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2017 NEW ZEALAND GENERAL ELECTION

ANALYSIS OF RESULTS BY ELECTORATE,


AREA AND REGION

OCTOBER 2017

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


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CONTENTS
CONTENTS ....................................................................................................................................................... 2
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................... 3
2017 OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS ............................................................................................................ 4
OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS CHANGES 2014 TO 2017 .......................................................................... 5
2017 PARTY VOTE BY REGION ...................................................................................................................... 6
2017 PARTY VOTE BY AREA .......................................................................................................................... 7
PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2014 2017 BY REGION ......................................................................................... 8
PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2014 2017 BY AREA .............................................................................................. 9
NATIONAL 2017 PARTY VOTE ...................................................................................................................... 10
NATIONAL 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ............................................................................................ 11
NATIONAL 2017 ELECTORATE VOTE .......................................................................................................... 12
NATIONAL 2017 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE ................................................................................ 13
NATIONAL PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17 ............................................................................................. 14
NATIONAL PARTY VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 14 TO 17 ........................................................................... 15
NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17 ................................................................................. 16
NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 14 TO 17 ................................................................ 17
NATIONAL 2017 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE .................................................................................. 18
NATIONAL 2017 ELECTORATE MARGINS ................................................................................................... 19
2017 ELECTORATE MAJORITIES ................................................................................................................. 20
LABOUR 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ............................................................................................... 21
LABOUR 2017 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE ................................................................................... 22
LABOUR 2017 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE ..................................................................................... 23
LABOUR 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE/LAB + GREEN PARTY VOTE ............................................................ 24
LABOUR PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17.................................................................................................. 25
LABOUR ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17 .................................................................................... 26
GREENS 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ............................................................................................... 27
GREEN PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17.................................................................................................... 28
NZ FIRST 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE .............................................................................................. 29
NZ FIRST PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17 ................................................................................................ 30
TOP 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE....................................................................................................... 31
MAORI PARTY 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ..................................................................................... 32
MAORI PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17..................................................................................................... 33
ACT 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ....................................................................................................... 34
ACT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17 ........................................................................................................ 35
RIGHT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (National/ACT) .......................................................................... 36
CENTRE 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (NZ First/Maori/TOP) ............................................................ 37
LEFT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (Labour/Greens).......................................................................... 38
RIGHT LEFT 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ..................................................................................... 39
RIGHT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17 ..................................................................................................... 40
LEFT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17 ........................................................................................................ 41
2017 VALID (PARTY) VOTERS ...................................................................................................................... 42
2017 TURNOUT .............................................................................................................................................. 43
2017 PARTY VOTE PLACINGS ...................................................................................................................... 44
2017 ELECTORATE VOTE PLACINGS .......................................................................................................... 45

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


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INTRODUCTION

This document shows results for National, Labour, Greens, NZ First, TOP, Maori Party and ACT for the
country, by region and area and for each of the 71 electorates. Generally, each page has the electorates
ranked in order from best to worst for that particular criterion.

Electorates have been grouped into the five National Party Regions (plus a Maori Region) and also have
been grouped into Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Provincial, and Rural areas so results can be
compared for these groupings.

Parties have also been grouped together for bloc analysis. The following definitions have been used:

R = Right = National + ACT

C = Centre = NZ First + Maori Party + TOP

L = Left = Labour + Greens

R L = Gap between votes for the right and the left parties

Right parties are those who committed to a National-led Government.

Centre parties are those who said they could support either National or Labour, and were not ruled out by
either.

Left parties are those who generally would not support a National-led Government.

Inquiries or requests for further information are welcome.

David Farrar
October 2017

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


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2017 OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS


% of
% of all
Party effective Seat Electorate List Total
Party Party
Votes party Entitlement Seats Seats Seats
Votes
vote

National 1,152,075 44.45% 46.63% 56 41 15 56


Labour 956,184 36.89% 38.70% 46 29 17 46
NZ First 186,706 7.20% 7.56% 9 0 9 9
Greens 162,443 6.27% 6.58% 8 0 8 8
ACT 13,075 0.50% 0.53% 1 1 0 1
SUB-TOTAL 2,470,483 95.32% 100.00% 120 71 49 120
TOP 63,261 2.44%
Maori 30,580 1.18%
ALCP 8,075 0.31%
Conservative 6,253 0.24%
Mana 3,642 0.14%
Ban1080 3,005 0.12%
People's Party 1,890 0.07%
United Future 1,782 0.07%
Outdoors 1,620 0.06%
Democrats 806 0.03%
Internet 499 0.02%
TOTAL 2,591,896 100.00%

Right 44.95%
1,165,150
Centre 10.82%
280,547
Left 43.16%
1,118,627

RL 46,523 1.79%

The vote for centre-right parties was 2% higher than the vote for centre-left parties. Also of note is that National
got almost 47% of the effective vote.

The wasted vote was 4.7%, down from 6.2% in 2014. TOP were the highest of the parties that did not make
it.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


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OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS CHANGES 2014 TO 2017

2014
Party Party
2017 Electorate 2017 2014
Vote Vote %
Party Party Vote Electorate Electorate
Change
Vote % Change % Vote % Vote %
%

National -2.59% 44.45% 47.04% -1.90% 44.18% 46.08%


Labour 11.76% 36.89% 25.13% 3.62% 37.75% 34.13%
Greens -4.43% 6.27% 10.70% -0.15% 6.91% 7.06%
NZ First -1.46% 7.20% 8.66% 2.32% 5.45% 3.13%
ACT -0.19% 0.50% 0.69% -0.18% 1.00% 1.18%
SUB-TOTAL 3.09% 95.31% 92.22% 3.71% 95.29% 91.58%
Maori -0.14% 1.18% 1.32% 0.32% 2.11% 1.79%
Mana -1.28% 0.14% 1.42% -1.26% 0.31% 1.57%
United Future -0.15% 0.07% 0.22% -0.58% 0.05% 0.63%
Conservatives -3.73% 0.24% 3.97% -3.45% 0.00% 3.45%
TOP 2.44% 2.44% 1.03% 1.03%
Others -0.23% 0.62% 0.85% 0.23% 1.21% 0.98%
TOTAL 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Right -6.66% 45.26% 51.92% -6.11% 45.23% 51.34%


Centre 0.84% 10.82% 9.98% 3.67% 8.59% 4.92%
Left 6.05% 43.30% 37.25% 2.21% 44.97% 42.76%

RL -12.71% 1.96% 14.67% -8.32% 0.26% 8.58%

The gap between right and left on the party vote was just 2% in 2017, compared to 15% in 2014.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


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2017 PARTY VOTE BY REGION

Party Northern CNI LNI C/W Southern Maori

National 48.2% 51.5% 42.1% 46.4% 45.2% 7.2%


Labour 35.5% 30.1% 38.1% 36.1% 37.2% 60.1%
Greens 5.8% 4.3% 8.3% 6.7% 6.5% 6.1%
NZ First 6.6% 9.5% 6.8% 6.3% 6.9% 8.5%
Maori 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 12.2%
ACT 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
TOP 1.8% 2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%

Right 48.9% 52.0% 42.5% 46.8% 45.5% 7.3%


Centre 8.9% 12.6% 10.2% 9.3% 9.8% 23.4%
Left 41.3% 34.4% 46.4% 42.8% 43.7% 66.2%

-
RL 7.6% 17.6% -3.9% 4.0% 1.8%
58.9%

The above figures are on the boundaries of the five National Party Regions. The seven Maori seats are treated
as a de facto sixth Region to allow a cleaner comparison from Region to Region.

National got over 50% in the CNI Region. LNI was the lowest Region at 42.1%

LNI Region is the best area for Labour at 38.1% followed by Southern at 37.2%. They are weakest in CNI at
30.1%.

NZ First was strongest in CNI Region at 9.5%.

Support for the Greens was best in LNI at 8.3%.

TOP did best in the LNI Region at 3.0%.

The gap between National and Labour for each Region was:

Northern +12.7%
CNI +21.4%
LNI +4.0%
C/W +10.3%
Southern +8.0%

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


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2017 PARTY VOTE BY AREA

Party Akl Wlg Chch Prov Rural Maori

National 47.7% 36.8% 44.0% 45.0% 53.8% 7.2%


Labour 36.8% 41.2% 38.5% 36.9% 27.9% 60.1%
Greens 5.9% 11.7% 7.5% 5.5% 4.8% 6.1%
NZ First 5.7% 4.6% 5.4% 8.3% 9.4% 8.5%
Maori 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 12.2%
ACT 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
TOP 1.8% 4.1% 2.9% 2.5% 2.2% 2.7%

Right 48.4% 37.3% 44.4% 45.4% 54.3% 7.3%


Centre 8.0% 9.2% 8.6% 11.2% 11.9% 23.4%
Left 42.7% 52.9% 46.0% 42.4% 32.7% 66.2%

RL 5.7% -15.6% -1.6% 3.0% 21.6% -58.9%

Auckland is defined as the 21 seats in greater Auckland stretching from Rodney in the North to Papakura
in the South.
Wellington is the six seats South of and including Mana and Rimutaka.
Christchurch is the six seats wholly or mainly in Christchurch including Waimakariri and Port Hills.
Provincial are those 17 seats which have more than 50% of their population in minor cities such as Nelson,
New Plymouth, Dunedin, Hamilton, Napier etc.
Rural are the 14 seats where less than 50% of the population live in a city.

Labour is strongest in Wellington at 41.2% and weakest in rural NZ at 27.9%

National is lowest in Wellington at 36.8% and highest in rural NZ at 53.8%.

NZ First does very well in provincial and rural NZ and worst in Wellington.

Greens are high in Wellington at 11.7% and also Christchurch at 7.5%.

The gap between National and Labour for each area was:

Auckland +10.9%
Wellington -4.4%
Christchurch +5.5%
Provincial +8.1%
Rural +25.9%

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


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PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2014 2017 BY REGION

Party Northern CNI LNI C/W Southern Maori

National -1.1% -3.2% -3.6% -4.2% -3.3% -0.7%


Labour 9.4% 11.6% 11.7% 13.7% 12.6% 18.9%
Greens -3.8% -3.6% -4.6% -5.6% -5.8% -5.1%
NZ First -0.9% -1.7% -1.4% -1.5% -1.1% -4.5%
Maori 0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -1.8%
ACT -0.6% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
TOP 1.8% 2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%

Right -6.0% -8.2% -8.0% -8.5% -7.3% -1.4%


Centre -0.8% -1.8% -1.5% -1.6% -1.2% -6.3%
Left 4.6% 7.3% 6.3% 7.4% 6.0% 3.6%

- - -
RL -10.6% -13.3% -5.0%
15.5% 14.3% 15.9%

National fell 1.1% in Northern and 4.2% in Canterbury/Westland.

Labours biggest gain was 13.7% in C/W and smallest 9.4% in Northern.

The Greens dropped the most in Southern.

NZ First dropped the most in CNI and least in Northern.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


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PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2014 2017 BY AREA

Party Akl Wlg Chch Prov Rural Maori

National -0.9% -4.5% -4.5% -3.4% -2.9% -0.7%


Labour 9.1% 13.4% 14.1% 12.6% 11.4% 18.9%
Greens -3.8% -6.0% -5.9% -4.4% -3.9% -5.1%
NZ First -1.1% -1.8% -2.1% -1.5% -0.7% -4.5%
Maori 0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -1.8%
ACT -0.7% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
TOP 1.8% 4.1% 2.9% 2.5% 2.2% 2.7%

Right -5.7% -7.6% -8.4% -8.2% -8.1% -1.4%


Centre -1.0% -1.9% -2.2% -1.6% -0.9% -6.3%
Left 4.3% 6.4% 7.5% 7.4% 6.9% 3.6%

- - -
RL -10.0% -15.0% -5.0%
14.0% 15.9% 15.6%

National dropped the most (4.5%) in Wellington and Christchurch and the least (0.9%) in Auckland.

Labour gained the most (14.1%) in Christchurch and the least (9.1%) in Auckland.

Greens dropped 6.0% in Wellington but only 3.8% in Auckland.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


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NATIONAL 2017 PARTY VOTE


1 Rodney 27,010 37 Rotorua 17,390
2 Hunua 26,005 38 Port Hills 17,381
3 Selwyn 26,003 39 Hamilton East 17,380
4 Waikato 23,891 40 Hamilton West 17,119
5 Waitaki 23,685 41 East Coast 17,011
6 Tamaki 23,628 42 Whanganui 16,874
7 Bay of Plenty 23,164 43 Nelson 16,374
8 North Shore 23,009 44 Rimutaka 15,433
9 Epsom 22,875 45 Mt Roskill 15,248
10 Pakuranga 22,149 46 West Coast Tasman 15,122
11 East Coast Bays 22,006 47 Maungakiekie 14,542
12 Helensville 21,958 48 Te Atatu 14,514
13 Clutha Southland 21,915 49 New Lynn 14,503
14 Coromandel 21,786 50 Mana 14,305
15 Taupo 21,744 51 Palmerston North 14,276
16 Taranaki-King Country 21,466 52 Dunedin South 14,164
17 Botany 21,428 53 Christchurch Central 13,956
18 Waimakariri 21,398 54 Wigram 13,767
19 Tauranga 21,182 55 Wellington Central 13,156
20 Kaikoura 20,925 56 Mt Albert 13,112
21 Rangitata 20,106 57 Christchurch East 12,319
22 Wairarapa 19,750 58 Auckland Central 11,773
23 Upper Harbour 19,722 59 Rongotai 11,598
24 New Plymouth 19,517 60 Kelston 10,456
25 Rangitikei 19,472 61 Dunedin North 10,382
26 Papakura 19,464 62 Manurewa 8,109
27 Otaki 19,187 63 Manukau East 6,195
28 Tukituki 19,166 64 Mangere 4,864
29 Ilam 19,134 65 Te Tai Tonga 3,014
30 Northland 18,834 66 Te Tai Tokerau 1,851
31 Whangarei 18,572 67 Hauraki-Waikato 1,594
32 Ohariu 18,277 68 Te Tai Hauauru 1,509
33 Northcote 18,005 69 Tamaki Makaurau 1,348
34 Napier 17,929 70 Waiariki 1,139
35 Invercargill 17,414 71 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 1,131
36 Hutt South 17,390

Rodney had the highest absolute party vote for National at 27,010 with Hunua second on 26,005.

In total 21 electorates got a party vote over 20,000 just two less than in 2014.

45 (-2) seats got a party vote over 15,000 and 61 (+1) seats had a party vote over 10,000.

The median electorate was Hutt South on 17,390 votes and the worst electorates after the Maori seats were
Mangere and Manukau East.

The number of electors who vote in each electorate can vary by over 10,000 so generally the percentage
National got is seen as a more useful comparison.

Port Hills in 27th place had the highest party vote of the seats we contested (excluding Epsom and Ohariu) but
did not win. Conversely Auckland Central in 58th place had the lowest party vote of the seats National did win.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


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NATIONAL 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE


1 Hunua 63.0% 37 Ohariu 45.3%
2 East Coast Bays 62.9% 38 Whangarei 45.1%
3 Pakuranga 61.9% 39 Whanganui 44.9%
4 Tamaki 61.7% 40 East Coast 44.2%
5 Botany 61.0% 41 Mt Roskill 43.0%
6 Rodney 59.6% 42 New Lynn 41.8%
7 Clutha Southland 59.3% 43 Hutt South 41.7%
8 Selwyn 59.1% 44 Te Atatu 41.4%
9 Waikato 58.7% 45 Wigram 41.2%
10 Epsom 58.6% 46 Maungakiekie 41.0%
11 Taranaki-King Country 58.1% 47 Port Hills 40.7%
12 North Shore 57.8% 48 Palmerston North 40.3%
13 Helensville 55.9% 49 West Coast Tasman 40.1%
14 Bay of Plenty 54.6% 50 Nelson 39.3%
15 Upper Harbour 54.2% 51 Auckland Central 39.2%
16 Waitaki 54.0% 52 Christchurch Central 39.1%
17 Taupo 53.9% 53 Rimutaka 39.0%
18 Waimakariri 53.6% 54 Mana 36.6%
19 Rangitata 53.0% 55 Dunedin South 35.6%
20 Tauranga 52.9% 56 Christchurch East 35.5%
21 Kaikoura 52.8% 57 Mt Albert 34.0%
22 Ilam 52.6% 58 Kelston 33.0%
23 Rangitikei 51.8% 59 Wellington Central 30.5%
24 Papakura 51.3% 60 Manurewa 28.8%
25 Coromandel 51.2% 61 Rongotai 28.1%
26 Tukituki 49.2% 62 Dunedin North 27.8%
27 Wairarapa 48.8% 63 Manukau East 22.9%
28 New Plymouth 48.8% 64 Mangere 17.3%
29 Northcote 48.8% 65 Te Tai Tonga 12.6%
30 Invercargill 48.4% 66 Te Tai Tokerau 7.5%
31 Rotorua 48.3% 67 Hauraki-Waikato 7.0%
32 Hamilton East 47.6% 68 Te Tai Hauauru 6.6%
33 Hamilton West 46.5% 69 Tamaki Makaurau 6.6%
34 Northland 46.3% 70 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 4.9%
35 Otaki 46.2% 71 Waiariki 4.7%
36 Napier 46.2%

On a percentage basis Hunua had the best party vote for National at 63.0% followed by East Coast Bays and
Pakuranga.

