Forecasting

SQQS3163 FORECASTING METHOD
SECOND SEMESTER SESSION 2016/2017 (A162)
GROUP ASSIGNMENT
Submitted to:
KAMAL BIN KHALID
Prepared by:
MATRIC. NO. NAME

1 232636 GOH PEI PEI
2 232639 ANGIE CHONG SIN YI
3 232930 CHOON SUI FONG
4 234985 WEE ZHEE WUEI
Submitted date
1 JUNE 2017
UUM COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES

UNIVERSITI UTARA MALAYSIA
Table of Contents
Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................... i

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 1
1.1 Overview of the study ................................................................................................. 1
1.2 Problem statement ....................................................................................................... 1
1.3 Objective of the study ................................................................................................. 1
1.4 Significant of the study ............................................................................................... 2
CHAPTER 2 METHODOLOGY .......................................................................................... 3
CHAPTER 3 RESULT AND DISCUSSION ......................................................................... 4
3.1 Pattern of Data ............................................................................................................. 4
3.1.1 Plotting ................................................................................................................. 4
3.1.2 Autocorrelation Plot ............................................................................................. 5
3.1.3 Kruskal Wallis Test.............................................................................................. 6
3.2 Forecasting Methods ................................................................................................... 7
3.2.1 Additive Decomposition Method ......................................................................... 7
3.2.2 Multiplicative Decomposition Method .............................................................. 13
3.2.3 Naive Seasonal Trend ........................................................................................ 18
3.2.4 Holt-Winter's Additive Exponential Smoothing ................................................ 20
3.2.5 Holt-Winter's Multiplicative Exponential Smoothing ....................................... 24
3.3 The Best Model ......................................................................................................... 28
3.3.1 Models Comparison ........................................................................................... 28
3.3.2 Future Forecast................................................................................................... 29
CHAPTER 4 CONCLUSION .............................................................................................. 30
REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................... 31
APPENDIX 32
i
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Overview of the study
This study used the data which is about the monthly rainfall amount of Cameron Highland in
terms of millimetre from years 2005 to 2015. A few techniques have used in this study based
on the pattern of the data to forecast the monthly rainfall amount of Cameron Highland in future.
The most suitable technique will be chosen based on the lowest error measurement among
those techniques. The original data may refer to APPENDIX I.
1.2 Problem statement
The problem of climate change in the world is getting more serious. One of the critical factors
to determine the overall impact of climate change is the change of the rainfall and other forms
of precipitation. Based on Ogburn, S.P., the climate model predict that the pattern of
precipitation might classified in two main ways which is strengthening of existing precipitation
patterns and change in storm tracks (Ogburn, 2013). Strengthening of existing precipitation
patterns commonly called wet get wetter, dry get drier. The change in storm tracks which
should move away from the equator and toward the poles as atmosphere circulation changes
(Clark, 2011). Therefore, the changes in weather patterns that make predicting rainfall
particularly difficult. Thus, what is the most appropriate technique to forecast the monthly
rainfall?
1.3 Objective of the study
Generally, this study attempt to identify the most suitable technique to forecast the monthly
rainfall amount. Specifically, this study aimed:
i. To identify the pattern of the rainfall amount of Cameron Highland.

ii. To determine the most suitable technique to forecast the monthly rainfall of Cameron
Highland.
iii. To forecast the monthly rainfall amount of Cameron Highland in the year 2016.
1
1.4 Significant of the study
The significant of the study is to provide weather forecasts and warnings of hazardous weather.
Therefore, the person in charge able to prepare for the upcoming bad weather in order to
minimize the possibility of loss caused by bad weather.
2
CHAPTER 2
METHODOLOGY
The main purpose of this paper is to choose the best forecasting model to predict the
future value. The data collection that we used is secondary data, which is obtain from the online.
Firstly, in order to choose suitable forecasting methods for the data series, the pattern
of the data series is determined through plotting, autocorrelation plotting and Kruskal Wallis
test. Data series is found contain trend and seasonal component.
After that, suitable forecasting methods for the data series that contain both trend and
seasonal component are chosen. Thus, decomposition method (additive and multiplicative),
naive seasonal trend and Holt-Winters method (additive and multiplicative) have been chosen
for forecast in this paper.
Next, the five different forecasting methods have applied into the data series by using
second approach of forecasting, which also known as modelling, evaluation and forecasting
approach. By using this second approach, the data series was split into two parts n1 and n2.
Modelling using n1 data which consists of 120 monthly data, while the evaluation using n2 data
which consist of 12 monthly data.
Then forecast error for each type of forecasting method has computed for modelling
and evaluation. Forecast error among these five different forecasting method are compared and
the one with the smallest error is chosen as the best model for forecasting that data series.
Finally, the chosen best model is recomputed for forecast the data series by using all
the data series which is 132 (n1 + n2). After all, the model is used to forecast data for year 2016.
3
CHAPTER 3
RESULT AND DISCUSSION
3.1 Pattern of Data
The first step for forecasting is to determine the pattern of the data series. Different pattern or
component contain in the data series have different forecasting method that will be choosen to
be used for forecast purpose. There are three ways to identify the pattern of the data series,
which are plotting, autocorrelation plotting and Kruskal Wallis test.
3.1.1 Plotting
The monthly rainfall amount (Yt) and time (t) is plotted by using SPSS software to check
whether the data series have trend.
Based on the graph (Yt vs t) above, the trend component of the data series is undefined.
Therefore, next method which is autocorrelation is proceeded.
4
3.1.2 Autocorrelation Plot
In autocorrelation, the correlation within the same variable is tested. The autocorrelation graph
is plotted by using SPSS software with the lag number of 132 which considered all of the data.
Based on the autocorrelation plot, the data for monthly rainfall amount (Yt) is identified have
seasonal and trend component. The data is considered as seasonal because the data have a
repeated pattern of change that complete itself within a calendar year. Besides, the
autocorrelation graph is moving slowly approximate to zero which shows that the data series
have trend. Thus, the data for monthly rainfall amount (Yt) has seasonal and trend components.
5
3.1.3 Kruskal Wallis Test
Kruskal Wallis is a statistical test for seasonality. Kruskal Wallis for additive and multiplicative
cases are tested by using the SPSS software.
Additive cases:
Test Statisticsa,b
Snt_add_Et
Chi-Square 47.368
df 11
Asymp. Sig. .000
a. Kruskal Wallis Test
b. Grouping Variable:
Treatment
H0: Sn1 = Sn1 = Sn2 = Sn3 = Sn4 = Sn5 = Sn6 = Sn7 = Sn8 = Sn9 = Sn10 = Sn11 = Sn12 =0
H1: Snt 0 for some seasons.
P-value = 0.000
= 0.025
P-value < (Reject H0)
Conclusion: There is seasonality in the data.
Multiplicative cases:
Test Statisticsa,b
Snt.Et
Chi-Square 40.346
df 11
Asymp. Sig. .000
a. Kruskal Wallis Test
b. Grouping Variable:
Treatment
H0: Sn1 = Sn1 = Sn2 = Sn3 = Sn4 = Sn5 = Sn6 = Sn7 = Sn8 = Sn9 = Sn10 = Sn11 = Sn12 =1
H1: Snt 1 for some seasons.
P-value = 0.000
= 0.025
P-value < (Reject H0)
Conclusion: There is seasonality in the data.
6
3.2 Forecasting Methods
The data for monthly rainfall amount (Yt) contain the trend and seasonality components. Thus,
the method that is selected to forecast the monthly rainfall amount are decomposition method
(additive and multiplicative), Naive seasonal trend and Holt-Winters method (additive and
multiplicative).
3.2.1 Additive Decomposition Method
Decomposition method is suite for all component of the data. Thus, decomposition have been
used for this paper. To find the forecast values for additive decomposition method, there are
several steps to be followed. The excel output for additive decomposition method will be
presented at APPENDIX II.
Step 1: Divided the data into modelling purpose with n1 = 120 and evaluation purpose with n2
= 12 for second approach forecasting.
Step 2: Compute the moving average for the Yt for modelling (n1).
1st MA = (24.5 + 99.3 + 190.4 + 217.9 + 199.8 + 227.2 + 235 + 137.1 + 157.4 + 450.4
+ 401.2 + 551.6) / 12
= 240.9833
2nd MA = (99.3 + 190.4 + 217.9 + 199.8 + 227.2 + 235 + 137.1 + 157.4 + 450.4 + 401.2
+ 551.6 + 208.8) / 12
= 256.3417
3rd MA = (190.4 + 217.9 + 199.8 + 227.2 + 235 + 137.1 + 157.4 + 450.4 + 401.2 +
551.6 + 208.8 + 149.2) / 12
= 260.5000
7
Step 3: Compute centred moving average for moving average for modelling (n1).
CMA7 = (240.9833 + 256.3417) / 2
= 248.6625
CMA8 = (256.3417 + 260.5000) / 2
= 258.4208
CMA9 = (260.5000 + 259.7500) / 2

= 260.1250
Step 4: Compute the Snt t by divide the CMA with Yt for modelling (n1).
Sn7 - 7 = 235.0 - 248.6625 = - 13.6625
Sn8 - 8 = 137.1 - 258.4208 = - 121.3208
Sn9 - 9 = 157.4 - 260.1250 = - 102.7250
Step 5: Remove the t component from Snt + t by computing the average 12 each of the
seasonal for modelling (n1).
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6
-60.2083 -117.9542 -93.0083 -51.0917 98.8083 -38.1083
-126.0583 -125.7667 10.2917 119.3000 -22.6458 34.0417
-50.7917 -176.4583 101.4583 140.7333 -65.9375 -42.0917
-69.1583 -56.9125 62.9958 -103.5667 25.3000 -66.6250
-68.9333 -62.6208 -77.9708 -30.3750 -15.8167 25.4417
-75.4750 -187.0583 120.4333 144.3250 152.2208 -142.2750
-44.8667 -89.7500 73.0833 84.6417 7.1458 -206.8167
15.9000 -135.9333 -108.1667 238.5667 -38.7417 -107.2167
-122.9417 -180.0417 -89.5917 159.6833 80.3667 -130.9250
-66.9481 -125.8329 -0.0528 78.0241 24.5222 -74.9528
8
M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12
-13.6625 -121.3208 -102.7250 190.4042 134.0625 278.3167
-76.9333 -44.7083 67.8833 95.7917 89.9625 -58.6917
7.7000 -39.8417 -44.8750 143.4250 32.2833 -83.2333
60.7583 7.0167 -4.9833 8.6500 247.7250 -55.4083
-63.2250 38.1500 33.5833 160.6000 108.5333 -88.0167
-28.5667 92.3750 76.3167 -127.9583 103.2417 -35.4333
-167.7083 159.9250 -44.8417 79.8750 120.8083 -79.6583
37.9667 35.6500 -58.9083 2.8667 186.1750 -16.1333
-53.8417 -66.4250 11.0500 204.9750 127.7750 35.3917
-33.0569 6.7579 -7.5000 84.2921 127.8407 -11.4296
The last row show the values for averaged seasonal estimated. The sum of the averaged
seasonal estimated is 1.6639.
Step 6: Compute Snt through normalization for modelling (n1).
Normalization = 1.6639 / 12 = 0.1387
Seasonal Estimates, Snt = averaged seasonal estimated - Normalization
Sn1 = -66.9481 0.1387 = -67.0868 Sn7 = -33.0569 0.1387 = -33.1956
Sn2 = -125.8329 0.1387 = -125.9715 Sn8 = 6.7579 0.1387 = 6.6192
Sn3 = -0.0528 0.1387 = -0.1914 Sn9 = -7.500 0.1387 = -7.6387
Sn4 = 78.0241 0.1387 = 77.8854 Sn10 = 84.2921 0.1387 = 84.1535
Sn5 = 24.5222 0.1387 = 24.3836 Sn11 = 127.8407 0.1387 = 127.7021
Sn6 = -74.9528 0.1387 = -75.0914 Sn12 = -11.4296 0.1387 = -11.5683
Step 7: Deseasonalize (dt) the data by Yt minus Snt for modelling (n1).
d1 = 24.5 (-67.0806) = 91.5868
d2 = 99.3 (-125.9715) = 225.2715
d3 = 190.4 (-0.1914) = 190.5914
9
Step 8: Perform the time series regression to obtain the trend model (Trt) for modelling (n1).
Model Summary and Parameter Estimates

Dependent Variable: dt
Model Summary Parameter Estimates
Equation R Square F df1 df2 Sig. Constant b1 b2 b3
Linear .002 .224 1 118 .637 256.108 -.110
Logarithmic .003 .372 1 118 .543 229.287 5.280
Inverse .031 3.773 1 118 .054 255.845 -143.335
Quadratic .014 .811 2 117 .447 234.251 .965 -.009
Cubic .057 2.327 3 116 .078 183.524 5.893 -.110 .001
Compound .002 .247 1 118 .620 239.291 .999
S .034 4.114 1 118 .045 5.476 -.740
Growth .002 .247 1 118 .620 5.478 -.001
Exponential .002 .247 1 118 .620 239.291 -.001
Based on the above output from the SPSS software, the best model for the trend model
is cubic equation, Trt = 183.524 + 5.893 t 0.110 t2 + 0.001 t3. Since the R square value
is the highest among all the equation and the overall model is significant at alpha value
equal to 0.078 (P-value < ). Besides that, all the parameter for the cubic equation is
significant since the parameter have non-zero value. Thus, Trt are show as below
Tr1 = 183.524 + 5.893 (1) 0.110 (1)2 + 0.001 (1)3 = 189.3080
Tr2 = 183.524 + 5.893 (2) 0.110 (2)2 + 0.001 (2)3 = 194.8780
Tr3 = 183.524 + 5.893 (3) 0.110 (3)2 + 0.001 (3)3 = 200.2400
Step 9: Calculate the forecast value for modelling (n1).
= +
Y1 = -67.0868 + 189.3080 = 122.2212
Y2 = -125.9715 + 194.8780 = 68.9065
Y3 = -0.1914 + 200.2400 = 200.0486
10
Step 10: Compute the forecast error of modelling (n1) for MAD, MSE, RMSE, MAPE and
MPE.
1
= 120
=1| | = 220.0491
120
1 2
= 120 ( ) = 93877.5390
120 =1
= = 306.3944
1 | |
= 120
=1 = 1.5125
120
1 ( )
= 120
=1 = 1.4400
120
Step 11: Evaluation purpose that using evaluation (n2), no need recalculates all those value. Snt
for evaluation (n2) is defined because seasonal estimate is similar all the months.
Step 12: Deseasonalize (dt) the data by Yt minus Snt for evaluation (n2).
d121 = 166 (67.0806) = 233.0868
d122 = 59.8 (-125.9715) = 185.7715
d123 = 128.6 (-0.1914) = 128.7914
Step 13: The trend model (Trt) for n1 is used for evaluation (n2).
Tr121= 183.524 + 5.893 (121) 0.110 (121)2 + 0.001 (121)3 = 1057.6280
Tr122 = 183.524 + 5.893 (122) 0.110 (122)2 + 0.001 (122)3 = 1081.0780
Tr123 = 183.524 + 5.893 (123) 0.110 (123)2 + 0.001 (123)3 = 1105.0400
11
Step 14: Calculate the forecast value for evaluation (n2).
= +
Y1 = -67.0868 + 189.3080 = 122.2212
Y2 = -125.9715 + 194.8780 = 68.9065
Y3 = -0.1914 + 200.2400 = 200.0486
Step 15: Compute the forecast error of evaluation (n2) for MAD, MSE, RMSE, MAPE and
MPE.
1
= 12
=1| | = 972.1872
12
=
1
12
=1( )2 = 955174.5064

12
= = 977.3303
1 | |
= 12
=1 = 5.9352
12
1 ( )
= 12
=1 = 5.9352
12
12
3.2.2 Multiplicative Decomposition Method
Decomposition method is suite for all component of the data. Thus decomposition have been
used for this paper. In order to find the forecast values for multiplicative decomposition method,
there are several steps to be followed. The excel output for multiplicative decomposition
method will be presented at Appendix III.
Step 2: Compute the moving average for the Yt for modelling (n1).
1st MA = (24.5 + 99.3 + 190.4 + 217.9 + 199.8 + 227.2 + 235 + 137.1 + 157.4 + 450.4
+ 401.2 + 551.6) / 12
= 240.9833
2nd MA = (99.3 + 190.4 + 217.9 + 199.8 + 227.2 + 235 + 137.1 + 157.4 + 450.4 +
401.2 + 551.6 + 208.8) / 12
= 256.3417
3rd MA = (190.4 + 217.9 + 199.8 + 227.2 + 235 + 137.1 + 157.4 + 450.4 +
401.2 + 551.6 + 208.8 + 149.2) / 12
= 260.5000
Step 3: Compute centred moving average for moving average for modelling (n1).
CMA7 = (240.9833 + 256.3417) / 2
= 248.6625
CMA8 = (256.3417 + 260.5000) / 2
= 258.4208
CMA9 = (260.5000 + 259.7500) / 2
= 260.1250
Step 4: Compute the Snt t by divide the CMA with Yt for modelling (n1).
Sn7 7 = 235.0 / 248.6625 = 0.9451
Sn8 8 = 137.1 / 258.4208 = 0.5305
Sn9 9 = 157.4 / 260.1250 = 0.6051
13
Step 5: Remove the t component from Snt t by computing the average 12 each of the
seasonal for modelling (n1).
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12

