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Sniping To Manipulate Closing Prices in Call Auctions: Evidence From The Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Sniping To Manipulate Closing Prices in Call Auctions: Evidence From The Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Sniping To Manipulate Closing Prices in Call Auctions: Evidence From The Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Wing Suen
University of Hong Kong
(wsuen@econ.hku.hk)
and
Kam-Ming Wan
University of Hong Kong
(kmwan@econ.hku.hk)
*
We are grateful to Matthias Buehlmaier, Y.K. Fu, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, Harold Zhang, and seminar
participants at the University of Hong Kong for their comments. We are also thankful to Yangbo (Darcy) Song for
his excellent research assistance. All errors remain ours.
I. Introduction
Call auctions are the dominant mechanism to determine closing prices of equities around the
world. Eight of the top ten stock market operators in the world currently adopt this mechanism.
The only exceptions are the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (henceforth HKEx) and Shanghai
Stock Exchange. Closing call auctions are also prevalent among top Asian stock exchanges,
including Tokyo Stock Exchange, Australian Stock Exchange, Korea Exchange, and Singapore
Stock Exchange. They are popular because extant studies (e.g., Pagano and Schwartz, 2003;
Schwartz, 2001; Cao, Ghysels, and Hatheway, 2000; Biais, Hillion, and Spatt, 1999; Madhavan,
1992) find that they improve price discovery and reduce price volatility. Other studies provide
anecdotal evidences to suggest that closing call auctions reduce price manipulation. Specifically,
they (e.g., Comerton-Forde, Lau, and McInish (2007) for the Singapore Stock Exchange; Hillion
and Souminen (2004) for the Madrid Stock Exchange; and Felixson and Pelli (1999) for the
Helsinki Stock Exchange) find that the closing price is subject to manipulation when it is
The HKEx actually had adopted a closing auction mechanism for a brief period from
May 26, 2008 to March 22, 2009. In sharp contrast to the extant findings, the auction procedure
advantage of this episode to examine the effects of closing auctions on price discovery and on
price manipulation. Consistent with conventional wisdom, we find that the closing auction
mechanism does, on average, improve the informativeness of the closing price. Yet, we also find
that a plain-vanilla closing call auction as the one adopted by the HKEx is susceptible to price
manipulation, particularly in the form of unexpectedly large (buy or sell) orders in the last few
seconds. We refer to such actions that cause abnormal patterns in prices and trading volume
A case in point is the plunge in HSBC shares by 24.1 percent on March 9, 2009. The
plunge is the biggest one-day drop since the Black Monday in 1987, and its impact is
exceptionally large because HSBC is the largest HKEx-listed company with a worldwide market
capitalization of about US$200 billion by the end of 2009. On that day, HSBC shares dropped
from $43.5 at the previous close to $37.7 by the end of the continuous trading session at 4:00
p.m.1 The indicative stock price of HSBC fluctuated within a tight range of $37$38 during the
closing auction session (henceforth CAS) from 4:00 p.m. to 4:10 p.m. Just two seconds before
the closing auction was concluded, a trader sniped with an exceptionally large market sell order.2
HSBC shares immediately plunged from $37 and closed at $33, a drop of over ten percent in
merely two seconds. Coincidentally, when the market opened the next day, HSBC shares
bounced back to $37.25. This opening price was very close to the indicative market clearing
price three seconds before the close in the previous day. Panel (a) of Figure 1 presents the
indicative equilibrium price (IEP) and the primary buy and sell queue of HSBC shares during
that closing auction session. The sniping order was remarkably large, at over 4.7 million shares.
That order alone was more than fifty percent of the then prevailing indicative equilibrium
We believe that the sniping incident on March 9, 2009 was well-planned because trading
of HSBC shares was also unusual during the CAS on the previous trading day (March 6, 2009).
Panel (b) of Figure 1 shows the trading activities during the CAS on that day. First, note that a
small but unusually aggressive limit sell order of $33 was submitted between 4:01 p.m. and
1
Stock prices are quoted in the Hong Kong dollar while values on transactions and firm market capitalization are
quoted in the U.S. dollar for ease of comparison. The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the U.S. dollar at an exchange
rate of US$1:HK$7.8.
2
See the news report in Hong Kong Economic Times on March 10, 2009.
4:02p.m., causing the IEP to fall immediately to $33. Coincidentally, this IEP at $33 is identical
to the closing price of the following trading day. This limit sell order was aggressive because it
was submitted at a deep discount from the last transacted price of $43.15 at 4:00 p.m. Second,
this order was subsequently canceled even though that seller could have sold the shares at a price
significantly higher than $33. Third, an exceptionally large sell order of above 5.8 million shares
was canceled just one second prior to the cancellation deadline at 4:08p.m, which can be
considered as another form of sniping. It appears that some traders attempted to manipulate the
stock price of HSBC on March 6, 2009 but was not successful. Alternatively, they might have
Last-minute bidding (or sniping) is prevalent at eBay auctions and the practice is
extensively documented and studied by, among others, Roth and Ockenfels (2002; 2006), Bajari
and Hortacsu (2003), and Ely and Hossain (2009). Closing call auctions are different from eBay
and many on-line auctions in that both the buy side and the sell side submit bids and in that
multiple units are traded. The objectives of sniping in these markets are not the same. In eBay
auctions, sniping is a strategy to acquire an object at a low price. In financial markets, the
objective is to influence the market price directly, perhaps with a view to making money in
find evidence that sniping does occur in financial markets, especially when the call auction
Our paper adds to the literature in several ways. First, in contrast to previous findings,
we find that a plain vanilla closing call auction is fragile and vulnerable to price manipulation.
3
There is anecdotal evidence for the practice of similar manipulative order placing activities during the CAS period.
The Hong Kong Securities and Future Commission had successfully prosecuted two individuals for such activities.
Details on these two cases are available from
http://www.sfc.hk/sfcPressRelease/EN/sfcOpenDocServlet?docno=09PR120 and
http://www.sfc.hk/sfcPressRelease/EN/sfcOpenDocServlet?docno=09PR122.
such manipulations can hinder price discovery, which is a core quality of market viability (see
OHara, 2001; 2007) because it influences the risk of holding stocks. The fragility of the CAS is
partly due to the fact that allowable price changes at the auction procedure can be very
largefrom +900% to 89% of the prevailing market price. In contrast, the allowable price
change during the regular trading session is only 24 spreads, which is approximately 2.4% of
the prevailing market price. The possibility of large and sudden price movement during the CAS
increases the potential profits that manipulators can gain from sniping and reduces the scope for
other traders to react. The experience of closing price manipulation in the HKEx highlights the
Second, many studies (e.g., Comerton-Forde and Putnins, 2010; Aggarwal and Wu,
2006) use prosecuted manipulation cases and find that manipulations happen typically in small
and illiquid stocks. The evidence presented in this paper suggests that closing price
manipulations can occur even for the most liquid stocks in one of the largest worldwide stock
exchanges when sufficient safeguards against manipulations are not in place. Our results also
shed light on the limitation of using prosecuted cases to draw inferences on the extent of price
manipulation. This is because the number of prosecuted cases is directly related to the capability
Third, our findings are less susceptible to possible biases from confounding factors that
are correlated with time trend. Existing studies of other markets typically rely on a before-and-
after comparison, which may be difficult to disentangle from unobserved time trend. The unique
experience of the HKEx to adopt and then abandon closing auctions allows us to use both pre-
and post-CAS periods as two separate benchmarks to examine their effects. Unless one posits an
unobserved time trend that coincidentally reverts itself after the CAS period, we are more
confident that the effects so identified during the CAS period are attributable to the trading
Fourth, we use market micro data at very fine time intervals (10-second and 10-minute
intervals) to measure price movements and trading activities. Focusing on such fine details
allows us to isolate the effects of market structure from the effects of broader market movements.
More importantly, in addition to measuring the effects of closing auctions, we also study
a motive to manipulate closing prices at the auctions. In particular, we link the performance of
the closing auctions in the equities market to the market for a derivative productcallable bull
and bear contracts (CBBCs). These contracts are similar to knock-out (barrier) options in that
they would be expired should the price of the underlying stock reach a pre-specified level. Yet,
unlike traditional knock-out options, CBBCs are typically not worthless on the expiration date.
