Abstract

The demand of electricity is increasing drastically day by day. This increase in demand of
electrical energy has drawn the attention of power system engineers towards the reliable
operation of power system. For reliable operation of integrated power supply systems, a close
tracking of electrical load is required. Load forecasting predicts the load which is going to be
required at a particular time of day or on any particular day. Load forecasting plays an
important role in the smooth operation of any power system.

The purpose of short term load forecasting (STLF) is to predict electric loads with a lead
time of minutes,hours,days or weeks. It is very useful tool for electric utilites in several
applications including security analysis,unit commitment , economic allocation of generation
optimal energy interchange between utilities and maintenance scheduling. At present
application of fuzzy method for load forecasting is in the experimental stage. For the
demonstration of the method a fuzzy logic systems that forecasts the hourly daily peak load,
is selected.

The fuzzy system is a popular computing framework based on the concepts of fuzzy set
theory, fuzzy if then rules and fuzzy reasoning. The structure of fuzzy inference consists
of three conceptual components, namely:

Rule Base containing a selection of fuzzy rules.

Database defining the membership functions. These are used in the fuzzy rules.
Reasoning mechanism that performs the inference procedure upon the rules and
given facts and derives a reasonable output or conclusion.
.
Sometimes it is necessary to have crisp output. This requires a method called De-
fuzzification, to extract a crisp value that best represents the fuzzy output. With such crisp
inputs and outputs, a fuzzy expert system implements a non-linear mapping from the
input space to the output space. This mapping is accomplished by a number of if-then
rules, each of which describes a local behavior of the mapping.
To illustrate this let us consider:
X: a set of data or objects. (Example. Forecast load values).
A: another set containing data (or objects)
x: an individual value of the data set X.
A x is the membership function that connects the set X and A. The membership function
A x ,
Determines the degree that x belongs to A.
Its value varies between 0 and 1.
The high value of A x means that it is very likely that x is in A.
The membership function is selected by trial and error. There are four basic membership
functions namely:
Triangular.
 Trapezoidal.
Gaussian.
Generalized bell.

We have used triangular memebership function to compute the forecasted load.