April 18, 2017

Bo co phn tch ln u
Tp on Xng Du Vit Nam (PLX)

Khuyn ngh nh gi
Gi mc tiu 47,556 53,897 VND Chng ti cho rng gi hp l cho mi c phiu PLX vo khong
Gi nim yt 43,200 VND 47,556 VND 53,897 VND/cp. BSC d bo tp on c th t
Ngy nim yt 21/4/2017 158,149 t ng doanh thu (+28.5% yoy) v LNTT l 5,539 t
ng (-12.1% yoy) trong nm 2017. Theo , EPS 2017 d bo
D liu th trng t mc 3,170VND/cp.
S lng CP lu 1,293 im nhn u t
hnh (tr cp)
Gi vng v th u ngnh trong mng phn phi xng du
Vn ha ( t ) 55,857
Free float (tr cp) 53.6 Hot ng ct li chu nh hng bin ng gi du nh
c ch li nhun nh mc
C cu c ng K vng dch v gia tng trong di hn
B Cng Thng 75.87% S h tr ca c ng chin lc JX Nippon Oil & Energy
JP Nippon Oil & 8.0% Ci thin hiu qu hot ng cc cng ty con cng ty lin kt
Energy Tng trng ca ngnh phn phi xng du Vit Nam
PLX ( cp qu) 11.9% Ri ro u t
Free float 4.14%
Ri ro chnh sch nh hng trc tip n hot ng kinh
doanh ct li; bin ng ngun cung nm 2018
Th phn ngy cng thu hp
Ri ro lin quan n u t ngoi ngnh khng hiu qu
Ri ro t gi v gi du
Tng quan v cng ty: Tp on Xng
T VND 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
du Vit Nam l n v nhp khu,
DTT 146,950 123,127 158,189 177,726
phn phi v bn l cc sn phm
du m ln nht Vit Nam, vi th % tng trng yoy -30.7% -16.2% 28.5% 12.4%
phn phn phi t 48% trong nm Tng ti sn 50,414 54,238 62,697 67,008
Vn ch s hu 16,291 23,204 27,694 28,333
2016. Tp on Xng du Vit Nam
Vn iu l (t ) 10,700 12,939 12,939 12,939
s chnh thc nim yt trn HoSE
LN thun (t ) 670 686 623 659
vo ngy 21/4/2017, vi gi khi
Bin LN thun 0.46% 0.56% 0.39% 0.37%
im 43,200 VND/cp
LN sau thu 3,058 5,166 4,542 4,807
% yoy 69.0% -12.1% 5.8%
EPS (VND/cp) 2,546 3,606 3,170 3,355
ROE 16.7% 23.6% 16.1% 15.5%
Chuyn vin phn tch
ROA 5.4% 8.9% 7.0% 6.7%
ROS 2.1% 4.2% 2.9% 2.7%
Nguyn Bo Hong l Ngun: BSC Research
lenbh@bsc,com.vn

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Tp on Xng du Vit Nam - PLX.

IM NHN U T
Chng ti cho rng gi hp l cho mi c phiu PLX vo khong 47,556 VND 53,897 VND/cp. Da trn cc
yu t sau:
Th phn ca Petrolimex c gi vng mc 48% trong nm 2016, cao gp i
n v th 2 l PV Oil vi 22%. Tp on s hu 2400 ca hng, 4,000 i l v
sc cha hn 1.7 triu m3 xng du.

Li th t quy Hot ng ct li c qun l bng hnh thc li nhun nh mc 300 VND/lit,

m ti sn v v gip kt qu kinh doanh khng chu nh hng ca gi du. Trong nm 2016 v
th u ngnh 2017, Petrolimex c nhng li th quan trng trong vic ch ng iu chnh
ngun cung mang v mc li nhun cao hn li nhun nh mc. T 2017,
Nh my lc du Dung Qut khng cn chu p thu thu iu tit d kin cng s
gip PLX c th m phn c mc chit khu tt, gip nng cao li nhun ln
trn mc nh mc.

Petrolimex t mc tiu tng trng dch v gia tng t chui ca hng hin thi,
K vng m
y cng l xu hng chung ca cc nh phn phi xng du cc quc gia pht
rng tng
trin trn th gii
trng trong
di hn
S tham gia ca JX Nippon Oil & Energy ko theo k vng cho nh my lc du
Nam Vn Phong, l d n c hp tc chin lc vi JX Nippon t nm 2014

Nhiu iu kin Petrolimex c h thng cng ty con v cng ty lin kt hin ang dn u trong
tng trng cc nhiu lnh vc, bao gm Nhin liu bay, hot ng vn ti ng thu, hot ng
hot ng khc ha du, Bo him, Ngn hng Vi s tr gip ca tp on, cng nhng li th
v tng trng chung ca nn kinh t, hu ht cc mng kinh doanh ca
Petrolimex u c trin vng kh quan.

Tiu th xng du Vit Nam ang tng trng nhanh nht khu vc, v sc tng
Th trng Vit trng k vng c duy tr mc 4.5% cho giai on 2021-2050, theo n
Nam tim nng
Quy hoch tng th pht trin ngnh Du kh

Do c th kinh doanh, Petrolimex c nhng ri ro lin quan n chnh sch quyt

nh gi bn, ri ro cnh tranh khi th trng c s tham gia ca doanh nghip
Ri ro u t nc ngoi, cng vi ri ro t gi v gi du. Tp on cng ang c mt khon
ln tin u t ngoi ngnh phi gii quyt, c th dn n nhiu bin ng trong
KQKD.