The residual value of an expired CBBC can be a function of the closing price of the underlying
stock on the expiration day. Consistent with our expectations, we find that sniping is more likely
to occur on days when CBBCs are expired, particularly during the CAS period. We also
compare the informativeness of closing prices of the closing auction mechanism with that of the
random closing mechanism. Overall, we find that closing prices are more informative under the
closing auction mechanism, but they are less informative under the closing auction system on
The HKEx is the seventh largest stock exchange ranked by domestic market capitalization and
the largest stock exchange ranked by money raised through initial public offerings in 2009 and
2010.4 Regular trading at the HKEx is conducted in two continuous trading sessions: (i) a
morning session from 10:00 a.m. to 12:30 p.m., and (ii) an afternoon session from 2:30 p.m. to
4:00 p.m. The following describes the closing procedures adopted by the HKEx during the CAS
During a period of approximately ten months since May 26, 2008, the HKEx adopted call
auctions to determine closing prices. This mechanism was suspended indefinitely on March 23,
2009, soon after the plunge in HSBC shares incident. Under the closing auction mechanism,
only at-auction orders and at-auction limit orders are allowed. An at-auction order is an order
with a specified quantity but no specified price while an at-auction limit order is an order with a
specified price and quantity. At-auction orders are similar to regular market orders while at-
auction limit orders are to regular limit orders.5 The only exception is that the price specified by
the at-auction limit order is bounded by the 9-times restriction rule: the upper price limit of
submitted orders is 9 times (+900%) the nominal price at 4:00 p.m. and the lower price limit of
submitted orders is 1/9 times (89%) the price at 4:00 p.m.6 This cap is rarely a binding
constraint as the allowable price movement is huge. In contrast, limit orders submitted during
the continuous trading session are restricted to much narrower bands. Specifically, limit orders
must be inputted within 24 spreads of the prevailing nominal price (henceforth 24-spread rule).
One spread is identical to one tick and the tick size is a function of the stock price. For a $50
4
Statistics on the ranking of world stock exchanges are available from the World Federation of Exchanges.
Information on IPO ranking was reported in Hong Kong Seeking IPO 3-Peat in 2011, Wall Street Journal, January
2, 2011.
5
For the sake of simplicity, we refer at-auction orders as market orders whereas at-auction limit orders as limit
orders throughout this paper.
6
See Section 5.2.7 of the Market Operations and Trading of the HKEx at
http://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/global/faq/securities%20market.htm.
stock, 24 spreads correspond to $1.2 or 2.4%. The allowable price range of limit orders is
immensely wider during the closing auction session than during the continuous trading session.
The closing auction session is conducted between 4:00 p.m. and 4:10 p.m. It can be
divided into two periods: (i) order input period (4:004:08 p.m.); and (ii) pre-order matching
period (4:084:10 p.m.). Traders can submit either market or limit orders during the order input
period. However, only market orders are permitted during the pre-order matching period. Any
unfilled limit orders during the continuous trading session will be automatically carried forward
to the order input period of the CAS. Throughout the CAS, an IEP and IEV are displayed to the
market participants. The IEP is the price obtained from a single-price call auction which yields
the maximum number of shares transacted (i.e., IEV).7 After 4:10 p.m., orders are paired up and
transactions are executed at the IEP at 4:10 p.m., and this will be the closing price of the day.8
Appendix 1 describes the algorithm to compute IEP and IEV during the closing auction session.
Orders cancellation and amendment are allowed during the order input period but prohibited
during the pre-order matching period. In addition, short selling is prohibited during the CAS.
The random closing procedure is used to determine the closing price during the pre- and post-
CAS periods. The closing price of a stock is determined by taking the median of five nominal
prices in the last minute of the continuous trading session.9 The system takes five snapshots on
7
The IEP must be a price between the highest limit bid and the lowest limit ask that maximizes the matched shares.
If there is a tie in IEP, three tie-breaker rules would apply. The first rule selects the price with the lowest order
imbalance. If this fails to break the tie, the second rule would apply and pick the price which is closest to the
nominal price at 4:00 p.m. Should these two rules also fail to break the tie, the third rule would apply and pick the
highest price as the IEP.
8
If there is no IEP available after the CAS (i.e., there is no match at all), then the median price of five nominal price
snapshots taken in the last minute of the continuous trading session is used as the closing price. Snapshots are taken
at 15-second intervals during 3:594:00 p.m.
9
Nominal prices are not necessarily the last transacted prices. Specifically, the nominal price is the last transacted
price only when the last transacted price falls within the current quoted bid-ask spread. Otherwise, the nominal
the nominal prices at 15-second intervals starting from 3:59 p.m. The median of these prices will
then be taken as the closing price of the day. Choosing the median of five snapshot nominal
prices ensures that the closing price will not be biased by one single trade. Note that the 24-
spread rule applies to orders submitted during this closing procedure because it is part of the
period during CAS (5/26/20083/22/2009). This study focuses on the constituent stocks of the
Hang Seng Index, because they are the largest and most liquid stocks on the HKEx. Our sample
companies are large in size and comparable to S&P500 companies in terms of market
capitalization. The average market capitalization of our sample companies was US$34.5 billion
with a range from US$2.9 billion (COSCO Pacific) to US$200.5 billion (HSBC) in 2009, while
that of S&P500 companies was US$18.67 billion with a range from US$0.81 billion to
US$329.73 billion in 2009.10 Our sample stocks constitute 60.9 percent of the market
capitalization of all stocks listed on the HKEx at the end of 2009.11 Because their closing prices
are used to price many derivative products, investigating these stocks allows us to study the
There were 47 constituent stocks in the Hang Seng Index at various points of the sample
period. We exclude eight stocks because they have less than 60 daily observations in either one
price refers to the bid price if the bid price is greater than the last transacted price and the ask price if the ask price is
smaller than the last transacted price.
10
Descriptive statistics on S&P 500 companies are obtain from the Standard and Poors website at
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_500_Factsheet.pdf.
11
See HKEx Fact Book 2009.
of the three periods. We construct our dataset from four data files published by the HKEx.
Specifically, data on intra-day bid and ask quotes, indicative equilibrium prices, indicative
equilibrium volume, and primary buy and sell queues are collected from the Bid and Ask Record
files; data on transaction prices and volume are from the Trade Record files; data on day-high
and day-low are from the Day-end Closing Data files; and data on the expiration dates of CBBCs
are from various years of HKEx Fact Book and the HKEx website.12 Transaction prices and
volume are recorded to the nearest second. Data on bid-ask quotes, IEP, IEV, and queues are
recorded to the nearest one-thousandth of a second since January 1, 2008, but only at 30-second
IV. Sniping
Roth and Ockenfels (2002) find that last-minute bidding (or sniping) is prevalent in eBay and
Amazon auctions. They propose a variety of strategic and behavioral reasons for sniping. For
example, rational informed bidders can use sniping to protect their private information. We
propose a novel explanation for sniping that is particularly relevant to stock markets: uninformed
traders use sniping to influence closing prices. We argue that sniping is a rational strategy for
more certain and more likely to be achieved under the closing call auction mechanism than under
the random closing mechanism. This is because closing prices are concluded at a fixed deadline
under the closing call mechanism whilst they are randomly chosen at five snapshots under the
random closing procedure. The fixed deadline allows manipulators to surprise the market by
submitting an exceptionally large market order in the final seconds. Sniping is a rational strategy
because it gives no time for other traders to react, particularly to nullify the price impact from
12
The HKEx website provides data on expired CBBCs for the recent 12 months at
http://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/cbbc/download/dnfile.asp.
10
sniping. Manipulators can profit from sniping when closing prices of equities are used as
settlement prices for derivatives, e.g., CBBCs, stock warrants, stock index futures, and stock
options (see Kumar and Seppi, 1992; Stoll and Whaley, 1991; Chamberlain, Cheung, and Kwan,
1989). More generally, because closing prices are recorded and widely used as a summary
different interpretations. Conceptually, we are most interested in sudden changes in prices just
before the call auction closes, because manipulators can profit from sniping only when this
strategy can successfully influence closing prices. However, we also examine sniping in trade
volume (sudden surge in at-auction orders right before the auction ends) and sniping in both
price and trade volume for completeness. We reason that sniping in trade volume is a necessary
but not sufficient condition to influence the closing price. This is because a successful sniping
attack requires the manipulator to submit a surprising large order in final seconds, allowing no
time for the market to react. Yet, sniping attempts in trade volume may fail to influence closing
prices as manipulators can miscalculate. One possibility for this is that the impact of a sniping
order can be nullified or substantially weakened by an unexpectedly large incoming order on the
opposite side. Imagine that two manipulators simultaneously submit a large but opposing-
direction order in the final seconds. These opposing-direction orders nullify the intended price
effect of each other. Such manipulative attempts will not be reflected in a sudden change in
We measure sniping as follows: snipe(x) is a binary variable and takes the value of
one if the absolute change in x for a stock during the final ten seconds before the close is strictly
11
greater than the absolute change in x for the stock in any of the remaining five 10-second
intervals of the closing minute, where x is either p (price), v (trade volume), or pv (both price
and trade volume).13 We compute the absolute change in x by dividing the closing minute into
six 10-second intervals. The closing minute is taken from 4:094:10 p.m. during the closing
auction session of the CAS period, and from 3:594:00 p.m. during the continuous trading
session of the pre- and post-CAS periods. We use the beginning and ending values of x to
compute the 10-second absolute change in x of each interval. We measure price by IEP and
trade volume by IEV in the CAS period. Conversely, we measure price by actual transaction
price and trade volume by actual transaction volume in the pre- and post-CAS periods. The
variable snipe(pv) is equal to one if both snipe(p) and snipe(v) are equal to one.
