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Argus Global LNG APRIL 07
Argus Global LNG APRIL 07
M O N T H L Y LNG MARKETS, PROJECTS AND INFRASTRUCTURE VOLUME III, ISSUE 4, APRIL 2007
start-up, says Khelil. Others involved in and a consortium of South Africa’s state- 5
Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr Jul Oct Jan 07
the project predict worse delays. owned PetroSA, Norway’s Statoil and Spain: LNG vs electricity $/mn Btu
Anglo-Australian BHP Billiton. Spanish LNG vs electricity $/mn Btu
Skikda delay The nascent GTL industry has been hit 25
LNG project at Skikda is also running two ExxonMobil abandoned its 154,000 b/d 15
Month ahead electricity
10
years behind schedule, Khelil says. Palm GTL project in Qatar amid escalating LNG
5
The confidence of potential investors costs (AGL, March, p18).
0
in Algeria may have been rattled by the The major cancelled what would have Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr Jul Oct Jan 07
escalation of fighting between govern- been the world’s largest GTL plant after US LNG vs Henry Hub $/mn Btu
ment forces and Islamic insurgents, the promise of cheap gas feedstock and US LNG vs Henry Hub $/mn Btu
which culminated with the 11 April bomb- economies of scale evaporated, and the 14
Henry Hub
ing of prime minister Abd al-Aziz budget for the development soared from 12
LNG
Belkhadem’s office, claiming the lives of the original $7bn in 2004 to around 10
As well as LNG, changes to Algeria’s Qatar has seen costs hit $18bn from its 6
4
hydrocarbon law have deterred foreign original budget of $5bn. Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr Jul Oct Jan 07
‘Gas prices should at least equal oil — that is to say $60/bl oil equals at least
$10/mn Btu gas’ — Algerian minister Chakib Khelil at ‘gas Opec’ meeting (p3)
Contents
Global Asia-Pacific Markets
Gas producers bid for market power 3 Japan’s utilities plan big LNG growth 8 Market overview 22
Thai project mulls import sharing 11 European pipeline markets 24
Europe/Africa Itochu joins Namibia project 18 US pipeline markets 25
UK mulls data release rule change 4 Japan, China boost co-operation 18 Competing fuels markets 26
GdF offers Gazprom access to Canada 4 Majors boost Australian acreage 19 LNG fleet news 28
Italian firms mull Calabria terminal 5 Marubeni signs Qatar deal 19 Shipping netbacks 29
BG’s Brindisi on the brink 5 Spark spreads 30
Gazprom sets sights on US 6 In brief Global LNG import volumes 31
Shtokman scenario changes again 7 Libya targets Ras Lanuf hub 18 LNG movements 32
GdF gives way on LNG strike 7 Qatar tops majors’ investment plans 18
Endesa outlines gas targets 10 LionGas terminal to fuel CCGT 18 Data and prices
UK gas grid firm declares force majeure 10 LNG key to Europe’s supply balance 19 Global LNG import prices 23
Technip frontrunner in Nigeria 13 Snohvit on schedule 19 European pipeline prices 24
Qatargas not worried by UK surplus 19 Pipeline spot markets 25
Mideast Gulf Okinawa utilities mull UK imports 19 Oil, product, coal and power prices 26
Gas producers seek greater power 3 Saibu Gas renews LNG contract 19 Shipping order book 28
Iran nurses LNG ambitions 11 Tohoku boosts LNG volumes from NWS 19 LNG netbacks 29
Qatar not worried by UK surplus 19 MapleLNG gets green light 20 International spark spreads 30
Oil link in gas contracts set to persist 20
Americas Kogas nets US Gulf LNG terminal 20
Company profile:
US majors set for LNG boom 9 US key to Gazprom growth 6
Chevron ditches Mexican plan 13 Company news Cheniere upbeat on prospects 16
Chilean LNG plan in the balance 14 BG’s Brindisi on the brink 5
Trinidad’s train X on track 15 Gazprom sets sights on US 6 Country profile:
Chile mining titans weigh floating LNG 15 GdF gives way on LNG strike 7 Japan’s utilities mull LNG power 8
Petrobras speeds up Gazprom deal 17 US majors set for LNG boom 9
Iran nurses LNG ambitions 11
Kogas nets Gulf coast terminal 20 Technip frontrunner in Nigeria 13
Commercial manager: Barbara Kalu Kleshchevnikov, Galina Kuznetsova, Alexei Morshchagin, Svetlana
Argus Global LNG Editor in chief: Ian Bourne Novolodskaya, Viktor Parno, Kirill Portnov, Pavel Scheglov, Anna
is published by Executive editor: Euan Craik Tkachenko, Oksana Yablokova
Argus Media Ltd Beijing: James Cockayne, Gao Hua, William Wang Berlin: Chloe
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Chairman: JA Nasmyth Moscow: Alexander Yershov (bureau chief), Natalia Bortsova, (Print) ISSN 1746-44013
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mail) ISSN 1746-44005
Business development: Peter Caddy, Jim Nicholson (Europe, Peter Geltischev, Anastasia Goreva, Mikhail Gulyaev, Rauf Published monthly
Middle East, Asia-Pacific), Daniel Massey, Miles Weigel (Americas) Guseinov, Andrei Karabyants, Oleg Kirsanov, Dmitri Copyright © 2007 Argus Media Ltd
Texas, and Sabine Pass, Louisiana — has full permits for two
1. Pelican Island (BP)
others, and is discussing long-term LNG supplies. 2. Vista del Sol (ExxonMobil)
3. Golden Pass (ExxonMobil)
“The fundamentals are that US production is falling. Gas 4. Crown Landing (BP) 4
from the deep offshore and non-conventional gas costs at least 5. Lake Charles (Trunkline)
6. Cameron LNG (Sempra)
$6/mn Btu to produce, Canada is exporting less as its own 7. Creole Trail (Cheniere)
8. Sabine Pass (Cheniere)
needs grow and US demand is rising by 2pc/yr,” executive 9. Port Arthur (Sempra)
10. Freeport (Freeport LNG)
director of Cheniere LNG Jean Abiteboul tells Argus. “Only LNG
can fill the gap.”
By 2010, US terminal capacity will be 150bn m³/yr, with the 5
3
addition of Baja California, Cameron, Golden Pass, Freeport 6 7
1 8 9
and Sabine Pass to the four existing onshore terminals and US 10
2
firm Excelerate’s offshore capacity. “The load factor could be Gu lf of Me xi co
close to 70pc,” Abiteboul says, “better than elsewhere and a ME X IC O
good reason to send available LNG to the US, especially when
you look at the forward price curve. This means a significant
spot market.” Cheniere, he adds, will be well placed to benefit. The 26bn m³/yr Corpus Christi terminal in Texas and the
33bn m³/yr Creole Trail in Louisiana have been given all the
Constructive expansion necessary permits and front-end engineering and design
The 15bn m³/yr Freeport terminal, in which Cheniere has (Feed) has been carried out for Corpus Christi. But the final
retained 30pc, will be operational in the first quarter of 2008. decision on starting construction depends on commercial and
Take-or-pay terminal use agreements have been signed with financial conditions.
ConocoPhillips for 10bn m³/yr and with chemical firm Dow for Cheniere in March said it is seeking up to 5bn m³/yr starting
5bn m³/yr for 20 years, with the possibility of an extension. in 2008 and 10bn m³/yr in 2009, and would “contemplate con-
The 26bn m³/yr phase 1 of the Sabine Pass terminal, wholly struction of the next terminal when 10bn m³/yr is achieved”. And
owned by Cheniere, will be operational in the second quarter of it “will hold 10bn m³/yr of receiving capacity for spot and short
2008. An extension, already under construction, will bring total term”. Cheniere has permits for pipelines to transport the gas
capacity to 40bn m³/yr by the second quarter of 2009. Of this from its LNG terminals to major interstate pipelines serving the
capacity, 10bn m³/yr has been reserved by Total and another country’s main consumption areas.