5 (-6) electorates got over 60% party vote, and 25 (-8) electorates got over 50% party vote. 49 (-4) electorates
got over 40% party vote.

Napier in 36th place was the highest polling seat of those National did not win but contested. Auckland Central
in 51st place had the lowest party vote percentage of the seats National did win.

The median electorate is Napier on 46.2%.

Apart from the Maori seats Mangere, Manukau East and Dunedin North were worse for National on 17.3%,
22.9% and 27.8%.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


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NATIONAL 2017 ELECTORATE VOTE


1 Selwyn 28,686 33 Invercargill 18,102
2 Rodney 28,140 34 East Coast 17,517
3 Hunua 26,825 35 Whanganui 16,751
4 Bay of Plenty 25,352 36 Nelson 16,735
5 Waitaki 24,870 37 Ilam 16,577
6 Taupo 24,611 38 Wairarapa 16,514
7 Waikato 24,560 39 Ohariu 16,033
8 Tamaki 24,026 40 Napier 15,457
9 Taranaki-King Country 23,854 41 Northland 15,243
10 North Shore 23,564 42 Maungakiekie 15,063
11 Coromandel 23,053 43 Port Hills 14,687
12 East Coast Bays 22,731 44 Christchurch Central 13,760
13 Pakuranga 22,663 45 Te Atatu 13,590
14 Waimakariri 22,657 46 Auckland Central 13,198
15 Clutha Southland 21,819 47 Rimutaka 13,116
16 Helensville 21,704 48 New Lynn 13,015
17 Tauranga 21,499 49 West Coast Tasman 12,895
18 Botany 21,378 50 Dunedin South 12,687
19 Kaikoura 20,954 51 Wigram 12,407
20 Rangitikei 20,809 52 Mt Roskill 12,196
21 Otaki 20,725 53 Palmerston North 11,946
22 New Plymouth 20,711 54 Mana 11,729
23 Papakura 20,266 55 Epsom 10,986
24 Rangitata 19,994 56 Christchurch East 10,959
25 Upper Harbour 19,857 57 Wellington Central 10,910
26 Hutt South 19,643 58 Rongotai 10,246
27 Northcote 19,072 59 Kelston 9,520
28 Hamilton East 18,975 60 Dunedin North 9,505
29 Hamilton West 18,842 61 Mt Albert 9,152
30 Rotorua 18,788 62 Manurewa 7,203
31 Whangarei 18,734 63 Manukau East 4,813
32 Tukituki 18,280 64 Mangere 4,213

Selwyn had the highest electorate vote for National at 28,686 with Rodney and Hunua following.

23 (nc) National MPs managed to attract over 20,000 votes.

The median electorate was Tukituki on 18,280 votes and the worst electorates (Maori seats were not
contested) were Mangere and Manukau East.

The number of electors who vote in each electorate can vary by over 10,000 so generally the percentage
National got is seen as a more useful comparison.

Ohariu in 39th place had the highest electorate vote of the seats National contested but did not win. Conversely
Auckland Central in 46th place had the lowest electorate vote of the seats National did win.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 13 -

NATIONAL 2017 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE


1 Hunua 66.6% 33 East Coast 46.7%
2 Taranaki-King Country 66.4% 34 Ilam 46.6%
3 Selwyn 66.2% 35 Whangarei 46.3%
4 East Coast Bays 66.1% 36 Whanganui 45.6%
5 Pakuranga 64.9% 37 Auckland Central 45.2%
6 Tamaki 64.1% 38 Maungakiekie 44.0%
7 Rodney 63.1% 39 Wairarapa 41.4%
8 Taupo 62.9% 40 Nelson 40.7%
9 Botany 62.8% 41 Napier 40.5%
10 Waikato 62.2% 42 Ohariu 40.4%
11 Bay of Plenty 61.1% 43 Te Atatu 40.1%
12 North Shore 60.5% 44 Christchurch Central 39.7%
13 Clutha Southland 59.9% 45 New Lynn 38.7%
14 Waimakariri 57.6% 46 Northland 38.3%
15 Waitaki 57.5% 47 Wigram 38.2%
16 Rangitikei 56.6% 48 Mt Roskill 35.3%
17 Helensville 56.5% 49 Port Hills 35.0%
18 Upper Harbour 56.1% 50 Palmerston North 34.6%
19 Papakura 55.6% 51 West Coast Tasman 34.6%
20 Coromandel 55.1% 52 Rimutaka 33.8%
21 Tauranga 54.8% 53 Dunedin South 32.4%
22 Kaikoura 53.6% 54 Christchurch East 32.4%
23 Rangitata 53.6% 55 Kelston 31.1%
24 Hamilton East 53.4% 56 Mana 30.7%
25 Rotorua 53.4% 57 Epsom 28.7%
26 Hamilton West 52.8% 58 Manurewa 27.2%
27 Northcote 52.8% 59 Dunedin North 25.8%
28 New Plymouth 52.6% 60 Wellington Central 25.7%
29 Invercargill 51.0% 61 Rongotai 25.4%
30 Otaki 50.8% 62 Mt Albert 24.2%
31 Tukituki 48.0% 63 Manukau East 18.8%
32 Hutt South 47.9% 64 Mangere 15.7%

Hunua had the highest percentage electorate vote at 66.66% followed by Taranaki-King Country and Selwyn.

12 seats (-5) had electorate votes of over 60% and 30 (-5) seats had an absolute majority of over 50%.

Napier on 40.5% in 42nd place had the highest electorate vote percentage of any seat which National did not win.
Northland in 46th place had the lowest percentage on 38.3% of a seat National did win.

Nationals electorate vote percentage was lowest in Mangere, Manukau East, and Mt Albert.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 14 -

NATIONAL PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17


Change 2017 2014 Palmerston
Manukau 37 North -2.9% 40.3% 43.2%
1 East 2.7% 22.9% 20.3% 38 Coromandel -2.9% 51.2% 54.2%
2 New Lynn 2.6% 41.8% 39.2% 39 Tauranga -3.0% 52.9% 55.8%
3 Mangere 1.7% 17.3% 15.7% 40 Bay of Plenty -3.0% 54.6% 57.7%
4 Pakuranga 1.4% 61.9% 60.4% 41 Napier -3.2% 46.2% 49.4%
5 Botany 1.4% 61.0% 59.6% 42 Taupo -3.2% 53.9% 57.1%
6 Manurewa 1.1% 28.8% 27.7% 43 Waitaki -3.2% 54.0% 57.2%
7 Mt Roskill 0.9% 43.0% 42.1% Taranaki-
8 Kelston 0.6% 33.0% 32.3% 44 King Country -3.4% 58.1% 61.5%
9 Te Atatu 0.3% 41.4% 41.1% 45 Hutt South -3.6% 41.7% 45.3%
10 Papakura 0.0% 51.3% 51.3% 46 Wairarapa -3.7% 48.8% 52.5%
Upper 47 Rotorua -3.7% 48.3% 52.1%
11 Harbour -0.3% 54.2% 54.5% 48 Kaikoura -3.8% 52.8% 56.6%
12 Waiariki -0.3% 4.7% 5.1% 49 North Shore -3.9% 57.8% 61.7%
Te Tai 50 Waimakariri -3.9% 53.6% 57.5%
13 Hauauru -0.5% 6.6% 7.1% 51 Mana -4.0% 36.6% 40.5%
East Coast 52 Tamaki -4.0% 61.7% 65.7%
14 Bays -0.5% 62.9% 63.4% Clutha
Hauraki- 53 Southland -4.1% 59.3% 63.4%
15 Waikato -0.6% 7.0% 7.6% Dunedin
Ikaroa- 54 South -4.3% 35.6% 39.9%
16 Rawhiti -0.6% 4.9% 5.5% Christchurch
17 Maungakiekie -0.7% 41.0% 41.6% 55 East -4.3% 35.5% 39.8%
18 Hunua -1.0% 63.0% 63.9% 56 East Coast -4.4% 44.2% 48.6%
Tamaki Dunedin
19 Makaurau -1.0% 6.6% 7.6% 57 North -4.4% 27.8% 32.3%
Te Tai 58 Selwyn -4.5% 59.1% 63.6%
20 Tokerau -1.1% 7.5% 8.6% 59 Rongotai -4.6% 28.1% 32.7%
21 Invercargill -1.1% 48.4% 49.5% West Coast
Hamilton 60 Tasman -4.7% 40.1% 44.8%
22 West -1.2% 46.5% 47.7% 61 Epsom -5.0% 58.6% 63.6%
23 Rodney -1.5% 59.6% 61.2% 62 Ilam -5.1% 52.6% 57.7%
24 Waikato -1.5% 58.7% 60.2% 63 Ohariu -5.1% 45.3% 50.4%
25 Wigram -1.7% 41.2% 42.9% 64 Nelson -5.1% 39.3% 44.4%
26 Rangitikei -1.8% 51.8% 53.6% 65 Mt Albert -5.1% 34.0% 39.1%
27 Te Tai Tonga -1.9% 12.6% 14.4% 66 Whangarei -5.2% 45.1% 50.2%
28 Northcote -1.9% 48.8% 50.7% Christchurch
29 Whanganui -2.4% 44.9% 47.3% 67 Central -5.6% 39.1% 44.7%
Hamilton Auckland
30 East -2.4% 47.6% 50.0% 68 Central -5.7% 39.2% 44.9%
31 Rimutaka -2.4% 39.0% 41.5% 69 Port Hills -6.3% 40.7% 47.0%
32 Rangitata -2.5% 53.0% 55.6% New
33 Helensville -2.6% 55.9% 58.5% 70 Plymouth -7.1% 48.8% 55.8%
34 Northland -2.6% 46.3% 49.0% Wellington
35 Tukituki -2.8% 49.2% 52.0% 71 Central -7.1% 30.5% 37.6%
36 Otaki -2.8% 46.2% 49.1%

Nine of 71 electorate increased the party vote. Manukau East had the largest increase at 2.7%, followed by
New Lynn at 2.6%.

The seats with the largest decreases for National were Wellington Central, New Plymouth and Port Hills.

11 seats had an decrease of 5% or more.

The median electorate was Otaki with a 2.8% decrease.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 15 -

NATIONAL PARTY VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 14 TO 17


Change 2017 2014 Clutha
Manukau 40 Southland -6.5% 59.3% 63.4%
1 East 13.1% 22.9% 20.3% Palmerston
2 Mangere 10.7% 17.3% 15.7% 41 North -6.7% 40.3% 43.2%
3 New Lynn 6.5% 41.8% 39.2% 42 Kaikoura -6.7% 52.8% 56.6%
4 Manurewa 3.9% 28.8% 27.7% 43 Waimakariri -6.8% 53.6% 57.5%
5 Pakuranga 2.4% 61.9% 60.4% Te Tai
6 Botany 2.3% 61.0% 59.6% 44 Hauauru -6.9% 6.6% 7.1%
7 Mt Roskill 2.2% 43.0% 42.1% 45 Wairarapa -7.0% 48.8% 52.5%
8 Kelston 1.9% 33.0% 32.3% 46 Selwyn -7.0% 59.1% 63.6%
9 Te Atatu 0.8% 41.4% 41.1% 47 Rotorua -7.2% 48.3% 52.1%
Hauraki-
10 Papakura 0.0% 51.3% 51.3%
48 Waikato -7.7% 7.0% 7.6%
Upper
11 Harbour -0.5% 54.2% 54.5% 49 Epsom -7.8% 58.6% 63.6%
East Coast 50 Hutt South -7.9% 41.7% 45.3%
12 Bays -0.8% 62.9% 63.4% 51 Ilam -8.8% 52.6% 57.7%
13 Hunua -1.5% 63.0% 63.9% 52 East Coast -9.0% 44.2% 48.6%
14 Maungakiekie -1.7% 41.0% 41.6% 53 Mana -9.8% 36.6% 40.5%
15 Invercargill -2.2% 48.4% 49.5% 54 Ohariu -10.1% 45.3% 50.4%
16 Rodney -2.5% 59.6% 61.2% 55 Whangarei -10.3% 45.1% 50.2%
17 Waikato -2.5% 58.7% 60.2% West Coast
Hamilton 56 Tasman -10.5% 40.1% 44.8%
18 West -2.6% 46.5% 47.7% Dunedin
19 Rangitikei -3.4% 51.8% 53.6% 57 South -10.7% 35.6% 39.9%
Ikaroa-
20 Northcote -3.8% 48.8% 50.7%
58 Rawhiti -10.7% 4.9% 5.5%
21 Wigram -4.0% 41.2% 42.9% Christchurch
22 Helensville -4.4% 55.9% 58.5% 59 East -10.9% 35.5% 39.8%
23 Rangitata -4.5% 53.0% 55.6% 60 Nelson -11.5% 39.3% 44.4%
Hamilton Te Tai
24 East -4.8% 47.6% 50.0% 61 Tokerau -12.4% 7.5% 8.6%
25 Whanganui -5.0% 44.9% 47.3% Christchurch
26 Bay of Plenty -5.3% 54.6% 57.7% 62 Central -12.5% 39.1% 44.7%
27 Tauranga -5.3% 52.9% 55.8% New
28 Northland -5.4% 46.3% 49.0% 63 Plymouth -12.7% 48.8% 55.8%
29 Tukituki -5.4% 49.2% 52.0% Auckland
30 Coromandel -5.4% 51.2% 54.2% 64 Central -12.7% 39.2% 44.9%
Taranaki- 65 Te Tai Tonga -12.9% 12.6% 14.4%
31 King Country -5.5% 58.1% 61.5% 66 Mt Albert -13.1% 34.0% 39.1%
32 Taupo -5.6% 53.9% 57.1% Tamaki
33 Waitaki -5.6% 54.0% 57.2% 67 Makaurau -13.3% 6.6% 7.6%
34 Otaki -5.8% 46.2% 49.1% 68 Port Hills -13.3% 40.7% 47.0%
35 Rimutaka -5.8% 39.0% 41.5% Dunedin
36 Waiariki -6.0% 4.7% 5.1% 69 North -13.7% 27.8% 32.3%
37 Tamaki -6.1% 61.7% 65.7% 70 Rongotai -14.1% 28.1% 32.7%
38 North Shore -6.3% 57.8% 61.7% Wellington
71 Central -18.9% 30.5% 37.6%
39 Napier -6.4% 46.2% 49.4%

The key difference between this table and the previous is the percentage change is not shown as an
absolute shift in the percentage of the party vote, but the relative change as a percentage of the 2014 vote.

Manukau East and Mangere saw National grow their vote 13% and 11% in a relative sense.

