Offshore Wind Statistics
2005 and Beyond
Continuing his column on offshore wind, Adam Westwood
from energy analysts Douglas-Westwood Ltd, presents
forecasts for the 2005-2009 period, taken from the
forthcoming Refocus Marine Renewable Energy Report.
N
early 8GW of offshore wind
capacity (7.7MW) is forecast for
the 2005-2009 period. Progress
was slow in 2004, with many delays
pushing back installation schedules for
projects off the UK, Belgium and the
Netherlands. With only 66 MW coming
online, it was the quietest year since
2001. 2004, however, did see Germany's
first installation (an Enercon 4.5 MW tur-
bine - the largest installed offshore to
date) and interestingly the first offshore
wind turbines being installed outside of
Europe in Japan.
From 2005, installations will be back
on track with 304 MW forecast for com-
pletion. The UK and the Netherlands will
be the two main players in 2005; the UK
has two 90 MW projects scheduled for
commissioning before the year's end, and
off the Netherlands construction will
begin on the 120 MW Q7-WP project. A
demonstration unit off Germany makes
up the final installation in 2005. These
projects will make 2005 the most suc-
cessful to date, with slightly more capaci-
ty brought online than in 2003. The rate
of installations increases dramatically
from there on, with 747 MW expected to
be commissioned in 2006, with the UK
again leading. The first of Germany's
many wind farms will be brought online
this year as will the first Belgian project.
This growth is continued into 2007
when 1.8 GW is forecast. The UK,
Germany, and Belgium all build on their
progress in 2006 and Sweden is expected
to enter the market with 125 MW of
capacity. The first US project, Cape Wind,
is scheduled for a 2007 completion
although this project is one of the most
18 reFOCUS January/February 2005
unpredictable under development due to
the planning and political disputes ongo-
ing. The first Chinese project will also be
commissioned in 2007.
The leading players will see increasingly
higher amounts of capacity installed to
the end of the period. The UK and
Germany will by this time have built up
dominating positions in the industry.
2008 is significant because it marks
Denmark's re-entry to the market it once
led so strongly. The 200 MW Horns Rev II
wind farm will be built in 2008, and the
Nysted II project will follow in 2009. The
last two years of the period sees coun-
tries such as Finland and Spain entering
with their first major developments.
The UK is forecast one third of all
capacity installed over the next five years.
This represents the steady progress made
by UK projects. Here, few projects have
been cancelled, and the route to construc-
tion is more clear-cut than in other coun-
tries where a joined-up approach is lack-
ing from the authorities. Germany has a
23% share of installations, less than was
expected just one year ago. Slow progress
on the necessary cable permits is one fac-
tor that is holding back projects from con-
struction. There is no doubting the impor-
tance of the German market, but it is tak-
ing much longer to reach fruition than
previously thought. The installation of the
4.5 MW Enercon turbine in 2004 is a
promising signal. Denmark currently has
69% of all installed offshore wind capacity
so it is disappointing that it has only 5%
of the 2005-2009 capacity in prospect
from two 200 MW developments.
Regionally, North America has a total of
17% of the market and this comes from
1471 0846/05 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
relatively few projects. In comparison to
the large European market (81% of all
capacity) this is small, but it is a significant
share and one that will be built upon in
the future as the market grows in
response to the successes seen both in
Europe and the early projects off the US.
Asia is only a small market at present (2%
of all capacity 2005-2009) but in the
longer-term has good prospects. Onshore
wind has experienced dramatic levels of
growth in countries such as China and off-
shore developments are to be expected in
a number of Asian countries in the future.
Total expenditure in offshore wind for
the 2005-2009 period is forecast at
$13.4 billion. To date, the highest level of
expenditure was in 2003 where offshore
activity off Denmark and the UK pro-
duced the best year to date for offshore
wind. From 2005 the growth really
begins, with $626 million forecast this
year, growing year on year to 2009. From
2007, annual spend will exceed $3 billion
rising to $4 billion by 2009. In 2008
alone, the UK is forecast close to $1 bil-
lion of expenditure and by 2009 both
Germany and the UK will be spending
$1.5 billion per year.
All data given in this article is from
The World Offshore Wind
Database, from Douglas-Westwood
which provides up to 60 fields of
data from all known offshore wind
farms worldwide. Adam Westwood
is a renewables analyst at Douglas-
Westwood Ltd. He is the author of
the forthcoming study The Refocus
Marine Renewable Energy Report,
and manages The World Offshore
Wind Database, and The World
Wave and Tidal Database. He can
be reached on adam@dw-1.com or
+44 (0)1227 780999. Website
www.dw-1.com