Table 1 presents descriptive statistics on the sniping variables we have constructed. Our
results indicate that sniping in trade volume as well as sniping in both price and trade volume are
significantly more prevalent during the CAS period than during the non-CAS periods.
Specifically, the likelihood of sniping in trade volume is 6.1%, 25.0%, and 2.6% in the pre-CAS,
CAS, and post-CAS periods, respectively. This means that, in a quarter of our firm-day
observations in the CAS period, the most intense trading activities of the closing minute occur
during the last 10-second interval. Similarly, the likelihood of sniping in both price and trade
volume is 1.1%, 7.4%, and 0.6% in the pre-CAS, CAS, and post-CAS periods, respectively.
However, evidence for sniping in price during the CAS period is less overwhelming.
Specifically, the likelihood of sniping in price is 9.95%, 11.8%, and 11.9% in the pre-CAS, CAS,
13
Our results are qualitatively similar but weaker in statistical significance if we either shorten the sniping interval
to five seconds or lengthen it to fifteen seconds.
12
Table 2 presents estimates from a probit regression model on the relation between sniping
in price and sniping in trade volume after controlling for firm fixed-effects. Consistent with the
descriptive statistics in Table 1, our results in column (1) of Table 2 indicate that the likelihood
of sniping in price in the CAS period is significantly more prevalent than that in the pre-CAS
period but statistically indistinguishable from that in the post-CAS period. In the next
regression, we examine the impact of sniping in trade volume on the likelihood of sniping in
price by adding a dummy variable for sniping in trade volume and interacting this variable with a
dummy variable for the pre-CAS period and a dummy variable for the post-CAS period. Our
results in column (2) show that sniping in trade volume increases the likelihood of a sudden
change in price in the final ten seconds. More importantly, the effect of snipe(v) on
snipe(p) is significantly stronger (at the 5% level) during the CAS period than during the
non-CAS periods.
Similarly, the results in column (3) show that sniping in trade volume is substantially
more likely in the CAS period than in the non-CAS periods, and that these differences are
statistically significant at the 5% level. Column (4) shows that sniping in price is positively
associated with sniping in trade volume, and that the relationship between the two is stronger
Price manipulation at the close can cause a large change in stock price during the closing
period. Thus, we use a large change in stock price during the closing period as a proxy for price
manipulation and examine if it is related to sniping. We first identify incidents of a large price
change during the closing period. We then examine if those incidents are caused by sniping,
particularly during the CAS period. Specifically, we say that a stock experiences a large price
13
change during the closing period if the absolute price change during this period is greater than
one percent of the last transacted price before the closing period. The closing period is
4:004:10 p.m. in the CAS period and 3:594:00 p.m. in the non-CAS periods. Table 3 presents
estimates from probit regression models on the above relationship, controlling for the firm fixed-
effects. We find that large price changes in the closing period are significantly associated with
sniping. More importantly, this relation is stronger during the CAS period than during the non-
To successfully influence the closing price, a trader should submit a single large order in
the final seconds. His intentions could be leaked out if he attempted to break up his orders,
which could attract order flows from the opposing direction to nullify the intended price impact.
Further, breaking orders up in the final seconds entails an execution risk as late orders may miss
the fixed deadline and therefore be unfilled. In sum, we expect that trade volume should be more
concentrated in the CAS period than in the non-CAS period as sniping should be more frequently
Unfortunately, data on order arrivals and the limit order book are unavailable to us. To
investigate whether trade volume is more concentrated in the CAS period, we use transaction
records to measure concentration ratio of trade volume. Specifically, we use the difference-in-
differences methodology to examine the concentration ratio of trade volume measured during the
closing period relative to that during a benchmark period. The closing period is 4:004:10 p.m.
in the CAS period and 3:594:00 p.m. in the non-CAS periods. Our benchmark periods are the
10-minute interval of 3:504:00 p.m. in the CAS period and the 1-minute interval of 3:583:59
14
p.m. in the non-CAS periods. The concentration ratio of trade volume is measured by the
number of shares traded by the largest transaction to the total trade volume during the period.
Table 4 presents descriptive statistics on the concentration ratio of trade volume in each
of the three periods. During the CAS period, the mean concentration ratio is 2.6 times larger
than that during the benchmark period. In contrast, the mean concentration ratios during the
closing period and the benchmark period are roughly the same when call auctions were not in
use.
The ultimate yardstick for a successful sniping attack is the ability to influence the
closing price. We first examine the absolute price change in the final ten seconds before the
close. In Table 5, we see that the absolute price change in the final 10-second interval is
significantly smaller in the CAS period (0.07%) than those in the pre-CAS (0.12%) and post-
CAS (0.14%) periods. Our findings are consistent with extant studies in that call auctions
consolidate order flows and reduce price volatility. While it is not shown here, the average trade
volume during the closing period is 1.8, 4.2, 1.6 million shares in the pre-CAS, CAS, and post-
CAS periods, respectively. This suggests that order flows are substantially thicker under the
form of sniping. Although the mean absolute change in price in the last ten seconds is smaller in
the CAS period, we find that this variable exhibits a greater variability in the tails under the
closing auction system. Conditional on price changes being large and economically significant
(larger than one or two percent), the average absolute price change is significantly larger in the
15
CAS period than those in the non-CAS periods. The average absolute price change in the final
ten seconds conditional on it being greater than two percent is 2.29%, 3.69%, and 2.33% in the
pre-CAS, CAS, and post-CAS periods, respectively. The differences in means between the CAS
period and each of the non-CAS period are large and have economic and statistical significance.
The closing price can be used for a variety of purposes, including the pricing of derivative
products and providing a yardstick for the accounting of mutual fund performance. Because
closing prices are widely reported in the media, manipulating closing prices can also be used as a
tool to influence market sentiments. Since we do not know the long and short positions of
individual investors, it is generally difficult to uncover the identities of traders who may have an
incentive to manipulate closing prices. In this section, we take advantage of information about
one particular derivative productcallable bull and bear contractsto explore one possible
financial motive for manipulating closing prices. We emphasize that this is not the only possible
motive for price manipulation, but it is one that we can have sufficient information to study.
manipulators can profit from the CBBC market. The residual value of a CBBC can depend on
the closing price of the underlying stock on the expiration date. Specifically, the residual value
of an expired bull CBBC is determined by the settlement price less the strike price (a pre-
specified price) if this amount is positive, and is zero otherwise. The settlement price is the
minimum price of the underlying stock from the expiration time to the next trading session of the
day (typically till the market closes). Similarly, for a bear CBBC, the residual value is
determined by the difference between the strike price and the maximum price of the underlying
16
stock from the expiration time to the next trading session of the day. In addition, the incentive
and profit from manipulating closing prices can be large as the allowable price movement during
Table 6 presents descriptive statistics for expired CBBCs and the incidence of day-high
and day-low at the close in each period. A day-high event is said to occur if the closing price is
the highest price of the trading day, and a day-low event occurs when the closing price is the
lowest price of the day. The number of expired CBBCs is quite small in the pre-CAS period
because they are a new derivative product. Indeed, CBBCs were introduced by the HKEx in
2006, but trading of CBBCs has increased rapidly since 2008. The turnover value of CBBCs
was US$9.2 billion in 2007, reaching US$133.96 in 2008 and US$215.99 billion in 2009.15
Table 6 shows that for our sample stocks the number of expired CBBCs is 55, 830, and 2719 in
the pre-CAS, CAS, and post-CAS periods, respectively. Overall, expired bull and bear CBBCs
are roughly comparable in number. Yet, the likelihood of either day-high or day-low at the close
is substantially higher in the CAS period than in the non-CAS periods. For example, the
probability of day-high at the close is 7.2% in the CAS period, and is about 3.7% in the pre-CAS
CAS and post-CAS periods into a single period, and call it the non-CAS period. This is
necessary as the number of expired CBBCs is quite small in the pre-CAS period, particularly for
expired bear contracts. We use a probit regression model with firm fixed-effects to examine the
impact of the number of expired CBBCs on the likelihood of sniping. Table 7 presents
14
Note that while the closing price can be used as the settlement price for a CBBC, indicative equilibrium prices
(IEP) computed during the CAS cannot be used as the settlement price.
