TRANSMISSION od. LINE? |?‘Transmission Line Structures Copyright © 1990 by McGraw-Hill Book Co., Singapore. All rights reserved. No part of this publi- cation may be reproriuced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. 1234567890 KHLSSG 943210 ISBN 0-07-099156-1 The editor of his book was Jenny Goh. This book teas set in Century Schoolbook 9/11 pt Typeset by Superskit! Graphics Pee Led. Cover design by Allison Cheng. Printed by Kim Hup Leé Printing Co Pte Ltd Printed in SingaporeContents FOREWORD (vii) PREFACE (viii) . INTRODUCTION 1 MATERIAL PROPERTIES, CLEARANCES AND TOWER CONFIGURATIONS 18 Material properties 18 Design span lengths 23 Tower configurations 26 ‘Types of towers 29 Insulator swings and clearances 46 . FACTORS OF SAFETY AND LOADS 58 Factors of safety 59 Permissible deflections 59 Loads 59 Loadings and losd combinations 77 SAG-TENSION CALCULATIONS AND CHARTS 92 Calculations using parabolic formula 92 Catenary formula for long spans 94 Caleulations for unequal support levels 98 Co-ordination of sags 97 Behaviour of composite conductors 98 ‘Varney's graphic method of sag-tension calculations 100 Stringing charts 104 |. ANALYSIS OF FORCES AND DEFLECTIONS 108 Idealisation Plane truss analysis 109 ‘Manual method of analysis — graphical and analytical 170 Matrix method of analysis 119 Analysis for three-dimensional behaviour 136 Comparison of various types of analysis 137 Estimation of forces and deflections 138 ™) 6. TOWER DESIGN 143 Bracing Systems 142 Determination of member sizes’, 144 ‘Tension members 145 Compression members 145 Manual method of design 153 Computer-aided design 153 Computer software packages 162 Structural steel connections 164 Tower accessories 179 1. TRSTING OF TRANSMISSION LINE TOWERS 179 Scope of tasts 179 Requirements of tower testing stations 179 Major tower testing stations 150 Model tower testing 183 ‘Tower testing procedures 184 ‘Tower materials in destruction tests 187 Analysis of causes of failure 188 8. CORROSION PROTECTION OF TOWER STEEL 192 Mechanism of corrosion 192 Preventive measures 195 Repair techniques 201 9, TOWER FOUNDATIONS 204 ‘Loads, safety factors and settlements 204 Classification and properties of soils 206 Data for foundation design 207 Classification and types of foundations 208 Analysis and design concepts 212 Anchors 222 Structural design of foundations 224 Examples in foundation design 224 Earthing 231 10. TOWER FABRICATION AND LINE, CONSTRUCTION 236 ‘Tower fabrication 236 Line surveys 248M1. Sag template 256 Line construction 268 RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT 265 Improvements in materials 265 Reliability-based design 266 Limit analysis for forces in tower members 270 Limit load concept 271 Trends in the development of optimal structures 273 Improvements in testing methods 28! Modularity and standardisation 284 Impact on environment 287 ™) Appendix 1 Appendix 2 Appendix 3 Appendix 4 Appendix 5 Index 339 Indian Standard Specifications and Codes of Practice 297 Design of a 132 kV Double-circuit Tangent Tower 300 Optimal Computer-aided Design of a typical 220 kV Double-Circuit Tangent Tower 317 ‘Summary of IEC Standard on Testing of Transmission Line Towers 327 Overhead Line Support Loadings (IEC Approach) 329Foreword To the layman, the supports of overhead power transmission and distribution lines today appear to call for very little fresh studies since, for more than half a century, there has truly been no tech- nological innovation which has brought about any significant change in their external appearance. ‘However, the introduction of data-processing systems — computers and in particular, micro- computers — and better knowledge of the princi- pal physical phenomena governing the electrical insulation of structures and also of meteorological phenomena, have led to the development of struc- tures which are vastly different from those de- signed a few decades ago. ‘The authors must be complimented for bring- ing out this book which, through their thorough treatment of the subject matter, would enable the transmission line project engineers to make a proper evaluation of technical and techno- economic choices leading to the most appropriate designs in different situations. One particular feature of the book is that it serves a dual purpose as some chapters are in- structional in character for advanced students while others relate to practical applications for professional engineers, There is thus a happy blend of theory and practice meeting the neods of students and practising engineers alike. ‘The main focus of the authors has been: ‘+ To bring together all the theoretical and practical knowledge, acquired up to date, in the domain of design and fabrication of overhead line supports and foundations and construction of lines. To give sound examples to enable a good understanding of various aspects by using vil) ferent calculation methods adapted to the tools available, * Torefer to internationally approved meth- ods and give illustrative examples