CO2 LEVELS (TONNES)

200,000
200,000 Total Flights (2015)
200,000

0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000

800,000
1,700,000
4,600,000

112357
400,000
700,000
1,000,000

300,000
300,000
1,100,000

600,000
700,000
1,000,000

CO2 2010 (tonnes)

52246 98015 68074 77053

3,900,000
4,700,000
4,300,000
115286

500,000
700,000
267760

800,000

AIRPORT
Airport

CO2 2030 (tonnes)

18,800,000
90790

21,400,000
18,200,000
474087

200,000
500,000
TOTAL FLIGHTS BY AIRPORT

500,000
84753

700,000
1,300,000
CO2 2050 (tonnes)
114083

900,000
CO2 LEVELS - PRESENT AND PREDICTED

2,200,000
173163

3,200,000
5,300,000
55950

300,000
300,000
500,000
168629

1,100,000
3,500,000
1,900,000
 20,000,000 Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient of ATM's/CO2
Levels during 2010
15,000,000
CO2 Levels (2010)

10,000,000

5,000,000

0
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000

-5,000,000
Total Air Transport Movements (2010)

Stanstead
Newcastle
Total Freight Movements 2005-2015
Manchester
Luton
London City
Heathrow
Glasgow
Airport

Gatwick
Edinburgh
East Midlands International (EMI)
Bristol
Birmingham
Belfast International Airport
Aberdeen
Airport (FREIGHT TONNES) Number of Movements
0 2000000 4000000 6000000 8000000 10000000 12000000 14000000 16000000 18000000
Airport Belfast East Midlands
(FREIGHT Aberdeen International Birmingham Bristol International Edinburgh Gatwick Glasgow Heathrow London City Luton Manchester Newcastle Stanstead
TONNES) Airport (EMI)
Series1 2005 4089.429 37877.55 12939.026 16.265 266569.136 29595.497 222778.305 8733.345 1305685.733 0 23108.39 147484.203 198.815 237044.874
Series2 2006 4021.608 38416.721 14681.02 32.089 272302.94 36388.778 211856.819 6288.706 1263128.855 0 17992.862 148957.395 306.263 224312.219
Series3 2007 3434.348 38428.557 13584.94 20.418 274752.845 19291.816 171077.827 4275.875 1310986.552 0 38095.441 165365.944 785.008 203746.564
Series4 2008 4005.753 36114.583 12191.896 3.241 261506.671 12417.769 107702.029 3545.696 1397053.818 0 40517.99 141780.692 1937.801 197738.177
Series5 2009 3822.213 29803.741 13069.929 0.024 255120.834 23791.486 74679.522 2333.843 1277649.665 0 28643.404 102543.314 2596.624 182810.024
Series6 2010 4210.788 29716.096 21604.93 0 273669.102 20356.872 104031.963 2913.819 1472988.06 0 28743.271 115921.983 3650.175 202238.301
Series7 2011 5310.597 31062.003 16625.714 0 264594.731 19331.675 88084.949 2429.538 1484350.863 0 27905.097 107415.311 3059.194 202592.773
Series8 2012 6166.355 29094.99 19088.151 0 264292.294 19115.015 97567.054 9497.277 1464390.254 0 29635.403 96821.819 2956.228 214159.691
Series9 2013 7101.869 29287.727 21066.548 0 266967.726 18624.248 96724.097 11836.73 1422939.305 0 29073.558 96373.207 3700.912 211952.167
Series10 2014 6278.351 30073.101 5118.69 0 277412.586 19369.09 88508.453 15410.756 1498905.757 27.768 27414.298 93465.982 4450.404 204724.904
Series11 2015 6545.455 30388.689 7163.843 0.226 291688.569 19322.006 73371.135 13192.821 1496550.973 23.945 28007.811 100020.656 3717.123 207996.35

