Eieci:ior~Ccmmlssicn of In,dia

.NAME OF THE NEWSPAPER THE INDIAN EXPRESS DATE: 1:, .9 Ah ZG',~_

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~Atal Modi vs Rajiv Rahul

HE conclusion in last

T Saturday's National
Interest ('Still Man-
dai, Still Mandir', IE,
March 2, http://goo.gl/ONVud)
that India now waits for some-
Can each re-invent,
body to pull his forces out of the
trenches and break the two-
re-Iaunch himself? Only
decade stalemate in politics with
a big new idea, has brought forth
then will 2014 be the
some obvious questions: Who is
that likely to be? What can be
big ideas campaign
some such ideas? And what if
the same stalemate continues?
The fir t and the third are easier SHEKHAR GUPTA
to answer. Only two leaders
have the strength, appeal and
political wherewithal to break
this stalemate: Rahul Gandhi men do not care. They would tion, post-elections. That be-
and Narendra Modi. And prefer minimalistic realism to came possible in the nineties be-
of course, it will be a most fun anything adventurous, risky, go- cause Atal Bihari Vajpayee's in-
election if they decided to do so for-broke. But will Rahul clusive and non-threatening
and locked horns in a big ideas Gandhi set the bar that low? leadership won over, at least in
campaign. There is also a lesson here for crucial electoral regions, allies
The third question, well, you those in the BJp, particularly the that would have normally stayed
ask any Congress leader and he semi-intellectual types who work away from a leadership of the
will answer it with a smugness
that comes from two terms in Listen to the busybody apparatchiks and mandarins .; :

power and the old TINA (There
Is No Alternative) arrogance. If
the stalemate continues, the
election will surely be fought on
old issues, or mainly identity,
which suits the Congress. It is a
truism confirmed by the general
pattern of our state and national
elections since 1989, and was
even reaffirmed in Obama's re-
election last year, that in a di-
verse society, in an election de-
fined by identity, the sum of all
insecure and united minorities
ministership in 2014. The Congressmen do not care. But
is often greater than the power of
a usually divided majority. But ~-----~--.------------'
while such a stale campaign may
again bring some kind of a UPA
who dominate the Congress'stop echelons: We can
afford to lose 50, 60 or even 70 seats from 2009 and
still retain power. There is merit in their cynical
arithmetic. What is 200 for the BJPis 140 for them,
because they are likely to be acceptable to many more
allies. But there is one pre-requisite: the election must
be trapped in tired old issues. New ideas must be kept
out. Retaining power, howsoever diminished, is better
than risking losing it. It also follows that sucha weak
coalition will preclude a Rahul Gandhi prime
-
will Rahul Gandhi set the bar that low?
~
~~.
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to power, it is more likely to re-

