Phan Tich Ky Thuat Thi Truong Chung Khoan - John Murphy

PHANTI'CH
KYTHUAT
K H I TRl/dNG
TAICHINH
Cam n an g h u o n g d i n to a n dien
ve cac p h u an g p n ap g ia o djch
vacacungdung
Technical Analy
1 ofthe Financial
Markets
A Comprehensive Guide
ôTrading Methods and
Du duy 01 oc s on gia >0 rng v cu trc
hop l nhung cun Phn tk h k th u t th
trng ti chinh vn bao qut trn vn tt c
cc k thut mi v thi va lp th cng nhu
nhiu pht trin mi trong linh vc lun thay di
nhanh chng ny. Mi chuong u uQCcp nht
nhng kin thc moi. Ngoi ra, cun sd) con
nhn mnh n thi tning chng khon, hng
trm minh hoa mi nht, v ba chuong hon toan
mi vi nhng thng tin chuyn su v:
Cc chi bao thi truong c phiu - Lung pht

hnh c phiu tng/gim, cc mc gi cao hon/
thp hon, khi lng giao dch tng/gim, v cc
cng c khc nh gi cung thi truong
dng thi dua ra cnh bo sm v nhng xu
hung thay i tim n.
th hlnh nn - Cch s dng hiu qu cc

th hp dn, p mt ny, nhng th to ra cc
d liu vi tc ng mnh m nh thp nhy ra
khi trang giy hay mn hlnh my tinh.
Phn tich lin th trung - Mt ni dung gii

thldi ro rng v mi tuong quan thit yu gia cc
thi truongti chinh.
Ngoi ra, cun cm nang ny cn cha ng cc

phn m rng v quy trinh pht trin cc h
thng, cc chi bo k thut tin tin, v c dng
thi mi nhu lp d th phn khc th ung.
Mt cng c v gi dnh cho tt c cc nh giao

dch thuc moi btnh , Phn tch k thut thi
tiung ti chinh se hong dn ban t ng dng
u tin cd ly thuyt Dow v cc k hut lp
thi c bn cho dn cng ngh my tinh mi nht
v cc h thng phn tch tin tin nht
Phn tch k thut
th trng t chnh
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FINANCIAL MARKETS: A COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE TO
TRADING METHODS AND APPLICATIONS
Copyright c by John J. Murphy
All rights reserved including the right of reproduction in whole or in part in any form. This edition published
by arrangement with Prentice Hall Press, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc.
PHNTCH K THUT TH TRNC TI CHNH: CAM NANG HNG DNTON d i n v

CC PHNG PHP GIAO DCH V CC NG DNG
Bn quyn ting Vit o 2011 Cng ty c phn Tinh Vn & Nh sch Lc
Tt c cc quyn c bo h, bao gm quyn sao chp c cun sch hoc cc phn ca cun sch dui
bt k hnh thc no.
Cun sch ny c xuit bn theo hp ng chuyn nhng bn quyn vi Prentice Hall Press, mt thnh
vin trc Ihuc Penguin Group (USA) Inc.
Mi thng (in v ni dung sch, vui lng lin h:

CNG TY C PHN TINH van
I9Z Nguyn Hu Cnh, Phng 19. Qun Bnh Thnh. TP. H Chi Minh
Tel: (+84.8) 38 407 837 * 38 407 847. Fax: (+84.8) 38 409 693
E-mail: info@tinhvanmcdia.com.vn - Website: www.bwportal.com.vn
V pht hnh, vui lng lin h: NH SCH LC

136 Nguyn inh Chiu, Phng 6, Qun 3, TP. H Chi Minh
Tel/Fax (+84.8) 38 274 172 - 0903.984.270
E-mail: nhasachloc@yahoo.com
J OHN J. MURPHY
PHN TCH
K THUT
TH TRNG
TI CHNH
c m n an g hng d n to n din y
cc phng p h p giao dch v cc ng dng
Technical Analysis
of the Financial
Markets___________
A Comprehensive Guide to
Trading Methods and A pplications/^/^N p \\
A c * /TRCH NrtM HUH*nY ? A \
I!"I MTTHNHVIN V1 !
Ngui dch: T h.s u t CM -T u n g Vy I * [thong TINTI CHNH/
Hiu inh: PSG , TS. P han TW Bch N guyt \ ? V THY CHUNG/ f/ J
NHXUTBNTNGHpthnh ph h ch minh
TINHVNMEDIA
Mc lc
Li ni u ................................................................................................7
Tc g i ....................................................................................................... 9
Li gii thiu............................................................................................13
Li cm on ..................................................................................... . . . 1 7
Chung 1
Trit l ca phn tch k thut...................................................... < .19
Chiromg 2____ __________ _ _
L thuyt D o w ..................................................................... ........ 45
Chung 3
Lp t h i........................................................................... ........ .... .59
Chng 4
Nhng khi nim c bn v xu hng.......... ................................ ............
Chung 5
Cc m hnh do chiu c bn ..................................................... VI23
Chung 6
M hnh tip din ................................................... ................... . .153
Chuung7
Khi lung giao dch v s lung hp ng chua tt ton ........ 179
Choang 8
th di hn .................................................................................... 2P.5
Chng 9
ung trung bnh di n g .................................................................219
6 John J. Murphy
C hng 10
Cc ch bo dao ng v quan im di l p .................................... 249
Chuong 11
V th im v h n h ........................................................................... 287
Chung 12
th hnh nn Nht Bn .....................................................................319
Chirong 13
L thuyt sng E llio tt............................................................................. 343
Chng 14
Chu k thi gian ......................................................................................367
Chong 15
My tnh v cc h thng giao c h ................................................... 401
Chiromg 16
Chin luc qun l ti sn v giao d c h .............................................417
Chuvng 17
Mi lin h gia th trung chng khon v tng lai:
phn tch lin th trng........................................................................ 437
Chuong 18
Cc ch bo th trng chng khon...................................................457
Chirong 19
Danh sch kim t r a .................................................................................477
Phc lc .................................................................................................... 487
Ph lc A
Cc ch bo k thut nng cao ........................................................... 489
Ph lc B
K thut phn tch th trng .............................................................. 501
Ph lc c
Cc vn c bn ca vic xy dng h thng giao d c h .........519
Ph lc D
Cc hp ng tng lai tip din ........................................................531
nh ngha ...................................................................................537
T f 4
Li ni u
Ra i cch y hng trm nm trc, phn tch k thut l mt cng c

c bit uc thit k cho th trng chng khon v sau ny uc p dng
cho thi tmng ngoi hi, kim loi, nng lung hay th trung hng ha
tng lai. Vi cng c ny, nh giao dch s dng cc biu trong cc
khung thi gian khc nhau d d on dc xu hng tng-gim ca th
trng, trn c s phn tch cc bin dng cung cu i vi c phiu
nhm ua ra quyt nh nn mua vo, bn ra hay gi nguyn c phiu trn
th trung. y l mt cng c hu ch gip cc nh giao dch kim c
li nhun trong kinh doanh theo phung chm mua ti y, bn ti inh.
Trn th gii, phn tch k thut d tri qua mt chng ng pht trin
hng trm nm vi nhiu tn gi khc nhau. Sau mt th k s dng V Hoa
K v 300 nm s dng Nht Bn, phn tch k thut ang cng ngy
cng pht trin v chng minh uc tnh hu ch ca minh i vi cc th
trng ti chinh ni chung cng nh th trung chng khon ni ring. Ti
nhiu nc trn th gii, cc nh phn tch k thut t hp trong Hip hi
cc nh phn tch k thut th trng (Market Technicians Association) -
hip hi uc thnh lp nm 1972 khuyn khch cc tng v k thut
giao dch, o to cho cng chng cng nh cc cng dng u t ng
thi ban hnh mt nguyn tc do c v chun mc chuyn nghip trong
cng ng phn tch k thut c tn gi l CMT (Chartered Market
Technician).
Tuy nhin, ti Vit Nam, phn tch k thut vn chua thc s urc cc
nh du t c nhn quan tm bi h cho lng bn cnh gi c v khi lng
giao dch, th trung cn chiu nh hung t nhiu yu to co bn khc m
tm l kinh doanh by n l mt trong nhng yu t dng vai tr quan
trng trong cc quyt nh giao dch. Nhiu nh u tu cho rng hin nay
8 John J. Murphy
cng c ny kh c hiu qu ti Vit Nam v th trng chng khon cn

qu mi so vi cc quc gia khc trn th gii cng nh trong khu vc, do
, kh nng ng dng s khng cao.
Bt chp nhng r cn tm thi trong vic ph bin cng c ny ti

cng ng cc nh u t, chng ti vn lun tin tng rng, trong xu h
hi nhp vi cc nn kinh t th gii, th trng ti chnh Vit Nam s c
nhng bc pht trin tng thch. V th, chc chn rng phn tch k
thut s l lnh vc c cc nh u t thc s quan tm.
Nm nm tmc, vi mong mun gii thiu v ph bin phng php

phn tch k thut cho cng ng cc nh u t ti Vit Nam, chng ti
bin son cun Phn tch k thut - ng dng trong u t chng
khon da trn ti liu ca John J. Murphy - mt chuyn gia hng u th
gii trong lnh vc ny. Tuy nhin, ti thi im , do nhiu nguyn nhn
khch quan n ch quan, chng ti xut bn cun sch m cha c s
chp thun ca tc gi. Ln ny, vi s ng chuyn nhng bn quyn
ca tc gi cho Cng ty c phn Tinh Vn thng qua Prentice Hall Press,
chng ti hy vng rng cun sch s uc bn c ni chung v cng ng
cc nh u t t chc/c nhn ti Vit Nam n nhn.
V phn tch k thut mt lnh vc cn kh mi ti Vit Nam, trong

qu trnh dch thut, chng ti c gng chuyn ti mt cch chnh xc
cc thut ng chuyn ngnh. Tuy nhin, trong qu trnh dch thut v hiu
nh, rt c th s xut hin cc sai st ngoi mun. V vy, chng ti rt
mong nhn uc s ph bnh, gp ca c gi.
Xin chn thnh cm n v chc bn c tim thy nhng iu hu ch

t cun sch ny.
TP. H Chi Minh, thng 3 nm 2011.
T h .s L t C h
Trng b mn u t Ti chnh,
Trung i hc Kinh t TP.HCM
FT L _ a 3
Tac gia
John J. Murphy p dng phn tch k thut trong sut 30 nm. ng

tng l gim c ca Cng ty Futures Technical Research ng thi l
chuyn gia t vn cao cp ph trch mng giao dch ca Merrill Lynch.
Murphy cng tng gi chc v phn tch k thut ca i CNBC-TV
trong thi gian 7 nm. Ngoi ra, ng cn l tc gi ca ba cun sch,
bao gm "Phn tch k thut th trng tng lai" (Technical Analysis
o f the Futures Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods
and Applications) c xut bn trc cun sch ny. Cun th hai vi
ta "Phan tch k thut lin th trng" (Intermarket Analysis:
Profiling from Global Market Relationships) m ra mt nhnh khc
cho lnh vc phn tch. Cun th ba "Nh u t trc quan" (The Visual
Investor: How to Spot Market Trends) ni v vn p dng cng c
k thut vo cc qu h tong.
Vo nm 1996, Murphy cng chuyn gia pht trin phn mm Greg

Morris thnh lp cng ty c phn Murphymorris (www.murphymor-
ris.com) nhm gii thiu nhng sn phm s phm c tinh tucmg tc v
phn tich trc tuyn cho cc nh u t. ng cn l sng lp vin ca
cng ty t vn k thut JJM (JJM TechnicalAdvisors) ti Oradell, New
Jersey.
Cc cng s
Thomas E. Aspray (Ph lc A) l chuyn gia phn tch Th trng vn

ca Cng ty Princeton Economic Institute ti Princeton, New Jersey.
Asprays giao dch trn th trung t nhng nm 70. Rt nhiu k
thut uc ng tin phong s dng vo u thp nin 80 hin uc cc
nh giao dch chuyn nghip khc p dng.
Dennis c. Hynes (Ph lc B) l Gim dc iu hnh v ng sng

lp Cng ty c phn R.W. Pressprich & Co., mt cng ty mi gii trong
lnh vc thu nhp c nh ti New York. ng ng thi gi v tr
Trung B phn Chin luc Th trung ca cng ty. Hynes l mt nh
giao dch tng lai v quyn chn ng thi l mt chuyn gia t vn
giao dch hng ha (CTA). ng c bng Thc s Ti chinh ca i hc
Houston.
Greg M orris (Chng 12 v ph lc D) pht trin h thng v

cc ch bo giao dch s dng phn mm phn tch k thut cho cc nh
u t v nh giao dch trong 20 nm qua. ng l tc gi ca hai cun
sch v th hnh nn (xem Chuong 12). Vo thng 8 nm 1996,
Morris cng vi cng s John Murphy sng lp ra Cng t c phn
Murphymorris vi tr s dt ti Dallas nhm hun luyn cc nh u t.
Fred G. Schutzman, CM T (ph lc C) t Ch tch kim Gim c

iu hnh ca Biarwood Capital Management, mt cng ty t vn giao
dch hng ha c tr s ti New York. ng cng l ngi chu trch
nhim phi trin h thng giao dch v nghin cu k thut ti Emcor
Management Corporation, mt cng ty chuyn v t vn qun l ri ro.
Schutzman l thnh vin ca Hip hi cc Chuyn gia Phn tch K
thut Th trung v hin l thnh vin HQT ca Hip hi ny.
T > i1
Li gii thiu
Ti khng h ngh rng cun Phn tch K thut Th trng Tng

lai li to ra mt tm nh hung nh vy trong lnh vc ny khi uc
pht hnh vo nm 1986. Hip hi Cc Nh Phn tch K thut Th
trng s dng cun sch ny lm ti liu gc trong qu trnh th
nghim chong trnh "Nh Phn tch K thut Th trng t cch
hnh ngh". Trong nhng cng trnh nghin cu nh gi ngha ca
phung php phn tch k thut, Cc D tr Lin bang d vin dn
cun sch ny. Han na, cun sch cng c dch ra 8 th ting.
Ti cng d khng h ngh rng vng i ca cun sch li di nh vy.
N vn tip tc dc bn ra trong 10 nm sau vi s lng bng 2
nm u tin.
Tuy nhin, mi vic tr nn r rng hn khi nhiu ti liu uc b

sung vo lnh vc phn tch k thut trong thp nin truc. Bn thn ti
l ngi b sung vo mt vi th. Cun sch th hai ca ti - Phn tch
K thut Lin Th trung (Wiley, 1991) gip hnh thnh mt nhnh
mi ca phn tch k thut hin uc s dng rng ri. Nhng k thut
c nh th hnh nn Nht v nhng phn mi m nh S luc th
trng tr thnh mt b phn ca tng th l k thut. R rng, cng
trnh nghin cu mi ny cn uc c th hin trong bt k cun
sch no vi mong mun gii thiu mt bc tranh d hiu v phn tch
k thut. V cng trnh ca ti cng thay di theo.
14 John J. Murphy
Mc d S quan tm chnh ca bn thn ti trong 10 nm qua vn l

th trung tng lai, song cng vic hin ti ca ti li lin quan n th
trung chng khon nhiu hon. iu y ti vo mt vng tun
hon k t khi ti bt du s nghip phn tch chng khon cch dy
30 nm. cng l mt trong nhng tc dng ph khin ti tr thnh
mt nh phn tch k thut cho CNBC-TV trong 7 nm. Vic nghin
cu nhng iu cng chng dang quan tm thc y ti vit cun
sch th ba - Nh u l trc quan (Wiley, 1996). Cun sch ni n
cch s dng nhng cng c k thut trong nhiu lnh vc ca th
tmng, trc tin l thng qua nhng qu h tuong rt thnh hnh vo
thp nin 90.
Nhiu chi bo k thut tng c s dng u tin ti th trung

tng lai m ti vit vo 10 nm trc uc a vo lnh vc nghin
cu th trung chng khon. l thi im ch ra cch thc m n
uc thc hin. Curcng, cting nh bt k mt lnh vc hay mn hc
no, nhng ngui cm bt cng c uc s thng hoa. Mt vi iu
tng nh rt quan trng i vi ti 10 nm trc gi y li khng cn
my quan trng. Cng nh kh ti pht trin nghin cu ca mnh thnh
mt m hnh ng dng rng hn v nhng nguyn tc k thut s dng
trong tt c cc th trng ti chnh, dung nh bt k mt s sa i
no cng trnh truc cng c th phn nh c s pht trin .
Ti c gng gi li cu trc cun sch gc. Do , rt nhiu

chutmg gc vn cn nguyn. Tuy nhin, chng c thay th bng
nhng ti liu mi v uc cp nht vi nhng th mi. V nhng
nguyn tc trong phn tch k thut c ph bin rng ri nn
khng kh khn g m rng vic nghin cu ra tt c cc th trng
ti chnh. Tuy nhin, do mc tiu ban u chi l th trung tuong lai nn
rt nhiu ti liu v th trng chng khon d uc b sung vo.
c thm ba chng c b sung. Hai chng trc v th

