August 20, 2010

What BEA revisions mean for Fed

Summary
Topic of the week
• The Q2 real GDP data published this past July 30 came
The Q2 real GDP data published this past July 30 with a major revision of historical data by the Bureau of
came with a major revision of historical data by the Economic Analysis (BEA).
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The
• The economic analysts of the world were left slack-jawed
economic analysts of the world were slack-jawed
by the disappearance of $100 billion from U.S. GDP for
by the disappearance of $100 billion from U.S.
2010Q1. Consumption alone was revised down $134
GDP for 2010Q1. Consumption alone was revised
billion. As a result, instead of being in expansion
down $134 billion. As a result, instead of being in
territory, it turns out consumption is actually only
expansion territory, it turns out consumption is
midway up the recovery curve.
actually only midway up the recovery curve. As the
level of resource utilization in the economy as • The labour market must begin creating enough private-
been pegged back, this implicitly modifies the sector jobs to bring down the unemployment rate.
impact of past monetary easing by the Federal Otherwise, the Federal Reserve will not be able to
Reserve. On a more positive note, the level of tolerate the situation, as it would ultimately constitute a
labour productivity in the U.S. seems to have hit a disinflationary environment.
wall in the short term. For the first time since the
start of the recession, the composition of GDP • On a more positive note, the level of labour productivity
growth has been geared towards employment in the United States seems to have hit a wall in the short
rather than productivity. This said, if the term. For the first time since the start of the recession,
unemployment rate does not begin to trend down, the composition of GDP growth has been geared
the Fed will have no choice but to step in once towards employment rather than productivity.
again. • This said, as the level of resource utilization in the
economy has been pegged back, this implicitly modifies
the impact of past monetary easing by the Federal
• Economic indicators review (p. 6) Reserve.
• If the unemployment rate does not begin to trend down,
• Things to watch
Economic calendar and significant earnings
the Fed will have no choice but to step in once again.
announcements of the week ahead (p. 7)

• Economic tables (p. 8)

Unfortunate “step back”
The U.S. recovery forged ahead in 2010Q2, with real GDP
growing at an annualized 2.4%. However, in light of the
latest international trade statistics, this rate will be revised
down sharply. U.S. domestic demand, though, will
continue to accelerate markedly in excess of 4% at an
annual pace.

ECONOMY AND STRATEGY GROUP – 514.879.2529

Stéfane Marion, Chief Economist and Strategist
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National Bank Financial.
 WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER
1) Strong recovery in IME 3) U.S. consumption: from expansion to recovery?
Investment in machinery and equipment in real terms Bureau of Economic Analysis revisions* Real consumption
by component as of 2010Q1
Instead of being in
% (q/q, ann.) expansion…
25 9,400 $ billions
20 Revisions in billions 9,360
GDP components Before
15 of US$ 9,320

9,280
10
Consumption -134 9,240
5
Residential investment -23 9,200
0
Nonresidential structures -27 9,160
After
-5
Equipment and software 46 9,120
-10
Government -25 9,080
-15 …household spending
Net exports 38 9,040 is still almost 1% off
-20 pre-recession peak.
Inventories -31 9,000
-25
8,960
real GDP -100 06Q1 06Q3 07Q1 07Q3 08Q1 08Q3 09Q1 09Q3 10Q1
-30
-35 * Components do not add up to overall GDP because data are chain-weighted.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (BEA data via Global Insight)
NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (BEA data via Global Insight)

The strong recovery in investment in machinery and Following this revision, we lowered our growth projection
equipment (IME) is ongoing and, on a historical basis, is for the U.S. economy in 2010 from 3.5% to 3.0% on an
far different from past episodes. As for inventory annual average basis. Though the drop is not a colossal
rebuilding, the cycle does not seem over yet, as only $120 one, the implications for the Federal Reserve’s scenario
billion of the $600-billion cumulative inventory reduction turn out to be far more tangible, as we will see.
has been restored. Even if we take into account the much What, then, has Fed’s impact been?
lower level of activity in the auto sector, there should still
be room for a positive contribution to GDP in the second The data revisions have forced us to question part of the
half of the year. impact that the Fed’s accommodating monetary policy has
had on the economy. As we already knew, when a
2) Is inventory rebuilding cycle over? housing bubble bursts, the Fed’s purchase on the situation
Change in real private inventories (National Accounts)
is nil in the early going. However, this time around, even
120
$ billions +$120B with real rates at floor level, the housing sector as a
100 so far
80 percentage of the economy has not managed to bounce
60
40
back as it did in previous episodes.
20
0 4) Fed has no purchase on housing sector
-20 Real Fed Funds rate and ratio of residential investment to GDP
-40
-60
10 P.P. % of GDP 7.6
-80
9 7.2
-100 Real Fed Funds rate (L)
8 6.8
-120
7 6.4
-140 Cumulative -$603B at annual
rate during recession
6 6.0
-160
5 5.6
-180
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 4 5.2
3 4.8
NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight) 2 4.4
1 4.0
0 3.6
This said, the Q2 real GDP data published this past July -1 3.2
-2 2.8
30 came with a major revision of historical data by the -3 Residential investment 2.4
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Now you see it, now -4
-5
as % of GDP (R) 2.0
1.6
you don’t, and—presto--the economic analysts of the -6
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1.2

world were left slack-jawed by the disappearance of $100

billion from U.S. GDP for 2010Q1. Consumption alone
was revised down $134 billion. Besides seeking to predict The problem is all the worse in that the housing sector has
the future to the best of their abilities, economists, it would by far the greatest spill-over effects on economic activity
seem, must now also foresee the past! as a whole. While the U.S. economy lost 6.1% of its jobs
during the recession, those lost in construction totalled
Thus, after taking two steps forward, U.S. consumption 25.6%, that is, more than four times what residential
has just taken one step back. As a result, instead of being investment represented as a percentage of GDP before
in expansion territory, it turns out household spending is the bubble collapsed. This very particular context is the
actually only midway up the recovery curve. reason the Fed is not able via interest rates to influence
the allocation of resources for the housing sector in the
present recovery.

2
August 20, 2010
 WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER
5) When construction stalls In our opinion, though, the strong recovery in IME will
24-month change in construction employment as % of total employment soon come to an end as the level of decoupling between
1.0 % of total employment consumption and IME cannot persist much longer. Indeed,
0.8
0.6
businesses are not short-sighted and, knowing that
0.4 consumption growth will be soft in future, the economic
0.2
0.0
incentive to invest heavily above and beyond the
-0.2 replacement of capital stock depreciated during the
-0.4 recession will soon begin to wane.
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
Labour market: key factor ultimately
-1.2
-1.4 More than ever, our scenario projecting economic growth
-1.6
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
of about 3% in 2010H2 hinges ultimately on the U.S.
economy’s capacity to create jobs. The July labour review
NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (Global Insight and BEA data)
was clearly disappointing, with private-sector payroll
All and all, not only the Fed’s monetary policy has no employment climbing only 71K and pulling its 3-month
traction on the housing sector immediately following the moving average down from 150K to 50K in the process.
implosion of a real estate bubble but, with the latest BEA
revisions, the statistics show also that the Fed has had 7) United States: consumption supported by wage bill
Private-sector payrolls and 3-month moving average Private-sector wage bill and
less of an effect on the broader economy than initially personal consumption expenditures
thought. 300 Thousands (m/m) 10
% (q/q, ann.)

Private payrolls

Bigger cushion than expected

200 8 Consumption Wage bill
100
6
0

This said, the BEA revisions also bore some good news. -100 4

-200 3-month M.A.

The household savings rate went from about 4% before to -300
2

just over 6% after the revisions. This means that U.S. -400
0

-2
households raised their savings rate during the recession -500
…wage bill is growing. 2.3%
-600 Even if private payrolls -4
much more than first estimated. Hence, U.S. consumers -700 disappointed in July…
-6
are deleveraging at a much faster pace than initially -800
-900 -8
observed. This is because, though consumption continues 07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01 10M07 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

to progress slightly, disposable personal income (DPI) is NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via BLS)
on the rise as well, having grown at an annualized rate of
4.4% in Q2. Still, as both total hours worked and wages were up,
wage-bill growth was strong in July, making for an
6) United States: will consumption growth be sustained? excellent hand-off in Q3 of 2.3% on an annualized
Real personal disposable income and Real consumption
savings rate
quarterly basis.
For Q3 to register same
Real personal
10 disposable income
rose 4.4% in Q2…
5 % (q/q, ann.) consumption growth as
Q2, monthly growth of As Chart 8 shows, we can hardly see how consumption
Savings rate 0.15% is needed over
8 4 next three months… could decline with the wage bill expanding.
6
3
4
2
8) Jobs data suggest sustained consumption
2 4.4% Growth in nominal consumption, wage bill and employment
1
0 % (y/y)
6
0
-2 5
Nominal consumption
-4 -1 4
Hand-off in
…allowing savings rate
R.P.D.I. …exactly the mean Q3 = 0.5% 3
-6 to move in tandem with -2
growth since the
Wage bill
consumption.
beginning of the 2
-8 -3 recovery.
1
-10 -4 0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 06Q1 06Q3 07Q1 07Q3 08Q1 08Q3 09Q1 09Q3 10Q1 10Q3
-1
Employment

