International Negotiation 25 November 2017

Flores, Dustin Richie S. Mr. Jumel Estranero

Bachelor of Arts in Foreign Service / FS401

Swinging the Invisible Claw: Reflections from the Russian Involvement in the War
in Donbass

The worst peace is better than the best war.

- Yiddish Proverb
I. Abstract
Violent protests soon became an armed conflict in 2014 Ukraine. Sudden arrival of Little
Green Men while the chaos was ensuing. The cities of Donetsk and Luhansk have raised
flags other than what the law permits. The War in Donbass is the struggle between the
Ukrainian government and the separatist movement in the easternmost region of Ukraine.
The war caused thousands of deaths and loss of property, in fact the numbers are still
counting as this paper was still being written. This paper aims to understand the political
implications of the Russian Involvement in the War in Donbass. As a literature-based
research, data was gathered from readily available sources. The results analysed the
scenario socially and politically, trying to know the next course of action.
Key Words: Ukraine, Russia, conflict, separatism

Introduction1
The War in Donbass erupted in the April of 2014 amidst the shaken Ukraine. Months
later the Russian forces suddenly entered the Ukrainian borders without insignia nor
patches2 supporting the pro-Russian separatist self-declared independent states of
Peoples Republic of Donetsk (DNR) and Luhansk Parliamentary Republic (LNR). During
the first phase of the war, Putin denied neither the Russian presence in Ukraine nor
support to the separatist movements.3 Nevertheless, the United States Western Europe
and the United Nations saw Russia as responsible for the armed conflict and therefore

1
I would like to thank Mr. Jumel Estranero for this opportunity of having to write a paper like this.
2
Shevchenko, Vitaly. ""Little green men" or "Russian invaders"?" BBC News. March 11, 2014. Accessed November
12, 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26532154.
3
Chappell, Bill, and Mark Memmott. "Putin Says Those Aren't Russian Forces In Crimea." NPR. March 04, 2014.
Accessed November 12, 2017. https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/03/04/285653335/putin-says-
those-arent-russian-forces-in-crimea.
held sanctions against the country. The sanction caused a financial crisis in Russia, their
currency and GDP went low, inflation went high, and slowly losing financial reserves. 4
Even with a declining economy, Putin still hasnt withdrawn his army in Ukraine this of
course meant that he is willing to sacrifice something to gain another.

Years earlier, in 2008 the Russian forces invaded its southern neighbor Georgia,
accusing the latter of harming Russian civilians5. The invasion resulted in a Russian
victory making South Ossetia, the former Georgian territory, a self-governing body with
only Russia and Abkhazia recognizing its sovereignty. Western countries condemned the
invasion, however did not hold sanctions George W. Bush, the former US president,
considered deploying American military in support of Georgia, but aborted to do so to
avoid further conflict with Russia. Instead, they called for an immediate ceasefire.
Nevertheless, the invasion challenged the capability of the Organisation for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in maintaining peace in post-USSR Europe.

In talks of security, the same could be implied with the war in the Donbass region. Could
peace be really maintained with Putins foreign policy? Nonetheless, it is quite obvious
that this time Russia received a harsher reaction from the international community.

The Peoples Republic of Donetsk and Luhansk Parliamentary Republic formed the
United Armed Forces of Novorossiya with an estimated 20,000 active personnel in July
20146. The DNR/LNR employed guerilla tactics to deal with the Ukrainian military, unlike
other conflicts the separatists were able to deal significant damage against a sovereign
country which resulted to a scale where one could insist that the war in Donbass is a civil
war. Both sides tried to communicate with each other where multiple ceasefire
agreements were held, but failed to be maintained as both sides claimed that the other

4
"U.S. sanctions alone didn't crush Russian economy." @politifact. Accessed November 12, 2017.
http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2017/feb/21/anthony-tata/how-have-sanctions-impacted-
russias-economy/.
5
"Medvedev: Russia's top priority in S.Ossetia war was to defend our citizens, interests (RT EXCLUSIVE)." RT
International. Accessed November 13, 2017. https://www.rt.com/news/georgia-south-ossetia-medvedev-
interview-012/.
6
"The army of the Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics has 20,000 fighters - Gubarev." TASS. Accessed
November 13, 2017. http://tass.com/world/739790.
violated the agreements7,8. As of 2017, the conflict is in stalemate; the war claimed 10,090
lives9 and numbers will rise due to the sporadic skirmishes.

II.
A. Statement of the Problem

Based on the given information, this paper intends to answer the following research
questions;

1. How did the situation in Ukraine escalated in becoming an armed conflict?

2. How did the separatists (Peoples Republic of Donetsk and Luhansk Parliamentary
Republic) fare against the Ukrainian Military?
3. What is the political implication of the Russian intervention in the Donbass War?

B. Methodology
This study employs historical methodology to unravel the factors and decisions made
that lead to the armed conflict. The researcher used information from readily available
secondary sources such as news articles, journals, dissertations, thesis and other internet
sources to critically asses the scenario and create a substantive conclusion with a well-
grounded foundation, this allowed the researcher to discuss trends and social changes in
Ukraine.

