Historical data from Alaska Air Group

Operating Revenues: 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011

Passenger 5006.0 4793.0 4579.0 4267.0 4030.0 3708.0
Freight and mail 108.0 108.0 114.0 113.0 111.0 109.0
Other net 817.0 697.0 675.0 776.0 516.0 501.0
Total Operating Revenues 5931.0 5598.0 5368.0 5156.0 4,657.0 4,318.0

Excluding Other net 5114.0 4901.0 4693.0 4380.0 4141.0 3817.0

Operating Expenses:
Wages and benefits 1382.0 1254.0 1136.0 1086.0 1038.0 991.0
Variable incentive pay 127.0 120.0 116.0 105.0 88.0 72.0
Aircraft fuel, including hedging gains and losses 831.0 954.0 1418.0 1467.0 1459.0 1298.0
Aircraft maintenance 270.0 253.0 229.0 247.0 222.0 206.0
Aircraft rent 114.0 105.0 110.0 119.0 116.0 116.0
Landing fees and other rentals 320.0 296.0 279.0 262.0 243.0 238.0
Contracted services 342.0 286.0 254.0 221.0 200.0 185.0
Selling expenses 225.0 211.0 199.0 179.0 168.0 175.0
Depreciation and amortization 363.0 320.0 294.0 270.0 264.0 247.0
Food and beverage service 126.0 113.0 93.0 84.0 79.0 67.0
Other 365.0 356.0 308.0 278.0 248.0 235.0
Restructuring charges and adjustments 117.0 32.0 -30.0 0.0 0.0 39.0
Total Operating Expenses 4,582.0 4,300.0 4,406.0 4,318.0 4,125.0 3,869.0

Excluding Other & Restructuring 4100.0 3912.0 4128.0 4040.0 3877.0 3595.0
Excluding Other, Restructuring, & Fuel 3269.0 2958.0 2710.0 2573.0 2418.0 2297.0

Operating Income (Loss) 1,349.0 1,298.0 962.0 838.0 532.0 449.0

Adjusted Operating Income 1,014.0 989.0 565.0 340.0 264.0 222.0

 Adjusted Operating Income Less Fuel Costs 1,845.0 1,943.0 1,983.0 1,807.0 1,723.0 1,520.0

Nonoperating Income (Expense):

Interest income 27.0 21.0 21.0 18.0 19.0 22.0
Interest expense (55.0) (42.0) (48.0) (56.0) (64.0) (87.0)
Interest capitalized 25.0 34.0 20.0 21.0 18.0 12.0
Other net (1.0) 1.0 20.0 (5.0) 9.0 (2.0)
Nonoperating Income (Expense) (4.0) 14.0 13.0 (22.0) (18.0) (55.0)

Income (loss) before income tax 1,345.0 1,312.0 975.0 816.0 514.0 394.0
Income tax expense (benefit) 531.0 464.0 370.0 308.0 198.0 149.0
Net Income (excludes accounting change) 814.0 848.0 605.0 508.0 316.0 245.0

OPERATING STATISTICS (unaudited):

Number of revenue bringing passengers (000) 34,289 31,883 29,278 27,414 25,896 24,790
Revenue passenger miles (RPM) (000,000) "traffic" 37,209 33,578 30,718 28,833 27,007 25,032
Available seat miles (ASM) (000,000) "capacity" 44,135 39,914 36,078 33,672 31,428 29,627
Load factor 0.84307239 0.84125871 0.851 0.856 0.859 0.845
Average # of full-time equivalent employees (FTE) 14,760 13,858 12,739 12,163 11,955 11,840

Non-company data
Alaska GDP per capita 63,971 67,770 67,475 67,200 70,437 68,871
Alaska population in million 0.740 0.737 0.736 0.735 0.731 0.722
US GDP per capita (in 2010) dollars 52,194 51,722 50,782 49,976 49,497 48,783
US population in million 323.1 320.9 318.6 316.2 314.0 311.6
J.D. Powers customer satisfaction score 765 751 719 737 717 678
Consumer price index (base year 2010 = 100) 110.1 108.7 108.6 106.8 105.3 103.2
ASM
ASM REGRESSION
coef 0.09199834 852.379167
5,000
s.e. 0.01625351 512.305036 4,500 f(x) = 0.0919983402x + 852.37916742
4,000 R = 0.7444119728
r^2 0.74441197 329.832904
3,500

Total Op Exp
t-stat 5.66021287 1.66381181 3,000
2,500
2,000
RPM 1,500
1,000
coef 0.09582 1294.81257 500
s.e. 0.01359734 350.676844 0
20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
r^2 0.8186494 277.832614 ASM
t-stat 7.04670055 3.69232411

Multiple ASM RPM

RPM REGRESSION
coef -0.13127755 0.22456173 2126.93009
5,000
s.e. 0.08096797 0.08041383 608.698 4,500 f(x) = 0.0958163877x + 1294.8125658163
r^2 4,000 R = 0.8186493987
0.85639897 259.297809 #N/A
3,500
t-stat

Total op Exp
-1.62135169 2.79257612 3.49422881 3,000
2,500
2,000
Wages and Benefits 1,500
coef 3.46587189 95.2653219 1,000
500
s.e. 0.84128708 883.652188 0
15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
r^2 0.60675156 409.126144
RPM
t-stat 4.11972555 0.10780862

Multiple CPI Cust Sat US Pop US GDP Alaska pop GDP Alaska
coef 80.6923166 3.93297756 -20.0646338 0.17054715 13475.8843 -0.04716057 -15286.6471
s.e. 35.5578257 1.87574268 29.24568192 0.04029313 5655.39495 0.01434742 5346.45793
r^2 0.99685501 83.8855391 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
t-stat 2.26932651 2.09675751 -0.68607167 4.23266106 2.382837 -3.28704268 -2.85921021
Load Factor
coef 3427.43754 -2396.13941
s.e. 1698.39034 1370.04747 LOAD FACTOR REGRESSION
2500

Adjusted without Fuel

r^2 0.27019542 280.787535 2000
t-stat 2.01805053 -1.74894627 1500 f(x) = 8507.2771710455x - 5476.6428495784
R = 0.7801386508
1000
Load Factor less Fuel Costs 500
coef 8507.27717 -5476.64285 0
0.7 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.88
s.e. 1361.70423 1098.45151
Load Factor
r^2 0.78013865 225.124675
t-stat 6.24752202 -4.98578481