im v hnh (Chuong 11 v 12) c ghp thnh mt. Chng 12
l chung mi v th hinh nn. Hai chong b sung cng uc lng
vo cui cun sch. Chng 17 gii thiu v phn tch lin th trng.
Phn tch k thut th trng ti chnh 15
Chng 18 ni v nhng ch bo th trng chng khon. Chng ti

thay th nhng ph lc c bng nhng ci mi. S lc th trng c
gii thiu ph lc B. Mt ph lc khc gii thiu mt so chi bo k
thut cao cp hn v gii thch cch xy dng mt h thong giao dch
k thut. Ngoi ra cng c mt bng ch thch.
Ti chinh sa cun sch ny trong ni bn khon v khng cho rng

vic chinh sa mt cun sch dc xem nh "kinh in l mt tng
hay m ch hy vng mnh th hin n mt cch tt hn vi cch nhn
nhn vn ca mt ngui cm bt v nh phn tch c kinh nghim.
Thng qua cun sch, ti c gng th hin s knh trng oi vi mn
phn tch k thut cng nh nhng chuyn gia phn tch ti nng. S
thnh cng trong nghin cu cng nh s cng hin ca h vo lnh vc
ny tr thnh mt ngun cm hng v nim an i cho ti. Ti ch hy
vng rng mnh lm vic xng ng vi mn hc ny v vi bn
thn h.
Li cm n
Ngui xng ng c uc danh ting nht trong ln ti bn th hai c

chinh sa ny l Ellen Schneid Cloeman, Tng bin tp ca
SimonSchuster. C d thuyt phc c ti rng l thi im thch
hp d chinh sa cun Phn tich k thut th tng tng la'i v m
rng phm vi ca n. Ti vui mng l Ellen rt kin tr trong vic
ny. Ti c bit gi li cm n n nhng ngui lm vic ti Omega
Research cung cp phn mm th m ti cn, c bit l Gaston
Sanchez, ngi dnh nhiu thi gian d ni chuyn in thoi vi
ti. Nhng ng tc gi ca cun sch - Tom Aspray, Dennis Hynes v
Fred Schutzman - d ng gp chuyn mn v cng cn thit ca h.
Ngoi ra, cn c mt s nh phn tch cng ng gp vo phn th
nh Michel Burke, Stan Ehrlich, Jerry Toeke, Ken Tower v Nick Van
Nice. Phin bn sa i ca Chuong 2 v l thuyt Dow l mt n lc
hp tc vi Elyce Picciotti, mt chuyn gia c lp v phn tch k
thut dng thi l nh t vn th trng ti New Orleans, Louisiana.
Greg Morris xng ng uc nhc n mt cch c bit. Anh vit
chng th hnh nn, ng gp vo ph lc D v thc hin hu ht
cc cng vic v th. Fred Dahl t cng ty Inkwell Publishing
Services ( Fishkill, New York), ngui chu trch nhim v vic xut
bn phin bn u tin ca cun sch, cng c cng trong khu thc
hin cun sch ny. Tht tuyt v ln ny ti li c c hi uc lm vic
vi anh.
CHONG 1
Trit l ca phn tch

k thut
GII THIU------
Trc khi bt u nghin cu v cc cng c v k thut uc s dng
trong phn tch k thut hin nay, u tin chng ta cn da ra nh
ngha v phn tch k thut, tho lun v cc tin d khoa hc ca phn
tch k thut, phc ha mt s khc bit r rng gia phn tch k thut
v phn tch ca bn ng thi nu ra mt s ch trch thung dy ln
lin quan n phng php phn tch ny.
Tc gi c mt nim tin mnh m rng ton b nh gi v phung

php phn tch k thut phi c bt ngun t vic hiu bit r rng
v nhng g m phn tch k thut c th mang li, thm ch quan trng
hn c th l vic hiu v cc trit l hay cc yu t cn bn chng
ta khng nh iu .
Tnrc tin, chfr'g ta hy xc nh mc tiu. Phn tch k thut l

nghin cu v cc bin ng ca th trung, ch yu thng qua .vic s
dng cc th, nhm d on cc xu hung gi trong tung lai. Thut
ng "bin ng th trng" bao gm ba ngun thng tin c bn c sn
- gi, khi lung giao dch v s lng hp ng cha tt ton (open
interest). (S lng hp ng chua tt ton chi c s dng trong giao
20 John J. Murphy
dch tung lai v giao dch quyn chn), vn thung c s dng,

thut ng "bin ng gi" dung nh qu hn hp v hu ht cc nh
phn tch k thut u xem khi lung giao dch v s lmg hp ng
chua tt ton nh l mt phn cn thit trong phn tch th trng ca
minh. Do im khc bit ny, cc thut ng "bin ng gi" v "bin
ng th trng" c th uc dng hon i cho nhau trong sut
phn cn li ca cun sch ny.
TRIT L HAY YU T CN BN
Phng php phn tch k thut uc da trn c s nn tng ca ba
tin :
1. Bin ng th trng phn nh tt c.

2. Gi dch chuyn theo xu hung.
3. Lch s s t lp li.
Bin ng th trirng phn nh tt c

C i, nhn nh "bin ng th trung phn nh tt c" to nn tt c
nhng g uc xem l c s nn tng ca phn tch k thut. Neu nh
tm quan trng ca tin th nht chua uc hiu v chp nhn mt
cch trn vn th tt c cc tin cn li s chng c ngha gi.
Chuyn gia phn tch k thut tin rng, bt c th g mang tnh c bn,
chnh tr, tm l hay nhng yu t khc u c th tc ng n gi c
v chng c phn nh qua gi ca th trng . V th, ngi ta cho
rng vic nghin cu v bin ng gi l tt c nhng g m chng ta
cn. Mc d vic khng nh iu ny dng nh l kh to bo song
rt kh phn bc nu chng ta dnh thi gian xem xt ngha
thc s ca n.
Tt c nhng g m chuyn gia phn tch k thut khng dnh chnh

l vic bin ng gi s phn nh s thay i trong cung v cu. Nu
cu vt cung, gi s tng. Nu cung vut cu, gi s gim. Bin ng
ny l nn tng ca tt c cc d on c bn v kinh t. Sau , cc
chuyn gia phn tch k thut s i n mt kt lun l khi gi tng th

d vi bt k l do no, cu cng s vt cung v cc yu t c bn
cng tng. Nu gi gim, cc yu t c bn s theo xu hng gim. Dn
gii cui cng ny dung nh khng h khin chng ta ngc nhin
trong phm vi tho lun v phn tch k thut. Sau cng, chuyn gia
phn tch k thut nghin cu v phn tch co bn mt cch gin tip.
Hu ht cc nh phn tch k thut u ng rng ng lc chnh ca
cung v cu - cc yu t kinh t cn bn - l cn nguyn ca th trng
tng hoc gim. Bn thn cc th khng h khin cho th trung dch
chuyn ln xung m chi n thun phn nh tm l tng hoc gim
ca th trung.
Trong phn ln cc trung hp, bn thn nhng ngui s dng

th khng quan tm n l do ti sao gi tng hay gim. Thng thi
trong nhng giai on u ca mt xu hng gi hay nhng im
chuyn di quan trng, dng nh khng ai bit c chnh xc ti sao
th trung li ang th hin mt chiu hng no . Trong khi , i
lc cch tip cn k thut dung nh li on gin qu mc, v l-gic n
sau tin ny - th trung phn nh mi th - cng tr nn thuyt phc
hn. H qu l, nu nhng g nh hng n gi th trung u c
phn nh trong thi vic nghin cu v gi th trng l tt c nhng
g chng ta cn lm. Bng vic nghin cu cc th gi v hng lot
cc ch bo k thut h tr khc, ngui s dng th thung tm hiu
xem nn i theo xu hng no l tt nht thng qua cc thng tin t th
trng. Ngui s dng th khng cn phi c gng t ra"khn" hn
th tiumg. Hu ht cc cng c k thut uc cp di y u l
nhng cng c n gin h tr ngi s dng th trong qu trnh
nghin cu bin ng th trung. Ngi s dng d th hiu rng c
nhng l do khin th trng tng hoc gim. H khng tin rng vic
nhn din c cc nguyn nhn ny l iu cn thit trong qu trnh
d on th trng.
Gi di chuyn theo xu hng

Khi nim xu hng ng vai tr rt quan trng trongphung php
22 John J. Murphy
phn tich k thut. Mt ln na, bn khng cn phi tip tc c cun

sch ny tr khi chp nhn gi thuyt rng th trng dch chuyn theo
xu hung. Mc ch ca vic v d th bin ng gi l xc nh cc
xu hng trong giai on pht trin ban u v giao dch theo nhng
hung . Trn thc t, v bn cht, phn ln cc k thut dc s dng
trong phng php ny u phc v cho vic giao dch theo xu hng,
ngha l mc ch ca chng nhm xc nh v i theo cc xu hung
hin ti (Xem hinh 1.1.)
C mt h qu tt yu i vi gi thuyt rng gi di chuyn theo xu

hung - mt xu hng chuyn ng c kh nng s tip tc hn l i
chiu. Tt nhin, y l mt h qu rt ra t nh lut th nht ca Niu-
ton v s chuyn ng. Mt cch khc pht biu li nh lut ny l:
mt xu hung dang di chuyn s tip tc theo hng hin ti cho n
khi n i chiu. y l mt tuyn b khc trong s nhng tuyn b m
Hnh 1.1 Vi d v mt xu hung tng. Phn tch k thut da vo gi thuyt

l cc th trng i theo xu hung v nhng xu hng c khuynh hung
tip din.
phn tch k thut tha nhn rng mi th u tun hon. Ton b cch
tip cn theo xu hng l nhm i theo xu hung hin ti cho dn khi
c tn hiuo chiu.
Lch sfr t lp li
Phn ln ni dung ca qu trnh phn tich k thut v nghin cu v
bin ng th trung u c lin quan en nghin cu tm ] con ngui.
Chng hn nh cc mu d th, vn c nhn din v phn loi hon
mt th k nay, phn nh nhng s vic nht nh xut hin trn cc
th gi. Nhng s vic ny cho thy tm l i theo xu hung tng
hoc gim ca th trung. Vi tng hot ng kh tt trong qu kh
nn nhng m hnh ny c cho rng s tip tc hot ng tt trong
tuong lai. Cc m hnh ny uc da trn nhng nghin cu v tm l
con ngi - th vn c xu hng khng thay i. Ni cch khc, tin
d cui cng ny - lch s t lp li - l cha kha cho vic hiu uc
tng lai ang n di nhng nghin cu trong qu kh, hay c th hiu
rng tuong lai chi l s lp li ca qu kh.
D ON BNG PHN TCH c BN s o VI D ON

BNG PHN TC H K THUT
Trong khi phn tch k thut tp trung vo vic nghin cu nhng bin
ng ca th trng, th phn tch c bn li tp trung vo cc ngun
lc kinh t v cung v cu - vn l cc nguyn nhn khin gi tng cao
hn, thp hom, hoc khng thay i. Phng php phn tch c bn
nghin cu tt c cc yu t lin quan c tc dng n gi th trung
nhm xc nh gi tr thc cht ca th trng . Gi tr thc cht l
nhng g thc s ng gi thng qua phn tch c bn v c da trn
lut cung cu. Nu gi tr thc cht ny nm dui gi tr hin ti ca th
trng, th th trung s uc nh gi cao v cn uc bn ra. Nu gi
th trumg thp hn gi tr thc cht thi th trng s uc nh gi thp
v cn uc mua vo.
24 John J. Murphy
C hai phuong php d on th trng u nhm gii quyt mt vn

- xc nh xu hng di chuyn ca gi. Chng chi tip cn vn
theo nhng hung khc nhau m thi. Chuyn gia phn tch c bn
nghin cu nguyn nhn khin th trng thay i, trong khi nh phn
tch k thut li nghin cu kt qu ca th trng. D nhin, cc
chuyn gia phn tch k thut tin rng kt qu l tt c nhng g m h
mun hoc cn bit v mi ] do hay nguyn nhn ukhng cn thit,
trong khi , cc nh phn tch thng tin c bn li lun phi bit
nguyn nhn v sao.
Hu ht cc nh giao dch u t coi minh nh nhng chuyn gia

phn tch k thut hoc phn tch co bn. Tuy nhin, tin thc t li xut
hin nhiu chng cho. Nhiu chuyn gia phn tch c bn c kin thc
nht nh v nguyn l phn tch th. Tuong t, nhiu nh phn tch
k thut cng c nhng am hiu nht nh v phn tch c bn. vn
l cc th v cc thng tin c bn li thung mu thun vi nhau.
Thung th vo thrim bt u din ra nhng bin ng quan trng
trn th trng, cc thng tin c bn khng h tr hoc gii thch v
nhng g m th trung cn lm. V chnh trong nhng thi im ny,
dng nh hai phuong php phn tch mi t r c s khc bit.
Thng thng, chng s quay tr li ha hp mt vi im, nhung lc
ny li qu tr cc nh giao dch c th hnh ng.
Li gii thch cho nhng vn c v tri nguc nhau ny ! do gi

c th trung c khuynh hng dn dt cc thng tin c bn bit. Ni
cch khc, gi th trng ng vai tr nh mt chi bo ch o cho cc
thng tin ca bn hay hiu bit thng thng ti mt thi im tc thi.
Trong khi cc ngun tin c bn bit b xem nh v hin hu "trn th
trng", thi hin ti gi li ang phn ng vi cc thng tin c bn chua
uc bit. Mt vi trong $ cc th trung gi ln hoc gi xung t
ngt trong qu kh bt u vi mt t thay i hoc thm ch l
khng h c s thay i no trong cc thng tin c bn. Ngay khi ngui
ta nhn ra nhng thay i ny th xu hung mi li ang tin trin tt
p.
Sau mt thi gian, chuyn gia phn tich k thut mi cng c c

kh nng c th ca mnh. Anh ta/c ta s hc cch ha nhp vi
tnh hung khi bin dng th trung mu thun vi ci gi l hiu bit
thng thng. Nh phn tch k thut bt u thch th vi vic tr
thnh thnh vin ca nhm thiu s. Anh ta/c ta hiu rng, cui cng
th nhng nguyn nhn gy ra bin ng th trung cng s tr thnh
kin thc thng thng. Ch c iu l nh phn tch k thut chng sn
lng ch i s xc nhn b sung.
Trong qu trnh tha nhn cc gi thuyt ca phn tch k thut,

chng ta c th hiu uc ti sao cc nh phn tch k thut li tin rng
phutmg php phn tch ca minh li vut tri hn so vi cc chuyn gia
phn tch c bn. Nu mt nh giao dch phi chn la mt trong hai
cch tip cn th phn tch k thut s l la chn hp l bi theo nh
ngha, phucmg php phn tch k thut bao gm c phn tch c bn.
Nu cc thng tin c bn c phn nh trong gi th trung th vic
nghin cu nhng thng tin c bn ny l khng cn thit. Vic c
th tr thnh hnh thc rt ngn ca khu phn tch c bn. Tuy nhin,
diu ngc li th khng ng. Phn tch c bn khng bao gm vic
nghin cu bin dng gi. giao dch trn cc th trng ti chinh,
chng ta c th chi cn s dng phuong php phn tch k thut. Nu
c mt ai giao dch chi vi vic nghin cu cc thng tin c bn m
khng h xem xt kha cnh k thut ca th trung th qu l iu
ng ng.
PHN TCH V VIC TNH TON THI lM

im cui cng ny s tr nn r rng hn nu qu trnh ra quyt nh
uc chia thnh hai giai on khc nhau - phn tch v tinh ton thi
im. V cc th trung tng lai c t l n by cao nn vic tnh ton
thi im l mt yu t dc bit quan trng trong lnh vc ny. Chng
ta hon ton c kh nng b thua l trong khi vn i theo xu hng
chung ca th trng. V cc yu cu k qu l rt thp trong giao dch
tng lai (thung l dui 10%), nn mt s dch chuyn nh sai xu
26 John J. Murphy
hng c th khin cc nh giao dch "vng" khi th trng v chy

ti hoc nng gn ht khon k qu. Nguc li, khi giao dch trn
th trng chng khon, nu nhn ra mnh ang i ngurc hng th
trung th mt nh du t chi cn quyt nh on gin l gi li c
phiu, v hy vng th trng s quay li vo mt thi im no .
Cc nh giao dch tng lai thi khng c due s thoi mi d.