10bn m³/yr by Chevron. Cheniere will keep the remaining 20bn It has a charter for two LNG carriers in the 150,000m³ range
m³/yr. The company is in preliminary discussions for long-term with Japan’s K Line. And it is considering gas production “as an
supply contracts, but will initially buy spot, Abiteboul says. eventual possibility,” Abiteboul says.
Itochu joins Namibia LNG project China’s state-owned CNPC. The pact Libya targets Ras Lanuf hub
Japanese trading house Itochu will covers joint LNG transportation, as well as Libya wants to transform its Ras Lanuf
acquire 20pc of the Kudu natural gas field the joint management and co-use of LNG export terminal into a downstream hub for
located off the west coast of Namibia in storage facilities. Nippon Oil is a relatively oil and gas, and “a centre of oil invest-
the hope of participating in the country’s new entrant to Japan’s LNG market but is ment”, head of state-owned NOC Shukri
first LNG development project and secur- rapidly expanding its overseas upstream Ghanem tells Argus. New plans for the
ing exports to Japan. The company will production through projects such as hub could include projects by Shell, which
buy the stake for more than ¥10bn Indonesia’s Tangguh and Malaysia’s Tiga is exploring for gas to supply an LNG pro-
($85mn) from UK-based Tullow Oil. Tullow and domestic LNG terminal investment ject, at the same time as it revamps the
took over the Kudu project from original (AGL, March, p4). The two firms are to dis- ageing Marsa el-Brega LNG plant. BP is
operator Shell, which withdrew in 2002 cuss details of the co-operation in the discussing a cluster of offshore and
after failing to locate enough reserves to near future. In a separate deal, Japanese onshore fields, says Ghanem. These
justify a large LNG project. Itochu says it trading house Mitsui has signed an initial could form the basis of an integrated LNG
expects the project’s new appraisal — to agreement on spot LNG trading with project similar to Shell’s venture. Gas is a
be conducted in May this year — to show China’s state-owned CNOOC. The deal new upstream focus for Libya. Its fourth
potential reserves of more than 5 trillion between Mitsui’s UK unit and CNOOC is Epsa-4 upstream bidding round will con-
ft³ (141bn m³). If this estimate is accurate, expected to allow the two sides to enact centrate “more on gas-prone areas”, says
it would lead to the realisation of speedy LNG transactions when the need Ghanem. “We have a lot of potential in
Namibia’s first LNG project. for spot volumes arises in the future. gas. We will choose 10-15 areas and put
These agreements were signed at an them to tender” as soon as the third quar-
Japan, China boost LNG co-operation energy industry seminar held in Tokyo on ter, he says. Libya has transformed itself
Japanese and Chinese firms have signed 12 April, where Japanese energy busi- into an exploration hot spot since US
LNG co-operation pacts, taking a cue ness heads met a Chinese delegation led sanctions were lifted in 2004.
from improving diplomatic ties between by Chinese premier Wen Jiabao and the
the two countries, symbolised by the first head of China’s key economic planning LionGas terminal to fuel new CCGT
visit of a Chinese premier to Japan in body the NDRC, Ma Kai. During the visit, Dutch independent 4Gas has agreed to
almost seven years. Japan’s leading oil Japanese premier Shinzo Abe and Wen supply the new Enecogen power plant
refiner, Nippon Oil, has signed a long-term agreed to build up a strategic partnership with gas from its proposed LionGas LNG
strategic energy co-operation pact with in energy security. terminal in Rotterdam. The 840MW
Enecogen power plant is expected to
source all of its gas from the nearby LNG
Qatar tops majors’ investment plans facility once the phases of the terminal
Shell expects its projects in Qatar until owned QP’s finance manager, are operational in 2010 and 2011 respec-
2012 to be the largest single national Abdulrahman Al-Shaibi. tively. Enecogen says the plant has
destination for the company’s expendi- Qatargas 4 is due to export all of its received all the necessary permits from
ture over that period, having already 7.8mn t/yr of output to the US. Permit the Dutch authorities, with a final deci-
handed out $10bn in contracts, says the problems over US greenfield LNG termi- sion on the plant’s construction expected
company’s gas chief Linda Cook. It will nals will not create a supply bottleneck, to be taken in the second quarter of this
be investing in the 140,000 b/d Pearl Cook says. year. The Enecogen project is a joint ven-
gas-to-liquids plant and the 7.8mn t/yr “There are some questions being ture between Dutch energy firm Eneco
Qatargas 4 facility, which could poten- raised over the building of terminals,” Energie and UK generation company
tially account for 44pc of the company’s Cook tells Argus. “There is no doubt that International Power. The plant has the
plans to nearly double its operated LNG some LNG import terminals are finding it potential to meet up to 5pc of total Dutch
capacity to 17.5mn-18.2mn t/yr by the hard to get the necessary permits but I electricity demand, although the facility
end of 2010. do not think that is the bottleneck in the will not provide base-load power supply,
Shell’s planned expenditure puts it in LNG sector right now. It is more the sup- according to a spokesman. Enecogen
line with ExxonMobil’s investments in ply side actually, we are finding the and LionGas have agreed to co-operate
Qatar, with its Rasgas 5,6 and 7 and demand increase is going quite apace. in other areas, including building water
Qatargas 2 projects aiming for a com- It is the supply that has the challenge in inlet and outlet infrastructure, establish-
bined output of 35.9mn t/yr by 2009. keeping pace with that.” ing a joint connection to the gas trans-
Qatar expects to more than double Cook says increasing LNG demand port network, the direct supply of elec-
its current LNG production from 31mn will spur gas production by the majors. tricity from the plant to the LNG terminal,
t/yr to 77mn t/yr by 2010. It expects 2006 “There will have to be an increase in the the use of residual heat from the power
profits of $25bn from revenues of $32bn, production of gas as opposed to oil with plant to heat LNG and the use of the ter-
with LNG exports up to 25mn t/yr from demand going the way it is, and in par- minal by Eneco Energie. Construction of
22.9mn t/yr in 2005, says Qatar’s state- ticular for LNG, I think,” she says. the LionGas LNG terminal is scheduled
to begin in mid-2007, with the terminal
Contract watch
z Japanese trading house Marubeni with two 140,000m³ LNG tanks and a more than the 357,000 t/yr agreed
has signed an initial basic agreement berth capable of receiving a 130,000m³ under the existing contract in recent
with Qatar’s state-owned QP to take a vessel. The company is seeking to years in order to accommodate rising
stake in the Qatargas 4 project, allowing import 300,000-400,000 t/yr of LNG demand in the southern Kyushu region
it to take around 1mn t/yr of LNG. QP beginning in 2010 in order to supply the (AGL, January, p6).
owns 70pc of the 7.8mn t/yr project and first two 250MW units, scheduled for
Shell owns 30pc of the project, which is start-up in November of that year and in z Japanese power utility Tohoku
scheduled to begin LNG supplies in May 2011 respectively. Two more Electric Power has signed an initial
2010. According to Marubeni, the part- 250MW units will be added by 2020. agreement to more than double its LNG
ners have yet to agree on the size of the The power utility’s plan to develop LNG import purchase from Australia’s North
stake to be taken by the Japanese firm import infrastructure has coincided West Shelf (NWS), beginning in 2010.