The median decrease was 6.0% in Waiariki.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 16 -

NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17


Change 2017 2014 33 Wairarapa -2.5% 41.4% 43.9%
1 Ohariu 23.7% 40.4% 16.6% 34 North Shore -2.6% 60.5% 63.1%
2 Waimakariri 10.9% 57.6% 46.7% Christchurch
3 Papakura 8.9% 55.6% 46.8% 35 East -2.9% 32.4% 35.2%
4 Napier 8.5% 40.5% 32.0% 36 Rotorua -3.0% 53.4% 56.3%
5 Hutt South 5.9% 47.9% 42.0% 37 Epsom -3.1% 28.7% 31.9%
East Coast 38 Coromandel -3.6% 55.1% 58.7%
6 Bays 4.1% 66.1% 61.9% 39 Selwyn -3.7% 66.2% 70.0%
7 Pakuranga 3.9% 64.9% 61.0% 40 Hamilton East -3.9% 53.4% 57.4%
8 Mt Roskill 3.3% 35.3% 32.0% 41 Kaikoura -4.1% 53.6% 57.7%
9 New Lynn 1.8% 38.7% 36.9% Clutha
10 Manukau East 1.4% 18.8% 17.4% 42 Southland -4.2% 59.9% 64.1%
11 Rongotai 1.0% 25.4% 24.4% 43 Northcote -4.2% 52.8% 57.0%
12 Mangere 0.5% 15.7% 15.2% 44 Dunedin North -4.4% 25.8% 30.2%
13 Wigram 0.5% 38.2% 37.7% 45 Maungakiekie -4.4% 44.0% 48.4%
14 Bay of Plenty 0.4% 61.1% 60.7% Wellington
15 Te Atatu 0.1% 40.1% 40.0% 46 Central -4.6% 25.7% 30.3%
16 Taupo -0.2% 62.9% 63.1% 47 Tukituki -4.6% 48.0% 52.5%
17 Rodney -0.3% 63.1% 63.4% 48 Otaki -4.6% 50.8% 55.4%
18 Hamilton West -0.3% 52.8% 53.1% 49 Mt Albert -4.7% 24.2% 28.9%
19 Upper Harbour -0.4% 56.1% 56.5% 50 Waitaki -5.5% 57.5% 63.0%
Auckland 51 East Coast -5.7% 46.7% 52.4%
20 Central -0.6% 45.2% 45.8% 52 Port Hills -5.7% 35.0% 40.7%
21 Rimutaka -0.9% 33.8% 34.7% 53 New Plymouth -5.8% 52.6% 58.4%
22 Hunua -0.9% 66.6% 67.6% 54 Dunedin South -6.3% 32.4% 38.7%
23 Invercargill -1.0% 51.0% 52.1% Christchurch
West Coast 55 Central -6.6% 39.7% 46.2%
24 Tasman -1.2% 34.6% 35.7% 56 Tamaki -7.3% 64.1% 71.4%
25 Kelston -1.7% 31.1% 32.8% 57 Whanganui -8.1% 45.6% 53.7%
Taranaki-King Palmerston
26 Country -1.8% 66.4% 68.2% 58 North -8.9% 34.6% 43.5%
27 Mana -2.0% 30.7% 32.6% 59 Helensville -9.1% 56.5% 65.6%
28 Rangitikei -2.0% 56.6% 58.6% 60 Whangarei -9.3% 46.3% 55.6%
29 Tauranga -2.1% 54.8% 56.9% 61 Ilam -11.5% 46.6% 58.1%
30 Botany -2.3% 62.8% 65.1% 62 Nelson -12.7% 40.7% 53.4%
31 Manurewa -2.3% 27.2% 29.5% 63 Northland -14.4% 38.3% 52.7%
32 Waikato -2.3% 62.2% 64.5% 64 Rangitata -15.7% 53.6% 69.3%

Ohariu had the largest electorate vote increase at 23.7% followed by Waimakariri on 10.9% and Papakura
on 8.9%.

The biggest increase for a seat National did not win after Ohariu was Mt Roskill at 3.3% and New Lynn on
1.8%.

National increased the electorate vote % in 15 seats and had it drop in 51 seats.

The median electorate was Waikato with a 2.3% decrease.

The largest drops were in Rangitata 15.7%, Northland 14.4% and Nelson 12.7%.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 17 -

NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 14 TO 17


Change 2017 2014 33 Selwyn -5.4% 66.2% 70.0%
1 Ohariu 142.8% 40.4% 16.6% 34 Wairarapa -5.7% 41.4% 43.9%
2 Napier 26.7% 40.5% 32.0% 35 Mana -6.0% 30.7% 32.6%
3 Waimakariri 23.3% 57.6% 46.7% 36 Coromandel -6.2% 55.1% 58.7%
4 Papakura 19.0% 55.6% 46.8% Clutha
5 Hutt South 14.1% 47.9% 42.0% 37 Southland -6.5% 59.9% 64.1%
6 Mt Roskill 10.4% 35.3% 32.0% 38 Hamilton East -6.9% 53.4% 57.4%
7 Manukau East 7.8% 18.8% 17.4% 39 Kaikoura -7.2% 53.6% 57.7%
East Coast 40 Northcote -7.4% 52.8% 57.0%
8 Bays 6.7% 66.1% 61.9% 41 Manurewa -7.9% 27.2% 29.5%
9 Pakuranga 6.3% 64.9% 61.0% Christchurch
10 New Lynn 4.9% 38.7% 36.9% 42 East -8.1% 32.4% 35.2%
11 Rongotai 4.0% 25.4% 24.4% 43 Otaki -8.3% 50.8% 55.4%
12 Mangere 3.3% 15.7% 15.2% 44 Tukituki -8.7% 48.0% 52.5%
13 Wigram 1.2% 38.2% 37.7% 45 Waitaki -8.8% 57.5% 63.0%
14 Bay of Plenty 0.6% 61.1% 60.7% 46 Maungakiekie -9.0% 44.0% 48.4%
15 Te Atatu 0.2% 40.1% 40.0% 47 Epsom -9.8% 28.7% 31.9%
16 Taupo -0.4% 62.9% 63.1% 48 New Plymouth -10.0% 52.6% 58.4%
17 Rodney -0.4% 63.1% 63.4% 49 Tamaki -10.2% 64.1% 71.4%
18 Hamilton West -0.5% 52.8% 53.1% 50 East Coast -10.8% 46.7% 52.4%
19 Upper Harbour -0.8% 56.1% 56.5% 51 Helensville -13.8% 56.5% 65.6%
Auckland 52 Port Hills -14.0% 35.0% 40.7%
20 Central -1.3% 45.2% 45.8% Christchurch
21 Hunua -1.4% 66.6% 67.6% 53 Central -14.2% 39.7% 46.2%
22 Invercargill -2.0% 51.0% 52.1% 54 Dunedin North -14.5% 25.8% 30.2%
23 Rimutaka -2.5% 33.8% 34.7% Wellington
Taranaki-King 55 Central -15.0% 25.7% 30.3%
24 Country -2.6% 66.4% 68.2% 56 Whanganui -15.1% 45.6% 53.7%
West Coast 57 Mt Albert -16.3% 24.2% 28.9%
25 Tasman -3.3% 34.6% 35.7% 58 Dunedin South -16.3% 32.4% 38.7%
26 Rangitikei -3.4% 56.6% 58.6% 59 Whangarei -16.7% 46.3% 55.6%
27 Botany -3.5% 62.8% 65.1% 60 Ilam -19.8% 46.6% 58.1%
28 Waikato -3.6% 62.2% 64.5% Palmerston
29 Tauranga -3.7% 54.8% 56.9% 61 North -20.5% 34.6% 43.5%
30 North Shore -4.2% 60.5% 63.1% 62 Rangitata -22.7% 53.6% 69.3%
31 Kelston -5.2% 31.1% 32.8% 63 Nelson -23.8% 40.7% 53.4%
32 Rotorua -5.3% 53.4% 56.3% 64 Northland -27.4% 38.3% 52.7%

The key difference between this table and the previous is the percentage change is not shown as an
absolute shift in the percentage of the party vote, but the relative change as a percentage of the 2005 vote.

Ohariu had the largest relative change with a 142.8% increase, followed by Napier and Waimakariri.

The median relative decrease was Rotorua with a 5.3% relative decrease.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 18 -

NATIONAL 2017 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE


EV/PV EV PV 34 Whanganui 101.5% 45.6% 44.9%
1 Taupo 116.6% 62.9% 53.9% 35 Kaikoura 101.5% 53.6% 52.8%
2 Auckland Central 115.3% 45.2% 39.2% 36 Clutha Southland 101.1% 59.9% 59.3%
3 Hutt South 114.8% 47.9% 41.7% 37 Helensville 101.0% 56.5% 55.9%
Taranaki-King 38 Rangitata 101.0% 53.6% 53.0%
4 Country 114.4% 66.4% 58.1% 39 Tukituki 97.6% 48.0% 49.2%
5 Hamilton West 113.6% 52.8% 46.5% 40 Te Atatu 96.7% 40.1% 41.4%
6 Hamilton East 112.2% 53.4% 47.6% 41 Manurewa 94.5% 27.2% 28.8%
7 Selwyn 112.0% 66.2% 59.1% 42 Kelston 94.4% 31.1% 33.0%
8 Bay of Plenty 111.8% 61.1% 54.6% 43 Dunedin North 92.8% 25.8% 27.8%
9 Rotorua 110.4% 53.4% 48.3% 44 Wigram 92.6% 38.2% 41.2%
10 Otaki 109.8% 50.8% 46.2% 45 New Lynn 92.5% 38.7% 41.8%
11 Rangitikei 109.2% 56.6% 51.8% Christchurch
12 Papakura 108.5% 55.6% 51.3% 46 East 91.2% 32.4% 35.5%
13 Northcote 108.2% 52.8% 48.8% 47 Dunedin South 90.8% 32.4% 35.6%
14 New Plymouth 107.8% 52.6% 48.8% 48 Mangere 90.8% 15.7% 17.3%
15 Coromandel 107.5% 55.1% 51.2% 49 Rongotai 90.2% 25.4% 28.1%
16 Maungakiekie 107.4% 44.0% 41.0% 50 Ohariu 89.1% 40.4% 45.3%
17 Waimakariri 107.4% 57.6% 53.6% 51 Ilam 88.5% 46.6% 52.6%
18 Waitaki 106.5% 57.5% 54.0% 52 Napier 87.7% 40.5% 46.2%
19 Waikato 105.9% 62.2% 58.7% 53 Rimutaka 86.6% 33.8% 39.0%
20 Rodney 105.9% 63.1% 59.6% West Coast
21 Hunua 105.8% 66.6% 63.0% 54 Tasman 86.2% 34.6% 40.1%
22 East Coast 105.5% 46.7% 44.2% 55 Port Hills 86.0% 35.0% 40.7%
23 Invercargill 105.5% 51.0% 48.4% Palmerston
24 East Coast Bays 105.1% 66.1% 62.9% 56 North 85.8% 34.6% 40.3%
25 Pakuranga 104.9% 64.9% 61.9% 57 Wairarapa 84.8% 41.4% 48.8%
Wellington
26 North Shore 104.6% 60.5% 57.8%
58 Central 84.3% 25.7% 30.5%
27 Tamaki 104.0% 64.1% 61.7%
59 Mana 83.8% 30.7% 36.6%
28 Tauranga 103.6% 54.8% 52.9%
60 Northland 82.6% 38.3% 46.3%
29 Upper Harbour 103.5% 56.1% 54.2%
61 Mt Roskill 82.1% 35.3% 43.0%
30 Nelson 103.5% 40.7% 39.3%
62 Manukau East 81.7% 18.8% 22.9%
31 Botany 103.0% 62.8% 61.0%
63 Mt Albert 71.2% 24.2% 34.0%
32 Whangarei 102.7% 46.3% 45.1%
64 Epsom 49.0% 28.7% 58.6%
Christchurch
33 Central 101.5% 39.7% 39.1%

This shows how National did in the electorate vote relative to the party vote in each seat. At 100% it means
the electorate vote percentage was exactly equal to the party vote percentage.

Taupo just pipped Auckland Central as the seat where the candidate was most popular relative to the party
vote at 117% and 115%. This was followed by Hutt South and Taranaki-King Country at 115% and 114%
respectively.

Christchurch Central was the highest of the general electorate seats National did not win at 102%.

The median seat was Whangarei at 102.7%.

The lowest ratio for a seat National did win was Northland at 82.6% then Wairarapa at 84.8%.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 19 -

NATIONAL 2017 ELECTORATE MARGINS


1 Selwyn 19,639 33 East Coast 4,807
2 Rodney 19,561 34 Nelson 4,283
3 Hunua 19,443 35 Wairarapa 2,872
4 East Coast Bays 16,290 36 Tukituki 2,813
5 Waikato 15,452 37 Maungakiekie 2,157
6 Tamaki 15,402 38 Whanganui 1,706
7 Taranaki-King Country 15,259 39 Auckland Central 1,581
8 Pakuranga 14,886 40 Hutt South 1,530
9 Helensville 14,608 41 Northland 1,389
10 Clutha Southland 14,354 42 Ohariu - 1,051
11 Taupo 14,335 43 New Lynn - 2,825
12 Coromandel 14,326 44 Christchurch Central - 2,871
13 Bay of Plenty 13,996 45 Te Atatu - 3,184
14 Botany 12,839 46 Wigram - 4,594
15 Waitaki 12,816 47 Napier - 5,220
16 North Shore 12,716 48 Epsom - 5,519
17 Tauranga 11,252 49 West Coast Tasman - 5,593
18 Whangarei 10,967 50 Palmerston North - 6,392
19 Waimakariri 10,766 51 Mt Roskill - 6,898
20 Kaikoura 10,553 52 Kelston - 7,269
21 Rangitikei 10,290 53 Christchurch East - 7,480
22 Upper Harbour 9,556 54 Port Hills - 7,916
23 Ilam 8,256 55 Manurewa - 8,374
24 Rotorua 7,901 56 Rimutaka - 8,609
25 New Plymouth 7,733 57 Dunedin South - 8,717
26 Hamilton West 7,731 58 Wellington Central - 9,963
27 Papakura 7,486 59 Rongotai - 10,900
28 Rangitata 6,331 60 Mana - 10,980
29 Northcote 6,210 61 Dunedin North - 11,754
30 Otaki 6,156 62 Manukau East - 12,589
31 Hamilton East 5,810 63 Mangere - 14,597
32 Invercargill 5,579 64 Mt Albert - 15,264

Please note this is the margin between the National Candidate and either the 2 nd place getter or the person
who won the seat.

Amy Adams in Selwyn has the largest majority at 19,639. In total National won 41 (nc) seats and have margins
of over 10,000 in 21 (-2) of them and over 5,000 in a further 11 (-2). Nationals most marginal seat is Northland
on 1,389 votes, followed by Hutt South and Auckland Central.

In six (+3) seats the National candidate was more than 10,000 votes behind the winning candidate. In a total
of 18 (+6) seats the National candidate was more than 5,000 votes behind the winning candidate.

There are three seats (Ohariu, New Lynn and Christchurch Central) National lost by less than 3.000 votes.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 20 -

2017 ELECTORATE MAJORITIES


Majority Party 36 Port Hills 7,916 LAB
1 Selwyn 19,639 NAT 37 Rotorua 7,901 NAT
2 Rodney 19,561 NAT 38 New Plymouth 7,733 NAT
3 Hunua 19,443 NAT 39 Hamilton West 7,731 NAT
4 East Coast Bays 16,290 NAT 40 Papakura 7,486 NAT
5 Waikato 15,452 NAT 41 Christchurch East 7,480 LAB
6 Tamaki 15,402 NAT 42 Kelston 7,269 LAB
7 Mt Albert 15,264 LAB 43 Mt Roskill 6,898 LAB
Taranaki-King 44 Palmerston North 6,392 LAB
8 Country 15,259 NAT 45 Rangitata 6,331 NAT
9 Pakuranga 14,886 NAT 46 Northcote 6,210 NAT
10 Helensville 14,608 NAT 47 Otaki 6,156 NAT
11 Mangere 14,597 LAB 48 Hamilton East 5,810 NAT
12 Clutha Southland 14,354 NAT 49 West Coast Tasman 5,593 LAB
13 Taupo 14,335 NAT 50 Invercargill 5,579 NAT
14 Coromandel 14,326 NAT 51 Epsom 5,519 ACT
15 Bay of Plenty 13,996 NAT 52 Napier 5,220 LAB
16 Botany 12,839 NAT 53 East Coast 4,807 NAT
17 Waitaki 12,816 NAT 54 Te Tai Tokerau 4,807 LAB
18 North Shore 12,716 NAT 55 Te Tai Tonga 4,676 LAB
19 Manukau East 12,589 LAB 56 Wigram 4,594 LAB
20 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 12,274 LAB 57 Nelson 4,283 NAT
21 Dunedin North 11,754 LAB 58 Tamaki Makaurau 3,809 LAB
22 Tauranga 11,252 NAT 59 Te Atatu 3,184 LAB
23 Mana 10,980 LAB 60 Wairarapa 2,872 NAT
24 Whangarei 10,967 NAT 61 Christchurch Central 2,871 LAB
25 Rongotai 10,900 LAB 62 New Lynn 2,825 LAB
26 Waimakariri 10,766 NAT 63 Tukituki 2,813 NAT
27 Kaikoura 10,553 NAT 64 Maungakiekie 2,157 NAT
28 Rangitikei 10,290 NAT 65 Waiariki 1,719 LAB
29 Wellington Central 9,963 LAB 66 Whanganui 1,706 NAT
30 Upper Harbour 9,556 NAT 67 Auckland Central 1,581 NAT
31 Hauraki-Waikato 9,223 LAB 68 Hutt South 1,530 NAT
32 Dunedin South 8,717 LAB 69 Northland 1,389 NAT
33 Rimutaka 8,609 LAB 70 Ohariu 1,051 LAB
34 Manurewa 8,374 LAB 71 Te Tai Hauauru 1,039 LAB
35 Ilam 8,256 NAT

National has the top six majorities. Jacinda Ardern for Labour in Mt Albert is the 7th.