III. Review of Related Literature

The Ukrainian crisis can be traced back centuries ago. Both originating from East
Slavic Tribes, Russia and Ukraine shares an intimate history. From the rise of the
Principality of Moscow, being vassals to the Golden Horde, the rise of the Tsardom of
Russia and transformation to becoming an empire, and the uprising of the Bolsheviks to
the formation of the Soviet Union Ukrainians seemed to be always under subject of the
Russian will. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 split the country from 15 republics
(Armenia, Azerbaijan, Byelorussia, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizia, Latvia,

7
Sputnik. "Donbass Republics Report Numerous Violations of New Ceasefire by Kiev Troops." Sputnik
International. April 01, 2017. Accessed November 13, 2017.
https://sputniknews.com/europe/201704011052184869-ukrainian-forces-violate-ceasefire/.
8
"PressTV." Russia accuses Ukraine of ceasefire breach. Accessed November 13, 2017.
http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2017/08/31/533554/Russia-Foreign-Ministry-Ukraine-ceasefire-violation.
9
Rybak, Vitalii. "Number of those killed in Donbas war rises to 10,090 - UN report -." Euromaidan Press. June 13,
2017. Accessed November 13, 2017. http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/06/13/number-of-those-killed-in-donbas-
war-rises-to-10090-un-report/#arvlbdata.
Lithuania, Moldova, Russian SFSR, Tajikistan, Turkmenia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan) to 15
independent states. The Soviet influence lasted for decades, that even after the fall and
Union and political and economic reformation the so called Soviet spirit haunts its
former subjects.
Post-Soviet Ukraine

After the fall, the Ukrainian people had moved for absolute independence, thus
ratified its own constitution, established a unitary semi-presidential constitutional republic,
and elected its first president Leonid Kravchuk. Ukraine in his term tried to pursue a plan
and a market oriented economy but neither did work as most of the production were state-
owned, therefore employing a command economy, after all the private sector only have
a contribution of 15% of Ukraines GDP.10 The communist elite stood in power even after
the declaration of independence, controlling and influencing politics and economy to their
own benefit which attributed a disastrous hyperinflation.11 Nevertheless, Kravchuk was
successful making independence peaceful, but with an economy that is needed to be
fixed.

Former prime minister, then former president, Leonid Kuchma took power after
Kravchuks term. Unlike the latter, Kuchma advocated pro-Russian reforms, the new
president wanted to orient Ukraines economy with the Russians along with their new
market economy.12 Ukraines hyperinflation persisted throughout the 90s even with
Kuchmas economic strategy. He advocated the restoration of the management of the
economy by the state with less intervention of the bureaucracy and the administration as
inspired by the Soviet-style economy planning as emphasized by Zviglyanich:

This resembles a definition of the primary goals of the Soviet style five-year plans
that always promised to satisfy the constantly growing needs of the Soviet people.
This goal is to guide all efforts aimed at creation of a new society in Ukraine.13

Kuchma applied the Soviet-style economy, but with his own modification. He
pursued a pragmatic economy with the help of civil societies, therefore encouraging
competition of entrepreneurs which shall be protected by civil laws laws that should
protect privatization.14 By the year 2000, the Ukrainian GDP rose, crediting Kuchma for
his efforts. Kuchma expressed his interest in having a partnership with the European

10
"Leonid Kravchuk: Nation-Building and Hyperinflation, 1991 94."
https://piie.com/publications/chapters_preview/4273/02iie4273.pdf.
11
Ibid.
12
Eke, Steven. "Europe | Profile: Leonid Kuchma." BBC News. September 26, 2002. Accessed November 16, 2017.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2283925.stm.
13
Zviglyanich, Volodymyr. "The State and Economic Reform in Ukraine."
https://www2.gwu.edu/~ieresgwu/assets/docs/demokratizatsiya%20archive/03-2_Zviglyanich.PDF.
14
Ibid.
Union, at the same time having forward relations with Russia and the Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS) he even signed an agreement with NATO, hinting that
Ukraine might become a new member.

By the near end of Kuchmas term, he was entangled with political corruptions;
such as the killing of Ukrainian Journalist Georgy Gongadze in the year 2000 15 which
lowered his popularity. By the next presidential election in 2004, Kuchma endorsed Viktor
Yanukovych. Yanukovych won, however, months later his term was cut short due to
cases of rigging the elections, thus resulting to the Orange Revolution which ousted the
incumbent president and had been replaced by the oppositions leader Viktor
Yushchenko.16

Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned by dioxin by unknown means, nevertheless he

won the revote as ordered by the Supreme court of Ukraine and assumed power in the
year 2005. A Ukrainian nationalist and Western oriented, the Ukrainian president
expressed his will of having Ukraine to be part of the EU;

Democracy is a value which unites us all. It is the cornerstone of our prosperity. I

am also proud to be here representing a country which has built a new symbol on
the European continent. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, we now also have the
Orange revolution. This has shown that totalitarianism is no longer possible in
Europe. The people have chosen the path of freedom and truth.

The borders of Europe now stretch from the coast of Portugal to beyond Kiev. We
have chosen Europe: it is not just a question of geography, but a matter of shared
spiritual and moral values. We have seen the election of a second president, this
time in a transparent and democratic manner. It was the development of a civil
society which made our victory possible.

It is almost a new nation which has been born, and you in the European Parliament
are its godparents. Your support was a great symbol and encouragement to us in
our struggle in the difficult month of December. Here in the European Parliament
we understood that a new democratic society was possible in the Ukraine. I want
to thank you for your support in our struggle for freedom.

