Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunitys

Office of Trade and Investment

Illinois Exports
Annual Report 2016

By Atul Nair
Export Data Source World Institute for Strategic Economic Research (WISERTrade) via Census Bureau
Other sources are in the appendix as well as other additional supplementary research
Executive Summary
Illinois exports totaled over $63.4 billion in 2014, a 7.3% decrease over 2014
Since 2009, Illinois exports have increased by $21.8 billion, or 52.4%, outperforming the national average of 42.3%
Illinois is the largest exporting state in the Midwest and the 5th largest exporting state in the U.S.
All Illinois industrial categories have seen gains since 2009
Other smaller industries experienced proportionally greater losses that contributed to Illinois export decline. Machinery weakness can be attributed to
sales stagnation at very large firms. Petroleum and Coal Products can squarely be attributed to the decline in oil price, with minor changes in volume.
In 2015, Illinois increased year-over-year exports to 6 of its top 10 markets
Mexico was the largest single contributor to growth, with a $1.1 billion, or 13.7% increase over 2014
9 of 10 Illinois partner countries have seen gains since 2009
Generally Chemicals and Computer and Electronic Products have done well in 2015. Machinery has continued its poor performance. Regionally, sales to
Asia, Europe, and Latin America have done well. While export sales to Canada have hit a wall due to commodity price crash (mainly in Oil) and weakness in
the loonie (Canadian Dollar).
One major factor that can describe the headwinds that face US exports is the increase in value of the US Dollar during 2014-2015 and the increased level
maintained since. This higher valuation, against major world currencies, creates a new barrier to US exports by making products priced in USD more
expensive that competing products priced in other currencies. This fact has been cited by many DCEO-OTI clients as a factor why sales that happened
during 2012-2014 period have not materialized in the period since 2014-2015.
Overall Time based analysis indicates continued weakness, with hopefully some relief coming from depressed prior year results.
4th and 2nd quarters are Illinois strongest, while the 1s t and 3rd are the weakest. Illinois strongest export months are October followed by March and May.
Illinois weakest months are January followed by February and December.
Overall Illinois Exports
Illinois exports totaled over $63.4 billion in 2014, a 7.3% decrease over 2014
Since 2009, Illinois exports have increased by $21.8 billion, or 52.4%, outperforming the national average of 42.3%
Direct exports accounted for over 8% of the Gross State Product (GSP). IL GSP is 784 Billion, 17 th largest in the world.
Illinois is the largest exporting state in the Midwest and the 5th largest exporting state in the U.S.

$70
Illinois Exports
$60
(in billions)

$50

$40

$30

$20

$10

$0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Comparison of Exports
% change % change
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2015 vs 2014 2009 vs 2015
Illinois 41,626,110,699 50,060,707,025 64,902,904,219 68,157,880,309 66,157,176,406 68,246,837,088 63,402,314,659 -7.1% 52.3%
USA 1,056,042,963,028 1,278,494,525,839 1,482,507,755,226 1,545,820,839,892 1,578,439,230,852 1,620,531,899,958 1,504,597,470,614 -7.2% 42.5%
Michigan 32,655,333,884 44,851,338,759 51,063,992,243 57,051,460,900 58,651,788,932 55,928,500,991 53,171,398,477 -4.9% 62.8%
Wisconsin 16,724,996,880 19,800,247,695 22,068,884,434 23,118,995,133 23,108,675,658 23,428,059,266 22,445,122,532 -4.2% 34.2%
Indiana 22,907,367,488 28,764,260,136 32,332,054,981 34,398,866,943 34,154,533,203 35,467,036,651 33,652,462,197 -5.1% 46.9%
Iowa 9,042,125,564 10,879,762,927 13,316,520,712 14,622,238,610 13,883,072,861 15,092,200,558 13,113,615,750 -13.1% 45.0%
Missouri 9,522,229,617 12,924,556,333 14,161,092,655 13,903,241,672 12,930,037,104 14,140,665,981 13,616,732,443 -3.7% 43.0%

