgyi forrsok lehetsgt, s tjkoztassa az elnksget, ha
a leghalvnyabb jelt ltja annak, h o g y a Trsulat megfelel lpsek megttele
esetn tmogatshoz juthat. Varzsvesszs vzkutat tagtrsunk m r van, j
l e n n e tudni, forrsvizek mellett pnzforrsok feltrsra n e m alkalmas-e az ltala
hasznlt eszkz. Komolyra fordtva a szt, a pnzforrsok felkutatsnl n e m
csak - s taln n e m is elssorban - adomnyokra gondolunk, h a n e m trsulati
munkavllalsra is, mint amelyekre pldt a fentiekben emltettem. M i n d e n
esetre, ebben a n e h z idszakban, amikor a Trsulat n e h z s g e i h tkrkpt
adjk tagjai tbbsge letkrlmnyeinek, klnsen m e g b e c s l e n d m i n d e n
fajta nzetlen trsadalmi segtsg. Ebbl mutattak j pldt az ELTE II. ves
geolgus hallgati, akik a M F T kiadvny raktrban trtsmentesen raktak
r e n d e t . M e g r d e m l i k , h o g y k s z n e t k p p e n n e v k e t a ftitkri j e l e n t s
megrktse: B E N K Zsolt, Kocsis Lszl, M I K E S Tams. Tovbbi pldaknt
e m l t h e t TARNAI Tams n e v e , aki a S E M S E Y A n d o r p l y z a t r a b e k l d t t
p l y a m u n k j n elnyert plyadjt felajnlotta a Trsulat szmra. N e m a pnz
gyi fejezethez tartozik ugyan de az elktelezett hozzllsnak szp pldjt
mutatta G A L C Z Andrs tagtrsunk is, aki amikor vilgoss vlt, h o g y az j
alapszably szerint az ellenrzbizottsgi tagsg sszefrhetetlen a vlasztmnyi
tagsggal, s az ellenrzbizottsgi tagsgt kvnta felszmolni, az Elnksg
krsre sz nlkl mondott le vlasztmnyi tagsgrl, amit ha n e m tesz meg,

rendkvli kzgylst kellett volna sszehvni.
Rendezvnyek
R e n d e z v n y e k b e n az elmlt v b e n sem s z k l k d t n k . K z t t k jeles

r e n d e z v n y e k m i n d a kzponti szervezsek, m i n d a terlet s szakosztlyi
r e n d e z v n y e k k z t t egyarnt akadnak. A k o r b b a n m r ismertetett
rendezvnyekre az albbiakban csak hivatkozni kvnok.
Kzponti rendezvnyek
Az els kzponti szervezs rendezvnyre mjus 18-n kerlt sor. A vitafrum

cml e g y a l a p k r d s kerlt megfogalmazsra: Alkalmas-e az v e g h u t a i
telephely radioaktv hulladkok elhelyezsre? A vita, mint ahogy a korbbiak
ban is hossz volt, de n e m mentes a szenvedlyes llsfoglalsoktl. Remlt
cljt, vagyis, h o g y elfogultsgtl, parcilis rdekektl s egyttal indokol
hatatlan s z e n v e d l y e s m e g n y i l v n u l s o k t l m e n t e s e n prbljk m e g az
rintettek s az rdekldk megfogalmazni a vlt vagy vals ellentmondsokat,
s kzsen keresni a megolds nyilvnvalan n e m egyedl dvzt mdjt,
n e m sikerlt. M r akkor is tudni lehetett, azta pedig nyilvnvalv vlt, h o g y ez
a mltatlan kezelsi m d egyik flnek sem vlt hasznra, mg a tgabb szakma
egyrtelmen megsnylette azt.
Jelents e s e m n y k n t kell e l k n y v e l n n k a mjus 2 6 - 2 8 - a kztt m e g
rendezett I I . Orszgos Partfal Konferencit, a m e l y n e k 123 rsztvevje volt. A
r e n d e z v n y slyt elssorban a b b a n ltom, h o g y tagtrsaink n e m sajt
m a g u k n a k adtak tjkoztatst, h a n e m a krdskrben rintettek szles krnek,
ami jl illeszkedik abba az elgondolsba, h o g y a geolgit el kell vinni mind
azokba a krkbe, ahol a geolgiai ismeretek haszna megmutatkozhat.
Az Eurpai G e o l g u s o k szvetsgnek 36. elnksgi s tancslsre - jnius
1 8 - 2 0 . kztt - els alkalommal kerlt sor kelet-eurpai orszgban. A rendez
v n y e n rszt vett 15 orszg kpviselinek megllaptsai egybe c s e n g e n e k a fent
elmondottakkal, kiegsztve azzal, h o g y a szakmai ismereteket az oktatsba s
nevelsbe is be kell pteni, gy lehet eslynk arra, h o g y krnyezettudatos
genercik n j e n e k fel.
A m a geolgija a holnaprt cmen megrendezett nemzetkzi konferencia kt
krdst, a radioaktv hulladkok elhelyezsvel kapcsolatos gondokat, ill. a
felsznalatti vizek v d e l m n e k krdst lltotta reflektorfnybe. E z e k kezelse
mr m a is k o m o l y gondot okoz, s a jvben m g tovbb slyosbodik. A
r e n d e z v n y sikerhez a hazai szakemberek mellett az albbi tmogatk is
hozzjrultak: M a g y a r Tudomnyos Akadmia, a Magyar Atomenergia gynk
sg, a M e c s e k r c K r n y e z e t v d e l m i Rt., az Orszgos Mszaki Fejlesztsi
Bizottsg, a Paksi Atomerm Rt. s a Public Agency for Radioactive Waste
Management.
A G E 0 ' 9 9 kelet-szlovkiai s krptaljai vndor rendezvnye augusztus 18-23.
kztt zajlott le.
rdekes s hasznos tletnek tnik a Geolgus-Geofizikus-Bnysz Vllalkozk

Klubjnak szeptember 6-n trtnt letre hvsa.
A geolgusok szmra kiss drgnak bizonyult a Bnyszati Krkp '99 cmen
a M a g y a r Geofizikusok Egyeslete ltal Zalakaroson szeptember 2 9 - 3 0 - n szer
vezett kzs vndorgyls, ezrt ltogatottsga elmaradt az elz vi mgtt. A
vndorgylshez egy ktnapos szlovniai s egy egynapos keszthelyi-hegysgi
terepi kirnduls tartozott, a ltnivalhoz mrt szerny rszvtel mellett.
A X. Fldtani Termszetvdelmi Nap Bugacon kerlt megrendezsre oktber
14-16-n.
Terleti szervezetek rendezvnyei
Az albbiakban itt s a szakosztlyoknl ismertetsre kerl szmok kzl a

rsztvevkre s a az eladsok szmra vonatkoz adatok az esetek nagyobbik
rszben n e m egyeznek a bekld szervezet adataival, mert az sszevethetsg
r d e k b e n a kzs rendezvnyek esetn a vonatkoz szmokat elosztottam a
trsrendezk szmval. Az egyes szakosztlyok s terleti szervezetek aktivi
tsrl az utbbi kt vekben mr megszokott diagramokbl (4-10. bra) kapha
t u n k kpet. Ezek a fent jelzett m d o n nyert adatokat s azokbl kpzett viszony
szmokat tartalmaznak - helykmls cljbl klnsebb magyarzat nlkl.
Az Alfldi Terleti Szervezet hagyomnyosan a legaktvabb szervezetek kz
tartozik. Ezttal is imponlak a szmaik: 7 rendezvny, 179 fs sszestett
ltogatval, 32 eladssal (4-6. bra). Legsikeresebb rendezvnyei: A kolaj- s
fldgzbnyszat kihvsai az vezred kszbn" s a X. Fldtani Termszet
vdelmi Nap voltak. A Geoinform Kft. jvoltbl pnzgyi helyzete eddig a
legstabilabb volt. Tudomsom szerint a jvben, sajnos, n e m szmthatnak
korbbi mecnsukra.
A Budapesti Terleti Szervezet vltozatlanul a legnagyobb ltszm terleti
szervezet, amely a rendezvnyek szmt tekintve tlagosnak tekinthet, de az
eladsok szma s a rsztvevk szma tekintetben ezttal sincs arnyban a
regisztrlt tagjainak szmval (2., 4., 5. bra), ami azt jelenti, h o g y tagjainak
jelents rsze valsznleg Budapesthez ktttsge miatt jellte m e g a Budapesti
Terleti Szervezetet. Kzttk pl. sok a dik. Rendezvnyei kivtel nlkl tudo
m n y o s tmval foglalkoznak, amely az utbbi vekben csak kivtelesen volt
k p e s nagyobb tmeget megmozgatni.
A legkisebb ltszm terleti szervezet a Dl-dunntli, mindssze 82 taggal
(2. bra). Aktivitsuk n e m ltszik sszefggsben lenni kis tagltszmukkal. Sok
tekintetben tlagon felli rtkekkel bszklkedhetnek. A terleti szervezetek
kztt a regisztrlt tagltszmra vettett rendezvny ltogatottsg nluk volt a
legmagasabb (8. bra). Az v folyamn jelents szerepet jtszottak A ma
geolgija a holnaprt" konferencia megszervezsben s fknt a kirnduls
lebonyoltsban.
Az szak-magyarorszgi Terleti Szervezet tlagos vet zrt. Valsznleg n e m
vletlen, h o g y legltogatottabb rendezvnye a hollhzai tanulmnyt volt,
a m e l y e n 43 tagtrsunk vett rszt. Meglepen kevs szakembert vonzott a recski
ALF BUD DD MO KD AS LF SG GSZ MKE OKK SR TUT
4. bra. A terleti szervezetek s tudomnyos szakosztlyok 1999. vi rendezvnyeinek szma.

Rvidtsek: ALF: Alfldi Terleti Szervezet, BUD: Budapesti Terleti Szervezet, DD: Dl-dunntli
Terleti Szervezet, MO: szak-magyarorszgi Terleti Szervezet, KD: Kzp- s szak-dunntli
Terleti Szervezet, AAS: Agyagsvnytani Szakosztly, ALF: ltalnos Fldtani Szakosztly, SG:
svnytan-Geokmiai Szakosztly, GSZ: Geomatematikai s Szmtstechnikai Szakosztly, MKE:
Mrnkgeolgiai s Krnyezetfldtani Szakosztly, SR: slnytani-Rtegtani Szakosztly, TUT:
Tudomnytrtneti Szakosztly, OKK: Oktatsi s Kzmveldsi Szakosztly
mlyszinti rcvagyonrl meghirdetett eladls, a m i n e k oka az lehet, hogy az

rcvagyon sorsa mr akkor is egyre remnyt el enebbnek ltszott.
A Kzp- s szak-dunntli Terleti Szervezet az elmlt vben 4 rendezvnyt
tartott, amelyek kzl kiugran a legsikeresebb a 180 fs ltogatottsg Dsztk
Konferencia volt. Tovbbi rendezvnyeik irnt mutatkoz szernyebb rdeklds
ellenre is imponlak az sszestett statisztikai adataik ( 4 - 2 0 bra).
Tudomnyos szakosztlyok rendezvnyei
A szakosztlyok sorban az egyik legkisebb ltszm (3. bra) az Agyagsvny

Szakosztly, amelynek az elmlt vben kt rendezvnye volt. A kevs szm
r e n d e z v n y s eladsszm ellenre a szakosztly a nemzetkzi letben 1999-ben
is hallatta hangjt.
Az Altalnos Fldtani Szakosztly az elmlt vben is a legnagyobb ltszm (3.
bra) s z a k o s z t l y n a k bizonyult. A 8 r e n d e z v n y v e l , 2 0 7 fs sszestett
ltogatottsgval az egyik legsikeresebb szakosztlyunk volt ( 4 - 5 . bra). Kln
kiemelhet rendezvnyk a Periadriai lineamens szerepvel foglalkozott, ahol 45
fs hallgatsg kvette n y o m o n az eladsokat.
Eladlseire a legtbb ltogatt (262 f) az svnytan-Geokmiai Szak
osztly toborzott (5. bra). Egyb paramterek tekintetben is a legsikeresebb
szakosztlynak bizonyult: 10 rendezvny, 49 elads s poszter (4. s 6. bra), stb.
Nmi szubjektivitssal n a legsikeresebb rendezvnyknek a Poszterfesztivlt
300
I
11
250
200
Il
|i i ! ii 1
! 1
150
i ! ! _ !
il IVI
100
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ALF
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BUD DED EMO KED AAS ALF ASG GSZ MKE OKK OSR TUT
1:1t
5. bra. A terleti szervezetek s tudomnyos szakosztlyok 1999. vi rendezvnyei rsztvevinek
sszltszma. Rvidtseket Id. a 4. brnl
tekintem, ahol 2 4 , rszben nemzetkzileg is megmrettetett, sznvonalas posztert

vonultattak fel.
Egyetlen r e n d e z v n y v e l (4. bra), kis hallgatsgval (5. bra) a G e o m a t e -
matikai Szakosztly szerny vet tudhat m a g a mgtt, ami 129 fs tagsg mellett
n e h e z e n rtelmezhet.
A M r n k g e o l g i a i s K r n y e z e t f l d t a n i S z a k o s z t l y r e n d e z v n y e i n e k
nagyobbik h n y a d t ltalban terletei szervezetekkel v a g y Trsulatunkon
kvli szervezetekkel kzsen rendezi, ezrt a viszonylag jelents ltogatottsg
1
1
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1iI i 1! I
I
ALF
(1 I1
111
1 ., II
1,1U 1
6. bra. A terleti szervezetek s tudomnyos szakosztlyok 1999. vi rendezvnyein elhangzott
eladsok sszestett szma. Rvidtseket Id. a 4. brnl
CSISZR G.: Ftitkri jelents az 1999. vrl 189
1!
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7. bra. A terleti szervezetek s tudomnyos szakosztlyok 1999. vi rendezvnyeire es rsztvevk

tlaga (Z rsztvevk/rendezvny). Rvidtseket Id. a 4. brnl
az elejn jelzett szmtsi m d alapjn kapott rtkekben csak kzepes rtket

m u t a t (4-10. bra). Legsikeresebb r e n d e z v n y k a 42 fs rszvtellel az
Eurocenter-buda alapozsi munklatainak megtekintse cmen meghirdetett
terepszemle volt, ahol kt elads segtette rtelmezni a ltvnyt.
Az Oktatsi s Kzmveldsi Szakosztly tevkenysgrl m r korbban
b s g e s e n esett sz. Az brkon szerepl rtkek, k l n s e n a kalkullt
v i s z o n y s z m o k k i e m e l k e d rtkeket m u t a t n a k ( 4 - 2 0 . bra), a m i e g y kis
ltszm, de n a g y o n aktv szakosztlyt jelent. Ugyanakkor hozz kell tennem,
h o g y b i z o n y o s t e k i n t e t b e n az adatok n e m t n n e k s s z e v e t h e t n e k ms
szakosztlyok adataival, amennyiben itt a trgykrbl addan a dikok is b e n n e
foglaltatnak a rsztvevi ltszmban.
Az slnytani Szakosztly tbb mutat tekintetben is kiugr rtkekkel
bszklkedhet. A posztereket is beleszmtva nluk a legnagyobb az eladsok
szma (53 - 6. bra). Kiugran j az egy rendezvnyre es tlagolt rszvteli szm
(7. bra) s az egy rendezvnyre es eladsszm is (20. bra). Az egy eladsra
vettett rsztvevszm viszont nluk a legalacsonyabb (2, 8-9. bra). Mltn
legsikeresebb r e n d e z v n y k a noszvaji slnytani Vndorgyls volt, ahol 14
eladst hallgatott m e g s 42 posztert tekintett m e g az 52 fs rsztvevi kr.
A Tudomnytrtneti Szakosztly nagy szm (9) rendezvnyre 207 fs
hallgatsgot vonultatott fel (4. s 5. bra). A legkedvezbb mutatt rt el a
tagltszmra vettett rsztvev szm tekintetben: tagltszmnak 2,1 szerest
tudta m e g m o z g a t n i (8. bra).
lland Bizottsgok
M i u t n a ciklus els kt ve az alapszably lland mdostsnak jegyben

telt, 1999. folyamn az Alapszably s gyrendi Bizottsg tevkenysgt a
4
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ALF i
. 1 ,
BUD DED EMO KED AAS A L F ASG GSZ MKE OKK OSR TUT
1 - 1
8. bra. A terleti szervezetek s tudomnyos szakosztlyok 1999. vi rendezvnyein a nluk

regisztrlt tagltszmra vettett sszestett rsztvevk szma (Z rsztvevk/regisztrlt tag).
Rvidtseket Id. a 4. brnl.
n e v b e n jelzett m s o d i k k r d s k r r e koncentrlhatta. Sajt g y r e n d j n e k kidol

gozsa mellett - legalbb ellenrzs s tancsads szintjn - rsze volt gy
szlvn v a l a m e n n y i trsulati szervezet s bizottsg g y r e n d j n e k kialaktsban.
R e m l h e t l e g a Bizottsg e g y n y u g a l m a s a b b ciklus el n z .
9. bra. A terleti szervezetek s tudomnyos szakosztlyok 1999. vi rendezvnyein elhangzott

sszes eladsra vettett rsztvevk szma (Z rsztvevk/E regisztrlt tag). Rvidtseket Id. a 4.
brnl.
ALF BUD DD MO KD AS LF SG QSZ MKE OKK SR
10. bra. A terleti szervezetek s tudomnyos szakosztlyok 1999. vi rendezvnyeire vettett

eladsszm (L eladsszm/E eladlsszm). Rvidtseket Id. a 4. brnl
Az Ellenrz Bizottsg mind az elmlt vben, m i n d a ciklus m e g e l z kt

v b e n - k p l e t e s e n szlva - rajta tartotta k e z t a Trsulat t e r n s
szrevtelvel, javaslataival - esetenknt aggodalmnak kifejezsre juttatsval
segtette el a n n a k kiegyenslyozottabb, formailag is megfelelbb mkdst.
Mint hallani fogjuk, n e m alaptalannak, de kiss pesszimistnak tartja a j v vi
kltsgvetst, mindamellett tgondolt reformokat javasol a pnzgyi helyzet
stabilabb ttelhez. Ebben szerepel a tagdj emelse s a Fldtani K z l n y
sztosztsi r e n d j n e k mdostsa, illetve rnak emelse is.
A Fegyelmi s Etikai Bizottsg - m i n d a n n y i u n k megelgedsre - az elmlt
vben ismt m u n k a n l k l i n e k bizonyult. M e g e l z e n a h r o m ves cikluson
bell volt ugyan gyk", de a Bizottsg - joggal - illetktelennek nyilvntotta
magt a felmerlt krdsben.
r m m e l szlok a Fldtani Kzlny Szerkesztbizottsgnak tevkenysgrl,
amely - az elz bizottsggal szemben - a ciklus egyetlen v b e n sem maradt
m u n k a nlkl. Az elmlt vben lezrult az a folyamat, amely a Fldtani Kzlny
szerny formai frisstsn tlmenen, amelyrl m r az elmlt vben rszletesen
szmot adtam, a korbbi rovatok visszalltst, a szerzk szmra kszlt
tmutat szigorbb ttelt, ezen bell a bibliogrfiai krdsek egyrtelmbb s
szigorbb ttelt is jelentette. sztnzte az MTA t u d o m n y o s bizottsgait,
h o g y a m e g k e z d e t t helyesrsi revzis t e v k e n y s g t gyorstsa fel a n n a k
rdekben, h o g y a szakmai folyiratokban s egyb kiadvnyokban tallhat
rsmd-kavalkdot llsfoglalsval segtse felszmolni.
A bizottsg l e g n a g y o b b e r e d m n y n e k tartom, h o g y az elmlt 3 vben sikerlt
ledolgozni" a kt s fl ves elmaradst, s hossz id utn 1999. volt az az v,
amikor a folyiratnak m i n d a 4 szma a trgyven bell megjelent. A lemarads
felszmolst azzal is tansthatom, h o g y az ez vi els fzet i d k z b e n
megrkezett, s a k e d v e s kollgk a sznetben Trsulatunk napszmosainl"
felvehetik. r m m e l j e l e n t h e t e m egyttal a Tisztelt Kzgylsnek, h o g y nincs

s z k b e n a Fldtani Kzlny kzlsre sznt cikkekben. Br az egyes fzetek
terjedelmt lthat m d o n megnveltk, kiss rossz a Bizottsg szjze, mert
p p e n a cikk-bsg kvetkeztben m g gy is jval hosszabb a vrakozs az
indokoltnl. A j e l e n l e g i p n z g y i h e l y z e t b e n n e m k v n o k fejtegetsekbe
bocstkozni a megoldsi mdokat illeten. Tisztem viszont, h o g y ezen a frumon
is m e g k s z n j e m a S z e r k e s z t b i z o t t s g v a l a m e n n y i t a g j n a k a korrekt,
ldozatksz munkjt, amivel elsegtettk a jelenlegi helyzet ltrejttt. N v
szerint is ki kell e m e l n e m PIROS Olga technikai szerkesztt, aki a m u n k a
oroszlnrszt vgezte, s aki nlkl ma aligha oszthatnnk szt az ez vi els
szmot. H a s o n l m d o n ksznet illeti KRIVNN HORVTH g n e s trdel
szerkesztt, aki a megnvelt oldal s pldnyszmot a kvnt formba nttte.
N a g y krds, lesz-e elg munci ahhoz, h o g y a trsulati let leginkbb lthat
szimblumt jelent Fldtani Kzlny a j v b e n is hasonl rendszeressggel
j e l e n h e s s e n meg. A jelenlegi, illetve a megvlasztand j kollektvn val
sznleg n e m fog mlni.
H A L M A I J n o s Bizottsgi e l n k j e l e n t s e a l a p j n s z l n o m kell m g a
N e m z e t k z i Kapcsolatok Bizottsgnak tevkenysgrl. Az e l n k gy rzi, n e m
kapott olyan feladatot, a m e l y az elnki jogkr bizottsg mkdtetst indokolta
volna, a felmerlt ignyeket a birtokban lv adatokbl elgtette ki. A fentiek
alapjn javasolja a bizottsg sszettelnek megvltoztatst, ahol az elnki
tisztsget a Trsulat elnke vagy valamelyik trselnke tlthetn b e , a bizottsg
tagjai p e d i g a k l n b z n e m z e t k z i s z e r v e z e t e k h a z a i k p v i s e l i b l
llhatnnak. ly m d o n a nemzetkzi gyek rvid ton r e n d e z h e t k l e n n n e k .
Javaslatait az elnksg, nyilvn m e g fogja fontolni.
V g e z e t l a lekszn Elnksg s egyttal a m a g a m n e v b e n m e g k s z n m
a Trsulat k t napszmosnak, ZIMMERMANN Katalin gyvezet titkrnak s
S I M O N Edit gazdasgi eladnak azt a fradhatatlan s a sz szoros rtelmben
ldozatos munkjt, a m e l y nlkl a Trsulat egyszeren n e m ltezne. N e m
tudom, m e l y i k e l d n k n e k sikerlt ket fanatizlni, de llthatom, mestere
lehetett a mfajnak, mert k m r megvalstottk VADSZ professzor szlligjt,
a m e l y szerint a lehetetlen krsek megoldsra is csupn egy kis idt krnek.
Tisztelettel k r e m a Tisztelt Kzgylst, h o g y a ftitkri jelentst elfogadni

szveskedjk.
Bevezet szavak
A ma geolgija a holnaprt"
cm konferencin elhangzott eladsok el
A Tudomny Vilgkonferencijhoz kapcsoldan - a Magyarhoni Fldtani

Trsulat s z e r v e z s b e n - a fenti c m m e l kerlt m e g r e n d e z s r e az a k o n f e r e n c i a ,
a m e l y a k v e t k e z v s z z a d kt k i e m e l k e d trsadalmi-gazdasgi j e l e n t s g
k r d s k r t , a felsznalatti v i z e k llapotnak, tisztasguk m e g r i z h e t s g n e k ,
v a l a m i n t az e g y r e s z a p o r o d s e g y r e j e l e n t s e b b v e s z l y f o r r s k n t m e g j e l e n
r a d i o a k t v h u l l a d k o k e l h e l y e z s n e k gondjait lltotta k z p p o n t b a . A r e n d e z
v n y r l HALMAI J . tollbl a F l d t a n i K z l n y 1 2 9 / 3 . f z e t n e k 4 5 1 - 4 5 3 . oldaln
n y e r h e t r s z l e t e s e b b tjkoztat. Az ott e l h a n g z o t t e l a d s o k e g y r s z e az Acta
G e o l o g i c a H u n g a r i c a 4 3 / 2 . fzetben, n h n y tovbbi p e d i g j e l e n fzetben - az
albbiakban - olvashat.
A konferencin elhangzott eladsok:
Jnius 21
Plenris ls
BRca, I.: Opening address

T T H , J.: The key improvements in aquifer protection: analytical hydrogeology
RYBACH, L.: Geologic disposal of radioctive waste sustainability
CUSTODIO, E . : Functioning of groundwater-dependent wetlands
ZIJL, W , TRYKOZKO, A.: Flow systems analysis and homogenization for aquifer protection
THURY, M.: Waste, host rocks, repository concepts and the role of geology
IKS, .: Repositories for high-level radioactive waste in crystalline rocks, geological key questions
A szekci: Geological aspects of radioactive waste disposal
ORMAI, R , FRIGYESI, F.: Status of low and intermediate level radioactive waste repository programme
in Hungary
BALLA, Z . : Geological exploration for low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal in
Hungary
TTH, Gy., HORVTH, I.: Hydrodinamics and hydrogeochemistry of the Mrgy Granite Complex
MAROS, Gy., PALOTS, ., RUSCH-FELGENHAUER, E.: Tectonic evaluation of the Mrgy Granite with
Imageo Mobile Corescan System
KOVCS, L., CSICSK, J., BERTA, Z S . : Main results of the qualification programme of the Boda Siltstone
Formation
HMOS, G . - FOLDING, G. - MAJOROS, Gy. - KONRD, Gy.: T h e role of geological research in the
qualification programme of the Boda Siltstone Formation
RKAI, P , BALOGH, ., DEMNY, A., FRIZS, I., MTH, Z . , NAGY, G.: Study of composition, diagenetic and
post-diagenetic alterations of the albitic Boda Siltstone Formation
CHIKN, G.: The role of geological mapping in radioctive waste disposal in Hungary
szekci: Protection of subsurface aquifers

SCHNEIDER, J . F.: Sustainable development, use and protection of aquifers
VARSNYI, I., -Kovcs, L., MATRAY, J. M : Separation of water flow sytems based on chemical and
isotopic composition of subsurface water in the Great Plain, Hungary
KOMATINA, M , KOMATINA, S.: Groundwater protection at the Karst terrains of Serbia (Yugoslavia)
GABRIEL, W. J . , MASON, J. M , SIEGEL, D. I.: Multidisciplinary techniques for aquifer evaluation in a
karstic setting and implications for resource development - a case study
CAMPOS, H.: Applied groundwater modelling in the Botucatu aquifer system, Brazil
MARTON, L., SZANYI, J . : Interaction of deep and near-surface groundwaters in a Leaky aquifer system
Junius 22
A szekci: Geological aspects of radioactive waste disposal
BREWITZ, W : Longterm safety of underground radioactive waste repositories - key issue for research
and development
BODVARSSON, G. S.: Geological consideration for the flow and transport model of Yucca Mountains,
Nevada
D E CRAEN, M . , DELLEUZE, D., VOLCKAERT, G., SNEYERS, . , , M . : U - T h series disequilibrium studies on
Boom Clay, a natural analogue of radionuclide migration in argillaceous sediments
BIRKHUSER, E , ROTH, E , NEUF, H., STAMPFLI, G.: Application of 3D seismic for radioctive waste disposal
in the Swiss Sedimentary Site Characterization Programme for HLW disposal in sedimentary
rocks
SHESTOPALOVA, O.: Future perspective clay formations usage for hazardous waste isolation in
Carpathian Region
DURDUN, I., MARUNTEANU, C- Romanian LILW disposal - site selection, characterization and
investigation programme
ANTTILA, E : Geological disposal of nuclear waste in Finland
BRUER, V , BORNEMANN, .: Geoscientific investigations at the Gorleben Salt Dome - the potential
German repository site for radioactive waste
WOLLER, : Siting of deep geological repository in the Czech Republic: history and current situation
LALIEUX, P.: International co-operation regarding site characterization and site evaluation for
repository systems of long-lived radioactive waste
ERIKSSON, L. G.: The M D design: an integrated earth sciences and geoengineering approach to safe
geological disposal of long-lived waste
AITMATOVA, D.: Radioactive wastes disposal and ecological safety problems on the Territory of
Kyrgyzstan
MARCINKEVICIUS, V , KANOPIENE, R.: The possibilities of deep repository of radioactive waste in
Lithuania
szekci: Protection of subsurface aquifers
SHESTOPALOV, V , ZAIONTS, I. O., BONDARENKO, Ya. I., STETSENKO, . D., RUDENKO, YU. F.: Structural-
geodynamical and hydrogeological zoning to reveal geological structures most perspective for
depth isolation of radioactive wastes
OPHORI, D.: Simulating large-scale groudwater flow for waste disposal purposes
KESSER, Z S . : Aquifers and mines at interacting risks: prevention principles for sedimentary
environment
TTH, J . , SHENG, G.: Using the recharge area concept as a strategy to enhance the safety of nuclear
waste disposal
LEBEDYNETS, M . , SPRYNSKY, M . : Subsurface water pollution by nitrate-ions contry-side in West Ukraine
VELICIU, S.: Consequences on the aquifers of the subterranean combustion in an oil field
KENNEDY, . , MLLER, I.: Improving ground water protection strategy by using documentes
Contaminant/Tracer Transport Rates
"A ma geolgija a holnaprt" konferencia eladsai 195
GONDI, E , LOEBEL, E.: An alternative approach for aquifer protection risk-based decision matrix
OGNIANIK, N . S., PARAMONOVA, N . K.' The problems of estimating the unsaturated zone contamination
with hydrocarbons and determining protective properties of the unsaturated zone
BOSCH, F. E , MLLER, I.: Groundwater vulnerability mapping in fissured rocks using continuously
recording, non contact, radio-frequency electromagnetic ( R F - E M ) instruments
SRs, L . , GULYS, A., OCSENS, P.: Ground geoelectrical methods in hydrogeological exploration
HAVAS-SZILGYI, E . , LIEBE, E : Problems and solutions of aquifer protection in Hungary
Zr ls
NARASIMHAN, T. N . : Protection of subsurface aquifers: a broader context
NEERDAEL, . , D E CRAEN, M . : Repositories for high-level waste in argillaceous formations geological
key questions
HALMAI, J.: Closing word
Actual state of the site characterisation

programme of the Boda Siltstone Formation
A Bodai Aleurolit Formci telephely-jellemzsi programjnak

jelenlegi llapota
1
Lszl KOVCS - Gbor H M O S - Jzsef C S I C S K
(4 Figures)
Key words: Boda Siltstone Formation, site characterization, HLW, Hungary,

final disposal, Short-Term Project
Trgyszavak: Bodai Aleurolit Formci, telephely minsts, nagy aktivits hulladk, Magyarorszg,
vgleges elhelyezs, Rvidtv Program
Abstract
Since 1993 an extensive geological research programme has been carried out in an attempt to
characterise the BSE The aim of the programme is to prepare for the final disposal of HLW produced
at the Paks Nuclear Power Plant. At the beginning of 1999 the final report was completed the
professional results of the three-year programme (Short-Term Project). O n the basis of the
investigations done so far, there is no evidence demonstrating the unsuitability of the BSF (indicating
that no further research is necessary). Besides the introduction of the most significant facts of final
report, the article gives a brief description of the three-year-project, including the economic,
regulatory and public acceptance background, project-specific professional circumstances, and the
possibility for making further progress.
sszefoglals
1993 ta kiterjedt geolgiai kutatsi program irnyult a Bodai Aleurolit Formci megkutatsra,
aminek clja a Paksi Atomermben keletkezett nagy radioaktivits hulladkok elhelyezsnek
elksztse. 1999 elejn elkszlt a hrom ves (rvidtv) program szakmai eredmnyeket
bemutat zrjelentse. A mr elvgzett kutatsok alapjn semmi olyan bizonytk nem merlt fel,
ami kizrn a Bodai Aleurolit alkalmassgt vagy megkrdjelezn a kutatsok folytatsnak
szksgessgt. A zrjelents lnyegnek ismertetse mellett rviden lerjuk a hrom ves
programot, belertve a gazdasgi, a szablyozsi s a lakossgi elfogadsi htteret, a program
specifikus szakmai krlmnyeket s az elrelpsi lehetsgeket.
Introduction
At o n time, t h e h i g h level radioactive waste ( H L W ) p r o d u c e d d u r i n g the

o p e r a t i o n of Paks N u c l e a r P o w e r Plant ( N P P ) w a s delivered to t h e Soviet U n i o n .
As a n o u t c o m e of t h e c h a n g e d political situation H u n g a r y has h a d to r e c o n s i d e r
its b a c k - e n d strategy. As a t e m p o r a r y solution the first m o d u l e of a n I n t e r i m
M o d u l a r Vault D r y S t o r e w a s c o n s t r u c t e d on t h e site of the N P P
1
MECSEKRC Environmental, Pcs, Esztergr L. str. 19. H-7633, Hungary e-mail:
< surename > < forename > @mecsekerc.hu
However, n o final decision was m a d e on the back-end strategy. This is why, at

present, w e are still not familiar with the composition, form and quantity of
wastes to be disposed. However, there is a total professional c o n s e n s u s on the
necessity for the final disposal of some part of the H L W (as the last phase of all
options and depending on its type and quantity with regard to the preferred
option).
Since 1993 surface and URL-based siting for H L W disposal in H u n g a r y has
c o n c e n t r a t e d on a Permian M u d s t o n e called the B o d a Siltstone Formation (BSF).
It is situated in S W Hungary, west of the city of Pcs. T h e detected extension of
2
this candidate host formation exceeds 150 k m , and its maximal thickness is
b e t w e e n 7 0 0 - 9 0 0 metres (Fig. 1). The last three-year stage of the preliminary site
characterisation (called the Short-Term Project) was finished at the b e g i n n i n g of
this year a n d no evidence was discovered w h i c h might exclude the potential
suitability of this candidate host formation. However, the information derived
from the first investigations do not allow a final conclusion to be m a d e on the
g e o l o g i c a l suitability of the B S E N e v e r t h e l e s s , a c o u n t r y - w i d e s c r e e n i n g
(performed in 1997) did not discover either a similar or a better candidate than
the B S F for H L W disposal.
Organisational, regulatory and public-acceptance background of the

Short-Term Project
The w h o l e three years of the Short-Term project can be characterised as a

transition period; the financial and organisational conditions h a v e c h a n g e d
several times. T h e n e w Nuclear Energy Act resulted in considerable and positive
legislative changes; however, these can only b e utilised during the next research
period. At the e n d of last year a n e w agency was established (Public A g e n c y for
Radioactive Waste M a n a g e m e n t - P U R A M ) for d e t e r m i n i n g the radwaste
m a n a g e m e n t policy of H u n g a r y and organising the R & D a n d PR-activities. T h e
costs are c o v e r e d by the Central Nuclear M o n e t a r y Fund.
Licensing the establishment and operation of a U R L located in the area of an
u r a n i u m m i n e was relatively simple. During the preparation of the research plan
there n o requirements relating to the special task set up b y the authorities. T h e
relevant executive decree was published only at the e n d of 1997. In spite of
c h a n g i n g the legal environment, the investigations were u n d e r the continuous
control of the authorities and i n d e p e n d e n t expert-boards. T h e best international
k n o w l e d g e served as a basis for this control.
People in this area have b e e n living together with uranium m i n i n g for more
than 40 years. Consequently, the establishment and operation of an U R L has not
caused fear on the part of local inhabitants. We belive that this positional
advantage can be maintained b y conscious and continuous P R activity.
E
w Cserdi VentiUa-tlon Sho.ft#IV
-\ Pannonion sediments s. I, (sand, clay, marl) Cserdi Formation (conglonerate, sandstone)

Miocene sediments s. I, (gravel, sand, narl)
Misina Fornation Group (llnestone, dolomite) Gyrf Rhyollte Formation

Vlganv&r Limestone Member (limestone, dolomite)
Aqulclude layers of Magyarr'g Anhydrite Menber Korpd Sandstone Formation
(anhydrite, gypsum, dolonlte and clayey narl) (conglomerate, sandstone, siltstone)
Patacs Formatlon s.I.(sandstone, slltstone)
Jakabhegy Sandstone Fornation (sandstone, Structural lines, faults
pebbly sandstone, with 'nain conglomerate')
-- ff ,-. , i J Kvgszols Sanstone Fornation with uranlum- Borehole

ore-bearlng layers (sandstone, conglomerate)
-p| 1 Boda Siltstone Fornation (claystone, slltstone Underground Research Laboratory in BSF
with thin layers of dolonltlc narl, dolonite> a t the level of-700 n (not in scale)
Fig. 1 W - E geological cross-section of Western Mecsek Anticline
1. bra A Nyugat-Mecseki Antiklnlis Ny-K-i irny metszete

Project-specific professional circumstances:
As a result of geological exploration c o n n e c t e d to the uranium ore mining, B S F

is located in an area of the country which has u n d e r g o n e the most detailed study.
Prior to the first research phase the amount of information on the B S F and its
geological e n v i r o n m e n t exceeded, with respect to the degree of the knowledge-
level, any other potential formation in the country.
T h e g e o m e t r y of the potential host formation presented a v e r y advantageous
situation for the investigations. In the framework of the Short-Term Project the
geological a n d hydrogeological investigations on the w e a t h e r e d surface -
including the drilling activity and the extended in situ U R L - b a s e d - experiments
could be performed and evaluated simultaneously. T h e spatial variability of the
parameters - mainly the depth d e p e n d e n c e - were described numerically. Using
surface geophysics and drilling research methods, the investigation could also be
extended to the formation underlying the B S F as well. T h e s e possibilities, in
combination with laboratory test programmes and evaluation-interpretation
activities including geomathematics and numerical modelling, provided site-
specific efficiency for collecting and evaluating information.
T h e U R L in the B S F is located at a depth of m o r e than 1050 m d e p t h below the
surface (Fig. 2 ) . T h e virgin rock temperature exceeds 50 C. T h e pore water
pressure is about 90 bars, and the maximal principal rock stress c o m p o n e n t
exceeds 30 MPa. Several special thermal-mechanical-hydraulic processes and
effects on the geological barrier could also be studied and understood under
relatively high rock-temperature, rock-stress a n d water-pressure conditions.
T h e exploratory-tunnel a n d the exploratory boreholes drilled from the tunnel
allow in-situ studies to be m a d e of almost all the respective rock types and beds
of the BSF, given that they have different geological, hydrogeological and
geotechnical features. However, the geometric extension of the investigations has
so far b e e n limited, so the potential migration pathways from a repository in the
B S F to the biosphere will be situated in similar rock types a n d beds (Fig. 3).
T h e largest professional disadvantage for the waste m a n a g e m e n t project is that
H u n g a r y has still n o t decided the final back-end strategy. For this reason a lot of
essential information is n e e d e d for planning the investigations; furthermore,
information for the performance assessment of site is still missing.
Key issues of the Final Report
T h e plan for the Short-Term Project was prepared in co-operation with AECL.
Its main aim is to provide essential information for answering the following
questions:
- Geological evolution (sedimentation, diagenetic and post-diagenetic
processes, tectonic history, etc.).
- Geometrical suitability, homogeneity, possibility of spatial extrapolation of
the results.
- Primary isolation capabilities of the formation.
KOVCS, L. et al: Actual state of the site characterisation programme of the Boda Fm 201
- Excavation-modified isolation properties (i.e. the processes of the Excavation

Disturbed Z o n e ) .
- T h e rock body as a host media for the technical facility p l a n n e d for a long
life-span.
- Long-term stability and the possibility for the punctual extrapolation of the
results.
To fulfil this aim in the framework of the Short-Term Project more than 100
different investigation m e t h o d s were applied. The Final R e p o r t of the project was
Fig. 2 Map of the exploring tunnels and more important underground boreholes of URL
2. bra Az URL feltr vgatainak s a legfontosabb fldalatti frsainak trkpe

LEGEND:
Fig. 3 Geological cross-section in the vertical plane of the Alpha-1 exploratory tunnel
3. bra. Az Alfa-1 kutatvgat fldtani szelvnye
c o m p l e t e d during the second half of last year. It consists of 9 Volumes (about 1600
pages in total). T h e following sections provide brief information on the key issues
of this report.
Geological evolution
The m o d e r n features of the B S F have evolved through geological processes.