Ukraine still has much to do to become a full member of the European family, but
we are all now united by values, history and aspirations. We have embarked on a
path of reforms. Like making bread, you need the right ingredients and a lot of
work. European integration is the only path open for Ukraine. It is time to move

15
Jazeera, Al. "Ukraine ex-leader charged over murder." Ukraine News | Al Jazeera. March 24, 2011. Accessed
November 16, 2017. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2011/03/2011324153540928659.html.
16
Crouch, David. "Secrets of journalist's murder cast long shadow over Ukraine's orange revolution." The Guardian.
April 06, 2005. Accessed November 16, 2017.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2005/apr/06/pressandpublishing.ukraine.
beyond words and take action to develop democracy, the rule of law, freedom of
the media and to tackle corruption. We must not lose this unique opportunity to
bring the EU and Ukraine closer.

It was visionary of the European Parliament to support Ukraines European

aspirations. We will do all we can to make the Action Plan work, and extending it
was a positive gesture, but the neighbourhood policy has already been overtaken
by events. We hope that at the end of the Action Plan, in 2007, we will be in a
position to begin EU membership negotiations. Ukraine is already a part of an
integrated Europe. We are able to make an application under Article 49 and will
aim to meet the Copenhagen criteria.

We know that the largest part of the work needs to be done on our side. Without
action from us, the EUs support will not help us. But we already have a plan of
action for the next five years with EU membership as our objective. We want a
transparent economy, alleviation of taxes, less corruption and an independent
media and judiciary. While I am President, no one will hear of human rights abuses
in Ukraine. We also have much work to do to adapt our administration to European
standards.

We have plans for important social reforms, for judicial reform, to tackle illegal
immigration and the drugs trade. All these will be based on human rights and
respect for the dignity of human beings. We aim to implement these changes
meticulously and at all levels, doing all this within the European spirit. It is a
European philosophy which underpins my work and that of the government.

Ukraines definitive choice of Europe cannot be denied. Being part of the Atlantic
alliance will further strengthen our civil society, rule of law and human rights. But
we also want to deepen relations with the Russian Federation. Moving closer to
Europe does not prevent closer cooperation with Russia. Ukraines membership
of the EU and NATO is not against Russian interests on the contrary, a stable
Ukraine could help bring Russia closer to Europe.

We have also developed a new regional policy, with our first action being to work
for a peaceful resolution of the Transdniestria problem. We want to reach out with
cross-border cooperation and development of energy networks to bring European
standards into play from Baku to the western shores of the EU.

Nothing is guaranteed, we still need to develop values on a common basis. You

need solid foundations, or a house will collapse, and, as the Bible says, a house
divided upon itself cannot stand. You have witnessed the emergence of a new
colour Orange on the European map. You know Ukraine can be part of the
 future of Europe. Now is the time for concrete action. It will not be easy, but
together we can achieve our common goal..17

The European Union wanted to forge stronger economic ties with Ukraine,
however not to the point of further expanding its membership; EU, however, invites
Ukraine, Georgia, and the Balkan States to a neighbourhood policy. 18 This would only
mean grants of loans and aids for building infrastructures and opening the door for free
trade. The rationale behind not wanting Ukraine to become a member lies to the fact that
developing economies pose a burden on the Unions developed economies as witnessed
with Greeces debt crisis. Other than economic stress that Ukraine may bring, issues on
mass migration from the country to richer EU members is quite a concern to both public
and the administration. Nevertheless, the neighbourhood policy implication means that
the Ukrainian populace have been leaning towards Westernisation seeing that the
grass is greener on the other side.
Yushchenkos presidential career was not a stable one once, he dismissed
Orange Revolution members that gained position afterwards. His former ally Yulia
Tymoshenko became part of the governments opposition nevertheless, Tymoshenko
believes that Ukraine is better off being with Western Europe and under the protection of
NATO. Yushchenko dissolved the Ukrainian parliament for the instability caused by the
Orange Revolution as it aimed for change in the legislature and the amendment of the
Ukrainian constitution, which divided political parties and ended without a decisive
outcome. What Yushchenko did was illegal, but the former president dismissed three
members of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine therefore, no action was made to put the
case into lawsuit.19
The Euromaidan Protest

In February 2010, Yushchenko ended his term. Pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych

ran for presidency again, having won against Yulia Tymoshenko by 54% vs 41%
respectively.20 Yanukovych immediately imprisoned his rival for abuse of power. 21 His
victory and rise to power will soon cause the worst political crisis that Ukraine will face so
far.

17
"EP - Viktor Yushchenko 'Ukraine's future is in the EU'." EU@UN. February 22, 2005. Accessed November 16,
2017. http://eu-un.europa.eu/ep-viktor-yushchenko-ukraines-future-is-in-the-eu/.
18
"Europe | Yushchenko seeks EU membership." BBC News. January 25, 2005. Accessed November 16, 2017.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4204149.stm
19
"Ukrainians Disillusioned with President Yushchenko." VOA. January 12, 2010. Accessed November 17, 2017.
https://www.voanews.com/a/ukrainians-disillusioned-with-president-yushchenko-81345692/169756.html.
20
Osborn, Andrew. "Ukraine election: Viktor Yanukovych claims victory." The Telegraph. February 07, 2010.
Accessed November 17, 2017. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/7184349/Ukraine-
election-Viktor-Yanukovych-claims-victory.html
21
"Ukraine crisis: Timeline." BBC News. November 13, 2014. Accessed November 17, 2017.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26248275.
 The UkraineEuropean Union Association Agreement was supposed to be signed
in 2013, however Yanukovych delayed the signing of the agreement and insisted that
Ukraine has better opportunities with Russia, which caused the strong anti-government
sentiment from the people.

