Pre-modern Era Roman Era

1770 1770 1840

1800s 1830 1882

Past, Present, and Future

Energy Use
Sources: Textbook, Franklin Institute,
DOE

1900s 1930s 1970s 2000s

1920s 1950s 1990s

1
 Learning Objectives
The energy needs throughout history.
Current energy distribution and relationship to
economic, geographical, climate, and industrial factors.
The principles of exponential growth.
The Hubbert model of resource utilization.
Resource limitations to energy production and use.
Limits of technology on energy production and use.
Economic factors that limit energy use.
Social factors affecting energy production.
Environmental aspects of energy use.
Political factors affecting energy use.
The integration of new energy technologies with existing
technology.

2
 Energy History Pre-modern Era

Standard of living and quality of life are proportional to

the quantity of energy use.
Widely held belief: energy=progress=civilization
(history proves this theory).
Pre-modern era reliance on chemical energy from
food intake (max power = 200 W) for human power
Then, focus moved to extraction of "fossil/organic
energy sources (wood, peat, coal) for heating/ cooking/
lighting/ industrial processes.

3
 Energy History Water Power

End of the Roman era - waterwheels powered, various

processes (crush grain, tan leather, smelt and shape
iron, saw wood, etc.)
By the time of the Industrial Revolution, industry
depended almost entirely on water power for energy.
The first hydroelectric power plant in the world was
opened in Appleton, WI in 1882.
The Vulcan Street Plant used Edisons dynamo generators (12.5
kW).

4
 Energy History Steam Power

The modern era began with the 18th century introduction

of steam power to English coal mines.
The steam engine permanently established the link
between fossil energy resources and industrialization.
England and European countries turned to coal for
steam fuel before 1800
By the mid-19th century Appalachian coal succeeded wood as
steam fuel in the eastern US.

5
 Energy History Coal

The roots of today's primary use of coal

electric power generation can be traced back
to Thomas Edison.
In 1882 Edison started the first practical coal-fired
electric generating station (Pearl Street) to supply
electricity to some residents of New York City.
In 1901, General Electric built the first coal-fired
AC power plant at Ehrenfeld, PA.
The plant, designed to eliminate the difficulties in
long-distance DC transmission, was built for the
Webster Coal and Coke Company.
6
 Energy History Petroleum
The high cost of coal combined with discoveries of petroleum
in PA, TX and CA led to the development of oil as steam fuel
during the first half of the 20th century.

Spindletop (1901) Pumpjack

The worlds first gas-turbine power plant was built in
Switzerland in in 1939 (4 MW).
From 1904 to 1908, 241 manufacturing firms went into
business in the US.
One of these was the Ford Motor Company (June 1903)
7
 Energy History Electrification

1879 - Thomas Edison invents the incandescent light

bulb that could be used for about 40 hours without
burning out.
By end of the 19th century, the development of electric
motors ushered in the modern era.
Edisons Pearl Street Station opened in NY in 1882.
By the end of the 19th century, electricity transmitted
from far away hydroelectric and steam-turbine plants
was powering machinery.

8
Energy History Nuclear Age

The world's first nuclear power plant becomes

operational in Obninsk, outside of Moscow (6 MW).
The first large-scale nuclear plant began operation
in Shippingport, PA in December 1957 (60 MW)
The plant supplied electricity to the Pittsburgh area.
Decommissioned in 1982.
There are now 104 nuclear power reactors in 31
states
There are 69 pressurized water reactors (PWRs) and 35
boiling water reactors (BWRs)

9
 Energy History Nuclear Age

By the end of the 1970s, earthquake safety became an

issue for Californians
A moratorium was placed on building new nuclear power plants.

The 1979 Three Mile Island nuclear plant accident in

Pennsylvania
Created a negative stimulus.

Disposal of radioactive nuclear waste was an additional

issue
This effectively ended new nuclear power plant construction in
the United States.

