ris012017 Availabilty heuristic - Wikiped a
Availability heuristic
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person's
mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision. The availability heuristic operates on the
notion that if something can be recalled, it must be important, or at least more important than alternative
solutions which are not as readily recalled.("] Subsequently, under the availability heuristic, people tend to
heavily weigh their judgments toward more recent information, making new opinions biased toward that latest
ews (21131
news!
The availability of consequences associated with an action is positively related to perceptions of the magnitude
of the consequences of that action, In other words, the easier it is to recall the consequences of something the
greater those consequences are often perceived to be. Most notably, people often rely on the content of their
recall if its implications are not called into question by the difficulty that they experience in bringing the
relevant material to mind.!4)
Contents
Overview and history
Research
Explanations
Applications
= 4.1 Media
= 4.2 Health
= 4.3 Business and economy
= 44 Education
4.5 Criminal justice
= 4.6 Perceived risk
= 4.7 Vividness effects
= 4.8 Judging frequency and probability
= 5 Critiques
= 5.1 Ease of recall as a critique
= 5.2 Alternative explanations
= 6 See also
= 7 References
= 8 External links
Overview and history
Prior to the work of Kabneman and Tversky, the predominant view in the field of human judgment was that
humans are rational actors. However, in the late 1960s and early 1970s, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman
began work on a series of papers examining "heuristic and biases" used in the judgment under uncertainty.
They explained that judgment under uncertainty often relies on a limited number of simplifying heuristics
rather than extensive algorithmic processing. Soon this idea spread beyond academic psychology, into law,
medicine, and political science. This research questioned the descriptive adequacy of idealized models of
judgment, and offered insights into the cognitive processes that explained human error without invoking
motivated itrationality.5] One simplifying strategy people may rely on is the tendency to make a judgment
about the frequency of an event based on how many similar instances are brought to mind. In 1973, Amos
‘Tversky and Daniel Kahneman first studied this phenomenon and labeled it the "availability heuristic". An
availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person's mind
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when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision. As follows, people tend to use a readily
available fact to base their beliefs about a comparably distant concept. There has been much research done with
this heuristic, but studies on the issue are still questionable with regard to the underlying process. Studies
illustrate that manipulations intended to increase the subjective experience of ease of recall are also likely to
affect the amount of recall. Furthermore, this makes it difficult to determine if the obtained estimates of
frequency, likelihood, or typicality are based on participants phenomenal experiences or on a biased sample of
recalled information.|5!
However, some textbooks have chosen the latter interpretation introducing the availability heuristic as "one's
judgments are always based on what comes to mind”. For example, if person is asked whether there are more
‘words in the English language that begin with a t or k, the person will probably be able to think of more words
that begin with the letter t, concluding that t is more frequent than k.!6]
Research
Chapman (1967) described a bias in the judgment of the frequency with which two events co-occur. This
demonstration showed that the co-occurrence of paired stimuli resulted in participants overestimating the
frequency of the pairings.” To test this idea, participants were given information about several hypothetical
mental patients. The data for each patient consisted of a clinical diagnosis and a drawing made by the patient.
Later, participants estimated the frequency with which each diagnosis had been accompanied by various
features of the drawing. The subjects vastly overestimated the frequency of this co-occurrence (such as
suspiciousness and peculiar eyes). This effect was labeled the illusory correlation. Tversky and Kahneman
suggested that availability provides a natural account for the illusory-correlation effect. The strength of the
association between two events could provide the basis for the judgment of how frequently the two events co-
occur, When the association is strong, it becomes more likely to conclude that the events have been paired
frequently. Strong associations will be thought of as having occurred together frequently.|*!
