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Consumers in 2030: Forecasts and Projections For Life in 2030
Consumers in 2030: Forecasts and Projections For Life in 2030
Consumer Insight
January 2013
Consumers
in 2030
Forecasts and projections
for life in 2030
Introduction
individuals as powerful as
will continue to be relevant as we move further on
into the 21st century.
develop from the sexual revolution. We published a of debate around a future that has people, rather
Whats changed?
guide to contraceptives, and used groundbreaking
mystery shopper techniques to research an
investigation into marriage bureaux.
than organisations or government, at its heart.
2030 household
Weve used four main research strands to help us to think about life in 2030
As the research laid out in the following pages shows, consumers in Emerging economies overtake the developed world: by 2025, emerging and developing
economies are predicted to make up a greater share of global economic activity than advanced
The rising cost of living will be unequally
distributed across the age groups: young
people and adults under 50 will increasingly
2030 are likely to be living in a world where slow growth, resource economies. Economic development in emerging markets is expected to be particularly resource
intensive due to industrialisation and increased demand for grain.
struggle to meet costs.
Essential spending as share of total weekly
scarcity and rising commodity prices have become the norm. Share of global economic activity by country type, % of global GDP at current $US expenditure, By age of head of household
75%
Advanced economies* Emerging and developing economies* 1965 2010 2030
70%
Low levels of
Young workers will be hit hard by rising prices: single working-age 1960 disposable income:
adults will experience the greatest drop in the amount of money available
to spend on discretionary purposes between now and 2030.
289.8 while the UK economy 65%
20.3 38.7 45.3 55.1
Essential spending as percentage share of total weekly expenditure, 1965 is forecast to return to
By household composition
1970 2010 2030
295.7 weak growth in 2013, 60%
average household 79.7 61.3 54.7 44.9
1970 disposable weekly
344 incomes are likely 55%
1975 to remain below the
363.3 2008 peak of 605
for many years yet.
50%
1980 UK Average 2000 2013 2020 (forecast) 2030 (forecast) 45%
Adults with One or two 383.9 household weekly
children pensioners 1985 disposable income (),
*IMF definitions: Advanced comprises 34 countries, Emerging is 150 countries
real terms, 2010 prices 40%
385.1 Less
than 30 30-49 50-65
65 and
over
1990
457.2 Slow wage growth: Ongoing high unemployment and wage stagnation Lower spending on leisure: its likely that the rising cost of essentials
1995/6 means that wages in 2030 could still remain below the levels that were (food, housing, etc) over the next 20 years will squeeze out consumer
68% 50% 58% 71% 50% 60% 457 experienced by British workers in the 2000s.
UK unemployment rate (in green) and annual average change in
spending on recreation and culture.
Percentage of total expenditure of selected goods categories,
2000/1 total earnings (in pink) UK total, Nominal prices
534 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030
2005/6
579.3 1990 2000 17.7
12.3
Two working
Single 2010 Wages
Looking
9.6
age adults
working 578.4 for work
Wages 9.6
age adult Looking
2015 for work 9.8
561 Food and drink
10.3
2020 15.8
566.9 9.8% 7.1% 4.5% 5.5%
17.1
65% 52% 61% 69% 56% 66% 2025 2012 2030 17.7
577.1 Wages 23.9
agricultural products and industrial inputs are likely to see strong price 589.5 for work Wages 28.4
growth over the coming years. 7.6
6.2
200 8.3% 1.6% 3.4% 6.9%
Essential goods take up an increasing proportion of 5.8
IMF non-fuel commodity
consumer spending: our model sees the spend on essentials 5.8
price index (2005 = 100)
180 as a percentage of total expenditure rising from 56.8% of Clothing and
(in pink) and oil price, 5.5
spending in 2012 to 65.3% in 2030. Population ageing: the UKs ageing population will have an impact footwear
average of Brent, Dubai and 5.1
Percentage of essential* spending as a share of total on both government and consumer spending, as the proportion
160 West Texas Intermediate,
expenditure, Current prices, UK total of younger adults falls relative to the number of over 60s. 14.8
current $US (in blue)
Share of total population by age group
Forecast
15.1
140 65% 15-59 60+
Forecast 15.3
14.8
120 22.6% 23.2% 23.9% 25.1% 26.6% 15.9
60%
59.9% 59.2% 58% 56.7% 55.6% Transport
17.4
100 9.4
55%
10.4
80 11.5
50% 10.6
60
Recreation 9.3
and culture 7.9
45%
40 5.4
4.3
20 40% 3.2
4.4
2000
2005
2020
2030
2025
2010
1990
1980
1965
1970
2015
1995
1985
1975
2004
2008
1980
1996
1984
1988
2016
1992
2012
Life in 2030
So what will life be like for people in 2030? Over the following pages we
consider how social and economic trends will affect peoples everyday
lives, exploring the impact of demographic shifts, changes in the global
economy, and new ways of consuming and producing products.