and details of the LNG supply terms. Okinawa Gas’ plan to switch from Tohoku has been importing up to
But QP says the LNG will be destined propane to LNG for its piped gas sales. 450,000 t/yr of LNG fob NWS under its
for Japan in one of the super large LNG Okinawa Gas plans to begin the LNG existing contract running from 2005 to
vessels known as a Q-flex. Marubeni is switch in 2013, receiving less than 2019. The contract revision will allow
already a 2.5pc shareholder in the 30,000 t/yr of LNG from Okinawa Tohoku to receive 1mn t/yr of LNG ex-
9.5mn t/yr Qatargas 1 project. Electric Power. ship in 2010-19. With the increased vol-
ume, Tohoku is aiming to replace part of
z Utilities in Okinawa are discussing z Fukuoka-based regional gas utility the 830,000 t/yr imported under its con-
joint LNG imports beginning in 2010. Saibu Gas has renewed its existing LNG tract with Indonesia that is due to expire
Okinawa Electric Power, the power util- import contract with Malaysia’s state- in 2009. This adds to the 420,000 t/yr to
ity on Japan’s southernmost prefecture owned Petronas subsidiary, Malaysia be imported from 2010 under a 20-year
of Okinawa, is constructing its first LNG- LNG, by another 15 years. Under the contract signed with Russia’s Sakhalin
fired combined-cycle power plant in new 15-year deal, Saibu will receive up 2 (AGL, January, p12). It has recently
Yoshinoura, on the southeastern coast to 390,000 t/yr of LNG ex-ship begin- signed a contract to receive 120,000 t/yr
of Okinawa’s main island (see p8). The ning in October 2013. Saibu was aiming from Indonesia’s Tangguh for 15 years,
plant will be equipped with Okinawa’s to increase the volume of the contract which is also scheduled to begin in
first LNG import terminal — installed from Malaysia as it has been importing 2010 (AGL, December, p3).
expected to have a regasification increasingly flow to the US and Asia- growing gas reserves. A record 52 bids
capacity of 9bn m³/yr in its first phase. Pacific. After 2012, the supply situation for 20 of the 22 blocks on offer were
The project’s second phase is expected changes and the market will rebalance, received, which Canberra says reinforces
to double throughput capacity at the Granli says. Australia’s upstream as being low risk
LNG terminal, but no details of the and highly prospective. The three majors
timescale are available. Snohvit on schedule have added three more permits in the
Norway’s Statoil is “optimistic” that its Exmouth plateau in the Carnarvon basin,
LNG key to balancing Europe’s supply Snohvit LNG project in the Barents Sea home to Chevron’s proposed Greater
LNG is a key “response mechanism” to will start up in the third quarter of this year, Gorgon LNG project with Shell and
managing Europe’s looming gas supply with commercial operations beginning in ExxonMobil, as well as the existing North
overhang in 2007-12, vice-president for the fourth quarter, says Statoil LNG chief West Shelf LNG development.
LNG at Norway’s Statoil, Otto Granli, told Otto Granli. The company aims to double
the Flame conference in Amsterdam last its European gas sales from 25bn m³/yr Qatargas not worried by UK surplus
month. In the longer term, Europe’s to 50bn m³/yr by 2015. Total production Qatargas is not worried that the
declining indigenous production and ris- from the Norwegian continental shelf is Qatargas-ExxonMobil 10.7bn m³/yr South
ing demand will mean a greater reliance set to rise to 120bn-130bn m³/yr in 2007- Hook LNG terminal in Wales will be over-
on gas imports, but supplies in the next 15, says Granli.
five years are relatively abundant, he Announcement
says. LNG cargoes can be diverted to Majors add to Australian acreage Argus Global LNG data are now available in a
other markets, so “LNG is an important The Australian federal government has csv format, allowing their use for analysis, mod-
contributor to a balanced market and will awarded another 12 offshore permits in elling and other business purposes. The data,
help prevent a depressed market,” says its latest release of upstream acreage, much of which is exclusive to Argus, are sent as
monthly updates.
Granli. LNG is drawn to the highest- with majors Chevron, Shell and
For more information, contact:
priced market, Granli says. With relatively ExxonMobil continuing to flock to the
info@argusmediagroup.com
low European prices, cargoes will region to try and add to their rapidly
supplied, Qatargas marketing director Russian investment firm Sun Group. The Kogas to operate Gulf LNG terminal
Alaa Abu Jubara told an Amsterdam con- terminal will initially have three storage Gulf Coast LNG Partners, the developer
ference last month. “We are committed to tanks with a total capacity of 5.7mn ft³ of the Calhoun LNG terminal located on
bringing gas to the UK from next year,” (161,000m³) and will be able to transport the US Gulf of Mexico, announced on 23
Abu Jubara says, adding that Qatargas up to 1bn ft³/d. The terminal may expand March that Korea’s Kogas, Houston-
does not think that there will be over- its total transport capacity to 2bn ft³/d based EMS, and LG, a Korean conglom-
supply in Europe. “We did a lot of study and three more storage tanks may be erate, have agreed to become the termi-
into the supply and demand situation, added at a later stage. The facility will nal operators and assume an equity
and we think that the declining [indige- accommodate carriers of up to 8.8mn ft³. stake in the project. Kogas brings signif-
nous] production will have an impact,” MapleLNG will file for construction per- icant clout as it is the world’s largest LNG
Abu Jubara says. The South Hook termi- mits with the Novia Scotia government in importer and terminal operator. It imports
nal is designed to process 15.6mn t/yr of May. Additionally, the planned terminal over 23mn t/yr and is planning its fourth
LNG and its first train is set to come on must undergo a federal environmental domestic terminal. LG is involved with
line in early 2008. Deliveries to the termi- assessment and the Technical Review terminal engineering and construction,
nal will come from the 7.8mn t/yr first train Process of Marine Terminal Systems and and EMS has experience in managing
at the Qatargas 2 project. Transshipment Sites to assess ship pipeline systems in the Gulf region. A
safety and port security. The facility is number of terminals proposed in the US
MapleLNG gets go-ahead expected to enter service by 2010. “We east and west coasts have encountered
Canada’s MapleLNG project announced have the ability to market upstream and significant public opposition rising from
on 15 March that the Novia Scotia gov- downstream, a strategic advantage in safety and environmental concerns.
ernment has granted environmental the LNG marketplace with suppliers Developers have had more success in
approval for an LNG receiving and seeking access to the premium value the Gulf region, which has traditionally
regasification terminal planned for natural gas markets afforded in north- been more welcoming towards energy
Goldboro, Novia Scotia, adjacent to the eastern US and Canada,” says infrastructure projects (see p16). “We are
Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline, which MapleLNG general manager, Derek very excited about the Calhoun LNG ter-
serves markets in eastern Canada and Owen. According to the developers, the minal project because of its proximity
the US northeast. MapleLNG is a joint terminal is strategically placed to receive and access to significant markets,
venture between Rotterdam-based inde- LNG cargoes from locations throughout remote location inside of a petrochemi-
pendent LNG terminal developer 4Gas the Atlantic basin, including north Africa, cal port, and tremendous public sup-
and Suntera — a joint venture between Nigeria, Russia and Norway, as well as port,” says Kogas executive vice-presi-
Russian oil and gas company Itera and a from the Middle East. dent June-Sun Kil.
Company news
z Tokyo Gas has been discussing with ninth addition to its LNG fleet. According z Japan’s largest gas utility, Tokyo Gas,
port and coastal authorities the possible to Tokyo Gas, it has developed a has appointed vice-chairman Norio
future introduction of LNG vessels larger 177,000m³ LNG carrier — larger than the Ichino as the new chairman of the com-
than 200,000m³ — known as Qatarmax conventional 145,000-153,000m³ ships pany, where he will be replacing
and Qatarflex — into its three LNG — jointly with Japanese shipbuilders Hideharu Uehara. The appointment will
receiving terminals of Sodegaura, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and take effect on 1 April. Tokyo Gas will
Ohgishima and Negishi in Tokyo bay. Kawasaki Shipbuilding. The larger carrier leave the position of vice-chairman
“We are at a stage prior to beginning the is a maximum size that can still use the vacant. Uehara will step down to a posi-
actual revamp of our terminals in order to existing berths at LNG terminals in Japan tion of director-consultant.
accommodate ships as large as and supplier countries without much
210,000m³ or 260,000m³,” a Tokyo Gas additional investment for refitting. Tokyo z Shell says it will pay $353mn to non-
spokesman says, although the company Gas plans to expand its own LNG fleet to US investors “without admitting any
still did not know when it would begin the seven by fiscal year 2010-11 — which wrongdoing” over its 2004 reserves
project. This follows an earlier move by runs from April to March — and eventu- scandal, as well as an extra $6mn in
Chubu Electric Power, the country’s ally to nine afterwards (AGL, August, costs. The company will distribute
largest importer of Qatari LNG, to pro- p19). The company is expected to place $200mn to its US investors, of which
ceed with refitting the receiving berths at orders by the end of 2007 for the two $120mn is held by the Securities and
its Kawagoe and Chita terminals by 2010 new ships, which will be used to trans- Exchange Commission, along with
(AGL, January, p5). As domestic demand port LNG primarily from Australia’s $80mn in new monies. The major has
rises to boost LNG imports, Tokyo Gas is Darwin and Russia’s Sakhalin island, as also secured the C$8.7bn ($7.6bn) buy-
also planning to build larger-than-con- well as for spot requirements under ship- out of the 22pc of outstanding shares in
ventional LNG carriers as the eighth and ping alliances (AGL, January, p10). its subsidiary Shell Canada.