In Tversky & Kahneman's first examination of availability heuristics, subjects were asked, "If a random word is
taken from an English text, is it more likely that the word starts with a K, or that K is the third letter?" They
argue that English-speaking people would immediately think of many words that begin with the letter "K"
(kangaroo, kitchen, kale), but that it would take a more concentrated effort to think of any words in which "
is the third letter (acknowledge, ask). Results indicated that participants overestimated the number of words that
began with the letter "K" and underestimated the number of words that had "K" as the third letter. Tversky and
Kahneman concluded that people answer questions like these by comparing the availability of the two
categories and assessing how easily they can recall these instances. In other words, itis easier to think of words
that begin with "K”, more than words with "K" as the third letter. Thus, people judge words beginning with a
"K" to be a more common occurrence. In reality, however, a typical text contains twice as many words that
have "K" as the third letter than "K" as the first letter, There are three times more words with "K" in the third
position than words that begin with "K".[8)
In Tversky and Kahneman's seminal paper, they include findings from several other studies, which also show
support for the availability heuristic. Apart from their findings in the "K" study, they also found: When
participants were shown two visual structures and asked (o pick the structure that had more paths, participants
saw more paths in the structure that had more obvious available paths. In the structure that participants chose,
there were more columns and shorter obvious paths, making it more available to them, When participants were
asked to complete tasks involving estimation, they would often underestimate the end result, Participants were
basing their final estimation off of a quick first impression of the problem, Participants particularly struggled
when the problems consisted of multiple steps. This occurred because participants were basing their estimation
on an initial impression. Participants failed to account for the high rate of growth in the later steps due to the
impression they formed in the initial steps. This was shown again in a task that asked participants to estimate
the answer to a multiplication task, in which the numbers were presented as either 1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8 or
8x7x6x5x4x3x2x 1. Participants who were presented the equation with the larger numbers first (8x7X6...),
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estimated a significantly higher result than participants with the lower numbers first (1x2x3...). Participants
‘were given a short amount of time to make the estimation, thus participants based their estimates off of what
‘was easily available, which in this case was the first few numbers in the sequence.{*]
Explanations
‘Many researchers have attempted to identify the psychological process which create the availability heuristie.
Tversky and Kahneman argue that the number of examples recalled from memory is used to infer the frequency
with which such instances occur. In an experiment to test this explanation, participants listened to lists of names
containing either 19 famous women and 20 less famous men or 19 famous men and 20 less famous women.
Subsequently, some participants were asked to recall as many names as possible whereas others were asked to
estimate whether male or female names were more frequent on the list. The names of the famous celebrities
were recalled more frequently compared to those of the less famous celebrities. The majority of the participants
incorrectly judged that the gender associated with more famous names had been presented more often than the
gender associated with less famous names. Tversky and Kahneman argue that although the availability heuristic
is an effective strategy in many situations, when judging probability use of this heuristic can lead to predictable
patterns of errors.!81
Schwarz. and his colleagues, on the other hand, proposed the ease of retrieval explanation, in which is the ease
with which examples come to mind, not the number of examples, is used to infer the frequency of a given cla:
Ina study by Schwarz and colleagues to test their explanation, participants were asked to recall either six or
twelve examples of their assertive or very unassertive behavior, Participants were later asked to rate their own
assertiveness, Pretesting had indicated that although most participants were capable of generating twelve
examples, this was a difficult task. The results indicated that participants rated themselves as more assertive
after describing six examples of assertive compared with unassertive behavior condition, but rated themselves
as less assertive after describing twelve examples of assertive compared with unassertive behavior condition.
The study reflected that the extent to which recalled content impacted judgment was determined by the ease
with which the content could be brought to mind (it was easier to recall 6 examples than 12), rather than the
amount of content brought to mind.{4!
Research by Vaugh (1999) looked at the effects of uncertainty on the use of the availability heuristic, College
students were asked to list either three or eight different study methods they could use in order to get an A on
their final exams. The researchers also manipulated the time during the semester they would ask the students to
complete the questionnaire, Approximately half of the participants were asked for their study methods during
the third week of classes, and the other half were asked on last day of classes. Next, participants were asked to
rate how likely they would be to get an A in their easiest and hardest classes. Participants were then asked to
rank the difficulty they experienced in recalling the examples they had previously listed. The researchers
hypothesized that students would use the availability heuristic, based on the number of study methods they
listed, to predict their grade only when asked at the beginning of the semester and about their hardest final,
Students were not expected to use the availability heuristic to predict their grade at the end of the semester or
about their easiest final. The researchers predicted this use of availability heuristic because participants would
be uncertain about their performance throughout the semester. The results indicated that students used the
availability heuristic, based on the ease of recall of the study methods they listed, to prediet their performance
when asked at the beginning of the semester and about their hardest final, Ifthe student listed only three study
methods, they predicted a higher grade at the end of the semester only on their hardest final. If students listed
eight study methods, they had a harder time recalling the methods and thus predicted a lower final grade on
their hardest final. The results were not seen in the easy final condition because the students were certain they
would get an A, regardless of study method. The results supported this hypothesis and gave evidence to the fact
that levels of uncertainty affect the use of the availability heuristic.!9)
Applications
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Media
Afier seeing news stories about child abductions, people may judge that the likelihood of this event is greater.