of their application. Lam convinced that this book will attract the attention of students as well as engineers and will, enable the designers of transmission line struc- tures to have a better understanding of various kinds of stresses which are impressed upon a high voltage or an extra high voltage power line. There are numerous publications issued by scientificbodies like the CIGRE (Conference Inter- nationale des Grands Reseaux Electriques) or Electrotechnical Commission which bring to light the latest technical developments in transmission line engineering, but the application of the recom- mendations contained therein is often incompat- ible with the actual situation. This book enables a better appreciation of the evolution of knowledge {in transmission line engineering so that the proj- ect planning engineer could take into account the most advanced techniques and adapt them to suit his needs. could elaborate this Foreword, but my inten- tion is not to give a resume of this comprehensive book, but to give an insight into the wealth of its contents and thus create an interest in the reader. Y. PORCHERON Transmission Design and Construction Department ELECTRICITE DE FRANCE Chairman of CIGRE Study Committee 22: Overhead LinesPreface ‘Tho combination of a power system engineer and 2 structural engineer in writing a book seems somewhat unusual. What prompted us in under- taking this work was that here was an area where the two — the power system engineer or more precisely the transmission line engineer, and the structural engineer — could jointly build up an. understanding to mutual advantage. In many countries, until recently, the electrical engineer concerned with transmission line engineering was Gealing with the structural aspects also based on the knowledge and experience available in his organisation and outside sources and the strue- tural engineer was only occasionally consulted, if at all. In reality, however, given the constraints from the electrical point of view such as clearances from safety considerations, the structural designs fall within the ambit of the structurel engineer to whom a transmission line support is a compara- tively simple structure. In our collaborative endeavour, we have realised that the many ad- vanced approaches available in structural engi- neering have not made significant impact in the design of transmission line structures; likewise, certain advances made in transmission line engi- neering are not within the common knowledge of structural engineers. Secondly, while power constitutes a very important infrastructure, and transmission and distribution overhead lines, particularly supports, constitute a sizeable portion of the outlay there (via) does not seem to be any book available on trans- mission line towers and foundations. This lacuna has also prompted us to attempt this work. ‘Through our joint working we have tried to combine the theoretical and practieal aspects, drawn from our respective experionce in the power supply industry and the academic institutions, and wo trust that this publication will serve the needs of practising engineers and students alike. We wish to record our sincere thanks to Dr. P. Purushothaman, Professor, Structural Engineering, Anna University, for reviewing this work and giving us the benefit of his valuable comments and suggestions. Our grateful thanks are due to Mr. Y. Porch- eron, Head, Engineering Research, Transmission Design and Construction Department, Blectricité de France, who is also the present chairman of the GIGRE (Conference Internationale des Grands Réseaux Electriques & Haute Tension ~ Interna- tional Conference on Large High-Voltage Electric Systems) Committee No. 22 : Overhead Power Lines, for going through the manuscript patiently and giving us the benefit of his constructive sug- gestions and comments, and also writing a Foreword to the book. Finally, we sincerely acknowledge the keen interest evinced by Dr. V.C. Kulandaiswamy, Vice-Chancellor of the Anna University, in this project and in including the book under the Text- book Promotion Scheme of the university. S.S. MURTHY AR, SANTHAKUMAR1 Introduction N EVERY country, developed and develop- ing, the electric power consumption has con tinued to rise, the rate of growth being greater in the developing countries on account of the comparatively low base. This in turn has led to the increase in the number of power stations and their capacities and consequent increase in power transmission lines from the generating stations to the load centres, Intereonnections between sys- tems are also increasing to enhance reliability and economy. ‘The transmission voltage, while dependent on the quantum of power transmitted, should fit in with the long-term eystern require- ment as well as provide flexibility in system operation. It should also conform to the national and international standard voltage levels. In the planning and design of a transmission line, a number of requirements have to be met. From the