Illinois Industrial Exports

Chemical products were the single largest contributor to growth by percentage, with a 16.3%, a $1.2 billion dollar increase over 2014
Computer And Electronic Products was the second largest contributor to growth with a $680.3 million, or 9.3% increase over 2014
All Illinois industrial categories have seen gains since 2009

Illinois' Top 10 Export Industries 85.3% of 2015 Annual Exports

Change Since 2009
Total (Billions)
Machinery, Except Electrical $ 11.0 14.6%
Chemicals $ 8.8 42.3%
Transportation Equipment $ 8.1 99.9%
Computer And Electronic Products $ 8.0 73.1%
Electrical Equipment, Appliances, And
Component $ 3.7 63.1%
Food And Kindred Products $ 3.4 39.5%
Fabricated Metal Products, Nesoi $ 3.3 80.4%
Petroleum And Coal Products $ 2.9 938.5%
Agricultural Products $ 2.5 28.1%
Miscellaneous Manufactured Commodities $ 2.4 22.5%
Total All Industries $ 63.4 52.4%
Industry statistics reveal that strength came from Chemicals (1.33 Billion, 17.5%) and Computer and Electronic Products (688.5 Million, 9.4%). Weakness came
from Petroleum and Coal Products (-2.38 Billion, -44.7%), Machinery, except electrical (-2.02 Billion, -15.6%), and Agricultural Products (-664 Million, -20.7%)
% change % change
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 vs Gross Change 2009 vs
Illinois Exports by NAICS Industry 2014 2015 vs 2014 2015
Total IL Exports 41,626,110,699 50,060,707,025 64,902,904,219 68,157,880,309 66,157,176,406 68,246,837,088 63,402,314,659 -7.1% -4,844,522,429 52.3%
Machinery, Except Electrical 9,565,137,414 12,483,912,058 17,846,510,688 19,611,351,460 14,490,293,571 12,921,651,120 10,900,703,507 -15.6% -2,020,947,613 14.0%
Chemicals 6,218,669,928 6,478,505,402 8,512,960,157 7,881,476,854 7,283,544,959 7,602,701,024 8,929,809,068 17.5% 1,327,108,044 43.6%
Computer And Electronic Products 4,620,487,725 5,495,518,680 6,092,510,926 6,091,857,210 6,460,384,785 7,313,782,665 8,002,278,068 9.4% 688,495,403 73.2%
Transportation Equipment 4,030,300,911 5,327,164,377 6,677,352,500 7,446,682,782 7,844,795,239 8,040,304,613 7,996,123,445 -0.5% -44,181,168 98.4%
Electrical Equipment, Appliances, And Component 2,241,755,692 2,638,055,840 3,123,156,978 3,789,025,146 3,755,031,324 3,824,710,007 3,640,827,463 -4.8% -183,882,544 62.4%
Food And Kindred Products 2,462,871,044 2,640,709,257 2,704,549,879 3,076,392,423 3,527,356,523 3,597,269,168 3,418,534,302 -5.0% -178,734,866 38.8%
Fabricated Metal Products, Nesoi 1,836,136,053 2,254,437,355 2,847,244,779 3,099,974,036 3,073,278,252 3,414,738,525 3,302,682,383 -3.3% -112,056,142 79.9%
Petroleum And Coal Products 283,194,812 1,015,405,186 3,112,133,494 2,882,814,237 4,357,463,719 5,324,245,499 2,942,515,489 -44.7% -2,381,730,010 939.0%
Agricultural Products 1,983,082,039 1,450,924,187 2,606,498,241 2,129,376,015 3,251,014,106 3,209,576,979 2,545,860,857 -20.7% -663,716,122 28.4%
Miscellaneous Manufactured Commodities 1,936,434,586 2,225,275,028 2,337,208,698 2,321,426,180 2,240,272,208 2,420,078,954 2,379,013,076 -1.7% -41,065,878 22.9%
Top 10 Total 35,178,070,204 42,009,907,370 55,860,126,340 58,330,376,343 56,283,434,686 57,669,058,554 54,058,347,658 -3,610,710,896
% of total 84.5% 83.9% 86.1% 85.6% 85.1% 84.5% 85.3% 74.5%