LNG on the cards for PNG Spain orders new vessels unrest, but Total says damage to the plant
Impetus is building towards an LNG pro- A 50:50 consortium between Spanish is superficial and work is “continuing
duction project in Papua New Guinea producers Repsol-YPF and Gas Natural under normal conditions”. The first train of
(PNG), with ExxonMobil to lead a has ordered three new LNG carriers. The the 6.7mn t/yr plant is due on stream at
feasibility study for a venture based on its 173,000m³ diesel-electric vessels, the end of next year. Total says it “regrets
Hides gas field. ExxonMobil and its ordered with Spain’s Naviera Elcano and the incident and is co-operating with an
partners are looking at a 5mn-6.5mn t/yr Norwegian shipper Knutsen Shipping, will investigation by Yemeni authorities”.
LNG plant, targeting first cargoes by operate from 2010 on the Peru LNG pro-
2012-13. Project partner Oil Search provi- ject. The new ships will boost the joint Shell chief stays on
sionally estimates the project cost at venture’s fleet of 11 tankers to 16 vessels Shell chief Jeroen van der Veer is extend-
$6bn-7bn. The study is scheduled to be of 35,000-173,000m³, following two fur- ing his tenure until the end of June 2009,
finished by the end of this year. An LNG ther deliveries of a newly built ship this allowing the major more time to bring on a
option for the Hides field follows aban- December and another, already opera- new generation of potential leaders. Van
donment of a proposed pipeline project tional, at the beginning of 2009. der Veer will be 60 in October, but the firm
linking PNG to Australia. ended mandatory retirement ages for
Yemen LNG plant survives riot senior executives at the unification of
Eni buys into Angola LNG Total’s $3.7bn Yemen LNG plant was the Royal Dutch and Shell, avoiding the con-
Italian state-controlled oil and gas firm scene of a riot by Yemeni workers after a troversy that preceded BP chief John
Eni has signed an initial agreement to French worker at the site was alleged to Browne’s retirement announcement. Van
take a 13.6pc stake in the Angola LNG have thrown a copy of the Koran to the der Veer’s decision will provide “valuable
project, which entails the development of floor during an argument. A helicopter and continuity and leadership in Shell over the
a $4bn, 5mn t/yr liquefaction plant at several vehicles were destroyed in the next years”, chairman Jorma Ollila says.
Soyo, located 300km north of Luanda.
LNG from the plant is set to be exported Argus European Natural Gas
to the US Gulf coast, where Eni is acquir-
Argus European Natural Gas is essential reading for gas traders, providing
ing 5bn m³/yr of capacity in the
sophisticated analysis of price movements on the European wholesale
Pascagoula terminal. When the deal goes
markets. The daily report includes prices for all standard spot contracts at
to completion, the new shareholdings in
the UK’s National Balancing Point, Zeebrugge and the Netherlands’ TTF, as
Angola LNG will be state-owned producer
well as spreads between the power, gas and coal markets.
Sonangol with 22.8pc, Chevron 36.4pc,
Contact our sales department on Tel:+44 20 7780 4290, email: sales@argusmediagroup.com
Eni 13.6pc, Total 13.6pc and BP 13.6pc.
Europe
Jan Feb ±
France 5.40 5.55 +0.15
Belgium 11.13 10.05 -1.08
Spain 4.58 4.56 -0.02
US
Asia
Jan Feb ±
Jan Feb ±
Cove Point 7.74 8.23 +0.49
Japan 7.05 6.91 -0.14
US average 6.14 7.13 +0.99
South Korea 7.42 7.07 -0.35
Taiwan 7.85 8.01 +0.16
was received, potentially in an effort to free space in the facilities’ pipeline system than was accepted by ship, clearing out extra
storage tanks. room at the terminals ahead of a further demand fall this month.
At the start of March, LNG storage at each of Spain’s five Sendout of regasified LNG from Spanish terminals totalled
operating terminals was at least 70pc full, leaving little capacity just over 22TWh in March, some 13.8pc more than was received
to accept delivery of a large cargo. But over the course of the at the terminals over the course of the month, drawing down LNG
month, more LNG was regasified and put into the national stocks at the facilities.
China
Australia 3.82 3.15 3.24 3.14 3.16 3.18 3.16
South Korea 8.55 7.99 9.52 10.27 10.24 10.38 12.33 8.91 9.51 10.55 *7.42 *7.07 *7.43
Taiwan
Australia 7.37 7.22 7.15
Egypt 9.71
Indonesia 10.76 10.97 11.93 12.36 12.07 12.43 12.65 11.07 9.70 9.64 *8.89 *9.47 *9.79
Malaysia 7.17 8.58 6.37 6.68 7.17 7.45 7.37 7.13 6.90 6.77 *6.80 *6.56 *6.81
Oman 13.45 13.42 9.97 10.18
Trinidad 10.01
Average 9.50 9.79 8.65 8.33 9.62 9.61 9.60 9.61 8.04 8.93 *7.85 *8.01 *8.30
Belgium
Algeria 13.41 7.30 6.48 6.81 9.79 6.61 5.13 4.06 7.35 5.94 *11.13 *10.05 *9.38
France 6.29 5.47 6.70 6.38 6.31 3.98 6.51 5.61 7.08 5.85 *5.40 *5.55 *4.76
Portugal
Nigeria 4.78 4.67 7.17 3.95 4.34 4.47 5.92 4.62 4.93 5.47 *4.47 *4.16 *3.99
Spain
Algeria 5.87 6.59 6.89 5.67 6.90 6.85 7.37 6.98 6.98 6.66 *4.80 *4.80 *4.42
Egypt 5.89 6.80 6.14 6.35 6.60 6.47 6.47 8.88
Libya 6.18 6.30 6.56 6.52 6.72 6.74 6.74 6.91 7.61 *4.76 *4.77 *4.39
Nigeria 5.33 5.33 5.33 5.33 5.33 5.33 5.33 5.33 5.33 5.33 *4.80 *4.80 *4.42
Oman 5.49 5.51 5.79 5.90 *3.64 *3.64 *3.39
Qatar 6.33 6.28 6.65 6.61 7.19 6.95 7.25 6.97 7.38 *4.75 *4.77 *4.38
Trinidad 6.24 5.54 6.11 4.86 7.00 5.99 3.79 6.16 6.54 6.12
Average 5.85 6.04 6.03 5.70 6.35 6.05 6.23 6.28 6.43 6.39 *4.56 *4.56 *4.21
UK
Algeria 9.05 7.03 6.82 6.20 6.77 6.79 6.24 5.49 7.15 5.85
Egypt 12.40 8.08 7.86 8.47 9.44
Trinidad 9.16 7.31 7.13 6.87
US
Cove Point
Algeria 7.00 6.56 6.03 6.06 5.84
Egypt 5.65 8.15 8.32 5.84
Trinidad 6.71 6.84 6.66 6.08 5.77 6.88 6.63 3.94 7.45 5.69 8.23
Elba Island
Trinidad 6.78 6.80 6.54 5.61 5.57 6.69 6.50 4.39 6.84 7.49 5.52 6.60
Egypt 6.90 6.88 5.61 5.57 6.73 6.62 3.89 6.58 8.00 5.52 6.82
Everett
Trinidad 7.53 6.84 7.30 5.82 6.23 6.67 6.02 6.85 7.61 7.42 7.11 7.54
Lake Charles
Egypt 6.65 6.62 5.36 5.34 6.25 6.58 7.72 5.29 6.35
Nigeria 6.65 6.62 5.37 5.34 6.36 6.25 3.69 6.58 6.58 5.29 6.35
Trinidad 6.67 5.49 7.05 5.84 6.25 5.93
Gulf Gateway
Trinidad 6.96
US average 7.16 6.77 6.75 5.70 5.79 6.65 5.89 5.09 7.04 7.43 6.14 7.13 *7.15
Puerto Rico 6.69 7.10 7.10 7.10 6.61 6.69 6.69 6.69 6.00
*estimate. Prices from national statistical sources and Argus estimates. All prices are ex-ship and exclude regasification
z Norway’s giant Troll field was off line for about a week at the
end of March, causing Dutch prompt prices to spike during Hungary €/MWh $/’000m³ Exporter Source
the partial outage. The Dutch day-ahead climbed to Mol 17.74 248.41 Ruhrgas Portfolio
18.01 252.23 Gazprom Russia
€11.50/MWh, after having finished at €9.50/MWh shortly
before the outage.
