Production of Electric Fans in India

Month 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

April 6.6 6.9 7.7 9 9.2 9.6
May 6.7 7.3 8.1 8.5 9.5 9.7
June 5.9 7.2 8.7 8.7 7.9 8.8
July 4.9 7.2 8.2 7.2 7 9.7
August 5.8 7.2 6.8 8.1 6.1 6.9
September 6.4 7.5 6.5 7.7 6.6 7.5
October 6.2 7.2 7.6 8.5 6.8 7.3
November 6.3 7.4 7.7 8.2 7 7.7
December 9.6 7.1 7.7 8.3 8.2 8.8
January 7.5 7.8 7.6 8.2 8.9 9.4
February 7.6 8.1 7.3 8.3 9.8 10.2
March 8.1 8.7 8 9.3 10.2 11.8
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
9.7 10.1 10.4 9.8
10.1 11.3 11.6 10.7
9.9 10.8 10.7 10.6
9.1 9.7 9.5 10.7
8.9 8.8 8.8 10
8.6 8.4 8.9
8.2 8.1 8.4
8.8 8.6 7.6
9.4 9.7 8.2
10.5 10.3 9.6
10.9 10.6 10.4
11.1 10.9 11.3
 Year Quarter Production
2000-01 1 19.2

2000-01 2 17.1

2000-01 3 22.1

2000-01 4 23.2

2001-02 1 21.4

2001-02 2 21.9

2001-02 3 21.7

2001-02 4 24.6

2002-03 1 24.5

2002-03 2 21.5

2002-03 3 25

2002-03 4 22.9

2003-04 1 26.2

2003-04 2 23

2003-04 3 25

2003-04 4 25.8

2004-05 1 26.6

2004-05 2 19.7

2004-05 3 22

2004-05 4 28.9

2005-06 1 28.1
2005-06 2 24.1

2005-06 3 23.8

2005-06 4 31.4

2006-07 1 29.7

2006-07 2 26.6

2006-07 3 26.4

2006-07 4 32.5

2007-08 1 32.2

2007-08 2 26.9

2007-08 3 26.4

2007-08 4 31.8

2008-09 1 32.7

2008-09 2 27.2

2008-09 3 24.2

2008-09 4 31.3

2009-10 1 31.1

2009-10 2 20.7

Step 5 Calculation of modified Mean

Year Q1 Q2
2000-01
2001-02 96.8325791855203 98.5376827896513
2002-03 104.310803618946 90.7651715039578
2003-04 107.929969104016 93.353627600203
2004-05 111.297071129707 82.3836905384213
2005-06 107.149666348904 90.814884597268
 2006-07 105.31914893617 92.8041866550371
2007-08 109.152542372881 91.4577135571611
2008-09 111.794871794872 94.0769563337657
2009-10 184.432913269088 159.84555984556

MAXIMUM 184.432913269088 159.84555984556

MINIMUM 96.8325791855203 82.3836905384213

Modified mean 108.1362961865 93.1157461481491

Total of
Indices 402.899950337137

Step 6 Adjust the Modified Mean

Quarter Unadjusted Indices Adjusting Constant

1 108.1362961865 0.99280230654109
2 93.1157461481491 0.99280230654109
3 92.2286373474337 0.99280230654109
4 109.419270655054 0.99280230654109

Total of Seasonal Indices

Mean of Seasonal indices

 Step 3:
Step 1: Step 2 : 4 -Quartered Centered
4 -Quarter Moving Total 4 -Quarter Moving Average Moving Average