Movements erupted in the 21st of November, the protest was widely made up by
the youth. Protestors gathered in the Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square),
pressuring the government in integrating with the European Union, calling out corruption,
and human rights abuses made by Yanukovychs government. The protest resulted in
civil unrest. Thus the Euromaidan was born. Euromaidan is a portmanteau of the Maidan
Nazalezhnosti and Europe.

By the 17th of December year 2013, Yanukovych signed a deal with Russia, Putin
bought the $15 billion Ukranian debt.22 The sudden change of policies brought by
Yanukovych was received very negatively by many.23

After the Berkut (Ukrainian Special Forces) brutally beaten up protestors in the
Maidan Nezalezhnosti sentiment against the government have grown massively. The
Berkut was supposed to deter organised crimes, but soon became tools and henchmen
of the government in crushing demonstrations; quite much, they have become a symbol
of the Yanukovychs unilateral approach in dealing with protestors, despite numerous
agreements with the opposition parties which have been deemed as unnecessary and
repetitive.
Due to harsh conditions and brutal methods of the government forces, the
protestors opted in barricading, using stolen shields and other materials in protecting
themselves. Making the political climate worse than the scenario that caused the Orange
Revolution

By the 21st of February year 2014, protestors stormed presidential administration

buildings, at the same day Yanukovych was gone and is under exile in Russia; the
following days later the Ukrainian Parliament issued an arrest warrant to the ousted
president.24 The revolution resulted in around 100 deaths, 577 wounded, and 369
hospitalised.25 Kiev, a city known for its projection of the wonderful east Slavic culture and
rich history, became once again a battlefield. After the protests, the provisional
government was established in February 27 having Oleksandr Turchynov as the acting

22
Ibid.
23
Shveda, Yuriy. "Ukraine's revolution of dignity: The dynamics of Euromaidan." Ukraine's revolution of dignity:
The dynamics of Euromaidan 7, no. 1 (January 2016): 85-91.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1879366515000305
24
Ibid.
25
Black, Phil, Nick Walsh, and Michael Pearson. "Diplomatic talks in Ukraine end at dawn, a day after 100 may have
died." CNN. February 21, 2014. Accessed November 18, 2017.
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/02/20/world/europe/ukraine-protests/index.html.
head of state and Arseniy Yatsenyuk as the head of the government. In October 26, a
parliamentary election was held having created the new Ukrainian government in
December 2; Petro Poroshenko as the president and Arseniy Yatsenyuk as the prime
minister.

The situation in Ukraine is no worse than countries with poorer conditions, the
Euromaidan movement have a socio-political implication that revolutions should have
been happening, however, according to Shveda and Ho Park (2015):

All those factors were reasons that caused the Ukrainian people to resist against
the then current power elites and institutions. However, a deterioration of the social
and economic situation and crippling of civil rights and liberties are not sufficient
reasons for social revolution. There are countries that are evaluated to have worse
indicators but without any sign of revolution. Social revolutions start when people
are utterly disappointed by the ability of the government to improve their life (the
so-called second famine effect).26

This implies that the material aspect plays a large role in setting up the mood of
the people, but it still within the society and up to the individuals to make use of material
reality in setting up social consciousness. It is also deemed that it has been embedded
with the Ukrainian people, especially from the Western Region, to take action against
ruthless authoritarian regimes as witnessed on how they denounced their affiliation from
the former Soviet Union. As mentioned, most of the protestors were the youth particularly
the students. They played a major role in initiating protests against the government, of
course they have become the targets as well. Nonetheless, they were successful in
setting up the new government in hopes of having their country achieve a genuine
progress.

The overthrowing of the pro-Russian government only means that the Russian
influence in Eastern Europe is decreasing. It must be noted on how the government was
overthrown without military intervention. While pro-Russian sentiments have been
decreasing in Ukraine, nationalism is on the rise therefore right-leaning political parties
have slowly gaining popularity in the country.
The East Ukraine Crisis

While the chaos in Kiev was ensuing Armed troops without patches or insignia
were seen inside Crimean Peninsula, taking opportunity of the destabilized Ukraine.
Armed groups in civilian clothing have taken over the parliament and raised the Russian

26
Ibid.
flag in Crimea before February had ended.27 It is unknown whether the armed troops were
pro-Russian militants, contractors, or special forces but according to Jenzen-Jones,28
the militants were using Russian weapon systems, even though Soviet/Russian weapons
have been observed in use by other countries, firearms like the AS Val and VSS sniper
rifles strongly suggests that there was a presence of Russian special forces. In March 6
Europe, on alert, sent the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)
to inspect the matter, however was blocked by armed militants with no insignia. Ukrainian
Navy Rear Admiral Denis Berezovsky, declared that his loyalty belongs to Crimea and
did not recognise that newly formed Ukrainian government this only implies that he had
defected to the pro-Russian group in the Peninsula. In March 11, Crimean law makers
held a referendum that made Crimea an independent state.29 March 17, the independent
state of Crimea formally applied to be annexed by the Russian federation; the
referendums were deemed questionable by international community,30 the government
of Kiev stated that it will not recognise the Crimean independence nor the territory being
Russian in return, the Kremlin did not recognise the legitimacy of the new Ukrainian
government (20).

