Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2017 Final Election Results
2017 Final Election Results
OCTOBER 2017
CONTENTS
CONTENTS ....................................................................................................................................................... 2
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................... 3
2017 OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS ............................................................................................................ 4
OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS CHANGES 2014 TO 2017 .......................................................................... 5
2017 PARTY VOTE BY REGION ...................................................................................................................... 6
2017 PARTY VOTE BY AREA .......................................................................................................................... 7
PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2014 2017 BY REGION ......................................................................................... 8
PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2014 2017 BY AREA .............................................................................................. 9
NATIONAL 2017 PARTY VOTE ...................................................................................................................... 10
NATIONAL 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ............................................................................................ 11
NATIONAL 2017 ELECTORATE VOTE .......................................................................................................... 12
NATIONAL 2017 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE ................................................................................ 13
NATIONAL PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17 ............................................................................................. 14
NATIONAL PARTY VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 14 TO 17 ........................................................................... 15
NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17 ................................................................................. 16
NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 14 TO 17 ................................................................ 17
NATIONAL 2017 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE .................................................................................. 18
NATIONAL 2017 ELECTORATE MARGINS ................................................................................................... 19
2017 ELECTORATE MAJORITIES ................................................................................................................. 20
LABOUR 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ............................................................................................... 21
LABOUR 2017 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE ................................................................................... 22
LABOUR 2017 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE ..................................................................................... 23
LABOUR 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE/LAB + GREEN PARTY VOTE ............................................................ 24
LABOUR PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17.................................................................................................. 25
LABOUR ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17 .................................................................................... 26
GREENS 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ............................................................................................... 27
GREEN PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17.................................................................................................... 28
NZ FIRST 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE .............................................................................................. 29
NZ FIRST PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17 ................................................................................................ 30
TOP 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE....................................................................................................... 31
MAORI PARTY 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ..................................................................................... 32
MAORI PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17..................................................................................................... 33
ACT 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ....................................................................................................... 34
ACT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17 ........................................................................................................ 35
RIGHT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (National/ACT) .......................................................................... 36
CENTRE 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (NZ First/Maori/TOP) ............................................................ 37
LEFT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (Labour/Greens).......................................................................... 38
RIGHT LEFT 2017 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ..................................................................................... 39
RIGHT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17 ..................................................................................................... 40
LEFT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 14 TO 17 ........................................................................................................ 41
2017 VALID (PARTY) VOTERS ...................................................................................................................... 42
2017 TURNOUT .............................................................................................................................................. 43
2017 PARTY VOTE PLACINGS ...................................................................................................................... 44
2017 ELECTORATE VOTE PLACINGS .......................................................................................................... 45
INTRODUCTION
This document shows results for National, Labour, Greens, NZ First, TOP, Maori Party and ACT for the
country, by region and area and for each of the 71 electorates. Generally, each page has the electorates
ranked in order from best to worst for that particular criterion.
Electorates have been grouped into the five National Party Regions (plus a Maori Region) and also have
been grouped into Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Provincial, and Rural areas so results can be
compared for these groupings.
Parties have also been grouped together for bloc analysis. The following definitions have been used:
R L = Gap between votes for the right and the left parties
Centre parties are those who said they could support either National or Labour, and were not ruled out by
either.
Left parties are those who generally would not support a National-led Government.
David Farrar
October 2017
Right 44.95%
1,165,150
Centre 10.82%
280,547
Left 43.16%
1,118,627
RL 46,523 1.79%
The vote for centre-right parties was 2% higher than the vote for centre-left parties. Also of note is that National
got almost 47% of the effective vote.
The wasted vote was 4.7%, down from 6.2% in 2014. TOP were the highest of the parties that did not make
it.
2014
Party Party
2017 Electorate 2017 2014
Vote Vote %
Party Party Vote Electorate Electorate
Change
Vote % Change % Vote % Vote %
%
The gap between right and left on the party vote was just 2% in 2017, compared to 15% in 2014.