81.6 20.4
20.675
83.8 20.95
21.55
88.6 22.15
22.1
88.2 22.05
22.225
89.6 22.4
22.7875
92.7 23.175
23.125
92.3 23.075
23.4875
95.6 23.9
23.6875
93.9 23.475
23.6875
95.6 23.9
24.0875
97.1 24.275
24.275
97.1 24.275
24.6375
100 25
25.05
100.4 25.1
24.6875
97.1 24.275
23.9
94.1 23.525
23.9125
97.2 24.3
24.4875
98.7 24.675
25.45
104.9 26.225
26.225
 104.9 26.225
26.5375
107.4 26.85
27.05
109 27.25
27.5625
111.5 27.875
28.2
114.1 28.525
28.6625
115.2 28.8
29.1125
117.7 29.425
29.4625
118 29.5
29.5
118 29.5
29.4125
117.3 29.325
29.3875
117.8 29.45
29.4875
118.1 29.525
29.25
115.9 28.975
28.9125
115.4 28.85
28.65
113.8 28.45
24.6125
83.1 20.775
16.8625
51.8 12.95
12.95

Q3 Q4

95.2276467361492 106.378378378378
105.540897097625 95.0700570835496
99.8003992015968 104.506329113924
89.8417559979582 113.555992141454
87.9852125693161 113.922902494331
90.6826964362387 110.309715740348
89.8341131433433 107.842306061891
84.4677137870855 127.171152869477

105.540897097625 127.171152869477
84.4677137870855 95.0700570835496

92.2286373474337 109.419270655054

Seasonal Index
107.357964274767
92.4455275511771
91.5648038876739
108.631704286382