Our data and social trend analysis shows that in percentage share of household spending on
2030, people in the UK could be living in a world essentials in the 20% of households with the lowest
where slow growth, resource scarcity and rising incomes and the 20% of households with the
commodity prices have become the norm; highest incomes was 5.8 percentage points. By 2010,
where demands on public finances will have this gap had grown to 6.4 percentage points, and by
been impacted by demographic shifts, and where 2030, our forecasts suggest that it could rise further
ongoing scandals such as MPs expenses, gas price to 7.4 percentage points. This trend is already visible
fixing and the rigging of the Libor rate have led to in figures from the Which? Quarterly consumer
a crisis of trust in institutions. report, which reveals that people in the lower two
income quintiles are increasingly dropping away
As well as these social and economic trends, from the rest of the income distribution, and being
technology will be revolutionising our homes, and the disproportionately impacted upon by rising food
way we run our lives. For example, increasing use of and fuel prices.
robotics in the service industry already familiar in the
form of self-service checkouts could fundamentally The impact of these trends on consumer wellbeing
change the nature of customer service, making are palpable. Our analysis of the BHPS and
personal human service the new First Class1. Understanding Society datasets shows that the
percentage of people in the second-lowest income
Similarly, innovations in healthcare, manufacturing group who think that they are living comfortably, fell
and energy generation look likely to take the from 69% in 2003 to 48% in 2010. Such a dramatic
personalisation of services to a new extreme: by 2030 fall is thrown into sharp relief by the satisfaction
we anticipate that 3D printing of products, medication levels of the highest-earning group, shifting by six
and food will all have hit the mainstream, and children percentage points from 88% in 2003 to 82% in 2010.
could be using energy stored in their trainers to power
computer games and access social media.
Population ageing
The Office for National Statistics predict that the UK
1
Mintel, Automatic for
the People
Key social trends population will reach 70 million by 2026, rising to
73.2 million in 20352. The population is also ageing,
with the median age rising from 39.7 in 2010, to 42.2
2
www.ons.gov.uk/ons/
rel/population-trends-rd/
Financial pressures by 2035. Despite an increase in the fertility rates
population-trends/ The numbers generated by our economic model over the past few years, the greatest increase in
no--145--autumn-2011/
suggest that by 2030, average weekly household numbers will be among the very old. Between 2010
index.html
3
www.ons.gov.uk/ons/ disposable income could be just 589, which is and 2035 the number of people aged over 85 will Despite an increase in the
rel/mro/news-release/
national-population-
below the 2008 peak of 605, and only just passing more than double, and the number aged over 95 fertility rates over the past
the 2012 level of 558.60. will more than quadruple3.
projections---2010-based-
-uk-population-projected-
few years, the greatest
to-hit-70m-by-2027/
national-population-
We could also see a substantial increase in the level Although fears have been raised about the impact increase in numbers will
of income inequality across the UK population. Our of having an increasingly large population of very
projections---2010-based.
html research shows that in 1980, the gap between the elderly people on the public purse, increases in be among the very old.
16
www.defra.gov.uk/environment/waste/
www.defra.gov.uk/files/env-waste-review-factsheet-
Which? has been conducting research across the UK, to 110613-households.pdf
find out what consumers think about the Future of Food. 17
www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/what_we_do/uk_
The rise of developing nations Closed-loop systems Watch out for our findings in early 2013. supply/energy_mix/renewable/feedin_tariff/feedin_
tariff.aspx
Over the next 17 years, our economic model Increased awareness of resource scarcity in 2030
forecasts that the global economic centre of gravity could lead governments and businesses to develop
will shift away from the UK and towards emerging large-scale resource management initiatives, making
and developing economies such as Brazil, Russia, concrete moves towards a closed-loop economy.