z Norwegian gas processing plant Karsto experienced sup- Italy €/MWh $/’000m³ Exporter Source
Snam 18.50 259.10 Gasunie Portfolio
ply problems just before the Troll field went off line. Traders
17.90 250.64 Sonatrach Algeria pipe
suggested that this had also helped push the Dutch prompt 18.50 259.10 Gazprom Russia
price higher.
HenryHenry
Hub Hub
vs Zeebrugge
vs Zeebrugge $/mnBtuBtu
Easing temperatures sap prices
$/mn
16
Zeebrugge
z Temperatures across much of the continental US moder-
14
ated in March, easing pressures on natural gas, although
12 Henry Hub
spot gas in some regions registered a slight uptick to finish
10 the month. Benchmark Henry Hub gas fell by a modest
8 9¢/mn Btu to $7.35/mn Btu, but other hubs in the south
6
traded at a discount, bringing the regional average price
down to $6.86/mn Btu.
4
2
Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr Jul Oct Jan 07 z Nymex prompt month gas fell in mid-March, but picked
up steam towards the end of the month. April contracts set-
tled at $7.56/mn Btu before rolling off the board. The May
Zeebrugge front1stmonth
Zeebrugge differential
full-month vs NBP to NBP (p/therm)
p/therm contract traded at $7.67/mn Btu at the end of March.
8
z Generators and grid operators will be anxiously awaiting
6 more detailed forecasts of the upcoming summer months,
4 NBP = 0 after initial hurricane forecasts showed an active season
this year. Forward gas markets are showing similar curves
2
to last year in late summer, with winter contracts as much
0 as $1.50/mn Btu lower. Higher basis prices for regions such
as the northeast underline the market’s concern about
-2
another long hot summer.
-4
Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr Jul Oct Jan 07 Apr
z Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline has received approval
from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to double
capacity from Canada to the northeast US. The Phase 4
US gas in underground storage bn ft3
Project includes upgrades to existing facilities in Maine and
Region 30 Mar 23 Feb ± Year ago Five year %±
Massachusetts, and new compressor stations in Maine.
av. 5 yr av.
The project will boost pipeline transfer capacity from
East 702 898 -196 848 584 +20.21
418mn ft³/d to 833mn ft³/d and should be completed by
West 238 243 -5 231 196 +21.43
late 2008. The company will dedicate the increased capac-
Producing 629 592 37 58 452 +39.16
ity for LNG imported to the Canaport receiving and regasi-
Total lower 48 1,569 1,733 -1
164 1,996 1,232 +27.35
fication terminal in St John, New Brunswick.
— EIA
US ($/mn Btu )
Henry Hub, 1st month 6.98 6.65 5.97 5.84 8.04 5.81 4.15 6.64 8.32 5.63 7.76 7.44 7.35
NY (Transco Zone 6) 7.59 7.06 6.56 6.35 10.01 6.11 4.39 7.38 8.87 6.10 9.54 8.25 7.85
Columbia TCO 7.47 6.89 6.19 6.01 8.28 5.92 4.27 6.88 7.88 5.61 7.96 7.69 7.79
SoCal border 5.95 5.57 5.29 5.01 7.36 5.51 3.90 6.39 7.94 5.95 7.29 7.03 5.95
Nymex, 1st month 7.21 6.56 6.38 6.10 8.21 6.05 5.62 7.53 8.32 5.84 7.67 7.53 7.56
Nymex, 2nd month 7.42 6.81 6.62 6.37 8.45 8.23 7.04 7.99 8.56 6.14 7.66 7.62 7.67
Japanese Crude Cocktail 61.03 61.30 66.53 67.81 67.96 71.84 72.06 64.44 59.87 58.51 60.43 55.13 na
Tapis 66.89 74.48 75.10 71.76 77.01 79.26 69.90 63.67 60.69 63.86 59.15 64.00 66.75
Dubai (1st month) London 57.94 64.24 64.98 65.09 68.98 68.75 59.67 56.39 56.89 58.63 51.52 55.76 59.05
BFO (dated) 62.17 70.34 69.70 68.74 73.72 73.36 61.80 57.88 58.92 62.38 53.67 57.48 62.16
WTI (1st month) 62.71 69.91 70.61 70.89 74.38 73.20 64.06 59.12 59.38 62.27 54.10 59.03 60.84
HSFO 180 fob South Korea 344.26 356.78 356.24 333.53 350.75 329.24 288.56 290.21 275.26 282.16 279.20 303.71 314.63
HSFO 180 fob Singapore 337.00 349.96 348.83 329.53 347.65 329.26 287.15 287.21 272.23 278.59 271.58 296.79 309.31
LSWR fob Singapore 352.48 383.10 382.89 373.15 367.38 335.72 286.10 269.62 258.98 277.26 256.18 280.37 296.40
1pc fuel oil fob NWE 306.52 318.78 316.43 303.95 318.05 328.43 269.67 259.68 256.25 266.63 229.86 246.68 260.41
1pc fuel oil fob W Med 319.75 315.47 323.86 308.77 328.19 340.41 273.49 265.75 264.35 276.71 245.73 251.86 272.22
US Gulf coast 1pc 303.42 326.32 332.87 304.92 320.43 335.11 288.88 263.89 287.72 286.40 242.04 273.72 282.45
New York 1pc 303.39 322.37 313.35 306.62 309.87 322.68 257.33 251.99 271.00 259.83 235.81 251.83 269.85
C+F Japan 615.84 679.13 692.87 689.51 678.47 678.11 599.36 555.01 542.19 551.69 534.88 564.18 578.05
Fob South Korea 534.67 608.23 629.23 637.20 639.30 638.83 562.52 528.95 517.84 511.49 490.65 522.37 541.55
German heating oil 571.61 620.88 630.86 630.60 642.37 657.91 575.99 548.45 542.77 549.33 493.93 527.79 548.93
Heating oil fob W Med 566.68 612.19 625.88 627.38 625.55 644.58 569.19 537.85 531.68 542.63 483.32 510.64 540.26
No 2 oil New York 552.28 615.61 612.55 595.68 597.45 613.79 522.09 509.57 513.32 519.93 470.20 525.05 540.29
France month-ahead 54.67 45.99 39.15 44.79 54.35 52.24 51.78 63.24 62.40 62.52 48.94 34.06 28.48
Spain pool weighted average 49.69 51.60 52.65 46.67 52.01 46.48 55.85 45.64 37.33 38.25 49.16 38.49 30.75
Spain month-ahead 46.44 48.70 51.26 53.56 49.03 56.60 55.01 51.99 45.07 46.31 48.51 41.61 33.65
PJM (off peak)($/MWh) 59.55 64.28 60.56 80.40 79.80 72.47 48.95 54.28 63.71 63.73 61.39 65.51 62.97
Entergy mth-ahead ($/MWh) 53.48 60.75 63.61 75.48 68.38 62.59 56.61 52.60 59.73 57.88 53.80 60.80 58.78
Japan 66.61 68.25 67.58 66.56 72.76 71.67 73.42 72.79 74.42 83.45 84.61 83.70 90.31
