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, 2010

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1.
1.1. 18
1.2. 18
1.3. 22
1.4. 25
1.5. 26
1.6. 28
1.7. , 29
1.8. 29

2.
2.1. 33
2.2. 33
2.3. - 34
2.4. 36
2.5. 36
2.5.1. 36
2.5.2. 37
2.5.3. 39
2.5.4. 39
2.5.5. 42
2.5.6. 42
2.5.7. 43
2.5.8. 43
2.5.9. 45
2.5.10. 46

3.
3.1. 51
3.2. 51
3.3. 1990. 52
3.4. - (CO2) 1990. 55
3.5. (CH4) 1990. 56
3.6. - (N2) 1990. 58
3.7. 1990. 59
3.8. (NOx, CO, NMVOC, SOx)
1990. 59
3.8.1. (NOx) 61
3.8.2. - (CO) 62
3.8.3. -
(NMVOC) 63
3.8.4. (SOx) 64
3.9. 1998. 65
3.10.
1990. 1998. 74
3.11. 76
4.

4.1. 79
4.1.1. 79
4.1.2. 80
4.2. 81
4.2.1. 1 2001-2030. 83
4.2.2. 1 2071-2100. 83
4.2.3. 2 2071-2100. 84
4.3. 84
4.3.1. 84
4.3.2. 87
4.3.3. 88
4.3.4.
90
4.3.5. 91
4.4.
92
4.5.
93
4.6. 95

5.
5.1. 99
5.2. 99
5.2.1. 99
5.2.2. 102
5.2.3. 102
5.2.4. 102
5.2.5. 102
5.3. 103
5.3.1 103
5.3.2. 104
5.3.3. 105
5.3.4. 105
5.4.
2015. 105
5.4.1 105
5.4.2. 110
5.4.3. 112
5.4.4. 113
5.4.5. 113
5.5. 114
5.6. 116

6.
6.1. 121
6.2. (GCOS) 121
6.3. 122
6.4. 124
7. ,
7.1. 127
7.2. 127
7.3. 128
7.4. 129
7.5.
, 130

8. UNFCCC
8.1.
135
8.2. 136
8.2.1.
136
8.2.2.
138

9. ,

9.1. 141
9.2. ,
141
9.3. ,

142
9.4. ,

143

10. 149

11. 167

AECID



GAW
GEF
GTZ/WBF

GCOS
GWP

DNA


EMEP

ICP Forests

IMELS ,
IPCC
JICA

KP
LUCF
LULUCF ,

N
NAPA
NE / /

NO /


RA VI VI
RCC
REC

SEE/CCFAP

SEEVCCC


UNDP
UNECE
UNEP
UNFCCC
--
CDM
WMO

( - UNFCCC),
, , , 1992. .
, 1994. .
()
, 1997. , .

10. 2001. ,
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1.
1.1.
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2001. , 17. 2008. .
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1.2.



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2002. 7.498.001. ,
.
19912002. ,
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2002. : (1.576.124
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, 37
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.

21
96,4% ( 98,9%, 94,1%).
2002. 6,5%
, 1% 1991. .

1.3.

a IPCC
1996. , 1, 1990. 1998. .

, .
, ,

.
1990.
, 1990. ,
CO2, 80.803Gg CO2eq.
, 77,69% , 62.776Gg CO2eq,
. ,
( ), 11.827Gg
CO2eq 14,64% .
, 4.270,8Gg CO2eq 5,28% .
1.929,5Gg CO2eq 2,39%
.
CO2 1990.
6.665Gg CO2eq 1990. 74.138Gg

70000
62776
6. Otpad
60000 5. Sumski kompleks
4. Poljoprivreda
CO2eq. emisije po sektorima (Gg)

2. Industrijski procesi
50000 1.B.2. Fugitivna em isija pri proizvodnji nafte i prirodnog gasa
1.B.1. Fugitivna em isija pri proizvodnji cvrstog goriva
1.A.4. Opsta potrosnja
1.A.3. Transport
40000 1.A.2. Industrijske energane
1.A.1. Energetske delatnosti

30000

20000

11827
10000 -6665
4270,8
1929,5
0
Energetika Industrijski procesi Poljoprivreda Sumski kompleks Otpad

Sektori

1.1. (CO2eq) 1990.

- 1990. 62.970Gg (

99Gg CO2).
22
59.259Gg 94,1% CO2,
3.711Gg . 5,89%.
432,46Gg, 44,89% 194,13Gg
.
36,44% (157,58Gg), 18,55 % (80,22Gg),
0,12% (0,53Gg) CH4.
- 28,23Gg.
N2O 88,55%
(25,0Gg), 6,27%
(1,77Gg), 2,8% (0,79Gg)
2,37% (0,67Gg).


( : HFC PFC,
SF6) 1990. .
,
. 2004. .

( -) 208Gg.
197Gg 95%
. ,
3,4% (7Gg)
1,5 % (3Gg).
- 644Gg,
489Gg 75,9%, 152Gg 23,6%,
2Gg 0,31% 1Gg 0,2%
.
NMVOC 271Gg, 157Gg . 57,9%
- , 114Gg . 42,1% .
490Gg. , 95,1% (466Gg),
.

4,8% (24Gg).

1998.
1998. 66.346Gg CO2eq,
CO2 .
76,19% (50.549Gg CO2eq) ,
. 14,32%
(9.500Gg CO2eq), 5,46% (3.620Gg CO2eq),
4,04% (2.678Gg CO2eq).
1.2.

CO2 1998.
8.661Gg CO2eq, 1998.
56.809Gg CO2eq.

23
60000

50549 6.
50000 4.

CO2eq. (Gg)
2.
1.B.2.
1.B.1.
1.A.4.
40000 1.A.3. T
1.A.2.
1.A.1.

30000

20000

9500
10000
3620 2678
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g

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1.2. (CO2eq) 1998.

CO2 50.605Gg, 47.430Gg 93,73%


, 3.176GgCO2 6,27%
.
(424,52Gg) 39,48% 167,61Gg
, 33,11% 140,57Gg , 27,25% 115,71Gg
0,15% . 0,63Gg .
- (22,02Gg)
87,6% 19,29Gg, 13,4% 2,73Gg
, .


,
.

( -) 165Gg; -
446Gg; NMVOC 113Gg 370Gg. ,
,
: 94,55%; 70,32%; NMVOC
64,35% 98,2%.


1998. ,
(LULUCF), (-21,8%)
1990. .
- ,
1998. 1990.
-28.5%.
1990. ,
(T 1 ) 10,5%.

24
1.4.


, ,
0,04C/.
, .
, ,
.
.




. 1 , ,
2001-2030. 0,8 1,1C, 2
2071-2100 3,4 3,8C.
1
+5%
1961-1990. 2
-
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,

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( 2100. )
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25


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1.5.
:
1990. 1998. ; (
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2012. 2015. .


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8,23%, 2015. 15,69% 1990. .
2012. 6,52% , 2015. 8,91%.



1990. . 2003.
.
.
2015.
.

26

2002.
, .

2012. 1990. , 2015. +8,8%.
2012. 99,3%, 2015.
107,7% 1990. .


-
20 .
CO2 o 68% (
) CO2 1990.
.
,
9.000ha, 2012. CO2
69,5%, 2015 74,5% CO2
1990. .



1990. .
2012.
, 2015. 215,2% 1990. .
, ,

2015. , 179,3%
1990. .


, 2012.
112,23%, 2015. 120,41% 1990. .
, ,
2012. 110,56%, 2015. 111,66%
1990. ( 1.3).

120000
o s n o v n i s c e n a r io
a lte r n a tiv n i s c e n a r io
100000

80000
CO eq. Emisije (Gg)

60000

40000
2

20000

0
1990 1998 2012 2015
G o d in a

1.3. 2015.

27

, 2015. ,
7.000Gg.
,
2015. , .

.

1.6.

, .
19. .
(1879-1958),
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.

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2000. .
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28
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1.8.

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29
2.1.

( 80% ). ,
. , 41
53 4611 1849 2300 .
2.397km. (371km),
(544km), (166km),
(315km) (391km),
(236km), (122km) (252km).
88.361km2.
, , .
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, -
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.
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, 2.656m.
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, .
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5 , : , , , -
.

2.2.
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.
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,
19611990. , , 10 12C,
: 600 m 10C, 1.000m 6C,
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33
2.1. e (C) (mm)
(1961-1990)

.
, 600mm, .
600
700mm, 800 1.000mm,
1.000mm ( 2.1, ).
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10mm 20 .

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2.3. -

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2006. .
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2.4.
1990 2000. 1991. .
1991. 7.595.636.
1991.
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.
2002. 7.498.001.
, .
19912002.
, 1990-.
2002. (1.576.124
), (299.294), (250.518) (175.802).
,
. ,
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.
1991. 69
74,1 , 2002.
71 76 .

2.5.
2.5.1.
19902000.
, ,
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,

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36
2.3.