India and China (BRIC). During the 1990s and early In fact, this is already taking shape; over 40% of
2000s, the integration of emerging markets such household waste was recycled in England in 2010/11,
as China into global supply chains led to downward compared to 11% in 2000/0115. In 2011, the
pressure on costs, and lower prices for consumers Government Waste Review set out the aim of moving In the UK, the 2011 White Paper Water For Life
in the UK. Our data suggests that this era is now at towards a zero waste economy, defining this for
an end, as economic development in developing householders and businesses as a situation where:
reported that: In the future there is likely to be
nations leads to higher wages in China, and higher We reduce, reuse and recycle all we can, and throw less water available for people, businesses and
prices for the UK consumer. Extrapolating from the things away only as a last resort.16 the environment, concluding that: We may
IMFs World Economic Outlook data, we can see
that by 2025, the developing nations could have In 2030, restrictions and higher sustainability
need significant new water resources.
pushed all of the European countries out of the expectations are likely to make unsustainable
worlds five largest economies. Defined by the choices harder to find. This is already being seen
international Organisation for Economic with the phase-out of traditional light bulbs and
Co-operation and Development as all those living choice-editing by manufacturers and retailers.
in households with daily per capita incomes of The term choice editing traditionally refers to the
between USD10 and USD100 in PPP terms, the practice of quietly removing an unsustainable or
numbers of the global middle class are predicted unhealthy product from sale, and replacing it with
to reach 4.9 billion by 203011. a similar alternative. For example in the 1990s, B&Q
replaced much of their timber stock with FSC-certified
timber without telling consumers what they were
Resource scarcity doing. This tactic was, in practice, pretty much the
The growing global population and increased same as a ban, but without the need for legislation
competition from middle class people in the BRIC or the associated public outrage.
countries is likely to push up demand for and
therefore the cost of resources. McKinsey have
predicted an 80% increase in steel demand between
Microgeneration
2010 and 203012, and the 2011 Water Disclosure In energy, microgeneration is increasingly moving
Project conducted by Deloitte reports that demand towards the mainstream the Department of
for water will outstrip supply by 40% in 2030. Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has already
Emphasising the costs of delivering the used powers in the Energy Act 2008 to introduce
infrastructure needed to close this gap, Deloitte a system of feed-in tariffs to incentivise small-scale
suggests that, globally, it will cost as much as $50 (less than 5MW), low-carbon electricity generation17.
to $60 billion a year for 20 years13. In the UK, the However, at the moment, Which? has concerns that
2011 White Paper Water For Life reported that: the current policy fails to deliver value for money
In the future there is likely to be less water available for consumers. For microgeneration to really deliver
for people, businesses and the environment, by 2030, the government needs to ensure that
concluding that: We may need significant new consumers are adequately protected, and that
water resources.14 they get the advice and information they need.
12 Consumers in 2030
Life in 2030 Life in 2030
The changing nature of consumption comparable data began. This is likely to not only
impact on consumers purchasing habits, but also
harvesters are almost advanced enough to be
inserted into the body to power pace-makers,
to lead to shifts in spending behaviour. Indeed, such and a screening device for lung and breast
Changes in the cost and availability of consumer goods are shifts are already in evidence in areas vulnerable to cancer that can detect cancer cells on
price hikes; increases in the price of oil have already patients breath is currently awaiting
likely to be coupled with a shift in the way that people use led to a strong increase in the number of rail clinical trial28. Although many of
and buy products and services. journeys taken per household going up by 13.8%
between 2006/07 and 2010/11, and a decrease in
these medical advances could
solve previously intractable
the number of road miles covered by car going problems, they also open up a
down by 6.1% between 2007 and 2010. Rising new field of ethical dilemmas. For
essentials prices may also have an impact on example, a recent report on the UKs
One major shift will be in the relationship between found that travellers using the service in San peoples eating habits, potentially leading to an breast cancer screening programme
individuals and the organisations that provide Francisco had spent $56 million in the city from increase in levels of obesity. The Economist recently has found that while the programme
products and services. For example, the increasing June 2011 to May 201221. reported that sales of primary proteins and fruit and reduces the risk of dying from cancer
popularity of 3D printing suggests that consumers veg have decreased in the recession, while sales of by 20%, 19% of those women that
will increasingly be also acting as producers. Similarly, pizzas and ready meals are going up25. are found to have tumours are
peer-to-peer selling could become mainstream across
Home manufacturing over-diagnosed causing them to
sectors ranging from energy to the music industry. The popularisation of 3D printing and home undergo unnecessary treatment that
manufacturing already available to high-end
The end of the high street bank causes more harm than good29.