Sedimentation, diagenesis as well as the most important geodynamic-tectonic
events were analysed accurately with special regard to stress a n d thermal history.
The study was e x t e n d e d to the geological e n v i r o n m e n t of the w h o l e South-Trans-
D a n u b e . As a result of systematic and integrated evaluation of the collected data
w e were able to identify the history of the B S F and the structure of the formation
was also determined.
Sedimentation took place in a special alkaline lacustrine e n v i r o n m e n t , u n d e r
e x t r e m e climatic a n d g e o c h e m i c a l conditions. D u r i n g t h e late p e r i o d of
diagenesis the layers o f the formation w e r e buried at a depth of 3.5-4.5 km, u n d e r
temperatures b e t w e e n 1 6 0 - 1 8 0 C. This situation has resulted in the over-
consolidated character of BSF.
Hitherto, relics of four tectonic periods each with different features have b e e n
discovered b y the detailed surface and u n d e r g r o u n d geological mapping.
KOVCS, L . et al: Actual state of the site characterisation programme of the Boda Fm 203
Geometric suitability
As a n o u t c o m e of geological evolution the detected extension of the candidate

2
host formation exceeds 150 k m and its thickness varies b e t w e e n 7 0 0 - 9 0 0 metres.
2
Investigations focused on the central region, covering 5 5 - 6 0 k m . Inside this area
the h o m o g e n e i t y of the confinement properties were also verified b y g e o -
m a t h e m a t i c s . This analysis excluded an approximately. 150 metres thick bottom
series with uncertain confinement-properties and a w e a t h e r e d 3 0 - 5 0 metres
thick outcrop area.
T h e presence of a b a n d o n e d cavities of closed uranium ore m i n e s represent the
most i m p o r t a n t site-specific risk factor. Therefore the repository m u s t be located
at a safe distance from these cavities. This requirement, and the protection zone
a r o u n d the inhabited areas, reduce the potentially suitable area for a repository.
2
In spite of the limitations, the potentially suitable zone has a 3 0 - 3 5 k m
horizontal extension and a 600 m vertical one. Information provided b y the Short
Term P r o g r a m m e has not m a d e it possible to determine the location and the
d e p t h o f the repository within this potentially suitable zone.
Primary confinement capabilities
Virgin confinement features of the B S F are determined b y a 3 5 - 5 0 % clay-

m i n e r a l content, dominantly Illite ( 3 0 - 4 0 % ) . T h e Chlorite content in the clay
accounts 5 - 1 0 % . Smectite content is generally below the detectable limit, but
s m e c t i t e s also o c c u r in outcrops in the w e a t h e r e d z o n e a n d inside the
deformation b a n d of faults.
T h e b u l k - p o r o s i t y o f the r o c k - s a m p l e s is low ( 0 . 6 - 1 . 4 % ) . T h e water-
conductivity of intact rock bodies determined by in-situ h y d r o d y n a m i c tests
1 3
varies b e t w e e n W ' ^ - I O " m/s. T h e s e test results refer to diffusion-dominating
transport conditions.
G i v e n the paleo-stress state, it can be d e d u c e d that the self-healing processes
m u s t h a v e b e e n a general p h e n o m e n o n prior to late miocen-pliocen period.
Recently, at a 1000 m depth, almost all the tectonic zones have b e e n characterised
10
as h a v i n g permeability-values of 1 0 " m/s. Younger faults occur only rarely; these
y o u n g e r faults produce visible water inflows. Their permeability varies b e t w e e n
8 9
1 0 " - 1 0 " m/s. Slow, advective pollutant transport should b e assumed to take
place a l o n g these y o u n g faults.
O f c o u r s e , the a b o v e - m e n t i o n e d hydrogeological characterisation of the
different tectonic generations is only a preliminary result. At present, w e do not
have sufficient information to understand properly the fundamental flow and
transport processes c o n c e r n i n g n u m e r o u s different types of discontinuity. In-situ
tracer tests w e r e not performed during the Short-Term Project.
Several in-situ and laboratory test m e t h o d s provided favourable information
with regard to the m o d e r n geochemical environment, the stress field and the
m i g r a t i o n of r a d i o a c t i v e - e l e m e n t s / i o n s as well. P r e l i m i n a r y 2 D a n d 3 D
h y d r o d y n a m i c a l models were applied and validated b y the data collected in
connection with the surface-based hydrogeological m a p p i n g for the study of the

regional, intermediate and local flow-patterns.
Excavation-modified confinement properties:
Special attention was paid to the determination of physical, geochemical and

microbiological changes in the Excavation-Disturbed Z o n e .
Besides the n u m e r o u s separate in-situ test series, it is really important to
e m p h a s i z e t h e so-called C o m p l e t e I n s t r u m e n t a l A r r a y (Fig. 4 ; h e r e the
mechanical, hydraulic and thermal state-transitions within the E D Z caused b y
tunnelling w e r e recorded simultaneously. The results w e r e interpreted in an
energetically uniform system. According to the results of 3 D - c o u p l e d numerical
modelling the average, quasi-isotropic permeability of E D Z increased b y up to
8
5 x l 0 " m/s. Pressure changes extended over 20 metres according to back-
calculations. This back-calculated value fits in with the m e a s u r e m e n t s done in
other areas, even in the earlier tectonic zones.
A special self-healing effect of (technical origin) was discovered in the course of
the tunnelling in connection with the Complete Instrumental Array. As a result
of this there has b e e n a r e a r r a n g e m e n t of the stress field a n d the location of the
joints.
Chemical and geochemical features of the pore water flowing towards the
cavities h a v e b e e n modified considerably. For example, the T D S increased to 6 - 8
g/1, and was oxidised. Microbiological investigations w e r e started in the frame of
the Short-Term Project.
Geotechnical features
T h e unexpectedly favourable geotechnical features for exploring tunnels can

also be attributed to the mineralogical-petrographical properties. Namely, the
absence of swelling clay minerals and the presence of microcrystalline Silica and
Albite h a v e g i v e n c o n s i d e r a b l y b e t t e r strength p r o p e r t i e s to the B S F in
comparison to a n o t h e r potential argillaceous host rock formations (Albite content
varies b e t w e e n 2 0 - 4 5 % ) . T h e stress state is also advantageous. In spite of the
great d e p t h the openings have b e e n s h o w n to be stable in the long-term, inside
the tectonic zones as well.This has b e e n verified b y deformation-monitoring. T h e
o n l y problem w a s a rock-falling effect w h i c h h a d a gradually decreasing
intensity. This effect terminated within 1-2 w e e k s after the excavation. However,
a slow creep was also recorded over the following 6 - 8 m o n t h s .
T h e tunnels crossing the B S F w e r e supported primarily with rock bolts. T h e
v o l u m e of the subsequent m a i n t e n a n c e was v e r y small.
T h e waste-generated near-field heat processes have not b e e n studied yet; pre
sumably, the B S F has a relatively low heat sensitivity due to its thermal history.
KOVCS, L. et al: Actual state of the site characterisation programme of the Boda Fm 205
Fig. 4 Geometry of the installed measuring devices in the Complete Instrumental Array
4. bra. A mrmszerek trbeli helyzete a teljes mszer-rendszerben
Long term stability
Two m o r e considerable subtasks were performed c o n c e r n i n g the possibility of

the extrapolation of the results with respect to time a n d long-term risks in the
framework of the Short-Term Project:
- C o g n i t i o n w i t h r e g a r d to the velocity a n d direction o f slow crustal
m o v e m e n t s (using geological m a p p i n g and geophysical m e t h o d s ) and their
influence on the confinement properties.
- Data acquisition for the assessment of the long-term seismic risk of the site.
The n a t u r e a n d velocity of the m o d e r n geological processes, hitherto k n o w n in
the surroundings of the BSF, allows a conclusion w h i c h shows that considerable
c h a n g e s of the hydrogeological and flow system will not occur over the next
100 000 years. Site-specific surplus risks, in comparison with other potential sites
of Europe, were n o t identified.
Conclusion
According to the results of the investigation which w e n t on intensively for

seven years - w h i c h e x t e n d e d into the most significant tectonic z o n e of the area,
206 Fldtani Kzlny 13012
applying in-situ m e t h o d s - no evidence was found which could exclude the

suitability of this potential host formation. T h e geometric size of the B S E its
c o n f i n e m e n t a n d the geotechnical features examined so far, can be regarded as
favourable a n d suitable for the planned purpose, even w h e n it is compared with
the situation in to other countries.
Possibilities for stepping forward
T h e p e r f o r m a n c e of the Short-Term Project represents a great advance towards

final, integrated characterisation the B S F as a potential host formation. But it's
really clear, that this period was only the first step. Information of essential
i m p o r t a n c e is still missing.
Characterisation programmes of the candidate/reference argillaceous sites of
EU and O E C D countries are supported b y strong international co-operation.
Such c o - o p e r a t i o n would be essential important for H u n g a r y in order to avoid
professional, licensing and public acceptance problems.
T h e next step would be to w o r k out the plans of the long-term p r o g r a m m e for
the characterisation of the B S F using the information gathered during the last
three years. For the implementation of a successful long-term project several
m e a s u r i n g d e v i c e s a n d m e t h o d s , as w e l l as e v a l u a t i o n a n d Q u a l i t y
Assurance/Quality Control m e t h o d s should b e developed further or obtained.
S o m e of the m o s t important items: so far the first version of the performance-
assessment has not b e e n carried out. O n other hand, the more developed
performance-assessment - necessarily taking into consideration the disposal
c o n c e p t - is to be planned later and some other recently lacking information has
to be obtained (the results of in situ tracer tests, biosphere-parameters).
For an effective site-characterisation the investigation m e t h o d s should be
optimised in accordance with all professional goals. URL-based, in situ m e t h o d s
are indispensable for answering s o m e of the above-mentioned questions. Due to
the essential questions, w h i c h can only b e a n s w e r e d with u n d e r g r o u n d
investigations, it is really necessary to preserve the possibility of u n d e r g r o u n d
r e s e a r c h . T h e r e f o r e a p r o p o s a l has b e e n c o m p l e t e d w h i c h targets the
d e v e l o p m e n t o f a research station by upgrading and extending the existing U R L
and separating this from the uranium mine which is to be closed. This upgraded
U R L was i n t e n d e d to serve the long-term project and it could have fulfilled its
task with w h o l e functionality. Yet, although all professional, economical and
public-acceptance arguments supported the proposal on continuing the U R L -
studies here, the g o v e r n m e n t a l decision terminated this project.
However, t h e cancellation of the project does not imply a rejection of the
potential suitability o f the B S E T h e characterisation p r o g r a m m e is likely to
c o n t i n u e b y using surface-based investigation methods. Nevertheless, at present
the s c h e d u l e o f these activities is uncertain.
4
D u e to H u n g a r y s efforts to join the European Union, this professionally and
politically critical issue is to b e treated in such a way that it is internationally
acceptable a n d conforms to E U norms.
Fldtani Kzlny 130/2 2 0 7 - 2 1 8 (2000) Budapest
The long-term safety of underground waste

repositories
- A key issue for research and development -
Felsznalatti hulladktrolk hossztv biztonsga - kutats s

fejleszts
1 1
W e r n t B R E W I T Z - Ulrich N O S E C K
(3 figures)
Key words: radioactive waste, repositories, safety concepts, long-term safety assessment
Kulcsszavak: radioaktv hulladk, trolk, biztonsgi tervek, hossztv biztonsgbecsls
Abstract
Concepts for the final disposal of radioactive waste include, among others, disposal in under
ground cavities and, in specific cases, disposal in deep geological formations. In several countries
provisions have been made in the national regulatory framework for the adoption of such waste
disposal concepts. The basic idea is to isolate waste from ground surface and meteoric water as long
as required for the sustainable preservation of the environment. T h e time-frame depends on the
toxicity of the radioactive materials as well as on durability of the waste containers. Both are essential
parameters for the selection of appropriate underground cavities or deep geological strata for the
construction of such repositories. One of the most challenging tasks for scientists and engineers is to
forecast the long-term behaviour of the repository and the assessment of potential adverse conditions
on the basis of sound geological data and realistic evolution models (scenarios).
For very good reasons many countries are pursueing radioactive waste disposal in deep geological
formations. The principal advantage is that deep repositories are covered by thick geological barriers,
in many cases with separated aquifers and without effective hydraulic pathways which could be
potential travelling ways for toxic substances. That means that under normal conditions the isolation
capacity of deep repositories should be in the range of geological time-frames. Potential host rocks are
granite, rock salt, argillaceous rocks and others, depending on favourable site-specific conditions.
With respect to the operational safety rock mechanic aspects are the most important factors. This
is w h y various parameters, such as rock stresses and tensile strength, have to be investigated. In
addition, field measurements may help to characterise the rock mass stability and the changes which
may be induced by the repository. For post-operational safety hydrogeological and geochemical
research is mainly needed in order to produce data on radionuclide mobilisation and groundwater-
transport. These are input parameters for generic as well as site-related performance assessment
models. An engineering task is the development of adequate backfilling and sealing measures for the
underground cavities and the access shafts. In Germany a comprehensive R & D programme has been
devised to cover these issues. The main objective is to improve both the data-base and methodology
for the long-term safety assessment of underground waste repositories.
1
Gesellschaft fr Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Repository Safety Research Divison,
38011 Braunschweig, Postfach 2126
sszefoglals
A radioaktv hulladkok vgs elhelyezsre irnyul tervek kztt - egyb megoldsok mellett -
fldalatti regek, s klnleges esetekben mlysgi fldtani kpzdmnyek is szerepelnek. A nemzeti
jogszablyozs keretben tbb orszgban ilyen hulladkelhelyezsi koncepcit fogadtak el. Az
alapgondolat az, hogy a hulladkot mindaddig elszigeteljk a felszntl s a csapadktl, amg azt a
krnyezet vdelme megkveteli. A szksges id hossza a radioaktv anyagok mrgez tulaj
donsgtl s a hulladktartlyok tartssgtl fgg. Mindkett fontos tnyez a trol ptshez
megfelel fldalatti regek vagy felsznalatti fldtani kpzdmnyek kivlasztsban. A tudsok s a
mrnkk szmra az egyik legnagyobb kihvs a trol hossztv viselkedsnek elrejelzse s a
lehetsges kedveztlen esemnyek becslse a fldtani adatok s a fejldsi modellek alapjn.
Jl rthet okokbl szmos orszg trekszik a radioaktv hulladkok mlyen fekv fldtani
kpzdmnyekben val elhelyezsre. Lnyeges elny, hogy a mlysgi trolkat vastag fldtani gt
fedi, sok esetben elklnl vzad rteggel, s nincsenek hatkony ramlsi plyk, amik egyben a
mrgez anyagok lehetsges szlltsi tvonalai lehetnnek. Ez azt is jelenti, hogy normlis
krlmnyek kztt a felsznalatti trolk szigetel hatsa fldtani idkben mrhet. A lehetsges
befogad kzetek kztt van a grnit, a ks, az agyagok s a telephely sajtos krlmnyeitl
fggen ms kzetek.
A biztonsgos zemeltets szempontjbl a kzetmechanikai jellegek a legfontosabbak, ezrt meg
kell hatrozni a kzetfeszltsget s a hzszilrdsgot. A terepi mrsek hozzsegthetnek a kzet
stabilitsnak, s a tervezett trol ltal ltrehozott vltozsoknak a jellemzshez. Az zemeltets
utni biztonsgossghoz a hidrogeolgiai s a geokmiai kutats a legszksgesebb, mivel ezekbl a
radioaktv elemvndorlsrl s a talajvzmozgsrl nyernk adatokat, amik az ltalnos s a
telephelykzeli modellek bemen adatai. Mrnki feladat a fldalatti regek s az aknk megfelel
tmedkelse s a zrrtegek kiptse. Nmetorszgban tfog K&F (Kutatsi s Fejlesztsi)
program kszl ezeknek a problmknak a megoldsra. A f cl a felsznalatti trolk hossztv
biztonsgi becslsnek alapjul szolgl adatbzis s a mdszertan fejlesztse.
Introduction
The final disposal of radioactive waste arising from n u c l e a r research centres

a n d operating n u c l e a r p o w e r plants is an increasingly i m p o r t a n t issue in m o s t
countries w h i c h use n u c l e a r p o w e r as a major e n e r g y source. In G e r m a n y the
p r o b l e m w a s already b e i n g tackled in the mid-sixties w h e n the disused salt m i n e
A S S E w a s c o n v e r t e d into a R&D-facility for u n d e r g r o u n d waste disposal. In the
late seventies a n d b e g i n n i n g of the eighties the disused iron ore m i n e K O N R A D
w a s investigated for its feasibility as a n o n - h e a t g e n e r a t i n g site a n d for the
d e c o m m i s s i o n i n g of w a s t e disposal. O n the basis of a favourable result the
licensing p r o c e d u r e was started in 1982. T h i s required detailed site char
acterisation a n d a n a d v a n c e d technical disposal concept. H o w e v e r , an o p e r a t i n g
licence h a s still n o t b e e n granted. In the former East G e r m a n y an u n d e r g r o u n d
repository w a s b e i n g d e v e l o p e d from 1971 o n w a r d s a n d this later o p e r a t e d in the
disused p o t a s h m i n e M O R S L E B E N . T h e operation w a s re-started for LLW-
disposal in 1994 but s t o p p e d in 1998. T h e G O R L E B E N salt d o m e is at p r e s e n t
b e i n g investigated for its feasibility as a repository for all categories of radioactive
w a s t e , in particular h i g h level h e a t g e n e r a t i n g w a s t e but also i n t e r m e d i a t e a n d
low level material. In G e r m a n y the n e w g o v e r n m e n t has d e c i d e d to r e c o n s i d e r
b o t h t h e disposal strategy as w e l l as the disposal options. A g r o u p of experts -
m o s t of t h e m geologists - h a s started w o r k i n g o n a d v a n c e d criteria for site
selection.
BREWITZ, W. &NOSECK, U.: The long-term safety of underground waste repositories 209
In other countries there have b e e n different approaches (DECAMPS 1 9 9 6 ) . In

S w e d e n and Finland, for instance, underground repositories for low a n d inter
mediate level waste have b e e n mined a n d constructed in granitic rocks (POSIVA
O Y 1 9 9 6 ; V I R A 1 9 9 4 ) . T h e s e geological r e p o s i t o r i e s h a v e b e e n o p e r a t e d
successfully for several years. France has pre-selected claystone and granite as a
host rock formation for high level waste, and the USA is planning a final
repository for spent fuel in welded tuff (WITHERSPOON 1 9 9 6 ) . G e r m a n scientists
are participating in s o m e underground laboratories in the various countries.
Despite s o m e politically motivated disputes, in a n u m b e r of countries there are
no basic problems to b e solved for low and intermediate level waste disposal in
deep geological repositories. For high level waste repositories specific issues -
such as coupled processes in the repository near the field and the retention of
long living radionuclides in the geosphere - still h a v e to be investigated in order
to gain sufficient data sets for performance assessment. T h e long-term safety of
such repositories d e p e n d s very m u c h on geological and site specific parameters
as well as on the technical concepts used for backfilling and the sealing of dis
posal vaults and shafts. It also has to be a c k n o w l e d g e d that for large and spacious
waste repositories s o m e damage to the geological barrier, caused b y m i n i n g
and/or specific site conditions, m a y require special technical solutions in order to
achieve the necessary safety for extended periods of time. This again might
require advanced experimental and performance assessment methodologies.
Safety concepts for underground waste repositories
Safety concepts for u n d e r g r o u n d repositories h a v e to be based primarily on

the parameters o f the radioactive waste to be disposed of - e.g. radiotoxicity,
decay time, a m o u n t of a-bearing waste, waste form and waste v o l u m e . T h e
operational safety for HLWALW requires (in comparison with LLW) specific
shielding for transportation, handling and disposal. For construction a n d post-
operational safety the selection of 'dry' or 'wet' host rocks is crucial importance
(IAEA 1 9 9 1 ) . T h e ultimate objective of site-specific R & D is to provide technical
concepts for the safe operation and long-term safety of such a repository. With
respect to operational safety, this concept has to c o m p l y with the relevant m i n i n g
regulations and the actual radiation protection regulations. The long-term safety
has to b e proved for the required periods of time ( 1 0 0 0 0 years a n d m o r e ) . T h e
entire repository system with its different technical, geotechnical and geological
barriers has to b e analysed in detail; b y modelling the most relevant mobilisation
and migration processes it has to be demonstrated that there will be n o
radioactivity release resulting in unacceptable individual doses to the public. This
task requires specific geological and geotechnical investigations as well as specific
methodologies for performance and long-term safety assessment.
Today considerable k n o w - h o w is available, not only through the individuals
w o r k i n g on s o m e national projects but also on an international level. Safety
criteria for radioactive waste disposal have b e e n internationally agreed u p o n and
published b y the IAEA a n d frequent exchange of the latest achievements is being
organised b y O E C D / N E A (BALTES 1995; RTHEMEYER 1994). T h e main objective of

o n g o i n g R&D-activities in several countries is the envisaged disposal of H L W
and spent fuel in deep geological formations. In particular the d e v e l o p m e n t of
adequate backfilling and sealing strategies a n d the further d e v e l o p m e n t a n d
application of advanced PA-methodologies are important tasks, given the more
d e m a n d i n g licensing procedures in a very conscious public environment.
R&D Aspects in Rock Salt Formations
In G e r m a n y rock salt was selected as a ' d r y ' disposal formation for all
categories of radioactive waste at a very early stage of t h e G e r m a n waste
m a n a g e m e n t programme. T h e first experiences with LLW/ILW-disposal were
m a d e in the ASSE salt m i n e in 1972 - 1977 (GSF 1982). For ILW a special disposal
technique for 200 1 drums without over-packs w a s developed a n d tested. A total
of about 1300 drums containing an inventory of 5 000 T B q , mainly of short-lived
3
radionuclides, was emplaced in rock salt in a small c h a m b e r of about 9000 m and
p e r m a n e n t l y sealed off from the mine workings. The m a x i m u m surface dose rate
of t h e d r u m s was about 30 Sv per hour a n d was mainly caused b y Cobalt 60. This
radiation level required transport a n d handling techniques to b e carried out
u n d e r p e r m a n e n t radiation shielding. T h e LLWALW-disposal operation in t h e
ASSE-mine w a s terminated in 1977. With respect to operational safety, the
following results can be given:
- t h e ILW-drums w e r e safely e m p l a c e d b y routine o p e r a t i o n s while a
p e r m a n e n t radiation shield was maintained,
- t h e radiation exposure of the staff was v e r y low c o m p a r e d with that of t h e
e m p l a c e m e n t of unshielded LLW-Drums,
- within 2 0 years of p e r m a n e n t emplacement the concentration of hazardous
c o m p o n e n t s in t h e chamber's atmosphere remained far below a n y set safety limit,
- the radiation level decreased as expected from the half-lives of the radio
nuclide inventory.
With respect to the post operational safety of radioactive waste disposal in rock
salt several case studies were performed within the scope of national and
i n t e r n a t i o n a l R & D - p r o j e c t s (BUHMANN et al. 1995; BUHMANN 1996; HIRSEKORN et al.
1991; STORCK et al. 1988). In the PAGIS-project (co-funded b y the EU) different
host rock formations were evaluated for their isolation potential for H L W
(STORCK et al. 1988). In t h e PACOMA project the long-term effects of conceptual
u n d e r g r o u n d repositories for intermediate-level and a - c o n t a m i n a t e d wastes
w e r e c o m p a r e d with those of HLW-repositories (HIRSEKORN et al. 1991). T h e
calculated radionuclide release into the biosphere, as a c o n s e q u e n c e of a brine
7
intrusion scenario, resulted in a dose rate of about 10" Sv/year a n d n o release for
HLW repositories. If, shortly after operation, a considerable n u m b e r of disposal
c h a m b e r s a n d drifts is affected b y brine intrusion the total dose rates for both will
4 6
be in t h e range of 1 0 " to 1 0 " Sv/year. With reference to t h e long-term
c o n s e q u e n c e s o f H L W a n d spent fuel disposal in rock salt a n u m b e r o f sensitivity
BREWITZ, W. & NOSECK, U.: The long-term safety of underground waste repositories 211
analyses were performed in the framework of the G e r m a n R & D - p r o g r a m m e .

Based o n the findings t h e key parameters for research and d e v e l o p m e n t for HLW
disposal in rock salt w e r e identified:
- c o n v e r g e n c e of u n d e r g r o u n d cavities and disposal rooms,
- v o l u m e of brine pockets to be expected,
- permeability and porosity of geo-barriers,
- permeability of u n d e r g r o u n d sealing dams,
- time span to be considered for brine intrusions,
- k - v a l u e s of parts/sections of the geosphere,
d
- groundwater flow in overlaying strata.
Additional studies were performed with a view to creating a central repository

in a salt d o m e for the disposal of all radioactive waste categories (BUHMANN et al.
1991). A m o n g other things dissolver sludges, decommissioning waste as well as
structural parts and secondary wastes from the conditioning of spent fuel
e l e m e n t s were considered as ILW. It was presumed that H L W w o u l d b e emplaced
in boreholes, spent fuel in drifts, and ILW in galleries or in boreholes in special
disposal sections, apart from heat-producing wastes (see Fig. 1). D u e to the great
a m o u n t of heat-producing HLW, the rock salt will be effected in such a w a y that
the v o l u m e c o n v e r g e n c e of the u n d e r g r o u n d cavities will increase and open
voids n e a r H L W disposal sections will close more rapidly. If the design of a
r a d i o a c t i v e w a s t e r e p o s i t o r y in rock salt takes a d v a n t a g e of t h e s e rock
mechanical aspects brine is unlikely to reach the H L W disposal sections. In this
case the possibility of radionuclide releases from H L W will be limited and so, too,
will unlikely events such as an early and large brine intrusion. This applies in
particular if all waste categories are emplaced c o m m o n l y in disposal drifts and
the inventory of ILW is mobilised first due to of the limited quality of the
technical barriers.
ILW-Disposal in Argillaceous Formations
A n u m b e r of countries have pre-selected argillaceous formations for the

construction of LLW and ILW repositories. In France such rock formations are
also b e i n g investigated for H L W disposal. In G e r m a n y the 'to be licensed'
repository K O N R A D for non-heat generating waste will b e constructed in the
Oxford formation of the U p p e r Jurassic at a depth of 800 to 1300 m. The
geological barrier is formed almost entirely b y claystones and is up to 900 m thick.
D u e to these site conditions the m i n e is extremely dry. Because of the mechanical
properties of the rock mass a n d the great depth, disposal drifts can only be of a
limited size. This is - besides waste-specific and waste m a n a g e m e n t arguments -
a site-specific reason w h y this repository was planned for self-shielding waste
only. T h e size of the various loading stations and travelling ways are not wide
e n o u g h to accommodate the necessary shielding devices for the handling and
disposal of large waste volumes. In order to comply with the occupational dose
limits of the G e r m a n radiation protection regulations various types of concrete,
Fig. 1 Schematic concept of a repository for HLW, spent fuel and ILW in salt formations
1. bra. A nagyaktivits radioaktv hulladk, az elhasznlt ftelemek s a kzepes aktivits radiokatv

hulladk s formcikban trtn elhelyezsnek elvi modellje
cast iron and normal 5 ft and 10 ft containers have b e e n selected for LLW and
2
ILW. The containers will be emplaced in 40 m wide drifts by m e a n s of the
stacking technique. T h e remaining open space will be backfilled before the drifts
are sealed off.
The long-term safety assessment of the repository is based on a hydro-
geological m o d e l covering an area of 40 km from north to south and 14 k m from
east to west (STORCK 1988). The hydraulic rock parameters and, in particular, the
rock mass conductivity were either directly measured or determined from
geological analogues. From the experiences gained in the K O N R A D m i n e itself
and in the entire mining district of Salzgitter, it was concluded that a considerable
water intrusion will not occur during the operational phase. After s h u t d o w n the
repository will slowly be filled with high saline, deep groundwater and this will
take up to several thousand years. O n l y then will the regional groundwater flow
b e c o m e effective again, but at a greater depth. Due to the uniform geological
structure and the absence of deep cutting tectonic faults only three possible
pathways w e r e identified for radionuclide transport (these are s h o w n in Fig. 2).
After s h u t d o w n of the repository the total radionuclide inventory will a m o u n t to
6
1 0 TBq, of which 9 7 % will be beta/gamma- and 3% alpha-emitters. Iodine-129
amounts to 0.15 TBq. Although the density of the high saline g r o u n d w a t e r was
not taken into account, the calculated groundwater travelling times ranged from
0.3 to 1.1 million years. T h e calculation of individual doses as a function of time
p r o v e d that for up to 10 000 years and more there will be no contamination of the
biosphere. Hypothetical calculations for individual radionuclides revealed that
after more than 300 000 years I o d i n e - 1 2 9 could cause some m i n o r exposure in a
r a n g e w h i c h is a natural level of exposure to man.
It has to be stressed that due to the most favourable site conditions, the great
d e p t h a n d the almost complete lack of groundwater in the mine, major side
effects will not occur. In particular, the corrosion of containers a n d waste is of no
great importance in the operational phase of the repository. In the post-
operational phase corrosion gases (which m a y be generated as a c o n s e q u e n c e of
w a t e r seepage into the disposal drifts) can migrate along the excavation damage
zone so that no gas pressure build up has to be considered. This m a y be
completely different at other sites with larger volumes of g r o u n d w a t e r present or
freely available from adjacent rock masses. However, for a repository taking
advantage of the 'dry' site conditions, adequate backfilling and sealing measures
in drifts a n d shafts are of utmost importance in order to preserve these
conditions for as long as required.
Waste disposal in granitic formations
In m a n y European countries granite is the preferred host rock formation for

the disposal of HLW and this has b e e n explored in great detail. In G e r m a n y
granitic formations have not been explored to a n y great extent. However,
G e r m a n y ( B G R , G R S ) has b e e n participating in u n d e r g r o u n d repositories at
Grimsel and sp since 1983 and 1995, respectively. In addition a study was
p e r f o r m e d (GEISHA) in order to compare the most relevant data a n d processes
of the two disposal concepts (rock salt, granite) from the v i e w point of PA (PAPP
1997). In this context the following aspects were considered:
- site investigation,
- backfilling and sealing,
- repository design,
- geochemistry,
- long-term safety.
O n these basis and an understanding of various systems, first conceptional
m o d e l s a n d numerical tools for a long-term safety assessment o f an H L W
repository in granitic formations have b e e n developed in Germany. In the E C -
funded project Spent fuel performance assessment (SPA)", a long-term safety
assessment study for a repository in a granitic formation (based on the above
m e n t i o n e d preliminary concept) has b e e n performed (LHRMANN et al. 2000). For
the repository design, engineered barriers and the geological situation assumed
to d e m o n s t r a t e the long-term safety of the repository system. As s h o w n in Fig. 3
the highest release and dose rates have b e e n caused by the limited non-solubility
a n d weakly absorption capacity of the radionuclides C-14, Cl-36, 1-129, Cs-135
a n d Se-79 (but these rates remained well below the regulatory limits).
The study has shown that the near-field barrier is of significant importance for
the long- term safety of the repository. Moreover, geotechnical barriers also
require high financial inputs for d e v e l o p m e n t and construction. So a more

detailed investigation of all processes which might influence the barrier function
of the near-field barrier is necessary, it is intended that this investigation will be
performed o n the European level. T h e overall aim of the planned project is to
e n h a n c e the modelling of the near-field barriers in order to reach a close-to-
reality-level and to investigate the optimisation potential of the geotechnical
barrier.
G e r m a n scientists are participating in in-situ projects in granitic formations.
With respect to the ongoing experimental w o r k at Grimsel and Asp respectively
the following experiments should be mentioned:
- t w o - p h a s e flow,
- geoelectrical m e a s u r e m e n t s in the zone disturbed b y excavation ( E D Z ) ,
- gas migration in geotechnical barriers (e.g. buffer, seals).
The main e m p h a s i s at the m o m e n t is on the development, characterisation and
long-term p e r f o r m a n c e of geo-barriers since, given the findings of from our
projects G E I S H A a n d SPA, it is apparent that these are the most important issues.
Backfilling and sealing concepts for underground waste repositories
As outlined above, backfilling and sealing measures contribute substantially to

the long-term safety of the u n d e r g r o u n d waste repositories. For this v e r y reason
considerable R & D efforts are being m a d e in various national w a s t e - m a n a g e m e n t
p r o g r a m m e s . In G e r m a n y several projects are in progress in both the site
investigation programs of BfS and the basic R & D - p r o g r a m m e of BMBF. For
repositories in rock salt crushed salt is being investigated for its use as backfilling
material in disposal drifts and boreholes. Although most of these experiments are
run u n d e r a h e a t load, s o m e results will also be achieved with respect to
u n h e a t e d disposal sections. T h e main concern is the compaction behaviour of
such materials. T h e sooner high compaction is reached, the smaller the chance
for intruding brines to c o m e into contact with the waste. This m e c h a n i c a l process
is mainly g o v e r n e d b y the creep behaviour of rock salt ( and u p o n w h i c h d e p t h
a n d heat h a v e an accelerating effect). In a specially mined repository for all waste
categories the a r r a n g e m e n t of heated and u n h e a t e d disposal sections m a y have
a highly positive effect on the long-term safety.
This favourable situation m a y differ due to site-specific geological features. For
the LLW-repository M O R S L E B E N (BfS 1995; BRENNECKE et al. 1997; EBEL 1991) -
w h i c h is sited in a disused potash mine - a concept for backfilling and sealing is
3
presently b e i n g developed. T h e mine has a total cavity v o l u m e of 7.6 million m
of w h i c h the southern part Bartensieben, with the disposal sections, makes up
3
about 7 0 % . In addition to 14 000 m from former disposal operations about 40 000
3
m of LLW will b e disposed of by the end of the year 2000. For the various
disposal sections with access drifts, adjacent travelling ways, internal shafts and
boreholes the following alternatives are being investigated:
- isolation o f the disposal sections from m i n e workings using dams m a d e from
highly c o m p a c t e d b e n t o n i t and placed at specific locations in the access drifts,
- enclosure of disposal chambers b y backfilling of all the access drifts with

qualified sand-bentonite mixtures,
- deceleration of brine extrusion b y the backfilling of all drifts with porous
sand gravel mixtures.
W h a t is c o m m o n for all three concepts is that s o m e parts of the old m i n e will
also b e backfilled in order to stabilise the m i n e workings w h e r e necessary. B y
m e a n s of system analysis and performance assessment they h a v e b e e n evaluated
for their effectiveness, advantages and disadvantages (STORCK & PREUSS 1 9 9 7 ) . It
was s h o w n that in principle each concept can ensure the long-term safety of the
repository. However, s o m e of the data sets used in the m o d e l s n e e d to be
confirmed by laboratory and/or in situ experiments. This applies in particular to
the use of highly compacted bentonit for dam constructions in a highly saline
environment. Such experiments h a v e already b e e n started and will last for about
three years.
With respect to the backfilling of shafts the B M B F together with the G e r m a n
potash mining c o m p a n y KALI + SALZ has just started a large scale field
experiment in the disused potash m i n e S A L Z D E T F U R T H . T h e c o n c e p t is to
backfill a 770 m deep shaft with stabilising material in the b o t t o m part and with
a 40 m thick bentonit plug in the transition section to the covering rock strata.
After construction the m e c h a n i c and hydraulic performance of the seal plug will
be measured using direct and indirect methods. Without explaining in detail the
various technical and scientific challenges, it has to be stated that this R & D
project is of great importance for any kind of u n d e r g r o u n d waste repository.
Summary
The final disposal of low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste in deep

geological formations has b e e n tested and is b e i n g applied in s o m e countries.
Both the operational a n d post-operational safety concepts h a v e b e e n approved
b y the r e s p e c t i v e n a t i o n a l l i c e n s i n g authorities. H o w e v e r , it has to be
a c k n o w l e d g e d that these repositories are either small in v o l u m e a n d activity,
h a v i n g an enlarged system of technical barriers, or they are situated in
exceptionally dry rock formations. For a large-volume repository - a n d especially
if the u n d e r g r o u n d e n v i r o n m e n t is basically wet - the disposal strategy might be
different. Interactions o f waste and waste containers with groundwater, as well
as the generation and migration of gases, m a y be of particular c o n c e r n . In such a
case appropriate technical and geotechnical barriers have to be d e v e l o p e d which
take into consideration the barrier potential of the geological formations and the
possible effects u p o n geochemical site conditions. T h e s e are v e r y important
issues, n o t only with respect to the long-term safety, but also for the construction
and operating costs of an u n d e r g r o u n d waste repository. This applies in
particular to the design a n d construction of HLW- and SF-repositories.
References
BALTES, . 1995: Sicherheitskriterien fr Endlager, ATW, 9 5 / 3 .
BfS 1995: Morsleben Erfahrungen, Morsleben-Info, 3 .
BRENNECKE, E, KUGEL, K. & NOACK, W. 1997: Endlagerungsbedingungen Morsleben, ATW, 4.
BUHMANN, D., BRENNER, J. & STORCK, R. 1995: Long Term Safety Assessment of Disposal Concepts for
HLW and Spent Fuel in Rock Salt. - In: Proc. of the Fifth International Conference on Radioactive
Waste Management and Environmental Remediation (ICEM), Berlin, 03-09. 09. 1995, 617-623,
Berlin.
BUHMANN, D. 1996: Relevance of near field and far field effects to the release of radionuclides from
repositories with low level waste. - Intern. Symp. on Experience in the Planning and Operation
of Low Level Waste Disposal Facilities, 405-416, IAEA, Vienna, 17-21. June.
BUHMANN, D., NIES, A. & STORCK, R. 1991: Analyse der Langzeitsicherheit von Endlager-konzepten fr
wrmeerzeugende radioaktive Abflle. - GSF-Bericht 2 7 / 9 1 . GSF - Forschungszentrum fr
Umwelt und Gesundheit mbH, Braunschweig.
DECAMPS, F. 1996: Overview of radwaste repositories in Europe. - Nuclear Europe Worldscan, 3/4.
EBEL, . 1991: Das Endlager Morsleben fr LLW und MAW, ATW, 1 1 .
GSF 1982: The Asse Salt Mine - Research for the Final Disposal -, GSF Mnchen.
HIRSEKORN, R.-E, NIES, A., RAUSCH, H. & STORCK, R. 1991: Performance Assessment of Confinements for
Medium-Level and Alpha-Contaminated Waste (PACOMA), Rock Salt Option, EUR 13 634 EN. -
GSF-Bericht 1 2 / 9 1 , Kommission der Europischen Gemeinschaften, GSF-Forschungszentrum fr
Umwelt und Gesundheit GmbH, Brssel-Luxemburg.
IAEA 1991: Shallow Ground Disposal of Radioactive Wastes. A Guidebook. - Safety series 5 3 , Vienna.
LHRMANN, L . , NOSECK, U., STORCK, R. 2000: Spent Fuel Performance Assessment (SPA) for a
Repository in Crystalline Formations in Germany, GRS Nr-154, Gesellschaft fr Anlagen- und
Reaktorsicherheit mbH, Braunschweig.
PAPP, R. 1997: GEISHA - Gegenberstellung von Endlagerkonzepten in Salz und Hartgestein. FZKA-
PTE Nr. 3, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH, Karlsruhe.
Posiva O y 1996: Nuclear Waste Management of Olkiluoto and Loviisa Power Plants, annual review.
RTHEMEYER, H. 1994: Langzeitsicherheit von Endlagern, ATW, 2 .
STORCK, R. 1988: Performance Assessments for the Disposal of Low-level Wastes into an Iron-Ore
Formation. - In: Near Field Assessment of Repositories for Low and Medium Level Waste,
Proceedings of an NEA/OECD Workshop, Organization for Economic Co-Operation and
Development, Paris.
STORCK, R. & PREUSS, J. 1997: Langzeitsicherheitsnachweis fr das erste bundesdeutsche Endlager
Morsleben, Felsbau, 1 5 / 6 .
STORCK, R., ASCHENBACH, ] . , HIRSEKORN, R.P, NIES, A. & STELTE, N. 1988: Performance Assessment of
Geological Isolation Systems for Radioactive Waste (PAGIS): Disposal in Salt Formations. EUR 11
778 EN GSF-Bericht 23/88. Commission of the European Communities, Gesellschaft fr Strahlen-
und Umweltforschung mbH Mnchen, Brussels-Luxembourg.
VIRA, J. 1994: Disposal of radioactive wastes from the Finnish nuclear power plants. - Kerntechnik
59/1-2.
WITHERSPOON, P A . 1996: Geological Problems in Radioactive Waste Isolation, LBNL-38915, UC-814.
U - T h series disequilibrium studies on Boom

Clay - A natural analogue of radionuclide
migration in argillaceous sediments
A nemegyenslyi U-Th sorozat tanulmnyozsa a Boomi

Agyagban - a radioaktv elemvndorls termszetes analgija
agyagos ledkekben
1 1 1
M i e k e D E C R A E N - D o m i n i q u e D E L L E U Z E - Geert V O L C K A E R T -
1 1
Alain S N E Y E R S - Martin P u t
(4 Figures, 1 Plate)
Key words: natural analogue, argillaceous formation, U-Th series disequilibrium studies
.Trgyszavak: termszetes analgia, agyagos kpzdmny, nemegyenslyi U-Th sorozat tanulmnyozsa
Abstract
In 1996 the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre ( S C K ' C E N ) started a natural analogue study on
Boom Clay. T h e aim of this study is to increase confidence in the barrier function of argillaceous
sediments by investigating long-term geological processes. A detailed mineralogical and geochemical
investigation enables a study to be made of the natural distribution of the uranium and thorium in
the clay deposit. U-Th series disequilibrium studies are applied to study the mobility of U-Th-Ra
isotopes in Boom Clay. The first results indicate that variations in U-Th concentration are mainly
primary in origin, and relate to lithological variations. No indication for radionuclide mobility has
been observed in Boom Clay, with the exception of one layer with a coarser grain size, and therefore,
it is a zone of potentially higher permeability and pore water mobility.
sszefoglals
A Belga Atomkutat Kzpont ( S K C ' C E N ) 1996-ban kezdett bele a termszetes analgia kutatsba
a Boomi Agyagban. A kutats clja az agyagos ledkek gtknt val viselkedsnek tovbbi
megerstse hossz tv geolgiai folyamatok tanulmnyozsa ltal. A rszletes svnytani s
geokmiai kutats lehetv teszi az urn s a trium termszetes eloszlsnak tanulmnyozst az
agyagban. A nemegyenslyi U-Th sorozat tanulmnyozsa lehetv teszi az U-Th-Ra izotpok
mozgsnak megfigyelst a Boomi Agyagban. Az els eredmnyek arra utalnak, hogy az U-Th
koncentrcikban fellp eltrsek elsdlegesen a kzet keletkezsekor jnnek ltre, s kzettani
vltozatokhoz kapcsoldnak. A Boomi Agyagban nincs jele radioaktv elemvndorlsnak, egy
durvbb szemcsemret, valsznleg permebilisabb s prusvzzel tjrt rteg kivtelvel.
Introduction
I n e s t a b l i s h i n g the suitability of a geological site for the disposal o f radioactive

w a s t e , it is essential to c o n s i d e r the potential mobility of critical r a d i o n u c l i d e s
1
Belgian Nuclear Research Centre ( S C K ' C E N ) Waste and Disposal Department, Boeretang 200,
B-2400 Mol - Belgium
u n d e r representative geological conditions. This information is mainly derived

from experiments in the laboratory or field tracer tests. However, these ex-
p e r i m e n t s can only provide information which is limited in time a n d space.
T h e extrapolation of small-scale and short-term experiments to large-scale and
long-term conditions is not obvious. Therefore, any evidence for the long-term
safety of the repository derives from natural analogue studies; these which are
important for building confidence in long-term performance assessment. Such a
study allows information to be obtained with respect to the long-term behaviour
of radionuclides in realistic geological disposal conditions a n d over geological
time-periods relevant for the assessment of the safety of the disposal.
T h e Belgian Nuclear Research Centre ( S Q O C E N ) started a natural analogue
study on B o o m Clay in 1996. This study focuses on the distribution a n d mobility
of naturally occurring U-Th decay series isotopes in B o o m Clay. In this short
study, the first results on the geochemical behaviour of U and Th and their
daughter radionuclides in B o o m Clay, within time scales less than 1 Ma, are
presented.
G e o l o g i c a l setting and m a i n characteristics o f the B o o m C l a y
T h e B o o m Clay was formed during the Rupelian, L o w e r O l i g o c n e , in an open

marine shelf environment, 50 to 150 m deep (VANDENBERGHE & V A N ECHELPOEL
1987). At present, the B o o m Clay is situated in northern B e l g i u m (Fig. 1).
T h e B o o m C l a y is c h a r a c t e r i s e d b y a r a t h e r c o n s t a n t c h e m i c a l a n d
mineralogical composition throughout (VANDENBERGHE 1978). Variations in grain
size, organic matter, and carbonate content result in the typical layering of the
deposit (Photo 1). T h e variations reflect changes in local tectonics, eustacy and
climate, a n d are associated with Milankovitch cyclicity (VAN ECHELPOEL 1991).
Photo 1 Cyclic alternation of silry clays and clayey silts. Boom Clay quarry at Rumst, 30 km north of
Brussels
1 foto Kzetlisztes agyag s agyagos kzetliszt ciklikus vltakozsa a Boomi Agyag fejtsben Rumstnl,
Brsszeltl 30 km-re szakra
Fig. 1 Present-day outcrops of Rupelian Boom Clay in Belgium. To the north of the outcrops, the Boom Clay is present in the subsurface. The natural analogue
study has been performed on samples from the Mol-l borehole where the Boom Clay is present at a depth of 190 to 293 m
1. bra A rupeli Boomi Agyag jelenlegi felszni elfordulsa Belgiumban. A feltrstl szakra a Boomi Agyag a felszn alatt tallhat. A termszetes analgia kutatst a Mol-l
frs mintin vgeztk, ahol a Boomi Agyag 190-293 m-ben tallhat
Methods
S a m p l e s w e r e c o l l e c t e d from the M o l - 1 c o r e drilling, p e r f o r m e d for

N I R A S / O N D R A F in April 1 9 9 7 on the S C K C E N domain (Mol, Belgium, see
Fig. 1). T h e first set of samples (M-samples) was taken along the entire B o o m Clay
profile to d e t e r m i n e the 'average' geochemical composition of the clay deposit. In
addition, two samples were taken in the aquifers above a n d b e l o w the B o o m
Clay. For the selection of the second set of samples (MTP-samples) a particular
interval was sampled in more detail because of its higher uranium concentration.
This important geochemical change is present b e t w e e n 2 5 5 and 2 6 5 m depth in
the M o l - 1 borehole.
For analyses o f the solid phase, about 2 5 0 g of the sample was dried, p o w d e r e d
and h o m o g e n i s e d . The remaining part of the sample was used for pore water
analyses, the pore water being extracted by squeezing.
U-Th concentration Fig. 2 U-Th concentrations in

solid samples of the Mol-1
borehole (SCK*CEN domain,
Depth (m) Mol, Belgium)
Berchem
2. bra U-Th koncentrci a
Formation
Mol-1 frs szilrd mintiban
Eigenbilzen
(SKC-CEN kutatsi terlet, Mol,
Formation
Belgium)
transition
zone
Putte
Member
lerhagen
Mpmhfir
Belsele-Waas qq
Member
Ruisbroek
sands
U (ppm)
. Th (ppm)
So far o n l y solid phases h a v e been analysed. U and Th isotopes w e r e measured

by isotope dilution/alpha spectrometry and Ra isotopes w e r e m e a s u r e d using
non-destructive g a m m a spectrometry methods. T h e m e t h o d o l o g y is described in
detail by CUTTELL ( 1 9 8 3 ) , LALLY ( 1 9 9 2 ) and IVANOVICH & MuRRAy ( 1 9 9 2 ) .
D E CRAEN, M. et ai: U-Th series disequilibrium studies on Boom Clay 223
Results and discussion
U-Th distribution in Boom Clay
In order to study the U-Th distribution in B o o m Clay, U and Th concentrations

have b e e n measured in solid samples of the M o l - l borehole. The results are
presented in Figure 2.
Bulk B o o m Clay samples typically contain between 9 and 12 p p m Th while the
U concentration is generally in the range of 3 to 4 ppm. The general shape of the
U-Th concentration profiles reflects decreasing U and Th concentrations towards
the u p p e r and lower stratigraphie levels of the B o o m Clay. Superimposed on the
general shape, a few peaks of higher U or Th concentration can be recognised.
The most important level with higher U concentration, containing up to 13 ppm
U, occurs at the base of the Putte M e m b e r (Fig. 2).
The variations in U and Th concentration in the B o o m Clay profile mainly
reflect lithological variations in the deposit and may b e considered to b e primary
in origin. Th is mainly absorbed into clay minerals, although few Th-bearing
heavy minerals have been observed as well. U is associated with organic matter,
carbonates, pyrite, and U-bearing h e a v y minerals (YOSHIDA et al. 1991). However,
towards the upper and lower stratigraphie levels of the B o o m Clay, the influence
of the over- and underlying aquifers might also have influenced the distribution
of uranium. Groundwaters in these aquifers have probably interacted with the
adjacent B o o m Clay layers and h e n c e , over long periods of time, h a v e
redistributed or removed some of the original uranium.
U-Th series disequilibrium studies
U-Th series disequilibrium studies have been performed to study the mobility
of natural U and Th in the B o o m Clay on a geological time scale. The
radiochemical da'ta of the solid samples of the M o l - l borehole are presented in
Figure 3. T h e error bars in the figure represent 2 a standard deviation un
certainties due to counting statistics only.
In the entire B o o m Clay profile, the 234TJ/238TJ t i v i t y ratios are all close to
ac
2 3 4
unity within the 2 a uncertainty, although there might be some evidence for U
2 3
excess in some samples. The 234TJ/238TJ data are c o m p l e m e n t e d b y the ^ T h / ^
activity ratios; these are generally indicative of radiometric equilibrium although
2 3 0 2 3 4
some ratios are rather low (ratios b e t w e e n 0.8 and 1). S u c h low T h / U activity
ratios are indicative of 'geologically recent' U uptake from the pore water,
2 3 4
m e a n i n g that local mobile U has b e e n immobilised. The U excess in these
precipitates can be explained by a-recoil. Pore water is often characterised by
2 3 4
U excess as a result of a-recoil, either by recoil injection into surrounding fluids
or by injection into neighbouring solids, followed by leaching (FLEISHER 1988).
After the uranium has been immobilised, the precipitate will be in equilibrium
2 3 4 2 3 8
with the pore water, and h e n c e it will also have U / U activity ratios > 1.
2 2 6 2 3 0
From the R a / T h activity ratios, it is apparent that Ra isotope mobility in
B o o m Clay is considerably more widespread than that of U. Although the
2 2 6 2 3 0
uncertainties of Ra activities are rather large, significant variations in R a / T h
2 3 8 2 3 2
Fig. 3 Isotope activity ratios for isotopes of the U and T h decay chains in solid samples of the Mol-1 borehole ( S C K ' C E N domain, Mol, Belgium)
2 38 232
3. bra Az l - s Th bomlsi sor izotpjaira vontakoz izotp aktivitsi arny a Mol-1 frs szilrd kzetmintiban (SCK'CEN kutatsi terlet, Mol, Belgium)
D E C/MEN, M. et al: U-Th series disequilibrium studies on Boom Clay 225
activity ratios can be recognised. These variations seem to b e lithology controlled.

