Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 27

:.

,,
,.

()
)
i)
ii)
iii)(

iv)(,:..,
:)
)
i)(/,
)
ii)
iii)(repos
)
iv)
)

++=0

Repos=(=
,)

=.
=/
.
=.
()=
.
(/)=
,
,:1=$1,20
,
,.,:1=$1,201
=$1,22.,
.
,()
,:$1,18,fixing $1,205,$1,23.
fixing =()
.(),
,:
.
=
,(
)
,,
.

Arbitrage=2
.
:),)

():
1. (fixedexchangerates)=
2()
,:BrettonWoods 1$=4
DM
2. (flexible/floating exchangerates)=
,
.
,
,
.

:),)
,).,
,
.

(FlexibleExchangeRatesor
IndependentFloating),40,...,
,,
(FixedExchangeRatesorPeg)


(PeggedExchangeRateswithinhorizontalbands)
(Crawling Peg)
ManagedFloating(41)
(CurrencyBoard)
DollarizationorEuroization

M*v=P*Y
(M=,v=,=,=)
.

:,,,
.
:
,,
,.
:
,
.

:,
,.
:,,,
().

1.
2. :)(,),):
(),(),
(:),,
(:).=
,,
.=,

3. =
4. :),)
:i)/,ii)
/
5.

()
:

(,)


:




()
:



,
.
,
612.

:.
,
.
:%+%/2
(=,=)

()
(
).
,
,
.
.

:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

.
.
.

(
).

(2 ).

,:/$=1,20,/=120$/=100
,

,(112).

:2
,
.

:
1. :
:)
,
,)
,)
,)
.
2. :,
,(calloption)(putoption)

.,
,
,
.

:
:
2,
.
:
,

.
:

.

:$:
1. .
-/$(=) D
,/*.
-/* D
2. .
-/$ D
X,
R.
R D

15%(:
).

(fundamentals):,
,,,.
,

.
(selffulfilledcrisis):)
,
.
.)
,
.)
,

.)
,
,.
(herding)
(soroseffect)

(wakeupeffect
)


:
:i)
:1 ,
2,
3
:)
(),):
()
(),
.
:
.
:,
.:
:,,

()


, (19291933)
,:


.



.

To...
,
. ...

, , ,
.

To 1944
44 ...
194639.

195867,1967 1061998182
. O
182.

18,25%,
5,67%,5,10%
5,10%.
(SpecialDrawingRight,SDR)23/3/2001
1,269.

75%25%
. O
210 . SDR 45%
22/1/1999


.

.
.

World Economic Outlook
(WEO).

.


,,
,
,

.


182.



.
,
o

.
.
.

.
.

.
194635$7,6.1998
$193.

...
18% ( $35 .)
1946
.

...260,000
18%.

...
182
.
(interim) ...


24
10
.
,
5 (,
, . , , ).
.5
,.
.


,18%
. , o 18%
.

) (standby arrangements, SBA):


.

3,55.

) (extended fund facility, EFF):




.
4,510.

O
:

(Reserve Tranche
Policies).

.

.

.


.
(Credit Tranche Policies).

25%.,

.25%
.

(Policyon Emergency Assistance)



.
25%
.
25%.

2.

2)(Poverty
ReductionandGrowthFacility,PRGF).1987ESAF,
1994 1999.

.O
,,.

.0,5%,
.

2)(HeavilyIndebtedPoor
Countries,(HIPC)Initiative).1996

.
ParisClub.,36
.

3.

3)(CompensatoryFinancing
Facility,CFF).

3)(SupplementaryReserve
Facility,SRF).

.1,52,5
.
3)(ContingentCreditLines,CCL)
.
,

199518.6,2
.
.

23199835.
,.
...

20,4.

1998

. ,
.

1970

.


.