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Tng quan doanh nghip Tp on xng du Vit Nam

Tp on xng du Vit Nam (Petrolimex) c thnh lp t nm 1996, v n nay hin
ang l n v kinh doanh xng du ln nht ton quc. Sn lng phn phi vo khong
11.5 triu m3 tn vo nm 2016, chim th phn khong 48%. Cc mt hng ch yu c
phn phi qua Tp on l xng, du Diezen (DO), du ha, FO, cc sn phm ha du v
kh gas ha lng (LPG). Trong , cc sn phm xng du trng yu c phn phi qua
Tp on m, cn cc sn phm khc c phn phi bi cc cng ty con: PA, PG Tanker,
PGC, PLC.

M hnh kinh doanh ca PLX

Vn chuyn Phn phi Ngi tiu

Nh cung cp dng
VTO PLX (xng du)
Nhp khu VIPCO PGC (LPG) 50 tnh thnh
Nh my lc du Du nhn (PLC) ton quc
Dung Qut

Ngun: Petrolimex, BSC Research

Do m hnh Tp on, vi hn 46 i l, 20 cng ty con v 3 cng ty lin kt, hot ng

kinh doanh ca Petrolimex rt a dng v phc tp. Tuy vy, c ng gp ng k nht
ln kt qu kinh doanh, v s c ch trng phn tch trong bo co chng ti s c (1)
Kinh doanh xng du; (2) Vn ti v (3) Ha du. Vi mc ng gp li nhun ln lt l
62%, 9% v 5% cho li nhun trc thu 1H2016.

C cu LNTT
C cu doanh thu Khc
CT lin kt
10% 6%
Ni b
Khc Ti chnh
-13%
5% 5%
Vn ti
Bo 5%
him Vn ti
2% LPG 9%
Khi XD Xng du
2% Bo him 62%
thnh vin
1%
71%
LPG Ha du
2% 5%

Ngun: Petrolimex, BSC Research

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Giai on 2011-2016, KQKD ca Tp on c nhiu bin ng, c bit l trong giai on

2014-2016, vi din bin doanh thu gim manh CAGR = -23.8%, trong khi li nhun thun
tng mnh ln gp 25 ln. Doanh thu i xung dui nh hng ca gi du, trong khi li
nhun ci thin mnh m nh nhng quy nh chnh sch lin quan n gi bn xng du.
Bin li nhun thun ci thin mnh t mc 0.1% nm 2014 ln 4.4% trong nm 2016.

KQKD 2012-2016
250 6.0%
Nghn t ng

5.0%
200

4.0%
150
3.0%
100
2.0%

50
1.0%

0 0.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Doanh thu Bin LNT ( loi tr ti chnh) Bin LNTT

Ring trong nm 2016, Tp on ghi nhn doanh thu st gim 17% yoy trong khi li nhun
tng trng 68% yoy. Tng trng li nhun ng gp phn ln bi din bin thun li ca
t gi. Tnh hnh t gi thun li trong 2016 gip cng ty tit kim c 800 t so vi 2015.
Nu loi tr nh hng ca chi ph ti chnh, tng trng li nhun t hot ng ct li
ca PLX trong nm 2016 ch t 9.5% yoy.

Ring i vi hot ng phn phi xng du, sn lng phn phi trong nm 2016 t 8.3
triu m3/tn, tng 5.9% yoy v chim 48% th phn ni a. Tng trng tiu th qua h
thng ca Petrolimex thp hn so vi mc ca ton th trng vo khong 13%.

Li nhun t hot ng xng du t 3.848 t ng, tng 12.4% so vi cng k v ng gp

ti 61% tng li nhun trc thu ca Petrolimex. Hot ng kinh doanh ct li c nhiu
thun li trong nm 2016, ng gp ln nh thay i v chnh sch thu nhp khu (theo
FTA Hn Quc Vit Nam). Theo , bin li nhun gp t hot ng xng du tng mnh
t 3.5% ln 5.6%, gip li nhun gi tng trng mc d doanh thu gim st di nh
hng ca gi bn.

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TP ON XNG DU VIT NAM

im nhn u t 1: Phn phi xng du Gi vng v th u ngnh
Petrolimex ang l doanh nghip dn u trong h thng phn phi xng du ton quc.
Nh vic xm nhp th trng sm, Petrolimex c v th ln trong th trng phn phi
xng du vi hn 2400 im bn trn ton quc. Tp on c nhng im bn v tr c
a trong tt c 63 thnh ph trn ton quc l im quan trng nht cho cht lng h
thng phn phi.

Petrolimex bn ra 11.5 triu tn/m3 trong nm 2016, tng trng 8.4% so vi cng k.
Trong , th trng ng gp trng yu vo li nhun ca Tp on, l th trng ni a
t mc tng 5.9%. Th trng ti xut gn nh ch ng gp ph dch v v ng gp khng
ng k trong li nhun. Th trng ni a ca Petrolimex tng trng tt trong 2 nm
2015 v 2016, sau mt giai on 2012-2014 lin tc gim do tng trng kinh t chng li.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Tng sn lng 9,320,000 8,930,000 9,216,001 8,743,423 9,319,561 9,833,571 10,661,923 11,552,603
Bn ni a 7,430,000 7,620,000 7,856,667 7,531,128 7,377,375 7,010,877 7,881,449 8,344,902
% yoy 2.6% 3.1% -4.1% -2.0% -5.0% 12.4% 5.9%
Ti xut 1,890,000 1,310,000 1,359,334 1,212,295 1,942,186 1,822,694 2,780,474 3,207,701
% yoy -30.7% 3.8% -10.8% 60.2% 45.3% -1.5% 15.4%