27
Harding, Luke, Harriet Salem, and Shaun Walker. "Crimean parliament seized by unknown pro-Russian gunmen."
The Guardian. February 27, 2014. Accessed November 18, 2017.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/27/crimean-parliament-seized-by-unknown-pro-russian-gunmen.
28
Jenzen-Jones, N.R. . "GM-94 grenade launchers in use with Russian forces in Crimea." Armament Research
Services. March 2, 2014. Accessed November 18, 2017. http://armamentresearch.com/gm-94-grenade-launchers-
in-use-with-russian-forces-in-crimea/.
29
Paramaguru, Kharunya . "Crimea Moves to Become an Independent State." Time.com, March 11, 2014.
http://time.com/19699/crimea-russia-ukraine-independence/.
30
Hewitt, Gavin. "Crimean parliament formally applies to join Russia." BBC News. March 17, 2014. Accessed
November 19, 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26609667.
 1.1 Ukraine-Crimea-Russia Map. Source: BBC

By late March, the Ukrainian navy had finally withdrawn from Crimea being taken over
by the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The month had been concluded with the UN General
Assembly condemning the annexation and declared the referendum illegal. The US and
IMF gave loans worth $20 bn.31 to Ukraine as a means of rebuilding the country. The
destablised Ukraine served as an opportunity for Eastern Ukrainians to assert
themselves.
The following month of April, the crisis on Donbass started. Pro-Russian activists
in the oblasts (administrative regions) of Donetsk and Luhansk declared independence
from Ukraine, thus forming the Peoples Republic of Donetsk and Luhansk Parliamentary
Republic. The separatists were able to arm themselves from stolen Ukrainian armories

31
Mardell, Mark. "Ukraine: UN condemns Crimea vote as IMF and US back loans." BBC News. March 27, 2014.
Accessed November 19, 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26776416.
and believed being supplied by Russia.32 Soon the Ukrainian military launched offensives
to recover lost cities in the Donbass region, thus the War in Donbass began.

Punishing Campaigns

1.2 Approximate Rebel-controlled territory in Eastern Ukraine, May-June 2014.

Source: BBC
The first battles between the Ukrainian army and DNR/LNR militia was in
Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are forward cities in the middle of
Donetsk and Luhansk with a distance of 15-km from each other. Before the Ukrainian
army launched offensives, the DNR militia captured the city and the administrative
buildings of Kramatorsk, they tried to assimilate the city to their quasi-state as part of their
expansions. The Ukrainian military launched counter offensives in April and retaken the
city in the July 5. While the battle was ongoing, the Ukrainian military also launched
simultaneous offensive in the port city of Mariupol and the Donetsk International Airport

32
Grove, Thomas, and Warren Strobel. "Special Report: Where Ukraine's separatists get their weapons." Reuters.
July 29, 2014. Accessed November 25, 2017. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-arms-
specialreport/special-report-where-ukraines-separatists-get-their-weapons-
idUSKBN0FY0UA20140729?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews.
in May and both were captured by June; at the same month, the Ukrainian military tried
to advance in the outskirts of Luhansk but failed.33

The skirmishes in July were rather controversial. The LNR militia barraged rockets
in Ukrainian controlled Zelenopillya south of Luhansk city killing 30 including a colonel;34
near Zelenopillya, the Ukrainian military tried to cut off rebel supplies in Shakhtarsk Raion
but they failed to do so; while the battle was ongoing in July 17 the civilian Malaysian
Airline Flight 17 was shot down by what was believed a Soviet BUK anti-air missile35 at
the same time the DNR was able to shot down Ukrainian SU-25 fighter plane. The
Ukrainian authorities declared a one-day suspension of operations to investigate the
incident.

In late July, the Ukrainian military attacked Horlivka - the following month, they
attacked Ilovaisk. Amidst the battle, a refugee convoy Novosvitlivka was attacked from
what was believed multiple rocket launcher to which the Ukrainian authorities blame to
LNR, but according to DNR Prime Minister Andrei Purgin it was the Ukrainian military as
he stated that militias have no knowledge of using such weapon systems.36 By the end of
August, the Ukrainian military tried to capture the coast city of Novoazovsk near Mariupol,
but was defeated; the Ukrainian President Poroshenko claimed that it was the Russians
that did the fighting.37 The battles in Horlivka and Ilovaisk ended in early September,
Horlivka ending in a ceasefire, but the militants claimed they were still being shelled by
enemy artillery;38 and Ukrainian were troops defeated after being encircled in Ilovaisk.
The survivors of the encirclement claimed that they saw Russian forces together with the
DNR militia to which Putin had denied.39

While the battles in Horlivka and Ilovaisk were ending, the DNR launched a
counterattack in Mariupol after the success in Novoazovsk, but ended in a ceasefire this
due when in September 5 representatives of Ukraine, Russia, DNR, and LNR went in
Minsk, Belarus to sign the ceasefire agreement which was overseen by the OSCE, this

33
"Ukraine: deaths reported in Luhansk border attack." Euronews, March 6, 2014.
http://www.euronews.com/2014/06/03/ukraine-deaths-reported-in-luhansk-border-attack.
34
"Ukraine conflict: Many soldiers dead in 'rocket strike'." BBC News. July 11, 2014. Accessed November 19, 2017.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28261737.
35
Ensor, Josie. "MH17: what we know two days after Malaysia Airlines crash over Ukraine." The Telegraph. July 19,
2014. Accessed November 19, 2017.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10977644/MH17-what-we-know-two-days-after-
Malaysia-Airlines-crash-over-Ukraine.html.
36
Balmforth, Richard, and Natalia Zinets. "Dozens killed in attack on convoy, Ukraine says; rebels deny firing
rocket." Reuters. August 18, 2014. Accessed November 20, 2017. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-
crisis/dozens-killed-in-attack-on-convoy-ukraine-says-rebels-deny-firing-rocket-idUSKBN0GI0YK20140818.
37
"'Russian troops deployed' in Ukraine - Petro Poroshenko." BBC News. August 28, 2014. Accessed November 25,
2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28967526.
38
Sputnik. "Kiev Forces Continue Shelling Despite Ceasefire: Donetsk Militia." Sputnik International. September 06,
2014. Accessed November 20, 2017. https://sptnkne.ws/gb26.
39
Grytsenko, Oksana . "Survivors recall Ilovaisk massacre." Kyiv Post, September 3, 2014.
was known to be the Minsk Protocol. The Protocol urges both side to pull 15-km back
both sides heavy weapon systems from the line of contact creating a 30-km security
zone; immediate call of stopping and banning operations; establishing no-fly zone in the
security zone; having a OSCE mission to monitor the area; and removing foreign
mercenaries in the region.40