South Korea 57.36 58.01 55.92 55.31 58.35 59.18 60.20 59.30 59.64 61.31 61.55 62.46 66.05
Indonesia 47.08 49.39 47.38 45.89 48.33 48.64 47.80 45.38 44.83 46.67 47.54 48.86 50.31
ARA 65.00 63.31 59.38 62.50 62.35 70.06 65.58 66.20 67.48 68.20 68.33 68.94 71.42
Nymex spec. (short tons) 53.99 52.53 51.09 49.66 46.39 47.52 45.37 43.06 40.63 41.73 39.44 40.63 40.63
New York 180cst 339.24 346.82 357.45 343.09 353.34 363.37 308.63 302.57 309.18 302.70 283.68 315.45 322.09
New York 380cst 320.24 327.82 338.45 324.09 333.34 343.37 288.63 282.75 285.08 284.70 256.18 290.39 293.64
Houston 180cst 322.46 340.92 345.00 322.77 345.97 353.11 302.13 286.18 278.53 279.43 264.23 283.89 286.82
Houston 380cst 307.46 325.92 330.00 307.77 325.97 333.11 282.13 266.36 262.18 266.63 248.63 271.63 273.18
Antwerp 180 cst 315.36 340.14 344.24 318.07 333.80 331.75 293.71 283.16 277.82 275.68 246.34 273.05 289.82
Antwerp 380 cst 295.36 320.53 323.33 298.34 313.37 311.57 275.00 264.45 259.64 257.11 229.20 254.90 271.45
Singapore 180cst 343.78 354.89 355.33 337.64 351.10 332.84 297.86 294.95 276.91 282.83 285.71 313.72 320.27
Singapore 380 cst 331.65 344.53 345.24 326.41 339.29 320.32 287.29 286.38 267.14 271.05 276.45 302.56 309.95
South Korea 180cst 367.17 377.82 385.60 368.91 381.19 360.09 340.95 327.83 330.09 317.85 348.93 355.44 352.73
South Korea 380 cst 345.52 355.84 360.64 342.86 351.19 330.09 310.95 297.83 300.50 292.35 320.12 333.78 332.64
Fujaira 180cst 341.52 356.63 358.93 343.91 359.90 346.41 298.07 293.10 282.09 283.80 282.48 321.39 323.86
Fujaira 380 cst 332.50 345.84 342.62 325.68 337.19 324.09 281.17 281.86 271.91 273.70 270.50 311.56 313.68
fresh cargoes of 0.2 sulphur Russian gasoil for use as motor fuel. 260
Elsewhere, reduced snowmelt across Europe cut utilities’ access
240
to hydropower, buoying demand for low-sulphur fuel oil for power Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr Jul Oct Jan 07 Apr
end of the month, while the same contract in the UK fell from
5
£22.48/MWh to £20.45/MWh over the same period. But liquidity
in the power markets was limited during the month as traders 0
Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr Jul Oct Jan 07
held off from taking positions in advance of the release of
European Commission emissions data for 2006 in early April.
Shipping news
z New Norwegian LNG shipper Flex offshore LNG and “short and small” LNG ered in the secondary membranes of
LNG has ordered two novel carriers that trades. Belgium’s Exmar and fellow their cargo containment systems in 2005
can liquefy and regasify LNG on board. Norwegian firm Hoegh LNG have ves- disrupted delivery schedules (AGL,
The niche operator, founded last year to sels capable of regasifying LNG on February, p28). Gaselys, ordered third in
own and operate medium-sized flexible board — LNG regasification vessels July 2004, had been due for delivery late
— M-Flex — LNG carriers, has ordered (LNGRVs), and shuttle and regasification last year. The second to be ordered,
two such vessels at South Korea’s vessels (SRVs) respectively — but none Provalys, arrived first — a year late — last
Samsung Heavy Industries for delivery can yet liquefy gas on board too. November (AGL, December 2006, p28).
from 2010. Japanese firm Ishikawajima- The first order, the 74,000m³ Gaz de
Harima Heavy Industries designed the z France’s state-owned Gaz de France France Energy, with which Chantiers de
incorporated SPB (self-supporting, pris- has taken delivery of the third of three l’Atlantique found the problem during
matic shape, IMO type-B) containment LNG carriers from Aker Yards France, sea trials, arrived two years behind
system, licensed to Samsung. Flex LNG ending a long-running saga. The schedule in December (AGL, February,
does not envisage the vessels compet- 154,500m³ Gaselys was the least p28). GdF is chartering Gaselys for 20
ing with conventional LNG carriers, delayed of the three vessels ordered years from owner NYK Armateur, a sub-
rather operating in niche markets unsuit- from the former Chantiers de l’Atlantique sidiary of Japan’s NYK Lines with 60pc
able for conventional tonnage such as shipyard, after porosity problems discov- and GdF with 40pc.
LNG shipping fleet Mar 2007 LNG order book Mar 2007
Owner No. of Age of fleet m³ Av. m³
vessels Av. Min. Max. Owner No. of m³
MISC 22 11 27 1 2,617,425 118,974 vessels
Mitsui OSK Line 15 10 23 1 1,905,456 127,030 Qatar Gas Transport Company 25 6,064,500
Bonny Gas Transport 13 14 31 1 1,739,315 133,793 NYK Line 10 1,484,600
Golar LNG 12 14 32 1 1,613,532 134,461 J5 Consortium 8 1,698,000
Bergesen-Worldwide 11 8 34 0 1,354,179 123,107 Teekay Shipping 7 1,329,700
NYK Line 10 15 24 7 1,314,211 131,421
K Line 7 1,068,000
National Gas Shpg. 8 12 13 10 1,092,306 136,538
Burmah Gas Transport 8 29 30 28 1,010,700 126,338 MISC 7 1,050,000
Aust. LNG Ship Optg. 7 14 18 3 903,330 129,047 AP Moller 6 921,600
Brunei Shell Tankers 7 33 35 32 530,651 75,807 BG International 6 920,000
Teekay Shipping 6 3 5 0 860,794 143,466 China LNG Ship Management 5 731,300
K Line 6 11 24 1 802,840 133,807 OSG/QGTC 4 864,000
Hyundai Merchant 6 9 13 7 790,182 131,697 Pronav Ship Management 4 840,000
SNTM-Hyproc 6 30 36 26 677,904 112,984 BP 4 620,000
Exmar 5 3 5 1 690,513 138,103
Bergesen-Worldwide 4 611,400
SK Shipping 5 9 13 7 680,214 136,043
Leif Hoegh 5 20 34 1 595,428 119,086 Mitsui OSK Line 4 611,400
Oman Shipping 4 2 2 1 580,000 145,000 Exmar 4 603,600
BG International 4 2 3 1 573,209 143,302 Sovcomflot-NYK 4 581,800