Chin luc mua v nm gi khng duc p dng trn th trung
tng lai. C hai phng php phn tich k thut v c bn u c th
uc s dng trong giai on du - qu trnh d on. Tuy nhin, vn
xc nh thi im, ngha l xc nhn thi im c th tham gia
v thot klii th Lrng, li hon ton thuc v phn tch k thut. Do
, sau khi xem xt cc bc m nh giao dch cn thc hin trc khi
t lnh th trng, chng ta c th thy rng vic p dng ng cc
nguyn tc k thut s tr nn ht sc cn thit ti mt s im trong
tin trinh ny, ngay c khi phn tch c bn d c p dng trong
nhng giai on u ca quyt nh. Vic tnh ton thi im cng ht
sc quan trng trong vic la chn c phiu ring bit cng nh trong
vic mua hoc bn trn th trung chng khon v cc nhm ngnh.
TNH LINH NG V KH NNG TH CH NG CA PHN

TCH K THUT
Mt trong nhng th mnh to ln ca phn tch k thut l kh nng
thch ng vi hu ht mi mi trung v khung thi gian giao dch. Quy
tc ny tic p dng cho bt k lnh vc giao dch no, k c th trng
chng khon ln th trng tng lai.
Ngi s dng th c th theo ui nhiu th trung nu mun,

trong khi iu li khng ph hp vi cc chuyn gia phn tich c
bn. Do thung phi x l mt lung ln cc d liu c cp nht nn
hu ht cc chuyn gia phn tch co bn c khuynh hng chuyn v
mt lnh vc hp. V chng ta khng nn b qua li th ny.
C mt iu l cc th trung s tri qua nhng thi k bin ng

mnh v trm lng, nhng giao on theo xu hng v khng xu hng.

Nh phn tch k thut c th tp trung s ch v cc ngun lc ca
minh vo nhng th trng th hin cc xu hung bin ng mnh v
b qua cc th trng cn li. Do vy, nhng ngui s dng th c
th lun chuyn $ ch v ngun lc nhm tn dng bn cht lun
chuyn ca cc th trung. Ti nhng thi im khc nhau, cc th
trng vng chc s "nng" ln v tri nghim nhng xu hung quan
trng. Thng thung, theo sau cc giai on theo xu hng ny l
nhng iu kin th trumg tnh lng v thiu vng xu hng trong khi
cc th trumg hay cc nhm khc li ang tip tc. Nh giao dch theo
phucmg php k thut c th thoi mi la chn. Tuy nhin, vi kh
nng chuyn mn ha chi trong phm vi mt nhm, nh phn tch theo
phng php c bn khng c uc s linh dng nh vy. Ngay c khi
c th thoi mi chuyn nhm, mt chuyn gia phn tch c bn cng
phi vt v hom nhiu so vi mt nh phn tich k thut.
Mt li th khc ca chuyn gia phn tch k thut chnh l vic h

nm duc din bin ca s vic. Bng vic theo di tt c cc th
trng, anh ta/c ta s cm nhn dc r rng nhng gi i .ig din ra
trn th trung chung, v trnh uc tnh trng "ch ngi y ging" khi
ch theo di mt nhm nh th trung. Tng t, v c rt nhiu th
trung c xy dng da trn cc mi quan h kinh t v phn ng
vi cc yu t kinh t ging nhau, s bin ng gi trn mt th tning
hay mt nhm th trung c th s to ra nhng manh mi quan trng
cho cc ch dn tng lai ca mt th trung hay mt nhm th trung
khc.
NG DNG PHN TCH K THUT TRONG CC MI

TRNG GIAO DCH KHC NHAU
Cc nguyn tc phn tch th c p dng cho c th trung chng
khon ln th trung tng lai. Trn thc t, phn tch k thut uc p
dng truc tin th trng chng khon v sau mi dc ng dng
vo th trung tng lai. Vi s khai tm ca cc hp ong tung lai
28 John J. Murphy
ch s, ranh gii gia hai th trung ny ang nhanh chng bin mt.
Cc th trng chng khon quc t cng uc lp th v phn tich
theo cc nguyn l k thut. (Xem hnh 1.2.)
Th trng ti chinh tng lai, bao gm th trng li sut v th

trng ngoi hi, tr nn v cng ph bin trong hn mt thp k
qua v d tr thnh di tung hon ho cho vic phn tch th.
Cc nguyn tc k thut dng mt vai tr quan trng trong giao dch

quyn chn. Vic d bo bng phn tch k thut cng c th uc tn
dng trit d trong quy trnh phng nga ri ro.
NG DNG PHN T C H K THUT TRO N G CC KHUNG

T H i GIAN KHC NHAU
Mt th mnh khc ca phuong php phn tch th l ta c th vn

dng n trong cc khung thi gian khc nhau. Cho d ngui s dng
c dang giao dch vi s thay i lin tc theo mc tiu kinh doanh
ngy hay giao dch theo kiu xu hng trung gian th cc nguyn tc
tuong t cng s uc p dng Chiu thi gian m ngi ta thung b

qua chnh l vic d bng phn tch k thut di hn hn. Quan im
ca mt s ngi cho rng th ch hu dng trong ngn hn cm gin
l khng chnh xc. Mt so quan im khc li cho rng phn tch c
bn nn uc s dng cho vic d bo di hn kt hp vi cc yu t
k thut dng cho vic tnh ton thi gian trong ngn hn. S tht l,
vi vic s dng cc d th tun v thng th hin d liu ca nhiu nm
truc, d bo bng phn tch k thut theo phm vi di hn cho thy
y l s ng dng rt hiu qu ca cc k thut ni trn.
Mt khi uc thu hiu, cc nguyn l k thut c cp trong

cun sch ny s to ra s linh ng cho ngi s dng, nh cch thc
ng dng chng t quan im mi tmng c phn tch ln chiu thi
gian duc nghin cu.
D BO KINH T
Phn tch k thut c th ng vai tr trong vic d on kinh t. V d,
chiu hung gi hng ha tiu dng cho ta bit iu g v kh nng
lm pht. Chng cng chi ra manh mi v s tng trng hay suy yu
ca nn kinh t. Nhn chung, gi hng ha tng m chi nn kinh t ang
tng trng v p lc lm pht ang gia tng. Gi hng ha gim
thung l s cnh bo v s suy yu ca nn kinh t cng kh nng lm
pht. Xu hng ca hng ha tiu dng tc dng n chiu liung li
sut. Do , th ca cc th trung hng ha nh vng v du cng
Tri phiu Chnh ph c th cho chng ta bit nhiu iu v s tng
trng hay suy yu ca nn kinh t v d bo mc tng gi do lm
pht gy nn. Chiu hng gi dng d-la M v th trng ngoi hi
tuong lai cng cung cp nhng chi dn sm sa v s tng trng hay
suy yu ca cc nn kinh t tuong ng trn ton cu. iu n tung hn
c l vic cc xu hung trong nhng th trung tng lai thng xut
hin kh lu tnic khi uc phn nh trn cc chi s kinh t truyn
thng vn c cng b theo thng hoc qu, v cc xu hung ny
thng cho ta bit nhng g va xy ra. Nh trn ca chng cho thy,
30 John J. Murphy
th trng tng lai thung cho ta bit v tuong lai. Trong mt thi gian
di, chi $ th trung chng khon s&p soo c chnh thc xem nh
t mt ch bo kinh t ch o. "Cc ch bo ch 'o ca thp nin 90"
(Leading Indicators for the 1990s) - mt cun sch c vit bi mt
trong nhng chuyn gia hng u ca M trong lnh vc chu k knh t
- ua ra mt tnh hung thuyt phc v tm quan trng ca cc xu
hung hng ha, tri phiu v chng khon nh l cc chi bo kinh t.
C ba th trng c th c nghin cu thng qua vic phn tich k
thut ng dng. Chng ta s ni nhiu hn v vn ny trong Chung
17, S lin kt gia th trung chng khon v th trng tng lai.
NH PHN TCH K THUT HAY NGI s DNG TH?

Cc nh nghin cu phng php phn tch k thut uc nhc n vi
nhiu tn gi khc nhau: nh phn tch k thut, ngi s dng d th,
chuyn gia phn tch th trng v nh phn tch trc quan. Gn y, tt
c nhng danh xung ny u c ngha ging nhau. Tuy nhin, cng vi
tnh chuyn mn ha ngy cng gia tng trong lnh vc ny, n lc
chng ta cn phi phn bit v xc nh cc thut ng ny mt cch cn
thn hn. V trong c thp k qua, gn nh tt c cc nh phn tch k
thut u s dng th, nn thut ng nh phn tch k thut v
ngui s dng th u c ngha nh nhau. Vy nhung, iu ny gi
dy khng cn ng na.
Nhng lnh vc ph bin hn ca phn tch k thut ang dc phn

chia thnh hai kiu ngi thc hin - ngi s dng th truyn thng,
v chuyn gia phn tch k thut thng k. Phi tha nhn rng c
nhiu chng cho y v hu ht cc nh phn tch k thut u kt
hp c hai lnh vc li trong mt mc no . tnh hung ca nh
phn tch k thut trong s i snh vi chuyn gia phn tch c bn,
hu nh tt c h u ri vo hoc loi ny hoc loi kia.
Cho d nh phn tch th truyn thng c s dng phng php

nh lung h tr cho phn tch ca minh hay khng th cc th
vn l cng c im vic chnh ca h. Tt c mi iu khc chi ng

vai tr th yu. Vic lp th vn cn mt cht gi d kh ch quan d
rt cn thit. S thnh cng ca phng php ny ch yu ph thuc
vo k nng c nhn ca tng ngui s dng th. Thut ng "ngh
thut lp th" uc p dng cho phng php ny bi vic c
th cng c coi l mt ngh thut.
Nguc li, cc nh phn tch k thut thng k hay phn tch nh

lung li thc hin cc nguyn tc ch quan ny vi vic xc nh s
lung, kim tra v nh gi chng mt cch lc quan nhm pht trin
cc h thng giao dch t ng. Sau , cc h thng, hay cc m hnh
giao dch ny uc lp trnh trn my tnh v my tnh s to ra nhng
tnh hiu mua v bn. Nhng h thng ny uc sp xp t n
gin n rt phc tp. Tuy nhin, mc ch y l nhm gim bt hoc
loi tr hon ton yu t ch quan ca con ngui trong giao dch, khin
cho vic nghin cu mang tnh khoa hc hn. Cc nh phn tch k
thut thng k ny c th c hoc khng s dng th gi trong cng
vic ca minh, nhung cho n khi no cng vic ca h cn gii hn
trong lnh vc nghin cu cc bin ng th trung th h vn c xem
nh l cc nh phn tch k thut.
Ngay c khi nim chuyn gia k thut my tnh cng c th uc

chia nh thnh nhm bao gm nhng ngui thch s dng h thng my
mc, hay cn gi l cch tip cn hp en, v nhm nhng ngui s
dng cng ngh my tinh d pht trin cc chi bo k thut tt hn.
Nhm sau duy tr vic kim sot cc din gii cc ch bo cng nh
qu trnh ra quyt nh.
Mt phng php na phn bit s khc nhau gia nh s dng

th v nh phn tch k thut thng k l nhn nh cho rng tt c
cc nh s dng th du l nh phn tch k thut nhung khng phi
nh phn tch k thut no cng l nh s dng d th. Mc d trong
cun sch ny, nhng thut ng trn c th c s dng hon i cho
nhau, nhung cng nn nh rng vic s dng th ch th hin mt
phm vi ca mt ch d rng ln hn trong phn tch k thut.
32 John J. Murphy
SO SNH NGN GN GIA PHN TC H K THUT TRONG

TH TRNG CHNG KHON V TRONG TH TRNG
TNG LAI
Mt cu hi thung (tc t ra l liu kh uc ng dng trong th

trung tng lai, phn tch k thut c c p dng ging nh trong
th trung chng khon hay khng. Cu tr li l c c ln khng. Cc
nguyn l C bn u ging nhau, nhng y c mt vi im khc
bit cn lu . Cc nguyn l ca phn tch k thut c p dng u
tin cho vic d on th trng chng khon v sau mi c p
dng cho th trng tng lai. Hu ht cc cng c c bn - v d nh
cc th hnh thanh, cc th im v hnh, cc m hnh gi, khi
lng, cc ng xu hng, bnh qun i ng v cc ch s - u uc
s dng cho c hai lnh vc. Nhng ai tng nghin cu cc khi nim
ny trong th trng chng khon hay th trung tng lai u khng
gp qu nhiu van. de trong vic iu chnh chng trong cc th trng
cn li. Tuy nhin, c mt vi im khc bit chung cn uc gii quyt
cng vi nhng im khc bit t nhin ca th trng chng khon v
th trung tng lai hn l vi chnh bn thn cc cng c.
C u tr c gi
Cu trc gi trn th tmng tng lai phc tp hon so vi th trng

chng khon. Mi mt hng uc nh gi theo cc cm v v s gia
khc nhau. V d, cc th trung ng cc dc dnh gi theo cng thc
cents/gi (1 gi tng uong khong 36 lt), cc th trumg sc sn li
uc nh gi theo cents/pound, vng v bc th dc nh gi theo
USD/ounce, cn th trung li sut thi uc nh gi da trn im c
bn. Cc nh giao dch phi nghin cu chi tit hp dng ca mi th
trung: hp ng c giao dch da trn loi ngoi hi no, mi hp
ng c nh gi ra sao, mc li li ti a v ti thiu l bao nhiu,
v nhng khon li li ny c b cng hay khng.
Phn tlch k thut th trng ti chnh 33
Thi gian tn t i c hn
Khng ging th trng chng khon, cc hp dng tng lai u c

ngy o hn. V d, mt hp ng Tri phiu k hn thng 3/1999 s
do hn vo thng 3/999. Mt hp dng tng lai in hinh s dc
giao dch trong khong mt nm ri truc khi do hn. Do d, ti bt
k mt thi im no, t nht na t hp ng cho cc thng khc nhau
ca cng mt loi hng ha ang c giao dch trong cng mt thi
im. Cc nh giao dch cn phi bit nhng hp ng no nn dc
giao dch v nhng hp dng no th khng nn. (iu ny s c gii
thch trong phn sau ca cun sch ny). Yu t gii hn thi gian tn
ti lm pht sinh mt s vn trong vic d on gi trong di hn.
iu quan trng l cn phi tip tc xem xt cc th mi khi nhng
hp ng c ngng giao dch bi th ca cc hp dng o hn
s khng cn hu dng na. Cc th mi ca cc hp ng mi hn
phi c theo di cng vi cc chi bo k thut ca chng. S lun
phin thng xuyn ny khin cho vic duy tr mt th vin th lin
tc tr nn kh khn hn nhiu. i vi nhng ngi s dng my tnh,
n cng i hi nhiu thi gian v chi ph hn bi cn phi lin tc thu
thp cc d liu mi khi cc hp ng c o hn.
iu kin k q u th p hon
C l y l im khc bit quan trng nht gia chng khon v cc

hp ng tng lai. Tt c cc hp ng tung lai u c giao dch
da trn khon k qu, thng thp hom mc 10% gi tri hp ng. Cc
yu cu k qu thp ny to ra kh nng n by rt ln. Chi mt s
bin ng kh nh v gi theo bt k hung no cng u c th tc
ng mnh n kt qu giao dch chung. Do , ta c th nhanh chng
kim li hoc thua l mt khon tin rt ln trn th trng tng lai.
V mt nh giao dch ch cn k qu 10% trn gi tr hp ng, nn chi
cn mt s x dch 10% theo bt c hung no cng u c th khin
cho khon tin giao dch ca anh ta tng ln gp i hoc mt trng.
Bng cch khuch i nh hung ca nhng bin ng nh, i khi yu
t n by cao khin cho th trng tng lai bin ng mnh hn so
34 John J. Murphy
vi bnh thung. Chng hn nh khi mt ai ni rng anh ta/c ta

"trng tay" trn th tning tng lai, hy nh rng, trc ht, anh ta/c
ta ch k qu c 10%.
T quan im d ca phn tch k thut, yu t n by cao khin

cho vic xc nh thi gian th trng tuong lai tr nn quan trng
hn so vi th tmng chng khon. Vic xc nh thi gian chnh xc
tham gia v thot khi th trung l yu t quyt nh trong vic giao
dch trn th trng tcmg lai ng thi s kh khn hon cng nh d
nn hon so vi vic phn tch th trng. V l do ny, k nng giao
dch k thut tr nn rt cn thit cho mt chung trnh giao dch thnh
cng trong th trung tng lai.
Khung thi gian ngn hn

Do yu t n by cao cng nh nhu cu gim st cht ch cc v th
th trung nn khung thi gian c nh'giao dch hng ha cn phi
ngn hcm. Cc nh phn tch k thut trong th trung chng khon c
khuynh hung xem xt nhng s vic c tnh di hn hn v bn v cc
khung thi gian vut ra ngoi mi quan tm ca nh giao dch hng
ha. Cc nh phn tch k thut ca th trng chng khon c th ni
v v tr ca th trng trong vng ba hoc su thng. Cn cc nh giao
dch trong th trng tng lai li mun bit bit v tr ca gi c trong
tun ti, ngy mai, hoc thm ch c th l chiu nay. iu ny i hi
phi c s chn lc cc cng c tnh ton thi gian rt ngn hn. Mt
v d l ng trung trung bnh di ng (moving average). Hu ht cc
ung trung bnh di ng thung c quan st trong chng khon l
so v 200 ngy. Trong th trng hng ha, hu ht cc ng trung
bnh di ng u dui 40 ngy. V d, t hp cc ung trung bnh di
ng ph bin trong th trng tung lai l 4, 9, v 18 ngy.
Tnh ton thi gian - yu to ti quan trng