-
RL 7.6% 17.6% -3.9% 4.0% 1.8%
58.9%
The above figures are on the boundaries of the five National Party Regions. The seven Maori seats are treated
as a de facto sixth Region to allow a cleaner comparison from Region to Region.
National got over 50% in the CNI Region. LNI was the lowest Region at 42.1%
LNI Region is the best area for Labour at 38.1% followed by Southern at 37.2%. They are weakest in CNI at
30.1%.
The gap between National and Labour for each Region was:
Northern +12.7%
CNI +21.4%
LNI +4.0%
C/W +10.3%
Southern +8.0%
Auckland is defined as the 21 seats in greater Auckland stretching from Rodney in the North to Papakura
in the South.
Wellington is the six seats South of and including Mana and Rimutaka.
Christchurch is the six seats wholly or mainly in Christchurch including Waimakariri and Port Hills.
Provincial are those 17 seats which have more than 50% of their population in minor cities such as Nelson,
New Plymouth, Dunedin, Hamilton, Napier etc.
Rural are the 14 seats where less than 50% of the population live in a city.
NZ First does very well in provincial and rural NZ and worst in Wellington.
The gap between National and Labour for each area was:
Auckland +10.9%
Wellington -4.4%
Christchurch +5.5%
Provincial +8.1%
Rural +25.9%
- - -
RL -10.6% -13.3% -5.0%
15.5% 14.3% 15.9%
Labours biggest gain was 13.7% in C/W and smallest 9.4% in Northern.
- - -
RL -10.0% -15.0% -5.0%
14.0% 15.9% 15.6%
National dropped the most (4.5%) in Wellington and Christchurch and the least (0.9%) in Auckland.
Labour gained the most (14.1%) in Christchurch and the least (9.1%) in Auckland.
Rodney had the highest absolute party vote for National at 27,010 with Hunua second on 26,005.
In total 21 electorates got a party vote over 20,000 just two less than in 2014.
45 (-2) seats got a party vote over 15,000 and 61 (+1) seats had a party vote over 10,000.
The median electorate was Hutt South on 17,390 votes and the worst electorates after the Maori seats were
Mangere and Manukau East.
The number of electors who vote in each electorate can vary by over 10,000 so generally the percentage
National got is seen as a more useful comparison.
Port Hills in 27th place had the highest party vote of the seats we contested (excluding Epsom and Ohariu) but
did not win. Conversely Auckland Central in 58th place had the lowest party vote of the seats National did win.
On a percentage basis Hunua had the best party vote for National at 63.0% followed by East Coast Bays and
Pakuranga.
5 (-6) electorates got over 60% party vote, and 25 (-8) electorates got over 50% party vote. 49 (-4) electorates
got over 40% party vote.
Napier in 36th place was the highest polling seat of those National did not win but contested. Auckland Central
in 51st place had the lowest party vote percentage of the seats National did win.
Apart from the Maori seats Mangere, Manukau East and Dunedin North were worse for National on 17.3%,
22.9% and 27.8%.
Selwyn had the highest electorate vote for National at 28,686 with Rodney and Hunua following.
The median electorate was Tukituki on 18,280 votes and the worst electorates (Maori seats were not
contested) were Mangere and Manukau East.
The number of electors who vote in each electorate can vary by over 10,000 so generally the percentage
National got is seen as a more useful comparison.
Ohariu in 39th place had the highest electorate vote of the seats National contested but did not win. Conversely
Auckland Central in 46th place had the lowest electorate vote of the seats National did win.
Hunua had the highest percentage electorate vote at 66.66% followed by Taranaki-King Country and Selwyn.
12 seats (-5) had electorate votes of over 60% and 30 (-5) seats had an absolute majority of over 50%.
Napier on 40.5% in 42nd place had the highest electorate vote percentage of any seat which National did not win.
Northland in 46th place had the lowest percentage on 38.3% of a seat National did win.