2 2 6
R a deficiency in the most silty layers is explained by the preferential loss of
2 2 6
R a within these more permeable layers. Migration into the n e i g h b o u r i n g
2 2 6
clayey layers was quickly followed by sorption or redeposition of R a .
2 3 2
For the T h decay series isotopes of B o o m Clay samples, a state of secular
2 3 2 2 2 8
equilibrium is generally present between T h and its daughter isotopes Ra
2 2 8
and T h within the large 2a uncertainties. This m e a n s that the geological
system has b e e n rather stable for ^ R a / ^ T h and ^ T h / ^ R a pairs.
In the Eigenbilzen Formation and the Ruisbroek sands, respectively over- and
2 2 6 2 3 0
underlying the B o o m Clay, the R a / T h activity ratios are indicative of a large
2 2 6 2 3 0 2 2 6 2 3 0
disequilibrium b e t w e e n R a and its parent Th. R a / T h activity ratios as
2 3 0
large as 2.3 h a v e b e e n measured and either suggest the loss of T h in the
2 2 6 2 2 6 2 3 8
aquifers, or accumulation of R a . However, from the R a / U activity ratios >
2, it is clear that Ra accumulation occurred within the lithologies over- a n d
underlying the B o o m Clay. Significant departures from unity are also observed
2 2 8 2 3 2 2 2 8 2 2 8
for the R a / T h and T h / R a activity ratios.
An interesting observation is that the variations in total U and Th con
centrations are not reflected in the isotope activity ratios. A detail of the U-rich
interval at the base of the Putte M e m b e r (Mol-1 borehole) is given in Figure 4.
From this figure, it is clear that the U concentration at the base of the Putte
M e m b e r is not associated with radioactive disequilibrium, suggesting that the U
concentration was not the result of secondary processes, at least not within the
last 1 Ma. Note that in the figure the results of one sample are missing - this was
because they w e r e lost due to pollution with drill-mud.
In Figure 4, o n e sample in the B o o m Clay profile attracts the attention b e c a u s e
of the large radiometric disequilibrium between U and its daughter isotopes. This
2 3 0 2 3 4
sample, taken from the 'double band', has T h / U activity ratios significantly
> 1 , a n d ^ R a / ^ T h activity ratio significantly < 1 . T h e s e data suggest that s o m e
isotopic fractionation has occurred. T h e 'double b a n d ' consists of two silty layers,
and is considered to be a zone of higher permeability and pore water mobility.
This probably caused the preferential leaching of uranium, as indicated by the
2 3 0 2 3 4 2 2 6 2 3 0
T h / U isotope activity ratio being significantly larger than 1. T h e R a / T h
2 3 8
isotope activity ratio of 0.69 also shows radiometric disequilibrium of U a n d its
2 2 6
daughter isotope R a . As with the uranium, pore waters m o v i n g preferentially
2 2 6
along this p e r m e a b l e layer, leached out Ra.
Conclusions
The distribution of U and Th in the B o o m Clay is primary in origin. Variations

in the U-Th concentration are mainly related to lithological variations: U is
mainly associated with organic matter, carbonates, pyrite and some U-bearing
h e a v y minerals, while Th is mainly absorbed into clay minerals.
Most daughter/parent activity ratios measured in bulk B o o m Clay solid
samples are equal to unity within the 2 a quoted uncertainties. This m e a n s that
no important mobility of the U-Th decay series isotopes has been d e t e r m i n e d in
Fig. 4 U-Th concentrations in solid samples of the U-nch interval at the base of the Putte Member (Mol-1 borehole) and associated isotope activity ratios for
2 3 8 2 3 2
isotopes of the U and Th decay chain
13 Z31
4. bra U-Th koncentrci a Putte Tagozat bzisnl tv U-gazdag intervallum szilrd mintiban (Mol-1. frs) s a "U , Th hasadsi sor izotp/ra vonatkoz,
kapcsold izotp aktivitsi hnyados.
DE CRAEN, M. et ai: U-Th series disequilibrium studies on Boom Clay 227
the B o o m Clay, at least for the last million years. O n e exception is present in the
'double band' which consists of two silty layers, and which is a z o n e of higher
permeability and pore water mobility. This probably caused the preferential
2 3 0 2 3 4
leaching of uranium and radium, as indicated by the T h / U and ^ R a / ^ T h
isotope activity ratio, which is significantly larger than 1 a n d smaller than 1
respectively.
In the Eigenbilzen Formation and the Ruisbroek sands, aquifers over- and
underlying the B o o m Clay, respectively, there is some evidence of Ra mobility.
This m a y be a result of pore water mobility and associated leaching of radio-
nuclides in the aquifers.
This study gives a general picture of the distribution and mobility of U and Th
in the B o o m Clay. A next step is the investigation of separated mineral phases, in
order to b e able to understand better the distribution and mobility of U and Th
on a microscale. Chemical sequential leaching separation will result in different
phases (e.g. ion-exchangeable, absorbed, crystalline, a m o r p h o u s Fe/Mn oxides,
a n d resistant), from w h i c h the isotopic distribution can b e s u b s e q u e n t l y
m e a s u r e d . T h e latter will b e refined b y additional m i n e r a l o g i c a l a n d
p e t r o g r a p h i c a l investigation a n d associated m i c r o - a n a l y s i s (e.g. optical
microscopy, S E M , B S E M , E D X ) . Together with the results of the pore water
analyses, these data should enable to better understanding of the distribution
a n d mobility of U and Th in the B o o m Clay.
Acknowledgements
N I R A S / O N D R A F is gratefully acknowledged for the financial support it

provided for this research. We acknowledge with thanks AEA Technology at
Harwell, U K w h o carried out isotopic analyses u n d e r subcontract to Enterpris
Limited, dr. M . IVANOVICH is to be thanked for the interesting discussions on the
interpretation of the radiochemical data.
References
CUTTELL, J. C . 1 9 8 3 : Application of uranium and thorium series isotopes to the study of certain British
aquifers. - University of Birmingham, Unpublished PhD Thesis in Geology, 2 6 9 p.
FLEISHER, R. L . 1 9 8 8 : Alpha-recoil damage: Relation to isotopic disequilibrium and leaching of
radionuclides. - Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 5 2 , 1 4 5 9 - 1 4 6 6 .
IVANOVICH, M . & MURRAY, A. 1 9 9 2 : Spectroscopic methods. - In: IVANOVICH, M . & HARMON, R. S. (Eds):
Uranium-series disequilibrium: Applications to Earth, Marine, and Environmental Sciences. Second
edition Chap. 5 , 1 2 7 - 1 7 3 . Clarendon Press, Oxford.
LALLY, A.E. 1 9 9 2 : Chemical procedures. - In: IVANOVICH, M . & HARMON, R. S. (Eds): Uranium-series
disequilibrium: Applications to Earth, Marine, and Environmental Sciences. Second edition Chap. 4 ,
9 5 - 1 2 6 . Clarendon Press, Oxford.
VANDENBERGHE, N. 1 9 7 8 : Sedimentology of the Boom Clay (Rupelian) in Belgium. - Verhand. Kon. Acad.
Wetenschappen Blgi 4 0 , 1 4 7 , 1 3 7 p.
VANDENBERGHE, N. & VAN ECHELPOEL, E. 1 9 8 7 : Field Guide to the Rupelian Stratotype. - Bulletin van de
Belgische Vereniging voor Geologie 9 6 / 4 , 3 2 5 - 3 3 7 .
VAN ECHELPOEL, E . 1 9 9 1 : Kwantitatieve Cyclostratigrafie van de Formatie van Boom (Rupeliaan,

Belgi) - De Methodologie van het onderzoek van Sedimentaire Cycly via Walshanalyse.
Unpublished PhD. K. U. Leuven.
YOSHIDA H., MONSECOUR, M. & BASHAM, I. R. 1 9 9 1 : Use of Microscopic Techniques in Migration studies
on Boom Clay. - Radiochimica Acta 52/53, 1 3 3 - 1 3 8 .
Romanian LILW disposal - site selection,

characterization and investigation programme
Kis- s kzepes radioaktivits hulladklerak Romniban -

telephely kivlasztsi, jellemzsi s kutatsi program
1 2
Ion D U R D U N - Cristian M R U N T E A N U
(3 Figures)
Key words: Low and intermediate level radioactive waste, surface repository, geological barrier,
site investigation
Kulcsszavak: kis- s kzepes radioaktivits hulladk, felszni trol, fldtani gt, telephely kutats
Abstract
The first reactor of the Cernavoda N P P was commissioned in 1996, but the radioactive waste
programme started in 1992. Geological investigation works have been initiated to select and describe
the location for a low and medium radioactive waste final disposal facility. The selection of a surface
repository type has taken into consideration the experience of other countries, such as France and
Spain, whose positive practice in this field is applicable in Romania as well. IAEA guidelines were also
used in this process. The site selection process included 37 potential sites, 2 - 3 candidate sites and one
preferred site (Saligny) and was based on specific criteria: lithological, tectonical, seismological,
hydrogeological, climatic, transport facilities and public acceptance (DURDUN & MARUNTEANU 1997).
Starting in 1996, a complex and detailed site and laboratory investigation programme has been in
progress with the purpose of determining the characteristics of the site and selecting the best area for
the construction of the disposal units.
sszefoglals
A Cernavoda Atomerm els reaktort 1996-ban helyeztk zembe, de a radioaktv hulladk
program mr 1992-ben elkezddtt. A fldtani kutats clja a kis- s kzepes radioaktivits
hulladkok vgs elhelyezsre szolgl telephely kivlasztsa s jellemzse volt. A felszni tpus
trolra m s orszgok, pl. Franciaorszg s Spanyolorszg tapasztalatainak figyelembevtelvel esett
a vlaszts, akiknek az ilyen terleten szerzett gyakorlata Romniban is alkalmazhat. Az eljrs
sorn a Nemzetkzi Atomenergia gynksg irnyelveit kvettk. A telephely kivlasztsakor 37
esetleges helysznt, 2 - 3 lehetsges helysznt s egy alkalmas objektumot (Saligny) vlasztottak ki
specilis kritriumok - kzettan, tektonika, szeizmolgia, hidrogeolgia, klma, szlltsi lehetsgek
s lakossgi elfogads - alapjn (DURDUN & MARUNTEANU 1997). Az 1996-ban elkezddtt komplex s
rszletes telephely- s laboratriumi vizsglat programnak az a clja, hogy meghatrozza a telephely
jellegzetessgeit s kivlassza a trolhely megptshez legmegfelelbb terletet.
1
Institute for Geotechnical and Geophysical Studies - GEOTEC Bucharest, Str. Vasile Lascar,
No. 5-7, 70211, Bucharest, Romania, e-mail: geotec@pcnet.ro
2
University of Bucharest, Str. Traian Vuia, No. 6, 70139, Bucharest, Romania, e-mail:
cristian@gg.unibuc.ro
Introduction
In 1992 geological investigation works were initiated in order to select and

characterize the location for low and m e d i u m radioactive waste disposal.
T h e m a i n a d v a n t a g e s of a surface r e p o s i t o r y w h i c h w e r e taken into
consideration were: the possibility of long-term surveillance, a facility for
simulating the migration of the specific radionuclides u n d e r relatively simple
geological conditions, and the possibility of intervention in case of major
accidents.
T h e region of Dobrogea was c h o s e n for the repository a n d important
advantages can be mentioned: the low rainfall as a factor reducing the spread in
t h e e n v i r o n m e n t of the specific r a d i o n u c l i d e s , a n d the relatively d e e p
u n d e r g r o u n d water level. Additionally, special consideration was given to the
land adjoining the nuclear p o w e r plant because of the potential benefits of c o -
location, particularly in relation to reducing the potential b u r d e n of public
acceptance a n d waste transportation requirements.
Disposal system
T h e disposal system is based on the multi-barrier concept. T h e first barrier is

formed b y the immobilization matrix and the concrete container holding the
drums. T h e second barrier is formed by the disposal structures, the cover and the
infiltration control system. Finally, the third, or geological barrier is constituted
by the surrounding land (the unsaturated zone and the red clay layer, for the
preferred site). T h e n e w repository, to be built n e a r the C e r n a v o d a N P P site, will
receive low and intermediate level waste from p o w e r plant operation and plant
decommissioning.
Site selection
T h e site selection process included 37 potential sites, 2 - 3 candidate sites and

o n e preferred site (Saligny) and was based on specific criteria (lithological,
tectonical, seismological, hydrogeological, climatic, transport facilities a n d public
acceptance).
T h e site selection for the n e w repository was i m p l e m e n t e d according to the
IAEA Safety Guide and the strategy for the selection a n d investigation of a
surface repository. This followed the p r o g r a m m e p r o p o s e d b y G E O T E C
Bucharest, in collaboration with other institutions, a n d is presented in the
Figure 1.
Site investigation and evaluation
T h e n e w site (Saligny) was evaluated according to the IAEA Safety Guide.

D u r i n g the site confirmation stage, the following investigations w e r e available:
DURDUN, I. & MRUNTEANU, : Romanian ULW disposal 231
DOBROGEA REGION
g REGIONAL MAPPING 1992

> Geological m a p 1:200 0 0 0 - characteristic cross section
TEctonic m a p 1:500 0 0 0 - active faults and z o n e s
cr> U COLLABORATION:
< H R O M A N I A N G E O L O G I C A L INSTITUTE, EARTH P H Y S I C S N A T I O N A L INSTITUTE
W en
OS
< S C R E E N I N G 37 POTENTIAL SITES - SITE S E L E C T I O N P R O C E S S

3 CANDIDATE SITES: CERNAVODA, SALIGNY, MIREASA
G E N E R A L F I E L D INVESTIGATION 1 9 9 3 - 1 9 9 4
3 drillings 1-2 refraction sections
H laboratory tests, chemical a n d d e u t e r i u m analyses
C O L L A B O R A T I O N : I.N.R. PITESTI, B U C H A R E S T UNIVERSITY, C I T O N ( R E N E L P R O G R A M M E
g C O O R D I N A T O R ) . I.T.I.M. CLUJ
<; 2 CANDIDATE SITES: CERNAVODA, SALIGNY

pJ3 F I E L D INVESTIGATION 1 9 9 5 - 1 9 9 6
Piezometric drillings with soil a n d w a t e r sampling
<< 2 g r o u p s of 3 drillings w i t h infiltrometric tests, electrometric n e t w o r k (300 m ) , refraction seismic a n d crosshole in
situ" tests on experimental areas in loessoid soils ( c o m p a c t e d use or no a d m i x t u r e s )
HJH L a b o r a t o r y geotechnical tests, radionuclide migration test computing: w a t e r circulation in u n s a t u r a t e d soils
U (SUTRA and S W M S - 2 D software), seismic response
C O L L A B O R A T I O N : I.N.R. PITESTI, B U C H A R E S T UNIVERSITY, C I T O N ( R E N E L P R O G R A M M E
C O O R D I N A T O R ) , ISPIF B U C U R E S T I , S T E V E N S O N & ASSOCIATES, K A R L S R U H E U N I V E R S I T Y
G U I D E L I N E S : IAEA, A N D R A - F R A N C E
2 - 2 SELECTED SITES - CERNAVODA, SALIGNY

1 PREFERRED SITE - SALIGNY -1997
DETAILED INVESTIGATIONS 1 9 9 7 - 1 9 9 8
1. Selection of the o p t i m u m 2. Stabilization of loessoid 3. Hydrogeological 4. Specific radionuclides

perimeter for disposal cells soils - experimental area to characteristics: migration tests in
- m a x i m u m thickness of improve: a. unsaturated z o n e - geological layers
unsaturated zone including - bearing capacity meteolisimetric - Pitesti NRI collaboration.
red clay. - erosion resistance measurements.
- retention capacity. b. local aquifers inside
Admixtures: aptian s a n d y lenses and
- cement e o c e n e limestone
- CONSOLID - special piezometric
- bentonit. drillings with permeability
Static a n d d y n a m i c tests.
characteristics of geological c. main aquifer inside
layers barremian limestone -
special piezometric drillings
with permeability tests.
5. Modelling of c o n t a m i n e d w a t e r circulation - C I T O N , N R I , Bucharest University collaboration B u c h a r e s t

Technical University in o r d e r to a p p r o v e the P R E L I M I N A R Y SAFETY ASSESSMENT
1 CONFIRMED SITE - SALIGNY
Fig. 171LW near surface repository for the Cernavoda NPP Geotec Investigation Programme
1. bra A Cernavodai Atomerm kis- s kzepes aktivits radioaktiv hulladknak felsznkzeli trolsra
vonatkoz Gcotechnikai Kutatsi Programja
Hydrogeology
Unsaturated zone:
- water infiltration in natural and compacted loessoid soil by lisimetric
measurement;
- permeability tests in boreholes and laboratory tests;
- suction tests on borehole samples.
Saturated zone:
- 50 drillings in the area for the identification of local aquifers and a main
aquifer;
- permeability tests on each borehole;
- chemistry of the groundwater;
- 5 drillings for the measurement of the groundwater level in local aquifers;
- 3 drillings for Eocene aquifer;
- 5 specially equipped drillings measuring for the groundwater level in the
main aquifers;
- estimation of groundwater flow velocity and direction;
- the inventory of water users;
Geoengineering
- 30 drillings in loessoid soil to perform the compressibility zoning and

evaluation of geotechnical parameters;
- experimental area in the field to improve the loessoid soil-bearing capacity,
using admixtures;
- a seismic investigation crosshole p r o g r a m m e to evaluate d y n a m i c
characteristics.
Compliance with safety criteria
The compliance with safety criteria will be demonstrated using:

- computer models for safety assessment of the repository;
- laboratory m e a s u r e m e n t s (natural and engineered barrier performances,
solubility and sorption);
- field works (water infiltration rate, groundwater circulation and chemistry,
humidity).
The following areas were addressed by laboratory-based experiments:

- solubility and sorption;
- geological media characteristics.
Consideration has b e e n given to following field-based experiments:

- geology identification: (mineralogical and physic-chemical properties of the
core samples);
Fig. 2 Variation of some physical properties of the soils in the drilling FC11
2. bra Az FCll frsbl szrmaz talajmintk nhny fizikai tulajdonsgnak vltozsa

= Hydrostatic level
Ftg. 3 Variation of some physical parametes of the geological formation and of the distribution coefficient for specific radionuclides in the drilling FC23
3. bra A fldtani kpzdmnyek nhny fizikai paramternek s nhny radioaktv izotp eloszlsi egytthatjnak vltozsa az FC23-as frsban
DURDUN, I. & MRUNTEANU, : Romanian LILW disposal 235
- permeability/porosity: (porosity, pore size distribution, permeability and

suction data of core samples); variations of some physical properties of soils
in a drilling are presented in Figure 2;
- water infiltration in loessoid soils;
- u n d e r g r o u n d water circulation test in main aquifer and local aquifer;
- i m p r o v e m e n t of bearing capacity and erosion resistance of the loessoid soil
using compaction with admixtures.
Computational modelling
The computational modelling was based on some modelling p r o g r a m m e s :

- D U S T (T. Sullivan, B N L - USA) for radionuclide migration modelling;
- SUTRA; C H A I N - 2 D and S W M S - 2 D for hydrogeological modelling.
The D U S T code was included in the methodology for the safety evaluation of
the repository. T h e code applicability for the source term modelling" was
verified. To i n c r e a s e , the level of c o n f i d e n c e , a calibration p h a s e w a s
implemented.
An example of variation in the distribution coefficient for specific radionuclides
and of s o m e physical parameters of the geological formations is s h o w n in the
Figure 3.
Modelling of the near-field (unsaturated zone) was performed using as an
input data an infiltration rate of 3 0 % from the multiannual precipitation quantity
and the m e n t i o n e d c o m p u t e r models. It was estimated that Tritium will not reach
the groundwater level in 300 years, both with a c o m p a c t e d loess pillow (3 m
thickness) as foundation layer and in natural conditions (Fig. 4). Using water
chemistry data, it was proved that the local aquifers are not linked.
LEGEND
1 - Unsaturated zone II - Saturated zone
a - loess 2 middle S = 0.2-0.4 prequaternary clays with sand lenses
3 lower S = 0.8 III - Main aquifer - barremian limestone
b - quaternary- red clay S = 0.9-1.0 Compacted loess effect (3 m thickness)
- prequaternary clays Natural conditions
GV/L Underground water level
Fig. 4 Tritium migration after 300 years
4. bra A trcium migrcija 300 v alatt

Fig. 5 Maximum extension of H contaminant in the Saligny site ( C H A I N - 2 D software, transverse section)
3
5. bra A H szennyezds
3 maximlis elterjedse a Saligny telephelyen (CHAIN-ID software, keresztmetszet)
DURDUN, I. & MRUNTEANU, : Romanian LILW disposal 237
The m a x i m u m extent of 3H c o n t a m i n a n t in the Saligny site (CHAIN-2D

software, t r a n s v e r s e section) is also s h o w n in the Figure 5, t a k i n g into
consideration a continuous infiltration ratio of 150 mm/year a n d a scenario with
two destroyed cells.
Conclusions
R a t h e r t h a n c o n c l u s i o n s , o n e result o f o u r r e s e a r c h w h i c h h a s to b e
e m p h a s i s e d is that the behavior of the geological e n v i r o n m e n t as geological
barrier must be considered an important criterion of acceptance for the facilities
of a LILW repository.
Reference
DURDUN, I., MARUNTEANU, C . & GHEORGHE, A. 1 9 9 7 : O n the radioactive waste final disposal in
geological formations from Romania. Proceedings International Symposium "Engineering
Geology and the Environment", Athens, Greece, June 2 3 - 2 7 , 1 9 9 7 , 1 7 9 9 - 1 8 0 3 , A. A. BALKEMA,
1997.
International co-operation regarding site

characterisation and site evaluation for
geological repository systems for long-life
radioactive waste
Hossz lettartam radioaktv hulladkok fldtani

trolrendszereinek telephely-jellemzsre s rtkelsre
vonatkoz nemzetkzi egyttmkds
1
Philippe L A L I E U X
Key words: Radioactive waste, Disposal, site characterization, International co-operation
Trgyszavak: Radioaktv hulladk, trols, trolhely jellemzs, nemzetkzi egyttmkds
Abstract
This general paper is principally aimed at providing examples of O E C D Nuclear Energy Agency
initiatives in the field of the characterisation and evaluation of potential sites for the geological
disposal of long-life radioactive waste. The examples focus on the geoscientific aspects of geological
disposal and the added value of addressing them in an international context. Most of the initiatives
chosen have resulted, or will soon result, in open publications. Following introductory information
on the O E C D Nuclear Energy Agency, the paper also presents an overview of some of the key
challenges that are, or will have to be, faced in the implementation of the geological disposal of long-
life waste.
sszefoglals
Ez a cikk alapveten az O E C D Atomenergia gynksg pldit kvnja segtsgl hvni a hossz

lettartam radioaktv hulladkok fldtani elhelyezse, a lehetsges telephelyek jellemzse s
rtkelse tmban. A pldk a fldtani elhelyezs fldtudomnyos oldalra sszpontostanak,
amihez jelents pluszt ad az a tny, hogy a problmk nemzetkzi sszefggsben kerlnek tertkre.
A vlasztott pldk tbbsge mr megjelent, vagy a kzeljvben jelenik meg publikciknt. Az
OECD Atomenergia gynksgrl szl bevezet utn a cikk egy ttekintst is kzl azokrl a
legfontosabb problmkrl, amikkel a hossz lettartam hulladkok fldtani elhelyezse kapcsn
szembeslhetnk.
Radioactive waste management at the NEA
The N u c l e a r E n e r g y A g e n c y (NEA) is a s e m i - a u t o n o m o u s b o d y w h i c h was

established in 1958 w i t h i n the framework of the Organisation for E c o n o m i c C o
o p e r a t i o n a n d D e v e l o p m e n t ( O E C D ) . N E A m e m b e r s h i p today consists of 27
countries a n d r e p r e s e n t s 8 5 % of the w o r l d ' s installed n u c l e a r capacity.
^ E C D Nuclear Energy Agency, Radiation Protection and Waste Management Division

T h e primary objective of the NEA is to promote co-operation a m o n g the

g o v e r n m e n t s of its m e m b e r countries in furthering the d e v e l o p m e n t of nuclear
p o w e r as a safe, environmentally acceptable and economical e n e r g y source. This
is achieved notably by:
- encouraging harmonisation of national regulatory policies a n d practices
(with particular reference to the safety of nuclear installations) protection of
h u m a n a g a i n s t i o n i s i n g radiation, the p r e s e r v a t i o n of the e n v i r o n m e n t ,
radioactive waste m a n a g e m e n t , and nuclear third party liability a n d insurance;
- assessing the contribution of nuclear p o w e r to overall e n e r g y supply;
- developing exchanges of scientific and technical information, particularly
through participation in c o m m o n services;
- setting up international research and d e v e l o p m e n t p r o g r a m m e s and joint
undertakings.
In these a n d related tasks, the NEA works in close collaboration with the
E u r o p e a n Commission (EC) and the International Atomic E n e r g y A g e n c y (IAEA).
T h e w o r k of the NEA in the area of waste is guided by the Radioactive Waste
M a n a g e m e n t Committee (RWMC), a forum of senior representatives from
i m p l e m e n t i n g agencies, regulatory authorities, policy-makers a n d relevant R & D
institutions. T h e cross-party representation of industry, safety authorities, and
g o v e r n m e n t a l policy bodies, and the wide range of expertise it musters amongst
the N E A M e m b e r s countries, make the R W M C a uniquely placed international
forum for addressing issues in radioactive waste m a n a g e m e n t . T h e Committee
assists M e m b e r countries by providing objective guidance on the solution of
radioactive waste problems, and promotes safety in the short- a n d long-term
m a n a g e m e n t of radioactive waste. The focus of the R W M C effort is on the
identification and pursuit of issues in w h i c h there is pan-national interest and
w h i c h are important for developing sufficient confidence in the safety and social
acceptability of waste m a n a g e m e n t options.
In recent years, the programmes u n d e r auspicies of the R W M C have focused
o n both technical and non-technical aspects of the deep geological disposal of
long-life radioactive waste. T h e rationale for this focus is multiple:
- considerable experience exists in the handling, treatment, transportation and
storage of all types of waste,
- disposal facilities for short-life waste are already in operation in m a n y
countries, at surface level such (as at the El Cabril and the C e n t r e de l'Aube
facilities in Spain and France respectively), or in shallow u n d e r g r o u n d facilities
(such as in Forsmark, S w e d e n (SFR) a n d at Olkiluoto (VLJ) and Loviisa in
Finland),
- geological disposal of high-level, long-life waste has not b e e n i m p l e m e n t e d
yet, apart from one notable exception: the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)
located in N e w Mexico (United States), w h e r e transuranic waste has been
disposed of since M a r c h 1999 in b e d d e d salt at a depth of 650 m; and
- the technical confidence in the long-term safety and feasibility of geological
disposal is n o t always shared b y other stakeholders, in particular the general
public.
LALIEUX, P.: International co-operation regarding site characterisation 241
K e y c h a l l e n g e s related to the geological d i s p o s a l

of h i g h - l e v e l , long-life waste
This paper does not intend to detail all actual and potential, technical and non
technical challenges that are, or will have to be, faced in the various decision
m a k i n g and implementing steps of geological disposal. However, in order to put
the specific geoscientific aspects of disposal into perspective, it is worthwhile
summarising some of these k e y challenges.
In recent years, waste m a n a g e m e n t programmes have focused on the technical
aspects of deep underground disposal of long-life radioactive waste. Today, a
c o n s e n s u s exists b e t w e e n experts in various countries w h i c h accepts that that
sites can be properly identified a n d characterised, that geological repositories can
be designed so that no short-term detriment to populations will result from the
waste disposal, and that an acceptable level of safety is provided for times far into
the future (OECD/NEA 1991, 1999a). There also exists a consensus, a m o n g the
experts, that the current generation, which has benefited from the nuclear energy
produced, should provide future generations with the m e a n s to dispose of the
waste p e r m a n e n t l y ( O E C D / N E A 1995). R e c e n t setbacks in disposal p r o g r a m m e s
have not b e e n based on technical arguments, but rather political and societal
aspects. T h e waste m a n a g e m e n t c o m m u n i t y must therefore find n e w w a y s to
address the concerns of all stakeholders in the repository d e v e l o p m e n t process.
A m o n g the general strategic challenges linked with the above consideration are
the following:
- the establishment of, and confidence-building in the entire step-wise process
of decision-making; this should take into account technical aspects of repository
d e v e l o p m e n t a n d more qualitative arguments, as well as consider the active
i n v o l v e m e n t of all stakeholders, including the general public;
- the assessment of the place of waste disposal within the broader debate on
environmental and sustainability issues, including the demonstration that safe
and environmentally acceptable strategies can be applied;
- the comparison of the principles of radioactive and non-radioactive waste
m a n a g e m e n t and of the evaluation of their impacts; and
- the evaluation of the impact of financial pressures on waste m a n a g e m e n t
p r o g r a m m e s - e.g. due to deregulation of electricity markets - as well as the
impact of waste m a n a g e m e n t on the continued e c o n o m i c sustainability of
nuclear power.
From a more technical point of view, some of the k e y challenges could be
synthesised as follows:
- the establishment of technical confidence in long-term safety assessment in
the presence of uncertainties inherent in natural systems and very l o n g time-
scales;
- the adequate consideration of the interfaces b e t w e e n the various natural and
m a n - m a d e c o m p o n e n t s of the repository system; and
- the appropriate consideration of site-specific geoscientific information in the
preparation of a safety case; this includes (i) the avoidance of over-conservatism
w h i c h m a y lead to the effective disregard of the geosphere as a barrier, a n d also
to bias in the sensitivity analysis, and (ii) the use of large a m o u n t s of soft"
information*.
NEA initiatives regarding site characterisation and evaluation
Introduction
A large propotion of N E A initiatives regarding geological disposal site

characterisation a n d evaluation has b e e n conducted u n d e r the auspices of the
C o - o r d i n a t i n g G r o u p on Site Evaluation a n d Design of E x p e r i m e n t s for
Radioactive Waste Disposal (SEDE); this operates u n d e r R W M C guidance. T h e
main aim of S E D E work could be summarised as the promotion of actions that
e n h a n c e confidence in the process of site characterisation, leading to site
evaluation and the determination of site suitability. This is in the general
framework of the assessment of the long-term safety of d e e p repository systems
for radioactive waste. Most SEDE activities are closely linked with those of the
N E A Performance Assessment Advisory Group (PAAG).
As most national p r o g r a m m e s are shifting from a research phase to a
development and demonstration phase for potentially suitable sites, at the S E D E
level the following needs have arisen:
- to emphasise the development of relevant activities to the end-use of site
characterisation - i.e. site evaluation and performance assessment - therefore, to
foster co-operation b e t w e e n site characterisation and safety-analysis specialists
on the basis of site-specific geoscientific information;
- to integrate design and construction issues, given that site characterisation
data are vital to the detailed design of the repository concept and of the
engineered barrier system; and
- to consider the interfaces b e t w e e n the various c o m p o n e n t s of the repository
system and their interactions with the geosphere.
In order to reflect the n e e d s a n d questions detailed above, the S E D E

concentrates its priorities and initiatives on three specific areas:
- u n d e r g r o u n d testing;
- roles of the geosphere in safety assessment; and
- interface b e t w e e n the geosphere and the engineered barrier system.
Furthermore, a specific application of the above working areas has b e e n
developed in the field of argillaceous media u n d e r the auspices of the S E D E
Working Group on M e a s u r e m e n t and Physical Understanding of G r o u n d w a t e r
Flow T h r o u g h Argillaceous Media (informally n a m e d the Clay Club").
* Hard" data are quantitative measurements that have a clear relationship to disposal safety-
relevant features and processes represented in assessment models (e.g. hydrogeological data from the
testing in boreholes and tunnels). Soft" data include both qualitative information (such as expert
judgement and geological experience) and also quantitative information that is either weakly
correlated to the attributes of interest in assessment models (e.g. geophysical and geochemical data),
or describes the attribute of interest through constitutive equations (e.g. hydraulic heads to hydraulic
conductivity).
LALIEUX, P.: International co-operation regarding site characterisation 243
Underground testing
The main aims of the activities related to u n d e r g r o u n d testing for geological

disposal are to build confidence in in-situ characterisation methodologies, a n d to
lend further technical support to testing programmes.
International Stripa Project

O n e of the most significant activities developed in this area u n d e r N E A
auspices was the International Stripa Project, which ran from 1976 to 1992. Nine
countries co-operated on this underground research laboratory project. The
latter w a s established in the former iron mine of Stripa, located in S w e d e n at
depths b e t w e e n 360 and 410 m, in granitic settings. A m o n g the project outcomes
were ( O C D / N E A & SKB 1993):
- the development of characterisation techniques (e.g. borehole radar and
seismics);
- the underscoring of the importance of matrix diffusion for radionuclide
retardation and of groundwater flow channelling;
- the performance of single fracture and 3 D tracer tests; and
- the d e v e l o p m e n t of sealing systems for disposal holes and galleries.
The N E A is not currently carrying out an u n d e r g r o u n d research project.
However, the NEA G a y Club" served, through expert networking and exchange
of i n f o r m a t i o n , as a l a u n c h i n g platform for the M o n t Terri project, an
international rock laboratory located in the Opalinus Clay, a Mesozoic shale
formation in Switzerland ( T H U R Y & B O S S A R T 1999).
Justification of further testing

Considering the wide range of objectives that are assigned to existing and
p l a n n e d u n d e r g r o u n d testing facilities, a r e c e n t initiative consists in a
rationalisation and justification of further underground characterisation, testing
and demonstration from an international perspective. The report, w h i c h is
planned for 2000, will aim to help technical decision makers w h e n planning and
evaluating the best uses of existing and/or future underground facilities.
Roles of the geosphere barrier in safety assessment
The objective here is to build confidence in the geosphere as a barrier. Most of

the activities described below have been developed in co-operation with the
PAAG.
Geosphere as a barrier to radionuclide transport
To h e l p m e m b e r countries develop specific tools for the assessment of the

geosphere barrier, the NEA set up, between 1987 and 1993, the INTRAVAL Project
,aimed at conceptualising and developing groundwater flow and radionuclide
transport models (OECD/NEA & SKI 1996). The project consisted of a series of
test cases (in-situ or in laboratory) in various geological e n v i r o n m e n t s and with

different spatial and temporal scales. A m o n g the main issues e n c o u n t e r e d were:
- the characterisation of the geological variability in the field;
- the theoretical and computational analysis of the impact of variability on the
prediction of flow and transport for the space- and time-scales of relevance in
disposal performance assessment; and
- the evaluation of the use of simplification in performance-assessment
m o d e l s (e.g. 1-D streamtubes with averaged and constant transport properties,
linear sorption equilibrium concept, time-independence).
O n the basis of the INTRAVAL o u t c o m e s , the G E O T R A P Project on
Radionuclide Migration in Geological, Heterogeneous M e d i a was set up in 1996.
G E O T R A P is devoted to current approaches to acquiring field data, and testing
a n d modelling flow and transport of radionuclides in actual (and therefore
h e t e r o g e n e o u s ) geological formations for the purpose of site characterisation and
safety assessment of deep repository systems of long-life radioactive waste. The
project is articulated in a series of structured, forum-style w o r k s h o p s w h e r e b y
national waste m a n a g e m e n t agencies, regulatory authorities and scientists are
able to interact and contribute to the a d v a n c e m e n t of the state of the art in these
areas. The topics addressed so far have related to the:
- roles of field tracer experiments in the prediction of radionuclide migration
( O E C D / N E A & EC 1997);
- modelling of the effects of spatial (natural) variability ( O E C D / N E A 1998);
- characterisation and representation of w a t e r - c o n d u c t i n g features
( O E C D / N E A , 1999b); and
- confidence in models of radionuclide transport for site-specific performance
assessment (OECD/NEA in prep).
Overall, the G E O T R A P workshops confirmed ( L A L I E U X et al. 1999) that a
multidisciplinary approach is necessary in order to address m o r e fully the issues
relevant to transport modelling in a h e t e r o g e n e o u s geological m e d i u m , in which
coupled and, possibly, non-linear processes operate. Effective communication
b e t w e e n the different groups involved is therefore essential. Despite the
difference in the host rock, in concepts and terminology, the G E O T R A P
w o r k s h o p series has been successful in developing a constructive dialogue
b e t w e e n experimental scientists and modellers. In addition, both implementers
and regulators have participated actively in the project. T h e project is thus
helping to bridge the gap between data acquired in-situ and their uses for
performance and safety assessment purposes.
T h e workshops have highlighted significant advances in the a c h i e v e m e n t of a
d e p t h of understanding in relation to geosphere heterogeneity and, in particular,
water-conducting features. This understanding is required for performance-
assessment modelling and for the compilation of a repository safety case that can
be defended and which is credible. A depth of understanding implies the use of
wide-ranging information to support the decisions that underlie transport-model
calculations, even if not all this information is incorporated directly in the
models. Specific advances have, for example, been noted in the integration o f
m e t h o d s used to characterise heterogeneity over a wide range of scales, in the
LAUEUX, P.: International co-operation regarding site characterisation 245
incorporation of a wide range of qualitative data to constrain uncertainties in

characterisation, and in building an overall geological understanding of a site.
Furthermore, external peer review, at all stages of a project, has an important role
to play in this matter.
In spite of the efforts to achieve a wide-ranging debate encompassing all
aspects of geosphere transport, discussions at the G E O T R A P workshops have
centred predominantly on the characterisation of hydraulic properties and on
their representation in flow models. It can be concluded that this reflects the
weighting of current w o r k internationally, and the relative maturity of hydraulic-
characterisation techniques and flow models; nevertheless, it m a y not always
adequately reflect the needs of performance assessments.
To further support detailed models of radionuclide retardation on natural
materials (e.g. surface complexation models), the N E A also sponsored a special
project called ASARR -Analogue Studies in the Alligator Rivers Region - from
1987 to 1997. It consisted of a field study on the mobilisation and migration of
uranium in groundwater in the weathered zone surrounding the Koongarra ore
body in the Northern Territories of Australia. The project was of notable help
d e v e l o p m e n t investigation techniques and u n d e r s t a n d i n g of g e o c h e m i c a l
processes (ANSTO 1997).
Matching the results of various site-characterisation methodologies
M a t c h i n g the results of the various geoscientific m e t h o d s used in site

characterisation, and communicating the rationale and implications of this
matching, as well as associated uncertainties and limitations, are important. This
is especially true with respect to confidence-building in the data, concepts and
models which are used for the description, understanding and assessment of
current and future performance of the geological barrier.
In this framework, a workshop was organised in 1997 to help assess the
potential of groundwater chemistry as a m e t h o d for testing site-specific, time-
d e p e n d e n t g r o u n d w a t e r flow models ( O E C D / N E A 1998b). The w o r k s h o p
illustrated significant progress in the integration of flow and chemistry, and
helped to acknowledge the inherent limitations of, and difficulties in this
integration. The progress has, however, not been communicated e n o u g h outside
the hydrogeochemistry community. In current national disposal programmes,
hydrogeochemistry is used m o r e as a tool for site understanding" than for direct
testing of flow m o d e l s . T h e main w o r k s h o p c o n c l u s i o n is that h y d r o
geochemistry could be used both in developing conceptual flow models and in
testing flow models; h o w e v e r a better formalisation is required to help provide a
consistent and transparent picture of the site and to help communicate the
confidence gained.
Interfaces between the geosphere and the engineered barrier system
The main objectives of the initiatives below are to assess the perturbation
induced in the geosphere by the repository and to promote the understanding of
the interactions with the geosphere w h e n defining repository components.
In u n d e r g r o u n d repositories for radioactive waste, significant quantities of
gases m a y be generated as a result of several processes - notably the interaction
of groundwaters and brines with waste and engineered materials placed in
disposal systems. The gases m a y migrate through the engineered barrier system
and the natural geological barrier. The potential impact of gas generation,
accumulation and migration on the long-term safety of a repository will be
d e p e n d e n t u p o n the waste types, the repository concept, the host geological
e n v i r o n m e n t and the scenarios for the long-term evolution of the system. It is
r e c o m m e n d e d that the potential impact of gas accumulation and migration on
the performance of the various barriers should be addressed and assessed in the
development of safety cases for radioactive waste repositories.
Significant efforts have been, and continue to be, expended in n u m e r o u s
national and international programmes in analysing the potential impacts of gas
in u n d e r g r o u n d repositories. In light of these efforts, and in order to help focus
further work, the European Commission and the NEA have jointly undertaken a
review of the knowledge gained so far in order to establish the current status of
the basic understanding of the topics concerned ( R O D W E L L et al. 1999). The
review report covers most underground repository concepts presently being
considered. Amongst the repository concepts that are reviewed in the report, that
for the Yucca Mountain is unique in that disposal is envisaged in unsaturated
rock in an arid region. The consequence for this concept is that two-phase flow
issues are absolutely central to repository performance analysis, and have
therefore c o m m a n d e d m o r e resources and attention than gas migration in
repository concepts developed for saturated locations. For other repository
concepts - i.e. those involving emplacement in saturated rocks - the scenarios
involving substantive gas migration issues vary in line with the repository
concept.
Argillaceous media
The initiatives mentioned below are aimed at building confidence in the

characterisation a n d u n d e r s t a n d i n g of natural argillaceous m e d i a and at
assessing their barrier performances. They are being carried out u n d e r the
auspices of the Clay Club".
Comparison of clay characteristics

A w h o l e range of argillaceous media are currently being considered as
potential host rocks for geological disposal, i.e. from soft, potentially plastic clays
with relatively high water content (e.g. B o o m Clay in Belgium), to hard,
potentially fractured mudrocks with low to v e r y low water content (e.g.
Opalinus Clay in Switzerland, Boda Siltstone Formation in Hungary). Most of the
initiatives set up u n d e r the Clay Club auspices help to assess the commonalities
a n d differences b e t w e e n various argillaceous formations; t h e r e f o r e , t h e y
facilitate the transferability of the information gained - notably in u n d e r g r o u n d
testing facilities - and foster international and multilateral co-operation.
A m o n g these initiative is the elaboration of a catalogue of Features, Events and
Processes specific to argillaceous media (FEPCAT Project). T h e catalogue, which
is p l a n n e d for the end of 2000, will provide, for each post-closure FEP, an up-to-
date, critical overview of conclusions and k e y references related to current
u n d e r s t a n d i n g and potential impact o n the long-term p e r f o r m a n c e of the
g e o s p h e r e barrier, and also information on ongoing and p l a n n e d work. In
addition to systematically exploring the commonalities and differences a m o n g
argillaceous media, it should help provide a sound, realistic a n d defensible
international basis for further long-term safety assessments.
Regulation of water chemistry

The determination of the natural processes that regulate w a t e r chemistry and
the assessment of the hydrochemical changes induced by the repository are
essential aspects of the understanding of transport barrier capacities of the
g e o s p h e r e . Given this, obtaining representative in-situ g e o c h e m i c a l porewater
compositions is one of the key difficulties in tight media with l o w water content.
Therefore, the Clay Club is reviewing (i) the advantages a n d limitations of
existing extraction m e t h o d s , (ii) the c u r r e n t basic u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the
perturbations induced while extracting porewater, and (iii) the approaches to
i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f the results (e.g. g e o c h e m i c a l m o d e l l i n g ) . T h e report
summarising this review process ( S A C C H I et al. 2000 in prep.) also identifies k e y
challenges and ways to tackle them.
Basic processes of water, gas and solute m o v e m e n t

The Clay Club fosters multidisciplinary understanding of the basic processes of
water, gas and solute m o v e m e n t through argillaceous media. T h e main initiative
in this field has b e e n the elaboration of a state-of-the-art report that synthesises
the available information, identifies key concepts and m e c h a n i s m s and their
coupling, makes the appropriate links b e t w e e n basic microscopic p h e n o m e n a
a n d their macroscopic responses, and highlights, w h e r e v e r possible, unresolved
issues ( H O R S E M A N et al. 1996).
In this framework, special emphasis has b e e n put on the role of sedimentary
a n d structural heterogeneities and discontinuities (OECD/NEA 1998c) and on the
conditions and processes for the self-healing of faults and fractures at repository
depths. To help a multidisciplinary coverage of these topics, the Clay Club is also
p r o m o t i n g exchange of ideas from other sectors - in particular, the academic
c o m m u n i t y and the oil and gas industry.
Conclusions
It can be concluded from the above examples that, c o n c e r n i n g the geoscientific

aspects of confidence building in the long-term safety of geological disposal, the
NEA has contributed to:
- the fostering of c o m m o n understanding with respect to important site
characterisation and evaluation issues, and the sharing of resources therein;
- the provision, comparison and testing of the technical a n d scientific bases for
site characterisation, understanding and evaluation in order to build a coherent
picture of the site/processes that is adequate for safety assessment;
- helping devise an appropriate consideration of the g e o s p h e r e barrier in the
overall safety case; and
- the comparison of the state of the art in the waste disposal c o m m u n i t y with
that in other geoscientific disciplines.
Overall, the above examples also demonstrate that the N E A promotes a
constant evaluation and understanding of the commonalities a n d differences
b e t w e e n national disposal programmes, facilitates dialogue across professional
sectors, a n d helps build confidence in the soundness a n d completeness of
individual national programmes.
As a concluding remark, it is fundamental to acknowledge the very high
quality of the technical w o r k carried out at national a n d multilateral levels which
constitute the basis for all NEA initiatives.
References
ANSTO, 1997: Analogue studies in the Alligator Rivers Region. - Six Monthly Report, 1st July to 31st
December 1996.
HORSEMAN, S., H I C G O , J. ALEXANDER, J. & HARRINGTON, J. 1996: Water, gas and solute movement
through argillaceous media, OECD/NEA.
LALIEUX, P, PESCATORE, C. & SMITH, P 1999: Preliminary lessons from GEOTRAP, the OECD/NEA
International Project on Radionuclide Transport in Actual, Geological Media, Transactions of the
ENS Topseal '99 Conference - Radioactive Waste Management: Commitment to the Future
Environment, Antwerp, Belgium, 10-14 October 1999, ENS.
OECD/NEA 1991: Can long-term safety be evaluated? - An international collective opinion
OECD/NEA 1995: The environmental and ethical basis of geological disposal. - A collective opinion
of the NEA Radioactive Waste Management Committee.
OECD/NEA 1998a: Modelling the effects of spatial variability on radionuclide migration. -
Proceedings of a GEOTRAP Workshop, Paris, France, 9-11 June 1997
OECD/NEA 1998b: Use of hydrogeochemical information in testing groundwater flow models. -
Proceedings of a SEDE Workshop, Borgholm, Sweden, 1-3 September 1997.
OECD/NEA 1998c: Fluid flow through faults and fractures in argillaceous formations. - Proceedings
of a Joint NEA/EC Workshop, Bern, Switzerland, 10-12 June 1996.
OECD/NEA 1999a: Geological disposal of radioactive waste: Review of developments in the last
decade.
OECD/NEA 1999b: Water-conducting features in models of radionuclide migration. - Proceedings of
a GEOTRAP Workshop, Barcelona, Spain, 10-12 June 1998.
OECD/NEA (in preparation): Confidence in models of radionuclide transport for site-specific
performance assessment. - Proceedings of a GEOTRAP Workshop, Carlsbad, NM, United States,
14-18 June 1999.
OECD/NEA & EC 1 9 9 7 : Field tracer experiments: Role in the prediction of radionuclide migration. -
Proceedings of a GEOTRAP Workshop, Cologne, Germany, 2 8 - 3 0 August 1 9 9 6 .
OECD/NEA & SKB 1 9 9 3 : International Stripa Project 1 9 8 0 - 1 9 9 2 , 3 Volumes, Overview Volume I -
Executive S u m m a r y (FAIRHURST, C , GERA, F., GNIRK, F , GRAY, M. & STILLBORG, .) Overview
Volume II - Natural Barriers (GNIRK, P.), Overview Volume III - Engineered Barriers (GRAY, M . S )
OECD/NEA & SKI 1 9 9 6 : The International INTRAVAL Project - Developing groundwater flow and
transport models for radioactive waste disposal - Final results.
RODWELL, W , H A R R I S , A . , HORSEMAN, S., LALIEUX, E, MLLER, W., O R T I Z AMAYA, L. & PRUESS, K. 1 9 9 9 : Gas
migration and two-phase flow through engineered and geological barriers for a deep repository
for radioactive waste. - A joint EC/NEA Status Report published by the European Commission,
European Commission Report EUR 1 9 1 2 2 EN.
SACCHI, E. J . , MICHELOT, L. & PITSCH, H . 1 9 9 9 : Extraction of water and solutes from argillaceous rocks
for geochemical characterisation: methods and critical evaluation, OECD/NEA, (in press)
THURY, M & BOSSART, E 1 9 9 9 : "The Mont Terri Rock Laboratory, a new international research project in
a Mesozoic shale formation, in Switzerland". - Engineering Geology, 5 2 , 3 4 7 - 3 5 9 .
Possibilities for developing deep radioactive

waste repository in Lithuania
Mlysgi radioaktv hulladktrol teleptsnek lehetsgei

Litvniban
R o m a K A N O P I E N E - Vytautas M A R C I N K E V I C I U S
(3 Figures)
Key words: radioactive waste, safe management, repository, geological criteria,

geological structure, selection of geological formation
Trgyszavak: radioaktv hulladk, biztonsgos kezels, hulladktrol, fldtani felttelek,

fldtani szerkezet, fldtani formcik kivlasztsa
Abstract
The majority of radioactive waste in Lithuania is accumulating at the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant
(INPP); the latter is located in the northeastern part of Lithuania, near lake Drukshiai. The project of
INPP construction was started in 1972; exploitation of the first reactor began in 1983, and in the
second began in 1987. There are two RMBK-1500 reactors with a total electric power capacity of 2600
MW and a thermal power output of 8400 MW in INPP
The radioactive wastes of INPP are separated into 3 categories according to the respective levels of
4 6
their radioactivity. The waste of the first (I) category has a low radioactivity level- 7.4 x 1 0 - 3.7 x 1 0
6 9
Bq/kg. The waste of the second (II) category is the intermediate activity level 3.7 x 1 0 - 3.7 x 1 0
9
Bq/kg waste. The waste of high radioactivity level is more than 3.7 x 1 0 Bq/kg - such as control rods
3
(pivots) and spent nuclear fuel elements - are ascribed to the third (III) category. 1400 m of the
3 3
category I , about 330 m of category II and about 180 m of category III waste have been forming in
3
INPP every year. There is about 30 000 m of radioactive waste accumulated in INPP. This volume
3
could reach about 50 000-100 000 m before the end of NPP exploitation.
Safe management and repositories for radioactive waste represent a new problem for Lithuania,
because in the Soviet Union these problems were solved by central institutions in Moscow.
Since 1996 the Law on Nuclear Energy" of the Republic of Lithuania has been the general order
for radioactive waste disposal. The preparation of the Law on radioactive waste management is going
on now. Lithuania signed The Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and on the
Safety of Radioactive Waste Management" in 1997.
According to the recent waste management plan, the I and the II categories of radioactive waste
from INPP can be disposed in landfill repository, but for the III category waste a deep geological
repository must be constructed.
The geological structure of Lithuania could be suitable for a deep repository for radioactive waste.
The territory of Lithuania is in the northeastern part of the East European platform. A crystalline
basement occurs at depth of between 200-2300 metres below the land surface. The sedimentary cover
consists of the deposits of all geological systems (Fig. 2). Vendian and Cambrian deposits are
terrigenous (e.g. claystone, clay, gravelstone, sandstone, siltstone); Ordovician and Silurian deposits
are of a carbonate type and clayey (e.g. limestone, marl, dolomitic marl, dolomite, claystone, clay);
Devonian deposits are also of a carbonate type, sandy and clayey (e. g. sandstone, sand, clay,
dolomitic marl, dolomite, etc.); Carboniferous deposits are sandy and clayey; Permian deposits are
represented, in general, by limestone, anhydrite and rock-salt; Triassic deposits are clayey; Jurassic -
clay, siltstone, sandstone; Palaeogene and Neogene - sand, silt, clay; and Quaternary deposits are till,
sand and gravel.
Geological Survey of Lithuania, S. Konarskio 35, LT-2600 Vilnius, Lithuania