consumers is also likely to have a major impact The year 2030 could also see a move away from
Increases in the
Collaborative consumption on the way people consume. The 2030s will see the traditional banking as alternative lending schemes One area where better and cheaper price of oil have
In the context of increasing public awareness of development of small-scale, UK-based production fill the space where conventional forms of finance technology should have a definite already led to a
resource scarcity, collaborative consumption is houses that use 3D printer technologies to print have failed to deliver. The forms of alternative impact is in supporting people to
likely to become an increasingly important trend. household goods and spare parts on demand. In lending popular in 2030 are likely to evolve from become more aware of the factors
strong increase
Collaborative consumption is an umbrella term, 2013, the 3D printing scene is centred on a growing the three models that are experiencing a surge that influence their health. Over the in the number of
describing the growing tendency of people to use number of enthusiastic amateurs with open-source in popularity in 2012-13: credit unions, payday loan past few years the quantified self rail journeys taken
new technologies to facilitate sharing, bartering, 3D printers, who are experimenting with, not just 3D companies, and peer-to-peer lending platforms. As movement individuals monitoring
lending, trading, renting, gifting, and swapping18. As printing, but home laser cutting and sintering, CNC work by Which? has highlighted, each of these three their health with apps such as the
per household
the UK governments recent Buy Better Together machining and the use of other precision computer- models come with major health warnings. Despite iphone heart rate monitor has
community buying initiative and Which?s own Big controlled equipment. Laser sintering is the process this, low income growth coupled with an ongoing been gaining momentum30. By
Switch have shown, collaborative consumption can whereby objects are built up in a bed of powder crisis of trust in British banks, means that alternative 2030, with cheaper sensors and 23
http://www.guardian.
save people money, time and resources. Potentially, by a scanning laser beam that fuses tiny bits of banking is increasingly set to be a part of the better user interfaces, personal data co.uk/environment/2012/
it not only allows people to make money from things the powder together, one layer at a time22. CNC mainstream by 2030. is anticipated to be ubiquitous and may/18/3d-printers-food-
sustainable
they already have (for example, through AirBnB, machining is a development of CAD/CAM programs malleable, and genetic diseases 24
http://www.toptenz.
which allows people to rent out their homes to which allows the manufacturing process to be The financial model that we predict will experience could be detectable prenatally. net/top-10-ways-sci-fi-
holidaymakers, or the car-pool WhipCar), but offers highly automated, allowing people with the right the greatest surge in popularity to 2030 is peer-to- could-help-you-live-
1000-years.php
convenience (for example Street Bank19, an online equipment to produce highly complex goods by peer lending. In 2012, the rise of companies such This new availability of up-to-the- 25
http://www.economist.
service which allows community members to share simply downloading the appropriate program. By as Zopa and Funding Circle revealed that people minute personal health data is likely com/node/21557377
goods) cost effectiveness (for example Spotify20) and 2030, 3D printers could be commonplace, with the are increasingly comfortable using social networks to lead to the development of new
26
http://www.
prospectmagazine.
a sense of being part of a community. Collaborative ability to print everything from food23 to new human to make links between investors and borrowers, products and services which will co.uk/magazine/
consumption can also have a positive effect on local organs and bespoke medications24. relishing the opportunity to regain the lost social allow people to monitor their own show-me-the-money-
economies; recent research commissioned by AirBnB purpose of the UKs banks26. By 2030, lending health. Products designed to use personal-finance-
revolutiosam-knight/
Despite the potential impact of new models of across social networks could be the norm, with p2p this data to prevent illness may well 27
http://www.
production like 3D printers, by 2030, the share of lenders competing with mainstream banks because become commonplace in wealthier prospectmagazine.
consumer spending taken up by essential goods their low overheads mean that they can turn a profit homes, while less well-off households co.uk/magazine/
show-me-the-money-
such as food, utilities and housing is expected to on much smaller sums of money. As a recent article may become eligible for provision
Which? works for you: reach 65.3% higher than the figure in 1964 when in Prospect pointed out, banks normally dont make on the NHS. More worrying, however,
personal-finance-
revolutiosam-knight/
a profit on personal loans of less than 7,000, but is the impact that health data may
28
http://www.dailymail.