It should be noted, that the top 10 industries explained only 74.5% of the gross change year over year while contributing 85.3% of the total dollar value. Other
smaller industries experienced proportionally greater losses that contributed to Illinois export decline. Machinery weakness can be attributed to sales
stagnation at very large firms. Petroleum and Coal Products can squarely be attributed to the decline in oil price, with minor changes in volume.
Illinois Regional Exports
In 2015, Illinois increased year-over-year exports to 6 of its top 10 markets
Mexico was the largest single contributor to growth, with a $1.1 billion, or 13.7% increase over 2014
Other notable growth markets include: Netherlands $0.4 billion (24.7%); Germany $0.3 billion (9.6%); China $0.2 billion (3.4%)
9 of 10 Illinois partner countries have seen gains since 2009

Illinois' Top 10 Partner 2015 Annual Exports Change Since

Countries (73.0% of total) (Billions) 2009

Canada $ 17.5 44.2%

Mexico $ 9.1 156.6%
China $ 4.9 97.3%
Germany $ 3.1 55.8%
Australia $ 2.6 65.6%
Japan $ 2.0 14.6%
Netherlands $ 1.9 97.1%
United Kingdom $ 1.7 -12.3%
Brazil $ 1.7 39.0%
Belgium $ 1.6 73.4%
Total All Partner Countries $ 63.4 52.4%
Illinois Exports by Region
% change Gross Change % change
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2014 2009 vs 2015
Africa 1,034,146,813 1,098,010,060 1,619,197,418 1,889,432,415 1,625,007,041 1,801,912,456 1,278,452,567 -29.1% -523,459,889 23.6%
Asia 9,428,224,881 10,955,966,236 13,481,587,460 13,590,302,870 14,118,697,763 14,053,060,616 13,407,197,081 -4.6% -645,863,535 42.2%
Middle East 1,077,719,787 1,190,722,306 1,457,872,682 1,780,863,910 1,805,504,092 2,160,142,594 2,407,629,325 11.5% 247,486,731 123.4%
Australia and Oceania 1,691,382,732 2,538,342,154 3,849,409,956 5,497,866,897 2,919,769,002 2,566,735,347 2,787,207,085 8.6% 220,471,738 64.8%
Europe 9,398,594,950 9,970,953,429 12,996,311,978 12,919,874,203 11,555,749,855 11,686,810,749 12,135,110,660 3.8% 448,299,911 29.1%
Mexico, Latin America,
and Caribbean 6,869,187,840 9,274,613,493 12,025,848,816 13,064,100,619 13,827,103,989 13,896,117,884 13,965,919,457 0.5% 69,801,573 103.3%
Canada 12,124,780,689 15,031,451,192 19,472,385,182 19,414,932,219 20,305,074,613 22,081,991,328 17,420,769,954 -21.1% -4,661,221,374 43.7%
*Note regional analysis has a very slight discrepancy between its total and reported regular total.

2015 trade data reveals Illinois has experienced growth from the following regions: Europe ($448 Million, 3.8%), Middle East ($247 Million, 11.5%), and
Australia & Oceania ($220 Million, 8.6%). Some specific highlights include:

Exports to Europe increased by $694.4 million in the Chemicals and $251.3 million in the Computer and Electronic Products sectors.
Exports to Asia increased by $323.8 million in the Chemicals and $294.6 million in the Computer and Electronic Products.
Finally, export increased by $462.3 million to Latin America, Mexico and Caribbean in the Transportation Equipment, $224.3 million in the Computer and
Electronic Products, and $212.4 million in the Chemicals sectors