.
semble 2004.
tc~ .
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Electiofl Cemmlssion of India
.NAME Of THE NEWSPAPER
HE Congress has been in
T power politics much
longer than any of its ri-
vals, So it is more inclined to be
satisfied with minimalistic pos-
sibilities as long as it stays in
power. That is what you would
often hear from the busybody
apparatchiks and mandarins
who dominate its top echelons
(only four of the current 19-
member CWC are Lok Sabha
members, including Sonia and
Rahul; of the rest, 9 are Rajya
Sabha members,S former MPs,
one ex-MLA): We can afford to
lose 50, 60, or even 70 seats from
2009 and still retain power.
There is merit in their cynical
arithmetic. What is 200 for the
BJP is 140 for them, because
they are likelyto be acceptable to
many more allies. But there is
one pre-requisite here: the elec-
tion must be trapped in tired old
issues, identity and social justice.
New ideas must be kept out. Re-
taining power, howsoever dimin-
ished, isbetter than risking losing
it. It also follows that such a weak
coalition will totally preclude a
Rahul Gandhi prime minister-
ship in 2014. But the Congress-
I .
rt
_1
THE INDIAN EXPRESS
its fringes. They have already de- Hindu right. L.K. Advani and
clared a Modi victory. Just let Vajpayee then complemented
Modi be our prime ministerial each other: one divided to win,
candidate, they say, it will po- the other subsequently charmed
larise the electorate and we will to unite. The party no longer has
win. There may be some merit such talent.
in that, given that a Hindu up-
surge post-1992 had given the HE onus, therefore, is on
party Uttar Pradesh and finally
power in Delhi. But 2014 is dif-
ferent. In any case, building a
T Modi to do something
creative to break the
stalemate or status quo that suits
The BJPvoters love Modi. But he knows that won't be
enough. Elections are al not fought on the internet
and Twitter. He will have to widen his message,
consign dated grievances like appeas ment of
Muslims, fear of Pakistan, Christian conversions,
mandir, even terrorism, to cold storage. To put it
simply, to win, he has to change the game and for that,
he needs an entirely new approach from the one that
made him the unchallenged leader of Gujarat. In 2004,
aam aadmi of the Congress did not defeat the NDA's
India Shining. It was a case of Modi defeating
Vajpayee. Now, to get even with the Congress, his
challenge is to become the new Vajpayee.
temple can never have the same the Congress. His aggressive
oomph as breaking a mosque. So style, lampooning of rivals,
this willbe a risky strategy. It will, choice of words, inflexion, de-
most likely, vindicate the Con- livery and sense of timing make
gress party's minimalists. Fur- him one of our most impressive
ther, the rhetoric needed to fuel orators in Hindi. But his mes-
such polarisation will make it im- sage, so far, has only enthused
possible to build a ruling coali- the faithful. The BJP voters love
Rahu1 Gandhi. He can let
things drift. He can presume he
has time, and settle for a de-
risked, "re-elect a truncated
UPX' approach. He knows n~w
that his original idea of red.1s-
covering voters where Indira
Gandhi found them has not
worked: those voters have ei-
th~r moved on, or discovered
their own leaders. He has the
gift of youth and modernity and
a party more faithful to the
leader than any in the world,
and that includes the Chinese
communists. So he, too, can
build a new agenda around re-
formist economics. There
aren't many other issues left in
the run-up t02014. Both sides os
have the same view on terr.or, ,(
national security and foreign
policy. A secular versus com-
him. But he knows that won't be
enough. Elections are also n?t
fought on the internet a~d 1W1~-
ter. He will have to w1den.h1s
message, consign dated gnev-
ances like appeasement of.M~s-
lims fear of Pakistan, Christian
con~ersions, mandir, even ter-
rorism, to cold storage. .
Does he, then, have the intel-
lectual depth and political sag~c-
ity to drop everything about him
that his fans love but the more
numerous others fear? Can he
'-build a fresh new agenda around
. growth, development, entrepre-
neurship, good governance,
equal opportunity and wealth
creation? Some of his recent
public speeches have sugges~ed
that, usual Congress-bashmg
apart he is trying to smoothen
his ruder edges. To put it simply,
to win, he has to change the
game, and for that, he needs an
entirely new approach from the
one that made him the unchal-
lenged leader of ~ujarat. I have
often said that in 2004, aam
aadmi of the Congress did not
defeat the NDXs India Shining.It
was a case of Modi defeating Va-
jpayee. Now, to get even ~ith the
Congress, his challenge 1Sto be-
come the new Vajpayee. It may
sound unrealistic, but it seems
now that he will givethis a shot.
Similar choices confront
munal approach takes him back
to the doldrums of 2004. But it
may be different if he talks
modern economics and invokes
the globalised confidence of
Rajiv Gandhi and Manmohan
Singh, rather th:m the great ~ut
now outdated ideas of Indira
and Nehru.
A stirring new election will
then have a Modi reinventing
himself as Vajpayee, a Rahul re-
launching himself in the image
of Rajiv and Manmohan Singh,
both talking economic reform,
growth, governance, equality
and aspiration. Leave it, then,
. to the voter to decide who she
finds more convincing.