10
Current Energy Use

11
Energy use per capita in different
countries

12
 Factors affecting energy use
Direct relationship between per capita GDP and
per capita energy use
Other factors affecting per capita energy use
Climate
Population density
Types of industry

13
Current (and Past) Energy
Utilization and Statistics

14
 Oil

Oil

Coal, 1850

Oil, 1860
Gas, 1885 Gas
Hydro, 1890 Coal

Coal

Nuke, 1957
Wood Hydro

Notice chart does not show other renewable energy sources (solar,
wind, biomass, geothermal, etc.) Why?
15
US primary energy production, consumption, imports, and exports 1949-2011

16
US primary energy consumption per capita, 1949-2011

17
US primary energy consumption by major source, 1949-2011
Fossil 2011
80 Q

Fossil 1949
29 Q

18
19
US electricity net generation by source, 1949-2011

Coal

Gas
Nuke
Renew
Oil

20
 US Electricity Generation by
Source, 1999
Total electric output: 3,690 TWh (1012 Wh).
Compare with data from 2010

Non-fossil: Other fuel

Nuclear: 20% 1%
Hydro: 9%
Non-fossil
Biomass: 1% 30% Coal
51%
Natural
Gas
15%

Petroleum
3%
Source: EIA

21
 US Electricity Capacity and
Generation by Source, 2010

Renewable,
Nuclear, 9% Petroluem, 10%
1% Nuclear,
Renewable,
Natural 20%
18% Natural
gas, 38%
Petroluem, gas, 24%
5%
Coal, 30% Coal, 45%

Summer capacity in (original data in GW). Total generation (original data in trillion kWh).
Total capacity: 1,039 GW Total generation: 4.125 trillion kWh
Source: EIA Source: EIA

Note the difference in percentages for each source

22
Estimated US total1 Carbon Dioxide emissions from energy consumption by end-use
sector2, 1949-2011

Transp.

Ind.
Res.

Comm.

23
Estimated US Sulfur Dioxide emissions from energy consumption1, 1989-2010

24
 Estimated U.S. Energy Use in 2008: ~99.2 Quads

42

99
25
 Estimated U.S. Energy Use in 2009: ~94.6 Quads

40

95
26
 Estimated U.S. Energy Use in 2010: ~98 Quads

42

98
27
2010 US Energy Flow. Source: US DOE 28
 Estimated U.S. Energy Use in 2011: ~97.3 Quads

41.7

97.3
29
Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector, 2011(Quadrillion Btu)
Source: EIA, 2011.
30
Renewable Energy as Share of Total Primary Energy Consumption, 2011
Source: EIA, 2011 stats
31
 Estimated U.S. Energy Use in 2012: ~95.1 Quads

37

95
Almost 60% of primary energy is lost due in conversion processes
(mostly due to efficiency of heat engines)
32
 Per capita primary energy use
Typical single family (two individuals) primary
energy use (typical of Northern United States)
gasoline for transportation 9.81010 J
oil for residential heating 1.041011 J
electricity (at 40% efficiency) 1.11011 J
This gives a total average power consumption
per person of 5.0 kW
This is less than 1/2 of the actual number
Remainder is used by
industry/business/government etc.

33
Projected Energy Consumption

34
World Energy Consumption

35
Worldwide primary energy production , 2005. (Total =
486 EJ or 461 Q, 86% fossil, 14% other non-fossil)

Other,
14% Crude Oil,
Natural 36%
Gas, 23%

Coal, 27%

36
Future Use of Energy

37
 Energy Growth

In order to extrapolate energy use into the future

we need to understand how to model growth
Linear growth
Exponential growth

38
 Linear Growth Model
Linear growth is described as:
dN
N (=
t ) N0 + t (1)
dt
where t is the time in years, N(t) is the annual energy
consumption in year t.

39
 Exponential Growth Model
dN
Exponential growth is described as: = aN (2)
dt
Eq. (2) may be integrated to yield: N ( t ) = N 0 exp ( at ) (3)
Where a is a parameter that fits the growth to a historic
data trend.