15
See HKEx Fact Book 2009.
17
estimates for our three measures of sniping, snipe(p), snipe(v), and snipe(pv). The
variable ncbbc measures the number of expired CBBC for a stock on a given day. Consistent
with our expectations, the estimate for ncbbc in column (1) is positive and statistically
significant at the 5% level. This suggests that sniping in price is particularly more likely on days
when the number of expired CBBCs is large during the CAS period. Yet, this relation is
substantially weaker during the non-CAS period. The estimate for ncbbcnonCAS is negative
and statistically significant at the 5% level. However, results in columns (2) and (3) suggest that
the number of expired CBBCs is not significantly correlated with sniping in trade volume or
In addition, we divide expired CBBCs according to their types (bull or bear) to examine
how they affect the likelihood of observing day-high or day-low at the close. Bull CBBCs are
similar to call options and expire when the underlying stock price is lower than a pre-specified
price, i.e., the call price. The residual value of an expired bull CBBC is computed by the
positive amount of the minimum price of the underlying stock less the strike price during the
period when the CBBC expires and up to the next trading session of the day. In other words,
closing prices could be used to determine the residual value of bull contracts if they are the
minimum price of the underlying stocks. We hypothesize that the probability of day-low at the
close should be particularly large on days when the number of expired bull CBBCs is large.
Conversely, the probability of day-high events should be higher when the number of expired
bear contracts is large. In addition, this relation should be stronger in the CAS period than in the
non-CAS period.
18
Table 8 presents estimates from the probit regression models of the effects of expired bull
and expired bear CBBCs on the probability of day-high at the close, the probability of day-low at
the close, and returns in the final 10-second interval. Congruent with our expectations, the
probability of day-low (day-high) at the close is significantly higher on days when the number of
expired bull (bear) CBBCs is large. The estimates for nbull and nbear are positive and
statistically significant at the 1% level. In addition, this relation is noticeably stronger in the
CAS period than in the non-CAS period. The estimates for nbullnonCAS and
nbearnonCAS are negative and statistically significant at the 1% level. Column (3) of Table
8 also shows that the number of expired bull CBBCs is significantly correlated with the stock
returns in the final ten seconds and that this relation is stronger in the CAS period than in the
non-CAS period. These two estimates are marginally significant at the 10% level. The stock
return in the last ten seconds is 0.07% lower on the day when one bull CBBC is expired during
the CAS period while it is almost 0% (= 0.0716% 0.0722%) in the non-CAS period.
VI. Price Informativeness: Closing Call Auctions vs. Random Closing Mechanism
This section investigates the impact of the introduction of closing call auctions on price
market model to measure informativeness of closing prices (see, for example, Roll, 1988). We
reason that if closing prices fully reflect all publicly available information under the call auction
mechanism, we would expect that a greater co-movement between an individual stock return and
the market return in the period when closing call auctions are used than that in the period when
19
We use two measures of stock returns. The first one is the close-to-close return measured
over a one-day interval from the closing price in the previous day to the closing price in the
current day. The second one is the last-ten-minute return measured over the final ten-minute
interval before the close. Specifically, it is measured by the last transacted price during the
continuous trading session at 4:00 p.m. to the closing price at 4:10 p.m. of the current day during
the CAS period. During the non-CAS period, it is measured by the last transacted price at 3:50
p.m. to the last transacted price at 4:00 p.m. of the current day. The close-to-close return is the
conventional measure for price informativeness and is commonly used to examine precision of
closing prices (e.g., Comerton-Forde, Lau, and McInish, 2007; Pagano and Schwartz, 2003).
The last-ten-minute return captures the extent of price informativeness during the closing period
in the CAS period. The latter measure should be less vulnerable to biases from confounding
factors because it measures co-movement between an individual stock return and the market
return within a narrow window of time when closing prices are determined. As randomness in
setting closing prices can reduce the goodness-of-fit, we use last transacted prices of the day
instead of closing prices to compute the two returns in the pre-CAS and post-CAS periods. This
adjustment is warranted because using closing prices to measure returns in these periods can bias
our results in favor of finding that closing prices are more informative during the CAS period.16
Table 9 uses a firm fixed-effects model to examine the impact of adopting call auctions
on price informativeness. Results using close-to-close returns and last-ten-minute returns are
reported in columns (1) and (2), respectively. Consistent with previous studies, our findings
show that closing prices are more informative under the auction mechanism than under the
random closing mechanism. The goodness-of-fit estimate from the close-to-close return is
16
Our results are qualitatively identical but quantitatively stronger if the closing price is used to compute returns in
the pre-CAS and post-CAS periods.
20
64.3% during the CAS period. However, this estimate drops by 8.0 and 15.6 percentage points
in the pre-CAS and post-CAS periods, respectively. These differences have economic and
statistical significance. The results using the goodness-of-fit for the last-ten-minute returns are
qualitatively similar.
Our evidence from the previous sections indicates that the closing auction mechanism is
whether the informativeness of closing prices is poorer on days when price manipulation is likely
to occur. To precisely measure the impact of this possibility, we drop the goodness-of-fit
methodology for two reasons. First, the power of the test from this approach is weak in
measuring price informativeness precisely on the exact day when stock price is manipulated.
Second, the incidence of price manipulation should be infrequent (may be several days in a year)
to ensure the market would not develop counter-sniping strategies to nullify the price impact
of the closing price. We reason that if the closing price is precisely measured to reflect all
publicly available information, price reversal would be unlikely. Moreover, price reversal allows
is initiated by informed (uninformed) traders, price momentum should continue (reverse) on the
following open. This is because trades initiated by insiders have informational value and can
predict future return, while those from manipulators distort the fundamental value of the stock.
In his seminal paper, Kyle (1985) finds that in a model with multiple round of trading, insider
transactions are positively correlated over time and their transactions cause prices to be
21
increasingly informative over time. Consistent with this hypothesis, Brochet (2010) and
Lakonishok and Lee (2001) find that the market reacts quickly and positively (negatively) to
We expect that price reversal should be stronger on days when price manipulation is
likely to occur and that this relation should be particularly strong during the CAS period than
during the pre-CAS and post-CAS periods. We follow Pagano and Schwartz (2003) to use the
close-to-open return to measure the extent of price reversal. We use three methods to identify
days that price manipulation is likely to occur: (i) days when large price changes during the final
10-minute interval occur; (ii) days when CBBCs expire; and (iii) days when sniping attacks
occur.
Although the results in Table 9 suggest that closing auctions produce more informative
manipulation tends to produce large and sudden changes in stock prices. For each stock in each
trading day, we calculate the percentage price change during the final ten-minute interval. In
column (1) of Table 10, we select the ten observations with the largest absolute percentage price
changes for each of the pre-CAS, CAS, and post-CAS periods. The total sample size is therefore
30. Column (2) selects the observations with the largest 100 absolute percentage price changes
during the last ten-minute interval for each period. In columns (3) to (5), the sample is
progressively expanded to include observations with the largest 200, 500, and 1500 largest
absolute percentage price changes during the final ten minutes before the close. The full sample
22
To measure the degree of price manipulation in the closing period in the CAS period, we
include returns measured over the final 10-minute interval before the close (R10m) and interacted
this variable with a binary variable for the pre-CAS period and a binary variable for the post-
CAS period. To obtain a comparable measure of returns in the pre-CAS and post-CAS period,
we measure returns over the final 10-minute interval from 3:504:00 p.m.
We find that during the CAS period price reversal is particularly large and noticeable on
days when very large price changes occur during the final 10-minute interval. For instance, the
estimate for R10m in column (1) is negative and suggests that when the price changes by one
percent during the CAS, 87.4% of this change would revert on the following open. In contrast,
the estimates for R10mpre-CAS and R10mpost-CAS in column (1) are positive. This implies
that only 56.5% (= 0.3091 0.8740) and 38.6% (= 0.4876 0.8740) of the same price change in
the pre-CAS and post-CAS periods, respectively, would revert on the following open. These
estimates are large and have economic and statistical significance. The only exception is that the
estimate for R10mpre-CAS is not statistically significantly at the 10% level. While it is not
shown here, the average absolute percentage price change in the final 10-minute interval before
the close of the ten largest observations is 5.8%, 8.4%, and 4.2% in the pre-CAS, CAS and post-
Price reversals during the CAS period are weaker when we expand our sample by
including observations with smaller price changes. The results in columns (2)(6) show that
while the price reversal estimates (i.e., R10m) during the CAS period remain negative across all
regressions, their absolute magnitudes are negatively correlated with the sample size.