2015 trade data illustrates Illinois has experienced a decline in exports the following regions: Canada ($-4.66 Billion, -21.1%), Asia ($-646 Million, -4.6%), and
Africa ($-523 Million, -29.1%). Some specific highlights include:

Exports to Canada decreased by $-2.39 Billion in the Petroleum and Coal Products, $-515.0 million in the Machinery, except Electrical (Heavy Equipment),
$-455.6 million in Oil and Gas, $-362.3 million in the Transportation Equipment, and finally $-155.0 million in the Chemicals sectors.
Exports to Latin America, Mexico and Caribbean decreased by $-728.9 million in the Machinery, except Electrical sector (Heavy Equipment)
Finally, exports to Asia decreased by $-504.2 million in the Agricultural Products, and $-184.1 million in the Transportation Equipment sectors
Illinois Export Trade by Industry and Region

Top 10 Industries by Region (Growth)

Gross Change 2015 vs
Region Industry (NAICS)
2014
1 Europe Chemicals $ 694,395,870
2 Mexico, Latin America, and Caribbean Transportation Equipment $ 462,261,803
3 Asia Chemicals $ 323,849,452
4 Asia Computer And Electronic Products $ 294,639,580
5 Europe Computer And Electronic Products $ 251,251,915
6 Australia and Oceania Chemicals $ 228,491,165
7 Mexico, Latin America, and Caribbean Computer And Electronic Products $ 224,265,567
8 Mexico, Latin America, and Caribbean Chemicals $ 212,379,319
9 Middle East Transportation Equipment $ 164,311,313
10 Mexico, Latin America, and Caribbean Plastics And Rubber Products $ 54,485,736
Top 10 Industries by Region (Decline)
Gross Change 2015 vs
Region Industry (NAICS)
2014
1 Canada Petroleum And Coal Products $ (2,393,248,367)
2 Mexico, Latin America, and Caribbean Machinery, Except Electrical $ (728,890,329)
3 Canada Machinery, Except Electrical $ (515,006,294)
4 Asia Agricultural Products $ (504,154,765)
5 Canada Oil And Gas $ (455,645,881)
6 Canada Transportation Equipment $ (362,354,677)
7 Africa Machinery, Except Electrical $ (382,499,431)
8 Europe Machinery, Except Electrical $ (255,321,112)
9 Asia Transportation Equipment $ (184,094,003)
10 Canada Chemicals $ (154,966,470)

The above chart showcases regional and industrial strengths and weaknesses of Illinois exports. Generally Chemicals and Computer and Electronic Products have
done well in 2015. Machinery has continued its poor performance. Regionally, sales to Asia, Europe, and Latin America have done well. While export sales to
Canada have hit a wall due to commodity price crash (mainly in Oil) and weakness in the loonie (Canadian Dollar).
DYX Chart (Dollar Index)

One major factor that can describe the headwinds that face US exports is the increase in value of the US Dollar during 2014-2015 and the increased level has
been maintained since. This higher valuation, against major world currencies, creates a new barrier to US exports by making products priced in USD more
expensive that competing products priced in other currencies. This fact has been cited by many DCEO-OTI clients as a factor why sales that happened during
2012-2014 period have not materialized in the period since 2014-2015.
Baltic Dry Index
Other indices that can indicate trade health is the Baltic Dry Index.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a shipping and trade index created by the London-based Baltic Exchange that measures changes in the cost to transport various raw
materials. The exchange directly contacts shipping brokers to assess price levels for a given route, product to transport and time to delivery, or speed. The Baltic
Dry Index is a composite of three subindices that measure different sizes of dry bulk carriers, or merchant ships: Capesize, Panamax and Supramax.