0.7762 0.5585 0.6611 0.8141 1.3708 0.8459 0.6616 0.7985 1.3037 1.4125 1.3877 0.7438
0.4673 0.4824 1.0426 1.4920 0.9079 1.1381 1.0304 0.8457 0.8306 1.5216 1.1155 0.7036
0.8226 0.4056 1.3310 1.4577 0.7901 0.8712 1.1847 1.0210 0.9851 1.0269 1.7928 0.8217
0.7684 0.8022 1.2229 0.6330 1.0921 0.7434 0.7479 1.1563 1.1446 1.7182 1.4968 0.5903
0.6805 0.7098 0.6410 0.8527 0.9191 1.1270 0.8609 1.4554 1.3650 0.4406 1.4147 0.8614
0.6970 0.2591 1.4690 1.5432 1.5476 0.4876 0.3957 1.5642 0.8429 1.2858 1.4506 0.6887
0.8264 0.6526 1.2946 1.3536 1.0305 0.1274 1.1584 1.1503 0.7376 1.0130 1.8274 0.9288
1.0703 0.3722 0.4945 2.0620 0.8315 0.5318 0.7603 0.6931 1.0512 1.9577 1.5915 1.1606
0.4275 0.1573 0.6039 1.6903 1.3479 0.4493 0.9451 0.5305 0.6051 1.7323 1.5018 2.0184
0.7262 0.4888 0.9734 1.3221 1.0930 0.7024 0.8606 1.0239 0.9851 1.3454 1.5087 0.9464
The last row show the values for averaged seasonal estimated. The sum of the averaged
seasonal estimated is 11.9761.
Step 6: Compute Snt through normalization for modelling (n1).
Normalization = 12 / 11.9761 = 1.0020
Seasonal Estimates, Snt = averaged seasonal estimated x Normalization
Sn1 = (0.7262) (1.0020) = 0.7277 Sn7 = (0.8606) (1.0020) = 0.8623
Sn2 = (0.4888) (1.0020) = 0.4898 Sn8 = (1.0239) (1.0020) = 1.0259
Sn3 = (0.9734) (1.0020) = 0.9753 Sn9 = (0.9851) (1.0020) = 0.9871
Sn4 = (1.3221) (1.0020) = 1.3247 Sn10 = (1.3454) (1.0020) = 1.3481
Sn5 = (1.0930) (1.0020) = 1.0952 Sn11 = (1.5087) (1.0020) = 1.5118
Sn6 = (0.7024) (1.0020) = 0.7038 Sn12 = (0.9464) (1.0020) = 0.9483
14
Step 7: Deseasonalize (dt) the data by divided the Yt by Snt for modelling (n1).
d1 = (24.5 / 0.7277) = 33.6679
d2 = (99.3 / 0.4898) = 202.7258
d3 = (190.4 / 0.9753) = 195.2159
Step 8: Perform the time series regression to obtain the trend model (Trt) for modelling (n1).
Linear .008 .939 1 118 .335 263.598 -.239
Logarithmic .002 .182 1 118 .670 234.221 3.917
Inverse .043 5.325 1 118 .023 257.180 -179.185
Quadratic .032 1.934 2 117 .149 230.484 1.390 -.013
Cubic .079 3.313 3 116 .023 174.432 6.836 -.126 .001
Compound .008 .918 1 118 .340 245.219 .999
S .111 14.664 1 118 .000 5.495 -1.392
Growth .008 .918 1 118 .340 5.502 -.001
Exponential .008 .918 1 118 .340 245.219 -.001
Based on the above output from the SPSS software, the best model for the trend model
is cubic equation, Trt = 174.432 + 6.836 t 0.126 t2 + 0.001 t3. Since the R square value
is the highest among all the equation and the overall model is significant at alpha value
equal to 0.1 (P-value < ). Besides that, all the parameter for the cubic equation is
significant since the parameter have non zero value. Thus, Trt are show as below
Tr1 = 174.432 + 6.836 (1) 0.126 (1)2 + 0.001 (1)3 = 181.143
Tr2 = 174.432 + 6.836 (2) 0.126 (2)2 + 0.001 (2)3 = 187.608
Tr3 = 174.432 + 6.836 (3) 0.126 (3)2 + 0.001 (3)3 = 193.833
15
Step 9: Calculate the forecast value for modelling (n1).
Ft = Snt x Trt
F1 = (0.7277) (181.143) = 131.8171
F2 = (0.4898) (187.608) = 91.8949
F3 = (0.9753) (193.833) = 189.0512
MPE.
MAD = 193.1775
MSE = 74561.4436
RMSE = 273.0594
MAPE = 1.1852
MPE = -1.1141
Step 11: Evaluation purpose that using evaluation (n2), no need recalculate all those value. Snt
for evaluation (n2) is defined because seasonal estimates is similar all the months.
Step 12: Deseasonalize (dt) the data by divided the Yt by Snt for evaluation (n2).
d121 = (166 / 0.7277) = 228.1171
d122 = (59.8 / 0.4898) = 122.0846
d123 = (128.6 / 0.9753) = 131.8527
16
Step 13: The trend model (Trt) for n1 is used for evaluation (n2).
Tr121= 174.432 + 6.836 (121) 0.126 (121)2 + 0.001 (121)3 = 928.383
Tr122 = 174.432 + 6.836 (122) 0.126 (122)2 + 0.001 (122)3 = 948.888
Tr123 = 174.432 + 6.836 (123) 0.126 (123)2 + 0.001 (123)3 = 969.873
Step 14: Calculate the forecast value for evaluation (n2).
Ft = Snt x Trt
F121 = (0.7277) (928.383) = 675.5810
F122 = (0.4898) (948.888) = 464.7882
F123 = (0.9753) (969.873) = 945.9467
MPE.
MAD = 838.0480
MSE = 769956.6253
RMSE = 877.4717
MAPE = 4.5068
MPE = -4.5068
17
3.2.3 Naive Seasonal Trend
Nave seasonal trend for monthly data is chosen since this method is also suitable to forecast
the seasonal and trend data. Naive method is the easiest method compared to the other
forecasting methods. Thus, the step for calculate the forecast values is the simplest. The excel
output for the Naive seasonal trend is presented at Appendix IV.
Step 2: Forecast value for modelling (n1).
Ft+1 = Yt-11 + (Yt - Yt-12) / 12
F14 = 99.3 + (208.8 24.5) / 12 = 114.6583
F15 = 190.4 + (149.2 99.3) / 12 = 194.5583
F16 = 217.9 + (181.4 190.4) / 12 = 217.1500
Step 3: Compute the forecast error of modelling (n1) for MAD, MSE, RMSE, MAPE and MPE.
MAD = 97.9975
MSE = 14747.9298
RMSE = 121.4411
MAPE = 0.5007
MPE = -0.1904
18
Step 4: Forecast value for evaluation (n2).
Ft+1 = Yt-11 + (Yt - Yt-12) / 12
F121 = 91.8 + (339.6 255.8) / 12 = 98.7833
F122 = 33.6 + (166 91.8) / 12 = 39.7833
F123 = 136.3 + (59.8 33.6) / 12 = 138.7833
Step 5: Compute the forecast error of evaluation (n2) for MAD, MSE, RMSE, MAPE and MPE.
MAD = 94.3806
MSE = 16119.3252
RMSE = 126.9619
MAPE = 0.5209
MPE = -0.1764
19
3.2.4 Holt-Winter's Additive Exponential Smoothing
Holt (1957) and Winters (1960) extended Holts method to capture seasonality (Hyndman &
Athanasopoulos, n.d.). The Holt-Winters seasonal method comprises the forecast equation and
three smoothing equations one for the level , one for trend , and one for the seasonal
component denoted by , with smoothing parameter , and . is used to denote the period
of the seasonality which is for monthly data = 12.
The excel output of the Holt-Winters Addictive Exponential Smoothing, please refer to the
Appendix V.
Step 2: Input the initial value , and in range between 0 and 1.

Let = 0.1, = 0.2 and = 0.3.
Step 3: Compute the initial value of level 0 .

1 +2 +3 +4 ++1 +
0 = 12
24.5+99.3+190.4+217.9+199.8+227.2+235+137.1+157.4+450.4+401.2+551.6
0 = 12
= 240.9833
Step 4: Compute the initial value of trend 0 .

1
0 = 2 (+
=+1 =1 )
1
0 = 122 ((208.8 + 149.2 + 181.4 + 223.8 + 365.3 + 209.2 + 150.4 + 177.2 +
291.4 + 328 + 322 + 170.4) (24.5 + 99.3 + 190.4 + 217.9 + 199.8 +
227.2 + 235 + 137.1 + 157.4 + 450.4 + 401.2 + 551.6))
= 0.7965
20
Step 5: Compute the initial value of seasonal component 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , , 11 , 12 .
1 = 1 0 ,
2 = 2 0 ,
3 = 3 0 ,
,
12 = 12 0
m 1 2 3 4 5 6
Sm -216.4833 -141.6833 -50.5833 -23.0833 -41.1833 -13.7833
m 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sm -5.9833 -103.8833 -83.5833 209.4167 160.2167 310.6167
Step 6: Compute the Lt for modelling (n1).

= ( ) + (1 )(1 + 1 )
13 = 0.1(208.8 (216.4833)) + (1 0.1)(240.9833 + (0.79653))
= 254.4896
14 = 0.1(149.2 (141.6833)) + (1 0.1)(254.4896 + (0.79653))
= 256.5668
15 = 0.1(181.4 (50.5833)) + (1 0.1)(256.5668 + (0.79653))
= 253.9322
Step 7: Compute the bt for modelling (n1).

= ( 1 ) + (1 )1
13 = 0.2(254.4896 240.9833) + (1 0.2)(0.79653)
= 0.79653
14 = 0.2(256.5668 254.4896) + (1 0.2)(0.79653)
= 0.79653
15 = 0.2(253.9322 256.5668) + (1 0.2)(0.79653)
= 0.79653
21
Step 8: Compute the st for modelling (n1).
= ( ) + (1 )
13 = 0.3(208.8 254.4896) + (1 0.3)(216.4833)
= 130.3842
14 = 0.3(149.2 256.5668) + (1 0.3)(141.6833)
= 124.3840
15 = 0.3(181.4 253.9322) + (1 0.3)(50.5833)
= 61.6480
Step 9: Compute the forecast value for modelling (n1).

+ = + + +
12+1 = 240.9833 + (0.79653 1) + (216.4833) = 23.7035
13+1 = 254.4896 + (0.79653 1) + (141.6833) = 112.0097
14+1 = 256.5668 + (0.79653 1) + (50.5833) = 205.1869
Step 10: Used the solver in Excel to determine the most appropriate value of , and which
can get minimum value of MSE.
Alpha = 0.07727188
Beta = 0.00000001
Gamma = 0.00000001
MPE.
MAD = 84.9590
MSE = 11741.9996
RMSE = 108.3605
MAPE = 0.4572
MPE = -0.1582
22
Step 12: Compute the forecast value for evaluation (n2).
+ = + + +
120+1 = 218.8420 + (67.5005 1) + 202.8120 = 160.3983
120+2 = 218.8420 + (67.5005 2) + 88.4888 = 80.7593
120+3 = 218.8420 + (67.5005 3) + 188.2419 = 186.2641
MPE.
MAD = 72.0808
MSE = 9316.7552
RMSE = 96.5233
MAPE = 0.4080
MPE = -0.2389
23
3.2.5 Holt-Winter's Multiplicative Exponential Smoothing
The Holt-Winters seasonal method comprises the forecast equation and three smoothing
equations one for the level , one for trend , and one for the seasonal component denoted
by , with smoothing parameter , and . is used to denote the period of the seasonality
which is for monthly data = 12.
The excel output of the Holt-Winters Multiplicative Exponential Smoothing, please refer to
the Appendix VI.
Step 2: Input the initial value , and in range between 0 and 1.

Let = 0.1, = 0.2 and = 0.3.
Step 3: Compute the initial value of level 0 .

1 +2 +3 +4 ++1 +
0 = 12
24.5+99.3+190.4+217.9+199.8+227.2+235+137.1+157.4+450.4+401.2+551.6
0 = 12
= 240.9833
Step 4: Compute the initial value of trend 0 .

1
0 = 2 (+
=+1 =1 )
1
0 = 122 ((208.8 + 149.2 + 181.4 + 223.8 + 365.3 + 209.2 + 150.4 + 177.2 +
291.4 + 328 + 322 + 170.4) (24.5 + 99.3 + 190.4 + 217.9 + 199.8 +
227.2 + 235 + 137.1 + 157.4 + 450.4 + 401.2 + 551.6))
= 0.7965
24
Step 5: Compute the initial value of seasonal component 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , , 11 , 12 .
1 = 1 /0 ,
2 = 2 /0 ,
3 = 3 /0 ,
,
12 = 12 /0
m 1 2 3 4 5 6
Sm 0.1017 0.4121 0.7901 0.9042 0.8291 0.9428
m 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sm 0.9752 0.5689 0.6532 1.8690 1.6648 2.2890
Step 6: Compute the Lt for modelling (n1).

= ( / ) + (1 )(1 + 1 )
13 = 0.1(208.8/0.1017) + (1 0.1)(240.9833 + (0.7965))
= 421.5449
14 = 0.1(149.2/0.4121) + (1 0.1)(421.5449 + 35.4751)
= 447.5262
15 = 0.1(181.4/0.7901) + (1 0.1)(447.5262 + 33.5763)
= 445.9515
Step 7: Compute the bt for modelling (n1).

= ( 1 ) + (1 )1
13 = 0.2(421.5449 240.9833) + (1 0.2)(0.7965)
= 35.4751
14 = 0.2(447.5262 421.5449) + (1 0.2)(35.4751)
= 33.5763
15 = 0.2(455.9515 447.5262) + (1 0.2)(33.5763)
= 28.5461
25
Step 8: Compute the st for modelling (n1).
= ( / ) + (1 )
13 = 0.3(208.8/421.5449) + (1 0.3)(0.1017)
= 0.2198
14 = 0.3(149.2/447.5262) + (1 0.3)(0.4121)
= 0.3885
15 = 0.3(181.4/455.9515) + (1 0.3)(0.7901)
= 0.6724
Step 9: Compute the forecast value for modelling (n1).

+ = ( + ) +
12+1 = [240.9833 + (35.4751 1)](0.1017) = 24.4190
13+1 = [421.5449 + (33.5763 1)](0.4121) = 188.3205
14+1 = [455.9515 + (28.5461 1)](0.7901) = 380.1173
Step 10: Used the solver in Excel to determine the most appropriate value of , and which
can get minimum value of MSE.
Alpha = 0.0001001486
Beta = 0.9999999999
Gamma = 0.433032
MPE.
MAD = 83.8557
MSE = 11548.5111
RMSE = 107.4640
MAPE = 0.4578
MPE = -0.1606
26
Step 12: Compute the forecast value for evaluation (n2).
+ = ( + )+
120+1 = [192.4725 + (0.3942 1)]0.7848 = 160.3983
120+2 = [192.4725 + (0.3942 2)]0.3858 = 80.7593
120+3 = [192.4725 + (0.3942 3)]0.9010 = 186.2641
MPE.
MAD = 73.0723
MSE = 8202.4436
RMSE = 90.5673
MAPE = 0.3860
MPE = -0.1476
27
3.3 The Best Model
The best model is determined among the models, that have chosen which suitable to
the data series, based on the forecast error for each model. Future forecast has been made to
forecast the monthly rainfall amount in Cameron Highlands during the year of 2016.
3.3.1 Models Comparison
Comparison among each model has been done in order to choose the best model to
forecast this data series. Comparison was first done among the models in a type of forecasting
method.
In Decomposition method, the forecast error of modelling (n1) for MSE in Additive and
Multiplicative approach are 93877.5390 and 74661.4436 respectively while the forecast error
of evaluation (n2) for MSE in Additive and Multiplicative approach are 955174.5064 and
769956.6253 respectively. In both modelling and evaluation, Multiplicative approach has the
smallest MSE. Therefore, Decomposition with Multiplicative approach is the best model under
the Decomposition method.
In Holt-Winters method, the forecast error of modelling (n1) for MSE in Additive and
Multiplicative approach are 11741.9999 and 11548.5111 respectively while the forecast error
of evaluation (n2) for MSE in Additive and Multiplicative approach are 9316.8099 and
8202.4436 respectively. In both modelling and evaluation, Multiplicative approach has the
smallest MSE. Therefore, Holt-Winters with Multiplicative approach is the best model under
the Holt-Winters method.
Further comparisons are made between each of the forecasting method.
Model Evaluate
Decomposition Nave Trend and Holt's Winter - Decomposition Nave Trend Holt's Winter -
- Multiplicative Seasonal Multiplicative - Multiplicative and Seasonal Multiplicative
MAD 193.1775 97.9975 83.8557 838.0480 94.3806 73.0723
MSE 74561.4436 14747.9298 11548.5111 769956.6253 16119.3252 8202.4436
RMSE 273.0594 121.4411 107.4640 877.4717 126.9619 90.5673
MAPE 1.1852 0.5007 0.4578 4.5068 0.5209 0.3860
MPE -1.1141 -0.1904 -0.1606 -4.5068 -0.1764 -0.1476
The table above shown the forecast error of modelling and evaluation for MAD, MSE,
RMSE, MAPE and MPE. In both modelling and evaluation, Holt-Winters with Multiplicative
28
approach has the smallest forecasting errors and is chosen as the best forecasting model for this
data series of monthly rainfall in Cameron Highlands.
3.3.2 Future Forecast
Based on the existing data series with the use of the Holt-Winters with Multiplicative
approach method, the monthly rainfall amount in Cameron Highland during the year of 2016
can be predicted. The excel output of the Best Model Forecast, please refer to the APPENDIX
VII.
The forecast value can be computed with the use of the formula:
+ = ( + )+
132+1 = [187.5245 + (0.3911 1)]0.8222 = 153.8581
132+2 = [187.5245 + (0.3911 2)]0.3663 = 153.5365
132+3 = [187.5245 + (0.3911 3)]0.8249 = 68.2642
132+4 = [187.5245 + (0.3911 4)]1.5263 = 153.3990
132+5 = [187.5245 + (0.3911 5)]1.5284 = 283.2260
132+6 = [187.5245 + (0.3911 6)]0.6032 = 283.0173
132+7 = [187.5245 + (0.3911 7)]0.9116 = 111.4714
132+8 = [187.5245 + (0.3911 8)]1.3062 = 168.1035
132+9 = [187.5245 + (0.3911 9)]1.4047 = 240.3382
132+10 = [187.5245 + (0.3911 10)]1.9190 = 257.9273
132+11 = [187.5245 + (0.3911 11)]2.0434 = 351.6060
132+12 = [187.5245 + (0.3911 12)]1.0621 = 373.5976
29
CHAPTER 4
CONCLUSION
There are variety of forecasting methods can be used to forecast. The suitable methods
can be chosen when the characteristics of the data series is pre-determined and the best method
can be known when the method has the smallest forecasting error. In this paper, the data series
of the rainfall amount in Cameron Highlands contain both trend and seasonality components.
The suitable methods included the Decomposition with Additive or Multiplicative approach,
Naive Trend Seasonal and Holt-Winters with Additive and Multiplicative approach. The best
model that has chosen is Holt-Winters with Multiplicative approach. Future rainfall amount
in Cameron Highlands is forecasted. With this forecasted value, it able to help in many sectors.
For example, in agriculture, an accurate forecast in advance can provide a distinct reduction in
agricultural vulnerability to climate variations and the ability to take advantage of favourable
future conditions. It could help in increase the yield by 20-30 percent (Meehl, Covey, Latif,
McAvaney, & Stouffer, 2003). With the increase in yield, it could reduce food insecurity.
30
REFERENCES
Clark, D. (2011, December 15). How Will Climate Change Affect Rainfall? Retrieved from
The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/dec/15/climate-
change-rainfall
Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (n.d.). 7.5 Holt-Winters Seasonal Method. Retrieved
from Texts Online, Open-Access Textbooks: https://www.otexts.org/fpp/7/5
Meehl, G. A., Covey, C., Latif, M., McAvaney, B., & Stouffer, R. J. (2003). New rainfall
prediction method directly benefits agricultural and flood dorecasting in South Asia.
7th game international science panel meeting (pp. 10-11). Tokyo: Gewex. Retrieved
May 18, 2017, from
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/meehl0301.pdf
Ogburn, S. P. (2013, November 12). Climate Change Is Altering Rainfall Patterns

Worldwide. Retrieved from Scientific American:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-is-altering-rainfall-
patterns-worldwide/
31
APPENDIX I
The monthly rainfall amount of Cameron Highland in terms of millimetre from years 2005 to 2015.
Month 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1 24.5 208.8 110.6 235.6 229.4 146.8 173.6 213.6 242 91.8 166
2 99.3 149.2 117.2 120.4 230.8 153.2 65.4 168.6 80.6 33.6 59.8
3 190.4 181.4 252 408 345.6 139.2 377.2 321.2 105.8 136.6 128.6
4 217.9 223.8 361.8 448.2 178.6 175.8 410 324 463.2 391 187.6
5 199.8 365.3 223.2 248.2 300 179.6 430.2 241.8 191.2 311.4 341.4
6 227.2 209.2 280.6 284.8 193 225.8 135.4 30.2 121.8 106.8 121.8
7 235 150.4 260.6 389.8 187.6 176.8 109.8 277.6 170.8 49.8 239
8 137.1 177.2 218.4 340.4 282.3 295.2 443.4 272.8 150 244.6 270.2
9 157.4 291.4 220 330.4 265.9 285.4 240.6 165.6 226.8 433.4 224.4
10 450.4 328 418.4 330.2 384.2 100.8 359.4 224.2 419 335.4 432.4
11 401.2 322 311.9 560.2 327 352.2 388.9 411.2 343.8 420.6 405.6
12 551.6 170.4 197.6 255.4 126.8 220.2 176.2 210.6 255.8 339.6 111.8
32
APPENDIX II
Decompistion - Additive
Year Month t Y MA CMA Snt + et Snt dt Trt Forecast e e e^2 e/ Y e/ Y