Consistent with our expectation that the incidence of price manipulation should be
infrequent, our results indicate that, relative to the non-CAS periods, price reversal during the
23
CAS period is pronounced only on days when price changes in the final 10-minute interval are
very large. Specifically, the absolute magnitudes of the estimates for R10mpre-CAS and
R10mpost-CAS in columns (2)(3) are smaller than those in column (1). In addition, they
remain positive and statistically significant at the 10% level, suggesting the price reversal
remains more likely in the CAS period than in the non-CAS period. Nevertheless, the estimates
for R10mpre-CAS and R10mpost-CAS in columns (4)(6) become negative. This suggests that,
on average, price reversals during the CAS period are less likely than non-CAS period on days
The results from the full sample group in column (6) imply that when the price change by
one percent in the final 10-minute interval during the CAS period, only 23.8% of this change
would revert on the following open. In contrast, 29.4% in the pre-CAS period and 33.9% in the
post-CAS period of the same price change would revert on the following open. The larger price
reversals in the CAS period relative to the non-CAS periods are statistically significant at the 5%
level.
Table 11 presents firm fixed-effects regression results of the impact of expired CBBCs on
price reversal. Again, because of the small number of expired CBBCs in the pre-CAS period, we
combine observations in the pre-CAS and post-CAS periods into a single period, and call it the
non-CAS period. The estimate for ncbbcR10m indicates that price reversal is strong and
statistically significant at the 5% level on days when CBBCs expired during the CAS period. If a
CBBC expires on a certain day and the underlying stock price drops by 1% in the final 10-
minute interval, the stock price would bounce back by 0.082% on the following open. Yet, if the
same event happens in the non-CAS period, price momentum would persist in the following
open on days with expired CBBCs. The estimate for ncbbcnonCASR10m is positive and
24
statistically significant at the 1% level. Specifically, during the non-CAS period, the same event
would cause the stock price to drop further by 0.005% (= 0.0868 0.0817) when the market
Table 12 presents firm fixed-effects regression results on the impact of the extent of
sniping on price reversal during the CAS period. To measure the degree of sniping, we include
returns measured over the ten-second interval before the close and interact this variable with our
measures of sniping and a binary variable for the non-CAS period. Consistent with our
column (3) imply that the degree of price reversal is large on days when the degree of either
sniping in price or sniping in both price and trade volume is large during the CAS period. These
estimates are statistically significant at the conventional levels. However, such a price reversal is
not observed on days when only sniping in trade volume is observed in the CAS period.
According to the estimates in column (1), if sniping in price occurs on the day for a stock and the
price of this stock drops by 1% in the final 10-second interval before the close, the stock price
would bounce back by 0.73% when the market opens the next trading day. Nevertheless, the
estimate for snipe(p)nonCASR10s implies that the degree of price reversal for the same
scenario is significantly smaller in the non-CAS period. In particular, the stock price would
bounce back by only 0.06% (= 0.73% + 0.67%) if the same incident occurs during the non-CAS
period.
VII. Other Evidence on Closing Price Manipulation during the CAS Period
25
There are a variety of motives and strategies for price manipulation. Hillion and Suominen
(2004) and Felixson and Pelli (1999) argue that brokers manipulate the closing price to improve
their execution qualities. Fund managers can manipulate the closing price to window-dress
their performances.17 Specifically, Goetzmann, Ingersoll, Spiegel, and Welch (2007) point out
that traditional measures of fund performance can be gamed and vulnerable to price
sway market sentiment, as closing prices are widely used by the media, investors, and investment
managers to determine asset values (see Kyle and Viswanathan, 2008). Closing prices are also
likely to be manipulated on days especially when these prices are being used to determine index
prices, particularly for major market indices which add or delete constituent stocks from their
portfolios. Anecdotal evidence suggests that price manipulations are particularly rampant on
days when the Morgan Stanley Capital International index (MSCI) re-balances their major
indices during the CAS period.18 As costs of closing price manipulation are lower under the
auction mechanism, the financial incentive to manipulate the closing price on those MSCI index
re-balancing days should be larger during the CAS period than during the non-CAS periods.
17
Some anecdotal evidences in Hong Kong are consistent with the hypothesis that window dressing was being used
during the CAS period. Mutual funds typically use October 31 to compute their (quarterly or semi-annually)
performances. A case in point is the unusual price movements for some stocks during the closing auction session on
October 31, 2008. For all stocks listed on the main board of the HKEx, we compute their returns during the 10-
minute interval of the closing auction session on that day. We rank changes in stock returns by their absolute
values. We find that the top ten changes in returns are all positive and these increases are large with a minimum
increase in stock return of 14%. The top two changes in returns are exceptionally large. During the 10-minute
interval, stock price of Sinotrans rose from $1.02 to $1.68 (by 64.7%) while that of China Insurance International
Holdings rose from $11.98 to $17.80 (by 48.6%). However, these price increases were not permanent as they
subsequently reversed. Stock price of Sinotrans dropped from $1.68 to $1.30 when the market opened on the next
trading day and then closed at $1.15 the following day. Similarly, shares of China Insurance International Holdings
dropped from $17.8 to $13.46 when the market opened on next trading day and then closed at $11.70 two trading
days later. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index increased from 13,968 to 14,436 (by 3.35%) when the market opened
on next trading day and then closed at 14,384 two trading days later.
18
Suspected price manipulation incidents on the MSCI index rebalancing days are not uncommon. For example,
Comerton-Forde, Lau, and McInish (2007) examine the Singapore Exchange and find that suspected price
manipulations had happened on the days when MSCI re-balances its index. Yet, these suspected cases occurred
before the Singapore Exchange adopted a call auction mechanism to determine the closing price.
26
To examine the impact and extent of closing price manipulations on days when MSCI re-
balances their major indices, we expand our sample from 39 stocks to all stocks listed on the
main board of the HKEx. The expanded sample includes small- and mid-cap stocks in addition
to large-cap stocks. The inclusion of mid- and small-cap stocks is necessary as they constitute
literally all the stocks that are added to or deleted from major MSCI indices. Table 13 presents
the top ten last-ten-minute return in percentage terms by their absolute values for stocks listed on
the main board of the HKEx in each of the three CAS period.19 The last-ten-minute return is
measured over a ten-minute interval from the last transacted price at 4:00 p.m. (3:50 p.m.) to the
closing price at 4:10 p.m. (4:00 p.m.) in the CAS (non-CAS) period. Specifically, Panels (a) and
(b) of Table 13 present those changes in the CAS period (i.e., May 30, 2008 in panel (a) and
November 25, 2008 in panel (b)) while panels (c) and (d) list those changes in the pre-CAS (i.e.,
November 30, 2007) and post-CAS period (i.e., May 29, 2009) , respectively. Data on close-to-
open return for these stocks are also provided in Table 13.
Results in panels (a) and (b) indicate that the mean last-ten-minute return (R10m) by
absolute value for the twenty observations during the CAS period is 11.99%. This figure is large
and has economic significance. In 19 of these 20 stocks, we observe a large and meaningful
price reversal on the following open. Our findings strongly suggest that these closing prices are
not informative and likely to be manipulated on the two MSCI index re-balancing days during
19
Bid-ask spread is typically large for penny stocks. A simple round-trip transaction at the current bid and ask can
produce a large price change even if this change is not triggered by price manipulation. Imagine the last transacted
price of a penny stock is $0.1 and the prevailing best bid and offer is $0.09 and $0.10. Thus, an arrival of a small
sell order executed at the best bid represents a change in stock price of 10%. To prevent a simple (uninformed) bid-
ask bouncing effect from potentially biasing our results, we exclude stocks with prices less than $1 from our sample
tabulated in Table 13. Yet, our results are qualitatively and quantitatively similar if these stocks are included.
