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Prvi-Izvestaj SRP Web1
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1.
1.1. 18
1.2. 18
1.3. 22
1.4. 25
1.5. 26
1.6. 28
1.7. , 29
1.8. 29
2.
2.1. 33
2.2. 33
2.3. - 34
2.4. 36
2.5. 36
2.5.1. 36
2.5.2. 37
2.5.3. 39
2.5.4. 39
2.5.5. 42
2.5.6. 42
2.5.7. 43
2.5.8. 43
2.5.9. 45
2.5.10. 46
3.
3.1. 51
3.2. 51
3.3. 1990. 52
3.4. - (CO2) 1990. 55
3.5. (CH4) 1990. 56
3.6. - (N2) 1990. 58
3.7. 1990. 59
3.8. (NOx, CO, NMVOC, SOx)
1990. 59
3.8.1. (NOx) 61
3.8.2. - (CO) 62
3.8.3. -
(NMVOC) 63
3.8.4. (SOx) 64
3.9. 1998. 65
3.10.
1990. 1998. 74
3.11. 76
4.
4.1. 79
4.1.1. 79
4.1.2. 80
4.2. 81
4.2.1. 1 2001-2030. 83
4.2.2. 1 2071-2100. 83
4.2.3. 2 2071-2100. 84
4.3. 84
4.3.1. 84
4.3.2. 87
4.3.3. 88
4.3.4.
90
4.3.5. 91
4.4.
92
4.5.
93
4.6. 95
5.
5.1. 99
5.2. 99
5.2.1. 99
5.2.2. 102
5.2.3. 102
5.2.4. 102
5.2.5. 102
5.3. 103
5.3.1 103
5.3.2. 104
5.3.3. 105
5.3.4. 105
5.4.
2015. 105
5.4.1 105
5.4.2. 110
5.4.3. 112
5.4.4. 113
5.4.5. 113
5.5. 114
5.6. 116
6.
6.1. 121
6.2. (GCOS) 121
6.3. 122
6.4. 124
7. ,
7.1. 127
7.2. 127
7.3. 128
7.4. 129
7.5.
, 130
8. UNFCCC
8.1.
135
8.2. 136
8.2.1.
136
8.2.2.
138
9. ,
9.1. 141
9.2. ,
141
9.3. ,
142
9.4. ,
143
10. 149
11. 167
AECID
GAW
GEF
GTZ/WBF
GCOS
GWP
DNA
EMEP
ICP Forests
IMELS ,
IPCC
JICA
KP
LUCF
LULUCF ,
N
NAPA
NE / /
NO /
RA VI VI
RCC
REC
SEE/CCFAP
SEEVCCC
UNDP
UNECE
UNEP
UNFCCC
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CDM
WMO
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2002. 6,5%
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1.3.
a IPCC
1996. , 1, 1990. 1998. .
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.
1990.
, 1990. ,
CO2, 80.803Gg CO2eq.
, 77,69% , 62.776Gg CO2eq,
. ,
( ), 11.827Gg
CO2eq 14,64% .
, 4.270,8Gg CO2eq 5,28% .
1.929,5Gg CO2eq 2,39%
.
CO2 1990.
6.665Gg CO2eq 1990. 74.138Gg
70000
62776
6. Otpad
60000 5. Sumski kompleks
4. Poljoprivreda
CO2eq. emisije po sektorima (Gg)
2. Industrijski procesi
50000 1.B.2. Fugitivna em isija pri proizvodnji nafte i prirodnog gasa
1.B.1. Fugitivna em isija pri proizvodnji cvrstog goriva
1.A.4. Opsta potrosnja
1.A.3. Transport
40000 1.A.2. Industrijske energane
1.A.1. Energetske delatnosti
30000
20000
11827
10000 -6665
4270,8
1929,5
0
Energetika Industrijski procesi Poljoprivreda Sumski kompleks Otpad
Sektori
- 1990. 62.970Gg (
99Gg CO2).
22
59.259Gg 94,1% CO2,
3.711Gg . 5,89%.
432,46Gg, 44,89% 194,13Gg
.
36,44% (157,58Gg), 18,55 % (80,22Gg),
0,12% (0,53Gg) CH4.
- 28,23Gg.
N2O 88,55%
(25,0Gg), 6,27%
(1,77Gg), 2,8% (0,79Gg)
2,37% (0,67Gg).
( : HFC PFC,
SF6) 1990. .
,
. 2004. .
( -) 208Gg.
197Gg 95%
. ,
3,4% (7Gg)
1,5 % (3Gg).
- 644Gg,
489Gg 75,9%, 152Gg 23,6%,
2Gg 0,31% 1Gg 0,2%
.
NMVOC 271Gg, 157Gg . 57,9%
- , 114Gg . 42,1% .
490Gg. , 95,1% (466Gg),
.
4,8% (24Gg).
1998.
1998. 66.346Gg CO2eq,
CO2 .
76,19% (50.549Gg CO2eq) ,
. 14,32%
(9.500Gg CO2eq), 5,46% (3.620Gg CO2eq),
4,04% (2.678Gg CO2eq).
1.2.
CO2 1998.
8.661Gg CO2eq, 1998.
56.809Gg CO2eq.
23
60000
50549 6.
50000 4.
CO2eq. (Gg)
2.
1.B.2.
1.B.1.
1.A.4.
40000 1.A.3. T
1.A.2.
1.A.1.
30000
20000
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10000
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1998. ,
(LULUCF), (-21,8%)
1990. .
- ,
1998. 1990.
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1990. ,
(T 1 ) 10,5%.
24
1.4.
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2001-2030. 0,8 1,1C, 2
2071-2100 3,4 3,8C.
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2012. 6,52% , 2015. 8,91%.
1990. . 2003.
.
.
2015.
.
26
2002.
, .
2012. 1990. , 2015. +8,8%.
2012. 99,3%, 2015.
107,7% 1990. .
-
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CO2 o 68% (
) CO2 1990.
.
,
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1990. .
1990. .
2012.
, 2015. 215,2% 1990. .
, ,
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1990. .
, 2012.
