FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES AND PUBLIC POLICY

TSUNAMI EVACUATION: USING GIS TO INTEGRATE BEHAVIORAL AND

VULNERABILITY DATA WITH TRANSPORTATION MODELING

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KHAMEIS ALABDOULI
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A Dissertation submitted to the

Department of Geography
in partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the degree of
Doctor of Philosophy

Degree Awarded:
Spring Semester, 2015
 UMI Number: 3705769

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UMI 3705769
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Khameis Alabdouli defended this dissertation on March 3, 2015.
The members of the supervisory committee were:

Mark Horner
Professor Directing Dissertation

Timothy Chapin
University Representative

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Earl J Baker
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Committee Member

Tingting Zhao
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Committee Member

Eren Ozguven
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Committee Member

The Graduate School has verified and approved the above-named committee members, and
certifies that the dissertation has been approved in accordance with university requirements.

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To my wife, my parents, and my lovely children (Mohamed and Maryam)

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 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

It is hard to imagine that eight years have passed since I first came to the United States to begin
my graduate studies in Geography. It has been an interesting academic journey filled with
opportunity to gain in knowledge and experience. As I began to approach the last stage of my
graduate studies, I found that I was lucky to be surrounded with such an outstanding group of
faculty members and colleagues here in the Geography Department of Florida State University.
This dissertation could only have been completed with the guidance and the support from those
who both in academia and in my personal life have helped me, in innumerable ways,
throughout my life and academic journey.

I would like to give my thanks and gratitude to those who contributed to each aspect of my

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academic achievement. I owe my deepest gratitude to my advisors, Dr. Mark Horner and Dr. Jay
Baker, who have guided and assisted me throughout my study and drew the successful path for
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the accomplishment of my research and this dissertation. This research would have been next to
impossible without their support and guidance. It is my pleasure to thank my outside dissertation
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committee member, Dr. Eren Ozguven,for his advice and suggestions for improving my work;
his contribution to the quality I have tried to achieve is immense. I would like to thank Dr.
Tingting Zhao for her participation on my dissertation committee and her contributions in
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strengthening my document. Also, I would like to express my appreciation to Dr. Timothy

Chapin for serving as a second outside committee member: I am thankful for your feedback and
for the interest that you have shown in my research.

To Ms. Marry Anne Sennet, our family friend, thank you for the support and efforts that you
have given throughout the writing of my dissertation. I also would like to thank my friend,
Kaveh Shahabi, for his cooperation throughout the period of time that I have worked on my
research and dissertation. Many thanks are owed to my family for their support
and encouragement. I hope I have made you proud and will always continue to do so. It has been
a long journey filled with obstacles and challenges. However, with your untiring support and
efforts, I was able to make it to this point. Lastly, for my dear wife and my children (Mohamed
and Maryam), you were among the best in giving me the motivation and support to reach my

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goal. It is hard to believe the number and the difficulty of the challenges we overcame over the
past few years, especially when I was away from you. I am so happy for the accomplishments
that we have achieved, and I am really proud of you and the future I imagine before us. Thank
you.

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. ix

List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. xiv
Abstract ..........................................................................................................................................xv
1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................1
1.1 Research Background ....................................................................................................1
1.2 Importance and Contribution of Research .....................................................................3
1.3 Broader Impacts .............................................................................................................4
1.4 Limitations of Research .................................................................................................4
1.5 Organization of Research ...............................................................................................5
2. LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................................8
2.1 History of Evacuation ....................................................................................................9

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2.2 Evacuation Research ...................................................................................................11
2.3 Evacuation Planning ....................................................................................................12
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2.4 Components of Evacuation Studies ..............................................................................16
2.4.1 Hazard Analysis .............................................................................................16
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2.4.2 Vulnerability Analysis ....................................................................................17
2.4.3 Behavioral Analysis ........................................................................................19
2.4.4 Transportation Analysis ..................................................................................20
2.5 Tsunami Evacuation Studies ........................................................................................21
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3. GEOGRAPHIC DATA .........................................................................................................32