40
Semi-log Plot of Exponential Growth
It is often convenient to present a quantity that grows
exponentially on a semi-log plot

N ( t ) log ( N 0 ) + at log ( e )
log = (4)

41
 Example: Doubling time for Exponential
Growth
So, when t = 0, N(t)|t=0 = initial value N (= ) N0
t 0=
If we wish to find the time to double the quantity:
N (t ) ln ( 2 )
= exp ( at ) 2
= tD =
N0 a
Assume that a particular quantity has a doubling time of
20 years. If the quantity has a value of 106 at time t = 0,
what is its value after 5 years?
ln ( 2 ) 0.693
=a = = 0.0347 y-1 ; =
tD 20 ( y )
N 0 106 ( )
The quantity at t = 5 years is:
N ( t == ( ( ) )
5 ) 106 exp 0.0347 y-1 5 ( y ) =
1.189 106
42
 Defining Growth Rate
We may define a growth rate, R (in per cent per unit time:
e.g. % per year).
= R 100 exp ( a ) 1 (5)
Prove Eq. (5) noting that= N 2 N1
%R 100
N1
Applying this to actual data
World population since year 1000
(world population)

43
Extrapolation of world population
Assuming exponential growth at 1.6% per year,
doubling time is 43 years!

Total mass of humans assumes a mass of 70 kg per person.

44
 Sustainable world population
Current world population is about 7 billion
Estimates of sustainable world population, probably not
much more than 10 billion (strain on food production).
Current growth rate cannot continue for very long (see
Fig. 2.11).

45
 Example 2-2
A quantity grows at a rate of 1% per year. When will it
reach 10 times its current value?
=
For a growth rate of 1% per year: R 100 exp ( a ) 1
R
a =ln 1 + =ln (1 + 0.01) =9.95 10 3
y 1

100

N (t ) 1 N (t )
Since = exp ( at =
) t ln
N0 a N0
N (t )
Using = 10
N0
ln (10 )
=t = 3 1
231 y
9.95 10 y
46
 Goals for Future Energy
1. Manage natural resource use
a. Resource extraction: fossil fuels, uranium
b. Land consumption: solar, wind
2. Minimize energy consumption
Reduce security threat due to energy dependency
3. Maximize energy efficiency
4. Minimize pollution: air, water, solid waste
5. Stabilize concentration of carbon in atmosphere
Recommended reading:
Hoffert, M I et al (2002) Advanced technology paths to global climate stability:
energy for a greenhouse planet Science v298, pp.981-987.

47
 Future world energy use
Increase in world energy use is due to
increase in world population
increased per capita energy use
Exponential growth of world population cannot
continue at the same rate.
Increased per capita energy use is due mostly to
increase in developing countries.

48
Predicted energy trends in some
countries

49
 Hubbert model
Developed by M. King Hubbert in 1956
General assumptions
Utilization of a useful
resource begins slowly.
Efficient infrastructure need
to be developed.
Resource utilization
increases fast when
infrastructure has been
developed.
Utilization decreases (and
eventually stops) when the
resource becomes scarce.
Quantity of a resource used per unit time as a
function of time

50
 Total quantity of resource used
Total quantity used is the integral of the quantity per unit time

dQ
Q (t ) =
t
dt (6) Typical sigmoidal behavior for
0 dt resource utilization.
As time increases, the curve
asymptotically approaches a
value Q.
This is the total amount of the
resource available (or at least
economically viable).
Requires knowledge of the width
of the distribution
May be gained from
historical data on use rates
This approach will be discussed in
the next chapter.
Amount of a resource used up to a time, t.
51
 Limits to Growth
Predicting future conditions on earth (population,
natural resources is difficult.
Our energy utilization habits will determine the
environment of the future.
Meadows, Meadows, Randers, and Behrens
[1972] theorized that variables such as resource
depletion change exponentially in time,
whereas technologys ability to increase
resources is linear.
Widely accepted, but has its deficiencies.

52
 Limits to Growth, contd.
Let R = resource quantity
Let C = rate of using the resource = constant
Then the duration of its availability, t0 , is given by:
R
t0 =
C
If the use grows exponentially with a growth rate of r,
then the total resource can be written as the integral over
the exponentially increasing use rate (beginning as C at
t=0)
1 rR
(
C rt0
)
t0
= = e 1 =
t0 ln + 1
rt
R Ce dt
r C
0 r

53
 Limits to Growth - Example
Assume an initial quantity of a resource of 1012 kg
Rate of consumption = constant = 109 kg per year.
Find t0
At a constant rate of consumption, resource will last for:
1012 kg
=t0 = 9 1
1, 000 y
10 kg y
However, if consumption increases at an annual rate of
5% or r = 0.05 y-1, then the lifetime of the resource is:

1 0.05 y 1 1000 y
t0 1
ln=
+ 1 78 y
0.05 y 1
54
 Challenges for sustainable energy
development

Availability of the necessary resources.