There are 28 (+2) majorities over 10,000 21 National, and seven Labour.

Of the 12 majorities below 3,000 seven are National held and six are Labour held.

The median majority is Ilam on 8,256.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 21 -

LABOUR 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE


1 Mangere 71.0% 37 Invercargill 35.8%
2 Manukau East 65.7% 38 Hamilton East 35.5%
3 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 65.5% 39 Ohariu 35.4%
4 Hauraki-Waikato 62.6% 40 Northcote 34.2%
5 Tamaki Makaurau 60.0% 41 Tukituki 34.1%
6 Te Tai Hauauru 59.1% 42 New Plymouth 34.1%
7 Waiariki 58.9% 43 Rangitata 33.6%
8 Manurewa 58.8% 44 Papakura 33.5%
9 Te Tai Tokerau 58.5% 45 Upper Harbour 32.4%
10 Te Tai Tonga 56.3% 46 Rotorua 32.3%
11 Kelston 50.4% 47 Waimakariri 32.3%
12 Dunedin South 48.2% 48 Wairarapa 32.1%
13 Dunedin North 47.7% 49 Whangarei 31.5%
14 Christchurch East 47.3% 50 Ilam 31.2%
15 Mana 45.6% 51 Waitaki 30.2%
16 Rongotai 44.4% 52 Northland 30.1%
17 Te Atatu 44.0% 53 Botany 29.3%
18 Maungakiekie 43.6% 54 Kaikoura 29.3%
19 Rimutaka 43.5% 55 Taupo 29.0%
20 Mt Albert 43.4% 56 Rangitikei 28.9%
21 Mt Roskill 42.7% 57 Coromandel 27.8%
22 New Lynn 42.7% 58 Tauranga 26.8%
23 Nelson 41.6% 59 Selwyn 26.2%
24 Wigram 41.4% 60 North Shore 26.1%
25 Palmerston North 41.4% 61 Bay of Plenty 25.5%
26 Christchurch Central 40.7% 62 Helensville 25.5%
27 Hutt South 40.4% 63 Pakuranga 24.8%
28 Port Hills 39.4% 64 Epsom 24.5%
29 Wellington Central 38.3% 65 Tamaki 24.5%
30 Napier 37.8% 66 Clutha Southland 24.2%
31 Auckland Central 37.8% 67 Waikato 24.2%
32 West Coast Tasman 37.2% Taranaki-King
33 East Coast 36.8% 68 Country 23.9%
34 Hamilton West 36.8% 69 Rodney 23.3%
35 Whanganui 36.6% 70 East Coast Bays 23.2%
36 Otaki 36.2% 71 Hunua 22.3%

Mangere had the best party vote for Labour at 71.0% followed by Manukau East.

Labour got over 50% party vote in 11 (+8) seats, and over 40% in 27 (+19) seats. In 52 (+30) seats they got
over 30%. They got below 30% in 19 seats.

Their median seat was Otaki at 36.2%.

The seat they did best in that National won was Maungakiekie at 35.3%.

West Coast Tasman had the lowest party vote of any seat they won. It was 37th with 23.5%, followed by
Wellington Central and Port Hills.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


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LABOUR 2017 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE

1 Hauraki-Waikato 71.6% 37 Otaki 35.7%


2 Mangere 70.3% 38 Northcote 35.6%
3 Manukau East 67.8% 39 Invercargill 35.3%
4 Mt Albert 64.5% 40 Papakura 35.1%
5 Mana 59.4% 41 Wairarapa 34.2%
6 Manurewa 58.8% 42 East Coast 33.9%
7 Dunedin North 57.8% 43 New Plymouth 33.0%
8 Rimutaka 56.0% 44 Hamilton West 31.1%
9 Mt Roskill 55.3% 45 Rotorua 30.9%
10 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 55.1% 46 Nelson 30.3%
11 Kelston 54.8% 47 Waimakariri 30.2%
12 Dunedin South 54.6% 48 Upper Harbour 29.1%
13 Christchurch East 54.4% 49 Rangitikei 28.6%
14 Napier 54.2% 50 North Shore 27.9%
15 Te Tai Tokerau 54.0% 51 Waitaki 27.9%
16 Port Hills 53.9% 52 Bay of Plenty 27.3%
17 Waiariki 53.7% 53 Kaikoura 26.6%
18 Palmerston North 53.1% 54 Taupo 26.3%
19 Rongotai 52.3% 55 Tauranga 26.1%
20 Wigram 52.3% 56 Botany 25.1%
21 West Coast Tasman 49.5% 57 Taranaki-King Country 23.9%
22 Te Atatu 49.4% 58 Waikato 23.1%
23 Wellington Central 49.3% 59 Tamaki 23.0%
24 Tamaki Makaurau 48.8% 60 Pakuranga 22.3%
25 Christchurch Central 47.9% 61 Northland 21.6%
26 New Lynn 47.1% 62 Ilam 21.5%
27 Te Tai Tonga 45.9% 63 Selwyn 20.9%
28 Te Tai Hauauru 45.0% 64 Coromandel 20.9%
29 Hutt South 44.2% 65 Clutha Southland 20.5%
30 Ohariu 43.0% 66 Rodney 19.3%
31 Whanganui 41.0% 67 Whangarei 19.2%
32 Tukituki 40.6% 68 East Coast Bays 18.7%
33 Auckland Central 39.8% 69 Epsom 18.5%
34 Maungakiekie 37.7% 70 Helensville 18.5%
35 Hamilton East 37.1% 71 Hunua 18.3%
36 Rangitata 36.6%

Hauraki-Waikato had the highest electorate vote for Labour at 71.6% followed by Mangere at 70.3%.

Labour received over 50% of the EV in 20 (+8) seats.

Their median seat was Rangitata at 36.6%.

Their lowest percentage for a seat which they won was Tamaki Makaurau at 38.3%, Te Tai Hauauru 31.4%
and then Napier at 2.7%. Conversely their best result in a seat they did not win was Auckland Central at
43.6%.

Their worst seat was Epsom at 9.4% and then Selwyn at 10.9%. In 21 seats their candidate got under 25%.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 23 -

LABOUR 2017 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE


EV/PV EV PV 34 Manurewa 99.9% 58.8% 58.8%
1 Mt Albert 148.7% 64.5% 43.4% 35 Mangere 98.9% 70.3% 71.0%
2 Napier 143.3% 54.2% 37.8% 36 Rangitikei 98.9% 28.6% 28.9%
3 Port Hills 136.8% 53.9% 39.4% 37 Otaki 98.7% 35.7% 36.2%
West Coast 38 Invercargill 98.6% 35.3% 35.8%
4 Tasman 133.3% 49.5% 37.2% 39 Tauranga 97.4% 26.1% 26.8%
5 Mana 130.2% 59.4% 45.6% 40 New Plymouth 96.5% 33.0% 34.1%
6 Mt Roskill 129.4% 55.3% 42.7% 41 Rotorua 95.7% 30.9% 32.3%
7 Rimutaka 128.8% 56.0% 43.5% 42 Waikato 95.4% 23.1% 24.2%
Wellington 43 Tamaki 94.1% 23.0% 24.5%
8 Central 128.7% 49.3% 38.3% 44 Waimakariri 93.6% 30.2% 32.3%
Palmerston 45 Waitaki 92.3% 27.9% 30.2%
9 North 128.3% 53.1% 41.4%
46 Te Tai Tokerau 92.3% 54.0% 58.5%
10 Wigram 126.4% 52.3% 41.4%
47 East Coast 92.1% 33.9% 36.8%
11 Ohariu 121.3% 43.0% 35.4%
48 Waiariki 91.2% 53.7% 58.9%
12 Dunedin North 121.0% 57.8% 47.7%
49 Kaikoura 91.0% 26.6% 29.3%
13 Tukituki 118.9% 40.6% 34.1%
50 Taupo 90.6% 26.3% 29.0%
14 Rongotai 117.9% 52.3% 44.4%
51 Pakuranga 89.9% 22.3% 24.8%
Christchurch
52 Upper Harbour 89.8% 29.1% 32.4%
15 Central 117.8% 47.9% 40.7%
Christchurch 53 Maungakiekie 86.5% 37.7% 43.6%
16 East 115.2% 54.4% 47.3% 54 Botany 85.8% 25.1% 29.3%
Hauraki- 55 Hamilton West 84.7% 31.1% 36.8%
17 Waikato 114.3% 71.6% 62.6% Clutha
18 Dunedin South 113.2% 54.6% 48.2% 56 Southland 84.6% 20.5% 24.2%
19 Te Atatu 112.4% 49.4% 44.0% 57 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 84.1% 55.1% 65.5%
20 Whanganui 111.9% 41.0% 36.6% 58 Rodney 82.5% 19.3% 23.3%
21 New Lynn 110.2% 47.1% 42.7% 59 Hunua 82.3% 18.3% 22.3%
22 Hutt South 109.2% 44.2% 40.4% 60 Te Tai Tonga 81.5% 45.9% 56.3%
23 Rangitata 109.0% 36.6% 33.6% Tamaki
61 Makaurau 81.4% 48.8% 60.0%
24 Kelston 108.9% 54.8% 50.4%
East Coast
25 Bay of Plenty 107.2% 27.3% 25.5%
62 Bays 80.6% 18.7% 23.2%
26 North Shore 106.8% 27.9% 26.1%
63 Selwyn 79.8% 20.9% 26.2%
27 Wairarapa 106.6% 34.2% 32.1%
64 Te Tai Hauauru 76.1% 45.0% 59.1%
Auckland
28 Central 105.4% 39.8% 37.8% 65 Epsom 75.3% 18.5% 24.5%
29 Papakura 104.6% 35.1% 33.5% 66 Coromandel 75.0% 20.9% 27.8%
67 Nelson 72.8% 30.3% 41.6%
30 Hamilton East 104.4% 37.1% 35.5%
68 Helensville 72.5% 18.5% 25.5%
31 Northcote 104.0% 35.6% 34.2%
69 Northland 71.7% 21.6% 30.1%
32 Manukau East 103.2% 67.8% 65.7%
Taranaki-King 70 Ilam 69.0% 21.5% 31.2%
33 Country 100.3% 23.9% 23.9% 71 Whangarei 60.9% 19.2% 31.5%

This shows how Labour did in the electorate vote relative to the party vote in each seat. At 100% it means
the electorate vote was exactly equal to the party vote.

Mt Albert is the seat where the candidate was most popular relative to the party vote at 149%. This was
followed by Napier and Port Hills at 143% and 137% respectively.

The median seat was Rangitikei at 99%.

The lowest ratio was in Whangarei at 61%, Ilam at 69%, and Northland 72%.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 24 -

LABOUR 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE/LAB + GREEN PARTY VOTE


EV/PV EV PV 36 North Shore 85.2% 27.9% 32.7%
1 Napier 126.6% 54.2% 42.8% 37 Tauranga 85.1% 26.1% 30.7%
2 Rimutaka 114.5% 56.0% 48.9% 38 Rotorua 84.9% 30.9% 36.4%
3 Mt Roskill 113.0% 55.3% 48.9% 39 Waikato 84.7% 23.1% 27.2%
Palmerston Taranaki-King
4 North 111.8% 53.1% 47.5% 40 Country 84.5% 23.9% 28.3%
5 Mt Albert 111.2% 64.5% 58.0% 41 Rongotai 84.1% 52.3% 62.2%
6 Mana 111.1% 59.4% 53.4% 42 Te Tai Tokerau 83.2% 54.0% 64.9%
West Coast 43 Waimakariri 83.0% 30.2% 36.4%
7 Tasman 109.1% 49.5% 45.4% Wellington
8 Wigram 108.8% 52.3% 48.1% 44 Central 82.6% 49.3% 59.6%
9 Port Hills 108.5% 53.9% 49.7% 45 East Coast 81.8% 33.9% 41.4%
10 Hauraki-Waikato 105.5% 71.6% 67.8% 46 Taupo 81.0% 26.3% 32.4%
11 Tukituki 103.4% 40.6% 39.3% 47 Upper Harbour 79.8% 29.1% 36.5%
12 Te Atatu 101.2% 49.4% 48.9% 48 Botany 79.3% 25.1% 31.7%
Christchurch 49 Waitaki 78.5% 27.9% 35.5%
13 East 100.8% 54.4% 54.0% 50 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 78.3% 55.1% 70.4%
14 Dunedin South 100.7% 54.6% 54.2% 51 Pakuranga 78.1% 22.3% 28.5%
15 Manukau East 99.9% 67.8% 67.9% 52 Kaikoura 77.8% 26.6% 34.2%
16 Whanganui 99.1% 41.0% 41.3% 53 Auckland Central 77.0% 39.8% 51.7%
17 Rangitata 98.8% 36.6% 37.1% 54 Tamaki 76.4% 23.0% 30.1%
18 Papakura 96.5% 35.1% 36.4% 55 Maungakiekie 76.2% 37.7% 49.5%
19 New Lynn 96.3% 47.1% 48.9% 56 Hamilton West 75.8% 31.1% 41.1%
20 Kelston 96.1% 54.8% 57.1% 57 Hunua 72.6% 18.3% 25.3%
21 Manurewa 95.9% 58.8% 61.3% Tamaki
22 Ohariu 95.4% 43.0% 45.1% 58 Makaurau 72.6% 48.8% 67.3%
23 Mangere 95.3% 70.3% 73.7% 59 Clutha Southland 71.4% 20.5% 28.7%
Christchurch 60 Te Tai Tonga 71.1% 45.9% 64.5%
24 Central 94.9% 47.9% 50.5% 61 Rodney 68.9% 19.3% 27.9%
25 Dunedin North 94.0% 57.8% 61.4% 62 Te Tai Hauauru 68.5% 45.0% 65.8%
26 Wairarapa 92.7% 34.2% 36.9% 63 East Coast Bays 66.9% 18.7% 28.0%
27 Bay of Plenty 92.6% 27.3% 29.5% 64 Selwyn 66.4% 20.9% 31.5%
28 Hutt South 92.5% 44.2% 47.7% 65 Coromandel 63.0% 20.9% 33.1%
29 Invercargill 90.4% 35.3% 39.1% 66 Nelson 61.7% 30.3% 49.1%
30 Hamilton East 89.1% 37.1% 41.6% 67 Northland 59.7% 21.6% 36.2%
31 Northcote 86.8% 35.6% 41.0% 68 Epsom 56.2% 18.5% 32.9%
32 Rangitikei 85.8% 28.6% 33.3% 69 Ilam 56.2% 21.5% 38.4%
33 Waiariki 85.6% 53.7% 62.8% 70 Helensville 55.9% 18.5% 33.1%
34 New Plymouth 85.3% 33.0% 38.6% 71 Whangarei 51.6% 19.2% 37.2%
35 Otaki 85.3% 35.7% 41.9%

In this table we compare the Labour electorate vote to the combined party vote for Labour and Greens. This
removes the impact of Green voters who tactically voted for the Labour candidate to get a better idea of
which Labour candidates attracted support beyond the main left party vote.