27
In contrast, the mean last-ten-minute return by absolute value for the twenty observations
is 9.49% and 5.28% in the pre- and post-CAS periods, respectively. These two estimates are
significantly smaller than that of the CAS period. In addition, price reversal is also less
frequently observed. In only 8 out of a total of 20 stocks do we observe a large and meaningful
VIII. 24-Spread Rule and Price Manipulation during the CAS Period
The relaxation of the 24-spread rule during the CAS period should be a key factor that
contributes to price manipulation. During the continuous trading session, a binding constraint
for the allowable price change at any instant of time is the 24-spread rule. The HKEx removed
the 24-spread rule for orders submitted the closing auction session, greatly increasing the
allowable price movement. If the last transacted price of a stock is $50 at 4:00 p.m., the stock
price can deviate by only 2.4% (or $1.2) under the 24-spread rule. Yet, stock price can increase
by 900% (or $450) or decrease by 89% ($44.5) under the 9-times restriction rule during the CAS.
As larger price changes are feasible under the CAS, the relaxation of the 24-spread rule should
make price manipulation more profitable. We therefore expect to observe more price
manipulation during the CAS period than during the non-CAS periods.
We test this hypothesis by examining stocks that are likely to be bound by the 24-spread
rule by examining informativeness of closing prices on days when the 24-spread rule is violated.
As data on order arrivals and limit order books are unavailable to us, we cannot precisely
identify stocks that have standing limit orders that are 24 spreads away from their nominal prices
at 4:00 p.m. As a compromise, we use IEP as a surrogate to identify such a violation. As limit
orders are firm (i.e., cannot be canceled or modified) during the final two-minute interval before
28
the close in the CAS period, we use IEP during this 2-minute interval to infer whether firm limit
orders beyond 24-spreads have been submitted during the CAS. We define a violation of the 24-
spread rule at the buy-side (i.e., buy24spr) if the maximum IEP during the last two minutes is
greater than 24 spreads of the nominal price at 4:00 p.m. Similarly, we define a violation of the
24-spread rule at the sell-side (i.e., sell24spr) if the minimum IEP during the last two
minutes is less than 24-spread of the nominal price at 4:00 p.m. We further construct a variable
to capture the violation of the 24-spread rule at both the buy-side and the sell-side. The variable
24spr takes the value of one if buy24spr is one, minus one if sell24spr is one, and zero
if otherwise. We note that our measure does not capture all instances when the 24-spread rule is
violated, as the IEP may not reach limit orders that are very high or very low. We follow similar
procedures to measure deviations from 24 spreads in the non-CAS period: buy24spr is equal
to one if the maximum price in 3:584:00 p.m. is more than 24 spreads higher than the price at
3:50 p.m., and sell24spr is equal to one if the minimum price in 3:584:00 p.m. is more than
when 24-spread rule is violated. Table 14 presents firm fixed-effects regression results on the
impact of the 24-spread rule on price reversal during the CAS period. Consistent with our
expectations, the estimate for 24spr in column (1) is positive while that for 24sprnonCAS is
negative. Both estimates are large and have economic and statistical significance. The close-to-
open return is 2.04% for orders that violated the 24-spread rule during the CAS period. In
contrast, the close-to-open return is +0.28% (= 2.32% 2.04%) for orders that violated the 24-
29
If we separate violations by buyer- or seller-initiated orders, our results indicate that price
reversal is stronger for limit sell orders that are 24-spread away from the prevailing nominal
price than comparable limit buys orders. This relation is particularly strong during the CAS
period than during the non-CAS period. The estimate for sell24spr in column (2) is positive
while that for sell24sprnonCAS is negative. Both estimates are large and have economic
and statistical significance. These estimates imply that the close-to-open return is +2.2% for
limit sell orders that violated the 24-spread rule during the CAS period while that for the non-
CAS period is 1.1% (= 3.29% + 2.19%). The effect is weaker for limit buy orders that
violated the 24-spread rule during the CAS period. The estimate for buy24spr in column (2) is
negative while that for buy24sprnonCAS is positive. Both estimates are large in economic
terms. The first estimate is statistically significant at the 1% level, but the latter is only
IV. Conclusions
Our empirical findings provide convincing evidence that a plain vanilla call auction to determine
the closing price is susceptible to price manipulation, particularly in the form of sniping.
According to the ten-month experience at the HKEx, we find that the closing price is more
informative or accurately priced under the closing auction mechanism. Yet, closing prices can
be uninformative or distortive on days when price manipulation is likely to occur, e.g., on days
when large price changes in the final ten-minute interval occur, when CBBCs expire, when
sniping attacks occur, and when closing prices are used as benchmark prices for re-balancing
30
This study has important policy implications given call auctions are widely used to
determine opening and closing prices for equities around the world. In the wake of the extreme
price volatility for some stocks when MSCI re-balanced their major indices on May 30, 2008, the
HKEx had decided to introduce a price control mechanism during the closing auction session to
reduce price manipulation. This enhancement is scheduled to be effective on June 22, 2009.
Yet, the enhancement has never been implemented because the closing auction session was
indefinitely suspended since March 23, 2009. The proposed price control mechanism allows
closing prices to deviate from the nominal price at 4:00 p.m. by only 2%. We believe that this
enhancement would weaken the incentive to manipulate the closing price by making the act less
profitable, because the maximum price deviation from the prevailing nominal price at 4:00 p.m.
would be drastically reduced from +900% or 89% to 2% during the closing auction session.
However, this enhancement cannot eradicate the incentive to manipulate prices in the
form of sniping because the deadline remains fixed rather than random. The proposed price
control mechanism changes the focal time for price manipulation from 4:10 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. As
the allowable movement of closing prices is directly determined by the nominal price at 4:00
p.m., the nominal price at 4:00 p.m. would become the target for price manipulation. There are a
variety of methods to manipulate this nominal price; one possibility is sniping successively at
4:00 p.m. Specifically, manipulators may submit a sequence of surprisingly large market orders
in the final minute before 4:00 p.m., with each order being just fractions of a second away from
one another. Next, a sequence of small but aggressive limit sell orders (e.g., 24 spreads from the
prevailing nominal price) are submitted concurrently such that their buy orders can exactly
crossed with those incoming limit sell orders to generate valid transaction prices.20
20
Our conjecture should be warranted because this closing price manipulation tactic is not uncommon. In fact,
similar tactics have been detected and successfully prosecuted by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures
31
and a sequence of small but aggressive limit sell (buy) orders in the final seconds of the
continuous trading session, nominal prices at 4:00 p.m. can be marked up (down) substantially.
Imagine that a trader submits ten individual and yet surprisingly large market buy orders, each
executed one second apart in the final ten seconds of the continuous trading session.
Concurrently, the same trader submits ten small limit sell orders with each specified at a price
2.4% lower than the prevailing nominal price and again each executed one second apart in the
final ten seconds of the continuous trading session. If successful, this strategy can boost stock
price by a maximum of 26.77%.21 Yet, this manipulation strategy can be costly to implement as
We believe a fixed deadline together with a large allowable price movement contribute to
the vulnerability of the closing call auction to price manipulation in the HKEx. In fact, many
worldwide stock exchanges have additional refinements to reduce extreme price movement
concluded from the closing auction mechanism. These refinements include: (i) a daily price
limit, (ii) a random (rather than fixed) deadline to determine the closing price, and (iii) a special
price stabilizing mechanism to reduce volatility of the closing price. Table 15 presents
refinements to the closing auction mechanism to reduce extreme price movement in ten major
stock exchanges around the world. The first refinement is to impose a daily price limit. This
refinement is very common to major stock exchanges in Asia, e.g., Tokyo Stock Exchange,
Korea Exchange, Taiwan Stock Exchange, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Another refinement
increases costs of manipulation by adopting a random deadline to determine the closing price.
Commission when the HKEx used the random closing procedure to determine the closing price. Details of such
cases are available from http://www.sfc.hk/sfcPressRelease/EN/sfcOpenDocServlet?docno=08PR94.
21
If each of such buy order can boost stock price by 2.4%, 10 such orders can boost stock price by a total of 26.77%
( = (1+0.024)10 1).
32
Examples of this refinement include Australian Securities Exchange, London Stock Exchange,
and Deutsche Brse. The third refinement includes an explicit order-balancing mechanism to
stabilize the closing price. For example, New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq widely
disseminate the net order imbalance to market participants for orders designated to determine the
closing price. In addition, in the final 15 (20) minutes before the close, the NYSE (Nasdaq)
accepts only orders that are on the stabilizing side of the market. Another form of the price-
deviates significantly from the last transacted price or a certain pre-specified price limit. This
To weaken the incentive of price manipulation in the form of sniping, call auctions with a
random deadline to close should be less susceptible to sniping than call auctions with a fixed
deadline. In fact, call auctions with a random deadline to close is commonly practiced in major
stocks exchanges, namely the London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Brse, and Australian Stock
Exchange. To our knowledge, notable price manipulation is rare under such a random closing
mechanism. The variety of safeguards adopted in other stock exchanges and the experience of
the price manipulations under the plain-vanilla call auction system in HKEx provides a lesson
that seemingly minor details can matter when it comes to the design of trading mechanisms.