Nationals electorate vote percentage was lowest in Mangere, Manukau East, and Mt Albert.
Nine of 71 electorate increased the party vote. Manukau East had the largest increase at 2.7%, followed by
New Lynn at 2.6%.
The seats with the largest decreases for National were Wellington Central, New Plymouth and Port Hills.
The key difference between this table and the previous is the percentage change is not shown as an
absolute shift in the percentage of the party vote, but the relative change as a percentage of the 2014 vote.
Manukau East and Mangere saw National grow their vote 13% and 11% in a relative sense.
Ohariu had the largest electorate vote increase at 23.7% followed by Waimakariri on 10.9% and Papakura
on 8.9%.
The biggest increase for a seat National did not win after Ohariu was Mt Roskill at 3.3% and New Lynn on
1.8%.
National increased the electorate vote % in 15 seats and had it drop in 51 seats.
The largest drops were in Rangitata 15.7%, Northland 14.4% and Nelson 12.7%.
The key difference between this table and the previous is the percentage change is not shown as an
absolute shift in the percentage of the party vote, but the relative change as a percentage of the 2005 vote.
Ohariu had the largest relative change with a 142.8% increase, followed by Napier and Waimakariri.
The median relative decrease was Rotorua with a 5.3% relative decrease.
This shows how National did in the electorate vote relative to the party vote in each seat. At 100% it means
the electorate vote percentage was exactly equal to the party vote percentage.
Taupo just pipped Auckland Central as the seat where the candidate was most popular relative to the party
vote at 117% and 115%. This was followed by Hutt South and Taranaki-King Country at 115% and 114%
respectively.
Christchurch Central was the highest of the general electorate seats National did not win at 102%.
The lowest ratio for a seat National did win was Northland at 82.6% then Wairarapa at 84.8%.
Please note this is the margin between the National Candidate and either the 2 nd place getter or the person
who won the seat.
Amy Adams in Selwyn has the largest majority at 19,639. In total National won 41 (nc) seats and have margins
of over 10,000 in 21 (-2) of them and over 5,000 in a further 11 (-2). Nationals most marginal seat is Northland
on 1,389 votes, followed by Hutt South and Auckland Central.
In six (+3) seats the National candidate was more than 10,000 votes behind the winning candidate. In a total
of 18 (+6) seats the National candidate was more than 5,000 votes behind the winning candidate.
There are three seats (Ohariu, New Lynn and Christchurch Central) National lost by less than 3.000 votes.
National has the top six majorities. Jacinda Ardern for Labour in Mt Albert is the 7th.
There are 28 (+2) majorities over 10,000 21 National, and seven Labour.
Of the 12 majorities below 3,000 seven are National held and six are Labour held.
Mangere had the best party vote for Labour at 71.0% followed by Manukau East.
Labour got over 50% party vote in 11 (+8) seats, and over 40% in 27 (+19) seats. In 52 (+30) seats they got
over 30%. They got below 30% in 19 seats.
The seat they did best in that National won was Maungakiekie at 35.3%.
West Coast Tasman had the lowest party vote of any seat they won. It was 37th with 23.5%, followed by
Wellington Central and Port Hills.
Hauraki-Waikato had the highest electorate vote for Labour at 71.6% followed by Mangere at 70.3%.
Their lowest percentage for a seat which they won was Tamaki Makaurau at 38.3%, Te Tai Hauauru 31.4%
and then Napier at 2.7%. Conversely their best result in a seat they did not win was Auckland Central at
43.6%.
Their worst seat was Epsom at 9.4% and then Selwyn at 10.9%. In 21 seats their candidate got under 25%.
This shows how Labour did in the electorate vote relative to the party vote in each seat. At 100% it means
the electorate vote was exactly equal to the party vote.
Mt Albert is the seat where the candidate was most popular relative to the party vote at 149%. This was
followed by Napier and Port Hills at 143% and 137% respectively.
The lowest ratio was in Whangarei at 61%, Ilam at 69%, and Northland 72%.