Trong nhng nm va qua, so vi PV Oil, Petrolimex c s ch ng tt hn trong u vo

sn phm. Vic c cp 50% sn lng kim ngch nhp khu mang li s linh hot v
ngun nhp khu, v la chn gia sn phm trong nc v gia cc nc nhp khu. in
hnh trong nm 2016, khi c chnh lch gia mc thu nhp khu t Hn Quc (10%) v
mc thu p dng xc nh gi bn ra theo MFN (20%), Petrolimex tng cng vic
nhp khu t Hn Quc, qua lm tng bin li nhun ln mc cao nht trong lch s
(4.4%).

So snh PV Oil Petrolimex Thalexim Saigon Petro Mipe Corp

S lng ca 502 ca hng 2400 ca hng 80 ca hng 10 ca hng 93 ca hng

hng 3000 i l 4000 i l 820 i l 1000 a l 573 i l

Sc cha 900,000 m3 1,700,000 m3 36,000 260,000

Petrolimex c 3 knh phn phi xng du ni a, bao gm

(1) Bn l qua 2400 trm xng ~ 58% sn lng

(2) Bn bun qua 4,000 i l ~ 31% sn lng
(3) Phn phi trc tip cho cc cng ty than v in ln ~ 11% sn lng

im nhn u t 2: Hot ng ct li n nh C ch li nhun nh mc

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Trong giai on 2012-2016, bin li nhun t hot ng xng du ca Petrolimex lin

tc c ci thin qua tng nm. S ci thin ny n t mt s yu t sau

(1) Li nhun nh mc 300 VND/lit. Vi cch kim sot theo li nhun nh mc, ngha l
li nhun ca doanh nghip khng thay i theo gi du, theo gi du xung thp
tng ng vi vic bin li nhun tng ln. BSC lu vi c ch gi xng du nh
vy, ch s c ngha hn l mc li nhun cho mi lt xng du bn ra, do con s ny
c tnh c lp cao.

Mc d vy, cc doanh nghip u mi xng du b quy nh tch tr ngun cung ti

thiu, v thng khin gi u vo c tr khong 30 ngy so vi gi xng du ca
khu vc. Ngc li, gi u ra hin ang c tr 15 ngy so vi gi xng du nhp
khu. Theo , vi gi u vo s tr hn gi u ra khong 15 ngy, dn ti cc doanh
nghip u mi xng du s hng li nu nh gi du i theo xu hng tng nh.

So vi 2015, gi du din bin thun li trong 2016, vi xu hng tng gi n nh gip

doanh nghip ci thin bin li nhun ln mc 11.7% t mc 8.6% cho 2015. Theo ,
xu hng gi du trung bnh 15 ngy i ngang v gim nh trong qu 1/2017, l xu
hng km thun li hn so vi nm 2016.

Din bin gi du - MA 2 tun

120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12

2014 2015 2016 2017

Ngun: BSC Research

(2) Petrolimex c th c hng li t li th m phn vi Dung Qut trong nm 2017
Thu nhp khu xng du v cc chnh sch lin quan n gi bn c thay i mnh
trong giai on 2015 nay. S khc bit ln v mc thu nhp khu gia cc ngun
xng du dn n s tp trung vo mt s ngun cung cp c mc thu sut thp
mang li li nhun cho doanh nghip phn phi. Cho nm 2016, li ch chnh lch thu
trung bnh c tnh mc 2.38% cho xng v 0.34% cho du diesel.

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Trc T12/2015: Thu t

tt c cc ngun nhp 21/3/2016: thu nhp 1/1/2017: Bi b thu
khu l 20%; thu thu khu l bnh qun gia iu tit cho Dung
iu tit t Dung Qut l truyn thay v MFN => Qut =>Dung qut
13%; Thu p dng C tr gia thu hng li chnh lch
tnh gi bn l MFN = thc t v thu c 10% v thu so vi
20% tnh trong gi bn cc ngun nhp khu

T12/2015: Thu nhp T9/2016: Thu t

khu t Hn Quc l Dung Qut c gim
10% => Cc u mi v 10%, ngang bng
nhp khu gia tng vi thu nk t Hn
nhp khu t Hn Quc
Quc

Ngun cung cp xng trong 2017 s n t (1) Dung Qut v (2) Hn Quc, do chnh lch
v thu nhp khu xng qu ln gia cc ngun cung. T 1/1/2017, Dung Qut c bi
b vic thu iu tit ( 10% trong qu 4/2016); theo Dung Qut c ch ng iu
chnh gi bn c c mc gi cnh tranh i vi cc mt hng nhp khu.

Gi bn trung bnh gia Cc ngun nhp

Q2 2017 Hn Quc Dung Qut
cc ngun nhp khu khu cn li

Xng 10.21% 10% 0% 20%

Du Diesel 1.18% 5% 0% 0% (Asean)

Mazut 2.26% 0% 0% 0% (Asean)

Mc thu p dng tnh gi bn l 10.36% cho 1Q2017 v 10.21% cho 2Q2017, cho thy
phn ln ngun nhp khu xng l t Hn Quc ( c mc thu 10%) v ngun nhp khu
t cc quc gia khc l khng ng k.