33
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35
Figure 1. Indicative Equilibrium Price and Primary Buy and Sell Queue for HSBC Shares
during the Closing Auction Sessions
The solid line represents the indicative equilibrium price (IEP); the dashed line represents the primary sell queue;
and the dotted line represents the primary buy queue. Vertical line marks the beginning of the pre-order matching
period, when order cancellation and amendment are prohibited. Circle represents the IEP at $33. The IEP must be a
price at and between the highest limit bid and the lowest limit ask and maximizes the matched shares, i.e., the
indicative equilibrium volume (IEV). The primary sell (buy) queue is the queue of at-auction sell (buy) orders and
at-auction limit sell (buy) orders with a specified price at or more competitive than the IEP.
15
39
10
35 36 37
5
34
33
0
1600 1601 1602 1603 1604 1605 1606 1607 1608 1609 1610
Time (hhmm)
(b) Friday, March 6, 2009
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44
50
43
40
Indicative Equilibrium Price ($)
10 20 30
35
34
33
1600 1601 1602 1603 1604 1605 1606 1607 1608 1609 1610
Time (hhmm)
36
37
snipe(v)postCAS -0.5639***
(0.1010)
snipe(v) 1.0209***
(0.0465)
snipe(p)preCAS -0.7952***
(0.0722)
snipe(p)postCAS -0.7774***
(0.0864)
snipe(p) 1.1466***
(0.0523)
38
39
40
This table presents the incidence of expired callable bull and bear contracts (CBBCs) in pre-CAS, CAS, and post-
CAS periods, respectively. A CBBC is expired if it is either expires naturally on the maturity date or expires early.
An early expiration is known as the mandatory call event (MCE) and occurs when the underlying assets price
reaches the call price at any time prior to the maturity date. We include category R CBBCs only in our sample. A
category R CBBC refers to a CBBC where its call price is different from the strike price and the holder may receive
a small amount of cash payment (henceforth residual value) upon the occurrence of the MCE. Once the MCE is
triggered, the residual value of the CBBC is determined primarily by the positive amount of the settlement price less
the strike price. The settlement price is typically the minimum (maximum) price of the underlying asset for a bull
(bear) CBBC after the MCE and up to the next trading session. Day-high at the close is the fraction of observations
that the closing price (last transacted price) equals the highest transacted price of the day in the CAS (non-CAS)
period; and day-low at the close is the fraction of observations that the closing price (last transacted price) equals the
lowest transacted price of the day in the CAS (non-CAS) period. Figures in percentage terms are reported in
parenthesis and the corresponding standard errors are reported in bracket.
41
42
Table 8. Expired CBBCs and Likelihood of Day-high and Day-low at the Close
We use a probit regression model to examine the effect of expired CBBCs on the probability of day-high and day-
low at the close. The dependent variable is either a binary variable for day-high at the close, a binary variable for
day-low at the close, or stock return in percent in the final 10 seconds interval before the close. Specifically, day-
high takes the value of one if the closing (last transacted) price of a stock is the highest transacted price of the day
for the stock in the CAS (non-CAS) period, and zero otherwise; and day-low takes the value of one if the closing
(last transacted) price of a stock is the lowest transacted price of the day for the stock in the CAS (non-CAS) period,
and zero otherwise. The variable p10s measures the stock return in the last ten seconds interval before the close.
The variable nbear (nbull) is the number of expired bear (bull) CBBCs for a firm in the day, and zero if
otherwise. The variable nonCAS takes the value of one if the observation is taken in the pre-CAS and post-CAS
periods, and zero if otherwise. The corresponding robust standard errors clustered at the firm-period level are
reported in parenthesis. Statistical significance is marked at the 1% (***), 5% (**) and 10% (*) levels.
43
We use a firm fixed-effects model to examine informativeness of the closing price in the pre-CAS, CAS, and post-
CAS periods. We use goodness-of-fit (i.e., adjusted R-square) of the market model as a proxy for price
informativeness. We use two stock return intervals to measure goodness-of-fit of the market model: (i) close-to-
close return; and (ii) last-ten-minute return. Specifically, for each stock in each period, we regress the close-to-
close return for a stock on the market close-to-close return. The close-to-close return is the simple percentage return
of the closing price (last transacted price) between day t and day t+1 in the CAS (non-CAS) period. For each stock
in each period, we obtain an estimated R-square. To precisely measure price informativeness during the closing
period, we use the last-ten-minute return. The last-ten-minute return is measured over the final 10-minute interval
before the close. Specifically, it is measured by the last transacted price during the continuous trading session at
4:00 p.m. to the closing price at 4:10 p.m. of the current day during the CAS period. During the non-CAS period, it
is measured by the last transacted price at 3:50 p.m. to the last transacted price at 4:00 p.m. of the current day. The
variable preCAS (postCAS) takes the value of one if the observation is taken in the pre-CAS (post-CAS) period,
and zero if otherwise. The corresponding robust standard errors are reported in parenthesis. Statistical significance
is marked at the 1% (***), 5% (**) and 10% (*) levels.
(1) (2)
R2 (close-to-close) R2 (last-ten-minute)
preCAS -0.0804*** -0.0376***
(0.0221) (0.0072)
44
45
We use a firm fixed-effects model to examine the effect of the number of expired CBBCs on price informativeness.
We use the close-to-open return as a proxy for informativeness of the closing price. The close-to-open return is the
simple percentage return between the closing price (last transacted price) of day t and the opening price of day t+1 in
the CAS (non-CAS) period. The variable R10m is the simple stock return in the final 10-minute interval before the
close, i.e., 4:004:10 p.m. in the CAS period and 3:504:00 p.m. in the non-CAS periods. The variable ncbbc is
the number of expired CBBC for a firm on the day, and zero if otherwise; nonCAS takes the value of one if the
observation is taken in the pre-CAS and post-CAS periods, and zero if otherwise; and Rm is the close-to-open return
of the Hang Seng Index of the day. The corresponding robust standard errors clustered at the firm-period level are
reported in parenthesis. Statistical significance is marked at the 1% (***), 5% (**) and 10% (*) levels.
(1)
close-to-open return
ncbbcnonCASR10m 0.0868***
(0.0247)
ncbbcR10m -0.0817***
(0.0238)
ncbbcnonCAS 0.0294
(0.0491)
ncbbc -0.0306
(0.0491)
nonCASR10m -0.0907
(0.0560)
R10m -0.2194***
(0.0526)
nonCAS 0.0313
(0.0221)
Rm 0.9612***
(0.0300)
constant 0.0401**
(0.0194)
46
We use the firm fixed-effects model to examine the effect of sniping on price informativeness. We use the close-to-
open return as a proxy for informativeness of the closing price. The close-to-open return is the simple percentage
return between the closing price (last transacted price) of day t and the opening price of day t+1 in the CAS (non-
CAS) period. The binary variable snipe(x) takes the value of one if the absolute change in x for a stock during
the final 10-second interval before the close is strictly greater than any absolute change in x for the stock in any of
the remaining five 10-second intervals of the closing minute, where x is either p (price), v (trade volume), or pv
(both price and trade volume). The variable R10s is the simple stock return in the final 10-second interval before the
close for the stock. The variable nonCAS takes the value of one if the observation is taken in the non-CAS, and
zero otherwise, and Rm is the close-to-open return for the Hang Seng Index of the day. The corresponding robust
standard errors clustered at the firm-period level are reported in parenthesis. Statistical significance is marked at the
1% (***), 5% (**) and 10% (*) levels.
47
Table 13. Top Ten Price Changes on Days when MSCI Performs Index Re-balancing
This table presents the top ten largest absolute percentage change in prices in the final 10-minute interval before the
close for all stocks listed on the main board of the HKEx with price of above $1 on the day when MSCI performs its
semi-annual index re-balancing activity in the CAS (in panels (a) and (b)), pre-CAS (in panel (c)) and post-CAS
periods (in panel (d)), respectively. The variable R10m is the simple stock return in the final 10-minute interval
before the close for a stock, i.e., 4:004:10 p.m. in the CAS period and 3:504:00 p.m. in the non-CAS periods; Rco
denotes the the close-to-open return and is the simple percentage return between the closing price of day t and the
opening price of day t+1; P10m,t is the nominal price 10-minute before the close in day t; Pc,t is the closing price in
day t; and Po,t+1 is the opening price in day t+1. Bold-faced indicates that a stock experiences price reversal on the
following open.