Napier is the seat where the candidate was most popular relative to the L/G party vote at 127%. This was
followed by Rimutaka and Mt Roskill at 115% and 113% respectively.

In only 14 seats did the Labour candidate get more votes than the combined party vote for Labour and
Greens.

The median seat was North Shore at 85%.

The lowest ratio was in Whangarei at 52% and Helensville at 56%.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 25 -

LABOUR PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17

Change 2017 2014 35 Ohariu 11.9% 35.4% 23.5%


1 Te Tai Tokerau 23.0% 58.5% 35.5% 36 Napier 11.9% 37.8% 26.0%
2 Waiariki 20.2% 58.9% 38.8% 37 North Shore 11.9% 26.1% 14.2%
3 Te Tai Tonga 19.4% 56.3% 36.9% 38 Hamilton East 11.7% 35.5% 23.8%
Tamaki 39 Wairarapa 11.5% 32.1% 20.6%
4 Makaurau 19.1% 60.0% 40.8% 40 Otaki 11.3% 36.2% 24.8%
5 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 17.4% 65.5% 48.1% 41 Tukituki 11.3% 34.1% 22.8%
6 Te Tai Hauauru 16.9% 59.1% 42.2% 42 Rangitata 11.3% 33.6% 22.3%
7 Nelson 16.9% 41.6% 24.7% 43 Mana 11.2% 45.6% 34.4%
8 Auckland Central 16.1% 37.8% 21.7% 44 Rotorua 11.1% 32.3% 21.2%
9 Hauraki-Waikato 16.1% 62.6% 46.5% 45 Epsom 11.1% 24.5% 13.4%
10 Dunedin North 15.9% 47.7% 31.8% 46 East Coast Bays 11.1% 23.2% 12.1%
11 Port Hills 15.5% 39.4% 23.9% 47 Hamilton West 11.1% 36.8% 25.7%
Christchurch 48 Whanganui 11.1% 36.6% 25.5%
12 East 15.1% 47.3% 32.2% 49 Rodney 11.0% 23.3% 12.3%
13 Dunedin South 15.0% 48.2% 33.3% 50 Invercargill 10.7% 35.8% 25.1%
Christchurch 51 Rimutaka 10.6% 43.5% 32.9%
14 Central 14.4% 40.7% 26.3% Taranaki-King
Wellington 52 Country 10.5% 23.9% 13.4%
15 Central 14.4% 38.3% 23.8%
53 Rangitikei 10.4% 28.9% 18.5%
16 East Coast 14.1% 36.8% 22.7% Palmerston
17 Mt Albert 13.9% 43.4% 29.5% 54 North 10.4% 41.4% 31.0%
18 Rongotai 13.9% 44.4% 30.5% 55 Taupo 10.4% 29.0% 18.6%
19 Whangarei 13.7% 31.5% 17.9% 56 Tamaki 9.7% 24.5% 14.8%
West Coast 57 Clutha Southland 9.5% 24.2% 14.7%
20 Tasman 13.6% 37.2% 23.5%
58 Waikato 9.4% 24.2% 14.8%
21 Ilam 13.5% 31.2% 17.7%
59 Hunua 9.2% 22.3% 13.1%
22 Northland 13.5% 30.1% 16.6%
60 Upper Harbour 9.0% 32.4% 23.5%
23 Waimakariri 13.3% 32.3% 19.0%
61 Te Atatu 8.9% 44.0% 35.0%
24 Selwyn 13.2% 26.2% 13.0%
62 Pakuranga 8.8% 24.8% 16.0%
25 New Plymouth 13.0% 34.1% 21.2%
63 Maungakiekie 8.3% 43.6% 35.3%
26 Helensville 13.0% 25.5% 12.5%
64 Kelston 8.2% 50.4% 42.1%
27 Wigram 12.7% 41.4% 28.7%
65 Papakura 7.6% 33.5% 25.9%
28 Hutt South 12.4% 40.4% 28.0%
66 Mt Roskill 7.1% 42.7% 35.6%
29 Bay of Plenty 12.4% 25.5% 13.1%
67 Botany 7.0% 29.3% 22.3%
30 Tauranga 12.4% 26.8% 14.4%
68 New Lynn 6.6% 42.7% 36.1%
31 Kaikoura 12.2% 29.3% 17.1%
69 Manurewa 5.8% 58.8% 53.0%
32 Northcote 12.1% 34.2% 22.1%
70 Mangere 3.5% 71.0% 67.6%
33 Waitaki 12.1% 30.2% 18.1%
71 Manukau East 2.0% 65.7% 63.7%
34 Coromandel 12.1% 27.8% 15.7%

Labour gained party vote in all 71 seats. The largest increases were the Maori seats followed by Nelson 17%
and Auckland Central 16%.

13 seats had a gain of over 15%, and 55 seats had a gain of over 10%.

The median change was in Napier on +11.9%

Labours smallest gains were South Auckland and then New Lynn.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 26 -

LABOUR ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17


Change 2017 2014 36 Waikato 4.1% 23.1% 19.0%
1 Waiariki 37.0% 53.7% 16.7% 37 Kelston 3.9% 54.8% 50.9%
2 Napier 11.5% 54.2% 42.7% 38 Papakura 3.7% 35.1% 31.4%
Tamaki 39 Te Tai Hauauru 3.7% 45.0% 41.3%
3 Makaurau 10.5% 48.8% 38.3% 40 Kaikoura 3.7% 26.6% 22.9%
4 Dunedin North 10.4% 57.8% 47.4% 41 Wigram 3.4% 52.3% 48.9%
5 Hauraki-Waikato 10.0% 71.6% 61.6% Palmerston
6 Selwyn 10.0% 20.9% 10.9% 42 North 3.0% 53.1% 50.1%
7 Tauranga 10.0% 26.1% 16.1% 43 Rimutaka 3.0% 56.0% 53.0%
8 Hamilton East 9.9% 37.1% 27.2% 44 Te Tai Tonga 3.0% 45.9% 42.9%
9 Coromandel 9.5% 20.9% 11.3% 45 Rongotai 2.5% 52.3% 49.8%
10 Te Tai Tokerau 9.2% 54.0% 44.7% 46 Upper Harbour 2.5% 29.1% 26.6%
11 Epsom 9.0% 18.5% 9.4% West Coast
Christchurch 47 Tasman 2.2% 49.5% 47.3%
12 Central 9.0% 47.9% 38.9% 48 Botany 1.7% 25.1% 23.4%
13 Rangitata 8.9% 36.6% 27.7% 49 Rangitikei 1.7% 28.6% 27.0%
14 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 8.9% 55.1% 46.3% 50 New Plymouth 1.0% 33.0% 31.9%
15 Bay of Plenty 8.8% 27.3% 18.5% 51 Otaki 0.9% 35.7% 34.8%
16 Tamaki 8.7% 23.0% 14.3% 52 Te Atatu 0.7% 49.4% 48.7%
17 Wairarapa 8.6% 34.2% 25.6% 53 Clutha Southland 0.7% 20.5% 19.8%
18 North Shore 8.5% 27.9% 19.3% 54 Hunua 0.5% 18.3% 17.9%
19 Rodney 8.2% 19.3% 11.1% 55 Hutt South 0.3% 44.2% 43.8%
20 Ohariu 8.1% 43.0% 34.9% 56 Whanganui 0.2% 41.0% 40.7%
21 Waitaki 7.6% 27.9% 20.2% 57 Whangarei 0.0% 19.2% 19.2%
22 Port Hills 7.5% 53.9% 46.4% 58 Pakuranga -0.2% 22.3% 22.5%
Taranaki-King 59 Mt Roskill -1.3% 55.3% 56.5%
23 Country 7.0% 23.9% 17.0% 60 Manukau East -1.7% 67.8% 69.5%
24 East Coast Bays 6.6% 18.7% 12.1% 61 Ilam -2.0% 21.5% 23.5%
25 Northcote 6.5% 35.6% 29.0% 62 Mangere -2.2% 70.3% 72.5%
26 Tukituki 6.5% 40.6% 34.2% Wellington
Christchurch 63 Central -2.8% 49.3% 52.0%
27 East 6.4% 54.4% 48.1% 64 Nelson -2.8% 30.3% 33.1%
28 Mt Albert 5.8% 64.5% 58.7% 65 Rotorua -3.1% 30.9% 34.0%
29 Helensville 5.7% 18.5% 12.8% 66 Maungakiekie -3.6% 37.7% 41.3%
30 Dunedin South 5.5% 54.6% 49.1% 67 Auckland Central -3.8% 39.8% 43.6%
31 Invercargill 5.5% 35.3% 29.9% 68 New Lynn -3.8% 47.1% 50.9%
32 Taupo 5.4% 26.3% 20.8% 69 Hamilton West -4.3% 31.1% 35.4%
33 Manurewa 4.5% 58.8% 54.2% 70 Northland -4.3% 21.6% 25.9%
34 Mana 4.5% 59.4% 54.8% 71 Waimakariri -9.7% 30.2% 39.9%
35 East Coast 4.5% 33.9% 29.4%

Labours increased the electorate vote in 57 seats. The biggest were Waiariki with a huge 37% gain and then
Napier with 12%.

The median change was Waikato on +4.1%.

Labour lost EV in 14 seats. The biggest drops were 9.7% in Waimakariri, 4.3% in Northland and Hamilton
West and 3.8% in New Lynn.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 27 -

GREENS 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE


1 Wellington Central 21.3% 37 Coromandel 5.3%
2 Rongotai 17.8% 38 Waitaki 5.3%
3 Mt Albert 14.7% 39 Hauraki-Waikato 5.2%
4 Auckland Central 13.9% 40 Tukituki 5.1%
5 Dunedin North 13.7% 41 Napier 5.0%
6 Port Hills 10.3% 42 Kaikoura 5.0%
7 Christchurch Central 9.8% 43 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 4.9%
8 Ohariu 9.6% 44 Te Atatu 4.9%
9 Epsom 8.4% 45 Wairarapa 4.8%
10 West Coast Tasman 8.3% 46 East Coast Bays 4.7%
11 Te Tai Tonga 8.2% 47 Whanganui 4.7%
12 Mana 7.9% 48 East Coast 4.6%
13 Helensville 7.6% 49 Rodney 4.6%
14 Nelson 7.5% 50 New Plymouth 4.5%
15 Tamaki Makaurau 7.3% 51 Clutha Southland 4.5%
16 Hutt South 7.3% 52 Taranaki-King Country 4.4%
17 Ilam 7.2% 53 Rangitikei 4.4%
18 Northcote 6.8% 54 Hamilton West 4.3%
19 Christchurch East 6.7% 55 Rotorua 4.1%
20 Kelston 6.7% 56 Waimakariri 4.1%
21 Wigram 6.7% 57 Upper Harbour 4.1%
22 North Shore 6.6% 58 Bay of Plenty 4.0%
23 Te Tai Hauauru 6.6% 59 Tauranga 3.9%
24 Te Tai Tokerau 6.4% 60 Waiariki 3.9%
25 Mt Roskill 6.2% 61 Pakuranga 3.7%
26 New Lynn 6.2% 62 Rangitata 3.5%
27 Palmerston North 6.1% 63 Taupo 3.4%
28 Hamilton East 6.1% 64 Invercargill 3.2%
29 Northland 6.0% 65 Waikato 3.0%
30 Dunedin South 5.9% 66 Hunua 3.0%
31 Maungakiekie 5.9% 67 Papakura 2.8%
32 Whangarei 5.7% 68 Mangere 2.7%
33 Otaki 5.7% 69 Manurewa 2.5%
34 Tamaki 5.7% 70 Botany 2.4%
35 Rimutaka 5.5% 71 Manukau East 2.2%
36 Selwyn 5.3%

The Greens again did well in Wellington achieving 21.3% in Wellington Central and 17.8% in Rongotai.

In six seats they got over 10%, and in 42 seats, over 5%.

Their median seat was Mt Selwyn on 5.3%. This is less than their average of 6.3% so their stronger seats
drags them up.

Their worst seats were Manukau East and Botany. They were below 4% in 13 seats.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 28 -

GREEN PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17

Change 2017 2014 38 Epsom -4.2% 8.4% 12.5%


1 Mangere -1.3% 2.7% 4.0% 39 Waiariki -4.2% 3.9% 8.1%
2 Manukau East -1.4% 2.2% 3.7% 40 Kaikoura -4.2% 5.0% 9.2%
3 Manurewa -1.5% 2.5% 4.0% 41 Invercargill -4.3% 3.2% 7.6%
4 Botany -2.0% 2.4% 4.4% Tamaki
5 Papakura -2.4% 2.8% 5.2% 42 Makaurau -4.5% 7.3% 11.8%
6 Whanganui -2.5% 4.7% 7.2% 43 Coromandel -4.5% 5.3% 9.8%
7 Pakuranga -2.6% 3.7% 6.3% Hauraki-
8 Rotorua -2.6% 4.1% 6.7% 44 Waikato -4.5% 5.2% 9.8%
9 Taupo -2.7% 3.4% 6.1% 45 East Coast -4.6% 4.6% 9.2%
West Coast
10 Waikato -2.7% 3.0% 5.8%
46 Tasman -4.7% 8.3% 13.0%
Taranaki-King
11 Country -2.8% 4.4% 7.2% 47 Waimakariri -4.7% 4.1% 8.9%
12 Hunua -2.8% 3.0% 5.8% 48 Northland -4.8% 6.0% 10.8%
13 Upper Harbour -2.9% 4.1% 7.0% 49 Northcote -4.9% 6.8% 11.6%
14 Rimutaka -3.1% 5.5% 8.5% 50 Hamilton East -4.9% 6.1% 11.0%
15 Tamaki -3.2% 5.7% 8.8% 51 Mana -4.9% 7.9% 12.8%
16 Bay of Plenty -3.2% 4.0% 7.2% 52 Te Tai Hauauru -5.3% 6.6% 11.9%
17 Te Atatu -3.2% 4.9% 8.1% 53 Ohariu -5.4% 9.6% 15.1%
18 Tauranga -3.2% 3.9% 7.1% 54 Hutt South -5.5% 7.3% 12.7%
Clutha 55 Ikaroa-Rawhiti -5.5% 4.9% 10.4%
19 Southland -3.3% 4.5% 7.7% 56 Selwyn -5.6% 5.3% 10.9%
20 Rangitikei -3.4% 4.4% 7.8% 57 Waitaki -5.8% 5.3% 11.1%
21 Mt Roskill -3.4% 6.2% 9.7% 58 Ilam -5.8% 7.2% 13.0%
22 Tukituki -3.5% 5.1% 8.6% Christchurch
East Coast 59 East -5.9% 6.7% 12.7%
23 Bays -3.5% 4.7% 8.2% 60 Helensville -6.0% 7.6% 13.6%
24 New Plymouth -3.5% 4.5% 8.0% Christchurch
25 Wairarapa -3.6% 4.8% 8.4% 61 Central -6.0% 9.8% 15.8%
26 Maungakiekie -3.6% 5.9% 9.5% 62 Wigram -6.1% 6.7% 12.8%
27 Te Tai Tokerau -3.7% 6.4% 10.1% 63 Dunedin South -6.4% 5.9% 12.3%
Palmerston 64 Nelson -6.6% 7.5% 14.1%
28 North -3.8% 6.1% 9.9% 65 Port Hills -6.8% 10.3% 17.1%
29 Napier -3.8% 5.0% 8.8% 66 Mt Albert -7.1% 14.7% 21.8%
30 Otaki -3.8% 5.7% 9.5% Wellington
31 New Lynn -3.9% 6.2% 10.0% 67 Central -8.2% 21.3% 29.6%
Auckland
32 Hamilton West -3.9% 4.3% 8.2%
68 Central -8.3% 13.9% 22.2%
33 Rodney -3.9% 4.6% 8.5%
69 Te Tai Tonga -8.3% 8.2% 16.5%
34 Rangitata -4.0% 3.5% 7.5%
70 Rongotai -8.6% 17.8% 26.4%
35 Kelston -4.0% 6.7% 10.7%
71 Dunedin North -9.2% 13.7% 22.9%
36 North Shore -4.1% 6.6% 10.7%
37 Whangarei -4.1% 5.7% 9.8%

The Greens lost support in every seat.