Trong nm 2017, Dung Qut c li th ln khi khng chu thu nhp khu, v theo c
iu chnh gi bn qua hnh thc chit khu thng mi v gim gi bn cho cc doanh
nghip phn phi. Theo , Petrolimex vi cng v l nh phn phi chim ti 48% sn
lng xng du t Dung Qut,s c kh nng m phn c mc chit khu tt v mang
v li nhun cao hn mc nh mc p dng chung cho th trng. Tuy nhin mc chit
khu c th s thp hn so vi mc chnh lch thu c hng li trong 2016.

im nhn u t 3: K vng t dch v gia tng trong di hn

Trong cuc gp g vi cc nh u t t chc, CT HQT ca Petrolimex chia s mc tiu
lm tng phn dch v gia tng t chui ca hng. Tp on t mc tiu doanh thu t
xng du trn mi ca hng s ch chim 50%, cn li l cc hot ng khc, k vng vo
s tng trng quy m doanh thu ln hn gp i.

nh hng kt hp cc dch v gia tng c p dng rng ri cc quc gia trn th

gii. Theo , cc ca hng xng du s kt hp vi cc ca hng tin li, n nhanh

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thc y tiu dng ca khch hng. Theo thng k cc quc gia pht trin, th t l
doanh thu gia tng s chim t 50-70% trn mi ca hng, l c s cho mc tiu ca
Petrolimex. Tuy nhin, chng ti lu tim nng tng doanh thu s n t tng lai rt di
hn. Nu ngoi tr cc quc gia pht trin, th cc quc gia khc trong khu vc ng
Nam u cha thc s y mnh c hot ng bn hng gia tng cng vi chui ca
hng xng du. BSC so snh mt s tp on xng du ln trong khu vc N, nh Petronas
( Malaysia); PTG ( Thailand); v Pertamia (Myanmar) v thy t l doanh thu ph tr l rt
thp, giao ng t mc 0.7% n 1.6% doanh thu t bn l xng du, mc d thi gian
trin khai cc dch v cng c khong 5 10 nm. Theo , BSC cho rng mc d vic
m rng sn phm v dch v phn phi ngoi xng du l xu hng tt yu ca ngnh,
nhng thi gian thc hin c th ng gp ng k ln tng trng ca doanh nghip
cn kh xa.

im nhn u t 4: S h tr ca c ng chin lc JX Nippon Oil & Energy

JP Nippon Oil & Energy (JXE) l tp on nng lng s 1 Nht Bn. Tp on c thnh
lp t 1988, vi hot ng kinh doanh tri di t thng ngun n h ngun du kh. Tp
on ny hin ang s hu 7 nh my lc du, phn phi khong 50% th phn ca Nht
bn vi hn 10,000 trm xng tri di quc gia ny.

JX Nippon Oil & Energy mua 103.5 triu c phiu PLX, tng ng vi 8% c phn ca
tp on vo thng 4/2017, vi mc gi 39,017 VND/cp. Theo , JP Nippon tr thnh
i tc chin lc, h tr trc mt v cng ngh thit lp h thng phn phi xng du.
Bn cnh , s tham gia ca JX Nippon cng ko theo k vng cho nh my lc du Nam
Vn Phong d n lc du ln c cng sut khong 10 triu tn/nm. JX Nippon c hp
tc chin lc vi Petrolimex cho d n ny t cui 2014, tuy nhin cho ti nay vn cha
c thng tin v thi im khi cng.

im nhn u t 5: Cc hot ng khc nhiu iu kin tng trng

Cc hot ng kinh doanh khc ng gp khong 40% li nhun trc thu ca Petrolimex
trong nm 2016 v u c mc trng tt so vi cng k. Thuc chui gi tr xng du v
hng li t nhng iu kin th trng, chng ti k vng cc hot ng kinh doanh ny
s ng gp ng k ln tng trng ca doanh nghip trong thi gian ti.

Nhin liu bay

Hot ng qua cng ty con l CTCP Nhin liu bay Petrolimex (PA), vi Petrolimex ng
gp 59% vn ch s hu. PA bn nhin liu my bay ti cc hng khng ni a quan trng
bao gm Ni Bi, Tn Sn Nht, Nng, Cam Ranh v Ct Bi.

Trong nm 2016, Petrolimex Aviation cung cp cho hn 71.000 chuyn bay; m rng
cung cp nhin liu bay ti Cng HKQT Ct Bi. Sn lng bn ra t trn 600.000 m3 Jet A-
1, tng 22% so vi nm 2015.

Hiu qu kinh doanh ci thin t 2015, vi mc li nhun 287 t ng trong 2015 v 368
t ng trong nm 2016 (+28.2%).

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Nm 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Doanh thu 71,610 86,312 58,034 32,850
LNG 287 202 (142) 761
LNTT 107 6 (469) 287 368

Tng ti sn 5,868 9,333 6,426 5,111

VCSH 599 575 (111) (875)

Th trng cung cp nhin liu bay Vit Nam rt tp trung vi 2 tn tui l Petrolimex
Aviation (PA) v CT Xng du hng khng Vinapco ca Vietnam Airlines. PA ang cung cp
100% nhin liu cho cc chuyn bay ca Vietjet, v hng li t s tng trng nhanh
chng khong 50%/nm ca Vietjet trong giai on 2013-2016. Nhng yu cu kht khe
v c s h tng, yu cu k thut v vn u t l ro cn gia nhp ngnh ln v gi mi
trng cnh tranh trong lnh vc xng du mc thp.