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, ,
2012. 110,56%, 2015. 111,66%
1990. ( 1.3).
120000
o s n o v n i s c e n a r io
a lte r n a tiv n i s c e n a r io
100000
80000
CO eq. Emisije (Gg)
60000
40000
2
20000
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
G o d in a
1.3. 2015.
27
, 2015. ,
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,
2015. , .
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2.3.
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1990. 1991. 20%, 1992. 1993.
. , 1998.
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277 USD 1990. 237 USD 1991.
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2001. ).
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2001.
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.
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39
1990. . , ,
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1990. 1,93
toe.
/
1989 101 107 113 104 104 97 132 95
1990 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
1991 63 69 67 104 88 88 90 48
1992 39 58 59 129 77 52 79 15
1993 21 40 39 40 76 9 9 0
1994 18 31 27 35 94 0 8 0
1995 23 32 29 44 102 0 11 10
1996 29 31 34 69 103 27 46 13
1997 29 33 31 76 99 37 57 14
1998 29 35 31 92 96 45 50 13
1999 18 17 31 48 65 34 24 4
2000 23 27 25 54 58 32 31 13
2.3. % (1990 = 100)
. ,
( 38.000km),
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1999.
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2000. 73%, 78%.
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.
2.5.6.
1990-2000.
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43
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,
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2.6.
2.6.
.
(
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.
.
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23m3/s 1/3 .
45%, 25%, 30%
.
20% . 620 m3,
25%, 75%.
1.200 ,
.
( 1% ).
149.000ha,
30.000ha ( 90% ).
288, 100500ha.
270 m3 , 110 m3 ,
36,5 m3 , 22 m3
44 100 m3 .
,
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1.200km 4.000km .
3.400km 420km.
,
.
.
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, 40
m3.
.
, , ,
.
(99,6%)
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. 1996. , 77%, 2000. 88%,
.
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10%
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20- .
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.
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1998/99 ( )
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47
3.1.
.
,
,
.
,
.
3.2.
a IPCC
1996. 1.
1
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.
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1.
IPCC
IPCC
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. ,
,
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UNFCCC
I ,
1990. , , ,
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,
1990. 1998.
51
3.3. 1990.
- (CO2), (CH4) - (N2O) 1990. .
,
CO2 (CO2eq),
(- 1, 21 - 310).
,
: NO (not occurring) NE (not estimated)
UNFCCC ( 3.1).
52
6. 80,22 0,79 1.929,5
A. 80,22 1.684,6
B. NE 0,79 244,9
C. NO
D. NE NE NE
7. NE NE NE NE NE
459 0 0 459
459 0 0 459
- NE NE NE NE
CO2 2.404
3.1. 1990.
,
1990. , CO2, 80.803Gg CO2eq.
, 77,69% , 62.776Gg CO2eq,
(IPCC 1).
(IPCC 4),
( ), 1990.
11.827Gg CO2eq 14,64 % .
(IPCC
2), (IPCC 2.)
, , -; (IPCC
2.B), / (IPCC
1.C) . 4.270,8Gg CO2eq 5,28%
.
(IPCC
6) 1.929,5Gg
CO2eq 2,39% .
CO2 1990.
6.665Gg CO2eq 1990. 74.138Gg
CO2eq.
3.1
( Gg CO2eq) 3.2 ( 1990.
).
70000
62776 6. Waste
5. Land-use change and forestry
4. Agriculture
60000 2. Industrial processes
CO2eq. Emissions by Sectors (Gg)
40000
30000
20000
11827
10000 -6665
4270,8
1929.5
0
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture Land-use change and forestry Waste
Sectors
6. Waste 2.39%
4. Agriculture 14.64%
2. Industrial processes
5.28%
1. Energy 77.69%
6. Waste 2.39%
4. Agriculture 14.64%
2. Industrial processes
5.28%
1.B.2. Fugitive
emissions from oil and 1.A.1. Energy
natural gas 2.15% Industries 46.67%
1.B.1. Fugitive
emissions from solid
fuels 1.59%
1.A.3. Transport
7.07%
1.A.2. Manufacturing
industries and
construction 7.84%
3.2. / , 1990.
1990.
.
, IPCC
,
(IPCC 1.) 59.753,5Gg CO2eq 73,95%
.
54
, (IPCC 1..1)
37.713,9Gg CO2eq, 46,67% .
(IPCC 1..1.) 36.346,5Gg CO2eq
44,98%.
(IPCC 1..1.b)
1.089,5Gg CO2eq, 1,35% , a
(IPCC 1..1.c) 277,9Gg
CO2eq, 0,34% .
(IPCC
1..4) (IPCC
1..4.a), (IPCC 1..4.b)
, (IPCC 1..4.c),
9.990,3Gg CO2eq, 12,36% .
(IPCC
1..2) 6.333,5Gg CO2eq . 7,84%
.
(IPCC 1..3)
5.715,8Gg CO2eq, 7,07% .
, (IPCC 1..3.b)
5.463,3Gg CO2eq, 6,76% ,
252,5Gg CO2eq, (0,31%) : (IPCC 1..3.c),
(IPCC 1..3.d) (IPCC
1..3.a).
(IPCC 1.B) 3.022,3Gg CO2eq, . 3,74%
.
60000
59259
2. Industrial processes
1.A.4. Other sectors
50000 1.A.3. Transport
CO2 Emissions by Sectors (Gg)
40000
30000
20000
10000
3711
0
Energy Industrial processes
Sectors
3.3. - 1990.
55
Shares of Total CO2 Emissions by Sectors, Republic of Serbia, 1990,
100% = 62970 Gg CO2
2. Industrial processes
5.89 %
1.A.3. Transport
9.02 %
1.A.1. Energy
Industries 59.65 %
1.A.2. Manufacturing
industries and
construction 10.02 %
(36.202,7Gg 57,49%
CO2) o e
(IPCC 1.A.1.).
(IPCC
1.A.4), , ,
, 9.713Gg 15,42%,
(IPCC 1.A.2) 6.309Gg 10%
CO2 .
(IPCC 1.A.3) 5.678Gg, 9%
CO2.