400

100
 Step 4 :
Percentage of Actual to Moving
average Values

106.89238210399

107.656612529002

96.8325791855203

98.5376827896513

95.2276467361492

106.378378378378

104.310803618946

90.7651715039578

105.540897097625

95.0700570835496

107.929969104016

93.353627600203

99.8003992015968

104.506329113924

111.297071129707

82.3836905384213

89.8417559979582

113.555992141454

107.149666348904
90.814884597268

87.9852125693161

113.922902494331

105.31914893617

92.8041866550371

90.6826964362387

110.309715740348

109.152542372881

91.4577135571611

89.8341131433433

107.842306061891

111.794871794872

94.0769563337657

84.4677137870855

127.171152869477

184.432913269088

159.84555984556
 Year Quarter Actual Production Seasonal Index/100
2000-01 1 19.2 1.07357964274767

2000-01 2 17.1 0.924455275511771

2000-01 3 22.1 0.915648038876739

2000-01 4 23.2 1.08631704286382

2001-02 1 21.4 1.07357964274767

2001-02 2 21.9 0.924455275511771

2001-02 3 21.7 0.915648038876739

2001-02 4 24.6 1.08631704286382

2002-03 1 24.5 1.07357964274767

2002-03 2 21.5 0.924455275511771

2002-03 3 25 0.915648038876739

2002-03 4 22.9 1.08631704286382

2003-04 1 26.2 1.07357964274767

2003-04 2 23 0.924455275511771

2003-04 3 25 0.915648038876739

2003-04 4 25.8 1.08631704286382

2004-05 1 26.6 1.07357964274767

2004-05 2 19.7 0.924455275511771

2004-05 3 22 0.915648038876739

2004-05 4 28.9 1.08631704286382

2005-06 1 28.1 1.07357964274767

2005-06 2 24.1 0.924455275511771

2005-06 3 23.8 0.915648038876739

2005-06 4 31.4 1.08631704286382

2006-07 1 29.7 1.07357964274767

2006-07 2 26.6 0.924455275511771

2006-07 3 26.4 0.915648038876739

2006-07 4 32.5 1.08631704286382

2007-08 1 32.2 1.07357964274767

2007-08 2 26.9 0.924455275511771

2007-08 3 26.4 0.915648038876739

2007-08 4 31.8 1.08631704286382

2008-09 1 32.7 1.07357964274767

2008-09 2 27.2 0.924455275511771

2008-09 3 24.2 0.915648038876739

2008-09 4 31.3 1.08631704286382

2009-10 1 31.1 1.07357964274767

2009-10 2 20.7 0.924455275511771

 Deseasonlized Production
Actutal Production/Seasonal Index
17.8840947010325

18.4973794330219

24.1359114656227

21.3565645061028

19.9333138855258

23.689626291414

23.6990623893218

22.6453227090573

22.82085000913

23.2569390532146

27.3030672688039

21.0804020340412

24.4043375607839

24.8795161964622

27.3030672688039

23.749972597304

24.7769228670554

21.3098464813176

24.0266991965475

26.6036514752747

26.1741177655736

26.0694061015104
25.9925200399013

28.905005409122

27.6644589906596

28.7737013402562

28.8320390358569

29.9176011400148

29.9931171548566

29.0982167689058

28.8320390358569

29.2732220385375

30.458848787696

29.4227321975553

26.4293691162022

28.8129512517681

28.9685075626099

22.3915645768159
 Deseasonlized
Year Quarter Production (Y)
2000-01 1 17.8840947010325

2000-01 2 18.4973794330219

2000-01 3 24.1359114656227

2000-01 4 21.3565645061028

2001-02 1 19.9333138855258

2001-02 2 23.689626291414

2001-02 3 23.6990623893218

2001-02 4 22.6453227090573

2002-03 1 22.82085000913

2002-03 2 23.2569390532146

2002-03 3 27.3030672688039

2002-03 4 21.0804020340412

2003-04 1 24.4043375607839

2003-04 2 24.8795161964622

2003-04 3 27.3030672688039

2003-04 4 23.749972597304

2004-05 1 24.7769228670554

2004-05 2 21.3098464813176

2004-05 3 24.0266991965475

2004-05 4 26.6036514752747

2005-06 1 26.1741177655736

2005-06 2 26.0694061015104
2005-06 3 25.9925200399013

2005-06 4 28.905005409122

2006-07 1 27.6644589906596

2006-07 2 28.7737013402563

2006-07 3 28.8320390358569

2006-07 4 29.9176011400148

2007-08 1 29.9931171548566

2007-08 2 29.0982167689058

2007-08 3 28.8320390358569

2007-08 4 29.2732220385375

2008-09 1 30.458848787696

2008-09 2 29.4227321975553

2008-09 3 26.4293691162022

2008-09 4 28.8129512517681

2009-10 1 28.9685075626099

2009-10 2 22.391564576816

Column1 ∑Y Y'
969.365965703537 25.5096306764089

1 Using Least -Square Method -Linear

a) Slope of Trend Line Formulae

b=∑xY/∑x2

b) Intercept Formulae
a=Y'

c) Linear Equation Formulae

 Y^=a+bx

d) Projections Year
2009-10
2009-10
2010-11
2010-11
2010-11
2010-11
2011-12
2011-12
2011-12
2011-12

Using Least - Squre Method

2 -Non Linear

a) Formulae ∑Y=an+c∑x2
∑x2Y=a∑x2+c∑x4
b=∑xY/∑x2

b) Values a
24.467

c) Equation Formulae
Y^=a+bx+cx2

d) Projections Year
2009-10
2009-10
2010-11
2010-11
2010-11
2010-11
2011-12
2011-12
2011-12
2011-12
Translating or Coding the
Time Variable ,x=X-X' x xY x2 x4 x2Y
-17.5 -37 -661.711503938202 1369 1874161 24483.32565