() .
1990. 1991. 20%, 1992. 1993.
. , 1998.
.
41% 1990. 38% 1998. .
21% 1991. , 27,9% 2001. .
277 USD 1990. 237 USD 1991.
102 USD 1992. 1993. .
, 1993. 1994. , 85%
92% .


( 2000. ,
2001. ).
, .
,
. 2001. ,

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.

2.5.2.
,
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, (
)
.

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.
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42%

37
58%.
1990- ( 2.4).

2.4. (ktoe) 19922002.


,
. 1990. 2000.
0,59 1,35t 1.000 USD - ( 2.1).

.

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000


(t/1000USD) 0,59 0,68 0,67 0,69 0,83 1,35
2.1.


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,

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().
1990.
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, .
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, 30 ,
450W, .

( , ).

38
1990-
. ,
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.


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.

2.5.3.
1990- , ,
, .
60% 1990. 2000.
10% ,
.

, .
2.2. ( 1990.
).

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998



41 42 45 50 51

73 77 76 81 83

34 35 39 44 46

2.2. % (1990. = 100)

.
-,
1990-2000. 1997. 34,2%,
2000. 33%.

2001.
1990. . ,

, ( 70- 80- )
. , 90-
, ,
.

2.5.4.
,
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1990- (
) .
2000. 23%,
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39
1990. . , ,
, , 9%, 25%, 6% 31% 1990. ( 2.3).
1990. 1,93
toe.

/


1989 101 107 113 104 104 97 132 95
1990 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
1991 63 69 67 104 88 88 90 48
1992 39 58 59 129 77 52 79 15
1993 21 40 39 40 76 9 9 0
1994 18 31 27 35 94 0 8 0
1995 23 32 29 44 102 0 11 10
1996 29 31 34 69 103 27 46 13
1997 29 33 31 76 99 37 57 14
1998 29 35 31 92 96 45 50 13
1999 18 17 31 48 65 34 24 4
2000 23 27 25 54 58 32 31 13
2.3. % (1990 = 100)

. ,
( 38.000km),
. 1990.
1999.
. ,
,
.
, ,
. 19901999.
7%. ,
.
,,
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,
.


.
, , ,
.
1990.
.

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40
). 2005.
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,
, , ,
.

.

(),
.

,
,
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1.680km.
, ( 960km),
(600km).
, , ,
.
, 90-
. 2000. 40% 1989.
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), ,

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.

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41
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.

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.
, , ,
, ,
. 10% ,
26%.
1990- , (
). , , 16,8%
1990. 21,9% 2000. . -
2.4. -
, 40%.

1990 1997 1998 1999 2000


16,8 19,3 18,4 20,6 21,9
2.4. - %

,
.
20%.

, . 1990.
2000. 73%, 78%.


. ,
.
, .
. , ,
. ,
,

. ,
,
.

2.5.6.
1990-2000.
1,1% .

. 8.473ha,
36.419ha.
65% ,
29,7%, 5,3% .
: , ,
,
,
.

42

, - .
,
, .

(2006. ) /
, .
,
, -
.

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2.5.7.
2,5
, , , .

- .
, .
60%
. 1990.
.
,
.
/. .
/ .

.


.

,
.

2.5.8.
5.648,34m3/s
178.125,4 m3/ .
184 mm (16.234,3 m3 ) .
1.832mm (161.891,1 m3 ) ,
, , .
( ),
( ) (, ).
, ,
. ,
15l/s/km2.
, , 6l/s/km2.
, , ,
15 17l/s/km2.

43
( 2 5l/s/km2).
,
139 1946-2006.
2.6.

2.6.

.
(
250 m3/ ).
.
.
67,5m3/s, a
44m3/s, 14m3/s,
. ( ) 9,5m3/s.

23m3/s 1/3 .
45%, 25%, 30%
.
20% . 620 m3,
25%, 75%.
1.200 ,
.
( 1% ).

149.000ha,
30.000ha ( 90% ).
288, 100500ha.

270 m3 , 110 m3 ,
36,5 m3 , 22 m3
44 100 m3 .

,
1,6 ha, 500 , 500 ,
1.200km 4.000km .
3.400km 420km.
,
.

.
56.000km2
, 40
m3.
.


, , ,
.
(99,6%)
: 88,3% .
1991. 66%
. 1996. , 77%, 2000. 88%,
.
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10%
, 90- .
.
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20- .
, 2000. 1990.
. 12% , 5,3%
.


.
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2.5.9.
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2000. , , ,
.


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1991. 51,5,
2002. 99,1, .

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1998/99 ( )
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. 7, 44
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. ,
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.
46
1990-.
2002. 6,5%
, 1% 1991. .

47
3.1.


.
,
,
.
,
.

3.2.
a IPCC
1996. 1.
1
,
.
, ,
.

1.
IPCC
IPCC
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.

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,
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, IPCC- .
UNFCCC
I ,
1990. , , ,
, , , .
,
1990. 1998.

51
3.3. 1990.

- (CO2), (CH4) - (N2O) 1990. .
,
CO2 (CO2eq),
(- 1, 21 - 310).
,
: NO (not occurring) NE (not estimated)
UNFCCC ( 3.1).

, CO2 CO2 CO2eq


1990. CH4 N2O

(Gg) (Gg)
IPCC (Gg) (Gg) (Gg)

62.970 -6.665 432,46 28,23 80.803


1. 59.259 0 157,58 0,67 62.776
A. 59.259 13,66 0,67 59.753,5
1. 37.559 0,44 0,47 37.713.9

2. 6.309 0,43 0,05 6.333,5


3. 5.678 1,06 0,05 5.715,8
4. 9.713 11,73 0,10 9.990,3
5. 0 0 0 0
B. 0 143,92 3.022,3
1. 61,19 1.285,0
2. 82,73 1.737,3
2. 3.711 0 0,53 1,77 4.270,8
A.
1.831 1.831
B. 268 0,53 1,77 827,8
C. 1.612 0 0 1.612
D. 0 0 0 0
E.

F.

G. NE NE NE NE
3. NE NE
4. 194,13 25,0 11.827
A. 158,68 3.332,3
B. 28,23 2,96 1.510,4
C. NO
D. 21,84 6.770,4
E. NO NO NO
F. 7,22 0.20 213,6
G. 0 0 0
5. -6.665 0 0 -6.665
A. -6.764
B. 99 0 0 0
C. NE
D. CO2 NE NE
E. NE NE NE NE NE

52
6. 80,22 0,79 1.929,5
A. 80,22 1.684,6
B. NE 0,79 244,9
C. NO
D. NE NE NE
7. NE NE NE NE NE

459 0 0 459
459 0 0 459
- NE NE NE NE
CO2 2.404
3.1. 1990.

,
1990. , CO2, 80.803Gg CO2eq.
, 77,69% , 62.776Gg CO2eq,
(IPCC 1).
(IPCC 4),
( ), 1990.
11.827Gg CO2eq 14,64 % .
(IPCC
2), (IPCC 2.)
, , -; (IPCC
2.B), / (IPCC
1.C) . 4.270,8Gg CO2eq 5,28%
.
(IPCC
6) 1.929,5Gg
CO2eq 2,39% .
CO2 1990.
6.665Gg CO2eq 1990. 74.138Gg
CO2eq.
3.1
( Gg CO2eq) 3.2 ( 1990.
).
70000
62776 6. Waste
5. Land-use change and forestry
4. Agriculture
60000 2. Industrial processes
CO2eq. Emissions by Sectors (Gg)

1.B.2. Fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas


1.B.1. Fugitive emissions from solid fuels
1.A.4. Other sectors
50000 1.A.3. Transport
1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction
1.A.1. Energy industries

40000

30000

20000

11827
10000 -6665
4270,8
1929.5
0
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture Land-use change and forestry Waste

Sectors

3.1. CO2eq, 1990.


53
Shares of Total CO2eq Emissions by Sectors, Republic of Serbia, 1990,
100% = 80 803Gg CO2eq.

6. Waste 2.39%

4. Agriculture 14.64%

2. Industrial processes
5.28%

1. Energy 77.69%

Shares of Total CO2eq Emissions by Sectors, Republic of Serbia, 1990,


100% = 80 803Gg CO2eq.

6. Waste 2.39%

4. Agriculture 14.64%

2. Industrial processes
5.28%

1.B.2. Fugitive
emissions from oil and 1.A.1. Energy
natural gas 2.15% Industries 46.67%
1.B.1. Fugitive
emissions from solid
fuels 1.59%

1.A.4. Other sectors


12.36%

1.A.3. Transport
7.07%
1.A.2. Manufacturing
industries and
construction 7.84%

3.2. / , 1990.

1990.

.
, IPCC
,
(IPCC 1.) 59.753,5Gg CO2eq 73,95%
.

54
, (IPCC 1..1)
37.713,9Gg CO2eq, 46,67% .