(3.711Gg 5,89%) CO2,
(IPCC 2), 1.831Gg
2,91% CO2 /
(IPCC 1.A) , , -
. (1.612Gg 2,56%) /
(IPCC 2.B), , 268Gg 0,42%,
(IPCC 1.C), .
CO2 6.665Gg.
56
6. Waste
300 4. Agriculture
2. Industrial processes
1.B.2. Fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas
1.B.1. Fugitive emissions from solid fuels
1.A.4. Other sectors
250 1.A.3. Transport
1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction
CH4 Emissions by Sectors (Gg)
1.A.1. Energy industries
200 194.13
157.58
150
100
80.22
50
0.53
0
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture Waste
Sectors
3.5. 1990.
/ CH4 1990.
3.6. CH4, 44,89% 194,13Gg,
(IPCC
4).
57
(IPCC 1) 36,44% (157,58Gg)
,
(IPCC 1.B) 33,28% (143,92Gg) .
(IPCC 1.A)
3,16% (13,66Gg).
(IPCC 6) .
CH4 18,55% (80,22 Gg).
(IPCC
2) 0,12% (0,53Gg) CH4.
6. Waste
35 4. Agriculture
2. Industrial processes
1.A.4. Other sectors
1.A.3. Transport
1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction
30 1.A.1. Energy industries
N2O Emissions by Sectors (Gg)
25.0
25
20
15
10
5
1.77
0.67 0.79
0
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture Waste
Sectors
3.7. - 1990.
58
Shares of Total N2Oeq Emissions by Sectors, Republic of Serbia, 1990,
100% = 28.23 Gg
1.A.1. Energy
1.A.2. Manufacturing
Industries 1.66%
industries and
6. Waste 2.80% construction 1.A.3. Transport
0.18% 0.18%
4.B. Manure
management 10.49%
3.8. / - 1990.
N2O,
(IPCC 4), 88,55% (25,0Gg),
(IPCC 4.D) 77,36%
N2O 21,84Gg.
(IPCC
2) 6,27% 1,77Gg,
(IPCC 6) 2,8% (0,79Gg)
(IPCC 1) 2,37% (0,67Gg).
3.7. 1990.
,
( HFC PFC,
SF6) 1990. .
,
.
2004. .
59
NOx CO NMVOCs SOx
1990,
(Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg)
IPCC
208 644 271 490
1. 197 489 114 466
A. 197 488 85 461
1. 95 7 2 325
2. 18 4 1 54
3. 57 376 71 7
4. 27 100 12 76
5. 0 0 0 0
B. e e 0 0 29 5
1. 0 0 0 0
2. 0 0 29 5
2. 3 2 157 24
A.
0 0 137 1
B. 3 1 1 22
C. 0 0 0 0
D. 0 1 19 1
E.
F.
G. 0 0 0 0
3. NE
4. 7 152 0 0
A.
B. 0
C. NO
D. 0
E. NO NO NO
F. 7 152 0
G. 0 0 0
5. 0 1 0 0
A.
B. 0 1
C.
D. CO2
E. NE NE
6. 0 0 0 0
A. 0 0
B. 0 0 0
C. NO NO NO NO
D. NE NE NE NE
7. 0 0 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
- NE NE NE NE
CO2
3.2. 1990.
60
.
3.8.1. (NOx)
3.9. 3.10. /
( -), 1990. 208Gg.
200
197
4. Agriculture
NOx Emissions by Sectors (Gg)
2. Industrial processes
150 1.A.4. Other sectors
1.A.3. Transport
1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction
1.A.1. Energy industries
100
50
3 7
0
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture
Sectors
3.9. - 1990.
1.A.1. Energy
Industries 45.8%
1.A.3. Transport
27.4%
1.A.2. Manufacturing
industries and
construction 8.7%
3.10. / - 1990.
61
(IPCC 1), .
(IPCC 1.A),
197Gg 95% .
(IPCC 1.A.1) 95,28Gg
45,8% / ,
(IPCC 1.A.1.) 43,81% (91,13Gg),
(IPCC 1.A.1.b) 3,44Gg,
/ (IPCC 1.A.1.c) 0,71Gg.
(IPCC 1.A.3),
, 27,4% (57Gg) e e NOx.
(IPCC 1.A.4) / ,
, 13,0% (27Gg),
(IPCC 1.A.2) 8,7% (18Gg) NOx.
,
(IPCC 4.F) 3,4% (7Gg)
(IPCC 2.B) 1,5%
(3Gg).
3.8.2. - (CO)
3.11. 3.12. /
- (CO) 1990. 644 Gg.
500 489
300
200
152
100
2 1
0
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture Land-use change and forestry
Sectors
3.11. - 1990.
(IPCC 1) .
(IPCC 1.A), CO, 489Gg
75,9% , (IPCC
1.A.3) 376Gg 58,4%, (IPCC
1..4) 100Gg 15,53%, (IPCC
1..1) 7Gg 1,09% (IPCC 1..2) 4Gg
0,62%.
62
, ,
(IPCC y 4.F), 152Gg 23,6%,
(IPCC 2) 2Gg
0,31% 1Gg 0,2% ( 3.12.).
4. Agriculture
23.60%
2. Industrial processes
0.31%
1.A.3. Transport
1.A.4. Other sectors 58.39%
15.53%
3.12. / - 1990.
3.8.3. -
(NMVOC)
3.13. 3.14. /
NMVOC 1990. 271Gg.
, 157Gg, . 57,9% NMVOC
- (IPCC 2).
2. Industrial processes
240 1.B.2. Fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas
1.A.4. Other sectors
1.A.3. Transport
220 1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction
1.A.1. Energy industries
NMVOCs Emissions by Sectors (Gg)
200
180
157
160
140
120
114
100
80
60
40
20
0
Energy Industrial processes
Sectors
63
Shares of Total NMVOCs Emissions by Sectors, Republic of Serbia, 1990,
100% = 271 Gg
1.A.3. Transport
26.2%
1.B.2. Fugitive
emissions from oil and
natural gas
10.7%
, NMVOC /
(IPCC 2..6) 137Gg, . 50,5%.