2005 1 1 24.5 -67.0868 91.5868 189.3080 122.2212 -97.7212 97.7212 9549.4318 3.9886 -3.9886
2 2 99.3 -125.9715 225.2715 194.8780 68.9065 30.3935 30.3935 923.7665 0.3061 0.3061
3 3 190.4 -0.1914 190.5914 200.2400 200.0486 -9.6486 9.6486 93.0948 0.0507 -0.0507
4 4 217.9 77.8854 140.0146 205.4000 283.2854 -65.3854 65.3854 4275.2527 0.3001 -0.3001
5 5 199.8 24.3836 175.4164 210.3640 234.7476 -34.9476 34.9476 1221.3323 0.1749 -0.1749
6 6 227.2 -75.0914 302.2914 215.1380 140.0466 87.1534 87.1534 7595.7213 0.3836 0.3836
7 7 235 240.9833 248.6625 -13.6625 -33.1956 268.1956 219.7280 186.5324 48.4676 48.4676 2349.1084 0.2062 0.2062
8 8 137.1 256.3417 258.4208 -121.3208 6.6192 130.4808 224.1400 230.7592 -93.6592 93.6592 8772.0482 0.6831 -0.6831
9 9 157.4 260.5000 260.1250 -102.7250 -7.6387 165.0387 228.3800 220.7413 -63.3413 63.3413 4012.1257 0.4024 -0.4024
10 10 450.4 259.7500 259.9958 190.4042 84.1535 366.2465 232.4540 316.6075 133.7925 133.7925 17900.4405 0.2971 0.2971
11 11 401.2 260.2417 267.1375 134.0625 127.7021 273.4979 236.3680 364.0701 37.1299 37.1299 1378.6307 0.0925 0.0925
12 12 551.6 274.0333 273.2833 278.3167 -11.5683 563.1683 240.1280 228.5597 323.0403 323.0403 104355.0270 0.5856 0.5856
2006 1 13 208.8 272.5333 269.0083 -60.2083 -67.0868 275.8868 243.7400 176.6532 32.1468 32.1468 1033.4171 0.1540 0.1540
2 14 149.2 265.4833 267.1542 -117.9542 -125.9715 275.1715 247.2100 121.2385 27.9615 27.9615 781.8470 0.1874 0.1874
3 15 181.4 268.8250 274.4083 -93.0083 -0.1914 181.5914 250.5440 250.3526 -68.9526 68.9526 4754.4562 0.3801 -0.3801
4 16 223.8 279.9917 274.8917 -51.0917 77.8854 145.9146 253.7480 331.6334 -107.8334 107.8334 11628.0458 0.4818 -0.4818
5 17 365.3 269.7917 266.4917 98.8083 24.3836 340.9164 256.8280 281.2116 84.0884 84.0884 7070.8649 0.2302 0.2302
6 18 209.2 263.1917 247.3083 -38.1083 -75.0914 284.2914 259.7900 184.6986 24.5014 24.5014 600.3203 0.1171 0.1171
7 19 150.4 231.4250 227.3333 -76.9333 -33.1956 183.5956 262.6400 229.4444 -79.0444 79.0444 6248.0169 0.5256 -0.5256
8 20 177.2 223.2417 221.9083 -44.7083 6.6192 170.5808 265.3840 272.0032 -94.8032 94.8032 8987.6492 0.5350 -0.5350
9 21 291.4 220.5750 223.5167 67.8833 -7.6387 299.0387 268.0280 260.3893 31.0107 31.0107 961.6609 0.1064 0.1064
10 22 328 226.4583 232.2083 95.7917 84.1535 243.8465 270.5780 354.7315 -26.7315 26.7315 714.5716 0.0815 -0.0815
11 23 322 237.9583 232.0375 89.9625 127.7021 194.2979 273.0400 400.7421 -78.7421 78.7421 6200.3157 0.2445 -0.2445
12 24 170.4 226.1167 229.0917 -58.6917 -11.5683 181.9683 275.4200 263.8517 -93.4517 93.4517 8733.2227 0.5484 -0.5484
2007 1 25 110.6 232.0667 236.6583 -126.0583 -67.0868 177.6868 277.7240 210.6372 -100.0372 100.0372 10007.4403 0.9045 -0.9045
2 26 117.2 241.2500 242.9667 -125.7667 -125.9715 243.1715 279.9580 153.9865 -36.7865 36.7865 1353.2445 0.3139 -0.3139
3 27 252 244.6833 241.7083 10.2917 -0.1914 252.1914 282.1280 281.9366 -29.9366 29.9366 896.1979 0.1188 -0.1188
4 28 361.8 238.7333 242.5000 119.3000 77.8854 283.9146 284.2400 362.1254 -0.3254 0.3254 0.1059 0.0009 -0.0009
5 29 223.2 246.2667 245.8458 -22.6458 24.3836 198.8164 286.3000 310.6836 -87.4836 87.4836 7653.3741 0.3920 -0.3920
6 30 280.6 245.4250 246.5583 34.0417 -75.0914 355.6914 288.3140 213.2226 67.3774 67.3774 4539.7188 0.2401 0.2401
7 31 260.6 247.6917 252.9000 7.7000 -33.1956 293.7956 290.2880 257.0924 3.5076 3.5076 12.3033 0.0135 0.0135
8 32 218.4 258.1083 258.2417 -39.8417 6.6192 211.7808 292.2280 298.8472 -80.4472 80.4472 6471.7541 0.3683 -0.3683
9 33 220 258.3750 264.8750 -44.8750 -7.6387 227.6387 294.1400 286.5013 -66.5013 66.5013 4422.4286 0.3023 -0.3023
10 34 418.4 271.3750 274.9750 143.4250 84.1535 334.2465 296.0300 380.1835 38.2165 38.2165 1460.5030 0.0913 0.0913
11 35 311.9 278.5750 279.6167 32.2833 127.7021 184.1979 297.9040 425.6061 -113.7061 113.7061 12929.0734 0.3646 -0.3646
12 36 197.6 280.6583 280.8333 -83.2333 -11.5683 209.1683 299.7680 288.1997 -90.5997 90.5997 8208.3080 0.4585 -0.4585
2008 1 37 235.6 281.0083 286.3917 -50.7917 -67.0868 302.6868 301.6280 234.5412 1.0588 1.0588 1.1211 0.0045 0.0045
2 38 120.4 291.7750 296.8583 -176.4583 -125.9715 246.3715 303.4900 177.5185 -57.1185 57.1185 3262.5199 0.4744 -0.4744
3 39 408 301.9417 306.5417 101.4583 -0.1914 408.1914 305.3600 305.1686 102.8314 102.8314 10574.3041 0.2520 0.2520
4 40 448.2 311.1417 307.4667 140.7333 77.8854 370.3146 307.2440 385.1294 63.0706 63.0706 3977.8985 0.1407 0.1407
5 41 248.2 303.7917 314.1375 -65.9375 24.3836 223.8164 309.1480 333.5316 -85.3316 85.3316 7281.4760 0.3438 -0.3438
6 42 284.8 324.4833 326.8917 -42.0917 -75.0914 359.8914 311.0780 235.9866 48.8134 48.8134 2382.7515 0.1714 0.1714
7 43 389.8 329.3000 329.0417 60.7583 -33.1956 422.9956 313.0400 279.8444 109.9556 109.9556 12090.2344 0.2821 0.2821
8 44 340.4 328.7833 333.3833 7.0167 6.6192 333.7808 315.0400 321.6592 18.7408 18.7408 351.2171 0.0551 0.0551
9 45 330.4 337.9833 335.3833 -4.9833 -7.6387 338.0387 317.0840 309.4453 20.9547 20.9547 439.0977 0.0634 0.0634
10 46 330.2 332.7833 321.5500 8.6500 84.1535 246.0465 319.1780 403.3315 -73.1315 73.1315 5348.2122 0.2215 -0.2215
11 47 560.2 310.3167 312.4750 247.7250 127.7021 432.4979 321.3280 449.0301 111.1699 111.1699 12358.7504 0.1984 0.1984
12 48 255.4 314.6333 310.8083 -55.4083 -11.5683 266.9683 323.5400 311.9717 -56.5717 56.5717 3200.3587 0.2215 -0.2215
2009 1 49 229.4 306.9833 298.5583 -69.1583 -67.0868 296.4868 325.8200 258.7332 -29.3332 29.3332 860.4363 0.1279 -0.1279
2 50 230.8 290.1333 287.7125 -56.9125 -125.9715 356.7715 328.1740 202.2025 28.5975 28.5975 817.8186 0.1239 0.1239
3 51 345.6 285.2917 282.6042 62.9958 -0.1914 345.7914 330.6080 330.4166 15.1834 15.1834 230.5367 0.0439 0.0439
4 52 178.6 279.9167 282.1667 -103.5667 77.8854 100.7146 333.1280 411.0134 -232.4134 232.4134 54015.9962 1.3013 -1.3013
5 53 300 284.4167 274.7000 25.3000 24.3836 275.6164 335.7400 360.1236 -60.1236 60.1236 3614.8430 0.2004 -0.2004
6 54 193 264.9833 259.6250 -66.6250 -75.0914 268.0914 338.4500 263.3586 -70.3586 70.3586 4950.3276 0.3646 -0.3646
7 55 187.6 254.2667 250.8250 -63.2250 -33.1956 220.7956 341.2640 308.0684 -120.4684 120.4684 14512.6350 0.6422 -0.6422
8 56 282.3 247.3833 244.1500 38.1500 6.6192 275.6808 344.1880 350.8072 -68.5072 68.5072 4693.2382 0.2427 -0.2427
9 57 265.9 240.9167 232.3167 33.5833 -7.6387 273.5387 347.2280 339.5893 -73.6893 73.6893 5430.1192 0.2771 -0.2771
10 58 384.2 223.7167 223.6000 160.6000 84.1535 300.0465 350.3900 434.5435 -50.3435 50.3435 2534.4652 0.1310 -0.1310
11 59 327 223.4833 218.4667 108.5333 127.7021 199.2979 353.6800 481.3821 -154.3821 154.3821 23833.8277 0.4721 -0.4721
12 60 126.8 213.4500 214.8167 -88.0167 -11.5683 138.3683 357.1040 345.5357 -218.7357 218.7357 47845.3121 1.7250 -1.7250
2010 1 61 146.8 216.1833 215.7333 -68.9333 -67.0868 213.8868 360.6680 293.5812 -146.7812 146.7812 21544.7190 0.9999 -0.9999
2 62 153.2 215.2833 215.8208 -62.6208 -125.9715 279.1715 364.3780 238.4065 -85.2065 85.2065 7260.1429 0.5562 -0.5562
3 63 139.2 216.3583 217.1708 -77.9708 -0.1914 139.3914 368.2400 368.0486 -228.8486 228.8486 52371.6656 1.6440 -1.6440
4 64 175.8 217.9833 206.1750 -30.3750 77.8854 97.9146 372.2600 450.1454 -274.3454 274.3454 75265.4076 1.5606 -1.5606
5 65 179.6 194.3667 195.4167 -15.8167 24.3836 155.2164 376.4440 400.8276 -221.2276 221.2276 48941.6354 1.2318 -1.2318
6 66 225.8 196.4667 200.3583 25.4417 -75.0914 300.8914 380.7980 305.7066 -79.9066 79.9066 6385.0591 0.3539 -0.3539
7 67 176.8 204.2500 205.3667 -28.5667 -33.1956 209.9956 385.3280 352.1324 -175.3324 175.3324 30741.4498 0.9917 -0.9917
8 68 295.2 206.4833 202.8250 92.3750 6.6192 288.5808 390.0400 396.6592 -101.4592 101.4592 10293.9719 0.3437 -0.3437
9 69 285.4 199.1667 209.0833 76.3167 -7.6387 293.0387 394.9400 387.3013 -101.9013 101.9013 10383.8836 0.3570 -0.3570
10 70 100.8 219.0000 228.7583 -127.9583 84.1535 16.6465 400.0340 484.1875 -383.3875 383.3875 146985.9539 3.8034 -3.8034
11 71 352.2 238.5167 248.9583 103.2417 127.7021 224.4979 405.3280 533.0301 -180.8301 180.8301 32699.5190 0.5134 -0.5134
12 72 220.2 259.4000 255.6333 -35.4333 -11.5683 231.7683 410.8280 399.2597 -179.0597 179.0597 32062.3808 0.8132 -0.8132
33
APPENDIX II
2011 1 73 173.6 251.8667 249.0750 -75.4750 -67.0868 240.6868 416.5400 349.4532 -175.8532 175.8532 30924.3460 1.0130 -1.0130
2 74 65.4 246.2833 252.4583 -187.0583 -125.9715 191.3715 422.4700 296.4985 -231.0985 231.0985 53406.5039 3.5336 -3.5336
3 75 377.2 258.6333 256.7667 120.4333 -0.1914 377.3914 428.6240 428.4326 -51.2326 51.2326 2624.7757 0.1358 -0.1358
4 76 410 254.9000 265.6750 144.3250 77.8854 332.1146 435.0080 512.8934 -102.8934 102.8934 10587.0552 0.2510 -0.2510
5 77 430.2 276.4500 277.9792 152.2208 24.3836 405.8164 441.6280 466.0116 -35.8116 35.8116 1282.4682 0.0832 -0.0832
6 78 135.4 279.5083 277.6750 -142.2750 -75.0914 210.4914 448.4900 373.3986 -237.9986 237.9986 56643.3169 1.7577 -1.7577
7 79 109.8 275.8417 277.5083 -167.7083 -33.1956 142.9956 455.6000 422.4044 -312.6044 312.6044 97721.5097 2.8470 -2.8470
8 80 443.4 279.1750 283.4750 159.9250 6.6192 436.7808 462.9640 469.5832 -26.1832 26.1832 685.5606 0.0591 -0.0591
9 81 240.6 287.7750 285.4417 -44.8417 -7.6387 248.2387 470.5880 462.9493 -222.3493 222.3493 49439.2302 0.9241 -0.9241
10 82 359.4 283.1083 279.5250 79.8750 84.1535 275.2465 478.4780 562.6315 -203.2315 203.2315 41303.0313 0.5655 -0.5655
11 83 388.9 275.9417 268.0917 120.8083 127.7021 261.1979 486.6400 614.3421 -225.4421 225.4421 50824.1329 0.5797 -0.5797
12 84 176.2 260.2417 255.8583 -79.6583 -11.5683 187.7683 495.0800 483.5117 -307.3117 307.3117 94440.4889 1.7441 -1.7441
2012 1 85 213.6 251.4750 258.4667 -44.8667 -67.0868 280.6868 503.8040 436.7172 -223.1172 223.1172 49781.2825 1.0446 -1.0446
2 86 168.6 265.4583 258.3500 -89.7500 -125.9715 294.5715 512.8180 386.8465 -218.2465 218.2465 47631.5226 1.2945 -1.2945
3 87 321.2 251.2417 248.1167 73.0833 -0.1914 321.3914 522.1280 521.9366 -200.7366 200.7366 40295.1685 0.6250 -0.6250
4 88 324 244.9917 239.3583 84.6417 77.8854 246.1146 531.7400 609.6254 -285.6254 285.6254 81581.8786 0.8816 -0.8816
5 89 241.8 233.7250 234.6542 7.1458 24.3836 217.4164 541.6600 566.0436 -324.2436 324.2436 105133.8893 1.3410 -1.3410
6 90 30.2 235.5833 237.0167 -206.8167 -75.0914 105.2914 551.8940 476.8026 -446.6026 446.6026 199453.8509 14.7882 -14.7882
7 91 277.6 238.4500 239.6333 37.9667 -33.1956 310.7956 562.4480 529.2524 -251.6524 251.6524 63328.9295 0.9065 -0.9065
8 92 272.8 240.8167 237.1500 35.6500 6.6192 266.1808 573.3280 579.9472 -307.1472 307.1472 94339.4104 1.1259 -1.1259
9 93 165.6 233.4833 224.5083 -58.9083 -7.6387 173.2387 584.5400 576.9013 -411.3013 411.3013 169168.7944 2.4837 -2.4837
10 94 224.2 215.5333 221.3333 2.8667 84.1535 140.0465 596.0900 680.2435 -456.0435 456.0435 207975.6486 2.0341 -2.0341
11 95 411.2 227.1333 225.0250 186.1750 127.7021 283.4979 607.9840 735.6861 -324.4861 324.4861 105291.2183 0.7891 -0.7891
12 96 210.6 222.9167 226.7333 -16.1333 -11.5683 222.1683 620.2280 608.6597 -398.0597 398.0597 158451.5351 1.8901 -1.8901
2013 1 97 242 230.5500 226.1000 15.9000 -67.0868 309.0868 632.8280 565.7412 -323.7412 323.7412 104808.3610 1.3378 -1.3378
2 98 80.6 221.6500 216.5333 -135.9333 -125.9715 206.5715 645.7900 519.8185 -439.2185 439.2185 192912.8663 5.4494 -5.4494
3 99 105.8 211.4167 213.9667 -108.1667 -0.1914 105.9914 659.1200 658.9286 -553.1286 553.1286 305951.2092 5.2281 -5.2281
4 100 463.2 216.5167 224.6333 238.5667 77.8854 385.3146 672.8240 750.7094 -287.5094 287.5094 82661.6647 0.6207 -0.6207
5 101 191.2 232.7500 229.9417 -38.7417 24.3836 166.8164 686.9080 711.2916 -520.0916 520.0916 270495.2358 2.7201 -2.7201
6 102 121.8 227.1333 229.0167 -107.2167 -75.0914 196.8914 701.3780 626.2866 -504.4866 504.4866 254506.6941 4.1419 -4.1419
7 103 170.8 230.9000 224.6417 -53.8417 -33.1956 203.9956 716.2400 683.0444 -512.2444 512.2444 262394.3234 2.9991 -2.9991
8 104 150 218.3833 216.4250 -66.4250 6.6192 143.3808 731.5000 738.1192 -588.1192 588.1192 345884.2087 3.9208 -3.9208
9 105 226.8 214.4667 215.7500 11.0500 -7.6387 234.4387 747.1640 739.5253 -512.7253 512.7253 262887.2769 2.2607 -2.2607
10 106 419 217.0333 214.0250 204.9750 84.1535 334.8465 763.2380 847.3915 -428.3915 428.3915 183519.2535 1.0224 -1.0224
11 107 343.8 211.0167 216.0250 127.7750 127.7021 216.0979 779.7280 907.4301 -563.6301 563.6301 317678.8708 1.6394 -1.6394
12 108 255.8 221.0333 220.4083 35.3917 -11.5683 267.3683 796.6400 785.0717 -529.2717 529.2717 280128.5461 2.0691 -2.0691
2014 1 109 91.8 219.7833 214.7417 -122.9417 -67.0868 158.8868 813.9800 746.8932 -655.0932 655.0932 429147.0934 7.1361 -7.1361
2 110 33.6 209.7000 213.6417 -180.0417 -125.9715 159.5715 831.7540 705.7825 -672.1825 672.1825 451829.2760 20.0054 -20.0054
3 111 136.6 217.5833 226.1917 -89.5917 -0.1914 136.7914 849.9680 849.7766 -713.1766 713.1766 508620.8126 5.2209 -5.2209
4 112 391 234.8000 231.3167 159.6833 77.8854 313.1146 868.6280 946.5134 -555.5134 555.5134 308595.1561 1.4208 -1.4208
5 113 311.4 227.8333 231.0333 80.3667 24.3836 287.0164 887.7400 912.1236 -600.7236 600.7236 360868.8013 1.9291 -1.9291
6 114 106.8 234.2333 237.7250 -130.9250 -75.0914 181.8914 907.3100 832.2186 -725.4186 725.4186 526232.0942 6.7923 -6.7923
7 115 49.8 241.2167 -33.1956 82.9956 927.3440 894.1484 -844.3484 844.3484 712924.2175 16.9548 -16.9548
8 116 244.6 6.6192 237.9808 947.8480 954.4672 -709.8672 709.8672 503911.4600 2.9022 -2.9022
9 117 433.4 -7.6387 441.0387 968.8280 961.1893 -527.7893 527.7893 278561.5902 1.2178 -1.2178
10 118 335.4 84.1535 251.2465 990.2900 1074.4435 -739.0435 739.0435 546185.2538 2.2035 -2.2035
11 119 420.6 127.7021 292.8979 1012.2400 1139.9421 -719.3421 719.3421 517453.0329 1.7103 -1.7103
12 120 339.6 -11.5683 351.1683 1034.6840 1023.1157 -683.5157 683.5157 467193.7299 2.0127 -2.0127
Evaluation
2015 1 121 166 -67.0868 1057.6280 990.5412 -824.5412 824.5412 679868.1813 4.9671 -4.9671
2 122 59.8 -125.9715 1081.0780 955.1065 -895.3065 895.3065 801573.6792 14.9717 -14.9717
3 123 128.6 -0.1914 1105.0400 1104.8486 -976.2486 976.2486 953061.2603 7.5914 -7.5914
4 124 187.6 77.8854 1129.5200 1207.4054 -1019.8054 1019.8054 1040003.0879 5.4361 -5.4361
5 125 341.4 24.3836 1154.5240 1178.9076 -837.5076 837.5076 701418.9211 2.4532 -2.4532
6 126 121.8 -75.0914 1180.0580 1104.9666 -983.1666 983.1666 966616.4942 8.0720 -8.0720
7 127 239 -33.1956 1206.1280 1172.9324 -933.9324 933.9324 872229.7243 3.9077 -3.9077
8 128 270.2 6.6192 1232.7400 1239.3592 -969.1592 969.1592 939269.5801 3.5868 -3.5868
9 129 224.4 -7.6387 1259.9000 1252.2613 -1027.8613 1027.8613 1056498.9396 4.5805 -4.5805
10 130 432.4 84.1535 1287.6140 1371.7675 -939.3675 939.3675 882411.2479 2.1725 -2.1725
11 131 405.6 127.7021 1315.8880 1443.5901 -1037.9901 1037.9901 1077423.4131 2.5591 -2.5591
12 132 111.8 -11.5683 1344.7280 1333.1597 -1221.3597 1221.3597 1491719.5484 10.9245 -10.9245
34
APPENDIX II
Month Average Final Estimator