According to the results of geological investigations, some geological formations can be

preliminarily selected for a deep repository for radioactive waste: 1) rocks of Crystalline basement, 2)
Lower Cambrian clay; 3) Permian sulphate deposits; 4) Permian rock-salt; 5) Lower Triassic clay. The
sites for a deep radioactive waste repository may be selected in these formations, according to suitable
tectonic, hydrogeological, engineering geological conditions, international considerations and legal
documents of the Republic of Lithuania.
sszefoglals
Litvnia radioaktv hulladknak legnagyobb rsze Litvnia K-i rszn, a Drukshiai-t mellett
fekv Ignalina Atomermben (INPP) kpzdik. Az INPP ptse 1972-ben kezddtt, az els
reaktort 1983-ban, a msodikat 1987-ben adtk t. A kt RMBK-1500-as reaktor teljes villamosenergia
kapacitsa 2600 MW, a henergia termels 8400 MW.
Az INPP radioaktv hulladka a radioaktivits mrtke szerint hrom osztlyba sorolhat. Az els
4 6
(I) kategriba a kis radioaktivits hulladkok kerlnek ( 7 , 4 x l 0 - 3 , 7 x l 0 Bq/kg). A kvetkez (II)
6 9 9
kategrba a kzepes aktivits ( 3 , 7 x l 0 - 3 , 7 x l 0 Bq/kg), mg a harmadik (III) kategriba ( > 3 , 7 x l 0
Bq/kg) a nagy aktivits hulladkok, pldul a szablyzrudak s a kigett ftelemek tartoznak.
3 3 3
vente 1400 m I, kb. 330 m II s kb. 180 m III kategrij hulladk keletkezik az INPP-ben, ami a
3
mai napig sszesen kb. 30 000 m radioaktv hulladk felhalmozdst jelent. Az atomerm
3
bezrsig a teljes mennyisg elrheti az 50 000-100 000 m -t.
A radioaktv hulladk biztonsgos kezelse s trolsa jkelet problma Litvniban, mivel a
Szovjetuni idejben az ilyesfajta problmkat a moszkvai kzponti intzetekben oldottk meg.
1996-ben a Litvn Kztrsasg atomenergia trvnyben fektette le a radioaktv hulladklerakssal
kapcsolatos ltalnos szablyokat. Jelenleg a radioaktv hulladkkezelssel kapcsolatos trvny
elksztse folyik. Litvnia 1997-ben alrta A kigett ftelemek kezelsnek biztonsgrl s a
radioaktv hulladkok kezelsnek biztonsgrl szl kzs egyezmny"-t.
A jelenlegi hulladkkezelsi tervek szerint az INPP-bl kikerl I s II kategriba tartoz
radioaktv hulladkok elhelyezse trtnhet felszni krlmnyek kztt, a III kategriba tartozkat
viszont mlysgi trolban kell elhelyezni.
Litvnia fldtani szerkezete lehetv teszi mlysgi trol ltestst. Litvnia a kelet-eurpai
platform K-i rszn fekszik, ahol a kristlyos aljzat 200-2300 m mlysgben kezddik. Az ledkes
takar a legklnflbb fldtani kpzdmnyekbl tevdik ssze (1. bra). A vendi s a kambriumi
ledkek szrazfldi keletkezsek (agyagk, agyag, konglomertum, homokk, aleurolit), az
ordovciumi s a szilur ledkek karbontosak s agyagosak (mszk, mrga, dolomitos mrga,
dolomit, agyagk, agyag), a devon ledkek karbontosak, homokosak s agyagosak (homokk,
homok, agyag, dolomitos mrga, dolomit, stb.), a karbon ledkek homokosak s agyagosak, a permi
ledkeket ltalban mszk, anhidrit s ks reprezentlja, a triszban agyagos ledkek, a jurban
agyag, aleurolit s homokk, a paleognben s a neognben homok, aleurit s agyag, mg a
kvarterban till, homok s kavics rakdott le.
A fldtani kutatsok eredmnyei szerint a kvetkez fldtani formcik alkalmasak mlysgi
radioaktv hulladktrol ltestsre: 1) kristlyos aljzat; 2) als-kambriumi agyag; 3) permi szulftos
ledkek; 4) permi ks; 5) als-trisz agyag. A mlysgi trol brmelyik formciban trtn
elhelyezse fgg a megfelel tektonikai, hidrogeolgiai s mrnkgeolgiai adottsgoktl, a
nemzetkzi elvrsoktl, valamint Litvnia trvnyeitl.
Introduction. State of the problem
T h e Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (INPP) is located in the n o r t h e a s t e r n part of

Lithuania, n e a r lake Druksiai (Fig. 1). T h e construction of I N P P w a s started in
1972; exploitation o f t h e first reactor began in 1983 a n d the s e c o n d b e g a n in the
1987. I N P P has t w o R M B K - 1 5 0 0 reactors with a total electric p o w e r capacity of
2600 M W a n d a t h e r m a l p o w e r output of 8400 MW.
KANOPIENE, R . & MRCINKEVICIUS, V. Possibilities of radioactive waste repository in Lithuania 253
Fig. 1 West-East geological cross-section (line A - B ) of Lithuanian bedrock (KADNAS 1 9 9 2 )
2. bra Ny-K irny fldtani metszet Litvnin keresztl
The radioactive waste of INPP can be separated into 3 categories according to

the respective levels of their radioactivity. T h e waste of the first (I) category has a
4 6
low radioactivity level - 7.4 x 1 0 - 3.7 x 1 0 Bq/kg. T h e waste of the s e c o n d (II)
6 9
category is of intermediate activity level - 3.7 X 1 0 - 3.7 X 1 0 Bq/kg. T h e waste
9
of high radioactivity level - more than 3.7 x 1 0 Bq/kg, such as - control rods
(pivots) and spent nuclear fuel elements - ascribed to the third (III) category.
3 3
With respect to solid wastes, 1400 m of category I, about 330 m of category II
3
and about 180 m of category III (except spent fuel) have b e e n forming in I N P P
3
every year (Table ). A total of about 38 000 m of all types and categories (solid
a n d liquid) radioactive waste have so far accumulated in I N P P This v o l u m e could
3
reach about 50 0 0 0 - 1 0 0 000 m before the e n d of the exploitation of I N P P T h e
v o l u m e of solid wastes of high radioactivity (except spent fuel) could reach about
3
4000 m before this time.
Classification of solid radioactive wastes
A szilrd radiaktiv hulladkok osztlyozsa

Table I - 1 . tbla
Category Radioactivity Volume, accumulating
per year
4 6
I low level 7.4 x 10 - 3.7 x 1 0 Bq/kg 1400 m 3
6 9 3
II intermediate level 3.7 x 1 0 - 3.7 x 10 Bq/kg 330 m
9 3
III high level > 3.7 x 1 0 Bq/kg 180 m
Safe m a n a g e m e n t a n d repositories for radioactive waste represent a n e w and

i m p o r t a n t problem for Lithuania. T h e Ministry of E n e r g y of Lithuania, in co
operation with a Swedish Nuclear fuel and Waste M a n a g e m e n t Company,
prepared the Suggested Overall Plan for M a n a g e m e n t of Radioactive Waste in

Lithuania" in 1995. There was only a general view the possibility of a deep
repository for high radioactivity level waste in this plan. A d e e p geological
repository for spent fuel was described in the Strategy of radioactive waste
m a n a g e m e n t " in 1997. Therefore it is v e r y important n o w : 1) preliminarily to
investigate the geological structure of Lithuania with regard to its suitability for
a deep waste repository, 2) to foresee the possibilities of this repository, 3) to
select the most suitable sites, satisfying the international requirements, 4) to
create scientific and practical p r o g r a m m e s 5) and to educate the local specialists
so that they can implement them.
Since 1996 the Law on Nuclear Energy" of the Republic of Lithuania has b e e n
in operation and it describes the general regulations for radioactive waste
disposal. Lithuania has signed The Joint Convention on the Safety of S p e n t Fuel
M a n a g e m e n t a n d on the Safety of Radioactive Waste M a n a g e m e n t " . After long
discussions The Law on Radioactive Waste M a n a g e m e n t of the Republic of
Lithuania" w a s adopted this spring.
According to the recent waste m a n a g e m e n t plan, the I a n d the II categories of
radioactive waste from INPP can be disposed in a landfill repository, but for the
III c a t e g o r y waste a d e e p geological repository m u s t b e constructed. As
m e n t i o n e d above, the III category waste includes spent c o m p o u n d s of the reactor
a n d elements of spent fuel. T h e problem of developing a d e e p geological
repository for radioactive waste will be also important if the Ignalina N P P is
closed.
Geological investigations for a deep radioactive waste (RW)

repository site
Site selection for a deep R W repository is a complex long-term process and it

consists of several stages - general understanding at the b e g i n n i n g and detailed
investigations at the e n d ( L O M T A D Z E 1978). T h e following stages of geological
investigations will be necessary:
1) prospective (review) investigations;
2) preliminary investigations;
3) detailed investigations;
4) u n d e r g r o u n d investigations for repository construction.
1, T h e aim of the prospective investigations is to collect a n d assess archive and

published data about geological, tectonic, seismic, hydrogeological, engineering
geological, environmental geological conditions of the territory of Lithuania. T h e
requirements of International Atomic E n e r g y Agency to with regard the selection
of the geological formation for the construction of a deep R W repository n e e d to
be observed. Furthermore, the requirements of State laws on territorial planning
a n d land-use and social-economical factors also must be considered at this stage
of the investigations.
Later, three more stages must be carried out.
K/tNOPlENE, R . & MARCINKEVICJUS, V. possibilities of radioactive waste repository in Lithuania 255
2, T h e aim of preliminary investigations is to select the site for a d e e p R W

repository in the most suitable geological formation. In this case several sites
must b e selected. T h e preliminary investigations m u s t b e carried out in each of
them.
3, T h e aim of detailed investigations is to describe the engineering geological
(geology, tectonics, hydrogeology etc.) conditions a n d to provide the n e c e s s a r y
data for construction in the selected site.
4, T h e aim o f u n d e r g r o u n d investigations w i t h r e s p e c t to r e p o s i t o r y
construction is to d e t e r m i n e the impact of groundwater and other factors w h i c h
would affect the repository in the natural geological environment. T h e s e are
investigations h a v i n g l o n g - t e r m implications. T h e m e t h o d o l o g y for t h e s e
investigations will be property established only w h e n the first three stages o f the
investigations are performed.
Project at L G T
The project for the first stage (prospective (review) investigations) of this long-
term w o r k w a s a p p r o v e d and started at the L G T this year (1999). T h e title of this
project is Evaluation of the territory of Lithuania according to the suitability for
the d e e p repository for radioactive waste".
According to international recommendations (IAEA 1981, 1989; S A V A G E 1995), a
safe d e e p repository for radioactive waste disposal can b e constructed only in a
deep-lying (depth > 2 0 0 m) geological formation. T h e long-term safety of high
level radioactive waste disposal has to be based on the multibarrier c o n c e p t to
avoid the m o v e m e n t o f radionuclides from the repository to the e n v i r o n m e n t .
These barriers h a v e to be: engineered barriers, the host rock and the geological
environment. It is, nevertheless, recognised that the geological barrier plays the
major role in assuring long-term safety. Therefore the site selection for a deep
geological radioactive waste disposal repository is a primary and complex task.
T h e requirement for selecting radioactive waste disposal repository is to assure
long-term (not less t h a n 10 000 years) h u m a n a n d e n v i r o n m e n t a l safety
(protection) from radioactive pollution (SAVAGE 1995).
Given international r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s and the data of similar investigations
from foreign countries specialists of Geological S u r v e y of Lithuania decided to
select a geological formation for a deep R W repository using 3 groups of criteria:
1, geological,
2, radiation (radiological) safety,
3, territorial.
The criteria for the first and the second group have already b e e n d e t e r m i n e d
quite clearly.
1, T h e major geological criteria are: structure of the formation, density of
tectonic faults, hydrogeological situation, geochemistry of the rocks a n d others
(see Table II)
2, Major radiation safety criteria are:

m a x i m u m individual dose < 0.1 mSv/y,
6
individual risk < 10" /y.
3, Territorial criteria, m e n t i o n e d in the international r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s and

reports from several countries are:
30 k m distance from the State boundary,
10 k m radius from urban territory (planned for operational period).
However, there are no special territorial requirements related to R W repository
construction in the State laws of the Republic of Lithuania. This is continuous c o
operation with governmental organisations is foreseen for the determination of
all territorial criteria during the L G T project.
Geological criteria for deep repository of radioactive waste

(according to IAEA recommendations (IAEA, 1981,1989))
A radioaktv hulladk mlysgi trolsnak fldtani felttele

Table II. - . tbla
Index Requirements (safety criteria)
Tectonic stability Should not be in an earthquake zone

Rock stability Rocks must remain in their natural conditions; can not be changed
for millions of years
Occurrence of the formation Large territory
Depth from the land surface >200 m
Thickness Not less than 25 m
Inclination slope Not more than several degrees
Homogeneity Should not be soluble intercalation or linzes with solutions
Geochemistry Should not be hazardous chemical compounds
Hydrogeological conditions Should not be water filtration
Geotechnical properties Must assure long-term life of constructed underground caves.
Occurrence of mineral Repository should not be constructed in the deposit of mineral
resource deposits resources.
Assessing the suitability of the geological formations for high level radioactive
waste repository construction the following data about the territory must be
evaluated:
- Geographical conditions;
- Tectonic, neotectonic conditions and seismic situation;
- H y d r o g e o l o g i c a l c o n d i t i o n s (stratification o f h y d r o g e o l o g i c a l section,
h y d r o d y n a m i c and hydrochemical properties of low permeability layers and
aquifers, w a t e r exchange b e t w e e n the aquifers, h y d r o d y n a m i c relationships
b e t w e e n shallow and g r o u n d w a t e r etc.);
- C o m p o s i t i o n of geological formation, its physical, chemical a n d mechanical
properties (conductivity, porosity, solubility, absorption properties, radioactivity,
t h e r m a l conductivity a n d capacity, temperature gradient etc.);
- O c c u r r e n c e of geological processes;
- E n v i r o n m e n t a l geological situation.
KANOPIENE, R. & MARCINKEVICIUS, V. Possibilities of radioactive waste repository in Lithuania 257
All the data about the geological structure of Lithuania are h a v e b e e n collected
by the at LGT. This information can be divided in to four m a i n groups:
1) borehole data,
2) geological, geophysical m a p p i n g data,
3) raw material prospecting and exploration data,
4) results of special geological investigations.
T h e r e are data about more than 2600 deep boreholes (depth m o r e than 200 m )
in the computerised State geological information system. Geological m a p p i n g on
a scale o f 1: 200 000 covers all the territory of Lithuania. This scale was selected as
a working scale for the graphical information in the project. S o m e geological
formations (systems) w e r e investigated in detail during the prospecting and
exploration project for oil, rock salt, anhydrite and other mineral resources. The
reports o f different geological investigations will be used (as well as the archive
data) for the selection of the geological formation for the H L R W repository.
Finally, to compare the suitability of different geological formations and to
s h o w graphically the results of the project GIS technologies and Maplnfo
software will be used.
Short description of the geological structure of Lithuania
The geological structure of Lithuania is suitable for a d e e p repository for

radioactive waste. T h e territory of Lithuania is in the north-eastern part of the
East E u r o p e a n platform. A crystalline b a s e m e n t occurs at a d e p t h of 2 0 0 - 2 3 0 0
metres below the land surface. T h e sedimentary cover consists of the deposits of
all geological systems (Fig. 1). Vendian and Cambrian deposits are terrigenous
(claystone, clay, gravelstone, sandstone, siltstone); Ordovician a n d Silurian
deposits are carbonate and clayey (limestone, marl, dolomitic marl, dolomite,
claystone, clay); D e v o n i a n deposits are carbonate, sandy and clayey (sandstone,
sand, clay, dolomitic marl, dolomite, etc.); Carboniferous deposits are sandy and
clayey; Permian deposits are represented, in general, b y limestone, anhydrite and
rock-salt; Triassic deposits are clayey; Jurassic deposits clay, siltstone, sandstone;
Palaeogene and N e o g e n e deposits: sand, silt, clay; and Q u a t e r n a r y deposits are
till, sand and gravel.
According to the results of the geological investigations s o m e geological
formations can be selected on a preliminary basis for the d e e p repository for
radioactive waste ( S A V A G E 1995): 1) rocks with a Crystalline basement, 2) Lower
Cambrian clay; 3) Permian sulphate deposits; 4) Permian rock-salt; 5) L o w e r
Triassic clay.
Rocks with a crystalline basement
In Lithuania a crystalline b a s e m e n t occurs at a depth of 2 0 0 - 2 3 0 0 metres below

the land surface (Fig. 1). This is represented by Proterozoic rocks: meta
m o r p h o s e d granulite facies in Western Lithuania (gneisses, schists, enderbites,
mNN 4 2 6
\ 1385m ^
O i [V]4 Q 5 H
Fig-. 2 Geological section of Pagirai anhydrite deposit. 1 aquitard, 2 medium permeability, 3 aquifer,
4 gypsum, 5 banded anhydrite, 6 spotted anhydrite
2. bra Pagirai anhidrit lelhely fldtani szelvnye. 1. vzzr, 2. kzepesen tereszt, 3. vztereszt, 4. gipsz,
5. szalagos anhidrit, 6. foltos anhidrit
charnokites) and amphibolite facies in the Eastern part of Lithuanian territory

(amphibolites, gneisses, granites). There are intrusions of basic rocks (gabbro,
diabases) in crystalline basement rocks. T h e geotechnical properties of this massif
h a v e been investigated in south-eastern part of Lithuania ( M A R F I N et al. 1 9 8 2 ) .
Lower Cambrian clay
The oldest part of the Lower Cambrian - i.e. Baltija group - consists of a
c o m p a c t clay formation. This formation occurs in Eastern Lithuania at a depth of
3 0 0 - 5 0 0 and m o r e metres. T h e clay is very compact and consists of hydromica
(from 6 0 - 6 5 to 8 5 - 9 0 % , kaolinite (from 3 - 5 % to 2 5 - 3 0 % and chlorite (from 3 - 5 %
to 1 0 - 1 5 % ) minerals ( P A S K E V I C I U S 1 9 9 9 ) . There is some intercalation of sandstone
in the L o w e r Cambrian clay.
KANOPIENE, R. & MARCINKEVICIUS, V. -.Possibilities of radioactive waste repository in Lithuania 259
Permian sulphate deposits
The entire layer of these deposits is 4 0 - 6 0 m thick and occurs in the Southern
2
and South-western parts of Lithuania covering an area of more than 1 2 0 0 0 k m .
This layer lies at a depth of 1 5 0 - 7 9 0 m. Most of these deposits ( 7 0 - 8 0 % ) consist of
anhydrite. Permian gypsum which 5 - 8 m thick occurs above the anhydrite layer
and g y p s u m which is 3 - 5 m thick lies below the anhydrite. In the Kaunas district
i.e. the Pagiriai deposit (Fig. 2 ) the exploration of anhydrite has b e e n carried out.
Resources of 8 1 . 5 million, tonnes of anhydrite have b e e n evaluated there. The
project for the exploitation of anhydrite by underground mining has been
prepared. According to this project, the free underground cavities after the
exploitation of anhydrite can be used for a repository for radioactive waste
(KADUNAS 1993).
Permian rock-salt
The u p p e r Permian rock-salt basin comprises almost the w h o l e Kaliningrad

region (Russian Federation). O n l y the Northern edge of this basin can be
d e t e c t e d in the S o u t h w e s t e r n part of Lithuania. This territory has b e e n
investigated using seismic methods. According to the seismic data, salt is
expected to occur in the form of single domes. The supposed salt bed was
determined using the diagrams of an electric log in the oil prospecting boreholes.
The prospecting and evaluation of Usenai rock-salt deposits have b e e n carried
out in Silute district ( S A U L E N A S 1 9 9 7 ) . There were 2 deep boreholes drilled with a
core in the Usenai deposit (Fig. 3). According to the drilling and seismic data, the
area of the salt d o m e is 2 . 5 x 3 . 0 km. The evaluated thickness of the rock salt in
the central part of the deposit is 5 6 . 5 - 6 9 . 0 m, and the supposed thickness about
7 5 m.
Lower Triassic clay
The L o w e r Triassic deposits occur in the Western and South-western parts of

Lithuania at a depth of 2 5 0 - 3 5 0 m and are more than 2 0 0 m thick. In general the
sequence consists of dense clay. T h e most important c o m p o u n d s of the clay are
hydromica and montmorilonite minerals. There are m a n y siltstone and some
sandstone intercalations in the sequence of the Lower Triassic deposits ( S U V E I Z D I S
1994).
Expected results
The results of our project

- will s h o w the possibilities for deep geological RW repository in Lithuania.
- will provide the substantiation (related with R W m a n a g e m e n t ) for the
decisions of the State G o v e r n m e n t , specialists of economics and environmental
security,
Fig. 3 Geological cross-section of Usenai deposit (SAULENAS 1997)
3 . bra Az Usenai lelhely fldtani szelvnye (SAULENAS 1997)

KANOPIENE, R. & MARCINKEVICIUS, V. -.Possibilities oj radioactive waste repository in Lithuania 261
- will provide the information for further stages of geological investigations for
d e e p R W r e p o s i t o r y site selection.
Conclusions
We h a v e a p r o b l e m in Lithuania - T h e Ignalina N u c l e a r P o w e r P l a n t a n d
3
414 m of solid h i g h activity Radioactive Wastes.
We c o u l d solve this p r o b l e m b y using a geological formation in L i t h u a n i a
w h i c h is suitable for a d e e p R W repository.
We h a v e to give the clear a n s w e r to this question.
This is w h y w e h a v e to carry out the project w h i c h r e p r e s e n t s the first stage of
geological investigations - to evaluate the territory of L i t h u a n i a a c c o r d i n g to its
suitability for a d e e p R W repository.
References
International Atomic Energy Agency 1981: Underground disposal of radioactive wastes. Basic
guidance, - Safety Series 54, IAEA, Vienna, 56 p.
International Atomic Energy Agency 1989: Safety principles and technical criteria for the
underground disposal of high level radioactive wastes. IAEA safety standards - Safety Series 99,
IAEA, Vienna, 28 p.
KADNAS, V. 1993: Ecogeological appreciation of the Upper Permian anhydrite seam from the point of
arrangement of depositories. - Geologija 15, Vilnius, 27-31.
LOMTADZE, V. 1978: (Ingenernaia geolgia. Specialnaia ingenernaia geolgia) Engineering geology.
Special engineering geology., Leningrad., Nedra, 496 p.
MARFIN, S., MIKSYTS, R . . , MOTUZA, G., & SKRIPKINA, T 1982: The structure of the Marcinkonys granitic
massif and properties of rocks. - Geologija 3 , Vilnius 3-16.
PASKEVICIUS J. 1999: Stratigraphy of Vendian, lower and middle Paleozoic and its problems. (Lietuvos
mokslas. Geomokslai. Monografija) Science of Lithuania. Geosciences. Monograph. Vilnius;
96-129.
SAULENAS, V , GASIUNIENE, V. E., & KRALIKAUSKAITE R . 1997: Whether we will extract Lithuanian rock-
salt? - Information publication. Geological Survey of Lithuania. Vilnius.
SAVAGE, D. (Ed.) 1995: The scientific and regulatory basis for the geological disposal of radioactive
waste. Wiley, Chichester, 438 p.
SUVEIZDIS E 1994: Triassic; (Triasas. Lietuvos geologija. Monografija) Lithuania's geology. Monograph,
Vilnius, 132-138.
Simulating large scale groundwater flow for

waste disposal purposes
Nagylptk talajvzramls modellezse

hulladkelhelyezsi clbl
D u k e U. O P H O R I
(4 Figures)
Key words: Modelling, groundwater flow, particle tracking, waste disposal, Canada
Trgyszavak: Modellezs, talajvz ramls, rszecske kvets, hulladk leraks, Kanada
Abstract
Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) has developed a concept for the disposal of Canada's
nuclear fuel waste in a vault, deep (500 m to 1000 m) in low-permeability plutonic rocks of the
Canadian Shield. In the concept, the low-permeability rock mass is expected to provide a natural
barrier to the release and migration of wastes from the vault. An understanding of groundwater flow
can be used to enhance the role of the rock mass as a barrier in the overall disposal system. Therefore,
AECL has developed large-scale groundwater flow models of some candidate sites that are used to
identify potential vault locations within the sites which have the longest groundwater flow times
from prospective disposal vault depths to ground surface.
One candidate site that has been studied by AECL is the Whiteshell Research Area (WRA) in
southeastern Manitoba. At this site, a regional groundwater flow model has been developed for a 1050
2
k m area in order to evaluate alternative locations for a hypothetical nuclear fuel waste disposal vault
that maximizes retention of vault contaminants in the rock. A conceptual model of the hydrogeologic
conditions was constructed using information obtained from field investigations at the WRA between
1977 and 1994. Simulations of flow were performed using AECL's three-dimensional finite-element
code, MOTIF.
First, average values of hydraulic parameters obtained from an analysis of the field data were used
in the simulations. Simulated average groundwater recharge did not compare favorably with the
recharge rate that was estimated from field data independently. Model calibration was performed by
modifying the hydraulic parameters and total dissolved solids distribution of the fluids in a series of
consecutive simulations. The simulated recharge rate for the final calibrated model was 4.8 mm/yr.
which compared well with the field-based rate of 5 mm/yr. The simulated freshwater heads for this
simulation also compared reasonably well with measured heads in the network of boreholes at the
WRA. Most of the groundwater flow occurred in local systems between the ground surface and the
depth of 2000 m relative to less flow in the intermediate and region systems at greater depth.
A particle tracking code, TRACK3D was used to determine the travel times, pathways and exit
locations of particles released from different depth horizons in the groundwater velocity field of the
calibrated model. These were used to select a location for a hypothetical nuclear fuel waste disposal
vault that maximizes the retention of vault contaminants in long, slow groundwater flow pathways.
Montclair State University, Upper Montclair, NJ 07043 USA, Phone: 973-655-7558; Fax: 973-655-4072
sszefoglals
A Canada Ltd Atomenergia gynksge (Atomic Energy of Canada Limited - AECL) terve szerint
Kanada kigett nukleris ftelemeit a Kanadai Pajzs mlyen fekv boltozatnak (500-1000 m
kztti), kis teresztkpessg mlysgi kzeteibe vgott regben kellene elhelyezni. A tervben a kis
teresztkpessg kzettmegtl azt vrjk, hogy termszetes mdon akadlyozza az regbl
kiszk s elvndorl szennyezanyagokat. A talajvzramlsi rendszer jobb megrtse segtheti
tisztzni a kzettmegnek a lerakrendszerben elfoglalt gt szerept. Ezrt az AECL elksztette
nhny szmbajv terlet talajvzmodelljt, amelyek alapjn azonosthatak azok a lehetsges
telephelyek a kivlasztott terleten bell, amikhez a leghosszabb talajvzramlsi idk tartoznak a
vrhat lerakhelytl a felsznig.
Az egyik AECL ltal tanulmnyozott lehetsges telephely a Whiteshell Kutatterlet (WRA),
2
Manitoba DK-i rszn. Ezen a telephelyen modelleztk a regionlis talajvzramlst egy 1050 km -es
terletre, hogy tbb szbajhet helysznt rtkeljenek egy leend elhasznlt nukleris ftelem
lerakhely szmra, ami maximlisan visszatartja az regben elhelyezett szennyez anyagot. A
hidrogeolgiai krlmnyek/felttelek koncepcis modelljt ksztettk el, azoknak az adatoknak a
felhasznlsval, amiket a WRA 1977-1994 kztti terepi megfigyelseibl nyertek. Az ramls
modellezsre az AECL hromdimenzis vges-vltozs programjt, a MOTIF-ot alkalmaztk.
Elszr a terepi adatok rtkelsbl nyert hidraulikus paramterek tlagos rtkeit hasznltk a
modellhez. A modellezett tlagos talajvz utnptlds nem hasonltott elgg a terepi adatokbl
kzvetlenl becslt rtkekhez. A modell helyesbtse gy trtnt, hogy egy sorozat modellben
fokozatosan mdostottk a folyadkok hidraulikus paramtereit s a teljesen feloldott
szilrdanyagok eloszlst. Az utols modellben az utnptlds mennyisge 4,8 mm/v volt, ami jl
egyezett a terepi becsls 5,0 mm/vvel. A modellezett desvz nyomsok ebben az utols modellben
szintn megfelel mrtkben hasonltottak a WRA-n teleptett kthlzatban mrtekhez. A
vzramlsok tbbsge a helyi rendszerekben a felszn s 2000 m kztt tallhat a nagyobb
mlysgben megjelen tmeneti s regionlis rendszerek kis ramlsval szemben.
Egy rszecske-kvet rendszert, a TRACK3D-t alkalmaztk a kalibrlt modell talajvz ramlsi
felsznnek klnbz mlysgszintjrl indul rszecskk ramlsi idejnek, ramlsi tvonalnak
s kijutsi helynek meghatrozsra. Ezeket az rtkeket hasznltk az elmleti nukleris ftelem
lerakhely boltozat megfelel helynek kivlasztshoz, ami maximlja a boltozatban lv szennye
zanyagok ksleltetst hossz, lass talajvz ramlsi tvonalakon.
Introduction
As part of the research on a c o n c e p t for the disposal of C a n a d a ' s n u c l e a r fuel

waste in plutonic rocks of the Canadian Shield, AECL has developed
m a t h e m a t i c a l m o d e l s to assess the l o n g - t e r m p e r f o r m a n c e of a disposal system.
The m e t h o d o l o g y h a s b e e n d e m o n s t r a t e d in a postclosure a s s e s s m e n t case study
by applying it to a h y p o t h e t i c a l disposal system including a reference vault, a
realistic y e t hypothetical g e o s p h e r e , a n d a b i o s p h e r e . For the case study, the
characteristics of the g e o s p h e r e w e r e derived from the site-specific information
at A E C L ' s W h i t e s h e l l R e s e a r c h Area ( W R A ) in s o u t h e a s t e r n M a n i t o b a (Fig. 1).
In studying the W R A , a regional m o d e l w a s developed and alternative
locations for a h y p o t h e t i c a l disposal vault w i t h i n the simulated regional g r o u n d
w a t e r flow r e g i m e w e r e e v a l u a t e d to find a location that m a x i m i z e s the r e t e n t i o n
of c o n t a m i n a n t s in the g e o s p h e r e . This p a p e r s u m m a r i z e s s o m e aspects in the
d e v e l o p m e n t of the regional flow m o d e l , and its use in e v a l u a t i n g alternative
locations for the h y p o t h e t i c a l disposal vault.
OPHORI, D.U.: Simulating large scale groundwater flow for waste disposal purposes 265
Fig. 1 Map of the Whiteshell research area showing lineaments (fracture zones), model area and
locations of deep boreholes (Grid areas)
1. bra A Whiteshell Kutatsi Terlet trkpe a trses znkkal, a modell terlettel s a mlyfrsok helyvel
(hls terletek)
Conceptual hydrogeological model of the WRA
The c o n c e p t u a l m o d e l of hydrogeological conditions covers an area of about

2
1050 k m (see Fig. 1), a n d is b o u n d e d on three sides by the W i n n i p e g River
system. T h e c o n c e p t u a l m o d e l was based on surface a n d subsurface geological,
geophysical, g e o c h e m i c a l and hydrogeological data in the W R A collected up to
1994. F r o m an analysis o f the lineaments (see Fig. 1), a total of seventy-six fracture
zones h a v i n g varying lengths and depths w e r e selected for inclusion in the
c o n c e p t u a l m o d e l (Fig. 2). T h e fracture zones strike in different directions, and
w e r e a s s u m e d from field evidence either to b e vertically oriented or to b e low
dipping with a dip of 2 5 from the horizontal (except for two with dips of 5 0 and
10).
Fig. 2 Geologie Framework, Surface Structure and Finite-Element Mesh of the Whiteshell Research
Area. Section A-A' is a Line Joining Point A to Point A'.
2. bra A Whiteshel Kutatsi Terlet fldtani felptse, felszni szerkezete s vges vlts hlja
W i t h i n the WRA, the water table is a subdued replica of the surface topography
w h i c h has a moderate regional slope of about 0.002 from southeast to northwest.
The w a t e r table elevation was used as the top b o u n d a r y condition. T h e Winnipeg
River was assumed to provide stable hydrological boundaries on m o s t sides of
the area, except the northeastern part of the m o d e l area w h i c h is b o u n d e d by a
major fault referred to as the F - F fault. Because there is sufficient local topo
graphic relief around it to capture groundwater flow from considerable depth,
the W i n n i p e g River was assumed to be a no-flow hydrogeologic boundary. T h e
major fault along the northeastern part of the area was also a s s u m e d to b e a n o -
flow boundary. The bottom b o u n d a r y o f the m o d e l at a d e p t h o f 4000 m was
a s s u m e d to be impermeable. Trends in available field permeability data suggest
2 1 2
that permeability at this depth could be 1 0 " m or lower, essentially im
p e r m e a b l e . It was demonstrated that changing these lateral a n d lower b o u n d a r y
conditions does not affect the convective transport of solutes from the selected
locations of a hypothetical vault at 500 m to 1000 m depth to the groundwater
discharge locations in the biosphere ( O P H O R I et al. 1 9 9 6 ) . T h e s e b o u n d a r y
conditions w e r e the same as u s e d in an earlier m o d e l of the W R A ( D A V I S O N et al.
OPHORI, D . U.: Simulating large scale groundwater flow for waste disposal purposes 267
1994) except that the elevation of the water table has b e e n substituted for the
topographic elevation for the top b o u n d a r y condition of the m o d e l .
Permeability data exist from straddle packer tests a n d p u m p i n g tests in
boreholes to depths of 1000 m at the W R A . T h e s e data w e r e analysed in detail b y
S T E V E N S O N et al. (1995). T h e values of permeability used in the simulation for the
rock mass and fracture zones are s h o w n in Table 1. For the rock mass, horizontal
15 2 2 1 2
permeability decreased from 1 x 1 0 " m at the surface to 1 x 1 0 " m at a depth
of 1000 m. T h e anisotropy in the rock was represented b y assigning vertical
permeabilities o n e order of magnitude higher than horizontal permeabilities
b e t w e e n the ground surface a n d 300 m for the granite, and also b e t w e e n 300 a n d
1000 m for the gneiss. Below this depth, the rock mass was assigned a constant
2 1 2
permeability of 1 x 1 0 " m . T h e fracture zones were a s s u m e d isotropic with
13 2 16 2
permeability varying from 1 x 1 0 " m at the surface to 1 x 1 0 " m at a depth of
1000 m. Below 1000 m, the fracture zones were assigned gradually decreasing
1 9 2
permeabilities reaching 7.52 x 1 0 " m at the bottom of the m o d e l (4000 m ) . The
permeability values w e r e derived from the analysis b y S T E V E N S O N et al. (1995).
Porosity values were estimated from field and laboratory data b y S T E V E N S O N et
al. (1996a). T h e s e r a n g e d from 0.003 to 0.001 for the rock mass, a n d form 0.05 to
0.005 for the fracture z o n e s (Table 1).
Flow simulation
For the numerical simulation of groundwater flow using A E C L ' s M O T I F code

( G U V A N A S E N 1 9 8 4 ; C H A N et al. 1 9 8 7 ) , the conceptual model of the rock mass and
seventy-six regional fracture zones was discretized into a finite-element mesh.
This w a s done using the PATRAN pre- and post-processor for finite-element
codes (PATRAN, 1 9 8 9 ) . T h e fracture zones w e r e represented b y planar elements
of uniform 3 m thickness based on field data. T h e m e s h consisted of a total of
3 3 2 3 planar elements, 1 3 8 9 7 solid elements and 1 5 6 1 0 nodes (Fig. 2). T h e M O T I F
code w a s then used to c o m p u t e the h e a d and fluid velocity distributions in the
model. Details of all the simulation results are presented elsewhere ( O P H O R I et al.
1996).
Figure 3 is a typical section A - A ' (see Fig. 2) showing g r o u n d w a t e r flow
velocities across the m o d e l e d region for a calibrated-model simulation. Flow
velocities decrease rapidly in magnitude with depth, b e c o m i n g insignificant (less
6
than 1 x 1 0 " m/a) by a d e p t h of 1 0 0 0 m. This reduction in velocity is caused by
the permeability-depth relationship used in the simulation (see Table 1). M a n y
local flow systems of relatively high groundwater velocities occur near the
ground surface of the m o d e l (i.e. within 5 0 0 m depth). S o m e local and inter
mediate systems are continuous to the bottom of the model. The highest point on
the topographic divide of this section occurs at about the X coordinate of 5 0 0 0 m
w h e r e a s the lowest point is at the X coordinate of - 2 3 0 0 0 m. Because these two
regions are not linked b y a continuous flowline, a regional flow system does not
occur along the section in this simulation ( T T H 1 9 6 3 ) . A regional flow system
m a y occur along other hydraulic sections ( O P H O R I et al. 1 9 9 6 ) , but these large
Hydraulic parameters used in the Calibrated Flow Model
A kalibrlt ramlsi modellben hasznlt hidraulikus adatok

Table I - 1 . tbla
Approximate Horizontal Varticai Effective

Rock Mass Depth Permeability Permeability Porosity
3 3
(m) (m ) (m )
Layer 1 0 - 100 1 0 X io- 5 1 0 X 10- i 0 003

2 1 0 0 - 200 4 46 X io- 4 46 X 10- 1s 0 003
1
3 2 0 0 - 300 5 99 X 10- a 5 99 X io- 17 0 003
2 0 * *
5 00 X - 5 00 X io- 2 0.- 0 003
1
4' 300- 400 7 74 X 10- 9 7 74 X 10- IS* 0 003
1
7 74 X - 9. 7 74 X io- 19 0 003
0 .
3 00 X 10-2 3 00 X 10- 2 0-. 0 003
1
5 400- 500 3 15 X io- 9 3 15 X 10- 18' 0 003
1
3 15 X - 9 * 3 15 X 10- 19. 0 003
3
1 . 50 X 10- 0 1 50 X 10- 2 0.. 0 003
3
6 500- 750 3 . 35 X io- 0 3 35 X 10- 19" 0 003
3
3 . 35 X 10- 0 . 3 35 X io- 2 0. 0 003
3
7 . 50 X io- 1 . . 7 50 X 10- 2 1.. 0 003
3
7 750-1000 1 . 36 X io- 1 * 1 36 X io- 2 0* 0 003
3
1 . 36 X io- 1 1 36 X 10- 2 1. 0 003
3
8 1000-1250 1. 0 X io- 1 0 X 10" 21 0 003
3
9 1250-1600 1. 0 X io- 1 0 X 10" 21 0 003
3
10 1600-2000 1. 0 X io- 1 0 X io- 21 0 003
11 2000-2500 1. 0 X 10-J 1 0 X io- 21 0 003
3
12 2500-3200 1. 0 X io- 1 0 X io- 21 0 002
3
13 3200-4000 1. 0 X io- 1 0 X io- 21 0 001
Approximate Longitudinal Transverse Effective

Fracture Depth Permeability Permeability Porosity
3 3
Zones (m) (m ) (m )
Layer 1 0 - 100 1 0 X 10- 13 1 0 X 10" 1 3

0 05
1 3
2 1 0 0 - 200 1 0 X 10 13 1 0 X io- 0 05
3 2 0 0 - 300 1 0 X 10- 13 1 0 X - 0 05
1 3
4 3 0 0 - 400 1 0 X 10- 13 1 0 X io- 0 05
5 4 0 0 - 500 1 0 X 10- 14 1 0 X 10-1 0 05
6 500- 750 1 0 X 10- 15 1 0 X 10-1 = 0 05
7 750-1000 1 0 X io- 1S 1 0 X - i t 0 05
1 7
8 1000-1250 1 56 X 10- 17 1 56 X io- 0 046
9 1250-1600 8 44 X io- 1S a 44 X 10-i 0 041
1
10 1600-2000 4 61 X io- la 4 61 X io- ' 0 035
11 2000-2500 2 58 X 10- la 2 58 X - 0 028
1 8
12 2500-3200 1 37 X io- la 1 37 X - 0 OIS
13 3200-4000 7 52 X 10- 19 7 52 X io-i 0 005
* Gneiss
* Granite
* * G r a n i t e u n d e r TDS dome
scale flow systems occur below depths of 1000 m in the m o d e l w h e r e flow

m a g n i t u d e s are so small that molecular diffusion is the d o m i n a n t transport
mechanism. This detailed u n d e r s t a n d i n g of flow is required for the selection of
the site for the waste disposal vault.
T h e flow m o d e l w a s calibrated using

pore fluid pressures m e a s u r e d in the
n e t w o r k of boreholes at t h e W R A , as
well as estimates of average ground
water recharge rates d e t e r m i n e d from
experimental sites at the W R A . T h e
) racherge rate w a s used primarily to
adjust the value of vertical
permeability c h o s e n for the top layer of
the model. T h e lateral permeability
and the permeability of t h e d e e p e r
layers in the m o d e l d o n o t affect the
calculations of recharge rate ( O P H O R I &
C H A N 1994a b , O P H O R I 1 9 9 6 , 1 9 9 9 ) . T h e
m e a n a n n u a l r e c h a r g e rate w a s
estimated at about 5 m m from field
experiments (THORNE 1990, 1992;
THORNE & GASCOYNE 1993; THORNE et
al. 1 9 9 1 , 1 9 9 2 ) . This recharge is about 1
percent of the average precipitation of
562 m m at the W R A a n d is within the
range reported for o t h e r parts of the
Canadian Shield (e.g. T H O R N E et al.
1994).
Fluid pressures m e a s u r e d in deep
boreholes at the W R A w e r e u s e d for
adjusting the input parameters in the
d e e p e r layers of the model. T h e r e were
sixteen boreholes with d e p t h s o f about
1000 m in w h i c h fluid pressure h a d
-3
b e e n measured in several packed-off
sections ( S T E V E N S O N et al. 1996b). T h e s e
fluid p r e s s u r e s w e r e c o n v e r t e d to
equivalent freshwater h e a d s a n d used
in t h e g r o u n d w a t e r flow model
3 calibration.
X Ti
Hypothetical vault location
The results of the final flow model

were used in conjunction with A E C L ' s
particle t r a c k i n g c o d e , T R A C K 3 D
(NAKKA & CHAN 1 9 9 4 ) to evaluate
O'QOl ' alternative locations for a hypothetical

