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Tom Campbell Leads North Dakota U.S.

Senate Race

Tom Campbell for North Dakota to me 9:00 AM

New poll shows Tom Campbell leads North Dakota U.S. Senate Race.
Full poll details below:

To: Interested Parties
From: 1892 Polling
Re: Tom Campbell Leads North Dakota U.S. Senate Race
Date: October 23, 2017

Overview

1892 polled North Dakota’s United States Senate race October 11-12 using a
sample size of n=500 likely general election voters and n=400 likely
Republican primary voters. The poll has a margin of error of ±4.9% for
general election results and ±4.0% for primary results. 1892 previously
conducted a poll from May 30 – June 1, 2017, with identical sample sizes and
methodology. 1892 has a proven history of accurately polling in North
Dakota’s 2016 Governor’s race in both its primary and general elections.

Key Findings

• Tom Campbell leads Senator Heidi Heitkamp 44-41% in a General Election.

• Tom Campbell wins a 6-way primary election with 32% of the vote.

• Tom Campbell defeats Rick Berg by 11% in a head-to-head primary
election.

• President Trump remains extremely popular in North Dakota.

Primary Ballot

Tom Campbell now wins the Republican Primary for United States Senate,
with a 25% increase in ballot movement. During this same time, Rick Berg
has dropped 15% and Rick Becker has dropped 6%. Other rumored potential
candidates Kathy Neset, Tammy Miller, and Kelly Schmidt poll in the low
single digits.

In a head-to-head matchup against Rick Berg, Tom Campbell leads by 11%
despite the fact that Berg has higher name identification than Campbell.
Among voters who have “heard of both” candidates, Campbell’s lead grows,
and he defeats Berg by 22%. Among voters who have an “opinion of both”
candidates, Campbell leads by 38%.

These results combined with the fact that Campbell also has more room to
grow his name I.D. strongly suggest that Campbell’s ballot position can grow
even stronger against other potential Republicans.

The bottom-line: voters know Berg better than they do Campbell, but
Campbell already easily defeats Berg. As Campbell becomes better known
his lead against Berg should increase further.

General Election Ballot

Tom Campbell previously trailed Heidi Heitkamp, but today now leads her by
3% despite Heitkamp having higher name identification. Among voters who
have “heard of both” Campbell and Heitkamp, Campbell leads by 6%.
Among voters who have an opinion of both candidates, Campbell leads by
10%. Again, this suggests that Campbell’s message and background has wide
appeal and he still has a lot of potential to grow as more voters learn about
him.

President Trump in North Dakota

In the Presidential election, President Trump won North Dakota by 36% -- his
second strongest performance. Our research shows that President Trump
remains popular.

Additionally, voters in North Dakota want a U.S. Senator who will support
President Trump’s agenda.

The Bottom Line

Tom Campbell has surged to the front of the field in the primary election for
U.S. Senate and is well-positioned to win the Republican nomination and
defeat Senator Heitkamp in November 2018.

Additionally, even without any paid contrast, Senator Heitkamp’s support is
faltering, and Campbell is surging. Further, with President Trump’s strong
popularity within the state, the ever-increasing conservative gravitational pull
of the state, and Campbell’s ascent, it is clear that Senator Heitkamp is the
nation’s most vulnerable Democrat in 2018.

About 1892

1892 provides public opinion research and polling, political consulting,
campaign management, and counsel at the highest levels of American
government and the political world. 1892 conducts polls for senators,
governors and candidates for President. They have conducted extensive
accurate polling in North Dakota for statewide races, state legislative races,
and local city ballot measures throughout the state.

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PAID FOR BY TOM CAMPBELL FOR NORTH DAKOTA

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