19Gg, . 7%,
(IPCC 2.D.2) (IPCC
2.B.1) 1Gg 0,4%.
(IPCC 1)
114Gg, . 42,1% ,
(IPCC 1..3) 71Gg 26,2%, /
(IPCC 1.B.2) 29Gg 10,7%, (IPCC
1..4) 12Gg 4,3%, (IPCC
1..1) 2Gg 0,6% (IPCC 1..2) 1Gg, .
0,3%.
3.8.4. (SOx)
(SOx) 1990. 490Gg.
, 95,1% (466Gg),
(IPCC
1).
(IPCC
2.B.5) (IPCC y
2.A 2.D) 4,8% SOx 24Gg (
3.15 3.16).
64
, 466Gg SOx
(IPCC 1..1),
325Gg 66,3%, /
(IPCC 1..1.) 314,13Gg 64,1%
SOx, (IPCC
1..1.b 1..1.c).
1.A.3. Transport
1.4%
1.A.2. Manufacturing
industries and
construction 1.A.1. Energy
11.0% Industries
66.3%
3.16. / 1990.
(IPCC 1..4)
76Gg 15,5%. (IPCC 1..2)
54Gg 11,0%, (IPCC 1..3) 7Gg 1,4%
(IPCC 1.B.2) 5Gg 1%
SOx 1990. .
3.9. 1998.
CO2, CH4 N2O , 1998. .
, CO2eq.
, : NO (not occurring)
NE (not estimated)
UNFCCC ( 3.3).
1998. 66.346Gg CO2eq,
CO2, .
65
,
, CO2
1998. CO2 CO 2 CO2eq
CH4 N 2O
) )
(Gg) (Gg)
(Gg)
() () (Gg)
IPCC
(Gg)
50.605 -8.661 424,52 22,02 66.346
1.
47.430 0 140,57 0,54 50.549
A.
47.430 8,12 0,54 47.768
1. 34.675 0,39 0,43 34.816
2. 3.434 0,23 0,02 3.445
3. 3.852 0,71 0,03 3.876
4. 5.469 6,78 0,05 5.627
5. 0 0 0 0
e e
B. e e
0 132,45 2.781
1. 56,13 1.179
2.
76,32 1.603
2. 3.176 0 0,63 1,39 3.620
A.
1.514 1.514
B. 257 0,63 1,39 701
C. 1.404 0 0 1.404
D. 0 0 0 0
E.
F.
G. NE NE NE NE
3.
NE NE
4. 167,61 19,29 9.500
A.
135,37 2.843
B. 25,77 2,58 1.341
C. NO
D.
16,52 5.121
E. NO NO NO
F.
6,47 0,19 195
G. 0 0 0
5.
0 -8.661 0 0 0
A.
0 -8.661
B.
NE NE 0 NE NE NE
C.
NE
D. CO2
NE NE
E. NE NE NE NE NE
6.
115,71 0,8 2.678
A.
115,71 2.430
B.
0 0,8 248
C. NO
D. NE NE NE
7.
NE NE NE NE NE
186 0 0 186
186 0 0 186
-
-
NE NE NE NE
CO2
1.815
66 3.3. 1998.
, 76,19% (50.549Gg CO2eq),
(IPCC 1, 3.17 3.18).
(IPCC 4)
14,32% (9.500Gg CO2eq).
( ).
60000 6. Waste
4. Agriculture
2. Industrial processes
50549 1.B.2. Fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas
50000 1.B.1. Fugitive emissions from solid fuels
CO2eq. Emissions by Sectors (Gg)
30000
20000
9500
10000
3620 2678
0
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture Waste
Sectors
(IPCC 2) .
,
/ . 5,46% (3.620Gg CO2eq)
1998. .
6. Waste 4.04%
4. Agriculture
14.32%
2. Industrial processes
5.46%
1. Energy 76.19%
67
Shares of Total CO2eq. Emissions by Sectors, Republic of Serbia, 1998,
100% = 66346 Gg
4.B. Manure
4.D. Agricultural soils 6.A. Solid waste
management 2.02% 4.F. Field burning of
7.72% disposal on land
agricultural residues
4.A. Enteric 0.29% 3.66%
fermentation 4.29% 6.B. Waste-water
handling 0.37%
2.C. Metal production
2.12%
1.B.1. Fugitive
emissions from solid
fuels 1.78%
3.18. / 1998.
4,04% (2.678Gg CO2eq).
CO2 1998.
8.661Gg CO2eq, 1998.
57.685Gg CO2eq.
.
(IPCC 1.) 72,0%
(47.768Gg CO2eq),
(IPCC 1.B) 4,2% (2.781Gg CO2eq)
.
34.816Gg CO2eq
52,48% , (IPCC
1..1), , 50,64%,
(IPCC 1..1.),
,
. , . /
, (IPCC 1..4),
5.627Gg CO2eq, 8,48% .
(IPCC 1..2) 3.445Gg
CO2eq 5,19% , (, ,
, IPCC 1..3) 3.876Gg CO2eq, 5,84%.
68
CO2 1998. 50.605Gg, 47.430Gg
93,73%, (IPCC 1),
3.176Gg CO2 6,27% (IPCC 2,
3.19 3.20).
40000
30000
20000
10000
3176
0
Energy Industrial processes
Sectors
2. Industrial processes
6.28%
1.A.4. Other sectors
10.81%
69
6. Waste
300 4. Agriculture
2. Industrial processes
1.B.2. Fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas
1.B.1. Fugitive emissions from solid fuels
250 1.A.4. Other sectors
1.A.3. Transport
CH4 Emissions by Sectors (Gg) 1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction
1.A.1. Energy industries
200
167.61
150 140.57
115.71
100
50
0.63
0
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture Waste
Sectors
6. Waste 27.26%
1.B.2. Fugitive
emissions from oil and
natural gas 17.98%
4.B. Manure
management 4.A. Enteric
6.07% fermentation 31.89%
70
- (22,02Gg) 1998. ,
(IPCC 4), 87,6% 19,29Gg, 13,4%
2,73Gg (IPCC 2.B),
(IPCC 6.B)
(IPCC 1., 3.23 3.24).