() 30NVJ.SIQ disposal vault. U s i n g t h e T R A C K 3 D
code, particles were released on a regular grid at different depths into the
g r o u n d w a t e r velocity field of the calibrated model and tracked to their exit points
at surface. T h e advective travel times of the particles w e r e also determined. Three
different particle release depths, 500-, 750- and 1000 m, w e r e analysed in detail.
The travel times of particles released at a depth of 750 m to their exit locations
at the ground surface are depicted in Fig. 4. These travel times w e r e used to select
a location for a hypothetical disposal vault at a depth of 750 m in the modeled
area.
O t h e r aspects that w e r e c o n s i d e r e d in c h o o s i n g t h e l o c a t i o n for the
hypothetical vault were:
6
1. the location should have long travel times ( m i n i m u m 1 0 a),
2. the location should be an area of at least 2 k m b y 2 k m in size containing no
regional fracture zones at the d e p t h of the vault,
3. the location should have a reasonable level of field data control (i.e. borehole
control within or near the location), and
4. the depth of the hypothetical vault should be within 500 m to 1000 m below
g r o u n d w a t e r surface.
The selected location for the hypothetical disposal vault is indicated in Figure
4. T h e site is about 5 km northeast of the location of the U n d e r g r o u n d Research
Laboratory (URL). Details of the selection process are p r e s e n t e d in O P H O R I et al.
(1996) and D A V I S O N et al. (1996).
Summary
This paper is a s u m m a r y of the regional g r o u n d w a t e r flow simulations

p e r f o r m e d with a conceptual hydrogeologic m o d e l of the Whiteshell Research
Area (WRA). T h e main purpose of the regional flow modeling was to develop a
calibrated model of regional groundwater flow of the W R A , and then use the
calibrated model to evaluate alternative locations for a hypothetical nuclear fuel
waste disposal vault within the flow system.
The M O T I F finite-element code, developed b y A E C L , w a s used in the
simulations. T h e conceptual m o d e l consisted of seventy-six regional fracture
z o n e s w h i c h occur in m a n y directions at various angles in the background rock
m a s s , T h e fracture zones w e r e r e p r e s e n t e d b y t w o - d i m e n s i o n a l elements
e m b e d d e d in a three-dimensional e l e m e n t m e s h representing the rock mass.
The simulation was performed using average values of hydraulic parameters
obtained from field data, a n d assuming that freshwater occupied the entire
m o d e l e d region. T h e model calibration involved a comparison of simulated
recharge rates and reference heads to their equivalent values as estimated from
field data. A recharge rate of 4.8 m m / a was calculated from the results of the
calibrated model. This rate compared favorably with the field estimate of 5.0
m m / a (few percent of precipitation) at the W R A .
Fig. 4 Travel times of particles released from model depth horizon of 750 m
4. bra A 750 m-es mlysgi modellszintbl kiszabadult rszecskk vndorlsi ideje
A particle tracking code, TRACK3D, was used to calculate advective travel

times, p a t h w a y s a n d exit locations of particles from various depths in the
groundwater velocity field of the calibrated model. Using the travel times,
alternative locations were evaluated with the view o f selecting a location that
maximizes the retention of vault contaminants within the g r o u n d w a t e r flow
regime. During this evaluation, consideration was focussed on areas of the W R A
where subsurface field data were available. T h e selected location for the
hypothetical disposal vault is about 5 k m northeast of the U R L lease area, w h e r e
subsurface data exist.
Acknowledgements
I t h a n k N. W S C H E I E R , . C. D A V I S O N , A. B R O W N , M . G A S C O Y N E a n d D . R .
S T E V E N S O N for their constructive c o m m e n t s and helping to improve this paper.
This w o r k was p e r f o r m e d for the Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste M a n a g e m e n t
Program, w h i c h is jointly funded b y AECL and Ontario Hydro u n d e r the
auspices of the C a n d u O w n e r s Group.
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95-271, Pinawa, Manitoba, Canada.
STEVENSON, D. R., SOLBERG, D., GORRIE, J. & BROADFOOT, R. 1996b: High groundwater pressures in
massive grey granite rock, Whiteshell Research Area, Manitoba, Canada. - Atomic Energy of
Canada Limited Xechnical Record.
XHORNE, G. A. 1990: Hydrogeology of surficial materials of Permit Areas D and F and the Lee River
study area in the Whiteshell Research Area. Atomic Energy of Canada Limited Xechnical Record,
TR-498, COG-90-315.
XHORNE, G. A. 1992: Soil moisture storage and groundwater flux in small precambrian shield
t h
catchments. - Proceedings of the 9 International Symposium on Northern Research Basins, 2,
555-588.
THORNE, G. A., CLARKE, D.J. & LAPORTE, J. 1994: Groundwater discharge estimates and sources of
streamflow for the Atikokan Research Area of northwestrn Ontario. - Atomic Energy of Canada
Limited Technical Record, TR-616, COG-93-350.
T H O R N E , G. A. & GASCOYNE, M. 1993: Groundwater recharge and discharge characteristics in granitic
t h
terranes of the Canadian Shield. - Memoirs of the IAH 2 4 Congress on Hydrogeology of Hard
Rock", Oslo, Norway, June 28 - July 2, 1993, 368-376.
THORNE, G. A., LAPORTE, J. M. & CLARKE, D. 1992: Hydrogeology and hydrochemistry of the Rice Creek
watershed of the Whiteshell Research Area 1986-90. - Atomic Energy of Canada Limited
Technical Record, TR-570, COG-92-131.
THORNE, G. A., LAPORTE, J. M. & CLARKE, D. 1992. Hydrometeorological data for the Dead Creek
Watershed, southeastern Manitoba, 1982-89. - Atomic Energy of Canada Limited Technical
Record, TR-540.
TTH, J. 1963: A theoretical analysis of groundwater flow in small drainage basins. - Jour. Geophs. Res.,
68, 4795-4812.
Using the Recharge Area Concept as a strategy

for siting underground nuclear waste
repositories
Az utnptldsi terlet koncepci (Recharge Area Concept)

stratgiai alkalmazsa felszn alatti radioaktv hulladktrol
kutatsban
1 2
Grant S H E N G - J z s e f T T H
(2 Figures, 2 Tables)
Key words: nuclear waste, geologic disposal, groundwater, recharge,

discharge, waste repository, hydrogeologic modelling
Trgyszavak: radioaktv hulladk, fldtani elhelyezs, talajvz, utnptlds, megcsapols,

hulladktrol, hidrogeolgiai modellezs
Abstract
The Recharge Area Concept is the proposition that in Canadian-Shield type natural environments
recharge areas of regional groundwater flow systems are superior for high-level nuclear waste
repositories to other types of groundwater flow regimes, especially to areas of groundwater
discharge. This conclusion is reached from an analysis of basinal groundwater flow models. The
calculations were made for a two-dimensional flank of a fully saturated topographic basin, 20 km long
and 4 km deep, in which groundwater is driven by gravity. Variants of hydraulic-conductivity
distributions were considered: 1) homogeneous; 2) stratified; and 3) stratified-faulted. The faults
attitudes were changed by steps from vertical to horizontal for different variants. The model is
assumed conceptually to represent the crystalline-rock environment of the Canadian Shield.
The hydrogeologic performances of hypothetical repositories placed 500 m deep in the recharge
and discharge areas were characterized by thirteen parameters. The principal advantages of recharge-
over discharge-area locations are: 1) longer travel paths and return-flow times from repository to
surface; 2) robustness of predicted values of performance parameters; 3) field-verifiability of
favourable hydrogeologic conditions (amounting to an implicit validation of the calculated minimum
values of return-flow times); 4) site acceptance based on quantifiable and observable flow-controlling
parameters; and 5) simple logistics and favourable economics of site selection and screening. As a by
product of modelling, it is demonstrated that the presence of old water is not an indication of
stagnancy.
'Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University, 4700 Keele Street,Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3,
Canada
2
D e p a r t m e n t of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G
2E3, Canada
sszefoglals
Az utnptldsi terlet koncepci (Recharge Area Concept) lnyege az, hogy a Kanadai pajzs
tpus termszetes krnyezetekben a regionlis felszn alatti vzramlsi rendszerek utnptldsi
terletei alkalmasabbak nagy radioaktivits hulladktrol kiptsre ms tpus felszn alatti
vzrendszereknl, klnsen a megcsapolsi terleteknl. Erre a kvetkeztetsre a medence mret
vzramlsi modellek elemzsbl juthatunk. A szmtsokat egy 20 km hossz, 4 km mly
topogrfiai medence tkletesen teltett ktdimenzis szelvnyre vgeztk el, ahol a talajvizet a
gravitci mozgatja. A kvetkez vzvezetkpessg-eloszlsi eseteket vettk figyelembe: 1)
homogn; 2) rtegzett; 3) rtegzett s trses. A vetk helyzett a klnbz esetekre lpsenknt
vltoztattuk a fgglegestl a vzszintesig. A modellbe koncepcionlisan a Kanadai Pajzs kristlyos
kzetekbl ll krnyezett ptettk be. Az utnptldsi s megcsapolsi terleteken 500 m
mlysgben elhelyezett kpzeletbeli trolk hidrogeolgijt tizenhrom paramterrel jellemeztk.
Az utnptldsi terleten lv trol leglnyegesebb elnyei a megcsapolsihoz kpest: 1) hosszabb
vndorlsi tvonalak s elrsi idk a troltl a felsznig; 2) sokkal jobb vrhat paramterrtkek;
3) a kedvez hidrogeolgiai felttelek terepi ellenrizhetsge (ami az elrsi idk szmtott
minimum rtkeinek egyrtelmstshez vezet); 4) a telephelynek a mennyisgileg meghatrozhat
s szlelhet ramlsi paramtereken alapul elfogadsa; valamint 5) a telephely kivlaszts s szrs
tlthat logisztikja s a kedvez gazdasgi felttelek. A modellezs mellktermkeknt az is
kiderlt, hogy az ids vizek jelenlte nem utal az ramls hinyra.
Introduction
The general concept of nuclear waste disposal
T h e idea of p e r m a n e n t disposal o f high-level nuclear waste (HLW) in

terrestrial geologic media was extant from at least 1957 (National Research
Council, 1957). Since the first international meeting held over 35 years ago (IAEA,
1960), there has b e e n a tremendous amount of R & D (research & development)
w o r k d o n e t o w a r d s solving this problem. T h e general c o n c e p t a d o p t e d
internationally (e.g. Belgium, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Holland, Japan,
Spain, S w e d e n , Switzerland, U K , USA, etc.) involves the burial of radioactive
wastes in underground repositories to be built approximately 500-1000 m deep
in s o m e stable, terrestrial geologic media with the addition of various engineered
barriers to e n h a n c e further the confinement of contaminants ( S H E N G et al. 1993a;
S H E M I L T & S H E N G , 1983). T h e existing international consensus on the practicability
a n d efficacy of this general approach is typified by the collective opinion" of the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/Nuclear Energy
A g e n c y (OECD/NEA), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the
C o m m i s s i o n for European Communities (NEA/IAEA/CEC, 1991).
Technical issues
Since the overriding concerns of this disposal endeavour are to ensure safety
of h u m a n s and protection of the environment both n o w and far into the future,
a convincing demonstration of the safety of the disposal system primarily
involves technical issues. T h e first is associated with the capability to make
forecasts of far-future events (especially those geologically related), and the
second, with the extent that such forecasts can be confirmed" in some fashion
SHENC, G. & TTH, J.: Using the Recharge Area Concept 277
within the obvious limits of our present time. However, the m e t h o d o l o g y as

presently envisaged to implement the general concept faces some inherent
difficulties in addressing these technical issues. These difficulties stem from the
peculiarities of the disposal technology which is distinguished b y at least two
unique characteristics: (a) the very long time spans (tens-, or e v e n hundreds-of-
thousands of years) over which the disposal system must remain effective and,
(b) no precedents exist for such an endeavour.
The geologic issue
With respect to the first technical issue, m u c h effort and resources have b e e n
devoted by the international community to geologic and geotechnical R & D w o r k
because of the c o n c e p t ' s heavy reliance on the geology to act as a natural barrier
( S H E M I L T & S H E N G 1983; S H E N G et al. 1993a). It is axiomatic to v i e w g r o u n d w a t e r
always as the negative agent that transports contaminants to the surface, and
fractures as the conduits through which the groundwater d o e s the transport.
These assumptions stem from an implicit world-view that w e must s o m e h o w
create a water-tight box" to confine the contaminants. Although there is
a c k n o w l e d g e m e n t that absolute c o n f i n e m e n t m a y n o t b e p o s s i b l e , it is,
nevertheless, the idealized goal, as indicated b y use of terms such as waste
isolation", multi-barriers", etc. T h e box" is to be m a d e water-tight" with a
series of m a n - m a d e (container, buffer, backfill, vault) and natural barriers (host
geologic medium, and associated features). Thus, the major research effort
internationally is directly or indirectly focused on h o w to k e e p groundwater (a)
from intruding into the vault, (b) away from the waste, (c) from exiting the vault,
(d) a w a y from fractures; and (e) studying the influence of fracture a n d fracture-
associated p h e n o m e n a on the m o v e m e n t of groundwater. B o t h (d) and (e) have
been, a n d continue to b e , the main focus of R & D w o r k u n d e r the present vision
of waste disposal.
However, m a n y years of intense research d o c u m e n t e d in publications such as
G E O V A L ( 1 9 8 7 , 1 9 9 0 ) h a v e shown the great difficulties associated with items (d)
and (e). There are at least two underlying factors that give rise to this situation:
(1) an inherent characteristic of fractures is that they are essentially d i s
continuous" on the scale relevant to site characterization and, (2) although
various theories exist to explain the formation and propagation of fractures, the
p h e n o m e n o n is so c o m p l e x that accurate predictions or forecasting of their future
behaviour, even in the short-term, is not yet within the realm of our present
understanding a n d technology. Furthermore, as pointed out in S H E N G et al.
( 1 9 9 3 a ) , e v e n if it w e r e possible to do such accurate p r e d i c t i o n s a n d
characterizations, there is no guarantee that n e w fractures will not form during
the time period that the disposal vault is required to remain effective. T h e s e are
but several of the most salient and fundamental issues that the current disposal
c o n c e p t have yet to resolve.
The validation issue
With respect to the second technical issue, the extent with w h i c h the forecasts
from models can be confirmed (or to use the popular term in this field:
validated") obviously has a great bearing on the degree of confidence one places
on the models a n d their results. However, demonstration of the safety of the
disposal system is problematical in this situation w h e r e the ultimate performance
of the system at some distant point in the future c a n n o t be ascertained.
Adequate/satisfactory performance must be inferred based on a combination of:
(a) our present understanding of natural processes, (b) k n o w l e d g e about relevant
system parameters, (c) our ability to design, and have confidence in, the
e n g i n e e r e d systems and (d) our ability to extrapolate this collection of k n o w l e d g e
far into the future.
C o m p u t e r i z e d simulation is the only m e a n s w e h a v e to c a r r y out
systematically a n d quantitatively such an extrapolation u p o n w h i c h to base an
inference of satisfactory system performance so far into the future. While this
paper presents the results of such a simulation study, the specifics of validating
the underlying m o d e l must be dealt with in detail in another paper in accordance
with a framework proposed by S H E N G et al. (1993b).
The Recharge Area Concept" - (RAC)
In response to the challenges posed b y these two issues, a n e w approach

towards demonstrating safety performance called the R e c h a r g e Area C o n c e p t
(RAC) has b e e n proposed b y T T H & S H E N G (1996). Starting at the most
fundamental level, the philosophical basis of this n e w approach is markedly
different from that of the present waste isolation methodology. Rather than
placing the e m p h a s i s on engineering active" barriers (i.e., containers, buffers,
backfills, etc. to isolate the waste) or avoidance of fractures in the geologic
m e d i u m to confine or retard contaminant m o v e m e n t , the RAC approach relies
on a natural fundamental force (gravity) to do the j o b in a passive" fashion. B y
exploiting k n o w l e d g e about regional g r o u n d w a t e r flow patterns, o n e can
strategically locate a repository at the recharge of a regional flow system so that
escaping contaminants w o u l d b e carried by water d o w n w a r d s d e e p e r into the
earth w h e r e they m a y be trapped in stagnant zones (areas of no-flow) or be
transported along a v e r y long flow trajectory during w h i c h time radioactive
d e c a y w o u l d r e n d e r the radionuclides harmless, if and w h e n , they do ever
surface. In this approach, w e assume that the repository will fail (i.e., leak
contaminants) at s o m e time in the future. T h u s the RAC is a passive safe-fail"
system as o p p o s e d to the type of active fail-safe" systems b e i n g developed
internationally. Moreover, the adoption of the RAC as a siting strategy adds m a n y
other safety features a n d ultimately confers additional significant margins of
safety to the disposal system as compared to the existing general disposal
concept.
SHENG, . & TTH, J.: Using the Recharge Area Concept 279
Premise for development of
The Recharge Area Concept is developed from two basic arguments. First, it is
recognized that the favourable combination of maximum groundwater flow-path
lengths with minimum flow velocities, ensuring m a x i m u m travel times and
m a x i m u m dilution of contaminants, is most likely to occur along flow lines that
originate in regional recharge areas. Second, for recharge positions it appears
possible to confirm calculated travel times, i.e. to confirm model calculations to
the extent n e e d e d for the guaranteed safety of a repository. T h e second point
implies the assertion that minimum travel times can be established which cannot
possibly be negated by u n k n o w n deviations from assumed geologic conditions
such as, for instance, undetected fractures or fault zones. Such an assurance
cannot, on the other hand, be given for other basinal areas, including those of
groundwater discharge. Furthermore, adoption of the RAC as a guiding principle
facilitates and rationalizes the practical procedural aspects of the selection,
screening and evaluation of a repository location. Although e c o n o m y and
logistical ease are not specifically considered in this paper, the great advantages
conferred in these respects by a siting strategy based on the RAC should not be
ignored.
Assumptions of the RAC
The following are assumptions underlying the RAC:

1) the RAC does not purport to predict the groundwater travel time (i.e. w h e n
the groundwater will re-surface at the discharge zone). It merely places a b o u n d
on the fastest time that the g r o u n d w a t e r can possibly re-surface (hence
minimum travel time");
2) the system only delays the escape of contaminants to the surface and does
not necessarily confine them within the vault or the geosphere (i.e. the repository
is assumed to fail sometime in the future);
3) the only significant medium for the transport of contaminants is the
groundwater;
4) the contaminants cannot travel faster than the water front" - i.e. the leading
edge of the transport medium;
5) the geologic medium in which the groundwater flows is saturated;
6) the RAC does not assume constant hydraulic conductivity of the geologic
m e d i u m , nor constant fluid density with depth. (Although variations in values of
these parameters can affect the "shape" of flow patterns, such as the idealized
representations shown in Figures 1 and 2, they do not alter the general direction
a n d other manifestations of the flow patterns.)
Demonstration of safety performance
As discussed in S H E N G et al. (1993b) and C A S W E L L (1976) the most important

e l e m e n t in the process of validating a model is to have a clear understanding, and
to provide a precise statement, in operational terms, of w h a t the goal of the
Figure 1
Recharge
Areas
System
I ' " I' f ' I " I
5 10 15 20
Valley Flank (arbitrary length units)
Fig. 1 Distribution of flow, hydraulic heads, and principal hydraulic regions in drainage basins with
sinusoidally undulating water table superimposed on a linear regional slope (Composite Basin) (from
T T H & SHENG 1 9 9 6 , Figure 1, p. 6 )
1. bra. A vzramls, a hidraulikus emelkedsi magassgok s az elsdleges hidraulikai rezsimterletek eloszlsa

olyan vzgyjt medencben, ahol a talajvzfelsznt egy lineris lejt s egy szinuszos hullmzs sszege rja le
(sszetett medence)
UK
Distance in km
hyvt - Hydraulic head relative to

datum plane d=0; maximum
at divide : 400m
0 Location ol hypothetical repository

Ft
,0
K m = W m/e
Boundary of hydraulic conductivity
Fig. 2 Calculated distributions of hydraulic heads, groundwater flows lines, and isochrones of
groundwater travel-time between water divide and valley bottom, in a basin of homogeneous matrix
hydraulic conductivity (from TTH & SHENG 1 9 9 6 , Fig. 3 , p. 1 1 )
2. bra. A hidraulikus emelkedsi magassgok, felsznalatti vzramvonalak s a vzvlaszt s a vlgy kztti

ramlsi id izokronjainak szmtott eloszlsa olyan medencben, melyben a mtrix hidraulikus vezetkpessge
homogn eloszls
SHENC, G. & Tm, J.: Using the Recharge Area Concept 281
model is. In this present example, the application of the RAC to repository siting,
the goal is to demonstrate the safety performance of the disposal system by
calculating a minimum travel time" (MTT) for the contaminated groundwater to
reach the surface. The M T T is the shortest (or equivalently, the fastest) time that
the groundwater can possibly re-surface at the discharge zone. It is calculated
based o n an estimation of the shortest path length that the water can take from
the repository to the surface in a regional groundwater flow system. The flow
distribution and other associated characteristics of groundwater in such a system
can be derived from the surface topography by applying the fundamental
principle of groundwater flow as first elucidated by TTH (1963).
. The M T T derived from a particular set of topographic and subsurface geologic
conditions can, in the first instance, be compared with the half-life of any specific
radionuclide of concern. Should the M T T be significantly greater than the half-
life of a particular radionuclide (say ten times) then clearly that radionuclide can
be d e e m e d to pose n o potential harm in the future. S h o u l d the half-life be greater
than the MTT, then the m a x i m u m amount of the radionuclide that can possibly
reach the surface can be calculated based on its initial inventory in the repository
together with its half-life. The maximum possible dose from such a radionuclide
can be calculated by estimating its concentration at the point of discharge at the
surface. The surface area n e e d e d to estimate the concentration is u p w a r d l y
b o u n d e d by the lateral extent of the discharge area which can be estimated from
the particular set of topographic and subsurface geologic conditions used in the
simulation study or, alternatively, based on actual m e a s u r e m e n t s if a specific site
is being investigated. The estimated dose figure can then be c o m p a r e d with the
regulatory limit to decide if a particular hypothetical or actual site is safe.
General approach to repository siting based on the RAC
The practical approach to achieve the ultimate objective of safe waste disposal
by employing the RAC m a y be summarized in the following seven basic steps:
1) Selection of a repository location from which groundwater travel times to
prohibited points are assumed (from general considerations, experience and/or
scoping calculations) to be sufficiently large.
2) Calculation of possible travel times by site-specific models of regional
groundwater flow.
3) Calculation of measurable fluid-dynamic parameters of the groundwater
flow regime.
4) Installation of exploratory instrumentation at k e y points in the basin.
5) Verification of the appropriateness (i.e. applicability) of the m o d e l by
comparing the calculated fluid-dynamic parameters with their field determined
values.
6) Acceptance/rejection of the model, depending on the degree of a g r e e m e n t
b e t w e e n calculated and observed values of the dynamic parameters.
7a) If m o d e l is rejected, construction of n e w one and repeating of the process
from Step 3.
7b) If m o d e l is accepted, acceptance/rejection of site based on a comparison of

the calculated m i n i m u m travel times with the required m i n i m u m travel time.
Basic principles, concepts and procedures n e e d e d in the execution of the above
seven steps, as well as considerations in support of the Recharge Area Concept,
are briefly presented in the following sections.
Regional groundwater flow and its characterization
T h e spatial and temporal distributions, the fluid dynamic properties and the
wide array of natural manifestations, i.e. the general characteristics of gravity-
i n d u c e d regional groundwater flow have b e e n studied extensively over the last
three decades ( T T H 1963, 1984; B R E D E H O F T et al. 1982). Also, these issues are
routinely treated in modern texts on hydrogeology (e.g. F R E E Z E & C H E R R Y 1979).
For the p r e s e n t p u r p o s e s it is n e c e s s a r y to r e v i e w briefly o n l y those
characteristics w h i c h are directly relevant to the problem of nuclear waste
disposal in the Canadian Shield.
Groundwater Flow Systems: areas of recharge, discharge and throughflow
G r o u n d w a t e r flow in the Canadian Shield is generally recognized to be driven

by gravity, i.e. by elevation differences of the water table. T h e flow is regionally
unconfined, that is, a change anywhere in the water table entails an adjustment
of the flow pattern throughout the entire domain. In regionally unconfined
gravity-flow fields, groundwater can be at rest only in the idealized situation
w h e r e the u p p e r surface of the water body, n a m e l y the water table, is horizontal
and infinite in areal extent. In real conditions, however, as in the Canadian
Shield, the configuration of the water table is a close replica of the topographic
relief. In such cases, groundwater moves d o w n w a r d , or a w a y from the water
table, u n d e r topographically high regions; it m o v e s upward, or toward the water
table, b e n e a t h topographically low areas as, for instance, stream valleys or lake
basins; and flow is parallel to the water table u n d e r m e d i u m elevations between
m o u n d s and vales. Based on their distinct functions in the subsurface hydrology
of drainage basins these three different regions of groundwater hydraulics are
termed, respectively, as recharge-, discharge- and throughflow-, or midline-,
areas of groundwater (Fig. 1).
A family of flow lines originating in a given recharge area and terminating in a
given discharge area is referred to as a groundwater flow-system. Flow systems
terminating in discharge areas which are immediately adjacent to their recharge
areas are called local systems, whereas the systems connecting the principal
recharge areas with the principal discharge areas of a topographic basin are
termed regional (Fig. 1). Intermediate systems m a y straddle one or more local
systems without, however, extending from the principal watershed to the main
valley. In basins with complex groundwater flow patterns (e.g., Fig. 1), different
hydraulic regions of local and higher order flow systems m a y spatially coincide.
At Site 2, for example, the discharge area of a local system is superimposed on the
SHENG, G. & TTH, J.: Using the Recharge Area Concept 283
descending limb, i.e. recharge portion, of the regional system, whereas at Site 3
local recharge is underlain by the regional discharge area.
Additional complications m a y be introduced into the pattern of basinal
groundwater flow by permeability variations. The effects on the flow patterns of
heterogeneities, such as fault zones and fractures, depend on their degree, areal
extent, orientation with respect to flow lines, and elevation of outcrop regions.
Comparison of key characteristics of regional groundwater flow regimes
Flow in recharge vs. discharge areas
The two basic arguments upon which the RAC has been developed, as stated
earlier, are: 1) that a position in a regional recharge area ensures the m a x i m u m
degree of dilution and m a x i m u m possible travel times back to the land surface (as
c o m p a r e d with other positions in a basin of similar hydrogeologic properties) for
contaminants possibly escaping from a repository, and 2) that it is recharge
e n v i r o n m e n t s w h e r e the g r o u n d w a t e r flow-characteristics are sufficiently
insensitive to discrepancies b e t w e e n actual hydrogeologic conditions and
conditions assumed for purposes of calculations, to allow the construction of
adequately robust flow models and their validation. Clearly, the above reasoning
is relativistic: it compares the effects of different positions in topographically
defined drainage basins on those hydrogeologic attributes w h i c h play a role in
r e g i o n a l g r o u n d w a t e r flow. T h e greatest contrasts in the basinal scale
hydrogeologic attributes can be expected to exist b e t w e e n regional recharge and
discharge areas, which represent opposite end-members of basinal flow- and
transport-conditions ( T T H 1984). It is logical, therefore, that a comparison
b e t w e e n the relevant key characteristics of regional g r o u n d w a t e r low in
recharge-and discharge-areas should provide an adequate test of the validity of
the above arguments and, thus, of the Recharge Area Concept.
M o d e l calculations
The following sections briefly describe a modelling study which demonstrates

the advantages of locating an underground repository in a regional recharge
zone. Full details about the model, parameters, and results are given in T T H &
S H E N G (1996).
Scope and method of model calculations
Four key characteristics of basinal groundwater flow have b e e n calculated by

n u m e r i c a l modelling. T h e calculations w e r e p e r f o r m e d for h y p o t h e t i c a l
repositories located at depths of 500 m and 1000 m respectively in both recharge-
and discharge-areas of topographically defined basins which are underlain by a
geologic framework of varying permeability distributions. T h e four flow
characteristics are: 1) return time", ts, or the travel time of water from a
repository to the land surface; 2) repository-age of water", tr, or the travel time
of water from the land surface to the repository; 3) return route", Is, i.e. the
length of flow line leading from the repository to the land surface in the direction
of flow; a n d 4) fault route", If, or the total length of that flow line inside of a
h i g h l y c o n d u c t i v e fault w h i c h passes also t h r o u g h a repository. T h e s e
characteristics w e r e determined with reference to a point 500 m below the land
surface and 1 k m distant from the lateral boundaries of the basin (Fig. 2 ) . T h e
point is considered to represent the upper edge of a repository. T h e repository
extends over a surface area of 2x2 k m (size of the reference repository in the
Canadian disposal concept) a n d its centre coincides with the basin's lateral
boundaries at both the water divide (recharge side) a n d valley bottom (discharge
side).
T h e general p u r p o s e of the modelling e x p e r i m e n t s w a s to establish a
conceptual reference framework of the key characteristics of regional ground
water flow for the Canadian Shield. To this e n d , basinal patterns of hydraulic
heads, flow lines a n d travel times were c o m p u t e d for a variety of basin-
permeability configurations using geologic data a n d field conditions typical of
Shield conditions.
T h e g e o m e t r y of the modelled basin is constant for all variants. It simulates o n e
flank of a centrally symmetrical depression as, for instance, o n e side of a river
valley (TTH 1963). T h e width of the modelled basin's flank is 20 k m a n d it's
d e p t h at the valley is 4 k m . T h e flow domain is enclosed by i m p e r m e a b l e
boundaries o n the two sides a n d the bottom, a n d b y a sinusoidal water table, (i.e.
a sinusoidal distribution of the fluid potential) along the top (Fig. 2 ) . T h e water
table is h i g h e r b y 4 0 0 m at the divide than at the valley bottom.
Two basic, or reference, distributions of basin permeability are used, namely:
o n e h o m o g e n e o u s (Fig. 2) a n d o n e stratified into three horizontal d e p t h ranges
of different p e r m e a b i l i t i e s . T h e latter case w a s further m o d i f i e d b y t h e
introduction of highly permeable fault zones w h i c h lead with a slope from points
of fixed depths at the lateral basin boundaries to outcrops at the land surface or
horizontally, to the opposite lateral b o u n d a r y thus abutting against it without
outcropping. T h e purpose of introducing the faults w a s to examine the potential
effects o n travel times a n d flow-path lengths of highly permeable conduits
located at or n e a r a repository that might remain undetected, a n d thus ignored,
while modelling real life situations. In the different model variants, the attitude
of the faults w a s c h a n g e d b y discrete steps b e t w e e n a vertical position at the
b o u n d a r y a n d the horizontal. T h e various characteristics a n d conditions of the
m o d e l are s u m m a r i z e d in Table I.
T h e key flow properties were determined by visual interpolation from the
model's direct outputs, w h i c h are: basinal patterns of equipotentials (hydraulic
heads), flow lines, travel times (indicated b y time-step beads on flow lines) and
isochrone lines of the travel time. Specifically, travel times were estimated b y
interpolation b e t w e e n c o m p u t e d isochrone values, a n d travel distances were
expressed as relative lengths along flow lines passing through the reference
point. T h e calculations were performed b y the code F L O W N E T , developed b y
v a n E L B U R G et al., ( E N G L E N & J O N E S 1986). F L O W N E T m o d e l s t w o - d i m e n s i o n a l
SHENG, G. & TTH, ].; Using the Recharge Area Concept 285
Table 1 - /. tbla
FAULT TRAVEL TIME OF WATER

Modal Basin Type Position In Depth at Distance at 'Return time' 'Age of water'
version Basin near Outcrop from from Repository t Repository
(Name) (same as Boundary Boundary to Surface (years)
t
repository) (m) (m) (years) s
HReO homogeneous rep.: recharge N. A. N. A. 3,4X106 8,0 X io

4
lault: none
HDiO
" rep.: discharge N. A N. A. 9,5 X 1 0 4
3,4 X 106
fault: none
SReO stratified rep.: recharge N. A. N. A. e x 10 1,25 X 10$
fault: none
SDiO ~~~ rep.: discharge N. A N. A. 1,1 X 10b 8,0 x
6
fault: none
SRe5/1,6 stratified recharge 500 1600 3 x 106 2,0 X i o 5
SReS/13,6 500 13600 1 . 3 X 10*> 3,2X104
SRe5/2O,0 ' 500 20000 8,3 X 10b 3,0 X *
SRe5/h - 500 horizontal (3,5 to 8,7) X 105 3.0 X 10*
SRe 10/2,6 stratified recharge 1000 2600 2,96 X 106 6,5 X io*
SRe10/11,4 - 1000 11400 1,17X106 2,8 X 104
SRe10/20,0 - 1000 20000 9,5 X 105 2,7X10*.
SRe10/h ' - 1000 horizontal (1,83to5,0)xio5 2,7X10*
SD5/2.8 stratified discharge 500 2800 1,8 X 10b 2,6 X 106
SDiS/11.2 - " 500 11200 2,7 X 1 0 * 1,26 X 106
SD5/20.0 " " 500 20000 2,3 X 1 0 4
8,5 X IQ5
S0i5/h * " 500 horizontal 2,7X10" 6,5 X I Q 5
SDi 10/2,6 stratified discharge 1000 2600 6,3 X 10
4
3,0 X 106
SDi 10/11,4 " 1000 11400 2,8 X * 1.15X 10&
SOilO/20,0 " 1000 20000 2,5X104 7,0 X io5
souom 1000 honzontal 2,5 X 104 4,2 X IQ5
steady state, groundwater flow in a rectangular, h e t e r o g e n e o u s a n d anisotropic

d o m a i n of the subsurface with arbitrary water-table configuration, b y the
t e c h n i q u e of finite differences.
Discussion of modelling results
T h i r t e e n h y d r o g e o l o g i c characteristics that have b e e n calculated b y the

g r o u n d w a t e r flow-modelling and are relevant to the d e v e l o p m e n t of a strategy
for repository site-selection are summarized in Table II. In order to e m p h a s i z e the
contrast b e t w e e n conditions in recharge and discharge areas the characteristics
for these hydraulic regions are juxtaposed in the Table. T h e unfaulted stratified
basin is considered as the basic, or reference, basin. T h e hydrogeologic conditions
established for this basin variant are accepted as the fundamental rationale for
the R e c h a r g e Area Concept. T h e faulted-basin variants have b e e n generated in
order to examine if the presence of conduit faults might negate the conclusions
d r a w n from the basic model.
The m o s t fundamental advantage of a repository location in a regional
g r o u n d w a t e r recharge area as opposed to that in a discharge area is s u m m e d up
in the first four items in Table II. Collectively they indicate that in a recharge area,
g r o u n d w a t e r flows d o w n w a r d with respect to the land surface, at decreasing
velocities w h i c h m a y approach zero in the direction of flow a n d b e n e a t h the
water divide. Conditions are opposite, on the other h a n d , in discharge areas:
w a t e r m o v e s from depth toward the land surface with increasing intensity in the
directions of flow and the thalweg boundary. In the field, the sense of flow
Table II - II. tbla
Item HYDROGEOLOGIC GROUNDWATER REGION

Number CHARACTERISTICS RECHARGE AREA DISCHARGE AREA
1 hydraulic head qradient upward downward
2- vertical pressure gradient less than hydrostatic greater than hydrostatic
3- vertical component of flow downward upward
4* drivlpj-force past therepositoryin direction downward weak, upward strong and
of flow and toward divide decreasing to zero increasing
5 " minimum return route from repository to greater than 20 km 500 m
surface (unfaulted stratified basin)
6 effect of faults on minimum return route reduce to -20 km nil
(unfaulted)
7" return-time from repository to surface 8*l06a t 1,1xiob a t
(unfaulted stratified basin) s SR SO
8 effect of dipping faults on minimum return reduce to: possibly increase up to
time from repository (3 to 0,33) x 10 a 6
1,8xio5 a, mostly
s
reduce to 0,23 x 10 a
9 effect of horizontal fault on minimum return reduce to: reduce to:
time from repository (1,83to5,0)xio5 a 2,5K10 a 4
10 " minimum flow-path length from surface to 500 m greater than 20 km

repository (unfaulted stratified basin)
11 effect of faults on minimum flow-path length nil reduce to -20 km
to repository (unfaulted)
12 " age of water at repository t -1.3X105 a t r p -8,0X106 a t r D
r
(unfaulted stratified basin)
13 effect of faults on age of water at repository reduce to: reduce to:
4
-(2,7 t o 3 , 2 ) * 1 0 a -(0,42 to 2,6) x 10
* general conditions
" conditions in reference (unratified and stralified) basin
directions can be readily determined b y m e a s u r e m e n t s of fluid pressures and/or

w a t e r levels in wells.
As a c o n s e q u e n c e of the opposite nature of conditions in these hydraulic
e n v i r o n m e n t s , two associated k e y characteristics, n a m e l y the return-route length
a n d the return time also are m o r e favourable for recharge area locations (Table 11,
I t e m s 5, 7 ) . Contaminants, possibly escaping from a recharge-area repository
w o u l d have to travel virtually the full width of the basin plus twice the depth to
w h i c h regional flow would take them. If originating from areas within one
kilometre of the divide boundary, this flow penetrates into the l o w permeability
b a s e m e n t thereby delaying c o n t a m i n a n t return both b y a d d i n g distance and
r e d u c i n g velocity; the route length is significantly greater than 20 km. From a
discharge area position, on the other h a n d , the contaminants w o u l d only have to
travel 500 m, mostly through the high permeability weathered z o n e , to reach the
land surface. T h e different conditions are amply reflected b y the difference in
return times (Table II, Item 7): 8x106 a for the recharge area repository and 1.1x105
a for the discharge area repository. Both the return-route length and the return
time h a v e significant bearings on the safety of a nuclear waste facility. T h e longer
the route, the greater a proportion of the contaminants is adsorbed on the rock
matrix's minerals; the longer the travel time the larger proportion of the
radioactivity decays.
T h e age of the water in the recharge and discharge areas (Table II, Item 12) are
n o t e w o r t h y from two stand-points. During the 1.3x105 years that descending
meteoric waters take to reach a repository in a recharge area they will be largely
d e p l e t e d in free or dissolved oxygen and will not be an oxidizing agent. In the
SHENG, G. & TTH, ].: Using the Recharge Area Concept 287
discharge area, o n the other hand, b y virtue of its high age, an 8x106 year old
water could be mistaken to indicate stagnancy, yet it is only 1.1x105 years away
from the surface.
All the above n u m b e r s are modified by the presence of faults. Nevertheless, all
the parameters h a v e m i n i m u m values that can b e evaluated for realistic
conditions.
T h u s , faults c a n r e d u c e the r e t u r n - r o u t e l e n g t h to a m i n i m u m o f
approximately 20 k m for a recharge-area repository, but c a n n o t c h a n g e the 500 m
in a discharge area. Similarly, the return travel times can be significantly reduced
by faults in recharge areas: from 8x106 to 0.18x106 years in the absolute extreme
(the m i n i m u m value o f the error bar), but more likely only to approximately
0.8x106 years (Table 11, Items 7 , 8 , 9). An important point h e r e to n o t e is that, with
the exception of those recharge area faults w h i c h r u n the full l e n g t h of the basin
and outcrop in the valley bottom, n o n e of the faults can c o n v e y water directly
from the vicinity of the recharge divide to the land surface. B u t even in these
extreme cases, water that descends from the surface within o n e kilometre of the
basin's crest is forced to m o v e across these faults d o w n into the low velocity or
the stagnant z o n e of the basin and then travel its full width, largely through the
low permeability b a s e m e n t , to emerge in the discharge area s o m e 107 years later!
All these n u m b e r s can b e increased purposefully further b y selecting a basin
configuration with a lower elevation difference b e t w e e n valley a n d the upland,
a longer flank and a broader divide than those in the present model. Faults m a y
reduce the return travel times in discharge areas also. In the calculated cases
(Table 11, Items 7, 8 , 9 ) the reduction is from 1.1x105 to 2.3x104 years. (Actually, the
upper limit obtained for a n e a r vertical fault is ~ 4x105 years.) However, because
return times and return-route lengths are controlled b y local conditions in
discharge positions, modifying the regional basin characteristics, n a m e l y b y the
choice o f the basin, will have little or no effect on these parameters.
S u m m a r y and c o n c l u s i o n
1) A n e w a p p r o a c h in d e m o n s t r a t i n g the safety p e r f o r m a n c e o f an
u n d e r g r o u n d nuclear waste disposal facility is proposed. Based on the R e c h a r g e
Area Concept, it e m b o d i e s the view that a clear understanding of regional
groundwater flow patterns can be exploited so as to have g r o u n d w a t e r delay the
transport of escaped contaminants to the surface through either e n t r a p m e n t in
stagnant zones of no-flow or through transport along a very long flow trajectory.
This passive 'safe-fail' system can be seen as adding another barrier" to the
planned system of engineered/geologic multi-barriers as envisioned in the
existing general disposal concept adopted internationally.
2) In addition to the e n h a n c e m e n t of total system safety, a siting strategy based
o n the RAC m a k e s it possible to c o n f i r m m o d e l l i n g results w i t h field
m e a s u r e m e n t s that can be extrapolated far into the future.
3) From the v i e w p o i n t of contamination transport b y groundwater, recharge
areas are superior to discharge areas for the siting of high level nuclear waste
repositories. R e c h a r g e area locations assure considerably greater m i n i m u m

travel-path lengths and return-flow times than do discharge area locations, and
their effectiveness can be evaluated and purposefully modified; this type of
control is not possible for discharge area locations.
4) T h e possible presence of, even undetected, faults does not negate nor
c o m p r o m i s e the theoretical superiority or the suitability of recharge areas.
5) T h e hydrogeologic conditions required for the suitability of a recharge area
location can b e recognized and confirmed from field observations, and to the
extent n e e d e d for safety, evaluated and critically assessed b y modelling. This is
not possible for discharge-area positions: the sensitivity of regional hydro-
geological conditions to changes in their controlling factors is l o w as compared
with that of the local conditions. Consequently, regional m o d e l estimates are
robust relative to those from local models.
6) Regional g r o u n d w a t e r flow can be exploited to e n h a n c e the role (utility) of
the g e o s p h e r e as a barrier to radioactive waste transport b y judiciously selecting
the basin a n d locating the repository near the basin's crest. S u c h deliberate
exploitation, as it were engineering, of natural conditions is not possible for
discharge-area repository-positions.
7) Adoption of the RAC as a siting strategy would greatly minimize the
e c o n o m i c cost a n d simplify the logistics of site screening and selection, especially
if properly used with GIS and remote sensing technologies that are presently
available a n d u n d e r g o i n g significant development.
Acknowlegdements
The authors wish to thank dr. van E L B U R G for providing the F L O W N E T

c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m u s e d in the m o d e l l i n g calculations; to M s L i a n e
S C H L I C K E N R I E D E R for assistance in r u n n i n g the model; to the Technical Advisory
C o m m i t t e e for its support of this work; and to its m e m b e r s for their valuable
c o m m e n t s a n d discussions in refining the RAC. T h e research was also supported
by a Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council grant to G. S H E N G .
References
BREDEHOFT, J. D., BACK, W. & HANSHAW, B . B . 1982: Regional Ground-water Flow Concepts in the
United States; historical perspectives. - Geological Society of America Special Paper 1 8 9 , 297-316.
CASWELL, H. 1976: The validation problem. - In: PATTEN, . C. (Ed.): Systems Analysis and Simulation
in Ecology, Vol. IV, Academic Press, 313-325.
ENGELEN, G. B . & . JONES, G. P (Eds) 1986: Development in the analysis of groundwater systems. -
International Association of Hydrogeological Sciences, Publication Number 1 6 3 , 1 2 7 - 1 4 0 .
FREEZE, R. A. &. CHERRY, J. A 1979: Groundwater. - 604 p., Prentice-Hall Inc., New Jersey.
GEOVAL 1987: A symposium on validation of geosphere flow and transport models organized by the
Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, SKI, in cooperation with OECD/NEA. Stockholm.
GEOVAL 1990: A symposium on validation of geosphere flow and transport models organized by the
Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, SKI, in cooperation with OECD/NEA. Stockholm, May
14-17.
SHENC, G. & TTH, ].: Using the Recharge Area Concept 289
IAEA 1960: Disposal of radioactive wastes. - Proceedings of a conference held in Monaco, Nov. 1959.
International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna.
National Research Council, 1957: Publication 91, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
NEA/IAEA/CEC 1991: Disposal of radioactive wastes. Can long-term safety be evaluated? A collective
opinion of the Radioactive Waste management Committee, Advisory Committee, International
Atomic Energy Agency. - OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, Paris.
SHEMILT, L. W. & SHENG, G. 1983: An Overview of nuclear waste management. - Energy, Exploration,
and Exploitation, 2/1, 42-55.
SHENG, G., LADNYI, . & SHEMILT, L. W 1993a: Canada's High-Level Nuclear Waste Disposal Concept:
The evaluation process and a review of some aspects of the research work. - Energy Studies
Review, 5 / 3 , 1 6 5 - 1 7 9 .
SHENG, G., ELZAS, M. S. E REN, . I. & CRONHJORT, . T. 1993b:, Model validation: A systemic and
systematic approach. - Reliability Engineering and System Safety 42, 247-259.
TTH, J. 1963: A theoretical analysis of groundwater flow in small drainage basins. - Journal of
Geophysical Research 68/16, 4795-4812.
TTH, J. 1984: The role of regional gravity flow in the chemical and thermal evolution of groundwater.
- In: HITCHON, B. & WALLICK, E. I. (Eds): Proceedings, First Canadian/American Conference on
Hydrogeology; Practical applications of groundwater chemistry, Banff, Alberta, Canada, June
2 2 - 2 6 , 1 9 8 4 , Worthington, Ohio, National Water Well Association, 3-39.
TTH, J. & SHENG, G. 1996: Enhancing safety of nuclear waste disposal by exploiting regional
groundwater flow: The Recharge Area Concept. - Hydrogeology Journal 4/4, 4 - 2 5 .
A bizonytalansg rtkelse a
fldtudomnyokban
The role and handling of uncertainty in the Earth's sciences
1 2 3 3
B R D O S S Y Gyrgy - F O D O R Jnos - M O L N R Pter - T U N G L I Gyula
( 8 bra, 4 tblzat)
Key words: bootstrap methods, error, fuzzy sets, reserve estimation, uncertainity
Trgyszavak: svnyvagyon becsls, bizonytalansg, bizonytalan halmazok, bootstrap mdszerek, hiba
Abstract
The aim of this article is to review the main problems of uncertainty in the Earth's Sciences,
particularly in geology and to propose methods for their handling. The term error is applied in this
paper for quantified uncertainty. That is, the error is the difference between a true value and an
estimate of that value. The error consists of the following main components:
- The natural variability of geologic objects and processes.
- T h e error of measurements, where measurement bias and random deviations should be
distinguished.
- The limited possibility to sample geologic objects in space and time.
Mathematical methods are used to quantify uncertainty. Unfortunately, the theory of probability has
certain limitations when applied to geological problems:
- The additivity axiom does not allow gradual transitions from one population to the other.
- Several statistical methods prescribe repeated experiments, impossible to perform in many
geological investigations, e.g. repeated drilling of borehole sets with small changes of location.
The statistical study of closed systems" leads in several cases to spurious results.
For the handling of uncertainties and error the authors suggest the application of some up to date
mathematical methods, such as:
- Geostatistics, that is the theory of regionalized variables.
- Interval analysis.
- Fuzzy set theory (see Figure 1).
- Bootstrap methods.
- Jacknife methods.
- Cross validation.
In the next section the authors review generalized steps of the geologic investigations respective to
uncertainty and error. The following steps are discussed:
- Representative sampling of geologic objects in space and time.
- Measurements and observations on geologic objects.
- Descriptive statistical evaluation of the data obtained.
- Inferential evaluation and modelling.
1
1055 Budapest, Kossuth L. tr 18
2
llatorvostudomnyi Egyetem Biomatematikai s Szmtstechnikai Tanszk 1078 Budapest,
Istvn t 2.
3
Golder Associates Hungary, 1021 Budapest, Hvsvlgyi t 54.
- Predictions in space and time based on the models.
Four tables were constructed containing the main subjects of the topics listed above, the reasons of
uncertainty for each case and the suggested mathematical methods to solve the problems. The spatial,
the temporal and the complex predictions are discussed separately and methods are suggested for the
solution of each problem. The most difficult task is to perform predictions for complex systems, such
as reserve estimations of mineral deposits, environmental impact statements for constructions in and
on geologic objects, safety assessments for the disposal of toxic and radioactive waste etc. According
to our knowledge, only traditional deterministic and stochastic methods were applied so far to handle
the above listed tasks.
Unfortunately, the meaning and role of uncertainty, error, random events and risk are often
confounded in the articles dealing with these problems. Therefore, definitions and explanations of
these notions are presented in this paper.
The fuzzy methods are considered by the authors to be particularly efficient in solving the
problems of uncertainty and error in geology. Four examples are presented to illustrate the
application of the method:
Differential thermogravimetry is suitable to detect the mineral composition of rock and soil
samples. The M O M derivatograph with an attached computer measures the phase composition with
an average 10% weight error. The limit of detection varies from 1 to 5%, depending on the chemical
and mineral compositions of the sample. 36 rock samples, collected from the late Permian Boda
Claystone Formation (southern Hungary) were measured and evaluated first by the traditional
method, furnishing crisp values and in a second step by the fuzzy method. It is of top importance that
the calculation of the fuzzy numbers occurred jointly by the thermoanalist, the geologist and the
mathematician, thus assuring a maximum level of measurement and geologic experiences. The results
of a selected sample are presented on Figure 2. The statistical evaluation of the fuzzy numbers of all
samples opened the possibility to distinguish the natural variability of the formation from the errors
of measurement. Ranking the minerals according to the amount of measurement error (expressed by
the fuzzy numbers) furnished new information about the methodology of the measurements and the
properties of the formation. The results of these evaluations will be published in a separate paper.
A similar evaluation was carried out on 36 samples collected from the same formation, by using
X - r a y diffractometry and X-ray spectrometry. The average error of the phase analysis was 10% and
the limit of detection varied from 0.5 to 5%. Figure 3 illustrates the crisp and fuzzy results of the phase
analysis of one rock sample. Here again a statistical study of the crisp and fuzzy numbers was carried
out. The results were correlated with different rock features. These results will also be published in a
separate paper.
The measurement of water transmissivity in fractured rocks is a particularly complex and difficult
problem. 32 packer measurements from boreholes in the above mentioned Boda Claystone Formation
were evaluated by traditional and fuzzy methods. Additionally 104 packer measurements from
boreholes in the granite massif of Mrgy, southern Hungary, were also evaluated. The results of
some measurements represented by fuzzy numbers are shown on Figures 4. 5. and 6.
The identified mineral deposits are of particular geologic and economic interest. Experiences show
that in many places the following basic mathematical rules are not observed when calculating ore
reserves:
- Ranges of influence are not calculated for the main parameters of the calculations.
- Normality of the main features is not checked by corresponding normality-tests, however non
normal, highly asimmetric distributions are frequent. In such cases robust M-estimators or non-
parametric methods should be applied.
- The results of the reserve calculations are presented in the form of point-estimates, instead of
interval estimates, referring to an adequately chosen level of confidence.
In the above cases the ore reserves are significantly biased. Furthermore, the traditional methods
do not allow sufficient insight into the uncertainties and errors of the calculations. To eliminate these
shortcomings, a new methodology is presented by the authors, based on the fuzzy set theory:
Determination of the area of the reserves. First the geologically most probable contours are
constructed, taking into account all available geological and geophysical information about the
deposit.The minimum area is then determined for the case when all features (circumstances) take
BRDOSSY Gy. et al: A bizonytalansg rtkelse a fldtudomnyokban 293
most unfavourable values. In a third step the maximum area is calculated for the most favourable
values. Figure 7 represents an example of these extreme boundaries, taken from the Halimba bauxite
deposit (Hungary). Finally a triangular fuzzy number is constructed by these three results.
Determination of the average thickness. First normality tests are performed and the corresponding
methods are applied to calculate the average thickness. The standard error of the mean is taken for
the core" of a trapezoidal fuzzy number. A confidence interval is calculated, using 95 % level of
confidence. This interval corresponds to the Support" of the fuzzy number, representing the average
ore thickness.
Determination of the average bulk density of the ore. First step is the determination of the
analytical error of the bulk density determinations. Normality test for the distribution of analytical
results follow. The standard error of the mean gives the core, the confidence interval at 95% level of
confidence the support of the resulting trapezoidal fuzzy number.
Calculation of the reserves. The three fuzzy numbers are multiplied following the rules of fuzzy
arithmetic. The resulting fuzzy number represents the ore reserves (Figure 8). The minimum and
maximum values of the support indicate only the two extreme situations, with the best and worst
conditions. The real range of possibility is indicated by the core of the fuzzy number.
Calculation of ore quality occurs in the same way as for the quantity of ore.
Recoverable ore reserves can be also calculated when taking into account the planned mining
losses and contaminations. The errors of these two parameters are included into the construction of
the corresponding fuzzy number.
Commercial reserves can be calculated by taking into account the corresponding technical and
economic parameters. The errors of these parameters serve as input values for the construction of the
corresponding fuzzy number. These fuzzy numbers allow the calculation of the probability and of the
amount (consequences) of investement and mining risk.
For the detection of undiscovered mineral deposits - in known districts - special probabilistic
methods have been developed, such as the weights-of-evidence, the weighted logistic regression
(ACTERBERG et al.1993) and the probabilistic neural networks methods (SINGER & KOUDA 1997,1999).
Conclusion. A systematic study of uncertainty and error is suggested by the authors for all steps of
geologic investigations. A great advantage of the fuzzy approach is the interdisciplinary cooperation
of the geologist, the mathematician and the expert of the given field of study. The application of the
above listed new mathematical methods should take place in as many fields of geology as possible.
sszefoglals
A fldtudomnyi kutatsok sorn kzismerten sok bizonytalansggal tallkozunk. Ennek ellenre

viszonylag kevs cikk foglalkozik ezzel a krdssel (KACEWICZ 1993; MANN 1993; PORTER & FIARTLEY
1997; Proc. NEA Workshop 1987) s ezek a dolgozatok is csak egy-egy rszterletet rintettek. Eddig
egyetlen olyan cikkel sem tallkoztunk, amely a bizonytalansgot a fldtudomnyok egszben,
tfogan rtkeln. A jelen tanulmny clja ezrt a bizonytalansgok tfog ttekintse, tovbb
olyan mdszerek bemutatsa, amelyekkel cskkenteni lehet ket. Alapveten a tgabb rtelemben
vett fldtan tudomnyterletre sszpontostottuk figyelmnket, de egyes esetekben a geofizikai,
fldrajzi, bnyszati, st meteorolgiai problmkra is kitekintettnk.
Alapvet fogalmak
A bizonytalansg f l d t u d o m n y i defincijt n e m sikerlt fellelnnk a hazai s

a n e m z e t k z i s z a k i r o d a l o m b a n . A legismertebb fldtani r t e l m e z sztr, az
amerikai Glossary of G e o l o g y (1987), tovbb a francia Dictionnaire de gologie
(1984) nem tartalmazza a bizonytalansg cmszt. A vlerriam-Webster's
Collegiate D i c t i o n a r y (1997) szerint a b i z o n y t a l a n s g (uncertainty) a n n a k tudata,
hogy megfigyelseink s mrseink a termszeti valsgtl tbb-kevsb
eltrhetnek. A fldtudomnyi szakirodalomban tbbszr is keveredik a
bizonytalansg s a hiba fogalma, pedig a kett n e m ugyanaz. A fent emltett