3.1 MOST Model Product..................................................................................................32
3.2 Demographic and Transportation Data ........................................................................34
3.3 Limitation of the Data ..................................................................................................35
3.3.1 MOST Model Limitations...............................................................................35
3.3.2 Census and Road Data Limitations .................................................................36
3.4 Study Area ...................................................................................................................37
3.4.1 Tsunami History in Orange County, California .............................................39
3.4.2 Tsunami Evacuation Planning in Orange County, California .......................39
4. TSUNAMI EVACUATION AND HAZARD ANAALYSIS ...............................................42
4.1 Delineate Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation Zones .................................................43
4.1.1 Convert MOST Model Maps to GIS Format (Evacuation Zone) ..................43

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 4.1.2 Define Shadow Evacuation Zone...................................................................47
4.2 Number of Households in Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation Zones .......................48
4.3 Number of Vehicles per Household in Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation Zones ...50
5. BEHAVIORAL ANALYSIS AND SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE ....................................55
5.1 Survey Questionnaire ...................................................................................................56
5.2 Information Sources and Residents Awareness in Orange County, California:
Tsunami Knowledge, Beliefs, and Perceived Vulnerability ........................................58
5.2.1 General Knowledge ........................................................................................58
5.2.2 Tsunami Perception and Beliefs .....................................................................59
5.2.3 Information Sources .......................................................................................63
5.3 Tsunami Scenarios .......................................................................................................71
5.3.1 Intention for Evacuation ................................................................................71

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5.3.2 Refuge Type ...................................................................................................72
5.3.3 Main Evacuation Roads..................................................................................74

5.4
5.3.4
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Vehicle Usage for Evacuation ........................................................................75
Demographic Characteristics .......................................................................................77
5.5 Physical Characteristics ...............................................................................................80
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5.6 Demographic Characteristics of Orange County, CA..................................................82
6. EVACUATION PARTICIPATION RATE AND TRIP GENERATION............................87
6.1 Evacuation Participation Rate ......................................................................................88
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6.1.1 Logistic Regression Models ...........................................................................88

6.2 Data .91
6.3 Logistic Regression Models for Each of the Three Tsunami Scenarios (10-, 20-, 30-
foot) ..............................................................................................................................93
6.3.1 Enter Method .................................................................................................93
6.3.2 Backward Stepwise Method ..........................................................................99
6.4 Predicting Number of Evacuees.................................................................................105
6.5 Estimating Number of Evacuating Vehicles (Trip Generation) ................................109
7. EVACUATION MODELING AND CLEARANCE TIME...............................................111
7.1 Overview of CASPER Tool .......................................................................................112
7.2 Assumptions...............................................................................................................113
7.3 The CASPER Construct.............................................................................................113
7.4 Data in the CASPER Tool .........................................................................................115

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 7.5 CASPER Tool Processing Phases..............................................................................116
7.5.1 Phase 1 ........................................................................................................116
7.5.2 Phase 2 ........................................................................................................116
7.5.3 Phase 3 ........................................................................................................117
7.6 Comparing the Power Model to the Bureau of Public Roads Function .....................118
7.7 Tsunami Evacuation Modeling Approaches ..............................................................120
7.8 Modeling Tsunami Evacuation Scenarios Results .....................................................122
7.8.1 One-Second, Initial-Delay Cost per Evacuee Approach.............................122
7.8.2 Seven-Seconds, Initial-Delay Cost per Evacuee Approach ........................124
7.8.3 CASPER Limitations ..................................................................................127
8. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE RESEARCH...................................................................134
8.1 Chapter Summary ......................................................................................................135

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8.2 Importance of Research and Its Broader Impacts ......................................................141
8.3 Future Research .........................................................................................................146
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APPENDICES .............................................................................................................................148
A. TELEPHONE SURVEY .....................................................................................................148
B. HUMAN SUBJECT COMMITTEE APPROVAL LETTERS ...........................................168
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C. PERMISSION EMAIL TO USE MOST MODEL MAPS..................................................170

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................171
BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH .......................................................................................................182
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 LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1 Current tsunami evacuation studies that consider evacuation process
components ........................................................................................................................22

Table 4.1 Total number of household per block group for evacuation and shadow
evacuation zones ...............................................................................................................50

Table 4.2 Total number of vehicles per household for evacuation and shadow evacuation
zones ..................................................................................................................................52

Table 5.1 Q1) What is the most frequent cause of tsunamis? ............................................59

Table 5.2 Q2) When did the last tsunami cause damage to coastal areas in California?...59