(IPCC 1..1.) 36.346,5Gg CO2eq
44,98%.
(IPCC 1..1.b)
1.089,5Gg CO2eq, 1,35% , a
(IPCC 1..1.c) 277,9Gg
CO2eq, 0,34% .
(IPCC
1..4) (IPCC
1..4.a), (IPCC 1..4.b)
, (IPCC 1..4.c),
9.990,3Gg CO2eq, 12,36% .
(IPCC
1..2) 6.333,5Gg CO2eq . 7,84%
.
(IPCC 1..3)
5.715,8Gg CO2eq, 7,07% .
, (IPCC 1..3.b)
5.463,3Gg CO2eq, 6,76% ,
252,5Gg CO2eq, (0,31%) : (IPCC 1..3.c),
(IPCC 1..3.d) (IPCC
1..3.a).

(IPCC 1.B) 3.022,3Gg CO2eq, . 3,74%
.

3.4. - (CO2) 1990.


- 1990. 62.970Gg (
, 99 Gg CO2).
(IPCC
1.) 59.259Gg 94,1% CO2,
(IPCC 2) 3.711Gg, . 5,89% (
3.3)
CO2 , , 37.559Gg
59,65% CO2,
(IPCC 1.A.1, 3.1 3.4)

60000
59259

2. Industrial processes
1.A.4. Other sectors
50000 1.A.3. Transport
CO2 Emissions by Sectors (Gg)

1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction


1.A.1 Energy industries

40000

30000

20000

10000
3711

0
Energy Industrial processes
Sectors

3.3. - 1990.
55
Shares of Total CO2 Emissions by Sectors, Republic of Serbia, 1990,
100% = 62970 Gg CO2

2. Industrial processes
5.89 %

1.A.4. Other sectors


15.42 %

1.A.3. Transport
9.02 %
1.A.1. Energy
Industries 59.65 %

1.A.2. Manufacturing
industries and
construction 10.02 %

3.4. / CO2 1990.

(36.202,7Gg 57,49%
CO2) o e
(IPCC 1.A.1.).
(IPCC
1.A.4), , ,
, 9.713Gg 15,42%,
(IPCC 1.A.2) 6.309Gg 10%
CO2 .
(IPCC 1.A.3) 5.678Gg, 9%
CO2.
(3.711Gg 5,89%) CO2,
(IPCC 2), 1.831Gg
2,91% CO2 /
(IPCC 1.A) , , -
. (1.612Gg 2,56%) /
(IPCC 2.B), , 268Gg 0,42%,
(IPCC 1.C), .
CO2 6.665Gg.

3.5. (CH4) 1990.


1990. 432,46Gg.
3.5.

56
6. Waste
300 4. Agriculture
2. Industrial processes
1.B.2. Fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas
1.B.1. Fugitive emissions from solid fuels
1.A.4. Other sectors
250 1.A.3. Transport
1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction
CH4 Emissions by Sectors (Gg)
1.A.1. Energy industries

200 194.13

157.58
150

100
80.22

50

0.53
0
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture Waste
Sectors

3.5. 1990.

/ CH4 1990.
3.6. CH4, 44,89% 194,13Gg,
(IPCC
4).

Shares of Total CH4 Emissions by Sectors, Republic of Serbia, 1990,


100% = 432.46 Gg

1.A.2. Manufacturing 1.A.1. Energy 1.A.3. Transport


industries and Industries 0.10% 0.25%
construction
0.10% 1.A.4. Other sectors
2.71%
6. Waste 18.55%
1.B.1. Fugitive
emissions from solid
4.F. Field burning of fuels 14.15%
agricultural residues
1.67%
1.B.2. Fugitive
4.B. Manure emissions from oil and
management 6.53% natural gas 19.13%

4.A. Enteric 2. Industrial processes


fermentation 36.69% 0.12%

3.6. / CH4 1990.

57
(IPCC 1) 36,44% (157,58Gg)
,
(IPCC 1.B) 33,28% (143,92Gg) .
(IPCC 1.A)
3,16% (13,66Gg).
(IPCC 6) .
CH4 18,55% (80,22 Gg).
(IPCC
2) 0,12% (0,53Gg) CH4.

3.6. - (N2O) 1990.


- 1990. 28,23Gg
( 3.7 3.8).

6. Waste
35 4. Agriculture
2. Industrial processes
1.A.4. Other sectors
1.A.3. Transport
1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction
30 1.A.1. Energy industries
N2O Emissions by Sectors (Gg)

25.0
25

20

15

10

5
1.77
0.67 0.79
0
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture Waste
Sectors

3.7. - 1990.

58
Shares of Total N2Oeq Emissions by Sectors, Republic of Serbia, 1990,
100% = 28.23 Gg
1.A.1. Energy
1.A.2. Manufacturing
Industries 1.66%
industries and
6. Waste 2.80% construction 1.A.3. Transport
0.18% 0.18%

1.A.4. Other sectors


4.F. Field burning of 0.35%
agricultural residues
0.71%
2. Industrial processes
6.27%

4.B. Manure
management 10.49%

4.D. Agricultural soils


77.36%

3.8. / - 1990.

N2O,
(IPCC 4), 88,55% (25,0Gg),
(IPCC 4.D) 77,36%
N2O 21,84Gg.
(IPCC
2) 6,27% 1,77Gg,
(IPCC 6) 2,8% (0,79Gg)
(IPCC 1) 2,37% (0,67Gg).

3.7. 1990.
,
( HFC PFC,
SF6) 1990. .

,
.
2004. .

3.8. (NOx, CO, NMVOC, SOx) 1990.



(NOx, CO, NMVOC SOx) 1990.
3.2.

59

NOx CO NMVOCs SOx
1990,
(Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg)
IPCC
208 644 271 490
1. 197 489 114 466
A. 197 488 85 461
1. 95 7 2 325

2. 18 4 1 54
3. 57 376 71 7
4. 27 100 12 76
5. 0 0 0 0
B. e e 0 0 29 5
1. 0 0 0 0
2. 0 0 29 5
2. 3 2 157 24
A.
0 0 137 1
B. 3 1 1 22
C. 0 0 0 0
D. 0 1 19 1
E.

F.

G. 0 0 0 0
3. NE
4. 7 152 0 0
A.
B. 0
C. NO
D. 0
E. NO NO NO
F. 7 152 0
G. 0 0 0
5. 0 1 0 0

A.
B. 0 1
C.
D. CO2
E. NE NE
6. 0 0 0 0
A. 0 0
B. 0 0 0
C. NO NO NO NO
D. NE NE NE NE
7. 0 0 0 0

2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
- NE NE NE NE
CO2
3.2. 1990.

60

.

3.8.1. (NOx)
3.9. 3.10. /
( -), 1990. 208Gg.

200
197

4. Agriculture
NOx Emissions by Sectors (Gg)

2. Industrial processes
150 1.A.4. Other sectors
1.A.3. Transport
1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction
1.A.1. Energy industries

100

50

3 7
0
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture
Sectors

3.9. - 1990.

Shares of Total NOx Emissions by Sectors, Republic of Serbia, 1990,


100% = 208 Gg

2. Industrial processes 4. Agriculture 3.4%


1.5%
1.A.4. Other sectors
13.0%

1.A.1. Energy
Industries 45.8%

1.A.3. Transport
27.4%

1.A.2. Manufacturing
industries and
construction 8.7%

3.10. / - 1990.

61
(IPCC 1), .
(IPCC 1.A),
197Gg 95% .
(IPCC 1.A.1) 95,28Gg
45,8% / ,
(IPCC 1.A.1.) 43,81% (91,13Gg),
(IPCC 1.A.1.b) 3,44Gg,
/ (IPCC 1.A.1.c) 0,71Gg.
(IPCC 1.A.3),
, 27,4% (57Gg) e e NOx.
(IPCC 1.A.4) / ,
, 13,0% (27Gg),
(IPCC 1.A.2) 8,7% (18Gg) NOx.
,
(IPCC 4.F) 3,4% (7Gg)
(IPCC 2.B) 1,5%
(3Gg).

3.8.2. - (CO)
3.11. 3.12. /
- (CO) 1990. 644 Gg.

500 489

5. Land-use change and forestry


4. Agriculture
400 2. Industrial processes
CO Emissions by Sectors (Gg)

1.A.4. Other sectors


1.A.3. Transport
1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction
1.A.1. Energy industries

300

200
152

100

2 1
0
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture Land-use change and forestry

Sectors

3.11. - 1990.

(IPCC 1) .
(IPCC 1.A), CO, 489Gg
75,9% , (IPCC
1.A.3) 376Gg 58,4%, (IPCC
1..4) 100Gg 15,53%, (IPCC
1..1) 7Gg 1,09% (IPCC 1..2) 4Gg
0,62%.

62
, ,
(IPCC y 4.F), 152Gg 23,6%,
(IPCC 2) 2Gg
0,31% 1Gg 0,2% ( 3.12.).

Shares of Total CO Emissions by Sectors, Republic of Serbia, 1990,


100% = 644 Gg

1.A.1. Energy 1.A.2. Manufacturing


Industries industries and
1.09% construction
0.62%

4. Agriculture
23.60%

2. Industrial processes
0.31%

1.A.3. Transport
1.A.4. Other sectors 58.39%
15.53%

3.12. / - 1990.