Hanjin Shpg 4 9 12 7 545,347 136,337 Knutsen 3 469,447
Shell Tank. (S’pore) 4 17 29 5 521,930 130,483 Dynacom Tankers Management 3 450,000
SnamProgetti 4 24 38 9 212,700 53,175 Tokyo LNG Tanker 3 317,100
Maran Maritime Gas 3 2 2 1 436,500 145,500
Bluesky LNG 2 320,000
NYK/MOL/K Line 3 2 2 2 435,260 145,087
Knutsen 3 2 3 1 414,826 138,275 Chevron 2 309,600
BP Shipping 3 4 5 4 414,000 138,000 Tokyo Electric 2 290,400
Gaz de France 3 1 1 0 381,130 127,043 Hoegh LNG/MOL 2 290,000
Tokyo LNG Tanker 2 3 4 2 295,223 147,612 Korea Line 2 290,000
AP Moller 2 2 3 1 283,400 141,700 STX Pan Ocean 2 290,000
Shell Group 2 4 4 3 278,752 139,376 Sonatrach 2 151,000
Korea Line 2 8 8 7 273,273 136,637 Elcano 1 170,000
MOL/NYK/K Line/SCI 2 3 3 3 272,088 136,044
Trinity LNG Carrier 1 154,200
Tokyo Electric 2 3 4 1 272,006 136,003
Marathon Oil 2 14 14 14 179,760 89,880 Tsakos Energy Navigation 1 150,000
Taiwan Maritime Tran 2 22 42 1 171,200 85,600 Golar LNG 1 145,700
Humpuss Trans 2 14 17 11 155,874 77,937 Maran Maritime Gas 1 145,700
Sovcomflot 2 38 38 38 143,000 71,500 Cygnus LNG Shipping 1 145,400
Messigaz 2 35 36 34 90,081 45,041 Hyundai Merchant 1 145,000
Chemikalien Seetrans 2 32 32 32 71,000 35,500 Iino Kaiun Kaisha 1 145,000
NYK Line 1 0 0 0 149,700 149,700
MOL/NYK/K Line/Mitsui 1 145,000
Algeria Nippon Gas 1 3 3 3 147,845 147,845
Osaka Gas 1 1 1 1 145,000 145,000 Maple LNG Transport 1 19,100
IS Carriers 1 4 4 4 138,306 138,306 Grand total 142 24,542,547
Elcano 1 4 4 4 138,000 138,000
Energy Spring 1 6 6 6 137,248 137,248
Brunei Gas 1 5 5 5 135,000 135,000 LNG vessel time charter rates $/d
DistriGas 1 29 29 29 131,260 131,260
Methane Transport 1 30 30 30 129,299 129,299 Duration
Tractebel LNG 1 28 28 28 126,540 126,540 Long term 65,000
Auxiliar Maritima 1 37 37 37 40,000 40,000 Spot 70,000
Total 222 12 0 42 27,597,737 124,314
Delivered value of
Delivered price
maintenance $
off ’000m³
Netback $/mn
Bunker fuel $
Insurance $
Manning $
Repairs &
storage $
$/mn Btu
cargo $
boil-o
Btu
Route
Qatar-Japan 14.0 1,433,371 129,115 72,261 10,602 24,955 726,003 2,396,307 125,321 16,173,362 0.89 5.92 5.03
Qatar-S Korea 14.7 1,504,776 134,946 75,524 11,081 26,082 762,303 2,514,712 125,174 20,274,938 0.94 7.43 6.49
Qatar-Spain 11.2 1,147,751 105,791 59,207 8,687 20,447 580,803 1,922,686 125,906 12,022,047 0.71 4.38 3.67
Abu Dhabi-Japan 14.0 1,433,371 129,115 72,261 10,602 24,955 726,003 2,396,307 125,321 15,271,807 0.89 5.59 4.70
Algeria-Belgium 3.4 310,405 40,817 22,844 3,352 7,889 176,317 561,624 127,539 26,079,593 0.21 9.38 9.17
Algeria-France 1.1 103,857 21,658 12,121 1,778 4,186 57,046 200,646 128,020 13,284,361 0.07 4.76 4.69
Algeria-S Korea 20.0 1,801,145 179,095 100,233 14,706 34,615 1,037,146 3,166,940 124,065 20,095,304 1.19 7.43 6.24
Algeria-Spain 0.8 76,916 19,159 10,723 1,573 3,703 41,489 153,562 128,083 12,341,527 0.06 4.42 4.36
Algeria-US 10.9 983,932 103,292 57,809 8,482 19,964 565,246 1,738,725 125,969 19,634,815 0.64 7.15 6.51
Australia-Japan 7.9 801,457 78,302 43,823 6,430 15,134 409,674 1,354,820 126,597 15,896,523 0.50 5.76 5.26
Australia-S Korea 8.5 861,959 83,300 46,620 6,840 16,100 440,789 1,455,608 126,471 20,485,074 0.54 7.43 6.89
Brunei-Japan 4.9 498,948 53,312 29,837 4,378 10,304 254,103 850,881 127,225 15,531,588 0.31 5.60 5.29
Brunei-S Korea 5.7 579,617 59,976 33,566 4,925 11,592 295,589 985,265 127,057 20,579,975 0.36 7.43 7.07
Indonesia-Japan 7.2 730,872 72,471 40,559 5,951 14,007 373,374 1,237,234 126,743 21,938,269 0.46 7.94 7.48
Indonesia-S Korea 6.9 700,621 69,972 39,161 5,746 13,524 357,817 1,186,840 126,806 20,539,303 0.44 7.43 6.99
Libya-Spain 2.3 211,621 31,654 17,716 2,599 6,118 119,274 388,982 127,769 12,227,723 0.14 4.39 4.25
Malaysia-S Korea 4.7 478,781 51,646 28,904 4,241 9,982 243,732 817,285 127,267 20,613,868 0.30 7.43 7.13
Nigeria-France 8.8 795,345 85,799 48,019 7,045 16,583 456,346 1,409,136 126,409 13,117,168 0.52 4.76 4.24
Nigeria-Spain 8.4 759,423 82,467 46,154 6,772 15,939 435,603 1,346,358 126,492 12,188,292 0.50 4.42 3.92
Nigeria-US 13.4 1,208,441 124,117 69,464 10,192 23,989 694,889 2,131,092 125,446 19,553,276 0.79 7.15 6.36
Oman-Japan 13.0 1,331,364 120,785 67,599 9,918 23,345 674,146 2,227,156 125,530 22,521,795 0.83 8.23 7.40
Oman-S Korea 12.5 1,280,360 116,620 65,268 9,576 22,540 648,217 2,142,581 125,634 20,349,502 0.80 7.43 6.63
Oman-Spain 12.3 1,259,959 114,954 64,336 9,439 22,218 637,846 2,108,751 125,676 9,287,724 0.78 3.39 2.61
Oman-US 9.3 953,937 89,964 50,350 7,387 17,388 482,274 1,601,300 126,304 19,687,001 0.59 7.15 6.56
Trinidad-US 4.8 435,153 52,479 29,371 4,309 10,143 248,917 780,372 127,246 19,833,772 0.29 7.15 6.86
Alaska-Japan 7.4 668,113 74,137 41,492 6,088 14,329 383,746 1,187,904 126,702 16,241,111 0.44 5.88 5.44
Algeria-UK 4.0 364,287 45,815 25,641 3,762 8,855 207,432 655,792 127,413 16,248,980 0.24 5.85 5.61
South Korea
LNG ($/mn Btu) 7.43 25.26 65.70 -18.42 -8.59 -0.78 14.29 19.77
Coal, cif Korea ($/t) 66.05 9.47 65.70 34.18 37.87 40.79 46.44 48.49
HSFO 180, fob Korea ($/t) 314.63 26.28 65.70 -21.81 -11.59 -3.45 12.21 17.92
Europe
Belgium
LNG ($/mn Btu) 9.38 31.89 40.53 -65.67 -53.27 -43.40 -24.39 -17.46
Zeebrugge gas month ahead ($/mn Btu) 4.00 13.60 40.53 -4.76 0.53 4.74 12.85 15.80
Coal ($/t) 71.42 10.24 40.53 6.44 10.43 13.59 19.69 21.92
1pc fuel oil fob NWE ($/t) 260.41 21.75 40.53 -31.90 -23.44 -16.71 -3.75 0.98
France
LNG ($/mn Btu) 4.76 16.18 37.69 -16.20 -9.91 -4.90 4.75 8.27
