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Kirkegaard 2014 - Crime, Income, and Employment Among Immigrant Groups in Norway and Finland
Kirkegaard 2014 - Crime, Income, and Employment Among Immigrant Groups in Norway and Finland
Kirkegaard 2014 - Crime, Income, and Employment Among Immigrant Groups in Norway and Finland
Keywords: National IQ, intelligence, group differences, country of origin, Norway, Finland, Denmark,
immigration, crime, spatial transferability hypothesis, income, employment, educational attainment,
general socioeconomic factor, Islam, method of correlated vectors
1 Introduction
Recent studies show that criminality and other socioeconomic traits such as educational attainment
among immigrant groups is predictable from their country of origin[1, 2, 3, 4]. This study attempts
to replicate and generalize these findings.
The theoretical impetus for testing country-level predictors2 is the spatial transferability hypothesis.[5]
In brief, it proposes that 1) a countrys performance on a variety of metrics is due to some degree to
the psychological makeup of its inhabitants; 2) people retain their psychological attributes to some
degree when they migrate; and hence 3) the psychological attributes of groups determine to some
degree their relative performance on a variety of socioeconomic variables, such as crime, educational
attainments, income, and employment rate, in the countries that receive them.
For instance, when people from a poorer country move to a wealthier country, they will tend to
be relatively poor in that country as well. This is because part of the reason the country is poor to
begin with is that the people living there are low (or high) in the relevant behavioral traits. When
they move to a new country, they will generally still be low in the relevant behavioral traits, and
this will cause them to be relatively poor in that country as well. This is of course still allowing for
other causes (e.g. culture or religion people tend to bring with them) as well as improvements on
an absolute scale. Somalis living in Denmark are far richer than those who have stayed behind in
1
Department of Culture and Society, University of Aarhus. Corresponding author: emil@emilkirkegaard.dk
2
A note about terminology. predictor is used here to mean the same as independent variable. No causality is
implied, merely linguistic convenience.
Somalia, but they are nonetheless poorer than ethnic Danes, just as Somalia is poorer as a whole
than Denmark. Note also that the hypothesis does not specify why these traits tend to be preserved.
Both genetic and non-genetic models are possible.
The most obvious way of testing the spatial transferability hypothesis involves looking at immigrant
performance on a variety of measures grouped by country of origin, and then checking how predictable
this performance is from country-level variables such as national IQ and national prevalence of Islam.
In this study I explore a number of datasets in this fashion.
Figure 1: Violent crime in Norway and Finland by country of origin. From [6]
Figure 2: Property crime (larceny) in Norway and Finland by country of origin. From [6]
These findings indicate that people from the same areas of origin are similarly disposed to criminal
behavior in Norway and Finland.
4 Predictive analyses
I did all analyses with R.9
The primary question was whether crime was predictable from country-level variables as previously
found. To test this, I used the following predictors in a correlation analysis:
Lynn and Vanhanens national IQs with changes based on the work of Jason Malloy. When a
value is changed, it is noted in the datafile.[8, 9]
Findings of note include: Violent crime is easier to predict than property crime, just as in the
Danish dataset.[1] The poor predictive ability of Altinok with the crime and income variables seems
to be due to sampling error (Ns 13-14). The educational attainment variable which includes only
large samples (Tert. Ed. Att. Big) has higher correlations than the one with smaller samples too.
This is probably because the smaller ones introduce sampling error. Islam is a better predictor of
female unemployment than of male, which may be related to the role of women in Islam.
The intercorrelations between predictors is shown in Section 11.3 in the Appendix. IQ, Altinok,
logGDP and international S have high intercorrelations, with a minimum of .72 and a mean of .84.
Islam correlates weakly to moderately with the others (-.14 to -.43, mean -.29).
Surprisingly, even though there are problems with small sample sizes of the predictive correlations
and the length of the vectors (N=9), the results strongly suggest that what is well-predicted by one
predictor is also well-predicted by other predictors, no matter which two were compared. The mean
abs. r=.92.