Their smallest losses were in South Auckland.

The median change was North Shore on -4.0%.

The biggest decreases were Dunedin North and Rongotai.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


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NZ FIRST 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE


1 Whangarei 14.1% 37 Manurewa 6.6%
2 Northland 13.2% 38 Pakuranga 6.6%
3 Coromandel 12.3% 39 Dunedin South 6.6%
4 Tauranga 11.3% 40 Waitaki 6.6%
5 Te Tai Tokerau 11.2% 41 Kelston 6.6%
6 Bay of Plenty 10.8% 42 Nelson 6.5%
7 Rangitikei 10.4% 43 Te Atatu 6.4%
8 Wairarapa 10.3% 44 Christchurch East 6.3%
9 Waikato 10.1% 45 New Lynn 6.1%
10 Whanganui 10.1% 46 Rangitata 6.0%
11 East Coast 9.9% 47 Northcote 6.0%
12 Rotorua 9.9% 48 Wigram 5.9%
13 Tamaki Makaurau 9.6% 49 Upper Harbour 5.7%
14 West Coast Tasman 9.4% 50 Manukau East 5.7%
15 Taupo 9.0% 51 Hamilton East 5.7%
16 Taranaki-King Country 9.0% 52 Selwyn 5.5%
17 Kaikoura 9.0% 53 Hutt South 5.5%
18 Papakura 8.8% 54 East Coast Bays 5.4%
19 Rodney 8.7% 55 North Shore 5.3%
20 Invercargill 8.7% 56 Christchurch Central 5.2%
21 Hunua 8.6% 57 Mangere 5.2%
22 Hauraki-Waikato 8.5% 58 Maungakiekie 5.1%
23 Otaki 8.2% 59 Dunedin North 5.1%
24 Te Tai Tonga 8.0% 60 Mana 4.9%
25 Tukituki 7.9% 61 Port Hills 4.8%
26 Clutha Southland 7.8% 62 Botany 4.6%
27 Palmerston North 7.8% 63 Mt Roskill 4.4%
28 New Plymouth 7.8% 64 Tamaki 3.9%
29 Hamilton West 7.7% 65 Auckland Central 3.9%
30 Rimutaka 7.4% 66 Ilam 3.8%
31 Waiariki 7.4% 67 Ohariu 3.7%
32 Te Tai Hauauru 7.4% 68 Rongotai 3.7%
33 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 7.2% 69 Mt Albert 3.4%
34 Napier 7.2% 70 Epsom 3.1%
35 Helensville 7.1% 71 Wellington Central 2.3%
36 Waimakariri 6.6%

10 (-14) seats got into double digits for NZ First. In total 59 (-7) out of 71 seats had NZ First over the 5%
threshold.

Their best seats were Whangarei, Northland, Coromandel and Tauranga.

Their median seat was Waimakariri at 6.6%.

Their lowest support was in central city seats such as Wellington Central and Epsom at 2.3% and 3.1%.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


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NZ FIRST PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17


Change 2017 2014 35 Selwyn -1.4% 5.5% 7.0%
Clutha 36 Wairarapa -1.4% 10.3% 11.7%
1 Southland 1.6% 7.8% 6.2% 37 Hamilton East -1.5% 5.7% 7.1%
2 Whangarei 0.7% 14.1% 13.4% 38 Maungakiekie -1.5% 5.1% 6.6%
West Coast 39 Dunedin North -1.7% 5.1% 6.7%
3 Tasman 0.7% 9.4% 8.7% 40 Otaki -1.7% 8.2% 10.0%
4 Northland 0.4% 13.2% 12.8% 41 Rongotai -1.8% 3.7% 5.4%
5 Tukituki 0.3% 7.9% 7.6% 42 Port Hills -1.8% 4.8% 6.6%
6 Napier -0.2% 7.2% 7.4% 43 Waimakariri -1.8% 6.6% 8.5%
7 Coromandel -0.2% 12.3% 12.5% 44 Rangitata -1.9% 6.0% 7.9%
8 Helensville -0.3% 7.1% 7.4% 45 Mana -1.9% 4.9% 6.8%
9 Epsom -0.3% 3.1% 3.5% 46 Kelston -1.9% 6.6% 8.5%
10 Rodney -0.4% 8.7% 9.1% 47 Whanganui -1.9% 10.1% 12.0%
11 Waitaki -0.4% 6.6% 7.0% 48 East Coast -1.9% 9.9% 11.8%
Taranaki-King 49 Hutt South -1.9% 5.5% 7.5%
12 Country -0.5% 9.0% 9.5% Christchurch
13 Pakuranga -0.5% 6.6% 7.1% 50 Central -2.0% 5.2% 7.2%
14 Tamaki -0.5% 3.9% 4.4% 51 Te Atatu -2.0% 6.4% 8.4%
15 North Shore -0.6% 5.3% 5.8% 52 Papakura -2.0% 8.8% 10.8%
East Coast 53 Manukau East -2.1% 5.7% 7.8%
16 Bays -0.6% 5.4% 6.0%
54 Mangere -2.2% 5.2% 7.3%
17 Mt Albert -0.7% 3.4% 4.1%
55 Rotorua -2.3% 9.9% 12.2%
18 Waikato -0.7% 10.1% 10.8%
56 Invercargill -2.4% 8.7% 11.2%
Palmerston
57 Dunedin South -2.5% 6.6% 9.1%
19 North -0.8% 7.8% 8.7%
58 Wigram -2.6% 5.9% 8.6%
20 Botany -0.8% 4.6% 5.4%
59 Rimutaka -2.8% 7.4% 10.3%
21 Kaikoura -0.9% 9.0% 9.9%
22 Mt Roskill -0.9% 4.4% 5.3% 60 Manurewa -2.9% 6.6% 9.5%
23 Rangitikei -0.9% 10.4% 11.3% 61 Hamilton West -3.1% 7.7% 10.8%
Christchurch
24 Hunua -1.0% 8.6% 9.6%
62 East -3.1% 6.3% 9.4%
25 Ohariu -1.1% 3.7% 4.8%
63 Bay of Plenty -3.2% 10.8% 13.9%
26 New Lynn -1.1% 6.1% 7.2%
64 Tauranga -3.2% 11.3% 14.5%
27 Nelson -1.2% 6.5% 7.7%
65 Te Tai Tokerau -3.3% 11.2% 14.6%
28 Upper Harbour -1.2% 5.7% 6.9%
66 Ikaroa-Rawhiti -4.2% 7.2% 11.4%
29 New Plymouth -1.3% 7.8% 9.0%
67 Te Tai Hauauru -4.4% 7.4% 11.8%
30 Taupo -1.3% 9.0% 10.3% Tamaki
Auckland 68 Makaurau -4.5% 9.6% 14.1%
31 Central -1.3% 3.9% 5.2%
69 Te Tai Tonga -4.8% 8.0% 12.9%
32 Northcote -1.3% 6.0% 7.3% Hauraki-
Wellington 70 Waikato -4.9% 8.5% 13.4%
33 Central -1.3% 2.3% 3.6%
71 Waiariki -5.3% 7.4% 12.7%
34 Ilam -1.4% 3.8% 5.1%

NZ First lost party vote in 66 of 71 seats.

Their biggest increase was Clutha-Southland and Whangarei.

The median decrease was Wairarapa at -1.4%

The biggest drops were the Maori seats followed by Tauranga and Bay of Plenty.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


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TOP 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE


1 Wellington Central 5.9% 37 Northcote 2.3%
2 Rongotai 4.6% 38 Taupo 2.3%
3 Ohariu 4.2% 39 Rangitikei 2.3%
4 Dunedin North 4.1% 40 Taranaki-King Country 2.2%
5 Te Tai Tonga 3.9% 41 Maungakiekie 2.2%
6 Ilam 3.5% 42 Otaki 2.2%
7 Christchurch Central 3.5% 43 Kaikoura 2.2%
8 Hutt South 3.5% 44 Rangitata 2.2%
9 Port Hills 3.4% 45 Invercargill 2.1%
10 Mana 3.4% 46 Tamaki 2.1%
11 Nelson 3.3% 47 Helensville 2.0%
12 Tauranga 3.2% 48 Wairarapa 2.0%
13 Bay of Plenty 3.2% 49 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 2.0%
14 Hamilton East 3.2% 50 Northland 2.0%
15 Auckland Central 3.1% 51 Tukituki 1.9%
16 Mt Albert 3.0% 52 East Coast Bays 1.9%
17 Te Tai Hauauru 2.9% 53 Napier 1.9%
18 Waiariki 2.9% 54 Waikato 1.9%
19 Wigram 2.9% 55 Waimakariri 1.8%
20 Rimutaka 2.8% 56 Rodney 1.8%
21 New Plymouth 2.7% 57 Mt Roskill 1.7%
22 Rotorua 2.7% 58 Whangarei 1.7%
23 Epsom 2.7% 59 Coromandel 1.7%
24 Palmerston North 2.7% 60 Whanganui 1.7%
25 Hamilton West 2.7% 61 Upper Harbour 1.6%
26 West Coast Tasman 2.6% 62 Kelston 1.6%
27 Waitaki 2.6% 63 New Lynn 1.5%
28 Selwyn 2.6% 64 Hunua 1.5%
29 Hauraki-Waikato 2.6% 65 Te Atatu 1.3%
30 Dunedin South 2.4% 66 Pakuranga 1.2%
31 Clutha Southland 2.4% 67 Papakura 1.2%
32 North Shore 2.4% 68 Botany 0.8%
33 East Coast 2.4% 69 Manurewa 0.7%
34 Tamaki Makaurau 2.3% 70 Manukau East 0.7%
35 Te Tai Tokerau 2.3% 71 Mangere 0.7%
36 Christchurch East 2.3%

TOPs highest party vote was in Wellington Central at 5.9% then Rongotai 4.6% and Ohariu 4.2%

They got over 5% party vote in just 1 seats. They were over 3% in 16 seats

Their median seat was Christchurch East on 2.3%.

South Auckland were their worst seats followed by Botany.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


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MAORI PARTY 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE


1 Waiariki 19.7% 37 Hutt South 0.4%
2 Te Tai Hauauru 15.1% 38 Auckland Central 0.4%
3 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 13.2% 39 Wigram 0.4%
4 Hauraki-Waikato 11.5% 40 Palmerston North 0.4%
5 Tamaki Makaurau 11.1% 41 Napier 0.4%
6 Te Tai Tonga 8.5% 42 Christchurch Central 0.4%
7 Te Tai Tokerau 6.5% 43 Christchurch East 0.4%
8 Mangere 2.0% 44 Otaki 0.4%
9 Manukau East 1.5% 45 Ilam 0.4%
10 Rotorua 1.3% 46 Northcote 0.4%
11 Manurewa 1.1% 47 New Lynn 0.4%
12 Maungakiekie 0.8% 48 Tukituki 0.3%
13 East Coast 0.8% 49 Pakuranga 0.3%
14 Taupo 0.6% 50 Port Hills 0.3%
15 Papakura 0.6% 51 Northland 0.3%
16 Hamilton West 0.6% 52 Epsom 0.3%
17 New Plymouth 0.6% 53 Upper Harbour 0.3%
18 Mana 0.6% 54 Dunedin North 0.3%
19 Botany 0.6% 55 Helensville 0.3%
20 Hamilton East 0.5% 56 North Shore 0.3%
21 Tauranga 0.5% 57 Clutha Southland 0.3%
22 Taranaki-King Country 0.5% 58 Hunua 0.2%
23 Wellington Central 0.5% 59 Whangarei 0.2%
24 Wairarapa 0.5% 60 Coromandel 0.2%
25 Bay of Plenty 0.5% 61 Kaikoura 0.2%
26 Rongotai 0.5% 62 Rodney 0.2%
27 Kelston 0.5% 63 Nelson 0.2%
28 Mt Roskill 0.5% 64 Invercargill 0.2%
29 Ohariu 0.5% 65 Waimakariri 0.2%
30 Te Atatu 0.5% 66 Dunedin South 0.2%
31 Rimutaka 0.5% 67 West Coast Tasman 0.2%
32 Tamaki 0.5% 68 Rangitata 0.2%
33 Mt Albert 0.5% 69 Waitaki 0.2%
34 Rangitikei 0.4% 70 Selwyn 0.2%
35 Waikato 0.4% 71 East Coast Bays 0.2%
36 Whanganui 0.4%

As expected the Maori Party did best amongst the seven Maori seats. They had considerable variation
though ranging from 19.7% in Waiariki to 6.5% in Te Tai Tokerau.

Their next best seat was Mangere on 2.0%.

Their median seat was Whanganui on 0.4%.

Their worst seat was East Coast Bays on 0.2%.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 33 -

MAORI PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17

Change 2017 2014 Palmerston


1 Mangere 1.6% 2.0% 0.5% 36 North -0.1% 0.4% 0.5%
2 Manukau East 1.2% 1.5% 0.3% 37 Northcote -0.1% 0.4% 0.5%
3 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 0.8% 13.2% 12.4% West Coast
4 Manurewa 0.4% 1.1% 0.7% 38 Tasman -0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
5 Botany 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 39 Hamilton East -0.1% 0.5% 0.6%
6 Maungakiekie 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 40 Invercargill -0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
7 Kelston 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 41 Nelson -0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
8 Papakura 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 42 Rongotai -0.1% 0.5% 0.6%
9 New Plymouth 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 43 Waikato -0.1% 0.4% 0.5%
10 Mt Roskill 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 44 Rangitikei -0.1% 0.4% 0.6%
11 Hamilton West 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 45 Ohariu -0.1% 0.5% 0.6%
12 Rimutaka 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 46 Ilam -0.1% 0.4% 0.5%
13 Pakuranga 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 47 Hutt South -0.1% 0.4% 0.5%
14 Te Atatu 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 48 Kaikoura -0.1% 0.2% 0.4%
15 New Lynn 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 49 Rodney -0.1% 0.2% 0.4%
Christchurch 50 Selwyn -0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
16 East 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 51 Epsom -0.1% 0.3% 0.5%
17 Tamaki 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 52 Whanganui -0.1% 0.4% 0.6%
Taranaki-King 53 Auckland Central -0.2% 0.4% 0.6%
18 Country 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 54 Hunua -0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
19 Mt Albert 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 55 Tukituki -0.2% 0.3% 0.5%
20 Napier 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 56 Rotorua -0.2% 1.3% 1.4%
21 Wairarapa 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 57 Taupo -0.2% 0.6% 0.8%
22 Dunedin South 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 58 East Coast -0.2% 0.8% 0.9%
23 Upper Harbour 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 59 North Shore -0.2% 0.3% 0.5%
24 Waimakariri -0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 60 East Coast Bays -0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
25 Mana -0.1% 0.6% 0.6% Wellington
26 Bay of Plenty -0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 61 Central -0.2% 0.5% 0.8%
27 Otaki -0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 62 Coromandel -0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
28 Dunedin North -0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 63 Northland -0.3% 0.3% 0.6%
Christchurch 64 Helensville -0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
29 Central -0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 65 Whangarei -0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
30 Tauranga -0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 66 Hauraki-Waikato -0.4% 11.5% 12.0%
31 Rangitata -0.1% 0.2% 0.3% Tamaki
32 Wigram -0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 67 Makaurau -1.8% 11.1% 12.8%
33 Clutha Southland -0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 68 Waiariki -2.3% 19.7% 22.0%
34 Port Hills -0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 69 Te Tai Hauauru -2.5% 15.1% 17.6%
35 Waitaki -0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 70 Te Tai Tonga -2.8% 8.5% 11.3%
71 Te Tai Tokerau -3.6% 6.5% 10.2%

The Maori Party increased their party vote in 23


seats and declined in 48 seats.

Their largest increase was Mangere on +1.6%.

Their median decrease was Palmerston North on


-0.1%.