Table 5.3 Q12) Do you live in a tsunami inundation hazard zone? ...................................60

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Table 5.4 Q13) How high is the first floor of your house from sea level? ........................60

Table 5.5 Q14) Which of the following signs might warn you about possible tsunami? ..61
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Table 5.6 Q16) Which of these locations is/are considered to be a significant source of
earthquake that might generate a local tsunami along the coast of Orange County? ........61
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Table 5.7 Q17) Which of these locations is/are considered to be a significant source of
earthquake that might generate a distant tsunami along the coast of Orange County? ...62

Table 5.8 Q18) How long does it take a tsunami waves generated from local earthquake
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or landslide to arrive to Orange County? ..........................................................................62

Table 5.9 Q19) How long does it take a tsunami from a distant earthquake to arrive to
Orange County? .................................................................................................................62

Table 5.10 Q20) Would you leave your home to go someplace safer from a possible
tsunami if you felt an earthquake? .....................................................................................63

Table 5.11 Q21) Would you evacuate your home in case of a tsunami evacuation warning
because of..? .......................................................................................................................64

Table 5.12 Q22) What would be the main reason/s you wouldnt evacuate your home in
case of a tsunami affecting the coastal areas of Orange County? ......................................66

Table 5.13 Q66) Do you know what vertical evacuation means? .....................................67

Table 5.14 Q67) Are you planning to use it? .....................................................................67

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Table 5.15 Q3) Are you familiar with the Orange County Alert system, sometimes called
OCAlert? ............................................................................................................................67

Table 5.16 Q4) Are you registered in it? ...........................................................................67

Table 5.17 Q5) Do you have access to the internet at home? ............................................67

Table 5.18 Q6) Do you have internet access on your cell phone? .....................................68

Table 5.19 Q7) Does anyone else in your household have internet on their cell phone?..68

Table 5.20 Q8) Do you have a social media account such as Facebook or Twitter? .......68

Table 5.21 Q9) How often do you use social media? ........................................................68

Table 5.22 Q10) Do you have a NOAA Weather Radio in your home? ...........................68

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Table 5.23 Q11) When deciding whether to evacuate from future tsunami, to what extent
would you rely on each of the following for information? ................................................69
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Table 5.24 Q23, 38 and 52) If the government officials suggested an evacuation for a 10,
20, and 30 ft tsunami affecting the Orange County coast, would you evacuate your home?
............................................................................................................................................71
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Table 5.25 Q24, 40, and 54) How soon would you evacuate your home if the government
officials suggested an immediate evacuation for a 10, 20, and 30 ft tsunami affecting the
Orange County coast? ........................................................................................................72
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Table 5.26 Q26, 42, and 56) What type of refuge you would seek if you decided to
evacuate your home based on the evacuation suggestion issued by the government? ......73

Table 5.27 Q27, 43, and 57) Where would that refuge be located? ..................................73

Table 5.28 Q29, 45, and 59) How far do you think you would need to evacuate inland
based on your home location if government officials suggested an evacuation from a 10,
20, and 30 ft tsunami? ........................................................................................................74

Table 5.29 Q31, 46, 60) What main roads would you use if the government officials
suggested an evacuation for 10, 20, and 30 ft tsunami impacting the Orange County? ....75

Table 5.30 Q34, 49, and 63) How long do you think it would take you to get to your
planned safe evacuation location if government officials suggested an evacuation of a
possible 10, 20, and 30 ft tsunami? ....................................................................................75

Table 5.31 Q36, 50, and 64) How many vehicles would be available in your household
that you could use to evacuate? .........................................................................................76

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Table 5.32 Q37, 51, and 65) How many vehicles would your household take if you
evacuated? ..........................................................................................................................76

Table 5.33 Q39, and 53) Would you evacuate to the same location in the same way as
you would for a 10 or 20 ft tsunami? .................................................................................77

Table 5.34 Q68) How old were you on your last birthday?...............................................77

Table 5.35 Q69) Which of the following best describes your race? ..................................78

Table 5.36 Q70) Which of these best describes your ethnic background? ........................78

Table 5.37 Q71) What is your marital status? ...................................................................78

Table 5.38 Q72) What is your highest level of education?................................................79

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Table 5.39 Q81) Was the respondent male or female? ......................................................79