1 -122.9417 -60.2083 -126.0583 -50.7917 -69.1583 -68.9333 -75.4750 -44.8667 15.9000 -66.9481 -67.0868
2 -180.0417 -117.9542 -125.7667 -176.4583 -56.9125 -62.6208 -187.0583 -89.7500 -135.9333 -125.8329 -125.9715
3 -89.5917 -93.0083 10.2917 101.4583 62.9958 -77.9708 120.4333 73.0833 -108.1667 -0.0528 -0.1914
4 159.6833 -51.0917 119.3000 140.7333 -103.5667 -30.3750 144.3250 84.6417 238.5667 78.0241 77.8854
5 80.3667 98.8083 -22.6458 -65.9375 25.3000 -15.8167 152.2208 7.1458 -38.7417 24.5222 24.3836
6 -130.9250 -38.1083 34.0417 -42.0917 -66.6250 25.4417 -142.2750 -206.8167 -107.2167 -74.9528 -75.0914
7 -13.6625 -76.9333 7.7000 60.7583 -63.2250 -28.5667 -167.7083 37.9667 -53.8417 -33.0569 -33.1956
8 -121.3208 -44.7083 -39.8417 7.0167 38.1500 92.3750 159.9250 35.6500 -66.4250 6.7579 6.6192
9 -102.7250 67.8833 -44.8750 -4.9833 33.5833 76.3167 -44.8417 -58.9083 11.0500 -7.5000 -7.6387
10 190.4042 95.7917 143.4250 8.6500 160.6000 -127.9583 79.8750 2.8667 204.9750 84.2921 84.1535
11 134.0625 89.9625 32.2833 247.7250 108.5333 103.2417 120.8083 186.1750 127.7750 127.8407 127.7021
12 278.3167 -58.6917 -83.2333 -55.4083 -88.0167 -35.4333 -79.6583 -16.1333 35.3917 -11.4296 -11.5683
Normalization = 0.13865741

Linear 0.002 0.224 1 118 0.637 256.108 -0.110
Logarithmic 0.003 0.372 1 118 0.543 229.287 5.280
Inverse 0.031 3.773 1 118 0.054 255.845 -143.335

Quadratic 0.014 0.811 2 117 0.447 234.251 0.965 -0.009
Cubic 0.057 2.327 3 116 0.078 183.524 5.893 -0.110 0.001
Compound 0.002 0.247 1 118 0.620 239.291 0.999
Power 0.002 0.291 1 118 0.591 211.592 0.023

S 0.034 4.114 1 118 0.045 5.476 -0.740
Growth 0.002 0.247 1 118 0.620 5.478 -0.001
Exponential 0.002 0.247 1 118 0.620 239.291 -0.001
Logistic 0.002 0.247 1 118 0.620 0.004 1.001
Cubic is chosen as its value for each parameter is significant and has the highest R square value compared with others.
Trt = 183.524 + 5.873t - 0.11t2 + 0.001t3
Model Evaluate
MAD 220.0491 972.1872
MSE 93877.5390 955174.5064
RMSE 306.3944 977.3303
MAPE 1.5125 5.9352
MPE -1.4400 -5.9352
35
APPENDIX III
Decompistion - Multiplicative
Year Month t Y MA CMA Snt . et Snt dt Trt Forecast e e e^2 e/ Y e/ Y

2005 1 1 24.5 0.727696 33.66789 181.143 131.8171 -107.317 107.3171 11516.96 4.38029 -4.38029
2 2 99.3 0.489824 202.7258 187.608 91.89492 7.405085 7.405085 54.83528 0.074573 0.074573
3 3 190.4 0.97533 195.2159 193.833 189.0512 1.348776 1.348776 1.819196 0.007084 0.007084
4 4 217.9 1.324715 164.4882 199.824 264.7098 -46.8098 46.80981 2191.159 0.214822 -0.21482
5 5 199.8 1.095223 182.4287 205.587 225.1635 -25.3635 25.36351 643.3076 0.126944 -0.12694
6 6 227.2 0.703815 322.8119 211.128 148.5952 78.60485 78.60485 6178.722 0.345972 0.345972
7 7 235 240.9833 248.6625 0.945056 0.862274 272.5351 216.453 186.6418 48.35816 48.35816 2338.512 0.205779 0.205779
8 8 137.1 256.3417 258.4208 0.53053 1.025945 133.6329 221.568 227.3165 -90.2165 90.21651 8139.019 0.658034 -0.65803
9 9 157.4 260.5 260.125 0.605094 0.987059 159.4636 226.479 223.5482 -66.1482 66.14821 4375.585 0.420255 -0.42026
10 10 450.4 259.75 259.9958 1.732335 1.348095 334.1011 231.192 311.6688 138.7312 138.7312 19246.35 0.308018 0.308018
11 11 401.2 260.2417 267.1375 1.501848 1.511764 265.3854 235.713 356.3424 44.8576 44.8576 2012.204 0.111809 0.111809
12 12 551.6 274.0333 273.2833 2.018418 0.948259 581.6975 240.048 227.6277 323.9723 323.9723 104958 0.587332 0.587332
2006 1 13 208.8 272.5333 269.0083 0.776184 0.727696 286.9329 244.203 177.7056 31.09436 31.09436 966.8592 0.148919 0.148919
2 14 149.2 265.4833 267.1542 0.558479 0.489824 304.5992 248.184 121.5665 27.6335 27.6335 763.6104 0.185211 0.185211
3 15 181.4 268.825 274.4083 0.661059 0.97533 185.9882 251.997 245.7803 -64.3803 64.38034 4144.829 0.354908 -0.35491
4 16 223.8 279.9917 274.8917 0.814139 1.324715 168.942 255.648 338.6607 -114.861 114.8607 13192.98 0.513229 -0.51323
5 17 365.3 269.7917 266.4917 1.370775 1.095223 333.5395 259.143 283.8192 81.48076 81.48076 6639.113 0.223052 0.223052
6 18 209.2 263.1917 247.3083 0.845908 0.703815 297.237 262.488 184.7431 24.45688 24.45688 598.1392 0.116907 0.116907
7 19 150.4 231.425 227.3333 0.661584 0.862274 174.4225 265.689 229.0968 -78.6968 78.69677 6193.181 0.52325 -0.52325
8 20 177.2 223.2417 221.9083 0.798528 1.025945 172.7189 268.752 275.7247 -98.5247 98.52469 9707.114 0.556008 -0.55601
9 21 291.4 220.575 223.5167 1.303706 0.987059 295.2204 271.683 268.1672 23.23276 23.23276 539.7614 0.079728 0.079728
10 22 328 226.4583 232.2083 1.412525 1.348095 243.3063 274.488 370.0359 -42.0359 42.0359 1767.017 0.128158 -0.12816
11 23 322 237.9583 232.0375 1.387707 1.511764 212.9962 277.173 419.0201 -97.0201 97.02013 9412.906 0.301305 -0.3013
12 24 170.4 226.1167 229.0917 0.743807 0.948259 179.6977 279.744 265.2698 -94.8698 94.86983 9000.285 0.556748 -0.55675
2007 1 25 110.6 232.0667 236.6583 0.46734 0.727696 151.9865 282.207 205.361 -94.761 94.76101 8979.65 0.85679 -0.85679
2 26 117.2 241.25 242.9667 0.482371 0.489824 239.2696 284.568 139.3883 -22.1883 22.18826 492.3188 0.18932 -0.18932
3 27 252 244.6833 241.7083 1.042579 0.97533 258.374 286.833 279.757 -27.757 27.75695 770.4485 0.110147 -0.11015
4 28 361.8 238.7333 242.5 1.491959 1.324715 273.1154 289.008 382.8532 -21.0532 21.05318 443.2363 0.05819 -0.05819
5 29 223.2 246.2667 245.8458 0.907886 1.095223 203.7942 291.099 318.8182 -95.6182 95.61817 9142.835 0.428397 -0.4284
6 30 280.6 245.425 246.5583 1.138067 0.703815 398.684 293.112 206.2968 74.30324 74.30324 5520.971 0.264801 0.264801
7 31 260.6 247.6917 252.9 1.030447 0.862274 302.2241 295.053 254.4166 6.183412 6.183412 38.23458 0.023728 0.023728
8 32 218.4 258.1083 258.2417 0.845719 1.025945 212.877 296.928 304.6317 -86.2317 86.2317 7435.907 0.394834 -0.39483
9 33 220 258.375 264.875 0.83058 0.987059 222.8843 298.743 294.8771 -74.8771 74.87706 5606.574 0.34035 -0.34035
10 34 418.4 271.375 274.975 1.521593 1.348095 310.3639 300.504 405.1079 13.29206 13.29206 176.6789 0.031769 0.031769
11 35 311.9 278.575 279.6167 1.115456 1.511764 206.3153 302.217 456.8807 -144.981 144.9807 21019.42 0.464831 -0.46483
12 36 197.6 280.6583 280.8333 0.70362 0.948259 208.3818 303.888 288.1646 -90.5646 90.5646 8201.947 0.458323 -0.45832
2008 1 37 235.6 281.0083 286.3917 0.82265 0.727696 323.7614 305.523 222.328 13.27202 13.27202 176.1464 0.056333 0.056333
2 38 120.4 291.775 296.8583 0.405581 0.489824 245.8025 307.128 150.4387 -30.0387 30.03869 902.3228 0.249491 -0.24949
3 39 408 301.9417 306.5417 1.330977 0.97533 418.3198 308.709 301.0933 106.9067 106.9067 11429.05 0.262026 0.262026
4 40 448.2 311.1417 307.4667 1.457719 1.324715 338.337 310.272 411.0219 37.17809 37.17809 1382.21 0.08295 0.08295
5 41 248.2 303.7917 314.1375 0.7901 1.095223 226.6206 311.823 341.5156 -93.3156 93.31557 8707.795 0.375969 -0.37597
6 42 284.8 324.4833 326.8917 0.871237 0.703815 404.6515 313.368 220.5532 64.24675 64.24675 4127.645 0.225586 0.225586
7 43 389.8 329.3 329.0417 1.184652 0.862274 452.0604 314.913 271.5414 118.2586 118.2586 13985.11 0.303383 0.303383
8 44 340.4 328.7833 333.3833 1.021047 1.025945 331.7918 316.464 324.6746 15.72544 15.72544 247.2895 0.046197 0.046197
9 45 330.4 337.9833 335.3833 0.985141 0.987059 334.7317 318.027 313.9115 16.48849 16.48849 271.8702 0.049905 0.049905
10 46 330.2 332.7833 321.55 1.026901 1.348095 244.9382 319.608 430.8619 -100.662 100.6619 10132.83 0.304851 -0.30485
11 47 560.2 310.3167 312.475 1.792783 1.511764 370.5605 321.213 485.5982 74.60179 74.60179 5565.426 0.13317 0.13317
12 48 255.4 314.6333 310.8083 0.821728 0.948259 269.3356 322.848 306.1436 -50.7436 50.7436 2574.913 0.198683 -0.19868
2009 1 49 229.4 306.9833 298.5583 0.768359 0.727696 315.2414 324.519 236.1513 -6.7513 6.751303 45.5801 0.02943 -0.02943
2 50 230.8 290.1333 287.7125 0.80219 0.489824 471.1896 326.232 159.7963 71.00371 71.00371 5041.527 0.307642 0.307642
3 51 345.6 285.2917 282.6042 1.222912 0.97533 354.3414 327.993 319.9016 25.69844 25.69844 660.4101 0.074359 0.074359
4 52 178.6 279.9167 282.1667 0.632959 1.324715 134.8215 329.808 436.9015 -258.302 258.3015 66719.69 1.446257 -1.44626
5 53 300 284.4167 274.7 1.0921 1.095223 273.9169 331.683 363.2667 -63.2667 63.26668 4002.673 0.210889 -0.21089
6 54 193 264.9833 259.625 0.74338 0.703815 274.2196 333.624 234.8097 -41.8097 41.80973 1748.054 0.216631 -0.21663
7 55 187.6 254.2667 250.825 0.747932 0.862274 217.5642 335.637 289.4111 -101.811 101.8111 10365.51 0.542703 -0.5427
8 56 282.3 247.3833 244.15 1.156256 1.025945 275.161 337.728 346.4902 -64.1902 64.19025 4120.388 0.227383 -0.22738
9 57 265.9 240.9167 232.3167 1.144558 0.987059 269.386 339.903 335.5044 -69.6044 69.60442 4844.776 0.261769 -0.26177
10 58 384.2 223.7167 223.6 1.718247 1.348095 284.9948 342.168 461.275 -77.075 77.07497 5940.551 0.200612 -0.20061
11 59 327 223.4833 218.4667 1.496796 1.511764 216.3036 344.529 520.8465 -193.847 193.8465 37576.47 0.592803 -0.5928
12 60 126.8 213.45 214.8167 0.590271 0.948259 133.7187 346.992 329.0384 -202.238 202.2384 40900.36 1.59494 -1.59494
2010 1 61 146.8 216.1833 215.7333 0.68047 0.727696 201.7325 349.563 254.3757 -107.576 107.5757 11572.54 0.732805 -0.7328
2 62 153.2 215.2833 215.8208 0.709848 0.489824 312.7654 352.248 172.5396 -19.3396 19.33955 374.0182 0.126237 -0.12624
3 63 139.2 216.3583 217.1708 0.64097 0.97533 142.7209 355.053 346.294 -207.094 207.094 42887.92 1.487744 -1.48774
4 64 175.8 217.9833 206.175 0.852674 1.324715 132.7078 357.984 474.2267 -298.427 298.4267 89058.5 1.697535 -1.69754
5 65 179.6 194.3667 195.4167 0.919062 1.095223 163.9849 361.047 395.4268 -215.827 215.8268 46581.21 1.201708 -1.20171
6 66 225.8 196.4667 200.3583 1.126981 0.703815 320.8227 364.248 256.3634 -30.5634 30.56338 934.1201 0.135356 -0.13536
7 67 176.8 204.25 205.3667 0.860899 0.862274 205.0392 367.593 316.966 -140.166 140.166 19646.5 0.792794 -0.79279
8 68 295.2 206.4833 202.825 1.455442 1.025945 287.7348 371.088 380.7158 -85.5158 85.51576 7312.946 0.289688 -0.28969
9 69 285.4 199.1667 209.0833 1.365006 0.987059 289.1417 374.739 369.8896 -84.4896 84.48962 7138.496 0.296039 -0.29604
10 70 100.8 219 228.7583 0.44064 1.348095 74.77218 378.552 510.3241 -409.524 409.5241 167710 4.062739 -4.06274
11 71 352.2 238.5167 248.9583 1.414695 1.511764 232.9729 382.533 578.2996 -226.1 226.0996 51121.02 0.641964 -0.64196
12 72 220.2 259.4 255.6333 0.86139 0.948259 232.215 386.688 366.6805 -146.48 146.4805 21456.53 0.665216 -0.66522
36
APPENDIX III
2011 1 73 173.6 251.8667 249.075 0.696979 0.727696 238.561 391.023 284.546 -110.946 110.946 12309.02 0.63909 -0.63909
2 74 65.4 246.2833 252.4583 0.259053 0.489824 133.5173 395.544 193.747 -128.347 128.347 16472.95 1.962492 -1.96249
3 75 377.2 258.6333 256.7667 1.469038 0.97533 386.7407 400.257 390.3828 -13.1828 13.18283 173.7871 0.034949 -0.03495
4 76 410 254.9 265.675 1.543239 1.324715 309.5006 405.168 536.7321 -126.732 126.7321 16061.01 0.309103 -0.3091
5 77 430.2 276.45 277.9792 1.547598 1.095223 392.7969 410.283 449.3512 -19.1512 19.15117 366.7674 0.044517 -0.04452
6 78 135.4 279.5083 277.675 0.48762 0.703815 192.38 415.608 292.5113 -157.111 157.1113 24683.97 1.16035 -1.16035
7 79 109.8 275.8417 277.5083 0.395664 0.862274 127.3377 421.149 363.1459 -253.346 253.3459 64184.15 2.30734 -2.30734
8 80 443.4 279.175 283.475 1.564159 1.025945 432.187 426.912 437.9881 5.411902 5.411902 29.28868 0.012205 0.012205
9 81 240.6 287.775 285.4417 0.842904 0.987059 243.7543 432.903 427.3009 -186.701 186.7009 34857.24 0.775981 -0.77598
10 82 359.4 283.1083 279.525 1.285753 1.348095 266.5984 439.128 591.9863 -232.586 232.5863 54096.37 0.647152 -0.64715
11 83 388.9 275.9417 268.0917 1.450623 1.511764 257.2492 445.593 673.6314 -284.731 284.7314 81071.97 0.732146 -0.73215
12 84 176.2 260.2417 255.8583 0.688662 0.948259 185.8142 452.304 428.9014 -252.701 252.7014 63858.02 1.434174 -1.43417
2012 1 85 213.6 251.475 258.4667 0.826412 0.727696 293.529 459.267 334.2069 -120.607 120.6069 14546.03 0.564639 -0.56464
2 86 168.6 265.4583 258.35 0.652603 0.489824 344.2052 466.488 228.4971 -59.8971 59.89705 3587.657 0.355261 -0.35526
3 87 321.2 251.2417 248.1167 1.294552 0.97533 329.3243 473.973 462.2803 -141.08 141.0803 19903.65 0.439229 -0.43923
4 88 324 244.9917 239.3583 1.353619 1.324715 244.5809 481.728 638.1522 -314.152 314.1522 98691.62 0.969606 -0.96961
5 89 241.8 233.725 234.6542 1.030453 1.095223 220.7771 489.759 536.3951 -294.595 294.5951 86786.26 1.218342 -1.21834
6 90 30.2 235.5833 237.0167 0.127417 0.703815 42.90897 498.072 350.5508 -320.351 320.3508 102624.6 10.60764 -10.6076
7 91 277.6 238.45 239.6333 1.158437 0.862274 321.9394 506.673 436.8911 -159.291 159.2911 25373.64 0.573815 -0.57382
8 92 272.8 240.8167 237.15 1.150327 1.025945 265.9013 515.568 528.9443 -256.144 256.1443 65609.88 0.938945 -0.93895
9 93 165.6 233.4833 224.5083 0.737612 0.987059 167.7711 524.763 517.9722 -352.372 352.3722 124166.2 2.127851 -2.12785
10 94 224.2 215.5333 221.3333 1.012952 1.348095 166.3088 534.264 720.2386 -496.039 496.0386 246054.3 2.212483 -2.21248
11 95 411.2 227.1333 225.025 1.827353 1.511764 272.0001 544.077 822.516 -411.316 411.316 169180.8 1.000282 -1.00028
12 96 210.6 222.9167 226.7333 0.928844 0.948259 222.0912 554.208 525.5329 -314.933 314.9329 99182.7 1.495408 -1.49541
2013 1 97 242 230.55 226.1 1.070323 0.727696 332.5563 564.663 410.9032 -168.903 168.9032 28528.3 0.697947 -0.69795
2 98 80.6 221.65 216.5333 0.372229 0.489824 164.5489 575.448 281.8683 -201.268 201.2683 40508.92 2.497125 -2.49713
3 99 105.8 211.4167 213.9667 0.49447 0.97533 108.4761 586.569 572.0986 -466.299 466.2986 217434.4 4.407359 -4.40736
4 100 463.2 216.5167 224.6333 2.062027 1.324715 349.6602 598.032 792.2218 -329.022 329.0218 108255.4 0.710324 -0.71032
5 101 191.2 232.75 229.9417 0.831515 1.095223 174.5764 609.843 667.9138 -476.714 476.7138 227256 2.493273 -2.49327
6 102 121.8 227.1333 229.0167 0.531839 0.703815 173.0567 622.008 437.7789 -315.979 315.9789 99842.64 2.594243 -2.59424
7 103 170.8 230.9 224.6417 0.760322 0.862274 198.0808 634.533 547.1414 -376.341 376.3414 141632.9 2.203404 -2.2034
8 104 150 218.3833 216.425 0.693081 1.025945 146.2067 647.424 664.2212 -514.221 514.2212 264423.5 3.428141 -3.42814
9 105 226.8 214.4667 215.75 1.051217 0.987059 229.7734 660.687 652.1373 -425.337 425.3373 180911.8 1.875385 -1.87538
10 106 419 217.0333 214.025 1.957715 1.348095 310.809 674.328 909.0582 -490.058 490.0582 240157 1.16959 -1.16959
11 107 343.8 211.0167 216.025 1.591482 1.511764 227.4165 688.353 1040.627 -696.827 696.8272 485568.2 2.026839 -2.02684
12 108 255.8 221.0333 220.4083 1.160573 0.948259 269.7575 702.768 666.4062 -410.606 410.6062 168597.5 1.605185 -1.60518
2014 1 109 91.8 219.7833 214.7417 0.42749 0.727696 126.1515 717.579 522.1796 -430.38 430.3796 185226.6 4.688231 -4.68823
2 110 33.6 209.7 213.6417 0.157273 0.489824 68.59606 732.792 358.9392 -325.339 325.3392 105845.6 9.682713 -9.68271
3 111 136.6 217.5833 226.1917 0.603913 0.97533 140.0551 748.413 729.95 -593.35 593.35 352064.2 4.343704 -4.3437
4 112 391 234.8 231.3167 1.690324 1.324715 295.1579 764.448 1012.676 -621.676 621.6756 386480.5 1.589963 -1.58996
5 113 311.4 227.8333 231.0333 1.347857 1.095223 284.3258 780.903 855.2625 -543.863 543.8625 295786.5 1.746508 -1.74651
6 114 106.8 234.2333 237.725 0.449259 0.703815 151.7443 797.784 561.4927 -454.693 454.6927 206745.5 4.257423 -4.25742
7 115 49.8 241.2167 0.862274 57.75425 815.097 702.8371 -653.037 653.0371 426457.5 13.11319 -13.1132
8 116 244.6 1.025945 238.4144 832.848 854.456 -609.856 609.856 371924.3 2.493279 -2.49328
9 117 433.4 0.987059 439.082 851.043 840.0299 -406.63 406.6299 165347.9 0.938232 -0.93823
10 118 335.4 1.348095 248.7955 869.688 1172.422 -837.022 837.022 700605.9 2.495593 -2.49559
11 119 420.6 1.511764 278.218 888.789 1343.639 -923.039 923.0391 852001.2 2.194577 -2.19458
12 120 339.6 0.948259 358.1299 908.352 861.3532 -521.753 521.7532 272226.4 1.536376 -1.53638
Evaluation
2015 1 121 166 0.727696 928.383 675.581 -509.581 509.581 259672.7 3.069765 -3.06976
2 122 59.8 0.489824 948.888 464.7882 -404.988 404.9882 164015.4 6.772378 -6.77238
3 123 128.6 0.97533 969.873 945.9467 -817.347 817.3467 668055.6 6.355728 -6.35573
4 124 187.6 1.324715 991.344 1313.248 -1125.65 1125.648 1267084 6.000256 -6.00026
5 125 341.4 1.095223 1013.307 1109.797 -768.397 768.3966 590433.4 2.250722 -2.25072
6 126 121.8 0.703815 1035.768 728.9895 -607.19 607.1895 368679.1 4.985136 -4.98514
7 127 239 0.862274 1058.733 912.9181 -673.918 673.9181 454165.7 2.819741 -2.81974
8 128 270.2 1.025945 1082.208 1110.286 -840.086 840.0855 705743.7 3.109125 -3.10912
9 129 224.4 0.987059 1106.199 1091.884 -867.484 867.484 752528.5 3.865793 -3.86579
10 130 432.4 1.348095 1130.712 1524.307 -1091.91 1091.907 1192261 2.525225 -2.52522
11 131 405.6 1.511764 1155.753 1747.226 -1341.63 1341.626 1799959 3.307756 -3.30776
12 132 111.8 0.948259 1181.328 1120.205 -1008.41 1008.405 1016881 9.019724 -9.01972
37
APPENDIX III
Month Average Final Estimator