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (BEA data via Global Insight) -2
-3
-4
And the higher the savings rate, the less likely -5
consumption growth will flag when DPI rises. This is -6
07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01 10M07
reason for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to
cheer, as he is counting on household consumption NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via BLS and BEA)
expenditures (seeing how DPI is expected to rise) to
sustain the recovery. However, he is also counting on From the point of view of the Federal Reserve, however,
business IME to pursue its run. the analysis is different. The labour market must create

3
August 20, 2010
 WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER
enough private-sector employment not only to absorb new regard to inflation on account of a much longer recession
entries but also to bring those laid off during the recession than usual.
back to work. In other words, economic growth must be
Furthermore, inflation expectations are beginning to
sufficiently robust to lower the unemployment rate.
suggest that the Fed is losing credibility regarding its
9) Is private-sector employment growing fast enough? capacity to control inflation. Indeed, 5-year inflation swaps
Quarterly growth in private-sector employment have been sloping downward for several months despite
5 % (q/q) 0.3% in Q1
the fact that the economy is in recovery.
4 1.5% in Q2
3
11) U.S. headline inflation: expectations drifting lower
2
All-items CPI inflation, actual and as projected by swap market
1 3.6
0 %
3.2
-1
-2 2.8
-3 2.4
-4 0.4% so far
2.0
-5 in Q3
-6 1.6
-7 1.2
-8
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 0.8
5-year inflation swap
0.4
NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (Global Insight and BEA data)
0.0

Fed reaction likely if employment remains sluggish -0.4

-0.8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
When the unemployment rate fails to head back down in
an economy after rising, it is a sign that activity is not NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Bloomberg)

running at above its speed limit. This means that

economic growth is too weak to gradually close the output In the event of deflation, the Fed would have no choice but
gap (the measure of excess production capacity in the to resort to other quantitative monetary measures if the
economy). No central bank can tolerate such a situation U.S. labour market failed to pick up the pace of private-
over the medium term. Why? Because it constitutes a sector job creation. As Bernanke mentioned about two
disinflationary environment, that is, one where inflation is weeks ago, there is “a considerable way to go to achieve
steadily falling. a full recovery in our economy, and many Americans are
still grappling with unemployment, foreclosure, and lost
If the starting point for inflation is high, there is little savings".
chance of sinking into deflation (negative inflation rate).
However, if inflation is low to begin with, the odds of this Productivity: limit reached at last?
happening are much higher. This is the case right now in On a slightly more positive note for the labour market, we
the United States, where labour unit costs (a measure of need to point out that the level of labour productivity in the
wage inflation that takes into account productivity) are still United States seems to have hit a wall in the short term.
sliding and dragging core inflation with them (Chart 10). Indeed, it pulled back in Q2 despite an increase in real
10) Labour market still dragging down inflation GDP (Chart 12). This means that, for the first time since
Unit labour costs and core CPI the start of the recession, the composition of GDP growth
14 % (y/y) has been geared towards employment, not productivity.
12
12) United States: decline in productivity in Q2
10 Growth in labour productivity and private-sector employment

8 10 % (q/q, ann.)
Productivity
6
Core CPI 8

4 6

2 4

0 2

-2 0
Unit labour costs
-4 -2
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-4

-6
Jobs
Given that, according to the CPI, core inflation presently -8
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
stands at only 0.9%, that is, 110 basis points below the
price stability target, the Fed’s leeway has narrowed with NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight)

4
August 20, 2010
 WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER
As illustrated in Charts 12 and 13, in periods of economic 3.5% to 3%. For the Fed, however, the BEA revisions
recovery, productivity growth often explodes and prevents change matters considerably.
employment from advancing when GDP expands. Once
output is stretched to the limit with a given amount of 15) Fed very bullish about 2011
Annual real GDP growth
labour and capital, firms must then increase employment if
they wish to produce any more to meet growing demand. 2010 2011
We believe this point has now been reached in the United 4
%
3.8
States. 3.3
3
3
2.6
13) Productivity: has limit been reached?
Labour productivity index and private-sector employment 2

Index 116,000
1
112,000
1.15
108,000
1.10 Employment (L) 0
104,000
1.05 Federal Reserve NBFG Federal Reserve NBFG
1.00 100,000

0.95 96,000
0.90 NBFG Economy and Strategy and Federal Reserve
92,000
0.85
88,000
0.80
84,000
Whereas we projected growth in the vicinity of 3% by
0.75
Labour productivity (R)
0.70 80,000 year’s end and annual growth of a little more than 2% in
0.65 2011 in the United States, the Fed, instead, predicted
0.60
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 markedly more robust growth next year.
NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (BLS data via Global Insight)
In this context, it is easy enough to foresee that the Fed
We should not be disheartened by the drop in temporary- will have no choice but to step more heavily on the
help services jobs (a leading indicator of overall monetary gas pedal if private-sector employment does not
employment) in July, as it was probably just a one-time respond more vigorously to the economic recovery in the
blip rather than the beginning of a downward trend. short term.

14) Will job creation pick up? Conclusion

Jobs in temporary-help supply services vs. weekly ASA Staffing Index
Index
Before this past July 30, that is, prior to the BEA revisions,
98
Thousands
2,400 the economic data indicated that the United States was on
96
94
Weekly index (L)
2,350
2,300
the verge of expansion. The revisions changed the
92 2,250 economic picture in a flash. Above, all, they showed that
90 2,200
88 2,150
consumption was not in expansion territory yet but actually
86
84
2,100 only midway up the recovery curve.
2,050
82 Jobs (R)
80
2,000
1,950
As the level of resource utilization in the economy has
78
76 1,900 been pegged back, this ultimately modifies the impact of
74 1,850
72 1,800
past monetary easing by the Federal Reserve on the level
70
2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 2010M01 2010M07
1,750 of the output gap.

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via American Staffing Association)
This changes everything for the Federal Reserve.
Consequently, if the unemployment rate does not begin to
Indeed, according to the American Staffing Association, its trend down soon, the Fed will have no choice but to step
weekly index, which is a precursor of the monthly statistic, in once again.
has since veered up sharply. This, combined with the fact
that the level of productivity seems to have maxed out, the
August labour review might just surprise on the upside.
Here, too, though, we prefer to draw our conclusions on
the basis of quarterly employment and wage-bill data
before crying wolf and casting doubts about the U.S.
economic recovery. Yanick Desnoyers – Assistant Chief Economist
514 879-3140
2011: Washington wearing rose-tinted glasses – yanick.desnoyers@fbn.ca
Following the BEA revisions, we revised our growth
estimate for the United States in 2010 down slightly from

5
August 20, 2010
 WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER
ECONOMIC INDICATORS REVIEW
by Marco Lettieri

Canada – In July, headline CPI inflation vaulted to 1.8% Canada: core CPI at 1.6% in July
Total and core inflation (Bank of Canada)
year over year from 1.0% in June. Core CPI inflation,
instead, dipped to 1.6% from 1.7% the month before. On a 5.0 % (y/y)
4.5
monthly basis, headline CPI rose 0.6% (seasonally 4.0 Total (+1.8%)
adjusted) after decreasing 0.2% in June. The number was 3.5
3.0
propped up by changes of consumption taxes in Nova
2.5
Scotia, British Columbia and Ontario. Core inflation, for its 2.0

part, eked up 0.1% on the month, registering its weakest 3- 1.5

1.0
month run since 2003. 0.5
Bank of Canada CPIX (+1.6%)
0.0 CPIX target range
In June, manufacturing sales inched forward 0.1% after an -0.5
upwardly revised gain of 0.5% in April. Sales excluding -1.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
motor vehicles and parts increased 0.2%. However, the
monthly advance was limited to 9 of 21 industries. Durable
goods industries rose 0.6% while nondurable goods fell
0.4%. New orders decreased 0.3% while unfilled orders
Canada: manufacturing sales edged up 0.1% in June
progressed 1.3%. Inventories swelled 0.7%, pushing the Nominal and real manufacturing sales
inventory-to-sales ratio up slightly to 1.31. In volume terms, 8
% (m/m)

sales sprang 0.7% on the month. For 2010Q2, then,

6
Shaded for recession
manufacturing sales jumped 6.5% in real terms, adding to
4
economic growth in the quarter.
2
Still in June, wholesale sales dropped 0.3% after edging
0
down 0.1% one month earlier. The decline was widespread,
-2
with four of seven industries falling. The largest decrease
-4
occurred in machinery, equipment and supplies (-2.3%
m/m). In volume terms, sales sagged 0.1% on the month. -6
Real
-8
United States – In July, producer prices gained some
-10
Nominal

ground, rising 0.2% m/m after slipping 0.5% m/m in June. 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

