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Colorado's Sleeping Giant - Centrist Project Institute
Colorado's Sleeping Giant - Centrist Project Institute
Colorado's Sleeping Giant - Centrist Project Institute
Overview
Key Insights
Methodology
Introduction
Colorado Independent Voters
Dissatisfied with Governance
Disillusioned by Both Parties
Centrist, Swing Voters
Overview
A majority of Colorado voters (53%) believe the two major parties
are not working together well in the state legislature to solve
problems facing Colorado with 71% placing blame for partisan
gridlock on both Democrats and Republicans.
3. Single-issue reform voters. For 28% of voters, the single most important criteria
in evaluating candidates in the next election will be their ability to break through
the political gridlock and influence of special interests to solve problems.
Combined, these insights paint a portrait of an electorate that is restive for a viable
alternative to both Democrats and Republicans in 2018. Indeed, 48% of voters said that
electing independents to the state legislature would improve how the government
worked while only 5% said it would make things worse.
Methodology
The Centrist Project Institute a non-partisan, non-profit
organization that researches barriers to voting, running for and
serving in elected office by independent voters and candidates
carried out the survey between August 21 and September 10, 2017.
New voter registrations indicate that Coloradans are registering unaffiliated at over
twice the rate as they are with a major party.2 Between January and October 2017, the
Colorado Secretary of State reported 58,478 additional active independent voters
while Republicans lost nearly 3,400 voters and Democrats lost nearly 600 voters
statewide.
Yet, despite being the largest and fastest growing segment of the electorate, there is
not a single independent among the 100 members of the Colorado state legislature. In
fact, there is not a single independent on record as ever having won a seat in the
legislature in the history of the state.3
1
Party Registration Status; Colorado Secretary of State; October 1, 2017
2
A Surge in unaffiliated voters helps set a new record in Colorado; Colorado Politics; August 15, 2017
3
Election Results Archive; Colorado Secretary of State
However, if credible candidates with a support structure were to run for state
legislature in 2018, to what extent would they find support among the
electorate?
To answer that question, we surveyed more than 2,000 likely voters across the state to
find out:
A majority of all voters (53%), and an When these voters were asked which
Both parties care more about winning elections than 60% 81%
getting things done.
Both parties care more about serving their special 55% 75%
interests than the people.
In open responses to the question of why they are independent, unaffiliated voters
most frequently cited reasons included:
Although some political observers and political scientists argue that independents are
closet partisans who consistently vote for one party or another4, the survey found that
three quarters of independents (75%) alternate between parties on their ballot. Just 3%
reported only voting for one party.
4
he Partisans in the Closet; By Alan Abramowtiz in Politico Magazine; January, 2014
T
While there is far wider ideological diversity among independents than either
Democrats or Republicans, a plurality of independents (36%) identify as
moderate/centrist; and just 10% of independents describe themselves as either very
conservative or very liberal/progressive. Roughly the same share of independents say
they are conservative (21%) as liberal/progressive (20%).
Overall, 85% of voters indicated they Among those who would definitely
While some political observers claim that independent candidates would draw
disproportionately from one party or another5, the survey found virtually equal support
for independents among voters regardless of their major party identification or
ideology.
Even among voters who said they only voted for Democrats or Republicans on their
ballot, three quarters (74%) indicated they would consider voting for an independent.
This reflects findings elsewhere that growing partisanship in the electorate is more a
function of a dislike of the other party rather than a love of ones own.6
5
he Midterm Election (Spoilers) By Nora-Biette-Timmons; The Atlantic; November, 2014
T
6
he Partisan Divide on Political Views Grows Even Wider Pew Research Center; October, 2017
T
Further, 37% of voters who indicated they would not consider voting for an independent
also said they would change their mind if the candidate from the party they would
typically vote for had no chance of winning.
Reform Voters
When considering who they will support in the next election, a significant
segment of the electorate expressed interest in reform-minded candidates.
For 28% of voters, a candidates ability to break through the political gridlock and
special interest dysfunction in government to solve problems is more important than
their having specific policy proposals on pressing issues like transportation and
education or having matching views on hot-button issues like guns and abortion.
This segment of the electorate may be considered single-issue reform voters who are
more interested in candidates who can fix the political system than candidates who
have a particular political agenda.
Getting government to work in the interest of the people, rather than parties or special
interests, is the most salient issue for a broad swath of the electorate including a
more than a quarter of Democrats (25%) and Republicans (27%) and more than a third
of independents (37%).
What are voters top criteria for evaluating candidates in the next election?
Candidates who can break through the political gridlock and 28%
special interest dysfunction in government to solve problems
In open responses, voters described what they were looking for in independent
candidates. In over a quarter of responses, voters expressed a desire for independent
candidates to represent a collaborative and constructive approach to governance.
As one voter said in an open response: [Independents] don't stand a chance to win. If
they did, I would vote for them. Added another: They don't have a chance, even if I agree
with their issues.
Of the various reasons why someone might not support an independent candidate,
voters fear that they might waste their vote or spoil the election was a top concern.
I dont think they could be effective in office since the 16% 31%
legislature is controlled by parties.
It is important to note that when voters who said they are open to voting for
independent candidates were asked if they would still consider voting that way even if
it risked electing your least preferred candidate the vast majority (68%) said they
would stick by their decision. This included two thirds of Democrats (64%) and
In other words, the presence of the largest potential obstacle facing independent
candidates being perceived as a spoiler only caused the proportion of voters who
said they were open to voting for independents to reduce from 85% to 63%, still a
near-supermajority of voters.
In open responses, voters expressed a strong desire for independent candidates to truly
be different than major party candidates.
When asked why they might not vote for an independent, some voters replied:
Being too partisan. Them running as independent but with the same views as
the two parties.
Candidates that represent too much of the status quo. I want someone who's
not afraid to be out there on different platforms than we're used to.
Came from political background; not someone that was schooled in a tradition
of systematic problem solving or critical thinking.
Someone who seems like theyre using a different name for the same thing; too
similar to either party.
There is little doubt, based on this polling, that this coalition has
the potential to carry an independent candidate to victory
especially if the candidate is viewed as a person of integrity and
is perceived as viable by voters.
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Nick Troiano
Executive Director
nick@centristprojectinstitute.org
970-283-7385