1 0.4274904 0.776184133 0.46734 0.82265 0.768359 0.68047 0.696979 0.826412 1.070323 0.726245 0.727696386
2 0.15727269 0.558479031 0.482371 0.405581 0.80219 0.709848 0.259053 0.652603 0.372229 0.488847 0.489824075
3 0.60391261 0.661058641 1.042579 1.330977 1.222912 0.64097 1.469038 1.294552 0.49447 0.973385 0.975330435
4 1.69032351 0.814138903 1.491959 1.457719 0.632959 0.852674 1.543239 1.353619 2.062027 1.322073 1.324714812
5 1.34785745 1.370774571 0.907886 0.7901 1.0921 0.919062 1.547598 1.030453 0.831515 1.093038 1.095222501
6 0.4492586 0.845907605 1.138067 0.871237 0.74338 1.126981 0.48762 0.127417 0.531839 0.702412 0.703815473
7 0.94505605 0.661583578 1.030447 1.184652 0.747932 0.860899 0.395664 1.158437 0.760322 0.860555 0.862274196
8 0.53052998 0.798527921 0.845719 1.021047 1.156256 1.455442 1.564159 1.150327 0.693081 1.023899 1.025944686
9 0.6050937 1.303705913 0.83058 0.985141 1.144558 1.365006 0.842904 0.737612 1.051217 0.985091 0.987059313
10 1.73233545 1.412524673 1.521593 1.026901 1.718247 0.44064 1.285753 1.012952 1.957715 1.345407 1.348094997
11 1.5018483 1.387706728 1.115456 1.792783 1.496796 1.414695 1.450623 1.827353 1.591482 1.508749 1.511763891
12 2.018418 0.743807064 0.70362 0.821728 0.590271 0.86139 0.688662 0.928844 1.160573 0.946368 0.948259234
Normalization = 1.001998142

Linear 0.008 0.939 1 118 0.335 263.598 -0.239
Logarithmic 0.002 0.182 1 118 0.670 234.221 3.917
Inverse 0.043 5.325 1 118 0.023 257.180 -179.185

Quadratic 0.032 1.934 2 117 0.149 230.484 1.390 -0.013
Cubic 0.079 3.313 3 116 0.023 174.432 6.836 -0.126 0.001
Compound 0.008 0.918 1 118 0.340 245.219 0.999
Power 0.006 0.732 1 118 0.394 197.908 0.038

S 0.111 14.664 1 118 0.000 5.495 -1.392
Growth 0.008 0.918 1 118 0.340 5.502 -0.001
Exponential 0.008 0.918 1 118 0.340 245.219 -0.001
Logistic 0.008 0.918 1 118 0.340 0.004 1.001
Cubic is chosen as its value for each parameter is significant and has the highest R square value compared with others.
Trt = 174.432 + 6.836t - 0.126t2 + 0.001t3
Model Evaluate
MAD 193.1775 838.0480
MSE 74561.4436 769956.6253
RMSE 273.0594 877.4717
MAPE 1.1852 4.5068
MPE -1.1141 -4.5068
38
APPENDIX IV
Nave Seasonal and Trend
Year Month t Y Forecast e e e^2 e/ Y e/ Y

2005 1 1 24.5 Model Evaluate
2 2 99.3 MAD 97.9975 94.3806
3 3 190.4 MSE 14747.9298 16119.3252
4 4 217.9 RMSE 121.4411 126.9619
5 5 199.8 MAPE 0.5007 0.5209
6 6 227.2 MPE -0.1904 -0.1764
7 7 235
8 8 137.1
9 9 157.4
10 10 450.4
11 11 401.2
12 12 551.6
2006 1 13 208.8
2 14 149.2 114.6583 34.5417 34.5417 1193.1267 0.2315 0.2315
3 15 181.4 194.5583 -13.1583 13.1583 173.1417 0.0725 -0.0725
4 16 223.8 217.1500 6.6500 6.6500 44.2225 0.0297 0.0297
5 17 365.3 200.2917 165.0083 165.0083 27227.7501 0.4517 0.4517
6 18 209.2 240.9917 -31.7917 31.7917 1010.7101 0.1520 -0.1520
7 19 150.4 233.5000 -83.1000 83.1000 6905.6100 0.5525 -0.5525
8 20 177.2 130.0500 47.1500 47.1500 2223.1225 0.2661 0.2661
9 21 291.4 160.7417 130.6583 130.6583 17071.6001 0.4484 0.4484
10 22 328 461.5667 -133.5667 133.5667 17840.0544 0.4072 -0.4072
11 23 322 391.0000 -69.0000 69.0000 4761.0000 0.2143 -0.2143
12 24 170.4 545.0000 -374.6000 374.6000 140325.1600 2.1984 -2.1984
2007 1 25 110.6 177.0333 -66.4333 66.4333 4413.3878 0.6007 -0.6007
2 26 117.2 141.0167 -23.8167 23.8167 567.2336 0.2032 -0.2032
3 27 252 178.7333 73.2667 73.2667 5368.0044 0.2907 0.2907
4 28 361.8 229.6833 132.1167 132.1167 17454.8136 0.3652 0.3652
5 29 223.2 376.8000 -153.6000 153.6000 23592.9600 0.6882 -0.6882
6 30 280.6 197.3583 83.2417 83.2417 6929.1751 0.2967 0.2967
7 31 260.6 156.3500 104.2500 104.2500 10868.0625 0.4000 0.4000
8 32 218.4 186.3833 32.0167 32.0167 1025.0669 0.1466 0.1466
9 33 220 294.8333 -74.8333 74.8333 5600.0278 0.3402 -0.3402
10 34 418.4 322.0500 96.3500 96.3500 9283.3225 0.2303 0.2303
11 35 311.9 329.5333 -17.6333 17.6333 310.9344 0.0565 -0.0565
12 36 197.6 169.5583 28.0417 28.0417 786.3351 0.1419 0.1419
2008 1 37 235.6 112.8667 122.7333 122.7333 15063.4711 0.5209 0.5209
2 38 120.4 127.6167 -7.2167 7.2167 52.0803 0.0599 -0.0599
3 39 408 252.2667 155.7333 155.7333 24252.8711 0.3817 0.3817
4 40 448.2 374.8000 73.4000 73.4000 5387.5600 0.1638 0.1638
5 41 248.2 230.4000 17.8000 17.8000 316.8400 0.0717 0.0717
6 42 284.8 282.6833 2.1167 2.1167 4.4803 0.0074 0.0074
7 43 389.8 260.9500 128.8500 128.8500 16602.3225 0.3306 0.3306
8 44 340.4 229.1667 111.2333 111.2333 12372.8544 0.3268 0.3268
9 45 330.4 230.1667 100.2333 100.2333 10046.7211 0.3034 0.3034
10 46 330.2 427.6000 -97.4000 97.4000 9486.7600 0.2950 -0.2950
11 47 560.2 304.5500 255.6500 255.6500 65356.9225 0.4564 0.4564
12 48 255.4 218.2917 37.1083 37.1083 1377.0284 0.1453 0.1453
2009 1 49 229.4 240.4167 -11.0167 11.0167 121.3669 0.0480 -0.0480
2 50 230.8 119.8833 110.9167 110.9167 12302.5069 0.4806 0.4806
3 51 345.6 417.2000 -71.6000 71.6000 5126.5600 0.2072 -0.2072
4 52 178.6 443.0000 -264.4000 264.4000 69907.3600 1.4804 -1.4804
5 53 300 225.7333 74.2667 74.2667 5515.5378 0.2476 0.2476
6 54 193 289.1167 -96.1167 96.1167 9238.4136 0.4980 -0.4980
7 55 187.6 382.1500 -194.5500 194.5500 37849.7025 1.0370 -1.0370
8 56 282.3 323.5500 -41.2500 41.2500 1701.5625 0.1461 -0.1461
9 57 265.9 325.5583 -59.6583 59.6583 3559.1167 0.2244 -0.2244
10 58 384.2 324.8250 59.3750 59.3750 3525.3906 0.1545 0.1545
11 59 327 564.7000 -237.7000 237.7000 56501.2900 0.7269 -0.7269
12 60 126.8 235.9667 -109.1667 109.1667 11917.3611 0.8609 -0.8609
2010 1 61 146.8 218.6833 -71.8833 71.8833 5167.2136 0.4897 -0.4897
2 62 153.2 223.9167 -70.7167 70.7167 5000.8469 0.4616 -0.4616
3 63 139.2 339.1333 -199.9333 199.9333 39973.3378 1.4363 -1.4363
4 64 175.8 161.4000 14.4000 14.4000 207.3600 0.0819 0.0819
5 65 179.6 299.7667 -120.1667 120.1667 14440.0278 0.6691 -0.6691
6 66 225.8 182.9667 42.8333 42.8333 1834.6944 0.1897 0.1897
7 67 176.8 190.3333 -13.5333 13.5333 183.1511 0.0765 -0.0765
8 68 295.2 281.4000 13.8000 13.8000 190.4400 0.0467 0.0467
9 69 285.4 266.9750 18.4250 18.4250 339.4806 0.0646 0.0646
10 70 100.8 385.8250 -285.0250 285.0250 81239.2506 2.8276 -2.8276
11 71 352.2 303.3833 48.8167 48.8167 2383.0669 0.1386 0.1386
12 72 220.2 128.9000 91.3000 91.3000 8335.6900 0.4146 0.4146
39
APPENDIX IV
2011 1 73 173.6 154.5833 19.0167 19.0167 361.6336 0.1095 0.1095