Vic tnh ton thi gian ng vai tr rt quan trng trong giao dch trn
th trng tng lai. Vic tnh ton ng chiu hung ca th trng chi
phn tch k thut th trng ti chnh 35
gip gii quyt mt phn ca vn giao dch. Chi cn tnh ton mun
mt ngy, hay i khi chi vi pht, bn s thy ngay s khc bit gia
k chin thng v ngi thua cuc. iu ny cng t hi khi ta i sai
hung th trng v lm vo cnh thua l. Vic di ng hung th
trng m vn tin mt tt mang l mt trong nhng kha cnh gy tht
vng nht trong giao dch trn th trung tng lai. Tt nhin, v bn
cht, vic xc nh thi gian gn nh mang tnh phn tch k thut, v
cc yu t ca bn him khi thay i hng ngy.
T PH TH U C HN VO CH s TRUNG BNH T H
TRNG V CC CH BO
Vic phn tch th trung chng khon ch yu da vo nhng bin
dng ca ch s trung bnh th trung - chng hn nh Ch s Bnh qun
Cng nghip Down Jones hay Ch s s& p 500. Ngoi ra, cc ch bo
k thut dng o lung s tng trng v suy yu ca c th trng
- chng hn nh ung tng-gim NYSE hay danh sch cc mc cao
mi-thp mi - c s dng ph bin. Trong khi th trung hng ha
c th uc theo di da trn cc cch o lung nhu Ch s gi th
trng tng lai ca Cc Nghin cu Hng ha, ngi ta t nhn mnh
vic tip cn th trung rng ln hn. Vic phn tich th trng hng
ha tp trung nhiu hn vo cc bin ng ca tng th trng ring l.
! nguyn nhn m cc chi bo k thut dng d nh gi cc xu
hng hng ha tiu dng chung s khng cn uc s dng na. Vi
khong 20 th tmng hng ha hot ng, nn iu ny cng khng cn
thit lm.
Cc cng c k th u t dc tr ng
Mc d khi u uc s dng cho th trung chng khon v sau
uc ng dng trn cc th trung hng ha, song hu ht cc cng c
k thut vn khng dc s dng mt cch dng n. V d, cc m
hnh d th trn cc th trong tng lai thng khng c xu hng nh
hnh y nh trn cc th trng chng khon.
36 John J. Murphy
Cc nh giao dch tng (ai ph thuc ch yu vo cc ch bo ngn

hn - nhng chi bo nhn mnh cc tn hiu giao dch chinh xc hon.
Nhng im khc bit ny v nhiu diu khc na s c ni ti trong
phn sau ca cun sch.
Cui cng, cn mt iu khc bit ln khc gia cc th trung

chng khon v cc th trng tng lai. Phn tch k thut trong th
trng chng khon ph thuc nhiu vo cch s dng cc ch! bo cm
tnh (sentiment indicators) v vic phn tich lung tin qu (flow o f
funds). Cc ch bo cm tnh theo di hot ng ca cc nhm khc
nhau, chng hn nh nhng nh giao dch l (odd lotlers), cc qu h
tuong, v cc chuyn gia sn chng khon. iu quan trng nht nm
cc chi bo cm tnh - ch bo dng do lng s tng gim ca cc
th trung da trn l thuyt rng kin ca s dng thng l sai. Vic
phn tch lung tin qu c lin quan n v th tin mt ca cc nhm
khc nhau, chng han nh cc qu h tuong hoc cc t chc qun l
u t ti Chinh ln. Ngui ta ngh rng, v th tin mt cng ln thi
cng c nhiu qu sn sng cho vic mua bn chng khon.
Phn tich k thut trong cc th trng lng lai l mt hnh thc r

rng hn ca vic phn tch gi. Trong khi l thuyt v quan im tri
ngc uc s dng mt chng mc no th diu quan trng hn
c nm vic phn tch xu hung co bn cng nh vic ng dng cc
ch bo k thut truyn thng.
M T S CH TR C H V PHN T C H K THUT
Thng thng, mt s vn dc t ra trong bt c cuc tho lun

no v phn tch k thut. Mt trong nhng diu c quan tm l li
tin on t tr thnh hin thc (self-fulfilling prophecy). Mt vn d
khc l liu d liu v gi trong qu kh c th uc s dng d
on xu hng gi trong tuong lai hay khng. Nhng ngui ch trch
thung ua ra nhng bnh phm i loi nh; Cc d th cho chng ta
bit c th trng ang du, nhung khng th cho chng ta bit
c th trung ang i ti u. y gi, chng ta s tr li r rng l
mt d th s khng cho ta bit dc diu g nu ta khng bit cch c

chng. L thuyt Bc i Ngu nhin t ra gi thuyt rng liu gi c
c di theo xu hng hay khng, v nghi ngi rng bt c k thut d
on cng c th nh bi mt chin luc mua v nm gi on gin.
Nhng vn d ny cn phi uc tr li.
Li tin o n t tr th n h hin thc
Vn v vic liu c hin din li tin on t tr thnh hin thc

hay khng dng nh ang gy ra phin mun cho nhiu ngi v n
ny sinh thung xuyn. Tt nhin l mt iu dng uc quan tm,
nhung khng phi qu quan trng nh ngi ta vn ngh. C l cch tt
nht tm ra cu tr li l trch dn mt on ni v nhng bt li ca
vic s dng cc mu th:
a) Vic s dng hu ht cc mu th uc cng khai rng ri

trong nhiu nm truc. Nhiu nh giao dch kh quen thuc vi
nhng m hnh ny v thung xuyn tc ng n chng mt
cch ha hp. iu ny to nn ci gi l "li tin on t tr
thnh hin thc v nhng t sng mua vo v bn ra uc to ra
t cc m hnh tng hoc gim...
b) Cc mu th gn nh mang tinh ch quan hon ton. Cha c

mt nghin cu no thnh cng trong vic nh lung chng theo
phung php ton hc c. Chng chi l suy ngh ca ngi xem,
theo ngha en ... (Tevveles v cc cng s khc.)
Hai quan im ny i lp nhau v quan im th hai thc s ph

nhn quan im u tin. Nu nhu cc mu th mang tnh ch quan
hon ton v chi l suy ngh ca ngui xem, th qu tht l kh c
th hnh dung c cch thc nhn nhn cng mt s vic v cng thi
im ca mi ngui - iu uc coi l nn tng c s ca li tin on
t tr thnh hin thc. Cc nh ph bnh d th khng th ch ttch c
hai hng ny. Mt mt, h khng th va chi trch tnh khch quan v
r rng ca vic phn tich da trn d th, theo , mi ngui cng ic
lm theo mt cch thc nh nhau (do dn n m hnh gi uc
38 John J. Murphy
hon thnh), trong khi mt khc lai phe binh tinh ch quan ciia viec lap
do thi.
Su that la viec lap do thi mang tinh chu quan. Viec doc do thj l c
mot nghe thut. (C le viec dng ti> "ky nng" se hop ly hon). Nhfing
mau do thi it khi ro rang den noi ngay c nhfing nh phn tich do thi
kinh nghiem cfing luon chi biet dong tinh v6i cch dien gii thich ca
chng. Luon lun c su hien dien ca yeu to nghi nga v bat dong. Nhu
cuon sch ny cho thay, c lit nhieu huong tiep can phn tich ky thut
v chng thung khc biet nhau.
Ngay c khi dong tinh voi quan diem du don thi truong, phn Ion
cc nh phn tich ky thut cfing khng nhat thiet phi nhp cuc cng
mt lc v cng mt cch. Mt so co gng lirong tnrcrc tin hieu tren do
thi v nhp cuc som hon, trong khi so khc se mua 6 nhfing diem ph
vor" tu mt m hinh hay chi bo cho trucrc. Cn so khc nfia se doi thi
tnrcmg dieu chinh gim sau ^diem ph v trudrc khi hnh dng tiep.
Mt so nh giao dich xng xo nng no, trong khi so khc lai thn
trong. Mt so stir dung lenh dng de gia nhp thj trucmg, trong khi so
khc thich dng lenh thi trucmg hay lenh nghi gicri han. Mot so thich
giao djch di han, trong khi so khc thich giao dich theo ngy. Do d,
kh nng tat c cc nh phn tich ky thut hnh dng cng mt lc theo
cng mt cch thc thuc su l rat mong manh.
Ngay c khi duoc coi l moi quan tm chinh, ve ban chat, li tien
don tu tr thnh hien thuc cfing c the tu dieu chinh . Ni cch khc,
cc nh giao dich se phu thuc nhieu vo do thi cho den khi nhfing hnh
dng ca ho bt du tc dng hay bp meo thi trung. Mt khi nhan ra
dieu ny dang xy ra, cc nh giao djch hoc se ngung sir dung do thj,
hoc dieu chinh chien thut giao dich ca minh. Chng han, hoc ho c
the hnh dng truoc khi dam dng ra quyet djnh hoc doi lau hem de c
xc nhan r rang. Do d, ngay c khi duoc coi l mt van de rc roi
trong tuong lai gan, li tien don tu tr thnh hien thuc cng se c xu
huemg tu dieu chinh.
Cn nh rng, vic cc th trung gi ln v gi xung ch xy ra v

uc duy tr khi chng uc iu chinh bi lut cung cu. V i quyn
lc mua bn mong manh ca minh, cc nh phn tch k thut khng
th gy ra bin ng mnh trn th trng. Nu iu ny xy ra, hn cc
nh phn tch k thut s nhanh chng tr nn giu c.
iu uc quan tm nhiu hn bn thn cc nh phn tch th l

s pht trin mnh m trong vic ng dng cc h thng giao dch k
thut in ton ca th trung tng lai. v bn cht, nhng h thng
ny ch yu tun theo xu hng, ngha l chng hon ton c lp
trnh nhn din v giao dch cc xu hung ch o. Vi s tng
trng v dng tin c qun l mt cch chuyn nghip trong th
trung tng lai cng nh s gia tng nhanh chng ca cc qu cng
v tu tr gi hng triu -la, trong , phn ln cc qu ny u s
dng cc h thng k thut ni trn, s tp trung mnh m vo th
trng tin t lai ch gn vi mt s t xu hung hin hu. Bi h thng
th trung tng lai vn cn kh nh nn tim nng cho nhng h thng
ny - nhng h hng lm mo m bin ng gi ong ngn hn - vn
ang pht trin. Tuy nhin, ngay c trong trung hp xy ra s bp mo,
v bn cht, chng vn c coi l ngn hn v khng th gy ra nhng
bin ng mnh.
Ngay c vn v nhng khon tin tng cung c s dng cc h

thng k thut cng c th t iu chnh. Nu tt c h thng bt u
hot ng cng lc, cc nh giao dch s c th diu chnh bng cch
lm cho nhng h thng ca h nhy cm Hn hoc km nhy cm hn.
Li tin on t tr thnh hin thc thung c xem nh l mt s

chi trch vic phn tch th. Nu y l mt li khen th c v ph
hp hn. Sau cng, tr nn ph bin v c th tc ng n cc kh
nng c th xy ra, bt k k thut d on no cng u phi tucmg
i n. Lin quan n vic s dng cc phn tch co bn, chng ta chi
c th suy on rng ti sao vn ny li him khi uc t ra.
40 John J. Murphy
C th e dra vo q u k h d o n tng lai khng?
Mt vn khc thung c a ra c Hn quan n hiu lc ca vic

s dng cc d liu v gi trong qu kh nhmd on tng lai Tht
ngc nhin l lm th no m cc nh ph bnh v phn tch k thut li
nu ra quan im ny khi m mi phng php d don, t vic d bo
thi tit n phn tch k thut, u hon ton da vo vic nghin cu
cc d liu qu kh. Vy th h lm vic vi loi d liu no y?
Lnh vc thng k to ra s khc bit gia thng k din dch

(descriptive statistics) v thng k qu np (inductive statistics). Thng
k din dch lin quan n vic th hin d liu bng ha, chng hn
nh d liu gi trn mt th ung k chun. Thng k quy np lin
quan n vic khi qut, d on, hay ngoi suy t d liu cho trc.
Do , t bn thn d th gi l mt s din dch, trong khi s th hin
ca nhng nh phn tch k thut da trn d liu gi li ri vo lnh
vc quy np.
Mt ni dung thng k uc th hin nh th ny, Buc u tin

trong vic d on tung lai kinh doanh hay kinh t bao gm vic thu
thp nhng diu quan st dc t qu kh. (Freund v Williams) Phn
tch d th chi l mt hnh thc khc ca vic phn tich chui thi gian
(time series analysis) v ucda trn vic nghin cu qu kh, iu
chc chn xy ra di mi hnh thc ca vic phn tich chui thi
gian. Kiu d liu duy nht m bt c ai cng phi ng vo l d liu
v qu kh. Chng ta chi c th uc on tng lai bng cch chiu
nhng kinh nghim qu kh vo tng lai.
Do , dng nh vic ng dng d liu gi ca qu kh d d on

tuong lai trong phn tich k thut c da vo nhng khi nim thng
k c c s. Nu tng thc mc v khia cnh ny ca d on k thut,
chng ta cng s thc mc v tnh xc thc ca tng hnh thc d on
khc da vo cc d liu lch s, bao gm c phn tich knh t ln phn
tch co bn.
L TH U Y T BC I NGU n h i n
c xy dng v ng h trong cng ng hc thut, l thuyt Bitc i

ngu nhin (The Random Walk Theory) cho rng s thay i v gi
mang tinh c lp theo ky v lai lch gi khng phi l chi bo tin
cy cho xu hung gi tng lai. Ni ngn gn, s bin ng gi l ngu
nhin v khng th on truc dc. L thuyt ny uc da vo thuyt
th trng hiu qu - thuyt cho rng gi c dao dng ngu nhin xung
quanh gi tri thc cht ca chng. N cng cho rng chin lurc th
trng tt nht n gin chi l chin luc "mua v nm gi" tng phn
vi bt c n lc no nhm nh bi th trng.
Trong khi mt s t nghi ngi rng c cht ty tin hay hi chng

ni nhiu nht nh hin din trong tt c cc th trung, tht kh m
tin rng tt c bin ng gi u l ngu nhin. y c th l mt trong
cc lnh vc m s quan st bng thc nghim v kinh nghim thc t
hu dng hn cc k thut thng k phc tp vn c kh nng lm sng
t bt c th g m ta hinh dung trong u, hoc khng c kh nng bc
b tt c. Nn nh rng s ngu nhin chi c th ue nhin nhn theo
ngha tiu cc ca s bt lc trong vic khm ph ra nhng m hnh c
tnh h thng trong s bin ng gi. V vic nhiu nghin cu khng
c kh nng nhn ra s hin din ca nhng m hnh ny khng c
ngha rng chng khng ton ti.
Nhng cuc tranh lun mang tnh hc thut v vic c phi xu

hng th trung t thu ht i vi cc nh giao dch hay phn tch th
trung trung bnh hay khng khi m h b buc phi giao dch trong
mt th gii thc, ni m cc xu hng th trng l rt r rt. Nu bn
c nghi ng v mt im no , vic lut qua bt c cun sch v d
th no (c la chn mt cch ngu nhin) cng s chng t s hin
din ca cc xu hng theo cch thc ha. Vy lm th no m
nhng ngui theo thuyt Buc i ngu nhin c th l gii uc tnh
bn bi ca nhng xu hng ny, khi m gi c c lp theo k, ngha l
nhng g xy ra hm qua, hay tun tmc chng lin quan g n vic
xy ra vo hm nay hay ngy mai? Lm th no m h c th l gii
42 John J. Murphy
uc nhng vt tch thc hu ch ca nhiu h thng tun theo xu

hung?
V d, lm th no m chin luc mua v nm gi c th tr uc

trong th trng hng ha tung lai, ni m thi gian l yu t quyt
nh? Liu nhng v th di hn c th tr uc trong nhng th tnrmg
u c gi xung? Lm th no m cc nh giao dch c th nhn ra
uc s khc bit gia th trurng gi ln v th trng gi xung nu
nh gi c khng th nh on c v cng chng tun theo xu
hung no? V trn thc t, lm th no m mt th trung u c gi
xung c th hin din truc ht bi n ang n cha mt xu hng?
(Xem hnh 1.3).
C v khng chc chn rng bng chng thng k s hon ton chp
nhn hay ph nhn L thuyt Bc i ngu nhin. Tuy nhin, kin cho
rng th trung l s vic ngu nhin b cng ng cc nh phn tch
Hnh u "Bc di ngu nhin " s kh thuyt phc c cc nh du t vng

ii rng khng c xu hung thc s no ang din ra.
k thut hon ton ph nhn. Nu th trung thc s ngu nhin, th s

chng c d bo k thut no c hiu lc. Ngoi vic chi b tnh ng
n ca phng php phn tch k thut, thuyt th trng hiu qu c
v gn vi gi thuyt k thut cho rng th trng phn nh mi th.
Tuy nhin, nhiu hc gi cng dng tnh v th trng phn nh mi
thng tin rt nhanh, bi th m khng c cch no tn dng dc
nhng thng tin . Nh cp, nn tng ca d bo k thut l
thng tin quan trng uc phn nh trn th trng gi kh lu trc khi
c mi ngui kp bit n. Cc hc gi cng rt hng hn chng t
s cn thit ca vic gim st cht ch cc bin ng v gi cng nh
s v ich trong vic c gng thu li t thng tin C bn, it nht l trong
mt khong thi gian ngn.
Cui cng, c v nh cng bng khi quan st rng bt c quy trnh

no cng u din ra mt cch ngu nhin v khng th nh on uc
i vi nhng^ ai khng hu c quy tc vn hnh ca chng. Cng
nh i vi mt k a-ma-to, bn in tm uc in ra s tr thnh th
rt kh hiu. Nhng i vi mt ngui tinh thng y hc th tt c nhng
m sng nh nhoi u c ngha quan trng v chng h ngu
nhin ti no. S vn hnh ca cc th trng c th mang tinh ngu
nhin i vi nhng ai khng b thi gian nghin cu cc quy tc
hnh vi th trung. o gic v s ngu nhin s dn dn bin mt khi
k nng phn tch th c hon thin. Hy vng rng s i nhng
iu m dc gi nm uc sau khi c qua nhiu mc khc nhau trong
cun sch ny.
Chng ta cng nn hy vng cho gii hc thut. Nhiu trng di hc

hng u ti M bt du kho st lnh vc Ti chnh Hnh vi, mt
tnh vc cho rng tm l con ngui v gi chng khon c mi lin kt
cht ch vi nhau. V nhin cng l nn tng c bn ca phn tch
k thut.
CC NGUYN T C T N G QUT
Khi phin bn u tin ca cun sch ny uc xut bn 12 nm truc,