Pipeline natural gas, Russia ($/mn Btu) 6.64 22.58 37.69 -37.49 -28.70 -21.72 -8.26 -3.36
Coal ($/t) 71.42 10.24 37.69 3.61 7.59 10.76 16.86 19.08
1pc fuel oil fob W Med ($/t) 272.22 22.74 37.69 -38.02 -29.18 -22.14 -8.59 -3.65
Italy
LNG ($/mn Btu) 4.21 14.31 62.46 14.80 20.36 24.79 33.33 36.44
Pipeline natural gas, Russia ($/mn Btu) 7.20 24.48 62.46 -19.06 -9.53 -1.96 12.64 17.95
Coal ($/t) 71.42 10.24 62.46 28.38 32.36 35.53 41.63 43.85
1pc fuel oil fob W Med ($/t) 272.22 22.74 62.46 -13.25 -4.41 2.63 16.18 21.12
Spain
LNG ($/mn Btu) 4.21 14.36 44.54 -3.29 2.29 6.74 15.30 18.42
Pipeline natural gas, Algeria ($/mn Btu) 6.95 23.63 44.54 -34.15 -24.96 -17.64 -3.56 1.58
Coal ($/t) 71.42 10.24 44.54 10.46 14.44 17.61 23.71 25.93
1pc fuel oil fob W Med ($/t) 272.22 22.74 44.54 -31.18 -22.33 -15.30 -1.74 3.20
Americas
US Gulf coast
LNG ($/mn Btu) 7.15 24.40 58.78 -22.46 -12.97 -5.42 9.12 14.42
Natural gas, Henry Hub Nymex ($/mn Btu) 7.35 24.99 58.78 -24.44 -14.72 -6.98 7.92 13.34
Coal ($/st) 40.63 5.82 58.78 39.39 41.66 43.46 46.93 48.19
HSFO ($/t) 260.64 21.77 58.78 -13.72 -5.25 1.49 14.47 19.20
US northeast
LNG ($/mn Btu) 7.15 24.40 59.99 -21.25 -11.76 -4.21 10.33 15.63
Natural gas, Transco Z6 NY ($/mn Btu) 7.85 26.69 59.99 -28.89 -18.51 -10.25 5.66 11.46
Coal ($/st) 40.63 5.82 59.99 40.60 42.86 44.67 48.14 49.40
HSFO ($/t) 269.35 22.50 59.99 -14.93 -6.18 0.78 14.20 19.08
Note: Spark spreads compare the cost of generating power at various heating efficiencies with the cost of buying power from the grid. A positive spread
indicates it is economical to buy fuel, while a negative spread indicates it is economical to buy power off the grid. Prices are taken from Argus oil, gas,
coal and electricity daily market reports, the IEA, company sources and national statistical bodies.
The model does not take account of local taxes or transport costs.
Conversion factors (left hand column units are multiplied by the factor shown to convert to units in the top row)
million barrels tons cubic cubic m³ tons tons
British of oil of oil feet metres LNG LNG LNG
thermal equivalent equivalent (ft³) (m³) (specific (specific
units gas gas gravity gravity
Equals 0.425) 0.475)
1 million Btu (1mn Btu) 1 0.172 0.0235 1000 28.3 0.0459 0.0195 0.0218
1 barrel of oil equivalent (boe) 5.8 1 0.136 5800 164.2 0.266 0.113 0.126
1 ton of oil equivalent (toe) 42.5 7.33 1 42.5 1200 1.95 0.828 0.925
1 ft³ gas 0.001 0.000172 0.0000235 1 0.0283 0.0000458 0.0000195 0.0000218
1 m³ gas 0.0353 0.000608 0.00083 35.3 1 0.00162 0.000688 0.000769
1 m³ LNG 21.8 3.76 0.513 21824 618 1 0.425 0.475
1 ton LNG (specific gravity 0.425) 51.3 8.85 1.207 51350 1450 2.353 1
1 ton LNG (specific gravity 0.475) 45.9 7.91 1.081 45950 1300 2.105 1
South Korea 2,800 2,074 2,198 1,655 1,240 1,181 1,187 1,591 2,045 2,751
China (Guangdong)
Australia - - - 57 62 - 31 174 119 244 119
Taiwan
Algeria - - 60 60 - - - - - -
Australia - 60 60 - - 58 - - - -
Egypt - - - - - - - 126 - -
Indonesia 184 308 244 122 366 303 186 366 244 366
Malaysia 293 235 357 414 413 360 293 235 356 174
Oman 45 - 19 - - - 123 61 - -
Qatar - - 64 61 - 128 61 - - -
Trinidad - - - - - - - - - 111
Total 521 622 785 657 779 848 663 789 601 651
Belgium
Algeria 338 278 283 454 - 62 172 235 345 356
Total 338 278 283 454 - 62 172 235 345 356
France 792 881 1,001 798 801 917 707 885 1,097 1,024
Greece 48 16 16 48 48 48 32 83 48 74 104 48
Portugal
Nigeria 176 110 61 115 175 174 113 164 104 168
Spain
Abu Dhabi - - - 168 - - - - - -
Algeria 276 127 86 113 82 84 146 236 211 317
Egypt 542 285 401 - - - 161 295 196 77
Libya 49 69 16 50 34 33 17 - 70 16
Nigeria 449 379 465 709 409 490 548 345 279 447
Oman 132 66 - - 124 65 - - - -
Qatar 202 325 288 292 360 320 382 179 - 252
Trinidad 340 145 212 170 199 170 56 216 215 253
Total 1,989 1,395 1,468 1,502 1,208 1,160 1,310 1,271 971 1,363
Turkey
Algeria 304 295 236 125 173 58 300 244 296 373 299 294
Nigeria 53 128 56 - - 113 - 160 120 61 112 125
Total 357 423 292 125 173 171 300 403 415 434 411 418
UK
Algeria 181 119 116 112 118 96 50 56 176 120
Egypt - 110 - - - 59 116 - 121 121
Qatar - - - - - - - - 53 -
Trinidad 114 - 56 - - 57 - - 169 -
Total 294 228 172 112 118 213 166 56 519 241
US Cove Point
Algeria 59 55 - 55 59 - - - - - 49
Egypt - - - - 58 - - - 58 58 58
Trinidad 114 227 227 229 117 230 106 58 - 118 173 117
US Elba Island
Trinidad 155 160 210 154 206 155 156 153 206 223 154 245
Egypt - 102 57 114 60 173 115 50 57 50 55 56
US Everett
Trinidad 320 272 324 266 278 278 178 270 274 323 390 273
US Lake Charles
Algeria - 163 - - - - - - - - - -
Egypt - - 330 165 175 - 56 - 215 115 59 56
Nigeria - 117 60 117 120 121 118 175 112 60 104 112
Trinidad - 52 104 103 51 51 51 - - 52 - -
US total 648 1,146 1,312 1,203 1,122 1,016 780 706 921 999 1,043 859
Puerto Rico
Trinidad 50 53 - 59 17 59 - 33 59 59 54
p p
Japanese imports mn t
1.6 US imports boom
Indonesia
1.4 Malaysia z US LNG imports for the first quarter of this year are esti-
mated to be 47pc higher than imports a year ago, the US
1.2 Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-
Term Energy Outlook released on 10 April.
1.0
UK +240.9
USA
Cove Point +117.1 Belgium +355.9
Elba Island +301.3 Portugal +167.9 from USA (Alaska)
Everett +273.0 Italy +195.2 Turkey +418.3
Lake Charles +168.0 Spain +1,362.5 Greece +48.1 South Korea +2,750.9
Total +859.4
Egypt -2106.5 Qatar -1,052.3 Japan +5,348.7
Algeria -1203.8 China +62.4
Libya -2071.1 Taiwan +651.0
Puerto Rico +53.7
Oman -1576.2
+ Imports
- Exports Australia -1,186.8
— Drewry