With our Big Change campaign we are calling for
co.uk/health/
a Big change to the culture are practices of banking. the average Zopa loan is 4,80027. have on insurance provision: more article-2159088/
We think that: 18
www.collaborativeconsumption.com/the-movement/ accurate information may lower Breathalyzer-smells-
Bankers should put customers first, not sales 19
www.streetbank.com/splash 20www.sparkboxtoys.com/ premiums for some, but there is a cancer-breath.html
Bankers must meet professional standards and
21
www.forbes.com/sites/tomiogeron/2012/11/09/study-airbnb-had- Healthy living risk that those with genetic problems
29
http://www.guardian.
56-million-impact-on-san-francisco/ co.uk/society/2012/
comply with a code of conduct 22
http://blog.makezine.com/2012/02/01/an-open-source-laser- In 2030, advances in industrial biotechnology and or a history of illness may be oct/30/breast-cancer-
Bankers must be punished for mis-selling and sintering-3d-printer/ nanotechnology are likely to be radically disrupting compelled to disclose information screenings-damaging-
bad practice. 23
www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/may/18/3d-printers-food- women?intcmp=239
sustainable 24 www.toptenz.net/top-10-ways-sci-fi-could-help-you-live-
the interface between people and technology. that compromises their ability to get 30
http://quantifiedself.
1000-years.php Indeed, this is already the case: in 2013 energy a good deal. com/
14 Consumers in 2030
Products and services we could be using in 2030
we could be using in 2030 The Which? Consumer Principles are eight key principles that we
consider when were assessing consumer detriment. They help us
to make sure that we are looking into the issues that really matter,
In the section below we lay out five products or services that
and provide a framework for us to consider potential solutions.
consumers might be buying in 2030.
What kinds of consumer detriment might people be facing in 2030?
H
ere, we present five imagined products or services that
draw together some ideas about what people might be Access Consumer influence and Redress
buying in 2030. Are the right infrastructures in responsibility How do we ensure that consumers
place to mitigate commodity price Distributed manufacture and micro buying products and services via
Rather than acting as concrete predictions, these products explore the fluctuations? generation technologies mean that peer-to-peer networks have access
implications of the trends outlined in the previous sections. By thinking How do we manage water scarcity consumers are becoming producers to suitable redress?
about the new consumer goods and services that could be being to ensure that all consumers have too. What does this mean for the How do we ensure that consumer
marketed to people by 2030, we are trying to understand and to access to clean, drinkable water? relationship between consumers and legislation protects consumers in the
pre-empt the new areas of detriment that individuals could be facing Do consumers have universal government and big organisations? Open Data market?
in the next 17 years. access to up-cycling and re-cycling Can we factor in life-cycle criteria
technologies, and know where to go to product ratings?
Building on the theme of home life in 2030, we have considered how the to recycle old goods? How far are consumers themselves Safety
emerging social and economic trends outlined above might interact with With NHS services focused on responsible for recycling and re-using What are the implications of
developments in design and technology. prevention, are policymakers doing old consumer products? distributed manufacturing for
What consumer needs and issues may exist in 2030 that dont enough to empower individuals to enforcing safety standards?
exist in 2013? manage their health effectively? Do new technologies such as
What are the opportunities for action in 2013 that would improve In a landscape where private and Information and education bio-tech maintain rigorous safety
conditions for consumers over the long-term? alternative health solutions proliferate, How do we ensure transparency standards?
how do we ensure that quality of supply chains? Should there be How do we ensure that personal
The process of developing these products has been an exploratory remains key, and that individuals have mandatory reporting of non-financial health technologies provide up-to-
exercise to consider how current trends might play forwards. Considering equal access to the highest quality impacts for companies and product date and accurate advice, and use
these products in the light of the Which? Consumer principles medical care? manufacturers? personal health data correctly?
allows us to think about the future in a systematic way, and to Do all consumers have access to
act on consumers interests in the long term. the information that they need to
Choice choose the right private and public Value for money
Are traditional finance products services for them? How do we balance large-scale
actually offering consumers the Should Which? consider how easy sustainability options with the need to
services and security that they need products are to re/upcycle as part of give consumers value for money?