This translated into a y/y increase of 4.2%, up from 2.8%

the previous month. Producer prices excluding food and
energy rolled ahead 0.3% m/m and 1.5% y/y, up from 1.1%
y/y the month before. United States: capacity utilization at 74.8% following
Again in July, industrial production climbed 1.0%, after production rebound
U.S. capacity utilization
notching down 0.1% in June. The increase was the result of %

solid performances in manufacturing (+1.1%) and mining 86

(+0.9%). Production of final goods was up 1.3%, with 84

business equipment leading the way (+1.8%). Capacity 82

utilization advanced as well, from 74.1% to 74.8%. 80

78
Still in July, housing starts bounced back 1.7% after
76
slumping 8.7% in June. Building permits flagged -3.1% to
74
565K, suggesting that residential construction activity will
72
remain soft next month.
70

The leading economic indicator crept up 0.1% in July, 68

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
partially reversing the 0.3% downslide in June. Shaded for U.S. recessions
NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight)

August 20, 2010 6

 WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER
THINGS TO WATCH – Canada & US
Economic releases & events Earnings announcements
Time Country Release Period Previous Consensus NBF Company Time Qtr Cons.
Estimate Estimat EPS
e

Monday
Aug 23

8:30 CA Retail Sales MoM JUN -0.20% 0.30% 0.4% Bank of Montreal Q3 2010 1.21
8:30 CA Retail Sales Less Autos MoM JUN -0.10% 0.10% 0.2% Aliment. Couche Tard Q1 2011 0.54
10:00 US Existing Home Sales JUL 5.37M 4.63M 5.1M Medtronic Inc 7:15 Q1 2011 0.82
Big Lots Inc Q2 2011 0.47

Tuesday
Aug 24

7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Aug-20 13.00% -- CIBC 6:00 Q3 2010 1.54
8:30 US Durable Goods Orders JUL -1.00% 2.80% JDS Uniphase Corp Aft-mkt Q4 2010 0.14
8:30 US Durables Ex Transportation JUL -0.60% 0.50%
10:00 US New Home Sales JUL 330K 333K 330K

Wednesday
Aug 25

8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Aug-21 500K 490K Royal Bank of Canada 6:00 Q3 2010 1.02
National Bank of Canada Q3 2010 1.52
Patterson Cos Inc Bef-mkt Q1 2011 0.44
Novell Inc Aft-mkt Q3 2010 0.07

Thursday
Aug 26

8:30 US GDP QoQ (Annualized) 2Q S 2.40% 1.40% Tiffany & Co Q2 2011 0.52
8:30 US Personal Consumption 2Q S 1.60% 1.60%
9:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence AUG F 69.6 70.0

Friday
Aug 27

Source: Bloomberg

August 20, 2010 8

 WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER
ECONOMIC TABLES
TABLE 1 - NORTH AMERICAN FINANCIAL INDICATORS
August 20, 2010
Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth Cumulated since
Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of year
Otherwise Indicated Period Level Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

UNITED STATES
MONETARY AGGREGATES ($Billions)
M1 * Jul 2010 1719 -0.2 0.9 0.3 1.4 4.6 4.2 6.3 15.4
M2 * Jul 2010 8611 0.0 0.4 1.0 3.6 1.7 2.0 1.8 9.2
CREDIT MEASURES
Consumer Credit Jun 2010 2419 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -3.8 -3.6 -3.5 -3.9 -0.9
Mortgage (Banks) * Jul 2010 3657 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -3.7 -4.2 -4.6 -3.5 5.4
Business * Jul 2010 1237 -0.3 -0.4 -1.0 -6.7 -14.0 -14.7 -18.2 0.4

CANADA
MONETARY AGGREGATES
M2+ gross May 2010 1327 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.8 1.9 3.6 4.3 13.2
Personal Deposits (Banks) (2) Jun 2010 659 0.7 0.6 0.6 4.6 2.4 3.7 4.3 14.9
CREDIT MEASURES
Consumer May 2010 461 0.3 0.8 0.4 8.0 9.4 9.0 9.3 7.6
Mortgages May 2010 988 1.0 0.4 0.6 7.6 7.0 7.4 7.0 8.4
Short - Term Business Loans * Jun 2010 324 0.2 0.4 -0.7 -3.8 -11.3 -11.5 -14.5 3.2
Business (S.T. + L.T.) * Jun 2010 1206 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.9 0.1 -0.1 3.2
Private (Consumer+Business) * May 2010 2655 0.4 0.4 0.3 4.9 4.3 4.4 4.0 5.9
Federal Debt Jul 2010 569 1.2 -1.5 1.8 7.9 6.4 7.1 11.2 27.4
INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATES
Reference Last 1 week 2 w. Average of last Thursdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.
Thursday day ago ago 13 w. 26 w. 52 w. ago ago ago

UNITED STATES
INTEREST RATES
Federal Funds Target Rate * 20 Aug 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Prime Rate * 20 Aug 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
3-month Treasury Bills * 20 Aug 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.11 0.17 0.11 0.17
2-year Bonds * 20 Aug 0.49 0.53 0.50 0.62 0.78 0.83 0.76 0.92 1.09
5-year Bonds * 20 Aug 1.45 1.45 1.50 1.77 2.08 2.21 2.03 2.45 2.55
10-year Bonds * 20 Aug 2.61 2.67 2.82 3.00 3.33 3.42 3.23 3.78 3.55
30-year Bonds * 20 Aug 3.66 3.86 3.99 4.01 4.28 4.33 4.10 4.71 4.36
Corporate High-yield (Lehman) * 20 Aug 8.41 8.51 8.24 8.85 8.72 9.24 9.33 9.20 11.55
Corporate Invest. Grade (Lehman) * 20 Aug 3.69 3.77 3.79 4.20 4.29 4.44 4.33 4.57 5.13
SPREADS
Corp. High-yield - Treas. 10y. * 20 Aug 5.80 5.84 5.42 5.85 5.38 5.81 6.10 5.42 8.00
Corp. Invest. grade - Treas. 10y. * 20 Aug 1.08 1.10 0.97 1.20 0.95 1.01 1.10 0.79 1.58
Treasuries 30y. - 3-m. T.B. * 20 Aug 3.51 3.71 3.84 3.87 4.13 4.22 3.93 4.60 4.19
EXCHANGE RATE
Major currencies, traded-weighted * 13 Aug 76.44 76.22 76.08 77.51 77.12 75.73 79.47 76.16 74.88

CANADA
INTEREST RATES
Prime Rate * 20 Aug 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.58 2.41 2.33 2.25 2.25 2.25
Target overnight rate * 20 Aug 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.58 0.41 0.33 0.25 0.25 0.25
30-day commercial paper * 20 Aug 0.89 0.85 0.85 0.73 0.57 0.46 0.45 0.35 0.34
3-month Treasury Bills * 20 Aug 0.63 0.68 0.68 0.58 0.43 0.32 0.37 0.17 0.21
1-year Treasury Bills * 20 Aug 1.00 1.10 1.15 1.12 1.05 0.81 1.11 0.62 0.57
5-year Bonds * 20 Aug 2.10 2.18 2.25 2.45 2.66 2.63 2.69 2.52 2.52
10-year Bonds * 20 Aug 2.93 2.98 3.08 3.19 3.37 3.40 3.40 3.47 3.40
30-year Bonds * 20 Aug 3.53 3.60 3.65 3.71 3.87 3.92 3.81 4.08 3.90
SPREADS
Prime - 30d. Commercial paper * 20 Aug 1.86 1.90 1.90 1.85 1.84 1.87 1.80 1.90 1.91
Long Term - Short Term * 20 Aug 2.90 2.92 2.97 3.13 3.43 3.60 3.44 3.91 3.69
CANADA UNITED STATES SPREADS
3-month T-Bills * 20 Aug 0.48 0.53 0.53 0.43 0.28 0.21 0.20 0.06 0.04
Long Term Bonds * 20 Aug -0.13 -0.26 -0.34 -0.30 -0.42 -0.42 -0.29 -0.63 -0.46
EXCHANGE RATE
US$ /CDN$ (GTIS) * 20 Aug 0.9544 0.9593 0.9731 0.9600 0.9679 0.9550 0.9441 0.9616 0.9249
Trade-weighted (1990=100) G-10 * 20 Aug 108.2 109.5 110.1 109.5 110.2 108.3 107.6 108.6 104.7

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) Since

Reference Past Prev. Month beginning of year
Thursday Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.
Dow Jones (U.S.) * 20 Aug 10213.6 -0.2 -2.1 3.8 1.4 -1.8 9.2 -1.1 9.0
S&P 500 (U.S.) * 20 Aug 1071.7 -1.1 -3.0 4.3 0.0 -3.4 6.4 -2.8 13.5
NASDAQ (U.S.) * 20 Aug 2179.8 -1.9 -3.8 4.8 -1.1 -2.9 9.6 -1.4 27.2
S&P/TSX (Can.) * 20 Aug 11722.1 0.8 -2.5 4.6 2.8 0.1 9.5 2.3 25.1