5 A general socioeconomic factor among immigrant groups
in Norway
Similarly to my previous study of immigrant groups in Denmark[3], I wanted to investigate the
possibility of a general socioeconomic factor at the group level (S factor).[12] To do this, I used all
the variables concerning Norway except for the educational attainment with smaller groups to avoid
duplicating variables.
For the above reasons, I used four methods for handling missing cases: 1) complete cases only
(N=15), 2) imputing10 data in cases with 1 missing value (N=18), 3) imputing data in cases with 2
or fewer missing values (N=26), 4) imputing data in cases with 3 or fewer missing values (N=67).
Table 4 shows descriptive statistics for each dataset. The imputed datasets are similar to both the
full datasets and the complete cases although there were changes in both the skew and kurtosis.
10
I used the VIM package 4.00. The irmi() function imputes values.[17] I used the default settings. http://cran.r-
project.org/web/packages/VIM/index.html
Var name Dataset n mean sd min max skew kurtosis
Violent crime Full 26 1.31 0.87 0.2 3.2 0.55 -0.83
Complete cases 15 1.41 0.99 0.2 3.2 0.39 -1.25
Impute 1 18 1.33 0.93 0.2 3.2 0.57 -0.94
Impute 2 26 1.28 0.81 0.2 3.2 0.7 -0.27
Impute 3 67 1.23 0.63 0.2 3.2 1.05 1.41
Larceny Full 26 0.77 0.56 0.1 2 0.56 -1.09
Complete cases 15 0.78 0.55 0.2 1.6 0.38 -1.74
Impute 1 18 0.72 0.53 0.1 1.6 0.55 -1.42
Impute 2 26 0.69 0.56 -0.29 1.96 0.62 -0.58
Impute 3 67 0.69 0.34 0.1 1.6 0.71 0.19
Tert. ed. att. Full 67 0.12 0.08 0.01 0.31 0.42 -0.91
Complete cases 15 0.1 0.07 0.01 0.23 0.39 -1.32
Impute 1 18 0.1 0.07 0.01 0.23 0.5 -1.12
Impute 2 26 0.09 0.07 0.01 0.24 0.75 -0.63
Impute 3 67 0.12 0.08 0.01 0.31 0.42 -0.91
Unemployment, men Full 120 7.05 4.18 1.38 22.08 1.26 1.69
Complete cases 15 7.4 5.36 2.68 22.08 1.38 1.18
Impute 1 18 7.31 4.89 2.68 22.08 1.57 2.16
Impute 2 26 6.88 4.3 2.66 22.08 1.8 3.72
Impute 3 67 6.81 4.11 1.66 22.08 1.39 2.18
Unemployment, women Full 120 7.5 4.97 1.32 31.82 1.92 5.11
Complete cases 15 8.9 6.2 1.98 22.42 0.83 -0.58
Impute 1 18 8.17 5.93 1.9 22.42 1.03 -0.04
Impute 2 26 7.4 5.25 1.56 22.42 1.3 1.14
Impute 3 67 7.41 5.39 1.32 31.82 1.97 5.23
Income Full 23 79.86 14.58 53.25 108.25 -0.01 -0.92
Complete cases 15 78.78 14.78 53.25 108.25 0.19 -0.78
Impute 1 18 82.4 16.3 53.25 112.29 0.11 -0.95
Impute 2 26 79.09 13.9 53.25 108.25 0.13 -0.75
Impute 3 67 81.71 13.86 31.96 108.25 -0.76 0.95
KMO tests show that all datasets are suitable to factor analysis, KMOs .68-.75. Note that the
method of imputation used is probabilistic, i.e. does not result in the same imputation every time.
Therefore, any researcher who replicates the analyses will find that the numbers deviate somewhat
from the shown results. The KMO values were always around these values in my tests.