Which? works for you: (for example, opportunities to invest our product ratings? How do we ensure that tighter
Many of the products on the market in for retirement in a low-growth, high budgets dont mean that only the
2030 will draw on the new availability of inflation economy)? affluent can afford to buy sustainable
machine readable personal data be that Are the big six energy companies Quality products?
health data, energy usage, or personal
going far enough to help consumers How do we ensure that products
spending and consumption data. Which?
manage their rising utilities costs? and services transferred via peer-to-
is a strong supporter of the governments
current Open Data initiative, but we have peer networks are safe and of
found that privacy and data accuracy appropriate quality?
are major concerns for consumers. In Does resource scarcity mean that
our research, we found that 19% of those existing materials will be replaced by
individuals who had requested to see new and potentially lower quality
a copy of their personal data held by a materials?
company (a subject access request) had How do we ensure that personal
found it to be inaccurate. health data is up to date and
accurate?
Physical outdoor
activity
Rechargeable Kids system
The Rechargeable Kids system enables children to power their
gadgets and online games through physical outdoor activity.
It encourages them to balance time spent playing in virtual
worlds with time spent playing in the real one.
Sports shoe
captures energy in How does the Rechargeable more physical activity into daily life is fuelling a
new age of ambient energy.
3 different ways Kids system work?
Super Genius Trainers are the most important and
popular kit in the Rechargeable Kids system; they
Could this exist in 2013?
encourage children to build their physical strength Researchers at Princeton University have created
to match the mental workout they get playing virtual a flexible material that harvests record amounts of
games. Each trainer generates and stores power energy when stressed.
for electronic games, media and other bedroom But energy harvesting technologies are in
gadgets. The more active kids are in their trainers, their infancy; much further research, testing and
the more power they generate and the more they development is needed to be able to generate and
Distributes are able to run their devices off-grid at home. store significant power for the Rechargeable Kids
electricity at system to be viable.
home Children recharge their trainers by playing, jumping The technology particularly the multichannel
and running around outside. The trainers harvest battery is not yet available. Prototypes harvest energy
energy in every possible way, even from the heat from a single source rather than multiple ones.
generated as kids feet get hot playing sports. They
also capture and upload data into virtual games
like how fast and how far theyve run. The family
Future Which?
shoe rack doubles-up as an electricity distribution What are the product testing criteria Which?
hub so kids just place the trainers on the rack and will be using in 2030?
their energy and information transfers to their How will resource scarcity impact on the price
bedroom. The one drawback is that they have to and functionality of tech products in 2030?
make sure the trainers dont get too muddy as this Should new tech products make it easier for
interferes with the shoes ability to convert sunlight consumers to reuse, recycle or upcycle products?
into electricity. What might be the health effects of a 24/7
always on culture?
Whats the demand for What changes in the energy market might
consumers need, to deal with rising fuel costs?
Rechargeable Kids in 2030?
Energy use and generation are intertwining with a
Powers your modern twist. Consumers are tired of being on the Consumer experience in 2030: the Jones family
gadgets and receiving end of gas and electricity price hikes.
Serena and Mo Jones feel like theyre constantly battling with their
games Rising and volatile oil prices have made even super kids about the excessive amount of time they spend playing computer
energy efficient homes expensive to heat and light. games in their bedrooms. At first it seemed wrong to ration the kids
Daily commuting and holidays have shot up in price enjoyment according to how much energy theyd built up using their
too. Such a gloomy outlook has drastically improved Super Genius Trainers, but their youngest, in particular, seems calmer
the performance capabilities of energy harvesting and is definitely sleeping better since they bought them. The final seal
technologies and low energy devices. These days, of approval came when they overheard their youngest trying to work
energy is viewed as an opportunity not a cost. Its no out whether he could run for longer by eating a chocolate bar or a
longer a product; its something thats all around us if sandwich. The trainers really are super if they can get Sam to eat
only we can tap into it. The greater value placed on more at meal times and snack less!
exercise and stress relief and on trying to squeeze
Crowd House Mortgages Individuals Register with Choose a home- Crowd House ...and ensures that
want to invest Crowd House buying team to facilitates a formal investors are repaid,
Crowd House Mortgages enable teams of home-buyers to take out and get advice invest in loan agreement... with interest
a loan and support one another to make repayments. It is a product
Buyers
offered by Crowd Houses; a virtual service that gives people the
confidence, facilities and insurance to invest in, and borrow from
one another on a long-term basis.