44 John J. Murphy
nhiu cng c tnh ton thi gian phn tch k thut c s dng
ch yu trong nhng th trng tuong lai. Tuy nhin, trong sut thp k
qua, cc cng c ny uc ng dng rng ri trong vic phn tich
xu hung th tning chng khon. Cc nguyn l k thut uc tho
lun trong cun sch nyc th c ng dng rng richo tt c cc
th trung, k c cc qu h tung. Mt c tinh b sung trong vic
giao dch ca th trung chng khon tr nn ph bin trong thp k
qua chinh l s u t vo lnh vc/ngnh, ch yu thng qua cc giao
dch ty chn ch s v cc qu hS tng. phn cui cun sch,
chng ti s chi ra cch thc xc nh nhng lnh vc nng bng vic
p dng cc cng c tnh ton thi gian phn tch k thut.
CH O N G 2
L thuyt Dow
GII THIU
Nm 1882, Charles Dow cng Edward Jones - mt cng s ca mnh
- thnh lp Dow Jones & Company. Hu ht cc nh phn tch k thut
v cluyn vin nghin cu th trng u cng nhn rng phn ln
nhng g c gi l phn tch k thut ngy nay du bt ngun t
nhng l thuyt ca Dow vo giai on chuyn i gia hai th k.
Dow d tng cho cng b cc kin ca mnh trong lot bi vit trn
t The Wall Street Journal. Phn ln cc nh phn tch k thut hin nay
u cng nhn v s dng nhng quan im c bn ca Dow cho d c
tha nhn ngun ca n hay khng. Mc d vy nhung l thuyt Dow
vn lo ra nn mng cho vic nghin cu v phn tch k thut, bt
chp nhng tin b ca cng ngh my tnh phc tp cng nhu s pht
trin ca rt nhiu chi bo k thut mi.
Vo ngy 3 thng 7 nm 1884, Dow cho cng bo ch s trung bnh

chng khon u tin bao gm gi dng ca ca 11 loi c phiu: 9
cng ty ung st v 2 cng ty sn xut. Dow cho rng 11 loi c phiu
ny l s th hin tnh hnh nn kinh t quc gia. Nm 1897, Dow
xc nh rng hai chi s s th hin c tnh trng nn kinh t v to
ra chi s chng khon ca 12 cng ty cng nghip cng chi so chng
khon ca 20 cng ty ng st. Nm 1928, chi s cng nghip pht
46 John J. Murphy
trin thnh 30 loi c phiu chng khon v y cng chnh l co s

hin nay. Trong nhng nm tip theo, cc bin tp vin ca t The Wall
Street Journal nhiu ln cp nht li danh sch ny v vo nm 1929
b sung thm chi s ca cc cng ty trong ngnh phc v cng. Nm
1984, nhn dp l k nim 100 nm ln u tin Dow cng b ch s
chng khon, Hip hi cc nh phn tch k thut th trng (Market
Technicians Association - MTA) d trao gii bc Gorham cho cng ty
Dow Jones & Co. Theo MTA - mt gii thung cng nhn s ng
gp tt bc ca Charles Dow cho lnh vc phn tch u t. Ch s
Dow - nguyn mu u tin ca nhng g uc xem l cng c hng
u trong vic nh gi hot ng ca th trng chng khon - vn
lun l cng c thit yu i vi cc nh phn tch k thut th trng
sut 80 nm sau ngy mt ca ng.
iu ng tic i vi chng ta l Dow chua bao gi vit mt cun

sch v ] thuyt ca mnh. Tha vo d, ng c mt lot bi vit v
hnh vi th trung chng khon c ng tn t trn t The Wall Street
Journal trong giai on nhng nm chuyn giao th k. Nm 1903, mt
nm sau ngy mt ca Dow, S.A. Nelson bin son nhng bi vit
thnh mt cun sch c ta l Nhp mn u c chng khon (The
ABC o f Stock Speculation). Trong cun sch ny, ln u tin thut ng
"l thuyt Dow" c to ra. Richard Russell, ngui vit li gii
thiu cho n bn nm 1978, d so snh s ng gp ca Dow cho th
trng chng khon vi cng lao ca Freud trong lnh vc tm thn
hc. Nm 1922, trong cun "Cng c nh gi th trng chng
khon" (The Stock Market Barometer), William Peter Hamilton (cng
s ng thi l ngui ni nghip Dow trn t The Wall Street Journal)
phn loi v cng b cc nguyn tc ca l thuyetDow. Robert Rhea
pht trin l thuyt ny mt cch su rng hn vi cun "L thuyt
Dow " (Dow Theory) (New York: Barron's), uc xut bn vo nm
1932.
Dow d ng dng l thuyt ca minh vo cc ch s trung bnh ca

th trng chng khon m ng d to ra vi tn gi chi s Cng nghip
v ch s ung st. Tuy nhin, hu ht cc l thuyt phn tch ca ng
u c the dc p dng cho cc loi ch s trung binh ca tt c th

trung. Chung ny s i vo m t 6 nguyn tc C0 bn ca l thuyt
Dow v tho lun v cch thc m theo , chng tr nn thch hp vi
phn tch k thut hin di. Cc chung tip theo s tho lun v nhng
phn nhnh ca quan im ny.
CC NGUYN TC c BN
1. Chi s bnh qun phn nh mi th
Tng v xu th ca cc giao dch trn sn chng khon th hin tng
lung thng tin ca Ph Wall trong qu kh, k c qu kh gn dy ln
xa xua, dc ng dng phn nh tng lai. Ging nh mt s nh
thng k vn thung lm, chng ta khng cn phi b sung vo chi s
trung binh nh cc chi s gi hng ha, hot ng thanh ton b tr ca
ngn hng, dao ng t gi hi oi, khi lirng giao dch trong v
ngoi nuc hay bt k th g. Wall Street s cn nhc tt c nhng iu
ny (Hamilton, trang 40-41).
Nghe c v quen phi khng? Nh uc cp trong Chung 1,

quan im th trng phn nh tt c nhng yu t c nh hng chung
dn cung cu chnh l mt trong nhng tin cn bn ca l thuyt k
thut. L thuyt ny c hiu qu i vi cc ch s trung bnh ca th
trng cng nh i vi cc th trng ring l v thm chi chiu c c
thin tai. Mc d khng th d on c nhng s kin nh ng t
hay thin tai, nhung th trung li c th phn nh nhng s c ny bng
cch tc ng gn nh l lp tc n gi c.
2. Th trng c ba xu hng chnh

Truc kh bn lun v s vn hnh ca cc xu hiing, chng ta phi lm
r nh ngha xu hng ca Dow. Dow nh ngha mt xu hung tng
l tinh hung m trong th trng s c xu hng tng khi mc gi
giao dch cao nht hin ti cao hn cc mc gi nh trc dy, v mc
gi thp nht ti thi im hin ti cng cao hn cc mc gi thp nht
trong qu kh. Ni cch khc, mt xu hng tng c th gm cc
inh v y tng dn. Nguc li, th trng c chiu hung i xung
48 John J. Murphy
khi mc gi cao nht v thp nht ca th trng hin ti thp hn mc

cao nht v thp nht trong qu kh. nh ngha ca Dow uc th
thch qua thi gian v vn lun uc coi l nn mng cho vic phn
tch xu hng.
Dow tin rng cc quy lut v s tc ng v phn ng c p dng

cho cc th trng cng nh i vi th gii vt cht. ng vit "H
s giao dch cho thy rng, trong nhiu trng hp, khi chm inh,
chng khon s suy gim i cht v sau quay u tin gn v mc
cao nht. Nu sau mt bin dng nh trn m gi li roi xung na th
c kh nng n s gim su hon." (Nelson, trang 43).
Dow cho rng mt xu hng phi c ba cp: xu hng chinh hay xu

hung c bn (primary), xu hung trung gian (secondary) v xu hng
nh hay xu hung ngn hn (minor) v uc v von nh thy triu,
sng v sng ln tn ca i dcmg. Giai on u ca xu hng i
din cho thy triu,'giai on th hai hay'cn gi xu hung trung gian
(intermediate) i din cho nhng t sng hnh thnh nn thy triu
v nhng xu hung nh c biu hin ca nhng gn sng ln tn.
Mt nh quan st c th xc nh c hng pht trin ca thy

triu bng cch dnh du im cao nht ca tng t sng lin tip.
Nu mi t sng chm nh cao hn t sng truc, tc thy triu
ang ln. Khi inh ca cc ln sng lin tip gim dn th c ngha l
thy triu ang rt. Khng nhu thy triu thc s ca i dcmg chi ko
di ong vi gi, Dow cho rng thy triu ca th trng ko di hn
mt nm, c khi l vi nm.
Giai on th hai hay giai on trang gian l s hiu chinh ca xu

hng ban u v thng l ko di t ba tun n ba thng. Nhn
chung, nhng s hiu chnh intermediate ny thoi li khong mt phn
ba n hai phn ba xu hung truc v a phn l mt na, hay 50%.
Theo Dow, xu th th yu (hoc tuomg lai gn) thng thung ngn

hcm ba tun. Xu hung ny l s dao ng ca xu hung trung gian.
Chng ta s tho lun v khi nim xu hung chi tit hon trong Chung
4, Khi nim c bn v xu hung, noi chng ta s s dng nhng khi

nim v thut ng ny.
3. Xu hng chnh gm b a giai on
Dow tp trung vo cc xu hung ch yu hay xu hung chinh v ng

cho rng chng din ra theo ba k: k tch ly (accumulation phase),
k thm nhp vo cng chng (public participation) v giai on phn
phi (distribution). K tch ly din ra khi cc nh u t c hiu bit,
ch ng mua cc c phiu ca cng ty, tri ngc vi cc kin ca
th trung. Nu xu hng trc ang gim th trong giai on ny
cc nh du t nhanh tr s nhn ra rng th trng tip nhn ht
tt c nhng tin tc ti t ri. Giai on ny gi c phiu tng khng
ng k do s lng ngui mua t trong khi cung ra th trng cn kh
nhiu. Tuy nhin, khi nhn thy rng cc nh u t trn ng, ngui
ta s x i m ua c phiu ny dn ti s tng t bin v gi trong
giai on hai - giai on thm nhp vo cng chng. Xu hng ny s
ko di cho n khi nhu cu du c trn th trng t mc cc i. Lc
ny, khi bo ch bt u ua tin v s tng gi ca c phiu v tn hiu
tch cc ca nn kinh t cng nh s gia tng v khi lng u c v,
cc nh u t khn ngoan s bn s c phiu ca h ra th trng, v
dy chinh l giai on th ba ca xu hng - giai on phn phi.
Trong sut giai on cui cng ny, nhng nh u t vn tch

ly thi im th trng chm y (l lc khng ai mun mua vo)
bt u phn phi ra bn ngoi truc khi c nhng ngui khc khi
ng vic .
Nhng ngui theo l thuyt sng Elliott s tha nhn cch phn chia
th trng gi ln (bull market) chnh thnh ba giai on ring bit. Da
trn nghin cu ca Rhea trong cun L thuyt Dow, R.N.Elliott d b
sung ti m han vi vic nhn nhn rng mt th trumg gi ln bao gm
ba bin dng tng gi chnh. Trong Chng 13, L thuyt sng
Elliott, chng ta s ch ra nhng im tng dng gia ba giai on
trong th tmng gi ln ca l thuyt Dow v chui nm sng Elliott.
50 John J. M urphy
4. Cc chi s trung bnh phi cng c ln nhau

Lin quan n ch s binh qun C ng nghip v ng st, Dow mun
ni rng khng quan trng l tn hiu th trng tng hay gim gi c
th xy ra tr khi c hai ch s bnh qun phi a ra cng m t tn hiu
tng ng, tc l chng cng c n nhau. ng cho rng c hai ch s
phi cng vt qua nh cao th hai ca t trc chng minh
rng m t th tm ng tng gi bt u hay tip din. ng khng h
ngh rng cc tn hiu buc phi xut hin ng thi, nhng li cng
nhn khong thi gian gia hai tn hiucng ngn th cng cho thy s
chc chn. Khi c mt ch s chch so vi ci kia th Dow cho rng xu
hng trc vn c duy tr. (L thuyt sng Elliott ch i hi tn hiu
t mt ch s ring l.) Chng 6, M hnh tip din , s ni n cc
khi nim c bn ca vic cng c v phn k. (Xem hnh 2.1 v 2.2)
Hnh 2.1 V d v L thuyt Dw trong khi xem xt th trng di hn. Khi

mt xu hng tng gi tip din th c hai ch s Dow Industrial (Cng
nghip) v Transports (ng st) u tng.
Hnh 2.2 Mt s vi d v s tng ng ca hai ch s trong l thuyt Dow.

Vo.du nm 1997 (im I), ch s ng st Dow chng minh cho s ph
v trc trong ch s cng nghip. Thng 5 (im 2), ch s cng nghip
Dow chng minh mc cao truc trong ch s ng st.
5. Khi lng giao dch phi xc nhn xu hng

Dow cng nhn khi lng giao dch l m t yu t ng th hai nhng
khng km phn quan trng trong vic xc nhn nhng tn hiugi. C
th ni n gin rng, khi ng giao dch s gia tng theo hng pht
rin ca xu hung chnh. Trong m t xu hung tng, khi lung giao
dch s tng khi gi tng n, v gim khi gi gim. Trong m t xu hng
gim, khi lng giao dch s ng khi gi gim v gim khi gi phc
hi m c tng. Dow xem khi lng giao dch l m t ch bo c tm
quan trng th hai. ng quan st nhng tn hiu m ua v bn hon ton
da trn gi ng ca. Trong C huang 7, Khi lng giao dch v s
ung hp ng cha tt ton, chng ta s ni v khi lung giao dch
v cc quan im ca Dow. N gy nay, cc ch bo phc tp v khi
lng gip chng ta xc nh khi ung ang gia tng hay suy gim.
52 John J. Murphy
Nhng nh giao dch khn ngon s bit s dng kin thc ny nh

gi bin ng gi v xem Bu hai chi s ny c cng c ln nhau hay
khng.
6. M t xu hng irc cho l s tip din cho n khi c tn hiu

o chiu
tng c nhc n trong Chng 1, tin ny hinh thnh nn

phn ln nn tng ca cch tip cn hin i tun theo xu hng. N
lin quan dn mt quy tc vt l v bin ng th trung, trong d mt
vt th ang chuyn ng (trong trung hp ny l mt xu hng) c
khuynh hng tip tc chuyn ng cho n khi nhng tc ng ngoi
vi khin n thay i hng i. C nhiu cng c h tr cc nh giao
dch pht hin ra nhng tn hiu do chiu, bao gm nghin cu v
ngung h tr v khng c, m hnh gi, ung xu hung v ng
trung bnh di dng. Mt s ch bo cn c th ua ra cnh bo sm v
nguy c Tiit xung lng. Nu tt c chng khng cho thy iu g c
ngha l xu hng hin ti s tip din.
Cng vic c xem l kh khn nht i vi mt ngi theo l

thuyt Dow hay bt k mt nh giao dch theo xu hung no l phn
bit mt s hiu chinh th yu trong xu hng hin ti vi giai on tn
hiu u tin ca mt xu hung mi o nghch. Nhng ngui theo l
thuyt Dow thung xuyn bt dng v vic xc nh thi im xut
hin tn huo chiu thc s. Hnh 2.3a v 2.3b chi ra cch thc xut
hin s bt ng ny.
Hnh 2.3a v 2.3b minh ha hai tnh hung th trung khc nhau.
Trong hnh 2.3a, s hi phc ti im c thp hn nh A trc . Sau
, gi li rt xung di im B. S xut hin ca hai inh thp hon
v hai y thp hn d to ra mt tn hiu bn r rng ti im m B b
ph v (im S). i khi, m hnh o chiu ny m chi n thut ng
c tn gi l phn k m (failure swing).
Phn tch k th u t th trng ti chnh 53
H nh 2 3 a Phn k m. nh H n h 23b Phn k dng, c vut qua

c tht bi trong vic vut qua trc khi ri xung di B. M t so ngui s
A, sa u l ph v m c thp dng l thuyt D aw s nhn thy tin hu
B, to nn m t tn hiu bn ti bn ti S , trong khi nhng ngui khc li
s. cn m t nh thp hn ti E trc khi quay
u ri xung S2.
Trong hnh 2.3b, nh C cao hn nh A. Gi sau i gim xung

di B. Mt s ngi theo l thuyt Dow c th s khng xem s ph
v ngng h tr s 1 i mt tn hiu bn tht s. H cho rng ch mi
xut hin nhng ngng thp thp hn ch chua c ngng cao thp
hom. H mong mun nhn thy s hi phc ln im E, thp hn im
c v tm kim mt mc thp mi nm di D. Vi h, S2 i din cho
mt tn hiu bn thc s vi hai nh thp hom v hai y thp hn.
M hnh o chiu trong hnh 2.3b uc gi l "phn k dng".