2 74 65.4 155.4333 -90.0333 90.0333 8106.0011 1.3767 -1.3767
3 75 377.2 131.8833 245.3167 245.3167 60180.2669 0.6504 0.6504
4 76 410 195.6333 214.3667 214.3667 45953.0678 0.5228 0.5228
5 77 430.2 199.1167 231.0833 231.0833 53399.5069 0.5372 0.5372
6 78 135.4 246.6833 -111.2833 111.2833 12383.9803 0.8219 -0.8219
7 79 109.8 169.2667 -59.4667 59.4667 3536.2844 0.5416 -0.5416
8 80 443.4 289.6167 153.7833 153.7833 23649.3136 0.3468 0.3468
9 81 240.6 297.7500 -57.1500 57.1500 3266.1225 0.2375 -0.2375
10 82 359.4 97.0667 262.3333 262.3333 68818.7778 0.7299 0.7299
11 83 388.9 373.7500 15.1500 15.1500 229.5225 0.0390 0.0390
12 84 176.2 223.2583 -47.0583 47.0583 2214.4867 0.2671 -0.2671
2012 1 85 213.6 169.9333 43.6667 43.6667 1906.7778 0.2044 0.2044
2 86 168.6 68.7333 99.8667 99.8667 9973.3511 0.5923 0.5923
3 87 321.2 385.8000 -64.6000 64.6000 4173.1600 0.2011 -0.2011
4 88 324 405.3333 -81.3333 81.3333 6615.1111 0.2510 -0.2510
5 89 241.8 423.0333 -181.2333 181.2333 32845.5211 0.7495 -0.7495
6 90 30.2 119.7000 -89.5000 89.5000 8010.2500 2.9636 -2.9636
7 91 277.6 101.0333 176.5667 176.5667 31175.7878 0.6360 0.6360
8 92 272.8 457.3833 -184.5833 184.5833 34071.0069 0.6766 -0.6766
9 93 165.6 226.3833 -60.7833 60.7833 3694.6136 0.3670 -0.3670
10 94 224.2 353.1500 -128.9500 128.9500 16628.1025 0.5752 -0.5752
11 95 411.2 377.6333 33.5667 33.5667 1126.7211 0.0816 0.0816
12 96 210.6 178.0583 32.5417 32.5417 1058.9601 0.1545 0.1545
2013 1 97 242 216.4667 25.5333 25.5333 651.9511 0.1055 0.1055
2 98 80.6 170.9667 -90.3667 90.3667 8166.1344 1.1212 -1.1212
3 99 105.8 313.8667 -208.0667 208.0667 43291.7378 1.9666 -1.9666
4 100 463.2 306.0500 157.1500 157.1500 24696.1225 0.3393 0.3393
5 101 191.2 253.4000 -62.2000 62.2000 3868.8400 0.3253 -0.3253
6 102 121.8 25.9833 95.8167 95.8167 9180.8336 0.7867 0.7867
7 103 170.8 285.2333 -114.4333 114.4333 13094.9878 0.6700 -0.6700
8 104 150 263.9000 -113.9000 113.9000 12973.2100 0.7593 -0.7593
9 105 226.8 155.3667 71.4333 71.4333 5102.7211 0.3150 0.3150
10 106 419 229.3000 189.7000 189.7000 35986.0900 0.4527 0.4527
11 107 343.8 427.4333 -83.6333 83.6333 6994.5344 0.2433 -0.2433
12 108 255.8 204.9833 50.8167 50.8167 2582.3336 0.1987 0.1987
2014 1 109 91.8 245.7667 -153.9667 153.9667 23705.7344 1.6772 -1.6772
2 110 33.6 68.0833 -34.4833 34.4833 1189.1003 1.0263 -1.0263
3 111 136.6 101.8833 34.7167 34.7167 1205.2469 0.2541 0.2541
4 112 391 465.7667 -74.7667 74.7667 5590.0544 0.1912 -0.1912
5 113 311.4 185.1833 126.2167 126.2167 15930.6469 0.4053 0.4053
6 114 106.8 131.8167 -25.0167 25.0167 625.8336 0.2342 -0.2342
7 115 49.8 169.5500 -119.7500 119.7500 14340.0625 2.4046 -2.4046
8 116 244.6 139.9167 104.6833 104.6833 10958.6003 0.4280 0.4280
9 117 433.4 234.6833 198.7167 198.7167 39488.3136 0.4585 0.4585
10 118 335.4 436.2167 -100.8167 100.8167 10164.0003 0.3006 -0.3006
11 119 420.6 336.8333 83.7667 83.7667 7016.8544 0.1992 0.1992
12 120 339.6 262.2000 77.4000 77.4000 5990.7600 0.2279 0.2279
Evaluation
2015 1 121 166 98.7833 67.2167 67.2167 4518.0803 0.4049 0.4049
2 122 59.8 39.7833 20.0167 20.0167 400.6669 0.3347 0.3347
3 123 128.6 138.7833 -10.1833 10.1833 103.7003 0.0792 -0.0792
4 124 187.6 390.3333 -202.7333 202.7333 41100.8044 1.0807 -1.0807
5 125 341.4 294.4500 46.9500 46.9500 2204.3025 0.1375 0.1375
6 126 121.8 109.3000 12.5000 12.5000 156.2500 0.1026 0.1026
7 127 239 51.0500 187.9500 187.9500 35325.2025 0.7864 0.7864
8 128 270.2 260.3667 9.8333 9.8333 96.6944 0.0364 0.0364
9 129 224.4 435.5333 -211.1333 211.1333 44577.2844 0.9409 -0.9409
10 130 432.4 317.9833 114.4167 114.4167 13091.1736 0.2646 0.2646
11 131 405.6 428.6833 -23.0833 23.0833 532.8403 0.0569 -0.0569
12 132 111.8 338.3500 -226.5500 226.5500 51324.9025 2.0264 -2.0264
40
APPENDIX V
Holt's Winter - Additive
Alpha 0.077272 Beta 0.0000001 Gamma 0.504116 MSE 11742
Year Month t Y Lt bt St Forecast e e e^2 e/ Y e/ Y

2005 1 1 24.5 -216.4833 Model Evaluate
2 2 99.3 -141.6833 MAD 84.9590 72.0809
3 3 190.4 -50.5833 MSE 11741.9999 9316.8099
4 4 217.9 -23.0833 RMSE 108.3605 96.5236
5 5 199.8 -41.1833 MAPE 0.4572 0.4080
6 6 227.2 -13.7833 MPE -0.1582 -0.2389
7 7 235 -5.9833
8 8 137.1 -103.8833
9 9 157.4 -83.5833
10 10 450.4 209.4167
11 11 401.2 160.2167
12 12 551.6 240.9833 -0.7965 310.6167
2006 1 13 208.8 254.4896 -0.7965 -130.3835 23.7035 185.0965 185.0965 34260.7246 0.8865 0.8865
2 14 149.2 256.5669 -0.7965 -124.3839 112.0098 37.1902 37.1902 1383.1125 0.2493 0.2493
3 15 181.4 253.9323 -0.7965 -61.6482 205.1870 -23.7870 23.7870 565.8227 0.1311 -0.1311
4 16 223.8 252.6526 -0.7965 -25.9917 230.0524 -6.2524 6.2524 39.0928 0.0279 -0.0279
5 17 365.3 263.8045 -0.7965 30.7434 210.6728 154.6272 154.6272 23909.5841 0.4233 0.4233
6 18 209.2 259.9152 -0.7965 -32.4013 249.2246 -40.0246 40.0246 1601.9714 0.1913 -0.1913
7 19 150.4 251.1801 -0.7965 -53.7719 253.1353 -102.7353 102.7353 10554.5447 0.6831 -0.6831
8 20 177.2 252.7558 -0.7965 -89.6030 146.5002 30.6998 30.6998 942.4781 0.1732 0.1732
9 21 291.4 261.4656 -0.7965 -26.3572 168.3759 123.0241 123.0241 15134.9261 0.4222 0.4222
10 22 328 249.6898 -0.7965 143.3238 470.0857 -142.0857 142.0857 20188.3579 0.4332 -0.4332
11 23 322 242.1621 -0.7965 119.6965 409.1099 -87.1099 87.1099 7588.1388 0.2705 -0.2705
12 24 170.4 211.8798 -0.7965 133.1192 551.9822 -381.5822 381.5822 145604.9852 2.2393 -2.2393
2007 1 25 110.6 213.3937 -0.7965 -116.4751 80.6998 29.9002 29.9002 894.0225 0.2703 0.2703
2 26 117.2 214.8371 -0.7965 -110.9004 88.2133 28.9867 28.9867 840.2259 0.2473 0.2473
3 27 252 221.7375 -0.7965 -15.3145 152.3924 99.6076 99.6076 9921.6748 0.3953 0.3953
4 28 361.8 233.8339 -0.7965 51.6209 194.9492 166.8508 166.8508 27839.1879 0.4612 0.4612
5 29 223.2 229.9016 -0.7965 11.8668 263.7807 -40.5807 40.5807 1646.7935 0.1818 -0.1818
6 30 280.6 235.5879 -0.7965 6.6241 196.7038 83.8962 83.8962 7038.5748 0.2990 0.2990
7 31 260.6 240.9407 -0.7965 -16.7541 181.0195 79.5805 79.5805 6333.0565 0.3054 0.3054
8 32 218.4 245.3878 -0.7965 -58.0377 150.5413 67.8587 67.8587 4604.8079 0.3107 0.3107
9 33 220 244.7278 -0.7965 -25.5358 218.2341 1.7659 1.7659 3.1185 0.0080 0.0080
10 34 418.4 246.3379 -0.7965 157.8113 387.2550 31.1450 31.1450 970.0093 0.0744 0.0744
11 35 311.9 241.4198 -0.7965 94.8857 365.2378 -53.3378 53.3378 2844.9207 0.1710 -0.1710
12 36 197.6 227.0124 -0.7965 51.1844 373.7425 -176.1425 176.1425 31026.1682 0.8914 -0.8914
2008 1 37 235.6 235.9413 -0.7965 -57.9301 109.7408 125.8592 125.8592 15840.5461 0.5342 0.5342
2 38 120.4 234.8477 -0.7965 -112.6886 124.2444 -3.8444 3.8444 14.7790 0.0319 -0.0319
3 39 408 248.6760 -0.7965 72.7236 218.7366 189.2634 189.2634 35820.6167 0.4639 0.4639
4 40 448.2 259.3698 -0.7965 120.7903 299.5003 148.6997 148.6997 22111.5913 0.3318 0.3318
5 41 248.2 256.8547 -0.7965 1.5215 270.4400 -22.2400 22.2400 494.6192 0.0896 -0.0896
6 42 284.8 257.7673 -0.7965 16.9124 262.6823 22.1177 22.1177 489.1944 0.0777 0.0777
7 43 389.8 268.5294 -0.7965 52.8264 240.2167 149.5833 149.5833 22375.1618 0.3837 0.3837
8 44 340.4 277.8328 -0.7965 2.7612 209.6952 130.7048 130.7048 17083.7356 0.3840 0.3840
9 45 330.4 283.1330 -0.7965 11.1653 251.5005 78.8995 78.8995 6225.1387 0.2388 0.2388
10 46 330.2 273.8405 -0.7965 106.6678 440.1477 -109.9477 109.9477 12088.4999 0.3330 -0.3330
11 47 560.2 287.9012 -0.7965 184.3225 367.9298 192.2702 192.2702 36967.8408 0.3432 0.3432
12 48 255.4 280.6996 -0.7965 12.6276 338.2891 -82.8891 82.8891 6870.6021 0.3245 -0.3245
2009 1 49 229.4 280.4770 -0.7965 -54.4754 221.9730 7.4270 7.4270 55.1607 0.0324 0.0324
2 50 230.8 284.6111 -0.7965 -83.0075 166.9919 63.8081 63.8081 4071.4768 0.2765 0.2765
3 51 345.6 282.9694 -0.7965 67.6356 356.5382 -10.9382 10.9382 119.6437 0.0316 -0.0316
4 52 178.6 264.8358 -0.7965 16.4251 402.9632 -224.3632 224.3632 50338.8246 1.2562 -1.2562
5 53 300 266.7005 -0.7965 17.5413 265.5608 34.4392 34.4392 1186.0578 0.1148 0.1148
6 54 193 258.9636 -0.7965 -24.8667 282.8163 -89.8163 89.8163 8066.9705 0.4654 -0.4654
7 55 187.6 248.6322 -0.7965 -4.5716 310.9935 -123.3935 123.3935 15225.9491 0.6577 -0.6577
8 56 282.3 250.2855 -0.7965 17.5083 250.5969 31.7031 31.7031 1005.0873 0.1123 0.1123
9 57 265.9 249.8943 -0.7965 13.6054 260.6542 5.2458 5.2458 27.5183 0.0197 0.0197
10 58 384.2 251.2950 -0.7965 119.8944 355.7655 28.4345 28.4345 808.5190 0.0740 0.0740
11 59 327 242.1669 -0.7965 134.1683 434.8210 -107.8210 107.8210 11625.3577 0.3297 -0.3297
12 60 126.8 231.5415 -0.7965 -46.5400 253.9979 -127.1979 127.1979 16179.3107 1.0031 -1.0031
2010 1 61 146.8 228.4678 -0.7965 -68.1835 176.2696 -29.4696 29.4696 868.4551 0.2007 -0.2007
2 62 153.2 228.3308 -0.7965 -79.0368 144.6637 8.5363 8.5363 72.8682 0.0557 0.0557
3 63 139.2 215.4822 -0.7965 -4.9157 295.1699 -155.9699 155.9699 24326.6091 1.1205 -1.1205
4 64 175.8 210.4117 -0.7965 -9.3033 231.1108 -55.3108 55.3108 3059.2824 0.3146 -0.3146
5 65 179.6 205.9403 -0.7965 -4.5801 227.1565 -47.5565 47.5565 2261.6181 0.2648 -0.2648
6 66 225.8 208.6615 -0.7965 -3.6912 180.2771 45.5229 45.5229 2072.3381 0.2016 0.2016
7 67 176.8 205.8177 -0.7965 -16.8953 203.2934 -26.4934 26.4934 701.8990 0.1498 -0.1498
8 68 295.2 210.6366 -0.7965 51.3118 222.5295 72.6705 72.6705 5281.0025 0.2462 0.2462
9 69 285.4 214.6275 -0.7965 42.4243 223.4455 61.9545 61.9545 3838.3577 0.2171 0.2171
10 70 100.8 195.8323 -0.7965 11.5464 333.7253 -232.9253 232.9253 54254.2136 2.3108 -2.3108
11 71 352.2 196.8127 -0.7965 144.8652 329.2041 22.9959 22.9959 528.8133 0.0653 0.0653
12 72 220.2 201.4812 -0.7965 -13.6420 149.4761 70.7239 70.7239 5001.8673 0.3212 0.3212
41
APPENDIX V
2011 1 73 173.6 203.8604 -0.7965 -49.0659 132.5011 41.0989 41.0989 1689.1167 0.2367 0.2367
2 74 65.4 198.5336 -0.7965 -106.3079 124.0271 -58.6271 58.6271 3437.1414 0.8964 -0.8964
3 75 377.2 211.9845 -0.7965 80.8502 192.8215 184.3785 184.3785 33995.4497 0.4888 0.4888
4 76 410 227.2695 -0.7965 87.5040 201.8846 208.1154 208.1154 43312.0114 0.5076 0.5076
5 77 430.2 242.5693 -0.7965 92.3164 221.8929 208.3071 208.3071 43391.8615 0.4842 0.4842
6 78 135.4 233.8384 -0.7965 -51.4548 238.0816 -102.6816 102.6816 10543.5148 0.7584 -0.7584
7 79 109.8 224.8242 -0.7965 -66.3636 216.1466 -106.3466 106.3466 11309.5970 0.9685 -0.9685
8 80 443.4 237.0141 -0.7965 129.4872 275.3395 168.0605 168.0605 28244.3240 0.3790 0.3790
9 81 240.6 233.2780 -0.7965 24.7287 278.6419 -38.0419 38.0419 1447.1837 0.1581 -0.1581
10 82 359.4 241.3965 -0.7965 65.2131 244.0279 115.3721 115.3721 13310.7208 0.3210 0.3210
11 83 388.9 240.8654 -0.7965 146.4629 385.4652 3.4348 3.4348 11.7979 0.0088 0.0088
12 84 176.2 236.1878 -0.7965 -37.0056 226.4269 -50.2269 50.2269 2522.7449 0.2851 -0.2851
2012 1 85 213.6 237.4988 -0.7965 -36.3788 186.3254 27.2746 27.2746 743.9049 0.1277 0.1277
2 86 168.6 239.6545 -0.7965 -88.5361 130.3944 38.2056 38.2056 1459.6659 0.2266 0.2266
3 87 321.2 238.9733 -0.7965 81.5441 319.7082 1.4918 1.4918 2.2255 0.0046 0.0046
4 88 324 238.0469 -0.7965 86.7222 325.6808 -1.6808 1.6808 2.8250 0.0052 -0.0052
5 89 241.8 230.4684 -0.7965 51.4907 329.5668 -87.7668 87.7668 7703.0075 0.3630 -0.3630
6 90 30.2 218.2343 -0.7965 -120.3067 178.2171 -148.0171 148.0171 21909.0674 4.9012 -4.9012
7 91 277.6 227.2147 -0.7965 -7.5086 151.0741 126.5259 126.5259 16008.8019 0.4558 0.4558
8 92 272.8 219.9964 -0.7965 90.8297 355.9053 -83.1053 83.1053 6906.4957 0.3046 -0.3046
9 93 165.6 213.1473 -0.7965 -11.7068 243.9286 -78.3286 78.3286 6135.3646 0.4730 -0.4730
10 94 224.2 208.2272 -0.7965 40.3903 277.5639 -53.3639 53.3639 2847.7035 0.2380 -0.2380
11 95 411.2 211.8589 -0.7965 173.1197 353.8936 57.3064 57.3064 3284.0246 0.1394 0.1394
12 96 210.6 213.8861 -0.7965 -20.0071 174.0567 36.5433 36.5433 1335.4113 0.1735 0.1735
2013 1 97 242 218.1347 -0.7965 -6.0087 176.7109 65.2891 65.2891 4262.6712 0.2698 0.2698
2 98 80.6 213.6135 -0.7965 -110.9578 128.8020 -48.2020 48.2020 2323.4368 0.5980 -0.5980
3 99 105.8 198.2464 -0.7965 -6.1673 294.3611 -188.5611 188.5611 35555.2707 1.7822 -1.7822
4 100 463.2 211.2838 -0.7965 169.9992 284.1720 179.0280 179.0280 32051.0117 0.3865 0.3865
5 101 191.2 205.0181 -0.7965 18.5675 261.9779 -70.7779 70.7779 5009.5110 0.3702 -0.3702
6 102 121.8 207.1490 -0.7965 -102.6840 83.9148 37.8852 37.8852 1435.2847 0.3110 0.3110
7 103 170.8 204.1855 -0.7965 -20.5536 198.8439 -28.0439 28.0439 786.4583 0.1642 -0.1642
8 104 150 192.2448 -0.7965 23.7447 294.2187 -144.2187 144.2187 20799.0276 0.9615 -0.9615
9 105 226.8 195.0846 -0.7965 10.1830 179.7415 47.0585 47.0585 2214.5010 0.2075 0.2075
10 106 419 208.5311 -0.7965 126.1297 234.6784 184.3216 184.3216 33974.4555 0.4399 0.4399
11 107 343.8 204.8713 -0.7965 155.8835 380.8542 -37.0542 37.0542 1373.0139 0.1078 -0.1078
12 108 255.8 209.6177 -0.7965 13.3601 184.0677 71.7323 71.7323 5145.5292 0.2804 0.2804
2014 1 109 91.8 200.2430 -0.7965 -57.6475 202.8124 -111.0124 111.0124 12323.7564 1.2093 -1.2093
2 110 33.6 195.2051 -0.7965 -136.4899 88.4886 -54.8886 54.8886 3012.7585 1.6336 -1.6336
3 111 136.6 190.4181 -0.7965 -30.1888 188.2413 -51.6413 51.6413 2666.8207 0.3780 -0.3780
4 112 391 192.0463 -0.7965 184.5956 359.6207 31.3793 31.3793 984.6577 0.0803 0.0803
5 113 311.4 199.0993 -0.7965 65.8199 209.8173 101.5827 101.5827 10319.0459 0.3262 0.3262
6 114 106.8 199.1668 -0.7965 -97.4829 95.6188 11.1812 11.1812 125.0181 0.1047 0.1047
7 115 49.8 188.4781 -0.7965 -80.1021 177.8167 -128.0167 128.0167 16388.2814 2.5706 -2.5706
8 116 244.6 190.2450 -0.7965 39.1758 211.4263 33.1737 33.1737 1100.4934 0.1356 0.1356
9 117 433.4 207.5123 -0.7965 118.9232 199.6315 233.7685 233.7685 54647.7096 0.5394 0.5394
10 118 335.4 206.9132 -0.7965 127.3179 332.8455 2.5545 2.5545 6.5257 0.0076 0.0076
11 119 420.6 210.6448 -0.7965 183.1419 362.0001 58.5999 58.5999 3433.9442 0.1393 0.1393
12 120 339.6 218.8421 -0.7965 67.5010 223.2083 116.3917 116.3917 13547.0163 0.3427 0.3427
Evaluation
2015 1 121 166 160.3981 5.6019 5.6019 31.3807 0.0337 0.0337
2 122 59.8 80.7592 -20.9592 20.9592 439.2872 0.3505 -0.3505
3 123 128.6 186.2638 -57.6638 57.6638 3325.1084 0.4484 -0.4484
4 124 187.6 400.2517 -212.6517 212.6517 45220.7247 1.1335 -1.1335
5 125 341.4 280.6794 60.7206 60.7206 3686.9883 0.1779 0.1779
6 126 121.8 116.5801 5.2199 5.2199 27.2474 0.0429 0.0429
7 127 239 133.1644 105.8356 105.8356 11201.1653 0.4428 0.4428
8 128 270.2 251.6458 18.5542 18.5542 344.2579 0.0687 0.0687
9 129 224.4 330.5966 -106.1966 106.1966 11277.7281 0.4732 -0.4732
10 130 432.4 338.1949 94.2051 94.2051 8874.6069 0.2179 0.2179
11 131 405.6 393.2223 12.3777 12.3777 153.2076 0.0305 0.0305
12 132 111.8 276.7849 -164.9849 164.9849 27220.0164 1.4757 -1.4757
42
APPENDIX VI
Holt's Winter - Multiplicative
Alpha 0.0001001311 Beta 0.9999999 Gamma 0.433027 MSE 11548.5111