()
,

TV=$120()&
1=$1,20,
TV=100()
100=$120 1,20
PTV=P*TV X
P*

tv=1001=$1,20 Ptv=$120
Ptv=P*tv/X

TV=95

,
,
PTV=95
P*TV=$114
95=$114 1,2
PTV=P*TV X

1=$.,
1/=$/*
=,
*=$
=*/
*/=
,

=*/
=*/

H
.

=*/

1=P*1/P1
1/X=
(P*1/P1)/(*/)

(P*1/P1)=*(1+*)/P(1+)

1=(1+*)/(1+)
2005
=1,30$
*=3%
=2%
2006

1=(1+*)/(1+)

2006 = 1,30(1+0,03)/(1+0,02)
=1,3127$
1(3.5)
(1)/=(*)/(1+)
e * (3.6)

*=3%
=2%

e=*=32=1%

OEconomist.
&

Big Mac
Big Mac
*=$3
=2,57
/$
$,
1,30$

:
=*/
=3/2,57
=1,17$
(1=$1,30)
(1=$1,17),
$
11%=
[(1,301,17)/1,17]*100

$,
.
&
.

P=2,57
P*=$3

*/=(3/1,30)=2,31.

q=2,57/2,31=1,11

q=P/(P*/)

.
&
&.

,
:

,
.

:
.
().
R:.
P:
Y:.
.
R*:$.
P*:
Y*:.
:,.,,
1,35. .
,.

,.

.:
=P*/P (2)()
A,
:
/P=L(R,Y)(3) M*/P*=L(R,Y)(4)
P P*(3)(4)
(2):
=(*/){L(R,Y)/L*(R*,Y*)} (5)

(5)
,,
.

(2)
.(5)
,
,.
(2)(

).
(5)

,,,.

(2)
,:
dlnE=dlnP*dlnP (6),

.(6):
dE/E=*(7)()
dE/E*

.(7)

.(7)
,:
=*ee (8)
(8)

.
(1),

=R* R
(8),

=R* R=*ee (9)

(9),,

.(9),
:
R**e=R e (10)
(10),,
,,
((Fisher)).

:.

().R:
.
.
R*:$.

:,.,,
1,40.
.,.
:
.
,.
,
.,
(o).
M: R.
M$:R* e, e,
:
(1)
. R()
.R*

.(1)
,
,,
,R*e
R*,
,...
.
.

1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
10)
11)
12)

13)
14)
15)
16)

17)
18)

19)

20)
21) ,

22)

23)
24)
25)()

26)
27) (.. , , ,
)
28)
29)

30)

31)

32)
33)
34) Bretton
Woods ( )

1)

.,,

,
.
.
,
.
,

.
2)
,
,
,.
,
:
.
,
.,.
.
3)
,

.
4)

.
,
,
.
,,
.,

,.

.
,
.
5)

,,.
,
,,
,.

,
.,
,
.,
,
,.

.
,
,
.
6)

,
.
7)

,
.
.
8)

.
,
,
.
,
.
.

,
,
.

.
.
9)

,.

,
..
10)

.Pj*xe=Pj,Pj*
,Pj
e
.,
,
..

,.
P*xe=P,*,
.
, e=P/P*.

.
,
.,

.
,
.
11)
.

.=ex(P*/P).
.
(,
)
,
.,
,
,
.
12)

,,

.
13)

S=(mm*)(*)+[(s+1)s].

..

.
14) ,

,
,
.
.
,
,.
,
,,
.

.
.,
,
.
,
,
.
15)

,
,.
16)
,

,
.

.
,.,

.
17)
,
.

.
.

Tobin.

,,
.
.
.,
.

,
.
18)
,

,,,
.
19)

,
,

.
20)

.
,
,
,
.
,.
,
,
,
.,,
.
,,
,.
21)

,
.
,
,
,,
,
.
,

,
.
,
.,

.
,
,
.
22)

,.

.
,
.

,
.

.
.
23)Bretton
Woods

,
+1%.

.,
.
25%
,
25%.
.35,

,75%.
,,

.,

.1969,

.10%
.
1971,20
3
.

1,
..
,
.

You might also like