3.8.3. -
(NMVOC)
3.13. 3.14. /
NMVOC 1990. 271Gg.
, 157Gg, . 57,9% NMVOC
- (IPCC 2).

2. Industrial processes
240 1.B.2. Fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas
1.A.4. Other sectors
1.A.3. Transport
220 1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction
1.A.1. Energy industries
NMVOCs Emissions by Sectors (Gg)

200

180
157
160

140

120
114

100

80

60

40

20

0
Energy Industrial processes
Sectors

3.13. NMVOC 1990.

63
Shares of Total NMVOCs Emissions by Sectors, Republic of Serbia, 1990,
100% = 271 Gg

1.A.1. Energy 1.A.2. Manufacturing


Industries industries and
0.6% construction
0.3%

1.A.3. Transport
26.2%

2. Industrial processes 1.A.4. Other sectors


57.9% 4.3%

1.B.2. Fugitive
emissions from oil and
natural gas
10.7%

3.14. / NMVOC 1990.

, NMVOC /
(IPCC 2..6) 137Gg, . 50,5%.
19Gg, . 7%,
(IPCC 2.D.2) (IPCC
2.B.1) 1Gg 0,4%.
(IPCC 1)
114Gg, . 42,1% ,
(IPCC 1..3) 71Gg 26,2%, /
(IPCC 1.B.2) 29Gg 10,7%, (IPCC
1..4) 12Gg 4,3%, (IPCC
1..1) 2Gg 0,6% (IPCC 1..2) 1Gg, .
0,3%.

3.8.4. (SOx)
(SOx) 1990. 490Gg.
, 95,1% (466Gg),
(IPCC
1).
(IPCC
2.B.5) (IPCC y
2.A 2.D) 4,8% SOx 24Gg (
3.15 3.16).

64
, 466Gg SOx
(IPCC 1..1),
325Gg 66,3%, /
(IPCC 1..1.) 314,13Gg 64,1%
SOx, (IPCC
1..1.b 1..1.c).

Shares of Total SOx Emissions by Sectors, Republic of Serbia, 1990,


100% = 490 Gg

1.B.2. Fugitive 2. Industrial processes


emissions from oil and 4.8%
natural gas
1.0%

1.A.4. Other sectors


15.5%

1.A.3. Transport
1.4%

1.A.2. Manufacturing
industries and
construction 1.A.1. Energy
11.0% Industries
66.3%

3.16. / 1990.

(IPCC 1..4)
76Gg 15,5%. (IPCC 1..2)
54Gg 11,0%, (IPCC 1..3) 7Gg 1,4%
(IPCC 1.B.2) 5Gg 1%
SOx 1990. .

3.9. 1998.

CO2, CH4 N2O , 1998. .
, CO2eq.
, : NO (not occurring)
NE (not estimated)
UNFCCC ( 3.3).
1998. 66.346Gg CO2eq,
CO2, .

65
,
, CO2

1998. CO2 CO 2 CO2eq
CH4 N 2O






) )
(Gg) (Gg)

(Gg)
() () (Gg)
IPCC
(Gg)




50.605 -8.661 424,52 22,02 66.346
1.
47.430 0 140,57 0,54 50.549
A.
47.430 8,12 0,54 47.768

1. 34.675 0,39 0,43 34.816


2. 3.434 0,23 0,02 3.445

3. 3.852 0,71 0,03 3.876

4. 5.469 6,78 0,05 5.627

5. 0 0 0 0
e e
B. e e



0 132,45 2.781

1. 56,13 1.179

2.
76,32 1.603

2. 3.176 0 0,63 1,39 3.620

A.



1.514 1.514

B. 257 0,63 1,39 701

C. 1.404 0 0 1.404

D. 0 0 0 0

E.




F.




G. NE NE NE NE

3.


NE NE

4. 167,61 19,29 9.500

A.
135,37 2.843

B. 25,77 2,58 1.341

C. NO

D.
16,52 5.121

E. NO NO NO

F.
6,47 0,19 195

G. 0 0 0

5.
0 -8.661 0 0 0


A.

0 -8.661

B.
NE NE 0 NE NE NE

C.
NE
D. CO2



NE NE

E. NE NE NE NE NE
6.
115,71 0,8 2.678
A.




115,71 2.430
B.


0 0,8 248

C. NO

D. NE NE NE
7.
NE NE NE NE NE




186 0 0 186

186 0 0 186
-
-
NE NE NE NE
CO2


1.815
66 3.3. 1998.
, 76,19% (50.549Gg CO2eq),
(IPCC 1, 3.17 3.18).
(IPCC 4)
14,32% (9.500Gg CO2eq).
( ).

60000 6. Waste
4. Agriculture
2. Industrial processes
50549 1.B.2. Fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas
50000 1.B.1. Fugitive emissions from solid fuels
CO2eq. Emissions by Sectors (Gg)

1.A.4. Other sectors


1.A.3. Transport
1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction
1.A.1. Energy industries
40000

30000

20000

9500
10000
3620 2678
0
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture Waste
Sectors

3.17. CO2eq 1998.

(IPCC 2) .
,
/ . 5,46% (3.620Gg CO2eq)
1998. .

Shares of Total CO2eq. Emissions by Sectors, Republic of Serbia, 1998,


100% = 66346 Gg

6. Waste 4.04%

4. Agriculture
14.32%

2. Industrial processes
5.46%

1. Energy 76.19%

67
Shares of Total CO2eq. Emissions by Sectors, Republic of Serbia, 1998,
100% = 66346 Gg
4.B. Manure
4.D. Agricultural soils 6.A. Solid waste
management 2.02% 4.F. Field burning of
7.72% disposal on land
agricultural residues
4.A. Enteric 0.29% 3.66%
fermentation 4.29% 6.B. Waste-water
handling 0.37%
2.C. Metal production
2.12%

2.B. Chemical industry


1.06%
2.A. Mineral products
2.28% 1.A.1. Energy
Industries 52.48%
1.B.2. Fugitive
emissions from oil and
natural gas 2.42%

1.B.1. Fugitive
emissions from solid
fuels 1.78%

1.A.4. Other sectors 1.A.2. Manufacturing


8.48% 1.A.3. Transport industries and
5.84% construction 5.19%

3.18. / 1998.


4,04% (2.678Gg CO2eq).
CO2 1998.
8.661Gg CO2eq, 1998.
57.685Gg CO2eq.

.
(IPCC 1.) 72,0%
(47.768Gg CO2eq),
(IPCC 1.B) 4,2% (2.781Gg CO2eq)
.
34.816Gg CO2eq
52,48% , (IPCC
1..1), , 50,64%,
(IPCC 1..1.),
,
. , . /
, (IPCC 1..4),
5.627Gg CO2eq, 8,48% .
(IPCC 1..2) 3.445Gg
CO2eq 5,19% , (, ,
, IPCC 1..3) 3.876Gg CO2eq, 5,84%.

68
CO2 1998. 50.605Gg, 47.430Gg
93,73%, (IPCC 1),
3.176Gg CO2 6,27% (IPCC 2,
3.19 3.20).

60000 2. Industrial processes


1.A.4. Other sectors
1.A.3. Transport
1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction
50000 47430 1.A.1 Energy industries
CO2 Emissions by Sectors (Gg)

40000

30000

20000

10000
3176

0
Energy Industrial processes
Sectors

3.19. CO2 1998.

Shares of Total CO2 Emissions by Sectors, Republic of Serbia, 1998,


100% = 50605 Gg CO2

2. Industrial processes
6.28%
1.A.4. Other sectors
10.81%

1.A.3. Transport 7.61%

1.A.2. Manufacturing 1.A.1. Energy


industries and Industries 68.52%
construction 6.79%

3.20. / CO2, 1998.

69
6. Waste
300 4. Agriculture
2. Industrial processes
1.B.2. Fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas
1.B.1. Fugitive emissions from solid fuels
250 1.A.4. Other sectors
1.A.3. Transport
CH4 Emissions by Sectors (Gg) 1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction
1.A.1. Energy industries
200
167.61

150 140.57
115.71

100

50

0.63
0
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture Waste
Sectors

3.21. CH4 1998.

(424,52Gg) 1998, , 39,48% 167,61Gg,


(IPCC 4),
( 3.21 3.22), 33,11%
140,57Gg (IPCC 1),
, 27,25% 115,71Gg
(IPCC 6.A), 0,15%, . 0,63Gg
(IPCC 2.B, 3.21 3.22).

Shares of Total CH4 Emissions by Sectors, Republic of Serbia, 1998,


100% = 424.52 Gg

1.A.2. Manufacturing 1.A.3. Transport


industries and 0.17%
1.A.1. Energy construction
Industries 0.05% 1.A.4. Other sectors
0.09% 1.60% 1.B.1. Fugitive
emissions from solid
fuels
13.22%

6. Waste 27.26%

1.B.2. Fugitive
emissions from oil and
natural gas 17.98%

4.F. Field burning of


agricultural residues
1.52%
2. Industrial processes
0.15%

4.B. Manure
management 4.A. Enteric
6.07% fermentation 31.89%

3.22. / CH4, 1998.