How does Crowd Houses work? Individuals Buy an allotment Pitch to investors for
form a home- of public land a mortgage that will
Crowd House Mortgages are a collaborative route Crowd Houses retains the deeds to buying teams buying team as collateral buy the whole team
to home ownership. Both investors and borrowers homes, making them tenants until theyve fully their own house
know one another through social media and this repaid the loan. If the teams hit difficulties in making
transparency enables long-lasting relationships. repayments, Crowd Houses liaises with investors
Crowd Houses receives a management fee for and works with them to try to resolve the situation.
the services it offers to match make and support As a last resort, it will repossess and sell their homes.
investors and borrowers. There is complete transparency between investors
and borrowers.
A group of young people and families form a Crowd House owns Buying team receives
home-buying team or cooperative. This enables Whats the demand for Crowd their homes until deeds to their homes
when they have fully
them to pool their resources and support each the loan is repaid
other to make regular mortgage repayments in
House Mortgages in 2030? repaid the mortgage
a challenging employment market. In 2030, traditional mortgages are inaccessible for
many people. As trust in governments and financial
Through its novel allotment scheme Crowd Houses institutions goes down; as consumers get
buys parcels of public land on behalf of buying teams. accustomed to job insecurity and lower incomes; as
These allotments act as collateral to enable teams to housing costs rise; and as the bank of Mum and Dad
raise a loan from hundreds of small investors. They runs low on funds, consumers are seeking new
improve the teams credit rating because they must routes to affordable credit. At the same time, investors
pool their resources to buy an allotment, which want to find ways of beating inflation and reducing
vouches for their ability to work as a unit and their their exposure to risk.
trust in one another. They are also insurance for
investors as they can easily be sold to another As consumers online and physical lives become
buying team to plug any shortfall in repayments. blurred all sorts of collaborations are springing up
that match borrowers and investors in novel ways.
This is spurred by the huge amounts of information
people can find out about each other. For example,
immersive technologies and downloadable learning
packages are even connecting peoples minds to the
Future Which?
Consumer experience in 2030: the Taylor family internet, meaning consumers can intimately know
Chloe Taylor is desperate to buy her own flat. She doesnt see much people theyve never met. Some of the questions provoked by this concept for Which?
point in holding cash savings as they get quickly eroded by inflation and in 2030 are:
thinks rising house prices and rental incomes make bricks and mortar a What new forms of oversight and regulation might be
good investment. Chloe has no qualms about team investing with her
Could this exist in 2013? needed to give customers assurance in peer-to-peer lending?
friends to buy a home. She trusts them far more than she trusts financial Most of the components already exist in different How will consumers ensure the data that enables them to
institutions, and her friends higher salaries will give her access to a more formats, for example, housing cooperatives and assess potential borrowers credit worthiness is reliable and
affordable interest rate on a loan. Redundancy is common and temporary micro-finance initiatives . up to date?
contracts can be suddenly withdrawn so teaming-up with friends means But lack of information and weak social ties with How will the development of alternative banking models
you can support one another to make repayments when times get tough.
people through online networks mean there is not impact on the services offered by traditional banks?
yet enough strength in online relationships today.
Scan your
existing items
Mo.Mo. Molecule Scanner
The mo. mo. is a handheld molecule scanner that tells you which
of your old belongings could be transformed into something new
using a 3D printer, as part of a service that enables you to reinvent
consumer goods, rather than replace them.