* Update (1) Commercial Banks (2) Not seasonnally adjusted

August 20, 2010 8

 WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER
ECONOMIC TABLES
TABLE 2 - UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDICATORS
August 20, 2010
Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated since
Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of year
Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

Index of 12 Leading Indicators * Jul 2010 0.1 -0.3 0.5 3.1 7.8 7.5 7.1 9.3 -2.7
Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) Jul 2010 50.4 54.3 62.7 55.8 54.0 53.4 47.4 54.3 40.3
I.S.M. Manufacturing Index (level) Jul 2010 55.5 56.2 59.7 57.1 58.0 56.3 49.1 58.0 40.8
- Non-manufacturing (level) Jul 2010 57.4 58.1 61.1 58.9 58.6 55.4 47.0 57.7 45.0

DOMESTIC DEMAND
Sales new autos & light trucks (000,000) Jul 2010 11.5 11.2 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.2 9.8
Retail Sales Jul 2010 0.4 -0.3 -1.0 -0.7 6.7 2.9 5.5 6.2 -9.5
- Motor vehicle Jul 2010 1.6 -1.3 0.0 8.7 8.5 5.4 8.5 9.5 -19.2
- Other Jul 2010 0.2 -0.1 -1.3 -2.6 6.3 2.4 4.9 5.5 -6.4
Consumer Spending: Total ($ current) Jun 2010 0.0 0.1 -0.1 1.7 3.3 1.7 3.1 3.4 -2.1
Total ($ constant) Jun 2010 0.1 0.2 -0.1 1.6 1.6 0.4 1.7 1.2 -2.0
Personal Income Jun 2010 0.0 0.3 0.4 4.1 3.7 0.3 2.6 2.3 -1.9
Personal Savings Rate (3) Jun 2010 6.4 6.3 6.0 6.2 5.9 5.7 6.7 5.9 6.3
New Orders Jun 2010 -1.2 -1.8 1.0 2.5 14.9 0.7 11.3 14.4 -24.2
- Non-Defence Capital Goods exc. Aircraft Jun 2010 0.2 4.7 -2.8 25.0 17.1 -0.1 15.6 16.0 -25.8
Unfilled Orders Jun 2010 0.0 0.3 0.4 2.7 -2.0 -8.6 -2.2 -5.3 -6.2
Business Inventories Jun 2010 0.3 0.2 0.4 5.0 2.7 -8.5 0.2 -4.0 -7.2
Inventories / Shipments Businesses Jun 2010 1.26 1.25 1.23 1.25 1.25 1.27 1.37 1.25 1.43
Manufacturers' Shipments Jun 2010 -0.8 -1.8 0.6 2.7 11.2 -0.9 9.1 10.4 -20.3
Manufacturers' Inventories Jun 2010 -0.1 -0.4 0.6 4.1 3.4 -7.9 0.5 -3.0 -7.8
Inventories / Shipments Manuf. Jun 2010 1.26 1.26 1.24 1.25 1.25 1.27 1.37 1.25 1.42
Housing Starts (000) (1) * Jul 2010 546 537 588 557 598 589 587 600 541
New Home Sales Jun 2010 23.6 -36.7 9.9 -20.7 -18.4 -5.2 -16.7 -3.0 -34.1
Existing Home Sales Jun 2010 -5.6 -1.6 7.7 42.5 -9.3 13.3 8.5 12.2 -3.7

PRODUCTION
Industrial Production * Jul 2010 1.0 -0.1 1.3 8.6 6.6 0.8 7.7 5.3 -12.1
- Consumer Goods * Jul 2010 1.1 -0.6 2.5 7.3 3.6 2.2 6.4 5.2 -8.6
- Hitech goods * Jul 2010 0.8 0.4 0.7 10.4 14.5 9.3 15.2 18.4 -18.4

EXTERNAL AND FISCAL BALANCES

Exports Jun 2010 -1.3 2.5 -0.7 12.4 19.4 2.6 17.7 17.7 -19.1
Imports Jun 2010 3.0 2.8 -0.4 23.5 24.7 -0.3 29.2 22.7 -28.8
Merch. Trade Balance ($ billions) Jun 2010 -49.9 -42.0 -40.3 -44.1 -41.2 -37.6 -27.1 -41.2 -28.5
Real merchandise trade balance Jun 2010 -54.1 -46.0 -44.2 -48.1 -45.3 -42.9 -36.8 -45.3 -40.6
Federal budget balance last 12 months (2) Jul 2010 -1317.8 -1333.5 -1359.4 -1333.1 -781.0 -934.5

INFLATION AND COSTS

Consumer Prices Jul 2010 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.7 0.8 1.3 1.2 2.0 -0.8
- Excluding Food and Energy Jul 2010 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.3 0.6 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.8
PCE Deflator exc. Food and Energy Jun 2010 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.5
Industrial Prices, Finished Goods * Jul 2010 0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -1.3 4.0 2.3 4.1 4.7 -3.6
Average Hourly Earnings (4) Jul 2010 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.1 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.3 3.3
Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate * Jul 2010 74.8 74.1 74.1 74.4 73.6 72.3 69.1 73.4 69.5
Median Price, Single-Family Homes (5) Jun 2010 5.6 1.2 1.8 30.3 -3.3 -4.2 1.3 0.4 -15.2

LABOUR MARKET
New Jobs (000) (6) Jul 2010 -131 -221 432 27 107 -4 -52 654 -4034
- Manufacturing (000) Jul 2010 36 13 39 29 27 -2 -22 183 -1083
- Services (000) Jul 2010 -164 -218 411 10 82 25 300 537 -2115
Average weekly hours (6) Jul 2010 0.4 -0.3 0.3 3.0 2.1 -3.1 1.2 -0.8 -7.0
Civilian Unemployment Rate (7) Jul 2010 9.5 9.5 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.4 9.7 8.8

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth Rates

QUARTERLY INDICATORS Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q2 2009 2009 2008 2007
GDP Chained 2005 dollars 2.4 3.7 5.0 1.6 -0.7 -4.9 -2.6 0.0 1.9
Consumption 1.6 1.9 0.9 2.0 -1.6 -0.5 -1.2 -0.3 2.4
Residential Construction 27.8 -12.3 -0.8 10.6 -19.7 -36.2 -22.9 -24.0 -18.7
Business Investment 17.0 7.8 -1.4 -1.7 -7.5 -35.2 -17.1 0.3 6.7
- Machinery and Equipment 21.9 20.5 14.6 4.2 0.2 -31.6 -15.3 -2.4 3.7
Government Spending 4.4 -1.6 -1.4 1.6 6.2 -3.0 1.6 2.8 1.3
Exports 10.4 11.4 24.4 12.2 -1.0 -27.8 -9.5 6.0 9.3
Imports 28.8 11.2 4.9 21.9 -10.6 -35.3 -13.8 -2.6 2.7
Change in Inventories (1) (2) 75.7 44.1 -36.7 -128.2 -161.8 -125.8 -113.1 -37.6 27.7
GDP Deflator 1.8 1.1 -0.3 0.7 0.3 1.0 0.9 2.2 2.9
Personal Disposable Income 4.4 1.7 0.0 -4.4 5.9 0.4 0.6 1.7 2.3
Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 2009 2008 2007
Labour Productivity (4) -0.9 3.9 6.0 7.0 8.4 3.4 3.5 1.0 1.6
Unit Labor Costs (4) 0.2 -3.7 -4.2 -3.3 0.6 -6.9 -1.6 2.2 2.5
Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007
Current Account (current $) -436.0 -403.6 -390.0 -337.8 -382.3 -590.6 -378.4 -668.9 -718.1
as a % of GDP -3.0 -2.8 -2.8 -2.4 -2.7 -4.2 -2.7 -4.7 -5.1
Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007
Corporate Profits (8) 48.9 42.7 47.2 14.7 71.2 -70.6 -0.4 -16.4 -6.1
as a % of GDP 10.8 9.9 9.2 8.4 8.1 7.0 8.9 8.8 8.9

* Update
(1) Annual Rate (5) Existing Homes Sold
(2) $ Billions (6) Non-Farm Payroll Survey
(3) Personal Savings as a % of Personal Disposable Income (7) Household Survey
(4) Nonfarm Business (8) Current $ and before taxes

August 20, 2010 9

 WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER
ECONOMIC TABLES
TABLE 3 - CANADIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
August 20, 2010
Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated since
Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of year
Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

Index of Leading Indicators (Stat. Can.) * Jul 2010 0.4 0.7 0.8 9.9 12.3 4.5 12.2 9.4 -5.4