Chng ti cho rng trin vng ca PA l kh quan trong giai on ti, c hng li t
sc tng trng chung ca ngnh hng khng, c bit s tng trng nhanh ca Vietjet.
Bn cnh , vic Petrolimex c phn ha cng k vng s nng cao hiu qu hot ng
ca PA.

Hot ng vn ti

Hot ng vn ti ng gp ch yu t cng ty con l TP ON Vn ti thy Petrolimex

(PG Tanker), hot ng trong lnh vc vn ti xng du. PG Tanker qun l cc cng ty con
bao gm CTCP Vn ti Xng du VIPCO, CTCP Vn ti Xng du VITACO, CTCP Vn ti v
dch v Petrolimex Hi Phng v CTCP Vn ti Xng du ng Thy PJTACO. Hot ng
vn ti ng gp 6.1% li nhun hp nht trong nm 2016

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Doanh thu 7,711 8,522 8,355 6,919
LNG 596.7 596.7 622 799
LNTT 352 319 339 439 383

PG Tanker l n v s hu i tu ch du ln nht ti Vit Nam, qun l i tu vn ti

vin dng vi tng trng ti trn 380.000 DWT, chuyn vn chuyn cc sn phm xng
du nh Mogas, Diesel, Jet A1, Condensate, Naptha.

Hot ng vn ti ch yu l vn ti xng du nhp khu v vn chuyn xng du t nh

my lc du Dung Qut.phc v cho Petrolimex v cc u mi nhp khu xng du khc.
Do 40% c cu chi ph l nhin liu, c u ra v u vo u ph thuc vo gi du. Thng
thng cc ph s c k kt cho c nm hot ng, nhng trong trng hp gi xng
du c bin ng ln th c th c m phn tng/gim gi cc ph vn chuyn.

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Theo , li nhun ng gp t mng vn ti kh n nh trong giai on 2012-2016, trung

bnh mc khong 366 t ng/nm.

Hot ng ha du

Hot ng ha du ca PLX c thc hin qua cng ty con l TP ON Ha du

Petrolimex (PLC). PLC ng u ngnh v mng nha ng (30% th phn),v ng th
hai v du m nhn (12% th phn). Hot ng ha du ng gp khong 6% c cu li
nhun trc thu ca PLX trong 2016.

Hot ng nha ng ph thuc ln vo nhu cu u t cng, c tnh chu k 5 nm. Do

vy nm 2016 vi cc h thng quc l, sn bay cu ng c hon thnh trong
2015, nhu cu cho nha ng gim khin sn lng bn nha ng ca PLC gim 35%
so vi cng k. Bn cnh , nhu cu m nhn gim 10% di p lc cnh tranh trn th
trng.

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Doanh thu 6,063 6,198 6,808 6,916 4,799
LNG 663 761 996 1,245 802.3
LNTT 269 313 366 536 258

PLC c li th ln l tn dng h thng bn l ca Petrolimex phn phi cc sn phm

m nhn. Tuy nhin, p lc cnh tranh ngy cng cao s vn nh hng ln sn lng tiu
th m nhn ca Tp on. Trin vng kinh doanh ca PLC d kin cn gp kh khn trong
2017, do tip tc cu chuyn v giai on y trong chu k u t cng, v k vng s tng
trng tt hn trong nm 2018.

im nhn u t 6: Tng trng tt ca ngnh phn phi xng du Vit Nam

Tiu th xng du tng trng nhanh nht khu vc. Tng nhu cu tiu th xng du ca Vit
Nam c tnh khong 17-17.5 triu m3 tn trong nm 2015. Theo thng k ca World
Bank, mc tiu th du trn u ngi Vit Nam ang tng nhanh nht so vi khu vc,
trung bnh 10 nm t 4.3% v trung bnh 5 nm t 3.2%, trong bi cnh cc quc gia
khc nh Malaysia, Phillipines v Indonesia u c s chng li ng k trong mc tiu th
bnh qun u ngi cc nm gn y. Theo bo co ca Vin Du kh Vit Nam, nhu cu
tiu th xng du ca Vit Nam c ng gp t 3 lnh vc chnh: Vn ti ( khong 65%);
Sn xut cng nghip (~ 20%) v dn sinh, thng mi (~ 15%)1. S tng trng tt ca nn
kinh t nhng nm gn y phn nh s gia tng sn xut cng nghip, v ko theo nhu
cu v vn chuyn. ng thi, nhu cu tiu th t ca Vit Nam tng tt cng gp phn
lm tng nhu cu s dng nhin liu trong cc mng dn sinh.

1
https://www.vpi.pvn.vn/upload/file/TCDK/2016/Thang%2010/Doan%20Tien%20Quyet.pdf
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Kg du quy i trn u ngi, 2013 Tng trng nhu cu s dng bnh

900
qun
Indonesia, 5.0%
800
850
4.0%
700
Vietnam,
668 3.0%
India, 606
600

2.0%
500

Philippines,
457 1.0%
400

Myanmar, 0.0%
313
300

200
-1.0%
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
CAGR 5 yr CAGR 10yr

Ngun: World Bank, BSC tng hp

Nhu cu tiu th xng du c k vng s vn tng trng kh quan, c d bo mc

4.5%/nm cho giai on 2021-2050, theo n Quy hoch tng th pht trin ngnh Du
kh. Tng trng kinh t ko theo nhu cu sn xut, vn chuyn. ng thi tiu th t
vn ang tng trng kh quan, c bit vi vic thu t nhp khu tip tc gim theo
cc hip nh thng mi k kt. So snh vi tng trng tiu th ton cu ch mc
1% hng nm, Vit Nam l im sng c th thu ht s ch ca cc nh u t nc
ngoi.