48
49
We use a firm fixed-effects model with the close-to-open return as the dependent variable. The variable R10m is the
simple stock return between 4:004:10 p.m. in the CAS period and between 3:504:00 p.m. in the non-CAS periods.
The variable buy24spr (sell24spr) equals one if the largest (smallest) indicative equilibrium price taken
within the final 2-minute interval before the close deviates more than 24 spreads from the transacted price taken at
the final 10-minute interval before the close, i.e., 4:00 p.m. in the CAS period and 3:50 p.m. in the non-CAS periods,
and equals zero otherwise. The variable 24spr takes the value of one if buy24spr is one, minus one if
sell24spr is one, and zero if otherwise. The variable nonCAS equals one if the observation is taken in the pre-
CAS and post-CAS periods, and equals zero otherwise; and Rm is the close-to-open return of the Hang Seng Index of
the day. The corresponding robust standard errors clustered at the firm-period level are reported in parenthesis.
Statistical significance is marked at the 1% (***), 5% (**) and 10% (*) levels.
(1) (2)
close-to-open return close-to-open return
buy24sprnonCAS 1.7125*
(1.0124)
buy24spr -1.9753***
(0.7159)
sell24sprnonCAS -3.2880***
(0.8003)
sell24spr 2.1938***
(0.5658)
24sprnonCAS 2.3178***
(0.7598)
24spr -2.0425***
(0.5908)
Rm 0.9609*** 0.9612***
(0.0301) (0.0301)
50
Table 15. Refinements to Closing Auction Mechanism to Reduce Extreme Price Movement
around Ten Major Worldwide Stock Exchangesa
This table presents refinements to the closing auction mechanism to reduce extreme price movement in ten major
stock exchanges around the World.
Stock Exchanges Daily Price Limit Deadline Other refinements on the closing auctions
Tokyo Stock Exchange Yes Fixed No
(sliding scale with
respect of the
previous closing
price)
Korea Exchange Yes Fixed No
(15% of the
previous closing
price)
Taiwan Stock Exchange Yes Fixed No
(7% of the
previous closing
price)
Shenzhen Stock Yes Fixed No
Exchange (10% of the
previous closing
price)
Australian Securities No Random No
Exchange
London Stock Exchange No Random No
New York Stock No Fixed Yes
Exchangeb (accepts on-close orders on the stabilizing
side of the market in the final 15 minutes)
Nasdaqb No Fixed Yes
(accepts imbalance-only orders on the
stabilizing side of the market in the final 20
minutes)
Deutsche Brse No Random Yes
(triggers a volatility auction when the closing
price deviates significantly from the last
transacted price)
Euronext No Fixed Yes
(triggers a volatility interruption when the
closing price reaches certain price limits)
a
Information on the refinements on the closing auction mechanisms among worldwide stock exchanges are
obtained from the two HKEx consultation papers: (i) Introduction of a price control mechanism during the closing
auction session in the securities market and (ii) The introduction of a closing auction session available from
http://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/newsconsul/mktconsul/marketconsultation.htm.
b
Information on other refinements on the closing auction mechanism for the NYSE and Nasdaq are obtained from
their corporate websites.
51
Appendix 1. Algorithm to Compute IEP and IEV during the Closing Auction Session
The indicative equilibrium price (IEP) must be a price at and between the highest limit bid and
the lowest limit ask and maximizes the matched shares, i.e., the indicative equilibrium volume
(IEV). If there is a tie in IEP, three tie-breaker rules apply. The first rule selects the price with
the lowest order imbalance as the IEP. If this rule fails to break the tie, the second rule would
apply and pick the price which is closest to the nominal price at 4 p.m. as the IEP. If these two
rules fail, the third rule would apply and pick the highest price as the IEP.
The following example illustrates the algorithm to compute IEP, IEV, and the primary queue for
buy and sell orders during the CAS. The primary queue is the queue of at-auction orders and at-
auction limit orders with a specified price at or more competitive than the IEP. Let us assume
that the best bid and offer at 4pm is $37 and $38, respectively and the limit order book at
4:07:59pm is presented in (i) as follows:
(IA) Sniping at the Sell-side: A large at-auction sell-order of 18,000 arrives at 4:09:58 p.m.
4:09:58 p.m. Price Acc. Acc. Matched Order
Bid (Buy Orders) Ask (Sell Orders) Buy Sell Order Imbalance
Price Quantity Price Quantity $39 2,000 31,500 2,000 29,500
At-auction 1,000 At-auction 20,000 $38 3,000 21,500 3,000 18,500
$39 1,000 $37 1,000 $37 4,000 21,000 4,000 17,000
$38 1,000 $38 500
$37 1,000 $39 10,000 Primary Queue IEP IEV
Buy 4,000 $37 4,000
Sell 21,000
(IB) Sniping at the Buy-side: A large at-auction buy-order of 18,000 arrives at 4:09:58 p.m.
4:09:58 p.m. Price Acc. Acc. Matched Order
Bid (Buy Orders) Ask (Sell Orders) Buy Sell Order Imbalance
Price Quantity Price Quantity $39 20,000 13,500 13,500 6,500
At-auction 19,000 At-auction 2,000 $38 21,000 3,500 3,500 17,500
$39 1,000 $37 1,000 $37 22,000 3,000 3,000 19,000
$38 1,000 $38 500
$37 1,000 $39 10,000 Primary Queue IEP IEV
Buy 20,000 $39 13,500
Sell 13,500
52
(II) Benchmark Case with a small but aggressive limit sell-order at $33
4:07:59 p.m. Price Acc. Acc. Matched Order
Bid (Buy Orders) Ask (Sell Orders) Buy Sell Order Imbalance
Price Quantity Price Quantity $39 2,000 13,600 2,000 11,600
At-auction 1,000 At-auction 2,000 $38 3,000 3,600 3,000 600
$39 1,000 $33 100 $37 4,000 3,100 3,100 900
$38 1,000 $37 1,000 $33 4,000 2,100 2,100 1,900
$37 1,000 $38 500
$39 10,000 Primary Queue IEP IEV
Buy 4,000 $37 3,100
Sell 3,100
(IIA) Sniping at the Sell-side: A large at-auction sell-order of 18,000 arrives at 4:09:58 p.m.
4:09:58 p.m. Price Acc. Acc. Matched Order
Bid (Buy Orders) Ask (Sell Orders) Buy Sell Order Imbalance
Price Quantity Price Quantity $39 2,000 31,600 2,000 29,600
At-auction 1,000 At-auction 20,000 $38 3,000 21,600 3,000 18,600
$39 1,000 $33 100 $37 4,000 21,100 4,000 17,100
$38 1,000 $37 1,000 $33 4,000 20,100 4,000 16,100
$37 1,000 $38 500
$39 10,000 Primary Queue IEP IEV
Buy 4,000 $33 4,000
Sell 20,100
(IIB) Sniping at the Buy-side: A large at-auction buy-order of 18,000 arrives at 4:09:58 p.m.
4:09:58 p.m. Price Acc. Acc. Matched Order
Bid (Buy Orders) Ask (Sell Orders) Buy Sell Order Imbalance
Price Quantity Price Quantity $39 20,000 13,600 13,600 6,400
At-auction 19,000 At-auction 2,000 $38 21,000 3,600 3,600 17,500
$39 1,000 $33 100 $37 22,000 3,100 3,100 18,900
$38 1,000 $37 1,000 $33 22,000 2,100 2,100 19,900
$37 1,000 $38 500
$39 10,000 Primary Queue IEP IEV
Buy 20,000 $39 13,600
Sell 13,600
(IIC) Order Cancellation: The limit sell-order at $33 is canceled prior to 4:08:00 p.m.
4:08:00 p.m. Price Acc. Acc. Matched Order
Bid (Buy Orders) Ask (Sell Orders) Buy Sell Order Imbalance
Price Quantity Price Quantity $39 2,000 13,500 2,000 11,500
At-auction 1,000 At-auction 2,000 $38 3,000 3,500 3,000 500
$39 1,000 $33 100 $37 4,000 3,000 3,000 1000
$38 1,000 $37 1,000
$37 1,000 $38 500
$39 10,000 Primary Queue IEP IEV
Buy 3,000 $38 3,000
Sell 3,500
53