electrical point of view, the most impor- tant roquirement is insulation and safe clear- ances to earthed parts. These, together with the cross-section of conductors, the spacing between conductors, and the relative location of ground wires with respect to the conductors, influence the design of towers and foundations. The con- ductors, ground wires, insulation, towers and foundations constitute the major components of a transmission line. ‘This book deals with the twin aspects: of towers and foundations and attempts to bring out the various theoretical and praetical considera. tions involved in evolving economical and reliable designs, The book comprises eleven chapters and five appendices. Chapter 1 gives an overview of the growth of power generation and transmission networks in India and highlights the importance of evolving a long-term generation-transmission perspective taking into account the ecological and environ- mental constraints. It also emphasizes the rote of power transmission In general and transmission Line structures in. particular. Chapters 2 and 3 cover the basic criteria governing the design of transmission line strue- tures: Chapter 2 dealing with properties of steel used in these structures, tower configurations and types, and insulator swings under various operat- ing conditions and the corresponding clearances to tower; and Chapter 8 dealing with estimation of loads on towers and conduetors, broken-wire conditions, load combinations prescribed by vari- ous codes of practice, and factors of safety assumed in the designs Chapter 4 deals with sag-tension calcula tions using the catenary and the parabolic meth- ‘ods, coordination of sags of conductor and ground wire from the lightning protection point of view, and preparation of eag-tension charts for applica» tion in the field Chapter 5 gives the various methods of analysis of forces and their comparison, While graphical and conventional analytical methods have been adequately described, the matrix method of analysis has been covered in sufficient datail to enable the designars to switch over to computer analysis and design. The use of mini- computers for analysis of tower idealised as a plane trass and of main frame computer for the solution of towor idealised as a three-dimensional space truss has also been covered in this chapter. Chapter 6 deals with the actual design aspects relating to tower members, connections and accessories. The tower designs which are cur- rently based on codes of practice are generally conservative, but computer-aided designs can lead to weight optimization and henee significant Transmission Line Structures 1economy. Modern principles of optimization con sidering member sizes and geometry as variables have been covered in some detail. In this context one computer-optimization programme has been elaborated. ‘The transmission tower is a highly indeter. minate structure and it is generally analysed and designed on the basis of simplifying assumptions gnd approximations. The tower is subjected to variety of forces and environmental exposure. It has a large number of joints and fabriea- tion errors are not uncommon. It has been cus+ tomary for the power utilities to specify proto- type tests on a certain number of towers in any project. Testing of transmission towers is described in Chapter 7 and after a brief review of a few major tower testing facilities in the world, tower testing stations in India are described and illustrated. ‘Tho importance of interpreting the prototype and model test results are dealt with and a unified approach in regard to tower tosting procedure is emphasized. A review of test failures and their probable causes is also presented, which provides an insight to the designers on the behaviour of towers under a variety of loads and combinations thereof. Chapter 8 deals with corrosion protection, and tho various processes, tests and associated Indian standards are described to aid the fabrica- tion and maintenance engineers, Chapter 9 on tower foundations covers soil types and parameters, various types of founda- tions and analysis and design of foundations in- cluding improved design methods. Examples are given illustrating the application of the improved design methods. The chapter also includes a de- scription of a modern earthing practice. Chapter 10 deals with tower fabrication and line construction practices and stresses the need for modernising the practices in the context of the heavy transmission programme coming up in the county. ‘Transmission line structures require a multi- disciplinary approach in their evolution and there is considerable scope for team research. Chapter 11 deals with the scope for research and development in the use of new materials, optimi- zation. techniques, concopts of limit load to sc- count for uncertainties of load and the choice of rational safety factors with respect to strengths of materials, new types of foundations, modular coordination and standardisation, etc, all with a View to realising