M e r r i a m - W e b s t e r ' s Collegiate D i c t i o n a r y szerint a hiba (error) v a l a m e l y
megfigyels v a g y mrs e r e d m n y e i n e k eltrse a valsgtl. Ezrt szmunkra a
hiba a s z m s z e r s t e t t , h i b a h a t r o k k z szortott b i z o n y t a l a n s g . A
bizonytalansgnak s a hibnak v l e m n y n k szerint kt sszetevje van:
Az els a fldtudomnyi kpzdmnyek, j e l e n s g e k s folyamatok termszetes
vltozkonysga (variability) ( W H I T T E N 2 0 0 0 ) . Ezen bell a vltozkonysg
mrtke igen klnbz lehet a viszonylagos egyveretsgtl (homogenitstl) a
nagyfok vltozkonysgig. E mellett a vltozkonysg jellege is befolysolja a
b i z o n y t a l a n s g o t . Tapasztalataink szerint a v l t o z k o n y s g n a k szablyos
(rendezett) s szablytalan (rendezetlen) sszetevi vannak. R e n d e z e t t sszetev
pl. az l e d k s s z l e t e k b e n g y a k r a n m e g f i g y e l h e t ciklusossg, v a g y e g y
fokozatos vltozst jelz trendfellet. Ezeket megfelel vizsglatokkal fel lehet
ismerni s szablyszersgket matematikailag is le lehet rni. A rendezetlen
sszetevknl erre nincs md. Ismereteink szerint a fldtudomnyok terletn
nincs sem tkletes rendezettsg, sem rendezetlensg. Az utbbit kosznak
nevezik. A legutbbi vekben a rendezettsg s a kosz vizsglata a lgkri
jelensgek m e g i s m e r s b e n fontos j felismersekhez vezetett ( G T Z 1 9 9 8 ) .
A fldtudomnyi kutatsok megismersi folyamatknt is felfoghatk. Az
e n n e k sorn vgzett m r s e k s megfigyelsek sohasem r h e t n e k el tkletes
pontossgot, mindig van kisebb, vagy nagyobb hibjuk. Ez is tnyezje a
bizonytalansgnak. A mrsi hibk rtkelshez s cskkentshez elenged
hetetlenl szksges a vletlenszer s a szisztematikus jelleg hibk meg
klnbztetse. E krdskrnek elssorban a kmiai analitikban van kiterjedt
szakirodalma, a m e l y n e k f megllaptsai azonban a fldtani trgy mrsekre is
r v n y e s e k ( D A Y & U N D E R W O O D 1 9 9 1 ) . Tovbbi hibaforrs az, h o g y nincs m d u n k
a vizsglt fldtani k p z d m n y m i n d e n egyes pontjnak megkzeltsre s
megvizsglsra. Kzismert, hogy a felszni feltrsok, frsok, aknk s a
fldalatti b n y s z a t i l t e s t m n y e k t b b n y i r e csak az a d o t t k p z d m n y
tredknek kzvetlen megismersre nyjtanak lehetsget. Ezrt is van n a g y
j e l e n t s g e a geofizikai m r s e k n e k , mert olyan helyekrl is informcit
szolgltatnak, a h o v a egybknt n e m tudnnk eljutni. Azt sem szabad viszont
figyelmen kvl h a g y n u n k , hogy m a g u k n a k a geofizikai m r s e k n e k is v a n
hibjuk.
H a g y o m n y o s kirtkelsi mdszerekkel a termszetes vltozkonysgot s a
mrsi hibkat n e m lehet egyrtelmen megklnbztetni. Ez klnsen akkor
baj, ha a mrsi hiba nagyobb a termszetes vltozkonysgnl. A megismersi
folyamat sorn egyre tbb adatra tesznk szert. Ezeket szakterletenknt a
l e g k l n b z b b fldtani, slnytani, fldrajzi, geofizikai stb. m d s z e r e k k e l
dolgozzk fel. Van azonban egy ltalnosan rvnyes szempont is, n e v e z e t e s e n
az, h o g y m i n l tbb adattal rendelkeznk, annl inkbb nlklzhetetlenek a
feldolgozshoz a m a t e m a t i k a i mdszerek! A b i z o n y t a l a n s g o k s a h i b k
szemszgbl n z v e a matematikai mdszerek alkalmazsnak ketts clja van:
- A bizonytalansg felvltsa szmszerstett hibahatrokkal.
- A pontossg m e g n v e l s e a hibahatrok szktsvel.
A bizonytalansg s hiba cskkentsre alkalmazhat

matematikai mdszerek
A fldtudomnyokban eddig fknt a h a g y o m n y o s matematikai statisztika

m d s z e r e i nyertek alkalmazst, belertve ide a robusztus s n e m p a r a m t e r e s , az
egy, kt s sokvltozs mdszereket. Ezek a mdszerek olyannyira ismertekk
vltak, h o g y ismertetsket itt feleslegesnek tartjuk. A h a g y o m n y o s val
s z n s g e l m l e t a z o n b a n csak korltozott m r t k b e n n y j t l e h e t s g e t a
bizonytalansgok kezelsre. E n n e k oka a valsznsgelmlet alaptteleiben
(aximiban) rejlik. K O L M O G O R O V ( 1 9 3 3 ) a valsznsgelmlet albbi h r o m
aximjt fogalmazta meg:
1. Az adott e s e m n y t r m i n d e n A e s e m n y h e z tartozik egy P(A) szm, a m e l y az
A e s e m n y valsznsgt fejezi ki, s amelyre teljesl, h o g y 0 < P(A) < 1
2 . A biztos e s e m n y valsznsge 1, azaz P( Q ) = 1
3. Az e g y m s t p r o n k n t kizr e s e m n y e k sszegnek valsznsge az egyes
e s e m n y e k valsznsgnek sszegvel egyenl, azaz
(, + A + ... + A ) = P(A,) + P ( A ) + .... + P ( A )
2 n 2 n
A h a r m a d i k aximt nevezik az additivits t r v n y n e k s ez a valsznsg

sztochasztikus meghatrozsnak legfontosabb alapttele. E trvnybl
kvetkezik, h o g y egy mrsi pont vagy teljes m r t k b e n az adott populcihoz
tartozik, vagy egyltalban n e m tartozik hozz. Mrpedig tapasztalataink szerint
a f l d t u d o m n y o k terletn tbbnyire n i n c s e n e k ilyen les hatrok. g y a
fldtani k p z d m n y e k igen gyakran fokozatosan m e n n e k t egymsba. Pl.
ledkfciesek, m a g m s k p z d m n y e k kzetfajti, vagy a m e t a m o r f fciesek.
Az t m e n e t i z n b a n a m r s i p o n t o k m i n d k t s z o m s z d o s p o p u l c i
tulajdonsgait magukba foglaljk kisebb, vagy nagyobb mrtkben. Mivel ez a
j e l e n s g az additivits trvnye alapjn n e m rhat le valsgh m d o n , les
mestersges hatrok felvtelhez vezetett. U g y a n e z e n okbl a egyes mrsi
bizonytalansgokat sem lehet a valsznsgelmlet alapjn megfelelen
jellemezni.
S z m o s statisztikai becslshez megismtelt mintavtelre v a n szksg. A
fldtani kutats sorn azonban erre tbbnyire nincs lehetsg. Vegyk pldul
egy svnyi nyersanyagtelep kutatst, ahol szablyos hlzatban 1 0 0 frst
mlytettek le. A megismtelt mintavtel e b b e n az esetben azt j e l e n t e n , hogy a
hlzat lefrst n m i eltolssal s forgatssal legalbb harmincszor m e g kellene
ismtelni. Nyilvnval, h o g y ez teljesthetetlen kvetelmny, ami egyszeren
n e m valsthat meg. Ekkor viszont a becsls hibjt n e m lehet kiszmtani.
Tovbbi korltozst j e l e n t e n e k az n. zrt rendszerek, m e l y e k sszege egy
elre meghatrozott fix szm. Ilyen rendszert k p e z n e k pldul a kzetek
s z z a l k b a n m e g a d o t t v e g y e l e m z s e i s svnyfzis-elemzsei. Elmletileg
kimutattk, h o g y a zrt rendszereken vgzett egyes statisztikai szmtsok, pl.
korrelcivizsglatok tbb-kevsb hibs e r e d m n y e k h e z v e z e t n e k ( C H A Y E S
1960).
A m a t e m a t i k a i statisztika a l k a l m a z s t v g l e g y b i z o n y o s m i n i m l i s
m i n t a s z m is korltozza. Gyakorlati statisztikusok tapasztalatai szerint kb. 3 0 az
a minimlis mintaszm, amely mellett a statisztikai szmtsok eredmnyeit m g

szavahihetknek tekinthetjk ( T U K E Y 1 9 7 7 ) . Sajnos a fldtani kutatsok sorn
gyakran elfordul, h o g y e n n l kevesebb mintra t u d u n k szert tenni, a m i
korltozza a h a g y o m n y o s statisztikai mdszerek alkalmazhatsgt.
Az utbbi vtizedekben tbb olyan j matematikai elmletet dolgoztak ki,
m e l y e k mdszerei a h a g y o m n y o s a k n l sokoldalbban s teljesebben k p e s e k a
bizonytalansg s a hiba kezelsre ill. kisebb mintaszm esetn is megbzhat
e r e d m n y e k e t szolgltatnak. K z l k t a n u l m n y u n k e l k s z t s h e z a z
albbiakat vizsgltuk meg:
A geostatisztika, pontosabban a regionalizlt trbeli valsznsgi vltozk
elmlete ( M A T H E R O N 1 9 7 1 ) , amely vilgszerte szleskr alkalmazst nyert, st
tbb mint kt vtizede haznkban is bevezetsre kerlt a bauxit s az urnrc
kutatsban( B R D O S S Y 1 9 9 2 ) . g y rezzk ezrt, h o g y a geostatisztikai mdszerek
ismertetse itt n e m szksges. Csupn arra utalunk, h o g y a geostatisztika vrl-
vre j mdszerekkel s alkalmazsokkal bvl.
A bizonytalansgok feloldsa szempontjbl a legfontosabb e s e m n y a fuzzy
h a l m a z o k e l m l e t n e k megalkotsa volt, amely Z A D E H ( 1 9 6 5 , 1 9 7 8 ) n e v h e z
fzdik. Alapgondolata az, hogy a m i n d e n n a p i letben fellp bizonytalansgot,
pontatlansgot korrekt matematikai eszkzkkel kezelhetv tegye. A
bizonytalansg itt abban ll, h o g y n e m csak igaz-hamis, fekete-fehr, igen-nem
tpus lltsokkal kell s z e m b e n z n n k , h a n e m b i z o n y o s fokig, bizonyos
mrtkig igaz kijelentsekkel is. H a a bizonytalansg fokt szmszersteni
tudjuk, akkor megfelel matematikai eszkzkkel kezelni is tudjuk azt.
Mra a fuzzy halmazok e l m l e t n e k mdszereit egyre szlesebb krben
alkalmazzk a gazdasgi let, az ipar, a kzlekeds s a vzgazdlkods szmos
terletn (ZIMMERMANN 1991; FODOR & ROUBENS 1994). A legutbbi idkben
n h n y fldtudomnyi alkalmazsra is sor kerlt. V l e m n y n k szerint e z az
e l m l e t nyjtja a l e g s z l e s e b b k r l e h e t s g e k e t a f l d t u d o m n y o k b a n
j e l e n t k e z b i z o n y t a l a n s g o k s z m s z e r s t s r e s c s k k e n t s r e . Ezrt a
m d s z e r alapelveit az albbiakban rviden ismertetjk.
Fuzzy (bizonytalan) halmaz alatt dolgok olyan sszessgt rtjk, amelynek
n i n c s e n e k les hatrai s p o n t o s a n m e g h a t r o z o t t tulajdonsgai. A fuzzy
halmazokat n. tagsgfggvnyek (membership functions) segtsgvel
szmszerstjk. Adott A fuzzy h a l m a z e s e t n e g y x d o l o g h o z r e n d e l t
tagsgrtk (membership value) egy 0 s 1 kztti szm, a m e l y hovatartozst"
(membership) fejez ki. Minl kzelebb van a tagsgrtk az l - h e z , x annl inkbb
az adott A sszessghez tartozik, minl inkbb a 0 kzelben van, annl kevsb.
A legjobb ezt egy pldn megvilgtani.
rjuk le tagsgfggvny segtsgvel a fiatal szemlyek" sszessgt. Tudjuk,
h o g y n e m v o n h a t les hatr a fiatal" s a kzpkor" szemlyek halmazai
kz. Ezrt csak azt m o n d h a t j u k biztonsggal, hogy a 2 5 vnl fiatalabbak
egyrtelmen fiataloknak tekinthetk, a 4 0 vnl idsebbek pedig idseknek. E
kett kztt tmeneti sv van, ahol a szemlyeket rszben fiataloknak s rszben
k z p k o r a k n a k l e h e t tekinteni. E szban lertakat t a g s g f g g v n n y e l is
brzolni lehet ( 2 . bra). Termszetesen ez az rtkels csak e g y adott orszgra s
egy adott idpontra vonatkozik, hiszen a fiatal kor megtlse orszgonknt s
BRDOSSY . et al: A bizonytalansg rtkelse a fldtudomnyokban 297
k o r o n k n t is igen eltr lehet. Ezrt is beszlnk e b b e n az esetben bizonytalan

halmazrl.
Fuzzy s z m o k (fuzzy numbers) alatt olyan specilis fuzzy halmazokat rtnk,
a m e l y e k tagsgfggvnyei a vals szmok valamely rszhalmazn v a n n a k
rtelmezve. Tulajdonkpen a konvencionlis vals s z m o k (crisp n u m b e r s )
l t a l n o s t s n a k felelnek m e g , s a l k a l m a s a k arra, h o g y e g y - e g y m r s
bizonytatansgt rjk le. Adott fuzzy szm esetn a pozitv tagsgrtkkel
rendelkez vals szmok sszessgt a szban forg fuzzy szm tartjnak
nevezzk. Azon vals szmok sszessgt, a m e l y e k tagsgrtke 1, a fuzzy szm
m a g j n a k hvjuk.
Fuzzy szmokra az albbi kt tulajdonsg teljeslst kveteljk m e g :
Normltsg: van legalbb egy olyan pont, a m e l y tagsgrtke 1 (vagyis egy
fuzzy szm magja n e m res)
Konvexits: egy fuzzy szm tagsgfggvnye egy m o n o t o n n v e k v (felszll
g), utna e g y konstans, majd egy m o n o t o n cskken (leszll g) szakaszbl ll.
A fuzzy s z m o k tbbek kztt hromszg, n g y s z g s trapz alakak
l e h e t n e k , szimmetrikusak s aszimmetrikusak egyarnt. A kiterjesztsi elv
alkalmazsa r v n fuzzy szmokkal u g y a n a z o k az aritmetikai m v e l e t e k
elvgezhetk, m i n t a vals szmokkal (sszeads, kivons, szorzs, oszts, stb).
Specilis i n d e x e k segtsgvel a fuzzy s z m o k n a g y s g szerinti s o r r e n d b e
rendezhetk. Kiszmthat tovbb kt fuzzy szm tvolsga is, valamint tbb
fuzzy szm tlaga, szrsa stb. Ezen fell m i n d e n egyes fuzzy szm sajt tlagt
s medinjt is ki lehet szmtani. Vgl a fuzzy szmtsok v g e r e d m n y t vals
(crisp) szmokk lehet visszaalaktani. Ezt nevezik defuzzifiklsnak.
A fuzzy h a l m a z o k elmlete sikeres fldtudomnyi alkalmazsnak kulcs
krdse a tagsgfggvny helyes felvtele, hiszen az elmlet m e g e n g e d i a
szemlyes szakmai tapasztalatok figyelembe vtelt. Clszer elszr az 1
tagsgrtk, legelfogadhatbb pontot vagy szakaszt (vagyis a fuzzy szm
magjt) kijellni, majd a mrs alapjn szba j h e t legkisebb s l e g n a g y o b b
rtket. E z e k e n a p o n t o k o n ri el a tagsgfggvny a nulla rtket, s a kztk
lv szakasz a fuzzy szm tartja.
Tapasztalataink szerint clszer, ha ezt az rtkelst az rintett fldtudomnyi
szakemberrel egytt egy a fuzzy halmazok alkalmazsban jratos matematikus
vgzi el. Az gy felvett tagsgfggvnyekbe m i n t e g y b e p l n e k e kt szakember
szakmai tapasztalatai.
H a d d e m l k e z t e s s n k itt arra, h o g y a valsznsgelmletben is elfordul a
szubjektv szakismeret beptse (a priori valsznsg) a szmtsok m e n e t b e ,
m g p e d i g a B a y e s m d s z e r e k alkalmazsakor. E k t s g t e l e n l h a s z n o s
megkzelts a z o n b a n igen krlmnyes szmtsokat ignyel ( R E I M A N N & T T H
1985).
S o k a ltszlagos h a s o n l s g a v a l s z n s g e l m l e t s r s g f g g v n y e i ,
v a l a m i n t a fuzzy h a l m a z o k t a g s g f g g v n y e i k z t t , de ez c s a k formai
hasonlsg. A d n t klnbsg egyrszt az, h o g y a tagsgrtkek valsznsgek
helyett a hovatartozs ill. a bizonytalansg mrtkt fejezik ki, msrszt, h o g y a
valsznsgelmlet legfontosabb aximja, az additivits itt n e m r v n y e s . Ez a
k r l m n y k l n s e n a fldtudomnyi alkalmazsok szempontjbl fontos.
HAGYOMNYOS MDON
FUZZY TAGSGFGGVNYEKKEL
1. bra. Az letkor-csoportok elvlasztsa hagyomnyos mdon s fuzzy tagsgfggvnyek

segtsgvel
Fig. 1 Distinction of age groups by crisp and fuzzy sets
Vgl, m i n t az jl ismert, a srsgfggvnyek alatti terlet egysgnyi, azaz

t e r l e t e g y s g r e n o r m l t a k . E z z e l s z e m b e n a t a g s g f g g v n y e k terlete
k l n b z lehet, viszont maximlis tagsgrtkknt ktelezen az 1 rtket
veszik fel, azaz maximlis rtkre normltak. Fontos tudnival m g , h o g y a
s r s g f g g v n y e k t a k t h a t k fuzzy t a g s g f g g v n y e k k ( B R D O S S Y &
DUCKSTEIN 1995).
Mit nyjt teht a fldtudomnyok szmra a bizonytalan h a l m a z o k elmlete?
- A bizonytalansg mrtke szmszersthet.
- A termszetes vltozkonysg s a m r s e k hibi sztvlaszthatok.
- Valsghen lehet lerni a fldtani tmeneteket.

- A statisztikai szmtsokat fuzzy szmokkal is el lehet vgezni.
- Az adott szakember tapasztalatait be lehet pteni a tagsgfggvnyekbe.
A trapz alak fuzzy szmok a vals intervallumok ltalnostsaknt is

felfoghatk. Ez utbbiakkal az i n t e r v a l l u m - a n a l z i s foglalkozik, a m e l y a
bizonytalansgot gy veszi figyelembe, hogy pontszer rtkek helyett inter
v a l l u m o k k a l s z m o l ( M O O R E 1 9 6 6 ) . E z k t s g k v l a l k a l m a s a b b teszi a
bizonytalansg szmszerstsre, de a m d s z e r vltozatlanul a valsznsg
elmlet alapjn ll a n n a k sszes fent emltett korltozsval e g y e t e m b e n . Ezrt
elssorban kzelt megoldsknt j h e t szba.
A bootstrap eljrs olyan, s z m t g p e s szimulcin alapul statisztikai
mdszer, amely kis szm ( 1 0 - 3 0 ) rendelkezsre ll adat esetn alkalmazhat a
klasszikus statisztikai mdszerek megbzhatsgnak ellenrzsre ( E F R O N &
T I B S H I R A N I 1 9 9 3 ; D A V I S O N & H I N K L E Y 1 9 9 7 ) . H a valamely n e l e m statisztikai
m i n t b l szmtott statisztikval b e c s l j k az i s m e r e t l e n eloszls e g y
paramtert, akkor ritkn llnak rendelkezsre olyan formulk, amelyekkel
e n n e k s t a n d a r d hibja, v a g y adott m e g b z h a t s g i s z i n t k o n f i d e n c i a
intervalluma kiszmthat. A bootstrap mdszerrel a meglev mintbl
visszatevssel jra v e s z n k n elem mintt, amelybl szintn elvgezhetjk a
paramterbecslst. Ezt sokszor megismtelve az eredeti becsls darab utnzatt
kapjuk. Ezen rtkek empirikus szrsa jl kzelti a becsls standard hibjt. Az
empirikus kvantilisek segtsgvel szerkesztett konfidencia intervallum pedig j
kzeltse az elmleti konfidencia intervallumnak. A szmtgp segtsgvel
rvid i d alatt akr 1 0 0 0 ilyen szimulcit is elllthatunk. A p r o g r a m
tovbbfejlesztsvel olyan fontos statisztikai m u t a t k kiszmtst is pontostani
lehet mint a ferdesg s a lapultsg.
A jacknife mdszer elvt s rendeltetst tekintve a bootstrap-pel rokon
statisztikai mdszer ( R O C K 1 9 8 8 ) . Segtsgvel szintn a kis statisztikai mintaszm
esetn fennll bizonytalansgokat lehet kikszblni. A jacknife m d s z e r
alkalmazsakor is egy m e g l e v statisztikai mintbl i n d u l u n k ki, ezttal azonban
g y n y e r n k j m i n t k a t , h o g y az e r e d e t i b l m i n d i g e l t v o l t u n k e g y
m i n t a e l e m e t . A f e n n m a r a d n - 1 adatbl r e n d r e k i s z m t j u k a k r d s e s
paramtereket. g y az eredeti becsls n darab jacknife utnzatt nyerjk. Ezekbl
az adatokbl a bootstrap m d s z e r elvhez hasonlan lehet a standard hiba
kzeltst, valamint pontosabb konfidencia intervallumokat megadni. A
m d s z e r egyik ltalnostsa az n. d-delete jacknife, amikor az eredeti mintbl
m i n d e n lehetsges m d o n meghatrozott d szm adatot tvoltunk el.
A cross-validation (kereszt megersts) m d s z e r v e l a trbeli m o d e l l e k
bizonytalansgt szmszersthetjk. L e g y e n n s z m trbeli adatunk, pl.
feltrsok, frsok, m e l y e k e n v a l a m e l y trbeli e l r e j e l z m d s z e r r e l , pl.
k r i g e l s s e l t r m o d e l l t alkottunk. K v n c s i a k v a g y u n k m o d e l l n k b i z o n y
talansgra. K i h a g y u n k egyet trbeli adataink kzl s a tbbi adatbl pont-
krigels segtsgvel kiszmtjuk a kihagyott p o n t legvalsznbb rtkt. Ezutn
k p e z z k a tnyleges s a szmtott rtk klnbsgt. Ez lesz a modell hibja az
adott pontban. Ezt a szmtst az n tag sokasg m i n d e n egyes trbeli adatra
elvgezzk, majd kiszmtjuk az n darab klnbsg tlagt s szrst. Ezekkel

jellemezhet az adott trmodell pontossga, hiszen minl nagyobb az tlagos
klnbsg s a szrs, annl pontatlanabb, hibsabb az adott modell. A kereszt
megerstst fknt geostatisztikai trmodellek ellenrzsre szoktk hasznlni,
de m s trmodellek ellenrzsre is alkalmas.
A megismersi folyamat vizsglata a bizonytalansg oldalrl
A k v e t k e z k b e n r v i d e n ttekintjk a fldtani kutats f lpseit s

megvizsgljuk, h o g y hol s milyen mrtk bizonytalansggal kell szmolnunk.
A m e g i s m e r s folyamata a f l d t u d o m n y o n bell t u d o m n y g a n k n t s
szakterletenknt igen eltr lehet, v l e m n y n k szerint mgis fel lehet lltani
egy ltalnos sorrendet:
1. Munkahipotzis ksztse a tulajdonkppeni kutats megkezdse eltt, a
meglev ismeretekre alapozva.
2. A reprezentatv mintavtel trben s idben.
3. A megfigyelsek s mrsek a mintkon.
4. A mrsi e r e d m n y e k feldolgozsa.
5. A szmtsi e r e d m n y e k kiterjesztse s modellalkots.
6. Az elrejelzsek (trbeli, idbeli, komplex) ksztse a modellek alapjn.
E lpsek j o b b ttekintse cljbl tblzatokat ksztettnk, amelyekben
egysges formban felsoroltuk a fontosabb vizsglatokat, majd a hozzjuk
tartoz bizonytalansg okait, vgl pedig azokat a mdszereket, amelyekkel a
bizonytalansgot cskkenteni lehet. Ezek a tblzatok feleslegess teszik az egyes
kutatsi lpsek rszletes ismertetst, helyette csak egy-egy kiemelten fontos
krdst vitatunk meg.
A bizonytalansg szempontjbl rendkvl fontos az, h o g y kutatsunkat
milyen lptkben vgezzk. Vizsgldhatunk mikromretekben, pl. mikro
szkppal, vagy elektronmikroszondval, tanulmnyozhatunk egy vagy tbb
felszni feltrst, egy fldtani k p z d m n y egszt, egy szmos k p z d m n y t
tartalmaz sfldrajzi, v a g y nagytektonikai egysget, v a g y akr az egsz
fldkrget. A kutats lptktl fggen ms s ms lesz a vizsglt objektum
vltozkonysga, valamint a megismersi folyamat bizonytalansga. Ezeket az
rdemi klnbsgeket fejezi ki a lptk-tnyez (scaling factor).
A reprezentatv mintavtel bizonytalansga (I. tblzat)
A fldtani kutats egyik legjelentsebb bizonytalansgi tnyezje, hogy a

vizsglat trgyt szinte sohasem lthatjuk t teljes egszben, h a n e m csak
kltsges kutatsi ltestmnyek s m r s e k alkalmazsval, n h n y kivlasztott
helyen s idpontban mintavtellel tudjuk vizsglni. Itt kell megemlteni, hogy
statisztikai rtelemben n e m c s a k a frmagok, kzetdarabok, smaradvnyok s
vzmintk j e l e n t e n e k mintt, h a n e m mi nden megfigyels s mrs, amit a
k p z d m n y e n vgznk, a statisztikai minta rsze.
A reprezentatv mintavtel bizonytalansga

Uncertainly of representative sampling
1. tblzat - Table I
A vizsglat trgya A bizonytalansg oka Javasolt mdszerek 1

Mintavtel srsge vltozkonysg, ler statisztika ~~* j
hatstvolsg variogram szmts |
mintavtel rendszere trbeli helyzet, alak trmodellek figyelembe
vtele j
mintk mrete tl kevs mintaanyag ler statisztika
tkletlen homogenizls mrsi metodikk
fejlesztse |
mintaszm tl kevs minta bootstrap, j acknife 1
intervallum analzis |
A mintavtel akkor reprezentatv, ha valsghen jellemzi az adott kpzd

m n y t . A reprezentatv mintavtel mdszereinek bsges n e m z e t k z i irodalma
van. Ebbl itt csak annyit emltnk meg, h o g y minl srbben h e l y e z k e d n e k el a
mintavteli pontok, annl kisebb a bizonytalansg. A minimlis m e g e n g e d h e t
mintavteli srsget variogramok segtsgvel lehet m e g h a t r o z n i , de persze
e n n e k az eljrsnak is m e g v a n a sajt bels hibja, amit j h a elre meghat
rozunk. Sajnos m g m a is gyakran elfordul, h o g y kt szomszdos mintavteli
p o n t kztt automatikusan interpollnak anlkl, h o g y a hatstvolsgokat
ismernk. Pedig a hatstvolsgot m e g h a l a d interpolls n e m egybb res
formalizmusnl s csak a bizonytalansgot nveli.
A megfigyelsek s mrsek bizonytalansga (II. tblzat)
A k p z d m n y e k e n vgzett helyszni megfigyelsek tbbnyire kvalitatv, vagy

flkvantitatv jellegek. Ezzel s z e m b e n a laboratriumi m r s e k t l n y o m a n
kvantitatv s flkvantitatv e r e d m n y e k e t szolgltatnak. E m r s e k megismtel
h e t s g e lehetv teszi a bizonytalansg szmszerstst, azaz hibahatrok
felvtelt. Sajnos a hazai gyakorlatban ezeket gyakran n e m adjk m e g , ezltal
l n y e g e s e n m e g n v e l v e a kirtkels bizonytalansgt. A m r s e k bizonytalan
sgt alapveten befolysolja az adott m s z e r pontossga. A fldtani gyakor
latban gyakran elfordul, h o g y gyval l n e k verbre, azaz igen kltsges
m s z e r e k s m d s z e r e k alkalmazsval prbljk nvelni a pontossgot, holott
a modellalkots sorn meglev bizonytalansg ennl nagysgrendekkel n a g y o b b
hibt e r e d m n y e z h e t .
A fldtani kutatsban gyakoriak az olyan megfigyelsek, a m e l y e k e t csak
kvalitatve t u d n a k lerni, jelzk segtsgvel: pl. igen ritka, ritka, gyakori, igen
gyakori. A fuzzy set elmlet mdszereinek segtsgvel ezeket az e r e d m n y e k e t
is szmszersteni lehet s alkalmass t e h e t k az egyttes kirtkelsre a
bizonytalansg egyidej figyelembe vtelvel. A viszonylag n a g y hibkat tartal
m a z flkvantitatv vizsglati m d s z e r e k pl. svnytani fzisanalzis esetben is,
tapasztalataink szerint, r d e m e s a h a g y o m n y o s statisztika helyett a fuzzy set
elmletet alkalmazni. Mg a h a g y o m n y o s statisztika alkalmazsval csak az
A mrsek s megfigyelsek bizonytalansga

Uncertainity of measurements and observations
11. tblzat - Table 11
A vizsglat trgya A bizonytalansg oka Javasolt mdszerek

kvantitatv mrsek mrsi mdszerek hibi, megismtelt mrsek,
(nhny % hiba) mszer pontatlansga, ler statisztika,
vegyelemzsek analitikai geostatisztika
hibja!
flkvantitatv mrsek s mrsi mdszer hibi, nemparamteres statisztika,
megfigyelsek (>10 % hiba) mszer pontatlansga intervallum analzis,fuzzy
mdszerek
kvalitatv megfigyelsek megfigyels mdszere, fuzzy mdszerek (els
(igen kevs, kevs, a lers mdja lehetsg a szmszer
kzepes, sok, igen sok") kirtkelsre)
egsz adathalmazra vonatkoz hibahatrokat lehet megadni, addig a fuzzy

tagsgfggvnyekkel mintnknt lehet a bizonytalansgot jellemezni. Erre a
ksbbiekben n h n y konkrt pldt m u t a t u n k be.
Egy m s i k lehetsg az ilyen bizonytalan, flkvantitatv a d a t h a l m a z o k
sorrendi feldolgozsa. Ilyenkor az eredeti mrsi e r e d m n y e k helyett azok
nagysgrendi sorrendjt hatrozzuk meg, majd ezekkel szmolunk. A mate
matikai szakirodalom szmos mdszert ismertet a sorrendi adathalmazok
feldolgozsra. N a g y adathalmazok esetben risi knyebbsget jelent, hogy
szmtgpes programok v a n n a k az adathalmazok ilyenirny talaktsra
(ranking).
A mrsi eredmnyek kirtkelsnek bizonytalansga (III. tblzat)
Itt csupa olyan szmts szerepel, amely a hagyomnyos statisztika md

szereivel elvgezhet. K l n s e n fontos az n. kiugr rtkek megfelel
kezelse, mert e n n e k mellzse komoly hibaforrs lehet. Hasonlan slyos
hibaforrs lehet a normalits vizsglatok mellzse, tekintettel arra, hogy a
fldtanban igen gyakoriak a normlistl eltr eloszls tulajdonsgok. E kt
krdssel a kzelmltban rszletesebben foglalkoztunk ( B A R D O S S Y 1997). A mrsi
e r e d m n y e k elsdleges feldolgozsa sorn a bizonytalansg oldalrl teht n e m
l p n e k fel n e h e z e n megoldhat problmk. A baj inkbb az, hogy az itt ajnlott,
ismert mdszereket tbbnyire n e m veszik ignybe a kutatk s ezltal lphetnek
fel rdemi hibk.
A szmtsi eredmnyek kiterjesztse s a modellalkots bizonytalansga(lV. tblzat)
Az elsdleges adatfeldolgozs e r e d m n y e i n e k kiterjesztse a vizsglt

kpzdmny, vagy folyamat egszre az eddigi pontbecslsek helyett inter
vallumbecslst tesz szksgess.
A problma itt az, hogy a konfidencia szint kivlasztsakor a becsls pontos
sga s megbzhatsga kztt kell a helyes egyenslyt megtallni ( B A R D O S S Y
1997).
Az eredmnyek statisztikai feldolgozsnak bizonytalansga

Uncertainly of the statistical evaluation
III. tblzat - Table III
A vizsglat trgya A bizonytalansg oka Javasolt mdeszrek

adatsokasg rendszerezse kiugr rtkek doboz diagramok
tulajdonsg tlagok normlistl eltr eloszls robusztus s nemparamteres
kiszmtsa mdszerek
vltozkonysg lersa u. a. normalits vizsglatok,
nemparamteres mdszerek
tulajdonsgok sszefggse linearits hinya korrelci s regresszi
elemzs nemparamteres
mdszerei
sszehasonlts ms normalits hinya homogenits vizsglatok
kpzdmny kkel
csoportok kialaktsa tves csoportbesorolsok cluster-, diszkriminancia
elemzs, nem lineris
skravetts
A fldtani kutats egyik l e g n e h e z e b b s legtbb bizonytalansggal j r

feladatkre a helyes modellalkots. Mint ismeretes, t e r m s z e t t u d o m n y o s rte
lemben a modell a termszeti valsg leegyszerstett, az emberi elme szmra
ttekinthet s matematikailag is lerhat lekpezse. A fldtanban K R U M B E I N &
G R A Y B I L L ( 1 9 6 5 ) n y o m n brzolsi (scale models), tulajdonsg (feature models)
s folyamat ( c o n c e p t u a l models) modelleket szoktak m e g k l n b z t e t n i . A
m o d e l l e k m a t e m a t i k a i lersra e d d i g d e t e r m i n i s z t i k u s s s z t o c h a s z t i k u s
mdszereket hasznltak. V l e m n y n k szerint szmos esetben a fuzzy m o d e l l e k
alkalmazsa a l e g e r e d m n y e s e b b . A determinisztikus m o d e l l e k alkalmaz-
A kiterjeszts s modellalkots bizonytalansga

Uncertainity of extension and modelling
IV. tblzat - Table IV
1 A vizsglat trgya A bizonytalansg oka Javasolt mdszerek

tulajdonsgok kiterjesztse megismtelt mintavtel intervallumanalzis,
kpzdmnyre hinya, konfidencia szint bootstrap,
helytelen megvlasztsa fuzzy mdszerek
svnyvagyon becslsek hinyos kutatsi adatok, hagyomnyos mdszerek,
(szilrd, folyadk, gz) mdszertani hibk krigels, fuzzy mdszerek,
1 teleptani modelljei kereszt megersts
2 D , 3 D brzolsi-, a kpzdmny ill. folyamat szimulcis ellenrzs,
tulajdonsg, folyamat s nem kell ismerete kereszt megersts,
1 genetikai modellek kiegszt kutats
hatsga v l e m n y n k szerint korltozott, hiszen igen ritkn ismerjk egy-egy

fldtani folyamat sszes h a t t n y e z j t ill. e z e k m e n n y i s g i arnyt. Az
brzolsi s tulajdonsgmodellek bizonytalansgnak megjelentsre kivlan
alkalmasak a krigelsi szrstrkpek, magt a modellt a kereszt megersts
mdszervel lehet ellenrizni, l. hibjnak nagysgt szmszersteni.
Napjaink fldtani kutatsainak egyik legslyosabb problmja, h o g y miknt
ismerhetk fel a tves, hibs genetikai modellek s miknt cskkenthet a
modellalkots bizonytalansga.
Gyakran tapasztalhat, hogy egyes genetikai krdsekben nemzetkzi hr
kutatk egymstl alapveten eltr nzeteket vallanak. Egyrtelm, hogy
ilyenkor a javasolt genetikai modellek valamelyike (esetleg mindkett) tves. Itt
csupn a t u d o m n y haladsban remnykedhetnk, ami elbb-utbb feloldja az
ellentmondst. Mindenesetre ez jelenleg a bizonytalansg tmakrnek leg
n e h e z e b b , legmegoldatlanabb pontja.
A modellek alapjn ksztett elrejelzsek bizonytalansga
Trbeli elrejelzsek bizonytalansga
A fldtani k u t a t s o k sorn a vizsgland k p z d m n y t csak n h n y

kivlasztott helyen (feltrsok, frsok, vgatok stb.) lehet kzvetlenl meg
ismerni, ugyanakkor termszetes hogy a kztk lev trrszeket is rtkelni
akarjuk. H a g y o m n y o s a n erre szolgl az ismert pontok krl az extrapolci, ill.
kt ismert p o n t kztt az interpolci. Ezek alapjn kszlnek a fldtani
szelvnyek, izovonalas trkpek s a hrom dimenzis trmodellek. M i n d e z
kzismert. Arrl azonban kevs sz esik, h o g y mekkora e z e k n e k a trbeli
elrejelzseknek a bizonytalansga.
E problma megoldshoz a matematikai megalapozst M A T H E R O N (1971)
elmleti munkssga szolgltatta. Felismerte hogy bizonyos tvolsgon bell -
amit hatstvolsgnak nevezett el - az egyes pontok tulajdonsgai ssze
fggenek egymssal, matematikai nyelven autokorrelltak. Kidolgozta tovbb a
variogram-szmts mdszert, amelynek segtsgvel a hatstvolsg s az
autokorrelci mrtke kiszmthat. (A variogram-szmts bizonytalansgrl
a korbbiakban mr szltunk). Krigels n v e n olyan szmtsi mdszert is
kidolgozott, m e l y n e k segtsgvel lineris egyenletrendszerek megoldsval a tr
brmely pontjra - termszetesen a hatstvolsgon bell - mennyisgi elre
jelzst lehet kszteni. Ez a mdszer a gyakorlatban (pl. bnyszat, hidrolgia)
fnyesen bevlt, ma mr szmos vltozata ismeretes. T m n k szempontjbl az
a legfontosabb, h o g y a krigels sorn a becsls hibjt is ki lehet szmtani
(kriging standard deviation), st a hiba trbeli eloszlst izovonalas trkpeken
brzolni is lehet.
A trbeli elrejelzsre n h n y determinisztikus mdszert is kidolgoztak. Ilyen
pldul a tvolsg-inverz slyozott tlagols. A m a g u n k rszrl n e m ltjuk
h e l y e s n e k e m d s z e r e k fldtudomnyi alkalmazst, mert elmletileg kialaktott
ltalnostott modellekkel dolgoznak s n e m veszik figyelembe a vizsgland
fldtani k p z d m n y specilis helyi adottsgait.
Idbeli elrejelzsek
A fldtani folyamatok m e g r t s h e z nlklzhetetlen az idbeli vltozsok

megismerse. Egyrszt vissza kell tekintennk a fldtrtneti mltba, msrszt
elrejelzseket kell adni a jv tekintetben. Ilyen krdsek a klmavltozsok, a
felszni s felsznalatti v z r a m l s o k vltozsai, a v u l k n i k i t r s e k s a
fldrengsek, valamint a fldcsuszamlsok elrejelzse. Tudomnyos
j e l e n t s g k mellett elsrend gyakorlati fontossgak is. Sajnos e tekintetben
k l n s e n n a g y a bizonytalansg. A fldtudomny egyik alapvet feladata a
fldtrtneti mlt megismerse. Tisztn matematikai s z e m p o n t b l ilyenkor
negatv eljel elrejelzsrl v a n sz. Az utbbi vtizedekben tbb ilyen negatv
elrejelzsi m d s z e r alakult ki, pl. a k o n t i n e n s r e k o n s t r u k c i k e g y adott
idszakra, a kontinenslemezek m o z g s n a k rekonstrukcija, valamint kln
bz paleoklmajelz diagramok - hmrskletre, leveg sszettelre stb. Ezek
m e g a l k o t s a k o r a szerzk legfeljebb kvalitatve j e l e z t k a b i z o n y t a l a n s g
m r t k t (kicsiny, kzepes, nagy), de jabban mr konfidencia intervallumokkal
is tallkozhatunk (TOTMAN & PARRISH 1998). A fldtrtneti kutatsok
bizonytalansgnak tovbbi fontos eleme az, h o g y m e d d i g alkalmazhat az
aktualizmus elve. E n n e k idbeli tvolsga a vizsglt jelensgtl fggen igen
eltr lehet. E bizonytalansg cskkentse kizrlag f l d t u d o m n y i m d
szerekkel kpzelhet el. M i n d e z e n folyamatok s j e l e n s g e k bizonytalansgnak
rszletes megvitatsa messze m e g h a l a d n t a n u l m n y u n k kereteit. Egyedl
M E S K akadmikusnak a fldrengsek elrejelzsre vonatkoz munkit
kvnjuk itt megemlteni ( 1 9 9 6 ) .
Az sszetett elrejelzsek bizonytalansga
E l s s o r b a n az a l k a l m a z o t t f l d t u d o m n y b a n van szksg sszetett

elrejelzsekre, ahol a trbeli s az idbeli elrejelzs mellett m g mszaki s
gazdasgi szempontokat is figyelembe kell venni. Ilyenek a nyersanyagkutatsi
s bnyaberuhzsi programok, a krnyezeti hatstanulmnyok, valamint a
toxikus s a radioaktv hulladktrolk n. biztonsgi elemzsei. M i n d e z e k a
feladatok olyan sszetettek, h o g y a fldtudomny szakemberei mellett kolgiai,
g a z d a s g i s p n z g y i s z a k e m b e r e k e g y t t m k d s t is ignylik. Tanul
m n y u n k keretei n e m engedik m e g , h o g y e feladatokkal e g y e n k n t foglal
kozzunk. Bsges nemzetkzi szakirodalmuk van. E n n e k ellenre a bizony
talansgok problmjval viszonylag keveset foglalkoztak, a m i n e k egyik f okt
abban ltjuk, h o g y a korbbiakban felsorolt j matematikai mdszereket eddig
n e m vettk ignybe.
A felsorolt feladatok sajtos megkzeltsei a szcenri s az rzkenysg
elemzs, valamint a kockzat elemzs. Sajnos m g napjainkban is gyakran
sszekeverik a bizonytalansg, a kockzat s a vletlen e s e m n y e k fogalmait,
ezrt rviden ezekkel is foglalkozunk.
A kockzat, a bizonytalansg s a vletlen sszefggsei
Fleg a biztost trsasgok s a b a n k o k jvoltbl a kockzat t m a k r n e k

rgta szleskr nemzetkzi szakirodalma van. Az alkalmazott fldtanban is
r e n d s z e r e s e n foglalkoznak kockzat elemzssel. A M a g y a r T u d o m n y