DOMESTIC DEMAND
New motor vehicle sales (000) Jun 2010 130.1 127.0 126.7 128.0 130.3 129.4 1552.4 782.0 714.2
Retail Sales ($ current) May 2010 -0.2 -2.2 2.3 5.9 5.9 2.0 5.2 6.7 -5.3
- Motor vehicle and parts dealers May 2010 -0.5 -5.0 4.4 6.9 3.4 4.0 5.4 10.0 -14.1
- Other May 2010 -0.1 -1.4 1.8 5.7 6.6 1.5 5.2 5.9 -2.4
Retail Sales ($ constant) May 2010 0.4 -2.1 2.4 6.8 4.3 2.2 4.5 5.2 -3.7

Manufacturer's Shipments ($ current) * Jun 2010 0.1 0.5 0.1 6.2 10.5 -3.4 12.7 10.6 -20.0
New Orders * Jun 2010 -0.3 3.1 0.1 8.5 18.9 -3.8 11.0 16.0 -24.6
- Durables * Jun 2010 -0.1 7.7 -0.8 15.9 29.3 -6.3 15.7 24.0 -32.8
Unfilled Orders * Jun 2010 1.3 1.6 -0.6 4.6 -1.6 -19.1 -9.6 -16.6 4.1
Manufacturer's Inventories * Jun 2010 0.7 -0.7 0.0 -3.2 -4.3 -9.7 -6.1 -8.5 -1.7
Inventories / Shipments Ratio * Jun 2010 1.31 1.30 1.32 1.31 1.33 1.38 1.58 1.33 1.61
Manufacturer's Shipments ($ constant) * Jun 2010 0.7 0.4 -0.2 6.5 11.2 -1.0 13.4 10.0 -19.6

Housing Starts (000) (1) * Jul 2010 189.1 192.3 197.9 193.1 197.7 187.3 139.1 197.1 131.2
Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 -6.8 -8.6 -10.8 -58.7 -23.4 22.0 -24.9 11.3 -10.2
Number of personal bankrupties (2) Apr 2010 8.7 -9.6 -8.7 -67.5 -29.9 21.5 -15.7 -6.4 26.7
Number of commercial bankrupties (2) Apr 2010 -2.3 -3.8 -7.1 -56.1 -28.6 -13.3 -27.2 -23.2 -8.7

PRODUCTION
Real Domestic Product May 2010 0.1 0.0 0.6 4.1 5.0 -0.4 3.8 2.7 -3.2
- Manufacturing May 2010 0.1 -0.3 1.7 11.8 11.5 -5.0 8.6 5.0 -13.2
- Construction May 2010 -1.6 -0.2 0.8 1.4 7.9 -3.1 4.1 3.6 -6.8
Services May 2010 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 1.7 3.4 1.6 2.7 2.9 -0.7

EXTERNAL, FISCAL AND EXCHANGE BALANCES

Exports Jun 2010 -2.5 4.1 -0.6 4.8 16.6 -9.9 14.1 9.1 -25.0
Imports Jun 2010 -1.2 6.9 -2.5 17.0 13.4 -5.6 17.6 8.4 -14.3
- Capital Goods Jun 2010 0.5 7.0 0.2 32.3 5.9 -11.7 9.9 -4.4 -3.3
Merch. Trade Balance ($ millions) Jun 2010 -1,132 -695 224 -534 -73 -283 -104 -73 -269
Change in Official Reserves Jun 2010 -634 -816 174 -425 173 894 10,731 1,036 11,365
Level (US$): 55,393 Fiscal year
Fed. budget balance last 12 months ($ billions) May 2010 -43.9 -45.4 -47.0 -15.5 -4.4 -7.5

INFLATION AND COSTS

Consumer Prices * Jul 2010 0.5 -0.1 0.3 2.4 2.2 1.0 1.8 1.6 0.4
- Excluding Food and Energy * Jul 2010 0.3 -0.1 0.3 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.2
- Core inflation (4) * Jul 2010 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9
Average Hourly Earnings (2) Jul 2010 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -3.3 1.1 2.4 2.2 2.1 3.9
Price of New Housing icluding land Jun 2010 0.1 0.3 0.3 2.8 3.5 -0.2 3.3 1.9 -2.4
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 -0.2 -2.3 -1.3 -8.7 0.1 13.9 2.1 12.2 -3.3
Industrial Prices (1992=100) Jun 2010 -0.9 0.4 0.3 0.7 2.0 -2.6 0.2 -0.1 -1.7

LABOUR MARKET
Labour Force Jul 2010 0.0 0.3 0.2 3.1 1.7 1.0 1.7 1.2 0.8
Job creation (000) Jul 2010 -9.3 93.2 24.7 36.2 42.7 32.8 393.7 299.1 -283.6
- Manufacturing Jul 2010 28.5 -14.3 2.7 5.6 2.8 0.2 2.4 1.4 -177.8
- Services Jul 2010 -51.3 103.4 32.4 28.2 28.7 24.2 290.1 238.4 11.9
- Full Time Jul 2010 -139.0 49.0 67.2 -7.6 11.2 18.0 216.4 68.5 -347.1
- Part Time Jul 2010 129.7 44.2 -42.5 43.8 31.5 14.8 177.3 230.6 63.5
Unemployment Rate Jul 2010 8.0 7.9 8.1 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.6 8.1 8.2

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth Rates

QUARTERLY INDICATORS Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007
GDP Chained (2002) $ 6.1 4.9 0.9 -2.8 -7.0 -3.1 -2.5 0.5 2.2
Consumption 4.4 3.9 3.8 2.2 -1.1 -2.7 0.4 2.9 4.6
Business Investments 0.9 -9.8 1.1 -22.0 -41.6 -18.7 -19.9 3.4 3.3
-Machinery and Equipment 7.5 -8.1 17.6 -15.9 -41.3 -29.9 -20.3 -0.9 4.2
Residential Construction 23.6 26.3 9.1 5.9 -21.5 -24.5 -8.2 -3.7 2.8
Government Expenditures 1.9 6.9 6.6 1.5 3.1 4.6 3.5 3.9 2.7
Final Domestic Demand 4.7 5.0 5.3 -0.2 -7.6 -4.8 -1.8 2.8 4.0
Exports 12.0 13.8 9.5 -15.9 -31.5 -15.2 -14.2 -4.6 1.2
Imports 14.1 12.4 27.3 -1.9 -38.7 -24.9 -13.9 1.2 5.9
Change in Inventories (1) 8.2 -1.2 -1.6 -1.8 -6.9 5.6 -2.9 9.0 12.2
Real Disposible Income 1.1 0.1 0.7 2.0 -0.2 7.5 1.1 3.7 4.0
Personal savings Rate 2.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.2 4.7 4.5 3.6 2.8
GDP Price Deflator 4.4 4.4 3.8 1.0 -6.2 -12.9 -2.1 4.0 3.2
Corporate Profits (nominal) 39.1 36.8 44.5 -32.4 -55.3 -68.7 -32.3 8.0 1.9
as a % of GDP 10.8 10.2 9.6 8.9 9.8 11.5 9.6 13.6 13.1
Indust. Capacity Utilization Rate 74.2 71.3 68.6 68.1 70.2 75.5 69.5 77.9 82.4
Labour Productivity, Business Sector 3.1 4.7 -0.8 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.4 -0.9 0.0
Unit Labour Cost, Business Sector -1.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.6 4.0 4.7 2.3 4.0 3.5
Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007
Current Account (current $) (1) -31.3 -40.8 -55.1 -49.8 -28.4 -30.2 -43.5 6.9 12.8
as a % of GDP -2.0 -2.6 -3.6 -3.3 -1.9 -1.9 -2.8 0.5 0.8

* Update
(1) Annual Rate, $ billions (4) C.P.I. excluding the 8 most volatile components and the effect
(2) Not Seasonally Adjusted of indirect taxes
(3) Current and before taxes

August 20, 2010 10

 WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER
ECONOMIC TABLES
Economic and Strategy Team
TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
August 20, 2010
Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated since
Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of year
Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

QUEBEC
DOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE
Retail Sales May 2010 -1.8 -3.5 3.1 4.2 6.8 3.3 4.4 7.6 -3.2
Manufacturing Shipments * Jun 2010 -0.2 -0.4 0.9 1.4 4.9 -4.1 5.3 5.6 -15.2
Housing Starts (000) (2) Jul 2010 52.9 54.5 50.1 52.5 52.1 50.4 47.4 52.7 41.6
Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 -1.6 -4.4 -7.1 -49.9 -12.4 16.1 -12.9 12.4 -8.1
W ages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.1 -0.6 0.9 1.1 3.8 1.8 3.0 2.9 1.6
Value of merchandise exports (1) Jun 2010 3.0 -2.5 -3.1 13.6 5.4 -11.9 11.4 -0.6 -16.0
Number of personal bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 11.1 2.2 -15.6 -64.5 -26.1 14.1 -17.2 -10.3 19.2
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 10.0 -8.4 -14.9 -46.6 -23.8 -18.0 -26.7 -27.6 3.8
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (1) * Jul 2010 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.6 1.4 0.3
Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jul 2010 -0.7 -1.7 0.4 -4.6 0.3 2.3 1.1 1.8 4.4
Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Jun 2010 0.1 0.4 0.0 3.7 3.4 2.7 3.0 2.8 3.7
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 1.1 -3.8 -0.5 -3.5 3.0 8.7 4.6 8.9 1.6
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jul 2010 -20.9 30.4 -5.3 1.4 9.0 8.0 95.6 60.4 -53.1
Unemployment rate Jul 2010 8.2 7.8 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.2 8.9 8.0 8.5
Participation rate Jul 2010 65.5 65.7 65.4 65.5 65.3 65.2 65.2 65.2 65.4