35
6. W aste
4. Agriculture
2. Industrial processes
30 1.A.4. Other sectors
1.A.3. Transport
N2O Emissions by Sectors (Gg)
19.29
20
15
10
2. Industrial processes
4.F. Field burning of 6.31%
agricultural residues
0.86%
4.B. Manure
management
11.72%
71
,
,
1998. NOx CO NMVOCs SOx
(Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg)
IPCC
165 465 115 389
1. 156 327 74 382
A.
155 327 57 379
1. 96 7 2 319
2. 9 2 0 27
3. 39 250 47 5
4. 11 69 7 28
5. 0 0 0 0
e e
B. e e
0 0 17 3
1. 0 0 0 0
2.
0 0 17 3
2. 2 2 41 6
A.
0 0 32 1
B. 2 1 1 5
C. 0 0 0 0
D. 0 0 8 0
E.
F.
G.
0 0 0 0
3.
NE
4. 7 136 0 0
A.
B. 0
C. NO
D.
0
E. NO NO NO
F.
7 136 0
G. 0 0 0
5.
0 0 0 0
A.
B.
0 0
C.
D. CO2
E.
NE NE
6.
0 0 0 0
A.
0 0
B.
0 0 0
C.
NO NO NO NO
D. NE NE NE NE
7. 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
-
- NE NE NE NE
CO2
3.4 1998.
72
(IPCC 1.) ,
( 3.25, 3.26, 3.27
3.28), : NOx 94,55%, CO 70,32%, NMVOC 64,35% SOx 98,2%.
2 00
156 4. A griculture
NOx Emissions by Sectors (Gg)
1 50 2. Industrial processes
1.A.4. O ther sectors
1.A.3. Transport
1.A.2. M anufacturing industries and construction
1.A.1. E nergy industries
1 00
50
2 7
0
E nerg y In du s tria l p ro c e s s es A g ric ulture
S e cto rs
400
4. Agriculture
2. Industrial processes
1.A.4. Other sectors
327 1.A.3. Transport
1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction
CO Emissions by Sectors (Gg)
200
136
100
2
0
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture
Sectors
3.26. CO 1998.
73
400 382
200
100
6
0
Energy Industrial processes
Sectors
,
1990- 1998. , .
3.10. 1990.
1998.
(Trend)
(CO2, CH4 N2O) (Total Trend)
(LULUCF)
IPCC
, 1 .
( )
1998.
1990. 3.5:
74
CO2
(%) CO2
CH4 N 2O CO2eq
(%) (%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
-24,4 +23,0 -1,9 -28,2 -21,8
1. -24,9 0 -12,1 -24,1 -24,19
A.
-24,9 -68,2 -24,1 -25,1
1. -8,3 -12,8 -9,3 -8,3
2.
-83,7 -87 -150 -83,8
3.
-47,4 -49,3 -66,7 -47,5
4.
-77,6 -73,0 -100 -77,5
5.
B. e
e e
e
-8,7 -8,7
1.
-9,0 -9,0
2.
-8,4 -8,4
2. -16,8 0 15,9 -27,3 -18,0
A.
-20,9 -20,9
B. -4,3 15,9 -27,3 -18,1
C. -14,8 0 0 -14,8
D.
E.
F.
G. NE NE NE NE
3.
NE NE
4. -15,8 -29,6 -24,5
A.
-17,2 -17,2
B. -9,5 -14,7 -12,6
C. NO
D.
-32,2 -32,2
E. NO NO NO
F.
-11,6 -5,3 -9,5
G.
5.
0 +23,0 0 0 0
A.
0 +21,9 +21,9
B.
NE NE 0 NE NE NE
C.
NE
D. CO2
NE NE
E. NE NE NE NE NE
6.
+30,7 +1,3 +27,9
A.
+30,7 +30,7
B.
0 0
C. NO
D. NE NE NE
7.
NE NE NE NE NE
-146,8 0 0 -146,8
-146,8 0 0 -146,8
-
- NE NE NE NE
CO2
-32,5
3.5. 19901998.
75
1998. 1990.
, 1998. -21,8%,
(LULUCF).
,
,
, .
-24,19%,
-18%, -24,5%.
, +27,9%,
.
, 1998. CO2
+23% 1990. .
- ,
1998. 1990. -28,5%.
3.11.
1990. IPCC
, 1
.
2. ,
( /
) .
1990.
10,5%.
/
-
1990. 1998. ( 3) CO2
(1,92% 1990. 1,32% 1998. ) . .
76
4.1.
.
. :
19502004;
19712000. 19611990.
, 19492009.
4.1.1.
,
, 1950-2004.
. ,
, .
.
19712000. 19611990.
0,7C. -
0,4C ( 4.3, ).
a ,
.
( 4.1
4.1). .
79
4.1.2.
19502004. , ,
.
,
.
.
.
1mm 1976.
, 95-
19611990. (R95)
. , ,
.
19712000. 19611990. .
, ,
( 4.3, ).
60 ,
( 4.2 4.2).
. ,
.
-0,455 -0,101 -0,194
-0,018 -0,530 0,253
0,570 0,473 0,142
1,007 0,486 0,245
1,230 0,361 0,361
80
4.3.
4.2.
EBU-POM
2m
19611990. .
: 20012030. 20712100.
, A1 2.
1 2 IPCC-a (IPCC
Special Report on Emission Scenarios SRES)
- .
. 1
,, 2 ,, . CO2
1 690ppm, 2
850ppm, 1,8 2,2
385ppm.
81
4.3. 4.4. , ,
(: , ,
, : , , , : , , , :
, , ), .
.
82
4.2.1. 1 20012030.
, 30 21. ,
(19611990), 1
, ( 4.4, ).
1C,
0,9C , 1,1C.
0 5%, 5 10% ( 4.4, ).
, 0 -5%, ,
.
4.4. 2 m
4.2.2. 1 20712100.
1 , 30
21. 2,4 2,8C ,
2,8 3C
( 4.5, ).
( 4.5, ) , -10 -
15%, -5 -10%
.