Media coverage can help fuel a person's example bias with widespread and extensive coverage of unusual
events, such as homicide or airline accidents, and less coverage of more routine, less sensational events, such as
common diseases or car accidents. For example, when asked (o rate the probability ofa variety of causes of
death, people tend to rate "newsworthy" events as more likely because they can more readily recall an example
from memory. Moreover, unusual and vivid events like homicides, shark attacks, or lightning are more often
reported in mass media than common and un-sensational causes of death like common diseases.
For example, many people think that the likelihood of dying from shark attacks is greater than that of dying
from being hit by falling airplane parts, when more people actually die from falling airplane parts.{'°] When a
shark attack occurs, the deaths are widely reported in the media whereas deaths as a result of being hit by
falling airplane parts are rarely reported in the media,!1"]
Ina 2010 study exploring how vivid television portrayals are used when forming social reality judgments,
people watching vivid violent media gave higher estimates of the prevalence of crime and police immorality in
the real world than those not exposed to vivid television, These results suggest that television violence does in
fact have a direct causal impact on participants' social reality belief’. Repeated exposure to vivid violence leads
to an increase in people's risk estimates about the prevalence of crime and violence in the real world.{!2)
Counter to these findings, researchers from a similar study argued that these effects may be due to effects of
new information, Researchers tested the new information effect by showing movies depicting dramatic risk
events and measuring their risk assessment after the film. Contrary to previous research, there were no effects
on risk perception due to exposure to dramatic movies.('4)
Health
Researchers examined the role of cognitive heuristics in the AIDS risk-assessment process. 331 physicians
reported worry about on-the-job HIV exposure, and experience with patients who have HIV. By analyzing
answers to questionnaires handed out, researchers concluded Availability of AIDS information did not relate
strongly to perceived risk.('4]
Participants in a 1992 study read case descriptions of hypothetical patients who varied on their sex and sexual
preference. These hypothetical patients showed symptoms of two different diseases. Participants were
instructed to indicate which discase they thought the patient had and then they rated patient responsibility and
interactional desirability, Consistent with the availability heuristic, either the more common (influenza) or the
more publicized (AIDS) disease was chosen."
Business and economy
One study sought to analyze the role of the availability heuristic in financial markets. Researchers defined and
tested two aspects of the availability heuristic:(!6)
= Outcome Availability — availability of positive and negative investment outcomes, and
«= Risk Availability — availability of financial risk!'®]
On days of substantial stock market moves, abnormal stock price reactions to upgrades are weaker, than those
to downgrades. These availability effects are still significant even after controlling for event-specific and
company-specific factors.!161
Similarly, research has pointed out that under the availability heuristic, humans are not reliable because they
ss probabilities by giving more weight to current or easily recalled information instead of processing all
relevant information. Since information regarding the current state of the economy is readily available,
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researchers attempted to expose the properties of business cycles to predict the availability bias in analysts!
growth forecasts. They showed the availability heuristic to play a role in analysis of forecasts and influence
investments because of this.{!71
In effect, investors are using availability heuristic to make decisions and subsequently, may be obstructing their
own investment success. An investor's lingering perceptions of a dire market environment may be causing them
to view investment opportunities through an overly negative lens, making it less appealing to consider taking
on investment risk, no matter how small the returns on perceived "safe" investments. To illustrate, Franklin
‘Templeton’s annual Global Investor Sentiment Survey 1 asked individuals how they believed the S&P 500
Index performed in 2009, 2010 and 2011. 66 percent of respondents stated that they believed the market was
either flat or down in 2009, 48 percent said the same about 2010 and 53 percent also said the same about 2011
In reality, the S&P 500 saw 26.5 percent annual returns in 2009, 15.1 percent annual returns in 2010 and 2.1
percent annual returns in 2011, meaning lingering perceptions based on dramatic, painful events are impacting
decision-making even when those events are over.\!8)
Additionally, a study by Hayibor and Wasicleski found that the availability of others who believe that a
particular act is morally acceptable is positively related to others’ perceptions of the morality of that act, This
suggests that availability heuristic also has an effect on ethical decision making and ethical behavior in
organizations.(19)
Education
A study done by Craig R. Fox provides an example of how availability heuristics can work in the classroom. In
this study, Fox tests whether difficulty of recall influences judgment, specifically with course evaluations
among college students. In his study he had two groups complete a course evaluation form. He asked the first
group to write two recommended improvements for the course (a relatively easy task) and then write two
positives about the class. The second group was asked to write ten suggestions where the professor could
improve (a relatively difficult task) and then write two positive comments about the course, At the end of the
evaluation both groups were asked to rate the course on a scale from one to seven. The results showed that
students asked to write ten suggestions (difficult task) rated the course less harshly because it was more difficult
for them to recall the information, Students asked to do the easier evaluation with only two complaints had less
difficulty in terms of availability of information, so they rated the course more harshly.2°)
Cc
inal justice
The media usually focuses on violent or extreme cases, which are more readily available in the public's mind.