A change in the Baltic Dry Index can give investors insight into global supply and demand trends, and is considered a leading indicator of future economic when
assessing the type of goods shipped, such as raw, pre-production material, which is typically an area with very low levels of speculation. Because the supply of
large carriers tends to remain very tight, with long lead times and high production costs, the index can experience high levels of volatility if global demand
increases or drops off suddenly. One thing to keep in mind, over the long term this index reflects supply of ships as well as demand for ocean shipping.
Other Factors Affecting Trade
Other factors Free Trade Agreements, Implementation of Tariffs, and geopolitical instability.

Illinois Export Trade over Time

So now we know which countries and industries contributed to growth or decline in Illinois exports. What does that mean for the future? One way to show
what may come is to use momentum indicators. A typical method is month over month (MoM) comparisons, these will be cited in news reports below is Illinois
MoM chart. Overall Time based analysis indicates continued weakness, with hopefully some relief coming from depressed prior year results.

IL Exports Month over Month - (MoM)

2016 2015 2014 2013 2102 2011 2010 2009 2008
January -7.5% -3.3% -5.4% -8.3% -6.3% 2.2% -2.5% -10.6% N/A
February 6.5% -5.9% -3.9% 10.8% 12.1% -5.5% 2.8% 4.9% 3.2%
March 3.3% 15.0% 18.3% 8.5% 5.8% 31.6% 14.0% 8.4% 8.5%
April -5.0% -5.4% -8.9% -4.1% -3.7% -5.1% -2.8% -14.3% -0.1%
May 4.0% 2.0% 5.1% 0.5% 3.7% 2.5% 3.1% 5.8%
June -3.1% -0.9% -6.8% -1.5% -1.5% 5.1% 1.4% -6.9%
July -5.9% -4.4% 1.8% -5.4% 2.2% -6.6% -2.6% 0.8%
August 1.0% 1.0% 3.4% 1.0% -2.2% 1.2% 3.1% 6.7%
September 2.2% -0.6% -9.1% -1.8% 1.0% 1.6% 3.1% -1.6%
October 5.0% 7.5% 26.7% 2.6% -4.3% 13.0% 6.2% 1.0%
November -4.6% -4.8% -7.7% -4.0% -0.6% -8.3% -0.3% -7.3%
December -3.6% -5.1% -1.2% -6.3% 3.8% 4.4% -1.0% -16.8%
This chart compares the current months total trade to the month preceding it

The chart above depicts whether a month is relatively strong or weak. March of 2011 is a very strong month, same with October 2013, March 2014, and
March 2015. However this method tends to focused on the short term. This chart is valuable by indicating months where a shift in the trend could be indicated,
but overall the chart ends up being an undiscernible hodgepodge of variable trade noise.
 A better but not often used indicator is to compare a month of trade to its counterpart in the prior year. This method helps to mask: trade noise, trade
patterns, and business practices. Therefore it helps to unmask evidence of the direction in which the Illinois export trend is heading.

IL Exports Month Year over Month Year - (MY o MY)

2016 2015 2014 2013 2102 2011 2010 2009
January -10.5% -5.7% 18.3% -10.3% 12.5% 30.3% -12.4% -18.7%
February 1.3% -7.6% 2.6% -11.3% 33.4% 19.9% 5.7% -17.4%
March -9.0% -10.1% 11.7% -9.0% 7.3% 38.3% 11.2% -17.5%
April -8.6% -6.7% 6.1% -9.3% 8.8% 35.0% 26.1% -29.2%
May -4.8% 3.0% -5.2% 5.5% 36.6% 25.3% -31.0%
June -7.0% 9.5% -10.3% 5.4% 28.0% 29.9% -24.9%
July -8.4% 2.9% -3.5% -2.4% 40.1% 24.6% -27.4%
August -8.4% 0.5% -1.1% 0.8% 35.4% 22.3% -29.9%
September -5.9% 9.9% -8.5% -2.0% 34.5% 20.5% -26.5%
October -8.1% -6.7% 13.1% 5.1% 13.8% 28.3% -22.7%
November -7.9% -3.8% 8.7% 1.5% 23.4% 17.9% -16.9%
December -6.4% -7.7% 14.6% -8.4% 22.8% 24.3% -1.1%
This chart compares the difference a months total trade versus the same month for the prior year