2005 1 1 24.5 0.1017 Model Evaluate
2 2 99.3 0.4121 MAD 83.8557 73.0723
3 3 190.4 0.7901 MSE 11548.5111 8202.4436
4 4 217.9 0.9042 RMSE 107.4640 90.5673
5 5 199.8 0.8291 MAPE 0.4578 0.3860
6 6 227.2 0.9428 MPE -0.1606 -0.1476
7 7 235 0.9752
8 8 137.1 0.5689
9 9 157.4 0.6532
10 10 450.4 1.8690
11 11 401.2 1.6648
12 12 551.6 240.9833 -0.7965 2.2890
2006 1 13 208.8 240.3684 -0.6149 0.4338 24.4190 184.3810 184.3810 33996.3459 0.8831 0.8831
2 14 149.2 239.7657 -0.6027 0.5031 98.7932 50.4068 50.4068 2540.8435 0.3378 0.3378
3 15 181.4 239.1621 -0.6036 0.7764 188.9618 -7.5618 7.5618 57.1807 0.0417 -0.0417
4 16 223.8 238.5593 -0.6027 0.9189 215.7074 8.0926 8.0926 65.4905 0.0362 0.0362
5 17 365.3 237.9769 -0.5825 1.1348 197.2905 168.0095 168.0095 28227.1871 0.4599 0.4599
6 18 209.2 237.3929 -0.5840 0.9161 223.8164 -14.6164 14.6164 213.6380 0.0699 -0.0699
7 19 150.4 236.8006 -0.5923 0.8279 230.9292 -80.5292 80.5292 6484.9483 0.5354 -0.5354
8 20 177.2 236.2159 -0.5847 0.6474 134.3834 42.8166 42.8166 1833.2610 0.2416 0.2416
9 21 291.4 235.6522 -0.5637 0.9058 153.9042 137.4958 137.4958 18905.1062 0.4718 0.4718
10 22 328 235.0826 -0.5696 1.6639 439.3826 -111.3826 111.3826 12406.0750 0.3396 -0.3396
11 23 322 234.5088 -0.5737 1.5385 390.4278 -68.4278 68.4278 4682.3620 0.2125 -0.2125
12 24 170.4 233.9191 -0.5897 1.6132 535.4669 -365.0669 365.0669 133273.8080 2.1424 -2.1424
2007 1 25 110.6 233.3316 -0.5875 0.4512 101.2179 9.3821 9.3821 88.0234 0.0848 0.0848
2 26 117.2 232.7440 -0.5875 0.5033 117.0910 0.1090 0.1090 0.0119 0.0009 0.0009
3 27 252 232.1658 -0.5783 0.9102 180.2477 71.7523 71.7523 5148.3882 0.2847 0.2847
4 28 361.8 231.6037 -0.5620 1.1974 212.8057 148.9943 148.9943 22199.2924 0.4118 0.4118
5 29 223.2 231.0382 -0.5655 1.0617 262.1827 -38.9827 38.9827 1519.6542 0.1747 -0.1747
6 30 280.6 230.4804 -0.5579 1.0466 211.1464 69.4536 69.4536 4823.7980 0.2475 0.2475
7 31 260.6 229.9310 -0.5494 0.9602 190.3587 70.2413 70.2413 4933.8377 0.2695 0.2695
8 32 218.4 229.3924 -0.5386 0.7793 148.5021 69.8979 69.8979 4885.7232 0.3200 0.3200
9 33 220 228.8552 -0.5372 0.9298 207.2935 12.7065 12.7065 161.4559 0.0578 0.0578
10 34 418.4 228.3203 -0.5349 1.7369 379.8893 38.5107 38.5107 1483.0708 0.0920 0.0920
11 35 311.9 227.7830 -0.5374 1.4652 350.4490 -38.5490 38.5490 1486.0217 0.1236 -0.1236
12 36 197.6 227.2351 -0.5479 1.2912 366.5965 -168.9965 168.9965 28559.8254 0.8552 -0.8552
2008 1 37 235.6 226.7169 -0.5183 0.7058 102.2832 133.3168 133.3168 17773.3715 0.5659 0.5659
2 38 120.4 226.1999 -0.5170 0.5158 113.8440 6.5560 6.5560 42.9817 0.0545 0.0545
3 39 408 225.7052 -0.4947 1.2988 205.4217 202.5783 202.5783 41037.9862 0.4965 0.4965
4 40 448.2 225.2255 -0.4798 1.5406 269.6772 178.5228 178.5228 31870.3772 0.3983 0.3983
5 41 248.2 224.7466 -0.4789 1.0802 238.6190 9.5810 9.5810 91.7960 0.0386 0.0386
6 42 284.8 224.2725 -0.4741 1.1433 234.7234 50.0766 50.0766 2507.6653 0.1758 0.1758
7 43 389.8 223.8167 -0.4558 1.2986 214.8907 174.9093 174.9093 30593.2669 0.4487 0.4487
8 44 340.4 223.3823 -0.4344 1.1017 174.0732 166.3268 166.3268 27664.6134 0.4886 0.4886
9 45 330.4 222.9611 -0.4212 1.1689 207.3036 123.0964 123.0964 15152.7237 0.3726 0.3726
10 46 330.2 222.5366 -0.4244 1.6273 386.5276 -56.3276 56.3276 3172.8042 0.1706 -0.1706
11 47 560.2 222.1282 -0.4084 1.9228 325.4450 234.7550 234.7550 55109.8930 0.4191 0.4191
12 48 255.4 221.7175 -0.4108 1.2309 286.2855 -30.8855 30.8855 953.9151 0.1209 -0.1209
2009 1 49 229.4 221.3170 -0.4004 0.8490 156.2019 73.1981 73.1981 5357.9568 0.3191 0.3191
2 50 230.8 220.9393 -0.3777 0.7448 113.9579 116.8421 116.8421 13652.0648 0.5062 0.5062
3 51 345.6 220.5661 -0.3732 1.4149 286.4743 59.1257 59.1257 3495.8470 0.1711 0.1711
4 52 178.6 220.1825 -0.3836 1.2248 339.2393 -160.6393 160.6393 25804.9808 0.8994 -0.8994
5 53 300 219.8047 -0.3778 1.2035 237.4239 62.5761 62.5761 3915.7630 0.2086 0.2086
6 54 193 219.4218 -0.3829 1.0291 250.8708 -57.8708 57.8708 3349.0248 0.2998 -0.2998
7 55 187.6 219.0315 -0.3903 1.1071 284.4368 -96.8368 96.8368 9377.3735 0.5162 -0.5162
8 56 282.3 218.6449 -0.3866 1.1837 240.8832 41.4168 41.4168 1715.3513 0.1467 0.1467
9 57 265.9 218.2593 -0.3857 1.1903 255.1177 10.7823 10.7823 116.2576 0.0406 0.0406
10 58 384.2 217.8754 -0.3838 1.6862 354.5449 29.6551 29.6551 879.4241 0.0772 0.0772
11 59 327 217.4868 -0.3886 1.7413 418.1982 -91.1982 91.1982 8317.1028 0.2789 -0.2789
12 60 126.8 217.0868 -0.4000 0.9508 267.2238 -140.4238 140.4238 19718.8428 1.1074 -1.1074
2010 1 61 146.8 216.6825 -0.4044 0.7747 183.9717 -37.1717 37.1717 1381.7345 0.2532 -0.2532
2 62 153.2 216.2770 -0.4054 0.7290 161.0886 -7.8886 7.8886 62.2292 0.0515 -0.0515
3 63 139.2 215.8598 -0.4172 1.0815 305.4383 -166.2383 166.2383 27635.1660 1.1942 -1.1942
4 64 175.8 215.4354 -0.4244 1.0478 263.8637 -88.0637 88.0637 7755.2228 0.5009 -0.5009
5 65 179.6 215.0044 -0.4310 1.0440 258.7556 -79.1556 79.1556 6265.6019 0.4407 -0.4407
6 66 225.8 214.5739 -0.4305 1.0392 220.8183 4.9817 4.9817 24.8174 0.0221 0.0221
7 67 176.8 214.1379 -0.4360 0.9852 237.0865 -60.2865 60.2865 3634.4630 0.3410 -0.3410
8 68 295.2 213.7055 -0.4324 1.2693 252.9689 42.2311 42.2311 1783.4660 0.1431 0.1431
9 69 285.4 213.2758 -0.4297 1.2543 253.8525 31.5475 31.5475 995.2461 0.1105 0.1105
10 70 100.8 212.8307 -0.4451 1.1611 358.9073 -258.1073 258.1073 66619.3826 2.5606 -2.5606
11 71 352.2 212.3846 -0.4461 1.7053 369.8191 -17.6191 17.6191 310.4340 0.0500 -0.0500
12 72 220.2 211.9405 -0.4441 0.9890 201.5135 18.6865 18.6865 349.1871 0.0849 0.0849
43
APPENDIX VI
2011 1 73 173.6 211.4976 -0.4429 0.7947 163.8554 9.7446 9.7446 94.9580 0.0561 0.0561
2 74 65.4 211.0426 -0.4550 0.5475 153.8650 -88.4650 88.4650 7826.0567 1.3527 -1.3527
3 75 377.2 210.6015 -0.4412 1.3887 227.7416 149.4584 149.4584 22337.8247 0.3962 0.3962
4 76 410 210.1784 -0.4230 1.4388 220.1977 189.8023 189.8023 36024.8942 0.4629 0.4629
5 77 430.2 209.7757 -0.4028 1.4800 218.9944 211.2056 211.2056 44607.8018 0.4909 0.4909
6 78 135.4 209.3650 -0.4107 0.8692 217.5712 -82.1712 82.1712 6752.1028 0.6069 -0.6069
7 79 109.8 208.9445 -0.4205 0.7862 205.8703 -96.0703 96.0703 9229.5033 0.8750 -0.8750
8 80 443.4 208.5382 -0.4064 1.6404 264.6817 178.7183 178.7183 31940.2397 0.4031 0.4031
9 81 240.6 208.1302 -0.4080 1.2117 261.0631 -20.4631 20.4631 418.7376 0.0851 -0.0851
10 82 359.4 207.7324 -0.3978 1.4075 241.1936 118.2064 118.2064 13972.7609 0.3289 0.3289
11 83 388.9 207.3367 -0.3957 1.7791 353.5766 35.3234 35.3234 1247.7442 0.0908 0.0908
12 84 176.2 206.9381 -0.3986 0.9294 204.6618 -28.4618 28.4618 810.0748 0.1615 -0.1615
2012 1 85 213.6 206.5457 -0.3924 0.8984 164.1354 49.4646 49.4646 2446.7483 0.2316 0.2316
2 86 168.6 206.1635 -0.3822 0.6646 112.8752 55.7248 55.7248 3105.2533 0.3305 0.3305
3 87 321.2 205.7839 -0.3796 1.4633 285.7757 35.4243 35.4243 1254.8801 0.1103 0.1103
4 88 324 205.4063 -0.3776 1.4988 295.5291 28.4709 28.4709 810.5917 0.0879 0.0879
5 89 241.8 205.0244 -0.3818 1.3498 303.4386 -61.6386 61.6386 3799.3131 0.2549 -0.2549
6 90 30.2 204.6256 -0.3988 0.5567 177.8794 -147.6794 147.6794 21809.2079 4.8900 -4.8900
7 91 277.6 204.2417 -0.3839 1.0343 160.5549 117.0451 117.0451 13699.5522 0.4216 0.4216
8 92 272.8 203.8540 -0.3877 1.5095 334.4041 -61.6041 61.6041 3795.0608 0.2258 -0.2258
9 93 165.6 203.4597 -0.3944 1.0395 246.5495 -80.9495 80.9495 6552.8144 0.4888 -0.4888
10 94 224.2 203.0609 -0.3988 1.2761 285.8178 -61.6178 61.6178 3796.7564 0.2748 -0.2748
11 95 411.2 202.6650 -0.3959 1.8873 360.5581 50.6419 50.6419 2564.6025 0.1232 0.1232
12 96 210.6 202.2715 -0.3935 0.9778 187.9960 22.6040 22.6040 510.9426 0.1073 0.1073
2013 1 97 242 201.8848 -0.3867 1.0284 181.3644 60.6356 60.6356 3676.6790 0.2506 0.2506
2 98 80.6 201.4901 -0.3947 0.5500 133.9083 -53.3083 53.3083 2841.7700 0.6614 -0.6614
3 99 105.8 201.0825 -0.4076 1.0575 294.2568 -188.4568 188.4568 35515.9606 1.7813 -1.7813
4 100 463.2 200.6857 -0.3968 1.8492 300.7680 162.4320 162.4320 26384.1564 0.3507 0.3507
5 101 191.2 200.2830 -0.4027 1.1787 270.3518 -79.1518 79.1518 6265.0086 0.4140 -0.4140
6 102 121.8 199.8823 -0.4008 0.5795 111.2800 10.5200 10.5200 110.6702 0.0864 0.0864
7 103 170.8 199.4781 -0.4042 0.9572 206.3218 -35.5218 35.5218 1261.7987 0.2080 -0.2080
8 104 150 199.0639 -0.4142 1.1822 300.5085 -150.5085 150.5085 22652.8135 1.0034 -1.0034
9 105 226.8 198.6516 -0.4122 1.0837 206.4917 20.3083 20.3083 412.4269 0.0895 0.0895
10 106 419 198.2524 -0.3992 1.6387 252.9793 166.0207 166.0207 27562.8768 0.3962 0.3962
11 107 343.8 197.8517 -0.4008 1.8225 373.4090 -29.6090 29.6090 876.6938 0.0861 -0.0861
12 108 255.8 197.4573 -0.3943 1.1154 193.0717 62.7283 62.7283 3934.8434 0.2452 0.2452
2014 1 109 91.8 197.0522 -0.4051 0.7848 202.6657 -110.8657 110.8657 12291.2082 1.2077 -1.2077
2 110 33.6 196.6335 -0.4187 0.3858 108.1576 -74.5576 74.5576 5558.8332 2.2190 -2.2190
3 111 136.6 196.2080 -0.4254 0.9010 207.4917 -70.8917 70.8917 5025.6360 0.5190 -0.5190
4 112 391 195.7842 -0.4239 1.9133 362.0477 28.9523 28.9523 838.2345 0.0740 0.0740
5 113 311.4 195.3672 -0.4170 1.3585 230.2701 81.1299 81.1299 6582.0677 0.2605 0.2605
6 114 106.8 194.9491 -0.4180 0.5658 112.9778 -6.1778 6.1778 38.1655 0.0578 -0.0578
7 115 49.8 194.5168 -0.4323 0.6536 186.2027 -136.4027 136.4027 18605.7067 2.7390 -2.7390
8 116 244.6 194.0858 -0.4310 1.2160 229.4393 15.1607 15.1607 229.8456 0.0620 0.0620
9 117 433.4 193.6754 -0.4104 1.5835 209.8716 223.5284 223.5284 49964.9383 0.5158 0.5158
10 118 335.4 193.2662 -0.4092 1.6806 316.7073 18.6927 18.6927 349.4174 0.0557 0.0557
11 119 420.6 192.8608 -0.4054 1.9777 351.4830 69.1170 69.1170 4777.1574 0.1643 0.1643
12 120 339.6 192.4666 -0.3942 1.3964 214.6593 124.9407 124.9407 15610.1890 0.3679 0.3679
Evaluation
2015 1 121 166 150.7433 15.2567 15.2567 232.7671 0.0919 0.0919
2 122 59.8 73.9560 -14.1560 14.1560 200.3917 0.2367 -0.2367
3 123 128.6 172.3529 -43.7529 43.7529 1914.3168 0.3402 -0.3402
4 124 187.6 365.2221 -177.6221 177.6221 31549.6242 0.9468 -0.9468
5 125 341.4 258.7879 82.6121 82.6121 6824.7514 0.2420 0.2420
6 126 121.8 107.5594 14.2406 14.2406 202.7950 0.1169 0.1169
7 127 239 123.9854 115.0146 115.0146 13228.3493 0.4812 0.4812
8 128 270.2 230.2013 39.9987 39.9987 1599.8929 0.1480 0.1480
9 129 224.4 299.1459 -74.7459 74.7459 5586.9518 0.3331 -0.3331
10 130 432.4 316.8338 115.5662 115.5662 13355.5551 0.2673 0.2673
11 131 405.6 372.0609 33.5391 33.5391 1124.8699 0.0827 0.0827
12 132 111.8 262.1631 -150.3631 150.3631 22609.0577 1.3449 -1.3449
44
APPENDIX VII
Best Model Forecast: Holt's Winter - Multiplicative
Alpha 0.0000972103 Beta 0.9999999 Gamma 0.4000847 MSE 11197.4106