Table 5: Measures of general factor strength. The cognitive and personality data is from Revelle
and Wilt (2013)[21], the international S factor data is from Kirkegaard (2014)[12], and the Danish
comparison data is from a reanalysis of the datasets from Kirkegaard and Fuerst (2014)[3] presented
in the next section.
The data makes it clear that the S factors at the group-level among immigrants in Norway and
Denmark are very strong, even compared to the international S factor and the general factor of
cognitive ability (g) in 5 classic datasets. The imputation of data has little effect on the measures of
general factor strength.
The correlations are even closer to unity than they are in the Norwegian data. The mean abs.
r=.97. This is probably because the error sources are smaller in these data.
Table 8: Correlation matrix of predictor variables and S factor scores in Denmark (with imputed
values) and the four Norwegian datasets with varying amounts of imputation.
The results indicate that S factor scores are about equally predictable by predictor values in
the full Danish and Norwegian datasets. The size of the correlation decreases with the amount of
imputation and increasing sample size. This may be because the imputation introduces error or that
the correlations are artificially high due to sampling error. The only discrepancy is the predictive
power of the National S (.54 vs. .72). I dont have any good guess for why this is.
Table 9: Results from method of correlated vectors applied to the S factor in Norway and Denmark.
Note that Islam prevalence has been reversed because it is negatively related to the S factor.
In every case, the result is close to unity. Strong correlations can result from nonlinearity in the
data, so I examined the scatterplots. However, they were all very linear.
9 Discussion
The simple predictive analyses give results similar to those found earlier. They serve as a successful
replication and generalization to two new countries.
The analyses of general factor strength show that the local S factors are generally very strong,
surpassing even the g factor and the international S factor. This is due in part to the grouped nature
of the data as group correlations tend to go towards 1 when there arent sampling errors or a
non-linear relationship.[31]
Surprisingly, the analysis of the predictor vectors show very high near unity intercorrelations.
The results were even stronger in the reanalyzed Danish data, which makes it probable that the
somewhat lower correlations in the Norwegian data are due to statistical artifacts. I interpret this
as showing that predictors are very general in their predictive ability. In accordance with Occams
Razor, causal theories of these correlations should be similarly general, not specific.
Applying the method of correlated vectors showed that the relationships between the socioeconomic
variables and the predictor variables were driven by the latent trait (S factor), not the remaining
variance (correlations near unity).
Generally the results strongly confirm the spatial transferability hypothesis.[5]
Limitations include the small sample sizes and the lack of adjustment for age and sex in some of
the variables. This probably introduces some bias in an unknown direction. Note however that the
Danish data is age-controlled, and yet the results are very similar to the Norwegian ones, showing
that bias due to age is unlikely to be a large source of error.
10 Supplementary material
All datasets and source code are available in the submission thread at the Open Differential Psychology
forum. Most of the data used in the study can be found in version 1.5 extra of the Worldwide
Megadataset.
The appendix contains a list of S scores by group in Norway and Denmark.
References
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11 Appendix
11.1 S factor scores by country
Variable name
All.crime.age.15.19
All.crime.age.20.29
Income.15.19
Income.20.29
Income.30.39
Income.40.49
Income.50.59
Income.60
Basic.school.15.19
Basic.school.20.29
Basic.school.30.39
Basic.school.40.49
Basic.school.50.59
Basic.school.60plus
Long.tert.edu.20.29
Long.tert.edu.30.39
Long.tert.edu.40.49
Long.tert.edu.50.59
Long.tert.edu.60plus
Social.benefits.16.19
Social.benefits.20.29
Social.benefits.30.39
Social.benefits.40.49
Social.benefits.50.59
Social.benefits.60plus
The low correlations between Islam and the others is not due to sampling fluctuation. Ns
from 116 to 198. The full correlation matrix can be found in the supplementary material correla-
tions Norway2014.xlsx.