-16.5 -35 -647.408280155766 1225 1500625 22659.28981

-15.5 -33 -796.485078365548 1089 1185921 26284.00759

-14.5 -31 -662.053499689188 961 923521 20523.65849

-13.5 -29 -578.066102680248 841 707281 16763.91698

-12.5 -27 -639.619909868178 729 531441 17269.73757

-11.5 -25 -592.476559733045 625 390625 14811.91399

-10.5 -23 -520.842422308318 529 279841 11979.37571

-9.5 -21 -479.23785019173 441 194481 10063.99485

-8.5 -19 -441.881842011078 361 130321 8395.754998

-7.5 -17 -464.152143569667 289 83521 7890.586441

-6.5 -15 -316.206030510617 225 50625 4743.090458

-5.5 -13 -317.256388290191 169 28561 4124.333048

-4.5 -11 -273.674678161084 121 14641 3010.42146

-3.5 -9 -245.727605419235 81 6561 2211.548449

-2.5 -7 -166.249808181128 49 2401 1163.748657

-1.5 -5 -123.884614335277 25 625 619.4230717

-0.5 -3 -63.9295394439528 9 81 191.7886183

-1 -24.0266991965475 1 1 24.0266992
0
1 26.6036514752747 1 1 26.60365148

0.5 3 78.5223532967208 9 81 235.5670599

1.5 5 130.347030507552 25 625 651.7351525

 2.5 7 181.947640279309 49 2401 1273.633482

3.5 9 260.145048682098 81 6561 2341.305438

4.5 11 304.309048897256 121 14641 3347.399538

5.5 13 374.058117423331 169 28561 4862.755527

6.5 15 432.480585537854 225 50625 6487.208783

7.5 17 508.599219380251 289 83521 8646.186729

8.5 19 569.869225942275 361 130321 10827.51529

9.5 21 611.062552147021 441 194481 12832.3136

10.5 23 663.13689782471 529 279841 15252.14865

11.5 25 731.830550963438 625 390625 18295.76377

12.5 27 822.388917267791 729 531441 22204.50077

13.5 29 853.259233729103 841 707281 24744.51778

14.5 31 819.310442602268 961 923521 25398.62372

15.5 33 950.827391308346 1089 1185921 31377.30391

16.5 35 1013.89776469135 1225 1500625 35486.42176

17.5 37 828.48788934219 1369 1874161 30654.05191

Column2 Column3 ∑xY ∑x2 ∑x4 ∑x2y

2146.19300524914 18278 15810470 452159.4991

Value
0.117419466311912

Value
25.5096306764089

Value
 25.509+.1323x

Quarter x Y^
3 18.5 27.95655
4 19.5 28.08885
1 20.5 28.22115
2 21.5 28.35345
3 22.5 28.48575
4 23.5 28.61805
1 24.5 28.75035
2 25.5 28.88265
3 26.5 29.01495
4 27.5 29.14725

b c
0.117419466311912 0.002548

Value
24.467+.1323x+..002548x2

Quarter x Y^
3 18.5 27.786603
4 19.5 28.015727
1 20.5 28.249947
2 21.5 28.489263
3 22.5 28.733675
4 23.5 28.983183
1 24.5 29.237787
2 25.5 29.497487
3 26.5 29.762283
4 27.5 30.032175
 1) Linear