Table 5.40 Q73) What is your yearly household income in 2013? ...................................80
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Table 5.41 Q75) Is there anyone in your household with a disability? .............................80
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Table 5.42 Q76) What is the disability? ............................................................................80

Table 5.43 Physical characteristics of the surveyed household in Orange County, CA for
the (10, 20, and 30 ft) tsunami scenarios ...........................................................................81
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Table 5.44 The characteristics of age, gender, and race for the population of Orange
County, CA ........................................................................................................................83

Table 5.45 The percentage of the educated people in Orange County, CA.......................84

Table 5.46 The income level for the population of Orange County, CA...........................84

Table 5.47 Different disability types for the population of Orange County, CA ..............84

Table 6.1 Demographic variables codes in SPSS for logistic regression ..........................92

Table 6.2 Physical variables codes in SPSS for logistic regression ..................................92

Table 6.3 The output of the logistic regression model using the enter method for 10-ft
tsunami ...............................................................................................................................95

Table 6.4 The output of the logistic regression model using the enter method for 20-ft
tsunami ..............................................................................................................................96

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Table 6.5 The output of the logistic regression model using the enter method for 30-ft
tsunami ...............................................................................................................................97

Table 6.6 The output of the logistic regression model using the Backward Stepwise LR
method for a 10-foot tsunami scenario ............................................................................100

Table 6.7 The output of the logistic regression model using the Backward Stepwise LR
method for a 20-foot tsunami scenario ............................................................................100

Table 6.8 The output of the logistic regression model suing the Backward Stepwise LR
method for a 30-foot tsunami scenario ............................................................................101

Table 6.9 Equivalent R Square statistical measures for 10-ft tsunami scenario using
Backward Stepwise method .............................................................................................102

Table 6.10 Percentage of correct predictions using only the constant in the 10-ft tsunami
model................................................................................................................................102

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Table 6.11 Percentage of correct predictions after including the variable zone in the 10-ft
tsunami model ..................................................................................................................102
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Table 6.12 Equivalent R Square statistical measures for 20-ft tsunami scenario using
Backward Stepwise method .............................................................................................103
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Table 6.13 Percentage of correct predictions using only the constant in the 20-ft tsunami
model................................................................................................................................103

Table 6.14 Percentage of correct predictions after including the variable zone and gender
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in the 20-ft tsunami model ...............................................................................................103

Table 6.15 Equivalent R Square statistical measures for 30-ft tsunami scenario using
Backward Stepwise method .............................................................................................104

Table 6.16 Percentage of correct predictions using only the constant in the 30-ft tsunami
model................................................................................................................................104

Table 6.17 Percentage of correct predictions after including the variable zone and gender
in the 30-ft tsunami model ...............................................................................................104

Table 6.18 Evacuation participation rate using the prediction models ............................108

Table 6.19 Tsunami evacuation participation rate based on the survey results ...............108

Table 7.1 Tsunami evacuation time with and without congestion for 10-ft tsunami
scenario using 1 second Initial Delay Cost approach ......................................................123

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Table 7.2 Tsunami evacuation time with and without congestion for 20-ft tsunami
scenario using 1 second Initial Delay Cost approach ......................................................124

Table 7.3 Tsunami evacuation time with and without congestion for 30-ft tsunami
scenario using 1 second Initial Delay Cost approach ......................................................124

Table 7.4 Tsunami evacuation time with and without congestion for 10-ft tsunami
scenario using 7 second Initial Delay Cost approach ......................................................125

Table 7.5 Tsunami evacuation time with and without congestion for 20-ft tsunami
scenario using 7 second Initial Delay Cost approach ......................................................126

Table 7.6 Tsunami evacuation time with and without congestion for 30-ft tsunami
scenario using 7 second Initial Delay Cost approach ......................................................126

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 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1 The interactive relationship between human behaviors and transportation
system in making the evacuation decision for a disaster ...................................................13

Figure 3.1 The inundation line produced from the MOST model (Department of
Conservation, 2014) ...........................................................................................................33

Figure 3.2 Location of Orange County and its subdivisions .............................................38

Figure 4.1 MOST model inundation with the USGS 24K Quads for Orange County,
CA ......................................................................................................................................44

Figure 4.2 Orange County tsunami inundation maps produced using MOST model ........45

Figure 4.3 Sample of MOST model map of Orange County, CA .....................................46