Ri ro u t
Ri ro chnh sch
Hot ng ct li ca Petrolimex l phn phi xng du, vn ang hon ton ph thuc
vo cc chnh sch kim sot gi ca chnh ph. Trong thi gian qua, cc chnh sch lin
quan mang li nhiu thun li cho doanh nghip, nhng chng ti cho rng vi nhng
bin ng ln v ngun cung khi c s tham gia ca nh my lc du Nghi Sn, nhng thay
i v thu nhp khu xng du theo l trnh FTAs, v s tham gia ca Idemitsu trong th
trng phn phi xng du, cc chnh sch s cn nhiu bin ng v s tc ng ng k
ln kt qu kinh doanh ca cc doanh nghip trong ngnh.

Ngun cung bin ng: Nh my lc du Nghi Sn c d kin chy th t thng 6/2017,

v d kin trong nm 2018 s chy 100% mc cng sut 8.4 triu tn du th trong giai
on u. Theo , ngun cung ni a s cung cp ti hn 80% nhu cu tiu th
xng du trong nc. PVN c trch nhim bao tiu 100% sn lng ca Nghi Sn, v phi
b l nu gi bn ra cao hn gi thnh.

S tham gia ca Nghi Sn s thay i ng k b mt ca ngun cung xng du. thc

hin cc cam kt a ra v bao tiu v u i, chnh ph nhiu kh nng s kim sot cht
hn v ngun cung nhp khu, ng thi c cc chnh sch ph hp tng gi bn cc

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sn phm trong nc m bo kh nng bn hng ca Nghi Sn. S kim sot ngun

nhp khu theo s lm gim tnh linh hot ca Petrolimex, vn ang c li th khi c
la chn gia ngun trong nc v nhp khu.

Th phn ngy cng thu hp

Kh nng tng trng b hn ch. Vi quy m ln v cnh tranh ngy cng cao, Petrolimex
dn co hp th phn t mc 54-55% trong nm 2010 v mc 48% hin nay. Quy m ln
khin kh nng tng trng ca Petrolimex b hn ch hn so vi cc n v trong ngnh.
Doanh nghip cng khng th m rng quy m bng hnh thc M&A cc doanh nghip nh
l, do b gii hn bi lut cnh tranh. Theo , PLX ch c th t m thm ca hng, trong
khi h thng phn phi kh dy c v ph rng. Petrolimex phi cn nhc nhng vn
v mt bng v tnh hiu qu cho mi chi nhnh m mi. Trong nm 2010-2015, cng
ty m thm trung bnh 60 ca hng/nm. Cho giai on 2016-2020, cng ty c k hoch
m thm khong 100 150 ca hng mi nm, tng ng vi mc tng khong 4 -5%
v s lng ca hng.

S gia nhp ngnh ca doanh nghip nc ngoi. Nh my Nghi Sn hot ng ko theo s

tham gia ca CT TNHH Xng Du Idemitsu Q8, l lin doanh 50-50 gia Kuwwait Petroleum
International (KPI) v Idemitsu Kosan, 2 c ng ln ang cng nhau nm gi 70.2% d n
lc du Nghi Sn. Idemitsu s l lin doanh nc ngoi u tin c php tham gia vo
th trng phn phi xng du. Ti Nht Bn, Idemitsu Kosan ang s hu gn 4,000 trm
xng, v c rt nhiu kinh nghim trong lnh vc ny. Lin doanh ny s c php bn
bun, bn l v xy dng chui ca hng dch v xng du ton quc. Ca hng u tin
ca Idemitsui s c mt H Ni trong na u 2017, khu vc sn bay Ni Bi v trong
giai on 2017-2018, cng ty c k hoch nng ln 10 trm xng khu vc pha Bc. Chng
ti nh gi s tham gia ngnh ca cc doanh nghip nc ngoi s cha tc ng ng
k trong ngn hn, do Idemitsu cn thi gian xy dng h thng phn phi, h thng
vn chuyn chuyn dng, m s c nh hng ln hn ln tnh cnh tranh ca th trng
trong di hn

Ri ro u t ngoi ngnh
Danh mc u t ngoi ngnh ca Petrolimex cc lnh vc ti chnh, bo him, ngn hng
v bt ng sn, trc tip t Tp on v gin tip qua cc cng ty con. Theo bo co ti
chnh 2016, mt s khon u t ni bt c u t trc tip bi cng ty m l u t
vo Tng CTCP Bo him Petrolimex (PGI) 361 t ng; v u t vo Ngn hng TMCP
Xng du Petrolimex (PG Bank) v 1,077 t ng. Theo thng bo s 2280/TB-TTCP ca
Thanh tra chnh ph, Petrolimex ang c hn 2,255 t ng u t ngoi ngnh ti ngy
1/9/2016. Mt s phng n thoi vn c ra bao gm (1) Bn c phn chin lc ca
PGI gim t l s hu t 51% hin nay xung cn 35% trong 2017 (2) St nhp PG Bank
v Viettin Bank gim t l s hu xung di 20%.

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BSC lu ri ro lin quan n thoi vn ngoi ngnh mt s doanh nghip c hiu qu

kinh doanh km c th khin Petrolimex ghi nhn l u t trong thi gian ti.