Year Quarter Deseasonlised Production, Y x

2000-01 1 17.8840947010325 -37

2000-01 2 18.4973794330219 -35

2000-01 3 24.1359114656227 -33

2000-01 4 21.3565645061028 -31

2001-02 1 19.9333138855258 -29

2001-02 2 23.689626291414 -27

2001-02 3 23.6990623893218 -25

2001-02 4 22.6453227090573 -23

2002-03 1 22.82085000913 -21

2002-03 2 23.2569390532146 -19

2002-03 3 27.3030672688039 -17

2002-03 4 21.0804020340412 -15

2003-04 1 24.4043375607839 -13

2003-04 2 24.8795161964622 -11

2003-04 3 27.3030672688039 -9

2003-04 4 23.749972597304 -7

2004-05 1 24.7769228670554 -5

2004-05 2 21.3098464813176 -3

2004-05 3 24.0266991965475 -1

2004-05 4 26.6036514752747 1

2005-06 1 26.1741177655736 3
 2005-06 2 26.0694061015104 5

2005-06 3 25.9925200399013 7

2005-06 4 28.905005409122 9

2006-07 1 27.6644589906596 11

2006-07 2 28.7737013402563 13

2006-07 3 28.8320390358569 15

2006-07 4 29.9176011400148 17

2007-08 1 29.9931171548566 19

2007-08 2 29.0982167689058 21

2007-08 3 28.8320390358569 23

2007-08 4 29.2732220385375 25

2008-09 1 30.458848787696 27

2008-09 2 29.4227321975553 29

2008-09 3 26.4293691162022 31

2008-09 4 28.8129512517681 33

2009-10 1 28.9685075626099 35

2009-10 2 22.391564576816 37

Mean Absolute Deviation ∑(Y-Y^)/n 0.000630676408858

1) Non -Linear

Year Quarter Deseasonlised Production, Y x

2000-01 1 17.8840947010325 -37

2000-01 2 18.4973794330219 -35

2000-01 3 24.1359114656227 -33

2000-01 4 21.3565645061028 -31

2001-02 1 19.9333138855258 -29

2001-02 2 23.689626291414 -27

2001-02 3 23.6990623893218 -25

2001-02 4 22.6453227090573 -23

2002-03 1 22.82085000913 -21

2002-03 2 23.2569390532146 -19

2002-03 3 27.3030672688039 -17

2002-03 4 21.0804020340412 -15

2003-04 1 24.4043375607839 -13

2003-04 2 24.8795161964622 -11

2003-04 3 27.3030672688039 -9

2003-04 4 23.749972597304 -7

2004-05 1 24.7769228670554 -5

2004-05 2 21.3098464813176 -3

2004-05 3 24.0266991965475 -1

2004-05 4 26.6036514752747 1

2005-06 1 26.1741177655736 3

2005-06 2 26.0694061015104 5

2005-06 3 25.9925200399013 7

2005-06 4 28.905005409122 9

2006-07 1 27.6644589906596 11
 2006-07 2 28.7737013402563 13

2006-07 3 28.8320390358569 15

2006-07 4 29.9176011400148 17

2007-08 1 29.9931171548566 19

2007-08 2 29.0982167689058 21

2007-08 3 28.8320390358569 23

2007-08 4 29.2732220385375 25

2008-09 1 30.458848787696 27

2008-09 2 29.4227321975553 29

2008-09 3 26.4293691162022 31

2008-09 4 28.8129512517681 33

2009-10 1 28.9685075626099 35

2009-10 2 22.391564576816 37

Mean Absolute Deviation ∑(Y-Y^)/n -0.18295732359114

 Y^ Y-Y^
20.6139 -2.729805

20.8785 -2.381121

21.1431 2.9928115

21.4077 -0.051135

21.6723 -1.738986

21.9369 1.7527263

22.2015 1.4975624

22.4661 0.1792227

22.7307 0.09015

22.9953 0.2616391

23.2599 4.0431673

23.5245 -2.444098

23.7891 0.6152376

24.0537 0.8258162

24.3183 2.9847673

24.5829 -0.832927

24.8475 -0.070577

25.1121 -3.802254

25.3767 -1.350001

25.6413 0.9623515

25.9059 0.2682178
 26.1705 -0.101094

26.4351 -0.44258

26.6997 2.2053054

26.9643 0.700159

27.2289 1.5448013

27.4935 1.338539

27.7581 2.1595011

28.0227 1.9704172

28.2873 0.8109168

28.5519 0.280139

28.8165 0.456722

29.0811 1.3777488

29.3457 0.0770322

29.6103 -3.180931

29.8749 -1.061949

30.1395 -1.170992

30.4041 -8.012535

Y^ Y-Y^
23.060112 -5.176017

22.9578 -4.460421
22.875872 1.2600395

22.814328 -1.457763

22.773168 -2.839854

22.752392 0.9372343

22.752 0.9470624

22.771992 -0.126669

22.812368 0.008482

22.873128 0.3838111

22.954272 4.3487953

23.0558 -1.975398

23.177712 1.2266256

23.320008 1.5595082

23.482688 3.8203793

23.665752 0.0842206

23.8692 0.9077229

24.093032 -2.783186

24.337248 -0.310549

24.601848 2.0018035

24.886832 1.2872858

25.1922 0.8772061

25.517952 0.474568

25.864088 3.0409174

26.230608 1.433851
26.617512 2.1561893

27.0248 1.807239

27.452472 2.4651291

27.900528 2.0925892

28.368968 0.7292488

28.857792 -0.025753

29.367 -0.093778

29.896592 0.5622568

30.446568 -1.023836

31.016928 -4.587559

31.607672 -2.794721

32.2188 -3.250292

32.850312 -10.45875
 Deseasonalised
Production
Year Quarter Y x
2000-01 1 17.8840947010325 -37