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Figure 4.4 The distance of the farthest inundation point (7,254 m), evacuation zone.......47

Figure 4.5 Tsunami evacuation and shadow evacuation zone for Orange County, CA ....49
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Figure 4.6 Centroids of the US Census block group polygons within evacuation zone ....51
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Figure 4.7 The concentration of the number of households within the evacuation zone ..51

Figure 4.8 The concentration of the number of households within the shadow evacuation
zone ....................................................................................................................................52
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Figure 4.9 The total number of vehicles per household in the evacuation zone ................53

Figure 4.10 The total number of vehicles per household in the shadow evacuation zone 53

Figure 7.1 10 ft tsunami evacuation routes using one second for the initial delay cost per
evacuee and 500 saturation density per unit capacity ......................................................130

Figure 7.2 10 ft tsunami evacuation routes using one second for the initial delay cost per
evacuee and 200 saturation density per unit capacity ......................................................131

Figure 7.3 10 ft tsunami evacuation routes using seven seconds for the initial delay cost
per evacuee and 500 saturation density per unit capacity ................................................132

Figure 7.4 10 ft tsunami evacuation routes using seven seconds for the initial delay cost
per evacuee and 200 saturation density per unit capacity ................................................133

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 ABSTRACT

This dissertation adds to ongoing research efforts that seek a better understanding of the
complex relationships between human beings and their environment. Specifically, the impact of
natural disasters on coastal communities from the sudden occurrences of such disasters and their
potentially devastating consequences e g., earthquakes and tsunamis requires communities to
be prepared, by planning specific land-use polices and by developing evacuation plans. Through
identifying the locations of populations at risk of a tsunami, determining their behavioral
responses during an evacuation, and utilizing a GIS evacuation tool Capacity-Aware Shortest
Path Evacuation Routing (CASPER), the research reported in this dissertation proposes a means
to predict the number of evacuating vehicles from various tsunami scenarios and calculate
evacuation clearance time for these scenarios. Motivated by the need to provide new ways to use

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the results of the behavioral analysis in evacuation modeling, this study developed a
methodology to predict the number of evacuating vehicles based on the result of the behavioral
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analysis to estimate the evacuation clearance time using evacuation modeling. In order to
estimate the evacuation clearance time, a framework was utilized and is described in four
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analytical chapters of this dissertation chapters 4 7: Chapter 4 identifies the population at
risk of tsunami. Chapter 5 explores the characteristics of the sample population; Chapter 6 offers
predictions on the number of evacuating vehicles, and, Chapter 7 models the evacuation process
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to estimate the evacuation clearance time with and without congestion. Each of these chapters
interconnects with the succeeding chapter as they together complete the framework used to
model evacuation clearance time. The ability to assess the preparedness for a natural hazard will
broaden the understanding of the relationship between behavioral responses and evacuation
transportation options, which in turn will provide planners, government officials, and
geographers the required knowledge to address related planning issues such as evacuation
planning and sustainable development.

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 CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

One of the traditional lines of research in the study of geography is that of the
interaction of the complex relationships between humans and their environment. The impact
of natural disasters on human activities has been among the topics of greatest interest to
researchers in human-environment studies. The sudden occurrence of natural disasters that
have the potential to result in devastating consequences, such as earthquakes and tsunamis,
requires communities to be prepared by planning specific land-use polices and by
developing evacuation plans. The variations in socioeconomic and demographic
characteristics of a society -- in addition to the variety of physical settings that can affect the

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character of a disaster -- necessitate developing models that better explain this interactive
relationship.
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By identifying the locations of populations at risk of a tsunami and determining their
evacuation participation rate, the research reported in this dissertation proposes a means to
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calculate evacuation clearance time in face of a tsunami threat. The clearance-time

calculation is based on an assessment of both behavioral responses and road-network
capacity. The research reported here models the evacuation decisions of residents within the
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population study group and produces a methodology that evaluates the preparedness of
coastal communities in the context of different tsunami scenarios. The ability to assess the
preparedness for a natural hazard will broaden the understanding of the relationship between
behavioral responses and evacuation transportation options. Such understanding will, in
turn, provide planners, government officials, and geographers the required knowledge to
address related planning issues, such as evacuation planning and sustainable development.