Their biggest decrease was Te Tai Tokerau on -


3.6%.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 34 -

ACT 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE


1 Epsom 1.8% 37 New Lynn 0.4%
2 Tamaki 1.4% 38 Dunedin North 0.4%
3 Auckland Central 1.1% 39 Coromandel 0.4%
4 East Coast Bays 1.0% 40 Hamilton West 0.4%
5 North Shore 0.9% 41 Wairarapa 0.4%
6 Rodney 0.9% 42 Otaki 0.4%
7 Helensville 0.8% 43 Napier 0.4%
8 Wellington Central 0.8% 44 Palmerston North 0.4%
9 Pakuranga 0.8% 45 Clutha Southland 0.4%
10 Hunua 0.7% 46 Kaikoura 0.4%
11 Northcote 0.7% 47 Rimutaka 0.4%
12 Upper Harbour 0.7% 48 West Coast Tasman 0.4%
13 Waikato 0.6% 49 Port Hills 0.4%
14 Maungakiekie 0.6% 50 Kelston 0.4%
15 Taranaki-King Country 0.6% 51 Rongotai 0.3%
16 Hamilton East 0.6% 52 Tukituki 0.3%
17 Ilam 0.6% 53 Christchurch East 0.3%
18 Tauranga 0.6% 54 Rotorua 0.3%
19 Botany 0.6% 55 Nelson 0.3%
20 Mt Albert 0.6% 56 Mana 0.3%
21 Ohariu 0.6% 57 Dunedin South 0.3%
22 Mt Roskill 0.6% 58 Waimakariri 0.3%
23 Papakura 0.6% 59 East Coast 0.3%
24 New Plymouth 0.6% 60 Manurewa 0.3%
25 Rangitata 0.5% 61 Invercargill 0.3%
26 Bay of Plenty 0.5% 62 Manukau East 0.3%
27 Te Atatu 0.5% 63 Waitaki 0.2%
28 Taupo 0.5% 64 Te Tai Tonga 0.2%
29 Whangarei 0.5% 65 Te Tai Tokerau 0.2%
30 Northland 0.5% 66 Tamaki Makaurau 0.2%
31 Rangitikei 0.5% 67 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 0.1%
32 Selwyn 0.5% 68 Mangere 0.1%
33 Hutt South 0.5% 69 Te Tai Hauauru 0.1%
34 Whanganui 0.4% 70 Hauraki-Waikato 0.1%
35 Wigram 0.4% 71 Waiariki 0.1%
36 Christchurch Central 0.4%

Acts highest party vote was in Epsom where David Seymour stood at 1.8%.

Their median seat was Christchurch Central on 0.4%.

The Maori seats were their worst seats and Mangere.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 35 -

ACT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17

Change 2017 2014 36 Dunedin South 0.0% 0.3% 0.3%


1 Rodney 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 37 Te Tai Hauauru 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Taranaki-King Christchurch
2 Country 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 38 Central -0.1% 0.4% 0.5%
3 Tauranga 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 39 Tukituki -0.1% 0.3% 0.4%
4 Bay of Plenty 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 40 Papakura -0.1% 0.6% 0.6%
5 Taupo 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 41 Invercargill -0.1% 0.3% 0.3%
6 Napier 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 42 Nelson -0.1% 0.3% 0.4%
7 Waikato 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 43 Hamilton West -0.1% 0.4% 0.5%
8 Dunedin North 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 44 Whangarei -0.1% 0.5% 0.6%
9 Otaki 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 45 Ohariu -0.1% 0.6% 0.7%
10 Mana 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 46 Port Hills -0.1% 0.4% 0.4%
West Coast 47 Rotorua -0.1% 0.3% 0.4%
11 Tasman 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 48 Hamilton East -0.1% 0.6% 0.7%
12 New Plymouth 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% Auckland
13 Rangitikei 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 49 Central -0.1% 1.1% 1.2%
14 Helensville 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% Hauraki-
15 Selwyn 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 50 Waikato -0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
16 Wairarapa 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% Palmerston
17 Waimakariri 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 51 North -0.1% 0.4% 0.5%
Wellington 52 Mangere -0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
18 Central 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 53 Hunua -0.2% 0.7% 0.9%
19 Rangitata 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 54 Hutt South -0.2% 0.5% 0.7%
20 East Coast 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 55 Manurewa -0.3% 0.3% 0.6%
21 Coromandel 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 56 Ilam -0.4% 0.6% 1.0%
22 Rongotai 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 57 Mt Albert -0.4% 0.6% 1.0%
23 Rimutaka 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 58 Manukau East -0.4% 0.3% 0.7%
24 Te Tai Tonga 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 59 North Shore -0.5% 0.9% 1.4%
Clutha 60 Wigram -0.6% 0.4% 1.0%
25 Southland 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 61 Kelston -0.7% 0.4% 1.0%
26 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 62 Upper Harbour -0.7% 0.7% 1.4%
27 Northland 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% East Coast
Christchurch 63 Bays -0.8% 1.0% 1.8%
28 East 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 64 Maungakiekie -0.8% 0.6% 1.5%
29 Te Tai Tokerau 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 65 Te Atatu -0.9% 0.5% 1.4%
30 Waiariki 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 66 Northcote -0.9% 0.7% 1.6%
31 Tamaki 0.0% 1.4% 1.4% 67 Epsom -0.9% 1.8% 2.7%
32 Kaikoura 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 68 New Lynn -1.2% 0.4% 1.6%
33 Waitaki 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 69 Mt Roskill -1.2% 0.6% 1.8%
34 Whanganui 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 70 Botany -1.8% 0.6% 2.4%
Tamaki 71 Pakuranga -2.2% 0.8% 3.0%
35 Makaurau 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%

ACT gained support in 37 seats and lost support in 34 seats.

Their biggest increase was 0.4% in Rodney.

The median change was Dunedin South on 0.0%

The biggest drop was 2.2% in Pakuranga

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 36 -

RIGHT 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE


(National/ACT)
1 East Coast Bays 63.9% 37 Ohariu 45.9%
2 Hunua 63.7% 38 Whangarei 45.6%
3 Tamaki 63.0% 39 Whanganui 45.4%
4 Pakuranga 62.6% 40 East Coast 44.5%
5 Botany 61.6% 41 Mt Roskill 43.6%
6 Rodney 60.5% 42 New Lynn 42.2%
7 Epsom 60.4% 43 Hutt South 42.2%
8 Clutha Southland 59.6% 44 Te Atatu 41.9%
9 Selwyn 59.6% 45 Wigram 41.6%
10 Waikato 59.3% 46 Maungakiekie 41.6%
11 North Shore 58.8% 47 Port Hills 41.1%
12 Taranaki-King Country 58.7% 48 Palmerston North 40.7%
13 Helensville 56.7% 49 West Coast Tasman 40.4%
14 Bay of Plenty 55.1% 50 Auckland Central 40.3%
15 Upper Harbour 54.9% 51 Nelson 39.6%
16 Taupo 54.4% 52 Christchurch Central 39.5%
17 Waitaki 54.2% 53 Rimutaka 39.4%
18 Waimakariri 53.9% 54 Mana 36.9%
19 Rangitata 53.5% 55 Dunedin South 35.9%
20 Tauranga 53.5% 56 Christchurch East 35.8%
21 Ilam 53.2% 57 Mt Albert 34.5%
22 Kaikoura 53.2% 58 Kelston 33.3%
23 Rangitikei 52.3% 59 Wellington Central 31.3%
24 Papakura 51.8% 60 Manurewa 29.0%
25 Coromandel 51.6% 61 Rongotai 28.5%
26 Tukituki 49.5% 62 Dunedin North 28.3%
27 Northcote 49.5% 63 Manukau East 23.2%
28 New Plymouth 49.3% 64 Mangere 17.5%
29 Wairarapa 49.2% 65 Te Tai Tonga 12.8%
30 Rotorua 48.7% 66 Te Tai Tokerau 7.7%
31 Invercargill 48.6% 67 Hauraki-Waikato 7.1%
32 Hamilton East 48.2% 68 Tamaki Makaurau 6.8%
33 Hamilton West 46.9% 69 Te Tai Hauauru 6.7%
34 Northland 46.8% 70 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 5.0%
35 Otaki 46.6% 71 Waiariki 4.8%
36 Napier 46.6%

East Coast Bays at 63.9% had the highest right vote followed by Hunua. 7 (-17) seats in total had a right
vote over 60% and 25 (-18) seats had a right vote of over 50%.

The median electorate was Napier on 46.6%.

21 (+8) seats had a right vote of below 40%.

The lowest electorates after the Maori seats and South Auckland were Dunedin North, Rongotai and
Wellington Central.

The seat with the highest right party vote that Labour won was Napier at 46.6%.

The seat with the lowest right party vote that National won was Nelson at 39.6%.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 37 -

CENTRE 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE


(NZ First/Maori/TOP)
1 Waiariki 30.0% 37 Helensville 9.4%
2 Te Tai Hauauru 25.4% 38 Hutt South 9.4%
3 Tamaki Makaurau 23.1% 39 Hamilton East 9.4%
4 Hauraki-Waikato 22.6% 40 Waitaki 9.4%
5 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 22.4% 41 Dunedin South 9.2%
6 Te Tai Tonga 20.5% 42 Wigram 9.2%
7 Te Tai Tokerau 20.1% 43 Christchurch Central 9.1%
8 Whangarei 16.1% 44 Christchurch East 9.0%
9 Northland 15.5% 45 Mana 8.9%
10 Tauranga 15.0% 46 Rongotai 8.8%
11 Bay of Plenty 14.5% 47 Northcote 8.7%
12 Coromandel 14.2% 48 Wellington Central 8.7%
13 Rotorua 13.9% 49 Waimakariri 8.6%
14 Rangitikei 13.1% 50 Kelston 8.6%
15 East Coast 13.0% 51 Port Hills 8.6%
16 Wairarapa 12.9% 52 Manurewa 8.5%
17 Waikato 12.4% 53 Rangitata 8.4%
18 Whanganui 12.2% 54 Ohariu 8.3%
19 West Coast Tasman 12.2% 55 Selwyn 8.3%
20 Taupo 11.9% 56 Te Atatu 8.2%
21 Taranaki-King Country 11.7% 57 Pakuranga 8.2%
22 Kaikoura 11.4% 58 Maungakiekie 8.1%
23 New Plymouth 11.1% 59 Manukau East 7.9%
24 Invercargill 11.1% 60 New Lynn 7.9%
25 Hamilton West 11.0% 61 North Shore 7.9%
26 Palmerston North 10.9% 62 Mangere 7.9%
27 Otaki 10.8% 63 Upper Harbour 7.7%
28 Rodney 10.7% 64 Ilam 7.6%
29 Rimutaka 10.7% 65 East Coast Bays 7.5%
30 Papakura 10.6% 66 Auckland Central 7.4%
31 Clutha Southland 10.5% 67 Mt Albert 6.9%
32 Hunua 10.3% 68 Mt Roskill 6.6%
33 Tukituki 10.2% 69 Tamaki 6.4%
34 Nelson 10.0% 70 Epsom 6.1%
35 Napier 9.5% 71 Botany 6.0%
36 Dunedin North 9.5%

After the Maori seats Whangarei is next highest with 16.1% for centre parties, followed by Northland and
Tauranga.

The median electorate was Dunedin North on 9.5%

The lowest electorates for the centre were Botany, Epsom and Tamaki.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 38 -

LEFT 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE


(Labour/Greens)

1 Mangere 73.7% 37 Whanganui 41.3%


2 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 70.4% 38 Hamilton West 41.1%
3 Manukau East 67.9% 39 Northcote 41.0%
4 Hauraki-Waikato 67.8% 40 Tukituki 39.3%
5 Tamaki Makaurau 67.3% 41 Invercargill 39.1%
6 Te Tai Hauauru 65.8% 42 New Plymouth 38.6%
7 Te Tai Tokerau 64.9% 43 Ilam 38.4%
8 Te Tai Tonga 64.5% 44 Whangarei 37.2%
9 Waiariki 62.8% 45 Rangitata 37.1%
10 Rongotai 62.2% 46 Wairarapa 36.9%
11 Dunedin North 61.4% 47 Upper Harbour 36.5%
12 Manurewa 61.3% 48 Rotorua 36.4%
13 Wellington Central 59.6% 49 Waimakariri 36.4%
14 Mt Albert 58.0% 50 Papakura 36.4%
15 Kelston 57.1% 51 Northland 36.2%
16 Dunedin South 54.2% 52 Waitaki 35.5%
17 Christchurch East 54.0% 53 Kaikoura 34.2%
18 Mana 53.4% 54 Rangitikei 33.3%
19 Auckland Central 51.7% 55 Coromandel 33.1%
20 Christchurch Central 50.5% 56 Helensville 33.1%
21 Port Hills 49.7% 57 Epsom 32.9%
22 Maungakiekie 49.5% 58 North Shore 32.7%
23 Nelson 49.1% 59 Taupo 32.4%
24 Rimutaka 48.9% 60 Botany 31.7%
25 Mt Roskill 48.9% 61 Selwyn 31.5%
26 Te Atatu 48.9% 62 Tauranga 30.7%
27 New Lynn 48.9% 63 Tamaki 30.1%
28 Wigram 48.1% 64 Bay of Plenty 29.5%
29 Hutt South 47.7% 65 Clutha Southland 28.7%
30 Palmerston North 47.5% 66 Pakuranga 28.5%
31 West Coast Tasman 45.4% 67 Taranaki-King Country 28.3%
32 Ohariu 45.1% 68 East Coast Bays 28.0%
33 Napier 42.8% 69 Rodney 27.9%
34 Otaki 41.9% 70 Waikato 27.2%
35 Hamilton East 41.6% 71 Hunua 25.3%
36 East Coast 41.4%

Mangere at 73.7% had the highest left vote followed by Ikaroa-Rawhiti. 20 (+5) seats in total had a left vote
over 50%.

The median electorate was East Coast on 41.4%.

32 (-10) seats have a total left vote of under 40% and eight (-18) under 30%.

The lowest electorates for the left were Hunua, Waikato and Rodney.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 39 -

RIGHT LEFT 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1 Hunua 38.4% 37 Whanganui 4.0%


2 East Coast Bays 35.9% 38 Napier 3.8%
3 Pakuranga 34.1% 39 East Coast 3.1%
4 Tamaki 32.9% 40 Ohariu 0.8%
5 Rodney 32.6% 41 West Coast Tasman -5.0%
6 Waikato 32.1% 42 Mt Roskill -5.3%
7 Clutha Southland 30.9% 43 Hutt South -5.6%
8 Taranaki-King Country 30.4% 44 Wigram -6.4%
9 Botany 29.9% 45 New Lynn -6.6%
10 Selwyn 28.1% 46 Palmerston North -6.8%
11 Epsom 27.5% 47 Te Atatu -7.0%
12 North Shore 26.1% 48 Maungakiekie -7.9%
13 Bay of Plenty 25.6% 49 Port Hills -8.6%
14 Helensville 23.7% 50 Nelson -9.4%
15 Tauranga 22.8% 51 Rimutaka -9.5%
16 Taupo 22.0% 52 Christchurch Central -11.0%
17 Kaikoura 19.0% 53 Auckland Central -11.4%
18 Rangitikei 19.0% 54 Mana -16.6%
19 Waitaki 18.7% 55 Christchurch East -18.2%
20 Coromandel 18.5% 56 Dunedin South -18.3%
21 Upper Harbour 18.4% 57 Mt Albert -23.5%
22 Waimakariri 17.5% 58 Kelston -23.8%
23 Rangitata 16.5% 59 Wellington Central -28.3%
24 Papakura 15.5% 60 Manurewa -32.3%
25 Ilam 14.9% 61 Dunedin North -33.2%
26 Wairarapa 12.3% 62 Rongotai -33.8%
27 Rotorua 12.2% 63 Manukau East -44.7%
28 New Plymouth 10.7% 64 Te Tai Tonga -51.7%
29 Northland 10.6% 65 Mangere -56.3%
30 Tukituki 10.3% 66 Te Tai Tokerau -57.2%
31 Invercargill 9.6% 67 Waiariki -58.0%
32 Northcote 8.5% 68 Te Tai Hauauru -59.0%
33 Whangarei 8.3% 69 Tamaki Makaurau -60.5%
34 Hamilton East 6.6% 70 Hauraki-Waikato -60.7%
35 Hamilton West 5.8% 71 Ikaroa-Rawhiti -65.5%
36 Otaki 4.8%

Hunua had the largest margin between the vote for the right and the left at 38.4%. They are followed by East
Coast Bays and Pakuranga.