all possible economies consis- 2 Transmission Line Structures tent with reliability taking into account the land use and environmental aspects ascociated with power lines, The five appendices to the text cover the following + A list of Indian Standard Specifications and Codes of Praetice + A detailed design ofa typical 192 kV double cireuit tangent tower along with founda- tion using manual methods of analysis and, design + A typicel optimal computer-aided design of a 220 kV double-circuit tangent tower * Tower loading tests prescribed by the TEC Standard * Recommendations of the [EC for the cal- culation of various tower loadings. Power perspectives and role of transmission General Electric power is today playing an increasingly important role in the life of the community and development of various sectors of economy. De- veloping countries like India are therefore giving a high priority to power development program- mes. In fact, the economy is becoming increas- ingly dependent on electricity as a basic input, ‘Soon after Independence (1947), the economic importance of electricity was recognised and leg islation was enacted for creation of the requisite organisational base — Central Electricity Author- ity at the national level and Electricity Boards at the State level — for implementing a planned dovelopment programme framed under the sue- cessive plans beginning with the first Five-Year Plan which was launched in 1950-51 While in absolute terms the level of electrical energy consumption in India is far below the lev- els obtaining in the developed countries, the per capita consumption has increased from 14.8 kWh in 1950 to 191 kWh in 1986-87 (cf: USA ~ 18070, West Germany ~ 9000, USSR — 7500, Japan - 7425 in 1985). The installed generating capacity and the transmission and distribution networks to carry power from the generating stations to the load centres and from thereon to the ultimate consumers have increased manifold. As in other countries, the growth of trans- mission networks in India is dopondent on the historic growth of electrical energy consumption and its forecast for the next few decades. As loads grow and individual systems and interconnectionsbetween systems develop, the transmission eapa- bility must correspond to the system capability. ‘Transmission facilities provide the maans of connecting the generating capacities to the load centres. Interconnections of adequate capacities between individual systems enable interconnected ‘operation of these systems whieh provide the key to various benefits such as use of large, low-cost, generating units, capacity savings due to load diversity, minimization of reserves, emergency assistance to individual systems, and efficient utilisation of tho generation and transmission facilities available in the area as a whole. Ac a background to the development of power transmission networks in India and the impor- tance of transmission line structures in relation thereto, it is proposed to review briefly the energy seene and the growth of the power supply indus- try and give a broad perspective into the future. Growth of generation and transmission in India The progress of power development in India since Independence has been significant. The total installed capacity which was only 2,800MW in 1950 rose to 47,260MW at the end of 1984-85 and is expected to go up to about 72,000MW by the end of 1989-90. The successive Plans with large outlays on power development have seen the addition of lange generating capacity and the development of a basic transmission and distribution system. The unit sizes of thermal plant have gone up from 9OMW in 1960 to SOOMW in 1985. Similarly, the transmission voltage has increased from 110 kV around 1945 to 400 kV in 1978, Table 1.1 Growth of installed generating capacity in India Year Utilities Non-utilities Total (nw) i) MA lend) 1947 1,362 = 1,362 fend) 1950 1,713 588. 2.301 lena) 1955 2695723 3.418 EndilPlan 1960-61 4653 1,00) 5,654 End Ill Plan 1965-66 9.027 1,146 10,173 End Annual 1966-69 12,957 1,339 14,296 Plans End IV Plan 1973-74 16,663 1,793 18,456 EndV Flan 1978-79 26,680 2.618 29.298 End VI Plan 1984-85 42,585 4,678 47,263 End Vil Plan 1989-90 64,736 7,281 72,017 (Antkipated) ‘The growth of the installed generating eapa- city (Table 1.1.) and the corresponding growth of the aggregate system peak demand during the past three decades are shown in Figure 1.1 The growth of the transmission networks at different voltages over the period from 1950 to 1984-85 together with the anticipated increase up to 1989-80 (end of the Seventh Plan period) is given in Table 1.2 and shown in Figure 1.2 Table 1.2 Growth of transmission network in Indi Length of transmission tines constructed fercutimn) Pano 400K 220K H10/32KY BOY Tow! 2.708 7.431 10,139 7376 7.798 15,174 12.802 14,702 28,603 End 1950 7 End 1955 = = Endofl = = 1,099 Flea (1960-61) End ofl = Plan (1965-66) Endof An - nual Plans (1968-69) Engoty = Plan, (1973-73) End of v 78 Plan (1978-79), End ori Plan (1984-85), End of vil Pian (1989-90) [Anceipatedy ‘lode 910 km of 2500 WV VEC 3,772, 24,718 17,544 46,034 10.225 34,056 21,239 65,520 13,932, 45,041 24,252 $3,225 719% 54,186 26,594 108,694 6022 45,297 73,137 31,037 155,493 21787" 64,323 85,187 34,137 205,434 Inis significant that the higher voltage lines at 220KV and 400 kV with higher transmission capa- bilities have experienced a much higher rate of growth. This trend is expected to continue for some years in view of the large pithead thermal stations and nuclear stations coming up in the various regions of the country to serve the regional needs rather than the individual area needs. ‘The grid development in the country has fol- lowed the logical sequence of unification of power aystems within a State, interconnection of neigh- bouring State systems, and linking of systems between the regions. Transmission Line Structures 3Total (Utilities + Nonutilities) Total ( Utilities) - 2[400 kv AND 3[¢500 kV HVDC 90 YEARS Figure 1.2 Growth of transmission network in India 4 Transmission Line StructuresInvestment on power ‘The overall perspectives for economic develop- ment envisaged in the national Five-Year Plans have recognised the vital infrastructural role that power plays. The power supply industry is highly capital intensive and has necessitated substantial increase in the outlays for the power sector in the successive Plans. The Planwise investment in power sector and its share in the overall Plan outlay are shown in Table 1.3. Theoutlay on power since 1978 has been larger than the outlay on any other sector, ‘Shortfalls in capacity creation and transmis- sion projects have been experienced in practically every Plan period. Table 1.4 shows the shortfallsin generation and Table 1.5 shows the shortfalls in 220 kV and 400 kV transmission projects in the Sixth Plan (1980-85). ‘These shortfalls have resulted in power short- ages and are essentially due to time overruns. Tho time overruns combined with inflation have con- tributed to cost overruns also. The cost overruns have varied very widely ranging from about 70 percent to over 300 percent in the ease of hydro- electric projects, 13 percent to over 100 percent in the ease of thermal projects, and 65 percent to 115 percent in the case of nuclear projects. Table 1.3 Planwise investment in power sector and its share in the plan outlay ‘Outlay in the power sector (Public utilities onty) Asa share in an Period (Rs. crores} the total Plan outiey (96) 1 195156 260 133 fh 1956-61 460 98 ol 1961-66 1.252 Me Annual Plans 196669 1.223 1a. v 1969-74 2.932 186 Vv 1974-78 5244 178 Draft vi 197883 15.112 213 M 198085 19,265 19.7 vi 1995-90 34.273 19.0 Itis seen from Table 1.5 that the shortfalls in transmission at 220 kV and 400 kV levels during the Sixth Pian period were about 50 percent and 70 Percent respectively, which are indeed high, Due to non-completion of some transmission lines and substations, the beneficiary States have not been Table 1.4 Shortfalls in capacity creation {inclusive of non-utilities) Pan Panned Actual Shortfall wy MW] Secona 3.500 2.250 357 Tes 7040 $715 330 Fourth 9,260 4527 Sit Fith (Up to1977-78) 12.500 7593 39.3 Sixth 19,666 14.266 275 able to get their shares from the units already commissioned in some of the Central power stations. In the past and up till now, the power trans. mission (and distribution) programme has lagged very much behind the generation programme with the result that evacuation of power from power plants has become difficult and the reliability of supply has been low. The transmission and distri- bution losses have also increased over the years standing at 21.50 percent in 1986-87 (Table 1.6).' ‘The loss figures in countries like France, Italy, West Germany, the U.K., the US.S.R., theU S.A. and Japan vary from about 5.25 to 9.64 percent, ‘Thus the system losses in India are disproportion- ately high, calling for serious efforts to bring them down to reasonable levels. This situation has arisen essentially for two reasons, The investments on transmission and distribution (T and D) have been incommensurate with those on generation and adequate attention has not been given to long-term planning. ‘A broad study indicates that, as between generation, and transmission and distribution including rural electrification, the investment should be in the ratio of 1:1. Over the years, however, the actual investment on T and D has fallen far short of this. Notwithstanding the all- round realisation that the outlays should be in- creased substantially, the allocations in the Sixth and Seventh Plans have remained low (Table 1.7), Table 1.5 Transmission lines in Sixth Plan (1980-85) Programmed and completed (circuit - km) Voltage Programmed Constructed Shortfall 220 kV 29.400 14,800 49.65% 400 kV. 12,900 4,000, 69.00% Transmission Line Structures 5It would no doubt be necessary for the outlays onTand D toexceed the investment on generation for some years in future, if the backlog is to be covered and the reliability and quality