Send them
to 3D How does the 3D fabrication quality control issues. Most families use local
3D fabrication services because the quality and
fabrication lab service work? diversity of the products is so much higher than
The Mo.Mo. scans objects to identify what materials printing items on a basic home printer. A large
they contain and offers ideas for what they can be pharmaceutical company has just launched an
transformed in to using a high-tech 3D fabrication organ printing service to ease the shortage of
laboratory. Customers pay a quarterly subscription replacement kidneys and other organs for the
that includes a set number of prints at the 3D ageing population. The idea of brand new, pristine
fabrication service and all the technologies they organs available on demand seems too good to be
need; like a digital platform that allows them to true for sceptical older generations, but expensive
select additional materials from an online library healthcare costs are making this an attractive
Your choice and to choose, adapt and personalise 3D design proposition none-the-less.
is produced patterns. They send their complete order to the
3D fabrication lab, including any objects they
want to transform, and receive them 14 days later.
Could this exist in 2013?:
Scientists at MIT can currently take basic
What demand is there for 3D chemical elements from the natural world: carbon,
calcium, silicon, zinc, and mix them with harmless
fabrication in 2030? viruses whose genes have been reprogrammed
3D personalisation is the next fashion frontier. to promote random variations. The resulting new
Every teenager wants a 3D printer which means, materials include plastic.
as a BBC article in 2029 reported: Theyre breeding But:
like rabbits. 3D printers are reproducing by printing The technology isnt developed enough to scan
more 3D printers. On one hand this is speeding their items although techniques such as crystallography
evolution, but on the other it is creating significant can identify molecules by their structure.
3D printing is still in its early evolution and
isnt widespread enough for a market to exist
for the mo. mo.
How does the 100% clean able to vary the size and performance of the
1% water tariff work? machine according to their needs helps households Future Which?
save money by managing their energy use too.
Water companies are searching for ways to cut Some of the questions provoked by this
water demand to release pressure on water supplies concept for Which? in 2030 are:
and keep costs down. Theyre fighting a losing battle
Whats the demand for the What are the implications for consumer
against the poor condition of the plumbing in the 100% clean, 1% water tariff choice if utilities companies begin offering
products as part of their contracts?
older housing stock, and the very slow shift in in 2030? How will growing resource scarcity
attitudes to water use.
In 2030, saving water has gone from being seen as change the way that consumers value and
Introducing super-efficient washing machines to totally unnecessary to smart and desirable. Water use resources?
households is a quick fix. They are offering water costs are high and increasing, particularly in the
customers the opportunity to switch from their water-stressed South East. Combined with the wide
traditional water tariff to one that includes a very rollout of water meters, this has made households
high-tech washing machine, and cuts the total cost keen to control their water costs.
of doing laundry. When they sign up, customers
existing appliances are replaced with a high-tech Theres an appetite for ways of saving water and
machine that gets their clothes just as clean while money that dont require sacrifice including big
using dramatically less water. The exchange value up-front costs like buying new appliances.
of their old appliance is credited to their account. Consumers relish long baths and hot showers
and are investing more in the look and feel of their
The tariff covers all the services households need bathrooms than ever before. Theres a whole lot
from the machine itself, to repairs and maintenance, more going on behind the scenes too, to conserve,
to the water use. Water customers lease their filter, capture and reuse the water.
washing machine, which means they can upgrade
to a smaller or larger version every five years. Being
Could this exist in 2013?:
Demand is currently lacking because we are in
a period of relatively low water rates and very rare
Consumer experience in 2030: the Jones family water shortages. Water companies have
The ancient plumbing in Serena and Mos rented house desperately needs experienced a period of relatively high ground water
upgrading. Their finances are seriously tight so saving money on basics like
levels and predictable precipitation.
water, rent, electricity and travel, matters. Using their water meter, theyve
The business case for substantial investment in
taken all the little, low-cost steps they can to conserve water. When their
water company wrote to them offering a water-saving tariff that would water infrastructures is only just starting to emerge.
dramatically cut their water consumption without having to get their
landlords permission, they jumped at it. The water used in laundry is a
significant chunk of their water bill and they certainly cant afford to buy
a high-tech washing machine outright. The idea of a washing machine for
life that saves water and can be upgraded over time, and move with them
if they move to a larger house, seems like a no-brainer.
Next steps
Following the publication of this paper, well be discussing our
findings at a series of workshops with internal and external
stakeholders in 2013.
This process will allow us to draw out the implications of our findings
for consumer policy and broader policy issues over the next
17 years.