As shown in the chart above, you see Illinois Month Year over Month Year (MY o MY). A clear trend and pattern emerges, it shows clear periods of
strength and weakness. This is a more useful indicator. It shows that 2009 was a period of weakness compared to the prior highs of 2008; subsequently it shows
that the recovery period started in 2010 and continued into 2012. Later, trade mellowed from 2012s highs, and began to recover in October 2013. Finally, the
chart show that the October recovery was short lived, subsequent sluggishness has continued for over a year.
Historical Temporal Trends
Illinois export trade data shows interesting and predictable patterns of trade. For example, in the chart below, we demonstrate historically which quarters
and months show strong and weak trade results. Monthly data is from 2008-2015, while quarterly data spans the whole data set 1997 2015.

Aggregated IL Exports by Month

2008-2015 Gross Average
Jan $ 36,264,678,699 $ 4,533,084,837
Feb $ 37,010,896,593 $ 4,626,362,074
Mar $ 42,051,295,830 $ 5,256,411,979
Apr $ 39,780,113,775 $ 4,972,514,222
May $ 41,087,496,190 $ 5,135,937,024
Jun $ 40,226,324,107 $ 5,028,290,513
Jul $ 39,210,890,084 $ 4,901,361,261
Aug $ 39,886,375,138 $ 4,985,796,892
Sep $ 39,511,925,611 $ 4,938,990,701
Oct $ 42,253,385,029 $ 5,281,673,129
Nov $ 40,195,570,208 $ 5,024,446,276
Dec $ 38,918,333,073 $ 4,864,791,634

Aggregated IL Exports by Quarter Since Recession

1997-2015 Gross Average (2010 - 2015)
Q1 $ 200,057,731,875 $ 10,529,354,309.21 $ 15,330,678,715
Q2 $ 212,757,666,912 $ 11,197,771,942.74 $ 16,223,622,011
Q3 $ 205,493,790,152 $ 10,815,462,639.58 $ 15,730,229,819
Q4 $ 214,451,206,506 $ 11,286,905,605.58 $ 16,231,085,401

The table above shows that 4 th and 2nd are Illinois strongest quarters, while the 1 s t and 3rd are the weakest. This is reinforced with the monthly chart.
Illinois strongest months are October followed by March and May. Illinois weakest months are January followed by February and December. Since the
recession, 3rd quarter weakness has mellowed, still 1 s t quarter is the weakest.
Other Sources/Opinions
http://dupress.com/articles/2016-us-export-growth-outlook-uncertain/

The US dollar began appreciating rapidly in mid-2014 and has since then risen by approximately 20 percent. While not yet at a historical high, this
represents a significant loss of competitiveness for US exporters. Given that the United States is a rarity among nations with rising interest rates and
reasonable growth prospects, we can likely expect to see further appreciation this year.

However, a high dollar is not the only headwind facing US exporters. Many US trading partners experienced relatively slower growth in 2015 and are not
expecting much better in 2016, according to projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As shown in table 1, goods exports1 to 15 of the United
States top 20 export markets declined in 2015 as compared to 2014. The declines were particularly significant in exports to Canada (-$32.1 billion), Brazil (-
$10.8 billion), and China (-$7.5 billion)three countries that experienced sizable slowdowns in growth last year and that are not expected to rebound to
their 2014 rates in 2016. The only sizable increase in exports was to the United Kingdom, where the value of exports grew in 2015 by $2.5 billion. However,
slower growth projections for the United Kingdom in 2016 might put even this one bright spot at risk this year.