2005 1 1 24.5 0.1017 MAD 82.8252
2 2 99.3 0.4121 MSE 11197.4106
3 3 190.4 0.7901 RMSE 105.8178
4 4 217.9 0.9042 MAPE 0.4509
5 5 199.8 0.8291 MPE -0.1570
6 6 227.2 0.9428
7 7 235 0.9752
8 8 137.1 0.5689
9 9 157.4 0.6532
10 10 450.4 1.8690
11 11 401.2 1.6648
12 12 551.6 240.9833 -0.7965 2.2890
2006 1 13 208.8 240.3631 -0.6202 0.4085 24.4190 184.3810 184.3810 33996.3459 0.8831 0.8831
2 14 149.2 239.7548 -0.6083 0.4962 98.7889 50.4111 50.4111 2541.2836 0.3379 0.3379
3 15 181.4 239.1455 -0.6093 0.7775 188.9487 -7.5487 7.5487 56.9824 0.0416 -0.0416
4 16 223.8 238.5371 -0.6084 0.9178 215.6873 8.1127 8.1127 65.8158 0.0362 0.0362
5 17 365.3 237.9484 -0.5887 1.1116 197.2674 168.0326 168.0326 28234.9518 0.4600 0.4600
6 18 209.2 237.3582 -0.5902 0.9182 223.7837 -14.5837 14.5837 212.6829 0.0697 -0.0697
7 19 150.4 236.7600 -0.5982 0.8392 230.8894 -80.4894 80.4894 6478.5364 0.5352 -0.5352
8 20 177.2 236.1691 -0.5909 0.6415 134.3569 42.8431 42.8431 1835.5287 0.2418 0.2418
9 21 291.4 235.5987 -0.5704 0.8867 153.8696 137.5304 137.5304 18914.6100 0.4720 0.4720
10 22 328 235.0225 -0.5762 1.6796 439.2699 -111.2699 111.2699 12380.9887 0.3392 -0.3392
11 23 322 234.4423 -0.5802 1.5483 390.3168 -68.3168 68.3168 4667.1791 0.2122 -0.2122
12 24 170.4 233.8466 -0.5957 1.6647 535.2997 -364.8997 364.8997 133151.7907 2.1414 -2.1414
2007 1 25 110.6 233.2545 -0.5921 0.4348 95.2922 15.3078 15.3078 234.3302 0.1384 0.1384
2 26 117.2 232.6628 -0.5917 0.4992 115.4415 1.7585 1.7585 3.0924 0.0150 0.0150
3 27 252 232.0800 -0.5828 0.9008 180.4280 71.5720 71.5720 5122.5562 0.2840 0.2840
4 28 361.8 231.5131 -0.5670 1.1759 212.4722 149.3278 149.3278 22298.7829 0.4127 0.4127
5 29 223.2 230.9432 -0.5699 1.0535 256.7207 -33.5207 33.5207 1123.6361 0.1502 -0.1502
6 30 280.6 230.3806 -0.5626 1.0382 211.5344 69.0656 69.0656 4770.0612 0.2461 0.2461
7 31 260.6 229.8259 -0.5547 0.9571 192.8566 67.7434 67.7434 4589.1682 0.2600 0.2600
8 32 218.4 229.2820 -0.5439 0.7659 147.0753 71.3247 71.3247 5087.2103 0.3266 0.3266
9 33 220 228.7399 -0.5420 0.9167 202.8182 17.1818 17.1818 295.2131 0.0781 0.0781
10 34 418.4 228.1999 -0.5400 1.7412 383.2834 35.1166 35.1166 1233.1736 0.0839 0.0839
11 35 311.9 227.6574 -0.5425 1.4770 352.4794 -40.5794 40.5794 1646.6889 0.1301 -0.1301
12 36 197.6 227.1043 -0.5531 1.3468 378.0813 -180.4813 180.4813 32573.4834 0.9134 -0.9134
2008 1 37 235.6 226.5819 -0.5224 0.6768 98.5029 137.0971 137.0971 18795.6028 0.5819 0.5819
2 38 120.4 226.0609 -0.5210 0.5126 112.8488 7.5512 7.5512 57.0213 0.0627 0.0627
3 39 408 225.5620 -0.4989 1.2641 203.1755 204.8245 204.8245 41953.0896 0.5020 0.5020
4 40 448.2 225.0784 -0.4837 1.5021 264.6406 183.5594 183.5594 33694.0462 0.4095 0.4095
5 41 248.2 224.5957 -0.4826 1.0742 236.6192 11.5808 11.5808 134.1143 0.0467 0.0467
6 42 284.8 224.1180 -0.4777 1.1312 232.6639 52.1361 52.1361 2718.1728 0.1831 0.1831
7 43 389.8 223.6581 -0.4599 1.2715 214.0435 175.7565 175.7565 30890.3533 0.4509 0.4509
8 44 340.4 223.2198 -0.4384 1.0696 170.9557 169.4443 169.4443 28711.3874 0.4978 0.4978
9 45 330.4 222.7948 -0.4250 1.1433 204.2310 126.1690 126.1690 15918.6192 0.3819 0.3819
10 46 330.2 222.3666 -0.4282 1.6387 387.1837 -56.9837 56.9837 3247.1462 0.1726 -0.1726
11 47 560.2 221.9537 -0.4129 1.8958 327.7951 232.4049 232.4049 54012.0433 0.4149 0.4149
12 48 255.4 221.5377 -0.4160 1.2692 298.3700 -42.9700 42.9700 1846.4244 0.1682 -0.1682
2009 1 49 229.4 221.1332 -0.4045 0.8211 149.6657 79.7343 79.7343 6357.5608 0.3476 0.3476
2 50 230.8 220.7510 -0.3822 0.7258 113.1372 117.6628 117.6628 13844.5319 0.5098 0.5098
3 51 345.6 220.3739 -0.3771 1.3858 278.5697 67.0303 67.0303 4493.0648 0.1940 0.1940
4 52 178.6 219.9870 -0.3869 1.2259 330.4576 -151.8576 151.8576 23060.7427 0.8503 -0.8503
5 53 300 219.6059 -0.3811 1.1910 235.8870 64.1130 64.1130 4110.4714 0.2137 0.2137
6 54 193 219.2201 -0.3858 1.0309 247.9905 -54.9905 54.9905 3023.9595 0.2849 -0.2849
7 55 187.6 218.8273 -0.3927 1.1058 278.2379 -90.6379 90.6379 8215.2327 0.4831 -0.4831
8 56 282.3 218.4390 -0.3883 1.1587 233.6394 48.6606 48.6606 2367.8544 0.1724 0.1724
9 57 265.9 218.0521 -0.3869 1.1737 249.2929 16.6071 16.6071 275.7968 0.0625 0.0625
10 58 384.2 217.6668 -0.3853 1.6892 356.6782 27.5218 27.5218 757.4511 0.0716 0.0716
11 59 327 217.2772 -0.3896 1.7395 411.9327 -84.9327 84.9327 7213.5560 0.2597 -0.2597
12 60 126.8 216.8762 -0.4010 0.9953 275.2739 -148.4739 148.4739 22044.5069 1.1709 -1.1709
2010 1 61 146.8 216.4715 -0.4047 0.7639 177.7462 -30.9462 30.9462 957.6667 0.2108 -0.2108
2 62 153.2 216.0664 -0.4052 0.7191 156.8195 -3.6195 3.6195 13.1007 0.0236 -0.0236
3 63 139.2 215.6500 -0.4164 1.0896 298.8606 -159.6606 159.6606 25491.5220 1.1470 -1.1470
4 64 175.8 215.2267 -0.4233 1.0623 263.8655 -88.0655 88.0655 7755.5376 0.5009 -0.5009
5 65 179.6 214.7971 -0.4296 1.0490 255.8218 -76.2218 76.2218 5809.7567 0.4244 -0.4244
6 66 225.8 214.3680 -0.4291 1.0399 220.9842 4.8158 4.8158 23.1923 0.0213 0.0213
7 67 176.8 213.9337 -0.4344 0.9940 236.5644 -59.7644 59.7644 3571.7817 0.3380 -0.3380
8 68 295.2 213.5033 -0.4303 1.2483 247.3868 47.8132 47.8132 2286.0984 0.1620 0.1620
9 69 285.4 213.0759 -0.4274 1.2400 250.0939 35.3061 35.3061 1246.5241 0.1237 0.1237
10 70 100.8 212.6336 -0.4423 1.2031 359.2137 -258.4137 258.4137 66777.6154 2.5636 -2.5636
11 71 352.2 212.1904 -0.4432 1.7076 369.1007 -16.9007 16.9007 285.6334 0.0480 -0.0480
12 72 220.2 211.7481 -0.4423 1.0132 210.7580 9.4420 9.4420 89.1511 0.0429 0.0429
45
APPENDIX VII
2011 1 73 173.6 211.3073 -0.4408 0.7870 161.4171 12.1829 12.1829 148.4224 0.0702 0.0702
2 74 65.4 210.8549 -0.4524 0.5555 151.6320 -86.2320 86.2320 7435.9606 1.3185 -1.3185
3 75 377.2 210.4157 -0.4392 1.3709 229.2558 147.9442 147.9442 21887.4984 0.3922 0.3922
4 76 410 209.9935 -0.4221 1.4184 223.0496 186.9504 186.9504 34950.4615 0.4560 0.4560
5 77 430.2 209.5909 -0.4026 1.4505 219.8404 210.3596 210.3596 44251.1694 0.4890 0.4890
6 78 135.4 209.1806 -0.4103 0.8828 217.5250 -82.1250 82.1250 6744.5198 0.6065 -0.6065
7 79 109.8 208.7608 -0.4199 0.8067 207.5177 -97.7177 97.7177 9548.7501 0.8900 -0.8900
8 80 443.4 208.3552 -0.4056 1.6003 260.0746 183.3254 183.3254 33608.1922 0.4135 0.4135
9 81 240.6 207.9483 -0.4069 1.2068 257.8646 -17.2646 17.2646 298.0655 0.0718 -0.0718
10 82 359.4 207.5502 -0.3981 1.4145 249.6849 109.7151 109.7151 12037.4065 0.3053 0.3053
11 83 388.9 207.1541 -0.3961 1.7755 353.7346 35.1654 35.1654 1236.6033 0.0904 0.0904
12 84 176.2 206.7549 -0.3993 0.9488 209.4804 -33.2804 33.2804 1107.5883 0.1889 -0.1889
2012 1 85 213.6 206.3619 -0.3929 0.8862 162.3952 51.2048 51.2048 2621.9319 0.2397 0.2397
2 86 168.6 205.9785 -0.3835 0.6607 114.4128 54.1872 54.1872 2936.2485 0.3214 0.3214
3 87 321.2 205.5978 -0.3807 1.4475 281.8461 39.3539 39.3539 1548.7275 0.1225 0.1225
4 88 324 205.2194 -0.3784 1.4826 291.0816 32.9184 32.9184 1083.6185 0.1016 0.1016
5 89 241.8 204.8373 -0.3821 1.3425 297.1245 -55.3245 55.3245 3060.8031 0.2288 -0.2288
6 90 30.2 204.4386 -0.3987 0.5887 180.4917 -150.2917 150.2917 22587.5934 4.9765 -4.9765
7 91 277.6 204.0536 -0.3850 1.0283 164.6082 112.9918 112.9918 12767.1511 0.4070 0.4070
8 92 272.8 203.6653 -0.3883 1.4959 325.9310 -53.1310 53.1310 2822.9011 0.1948 -0.1948
9 93 165.6 203.2706 -0.3947 1.0499 245.3190 -79.7190 79.7190 6355.1148 0.4814 -0.4814
10 94 224.2 202.8716 -0.3990 1.2907 286.9747 -62.7747 62.7747 3940.6686 0.2800 -0.2800
11 95 411.2 202.4754 -0.3962 1.8777 359.4937 51.7063 51.7063 2673.5404 0.1257 0.1257
12 96 210.6 202.0812 -0.3942 0.9861 191.7274 18.8726 18.8726 356.1740 0.0896 0.0896
2013 1 97 242 201.6939 -0.3873 1.0117 178.7413 63.2587 63.2587 4001.6587 0.2614 0.2614
2 98 80.6 201.2989 -0.3950 0.5566 133.0086 -52.4086 52.4086 2746.6628 0.6502 -0.6502
3 99 105.8 200.8914 -0.4074 1.0791 290.7990 -184.9990 184.9990 34224.6377 1.7486 -1.7486
4 100 463.2 200.4949 -0.3966 1.8137 297.2331 165.9669 165.9669 27545.0222 0.3583 0.3583
5 101 191.2 200.0927 -0.4022 1.1877 268.6249 -77.4249 77.4249 5994.6130 0.4049 -0.4049
6 102 121.8 199.6913 -0.4015 0.5972 117.5583 4.2417 4.2417 17.9920 0.0348 0.0348
7 103 170.8 199.2866 -0.4047 0.9598 204.9226 -34.1226 34.1226 1164.3529 0.1998 -0.1998
8 104 150 198.8723 -0.4143 1.1992 297.5152 -147.5152 147.5152 21760.7437 0.9834 -0.9834
9 105 226.8 198.4597 -0.4126 1.0871 208.3671 18.4329 18.4329 339.7731 0.0813 0.0813
10 106 419 198.0595 -0.4003 1.6207 255.6287 163.3713 163.3713 26690.1840 0.3899 0.3899
11 107 343.8 197.6578 -0.4017 1.8223 371.1402 -27.3402 27.3402 747.4888 0.0795 -0.0795
12 108 255.8 197.2621 -0.3956 1.1104 194.5210 61.2790 61.2790 3755.1218 0.2396 0.2396
2014 1 109 91.8 196.8562 -0.4060 0.7935 199.1700 -107.3700 107.3700 11528.3086 1.1696 -1.1696
2 110 33.6 196.4370 -0.4192 0.4023 109.3390 -75.7390 75.7390 5736.4011 2.2541 -2.2541
3 111 136.6 196.0111 -0.4259 0.9262 211.5140 -74.9140 74.9140 5612.1113 0.5484 -0.5484
4 112 391 195.5871 -0.4240 1.8879 354.7386 36.2614 36.2614 1314.8889 0.0927 0.0927
5 113 311.4 195.1696 -0.4175 1.3508 231.7891 79.6109 79.6109 6337.8997 0.2557 0.2557
6 114 106.8 194.7506 -0.4190 0.5777 116.3059 -9.5059 9.5059 90.3628 0.0890 -0.0890
7 115 49.8 194.3177 -0.4329 0.6783 186.5130 -136.7130 136.7130 18690.4514 2.7452 -2.7452
8 116 244.6 193.8858 -0.4319 1.2242 232.5071 12.0929 12.0929 146.2390 0.0494 0.0494
9 117 433.4 193.4739 -0.4119 1.5484 210.3011 223.0989 223.0989 49773.1001 0.5148 0.5148
10 118 335.4 193.0633 -0.4106 1.6673 312.9010 22.4990 22.4990 506.2066 0.0671 0.0671
11 119 420.6 192.6564 -0.4069 1.9667 351.0793 69.5207 69.5207 4833.1324 0.1653 0.1653
12 120 339.6 192.2606 -0.3958 1.3728 213.4753 126.1247 126.1247 15907.4405 0.3714 0.3714
2015 1 121 166 191.8664 -0.3942 0.8222 152.2459 13.7541 13.7541 189.1761 0.0829 0.0829
2 122 59.8 191.4681 -0.3983 0.3663 77.0351 -17.2351 17.2351 297.0494 0.2882 -0.2882
3 123 128.6 191.0647 -0.4034 0.8249 176.9613 -48.3613 48.3613 2338.8133 0.3761 -0.3761
4 124 187.6 190.6524 -0.4123 1.5263 359.9490 -172.3490 172.3490 29704.1828 0.9187 -0.9187
5 125 341.4 190.2462 -0.4062 1.5284 256.9859 84.4141 84.4141 7125.7385 0.2473 0.2473
6 126 121.8 189.8421 -0.4042 0.6032 109.6655 12.1345 12.1345 147.2456 0.0996 0.0996
7 127 239 189.4538 -0.3883 0.9116 128.4982 110.5018 110.5018 12210.6376 0.4624 0.4624
8 128 270.2 189.0685 -0.3852 1.3062 231.4451 38.7549 38.7549 1501.9415 0.1434 0.1434
9 129 224.4 188.6790 -0.3895 1.4047 292.1549 -67.7549 67.7549 4590.7290 0.3019 -0.3019
10 130 432.4 188.2964 -0.3826 1.9190 313.9443 118.4557 118.4557 14031.7509 0.2739 0.2739
11 131 405.6 187.9156 -0.3808 2.0434 369.5703 36.0297 36.0297 1298.1358 0.0888 0.0888
12 132 111.8 187.5245 -0.3911 1.0621 257.4556 -145.6556 145.6556 21215.5396 1.3028 -1.3028
2016 1 133 153.8581
2 134 153.5365
3 135 68.2642
4 136 153.3990
5 137 283.2260
6 138 283.0173
7 139 111.4714
8 140 168.1035
9 141 240.3382
10 142 257.9273
11 143 351.6060
12 144 373.5976
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SQQS3163 FORECASTING METHOD

SECOND SEMESTER SESSION 2016/2017 (A162)

MATRIC. NO. NAME

UUM COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES

Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................... i

1.1 Overview of the study

1.2 Problem statement

1.3 Objective of the study

i. To identify the pattern of the rainfall amount of Cameron Highland.

3.1 Pattern of Data

3.2.1 Additive Decomposition Method

CMA9 = (260.5000 + 259.7500) / 2

Sn7 - 7 = 235.0 - 248.6625 = - 13.6625

Sn8 - 8 = 137.1 - 258.4208 = - 121.3208

Sn9 - 9 = 157.4 - 260.1250 = - 102.7250

Step 6: Compute Snt through normalization for modelling (n1).

Normalization = 1.6639 / 12 = 0.1387

Seasonal Estimates, Snt = averaged seasonal estimated - Normalization

Sn1 = -66.9481 0.1387 = -67.0868 Sn7 = -33.0569 0.1387 = -33.1956

Sn2 = -125.8329 0.1387 = -125.9715 Sn8 = 6.7579 0.1387 = 6.6192

Sn3 = -0.0528 0.1387 = -0.1914 Sn9 = -7.500 0.1387 = -7.6387

Sn4 = 78.0241 0.1387 = 77.8854 Sn10 = 84.2921 0.1387 = 84.1535

Sn5 = 24.5222 0.1387 = 24.3836 Sn11 = 127.8407 0.1387 = 127.7021

Sn6 = -74.9528 0.1387 = -75.0914 Sn12 = -11.4296 0.1387 = -11.5683

d1 = 24.5 (-67.0806) = 91.5868

d2 = 99.3 (-125.9715) = 225.2715

d3 = 190.4 (-0.1914) = 190.5914

Model Summary and Parameter Estimates

Tr1 = 183.524 + 5.893 (1) 0.110 (1)2 + 0.001 (1)3 = 189.3080

Tr2 = 183.524 + 5.893 (2) 0.110 (2)2 + 0.001 (2)3 = 194.8780

Tr3 = 183.524 + 5.893 (3) 0.110 (3)2 + 0.001 (3)3 = 200.2400

Step 9: Calculate the forecast value for modelling (n1).

Y1 = -67.0868 + 189.3080 = 122.2212

Y2 = -125.9715 + 194.8780 = 68.9065

Y3 = -0.1914 + 200.2400 = 200.0486

d121 = 166 (67.0806) = 233.0868

d122 = 59.8 (-125.9715) = 185.7715

d123 = 128.6 (-0.1914) = 128.7914

Tr121= 183.524 + 5.893 (121) 0.110 (121)2 + 0.001 (121)3 = 1057.6280

Tr122 = 183.524 + 5.893 (122) 0.110 (122)2 + 0.001 (122)3 = 1081.0780

Tr123 = 183.524 + 5.893 (123) 0.110 (123)2 + 0.001 (123)3 = 1105.0400

Y1 = -67.0868 + 189.3080 = 122.2212

Y2 = -125.9715 + 194.8780 = 68.9065

Y3 = -0.1914 + 200.2400 = 200.0486

Sn7 7 = 235.0 / 248.6625 = 0.9451

Sn8 8 = 137.1 / 258.4208 = 0.5305

Sn9 9 = 157.4 / 260.1250 = 0.6051

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12

Step 6: Compute Snt through normalization for modelling (n1).

Normalization = 12 / 11.9761 = 1.0020

Seasonal Estimates, Snt = averaged seasonal estimated x Normalization

Sn1 = (0.7262) (1.0020) = 0.7277 Sn7 = (0.8606) (1.0020) = 0.8623

Sn2 = (0.4888) (1.0020) = 0.4898 Sn8 = (1.0239) (1.0020) = 1.0259

Sn3 = (0.9734) (1.0020) = 0.9753 Sn9 = (0.9851) (1.0020) = 0.9871

Sn4 = (1.3221) (1.0020) = 1.3247 Sn10 = (1.3454) (1.0020) = 1.3481

Sn5 = (1.0930) (1.0020) = 1.0952 Sn11 = (1.5087) (1.0020) = 1.5118

Sn6 = (0.7024) (1.0020) = 0.7038 Sn12 = (0.9464) (1.0020) = 0.9483

d1 = (24.5 / 0.7277) = 33.6679