1 9 9 9 / 1 . s z m b a n 1 1 cikk jelent m e g a kockzat tmakrrl. Kzlk M L Y U S Z s
T U S N D I cikke matematikai oldalrl kzelti m e g a kockzat fogalmt. Szerintk a
kockzat fogalmt hrom tnyez egyttese hatrozza m e g :
- Egy szemly, vagy csoport cselekedethez ill. dntshez kapcsoldik.
- Az illetre kedveztlen, kros kimenetele (kvetkezmnye) van.
- A tervezettl eltr, elre n e m lthat, vletlen jelleg fordulat rvn
kvetkezik be.
A kockzat teht a n n a k a lehetsge, hogy egy cselekedetnk ill. dntsnk
elre n e m lthat m d o n kedveztlen kimenetel lesz.
Maga a kockzat teht n e m szmszersthet fogalom. Szmszersthet
viszont a kockzat valsznsge s a kockzat k v e t k e z m n y n e k nagysga pl.
anyagi vesztesg nagysga, szemlyi srlsek ill. elhallozsok szma.
Egy jelensg vletlen jelleg ha kimenetele n e m hatrozhat m e g egyr
telmen. Ismeretes, h o g y a vletlen jelleg n. t m e g j e l e n s g e k trvny
szersgeit kutatja a valsznsgelmlet ( R E I M A N N & T T H 1 9 8 5 ) .
H o g y a n fgg ssze teht a kockzat, a bizonytalansg, a hiba s a vletlen
esemny?
Pldaknt v e g y n k egy szilrd svnyi nyersanyagtelepet, amelynek svny
vagyont h a g y o m n y o s mdszerekkel szmtottuk ki. Az ismert elmleti okok
miatt ilyenkor az svnyvagyon bizonytalansgt n e m lehet szmszersteni. A
tervezett bnyszati beruhzs kockzatnak nagysgt s valsznsgt sem
i s m e r j k ilyenkor. A m e n n y i b e n az s v n y v a g y o n t k o r s z e r m a t e m a t i k a i
mdszerek segtsgvel szmtjuk ki, g y a becslt svnyvagyon mennyisgi s
minsgi hibahatrai is ismertekk vlnak Ezek ismeretben kiszmthat a
bnyszati beruhzs kockzatnak valsznsge s a kockzat nagysga. A
beruhz eldntheti, h o g y vllalja-e ezeket, vagy kiegszt kutatst vgeztet.
P l d k a fuzzy m d s z e r alkalmazsra
Kvantitatv svnytani fzisanalzis
A kvantitatv svnytani fzisanalzis mindmig sok bizonytalansggal terhelt

s bonyolult feladat. Metodikai okbl kln-kln tekintjk t a termikus s a
rntgendiffraktomteres mdszert. A gyakorlatban a kt mdszer kzismerten
egymst kiegszt s erst eredmnyeket szolgltat.
Termikus mdszer.
A MFI-ban vtizedek ta m k d termikus laboratriumban szmtgppel

vezrelt M O M derivatogrffal nyert eredmnyeket tanulmnyoztunk, melyet dr.
F L D V R I Mria tett szmunkra lehetv. Ezttal m o n d u n k hls ksznetet
nzetlen segtsgrt.
A vizsglati e r e d m n y e k bizonytalansga kt tnyez egyttesbl addik:
A mszer s a mrs bizonytalansga. Ide tartozik a mrsi paramterek
l e o l v a s h a t s g n a k korltozottsga, a T G grbe kis m r t k alapvonal
eltoldsa, a kirtkel szmtgpes szoftver vltoztatsai, a kirtkel p o n t o k

s z m n a k ( 1 0 0 0 ill. 900) s h e l y n e k m e g v l t o z s a . M i n d e z e k a m i n t a
sszetteltl fggetlen visszatr hibk.
A m i n t a sszettelbl fakad bizonytalansg. Ez adja a vizsglati e r e d m n y
bizonytalansgnak nagyobb rszt s mintrl mintra eltr nagysg. g y
m i n l n a g y o b b a mintban a vizsglt svny slyvesztesget okoz kmiai
alkotjnak h n y a d a , annl pontosabb a meghatrozs, m e r t annl kisebb az
svnytani szorzfaktor. Gyakran rszben, v a g y egszben tfedik e g y m s t a
vizsglt s v n y o k e n d o t e r m cscsai. Ezeket a T G grbe els ill. m s o d i k
derivltjval lehet tbb-kevsb sikeresen elvlasztani. Tovbbi bizonytalansg
forrsa, h a kt szomszdos endoterm cscs kztt a plat n e m ri el az
alapvonalat. Ilyenkor n e m vlaszthat el egyrtelmen a kt s v n y h o z tartoz
slyvesztesg. A legnagyobb bizonytalansgot az elemhelyettestsre hajlamos
svnycsoportok, pl. kloritok, szmektitek, muszkovit-illit sor stb. jelenlte okozza.
E z e k e n bell az egyes svnyok pontos diagnzisa tbbnyire n e m rhet el.
Ilyenkor a fzisanalzis alapjt kpez sztchiometriai sszettel sem hatrozhat
m e g teljes pontossggal, mert a vals sszettel eltrhet az elmletitl. M i n d e z e k
miatt a m d s z e r hivatalosan deklarlt hibja 1 0 % , az e g y e s svnyok
k i m u t a t h a t s g n a k hatra pedig 1-5% kztt mozog.
Az elmlt v e k sorn a termikus laboratriumban a ks-perm kor Bodai
Aleurolit Formci kzetmintibl tbb mint 100 kvantitatv fzisanalzis kszlt.
Ezek k z l vlasztottunk ki 30 mintt, tovbb e g y a szci nyireskti bauxit
telepbl szrmaz bauxitmintt a fuzzy mdszerrel trtn kirtkelsre.
A 2. brn lthat e g y albitfszkes agyagk h a g y o m n y o s (crisp) s fuzzy
szmokkal trtnt rtkelse. Jl ltszik, h o g y a minta egyes svnyainak
m e g h a t r o z s a lnyegesen eltr hibval trtnt. A kalcit s a montmorillonit
e s e t b e n a fuzzy szm nullbl indul, ami azt jelenti, h o g y ez a k t svny
m e g h a t r o z s a annyira bizonytalan, h o g y esetleg h i n y o z h a t n a k is a mintbl. A
m i n t k fuzzy szmainak fuzzy statisztikai rtkelse lehetv tette a mrsi hibk
s a termszetes vltozkonysg megklnbztetst. A fuzzy s z m o k terlete
alapjn rtelmezett bizonytalansg sszefggseket mutat az svny-
paragenezissel.
Rntgendiffraktomteres mdszer
V i l g s z e r t e s z m o s m d s z e r t h a s z n l n a k a kvantitatv r n t g e n o g r f i a i
fzisanalzisre. Az ltalunk vizsglt m d s z e r t az MTA G e o k m i a i Kutat
Laboratriumban (GKL) dolgoztk ki a h e t v e n e s vekben. Ez a m d s z e r mind
az adott s v n y o k relis szerkezett, mind a minta vegyi sszettelt figyelembe
veszi. Az elmlt v e k b e n a Bodai Aleurolit Formci kzeteibl, a fed s fek
kzetekbl vett kzel 100 mintn vgeztek a GKL-ben kvantitatv rntgenogrfiai
fzisanalzist R K A I Pter akadmikus vezetsvel. Vele n z t k t a vizsglati
e r e d m n y e k e t s ksztettk el 36 k z e t m i n t a tagsgfggvnyeit. rtkes
segtsgrt e h e l y e n fejezzk ki hls ksznetnket. A vizsglati e r e d m n y e k
1 0 % hibahatr kztt mozognak. Az egyes svnyok kimutathatsgnak
hatra 0,5-tl 5%-ig terjed. A mrsi hibk e mdszernl h r o m tnyezbl
fakadnak:
HAGYOMNYOS KIRTKELS
2. bra. Drivatogrfos vizsglattal meghatrozott svnyos sszettel brzolsa hagyomnyos

(crisp) s fuzzy szmokkal. Albitfszkes agyagk minta a ks-perm kor Bodai Aleurolit
Formcibl. BAT-10 frs 85,7 mterbl
Fig. 2 Mineral composition obtained by derivatograph study. Above crisp numbers, below fuzzy numbers. Albitic
claystone from the Upper Permian Boda Siltstone Formation. Borehole Number BAT-10, 85.7 m depth
1. A m s z e r s a mrs bizonytalansga. Ide tartoznak tbbek kztt a rntgen

sugrzs intenzitsnak ingadozsbl, a regisztrcibl, a kitntetett orien
tcibl s a mintaelksztsbl szrmaz bizonytalansgok.
2. A rntgenfluoreszcencis mdszerrel kszlt v e g y e l e m z s e k hibi. Ezen
bell kiemelt szerepe van a mintaelksztsnek (gyngy, vagy prselt por
p r e p a r t u m hasznlata).
3. A minta svnyos sszettelbl fakad bizonytalansg. Ez adhatja a
vizsglati e r e d m n y bizonytalansgnak nagyobb rszt. A fenti m d s z e r ezrt
olyan faktorokat hasznl, melyeket az adott kzet rntgendiffraktomteres
vizsglata sorn fokozatos itercival alaktottak ki. Ezekkel a faktorokkal
szorozzk m e g a mrtkad rntgenreflexik rtkt. Az svnytani hiba gy sem
kszblhet ki teljesen, de rdemlegesen cskkenthet.
A tagsgfggvnyek megszerkesztse sorn az egyrtelmen meghatrozhat
s v n y o k fell haladtunk a bonyolultabb sszettelek fel. N a g y klnbsgeket
szleltnk az egyes svnyok meghatrozsnak bizonytalansga kztt. A
viszonylag kis m e n n y i s g klifldpt jelenlte a diffrakcis cscsok tfedse

miatt tbb esetben n e m volt egyrtelmen bizonythat. Ezt a bizonytalansgot a
fuzzy szm nullbl val indtsval fejeztk ki. A kirtkels sorn korrelcis
sszefggst szleltnk a fuzzy szmok s a klnbz kzettani tulajdonsgok
kztt.
A termikus s a rntgenogrfiai vizsglatok fuzzy rtkelsnek eredmnyeirl
a kzeljvben rszletesen beszmolunk egy kln cikk formjban.
A repedezett kzetek vzvezet kpessgnek in situ meghatrozsa
A hidrogeolgiai vizsglatok egyik fontos feladata a kzetek in situ vzvezet

kp es sg n ek terepi meghatrozsa. Ez ktvizsglattal lehetsges, amellyel
megllapthat a vizsglt szakasz transzmisszivitsa. A transzmisszivits azt
mutatja meg, h o g y a kt krl kialakul vzszintes radilis ramls esetn
egysgnyi tvolsgon, egysgnyi nyomsess hatsra, mekkora vzmennyisg
r a m l i k keresztl i d e g y s g alatt, a teltett rteg teljes vastagsgban.
2
Mrtkegysge SI rendszerben m /s.
Porzus k p z d m n y e k esetn a vzramls a rteg teljes vastagsgban
trtnik. Ilyenkor a kzet vzvezet kpessgt a szivrgsi tnyezvel szoktk
jellemezni, amely a transzmisszivits s a rtegvastagsg hnyadosa. Repedezett
kzetekben a vz fknt repedsrendszerek m e n t n ramlik. Ilyen kpzd
m n y e k b e n a ktvizsglat sorn meghatrozott transzmisszivits elssorban
attl fgg, hogy a vizsglt szakaszra h n y hidraulikailag aktv repeds esik, s
azoknak milyen a vzvezet kpessge. Ebben az esetben a szivrgsi tnyez
legfeljebb a tkletesen repedsmentes, de kzettel kapcsolatban rtelmezhet.
A teljes, repedezett kzettest vzvezet kpessgnek jellemzshez m e g kell
elgednnk azzal, h o g y nagyjbl azonos hosszsg vizsglati szakaszokon
m e g h a t r o z z u k a transzmisszivitst, majd megvizsgljuk, h o g y a transz
misszivits rtke h o g y a n vltozik a frsok m e n t n . F r l y u k a k egyes
szakaszainak elklntett vizsglathoz pakkeres ktvizsglatokat szoktak
alkalmazni.
A repedezett k z e t e k vzvezet k p e s s g t a nagyfok vltozkonysg
jellemzi: a transzmisszivits rtke m g kisebb trrszen bell is akr hat
nagysgrendet vltozhat. Emiatt klnsen fontos a reprezentatv mintavtel, a
megfelel m i n t a v t e l i r e n d s z e r kialaktsa. H a pldul csak egyetlen,
prhuzamos skokbl ll repedsrendszerrel van dolgunk, akkor k n n y e n
belthat, hogy a r e p e d s e k skjra merleges frsokkal jellemezhet leginkbb
a k p z d m n y e k vzvezet kpessge. H a viszont a frsok prhuzamosak a
repedsrendszer skjval, akkor - attl fggen, hogy a frs a repeds m e n t n
halad, vagy vgig d e kzetet harntol - a k p z d m n y e k vzvezet kpessgt
alaposan tl-, vagy alulbecslhetjk. A valsgban ltalban n e m egyetlen,
h a n e m vltozatos irnyultsg r e p e d s r e n d s z e r r e l van d o l g u n k , ezrt
clszernek tnhet a frsokat a tr hrom, egymsra klcsnsen merleges
irnyban lemlyteni. A korltozott kutatsi kltsgek miatt erre igen ritkn
nylik md. Ha n e m rendelkeznk elegend informcival a f vzvezet
HAGYOMNYOS KIRTKELS
3. bra Rntgendiffraktomteres vizsglattal nyert svnyos sszettel brzolsa hagyomnyos (crisp) s fuzzy szmokkal. Albitfszkes agyagk a ks-perm
kor Bodai Aleurolit Formcibl. BAT-4 frs 1169,2 mterbl
Fig. 3 Mineral composition obtained by X-ray dijfractometry. Albitic claystone from the Upper Permian Boda Siltstone Formation. Borehole BAT-4, 1169.2 m depth
r e p e d s r e n d s z e r e k irnyrl, a k k o r a b i z o n y t a l a n s g o t l e g i n k b b azzal
cskkenthetjk, ha ragaszkodunk a fggleges frsokhoz.
A n a g y m r t k vltozkonysg miatt k n n y e n elfordulhat, h o g y a frlyuk
e g s z e n rvid szakaszhoz igen magas vzvezet kpessg tartozik. Ezrt a
leghelyesebb, ha a frlyuk teljes hosszt szkennelsszeren vgigvizsgljuk,
e g y m s t a szleken kis mrtkben tfed, lehetleg egyforma hosszsg,
1 0 - 2 5 m-es vizsglati szakaszokkal.
A repedsrendszerek tbbfle orientcija s sszekapcsoldottsga miatt
ltalban n e m tudjuk, hogy mekkora a mrs hattvolsga, azaz h o g y az adott
v z v e z e t k p e s s g m i l y e n i r n y b a n m i l y e n tvolsgra t e r j e s z t h e t ki.
Rendszerint m g nagy frssrsg esetn sem lehet a vzvezet kpessget az
egyes frsok kztt korrellni. Ez annl is inkbb gy van, mivel a vzvezet
k p e s s g m g e g y e t l e n k o n k r t r e p e d s skja m e n t n is akr h r o m
n a g y s g r e n d e t vltozhat, a r e p e d s szlessgnek, ill. a r e p e d s k i t l t s e k
llapotnak fggvnyben. Ezrt a frsok szmt, vagyis a vizsglt szakaszok
sszhosszt csak olyan mrtkig clszer nvelni, h o g y a transzmisszivitsok
eloszlst megfelelen tudjuk jellemezni. A frsok kztti interpolcihoz
ltalban a tektonikai s geofizikai vizsglatok e r e d m n y t is figyelembe kell
v e n n i , illetve valamely frs ktvizsglatval egyidejleg a kzelben lv tbbi
frsban is szlelseket kell vgezni (egymsrahats-vizsglat).
A k t v i z s g l a t o k sorn valamilyen j l kontrolllhat m d o n - pldul
szivattyzssal (termeltetssel) v a g y vzbesajtolssal (nyeletssel), illetve a
termeltets v a g y nyelets megszntetsvel - hatst gyakorolunk a vztroz
k p z d m n y e k r e . Az erre a szablyozott jelre kapott vlasz (nyomsvltozs,
v z h o z a m v l t o z s ) alapjn k v e t k e z t e t h e t n k a k p z d m n y e k v z v e z e t
k p e s s g r e . A j e l a d s szablyozsi m d j a alapjn tbbfle ktvizsglati
m d s z e r t klnbztethetnk meg. Pldul az lland h o z a m tesztek sorn a
termelt vagy besajtolt vzhozamot a kt szjnl lland rtken tartjuk, s a
vizsglt szakaszban mrjk a nyomsvltozst.
Az lland h o z a m teszt bizonytalansgnak egyik forrsa, h o g y mennyire
tudjuk a vzhozamot lland szinten tartani. Alacsony vzvezet kpessgek
esetn m g viszonylag kisebb vzhozam-ingadozsok is m e g n e h e z t h e t i k a teszt
k i r t k e l s t . E b i z o n y t a l a n s g c s k k e n t s n e k az a l e g j o b b m d j a , ha
h u z a m o s a b b idej vztermels vagy nyelets utn a kutat hirtelen lezrjuk, azaz
a v z h o z a m o t zrusra vltoztatjuk, s mrjk a vizsglati szakaszon a nyoms
felfutst, ill. cskkenst.
Az l l a n d h o z a m tesztek b i z o n y t a l a n s g n a k e g y m s i k forrsa a
n y o m s m r s pontossga. M a mr igen nagy rzkenysg, kzvetlenl a
vizsglati szakaszba t e l e p t h e t n y o m s s z o n d k llnak r e n d e l k e z s r e . Az
a l a c s o n y v z v e z e t k p e s s g r e p e d e z e t t kristlyos k z e t e k , v u l k n i t o k ,
aleuritok vizsglathoz szksg van ilyen pontos s kltsges mszerekre, a
porzus k p z d m n y e k tbbsge esetben azonban kisebb rzkenysg
n y o m s m r k is megfelelnek, st, nyitott kutakban szmos esetben elegend a
megfelel srsg vzszintmrs.
A ktvizsglat sorn mrt nyomsadatokbl n e m lehet kzvetlenl meg
h a t r o z n i a k p z d m n y e k transzmisszivitst. Az szlelt adatok ugyanis csak
azt mutatjk meg, hogy az adott jelre milyen vlaszt k a p t u n k , de a vzramls

valdi geometrijt n e m ismerjk. A feladatot indirekt m d o n lehet megoldani:
megvizsgljuk, h o g y az adott szablyozott jelre milyen vlaszt k a p t u n k volna
klnfle (idealizlt) ramlsi modellek esetn, s ezek kzl vlasztjuk ki a
t n y l e g e s e n m r t a d a t o k h o z l e g i n k b b illeszked m o d e l l t . A l e g n a g y o b b
bizonytalansgot az jelenti, h o g y a feladatnak szmos m e g o l d s a lehet, vagyis
tbbfle ramlsi m o d e l l is ltezik, a m e l y e k k e l a m r t a d a t o k illesztse
e g y f o r m n jl m e g o l d h a t . Az ramlsi m o d e l l e k k z l a vlaszts n e m
egyszer, e h h e z fel kell h a s z n l n u n k a rendelkezsre ll e g y b fldtani
adatokat is. A lehetsges varicik kzl ltalban azt a legegyszerbb modellt
szoks vlasztani. A ktvizsglat m d s z e r n e k krltekint megvlasztsval
j e l e n t s e n c s k k e n t h e t a teszt k i r t k e l s n e k b i z o n y t a l a n s g a , de - a
modellvlaszts priori jellege miatt - e bizonytalansg s e m m i k p p e n sem
kszblhet ki teljesen.
Az ramlsi modell kivlasztst az n. diagnosztikai grbe alapjn, korszer
szmtgpes programok (pl. Interpret/2) segtsgvel v g e z h e t j k el. A ketts
l o g a r i t m i k u s l p t k b e n m e g s z e r k e s z t e t t diagnosztikai g r b n az szlelt
n y o m s v l t o z s t b r z o l j u k a m r s i id f g g v n y b e n . K l n s e n a
nyomsvltozs derivltjnak alakja, egyes szakaszainak m e r e d e k s g e segti a
m e g f e l e l ramlsi m o d e l l kivlasztst. A n y o m s v l t o z s derivltjnak
vzszintes stabilizcis szakasza arra utal, h o g y a kt krl radilis ramls
alakult ki. A transzmisszivits e stabilizcis szakasz helyzete alapjn hatrozhat
m e g (4. bra).
Az ramlsi modell kivlasztsa utn az elmleti modell hidrodinamikai
tulajdonsgait gy vltoztatjuk, h o g y az adott jelre kapott szimullt vlasz minl
tkletesebben illeszkedjen a t n y l e g e s e n m r t r t k e k h e z . Az illeszkeds
tkletestst szmtgpes programok segtik, amelyek klnfle regresszis
algoritmusokat hasznlnak. Hiba t u d u n k azonban ltszlag igen j illeszkedst
elrni, e r e d m n y n k bizonytalansgt nveli, h o g y az elmleti modell szmos
fontos b e m e n e t i paramtert (pl. kzetporozits, teljes sszenyomhatsg) csak
becslssel tudjuk megadni. Azt, h o g y az egyes b e m e n e t i p a r a m t e r e k milyen
m r t k b e n befolysoljk az e l m l e t i ramlsi m o d e l l hidrodinamikai
tulajdonsgait, n. rzkenysg-vizsglatokkal lehet megllaptani.
A transzmisszivits meghatrozsban a kvetkez lps, h o g y a vizsglt
k p z d m n y e k hidrodinamikai tulajdonsgait a z o n o s n a k ttelezzk fel az
optimalizlt elmleti modellvel.
Repedezett kzetek esetben a transzmisszivits meghatrozsban az okozza
a legnagyobb bizonytalansgot, h o g y a diagnosztikai grbn sokszor hinyzik a
jl felismerhet vzszintes stabilizcis szakasz. E n n e k az az oka, h o g y repedezett
k z e t e k b e n szmos esetben valban n e m alakul ki a kt krl radilis ramls.
Ebben az esetben tulajdonkppen a transzmisszivits eredeti fogalma is rtelmt
veszti. L t e z n e k ugyan modellek, a m e l y e k n e m c s a k a ktdimenzis radilis
r a m l s t tudjk k e z e l n i , h a n e m az e g y d i m e n z i s lineris ramlstl a
h r o m d i m e n z i s szferikus ramlsig m i n d e n ramlsi geometria vizsglatra
kpesek. Ezek az n. trtdimenzis ramlsi modellek az ramls geometrijt
v l t o z p a r a m t e r k n t kezelik, a m e l y n e k r t k t az e l m l e t i m o d e l l
i.bra Ketts logaritmikus sklj diagnosztikai grbe
Fig. 4. Diagnostical diagram on double-logaritmic scale

illeszkedsnek optimalizlsa sorn lehet meghatrozni. Sajnos a trt ramlsi

d i m e n z i alapjn meghatrozott transzmisszivits n e h e z e n pthet be a
h a g y o m n y o s hidrogeolgiai modellekbe, s az eltr ramlsi dimenzik
alkalmazsval kirtkelt vizsglati szakaszok sszehasonltsa is krlmnyes.
Ezrt b e kell r n n k azzal, h o g y a r e p e d e z e t t k p z d m n y e k vzvezet
k p e s s g t e g y olyan paramterrel j e l l e m e z z k , a m e l y n e k p o n t o s fizikai
tartalmval n e m vagyunk tisztban. Termszetesen ez is tovbbi bizonytalansg
forrsa.
A ktvizsglat mdszernek helyes megvlasztsval s a vizsglat idtar
t a m n a k n v e l s v e l m r s k e l h e t az ramlsi g e o m e t r i a m e g h a t r o z a t
lansgbl ered bizonytalansg. Egy msik megolds, h o g y ugyanazon a
vizsglati szakaszon tbbfle tesztet v g z n k (pl. lland h o z a m tesztek
klnbz v z h o z a m o k alkalmazsval, slug-tesztek stb.). Az egyes vizsglati
mdszereket eltr mrtkben s m d o n befolysolja az ramlsi geometria
bizonytalansga. A tesztek diagnosztikai grbinek sszehasonlt kirtkelse
alapjn ez a bizonytalansg szmszersthet - a transzmisszivits fl egy
n a g y s g r e n d p o n t o s s g g a l m e g h a t r o z h a t . Az 5. brn a ketts nyl a
transzmisszivits lehetsges legkisebb s legnagyobb rtke ltal kzrefogott
tartomnyt jelzi. A lehetsges legkisebb, legnagyobb, valamint a legvalsznbb
rtkek alapjn a transzmisszivits kifejezhet fuzzy szm formjban.
A 6. brn a Bodai Aleurit Formci vizsglatra mlytett D e l t a - 6 frs
tesztjeinek feldolgozst mutatjuk be. Lthat, hogy a magasabb vzvezet
kpessg szakaszokon a transzmisszivits meghatrozsnak bizonytalansga
rendszerint kisebb. A repedezett kzetekre igen jellemz m d o n az egymssal
szomszdos vizsglati szakaszok vzvezet kpessge olykor 2 - 3 nagysgrenddel
is klnbzik. A tagsgfggvnyek megszerkesztsnek k s z n h e t e n - az
e g y e s t e s z t e k k i r t k e l s n e k n a g y f o k b i z o n y t a l a n s g a e l l e n r e - jl
felismerhetk a vzvezet kpessg vltozsnak ltalnos trvnyszersgei a
frlyuk m e n t n .
A szilrd svnyvagyonbecsls
H a z n k b a n jelenleg az svnyvagyon becslst az rvnyes bnyatrvny

alapjn a M a g y a r Geolgiai Szolglat szablyozza, de ezen bell rszletes
mdszertani elrsok nincsenek. Az orszgban alkalmazott mdszerek fld-
tanilag helyesek, ugyanakkor hromfle szmtsi hiba elkvetsre nyjtanak
lehetsget:
1. Tbbnyire n e m trtnik m e g a hatstvolsgok kiszmtsa.
2. Tbbnyire n e m v g e z n e k normalits vizsglatokat a f paramter-tlagok
kiszmtsa eltt. Ugyanakkor gyakorlati tapasztalataink szerint igen gyakoriak
az ersen aszimmetrikus eloszlsok.
3. Amikor a kapott tlagokat a telep egszre terjesztik ki, a pontbecslsrl
intervallumbecslsre kell ttrni. Ez jelenleg sehol sem trtnik meg.
N y o m a t k o s a n hangslyozni kell, h o g y a matematikai szmtsok alkalmazsa
sorn szigoran be kell tartani a matematika trvnyeit! E z e k mellzse slyos
szmtsi hibkhoz vezet.
5. bra A bizonytalansgi tartomny meghatrozsa
Fig. 5 Determination of the field uncertainty

6. bra A Delta-6 frs tesztjeinek fuzzy tagsgi fggvnyei
Fig. 6 Fuzzy membership functions of the tests performed in the Delta-6 borehole
Ismeretes, hogy a hagyomnyos mdszerek nem adnak lehetsget a

hibahatrok kiszmtsra. Az r v n y b e n lev ismeretessgi kategrik (A, B , C l ,
C2) ezt n e m is rjk el. U g y a n a k k o r a piacgazdasg felttelei kztt m i n d e n
bnyszati b e r u h z elemi rdeke a n n a k az ismerete, h o g y a kiszmtott
svnyvagyon m e k k o r a hibahatrok kztt helyezkedik el. E nlkl a bnyszati
beruhzs kockzata sem rtkelhet. V l e m n y n k szerint ez a feladat a fuzzy
m d s z e r alkalmazsval megoldhat. Pldaknt a Bakonyi Bauxitbnya Kft.
hozzjrulsval a Halimbai bauxittelep Hal.II/DNY bnyamezjt vlasztottuk
ki. Ez e g y nll, jl krlhatrolt rctest a telepen bell s gy alkalmas a
szmtsok elvgzsre.
Els l p s k n t variogramok megszerkesztsvel kiszmtottuk a f para
m t e r e k hatstvolsgait, majd a frsok kr a hatstvolsgnak megfelel
krket h z v a megllaptottuk, h o g y az rctest terletn nincs a hatstvolsgon
kvl es terletrsz. Ezutn hozz lehetett fogni a h r o m tagsgfggvny
megszerkesztshez:
BRDOSSY Gy. et al.: A bizonytalansg rtkelse a fldtudomnyokban 317
Az rdest alapterletnek meghatrozsa. Elszr a tbb vtizedes bnyszati

tapasztalat alapjn kialaktott teleptani m o d e l l n e k megfelelen a fldtanilag
leginkbb valsznsthet telepkrvonalat szerkesztettk meg, az rvnyes
szmbavteli hatr, teht 2,0 mter minimlis bauxitvastagsg figyelembe
vtelvel. Ezutn kerlt sor a lehetsges legkisebb alapterlet kijellsre. Ekkor
a hatr kzvetlenl a szls produktv frsokon kvl fut (7. bra).
A lehetsges legnagyobb alapterlet pedig egszen az rctesthez legkzelebb
es - n e m produktv frsokig terjed. Megjegyezzk, h o g y a tbb vtizedes
halimbai bauxitbnyszat sorn tbbszr is tallkoztunk olyan esetekkel, amikor
az ipari bauxit kzvetlenl a szls n e m produktv frsig terjedt. A tagsg
fggvny m i n i m u m s maximum rtkt ebben az esetben az adja, h o g y m i n d e n
rintett frsnl ezt a szlssges lehetsget rvnyestettk. Az gy kapott
h r o m alapterletet a nagyobb pontossg rdekben szmtgppel szmoltuk
ki. Egy olyan hromszg alak fuzzy szmot vettnk fel teht, a m e l y n e k alapjt
a legkisebb s a legnagyobb alapterlet adja, cscsa p e d i g a teleptanilag
valsznstett rtk (8/A bra).
Az tlagos telepvastagsg meghatrozsa. Els lpsben a h a g y o m n y o s m d o n
szmtottuk ki az tlagvastagsgot normlis eloszlst felttelezve (7,9 mter). A
ferdesg s a relatv ferdesg rtkei azonban az eloszls nagyfok aszim
metrijt jeleztk. Ezt az elvgzett normalitsvizsglat is megerstette. Ezrt az
SPSS statisztikai programcsomag segtsgvel robusztus tlagokat (M-tlag-
becslket) szmoltunk ki:
Huber-fle tlagbecsl 6,6 mter
Hampel-fle tlagbecsl 6,4 "
Tukey-fle tlagbecsl 5,9 "
Andrew-fle tlagbecsl 5,9
A felsoroltak kzl a nemzetkzi szakirodalomban leginkbb elfogadott Tukey-
fle tlagbecslt vettk figyelembe. E n n e k az tlagnak a standard hibja kpezi
a fuzzy szm magjt (1 tagsgrtk intervallumt), tartjt pedig a 95%-os
konfidencia szinten szmtott konfidencia intervallum adja. A 8/B brn a hagyo
m n y o s tlagot is feltntettk. Jl ltszik, h o g y ez a szm a fuzzy szmnl
n a g y o b b , teht felfel torztott.
Az tlagos trfogatsrsg meghatrozsa. A trfogatsrsget a m k d
halimbai bnya tbb pontjn 1,0x1,0x0,5 m trfogat bauxitidom slynak
m e g m r s v e l hatroztk meg. A Hal.II/DNY rctest mg nincs bnyszatilag
feltrva, ezrt ezt a reprezentatv mret vizsglatot n e m lehetett alkalmazni. E
3
helyett laboratriumban 35 db 1-3 c m trfogat minta trfogatsrsgt mrtk
meg. E m i n t k sajnos kis trfogatuk miatt nem tekinthetk reprezentatvoknak.
Ezrt a kell mintaszm ellenre 1 0 % hibahatrt kellett felvennnk. A mrsek
3
hibaeloszlst normlisnak felttelezve a 2,29 t / m tlagos trfogatsly kt olda
ln 1 0 - 1 0 % hibval szmoltuk ki a fuzzy szm magjt. A tart ennl n e m sokkal
szlesebb s a 95%-on felvett konfidencia intervallumnak felel m e g (8/C bra).
Kzismert, h o g y az svnyvagyon mennyisgt az alapterlet, az tlagos
vastagsg s az tlagos trfogatsrsg szorzata adja meg. Ezt a szorzst a fuzzy
aritmetika szablyai szerint a fenti hrom fuzzy szmra is elvgeztk s a 8/D
brn lthat fuzzy szorzatot kaptuk. Ez a szm a kvetkez informcikat

nyjtja:
M g a legkedveztlenebb k r l m n y e k egybeesse esetn sem lehet a fldtani
vagyon 360 000 tonnnl kevesebb s a legkedvezbb esetben sem lehet 2 360 000
tonnnl tbb.
A jelenlegi megkutatottsg mellett 720 000 s 1 240 000 tonna kztt ttelezhet
fel a fldtani vagyon, de ennl pontosabban n e m hatrozhat m e g a vagyon
7. bra A Halimba II/DNY bauxit rctest lehetsges legkisebb s legnagyobb alapterlete
Fig. 7 The smallest and the largest possible extent of the Halimba 11/SW bauxite ore body
Bakonyi Bauxitbnya Kft. hivatalos vagyonszmtsa
8. bra A Halimba II/DNY bauxit rctest fldtani vagyonnak kiszmtshoz felvett fuzzy szmok A: alapterlet, B: tlagos bauxitvastagsg, C: tlagos bauxit
trfogatsrsg, D: fldtani vagyon. Fggleges vonal: a hagyomnyos vagyonszmts eredmnyei
Fig. 8 Fuzzy numbers applied to the bauxite ore reserve estimation of the Halimba WSWore body A extent, average bauxite thickness, average bulk density, Dore tonnage.
The vertical lines represent the results of the traditional ore reserve estimation
m e n y n y i s g e . A h a g y o m n y o s ton kapott 1 2 9 7 0 0 0 tonna ennl valamivel tbb,

v l e m n y n k szerint tlzott szm, aminek oka a helytelen vastagsgszmts.
A fentiekkel azonos m d o n trtnt a v a g y o n m i n s g n e k meghatrozsa,
amit helyszke miatt itt n e m mutatunk b e . Ugyanilyen m d o n , a tervezett
termelsi vesztesg s termelsi hguls figyelembe vtelvel a kitermelhet
vagyon is kiszmthat fuzzy szm formjban. E k t tnyez hibi term
szetesen m e g n v e l i k a vagyon sszestett hibjt. A m d s z e r az ipari vagyonra is
kiterjeszthet az ott szmtsba vett mszaki s gazdasgi p a r a m t e r e k ill. azok
tervezett hibinak figyelembevtelvel. A v g e r e d m n y is fuzzy szm, amely
m i n d e z e k e t a hibkat sszestett formban tartalmazza. A m d s z e r n a g y elnye,
h o g y szmtsai viszonylag egyszerek s szmtgppel k n n y e n s gyorsan
elvgezhetk. A legfontosabb az, h o g y a fldtani vagyon kiszmtsakor az adott
telep fldtani sajtsgait kell a lehet legmesszebb m e n e n figyelembe venni.
Erre a fuzzy elmlet lehetsget nyjt.
M i n d e z e k alapjn a beruhz az eddigieknl jval tbb informcit kap arra
n z v e , h o g y m e k k o r a kockzattal j r beruhzsi dntse. A m e n n y i b e n a koc
kzatot tlsgosan n a g y n a k tartja, g y kiegszt kutatst hatrozhat el. A z
jdonsg ebben a z esetben az, h o g y m i n d e n egyes frs elkszlte utn a fuzzy
mdszerrel igen gyorsan kiszmthat, hogy m i k n t mdosult a vagyon, de
fknt a n n a k bizonytalansga. gy csak a valban szksges kiegszt kutatsra
kerl sor, felesleges tbbletkutats elkerlhet.
M e g j e g y e z z k , h o g y a fldtanilag ismert terletek r e m n y b e l i s v n y -
v a g y o n n a k feldertsre az utbbi vekben tbb, a valsznsgelmlet alapjn
ll mdszert dolgoztak ki. Ilyen a slyozott bizonytkok (weights of evidence),
v a l a m i n t a s l y o z o t t logisztikus regresszi ( w e i g h t e d logistic r e g r e s s i o n )
m d s z e r e ( A G T E R B E R G et al. 1 9 9 3 ) , tovbb a valsznsgi neurlis hlzatok
(probabilistic n e u r a l n e t w o r k s ) m d s z e r e ( S I N G E R & K O U D A 1 9 9 7 , 1 9 9 9 ) .
Kvetkeztetsek
J a v a s o l j u k , h o g y a j v b e n m i n d a t u d o m n y o s , m i n d a z alkalmazott
fldtudomnyi kutatsoknak legyen szerves rsze a bizonytalansg vizsglata,
szmszerstse ill. a hibahatrok cskkentse
M i n l t b b s z a k t e r l e t e n ki k e l l e n e p r b l n i a t a n u l m n y b a n emltett
mdszereket, elssorban a fuzzy elmlet mdszereit
M e g k l n b z t e t e t t fontossgot tulajdontunk az svnyvagyon becslsek s a
biztonsgi e l e m z s e k korszerstsnek, hibahatraik m e g h a t r o z s n a k
A bizonytalansg cskkentsnek ltalunk javasolt mdja interdiszciplinris
e g y t t m k d s t kvn a fldtudomny, a matematika s a szmtstechnika
szakemberei kztt
Javasoljuk, h o g y az egyetemi oktatsban is kapjon szerepet a bizonytalansg,
valamint a hibahatrok kiszmtsa
Ksznetnyilvnts
Hls k s z n e t e t m o n d u n k F A Z E K A S Jnosnak, a B a k o n y i B a u x i t b n y a Kft.

Vezrigazgatjnak, h o g y e n g e d l y e z t e s tmogatta a halimbai bauxittelepen
v g z e t t s v n y v a g y o n becslst. K s z n e t n k e t fejezzk ki tovbb dr. PATAKI
Attila fgeolgusnak, R. S Z A B Istvn s V A R G A Gusztv geolgusoknak az
s v n y v a g y o n b e c s l s h e z nyjtott rtkes segtsgkrt.
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Hrek, ismertetsek
Helyreigazts
A Fldtani K z l n y 130/1. szmban - szerkesztsi hiba folytn - kizrlag

B L D I Tams neve alatt jelent m e g "Az " O n c h o p h o r s ( = Rhezakis) rtegek" j
felszni elfordulsa Beklce s Borsodndasd vidkn" cm rvid kzlemny. A
cikk s z e r z i h e l y e s e n : B L D I Tams s L E L - O S S Y S z a b o l c s .
A tvedsrt a szerztrs szves elnzst krem.
PIROS Olga
technikai szerkeszt
Kiegszts a 130/1. szmban megjelent "Az elmlt kt vben

minstettek listj"-hoz
1998: THAMN BOZS Edit: Magyarorszgi kainozoos homokok s

h o m o k k v e k s v n y i sszettele fldtani rtkelsnek eredmnyei. A
fldtudomny kandidtusa
1999: F L E Lszl: Vztartk trinformatikai adatbzison alapul srlkeny-

sgi vizsglata Balatonfzf trsgben. A fldtudomny kandidtusa
1999: K O V C S - P L F F Y Pter: Harmadidszaki bentonit tpus svnyi nyers

anyagtelepek svnytani, geokmiai s genetikai sszehasonlt vizsglata P h D
Kossuth Lajos Tudomnyegyetem, Debrecen
1999: V E L L E D I T S Felicitsz: a bkki kzps- s fels-trisz rtegtani korrelcija

s fejldsnek elemzse P h D , ELTE Budapest
324 Hrek, ismertetsek
Knyvismertets
VIZY Bla: Bauxitkutats Magyarorszgon
148 oldal. Ebben 18 bra, 16 fnykp, 22 (valjban 27) mellklet.

A Magyar Alumniumipari Mzeum (Szkesfehrvr) kiadvnya, Budapest 1999.
A kicsiny, de rendkvl rdekes s rtkes A mellkletek cmei jl tkrzik a knyv rend

kiadvny sokat-gr alcme: A magyaroszgi kvli adatgazdagsgt s sokszempontsgt.
bauxitkutatsok trtnete, klns tekintettel a Alapvet ipartrtneti forrsmunkv fog vlni.
Bauxitkutat Vllalat (1950-1995) tev
kenysgre". Nem is csaldik benne az olvas. 1. A magyar bauxitbnyszat s -kutats szer
A szerz a tma kivl ismerje: egsz szak vezeti vltozsai, 1903-1996
mai plyafutst a magyar alumnium-iparban 2. A jelentsebb bauxitlelhelyek megismer
tlttte. Elszr Balatonalmdiban a Bauxit snek idpontja s kitermelsnek megind
kutat Vllalat hidrogeolgusa volt, majd igaz tsa (1903-1985)
gatja (1963-1971), majd Budapesten a Magyar 3. A bauxitkutatssal kapcsolatos egyes fogal
Alumniumipari Trszt fgeolgusa (1975-1978 mak, szakkifejezsek magyarzata
s 1985-1990). gy alkalma nyt az egsz proble 4/a A bauxitkutat frsok terjedelme s a felku
matikt sokoldalan megismerni s kritikailag tatott fldtani bauxitkszlet mennyisge 1950
feldolgozni. Ksznet illeti rte, hogy megtette, s 1998 kztt
s megkereste-megtallta a kiads lehetsgt is. 4/b A bauxitkutat frsok terleti megoszlsa
4/c A felkutatott fldtani bauxitkszlet terleti
rdemes a 85 oldalnyi szveges rsz rvidtett megoszlsa
tartalomjegyzkt bemutatni. 5. A bauxitkutats s eredmnyessge 1950 s
1998 kztt
Bevezets (ksznettel a tmogat intzm 6/a A BKV tevkenysgnek megoszlsa a ter
nyeknek s szemlyeknek) mels rbevtele alapjn 1951 s 1995 kztt
A vilg alumniumiparnak kialakulsa, fejl 6/b Ipargi pnzgyi keretbl vgzett bauxitku
dse s helyzete tatsi rfordts megoszlsa 1951 s 1990
A magyarorszgi bauxitkutats trtnete kztt
I. 1903-1919: A trtnelmi Magyarorszgon 7/a A BKV ltszma s a kutatfrgpek fajla
felfedezett bauxit kutatsa s bnyszata gos ltszma
II. 1920-1948: Bauxitkutats tks viszonyok 7/b A bauxitkutat frsok termelkenysge
kztt 8. A Bauxitkutat Vllalat fejlesztsei
III. 1948-1990: Bauxitkutats az llami tulaj 9. A bauxitkszletek szmbavtelvel s nyil
don s irnyts alumniumiparban vntartsval kapcsolatos fontosabb fogalmi
IV. 1991 - Bauxitkutats a gazdasgi rend meghatrozsok
szervltst kveten, az alumnium-ipar 10. A magyar alumniumipar szervezeti vltoz
visszafejlesztse, majd magnostsa idejben sai 1963 s 1997 kztt
Frsos aknamlyts 11. A magnostott magyar alumniumipar
A Bauxitkutat Vllalat kapcsolatrendszere (1997)
sszefoglals 12. A bauxitkutat frsok terjedelme s az
ltaluk felkutatott fldtani bauxitvagyon men
Ezt kveti a hasznlt leggyakoribb rvidtsek nyisge 1950 s 1998 kztt
jegyzke, a bauxitkutats trtnetvel (is) fog 13. A Bauxitkutat Vllalat (Bauxitkutat Expe
lalkoz sszefoglal irodalom (24 ttel), s a fel dci, Geoprospect Kft) felsbb szint veze
hasznlt irodalom (7 ttel). Megjegyzend, hogy ti (1950-1995)
minden fejezet vgn is van gondosan vloga 14. A Bauxitkutat Vllalat (Geoprospect Kft.)
tott irodalom. kzpvezeti
Hrek, ismertetsek 325
15. A kutatsi programok fldtani zrjelent vagy dolga akadt klfldi (karszt)bauxitkutat
sek s vzfldtani jelentsek elksztsben r intzmnyek dokumentcijval, Jamaiktl
demben rszvevk nvsora (abc sorrendben) Grgorszgon s Irnon t Vietnamig. (A later
16. A frt aknk egyes adatai itbauxit-kutats felttelei s kvetelmnyei
17. A bauxitipar szervezete s fgeolgusai 1950 kzismerten egszen msok.) Mindez vilgosan
s 1997 kztt bizonytja, hogy a dicsretesen nirnikus nt
18/a Bauxittermels s felhasznls (1926-1998) val ellenttben: AI2O3. x H 0 " egyltaln nem
2
18/b A bauxittermels terletenknti megosz csak ennyit tud egy jlnevelt bauxitkutat."
lsa (1926-1998) Vgl a Bauxitkutat Vllalat egy olyan jel
19. Magyarorszg bauxittermelse 1926 s 1998 legzetessgt szeretnm megemlteni, amely
kztt kt-ban mgis hinyzik VIZY Bla feldolgozsbl. Nem
20. Magyarorszg bauxitvagyona (1950-1996) rhat fel neki, mert nem szakmai termszet.
21. Magyarorszg ismert bauxitkszletnek Arrl van sz, hogy a Magyar-Szovjet Bauxit-
alakulsa (1950-1996) Alumnium RT Bauxitkutat Expedcija s
22. A fontosabb esemnyek Kronolgija utdja, a mr tisztn magyar Bauxitkutat
Vllalat 1950-tl az 1960-as vek vgig politikai
Idzem az sszefoglalsbl: Haznk mindig a menedkhely is volt, ahol nyugodtan s meg
bauxitipar lvonalban volt... A kutats j o becsltn dolgozhattak olyan mszaki s kutat
gosultsgt s eredmnyessgt bizonytja, hogy szakemberek, akiket akkoriban egyetemeken
1926-tl napjainkig 103 milli tonna bauxitot ter vagy/s tudomnyos kutatintzetekben nem
meltek ki bnyinkbl, amelynek tbb mint lttak szvesen. Ez a kderpolitika bevlt: ezek a
ktharmadt hazai timfldgyraink dolgoztk szakemberek legjobb kpessgeik szerint dol
fel... A kitermelt bauxit 70%-a kerlt ki mly- goztak feladataikon, s mint az adatokbl vil
mvelses bnykbl... 60 milli tonna bauxitot gosan kitnik, nem is eredmnytelenl.
3
sszesen 4,7 millrd m vz kiemelsvel lehetett
csak megoldani..." Az itt jrt francia bauxitgeo Ezrt (is) ksznettel tartozunk az akkori
lgusok szerint ez olyan, mint tenger all ter vezetknek.
melni bauxitot.
Hoz kell tenni ehhez, hogy a kutats doku DUDICH Endre
mentlsa mindvgig rendkvl alapos s pon
tos volt, olykor a (nha bizony bosszant) pe
dnssgig menen. A zrjelentsek tartalma a
nemzetkzi sszehasonltsban is pldaszer:
legfeljebb a tlzottnak vlt rszletessg kpez
hette kritika trgyt. Errl meggyzdhetett - s
egyrtelmen meg is gyzdtt - minden ma
gyar bauxitgeolgus, aki klfldn is dolgozott
Jubill tagtrsaink
Tisztelettel s szeretettel kszntjk Trsulatunk azon tagjait, akik az 1999. v

msodik felben nnepeltk 85., 80., 75., illetve 70. szletsnapjukat. Ksznjk
Trsulatunk s szakmnk rdekben vgzett munkjukat, s k v n u n k tovbbi j
ert, egszsget s j szerencst.
B r e z s n y n s z k y Kroly
az M F T elnke
85 ves
N a g y Lszln
(1914. jl. 5.)
80 ves
K U N Bla P r d y Mihly*
(1919. jl. 2.) (1919 jl. 25)
* PRDY Mihly a fzet szerkesztsi munklatai idejn elhunyt