70
- (22,02Gg) 1998. ,
(IPCC 4), 87,6% 19,29Gg, 13,4%
2,73Gg (IPCC 2.B),
(IPCC 6.B)
(IPCC 1., 3.23 3.24).

35
6. W aste
4. Agriculture
2. Industrial processes
30 1.A.4. Other sectors
1.A.3. Transport
N2O Emissions by Sectors (Gg)

1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction


1.A.1. Energy industries
25

19.29
20

15

10

0.54 1.39 0.8


0
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture W aste
Sectors

3.23. N2O 1998.

Shares of Total N2O Emissions by Sectors, Republic of Serbia, 1998,


100% = 22.02 Gg

1.A.1. Energy 1.A.3. Transport


Industries 1.A.2. Manufacturing 0.14%
1.95% industries and 1.A.4. Other sectors
construction 0.09% 0.23%
6. Waste 3.63%

2. Industrial processes
4.F. Field burning of 6.31%
agricultural residues
0.86%

4.B. Manure
management
11.72%

4.D. Agricultural soils


75.02%

3.24. / N2O 1998.

(NOx, CO, NMVOC, SOx) 1998.


3.4. , , : (
-) 165Gg; - 465Gg; -
115Gg 389Gg.

71
,
,

1998. NOx CO NMVOCs SOx

(Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg)
IPCC





165 465 115 389

1. 156 327 74 382

A.
155 327 57 379

1. 96 7 2 319


2. 9 2 0 27

3. 39 250 47 5

4. 11 69 7 28

5. 0 0 0 0
e e
B. e e


0 0 17 3

1. 0 0 0 0

2.
0 0 17 3

2. 2 2 41 6

A.



0 0 32 1

B. 2 1 1 5

C. 0 0 0 0

D. 0 0 8 0

E.




F.




G.
0 0 0 0

3.


NE

4. 7 136 0 0

A.


B. 0

C. NO

D.
0

E. NO NO NO

F.
7 136 0

G. 0 0 0

5.

0 0 0 0


A.




B.
0 0

C.

D. CO2




E.
NE NE
6.
0 0 0 0
A.




0 0
B.


0 0 0
C.
NO NO NO NO

D. NE NE NE NE

7. 0 0 0 0



1 0 0 0

1 0 0 0
-
- NE NE NE NE
CO2



3.4 1998.

72
(IPCC 1.) ,
( 3.25, 3.26, 3.27
3.28), : NOx 94,55%, CO 70,32%, NMVOC 64,35% SOx 98,2%.

2 00

156 4. A griculture
NOx Emissions by Sectors (Gg)

1 50 2. Industrial processes
1.A.4. O ther sectors
1.A.3. Transport
1.A.2. M anufacturing industries and construction
1.A.1. E nergy industries

1 00

50

2 7
0
E nerg y In du s tria l p ro c e s s es A g ric ulture
S e cto rs

3.25. NOx 1998.

400
4. Agriculture
2. Industrial processes
1.A.4. Other sectors
327 1.A.3. Transport
1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction
CO Emissions by Sectors (Gg)

1.A.1. Energy industries


300

200

136

100

2
0
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture
Sectors

3.26. CO 1998.

73
400 382

SOx Emissions by Sectors (Gg) 2. Industrial processes


1.B.2. Fugitive emissions from solid fuels
300 1.A.4. Other sectors
1.A.3. Transport
1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction
1.A.1. Energy industries

200

100

6
0
Energy Industrial processes
Sectors

3.28. SOx 1998.

,
1990- 1998. , .

3.10. 1990.
1998.
(Trend)
(CO2, CH4 N2O) (Total Trend)
(LULUCF)
IPCC
, 1 .
( )
1998.
1990. 3.5:

74


CO2



(%) CO2


CH4 N 2O CO2eq









(%) (%)


(%)
(%)
(%)



-24,4 +23,0 -1,9 -28,2 -21,8

1. -24,9 0 -12,1 -24,1 -24,19

A.
-24,9 -68,2 -24,1 -25,1

1. -8,3 -12,8 -9,3 -8,3

2.

-83,7 -87 -150 -83,8
3.
-47,4 -49,3 -66,7 -47,5
4.

-77,6 -73,0 -100 -77,5
5.

B. e
e e
e


-8,7 -8,7
1.

-9,0 -9,0
2.


-8,4 -8,4

2. -16,8 0 15,9 -27,3 -18,0

A.



-20,9 -20,9

B. -4,3 15,9 -27,3 -18,1

C. -14,8 0 0 -14,8

D.

E.




F.




G. NE NE NE NE

3.


NE NE

4. -15,8 -29,6 -24,5

A.
-17,2 -17,2

B. -9,5 -14,7 -12,6

C. NO

D.
-32,2 -32,2

E. NO NO NO

F.
-11,6 -5,3 -9,5

G.

5.
0 +23,0 0 0 0


A.

0 +21,9 +21,9

B.
NE NE 0 NE NE NE

C.
NE
D. CO2



NE NE

E. NE NE NE NE NE
6.
+30,7 +1,3 +27,9

A.


+30,7 +30,7
B.


0 0

C. NO

D. NE NE NE
7.
NE NE NE NE NE




-146,8 0 0 -146,8

-146,8 0 0 -146,8
-
- NE NE NE NE
CO2


-32,5
3.5. 19901998.
75
1998. 1990.
, 1998. -21,8%,
(LULUCF).
,
,
, .
-24,19%,
-18%, -24,5%.

, +27,9%,
.
, 1998. CO2
+23% 1990. .

- ,
1998. 1990. -28,5%.

3.11.
1990. IPCC
, 1
.
2. ,

( /
) .
1990.
10,5%.
/
-
1990. 1998. ( 3) CO2
(1,92% 1990. 1,32% 1998. ) . .

76
4.1.



.

. :
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a ,
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0,26 0,32 0,19
0,13 0,26 0,15
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0,14 0,2 0,09
4.1. (C ) 19492009.

4.1. (C) 1949-2009.

79
4.1.2.
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.
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.
.
.
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, 95-
19611990. (R95)
. , ,
.

19712000. 19611990. .
, ,
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. ,
.

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0,570 0,473 0,142
1,007 0,486 0,245
1,230 0,361 0,361

4.2. (mm) 19492009

4.2. (mm) 1949. 2009.

80
4.3.

4.2.
EBU-POM

2m
19611990. .
: 20012030. 20712100.
, A1 2.
1 2 IPCC-a (IPCC
Special Report on Emission Scenarios SRES)
- .

. 1
,, 2 ,, . CO2
1 690ppm, 2
850ppm, 1,8 2,2
385ppm.

81
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(: , ,
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.

1 2001-2030 1 2071-2100 2 2071-2100


0,5 - 1 1,8 2,2 2,6 3,6
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JJA 1,2 1,4 3,2 3,6 4,2 4,6
0,5 0,9 1,8 2,2 2,6 3,2
0,8 1,1 2,4 2,8 3,4 3,8
4.3. (C)

1 2001-2030 1 2071-2100 2 2071-2100


-10 5 -20 0 -15 15
MAM -15 15 -15 10 -30 0
JJA -5 30 -30 5 -50 10
-10 20 -30 5 -30 10
-5 10 -15 0 -15 5
4.4. (%)

82
4.2.1. 1 20012030.
, 30 21. ,
(19611990), 1
, ( 4.4, ).
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, 0 -5%, ,
.

4.4. 2 m

4.2.2. 1 20712100.
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2,8 3C
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.

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83
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,
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4.6. 2 m

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.

4.3.
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( 2100. )
.
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, o a
, : 2020. 12,5% ( 11,1%,
13,9%), 2100. 19% ( 5,4%,
32%).
2020.
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39,6%).

84
2020. 16,5% (
18,5%, 13,9%), 2100.
27,2% ( 15,7%, 43,6%).

, .

,
4.5.
,
.

85

-

-

-


-

,



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-

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87
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. ,
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,

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; .
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.
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.
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. , ,
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. ,
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2 B2 2 B2
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BAHUS
.

, . ,
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.

, 19612004. , .
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.

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.


.
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91






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,
.

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EBU-POM. ETA ,
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: 19611990, 20012030,

92
20712100. . 2001-2030. A1B,
IPCC/SRES,
. 20712100.
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, ,
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,

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96
5.1.
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,
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:
1990. 1998. ( 3);
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(Business as usual) 2012. 2015.
.

, , , ,
,
.
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, 2015.
2015. 2007-
2012. , 2006. 2012. ,
, 2010-2019
, ,

, .
,
, ,

.

.

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) .


,
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5.2.
5.2.1.
1990. e ,
. , Business as usual
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.

2015.
:
1. , . ;
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99
2001. ,
. , 2008. ,

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.

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2015. .
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.

.
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, 2015. ,
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,

101
,
.

,
,
.
,
2007. ,
2008. , .

5.2.2.
1990. (5,28%)
. 1990-,
2003. .
, , .
2015.
.

5.2.3.
1990.
. 1990-
, ,
90% 1990 .
, , -
( ) .
2015. ,

.