Ri ro gi du v t gi
Din bin gi du v t gi l nhng yu t quyt nh ln kt qu kinh doanh ca
Petrolimex. Mc d hin nay, li nhun ca Petrolimex ang theo nh mc, nhng nu gi
du c bin ng qu mnh (>7%) hoc c xu hng gim, th s nh hng ln li nhun
doanh nghip. Din bin t gi cng tc ng ng k 70% ngun u vo l nhp khu,
c chi tr bng tin USD, trong khi xp x 100% ngun thu v l tin VND.

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D bo KQKD v nh gi
BSC d bo tp on c th t 158,189 ng doanh thu (+29.9% yoy) v LNTT l 5,340 t
ng (-12.1% yoy) trong nm 2017. Theo , EPS 2017 d bo t mc 3,170 VND/cp.
Chng ti d bo kt qu kinh doanh ca Tp on Petrolimex cho giai on 2017-2018
da trn mt s gi nh sau:
Gi du d kin tng 20% so vi mc trung bnh ca nm 2016, v tng 5% trong
nm 2017 tng ng gi du Brent ln lt l $52 v $55/thng.
Sn lng xng du bn l trong nm 2017 v 2018 c tnh tng trng ln lt
l 4.4%, v 7.2%. Cc ca hng mi m d kin cha ui kp tng trng doanh
thu, khin tng trng trung bnh mi ca hng ch t 2%, so vi mc 3.5% ca
2016.
Li nhun gp cho mi lt/tn sn phm cho nm 2017 s khng cn hng li t
chnh lch v thu nh 2016. Ngc li chng ti cho rng PLX c th m phn
c mc chit khu 1% cho sn phm xng vi Bnh Sn, gip nng cao bin li
nhun so vi li nhun nh mc.
Doanh thu v li nhun cc cng ty con v cng ty lin kt c c tnh da trn
k hoch ra ca cc cng ty con
T gi c d bo tng 1.1% trong nm 2017, theo d bo ca Bloomberg
Vi cc gi nh trn, doanh thu v li nhun cc mng kinh doanh chnh c d bo c
th nh sau:
2016 2017 (F) 2018 (F)
Doanh thu
Xng du 86,156 114,347 126,320
Ha du 4,799 4,965 5,371
Nhin liu bay 31,058 40,997 47,351
Vn ti 6,383 6,703 7,038
Bo him 2,388 2,560 2,732
LN Khc (10,160) (14,330) (14,330)
Tng doanh thu 123,136 158,189 177,726
% yoy -16.2% 28.5% 12.4%
Li nhun thun
Xng du 3,787 3,174 3,330
Ha du 407 416 423
Nhin liu bay 368 422 487
Vn ti 383 402 422
Bo him 35 49 56
PGC 139 149 167
Khc 369 376 384
Tng li nhun thun t HKD 5,487 4,987 5,269
% yoy 2.4% -9.1% 5.6%
Ngun: BSC d bo
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nh gi
Vi ngnh ngh kinh doanh c th, v th u ngnh v nhng li th ln v h thng
phn phi, chng ti s dng cc doanh nghip tng ng trong khu vc nh gi
c phiu PLX. Chng ti lu rng cc doanh nghip trong khu vc thng c mt s c
im khc bit so vi PLX. Bao gm (1) Hot ng kinh doanh tri di cho t mng thng
ngun u kh (thm d, khai thc) Sn xut lc du Vn ti v H ngun Phn phi
(2) Cc chnh sch lut c nhiu khc bit, do vy doanh nghip linh ng hn so vi PLX.
Cc doanh nghip ny ang c giao dch mc P/E trung v 11.7x.

Trong s cc doanh nghip, ch c PTG ca Thi Lan, c hot ng kinh doanh tng i
ging vi PLX, tp trung vo lnh vc phn phi xng du vi s lng ca hng l 1,150,
bng quy m ca hng ca PLX. C phiu PTG ang c chp nhn mc P/E 39.6x,
cao hn nhiu so vi cc doanh nghip c hot ng kinh doanh ton din (t thng
ngun xung h ngun). L do cho s khc bit ny l tnh ri ro thp v s n nh cao
ca hot ng phn phi xng du, so vi cc lnh vc khc.

Ticker Name Cntry P/E

5019 JP Equity IDEMITSU KOSAN CO LTD JAPAN 11.9
5012 JP Equity TONENGENERAL SEKIYU KK JAPAN 7.7
010950 KS Equity S-OIL CORP SOUTH KOREA 9.33
ESSO TB Equity ESSO THAILAND PCL THAILAND 5.9
096770 KS Equity SK INNOVATION CO LTD SOUTH KOREA 9.0
IRPC TB Equity IRPC PCL THAILAND 11.0
5002 JP Equity SHOWA SHELL SEKIYU KK JAPAN 25.6
IOCL IN Equity INDIAN OIL CORP LTD INDIA 16.1
BPCL IN Equity BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LTD INDIA 11.7
HPCL IN Equity HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORP INDIA 10.5
RIL IN Equity RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD INDIA 13.7
6505 TT Equity FORMOSA PETROCHEMICAL CORP TAIWAN 13.4
TOP TB Equity THAI OIL PCL THAILAND 7.4
MRPL IN Equity MANGALORE REFINERY & PETRO INDIA 25.2
PCOR PM Equity PETRON CORP PHILIPPINES 11.4
CTX AU Equity CALTEX AUSTRALIA LTD AUSTRALIA 12.2
PTG TB Equity THAILAND 39.6
Median P/E 11.7

Vi nhng li th ring, BSC cho rng mc P/E chp nhn c i vi c phiu PLX s
giao ng trong khong 15x 17x, ph hp vi cc c phiu ngnh bn l trong nc
nh PNJ (16.7x) , MWG (16.09x); ng thi cng ph hp vi cc m chng khon c
hot ng phn phi xng du trong khu vc.