of supply is to reach acceptable levels Table 1.6 Transmission and distribution losses Year T & D losses as percentage Dec. 1950 15.83 1960-61 15.80 1970-71 1750 1980-81 20.56 1986-37 21.50 Table 1.7 Outlays on power in the Sixth and Seventh Plan periods (Rs. n cores} Pan Generaton T&O RE Sit Pan 11,814 5.421 1,577 453 19.265 $9.23 (194085) Seventh 23,649 9,243 2,108 — 35,000 48.00 Pan 1198590) ‘The need for according ahigh priority totrans- mission projects and providing the necessary flow of funds well in advance in the interest of evacu- ation of power from the generating stations (which are being created in various regions for the benefit of the constituent States in each region) and satis- factory functioning of grid systems is obvious. Evolution of power scenarios and transmission perspectives ‘The generation capacity planning must be fully integrated with the transmission planning so that ‘both could be optimised as a system. Such an op- ‘timised programmecan be developed only ifa long- term perspective is evolved so that different types of projects with varying gestation periods can be incorporated into the plan in a manner which best meets the demand forecasts. Certain long-term assumptions regarding funding are of course essential, however tentative they ma ‘The planning process must explicitly recog- nize uncertainty and deal with it by scenario and sensitivity analysis so that the power systems are 6 Transmission Line Structures planned with sufficient flexibility to effectively cope with unforeseen events. Power production mix ‘The power production mix in any system largely pends on the energy sources available, the rela tive costs of generation, and the time element within which the generation programmes can be realised, and varies from country to country and from time to time within the same country, ‘Taking the case of France, for example, the mix has changed drastically from 1977 to 1987 as will be seen from the figures of production (TWH) given in Table 1.8. The nuclear component has risen sharply from 8.5 percent of the total energy produced to 70 percent in 10 years. Table 1.8 Power production mix in France my 1977 1987 1990 Anticipated 37.0 (10%) 796 Thermal 109.6 (54.0%) Nuclear 17.0 (8.5%) 251.3 (70%) 76% Hydeo 76.0 (37.5%) 716 (20%) 17% Tota) 2026 3599) In India too, the mix has changed over the last 30-86 years and the proportion of hydro energy is, decreasing while that of thermal energy isincreas- ing as shown in Table 19. Further, within the regions the mix is vastly different (Table 1.10). In view of the varying degrees of the hydel potential in the various regions, efforts should be made to make an optimal use of the available sources of power in each region. There are severe imbalances at the State level in each region and therefore the objective should be to meet the demands through integrated operationof the state systems in the regions so that the hydel component is made use of in the best possible manner in view of its several advantages over thermal and nuclear power. ‘There are always certain uncertainties to reckon with in any long-term exercise. The un- certainties relate essentially to demand growth, location of generation sites and impact of new technologies. The time span may therefore go up to certain multiple of the base year figure; that is, the target year may correspond to two to three times the base year consumption of energy, so that in the continuous exercise of planning, the short-term, the medium-term and the long-term strate- gies are satisfactorily dovetailed into one another. ‘Such an approach has been adopted in France where, in long-term planning exercises, the target condition was assumed as 600TWH of consump- tion, the initial power system being 285TWH (1981). The 600TWH condition may possibly cor- respond to the year 2000. The peak demands cor responding to 285TWH year and GOUTWH year are 46,6GW (actual) and 110-120 GW respectively. ‘The studies showed that up to 1990, there were technical and political constraints in regard to the choice of generation sites. This could be anticipated in view of the time horizon being short Table 1.9 Generation mix in Ins over relative to 1981. But beyond 1990, there was more freedom in the choice from a list of possible sites, the main criterion being the minimisation of the transmission and the interconnection system The studies also showed that the capacity of the transmission and interconnected power sys- tom increased more rapidly between 1981 (objec- tive: 285TWH) and the year 500TWH than between 1081 and the year 600TWH. This was mainly due to the constraints in regard to genera- tion sites imposed during the first years of the study period. A long-term perspective onsimilarlines should be attempted so that a certain number of likely the period from December 1950 to 1986-87 [Utilities only) (own) December 196061 197071 198081 198687" 1950 Hydro 2,520 7,837 25,248 46,592 53,851 (49.3%) (46.3%) (45.2%) (42.0%) (28.7%) Thermal (Steam, Gas 2,587 9,100 28,162 61,301 128.926 and Diesel) (50.7%) (53.79%) (50.5%) (55.3%) (68.6%) Nuclear = =» 2418. 