1.1 Research Background

In 2010, 39 percent of the population of the United States, roughly more than 123
million people, lived in coastal shoreline counties (NOAAs state of the coast, 2014).
Furthermore, the density of the United States coastal shoreline population is expected to

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increase to 37 person/mi2 between 2010 and 2020 (Woods and Poole, 2011). This increase
in the density of the coastal population will be accompanied by shifts in demographic
structures, an increase in urban sprawl, and variations in such demographic characteristics as
an increase in the elderly population (Strategic Foresight Initiative, 2014). All of these
changes are expected to affect the emergency management activities, including evacuation
planning to protect the coastal communities from coastal hazards (NOAAs state of the
coast, 2014; Strategic Foresight Initiative, 2014).

Research shows that behavioral responses of evacuees during an evacuation are

generally affected by a number of socioeconomic factors such as age, race/ethnicity,
education, family size, and social/physical cues (Trainor et al, 2013). Therefore, variation in

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the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics from one coastal population to another
will result in different evacuation responses of the evacuees, affecting in turn the evacuation
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process. There has been considerable evacuation behavioral research developed side-by-side
with evacuation transportation modeling to understand the evacuation process and to plan
for it according (Lewis, 1985; ORNL, 1995; PBS&J, 2000; Franzese and Han, 2001;
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Urbina, 2002; Lindell and Prater, 2007; Yazici and Ozbay, 2008; Trainor et al, 2013). The
research setting for evacuation from a transportation perspective differs from that of a social
science perspective. Transportation evacuation modeling usually starts with a problem that
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needs to be solved and/or a system that needs to be designed or redesigned to solve the
problem; whereas social scientists are interested in creating theories or empirical tests while
studying evacuation to explain how people act in case of an evacuation order in the event of
a specific hazard (Trainor et al, 2013). Having differing research settings and focuses for
behavioral and evacuation transportation modelers has led to the creation of a problem:
behavioral findings cannot be directly transformed into simulation models (Lindell and
Prater, 2007).

Although a number of studies have aimed to improve evacuation research by

integrating the behavioral characteristics of evacuees and various traffic evacuation models,
there has remained a miscommunication between the two. Thus, it is the intention of this
research to continue to build on the body of research that has worked to fill this need. More

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specifically, this dissertation aims to contribute to the field of evacuation research through
integrating the demographic characteristics of a population with transportation modeling in
the context of evacuation in tsunami events.

1.2 Importance and Contribution of Research

The conceptual setting of this research, in addition to the nature of the data used in
this dissertation, suggests that this dissertation would be classified as interdisciplinary
research. This dissertation will contribute to the tsunami evacuation literature, specifically in
the United States since there is a lack of tsunami evacuation studies in this part of the world.
This dissertation contributes to the general knowledge through introducing a methodology to

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communicate/convert the findings from a behavioral analysis to a transportation analysis in
order to estimate evacuation clearance time. This is done through using statistical models to
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identify the most significant variables that contribute to the evacuation intention in order to
predict the number of evacuees a calculation necessary to model the evacuation process
in transportation modeling. This dissertation also will contribute to the field of geography by
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utilizing the notation of expectation, a statistical method to address scale issues related to the
prediction models that were built based on data collected at the individual level, then used to
make predictions on data at the aggregated level (census block group data).
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For purposes of emergency management, this research contributes to the ability to

identify vulnerable populations, those at risk of tsunami, through delineating the extent of
the shadow evacuation zone in the event of an impending tsunami. Furthermore, identifying
the evacuation intention rates for different tsunami scenarios and predicting the expected
number of evacuating vehicles, based on vehicle occupancy, will benefit emergency
management officials by offering them a means to estimate the expected number of
evacuating vehicles in the event of a tsunami. Emergency management officials will benefit,
in addition, through an understanding of how the evacuation process can be enhanced by the
use of CASPER tool: e.g., giving them the ability to produce simulated evacuation routes
and to estimate evacuation time. In broader application, it is hoped that as this study
furthers understandings of the tsunami evacuation process, it will, as well, lead to the

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support of the sustainability of coastal communities through producing planning policies
derived from the output of such research.