Series1 Series2 Series3 Series4 Series5 Series6 Series7 Series8 Series9 Series10 Series11
Year Commercial flights Cargo tonnage
1990 322052 328486
1990 378136 335270
1990 403833 340224
1990 337364 364582
1991 295982 301259
1991 355813 315690
1991 402686 324653
1991 352348 361922
1992 337869 335578
1992 396504 350504
1992 425577 353882
1992 353725 383786
1993 338910 354904
1993 401857 376611
1993 439682 401446
1993 370895 443161
1994 337257 400988
1994 398551 432833
1994 437153 446425
1994 374164 481327
1995 356560 449425
1995 415939 468817
1995 450676 464037
1995 388535 500254
1996 376715 467044
1996 433190 488078
1996 469056 484693
1996 409048 532093
1997 389403 498610
1997 453662 526821
1997 483497 538617
1997 431019 595541
1998 413568 547262
1998 476278 567958
1998 516424 572221
1998 456590 609252
1999 431767 556730
1999 497964 575808
1999 540561 611218
1999 476453 666200
2000 465055 610513
2000 518258 627411
2000 562873 641460
2000 494758 673370
2001 476662 607443
2001 543437 604364
2001 ` 565772
2001 485555 596618
2002 461507 566710
2002 530715 595080
2002 571627 601050
2002 511062 635375
2003 486486 585056
2003 539273 592679
2003 587190 574843
2003 521706 646850
2004 512716 617541
2004 574926 645680
2004 616641 643708
2004 550523 697205
2005 534318 617644
2005 615050 645978
2005 657183 633279
2005 573116 689719
2006 556588 626691
2006 625994 630922
2006 662918 623250
2006 581711 636173
2007 565860 602727
2007 635900 627902
2007 674150 639077
2007 587447 675947
2008 560886 638543
2008 640084 650829
2008 665575 630516
2008 547684 611132
2009 506352 521588
2009 576240 532602
2009 611225 573746
2009 508542 641183
2010 472756 611674
2010 519094 619351
2010 601921 657747
2010 485571 654688
2011 479327 622063
2011 558269 633193
2011 596099 626262
2011 493422 649161
2012 471515 619651
2012 553160 630692
2012 583586 636285
2012 485655 652313
2013 453229 600553
2013 559508 614195
2013 596303 612230
2013 496985 654332
2014 457825 603141
2014 560890 620192
2014 599028 625871
2014 502459 670816
2015 471273 614329
2015 568914 615756
2015 611306 615867
 Introduction: The introduction provides a brief summary of and rationale for how data
were analyzed. It describes the organization of the chapter according to research
questions, conceptual framework, or thematic categories.

This section focuses on the data collected and the interpretation of said data. The results below
will have been tabulated or inputted into a graph format. The secondary data was collected
from the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) website. No prior arrangements from the CAA was
needed as the information is available publicly. A secondary analysis of 2 case studies from
Heathrow Airport and Manchester Airport have been conducted, as well as other journals and
books all of which have contributed towards the final analysis. Microsoft Excel was the
program of choice in order to transform the information into the appropriate tables and graphs.

The initial data drawn from the CAA website was a comparative list of all air traffic
movements from 2005-2015. The airports chosen were as follows; Aberdeen, Birmingham,
Bristol, East Midlands Airport, Edinburgh, Gatwick, Glasgow, Heathrow, London City,
Luton, Manchester, Newcastle, and Stanstead all of which are a comparative for Belfast
International Airport. Belfast International is of course a vastly different airport, not only
based on size, but operations. The airport itself runs on a 24 hour basis, so there is no down-
time, yet has a significantly lower throughput than the other airports used in the study.
 (BELFAST INT. SURROUNDING AREA?)

Focusing on the initial research questions of how does global warming affect the air freight
industry (also taking into account the fact that 66.6% of all air freight is carried in the
underbelly of passenger aircrafts). In order to give an accurate comparison and analysis of the
results, background information must be explained first. Using Appendix 1, which outlines
the total number of air transport movements (ATMs), along with the carbon dioxide levels for
each airport in 2010, with the 2030 and 2050 predictions. The primary focus for these
particular figures was to give an insight into

Airport (ATMs) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CO2 2010 (tonnes) CO2 2030 (tonnes) CO2 2050 (tonnes)
Aberdeen 89480 97863 102835 100169 94386 87950 94796 98783 99887 106143 95687 200,000 200,000 200,000
Belfast International Airport 47695 48212 51805 53631 44060 39230 37308 39120 36596 34795 36273 736,347 4,880,200 488,200
Birmingham 112963 108658 104481 102856 93936 84790 83826 84062 84851 89056 89837 800,000 1,700,000 4,600,000
Bristol 61311 65825 58741 60068 53796 53788 52670 50654 53966 52574 54741 400,000 700,000 1,000,000
East Midlands International (EMI) 53811 56305 61496 66111 57410 52108 54413 54643 57043 57197 56378 300,000 300,000 1,100,000
Edinburgh 115959 115846 115190 113535 106477 100584 105118 102884 103828 101407 107211 600,000 700,000 1,000,000
Gatwick 251953 254414 258921 256352 245377 233553 244570 240447 244301 254540 262571 3,900,000 4,700,000 4,300,000
Glasgow 96555 96754 93668 86647 74051 68871 69932 72287 72506 74036 80322 500,000 700,000 800,000
Heathrow 472041 470891 475789 473207 460178 449271 476295 471382 469565 470708 472060 18,800,000 21,400,000 18,200,000
London City 60693 66129 77274 84074 66907 59919 61064 64310 68118 70133 79251 200,000 500,000 500,000
Luton 75424 78840 83319 85661 75094 68571 72138 71725 70889 75616 87440 700,000 1,300,000 900,000
Manchester 217987 213026 206503 191228 162126 148876 158025 160473 161050 162919 164710 2,200,000 3,200,000 5,300,000
Newcastle 55494 58053 58395 54706 49798 46970 44646 43660 42974 42873 42070 300,000 300,000 500,000
Stanstead 178012 189995 191522 177285 155985 142993 136899 131297 131925 143101 154478 1,100,000 3,500,000 1,900,000

AIR TRAFFIC MOVEMENTS & EMISSION LEVELS

The data for air traffic movements shows a comparison of the selected UK airports from 2005-
2015, coupled with the carbon dioxide levels for each airport in 2010, and the projected levels
at 2030, and 2050 respectively. The emission levels for Belfast International had to be
calculated, as they do not publicly display any data regarding this. The calculation was made
using all airports excluding Belfast International Airport as a base model. The calculations are
as follows;

230,7692
= 18.77 2 ()
122,941

Equation 1

The top value (2,307,692) represents the average carbon dioxide emissions for all UK airports
in 2010, and the bottom value (122,941) represents the average number of air traffic
movements for all airports in 2010. The resulting equation showed that there were 18.77
tonnes of carbon dioxide per air traffic movement. The following calculation was then applied
to show Belfast Internationals carbon dioxide emissions for 2010, and projections for 2030
and 2050.