In this table we compare the Labour electorate vote to the combined party vote for Labour and Greens. This
removes the impact of Green voters who tactically voted for the Labour candidate to get a better idea of
which Labour candidates attracted support beyond the main left party vote.
Napier is the seat where the candidate was most popular relative to the L/G party vote at 127%. This was
followed by Rimutaka and Mt Roskill at 115% and 113% respectively.
In only 14 seats did the Labour candidate get more votes than the combined party vote for Labour and
Greens.
Labour gained party vote in all 71 seats. The largest increases were the Maori seats followed by Nelson 17%
and Auckland Central 16%.
13 seats had a gain of over 15%, and 55 seats had a gain of over 10%.
Labours smallest gains were South Auckland and then New Lynn.
Labours increased the electorate vote in 57 seats. The biggest were Waiariki with a huge 37% gain and then
Napier with 12%.
Labour lost EV in 14 seats. The biggest drops were 9.7% in Waimakariri, 4.3% in Northland and Hamilton
West and 3.8% in New Lynn.
The Greens again did well in Wellington achieving 21.3% in Wellington Central and 17.8% in Rongotai.
In six seats they got over 10%, and in 42 seats, over 5%.
Their median seat was Mt Selwyn on 5.3%. This is less than their average of 6.3% so their stronger seats
drags them up.
Their worst seats were Manukau East and Botany. They were below 4% in 13 seats.
10 (-14) seats got into double digits for NZ First. In total 59 (-7) out of 71 seats had NZ First over the 5%
threshold.
Their lowest support was in central city seats such as Wellington Central and Epsom at 2.3% and 3.1%.
The biggest drops were the Maori seats followed by Tauranga and Bay of Plenty.
TOPs highest party vote was in Wellington Central at 5.9% then Rongotai 4.6% and Ohariu 4.2%
They got over 5% party vote in just 1 seats. They were over 3% in 16 seats
As expected the Maori Party did best amongst the seven Maori seats. They had considerable variation
though ranging from 19.7% in Waiariki to 6.5% in Te Tai Tokerau.
Acts highest party vote was in Epsom where David Seymour stood at 1.8%.
East Coast Bays at 63.9% had the highest right vote followed by Hunua. 7 (-17) seats in total had a right
vote over 60% and 25 (-18) seats had a right vote of over 50%.
The lowest electorates after the Maori seats and South Auckland were Dunedin North, Rongotai and
Wellington Central.
The seat with the highest right party vote that Labour won was Napier at 46.6%.
The seat with the lowest right party vote that National won was Nelson at 39.6%.
After the Maori seats Whangarei is next highest with 16.1% for centre parties, followed by Northland and
Tauranga.
The lowest electorates for the centre were Botany, Epsom and Tamaki.
Mangere at 73.7% had the highest left vote followed by Ikaroa-Rawhiti. 20 (+5) seats in total had a left vote
over 50%.
32 (-10) seats have a total left vote of under 40% and eight (-18) under 30%.
The lowest electorates for the left were Hunua, Waikato and Rodney.
Hunua had the largest margin between the vote for the right and the left at 38.4%. They are followed by East
Coast Bays and Pakuranga.
Eight seats have a greater than 30% gap, and 40 (-12) seats (out of 71) have the right with more votes than
the left.
In 31 seats the left got more votes than the right, In 15 of those seats, by more than 20%.
The median electorate was Otaki with the right 4.8% ahead of the left.
The seven Maori seats and South Auckland are most favourable to the left with party vote margins of over
50%.
The seat with the highest right-left margin Labour won was Napier at +3.8%. The seat with the lowest right-
left margin that National won was Auckland Central at -11.4%.
The only seat where the right vote increased was Manukau East by 0.1%.
The largest drops in support for the right was Nelson on 10.9% and Whangarei 10.7%.
The left grew their vote in 70 out of 71 seats. The largest gains were 9.4% in Nelson and 8.8% in New
Plymouth.