3,001 5,022 (4.3%), (2.756), (2.79) Total 5,107 16,937 $5,828 110,844 187,799 * Prewional Table 1.10 Generation mix in various regions in India in 1986-87" utilities in Gu Region Hycro Thermal Nuclear Total Northern 21.989 29,818 1,324 53,131 (41.4%) (56.196) (2,5) Western 6191 54.632 2,000 ° 62,823 (9.8%) (87.0%) (3.2%) Southern 21,070 24,108 1,698 46,876 (45.0%) (51.4%) (3.6%) Eastern 3,666 19,309 - 22,975 (16.0%) (64.0%) North-Eastern 935 1,059 = 1,994 (46.9%) (53.196) + Provseral Transmission Une Structures 7scenarios could be visualised and the structure and consistency of the power system as a whole determined for the ultimate year. [t would then be possible to place certain intermediate decisions concerning the reinforcements of the system in the long-term perspective. Anappreciation of the magnitude of the power system likely to emerge in the long-term perspec- tive would be possible if'a broad assessment of the power requirements and resources, together with the ecological and environmental constraintscould be made. These aspects are dealt with in the following sub-sections, Power requirements and resources The per capita consumption of commercial energy (coal, oil and electricity) in India in 1980-81 was of _the order of 200 kgce (kilograms of coal equivalent) per annum, which is about one-tenth of the world average, about one-fiftisth of the USA and one- twentieth of Japan. The consumption of commer- cial energy and non-commercial fuels (firewood, animal dung, and agro-waste) over the period 1953-54 to 1985-86 is shown in Table 1.11 from which it will be seen that the consumption of com- mercial energy has grown much faster than non- commercial energy, and that, within the commer cial energy, the consumption of electricity has grown much faster than coal or oil. Eeonomy is thus becoming increasingly dependent on electrie- ity as a basie input. Long-term forecasts of electrical energy Long-term forecasting (say, 20-30 years ahead) of electrical energy consumption is an indispensable preliminary operation in any generation-trans- mission planning study. There are several meth- ods of forecasting. ranging from very simple meth- ods based on extrapolation to sophisticated econ- ometric models involving a number of variables. Each forecasting method has certain strengths and weaknesses as well as resource requirements. including data, time, cost and technical capabili- ties. There is no single best method, the methods are generally complementary to one another and therefore the various methods should be integrated to develop the electricity demand fore- casting. The Annual Power Surveys" carried out by the Power Survey Committee, constituted by the Government of India, from time to time with the Secretariat of the Committee provided by the Central Electricity Authority haveattempted long- term forecasts using certain very simple methods. ‘These forecasts have generally been on the opti mistic side. Table 1.12 hows how the forecasts have varied from the actuals. It will be observed that the deviation from the forecast has ranged from 3,000 to 10,000MW and from 15,000 to 55,000MKWh. The 12th Annual Survey Report (March 1985)* has introduced an element of econometric model. However, it is necessary to develop more sophisti- cated techniques for long-term forecasting which would take into consideration the total energy demand and growth rates of the various sectors of economy. They should also take into aecount the underlying economic forces and constraints which are inevitable in a developing economy; only then will the planning of generation and transmission to mect the needs be realistic. The rates of growth of energy consumption and economy are closely interrelated. The social progress is dependent on the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) and the latter is largely Table 1.11 Consumption of energy in India (1953-54 to 1985-86) in millon tonnes of coal replacement) Conmercat Ereray Non-commercal Pescent sheve of ye EE energy (2ung, TON commercial CoN ON Eleewieny Tort — frewsod and energy agronnoite) i9s3s4 28773878 (OO 1591860 323 190061 404 439 169 101214552467 410 196546 518 646 309 «470157 KOSH 17071 $14 972 as 18721494 534 197596 710 78 Get 2527198 HATS 199081 1069 1795 897 3741 2078 SEIT 198586 1540 216 179-5825 2182, T8NT 8 Transmission Line StructuresTable 1.12 Comparison of forecasts with actuals (utilities only) conditioned by the rate of growth of energy consumption. The relationship between the growth of econ. omy and the growth of energy consumption has been the subject-matter of detailed studies for a long time. However, since only the commercial forms of energy (coal, petroleum products, natural gas and electricity) are generally accounted for, there is distortion in the relationship between energy and GDP. Forexample, in India, during the period 1959-54 to 1970-71. the non-commercial energy accounted for