Availability of the necessary technology.
Consideration of economic factors.
Consideration of social factors.
Environmental impact.
Consideration of political factors.
Ability to integrate new technology with existing
technology.

55
Availability of the necessary resources

A number of alternative energy technologies require

materials with limited availability.
Some examples of materials that may be a concern are

Lithium for fusion energy

Lithium for rechargeable batteries
Largest known deposits of lithium are in Bolivia and Chile
Rare earth elements for generators
China produced about 90% of the world's supply of rare earth
element ores
Indium, gallium and selenium for photovoltaic cells

56
Availability of the necessary resources:
Materials production for photovoltaics
CIGS cells vs. Si Cells
Comparison of current annual production of some
materials of relevance to PV cells and requirements to
fulfill world energy needs

57
Availability of the necessary technology:
Technological Limitations
The development of renewable energy is an
inter-disciplinary field.
biochemistry (for biofuel synthesis)
semiconductor physics (for photovoltaics)
plasma and nuclear physics (for fusion energy)
surface science and materials research (for tidal
energy).

58
Availability of the necessary technology:
Technological Limitations

Example: Development of high temperature

superconductors for generators and power distribution
lines.
An example of a new technology that is important for
cost-effective development of alternative energy
technologies.

59
Availability of the necessary technology:
Technological Limitations
The development of high-temperature superconductors
(HTS)
Superconductors for low-loss power transmission cables,
superconducting magnet energy storage (SMES), light-
weight, high-output generators for wind energy
applications, etc.
In 1987, researchers discovered superconductivity in the
yttrium-barium-copper-oxide system at 92 K.
Because this pushed the superconducting transition
temperature above the temperature of liquid nitrogen, it
opened up many possibilities.

60
Availability of the necessary technology:
Technological Limitations
Unfortunately, HTS materials are ceramics
Fabricating them in the form of flexible wires (for
power lines, magnetic coils, etc.) is not
straightforward.

61
 Some technological challenges for
alternative energy production

New organic PV cells

Challenge improve efficiency

Methods for production of cellulosic ethanol

Challenge - It costs more than either corn ethanol or gasoline

Efficient non-lithium-based batteries for widespread EV

Challenge performance unproven.

Economical and efficient methods for direct hydrogen

production
Challenge decrease cost

62
Consideration of economic factors

Commercialization of energy technologies

requires a consideration of economics to
determine viability
Technologies must be competitive in order to be
attractive to producers and consumers.
Cost per unit electricity generated must include
three components
Cost of fuel
Cost of infrastructure operation and maintenance
Initial infrastructure cost amortized over its lifetime

63
 Economic Factors, contd.
The cost per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated
is given as
I CRF
C=
C fuel + Coperating +
Rf ( 8760 h/y )
(2.11)

Where Cfuel is the cost per kWh for fuel

Coperating is the op. and maint. (O&M) cost per
kWh
I is the total capital installation cost
R is the total maximum capacity (in kW)
f is the capacity factor, and CRF is the capital
recovery factor.
64
 Economic Factors:
Fuel and operating costs
Fuel (operating) cost is more significant for some
technologies than others.
It is a factor for coal, natural gas and nuclear
Not a factor for hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, etc.

Other operating costs (e.g. waste disposal)

Low for hydroelectric
Significant for nuclear.

65
 Economic Factors, contd.
The last term on the right hand side of Eq. (2.11) is the
contribution that comes from the capital investment costs
amortized over the payback period for the facility.
The capacity factor is the fraction of the total theoretical
capacity that is actually achieved.

66
 Economic Factors, contd.
CRF takes into account the accrued interest on the
capital investment:
i (1 + i )
T

CRF = (2.12)
(1 + i )T 1

where i is the annual interest rate expressed as a
fraction (i.e., 5.1% would be 0.051).
T is the payback period.
The payback period should be shorter than its life expectancy.
15 years is a common payback period of many facilities.
See Example 2.3

67
 Example 2-3
Calculate the effects of capital recovery costs on the price
per kWh of electricity produced by a 1.5-MW wind turbine
running at a 35% capacity factor. The total installation cost
was $2.3M and the interest rate is 6.2% over a payback
period of 15 years.