Theo , vi LNTT c t 5,591 t ng v EPS 2017 = 3,170 VND/cp, chng ti cho rng
mc gi hp l cho mi c phiu PLX giao ng trong khong 47,556VND 53,897 VND.
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Ph lc: Tng kt ti chnh

KQKD ( t ng) FY16 FY17 FY18 Cn i k ton ( t ) FY16 FY17 FY18

Doanh s thun 123,097 158,149 177,682 Ti sn
Gi vn hng bn -108,891 -145,100 -164,272 Ti sn ngn hn 33,261 43,318 46,505
Li gp 14,205 13,049 13,411 I. Tin v tng ng tin 11,394 18,482 18,505
II. Gi tr thun u t ngn
Chi ph bn hng & QLDN -7,701 -8,061 -8,142 2,483 2,731 3,005
hn
Li/(l) t HKD 5,487 4,987 5,269 III. Cc khon phi thu 6,961 8,943 10,047
Thu nhp ti chnh 880 938 921 IV. Hng tn kho, rng 8,615 9,085 10,285
Chi ph ti chnh -844 -1,352 -1,418 V. Ti sn lu ng khc 3,807 4,077 4,663
- Trong : Chi ph li vay -552 -472 -538 Ti sn di hn 20,378 19,379 20,503
Thu nhp khc, rng 177 277 277 I. Phi thu di hn 43 55 61
Li/(l) t cng ty lin doanh 600 690 814 II. Ti sn c nh 15,712 16,529 17,607
Li/(l) rng trc thu 6,300 5,540 5,862 III. Gi tr rng ti sn u t 256 289 328
Li/(l) thun sau thu 5,166 4,542 4,807 IV. u t di hn 2,507 2,507 2,507
C ng ca Cng ty m 4,665 4,102 4,341 V. Ti sn di hn khc 1,861 0 0
EPS 3,606 3,170 3,355 Ngun vn
Kh nng sinh li I. N ngn hn
Bin li nhun gp 11.54% 8.25% 7.55% II. N di hn 27,699 31,096 35,186
Bin li nhun thun 4.46% 3.15% 2.97% I. Vn v cc qu 3,336 3,907 3,489
Bin LNTT 5.12% 3.50% 3.30%
ROE 23.63% 16.12% 15.50%
ROA 8.92% 7.02% 6.69%
ROIC 14.35% 11.26% 10.71%

Hiu qu hot ng

Vng quay hng tn kho

12.6 16.0 16.0
Vng quay khon phi thu
17.7 17.7 17.7
Vng quay khon phi tr
9.5 9.5 9.5

Ch s thanh khon

Thanh ton hin thi

1.20 1.39 1.32
Thanh ton nhanh
0.89 1.10 1.03

Kh nng thanh ton

N/ TTS
0.57 0.56 0.58
N/VCSH
1.34 1.26 1.36

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Khuyn co s dng
Bn bo co ny ca Cng ty C phn Chng khon Ngn hng u t v pht trin Vit Nam (BSC), ch cung
cp nhng thng tin chung v phn tch v V m, ngnh v doanh nghip. Bo co ny khng c xy dng
cung cp theo yu cu ca bt k t chc hay c nhn ring l no hoc cc quyt nh mua bn, nm gi
chng khon. Nh u t ch nn s dng cc thng tin, phn tch, bnh lun ca Bn bo co nh l ngun
tham kho trc khi a ra nhng quyt nh u t cho ring mnh. Mi thng tin, nhn nh v d bo v
quan im trong bo co ny c da trn nhng ngun d liu ng tin cy. Tuy nhin Cng ty C phn
Chng khon Ngn hng u t v pht trin Vit Nam (BSC) khng m bo rng cc ngun thng tin ny
l hon ton chnh xc v khng chu bt k mt trch nhim no i vi tnh chnh xc ca nhng thng tin
c cp n trong bo co ny, cng nh khng chu trch nhim v nhng thit hi i vi vic s dng
ton b hay mt phn ni dung ca bn bo co ny. Mi quan im cng nh nhn nh c cp trong
bo co ny da trn s cn nhc cn trng, cng minh v hp l nht trong hin ti. Tuy nhin nhng quan
im, nhn nh ny c th thay i m khng cn bo trc. Bn bo co ny c bn quyn v l ti sn ca
Cng ty C phn Chng khon Ngn hng u t v Pht trin Vit Nam (BSC). Mi hnh vi sao chp, sa
i, in n m khng c s ng ca BSC u tri lut. Bt k ni dung no ca ti liu ny cng khng c
(i) sao chp hay nhn bn bt k hnh thc hay phng thc no hoc (ii) c cung cp nu khng c
s chp thun ca Cng ty C phn Chng khon BIDV.

BSC Tr s chnh
Tng 10 & 11 Thp BIDV
35 Hng Vi, Hon Kim, H Ni
Tel: +84 4 3935 2722
Fax: +84 4 2220 0669

BSC Chi nhnh H Ch Minh

Tng 9 Ta nh 146 Nguyn Cng Tr
Qun 1, Tp. H Ch Minh
Tel: +84 8 3821 8885
Fax: +84 8 3821 8510

https://www.bsc.com.vn
https://www.facebook.com/BIDVSecurities

Bloomberg: BSCV <GO>

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