4.5. 2 m
83
4.2.3. 2 20712100.
,
3,6 3,8C. , 3,4 3,6
C, , ,
( 4.6, ).
4.6. 2 m
( 4.6, ).
5 10%
, .
,
: 0 -5% , -5 -10%
-10 -15%
.
4.3.
4.3.1.
( 2100. )
.
(NCAR, MPI RegCM)
, o a
, : 2020. 12,5% ( 11,1%,
13,9%), 2100. 19% ( 5,4%,
32%).
2020.
15% ( 16,9%,
13,9%), 2100. 25,1% ( 13,4%,
39,6%).
84
2020. 16,5% (
18,5%, 13,9%), 2100.
27,2% ( 15,7%, 43,6%).
, .
,
4.5.
,
.
85
-
-
-
-
,
-
-
-
-
- ,
-
-
-
;
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
/-
-
-
-
Ta 4.5.
86
4.3.2.
.
,
.
: ,
,
,
(
) ,
.
.
, .
.
, ,
, 4.6:
;
,
,
,
4.6.
87
4.3.3.
. ,
, 1989-2000.
40,9% .
( 2007. 2008. ) ,
,
: ; ;
; .
,
.
HadCM3 (2 B2 2031-2060. 1961-1990.)
CropSyst .
20C. : (C4 summer
crops), (C3 crops), (Legumes), (Tuber crops) (Cereals),
.
-,
. , ,
2,
. ,
2540% ( 4.7).
(%) (%)
CO2 CO2
2 B2 2 B2
-4,43 -2,54 -0,6 0,21
-18,59 -8,11 -7,19 0,97
-15,57 -6,92 -5,44 0,96
-22,50 -6,80 -9,33 4,39
-6,79 3,71 4,39 12,49
4.7. (%)
BAHUS
.
, . ,
SIRIUS, je a
, 2040.
58%, 410% 2080.
1981-2005. , 2.
ECHAM5, HADCM3 NCAR-PCM.
.
, 19612004. , .
, 2,
-
.
88
, ,
,
, ,
. ,
,
,
,
4.8.
89
4.3.4.
,
: ,
, ,
, ; ,
; , ,
; ;
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5.4.1.
,
.
, 2012. 8,23%,
2015. 15,69% ( 5.1) 1990. .
100000
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
5.1. 2015. ,
105
( 5.2),
2012. 6,52% 2015. 8,91%.
600000
514662,2 Other Bituminous Coal
500000
Anthracite
Rafinery Gas
400000 Petroleum Coke
Lubricants
300000 LPG
Residual Fuel Oil
200000 Gas/Diesel Oil
Other Kerosene
100000 Gasoline
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
5.2. 2015. ,
1990. 74%
(1998. 72%).
80000
CO2eq. Emissions by Fuel combustions (Gg)
basic scenario
alternative scenario 69445
70000
65548 64324 63676
59753
60000
50000 47768
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
5.3. 2015. ,
/
1990.
. , 2012. 9,7%, 2015.
106
16,22%. , 2012. 7,65%,
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1990. .
1..1
.
, .
,
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. (
) . ,
.
,
2015. . ,
( ).
50000 b a s ic s c e n a r io
CO eq. Emissions by Energy Industries (Gg)
a lt e r n a t iv e s c e n a r io 46121
44007 42784
40352
40000 37714
34816
30000
20000
10000
2
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
2015. 5.4.
5.4. 2015. , /
, 2012.
16,7%, 2015. 22,3%. ,
2012. 13,4%, 7% 2015. 1990. .
1990. .
107
1..2.
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(
2005. 45,2 %
1990). ,
, 1998. 54,4% 1990.
.
2012. 58%, 2015. 68,2%
1990. ( 5.5).
8000
(Gg)
basic scenario
7000
CO2eq. Emissions by Manufacturing
6333
6000
and construction
5000
4318
4000 3676
3445
3000
2000
1000
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
5.5. 2015.
,
,
.
1..3.
1990. 7,07%,
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, .
( )
. , 2001.
85% 1990. , ,
.
108
12000
basic scenario 10970
8000
6000 5716
4000
3876
2000
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
5.6. 2015.
, 2012. 72,9%,
2015. 91,9% 1990. ( 5.6).
,
- .
1..4.
90-
,
.
.
12000
basic scenario
CO2eq. Emissions by Other Sectors (Gg)
9990
10000
7962 8015
8000
6000 5627
4000
2000
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
5.7. 2015.
109
, ,
. ,
2012. 79,7%, 2015. 80,23%
1990. ( 5.7).
,
.
1.. , ,
(, )
(
),
( 5.8).
CO2 eq. Emissions by Fugitive emissions (Gg)
5000
basic scenario
alternative scenario 4284
4000
3948 3906 3927
3022
3000 2781
2000
1000
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
5.8. 2015. , /
, ( CO2eq) 2012.
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. ,
, 29,3% 2012. , 29,9% 2015.
1990. .
1990. .
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2. /
, , ,
,
, , ,
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110
/ ,
, CO2.
basic scenario
2500
2197
1995
2000 1831
1514
1500
1000
500
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
5.9. /
2015.
2..
,
.
(1% 1990.) . , ,
,
, .
1000
CO2 eq. Emissions by Chemical industry Sector (Gg)
828
basic scenario
600 701
400
200
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
2.B.
, , ,
( 2001. )
. ,
, .
4000
CO2eq. Emissions by Metal production Sector (Gg)
3000
2708
2500
2000
1612
1500 1404
1000
500
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
5.11. 2015.
: 68% 2012. ,
121% 2015. 1990.
( 5.11).
5.4.3.
2002.
, .
2012. 1990, 2015. 8,8%
1990. . , 2012.
99,3%, 2015. 107,7% 1990. (
5.12).
14000 basic scenario
alternative scenario 12864 12738
10000 9500
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
5.12. 2015. , /
112
5.4.4.
-
20 .
CO2 o 68% (
) CO2 1990.
( 5.13).
