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SeismicityAnalysis (Myanmar German)
SeismicityAnalysis (Myanmar German)
Random Process in a
given region
Related to the
seismogenic source
Earthquake (Parametric components)
Over a period of time,
Source the threat of seismic
excitation to a given
Occurrence time system at a given site
Epicenter location can be due to events at
different times and of
Magnitude different magnitudes,
distances, focal depths
Depth and rupture surface
Rupture surface geometries and
features.
geometry
Source: The randomness and uncertainty
Adapted from
International
Handbook of
Engineering
Seismology and
Earthquake
Engineering
(2004)
Occurrence Time
The random occurrence in time can be
modeled by random processes
Bernoulli and Poisson processes are
time independent
The probability of number of
occurrences depends only on the time
interval considered and is independent
of the calendar time and past history.
Epicenter Location
The exact location of a future earthquake
epicenter is unknown.
Random spatial distribution models can be
used for this purpose.
In the context of a Poisson occurrence model,
one can express the mean occurrence rate of
future events per unit area as function of the
location v(x, y) for an area source and as
function along the line source.
Magnitude
The occurrence rate of events in a given
region, the random magnitude and
spatial distribution of epicenter given
the occurrence in time can be used to
model the temporal and spatial
randomness of future events
LogM = a b M (Gutenberg and
Richter, 1966; Housner, 1970)
The Sagaing Fault named after Win Swe (1981)
29
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103
29
5.5
26 26
Lowland of Myanmar
Myitkyina
Western 25
2.
25
Fold Sagaing 24
2.5 5.
CHINA
24
Belt Fault
Active fault 23 Lashio 23
Haka
BAN- Mandalay
22 GLA- 22
DESH
Sagaing Fault
Keng Tung
1.
Annual Yangon
rate of
21 21
Sittway
20 3.2 20
Bagodisplacement is about 20 19 19
Yoma
25 mm per year (GIAC,
18 18
THAILAND
2000) 16
5.5
BURMA
2.5
EXPLANATION
16
15 PLATE 15
14 Subduction zone 14
Centre
Andaman Rift
4.
12 12
11 Active Interface 11
3.7
10 10
3 to 3.9
4 to 4.9
5 to 5.9
6 to 6.9
Spreading Centre
7 to 7.5
Sampling and counting net
0 4 4 1 1 0
1 1 4 4 1 1 0
0 1
0
11 2 0 0 0 0
Counting net
0 2 2 0 1 1 0 0
0 1 2 2 4 5 2 1 1 0 0.25 x 0.25 Degree;
0 3 5 7 8 3 3 2 0
0
0
6
6
9 5 3 5 6 4 0
8 2 1 7 13 10 1 1
625 square kilometers
0 0 2 2 1 2 4 15 14 6 3
0 2 3 5 5 11 11 9 6
0 1 4 5 6 7 7 4 3 2
0 1 2 5 7 8 6 1 1 0
0 1 1 2 7 11 11 5 3 1
0 11 1 7 12 11 7 3 1
0 1 9 12 12 10 4 0
0 1 4 10 17 13 5 0
0 6 9 10 13 10 4 0
0 7 15 12 9 7 5 1
0 3 10 13 12 4 4 3
0 2 3 4 12 21 14 9 6
0 3 4 2 7 17 15 7 5
0 2 2 0 5 9 6 3 2
0 1 1 1 6 6 3 2 1
0 2 4 4 1 0 0
Defining sources (Spatial correlation)
Assumption-1:
Locality of
occurrence of an
earthquake is
connected to
distinct regional
geological
structural
lineament like fault
Assumption-2:
Each source or
segment has linear
continuity to a
certain limit.
Area of interest (AOI)
Yangon
Partition of
seismic sources is
based on area of
evenly distributed
earthquake
occurrences in
connection with
surface traces of
geological
structural
framework.
Generating mesh
9 1
2
8 7 3
6 4
5
Each tectonic segment or
component shows different
seismic activity.
Gutenberg and Richter recurrence Law (1966)
The frequencies of earthquakes, N
M
N = AN 0 exp Equation-1
B
dN 1 M Equation-1a
n= = AN 0 exp
dM B B
Where N = the number per year of shallow earthquakes
having magnitude equal to or greater than M in area A
N0 = the annual number of shocks per unit area
B = Seismic severity (Distribution parameter)
M = Magnitude
Gutenberg and Richter recurrence Law (1966)
For purpose of plotting, it is customary to put Eq. 1 in the form
log10 m = a bM Equation-2
1
a = log10 AN 0
B
b = 2.3B
a and b are Gutenberg-Richter parameters
Areas
Sr No. Area (km2) N0 B
1 9570 0.00156 1
2 3564 0.00254 1
3 5580 0.00221 1
4 4620 0.00203 0.917
5 33177.6 0.00035 0.875
6 3663 0.00317 0.75
7 7216 0.0013 0.917
8 8178 0.00136 1
9 7050 0.00165 1.421
Output (Gutenberg-Richter parameters)
Sr. No a b
1 0.75967 0.35759
2 0.54407 0.43422
3 0.6721 0.43422
4 0.59827 0.47369
5 0.71078 0.44345
6 0.77608 0.3799
7 0.59671 0.47369
8 0.63144 0.43422
9 0.49976 0.43422
Application of Gutenberg-
Richter Law to seismicity of
the southern segment of the
9 1
Sagaing Fault 2
8 7 3
6 4
9 1
2
8 7 3
6 4
5
Bounded Gutenberg-Richter Recurrence Law