more than 65 percent of the total energy in the initial years and around 50 percent in later years, although there is significant downward trend in subsequent years (Table 1.11). ‘This situation obtains in the majority of the coun- tries of the world. Table 1.11 also shows that, while the supply of commercial energy has been growing much faster than that of non-commercial energy, the growth of electricity has been faster than that of coal or oil. During the 27-year period from 1960-81 to 1987-88, the consumption of electrical energy has shown an overall growth rate of 9 percent per annum whereas the economy has grown at a rate of 3.5 percent only. Table 1.13 shows the annual percentage rates of growth of electricity consump- tion and economy. and the electricity-GDP ratio."* ‘The ratio has varied from 2.67 in 1951-56 to 1.73 in 1980-85 (ignoring the high figure of 4.88 in 1961- 66), While there is adiscernibledownward trend in. the ratios in the last 10-15 years, it would be useful to compare these figures with those in two other developing countries, Brazil and Mexico, where the ratio was 1,21 and 1.53 respectively. The emphasis should therefore be on achieving reduc- tion in energy consumption relative to economic growth. It would be useful to carry out the exercises of perspective power planning relative to the anticipated growth rates of economy with refer- ence to the electricity-GDP ratios observed in the past by judicious variation of the ratio around the minimum, The generation and transmission program- mes for the Seventh Plan period ending 1989-90 have been set and are under implementation. Efforts should now be made to build the program- mes thereafter into a long-term perspective. An attempt is made here to make a broad assessment of the electrical energy consumption for the next 20 years and the corresponding installed gene- rating capacity required so that the importance of taking a long-term view on transmission network development including possibly the introduction of a higher voltage than 400 kV, if necessary, multicireuiting, HVDC transmission, ete. may be readily appreciated Table 1.13 Growth of electricity consumption and GDP Arcus compound Annual compound Bact Pence Goumme ot | Growin rate et GOP: — ‘economy tersumpton Fest Plan (1951-5696 36 267 Second Plan 1956-61) 10.6 40 265 Third Plan (1961-66) 122 25 488 Three Annual Pars (1966-69) 11.0 ar 208 Fourth Pen, (1969-74563 35 1.80 Fan Pen (1974-79) 89 52 un Actual Plan (1979-80) 13 “47 ie Saath Per (1980-85, a8 5 173 ‘everth Pian 03 yoars (1985-83; a8 42 210 } 34 1970-11 prices up to 1980-81 and at 1960-61 prices thereafter 2 The growth ratehas been worked out for the last four years of the Plan because the base year estimates for 1980-81 of thi ‘comparable with the 1979-80 estimates of the ea Ww series are not 1970-71 series. Transmission Line Structures 91400 1200 1000 800 600 ENERGY CONSUMPTION TWH 400 200 50 6070 Select Exponential 90 7000 2010 YEARS Figure 1.3 Forecast of energy consumption using different regression models and tapered growth model ‘Thewoll-known techniques ofstatistical analy- sis assuming the power and exponential regres- sion models could be applied to the forecasting of energy consumption. The equations used for these models are: Power model: ye AeB ce ap Exponential model: Bx (gy nergy consumption in GWH, ime in years, and A and B are constants which will depend on the statistical study of available data from, say, 1970-71 to 1987-88, Figure 1.3 shows the forecast of electrical energy consumption corresponding to the above two models up to the year 2009-10. Historically, the rate of growth of electricity ‘consumption which averaged 12.78 pereent per annum compounded during the decade 1950 to 1960-61 and 12.19 porcont during the decade 1960- 10 Transmission Line Structures 61 to 1970-71 came down drastically to 6.54 per- cent during the next decade 1970-71 to 1980-81 essentially due to widespread power shortages on account of delays in implementation of generation ‘and transmission projects. During the next five years from 1980-81 to 1985-36, the rate of growth improved to 8.37 percent. The growth rate during the Seventh Plan period (1984-85 to 1989-80) is likely to be around 9 percent. A reasonable pro- jection for the next two decades for broad plan- ning purposes could be on the basis of a growth rate of 9 percent gradually tapered down, as the base increases, to 7.5 percent, over a period of 15 years ending 2010 and remaining at that level for ‘some years thereafter, before it starts to decline. ‘The growth rate of 7.5 percent corresponds to the doubling ofenergy consumption in 10 years, which generally obtains in many systems after experi- encing higher growth rates in the early years of development. Figure 1.3 shows the projection based on the tapered growth alongside the power and exponential models. ‘Table 1.14 gives the forecast of energy con- sumption on this basis and the corresponding installed generating capacity using appropriate