Rodney had the highest number of valid voters at 45,281 followed by Selwyn and Waitaki.
The median electorate was West Coast Tasman with 37,724 votes. The mean was 36,506.
After the seven Maori seats which traditionally always have the lowest turnouts, we have South Auckland
and then Auckland Central.
2017 TURNOUT
1 Selwyn 87.2% 37 Christchurch Central 81.0%
2 Wellington Central 86.6% 38 Rangitata 80.8%
3 Ohariu 86.1% 39 Rotorua 80.7%
4 Rongotai 85.4% 40 New Plymouth 80.7%
5 Otaki 85.3% 41 North Shore 80.5%
6 Port Hills 85.3% 42 Invercargill 80.5%
7 Waitaki 85.0% 43 Christchurch East 80.4%
8 Rodney 84.6% 44 Whanganui 80.2%
9 Helensville 84.4% 45 Auckland Central 79.9%
10 Hutt South 84.3% 46 Epsom 79.7%
11 Dunedin South 83.9% 47 Wigram 79.7%
12 Kaikoura 83.7% 48 Hamilton East 79.5%
13 Waimakariri 83.6% 49 East Coast 79.4%
14 Rangitikei 83.5% 50 Hamilton West 78.0%
15 Taranaki-King Country 83.4% 51 Northcote 77.6%
16 Bay of Plenty 83.2% 52 Papakura 77.3%
17 Napier 83.2% 53 Pakuranga 77.1%
18 Nelson 83.1% 54 Maungakiekie 77.0%
19 Wairarapa 83.1% 55 New Lynn 76.8%
20 Mana 83.0% 56 Te Atatu 76.8%
21 West Coast Tasman 83.0% 57 East Coast Bays 76.7%
22 Coromandel 82.8% 58 Mt Roskill 75.9%
23 Dunedin North 82.7% 59 Upper Harbour 75.7%
24 Northland 82.7% 60 Kelston 75.2%
25 Waikato 82.7% 61 Botany 72.6%
26 Tukituki 82.6% 62 Te Tai Tokerau 69.4%
27 Hunua 82.6% 63 Te Tai Hauauru 68.7%
28 Rimutaka 82.5% 64 Waiariki 68.6%
29 Tauranga 82.4% 65 Te Tai Tonga 68.3%
30 Ilam 82.3% 66 Manurewa 67.5%
31 Mt Albert 82.2% 67 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 67.4%
32 Taupo 82.1% 68 Mangere 67.1%
33 Clutha Southland 82.0% 69 Manukau East 66.1%
34 Tamaki 81.9% 70 Hauraki-Waikato 65.4%
35 Whangarei 81.7% 71 Tamaki Makaurau 59.2%
36 Palmerston North 81.5%
The overall turnout was 79.8% of enrolled adults. It is estimated 92.4% of the eligible population enrolled so
73.6% of eligible adults voted.
Selwyn had the highest turnout at 87.2% followed by Wellington Central and Ohariu.
After the seven Maori seats which traditionally always have the lowest turnouts, we have South Auckland
and then Botany.
This shows the number of seats in which each party came 1 st, 2nd, 3rd etc. in the party vote. This is out of the
five parliamentary parties plus Maori Party and TOP.
National won the party vote in 45 of the 71 seats, was 2nd in 20 and 3rd to 5th in six of the seven Maori seats.
Labour won the party vote in 26 seats and was 2nd in 45 seats.
NZ First were 2nd in the party vote in 1 electorate, 3rd in the party vote in 45 seats Median placing was 3rd.
The Greens were 3rd in 24 seats and 4th in 43 seats. Median placing was 4th.
This shows the number of seats in which each party came 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc. in the electorate vote. This is out of
the parliamentary parties (and Maori, Mana, TOP and United Future) only.
Labour won the electorate vote in 29 of the 70 seats, was 2nd in 40 seats and 3rd in two seats.