Mt phn k m (trong hnh 2.3a) i mt m hnh yu hn m hnh
phn k dong trong hnh 2.3b. Hnh 2.4a v 2.4b l vi d tng l
nhung ti ca y th trng.
54 John J. Murphy
Hnh 2.4a y phn k m. Tn Hnh 2.4b y phn k dung. Tin

hiu mua xut hin khi im B b hiu mua xut hin ti cc im BI
vt qua. (ti B) hoc B2.
V IC s DNG GI NG CA V s HIN DIN CA CC

NG
Dow ch tin cy vo gi ng ca. ng tin rng cc ch s trung bnh
phi kt thc cao hn mc cao nht hoc thp hon mc thp nht ca
hm truc mi to ra ngha. Dow khng xem trng s ph v gi
trong ngy.
Khi ni dn ng (line) trong chi s trung bnh, cc nh giao dch

dang ni n cc m hnh nm ngang i khi hin din ong cc th.
Nhng phm vi giao dch nm ngang thung ng vai tr nh nhng
giai on hiu chinh v thung c xem l s cng c. Thut ng hin
i gi nhng m hnh dao ng bng phng ny l hnh ch nht.
M T S CH T R C H i VI L THUYT DOW
D d uc p dng thnh cng qua thi gian trong vic xc nh th

trng gi ln v gi xung c bn, song L thuyt Dow vn khng
trnh khi nhng ch trch. Tnh bnh qun, l thuyt Dow d b qua t
20 n 25% ca mt bin ng truc khi to ra tn hiu. Nhiu nh giao
dch coi iu ny l qu tr. Mt tin hiu mua trong l thuyt Dow
thng xut hin ti k th hai ca xu hung tng khi gi vt qua mc
inh trung gian tn~7c . Tht ng tic, y cng l thi im khi hu

ht cc h thng k thut tun theo xu hung bt u xc nh v tham
gia vo xu hung hin ti.
p li nhng kin chi trch ny, cc nh giao dch cn nh rng

Dow khng h c nh d on xu hung m chi mun tha nhn s
xut hin ca th tiung gi ln v gi xung c bn ng thi ginh
uc t l ng k trong s bin ng ca th trung quan trng.
Cc ti liu cho thy ] thuyt Dow thc hin chc nng ca n

tng i tt. T nm 1920 n 1975, cc tn hiu trong l thuyt Dow
d ginh uc 68% bin ng trong cc chi s trung binh cng nghip
v dng st, 67% ch s hn hp s&p 500 (ngun: Barron). Nhng ai
chi trch l thuyt Dow vi cho rng l thuyt ny tht bi do khng nm
bt uc nh v y ca th trng qu thc khng nm r trit l ca
bn ca giao dch theo xu hng.
CHNG KHON NH L NHNG CH BO KINH T

R rng, Dow chua bao gi c nh s dng l thuyt ca mnh d
on hung pht trin ca th trung chng khon. Vi ng, gi tr thc
s ca n l dng hng i ca th tmng chng khon lm cng c
nh gi tnh hnh kinh t chung. Chng ta ly tn kinh ngc truc tm
nhn v ti nng ca Dow. Hon na, trong vic hnh thnh nn rt nhiu
phutmg php d on gi ngy nay, ng l ngui u tin tha nhn tm
quan trng ca c ch s trung bnh th trung chng khon nh mt
chi bo kinh t hng u.
P DNG L THUYT DOW CHO GIAO DCH TNG LAI

L thuyt Dow xem xt hnh vi ca cc ch s trung bnh chng khon.
Mc d cng trnh ca ng vn uc p dng cho th trung hng ha
tucmg lai nhng vn tn ti mt s im khc bit quan trng gia giao
dch chng khon v tng lai. Th nht, Dow cho rng da s cc nh
giao dch chi i theo nhng xu hung chinh v s dng s hiu chinh
56 John J. Murphy
trung gian de xc dinh then diem. Dow cho rang n .mg xu huong nh
dng vai tro khng quan trong. Hien nhien, truong hop ny khng xy
ra trong giao dich tucmg lai vi cc nh giao dich theo xu huong sr dung
cc xu huong trung gian thay vi xu hung chinh. NhCrng nh giao dich
loai ny phi dc biet ch y den nhCrng dao dng nh de xc djnh thoi
diem. Neu ky vong mt xu huong tng cap trung se keo di trong vi
thng, cc nh giao dich tucmg lai se ch doi mt vng day trong ngn
han lam tin hieu mua. Trong mt xu hung gim gi trung han, cc nh
giao dich dua tren nhCrng dot phuc hoi nh de xc dinh tin hieubn
khong. Chinh vi the m nhung xu huong nh dng vai tr rt quan
trong trong giao dich tuong lai.
' CCH T H frC M I TRONG Vlc S DlfNG '

C H I S DOW d GIAO DICH
100 nm d4u ticn trong lieh s phat trien ca minh, Chi so trung
binh cng nghiep Dow Jones (tu day duoc goi l chi so Dow Jones)
chi duoc s dung nhu mt chi bao thj trudng. Su thay doi xuat hien
ke tu ngy 6 thng 10 nm 1997, khi thi truong tuong lai v quyen
chon lan dau tien giao djch dua tren chi so uy tin ny. San Chicago
Board of Trade ban hnh mt hop dong tuong lai dua tren chi so
Dow Jones, trong khi quyen chon ca chi so Dow (viet tt DJX)
cng bat dau duoc giao djch tren sn giao dich quyen chon Chicago.
Ngoi ra, quyen chon cng duoc giao dich tren sn Dow Jones
Transportation (viet tt DJTA) v Dow Jones Utility (viet tit
DJUA). Vo thng Gieng nm 1998, Sn American Stock Exchange
bt du giao djch Diamond Trust, mt to hop y thc dau tu m
phng theo chi so 30 Dow Industrials. Ben canh do, hai quy ho
tuong cng duoc de xut dua tren chuan di snh 30 ca Dow. Hn
Dow se rat hanh phc neu biet duoc rng 100 nm sau ngy duoc
cng bo, moi ngucri c the giao djch chi so trung binh ca ng v p
dung ly thuyet Dow vo thuc tien.
v _ ____________________ _____ ____________________________ J
TM LC
Chucmg ny im li nhng kha cnh quan trng hn ca l thuyt
Dow. Khi i su vo nhng phn sau ca cun sch, bn s nhn thy
rng vic hiu uc v nh gi ng l thuyt Dow s to ra cho bn
mt nn tng vng chc di vi bt k mt nghin CU no v phn tch
k thut. Phn ln nhng g chng ta tho lun v sau s l s ng dng
l thuyt Dow. Bng cch ny hay cch khc, nh ngha c bn v xu
hng, s phn loi xu hng thnh ba loi v k, nguyn tc tha nhn
v phn k, s gii thch v khi lung giao dch v cch s dng thoi
li theo t l phn trm, tt c u uc bt ngun t l thuyt Dow.
Ngoi nhng ngun uc trch dn trong chuong ny, bn c c th

xem li nhng nguyn l ca l thuyt Dow uc th hin mt cch
xut sc trong cun Phn tch k thut xu httng th trng chng
khon (Technical Analysis o f Stock Trends) ca Edward v Magee.
CHNG 3
Lp th
G I I TH IU
Chung ny dnh cho nhng c gi chua quen vi vic to dng

th thanh. Chng ta s bt u bng vic tho lun cc dng th hin
c v sau d tp trung vo loi d th uc s dng ph bin nht -
th thanh hng ngy. Chng ta s xem xt cch thc m d liu v gi
c ghi nhn v dng thnh th. Ngoi ra cn c khi lng giao
dch v s lng hp ng cha tt ton. Sau d, chng ta s tim hiu
v nhng bin thin ca th thanh, bao gm th tun v thng vi
phm vi rng hn. Sau kh lm quen vi tt c nhng khi nim ny,
chng ta s xem xt cc cng c phn tch uc s dng loi th ny
trong nhng chng sau. Nhng dc gi no d thnh tho vi cc dng
th trn c th b qua chng ny nu cm thy n qu cn bn.
CC DNG TH
th thanh hng ngy c s dng rng ri nht. Tuy nhin, cc nh

phn tch k thut vn dng nhng loi nh th dng ng k,
th im v hnh hoc gn y nht l th nn. Hnh 3.1 l mt v d
v th thanh hng ngy. N uc t tn l th thanh l v bin
giao dch mi ngy c i din bi mt thanh nm dc. Trn thanh
c gi m ca, dng ca, cao nht, thp nht. Du gch v pha phi
60 John J. M u y
Hnh 3.1 Mt J th banh hng ngy ca Intel. Mi thanh dc th hin bin

ng gi trong mt ngy.
Hnh 3.2 Mt th dng ng k ca Intel. Dng th ny to ra mt

ng ni lin cc mc gi ng ca in tip ca tng ngy
thanh dc l gi dng ca. Gi m ca l du gch v bn tri thanh.
Hnh 3.2 cho thy d th dng ng k th hin tnh trng th

trung. Trong th dng ng k ch hin din gi ng ca ca tng
ngy lin tip. Nhiu ngui s dng th cho rng do gi ng ca l
gi quan trng nht trong ngy nn mt th dng ng k (hay d
th gi ng ca) chinh l cng c ph hp hem trong vic nh gi hot
ng ca gi c.
Dng th ba - th im v hnh - c dn ra trong hnh 3.3. Nn

luu rng th hnh v im th hin bin ng gi ging nhau nhng
theo mt nh dng c ng hon, bao gm cc ct X v 0 xen k. Ct X
th hin gi tng v ct o th hin gi gim. Tin hiumua v bn s
chinh xc hon v d xc nh hn khi uc ua vo th hnh v im
so vi khi uc th hin trn th thanh. Thm chi, th hnh v
Hnh 3.3 Do th im v hnh ca Intel. Hy ch nhng ct X v o. Ct X

th hin gi tng vo th hin gi gim. Tin hiu mua v bn chnh xc hn
trong th ny.
62 John J. M u rp h y
diem con c nnieu dc tinh linh hoat hon v ban co the tim thay thong
tin ve loai do thj ny trong Chuomg 11.
B TH I HINH NfeN
Do thi hinh nen la dang do thi thanh phien ban Nhat v dang trd nen rat
pho bien trong nhng. nam gan day trong cong dong giao djch phuomg
Tay. Nhng cay nen Nhat ghi nhan 4 loai gia giong voi do thi thanh
truyen thong la mo ca, dong ca, cao nhat v thap nhat. Tuy nhien,
cch the hien tren do thi thi khc. Tren do thi hinh nen, mot duong ke
manh (duoc goi la bong mo) the hien bien do gi ca ngay hm d tu
cao xu6ng thap. Mot phan to hon (duqc goi la than nen) xc djnh
khong cch tu gi m d cua den dng cua. Neu gi dong cua cao hon gi
m o cua, than nen se co mau trng (gi tri tng). Neu gi dng cua thap
hon m d ca, thn nen se mu den (gi tri gim). (Xem hinh 3.4)
Hinh 3.4 Do thi hinh nen ca Intel. Mu ctutcac cy nen duoc xc dinh boi
mi quan he gia gi maca v gi dng ca. Nen trng the hien gi tang v
nen den the hien gi gim.
im then cht ca th hinh nn l mi quan h gia gi m ca

v ng ca. C th v d th hnh nn dang ngy cng tr nn ph bin
nn cc nh s dng d th phng Ty ch nhiu hon n ung
gch biu th gi m ca trn th thanh. Vi th hnh nn, bn c
th lm bt k th gi nhu vi th hnh thanh. Ni cch khc, nhng
cng c v chi bo k thut m chng ti gii thiu trong d th thanh
u c th uc p dng vi d th hnh nn. Chng ta s ni nhiu hn
na v cch thc dng th thanh theo tun v thng. n c th thc
hin tucmg t vi th hinh nn. Chong 12 th hnh nn s gii
thch nhiu hon v cch v nhng cy nn ny.
THANG O S H C V THANG O L-GA
Vic dng d th c th c thc hin bng cch s dng thang o s

hc hoc thang o l-ga. i vi mt $0 kiu phn tch, c bit l phn
tch xu hung rt di hn, vic s Thango Thango
dng th l-ga c nhiu im sohc li -g*
thun li. (Xem hnh 3.5 v 3.6). 10 r- 109
Hnh 3.S s cho chng ta thy 9- 8 *
7
dc s khc bit khi s dng hai 8 6
loi thang do ny. Vi thang o so 7 s_
hc, trc gi nm dc cho thy 6 4-
khong cch bng nhau cho mi 5 3
n v gi thay i. Luu rng,
4-
trong v d ny, mi im theo
5 2
thang do s hc u cch u
nhau. Tuy nhin, trn thang l-ga, 2-
mc tng theo t l phn trm i -
(khong cch) nh dn khi gi 0 X
tng dn. Khong cch t im 1 _ . i
, ,M Hnh 3.5 So snh gia thang o s
n 2 bang khong cch t im 5 to c y : l_ga Luu rng hnk bn
n 10 bi v c hai u th hin tri th hin cc khong cch bng
S gia tng gp i v gi. V d, hau, trong khi hnh bn phi the
.____> i . ,. , . hin s thay i theo t l phn trm.
trn thang o s hc, khoang cch .
64 John J. Murphy
Hnh 3.6 D th di hn ca Intel dng hai loi t l gi khc nhau.

th bn tri th hin t l s hc truyn thng. th bn phi th hin t l
l-ga. Ch rng ng xu hung tng trong thi hn 3 nm uc th hin
r rng hn trn thi l-ga.
t im s n 10 bng khong cch t im so n 55 mc d s bin

ng t im s n 10 cho thy s gia tng gp i v gi trong khi s
bin ng t im so n 55 chi tng 10%. Gi uc th hin trn thang
o t l hay I-ga cho thy khong cch bng nhau cho s thay i theo
t l phn trm nh nhau. V d, khong cch t im 10 n 20 (tng
100%) s bng khong cch t im 20 n 40 hoc 40 n 80. th
l-ga c s dng nhiu trong chng khon trong khi th s hc li
c dng cho th trung tng lai. Nhng phn mm v th cho
php chng ta s dng c hai loi thang o ny nh uc ch ra
trong hinh 3.6
DNG TH THANH HNG NGY

Vic dng th thanh hng ngy v cng on gin. th thanh bao
gm trc gi v trc thi gian. Trc honh (trc y) th hin gi ca hp
ng. Trc tung (trc x) ghi nhn thng tin v thi gian. Ngy thng
c ghi dc theo y ca d th. Ngi s dng d th ch cn v mt
thanh dc trong ngy tuong ng t mc cao nht n mc thp nh