5.2.4.
20
1990. . :
, , (
)
.


. 10-
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,
, ,
.
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.

5.2.5.
1990.
(2,38%). (Business as usual),
, 2015. .

, ,

102
.
,
,
.
, , ,
- .

5.3.


( ) ,
.
2015.
- ,
.

5.3.1.
2015. (
Business as usual ), 2012.
, 700750MWel, 4.800GWh
33,5%.
6,91 .


,
43%.
5,38 .

1.268Gg CO2eq.
, .
, -
2015. , 500MWel, 3.400GWh,
( 2.200GWh)
33,5%. 3,17
.
2015.
1.200GWh, -
:
1.
, 710GWh,
( )
, 15W;
2. -
, 490 + 2.200GWh, ( 2015.
)
(- ).
380wl,
230Wth.
615GWhth, 2.690GWhel,
420.000 tn.

103

(2.200 + 1.200GWh )
(710GWh ) (2.690GWh),
3.209,4Gg CO2eq.
()
,
/ ,
(CDM).


-
( ),
. , :
1. / ,
, ( /
);
2. ,
Low NOx,
300 620Wl;
3. ( 50%
40% )
.
2 (
34,2% 36,2%) 620Wl,
8.000GWh 0,624t . , CO2
519GgCO2.
( 30,5% 32,5%)
300Wl 1,28t ,
- 1.070Gg CO2.
1.589Gg CO2eq .

a

2015. , 8,46t,
6.067Gg CO2eq.

,
, .
, , ,
,
-.
20%
.

5.3.2.
,
/
.
,
,
, 14% (3,92Gg C4/) 2012. , 29% (6,9Gg
C4/) 2015. .

104
5.3.3.

90.000ha 10 .
9.000ha/
110Gg CO2 .
10-
- 5.000Gg CO2,
30 CO2.

5.3.4.
,
, 40% ,
( 60%)
, .
43,8Gg, ,

798Gg CO2eq.

5.4. 2015.

5.4.1.
,
.
, 2012. 8,23%,
2015. 15,69% ( 5.1) 1990. .

900000 basic scenario


Natural Gas
800000 768007 Coke Oven Coke
718518,3 Brown Coal Briquettes
700000 663835,09 Lignite
Sub-Bituminous Coal
Fuel Consumption (TJ)

600000 Other Bituminous Coal


514662,2 Anthracite
500000 Rafinery Gas
Petroleum Coke
Lubricants
400000
LPG
Residual Fuel Oil
300000
Gas/Diesel Oil
Other Kerosene
200000 Gasoline

100000

0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year

5.1. 2015. ,

105
( 5.2),
2012. 6,52% 2015. 8,91%.

900000 alternative scenario


Natural Gas
800000
722993,6 Coke Oven Coke
707170 Brown Coal Briquettes
700000 663835,09
Lignite
Sub-Bituminous Coal
Fuel Consumption (TJ)

600000
514662,2 Other Bituminous Coal
500000
Anthracite
Rafinery Gas
400000 Petroleum Coke
Lubricants
300000 LPG
Residual Fuel Oil
200000 Gas/Diesel Oil
Other Kerosene
100000 Gasoline

0
1990 1998 2012 2015

Year

5.2. 2015. ,


1990. 74%
(1998. 72%).

80000
CO2eq. Emissions by Fuel combustions (Gg)

basic scenario
alternative scenario 69445
70000
65548 64324 63676
59753
60000

50000 47768

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year

5.3. 2015. ,
/

1990.
. , 2012. 9,7%, 2015.

106
16,22%. , 2012. 7,65%,
6,56% 2015. .

1990. .

1..1
.
, .
,
/
. (
) . ,

.
,

2015. . ,
( ).

50000 b a s ic s c e n a r io
CO eq. Emissions by Energy Industries (Gg)

a lt e r n a t iv e s c e n a r io 46121
44007 42784
40352
40000 37714
34816

30000

20000

10000
2

0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year

2015. 5.4.
5.4. 2015. , /

, 2012.
16,7%, 2015. 22,3%. ,
2012. 13,4%, 7% 2015. 1990. .

1990. .

107
1..2.

7,84%
1990. . ,
(
2005. 45,2 %
1990). ,
, 1998. 54,4% 1990.
.

2012. 58%, 2015. 68,2%
1990. ( 5.5).

8000
(Gg)

basic scenario
7000
CO2eq. Emissions by Manufacturing

6333
6000
and construction

5000
4318
4000 3676
3445
3000

2000

1000

0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year

5.5. 2015.


,
,

.

1..3.
1990. 7,07%,
(6,76%).
, .
( )
. , 2001.
85% 1990. , ,
.

108
12000
basic scenario 10970

CO2eq. Emissions by Transport Sector (Gg)


10000
9881

8000

6000 5716

4000
3876

2000

0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year

5.6. 2015.

, 2012. 72,9%,
2015. 91,9% 1990. ( 5.6).

,
- .

1..4.
90-
,
.
.

12000
basic scenario
CO2eq. Emissions by Other Sectors (Gg)

9990
10000

7962 8015
8000

6000 5627

4000

2000

0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year

5.7. 2015.

109

, ,
. ,
2012. 79,7%, 2015. 80,23%
1990. ( 5.7).
,
.

1.. , ,

(, )
(
),
( 5.8).
CO2 eq. Emissions by Fugitive emissions (Gg)

5000
basic scenario
alternative scenario 4284
4000
3948 3906 3927

3022
3000 2781

2000

1000

0
1990 1998 2012 2015

Year

5.8. 2015. , /

, ( CO2eq) 2012.
30,6%, 2015. 41,8% 1990.
. ,
, 29,3% 2012. , 29,9% 2015.
1990. .

1990. .

5.4.2.
2. /

, , ,
,
, , ,
( ).
1990- , 2001. .

110

/ ,

, CO2.

CO2 eq. Emissions by Mineral products Sector (Gg)


3000

basic scenario
2500
2197
1995
2000 1831

1514
1500

1000

500

0
1990 1998 2012 2015

Year

5.9. /
2015.

CO2 9% 2012. 20% 2015.


, 1990. ( 5.9).

2..


,
.
(1% 1990.) . , ,
,
, .

1000
CO2 eq. Emissions by Chemical industry Sector (Gg)

828
basic scenario

800 760 769

600 701

400

200

0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year

5.10. 2015. 111


,
, 2012. 91,8%, 2015. 92,9%
1990. ( 5.10).

2.B.

, , ,
( 2001. )
. ,
, .

4000
CO2eq. Emissions by Metal production Sector (Gg)

basic scenario 3563


3500

3000
2708
2500

2000
1612
1500 1404

1000

500

0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year

5.11. 2015.

: 68% 2012. ,
121% 2015. 1990.
( 5.11).

5.4.3.
2002.
, .

2012. 1990, 2015. 8,8%
1990. . , 2012.
99,3%, 2015. 107,7% 1990. (
5.12).
14000 basic scenario
alternative scenario 12864 12738

12000 11827 11824 11740


CO2 eq. by Agricalture Sector (Gg)

10000 9500

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year

5.12. 2015. , /
112
5.4.4.
-
20 .
CO2 o 68% (
) CO2 1990.
( 5.13).
(Gg)

14000
basic scenario
CO2 Removals emissions by Land-use change

alternative scenario
12000 11628
11188 11298 11188

10000
8661
8000
and Forestry

6665
6000

4000

2000

0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year

5.13. e CO2 2015. , /


,
9.000ha, 2012. CO2
69,5%, 2015. 74,5%
CO2 1990. ( 5.13).

5.4.5.

1990. . ,
, 2012. , 2015.
215,2% 1990.
( 5.14).
5000

basic scenario
CO2 eq. Emissions by Waste Sector (Gg)

alternative scenario 4153


4000 3901 3901

3355

3000
2678

1930
2000

1000

0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year

5.14. 2015. , /

113
, ,
,
2015. ,
179,3% 1990. .

1990. .

5.5.
1990. 2015.
5.15,
5.16.

120000 Waste
Agricalture
basic scenario
Industrial processes
100000 Energy 97295
CO2eq. Emissions by Sectors (Gg)

90684
80803
80000
66347

60000

40000

20000

0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year

5.15. 2015.

Waste
120000
Agricalture alternative scenario
Industrial processes
100000
Energy
CO2eq. Emissions by Sectors (Gg)

89334 90224
80803
80000
66347

60000

40000

20000

0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year

5.16. 2015.

114
,
, 2015. ,
7.000Gg.

.


1990. 5.17,
5.18.

140
basic scenario
120,41
120 112,23
100,00
100

82,11
80
%

60

40

20

0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year

5.17. 2015. 1990.,


140
alternative scenario
120 111,66
110,56
100,00
100

81,99
80
%

60

40

20

0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year

5.18. 2015. 1990. ,


90- 20.
1990. . 2001. .

115
, 2012.
112,23%, 2015. 120,41% 1990. .
, ,
2012. 110,56%, 2015. 111,66%
1990. .