The Protocol did not last as the DNR had been barraging Ukranian forward
positions in Mariupol, making the latter to reinforce the area.41 The ceasefire proved to be
fragile because in September 28 the DNR launched an attack in the Donetsk Airport. The
battle saw an extensive use of armoured fighting vehicles on both fight; the second battle
of Donetsk Airport was larger. It wasnt until next year, 21 January 2015, when the battle
ended with the DNR being victorious; Ukraine President Poroshenko stated that there
were 9000 Russian troops that participated in the battle.42

In 12 February 2015, in attempt to conduct a more effective ceasefire, Ukraine,

Russia, France, and Germany signed the Minsk II as overseen again by the OSCE, unlike
the first version Minsk II was more specific; weapon systems are withdrawn in the
frontline base on their effective range; a much more effective OSCE monitoring by using
satellites and radar; pardoning involved DNR/LNR officials in the conflict; releasing war
prisoners and hostages in the 5th day after the ceasfire; humanitarian aid that shall not be
hampered by either side; restoration of business like social transfers and payment
pensions in the conflicted area; undisrupted DNR and LNR local elections as per
Ukrainian law and constitutional reform of which after thereof Ukraine will regain border
control; withdrawal of foreign armed groups; a constitutional reform that will recognise
and respect the special status of DNR and LNR.43 The ceasefire once again was failure
as it did not stop the battle in Debaltseve northeast of Donetsk city, instead the exchange
of fire became more intense as strategic locations were under constant shelling. 44 The
battle ended in February 20 when the Ukrainian military was forced to retreat.
No major engagements nor operations happened after the February peace
agreement, however skirmishes, stand-offs, and exchange of fire persisted in Shyrokyne
and Marinka. In March, however, the Ukrainian government ratified bills that concerns on
the greater autonomy that will be granted for DNR and LNR, it was received by the latter

40
"Ukraine crisis: Nato top general says truce 'in name only'." BBC News. September 21, 2014. Accessed November
20, 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29299092.
41
Dronova, Kateryna. "Minsk Protocol is a Big Failure?" VoxUkraine. April 24, 2017. Accessed November 05, 2017.
https://voxukraine.org/2014/10/17/minsk-protocol-is-a-big-failure/.
42
"'Seven Ukraine troops die' in deadliest post-truce attack." BBC News. September 29, 2014. Accessed November
20, 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29415162.
43
"Ukraine ceasefire: New Minsk agreement key points." BBC News. February 12, 2015. Accessed November 20,
2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31436513.
44
"Ukraine crisis: Fierce fighting after Minsk peace deal." BBC News. February 13, 2015. Accessed November 20,
2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31449981.
condemningly, stating that it will jeopardise the peace established by the February
agreement fearing that the bills ratified had rewritten the agreement in Minsk.45

In late October, the Ukrainian military captured two Russian military men who are
believed to be special forces, the two claimed they were doing reconnaissance during the
ceasefire;46 before the year had ended, in December Putin admitted there were Russian
forces in Ukraine however, not regular military men and denied there were any of his
forces in Crimea during the takeover.47
Novorossiya

After Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts declared themselves independent, they signed a
treaty to unify themselves forming Novorossiya in May 24, 2014 as reference to the
historical name given by the Russian Empire in the same region after being annexed from
the Turkish Empire in the 18th Century.48 Novorossiya or Union of Peoples Republic did
not materialise due to the difficulty imposed by the war, instead it has become an idea
and the relationship of DNR and LNR is colloquially known as such.49 After all, the
structure of Novorossiya conflicts with the Minsk II agreement.
Continued Conflic49t

In 11 August 2016, Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of terrorist plots in Crimea the
latter denied, however the protective Russian President announced a war game in the
Black Sea; testing the Russian Navy with its new headquarters in the Peninsula. 50 And
so in August 20, the war games were held with the presence of Putin; he emphasised in
his statement that Ukrainian military had wished to destabilise the newly established
Russian Crimea hoping that common sense will prevail. 51