80 ves
VENDL Anna KKAI I s t v n

(1919. jl. 2 6 . ) (1919. aug. 18.)
URBANCSEK J n o s SZEPESHZY K l m n
(1919. okt. 2 3 . ) (1919. okt. 2 5 . )
KoTSis Tivadar
(1919. dec. 30.)
75 ves
J H E L Y I Gyrgyn
(1924. okt. 25.)
70 ves
D E K Margit VITLIS Gyrgy

(1929. jl.18.) (1929. okt. 3.)
Hrek, ismertetsek
70 ves
P A P A J C S I K Mrtonn F B I N Gyula
(1929. nov. 11.) (1929. nov. 16.)
Pokorni Zoltn oktatsi miniszterhez tovbbtott memorandum
Geolgia a kz- (s felsoktatsban
A civil s z e r v e z e t e k sszefogsval 1 9 9 8 . n o v e m b e r 2 0 - 2 2 - n Tokajban

r e n d e z e t t Geolgia a kzoktatsban" konferencia megtrgyalta a geolginak a
kzoktatsban elfoglalt helyzett, a k z m v e l d s b e n jelenleg betlttt s lehet
sges szerept, s az albbi kvetkeztetsekre jutott.
A mlt
A Mria Terzia ta (Ratio Educationis 1777) arnyosan fejld, nemzetkzileg

is elismert magyar oktatsi rendszerben a termszetrajz szaknak 1948-ban trtnt
felszmolsval jelents trs kvetkezett b e , megszntetve ezzel a krnyezetet
egysges egszben lt kutatk, pedaggusok, nemzetkzi hr biolgusok,
geolgusok, geogrfusok k p z s n e k alapjt. Sajnlatos m d o n , ez e g y mig tar
t folyamat k e z d e t n e k bizonyult, a m e l y n e k sorn a geolgia s geofizika - s l
talban a f l d t u d o m n y o k - szerepnek s hasznossgtudatnak fokozatos csk
k e n s e volt tapasztalhat m i n d a kzoktatsban, mind a kzismereti szfrban.
A jelenlegi helyzet
A t e r m s z e t t u d o m n y o s vilgkp formlsa, a krnyezetnket teljessgben

lttatni k v n oktats tern olyan ismereti h i n y o k k p z d t e k , a m e l y e k
k v e t k e z m n y e i m r m a is slyosan reztetik hatsukat. A fldi fejldst id-tr
d i m e n z i b a n s anyagismereti alapjaiban b e m u t a t i s m e r e t e k m i n i m u m r a
cskkentse a kzoktatsban megvltoztatta a felnv genercik t e r m s z e t h e z
fzd rtkrendjt. Az lettelen krnyezet m a n e m az let forrsaknt, az letet
h o r d o z , v d , begyaz k z e g k n t jelenik m e g az alapmveltsg szintjn - ahol
a t e r m s z e t mindinkbb a nvny- s llatvilg szinonimjv szklt - h a n e m
tbbnyire csak mint nyersanyagforrs kerl emltsre, leglnyegesebb alkotinak
b e m u t a t s a nlkl. Az emberi tevkenysggel sszefgg termszeti krnyezet
b e trtn beavatkozsok vrhat k v e t k e z m n y e i n e k trsadalmi m r e t meg
rtse felttelezi a fldtudomnyi alapismereteket. Hinya alapveten cskkenti
a termszet- s krnyezetvdelmi, a krnyezetgazdlkodsi s az sszer kr
nyezethasznostsi trekvsek hatsfokt. Br a geokrnyezet rzkenysge ki
sebb, folyamatai lassbbak, mint az lvilg, krosodsa tartsan visszahat arra.
A geolgiai, illetve fldtudomnyi ismeretek bvtsnek jelentsge
- L n y e g i ismereti h i n y o k kvetkeztben sem a trsadalom", sem a dnts

h o z k n e m lthatjk a geolgia terleteinek s egyb f l d t u d o m n y o k n a k
(geofizika, geokmia, talajtan, alkalmazott-, mszaki- s krnyezetfldtan stb.)

vals szerept, s ezrt nem k p e s e k felhasznli ignyt sem tmasztani velk
szemben.
- Az elbbiekbl addan elvi s gyakorlati szinten egyarnt teret hdt s
visszalsekhez vezet az ltudomnyossg.
- Az e m b e r e k letminsgnek javtshoz a fldtudomnyok tgabb krt is
rint fldtani kutats szmos, gazdasgilag mrhet e r e d m n n y e l jrul hozz:
termszeti folyamatok felismerse, nyersanyagok felkutatsa, krnyezeti krok
elhrtsa, katasztrfk elkerlse stb. Energiaforrsaink 8 0 % - a ptett krnye
z e t n k 75%-a ltfontossg tpanyagaink jelents rsze (vz, s, n y o m e l e m e k
stb.) svnyi eredetek. A j v egyik gretes krnyezetbart energiaforrsa a
geotermikus energia, a m e l y n e k hasznostsra j adottsgaink vannak.
- Az Univerzum legalaposabban tanulmnyozott rsze a Fld, a m e l y egy
trben s idben egyarnt vltoz dinamikus egyenslyi rendszer. E n n e k az
e g y e n s l y n a k a megbomlsa (megbontsa) az lvilg jelents rsznek, kztk
az e m b e r n e k a m e g s e m m i s l s h e z is vezethet. Az e g y e n s l y m e g b o m l s
elkerlse teht az emberisg alapvet rdeke. Az l s az lettelen termszeti
k r n y e z e t evolcijnak, tr- s idbeli fejldsnek s klcsnhatsnak folya
matait leginkbb a geolgia kpes megismerni s rekonstrulni.
- A termszeti krnyezet s a b e n n e l trsadalom klcsnkapcsolataiban
rvnyesl trvnyszersgek feltrshoz elssorban a f l d t u d o m n y o k ezen
bell is leginkbb a geolgia, a fldrajz, a geofizika, a meteorolgia (klimatolgia),
a talajtan, a hidrogeolgia stb., - a biolgival kzsen - tud l e g e r e d m n y e
sebben s leghatkonyabban hozzjrulni. Egyik fontos hozzjruls lehet a
klcsnkapcsolatok ismeretnek felhasznlsa az n. krnyezeti nevelsben,
a m e l y a NAT egyik kiemelt clja. Ez egybknt a fejlett vilg trendje is.
- A genetikai alapon megfogalmazott biodiverzits ismerete, v d e l m e , fenn
tartsa megkvnja a geodiverzitsi rendszer alapmveltsgi szint ismerett s
vdelmt.
Javaslat
A j v n e m z e d k termszettudomnyos alapmveltsgnek s krnyezeti

kultrjnak fejlesztse rdekben a Geolgia a kzoktatsban" konferencia
r s z t v e v i felkrik a M a g y a r K z t r s a s g oktatsi k o r m n y z a t t , h o g y a
fldrajzoktats jelenlegi szintjnek megtartsa s minsgi fejlesztse mellett:
a) a N e m z e t i Alaptanterv korrekcija sorn - kvetve h a g y o m n y a i n k a t s a
fejlett orszgok gyakorlatt - nll tantrgyknt ptse be a geolgit a kz
oktatsba,
b) tegye lehetv, h o g y a jelenlegi p e d a g g u s o k kzl a geolgia oktatsra
alkalmas s vllalkoz fldrajz, biolgia v a g y k m i a szakos tanrok olyan m r v
tovbbkpzsben rszeslhessenek, amely alkalmass teszi ket a geolgia tan
trgy oktatsra,
c) t e r e m t s e m e g a geolgia szakos t a n r o k k p z s n e k l e h e t s g t az
e g y e t e m e k e n s fiskolkon m s o d i k (fldrajz-geolgia, biolgia-geolgia v a g y
k m i a - g e o l g i a stb.), vagy h a r m a d i k szakknt.
1998. december
A javaslatot tmogat trsadalmi szervezetek
Magyarhoni Fldtani Trsulat Fldtani rksgnk Egyeslet

Dr. BRCZI Istvn elnk DOMOKOS Sndor elnk
Csongrd Megyei Kereskedelmi s Iparkamara Magyar Agrrtudomnyi Egyeslet Talajtani
Dr. SZERI Istvn elnk Trsasg
HORN Pter az MTA r. tagja elnk
Csongrd Megyei Mrnki Kamara Magyar Biolgiai Trsasg
MEDGYESI Pl elnk Dr. JUHSZ-NAGY Sndor elnk
"Koch Sndor" Csongrd Megyei Tudomnyos Magyar Energetikai Trsasg
Ismeretterjeszt Trsulat Dr. PETZ Ern elnk
Dr. KANY Zoltnn v. igazgat
Energiagazdlkodsi Tudomnyos Egyeslet Magyar Geofizikusok Egyeslete
Dr. ZETTNER Tams elnk ROMNN HEGYBR Zsuzsanna elnk
Magyar ptipari szvetsg Magyar Hidrolgiai Trsasg
Dr. SZAB Mikls elnk Dr. STAROSOLSZKY dn elnk
Magyar Fldmrsi, Trkpszeti s
Tvrzkelsi Trsasg Magyar Karszt- s Barlangkutat Trsulat
DETREKI kos az M T A r. tagja elnk Dr. HEVESI Attila elnk
Sziliktipari Tudomnyos Egyeslet Magyar PB Gz Egyeslet
VGH Jen elnk DNES Jnos elnk
Termszet- s Krnyezetvd Tanrok Egyeslete Orszgos Magyar Bnyszati s Kohszati
Dr. TTH Albert elnk Egyeslet
Dr. TARDY Pl elnk
T I T Magyar Termszettudomnyi Trsasg Als-Tisza-Vidki Krnyezetvdelmi
Dr. DANK Viktor elnk Felgyelsg
Dr. MAJOR Tibor igazgat
Csongrd Megyei Kzgyls Als-Tisza-Vidki Vzgyi Igazgatsg
O T T Jzsef alelnk Dr. KOVCS Gbor igazgat
Etvs Lornd Tudomnyegyetem Termszet Dr. Fldi Jnos Altalnos s Mvszeti
tudomnyi Kar Geolgiai Tanszkcsoport Iskola
Dr. MONOSTORI Mikls tanszkcsoportvezet FILEP Mikls igazgat
egyetemi tanr
Jzsef Attila Tudomnyegyetem Termszet Juhsz Gyula Tanrkpz Fiskola
tudomnyi Kar Termszettudomnyi Intzet
Dr. VARGA Kroly dkn Dr. NMET Jzsef igazgat
Magyar llami Fldtani Intzet Kroli Gspr Reformtus Egyetem
BREZSNYANSZKY Kroly igazgat Tantkpz Fiskolai Kar
Dr. NAGY Istvn figazgat
Magyar Geolgiai Szolglat Kossuth Lajos Tudomnyegyetem
Dr. FARKAS Istvn figazgat Termszettudomnyi Kar svny- s
Fldtani Tanszk
DR.SZR Gyula tanszkvezet
egyetemi tanr
Magyar llami Etvs Lornd Geofizikai Intzet Magyar Tudomnyos Akadmia SZAB Fld
Dr. BODOKY Tams igazgat es Krnyezettudomnyi Szakbizottsga
Dr. MEZSI Gbor elnk
Magyar Tudomnyos Akadmia X. Fldtudomnyok Miskolci Egyetem Bnyamrnki Kar
Osztlya Fldtani Geofizikai Intzete
Dr. SOMFAI Attila Intzetigazgat
tanszkvezet egyetemi tanr
Magyar Tudomnyos Akadmia Fldtudomnyi Szeged MJ Vros Polgrmesteri Hivatal
Kutatkzpont Kzoktatsi s Kzmveldsi Iroda
PANT Gyrgy az MTA r. tagja figazgat SZIGETI Kroly irodavezet
Bksi 1. sz. ltalnos Iskola Bks Mendiks Mrnki Vllalkozsi Kft.

FARKAS Lszln igazgat SZEPESSY Andrs gyvezet
Angyalfldtri ltalnos Iskola Debrecen Mecsek rc Krnyezetvdelmi Rt.
PUSZTAI Mrtonn igazgat BENKOVICS Istvn vezrigazgat
Geokomplex Kft. Bakonyi Bauxitbnya Kft.
DEK Jnos gyvezet KOVACSICS rpd igazgat h.
Etvs Lornd Tudomnyegyetem Termszet- Magyar Termszettudomnyi Mzeum
tudomnyi Kar Geofizikai Tanszk Dr. KECSKEMTI Tibor figazgat h.
Dr. MESK Attila tanszkvezet
egyetemi tanr
GEOteam Kutatsi s Vllalkozsi Kft. Magyar Olajipari Mzeum Alaptvny
CENE Jnos gyvezet TTH Jnos igazgat
B I O - G E N Alkalmazott Talajbiolgiai Kutat Kft.
SRY Lajos gyvezet
LEZSK Sndor orszggylsi felszlalsa
Dr. A D E R Jnos rnak

az Orszggyls elnknek
Tisztelt Elnk r!
A Hzszably 118. -a s a Magyar Kztrsasg Alkotmnynak 27. -a alapjn

bejelentem, h o g y krdst kvnok feltenni P O K O R N I Zoltn miniszter r n a k
"Lt-e arra lehetsget, h o g y a geolgia tantsa m e g h o n o s o d j o n a m a g y a r

kzoktats rendszerben?" cmmel.
A krdsre rsban krek vlaszt.
Tisztelt Miniszter r!
Az elmlt fl vszzadban olyan nagy mrtkben fejldtek ltalban a fld

t u d o m n y o k - elssorban a geolgia s a geofizika - h o g y tlfesztettk a hagyo
m n y o s tantrgyakba szortott kereteiket. M a rszben a kmia, rszben a fldrajz,
rszben a biolgia tantrgyak keretben tanulnak a dikok - implicite - geolgit,
de e z e k az ismeret-rszek ritkn llnak ssze egysges tudss. M s szempontbl
oktatjk a fldrajz keretben a kontinensek vndorlsnak kzetforml hatst,
ms szempontbl a biolgiban a szerves eredet kolajnak vagy a mszk
h e g y s g e k n e k a keletkezst s ms indttatsbl egyes svnyok kinzett s
vegyi sszettelt a kmia tantsban.
Mg a M a g y a r Tudomnyos Akadmia a t u d o m n y o k nll csoportjnak,
azaz nll t u d o m n y o s osztlynak tekinti a fldtudomnyokat - fggetlentve
ezeket a tudomnygakat pldul a kmiai tudomnyoktl - addig a kzoktats
m e g s z o k s o n alapul tantervei n e m kvettk a tudomnyos let fejldsnek
ilyen rtelm mdosulst. Ms orszgok oktatsi gyakorlattl eltren nlunk

a geolgia m g fakultatv tantrgyknt sem kap szerepet a kzoktatsban, ezrt
is hinyosak a lakossg fldtani ismeretei. Az ilyen jelleg tudatlansgot s kp
zetlensget kihasznlva adtak el a kzelmltban ptkezknek idjrsi viszon
tagsgokra r z k e n y falazanyagokat, beszltek r kisvllalkozkat - kz
nyelvben a gilisztsokat" - h u m u s z ltrehozsra" (brmely talajtani knyv
szerint ez lehetetlen vllalkozs), s m i n d e n n a p o s a k a fldsugrzst" elkerl
fekhelyek meghatrozsra, mgneses ertrgcok", fld alatti vzfolysok
kijellsre vonatkoz ltudomnyos, sarlatn szolgltatsok hirdetsei. A
h a g y o m n y o s tudomnygak sztvlsa s egyre specifikusabb ismeretanyagaik
miatt ezen az interdiszciplinlis terleten az idk folyamn egyre nagyobb
ismeret-hzag keletkezett, amit valsznleg mr csak egy j tantrgy, a geolgia
kzoktatsban trtn megjelentsvel lehet megfelel tudssal kitlteni.
A kzelmltban megtartott Geolgia a kzoktatsban" cm konferencin
rszt vev akadmikusok, egyetemi tanrok, tudomnyos s ismeretterjeszt
egyesletek rsztvevi Miniszter r h o z is elkldtk javaslatukat, m e l y e k szerint
a Nemzeti Alaptanterv korrekcija folytn - tvve a fejlett orszgok gyakorlatt
- nll tantrgyknt kerljn be a geolgia oktatsa a kzoktatsba.
Ezton is felkrem Miniszter Urat, h o g y fejtse ki llspontjt a geolginak a
kzoktatsban nll tantrgyknt trtn bevezetsnek lehetsgrl.
Budapest, 1999. mjus 28.

LEZSK Sndor
orszggylsi kpvisel
MDF
POKORNI Zoltn vlasza Lezsk Sndornak
Dr. A D E R Jnos rnak

az Orszggyls elnknek
Tisztelt Elnk r!
A Hzszably 118. -a s a Magyar Kztrsasg Alkotmnynak 27. -a alapjn,

a L E Z S K Sndor orszggylsi kpvisel r ltal feltett - "Lt-e arra lehetsget,
h o g y a geolgia tantsa meghonosodjon a magyar kzoktats rendszerben?" -
krdsre (K/1310/1), a kvetkezket vlaszolom.
Tisztelt Kpvisel r!
A magyar kzoktatsban a termszetismeret oktatsa, a termszettudomnyos

trgyak ismerettad szerepe, valamint ezeknek az eredmnyessge hatrainkon
tl is elismert, vitathatatlan.
Kpvisel r a krdsben olyan problmakrt vzolt fel, a m e l y n e k keretben
a geolgit, illetve a fldtudomnyokat rint megoldsi javaslattal l.
A j e l e n l e g r v n y b e n lv NAT elkszt munklatai sorn, h o s s z szakmai

vitk e r e d m n y e k n t ltrejtt a Fldnk s k r n y e z e t n k mveltsgterlet. Ezt
akkor szles krben, szakmai frumokon egyeztettk a szakrtk. A NAT
trtnete sorn az egyes tantrgyak kpviseli kztt k o n s z e n z u s alakult ki
abban, h o g y melyik mveltsgterletbe m e l y tantrgyi i s m e r e t e k kerljenek.
Teht az E m b e r s termszet mveltsgterlet, a m e l y a fizika, k m i a , biolgia s
egszsgnevels tantrgyak ismeretanyagait tartalmazza, valamint a F l d n k s
k r n y e z e t n k mveltsgterlet kztt feladatmegoszts trtnt abban, h o g y
szigor logikai elvek alapjn az l s lettelen termszethez kapcsolhat
ismereteket h o g y a n r e n d e z z k el.
E b b e n a rendszerben a termszet megjelentse g y trtnik, h o g y szleskr
alapoz ismeretekre plve, tbb tantrgy keretn bell, logikus, k o m p l e x isme
retek k e r l n e k a tanulk szmra tadsra.
M i n d e z e k k e l s z e m b e n a beadvny olyan javaslatot fogalmazott m e g , amely
v l e m n y e m szerint n e m felel m e g a kzoktats eddigi rendszernek, n e m
tmaszkodik sem a hazai, sem a nemzetkzi gyakorlatra, s alapveten tala
ktan a kz- s felsoktats rendszert.
A kpvisel r els krse az, hogy pljenek be a geolgiai i s m e r e t e k a kz
oktats rendszerbe nll tantrgy - a geolgia - keretben.
Ismert, h o g y az iskolkban - elssorban a fldrajz tantrgy keretben -
oktatjk e n n e k a mveltsgterletnek az ismeretanyagt az eredeti elkpzel
sekkel, az eurpai gyakorlattal, valamint a hazai tradcikkal sszhangban. D e a
t m b a n a kmia, fizika, valamint a biolgia tantrgyak szerepe a tovbbiakban
is j e l e n t s maradt.
Az iskolkban a helyi tantervek alapjn - elssorban teht a fldrajz tantrgy
k e r e t b e n - j e l e n t s m e n n y i s g geolgiai ismeret tadsra kerl sor. A
k z e t t a n t l az s l n y t a n i g , a l e m e z t e k t o n i k a i i s m e r e t e k t l a F l d bels
szerkezetig, a fldrengsekkel kapcsolatos tananyagtl a vulknossgig s az
ledkgyjt m e d e n c k szerepig n a g y o n hossz a lista. E z e n ismeretek a
fldrajz tantervekben rszben nll tantervi fejezetekknt - A kzetburok, A
Fld trtnete - rszben integrlt ismeretekknt - Az energiahordozk, A Fld
bnyszata - k e r l n e k a tanulk szmra tadsra. M i n d e z e k mellett fontos
hangslyozni, h o g y az egyes tantervi fejezeteken bell bizonyos t m k - az
s v n y o k sszettele, a kzetek tulajdonsgai, szerepk a trsadalom letben, a
lemeztektonika, a k z e t e k keletkezse stb. - rszletes kifejtsre kerlnek m i n d az
ltalnos, m i n d a kzpfok oktatsi i n t z m n y e k b e n .
M i n d e z e k mellett a biolgia s a fldrajz tantrgy kln-kln is, alaposan
elemzi a Fldtrtnet n a g y idszakait, az egyes korokban lt nevezetes llnyek
fldtani, biolgiai szerepvel egytt.
A k m i a tantrgy keretn bell az svnyok kmiai sszettele, a fizika tan
trgy keretein bell pedig a radioaktv kormeghatrozs kerl tbbek kztt
megtantsra.
A g e o l g i a i i s m e r e t e k oktatsa az e z e n i s m e r e t e k tadsra felkszt
p e d a g g u s k p z s b e n szintn n e m okoz problmt. Egyfell az egyetemi, illetve
fiskolai fldrajz szakos tanrkpzsben jelenleg is hangslyosan m e g j e l e n n e k a
geolgiai ismeretek. Msrszt a biolgia, a fldrajz, valamint a k m i a szakos
tanrok szmra a pedaggus tovbbkpzsi rendszer j e l e n l e g is lehetv teszi

azt, h o g y a tovbbkpzsi knlatban n a g y szmban megtallhat geolgiai
irnyultsg tovbbkpzsi programbl vlasszanak.
A kpvisel r ltal felvetett javaslat egybknt rinten az e g y e t e m e k e n
illetve a fiskolkon a geolgia-fldrajz, geolgia-biolgia, g e o l g i a - k m i a
szakos tanrkpzs megindtst is, ami v l e m n y e m szerint n e m indokolt. Ez
a z o n k v l , h o g y a hazai t e r m s z e t t u d o m n y o s p e d a g g u s k p z s (biolgia
fldrajz, biolgia-kmia, kmia-fizika) tstrukturlst j e l e n t e n , a kzokta
tsban az egyes tantrgyak kztt kialakult egyenslyt is m e g b o n t a n .
Azon sajnlatos e s e m n y e k , a m e l y e k az egyes llampolgrok tjkozat
lansgbl fakadan - biogiliszta tenyszts, rossz m i n s g falazanyagok
m e g j e l e n s e az ptiparban - anyagi krhoz vezettek, v l e m n y e m szerint n e m
a geolgiai ismeretek hinyossgbl, h a n e m a piacon j e l e n l v vllalkozsok
e l l e n r z s n e k a hinybl, valamint az e m b e r e k hiszkenysgbl kvetkeztek.
A fent emltett rveim alapjn a kpvisel r b e a d v n y b a n foglaltakat n e m
tmogatom.
Tisztelettel:
Budapest, 1999. jnius 14.
POKORNI Zoltn
oktatsi miniszter
Hasonl tartalm levelet kldtt K R N Y E I Lszl az Oktatsi Minisztrium

helyettes llamtitkra C S S Z R Gza ftitkrnak 1 9 9 9 . prilis 8-n.
A magyar fldtani irodalom repertriuma

1999*
sszelltotta : P I R O S O l g a
Andrssy L., F l d e s s y J., V i h a r L. & Groups Association; 5-9 September

Z e l e n k a T. 1999: A LIPS2 hordozhat 1999, Krakow. Frogram with Abstracts,
lzer-induklt spektromterrel recsk- Pracownia AA, p. 57.
lahcai frmagmintkon vgzett r k a i , E, M a t a , E M., G i o r g e t t i , G., F e a c o r ,
vizsglatok eddigi eredmnyei. - Magyar D. R. & T t h , M. 1999: Comparison of
Geofizika 38/1, 44-58. diagenetic and incipient metamorphic
rkai, E & Lelkes-Felvr, Gy. 1998: evolution of chlorite in associated pelitic
Metamorphic evolution paths in a sedimentary and basic igneous rocks: an
detached fragment of the Variscan crust integrated XRD and study. -
(the Tisza unit in the Pannonian Basin): EUROCLAY 1999 - Conference of the
theories, data and questions. - Acta Univ. European Clay Groups Association; 5-9
Carolinae, Geol. (Prga) 4 2 / 2 , 205-206. September 1999; Krakow. Frogram with
r k a i , E 1999: The basement of the Abstracts, Pracownia AA, p. 57.
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approach. Min Wien; 1999 Aug 31 - Sept minerai water management and
1; Wien. Stuttgart. - Berichte der utilization of geothermal energy in
Deutschen Mineralogischen Gesell Hungary. - IAH International Symposium
schaft. Beihefte zum European Journal of on mineral and Thermal Groundwater
Mineralogy 11, p. 21. 24-27. June 1998, Miercurea Ciuc,
r k a i , E, B a l o g h , ., Demny, A., F r i z s , I., Romania Proceedings, p. 7.
M t h , Z . & Nagy, G. 1999: Study of rpsi, M., Gyenese, I. & Megyery, M. 1999:
composition, diagenetic and post- Geotermikus energit termel ktpr
diagenetic alterations of the Boda Albitic hidrodinamikai vizsglata. - Bnyszati
Claystone Formation. - The Geology of s Kohszati Lapok - Kolaj s Fldgz 32/5,
Today for Tomorrow Hungarian Geo 129-131.
logical Society - A Satellite Conference rpsi, M. & L o r b e r e r , . 1999: A zalai
of the World Conference on Science; mlykarszt geotermlis adottsgai s a
21-22 Jun 1999. Budapest, Hungarian hasznosts lehetsgei. - Bnyszati s
Geological Society, Programme and Kohszati Lapok - Kolaj s Fldgz 32/5,
Abstracts p. 34. 112-114.
r k a i , E, Frey, M. & S u c h y , V. 1999: The Balassa I., D a n k I., F e l f l d i L., F l r i n
effect of tectonic shear on illite- M., H l a }., Kisbn E. & T t r a i Zs. 1999:
muscovite: a case study from the Robert Townson nprajzi megfigyelsei
Kandersteg area, Helvetic Alps, Magyarorszgon. - Nprajzi Lthatr
Switzerland. - EUROCLAY 1999. - 7/3-4,1-17.
Conference of the European Clay
* Kiegsztsekkel az 1998-as vbl. A hasonl kssek elkerlse vgett a jvben a kvetkez v 2.

fzetben jelenik meg az irodalom
B a l z s F. 1999: Kis- s kzpmagas M o l n r P., P e r l a k y F., T u n g l i Gy.,

lszfalak megtmasztsa Baranyban. - M a j o r o s Gy. & V e r b c z i J. 1999:
Fldtani Kutats 36/3, 34-35. Megalapozottak-e a tudomnyos kte
B a l l Z . 1999: Tektonikai problmk a lyek veghuta alkalmassgval kapcs-
radioaktv hulladk elhelyezsben. - latban? - Trsgi Krniks 1999/3, 3-5.
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B a l l Z . 1999: Van-e bizonytk negyed Climate-controlled early dolomite, Late
idszaki tektonizmusra Paks krny Triassic cyclic platform carbonates,
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volume Seismic safety of the Paks Svabenicka, L., S z e n t , I. & Z o r n , 1.1998:
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Brdossy Gy. 1999: A hazai radioaktv Solar System Spherule Stratigraphy:
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Akadmiai Mhely. Szkfoglalk II. 1998, Budapest Abstracts, 6-8.
ktet 1-31. B r c z i , Sz., D o n , Gy., G l - S l y m o s , ,
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megkutatsnak s bnyszatnak ta Foliated Kaba CV3 Chondrite. Antarctic
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Brdossy Gy., A. & Tiszay J. 1998: A B r c z i , Sz., Disy, T. & T t h , Sz. 1998:
halimbai bauxittelep fldtani megisme Construction of hunveyor, a planetary
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Fldtani Kutats 35/1, 3-7. and technology (robotics) connections in
Brdossy Gy., A. & Tiszay J . 1998: A education: how to collect spherules? -
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Jubileumi Vndorgylse, Nyregyhza, borehole Baksa No. 2. SE Transdanubia,
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Universitatis Scientiarum Budapestinensis International Association of Sedimento-
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de Rolando Eotvos Nominate. Sectio logists 19 Regional Meeting, Copen
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S Z R , G y , R Z S A , P, B E S Z E D A , I. & U Z O N Y I , T H A M - B O Z S , E. 1999: Mineral com
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International Meeting on Organic of the Transdanubian range and Bkk

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Subsidence analysis of Upper hdoltsg alatt. - Visegrdi Hrek 14/10,
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felhagyott (rmai) kbnya, Rka-hegyi DULAI A. 1999: Az llatvilg hrom tja.
kbnya. - In: C S E M E Z A. et al.(szerk): Molekulris trzsfa. - let s Tudomny
Mesl buda fldje. 2.2. fejezet, 218-221, 54/39,1225-1227.
224, 234, 240, 241. DULAI A. 1999: Rvai j Lexikona 4. ktet.
D O B O S I. 1998: Sajtviszhang - Tudstsok Bn-Cyt 40 slnytani szcikk. Babits
a lepencei ltestmnyekrl. - Visegrdi Kiad, Szekszrd
Hrek 14/1, p. 5. FARKAS Z . 1998: A sznhidrognek -
D O B O S I. 1998: Egy rgi terv kzs ltogats a Magyar Olajipari Mzeum
hulladklerak hely ltestsre. - ban. - Segdanyag s munkafzet a
Visegrdi Hrek 14/2, p. 2. Teleki Pl fldrajz-fldtan versenyhez,
D O B O S I. 1998: A Lepence-vlgy rtkeirl 15 p.
- Szemelvnyek a vzgyi szakiroda HR, J. 1998: 50 milli v zenete a messeli
lombl. - Visegrdi Hrek 14/3, p. 2. olajpalban. - Termszet Vilga 129/9,
D O B O S I. 1998: Merre folyt az sduna? - 404-407.
Visegrdi Hrek 14/6, p. 5. HR, J. 1998: A dengelegi homokbnya
D O B O S I. 1998: A kzpkori Duna a trk letnt lvilga. - let s Tudomny 53/37,
hdoltsgi trkpeken s tlersokban. 1164-1166.
- Visegrdi Hrek 14/7, p. 2. KKAY S Z A B O. 1999: Vilgt svnyok. -
D O B O S I. 1998: "Lzr dek" trkpe. - Termszetbvr 54/6, p. 39.
Visegrdi Hrek 14/8, p. 2.
K O R D O S L . 1 9 9 9 : "Gabi", az jabb SSDI L . 1 9 9 9 : Barlangvrosok Kappa-

Rudapithecus-koponya. - Histria 2 0 / 7 , dkiban. - Termszet 1 4 - 1 5 .
2-9. S S D I L . 1 9 9 9 : Esztramos. - TermszetYl-Yi.
K O R D O S L. 1 9 9 9 : A rudabnyai smajmok. - SMEGI P 1 9 9 9 : Csigk s kagylk a
Histria 20/9-10, 4 3 ^ 4 . rgszeti kutatsokban. 1. - Termszet
K O R D O S L . 1 9 9 9 : talakul emlsfaunnk. - Vilga 130/10, 454-57.
Termszet 1999/11-12, 5 - 7 . SMEGI P 1 9 9 9 : Csigk s kagylk a
K O R D O S L . 1 9 9 9 : Beszl csontok. - rgszeti kutatsokban. 2 . - Termszet
Termszet 1 9 9 9 / 9 - 1 0 , 1 1 - 1 3 . Vilga 130/11, 4 5 4 - 4 5 7 .
K O R D O S L . 1 9 9 9 : Srknygykok. - Szalay S Z N O K Y M. 1 9 9 8 : Hogyan segti a geolgia
Knyvkiad, Kisjszlls, 6 4 p. a rgszek munkjt? - Termszet Vilga
KORDOS L.1999: snk legteljesebb 129/4,188-190.
koponyja. - Elet s Tudomny 44, VITLIS Gy. 1 9 9 9 : Geolgiai kirnduls
1390-1394. Magyarorszgon. - A Berzsenyi Dniel
KORDOS L. & VERES I. 1 9 9 9 : svilgunk Evanglikus Gimnzium (Liceum) Evknyve
kpekben. - Szalay Knyvkiad, az 1998/99. tanvrl az iskola fennllsnak
Kisjszlls, 6 3 p. 442. vben, Sopron, 1 9 9 9 , 2 2 4 - 2 2 5 .
LORBERER . 1 9 9 8 : A bki termlkarsztvz V I T L I S N Z I L A H Y L . 1 9 9 8 : Monor fld
eredete s utnptldsa. - Vasi Szemle tudomnyi megismerse. - In: VITLISN
52/2, 2 2 4 - 2 4 3 . , 2 5 5 . Z I L A H Y L. & D O B O S Gy (szerk.): Monori
LORBERER . 1 9 9 8 : Felszni s felszn alatti Krnika 1 3 9 8 - 1 9 9 8 . Kalangya Kkt. -
vizek. - In: C S E M E Z A . et al. (szerk.): Monor Helytrtneti Kr kiadsa 2 3 - 2 8 .
Mesl buda fldje. 1. 2 . fejezet, 2 5 - 4 2 .
L O R B E R E R . 1 9 9 8 : Fldtani felpts s
geolgiai nevezetessgek. - In: C S E M E Z
A. et al. (szerk.): Mesl buda fldje. 1.
3. fejezet, 4 3 - 6 4 .
tmutat a Fldtani Kzlny szerzi szmra
A Fldtani Kzlny a Magyarhoni Fldtani Trsulat hivatalos szakfolyirata csak eredeti, j

tudomnyos eredmnyeket tartalmaz (magyar, ill. idegen nyelven mg meg nem jelent) kzlemnyeket
fogad el.
Elsdleges cl a hazai flddel foglalkoz, vagy ahhoz kapcsold trgy cikkek megjelentetse. A
kzirat lehet: rtekezs, rvid kzlemny, vitairat, frum, szemle, rvid hr, knyvismertets stb. Vitairat
a vitatott cikk megjelenstl szmtott hat hnapon bell kldhet be. Ez esetben a vitatott cikk szerzje
lehetsget kap arra, hogy vlasza a vitz cikkel egytt jelenjk meg. Az rtekezsek maximlis
sszestett terjedelme 25 nyomdai oldal (szveg, bra, tblzat, fnykp, tbla). Ezt meghalad rtekezs
csak abban az esetben kzlhet, ha a szerz a tbletoldal kltsgnek 130%-os trtsre ktelezettsget
vllal. A tmr fogalmazs s az lltsokat altmaszt adatszolgltats alapkvetelmny. A folyirat
nyelve magyar s angol. A kzlsre sznt cikk brmelyik nyelven benyjthat, minden esetben magyar
s angol nyelv sszefoglalssal. Az angol vltozat vagy sszefoglals elksztse a szerz feladata. Ms
idegen nyelven trtn megjelentetshez a Szerkesztbizottsg hozzjrulsa szksges.
A kziratot (szveg, bra, tblzat, fnykp, tbla) digitlis formban lemezen vagy hlzaton ke
resztl kell benyjtani, emellett a technikai szerkeszthz 3 nyomtatott pldnyt is meg kell
kldeni. Ha a szerz nem tudja biztostani a digitlis formt a kzirat elfogadsrl a Szerkeszt
bizottsg javaslata alapjn a Trsulat Elnksge dnt, tekintettel annak kltsgvonzatra. Jelenleg IBM-
kompatibilis szemlyi szmtgpen brmely szvegszerkesztbl ASCII kdban (DOS Text Only)
kimentett vltozat nyjthat be, de elssorban a Word vltozatok hasznlata javasolt (.rtf formtumban).
A Szerkesztbizottsg hrom lektort jell ki. A felkrt lektoroknak 3 ht ll rendelkezsre a lekto
rlsra. A harmadik lektor egy pozitv s egy negatv vlemny, ill. valamelyik lektor visszautast
vlasza esetn kapja meg a kziratot. A szerztl a Szerkesztbizottsg a lektorls utn 1 hnapon bell
vrja a javtott vltozatot. Amennyiben a lektor kri, tdolgozs utn jra megtekintheti a cikket, s ha
kvnja, pr sorban kzzteheti szakmai szrevteleit a cikkel kapcsolatban. Abban az esetben, ha a
szerzi javts utn megkapott cikkel kapcsolatban a lektor 3 hten bell nem nyilvnt vlemnyt, gy
tekintjk, hogy a cikket abban a formjban elfogadta. Mindazonltal a Szerkesztbizottsg fenn-tartja
magnak a jogot, hogy kisebb vltoztats esetn 2 hnapon, nagy tdolgozs esetn 6 hnapon tl
berkez cikkek megjelentetst visszautastsa.
A kzirat rszei (ktelez, javasolt):
a, Cm g, A tma kifejtse megfelel alcm alatt
h, Diszkusszi
b, Szerz(k), postacmmel (E-mail cm) i, Eredmnyek, kvetkeztetsek
c, sszefoglals (angol abstract) j , Ksznetnyilvnts
d, Bevezets, elzmnyek k, Hivatkozott irodalom
e, Mdszerek 1, bra-, tblzat- s fnykpmagyarzatok
f, Adatbzis, adatkezels m, brk, tblzatok s fnykptblk
A Kzlny nem alkalmaz az alcmek esetben sem decimlis, sem abc-s megjellst. Az alcmek nem
lehetnek hrom fokozatnl nagyobbak. Lbjegyzetek hasznlata kerlend, amennyiben mgis
elkerlhetetlen, a szveg vgn sorszmozva n. vgjegyzetknt jelenik meg.
A cikk szvegben hivatkozsok az albbiak szerint trtnjenek:
RADCZ (1974), ill. (RADCZ 1974)
GALCZ & V R S (1972), ill. (GALCZ & V R S 1972)
KUBOVICS et al. (1987), ill. (KUBOVICS et al. 1987)
(GALCZ & V R S 1972; RADCZ 1974,1982; KUBOVICS et al. 1987)
(RADCZ 1974, p. 15.)
Az illusztrcis anyagot (bra, tblzat, fnykp, tbla) a tkrmretbe (130x196) ll, vagy fekv
helyzetben beilleszthet mretben kell elkszteni. Az illusztrcis anyagon a vonalvastagsg ne legyen
0,3 pontnl kisebb, a betmret ne legyen 6 pontnl kisebb. A digitlis brkat, tblkat cdr, ,tif, .eps,
.wmf kiterjesztsekkel, illetve, a trdel programba trtn beilleszthetsg miatt az Excel tblzatokat
word tblzatokk konvertlt formban, az Excel brkat CorelDraw formtumban tudjuk elfogadni.
A Fldtani Kzlny feltnteti a cikk berkezsi s elfogadsi idejt is. A ksedelmes szerzi javts
esetn a msodik (utols) berkezs is feltntetsre kerl.
Az elrsoknak meg nem felel kziratokat a technikai szerkeszt a szerznek, tbb szerz esetn
az els szerznek visszakldi.
A kziratokat a kvetkez cmre krjk bekldeni: Piros Olga 1443 Budapest, Pf. 106.
Fldtani Kzlny
Vol. 130. 2. 2000
Tartalom - Contents
CSSZR Gza: Ftitkri jelents a Magyarhoni Fldtani Trsulat 1999. vi tevkenysgrl . . . 177
Bevezet szavak A ma geolgija a holnaprt" cm konferencin elhangzott eladsok el . 193
Lszl KOVCS - Gbor HMOS - Jzsef CSICSK: Actual state of the site characterisation
programme of the Boda Siltstone Formation - A Bodai Aleurolit Formci telephely-
jellemzsi programjnak jelenlegi llapota 197
Wernt BREWITZ - Ulrich NOSECK: The long-term safety of underground waste repositories
- A key issue for research and development - Felsznalatti hulladktrolk hossztv
biztonsga - kutats s fejleszts 207
Mieke De CRAEN - Dominique DELLEUZE - Geert VOLCKAERT - Alain SNEYERS - Martin : U - T h
series disequilibrium studies on Boom Clay - A natural analogue of radionuclide
migration in argillaceous sediments - A nemegyenslyi U-Th sorozat tanulmnyozsa a
Boomi Agyagban - a radioaktv elemvndorls termszetes analgija agyagos ledkekben 219
Ion DURDUN - Cristian MRUNTEANU: Romanian LILW disposal - site selection, characterization
and investigation programme - Kis- s kzepes radioaktivits hulladklerak
Romniban - telephely kivlasztsi, jellemzsi s kutatsi program 229
Philippe LALIEUX: International co-operation regarding site characterisation and site evaluation
for geological repository systems for long-life radioactive waste - Hossz lettartam
radioaktv hulladkok fldtani trolrendszereinek telephely-jellemzsre s rtkelsre
vonatkoz nemzetkzi egyttmkds 239
Roma KANOPIENE - Vytautas MARCINKEVICIUS: Possibilities for developing deep radioactive
waste repository in Lithuania - Mlysgi radioaktv hulladktrol teleptsnek
lehetsgei Litvniban 251
Duke U. OPHORI: Simulating large scale groundwater flow for waste disposal purposes -
Nagylptk talajvzramls modellezse hulladkelhelyezsi clbl 263
Grant SHENG - Jzsef TTH: Using the Recharge Area "Concept as a strategy for siting
underground nuclear waste repositories - Az utnptldsi terlet koncepci (Recharge
Area Concept) stratgiai alkalmazsa felszn alatti radioaktv hulladktrol kutatsban . . . 275
BRDOSSY Gyrgy - FODOR Jnos - MOLNR Pter - TUNGLI Gyula: A bizonytalansg rtkelse
a fldtudomnyokban - The role and handling of uncertainty in the Earth's sciences . . . . 291
Hrek, ismertetsek - News and reviews 323
A magyar fldtani irodalom repertriuma 1999 sszelltotta: PIROS Olga - Bibliography of
geological publications in Hungary 1999. Compiled by Olga PIROS 337

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Fldtani Kzlny

Bulletin of the Hungarian Geological Society

A Magyarhoni Fldtani Trsulat folyirata

Vol. 130. No. 2.

Felels kiad Editor-in-charge

Fszerkeszt Editor-in chief

Technikai szerkesztk Technical editors

Szerkesztbizottsg Editorial board

Nyelvi lektor: Linguistic revision:

Tmogatk Foundation for the Geology of Hungary

A kziratokat az albbi Manuscripts to be sent to

Ftitkri jelents a Magyarhoni Fldtani

Tisztelt Kzgyls, Kedves Kollgk, Hlgyeim s Uraim!

A tavalyi kzgyls m g az n n e p i v esemnyeirl adott szmot a vissza

Tudomsul kell vennnk, hogy a hazai gazdasgi letben n e m csak az egykor

vizekrl, n e m tudom megllni, hogy irigykedve m e g n e llaptsam: a szomszdos

A k i e m e l k e d e n kzhaszn minstsnk birtokban krssel fordultunk a

Kiemelkeden kzhaszn tevkenysgnk

Az elz v h e z hasonlan 1999-ben is tbb pont tekintetben tettnk eleget a

r d e k b e n indtottuk. A minisztriumtl kapott vlasz szerint a geolgia

alapszelvnyek helyrelltst, illetve a Balaton s krnyezete fldtani jelleg

A Trsulat sszestett tagltszma a december vgi adatok szerint 1208 f, ami

Pnzgyi helyzetnkrl ezttal is csak ttekintleg kvnok szlni, kiemelve

1. bra. A Magyarhoni Fldtani Trsulat tagltszmnak alakulsa 1995-1999. kztt

2. bra. A Magyarhoni Fldtani Trsulat taglt

tmogats ( b e v t e l e i n k n e k m a j d n e m a fele), j o g i tagdj (a b e v t e l 1/5-e),

3. bra. A Magyarhoni Fldtani Trsulat

tudjuk, h o g y ebben az vben mr n e m mindegyikktl szmthatunk tmo

bevtel) s a Fldtani Termszetvdelmi N a p is (234 eFt bevtel). Szerny 100 eFt-

krsre sz nlkl mondott le vlasztmnyi tagsgrl, amit ha n e m tesz meg,

R e n d e z v n y e k b e n az elmlt v b e n sem s z k l k d t n k . K z t t k jeles

Az els kzponti szervezs rendezvnyre mjus 18-n kerlt sor. A vitafrum

rdekes s hasznos tletnek tnik a Geolgus-Geofizikus-Bnysz Vllalkozk

Terleti szervezetek rendezvnyei

Az albbiakban itt s a szakosztlyoknl ismertetsre kerl szmok kzl a

ALF BUD DD MO KD AS LF SG GSZ MKE OKK SR TUT

4. bra. A terleti szervezetek s tudomnyos szakosztlyok 1999. vi rendezvnyeinek szma.

mlyszinti rcvagyonrl meghirdetett eladls, a m i n e k oka az lehet, hogy az

Tudomnyos szakosztlyok rendezvnyei

A szakosztlyok sorban az egyik legkisebb ltszm (3. bra) az Agyagsvny

tekintem, ahol 2 4 , rszben nemzetkzileg is megmrettetett, sznvonalas posztert

7. bra. A terleti szervezetek s tudomnyos szakosztlyok 1999. vi rendezvnyeire es rsztvevk

az elejn jelzett szmtsi m d alapjn kapott rtkekben csak kzepes rtket

M i u t n a ciklus els kt ve az alapszably lland mdostsnak jegyben

8. bra. A terleti szervezetek s tudomnyos szakosztlyok 1999. vi rendezvnyein a nluk

n e v b e n jelzett m s o d i k k r d s k r r e koncentrlhatta. Sajt g y r e n d j n e k kidol

9. bra. A terleti szervezetek s tudomnyos szakosztlyok 1999. vi rendezvnyein elhangzott

ALF BUD DD MO KD AS LF SG QSZ MKE OKK SR

10. bra. A terleti szervezetek s tudomnyos szakosztlyok 1999. vi rendezvnyeire vettett

Az Ellenrz Bizottsg mind az elmlt vben, m i n d a ciklus m e g e l z kt

felvehetik. r m m e l j e l e n t h e t e m egyttal a Tisztelt Kzgylsnek, h o g y nincs

Tisztelettel k r e m a Tisztelt Kzgylst, h o g y a ftitkri jelentst elfogadni

cm konferencin elhangzott eladsok el

A Tudomny Vilgkonferencijhoz kapcsoldan - a Magyarhoni Fldtani

A konferencin elhangzott eladsok:

BRca, I.: Opening address

A szekci: Geological aspects of radioactive waste disposal

szekci: Protection of subsurface aquifers

szekci: Protection of subsurface aquifers

Actual state of the site characterisation

A Bodai Aleurolit Formci telephely-jellemzsi programjnak

Key words: Boda Siltstone Formation, site characterization, HLW, Hungary,

At o n time, t h e h i g h level radioactive waste ( H L W ) p r o d u c e d d u r i n g the