1.3 Broader Impacts

This research is expected to benefit emergency managers and public officials in

various ways. First, utilizing GIS to delineate the shadow evacuation zone will assist in
identifying the spatial distribution of vulnerable populations, potentially at risk of a tsunami.
Hypothesizing the magnitude of such a tsunami (i.e., the wave height) allows planners to
view more than one possible scenario and the possible impacts of each on the public
response and the evacuation process. Evacuation planners can estimate evacuation demand

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by using the predicted number of evacuating vehicles and the available clearance time that
was simulated by CASPER tool with and without congestion. Estimating the evacuation
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demand and the clearance time may lead to enhance the current evacuation plans, or, may
lead to redesign the evacuation routes in a way that better meets the needs of a revised,
expected number of evacuees in order to reduce evacuation clearance time. Further, this
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research is expected to benefit academia, especially those professionals interested in
evacuation research, by introducing the method of using prediction models built on data at
the individual level to make predictions using data at the aggregated level. Such a method
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can help bridge the communication gap between the findings of behavioral analysts and
those who work with transportation modeling, not only for tsunami evacuation, but also for
any type of hazard event that requires an evacuation.

1.4 Limitations of Research

Although this dissertation is expected to contribute to various disciplines including

geography, transportation and urban planning, it has limitations. First, the results of this
research are restricted by the data quality and availability. The MOST model inundation line
that was used to delineate the evacuation zone in this research represents tsunami inundation
of the worst-case scenario that was produced by several tsunamis (See Chapter 3 for greater
detail). This indicates that the evacuation zone used in this research should not necessary be

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inundated entirely from one single tsunami event. Also, the accuracy of the MOST model
depends on the accuracy of the DEM that was used in the modeling process. The behavioral
data analysis that was used to predict the evacuation participation rate was based on only 235
samples due to a limitation in the financial resource to collect more samples. Increasing the
sample size might produce different evacuation trends in various tsunami scenarios.
Increasing the sample size would likely produce different evacuation trends in various
tsunami scenarios. The distribution of the sample size, with the majority of the sample being
in the evacuation zone, affected the results of the prediction models: more samples collected
in the shadow evacuation zone would have allowed greater consistency with the census data
used in the prediction models. CASPER tool was able to locate evacuation routes and
estimate congested and uncongested evacuation times, but with large amounts of travel

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time(s) due to the impact of the global parameters which treat all the roads the same way;
conversely, traffic assignment models, which do not treat all roads the same, are able to re-
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route the traffic to an alternate route to reduce the overall travel time. The clearance time that
was calculated using the behavioral responses was not based on day/or night tsunami
scenarios. A daytime tsunami evacuation order versus a nighttime order might affect the
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evacuation participation rate since evacuee activities or occupations may vary greatly
depending on time of day the evacuation order is received. This research focused only on
private vehicle evacuation, whereas there are other possible means of evacuation that could
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be used in a tsunami event, such as motorcycle, public transportation, or by foot.

1.5 Organization of Research

Chapter 1 has introduced the issues explored throughout this dissertation. This
research develops a methodological framework to link the behavioral responses of evacuees
to the evacuation transportation modeling; the purpose of the research is to use
socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the evacuees to predict the number of
evacuating vehicles and simulate the evacuation process using GIS to calculate the
evacuation clearance time. It is hoped the contributions of this research will affect the
ongoing development policies and plans of the coastal communities.

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 Chapter 2 reviews a broad body of literature related to the conceptual and analytical
chapters found later in the dissertation. The first two sections explore the history of
evacuation in order to track the development of evacuation research originating from within
various disciplines. The third section, which focuses on evacuation planning, reviews a
number of studies in which evacuation practices and strategies were the focus. The forth
section reviews the evacuation components of varying hazard types. Finally, several tsunami
evacuation studies, each utilizing differing methods and evacuation components are
discussed.

Chapter 3 summarizes both the study area and data used throughout the conceptual
and analytical chapters of this dissertation. A description of the MOST (Method of Splitting

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Tsunami) model maps that are used in this research is presented in terms of the simulation
process and the characteristics of its final product. The limitation of the data that are used in
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this research is explained. This chapter also provides an overview of tsunami history and
tsunami evacuation planning in Orange County, California.
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Chapter 4 is the first of the analytical chapters in this dissertation. The evacuation and
shadow evacuation zones used throughout this research is developed using the inundation
line of the MOST model in this chapter. These zones are used to identify the populations at
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risk of tsunami and their distribution. In addition, the distribution of the number of
households and the number of vehicles per block group are identified based on these two
zones. Identifying the evacuation and shadow evacuation zones is necessary for collecting
the behavioral data in Chapter 5, predicting the number of evacuees in Chapters 6 and
simulating the evacuation process in Chapter 7.