2000-01 2 18.4973794330219 -35

2000-01 3 24.1359114656227 -33

2000-01 4 21.3565645061028 -31

2001-02 1 19.9333138855258 -29

2001-02 2 23.689626291414 -27

2001-02 3 23.6990623893218 -25

2001-02 4 22.6453227090573 -23

2002-03 1 22.82085000913 -21

2002-03 2 23.2569390532146 -19

2002-03 3 27.3030672688039 -17

2002-03 4 21.0804020340412 -15

2003-04 1 24.4043375607839 -13

2003-04 2 24.8795161964622 -11

2003-04 3 27.3030672688039 -9

2003-04 4 23.749972597304 -7

2004-05 1 24.7769228670554 -5

2004-05 2 21.3098464813176 -3

2004-05 3 24.0266991965475 -1

2004-05 4 26.6036514752747 1

2005-06 1 26.1741177655736 3
2005-06 2 26.0694061015104 5

2005-06 3 25.9925200399013 7

2005-06 4 28.905005409122 9

2006-07 1 27.6644589906596 11

2006-07 2 28.7737013402563 13

2006-07 3 28.8320390358569 15

2006-07 4 29.9176011400148 17

2007-08 1 29.9931171548566 19

2007-08 2 29.0982167689058 21

2007-08 3 28.8320390358569 23

2007-08 4 29.2732220385375 25

2008-09 1 30.458848787696 27

2008-09 2 29.4227321975553 29

2008-09 3 26.4293691162022 31

2008-09 4 28.8129512517681 33

2009-10 1 28.9685075626099 35

2009-10 2 22.391564576816 37
 Percentage Relative Cyclical Residual
Y^=a+bx of Trend(y/Y^)*100 (Y-Y^)*100/Y^
20.6139 86.757453470874 -13.242546529126

20.8785 88.5953465671474 -11.4046534328526

21.1431 114.155026772908 14.1550267729078

21.4077 99.7611350406762 -0.238864959323795

21.6723 91.975996481803 -8.024003518197

21.9369 107.98985404234 7.98985404233952

22.2015 106.74532076356 6.74532076356017

22.4661 100.797747312873 0.79774731287282

22.7307 100.396600232857 0.396600232856882

22.9953 101.137793606583 1.13779360658324

23.2599 117.382565139162 17.3825651391619

23.5245 89.6104148187684 -10.3895851812316

23.7891 102.586216211559 2.58621621155871

24.0537 103.4332189911 3.43321899109981

24.3183 112.273749681532 12.2737496815317

24.5829 96.6117610099053 -3.38823899009464

24.8475 99.7159588170054 -0.284041182994565

25.1121 84.8588787131208 -15.1411212868792

25.3767 94.6801561926785 -5.31984380732147

25.6413 103.753130595074 3.7531305950738

25.9059 101.035353975633 1.03535397563331

26.1705 99.6137104813067 -0.386289518693326

26.4351 98.3257866998851 -1.67421330011487

26.6997 108.259663625891 8.25966362589075

26.9643 102.596614748611 2.59661474861066

27.2289 105.673388716607 5.67338871660718

27.4935 104.868565427672 4.86856542767178

27.7581 107.779715254339 7.7797152543393

28.0227 107.031503584082 7.03150358408208

28.2873 102.86671675595 2.86671675594969

28.5519 100.981157246477 0.98115724647726

28.8165 101.584932377414 1.58493237741402

29.0811 104.737608920213 4.73760892021264

29.3457 100.26249909716 0.262499097159943

29.6103 89.2573500309088 -10.7426499690912

29.8749 96.4453479401372 -3.55465205986277

30.1395 96.1147582495062 -3.88524175049381

30.4041 73.6465298325422 -26.3534701674578