45
"Ukraine, Moscow clash over rebel autonomy laws." ABS-CBN News. March 18, 2015. Accessed November 20,
2017. http://news.abs-cbn.com/global-filipino/world/03/18/15/ukraine-moscow-clash-over-rebel-autonomy-laws.
46
"Russian military intelligence officers captured in eastern Ukraine change story." Human Rights in Ukraine.
Accessed November 20, 2017. http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1445915293.
47
Walker, Shaun. "Putin admits Russian military presence in Ukraine for first time." The Guardian. December 17,
2015. Accessed November 20, 2017. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/17/vladimir-putin-admits-
russian-military-presence-ukraine.
48
Pike, John. "Military." Federal State of Novorossiya / Union of People's Republics. Accessed November 20, 2017.
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/novorossiya.htm.
49
"Ex-prime minister of unrecognised Donetsk republic: Theres no Novorossiya, but a false start." Ex-prime
minister of unrecognised Donetsk republic: There's no 'Novorossiya', but a false start. Accessed November 21,
2017. http://belsat.eu/en/news/ex-prime-minister-unrecognised-donetsk-republic-theres-no-novorossiya-its-false-
start/.
50
"Russia announces war games after accusing Ukraine of terrorist plot." GMA News Online. August 11, 2016.
Accessed November 21, 2017. http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/world/577297/russia-announces-war-
games-after-accusing-ukraine-of-terrorist-plot/story/.
51
"Putin flies into Crimea amid war games and tension." GMA News Online. August 20, 2016. Accessed November
21, 2017. http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/world/578301/putin-flies-into-crimea-amid-war-games-and-
tension/story/.
 Amidst the skirmishes, before the year 2016 had ended the battle Svitlodarsk
commenced, there was heavier exchange of fire between the Ukrainian military and LNR.
The latter claimed that they were under fire, hence they returned fire. 52 A ceasefire was
declared in December 24 to which both sides confirmed.53

In late January 2017, the Ukrainian launched an offensive in Avdiivka which is just
at least 20km away from Donetsk. The battle ended in a ceasefire in February 4 after the
newly elected US President Donald Trump stated that he will help in developing peace in
Europe.54 The Ukrainian military afterwards gained a foothold nearer to Donetsk. Light
skirmishes in the area persisted after the battle.
In May 17, the Ukrainian President Poroshenko had his website attacked by
hackers. The Ukrainian government accused Russia of hacking the website after the
government had filed sanctions against major Russian internet businesses, other than
the hacked website power grids, financial systems, and other infrastructures had been
infected by computer viruses.55 Months later, the Ukrainian leader criticised Russia for
arming the separatists, inciting that it would intensify the already deescalating tension in
the Eastern Ukraine, later than month DNR and LNR announced the creation of
Malrossiya or Little Russia.56

IV. Analysis and Interpretation

The post-Soviet Ukraine faced tons of problems, from establishing a government

for self-determination to fixing the countrys economy. However, due to the inheritance
received from the former Soviet Union, the Ukrainian government was able to utilise the
industry it had built during at the Unions height. The first years of independence was
years of experimentation, trying to know what suits best in its current form. With the fall
of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe and the rapid rise of Western Europe, it is a sign

52
"'Bloodiest battle in 5 months': Ukrainian troops repel 3 militant attacks near Svitlodarsk." Uatoday.tv. Accessed
November 21, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20161220221743/http://uatoday.tv/society/bloodiest-battle-
in-5-months-ukrainian-troops-repel-3-militant-attacks-near-svitlodarsk-849788.html.
53
"Ukraine confirms ceasefire observed in Donbass." TASS. Accessed November 21, 2017.
http://tass.com/world/922173.
54
"Ukraine uneasy peace as Trump offers help." PerthNow. October 31, 2017. Accessed November 21, 2017.
https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/world/fighting-in-flashpoint-town-eases-as-us-president-trump-pledges-to-
help-ng-9f5b5d0c24d439f64b557a7853d1c684?r=%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Ffighting-in-flashpoint-town-eases-as-us-
president-trump-pledges-to-help%2Fnews-story%2F9f5b5d0c24d439f64b557a7853d1c684
55
Zinets, Reuters Natalia. "Ukraine accuses Russia of attack on president's website after web sanctions." ABS-CBN
News. May 23, 2017. Accessed November 25, 2017. http://k2.abs-cbnnews.com/overseas/05/16/17/ukraine-
accuses-russia-of-attack-on-presidents-website-after-web-sanctions.
56
"Ukraine leader slams Russia over arms given to rebels." ABS-CBN News. July 25, 2017. Accessed November 23,
2017. http://k2.abs-cbnnews.com/overseas/07/25/17/ukraine-leader-slams-russia-over-arms-given-to-rebels.
that Ukrainians should follow the trends in governance and economy. Just like any post-
Soviet countries, Ukraine is under the yoke of corruption of the elite. These elites quickly
rose into politics and started owning estates and branding them as private properties.

Nevertheless, Ukrainians who aspired their country to prosper looked to the West
and thus, became the root for the Westernization of Ukraine. As much as how inspired
Ukrainians, especially those from the Western regions, to build their country like EU
member states, there are still some who wished that after the fall Ukraine should have
been part of Russia. Ukraine is divided into two, Western Ukrainians who speak
Ukrainians and Eastern Ukrainians who speak Russian.
Pro-Russians who had power in the government aimed to project their country
towards Russia Kiev, the most populous city in Ukraine, wanted the other way around.
This scenario lead to the destabilisation and the government losing control over its
dominion and a takeover of the people. A destabilised government is a very vulnerable
one. Without the legitimacy of power as perceived by the international community, the
national interests of a country are at stake. The Russian foreign policy has been always
assertive, extending its influence in former Soviet Republics politically and economically,
most specially in Belarus the stubborn Ukraine is in danger. After the pro-Russian
government had been overthrown. As the Russian minority in Ukraine is considered as
the countrys national interest, Russia could easily enter East Ukraine under the guise of
protecting the Russian population from a newly established government that has been
established through a coup. Furthermore, the strong support of Eastern Ukrainians to
the Russian government boosts the legitimacy of its unilateral actions.