ONTARIO
DOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE
Retail Sales May 2010 0.1 -1.4 3.4 11.7 5.2 1.9 5.8 6.1 -4.6
Manufacturing Shipments * Jun 2010 -0.2 1.3 -0.4 6.4 11.2 -1.0 20.0 15.6 -22.9
Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jul 2010 53.2 56.1 66.3 58.5 62.5 60.1 40.0 61.8 44.6
Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 -8.0 -10.3 -13.0 -66.5 -15.7 24.7 -23.5 16.2 -9.2
W ages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.5 0.1 0.9 5.1 4.7 -0.3 2.7 2.4 -0.7
Value of merchandise exports (1) Jun 2010 4.7 3.5 -10.3 31.6 25.3 -5.0 29.8 15.5 -25.9
Number of personal bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 10.3 -24.5 -4.6 -75.0 -35.1 20.8 -20.8 -9.6 28.2
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 -9.1 -3.4 0.7 -70.0 -26.8 -7.0 -22.6 -18.9 -18.0
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (1) * Jul 2010 0.9 -0.2 0.4 3.6 3.2 1.2 2.9 2.0 0.6
Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jul 2010 0.0 -0.3 -1.1 -4.5 1.1 1.8 1.7 1.7 3.2
Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Jun 2010 0.3 0.5 0.2 2.5 3.5 1.0 3.3 2.1 0.2
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 0.1 -2.6 -0.1 -12.5 6.7 13.9 4.6 13.9 -1.4
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jul 2010 -15.0 60.3 17.7 21.0 20.2 14.3 171.8 151.2 -141.4
Unemployment rate Jul 2010 8.5 8.3 8.9 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.2 8.8 9.0
Participation rate Jul 2010 67.5 67.6 67.5 67.5 67.3 67.3 67.2 67.3 67.4

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR

DOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE
Retail Sales May 2010 -1.7 -3.8 3.3 6.4 4.0 4.2 2.1 6.6 0.4
Manufacturing Shipments * Jun 2010 -1.6 1.5 40.8 476.1 -18.6 -8.3 6.7 9.9 -41.9
Housing Starts (000) (2) Jul 2010 3.3 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.7 4.2 3.5 5.0 3.2
Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 -10.2 -6.5 -3.6 -41.8 -1.1 8.9 -5.9 14.6 -11.2
W ages and Salaries Mar 2010 -0.2 1.2 0.6 4.9 3.3 4.0 -1.6 2.7 6.3
Value of merchandise exports (1) Jun 2010 9.1 17.8 33.2 359.2 -16.5 -27.7 24.0 0.9 -41.0
Number of personal bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 1.6 23.0 -19.1 -53.0 -33.7 17.9 -16.3 9.6 -1.1
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 #DIV/0! -100.0 100.0 -87.0 -21.0 21.4 100.0 -22.2 -50.0
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (1) * Jul 2010 0.3 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.0 1.4 2.1 2.3 0.4
Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jul 2010 -2.0 1.2 -1.7 -8.9 4.9 5.3 7.6 6.2 3.8
Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Jun 2010 0.4 0.2 1.1 5.6 7.5 6.0 6.1 5.7 17.4
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 1.6 -1.6 0.3 5.2 17.1 13.0 15.5 15.0 19.4
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jul 2010 1.0 -8.1 7.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 7.1 2.6 -3.8
Unemployment Jul 2010 15.0 14.7 13.8 14.5 14.8 15.2 17.0 14.8 15.3
Participation rate Jul 2010 59.9 59.4 61.0 60.1 60.0 59.8 59.7 59.9 59.1

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

DOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE
Retail Sales May 2010 -2.2 -1.7 2.8 5.8 8.8 2.8 5.5 7.7 -2.3
Manufacturing Shipments * Jun 2010 7.1 -6.6 -3.8 -3.9 -17.1 -7.4 1.7 -10.9 -3.7
Housing Starts (000) (2) Jul 2010 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7
Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 -18.4 6.0 -4.3 -7.8 31.7 1.6 -11.5 8.0 4.2
W ages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.4 0.6 0.4 2.1 -0.2 4.0 1.1 2.4 4.6
Value of merchandise exports (1) Jun 2010 5.9 39.3 -18.8 129.6 -30.5 -11.7 -11.2 -16.3 4.5
Number of personal bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 -23.7 -25.5 21.4 -45.0 -0.8 15.6 -34.1 6.0 38.5
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 100.0 0.0 -66.7 -93.8 -36.0 92.9 0.0 40.0 25.0
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (1) * Jul 2010 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.4 0.9 2.1 -0.4
Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jul 2010 -0.8 -2.7 -1.7 -11.6 8.2 2.5 5.3 3.0 6.3
Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Jun 2010 -0.3 0.3 -0.3 -2.4 -2.5 0.0 -1.8 -1.1 0.6
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 4.9 -8.2 -21.4 -44.9 -0.7 5.1 -5.7 3.1 4.5
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jul 2010 0.8 0.3 -1.9 -0.3 0.0 0.2 2.5 0.6 0.4
Unemployment Jul 2010 10.8 12.3 10.7 11.3 10.7 11.1 12.2 10.6 12.3
Participation rate Jul 2010 68.6 69.1 67.8 68.5 68.7 68.5 67.9 68.6 67.8

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 WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER
ECONOMIC TABLES

Economic and Strategy Team

TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A4)
August 20, 2010
Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated since
Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of year
Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

NOVA SCOTIA
DOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE
Retail Sales May 2010 -1.7 -2.0 2.2 8.2 5.7 4.4 4.2 7.9 -2.6
Manufacturing Shipments * Jun 2010 -0.5 3.1 0.7 19.7 7.9 -6.2 4.4 4.3 -15.4
Housing Starts (000) (2) Jul 2010 5.8 3.2 6.0 5.0 4.9 4.4 3.4 4.6 2.9
Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 -13.5 2.2 -8.3 -38.6 -8.8 8.1 -16.1 7.1 -18.1
W ages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.7 1.3 0.1 6.9 3.6 2.1 3.8 3.4 2.0
Value of merchandise exports (1) Jun 2010 1.6 9.7 0.5 90.3 -7.0 -16.2 1.4 -3.3 -22.6
Number of personal bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 10.5 -4.1 -7.8 -62.5 -18.9 15.1 7.7 6.0 19.0
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 -25.0 -33.3 -29.4 -35.4 -58.1 -7.3 -45.5 13.2 -39.7
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (1) * Jul 2010 1.1 -0.4 -0.1 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.7 2.1 -0.5
Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jul 2010 -0.9 -0.6 -1.2 -6.8 5.4 3.6 2.9 4.0 6.2
Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Jun 2010 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.7
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 1.7 -1.4 -2.1 -16.5 3.2 6.8 2.5 8.1 1.7
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jul 2010 0.5 0.4 3.5 1.5 1.9 0.6 7.7 6.2 -2.7
Unemployment Jul 2010 9.3 8.8 8.7 8.9 8.9 9.2 9.2 9.0 9.1
Participation rate Jul 2010 65.1 64.7 64.6 64.8 64.4 64.5 64.2 64.4 64.5

NEW BRUNSWICK
DOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE
Retail Sales May 2010 1.2 -2.9 0.6 -0.2 4.7 4.1 5.5 7.4 -0.8
Manufacturing Shipments * Jun 2010 0.2 -5.6 11.7 28.1 45.8 5.7 14.9 24.8 -28.6
Housing Starts (000) (2) Jul 2010 6.1 4.7 4.4 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.8 3.4
Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 -3.5 9.8 -14.6 -46.5 -16.3 0.5 -18.9 0.8 -12.2
W ages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.8 0.8 0.0 4.4 3.8 2.6 3.4 3.3 2.6
Value of merchandise exports (1) Jun 2010 -18.4 22.3 0.3 1.5 69.5 5.0 1.0 31.4 -27.9
Number of personal bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 0.0 -0.5 -8.3 -66.0 -28.9 23.7 5.8 7.4 20.3
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 -25.0 166.7 -72.7 -91.0 -14.8 -42.2 50.0 -28.2 -36.1
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (1) * Jul 2010 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 2.1 1.9 1.3 2.5 -0.1
Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jul 2010 -0.4 0.2 -1.4 -6.8 -0.7 2.9 0.5 1.7 5.0
Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Jun 2010 1.3 0.6 0.0 3.6 1.2 1.8 2.6 1.0 3.9
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 1.6 0.3 0.5 7.9 3.1 5.9 5.5 4.0 4.5
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jul 2010 1.4 -4.4 -1.3 -1.4 -0.3 -0.2 -2.1 -2.4 -3.0
Unemployment Jul 2010 9.0 9.3 8.8 9.0 8.9 8.8 9.1 9.0 9.0
Participation rate Jul 2010 63.8 63.9 64.4 64.0 64.2 64.4 64.6 64.3 64.7

