Period Month Demand Forecast |__ |

1 Jan 587 -
2 Feb 572 -
3 Mar 550 -
4 Apr 561 569.67
5 May 570 561.00
6 Jun 556 560.33
7 Jul 539 562.33
8 Aug 567 555.00
9 Sept 561 554.00
10 Oct 561 555.67
11 Nov 542 563.00
12 Dec 548 554.67
=6714 = 5035.67 =30.67

Table 1 Simple Moving Average

Forecast Accuracy
MAD 97.33/9 10.81
MAPE 97.33/6714 1%
CUMMULTIVE ERROR -30.67 -3067
AVERAGE ERROR -3.41 -3.41
 |__ |
Error
- -
- -
- -
-8.67 8.67
9.00 9.00
-4.33 4.33
-23.33 23.33
12.00 12.00
7.00 7.00
5.33 5.33
-21.00 21.00
-6.67 6.67
97.33
=30.67

1 Simple Moving Average

Period Month Demand Forecast Error
1 Jan 587 - -
2 Feb 572 - -
3 Mar 550 - -
4 Apr 561 564.00 -3
5 May 570 559.90 10.10
6 Jun 556 563.30 -7.30
7 Jul 539 561.20 -22.20
8 Aug 567 550.30 16.70
9 Sept 561 556.40 4.60
10 Oct 561 558.40 2.60
11 Nov 542 562.20 -20.20
12 Dec 548 551.50 -3.50
5027.20
=6714 =22.20

Table 2: Weighted Average

Forecast Accuracy
MAD 90.20/9 10.02
MAPE 90.20/6714 0.01
Cummulative Error -22.20 -22.20
Average Error 1.84 1.84
 |
__ | -
-
-
3
10.10
7.30
22.20
16.70
4.60
2.60
20.20
3.50
=90.20

hted Average
Period Month Demand = 0.35
1 Jan 587 -
2 Feb 572 587.00
3 Mar 550 581.75
4 Apr 561 570.64
5 May 570 567.26
6 Jun 556 568.22
7 Jul 539 563.94
8 Aug 567 555.21
9 Sept 561 559.34
10 Oct 561 559.92
11 Nov 542 560.30
12 Dec 548 553.89
=6714 = 6227.48

TABLE 3: Simple Exponential Smoothing

FORECAST ACCURACY
MAD 135.01/11 12.27
MAPE 135.01/6714 2%
CUMMULATIVE ERROR -100.48 -100.48
AVERAGE ERROR -9.13 -9.13
 Error |__|
- -
-15.00 15.00
-31.75 31.75
-9.64 9.64
2.74 2.74
-12.22 12.22
-24.94 24.94
11.79 11.79
1.66 1.66
1.08 1.08
-18.30 18.30
-5.89 5.89
=100.48 135.01

ential Smoothing

FORECAST ACCURACY
Period Month Demand = 0.35
1 Jan 587 - trend
2 Feb 572 587.00 1.00
3 Mar 550 581.75 -1.81
4 Apr 561 570.64 -6.00
5 May 570 567.26 -4.82
6 Jun 556 568.22 -2.22
7 Jul 539 563.94 -3.14
8 Aug 567 555.21 -5.66
9 Sept 561 559.34 -1.26
10 Oct 561 559.92 -0.43
11 Nov 542 560.30 -0.07
12 Dec 548 553.89 -2.92
=6714 = 6337.48

Table 4: ADJUSTED EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHI

Forecast Accuracy
MAD 132.01/11 12
MAPE 132.01/6714 2%
CUMMULATIVE ERROR -73.17 -73.17
AVERAGE ERROR -6.65 -6.65
 =0.45 Error |_-_(|)
- - -
588.00 -16.00 16.00
579.94 -29.94 29.94
564.64 -3.64 3.64
562.45 7.55 7.55
566.00 -10.00 10.00
560.80 -21.8 21.80
549.56 17.44 17.44
558.08 2.92 2.92
559.49 1.51 1.51
560.23 -18.23 18.23
550.98 -2.98 2.98
=6200.17 =73.17 =132.01

ED EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
Period Month Demand _ ^ a+bt
1 Jan 587 587 1 571.96
2 Feb 572 1144 4 569.7
3 Mar 550 1650 6 567.43
4 Apr 561 2244 16 565.16
5 May 570 2850 25 562.90
6 Jun 556 3336 36 560.63
7 Jul 539 3773 49 558.37
8 Aug 567 4536 64 556.10
9 Sept 561 5049 81 553.84
10 Oct 561 5610 100 551.57
11 Nov 542 5962 121 549.30
12 Dec 548 6576 144 547.04
=6714
43,317 650 6714

TABLE 5: LEAST SQUARES

FORECAST ACCURACY
MAD 105.80/12 8.82
MAPE 105.80/6714 2%
CUMMULATIVE ERROR -3.14 -3.41
AVERAGE ERROR -0.28 -0.28
Error |__|

15.04 15.04
2.30 2.30
-17.43 17.43
-4.16 4.16
7.10 7.10
-4.63 4.63
-19.37 19.37
10.90 10.90
7.16 7.16
9.43 9.43
-7.30 7.30
0.96 0.96
-3.41 105.80
FORECAST METHOD MAD MAPE CUMMULATIVE ERROR
Simple-Moving Average 10.81 1% -30.67
Weighted Average 10.02 1% -22.2
Simple- Exponential Smoot 12.27 2% -100.48
Adjusted-Exponential Smoo 12.00 2% -73.17
Least Squares 8.82 2% -3.41
TABLE 6: FORECAST COMPARISON
AVERAGE ERROR
-3.41
-2.47
-9.13
-6.65
-0.28