This may come into play when it is time for the judicial system to evaluate and determine the proper
punishment for a crime. In one study, respondents rated how much they agreed with hypothetical laws and
policies such as "Would you support a law that required all offenders convicted of unarmed muggings to serve a
minimum prison term of two years?" Participants then read cases and rated each case on several questions
about punishment, As hypothesized, respondents recalled more easily from long-term memory stories that
contain severe harm, which seemed to influence their sentencing choices to make them push for harsher
punishments. This can be climinated by adding high concrete or high contextually distinct details into the crime
stories about less severe injuries.(2"1
‘A similar study asked jurors and college students to choose sentences on four severe criminal cases in which
prison was a possible but not an inevitable sentencing outcome. Respondents answering questions about court
performance on a public opinion formulated a picture of what the courts do and then evaluated the
appropriateness of that behavior. Respondents recalled from public information about crime and sentencing.
This type of information is incomplete because the news media present a highly selective and non-
representative selection of crime, focusing on the violent and extreme, rather than the ordinary. This makes
most people think that judges are too lenient. But, when asked to choose the punishments, the sentences given
by students were equal to or less severe than those given by judges. In other words, the availability heuristic
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made people believe that judges and jurors were too lenient in the courtroom, but the participants gave similar
sentences when placed in the position of the judge, suggesting that the information they recalled was not
correct.|?2]
Researchers in 1989 predicted that mock jurors would rate a witness to be more deceptive if the witness
testified truthfully before lying than when the witness was caught lying first before telling the truth. If the
availability heuristic played a role in this, lying second would remain in jurors’ minds (since it was more recent)
and they would most likely remember the witness lying over the truthfulness. To test the hypothesis, 312
university students played the roles of mock jurors and watched a videotape of a witness presenting testimony
during a trial, Results confirmed the hypothesis, as mock jurors were most influenced by the most recent
act 231
Perceived risk
Previous studies have indicated that explaining a hypothetical event makes the event seem more likely through
the creation of causal connections. However, such effects could arise through the use of the availability
heuristic; that is, subjective likelihood is increased by an event becoming easier to imagine.!*4]
Vividness effects
‘Two studies with 108 undergraduates investigated vivid information and its impact on social judgment and the
availability heuristic and its role in mediating vividness effects.
In study 1, Subjects listened to a tape recording that described a woman who lived with her 7-year-old son,
Subjects then heard arguments about the woman's fitness as a parent and were asked to draw their own.
conclusions regarding her fitness or unfitness. Concrete and colorful language was found to influence
judgments about the woman's fitness as a mother.
In study 2, a series of male and female names was presented to subjects; for each name, subjects were told the
university affiliation of the individual (Yale or Stanford). When some names were presented, subjects were
simultaneously shown a photograph that purportedly portrayed the named individual, Subsequently, to assess
what subjects could remember (as a measure of availability), each name was re-presented, as well as the
appropriate photograph if one had been originally presented. The study considered whether the display or non-
display of photographs biased subjects’ estimates as to the percentage of Yale (vs Stanford) students in the
sample of men and women whose names appeared on the original list, and whether these estimated percentages
were causally related to the respondents’ memory for the college affiliations of the individual students on the
list. The presence of photographs affected judgments about the proportion of male and female students at the
two universities. Such effects have typically been attributed to the ready accessibility of vividly presented
information in memory—that is, to the availability heuristic.
In both studies, vividness affected both availability (ability to recall) and judgments. However, causal modeling
results indicated that the availability heuristic did not play a role in the judgment process.|251
Judging frequency and probabil
In general, availability is correlated with ecological frequency, but itis also affected by other factors.