MANITOBA
DOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE
Retail Sales May 2010 0.6 -2.2 1.0 2.1 5.5 4.0 6.3 7.3 -3.3
Manufacturing Shipments * Jun 2010 4.8 -0.9 -4.0 1.5 -1.4 -11.8 -3.8 -7.3 -5.9
Housing Starts (000) (2) Jul 2010 9.7 8.1 5.0 7.6 6.6 5.6 4.2 6.3 3.7
Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 0.0 -5.1 -6.8 -21.5 -3.9 5.0 -5.0 3.9 -9.6
W ages and Salaries Mar 2010 1.2 0.4 -0.2 3.2 2.7 1.8 2.8 2.1 2.8
Value of merchandise exports (1) Jun 2010 -0.6 0.7 -6.2 22.9 2.6 -18.1 0.0 -11.3 -12.5
Number of personal bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 12.1 -23.5 1.7 -49.4 -38.9 15.8 -15.1 -5.6 11.0
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 28.6 16.7 20.0 720.2 -19.5 -17.8 350.0 12.5 -20.0
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (1) * Jul 2010 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 -0.3 0.8 0.9
Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jul 2010 -0.2 1.0 0.4 2.5 1.7 3.0 5.2 2.8 3.2
Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Jun 2010 0.5 0.2 0.4 6.5 6.7 2.8 4.9 4.2 3.7
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 -0.7 3.0 -0.5 4.2 8.6 10.5 7.7 10.9 3.0
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jul 2010 -0.1 0.3 1.4 0.5 1.4 1.1 12.7 16.6 -1.0
Unemployment Jul 2010 5.6 5.3 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.0
Participation rate Jul 2010 70.1 70.1 70.4 69.9 69.9 69.7 69.6 69.8 69.4

SASKATCHEWAN
DOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE
Retail Sales May 2010 -0.3 -2.1 1.6 0.5 -0.2 1.6 1.4 3.4 -1.6
Manufacturing Shipments * Jun 2010 -1.4 -2.2 2.8 16.3 14.4 -3.7 6.0 7.7 -8.2
Housing Starts (000) (2) Jul 2010 5.3 6.2 4.4 5.3 5.1 5.2 3.3 5.3 2.9
Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 0.2 -5.0 -0.5 -28.9 -22.6 15.2 -19.9 3.3 -10.9
W ages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.7 0.2 0.1 5.4 5.8 3.4 4.3 4.1 5.6
Value of merchandise exports (1) Jun 2010 -5.7 0.7 -10.8 -26.8 8.6 -16.5 -3.9 5.4 -21.6
Number of personal bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 2.2 7.1 5.9 -35.4 -21.4 21.4 -9.8 5.3 13.1
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 -25.0 -7.7 85.7 117.4 -60.0 13.5 -35.7 -14.6 -11.1
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (1) * Jul 2010 -0.1 0.0 0.1 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.4 1.1 1.4
Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jul 2010 -1.4 0.8 0.1 -0.8 2.1 5.4 4.3 5.1 6.2
Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Jun 2010 -0.2 1.6 0.9 10.7 5.9 0.5 5.3 3.0 -0.8
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 1.4 2.9 -4.9 -2.1 0.8 5.1 8.0 5.1 2.0
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jul 2010 -2.1 2.1 -1.8 -0.6 1.0 0.6 7.3 3.9 -1.0
Unemployment Jul 2010 5.1 5.5 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.7
Participation rate Jul 2010 70.0 70.6 70.1 70.2 70.2 70.0 69.9 70.1 70.3

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 WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER
ECONOMIC TABLES

Economic and Strategy Team

TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A5)
August 20, 2010
Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated since
Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of year
Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

ALBERTA
DOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE
Retail Sales May 2010 0.0 -2.3 0.5 0.5 7.3 -1.9 4.4 5.4 -10.5
Manufacturing Shipments * Jun 2010 -0.3 0.3 -2.4 -3.8 17.4 -9.2 10.4 7.4 -20.6
Housing Starts (000) (2) Jul 2010 29.2 27.0 29.7 28.6 29.7 28.0 19.4 29.0 15.3
Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 -1.6 -11.8 -9.1 -53.8 -31.4 7.2 -34.7 -4.2 -10.3
Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.9 0.8 1.2 9.8 3.0 -0.3 2.6 1.5 3.4
Value of merchandise exports (1) Jun 2010 2.2 6.5 -5.9 6.8 21.0 -15.0 17.7 20.0 -37.1
Number of personal bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 -6.9 7.9 -7.6 -64.8 -31.0 49.5 -9.8 1.5 65.5
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 11.1 -15.6 0.0 -37.3 -1.0 -17.2 -31.8 -23.4 23.4
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (1) * Jul 2010 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.1 0.6 1.5 1.2 -0.1
Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jul 2010 0.9 -0.2 0.0 0.6 -1.6 2.4 2.8 1.6 4.9
Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Jun 2010 -0.1 0.1 0.3 1.8 2.1 -4.3 1.9 -0.2 -9.8
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 1.9 -2.9 -1.2 -4.8 0.6 4.7 1.7 6.3 -7.6
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jul 2010 8.8 5.7 14.7 9.7 3.5 2.0 24.0 13.3 -30.7
Unemployment Jul 2010 6.3 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.9 6.9 7.2 6.9 6.2
Participation rate Jul 2010 73.1 73.3 73.2 73.2 73.2 73.5 74.5 73.2 74.6

BRITISH COLUMBIA
DOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE
Retail Sales May 2010 1.5 -1.4 1.1 2.8 6.9 2.6 7.5 8.6 -8.5
Manufacturing Shipments * Jun 2010 2.1 2.1 -3.9 5.1 13.7 -4.9 11.8 8.3 -19.7
Housing Starts (000) (2) Jul 2010 22.8 27.0 26.0 25.3 26.6 24.0 13.0 26.7 13.0
Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 -14.1 -10.4 -12.3 -59.8 -46.9 44.7 -38.0 13.7 -13.3
Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.4 1.0 -0.5 4.3 4.0 -1.0 2.5 1.8 -1.2
Value of merchandise exports (1) Jun 2010 4.1 5.5 4.5 106.0 22.4 -11.0 29.8 11.1 -21.4
Number of personal bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 16.7 -2.7 -10.0 -55.1 -21.5 33.8 -8.9 -1.5 40.8
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Apr 2010 -35.7 40.0 5.3 -43.1 -54.7 -21.9 -62.5 -41.0 -9.4
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (1) * Jul 2010 1.1 -0.2 0.4 3.1 1.9 0.3 2.0 0.9 0.3
Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jul 2010 -1.5 -0.3 0.7 1.2 3.3 2.9 3.3 2.9 3.8
Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Jun 2010 -0.2 0.3 0.3 3.8 5.7 -1.5 5.4 3.0 -7.2
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jul 2010 1.3 1.7 -1.8 6.1 3.9 14.4 8.2 13.7 -6.6
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jul 2010 16.3 6.4 -10.1 4.2 5.8 5.6 67.1 46.7 -47.2
Unemployment Jul 2010 7.5 7.8 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.4
Participation rate Jul 2010 66.1 66.0 65.8 66.0 66.0 66.1 65.7 66.1 66.0

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 WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER
ECONOMIC TABLES

Economic and Strategy Team

TABLE 5 - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
August 20, 2010
Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated since
Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of year
Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

OECD leading index Jun 2010 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.7 6.1 5.4 6.7 9.1 -10.0

JAPAN
Consumer confidence - percenbtage (1) Jul 2010 43.3 43.5 42.8 43.2 42.1 40.8 39.4 41.6 32.4
Retail Sales (1) Jun 2010 -0.4 -3.0 -7.3 -4.0 -0.5 1.2 3.3 3.7 -3.4
Industrial Production, Volume Index Jun 2010 -1.1 0.1 1.3 6.2 22.9 3.0 17.3 24.0 -29.6
Exports Jun 2010 -1.8 -1.7 1.5 -4.2 40.0 1.6 26.3 37.6 -42.5
Imports Jun 2010 -4.4 1.6 4.9 11.1 42.0 -9.3 27.8 24.0 -37.8
Merchandise trade bal. (Billions of ¥) Jun 2010 456 320 504 427 526 501 407 3,156 -181
Current account (Billions of ¥) Jun 2010 1,362 905 1,380 1,216 1,383 1,324 1,611 8,300 5,697
Inflation (CPI) Jun 2010 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.9 -0.2 -1.6 -0.7 -1.0 -0.6
Job offers to applicants ratio Jun 2010 0.52 0.50 0.48 0.50 0.49 0.46 0.45 0.49 0.53
Unemployment Rate Jun 2010 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.1 4.8
Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 2009 2008 2007
Gross Domestic Product (Constant Yen) * 0.4 4.4 4.1 -1.0 10.4 -16.6 -5.2 -1.2 2.3