120000
b a s ic s c e n a rio
a lte rn a tiv e s c e n a rio
100000
CO2eq. Emissions (Gg)

80000

60000

40000

20000

0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year

5.19. 2015.

, ,
2015. , ( 5.19).

5.6.


. ,
,
.
-
,
,
.

.


, , .


,
,
,
. /
,
.

116
,

, ,
,
, ,

.
.
, ,
, 9.

117
6.1.
19. .
(18791958),
, (1941)

.

.

.
1970. .
. ,

.


90-
.
,
. 2000. ,

.
,
.
,
,
.
(20112014)
.

,
,
. .
EBU-POM,
, .

. ,
,
, .

,
,
- , -
,
.
,
.

, .

6.2. (GCOS)
,
GCOS GCOS
( 2005. ).
121
,
,
GCOS-.
,
.

6.3.
1848. .
20
1856. . 27 1857. .
1887. .
28 32 (24
) ,
( 6.1, ). 4
.
-, 75 481 .
2 .

CLIDATA.
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2.
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,
2.2.
2.3.
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141
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142
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2.3.
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2015. .

143
9.1.
9.1, 4. 9.1.

.


. - -

( ( (USD/t
( USD) USD/ ) (t CO2eq) CO2eq)
USD)
1.
392 1.470 -6,1516 1,268 -4,85

2.
592,2 655,2 13,9076 0,967 +14,38

3.
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4.

161 161 2,7832 0,519 +5,36

I
5.

350 350 0,6334 1,07 +0,59

II
6.
210 210 - 0,5 ~+42

9.1.
144
,
2015.
, 8,46t
6070Gg CO2eq .
2,916 USD.

: -4,85 USD/t CO2eq


1; 0,59 USD/t CO2eq 5; 5,36 USD/t CO2eq 4; 14,38 USD/
tCO2eq 2 61,95 USD/tCO2eq 3.

, ,
( ).

( 3) ,
, .
,

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145
10.
1.



, 50%,
90%.
50% 1025%
,
GHG.
,
,
,
, (a
).



[86],
(, ~64%, ~18%).
( [Ar = 6,92%
48,5%] [Wr = 31% 51,7%], [Hrd = 2.850 9.940 kJ/
kg] ,

-
. , ,

.

( 0,99
)

( .1.1).
(
0,99) ( .1.2)
.

a C = 63,3%,
H = 5,9%.

149
.1.1. Hd Sagr [%]
Hd [kJ/kg] = 297,8 . Sagr [%] - 2829,6

.1.2. [%]
100 Wr Ar [%]

,
.1.3.
.

150
.1.3.

:
C[%] = 2,3718 Hd [MJ/kg] + 4,2637


[60] ( ):
C[%] = 2,333 Hd [MJ/kg] + 5,511
C[%] = 2,344 Hd [MJ/kg] + 5,056
C[%] = 2,4 Hd [MJ/kg] + 4,123
C[%] = 2,334 Hd [MJ/kg] + 5,786
.

,

[90]:
C[%] = 2,2477 Hd [MJ/kg] + 5,8216
30
[90]:
C[%] = 2,3878 Hd [MJ/kg] + 4,6548

[90],
[60]
30 .

151


:
[tC/TJ]=10C[%] / Hd[MJ/kg] = 23,718 + 42,637 / Hd [MJ/kg]

.1.4.


.1.4, 30
.

(. )
25,42 [tC/TJ] (Hd = 25 [MJ/
kg]), 25,8 [tC/
TJ].

26,2 [tC/TJ], 17,18 [MJ/kg].
(6 Hd 10 [MJ/kg]),
( 30,8 28)
27,6 [tC/TJ].
.1.4.
[60].

, ,
[60],
. ,
.

152
,
6 12/kg,
,

[90]:
[tC/TJ] = 35,242 - 0,6941 Hd [MJ/kg]
30
[90]:
[tC/TJ] = 34,454 - 0,5843 Hd [MJ/kg]
, .1.5. 30
,
Hd,
Hd = 6 10 /kg.

, ,
Hd = 6 10 /kg
:
[tC/TJ] = 34,407 - 0,5891 Hd [MJ/kg]

.1.5.

153
2.

E GHG
1990.

Gg
. .
CO2eq

1.A.1. CO2 CO2 32.611,5 40,3% 40,3% 7%


N2O ( )
4.D. N2O 6.770,9 8,4% 48,7% 100%

1.A.2. CO2 CO2 6.309,0 7,8% 56,5% 12%



1.A.3. CO2 CO2 5.425,9 6,7% 63,2% 7%

:
1.A.4. CO2 5.278,2 6,5% 69,7% 12%
CO2

1.A.4. : CO2 3.460,1 4,3% 74,0% 12%


CO2
CH4
4.A. CH4 3.332,2 4,1% 78,1% 50%

1.B.2. CH4 CH4 1.737,3 2,1% 80,2% 30%

6.A. CH4 CH4 1.684,6 2,1% 82,3% 50%


2.C. CO2 CO2 1.611,6 2,0% 84,3% 7%

1.A.1. CO2 CO2 1.426,3 1,8% 86,1% 7%



2.A.
CO2 CO2 1.352,5 1,7% 87,7% 25%

1.B.1. CH4 CH4 1.285,1 1,6% 89,3% 300%


1.A.1. CO2 CO2 1.273,8 1,6% 90,9% 7%


-

154
11.A.4
: / CO2 1.095,8 1,4% 92,3% 12%
. /
N2O
44.B. N2O 918,0 1,1% 93,4% 70%

11.A.1
CO2 CO2 868,4 1,1% 94,5% 12%
.

CH4
4.B. CH4 592,8 0,7% 95,2% 50%

N2O
2.B. N2O 549,3 0,7% 95,9% 25%

1.A.1. CO2 CO2 410,4 0,5% 96,4% 7%


1.A.1. CO2 CO2 401,5 0,5% 96,9%


1.A.1. CO2 CO2 395,0 0,5% 97,4%


155
3.

-

1990. 1998.

(Reference
Approach) (Sectorial Approach)
GHG 1990. ( 1998.) . , ,
( ) ,
,
. .
, 565.481t
( 15.211,43),
, , 1
. , ,
, . ,
.
,
, . CO2
2, .
,
1
, (Naphta), (Lubricants), ,
.

, . (
-
). CO2
2 , 1
CO2 .
1998. .

156
1 [TJ]

1990.


1.A.1. 32.593,87 317.578,67 22.819,50 372.992,04
1.A.2. 33.680,07 19.985,95 33.396,77 87.062,79
1.A.3. 80.670,20 0,00 112,00 80.782,40
1.A.4.a. 32.198,36 4.958,28 9.460,09 46.617,33
1.A.4.b. 7.352,97 36.853,42 20.232,72 64.439,11
1.A.4.c. 14.864,32 23,63 199,67 15.087,61
1.A.
201.360,38 379.399,94 86.220,95 666.981,28


6.478,93 6.478,93


248.373,35 393.472,74 93.029,61 734.875,69
48.297,85 15.211,43 6.808,67 70.317,95
,
200.075,50 378.261,31 86.220,94 664.557,74



100(/ -1) [%] -0,64% -0,3% -0,36%
.3.1. 1 E 1990.

1990. 1 CO2 [Gg]



CO2


1.A.1. 2.404,16 33.881,43 1.273,77 37.559,37
1.A.2. 255,51 1.893,30 1.864,19 6.309,00
1.A.3. 5.671,32 6,26 5.677,58
1.A.4.a. 2.302,45 508,55 528,06 3.339,06
1.A.4.b. 504,31 3.644,48 1.129,38 5.278,18
1.A.4.c. 1.082,29 2,34 11,15 1.095,78
1.A. CO2
14.516,05 39.930,10 4.812,81 59.258,96

CO2
458,61 458,61


CO2 15.319,32 41.625,20 5.067,45 62.011,97
CO2 2 1.612,46 1.612,46
CO2 ,
15.319,32 40.012,74 5.067,45 60.399,51



100(/ -1) [%] 5,53% 0,21% 5,29% 1,92%

.3.2. 1 CO2 1990.

157
1 TJ

1998.


1.A.1. 25.402,98 295.997,05 17.747,00 339.147,04
1.A.2. 17.383,93 6.198,73 27.259,09 50.841,75
1.A.3. 54.671,02 0,00 88,40 54.759,42
1.A.4.a. 3.922,03 9.838,79 9.209,07 22.969,89
1.A.4.b. 2.483,87 21.504,63 18.418,14 42.406,64
1.A.4.c. 5.123,87 29,71 149,97 5.303,55
1.A. 515.
108.987,70 333. 568,91 72.871,68
428,29

2.628,18 2.628,18


119.860,92 346.865,65 83.140,20 549.866,77
9.398,35 13.254,89 9.731,34 32.384,58
,
110.462,57 333.610,76 73.408,86 517.482,19



100(/ -1) [%] 1,35% 0,01% 0,74% 0,40%
.3.3. 1 1998.