Chapter 5 is another methodological chapter that describes the behavioral

characteristics of the sampled population. It begins with the importance of the behavioral
analysis in predicting the evacuation participation rate and the factors that affect the
behavioral analysis. A description of the survey design is then given in addition to a general
description of the survey sections, which are: 1) information sources and resident awareness
in Orange County, California, 2) evacuation scenario (10-, 20-, 30-foot), 3) demographic

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information. These descriptions are followed by details of the responses for each question in
the three sections. The physical characteristics -- including distance, elevation, and location
-- are described for the whole sampled population.

Chapter 6 begins with an explanation of the logistic regression model as a mean of

linking the output of the behavioral data with the transportation network to estimate the
evacuation clearance time (Chapter 7). The logistic regression model has the capability of
predicting the evacuation participation rate based on the demographic and physical
characteristics of each respondent. Two methods of logistic regression model are tested,
Enter and Backward Stepwise. The output of the Backward Stepwise method showed higher
statistically significant results when compared with the results of the Enter method. The

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output of the logistic regression model, using the Backward Stepwise method, was used to
predict the evacuation participation rate for the population at risk in all three tsunami
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scenarios. This research provides not only the number of evacuees for each tsunami
scenario, but also the number of evacuating vehicles, which was used to model the
evacuation process and estimate the clearance time reported in Chapter 7.
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Chapter 7 introduces a new evacuation-modeling tool to simulate the evacuation

process and calculate the evacuation clearance time. The CASPER tool (Capacity-Aware
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Shortest Path Evacuation Routing) produces evacuation routes based on road capacity and
number of evacuees. The tool goes through three data preparation phases: building the road
network, specifying the evacuation and safe zones, and selecting the Power model for
evacuation. This chapter demonstrates the use of the CASPER tool to model the evacuation
process and estimate the evacuation clearance time with and without congestion. Different
clearance times, based on vehicle occupancy, for the three tsunami scenarios are then
reported to conclude the chapter.

Chapter 8 is the final chapter of this dissertation. It summarizes the major findings
reported in the analytical chapters (4 -7) and presents these findings in terms that suggest
broader conclusions may be drawn. Also, this chapter provides suggestions for the
implementation of this research as well as possible directions for future research.

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 CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

Natural disasters by their very nature vary widely. In addition to their uniqueness of
origin whether by the movement of plates within the depths of the earth, a volcanic eruption,
force of wind or water, on land or sea there are also the variables within each of these forces
that can make them more or less destructive. These are based largely on the factors of location
and intensity or size. People have for centuries and beyond tried to reduce the impact of such
disasters as they have at the same time struggled to deal with these disasters within the context of
the ever-changing elements of their natural and man-made environments. Such efforts, in more
recent times, have included measures that range from legalistic in character to those that utilize

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such fields as social, geological and technological sciences.

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Numerous examples exist: building codes have been instituted to safeguard structures;
evacuation plans that consider human behavioral patterns maximize the secure exit of a
population in danger from the effects of a disaster. And, complicating the success of all efforts to
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secure populations at risk are the ever-changing, evolving challenges posed by such phenomena
as rapid increases in population and the resulting explosions of urban development both of
which increase the complexity of a successful evacuation of a given population in the event of a
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natural disaster (Pel et al, 2012).

Lim et al (2013) defined evacuation as a critical part of disaster management as it entails

moving people at risk to safety. Another detailed definition of evacuation, as cited by Abed El-
Hameis et al (2012) is a crisis management activity in which all or part of the population is
temporary relocated, whether in an organized or unorganized manner, from the location that has
been struck, or is about to be struck by a disaster, to a place not considered to be dangerous in
term of the health and safety. Generally, there are several factors that make the evacuation
effective: warning and response time, information and instruction and the dissemination
procedure, evacuation routes, traffic flow conditions, and dynamic traffic control measures (Lim
et al, 2013). However, not all evacuations can follow the same procedures since each evacuation
is somewhat unique, depending on such variables as: socioeconomic factors, infrastructure