18.77 39,230 = 736,347.1 2 () 2010.

Equation 2

18.77 representing the result of the previous equation, multiplied by the total air traffic
movements at Belfast International during 2010, gave a total of 736,347.1 tonnes of carbon
dioxide in 2010.

In order to then calculate the projections for Belfast International for 2030 and 2050, the air
traffic movements had to be drawn from the Department for Transports (DfT) UK Aviation
Forecasts publication (2013). The DfT estimated that Belfast Internationals air traffic
movements for 2030 would be 260,000, and the same for 2050. Using the same calculation, it
was then possible to determine the carbon dioxide projections.
 18.77 260,000 = 4,880,200 2 ()

Equation 3

Using the original figure from equation 1, and multiplying that by the total number of
projected air traffic movements for both 2030, and 2050 (DfT) it was calculated that 4,880,200
tonnes of carbon dioxide will be emitted from Belfast International Airport.

Looking back to the literature review, it was stated that 2/3 (66.66%) of all air freight was
held in the underbelly of commercial aircrafts, therefore, it is necessary to also produce a
figure to reflect exactly that.

734,347.1 0.66 = 485,989 2 ()

Equation 4

4,880,200 0.66 = 3,220,932 2 ()

Equation 5

Equation 4 and 5 show the total number of projected tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions for
Belfast International at 2030 and 2050.

Findings build logically from the problem, research questions, and design.

Findings are presented in clear narrative form using plentiful verbatim quotes, and
thick description. Narrative data are connected and synthesized through substantive
explanatory text and visual displays, if applicable, not simply compiled. Some tables and
figures may be deferred to the appendices.
 Headings are used to guide the reader through the findings according to research
questions, themes, or other appropriate organizational schemes.
200 200 200 200 200 201 201 201 201 201 201 CO2 2010 CO2 2030 CO2 2050
Airport (ATMs)
5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 (tonnes) (tonnes) (tonnes)
894 978 102 100 943 879 947 987 998 106 956
Aberdeen 200,000 200,000 200,000
80 63 835 169 86 50 96 83 87 143 87
Belfast International 476 482 518 536 440 392 373 391 365 347 362
736347 0 0
Airport 95 12 05 31 60 30 08 20 96 95 73
112 108 104 102 939 847 838 840 848 890 898
Birmingham 800,000 1,700,000 4,600,000
963 658 481 856 36 90 26 62 51 56 37
613 658 587 600 537 537 526 506 539 525 547
Bristol 400,000 700,000 1,000,000
11 25 41 68 96 88 70 54 66 74 41
East Midlands 538 563 614 661 574 521 544 546 570 571 563
300,000 300,000 1,100,000
International (EMI) 11 05 96 11 10 08 13 43 43 97 78
115 115 115 113 106 100 105 102 103 101 107
Edinburgh 600,000 700,000 1,000,000
959 846 190 535 477 584 118 884 828 407 211
251 254 258 256 245 233 244 240 244 254 262
Gatwick 3,900,000 4,700,000 4,300,000
953 414 921 352 377 553 570 447 301 540 571
965 967 936 866 740 688 699 722 725 740 803
Glasgow 500,000 700,000 800,000
55 54 68 47 51 71 32 87 06 36 22
472 470 475 473 460 449 476 471 469 470 472
Heathrow 18,800,000 21,400,000 18,200,000
041 891 789 207 178 271 295 382 565 708 060
606 661 772 840 669 599 610 643 681 701 792
London City 200,000 500,000 500,000
93 29 74 74 07 19 64 10 18 33 51
754 788 833 856 750 685 721 717 708 756 874
Luton 700,000 1,300,000 900,000
24 40 19 61 94 71 38 25 89 16 40
217 213 206 191 162 148 158 160 161 162 164
Manchester 2,200,000 3,200,000 5,300,000
987 026 503 228 126 876 025 473 050 919 710
554 580 583 547 497 469 446 436 429 428 420
Newcastle 300,000 300,000 500,000
94 53 95 06 98 70 46 60 74 73 70
178 189 191 177 155 142 136 131 131 143 154
Stanstead 1,100,000 3,500,000 1,900,000
012 995 522 285 985 993 899 297 925 101 478

Inconsistent, discrepant, or unexpected data are noted with discussion of possible

alternative explanations.

Summary: This section explains in summary form what the chapter has identified, and also
prepares the reader for the chapters to follow, by offering some foreshadowing as to the intent
and content of the final two chapters.
Appendix 1.