(c gi l bin ). Hy v mt on ngn nm ngant bn phi thanh
dc th hin mc gi ng ca trong ngy. (Xem hinh 3.7)
L do cho vic v mt on ngn bn phi thanh dc phn bit

n vi gi m ca c ngi s dng th nh d a bn tri thanh
dc Sau khi th hin hot ng giao dch ca ngy hom trn th,
ngi dng di chuyn sang bn phi v hat ng ca ngy k tip.
Mi ngi thng s dng th mt tun gm 5 ngy giao dch.
th khng th hin ngy cui tun. Neu sn giao dch b ng ca vo
bt k ngy n trong tun giao dch, ngy hm s c trong.
Nhng thanh c y th khi lng giao dch.(Xem hnh 3.7)
Hnh 3.7 o th thanh hng ngy ca Intel. Mi thanh th hin bin gi

ca mt ngy. Gi m ca c nh du bng mt vch ngang bn tri moi
thanh. Vchth hin gi ng ca nm bn phi. Nhng ng sc di y
o th kiti urig giao dch mi ngy.
66 John J. Murphy
KHI LNG GIAO DCH

Mt yu t quan trng khc cn phi ni n khi $ dng th thanh
l khi lung giao dch. Khi lng giao dch l tng lung giao dch
trn th tmng trong mt ngy. N l tng s hp ng tuong lai uc
giao dch hoc s c phiu ph thng uc trao tay trn th trng
chng khon trong ngy. Khi lng giao dch uc ghi nhn bng mt
thanh dc ti y th nm dui thanh gi trong ngy. Thanh khi
lung giao dch cng cao c ngha l khi Itrng giao dch ngy hm
cng ln. Ngc li, thanli cng nh th khi lung cng t. Mt thang
o nm dc y th c to ra d th hin cc s liu nh trong hnh
3.7.
S LNG HP NG TNG LAI CHA TT TON
Khi lng hp ng cha lt ton (Open Interest) l tng s hp ng

tung lai cn tn dng uc cc nh giao dch tham gia th trng nm
gi cui ngy. Khi lng hp ng chua tt ton l s lung hp ng
cn tn ng bi cc v th mua hoc bn, ch khng phi tng s ca
c hai. Nn nh rng vi chng ta ang ni n cc hp ng tuong lai
nn mi mt v th mua s phi c mt v th bn tuong ng. i vy
m chng ta cn phi bit uc tng s lng ca mt bn. s lng
hp ng cha tt ton uc th hin trn th bng mt dng k lin
dc y, thng l nm trn khi lung giao dch v di ng gi.
(Xem hnh 3.8)
05/23/97 THI phlo Chlnb p h i 06/98 (TR0698)_____________ 02/24/98
Hnh 3.8 o th hng ngy dng ung k ca hp ng tung lai Tri phiu
Chinh ph. Nhng ung thng ng dc y th hin tng khoi lng giao
dch hang ngy. Mt ung k gia th hin tng s lung hp ng cn tn
ng trong th trung tng lai Tri phiu Chinh ph.
Tng khi lng giao dch trong s i snh vi khi lung giao
dch ring l v s lng hp ng tng lai cha tt ton
Cng vi phn ln cc nh phn tch k thut ca th trng tung lai,
cc dch v lp th trong th trng ny chi s dng tng khi lng
giao dch v s lng hp ng chua tt ton. Mc d cc s liu ny
l sin c cho tng thng ring l, song tng s liu ca tng th trng
hng ha l nhng gi duc s dng cho mc ch d bo. iu ny
uc bt ngun t mt l do rt hp l.
Trong nhng giai on mi pht trin ca vng i hp ng tucmg

lai, khi lung giao dch v s lung hp ng chua tt ton thng
chim mt lng kh nh. Cc s liu c thu thp li khi hp ng
ti k hn thanh ton. Tuy nhin, trong nhng thng cui truc khi mn
hn, nhng s liu ny bt u gim tr li. Hin nhin l cc nh giao
dch phi thanh l nhng v th m mt khi hp ng mn hn. Do ,
68 John J. Murphy
su gia tng ve so lucmg trong nhfing thng dau ciia vng dcri hop dong
cfing nhu su suy giani a gan giai doan cuoi ca quy trinh giao djch
chng co y nghla gi doi voi chieu hudmg thi tnrcmg va chi l mt chc
nng trong dc trung vng dcri giai han ca mt hop dong hng hoa
tuong lai. Ni chung, de tao ratinh lien tue can thiet vekhoi krong giao
djch v so luong hap dng chua tat ton dong thai mang lai cho chng
gi tri du bo, ngui ta sir dung long so luong ca thj trung hng ha.
(cc do thj chng khon the hien so lieu tong khoi luong giao djch
nhung khng bao gom so luong hop dong chua tat ton.)
Khoi luong giao djch v so luong hop dong chua tat ton duoc
bo co tri mt ngy trong thi trung tuong lai
Khoi luong giao djch v so luong hop dong chua tat ton tren thj trung
tuong lai duoc bo co tre mt ngy. Do d, ngui sir dung d thj phi
chp nhn su chm tre mt ngy de thu thp v dien gii dir lieu. Cc
con so thurig duoc bo co vo gi giao djch ca ngy hm sau, nhung
lai qu mun de cng bo tren cc t bo ti chinh ngay hm d. Tuy
nhien. con so uc tinh khoi luong giao djch sau khi thi trung dng ca
lai c sin v duoc cng bo tren bo chi vo sang hm sau. C the khng
that chinh xc nhung it ra con so uc tinh khoi luong giao djch cng c
the cung cap cho cc nh phn tich ky thut thj trung tuong lai thng
tin ve viec lieu hoat dng giao djch se si dng hon hay am dam hon
trong ngy hm truc. Boi vy cho nen nhng gi m dc gi c duoc
tr bo chi pht hnh sang sm chinh l gi tuong lai ca ngy hm
truc cng vi cc so lieu ve khoi luong giao djch uc tinh. Tuy nhien,
con so khoi luong giao djch chinh thc v s6 lieu hop dong chua tat
ton l ca ngy truc d. Cc nh sr dung do thj tren thj trung chng
khon thi khng gp phi van de ny. Tong khoi luong giao djch cho
thj trung chng khon c hieu luc ngay tue thi.
Gi tri ca khoi luong giao dich rieng le v s luong hop dong

chua tat ton trong thi trung tuong lai
Cc so lieu ve so luong hop dng rieng le chua tat ton trong thj trung
tuong lai s to ra nhng thng tin gi tr. Chng cho la bit c hp

ng no c tnh thanh khon nht thc hin giao dch. Thng
thng, hot ng giao dch nn c gii hn i vinhng thng ghi
nhn c giao dch vi s lng hp ng cha tt ton cao nht. Nhng
thng no c s lng hp ng cha lt ton thp s b b qua. Nhu
vy, s lng hp ng chua tt ton cng cao th li nhun trong thng
duc ghi nhn cng ln.
TH TH AN H TUAN v t h n g
Chng ta ni v th hng ngy. Tuy nhin, phi bit rng ta c th

v th thanh cho bt k mt giai on no. th thanh trong ngy
o lung cc mc gi cao nht, thp nht v mi nht trong mi s pht.
th thnh hng ngy bao gm s bin ng gi trong khong t su
dn chn thng. Tuy nhin, i vi phn tch xu hng c phm vi rng
hn, chng ta cn s dng th tun v thng. Gi tr ca vic s dng
nhng loi th di hn ny uc nhc n trong Chng 8. Phng
php thit k v cp nht cc loi th ny v ca bn l nh nhau.
(Xem hnh 3.9 v 3.10)
Trn th theo tun, mt thanh th hin hot ng gi cho c tun.

Trn th thng, mi thanh th hin bin ng gi ca c thng. R
rng, bng vic nn bin ng gi, biu tun v thng tnh n vic
phn tch xu hng di hn hcm. Trong khi th tun c th th hin
c qung thi gian truy hi 5 nm thi d th thng th hin uc
khong thi gian ln n 20 nm. y l mt k thut dn gin c th
gip ngi s dng d th nghin cu th trung vi vin cnh di hn
hn - mt vin cnh ng gi m th theo ngy khng th c dc.
70 John J. Murphy
HQnh 3.9 th thanh theo tun th hin ch s -la M. Mi thanh th hin

d liu gi ca m i tn, Bng vic nn d u gi, th thanh theo tun tinh
n vicphn tch xu hng gi di hn hn, thng l trong khong 5 nm.
Hnh 3.10 th hnh thanh theo thng th hin ch s -la M. Mi thanh

th hin d liu gi ca mt thng. Bng vic nn d liu nhiu hn na,
th theo thng tinh n vic phn tch cho khong thi gian di n 20 nm.
K T lun
Gi y, chng ta bit cch to ra mt th thanh v dc gii thiu

v ba ngun thng tin cn bn - gi, khi lng giao dch v s lng
hp ng chua tt ton - v chng ta sn sng xem xt cch thc din
gii d liu. Hy nh rng d th chi lu tr cc d liu. Bn thn
th c t gi tr. iu ny uc vi von nh cy c v tm vi. Bn thn
chng khng h c gi tr, nhng di bn tay ca ngi ngh s ti hoa,
chng s gip to ra nhng bc tranh p. Cng c th so snh vi con
dao phu thut. Qua bn tay ca v bc s ti ba, con dao m c th cu
sng sinh mng bao ngiri, nhung v bn tay ca chng ta, con dao y
tr nn khng nhng v dng m cn rt nguy him. Mt th c th
tr thnh mt cng c cc k hu dng cho vic d on th trng nu
ngui s dng nm vng cc nguyn tc. Hy bt u lm quen vi vic
ny. Trong chng tip theo, chng ta s tm hiu mt s khi nim cn
bn v xu hung v nhng diu m ti cho l nn tng co bn ca phn
tch th.
CHNG 4
Nhng khi nim C bn

X
v xu hng
NH NGHA x u HNG
Khi nim xu hng l yu t c bn i vi phung php phn tch k
thut phn tch th trung. Tt c cc cng c dnh cho ngi s
dng th nhu ngng h tr v khng c, m hnh gi, ng trung
bnh di dng, ng xu hung, v.v... u c mt mc ich duy nht l
gip xc nh xu hung ca th trung c th tham gia vo xu hng
. Chng ta thung nghe thy nhng cu quen thuc nh phi lun
giao dch theo chiu hng ca xu hung, dng i lch xu hng,
hoc xu hng l ngi bn ng hnh. Vy th hy cng nhau xc
nh xem xu hung l g ng thi phn loi chng thnh mt s nhm.
Nhn chung, xu hung chi dcm gin ] chiu hung cng nh cch
thc dch chuyn ca th trung. Nhng chng ta cn c mt nh ngha
chnh xc hn. Truc ht, th trng khng bao gi di chuyn theo mt
ng thng v bt k hng no. S bin ng ca th trng bao gm
hng lot chuyn dng zc zc. Nhng ng zic zc ny ging nhng
t sng lin tip bao gm cc inh v y r rt. Chiu hng ca
nhng inh v y ny cu thnh xu hng th trng. Cho c i
ln, xung hay i ngang th nhng inh v y ny cng cho ta thy xu
hmg ca th trung. Mt xu hng c gi l tng khi cc dinh v
74 John J. Murphy
y lin tc i ln, nguc li, mt xu hng uc gi l gim khi cc

dinh v y i xung; cn cc nh v y nm ngang s to nn mt
xu hung i ngang (khng r xu hung).
Hnh 4.1a
Vi d v xu
hung tng
vi nh v
y i ln.
Hnh 4.1b
V d v xu
hung tng
vi nh v
y i
xuong.
Hnh 4.1c Vi d v xu hung i ngang gm nhng inh v y

to thnh mt hng ngang. Dng th trng ny thng c
gi l "khng r xu hng
H nh 4.1d Vi d v mt xu huttg gim chuyn thnh xu hung tng. Phn

u bn tri l mt xu hutg gim. T thng 4 nm 1996 n thng 4 nm
1997, th trung dao ng khng r xu hng, cn giai on ma h nm
1997, th trung chuyn dch theo xu hung tng.
XU HNG C BA CHIU HNG
Chng ta ni n xu hung tng, gim v i ngang vi l do hp l.

Phn ln mi ngui thung c khuynh hng cho rng th trng lun
theo xu hung tng hoc gim. Nhng thc t cho thy rng th trng
bin ng theo ba hng: ln, xung v i ngang. iu quan trng l
cn nhn thc uc s tng phn ny bdi theo uc tnh thp hn so
vi thc t, ch t mt phn ba thi gian ny gi cng bin ng theo
mt bin nm ngang c gi l phm vi giao dch (trading range).
Dng vn dng i ngang ny phn nh mt giai on gi thng bng
khi p lc cung cu tng i cn bng. (Hy nh rng L thuyt Dow
th hin m hinh ny bng mt ng k lin). Mc d chng ta xc
nh th trung ng im khi c xu hng i ngang nhung mi ngi
thng xem n l th trung khng r xu hng.
76 John J. Murphy
v bn cht, hu ht cc cng c v h thng k thut u i theo

xu hung, c ngha l chng uc thit k cho nhng th trung tng
hoc gim. Chng thng vn hnh rt km khi th trng ri vo giai
on i ngang hoc khng r xu hung. Chnh trong nhng lc th
trung i ngang nh th ny, cc nh giao dch theo phuong php phn
tch k thut nm tri nhng cm gic tht vng nht cng nh nhng
thua l trm trng nht. Theo nh ngha, mt h thng tun theo xu
hung cn mt xu hung hot ng. S bt dng y khng phi
bi h thng m l do nh giao dch c gng p dng mt h thng vn
c thit k dnh cho th trng vn ng c xu hung vo mt mi
trung khng c xu hng.
Nh giao dch phi i mt vi ba quyt nh - mua, bn hc khng

lm g c. Khi th trng dang tng gi, chin lc mua c coi l ph
hp. Khi th tmng ang gim, quyt nh bn l iu cn lm. Tuy
nhin, nu th trng i ngang, quyt nh th ba - khng tham gia vo
th trng - thng c coi l la chn khn ngoan nht.
XU HNG C BA LOI
Ngoi s hin din ca ba chiu hng, xu hung cn uc phn chia
thnh ba loi nh dc cp trong chng trc. l xu hng
chinh, xu hng trung gian v xu hng ngn hn. Trn thc t, gn
nh khng th xc nh uc s lung xu hng c moi tung tc vi
mt xu hng khc, t xu hng [t ngn hn chi din ra trong vi pht
hoc vi gi ng h n nhng xu hung cc di din ra t 50 n 100
nm. Tuy nhin, hu ht cc nh phn tch k thut u gii hn phn
loi xu hung thnh ba loi. Tuy vy, y c mt s nhp nhng trong
cch nh ngha ca cc nh phn tch khc nhau.
V d, l thuyt Dow xp xu hng chinh nh l loi xu hung c

hiu lc trn mt nm. V cc nh giao dch tung lai hot dng trong
mt gii hn thi gian ngn hn so vi cc nh u t chng khon nn
chng ta c khuynh hung rt ngn xu hng chnh i vi bt c th
g trn 6 thng cho th trung hng ha. Dow xc nh xu hng trung
Phn tch k thut th trdng ti chnh 77
giangian hay xu hng th cp l 3 tun hoc nhiu thng - iu xem

ra kh ph hp cho th trung tng lai. Xu hung ngn hn uc xc
nh vi khong thi gian t hn 2 hoc 3 tun.
Mi xu hung l mt phn ca xu hung k tip ln hn. V d, xu

hng trung gian s l mt s hiu chinh trong xu hung chinh. Trong
mt xu hung tng di hn, th trung chng li d hiu chnh trong
mt vi thng truc khi quay li bc tng gi ca mnh. S hiu chnh
th hai s bao gm nhng t sng ngn hn c xc nh bi nhng
t phc hi ngn hn ngn hn. Tnh trng ny din ra nhiu ln - mi
xu hung l mt phn ca xu hung ln hon k tip v bn thn n cng
uc cu thnh t nhng xu hung nh hem. (Xem hnh 4.2a v b)
Trong hnh 4.2a, xu hung chnh tng vi nhng dnh v y di ln.