Euro-zone
Volume Retail Sales * Jun 2010 0.0 0.4 -1.0 -0.5 1.0 -0.7 0.7 0.5 -3.2
Industrial Production May 2010 0.9 0.8 1.8 12.7 8.2 -4.9 9.4 6.6 -18.7
Exports Jun 2010 5.2 1.8 -2.9 28.2 27.4 -0.6 26.8 16.8 -21.0
Imports Jun 2010 4.3 4.0 -2.8 39.7 33.7 -2.8 30.9 17.1 -22.0
Merch. Trade Bal. (Millions of euros) Jun 2010 -1,634 -2,710 -15 -1,453 -885 797 1,171 -847 500
Inflation (CPI) * Jul 2010 -0.3 0.0 0.1 2.5 2.2 0.9 1.7 1.4 0.4
Unemployment Rate Jun 2010 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.5 10.0 9.1
Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 2009 2008 2007
Gross Domestic Product (Constant Euro) 3.9 0.8 0.5 1.6 -0.3 -9.8 -4.1 0.5 2.7

UNITED KINGDOM
Consumer Confidence (Diffusion index) Jul 2010 -17 -11 -10 -13 -9 -9 -16 -8 -24
Retail Sales * Jul 2010 1.2 0.7 0.8 7.1 -0.1 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.4
Industrial Production Jun 2010 -0.4 0.7 -0.7 4.2 3.6 -4.0 1.3 0.8 -11.8
Exports (1) Jun 2010 4.3 0.1 0.1 22.0 18.9 3.4 23.6 15.7 -12.1
Imports (1) Jun 2010 1.0 2.1 0.1 21.5 19.2 2.0 21.1 13.9 -12.4
Merchandise Trade Bal. (Millions of £) Jun 2010 -7,401 -8,028 -7,435 -7,621 -7,627 -7,062 -7,285 -44,718 -40,982
Inflation (CPI harmonized) (1) * Jul 2010 -0.3 0.2 0.2 3.2 3.7 2.7 3.1 3.3 2.4
Industrial Prices (1) Jul 2010 0.1 -0.3 0.1 5.1 6.3 3.6 5.0 4.9 1.0
House prices Jul 2010 0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -1.8 1.8 2.4 4.8 5.4 -15.1
Unemployment Rate May 2010 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.9 7.3

Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 2009 2008 2007

Gross Domestic Product (Constant £) 4.5 1.3 1.7 -1.0 -2.8 -1.0 -4.9 -0.1 2.7

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATES

Reference Current Prev. Week Average of last Thurdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.
Thursday Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. ago ago ago

JAPAN
Prime Rate * 20-Aug-10 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
3-month Financing Bill Rate * 20-Aug-10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.12 0.14
- Spread with U.S. * 20-Aug-10 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 0.01 -0.06 0.01 -0.03
Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 20-Aug-10 0.93 0.98 1.05 1.12 1.22 1.27 1.24 1.32 1.32
- Spread with U.S. * 20-Aug-10 -1.69 -1.69 -1.77 -1.89 -2.12 -2.16 -1.99 -2.45 -2.24
Exchange Rate (¥/U.S.$) * 20-Aug-10 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

Euro Zone
3-month Treasury Bills * 20-Aug-10 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.75 0.67 0.67 0.64 0.61 0.83
- Spread with U.S. * 20-Aug-10 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.60 0.52 0.56 0.47 0.50 0.66
Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 20-Aug-10 3.32 2.43 2.62 2.67 2.86 3.05 2.72 3.19 3.29
- Spread with U.S. * 20-Aug-10 0.71 -0.24 -0.20 -0.33 -0.48 -0.37 -0.51 -0.59 -0.26
Exchange Rate (U.S.$/Euro) * 20-Aug-10 1.27 1.28 1.33 1.26 1.29 1.37 1.25 1.36 1.43
(Yen/Euro) * 20-Aug-10 108.54 109.78 113.14 111.45 116.77 123.97 112.08 124.17 134.19
(Euro / £ ) * 20-Aug-10 1.22 1.22 1.20 1.20 1.17 1.14 1.15 1.14 1.16

UNITED KINGDOM
Prime Rate * 20-Aug-10 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50
3-month Treasury Bills (tender) * 20-Aug-10 0.49 0.50 0.50 0.49 0.50 0.47 0.50 0.49 0.38
- Spread with U.S. * 20-Aug-10 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.33 0.38 0.21
Yield on 30-year Gov't Bonds * 20-Aug-10 4.01 4.15 4.16 4.20 4.36 4.32 4.18 4.68 4.19
- Spread with U.S. * 20-Aug-10 0.35 0.29 0.17 0.19 0.08 -0.02 0.08 -0.02 -0.17
Exchange Rate (U.S.$ / £ ) * 20-Aug-10 1.55 1.56 1.59 1.51 1.51 1.56 1.44 1.55 1.65

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) Since

Past Prev. Month beginning of year
Reference Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

MSCI Eafe * Aug 2010 193 2.2 2.5 -0.4 4.4 -1.0 2.9 -6.1 17.3

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 WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER
ECONOMIC TABLES

TABLE 6 - COMMODITY PRICES

August 20, 2010
Spot Price Weekly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%)
Last Prev. Week For the Last Last
Aug 20 Aug 13 Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. Year

CRB Index
Total 492.4 495.3 -0.6 -0.9 0.2 37.8 5.1 19.1 413.5

Energy 581.9 600.2 -3.0 -5.5 -0.2 17.6 -16.3 2.9 565.3
Grain 360.1 366.0 -1.6 -0.1 5.1 120.2 41.4 26.2 285.4
Industrials 477.1 476.5 0.1 1.0 1.8 22.6 2.6 25.6 379.9
Livestock & Meat 328.1 324.3 1.2 1.0 -1.8 8.5 9.5 32.0 248.7
Precious Metals 930.2 931.7 -0.2 -1.3 1.3 10.0 11.5 25.2 742.7

PRECIOUS METALS
Gold ($/ounce) 1230.50 1215.00 1.3 1.7 2.3 16.9 23.6 30.7 941.50
(AM fixing London)
Platinum ($/ounce) 1517.0 1538.0 -1.4 -1.9 0.8 6.3 1.5 23.1 1232.0
(AM fixing London)
Silver ($/ounce) 18.0 18.1 -0.7 -2.2 2.8 3.6 22.0 26.4 14.2
(Handy & Harman)
Palladium ($/ounce troy) 483.0 475.0 1.7 -3.3 0.8 76.6 23.3 75.6 275.0

OTHER METALS (LME)

Aluminum ($/tonne) 2,038 2,101 -3.0 -3.7 0.9 2.6 -6.3 7.6 1,894
Copper ($/tonne) 7,237 7,132 1.5 -2.9 1.0 26.5 -4.5 15.4 6,271
Zinc ($/tonne) 2,030 2,018 0.6 -3.9 5.1 40.3 -24.9 12.3 1,807
Nickel ($/tonne) 21,490 21,208 1.3 -3.8 4.5 4.0 8.3 11.3 19,300
Lead ($/tonne) 2,031 2,031 0.0 -4.9 3.9 68.1 -24.5 10.4 1,840
Uranium (Neuxco spot $/lb U308) 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! ####### $$"ER", E

OTHER COMMODITIES
Oil ($/barrel) 1-month future 73.61 75.57 -2.6 -6.5 2.4 44.7 -15.0 0.2 73.45
(West Texas Intermediate)
Corn (¢/bushel) 389.0 379.0 2.6 2.2 1.6 65.4 30.5 23.7 314.5
(Illinois #2)
Soy beans (¢/bushel) 1015.0 1062.0 -4.4 -0.5 1.9 47.2 19.4 -3.2 1049.0
(Illinois #1)
Pork (¢/lb) 150.0 141.0 6.4 -6.0 11.1 144.1 184.1 172.7 55.0
Beef (Cattle feeder index) 113.2 112.8 0.4 -0.2 -0.3 12.1 24.1 12.8 100.4
(CME)
Woodpulp NBSK 1020 1020 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.4 44.0 47.8 690
Metric ton delivered in U.S.
Natural Gas (mmbtu) 4.18 4.36 -4.2 -5.2 -4.4 5.4 -32.7 48.6 2.81
Henry Hub future NYMEX
Lumber 2X4 224 210 6.7 -3.7 0.0 -43.2 -40.3 11.4 201

All prices are in US dollars

August 20, 2010 15