1998. 1 CO2 [Gg]



CO2


1.A.1. 1.862,43 31.821,49 990,63 34.674,55
1.A.2. 1.319,52 592,59 1.521,59 3.433,70
1.A.3. 3.847,56 4,93 3.852,49
1.A.4.a. 293,14 970,49 514,05 1.777,68
1A.4.b. 166,29 2.114,33 1.028,09 3.308,71
1.A.4.c. 371,30 2,80 8,37 382,47
1.A. CO2
7.860,24 35.501,70 4.067,66 47.429,60

CO2
186,04 186,04


CO2 8.083,88 37.094,35 4.461,59 49.639,82
CO2 2 1.405,06 179,77 1.584,83
CO2 ,
8.083,88 35.689,29 4.281,82 48.054,99



100(/ -1) [%] 2,85% 0,53% 5,26% 1,32%

.3.4. 1 CO2 1998.

158
4

1.
Business as usual,
2015. , 2012.
700750MWel, 4.800GWh)
33,5%. 1.078
USD.
o
700-750MWe, 4800GWh)
33,5%,
43%.
1,470 USD.


MWe 710 710
GWh/ 4.800 4.800
h/ 6.760 6.760
% 33,5 43
% 77,18 77,18
TJ/ 51.582,09 40.186,05

Hd (GJ/t) 7,466 7,466
USD/GJ 2,1 2,1
Mt/ 6,909 5,3825

M USD 1.078 1.470 +392
35 35
M USD 65,835 89,775 +23,94

. / M USD 33,04 26,88 6,16


. M USD 108,3222 84,3906 23,9316
M USD 207,1972 201,0456 6,1516

CO2 (EF=107,8315 t CO2/TJ) t CO2 5,562 4,333 1,228

N2O (EF=1,4 kg N2O/TJ)t tN2O 72,21 56,26 15,95


CH4 (EF=1 kg CH4/TJ)t CH4 tCH4 51,58 40,18 11,4
.(EF = 158kgCH4/TJ) tCH4 8.150 6.349 1.801
MtCO2eq 5,757 4,448 1,2685

: 6,1516 M USD/1,2685t CO2eq = 4,85 USD/t CO2eq

159
2.
Business as usual ,
2015. (
1200 GWh ) 500MWe,
3.400 GWh, . 3.400 1.200 = 2.200GWh)
33,5%.
, 2015.
1..200GWh,
1,96t 1.634Gg CO2eq/
- .

~710GWh ( )
15W.
2.730 USD/kWe.


MWe 150 240
GWh/ 710 710
h/ 4.800 3.000
% 29,5 100
% 54,8 34,25
TJ/ 8.664,41
-


Hd (GJ/t) 7,466
USD/GJ 2,1
Mt/ 1,16

M USD 63 655,2 +592,2
15 35
M USD 6,72 40,0134 +33,2934
. / M USD 2,31 1,12 1,19
. M USD 18,1958 0 18,1958
M USD 27,2258 41,1334 13,9076

CO2 (EF=107,8315 t CO2/TJ) t CO2 0,9343 0 0,9343

N2O (EF=1,4 kg N2O/TJ)t tN2O 12,13 0 12,13


CH4 (EF=1 kg CH4/TJ)t CH4 tCH4 8,664 0 8,664
.(EF = 158kgCH4/TJ) tCH4 1.368,977 0 1.368,977
MtCO2eq 0,966 987 0 0,966 987


: 13.9076 M US$/0,966987t CO2eq = 14,38 USD/t CO2eq

160
3.

-
2015. 490 + 2.200GWh
() 500MWe,

(- ).
380W 230Wt.
615GWht,
2.690GWhe, 420.000tn.
280 USD. ,
()
/ ,

(CDM).


MWe 500 380
GWhe/ 2.690 2.690
h/ 5.380 7.080
% 33,5 55
% 61,42 80,8
TJ/ 28.907,46 17.607,27

Hd (GJ/t) 7,466 34 MJ/m3
US$/GJ 2,1 14
Mt/ 3,872 517,860 Mm3

M USD 770 280 490
35 35
M USD 47,0246 17,0996 29,925
. / M USD 19,04 2,1 16,94
. M USD 60,704 246,498 185,794
M USD 126,7686 265,6976 138,929

CO2 (EF=107,8315 t CO2/TJ) t CO2 3,117 0,983 2,134307

N2O (EF=1,4 kg N2O/TJ)t tN2O 4.047 1,7607 38,71


CH4 (EF=1 kg CH4/TJ)t CH4 tCH4 28,91 17,607 11,9
.(EF = 158kgCH4/TJ) tCH4 4.567,38 4.567,38
MtCO2eq 3,2262 0,9837 2,242459


: 13,9076 M US$/2,242459t CO2eq = 61,95 USD/t CO2eq

161
4.
I
,

:
x /a ,
, (. /
),
x Low
NOx
- 620W,
x ( 50%
40% )
.
2 (
34,2% 36,2%) 620W
8.000GWh 0,624t . CO2 519Gg CO2/
.


MWe 2x618 2x618
GWh/ 2x4.000 2x4.000
h/ 6.500 6.500
% 34,2 36,2
% 74,2 74,2

TJ/ 2x42.105,26 2x39.779,0

Hd (GJ/t) 7,466 7,466
USD/GJ 2,1 2,1
Mt/ 2x5,640 2x5,328

M USD 161 +161
15 15
M USD 0 17,1738 +17,1738
. / M USD 48,44 43,82 4,62
. M USD 176,8424 167,0718 9,7706
M USD 225,2824 228,065 2,7832


CO2 (EF=107,8315 t CO2/TJ) t CO2 8,5789 501689
N2O (EF=1,4 kg N2O/TJ)t tN2O 117,895 111,381 6,514
CH4 (EF=1 kg CH4/TJ)t CH4 tCH4 84,2105 79,558 4,6525
.(EF = 158kgCH4/TJ) tCH4 13.305,26 12.570,16 735,1
MtCO2eq 9,3983 8,8790 0,519243


: 2,7832 M US$/0,519243 t CO2eq = 5,36 USD/ t CO2eq

162
5.
II
,
-
:
/ ,
, (. /
),
Low
NOx
300W,
( 50%
40% )
-.
2
300W ( 30,5% 32,5%) 1,28 t/
- 1.070Gg CO2/.


MWe 8x308 8x308
GWh/ 8x1.650 8x1.650
h/ 5.800 5800
% 30,5 32,5
% 66,2 66,2
TJ/ 8x19.475,41 8x18.276,92

Hd (GJ/t) 7,466 7,466
USD/GJ 2,1 2,1
Mt/ 8x2,608 8x2,448

M USD 350 +350
15 15
M USD 0 37,333 +37,333
. / M USD 104,44 87,878 16,562
. M USD 327,1856 307,048 20,1376
M USD 431,6256 432,259 0,6334


CO2 (EF=107,8315 t CO2/TJ) t CO2 16,800 15,766 0,501 689
N2O (EF=1,4 kg N2O/TJ)t tN2O 218,125 204,702 6,514
CH4 (EF=1 kg CH4/TJ)t CH4 tCH4 155,803 146,215 4,6525
.(EF = 158kgCH4/TJ) tCH4 24.616,92 23.102,03 735,1
MtCO2eq 17,388 16,318 1,07


: 0,6334 M US$/1,07 t CO2eq = 0,59 USD/ t CO2eq

163
a

2015. ,
1,5265 + 1,16 + 3,872 + 0,624 + 1,28 = 8,4625t
1.268,5 + +967,0 + 2.242,4 + 519,2 + 1.070 = 6.067,1Gg CO2eq .

2,916 USD
.

(
) 3.


.
:

1 4,85 USD/ t CO2eq.


5 +0,59 USD/ t CO2eq.
4 +5,36 USD/ t CO2eq.
2 +14,38 USD/ t CO2eq.
3 +61,95 USD/ t CO2eq.

164
11.
11.
[1] , ., , ., , ., , ., , ., ., 2010:

19902008. , - 445,
[2] , ., , ., , ., , ., 2009:
. .-
, ,
[3] , 2007: . , 129/07
[4] , 2007: .
, 129/07
[5] , 2009: . , 51/07
[6] Gualdi, S., B. Rajkovic, V. Djurdjevic, S. Castellari, E. Scoccimarro, A. Navarra. M. Dacic,
2008: Simulations of Climate Change in the editerranean Area, FINAL SCIENTIFIC
REPORT.
http://www.earthprints.org/bitstream/2122/4675/1/SINTA_Final%20Science%20Report%20_October% 202008.pdf.
[7] Gualdi, S., E. Guilyardi, A. Navarra, S. Masina, P. Delecluse, 2003a: The Interannual
Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean as simulated by a CGCM. Clim. Dyn., 20, 567-582
[8] Gualdi, S., A. Navarra, E. Guilyardi, and P. Delecluse, 2003b: Assessment of the tropical
Indo- Pacific Climate in the SINTEX CGCM. Ann. Geophys., 46, 1-26
[9] Guilyardi, E. P., Delecluse, S. Gualdi, A. Navarra, 2003: Mechanisms for ENSO Phase
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