The outsized impact of falling oil prices on the nominal value of exports of industrial supplies and materials should mitigate in 2016 because even if the
price of oil remains low, it does not have much room to fall further. However, slowing global growth will limit export potential, particularly among
commodities. The dollar is far more likely to rise further than it is to fall in 2016, which means that the price differential between more differentiated
products will not favor the United States. One category, in particular, that will be under pressure is personal travel to the United States and this could
negatively impact the leisure and hospitality industry this year.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-export-weakness-hampers-growth-1443576283

The Federal Reserve worries exports will be a persistent drag on the broader economy going forward. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer in August 2015
said it was plausible to think that the rise in the dollar over the past year would restrain growththrough 2016 and perhaps into 2017. If the Fed begins
to raise short-term interest rates later this year, that could provide new fuel to push the dollars value even higher.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/9e2533d6-dbd8-11e5-9ba8-3abc1e7247e4.html#axzz4IvSZmL3r
Weaker demand from emerging markets made 2015 the worst year for world trade since the aftermath of the global financial crisis, highlighting rising fears
about the health of the global economy.

The value of goods that crossed international borders last year fell 13.8 per cent in dollar terms the first contraction since 2009 according to the
Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysiss World Trade Monitor. Much of the slump was due to a slowdown in China and other emerging
economies.

Those concerns are casting a shadow over a two-day meeting of G20 central bank governors and finance ministers due to start on Friday. Mark Carney, the
Bank of England governor, was set to warn the gathering that the global economy risked becoming trapped in a low growth, low inflation, low interest
rate equilibrium.

His comments will echo the International Monetary Fund, which this week warned it was poised to downgrade its forecast for global growth this year,
saying the worlds leading economies needed to do more to boost growth.

The Baltic Dry index, a measure of global trade in bulk commodities, has been touching historic lows. China, which in 2014 overtook the US as the worlds
biggest trading nation, this month reported double-digit falls in both exports and imports in January. In Brazil, which is now experiencing its worst recession
in more than a century, imports from China have collapsed.

Largely because of currency swings and a collapse in the price of commodities the value of both exports and imports fell in every region of the world last
year.

The US, where a strong dollar has been a growing challenge for manufacturers, saw the value of exports fall 6.3 per cent in 2015 while the value of exports
from Africa and the Middle East collapsed 41.4 per cent thanks largely to the dramatic fall in the price of oil.

https://globalconnections.hsbc.com/global/en/tools-data/trade-forecasts/global

https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres16_e/pr768_e.htm

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/update/01/
Overall growth in China is evolving broadly as envisaged, but with a faster-than-expected slowdown in imports and exports, in part reflecting weaker
investment and manufacturing activity. These developments, together with market concerns about the future performance of the Chinese economy, are
having spillovers to other economies through trade channels and weaker commodity prices, as well as through diminishing confidence and increasing
volatility in financial markets. Manufacturing activity and trade remain weak globally, reflecting not only developments in China, but also subdued global
demand and investment more broadlynotably a decline in investment in extractive industries. In addition, the dramatic decline in imports in a number of
emerging market and developing economies in economic distress is also weighing heavily on global trade.

An escalation of ongoing geopolitical tensions in a number of regions affecting confidence and disrupting global trade, financial, and tourism flows.

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/daily_update_e/latest_trade_trends_e.pdf

http://www.joc.com/sites/default/files/u45421/Reports/Insights/Insights-JULY-2015v3.pdf

http://www.gtreview.com/news/global/five-trends-that-will-shape-the-future-of-trade/

http://fortune.com/2015/12/28/global-economy/

http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Issues/Business-environment/Trading-places--New-patterns-of-international-trade

http://www.biztimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Michael-Knetter-BizTimes-Media-Economic-Trends-2016.pdf

https://www.aem.org/news/march-2016/u-s-construction-equipment-exports-close-out-2015-down-19-percent/

http://ses.wsu.edu/extension/export_archives/ (check out the picture)

http://press.ihs.com/press-release/chris-geisler/us-bulk-chemical-exports-increase-2016-and-beyond-shale-gas-derived-prod