(Gg)
14000
basic scenario
CO2 Removals emissions by Land-use change
alternative scenario
12000 11628
11188 11298 11188
10000
8661
8000
and Forestry
6665
6000
4000
2000
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
,
9.000ha, 2012. CO2
69,5%, 2015. 74,5%
CO2 1990. ( 5.13).
5.4.5.
1990. . ,
, 2012. , 2015.
215,2% 1990.
( 5.14).
5000
basic scenario
CO2 eq. Emissions by Waste Sector (Gg)
3355
3000
2678
1930
2000
1000
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
5.14. 2015. , /
113
, ,
,
2015. ,
179,3% 1990. .
1990. .
5.5.
1990. 2015.
5.15,
5.16.
120000 Waste
Agricalture
basic scenario
Industrial processes
100000 Energy 97295
CO2eq. Emissions by Sectors (Gg)
90684
80803
80000
66347
60000
40000
20000
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
5.15. 2015.
Waste
120000
Agricalture alternative scenario
Industrial processes
100000
Energy
CO2eq. Emissions by Sectors (Gg)
89334 90224
80803
80000
66347
60000
40000
20000
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
5.16. 2015.
114
,
, 2015. ,
7.000Gg.
.
1990. 5.17,
5.18.
140
basic scenario
120,41
120 112,23
100,00
100
82,11
80
%
60
40
20
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
140
alternative scenario
120 111,66
110,56
100,00
100
81,99
80
%
60
40
20
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
90- 20.
1990. . 2001. .
115
, 2012.
112,23%, 2015. 120,41% 1990. .
, ,
2012. 110,56%, 2015. 111,66%
1990. .
120000
b a s ic s c e n a rio
a lte rn a tiv e s c e n a rio
100000
CO2eq. Emissions (Gg)
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1990 1998 2012 2015
Year
5.19. 2015.
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2015. , ( 5.19).
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141
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142
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USD)
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4.
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,
,
, (a
).
[86],
(, ~64%, ~18%).
( [Ar = 6,92%
48,5%] [Wr = 31% 51,7%], [Hrd = 2.850 9.940 kJ/
kg] ,
-
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.
( 0,99
)
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(
0,99) ( .1.2)
.
a C = 63,3%,
H = 5,9%.
149
.1.1. Hd Sagr [%]
Hd [kJ/kg] = 297,8 . Sagr [%] - 2829,6
.1.2. [%]
100 Wr Ar [%]
,
.1.3.
.
150
.1.3.
:
C[%] = 2,3718 Hd [MJ/kg] + 4,2637
[60] ( ):
C[%] = 2,333 Hd [MJ/kg] + 5,511
C[%] = 2,344 Hd [MJ/kg] + 5,056
C[%] = 2,4 Hd [MJ/kg] + 4,123
C[%] = 2,334 Hd [MJ/kg] + 5,786
.
,
[90]:
C[%] = 2,2477 Hd [MJ/kg] + 5,8216
30
[90]:
C[%] = 2,3878 Hd [MJ/kg] + 4,6548
[90],
[60]
30 .
151
:
[tC/TJ]=10C[%] / Hd[MJ/kg] = 23,718 + 42,637 / Hd [MJ/kg]
.1.4.
.1.4, 30
.
(. )
25,42 [tC/TJ] (Hd = 25 [MJ/
kg]), 25,8 [tC/
TJ].
26,2 [tC/TJ], 17,18 [MJ/kg].
(6 Hd 10 [MJ/kg]),
( 30,8 28)
27,6 [tC/TJ].
.1.4.
[60].
, ,
[60],
. ,
.
152
,
6 12/kg,
,
[90]:
[tC/TJ] = 35,242 - 0,6941 Hd [MJ/kg]
30
[90]:
[tC/TJ] = 34,454 - 0,5843 Hd [MJ/kg]
, .1.5. 30
,
Hd,
Hd = 6 10 /kg.
, ,
Hd = 6 10 /kg
:
[tC/TJ] = 34,407 - 0,5891 Hd [MJ/kg]
.1.5.
153
2.
E GHG
1990.
Gg
. .
CO2eq
N2O ( )
4.D. N2O 6.770,9 8,4% 48,7% 100%
154
11.A.4
: / CO2 1.095,8 1,4% 92,3% 12%
. /
N2O
44.B. N2O 918,0 1,1% 93,4% 70%
11.A.1
CO2 CO2 868,4 1,1% 94,5% 12%
.
CH4
4.B. CH4 592,8 0,7% 95,2% 50%
N2O
2.B. N2O 549,3 0,7% 95,9% 25%
155
3.
-
1990. 1998.
(Reference
Approach) (Sectorial Approach)
GHG 1990. ( 1998.) . , ,
( ) ,
,
. .
, 565.481t
( 15.211,43),
, , 1
. , ,
, . ,
.
,
, . CO2
2, .
,
1
, (Naphta), (Lubricants), ,
.
, . (
-
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2 , 1
CO2 .
1998. .
156
1 [TJ]
1990.
1.A.1. 32.593,87 317.578,67 22.819,50 372.992,04
1.A.2. 33.680,07 19.985,95 33.396,77 87.062,79
1.A.3. 80.670,20 0,00 112,00 80.782,40
1.A.4.a. 32.198,36 4.958,28 9.460,09 46.617,33
1.A.4.b. 7.352,97 36.853,42 20.232,72 64.439,11
1.A.4.c. 14.864,32 23,63 199,67 15.087,61
1.A.
201.360,38 379.399,94 86.220,95 666.981,28
6.478,93 6.478,93
248.373,35 393.472,74 93.029,61 734.875,69
48.297,85 15.211,43 6.808,67 70.317,95
,
200.075,50 378.261,31 86.220,94 664.557,74
100(/ -1) [%] -0,64% -0,3% -0,36%
.3.1. 1 E 1990.
CO2
458,61 458,61
CO2 15.319,32 41.625,20 5.067,45 62.011,97
CO2 2 1.612,46 1.612,46
CO2 ,
15.319,32 40.012,74 5.067,45 60.399,51
100(/ -1) [%] 5,53% 0,21% 5,29% 1,92%
157
1 TJ
1998.