In the eyes of the international community, what Russia did is condemnable, but
to make Russia pull-out their influence there is a difficulty because the people that had
been invaded wanted to be invaded. The instance is not where the invader feeds the
people better, but the culture of the invader and the invaded is similar. If we were to
remove Russia in the picture, the War in Donbass is not just a civil war within two different
identities, but perhaps a colonial war as the East Ukrainian minority is being forced by
the majority West to impose its beliefs to the aforementioned.

Before answering the second question, let us observe first the military strategy of
the Ukrainian government in collapsing the de facto states. The Ukrainian government
wanted to split Luhansk from Donetsk and vice versa by assaulting Kramatorsk and
Sloviansk and meeting the other forces from Horlivka and Ilovaisk, simultaneously
encircling Donetsk from Mariupol. As we have noticed, DNR/LNR suffered blows of
defeat in the first battles however, won victories in the later engagements, this is due to
the Russian presence and assistance; both retired servicemen and active. 57 A group of

57
"Around 3-4 thousand Russian volunteers fighting for Donetsk People's Republic militia." TASS. Accessed
November 23, 2017. http://tass.com/world/747005.
militias wont be effective against regular troops without an external support as witnessed
in the Vietnam war and Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan. over Soviet Era firearms and
weapon systems that are common in Eastern Europe have been encountered in both
sides, but DNR/LNR forces were able to use advancer weapon systems like the anti-tank
RPG-18 that are able to defeat modern tank armour.58 Soviet Era tanks like the T-64 and
T-72 models were used by separatist forces, it is believed that the armored vehicles were
from Russia as captured by NATO satellites.59

Fig. 1.3 Here an alleged T-64 is shown in Makiivka, next to a lorry with a Russian
flag. Source: BBC (54)

Thus, proving that the Russian presence is the lifeline of the DNR/LNR militia. But it
should be greatly considered the physical features of the warzone, the city Donetsk is a
highly urbanised city buildings are used for fortification; even when shelled with artillery
the rubbles are still an effective cover. A decimated city is an impasse, debris and
destroyed buildings will slow down troop movement, which in return will serve as an
advantage for the defending side. The War in Donbass faced many ceasefire
agreements, but proved too vulnerable as sudden eruptions of battles have taken place
and currently sporadic skirmishes continue to persist. This only means that Europe needs
to take the War in Donbass more seriously.

58
Jenzen-Jones, N.R., and Jonathan Ferguson. "Raising Red Flags: An Examination of Arms & Munitions in the
Ongoing Conflict in Ukraine 2014. ." Armament Research Services , November 2014. Armament Research Services .
59
Marcus, Jonathan. "Russia and Ukraine's mystery tanks." BBC News. June 14, 2014. Accessed November 23,
2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27849437.
 Even with the sanctions held against Russia that caused heavy economic decline,
Putin is still supporting the separatists. The implication in the takeover of Crimea is clear;
with the Peninsula Russia can assure its security in the Black Sea. The Russian
presence in the Donbass region is indeed a sign of Putins disapproval of expanding
Westernisation in Easter Europe however, the slowly deescalating conflict suggests that
Russia is open with DNR and LNR being part again of a unitary Ukraine, but perhaps with
more autonomy to avoid another separatist movements. With the recently elected US
President Donald Trump, the situation may change in Europe with Trumps slogan
America First, implies that the US military presence will decrease in the continent;
therefore, giving Russia leeway in expanding its influence. But so far, US presence in
Afghanistan and Iraq is still the same, perhaps it could be the same in Europe.
Nevertheless, Putins relationship with Trump could mean something else.

V. Summary, Conclusion, and Recommendation

The crisis is Ukraine was a matter time, its politicians were able to create a
government for self-determination, but left the matter of culture unattended hence,
making the Eastern region vulnerable to Russias unilateral foreign policy. The efficacy of
DNR/LNR militia is attributed to the presence of the Russian military in Donbass; which
jeorpadises the Ukrainian government in restoring border control. The Russian President
Putins decision on whether he will continue supporting is an open question, but it is true
that the sanctions held in consequence of his actions hurt Russias economy. If the
Russian economic decline persisted, then he may pull-out the Russian presence in
Donbass.

Ukraine wants to deescalate the conflict as fast as possible. The hasty decision
making made the ceasefire agreements fragile and weak. Indeed, the worst peace is no
better than the best war.
Recommendations

Even after tensions in Donbass have leveled down, it is still a fact that war is
ongoing. This would only mean that development in the area will be impeded, which could
cause a deeper resentment within the people; after all the Euromaidan protest was due
to a dissatisfied population. While the tensions are low, Western Europe, OSCE, and the
UN should take this opportunity to craft a peace agreement which should bring the sides
into an agreeable compromise. Media and journalists should republicize the Donbass
crisis to appeal the civilian population to create international pressure. Social media
should be utilised extensively.
NATO presence in Ukraine only means hostility against the separatists causing a bilateral
agreement less of a possibility; but a NATO withdrawal should also mean a Russian
withdrawal. The peace agreement should be deliberately made, UN and OSCE should
produce a commission to shuttle the factions into a diplomatic talk. Before talks of post-
war agreements be crafted, an assurance of a deliberate ceasefire agreement must be
agreed upon and a creation of a buffer zone that shall be overseen and patrolled by UN
Peacekeepers, this way humanitarian aid and volunteer groups for goodwill will be hastily
delivered amongst the civilian population in the affected areas. As well having UN and
OSCE investigate the MH 17 crash site. Demining the region is a must. A sincere and
approachable third party would make the separatist faction open in talking of a genuine
ceasefire agreement and hopefully post-war agreements.

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