Eight seats have a greater than 30% gap, and 40 (-12) seats (out of 71) have the right with more votes than
the left.

In 31 seats the left got more votes than the right, In 15 of those seats, by more than 20%.

The median electorate was Otaki with the right 4.8% ahead of the left.

The seven Maori seats and South Auckland are most favourable to the left with party vote margins of over
50%.

The seat with the highest right-left margin Labour won was Napier at +3.8%. The seat with the lowest right-
left margin that National won was Auckland Central at -11.4%.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 40 -

RIGHT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17

Change 2017 2014 38 Hutt South -7.7% 42.2% 49.9%


1 Manukau East 0.1% 23.2% 23.1% 39 Auckland Central -7.7% 40.3% 48.0%
2 Waiariki -0.7% 4.8% 5.5% Palmerston
3 Te Tai Hauauru -1.2% 6.7% 7.9% 40 North -7.8% 40.7% 48.5%
4 Ikaroa-Rawhiti -1.2% 5.0% 6.2% Christchurch
5 Hauraki-Waikato -1.5% 7.1% 8.6% 41 East -7.8% 35.8% 43.6%
6 Mangere -1.6% 17.5% 19.1% 42 Waitaki -7.8% 54.2% 62.1%
Tamaki 43 Taupo -8.0% 54.4% 62.4%
7 Makaurau -1.7% 6.8% 8.5% 44 Rotorua -8.0% 48.7% 56.7%
8 Te Tai Tokerau -1.8% 7.7% 9.5% 45 Rangitikei -8.0% 52.3% 60.3%
9 Manurewa -2.1% 29.0% 31.2% 46 Wairarapa -8.1% 49.2% 57.3%
10 New Lynn -2.5% 42.2% 44.7% 47 Rodney -8.1% 60.5% 68.6%
11 Te Tai Tonga -2.7% 12.8% 15.4% 48 Selwyn -8.1% 59.6% 67.7%
12 Kelston -3.1% 33.3% 36.4% 49 East Coast Bays -8.2% 63.9% 72.1%
13 Mt Roskill -4.1% 43.6% 47.7% 50 Waimakariri -8.3% 53.9% 62.2%
14 Papakura -4.4% 51.8% 56.2% 51 Coromandel -8.4% 51.6% 60.0%
15 Te Atatu -4.5% 41.9% 46.4% 52 Epsom -8.6% 60.4% 69.0%
16 Maungakiekie -4.9% 41.6% 46.5% 53 East Coast -8.6% 44.5% 53.1%
17 Invercargill -5.0% 48.6% 53.7% 54 Bay of Plenty -8.7% 55.1% 63.8%
18 Botany -5.1% 61.6% 66.7% 55 Tauranga -8.7% 53.5% 62.2%
19 Upper Harbour -6.0% 54.9% 60.9% 56 Kaikoura -8.7% 53.2% 62.0%
20 Wigram -6.2% 41.6% 47.8% Wellington
21 Hamilton West -6.2% 46.9% 53.1% 57 Central -8.9% 31.3% 40.1%
22 Hunua -6.4% 63.7% 70.0% 58 Ohariu -8.9% 45.9% 54.8%
23 Pakuranga -6.6% 62.6% 69.2% 59 North Shore -9.0% 58.8% 67.7%
Christchurch
24 Rongotai -6.6% 28.5% 35.0%
60 Central -9.0% 39.5% 48.5%
25 Rimutaka -6.7% 39.4% 46.2%
Taranaki-King
26 Mana -6.8% 36.9% 43.7% 61 Country -9.1% 58.7% 67.7%
27 Rangitata -7.1% 53.5% 60.7% 62 Northland -9.1% 46.8% 55.9%
28 Tamaki -7.3% 63.0% 70.3% 63 Clutha Southland -9.3% 59.6% 69.0%
29 Dunedin North -7.3% 28.3% 35.6% 64 Ilam -9.4% 53.2% 62.7%
30 Otaki -7.3% 46.6% 54.0% 65 Napier -9.5% 46.6% 56.1%
31 Waikato -7.3% 59.3% 66.7% 66 Tukituki -9.6% 49.5% 59.1%
32 Dunedin South -7.4% 35.9% 43.3% 67 Port Hills -9.6% 41.1% 50.7%
33 Northcote -7.5% 49.5% 57.0% West Coast
34 Helensville -7.6% 56.7% 64.3% 68 Tasman -9.9% 40.4% 50.4%
35 Mt Albert -7.6% 34.5% 42.2% 69 New Plymouth -10.3% 49.3% 59.7%
36 Whanganui -7.6% 45.4% 53.0% 70 Whangarei -10.7% 45.6% 56.3%
37 Hamilton East -7.6% 48.2% 55.9% 71 Nelson -10.9% 39.6% 50.6%

Note 2014 right vote includes the Conservatives.

The only seat where the right vote increased was Manukau East by 0.1%.

The median change was Whanganui on -7.6%

The largest drops in support for the right was Nelson on 10.9% and Whangarei 10.7%.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 41 -

LEFT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17

Change 2017 2014 36 Te Tai Tonga 6.1% 64.5% 58.4%


1 Nelson 9.4% 49.1% 39.7% 37 Epsom 6.1% 32.9% 26.8%
2 New Plymouth 8.8% 38.6% 29.9% 38 Helensville 6.0% 33.1% 27.1%
3 Bay of Plenty 8.7% 29.5% 20.8% 39 Waitaki 5.9% 35.5% 29.5%
4 Tauranga 8.7% 30.7% 22.0% 40 Hunua 5.9% 25.3% 19.3%
5 Whangarei 8.5% 37.2% 28.7% 41 Auckland Central 5.9% 51.7% 45.8%
Christchurch 42 Wigram 5.8% 48.1% 42.2%
6 East 8.3% 54.0% 45.7% 43 Ohariu 5.8% 45.1% 39.3%
7 East Coast 8.3% 41.4% 33.1% 44 Invercargill 5.8% 39.1% 33.3%
8 Waimakariri 8.2% 36.4% 28.2% 45 Hamilton East 5.8% 41.6% 35.8%
West Coast 46 Clutha Southland 5.8% 28.7% 22.9%
9 Tasman 8.1% 45.4% 37.3% 47 Tamaki 5.8% 30.1% 24.3%
10 Port Hills 8.0% 49.7% 41.7% Palmerston
11 Whanganui 7.8% 41.3% 33.5% 48 North 5.7% 47.5% 41.8%
12 Dunedin South 7.8% 54.2% 46.4% 49 Pakuranga 5.6% 28.5% 22.9%
13 Rotorua 7.7% 36.4% 28.7% 50 Mana 5.3% 53.4% 48.2%
14 Napier 7.5% 42.8% 35.3% 51 Upper Harbour 5.2% 36.5% 31.3%
15 Kaikoura 7.5% 34.2% 26.7% 52 Mt Albert 5.1% 58.0% 52.9%
16 Wairarapa 7.5% 36.9% 29.4% 53 Dunedin North 5.0% 61.4% 56.5%
Christchurch 54 Te Tai Hauauru 4.8% 65.8% 61.0%
17 Central 7.4% 50.5% 43.1% Wellington
Taranaki-King 55 Central 4.7% 59.6% 54.9%
18 Country 7.2% 28.3% 21.1% 56 Waiariki 4.6% 62.8% 58.2%
19 Tukituki 7.2% 39.3% 32.1% 57 Te Atatu 4.6% 48.9% 44.3%
20 North Shore 7.1% 32.7% 25.6% 58 Botany 4.4% 31.7% 27.2%
21 Taupo 7.1% 32.4% 25.3% 59 Papakura 4.4% 36.4% 31.9%
22 Selwyn 7.1% 31.5% 24.4% 60 Rongotai 3.8% 62.2% 58.4%
23 Ilam 7.1% 38.4% 31.3% Tamaki
24 Northland 7.0% 36.2% 29.2% 61 Makaurau 3.8% 67.3% 63.5%
25 East Coast Bays 6.9% 28.0% 21.0% 62 Maungakiekie 3.7% 49.5% 45.8%
26 Otaki 6.9% 41.9% 35.0% 63 Hauraki-Waikato 3.5% 67.8% 64.3%
27 Coromandel 6.9% 33.1% 26.2% 64 Manurewa 3.2% 61.3% 58.2%
28 Rangitata 6.9% 37.1% 30.2% 65 Kelston 2.8% 57.1% 54.3%
29 Rimutaka 6.6% 48.9% 42.3% 66 Mt Roskill 2.7% 48.9% 46.2%
30 Rodney 6.5% 27.9% 21.4% 67 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 2.1% 70.4% 68.4%
31 Hamilton West 6.5% 41.1% 34.6% 68 New Lynn 1.6% 48.9% 47.2%
32 Rangitikei 6.4% 33.3% 26.9% 69 Mangere 1.0% 73.7% 72.7%
33 Northcote 6.3% 41.0% 34.7% 70 Te Tai Tokerau 0.6% 64.9% 64.3%
34 Hutt South 6.3% 47.7% 41.5% 71 Manukau East -0.5% 67.9% 68.4%
35 Waikato 6.2% 27.2% 21.1%

The 2014 vote includes Mana.

The left grew their vote in 70 out of 71 seats. The largest gains were 9.4% in Nelson and 8.8% in New
Plymouth.

The median change was Te Tai Tonga on +6.1%

The only drop was 0.5% in Manukau East.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 42 -

2017 VALID (PARTY) VOTERS


1 Rodney 45,281 37 Rangitikei 37,566
2 Selwyn 43,994 38 Whanganui 37,563
3 Waitaki 43,889 39 Dunedin North 37,299
4 Wellington Central 43,094 40 Clutha Southland 36,983
5 Port Hills 42,700 41 Taranaki-King Country 36,971
6 Coromandel 42,530 42 Northcote 36,920
7 Bay of Plenty 42,410 43 Hamilton West 36,822
8 Hutt South 41,697 44 Hamilton East 36,494
9 Nelson 41,651 45 Upper Harbour 36,388
10 Otaki 41,488 46 Ilam 36,357
11 Hunua 41,310 47 Invercargill 35,990
12 Rongotai 41,260 48 Rotorua 35,984
13 Whangarei 41,202 49 Pakuranga 35,807
14 Waikato 40,707 50 Christchurch Central 35,727
15 Northland 40,636 51 Maungakiekie 35,505
16 Wairarapa 40,468 52 Mt Roskill 35,454
17 Ohariu 40,361 53 Palmerston North 35,406
18 Taupo 40,309 54 Botany 35,117
19 Tauranga 40,075 55 Te Atatu 35,029
20 New Plymouth 40,017 56 East Coast Bays 34,996
21 Waimakariri 39,909 57 Christchurch East 34,729
22 North Shore 39,788 58 New Lynn 34,702
23 Dunedin South 39,764 59 Wigram 33,404
24 Kaikoura 39,609 60 Kelston 31,731
25 Rimutaka 39,530 61 Auckland Central 30,007
26 Helensville 39,266 62 Manurewa 28,195
27 Mana 39,122 63 Mangere 28,057
28 Epsom 39,016 64 Manukau East 26,995
29 Tukituki 38,962 65 Te Tai Tokerau 24,710
30 Napier 38,804 66 Waiariki 23,995
31 Mt Albert 38,614 67 Te Tai Tonga 23,940
32 East Coast 38,448 68 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 23,245
33 Tamaki 38,319 69 Hauraki-Waikato 22,814
34 Papakura 37,964 70 Te Tai Hauauru 22,784
35 Rangitata 37,912 71 Tamaki Makaurau 20,380
36 West Coast Tasman 37,724

Rodney had the highest number of valid voters at 45,281 followed by Selwyn and Waitaki.

The median electorate was West Coast Tasman with 37,724 votes. The mean was 36,506.

After the seven Maori seats which traditionally always have the lowest turnouts, we have South Auckland
and then Auckland Central.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 43 -

2017 TURNOUT
1 Selwyn 87.2% 37 Christchurch Central 81.0%
2 Wellington Central 86.6% 38 Rangitata 80.8%
3 Ohariu 86.1% 39 Rotorua 80.7%
4 Rongotai 85.4% 40 New Plymouth 80.7%
5 Otaki 85.3% 41 North Shore 80.5%
6 Port Hills 85.3% 42 Invercargill 80.5%
7 Waitaki 85.0% 43 Christchurch East 80.4%
8 Rodney 84.6% 44 Whanganui 80.2%
9 Helensville 84.4% 45 Auckland Central 79.9%
10 Hutt South 84.3% 46 Epsom 79.7%
11 Dunedin South 83.9% 47 Wigram 79.7%
12 Kaikoura 83.7% 48 Hamilton East 79.5%
13 Waimakariri 83.6% 49 East Coast 79.4%
14 Rangitikei 83.5% 50 Hamilton West 78.0%
15 Taranaki-King Country 83.4% 51 Northcote 77.6%
16 Bay of Plenty 83.2% 52 Papakura 77.3%
17 Napier 83.2% 53 Pakuranga 77.1%
18 Nelson 83.1% 54 Maungakiekie 77.0%
19 Wairarapa 83.1% 55 New Lynn 76.8%
20 Mana 83.0% 56 Te Atatu 76.8%
21 West Coast Tasman 83.0% 57 East Coast Bays 76.7%
22 Coromandel 82.8% 58 Mt Roskill 75.9%
23 Dunedin North 82.7% 59 Upper Harbour 75.7%
24 Northland 82.7% 60 Kelston 75.2%
25 Waikato 82.7% 61 Botany 72.6%
26 Tukituki 82.6% 62 Te Tai Tokerau 69.4%
27 Hunua 82.6% 63 Te Tai Hauauru 68.7%
28 Rimutaka 82.5% 64 Waiariki 68.6%
29 Tauranga 82.4% 65 Te Tai Tonga 68.3%
30 Ilam 82.3% 66 Manurewa 67.5%
31 Mt Albert 82.2% 67 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 67.4%
32 Taupo 82.1% 68 Mangere 67.1%
33 Clutha Southland 82.0% 69 Manukau East 66.1%
34 Tamaki 81.9% 70 Hauraki-Waikato 65.4%
35 Whangarei 81.7% 71 Tamaki Makaurau 59.2%
36 Palmerston North 81.5%

The overall turnout was 79.8% of enrolled adults. It is estimated 92.4% of the eligible population enrolled so
73.6% of eligible adults voted.

Selwyn had the highest turnout at 87.2% followed by Wellington Central and Ohariu.

The median electorate was Palmerston North at 81.5%.

After the seven Maori seats which traditionally always have the lowest turnouts, we have South Auckland
and then Botany.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


- 44 -

2017 PARTY VOTE PLACINGS


NAT LAB GRE NZF TOP MAO ACT
1st 45 26
2nd 20 45 1 5
3rd 1 24 45 1
4th 3 43 21 3 1
5th 2 4 4 58
6th 10 44
7th 27

This shows the number of seats in which each party came 1 st, 2nd, 3rd etc. in the party vote. This is out of the
five parliamentary parties plus Maori Party and TOP.

National won the party vote in 45 of the 71 seats, was 2nd in 20 and 3rd to 5th in six of the seven Maori seats.

Labour won the party vote in 26 seats and was 2nd in 45 seats.

NZ First were 2nd in the party vote in 1 electorate, 3rd in the party vote in 45 seats Median placing was 3rd.

The Greens were 3rd in 24 seats and 4th in 43 seats. Median placing was 4th.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com


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2017 ELECTORATE VOTE PLACINGS


NAT LAB GRE NZF TOP MAO MAN ACT UF
1st 41 29 1
2nd 23 40 1 1 5 1
3rd 2 41 23 2 1
4th 23 25 7 5 2
5th 8 11 8 23 2
6th 1 5 12 3
7th 2 3
8th

This shows the number of seats in which each party came 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc. in the electorate vote. This is out of
the parliamentary parties (and Maori, Mana, TOP and United Future) only.

National won the electorate vote in 41 seats, was 2nd in 23 of them.

Labour won the electorate vote in 29 of the 70 seats, was 2nd in 40 seats and 3rd in two seats.

The Greens were 2nd in one seat and 3rd in 41 seats.

NZ First were 2nd in one seat and 3rd in 23 seats.

2017 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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