1.A.1. 25.402,98 295.997,05 17.747,00 339.147,04
1.A.2. 17.383,93 6.198,73 27.259,09 50.841,75
1.A.3. 54.671,02 0,00 88,40 54.759,42
1.A.4.a. 3.922,03 9.838,79 9.209,07 22.969,89
1.A.4.b. 2.483,87 21.504,63 18.418,14 42.406,64
1.A.4.c. 5.123,87 29,71 149,97 5.303,55
1.A. 515.
108.987,70 333. 568,91 72.871,68
428,29
2.628,18 2.628,18
119.860,92 346.865,65 83.140,20 549.866,77
9.398,35 13.254,89 9.731,34 32.384,58
,
110.462,57 333.610,76 73.408,86 517.482,19
100(/ -1) [%] 1,35% 0,01% 0,74% 0,40%
.3.3. 1 1998.
158
4
1.
Business as usual,
2015. , 2012.
700750MWel, 4.800GWh)
33,5%. 1.078
USD.
o
700-750MWe, 4800GWh)
33,5%,
43%.
1,470 USD.
MWe 710 710
GWh/ 4.800 4.800
h/ 6.760 6.760
% 33,5 43
% 77,18 77,18
TJ/ 51.582,09 40.186,05
Hd (GJ/t) 7,466 7,466
USD/GJ 2,1 2,1
Mt/ 6,909 5,3825
M USD 1.078 1.470 +392
35 35
M USD 65,835 89,775 +23,94
159
2.
Business as usual ,
2015. (
1200 GWh ) 500MWe,
3.400 GWh, . 3.400 1.200 = 2.200GWh)
33,5%.
, 2015.
1..200GWh,
1,96t 1.634Gg CO2eq/
- .
~710GWh ( )
15W.
2.730 USD/kWe.
MWe 150 240
GWh/ 710 710
h/ 4.800 3.000
% 29,5 100
% 54,8 34,25
TJ/ 8.664,41
-
Hd (GJ/t) 7,466
USD/GJ 2,1
Mt/ 1,16
M USD 63 655,2 +592,2
15 35
M USD 6,72 40,0134 +33,2934
. / M USD 2,31 1,12 1,19
. M USD 18,1958 0 18,1958
M USD 27,2258 41,1334 13,9076
: 13.9076 M US$/0,966987t CO2eq = 14,38 USD/t CO2eq
160
3.
-
2015. 490 + 2.200GWh
() 500MWe,
(- ).
380W 230Wt.
615GWht,
2.690GWhe, 420.000tn.
280 USD. ,
()
/ ,
(CDM).
MWe 500 380
GWhe/ 2.690 2.690
h/ 5.380 7.080
% 33,5 55
% 61,42 80,8
TJ/ 28.907,46 17.607,27
Hd (GJ/t) 7,466 34 MJ/m3
US$/GJ 2,1 14
Mt/ 3,872 517,860 Mm3
M USD 770 280 490
35 35
M USD 47,0246 17,0996 29,925
. / M USD 19,04 2,1 16,94
. M USD 60,704 246,498 185,794
M USD 126,7686 265,6976 138,929
: 13,9076 M US$/2,242459t CO2eq = 61,95 USD/t CO2eq
161
4.
I
,
:
x /a ,
, (. /
),
x Low
NOx
- 620W,
x ( 50%
40% )
.
2 (
34,2% 36,2%) 620W
8.000GWh 0,624t . CO2 519Gg CO2/
.
MWe 2x618 2x618
GWh/ 2x4.000 2x4.000
h/ 6.500 6.500
% 34,2 36,2
% 74,2 74,2
TJ/ 2x42.105,26 2x39.779,0
Hd (GJ/t) 7,466 7,466
USD/GJ 2,1 2,1
Mt/ 2x5,640 2x5,328
M USD 161 +161
15 15
M USD 0 17,1738 +17,1738
. / M USD 48,44 43,82 4,62
. M USD 176,8424 167,0718 9,7706
M USD 225,2824 228,065 2,7832
CO2 (EF=107,8315 t CO2/TJ) t CO2 8,5789 501689
N2O (EF=1,4 kg N2O/TJ)t tN2O 117,895 111,381 6,514
CH4 (EF=1 kg CH4/TJ)t CH4 tCH4 84,2105 79,558 4,6525
.(EF = 158kgCH4/TJ) tCH4 13.305,26 12.570,16 735,1
MtCO2eq 9,3983 8,8790 0,519243
: 2,7832 M US$/0,519243 t CO2eq = 5,36 USD/ t CO2eq
162
5.
II
,
-
:
/ ,
, (. /
),
Low
NOx
300W,
( 50%
40% )
-.
2
300W ( 30,5% 32,5%) 1,28 t/
- 1.070Gg CO2/.
MWe 8x308 8x308
GWh/ 8x1.650 8x1.650
h/ 5.800 5800
% 30,5 32,5
% 66,2 66,2
TJ/ 8x19.475,41 8x18.276,92
Hd (GJ/t) 7,466 7,466
USD/GJ 2,1 2,1
Mt/ 8x2,608 8x2,448
M USD 350 +350
15 15
M USD 0 37,333 +37,333
. / M USD 104,44 87,878 16,562
. M USD 327,1856 307,048 20,1376
M USD 431,6256 432,259 0,6334
CO2 (EF=107,8315 t CO2/TJ) t CO2 16,800 15,766 0,501 689
N2O (EF=1,4 kg N2O/TJ)t tN2O 218,125 204,702 6,514
CH4 (EF=1 kg CH4/TJ)t CH4 tCH4 155,803 146,215 4,6525
.(EF = 158kgCH4/TJ) tCH4 24.616,92 23.102,03 735,1
MtCO2eq 17,388 16,318 1,07
: 0,6334 M US$/1,07 t CO2eq = 0,59 USD/ t CO2eq
163
a
2015. ,
1,5265 + 1,16 + 3,872 + 0,624 + 1,28 = 8,4625t
1.268,5 + +967,0 + 2.242,4 + 519,2 + 1.070 = 6.067,1Gg CO2eq .
2,916 USD
.
(
) 3.
.
:
164
11.
11.
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