Consequently, the reliance on the availability heuristic leads to systematic biases. Such biases are demonstrated
in the judged frequency of classes of words, of combinatorial outcomes, and of repeated events. The
phenomenon of illusory correlation is explained as an availability bias./*]
In the original Tversky and Kahneman (1973) research, three major factors that are discussed are the frequency
of repetition, frequency of co-occurrence, and illusory correlation, The use of frequency of repetition aids in the
retrieval of relevant instances. The idea behind this phenomenon, is that the more an instance is repeated within
a category or list, the stronger the link between the two instances becomes. Individuals then use the strong
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association between the instances to determine the frequency of an instance. Consequently, the association
between the category or list and the specific instance, often influences frequency judgements. Frequency of co-
occurrence strongly relates to Frequency of repetition, such that the more an item-pair is repeated, the stronger
the association between the two items becomes, leading to a bias when estimating frequency of co-occurrence.
Due to the phenomena of frequency of co-occurrence, Illusory correlations also often play a big role.[°]
Another factor that affects the availability heuristic in frequency and probability is exemplars. Exemplars are
the typical examples that stand out during the process of recall. If asked what participants thought different set
sizes were (how many men and how many women are in the class), participants would use exemplars to
determine the size of each set. Participants would derive their answer on ease of recall of the names that stood
out, Participants read a list of names of members of a class for 30 seconds, and then participants were asked the
male to female ratio of the class. The participant's answer would depend on the recall of exemplars. If the
participant reading the list recalled seeing more common male names, such as Jack, but the only female names
in the class were uncommon names, such as Deepika, then the participant will recall that there were more men
than women. The opposite would be true if there were more common female names on the list and uncommon
male names. Due to the availability heuristic, names that are more easily available are more likely to be
recalled, and can thus alter judgments of probability.
Another example of the availability heuristic and exemplars would be seeing a shark in the ocean, Seeing a
shark has a greater impact on an individual's memory than seeing a dolphin. If someone sees both sharks and
dolphins in the ocean, they will be less aware of seeing the dolphins, because the dolphins had less of an impact
on their memory, Due to the greater impact of seeing a shark, the availability heuristic can influence the
probability judgement of the ratio of sharks and dolphins in the water. Thus, an individual who saw both a
shark and a dolphin would assume a higher ratio of sharks in the water, even if there are more dolphins in
reality.)
Critiques
Ease of recall as a critique
One of the earliest and most powerful critiques of the original Tversky and Kahneman|1) study on the
availability heuristic was the Schwarz et al.!4! study which found that the ease of recall was a key component in
determining whether a concept became available. Many studies since this criticism of the original availability
heuristic model have repeated this initial criticism, that the ease of recall factor became an integral facet of the
availability heuristic itself (see Research section).
Alternative explanations
Much of the criticism against the availability heuristic has claimed that making use of the content that become
available in our mind is not based on the case of recall as suggested by Schwarz ct al.|4) For example, it could
be argued that recalling more words that begin with K than words with the third letter being K could arise from
how we categorize and process words into our memory. If we categorize words by first letter, and recall them
through the same process, this would show more support for the representativeness heuristic than the
availability heuristic. Based on the possibility of explanations such as these, some researchers have claimed that
the classic studies on the availability heuristic are too vague in that they fail to account for people's underlying
‘mental processes. Indeed, a study conducted by Wanke et al. demonstrated this scenario can occur in situations
‘used to test the availability heuristic.(2*] Future studies should be conducted to determine if and when this
alternative explanation will occur.
A second line of study has shown that frequency estimation may not be the only strategy we use when making
frequency judgments, A recent line of research has shown that our situational working memory can access long
term memories, and this memory retrieval process includes the ability to determine more accurate
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probabilitics.!2) This finding suggests that more research should be conducted to determine how much memory
activation affects the availability heuristic.
See also
= Affect heuristic
= Agenda-setting theory
= Anecdotal evidence
= Anecdotal value
= Attribute substitution
= Confirmation bias
= Gambler's fallacy
* Tllusory correlation
= List of biases in judgment and decision making
= Misleading vividness
= Processing fluency
= Representativeness heuristic
= Texas sharpshooter fallacy
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External links
= How Belief Works (https://web archive.org/web/20150506084446/http://www.tryingtothink org/wiki/Ho
w_Belief_Works) ~ an article on the origins of the availability bias.
Retrieved from “https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php/title=Availability_heuristic&oldid=784204253"
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Categories: Prospect theory | Cognitive biases | Causal fallacies | Inductive fallacies | Heuristics
= This page was last edited on 7 June 2017, at 01:16
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