Solution: From Eqs. (2.11) and (2.12):

i (1 + i )
T
I CRF CRF =
C=
C fuel + Coperating + (1 + i )T 1
Rf ( 8760 h/y )

i (1 + i )
T i =0.062; T = 15 y
I
=
$0.052/kWh
Rf ( 8760 h/y ) (1 + i ) 1
T I =$2,300,000;
R = 1,500 kW
f = 0.35 y-1
68
 Economic Factors, contd.
We may have positive or negative factors on the
right-hand side of eq. (2.11).
Positive factors (i.e., those that increase the cost per
kWh of electricity) include decommissioning costs at
the end-of-life cycle.
Example: radioactive waste disposal for nuclear plants
Negative factors (i.e., those that decrease the cost
per kWh of electricity) include waste heat recovery
sales and end-of-life cycle salvage recoveries.
For coal-fired cogeneration plants, excess heat from
burning coal (i.e., hot steam or water exhausted from the
turbines) is sold for heating buildings CHP.
Rare (and valuable) elements such as indium, gallium, or
selenium may be recovered from photovoltaic cells at the
end of their life salvage.
69
Infrastructure costs

70
Overall cost per kWh

71
 Electricity cost in some countries

Variations between
countries can result
from different
generating
methods and also
from national
economics.

72
 Main options / main obstacle for Future
Energy Use
1. Fossil energy (w/sequestration): obstacles?
Environmental
Political
2. Nuclear energy: obstacles?
Political/social
Technological
Waste disposal
3. Renewables: obstacles?
Political
Social
Technological
Economic

73
 Adv./Disadv.
Basic advantages Of three types
and disadvantages of threeof
types of
primaryprimary
energy: fossil,
energynuclear and renewable
sources

Fossil
Fossil

Nuclear
Nuclear

Renew-
Renewable
able

74
 Consideration of social factors

Public opinion can influence the development of certain

technologies and government energy policy.

Nuclear energy has generated more public interest than

most other energy approaches.

75
 Environmental impact

Renewable energy sources can contribute to

greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in two ways

During the manufacturing (material and infrastructure)

Can be substantial because of the low energy density of most
renewable sources.

During the operation of the facility.

Usually small.

76
Greenhouse gas (CO2) emissions from
different energy sources

77
World CO2 Emissions

78
 Scenarios for CO2 Stabilization
Scenarios: 350, 450, 550, 650, 750 ppmv
Economic growth 2-3% per year
Sustained decline of 1%/year in energy intensity
(energy use / GDP)
Current concentration ~385 ppmv (preindustrial
~260 ppmv)
Holding at 550 ppmv is a major challenge
Cuts to 450 or 350 ppmv are Herculean

ppmv parts per million by volume

79
Measured CO2 levels

Source: NOAA
80
 Current vs. Future Power Requirement

Today (worldwide), primary energy consumption

~ 12 TW (85% fossil)
Stabilization at 350 550 ppmv CO2 will require
15-30 TW of emission free power by mid-century

81
 Consideration of political factors
National energy policies deal with issues such as:

Establishment of energy efficiency and environmental

standards

Specification of policies (subsidies, incentives, tax

exemptions) to promote improved energy utilization

Participation in funding programs for energy-related

R&D

Development of energy-related treaties and

agreements with other countries

See, for example, the 1992 Energy Policy Act

82
 Solving the Problem by
Improving Efficiency?
Some examples:
Electric generators 98-99% efficient
Electric motors 90-97% efficient
Heat engines (35-50% efficient, 2nd law applies to steam,
gas)
Diesel engine 30-35%, gasoline engine 15-25%
Fuel cells 50-55% now, perhaps 70% later; H2 reformers ~
80%
Renewables: PV: 15 to 20%; Wind turbines 30-40%
Lighting: Fluorescent lights 10-12%; Incandescent light 2-5%

Problem: many technologies either already near max efficiency,

or have limits, so efficiency alone cannot solve the problem
completely
83
Goals for Carbon-free Energy from Fossil
Fuels
Want 10-30 TW emission free energy in ~40
years
In terms of abundance, coal > oil & gas (wrong
direction!)
Opportunity: CO2 capture and sequestration:
Coal >> reformer >> H2 + CO2
CO2 is then sequestered
De-carbonization of coal is linked to
sequestration

84