(im 1,2,3,4). Giai on hiu chinh (2-3) th hin s hiu chnh xu
hung trung gian trong phm vi mt xu hung tng chnh. Ty nhin,
hy luu rng sng 2-3 cng c plin thnh 3 sng nh hn (A,B,C).
Hnh 4.2a Vi d v ba cp ca xu hung: chinh, trung gian v ngn hn.

im 1,2,3 v 4 th hin xu hung chinh. Sng 2-3 th hin s hiu chnh
trong xu hung chinh. Mi sng trung gian ln ul li uc chia thnh nhng
xu hung ngan hn. Vi d, sng trung gian 2-3 c chia thnh nhng sng
nh A-B-C.
78 John J. M urphy
Hnh 4.2b Xu hig chnh trong nm 1997 tng (trn mt nm). Mt s

hiti chnh ngn KhlKn ra st thng 3. Mt s hiu chnh trung gian din
ra t thng 8 n thng IJ (trong 3 thng). S hiu chnh trung gian li tc
chia thnh ba xu hung ngn hn.
Ti im c, nh phn tch s cho rng xu hung chnh vn tip tc ng,

rong khi xu hng trung gian v ngn hn li gim. Ti im 4, c ba
xu hng u tng. Vic hiu r c s khc bit gia cc cp bc xu
hung khc nhau l rt quan trng. Khi mt ai hi v kiu xu hng
th trng, tht kh nu khng mun ni l khng th gii p cho
n khi bn bit uc ngi ang ni n loi xu hng no. n
c th phi tr li theo cch thc c nhc n trn dy thng qua
vic xc nh ba loi xu hng khc nhau.
C mt cht hiu nhm ny sinh do nhn thc khc bit ca cc nh

giao dch i vi khi nim v xu hng. i vi cc nh giao dch di
hn, s bin ng gi t vi ngy n vi tun c th khng my quan
trng. Nhng i vi nh giao dch theo ngy, s gia tng trong hai hoc
ba ngy s cu thnh mt xu hung tng. iu c bit quan trng l phi
hiu c cc cp khc nhau ca xu hng v chc chn rng t c
nhng g dnh dng giao dch u ang cng cp n mt vn .
Nhn chung, hu ht cc phng php tun theo xu hung u tp

trung vo xu hng trung gian ko di trong vi thng. Xu hung ngn
hn ban du u c dng xc nh thi dim. Trong mt xu hung
lng trung gian, nhng diu chinh gim ngn hn s uc s dng
khi ng v th mua.
NGNG H T R V KHNG c
Trong phn tho lun v xu hng, chng ta ni r rng gi c bin

ng theo chui inh v y, v chiu hung ca chng xc nh xu
hng ca th trung. By gi chng ta s i vo tm hiu tn gi ph
hp ca nhng loi inh v y ny, ng thi gii thiu khi nim v
ngng h tr v ngung khng c.
Cc y, hay nhng vng lm, dc gi l ngng h tr. Nh chnh

ci tn ca thut ng ny cho thy, ngng h tr l mc hoc khu
vc trn th di ngng th trng, ni xu hung mua vo cao hcm
sc p bn ra. Kt qu l s st gi tm ngng v tng tr li. Thung
thi mt ngng h tr c xc nh bi mt vng lm trc .
Trong hnh 4.3a, im 2 v 4 th hin nhng ngng h tr ca mt xu
Hnh 4.3a Nhng ngung h tr v khng c trong xu hung tng. im 2

v 4 l nhng ngng h tr vn l nhng mc thp trc . im I v 3 l
nhng ngng khng c thumg uc tnh t nhng inh cao truc .
80 John J. Murphy
Hnh 4 J b Ngng khng c v h tr trong xu hung gim
hng tng. (Xem hnh 4.3a v b)
Ngng khng c hnh thc tri nguc vi ngng h tr v th

hin mt mc gi hay mt khu vc cao hn gi th trng vi p lc
bn ra cao hon mua vo v s tng gi cng quay tr li. Thng
thng, ngung khng c uc xc nh bi mt dinh xut hin trc
. Trong hnh 4.3a, im 1 v 3 l nhng ngung khng c. Hnh 4.3a
l mt xu hung tng. Trong mt xu hung tng, ngung h tr v
khng c cho thy mt m hnh i ln. Hnh 4.3b l mt xu hng gim
vi nhng inh v y i xung. Trong mt xu hng gim, im 1 v
3 l nhng ngng h tr dui mc th trng v im 2 v 4 l nhng
ngung khng c vut qu mc th tning.
Trong mt xu hung tng, ngung khng c th hin s tm nghi

trong xu hng v thung b vut qua ti mt s im. Trong mt xu
hng gim, ngung h tr khng mnh ngn nga hin tung rt
gi thung trc, nhung cn phi kim tra it nht l trong tm thi.
Vic nm c nhng khi nim v ngung h tr v khng c l

iu kin cn thit thu hiu xu hng. mt xu hung tng c th
tip tc din ra, mi mc lm k tip (ngung h tr) phi cao hon mc
truc . Mi ngung cao phc hi (ngng khng c) phi cao hon
mc trc . Nu vng y hiu chinh trong mt xu hng tng nm

bn dui ngng h tr trc , c th l mt tn hiu cnh bo
sm cho bit xu hng tng kt thc hoc t nht chuyn sang xu
hng i ngang. Nu ngng h tr b ph v, c th xu hng o
chiu t tng sang gim.
Mi ln ngng khng c trc uc kim nghim cng lc

m xu hng tng nm trong giai on c bit quan trng. S tht bi
trong vic vt qua nh truc ca xu hng tng, hoc kh nng gi
bt li t ngng h tr ca xu hng gim l tn hiu u tin cnh
bo rng xu hng hin ti ang thay i. Chng 5 v 6 v m hnh
gi s gii thiu v cch thc th hin s vic trn th ca vic th
nghim cc ngng h tr v khng c - iu m ch hoc s o chiu
ca xu hng hoc ch l s tm ngng ngh trong xu hng hin ti.
Nhng m hnh gi ny c hnh thnh da trn nn tng nhng
ngng h tr v khng c.
Hnh 4.4a-c l nhng v d v s o chiu xu hng kinh in. Hy

ch hnh 4.4a thy rng ti im 5, gi khng th vut qua nh
trc im 4 trc khi quay u i xung ph v ngng h
tr ti im 4. Chng ta c th xc nh c s o chiu xu hung
bng vic quan st nhng ngng khng c v h r. Trong phn v
m hnh gi. dng o chiu ny s c xc nh nh l m hnh hai
nh (double top).
Hnh 4.4a Vi d v s
o chiu xu hutig.
Khi gi im 5 khng
th vt khi im 3,
sau li tip tc ri
mnh ph v mc h
tr trc ti im 4
s to thnh mt m
hnh o chiu xu
hng gim. Dng m
hnh ny c gi
hai nh.
82 John J. Murphy
Hnh 4.4b Vi d v m hnh o ngc y. Thng thng, tin hiuu tin

c mt y chinh l kh nng gi ti im 5 s duy tr trn mc y trc
ti im 3. y ny s c xc nhn vng chc khi gi vt khi nh 4.
Hnh 4.4c Vi d v o chiu nguc y. Sut thng Ging nm 998, gi

ti kim nghim ngng h tr ca thng Chp v phc hoi tr li, hnh thnh
m t ngng h tr th hai. S ph v inh ngng khng c gia bo hiu
m t xu hung tng mi.
Ngung khng c v h tr trao i vai tr nh th no?

Chng ta xc nh ngng h tr nh l mc dy trc d v
ngng khng c nh l inh trc . Tuy nhin, mi vic khng
phi lc no cng din ra nh vy. Mt trong nhng kha cnh th v v
t uc bit n hem v ngng khng c v h tr chnh l vai tr o
nghch ca chng. Khi mt ngng h tr hoc khng c b ph v bi
mt lng ng k, vai tr ca chng s b o nghch. Ni cch khc,
mt ngung khng c s tr thnh mt ngung h tr v h tr tr thnh
khng c. hiu r hon ti sao li nh th, chng ta cn tho lun mt
so vn tm l n sau s hnh thnh ngung h tr v khng c.
Tm l hc ca ngng h tr v khng c
minh ha, ta hy chia nhng thnh vin tham gia th trng thnh
ba nhm - thnh phn mua, thnh phn bn v thnh phn khng tham
gia cuc choi' Thnh phn mua l nhng nh giao dch ginh uc
hp dng, thnh phn bn l nhng ngi chuyn sang v th bn v
thnh phn khng tham gia th trung l nhng ngui thot khi th
trung hoc vn chua quyt nh uc s tham gia vo v th no.
Gi s th trung dang bt u c bin ng tng t mt khu vc h

tr, noi gi dao ng mt thi gian. Nhng ngui mua (nhng ngui
d mua gn khu vc h tr) ang mng r, nhung li hi hn v
khng mua nhiu hn. Neu th tmng ri xung li gn khu vc h tr
ln na, h s gia tng v th mua ca mnh. Nhng ngui bn lc ny
nhn ra (hoc hoi nghi cc ) rng h d quyt nh sai v th th
trng. (Cch thc dch chuyn ca th tmng ra xa khu vc h tr s
tc ng mnh n vic ra quyt nh, nhung chng ta s quay li vn
sau). Nhng ngui bn hy vng rng (v cu nguyn) cho gi s
li ri xung khu vc m h bn ra c th ri khi th trung ni
m h d tham gia (im ha vn).
Cuc chi c th durc chia thnh hai nhm - nhng ngi khng
bao gi tham gia vo bt k mt v th no v nhng ngi v mt l
84 John J. Murphy
do nao do da thanh ly nhng v| the mua ca minh tai khu vuc ho tro.
Nhm th hai dircmg nhien dang phan no vi da lhanh ly nhng vi the
mua truc thi han v hy vong rang se c mot co hoi khac de phuc hi
nhung vi the mua gan diem ho ban ra.
Nhm cuoi ciing, nhm nhng ngircri do du, lc ny nhan thy gi

dang tng v nhat dinh tham gia vo thi trung vriri tu cch ben mua khi
c co hi mua tot xy ra lan na. Tat c bn nhm ny kien quyet se
mua trong lan gi rcri tiep theo. Tat c deu duoc dni bo quyen loi bat
di bat dich tai khu vuc ho tror d diroi mc gi thi trung. Le dt nhien
khi gi rcri xuong gan ngucmg ho tro d, viec c bon nhm ny deu mua
nhng vi the mi se khien gi tng len.
Dien ra cng nhieu tai ngucmg ho tro thi giao d jch cng tro nen quan
trong vi se c nhieu ngui tham gia thi trung c duoc quyen loi bat di
bat dich tai mc gi d. So luong giao djch tai mot khu vuc ho tro hoc
khng cu c the duoc xc djnh bang ba cch: luong thi gian b ra, khoi
luong giao djch v cch thc m nhng giao dich d va dien ra.
Chu ky thi gian cng dai, nai gi dutqc giao dich tai m ol ngifcmg
ho fror hoc khng cu, khu vuv do cng c y nghTa. Vi du, neu gi dao
dng khng r xu hirong trong thi gian 3 tuan trong mt khu vuc ging
co gi trucrc khi tng cao hon thi khu vuc ho tro d se tro nen quan
trong hon thi han giao dich 3 ngy.
K hoi luong giao djch l mot cch khc de dnh gi m c do quan

trong ca ngucmg ho tro v khng cu. Neu ngung ho tro duoc hinh
thnh tu khoi luong giao dich lrn, chng to c mot so luong Ion dom vj
duoc trao tay, v dieu ny cho thay ngung ho tro d quan trong hom l
chi c mt so it giao dich dien ra. Do thi hinh v diem dnh gi hoat
dng giao djch trong ngy l cng cu dc biet hu ich trong viec xc
djnh nhng mc gi ny, noi c nhieu giao dich diln ra nhat dong thi
cng l noi thich hop nhat de ngung ho tro v khng cu thuc hien chc
nng ca minh.
Cch th ba xc nh tm quan trng ca mt ngng h tr

hoc khng c l xem giao dch gn nht din ra nh th no. V ang
nhc n phn ng ca cc nh giao dch vi bin ng th trng v
vi cc v th m h va nm gi hoc khng th nm gi nn chng
ta c l do tin rng cng din ra gn y th hot ng giao dch cng
c ngha.
By gi, hy quay tr li vi cc bng biu v th hnh dung rng,

thay v tng, gi li gim xung. Trong v d truc, do gi tng nn
phn ng kt hp ca cc thnh phn tham gia th trung khin gi
rt xung nhm p ng vic mua b sung (do to nn mt ngung
h tr mi). Tuy nhin, nu gi bt u gim v ri xung di ngung
h tr tnic th phn ng s din ra nguc li. Tt c nhng ngi
mua ti ngng h tr by gi nhn ra rng minh phm sai lm. i
vi cc nh giao dch tcmg lai, nhng c nhn/t chc mi gii ca h
s in cung yu cu b sung tin lc qu. Vi tnh n by cao ca giao
dch tucmg lai nn cc nh giao dch khng th ngi yn vi vic thua
l ko di. H buc phi tng thm tin k qu hoc phi chm dt
nhng v th ang thua l ca mnh.
Nhng g to nn ngng h tr trc ht chnh l u th ca lnh

mua khi gi thp hcm gi th trng. Tuy nhin, by gi tt c nhng v
th mua khi th trung gim gi tr thnh lnh bn trong th trng tng
gi. Ngng h tr bin thnh ngng khng c. V khu vc h tr
truc cng quan trng - ngha l thi gian din ra giao dch cng gn
cng s lung giao dch din ra ti cng ln - th kh nng tr thnh
khu vc khng c cng ln. Tt c nhng yu t to nn ngung h tr
gm ba thnh phn tham gia th trng - ngui mua, ngi bn v
ngui ng ngoi th trng - s to nn mc gi trn cao hem nhng
mc gi hnh thnh sau mt t hi phc.
i khi cng cn phi tm dng li v suy ngm v l do ti sao m

hnh gi li uc s dng, v nhng khi nim nh ngung h tr v
khng c c tht s hiu qu hay khng. iu khng phi bi s k
diu ca th hay nhng dung k c v trn th. Nhng m hnh
86 John J, Murphy
ny c hiu qu v chng to ra bc tranh v nhng g m nhng ngu

tham gia th trng ang lm v gip chng ta xc nh uc phn ng
ca h vi nhng s kin trn thi tning. Phn tch th thc s l vic
nghin cu tm l con ngi v nhng phn ng ca cc nh giao dch
i vi nhng thay di ca th trung. ng tic l do ang sng trong
mt th gii y bin ng vi s pht trin nhanh chng ca cc th
trung ti chnh nn chng ta c khuynh hung da dm vo thut ng
th v nhng t ng ngn gn m xem nh nhng tc nhn c bn
to nn nhng m hnh trn th ngay t lc u. C nhng l do
thuc v tm l gii thch v sao ngung hS tr v khng c c th uc
xc nh trn d th gi v ti sao chng c th c s dng h tr
vic d on bin ng th trung.
Ngng h tr bin thnh khng c v ngc li: mc d ph v

Nu b ph y bi mt mc tng ng k, mt ngung h tr s tr
thnh ngng khng c v nguc li. Hnh 4.a-c cng tung t hnh
4.3a v b nhung dc tinh lc li. Luu rng khi gi ang tng trong
hnh 4.Sa th phn ng gi ti im 4 s ngng hoc trn nh ti im
1. inh truc ti im I l mt ngung khng c. Nhng mt khi n
Hnh 4.5a Trong mt xu hung gim, ngng h tr b ph v tr thnh

ngung khng c ca t phc hi sau . Hy luu cch thc m ngng
h tr ti im I tr thnh ngung khng c ti im 4.
P hn tch k th u t th tr n g t i chn h 87
Hnh 4.5b Trong mt xu hng gim, ngng h tr b ph v tr thnh

ngng khng c ca t phc hi sau . Hy lu cch thc m ngng
h tr ti im I tr thnh ngng khng c ti im 4.
Hnh 4.5c S chuyn i vai tr. Khi b ph v, ngung khng c u nm

997 li bin thnh mt ngng h tr.
88 John J. Murphy
bj ph v bi mt song 3, nguong khng cur truc d se bien thnh

nguong ho tro. Tat ca nhng giao dich ban gan dinh cua sng 1 (tao nen
ngung khng cu) hien da tr thnh vj the mua khi gia gim. Trong
hinh 4.5b, gi dang gim, diem 1 (la mot nguong ho tror truoc do trong
thj trucmg gi gim) hien da tro thnh mt nguong khng cur khi gi
tng tai diem 4.
Nhird tng de cp truoc d ring khong cch gi vuot khi ngung

ho tro hay khng cu tuong duong vdri muc d quan trong ca ngung
d. Dieu ny hon ton dng khi ngung ho tro v khng cu bi ph v
v bi thay doi vai tr. Vi du, ngung ho tro v khng cu chi bj thay doi
vai tr khi bj ph v vi mt gi tri dang ke. Nhung bao nhieu mi l
dng ke? O dy c mt cht ch quan trong viec xc djnh mc d y
nghla ca su ph v. Nhu mt chuan doi snh, mt so ngui sr dung
d thj s dung mc ph v 3% lm tieu chi, dc biet l doi vi nhng
ngung khng cur v ho tro chinh. Nhng khu vuc khng cu v ho tro
ngn han hon c the se di hi mt con so nh hon, chng han 1%. Tren
thuc te, moi nh phn tich phi tu quyet djnh the no l mt mc ph
v dng ke. Tuy nhien, can phi nh ring khu vuc ho tro v khng cu
chi do nghjch khi thj trung bien dng nhieu du de khien nhng ngui
tham gia tin ring ho dang pham sai lam. Thj trung bien dng cng ln
thi ho cng tr nen de bj thuyet phuc.
Tim quan trong ca cc con so lm trn vi tu cch l ngung

khng cur v h tro
dy c xu hung sir dung cc so lm trn de ngn chn viec tng hoc
gim gi. Cc nh giao djch c khuynh hung xem nhng so lm trn
nhu 10, 20, 25, 50, 75, 100 (v nhng bi so ca 1000) l muc tieu gi
v dua vo d de hnh dng. Chinh vi vy m nhng so lm trn ny
thung se dng vai tr nhu nhng ngung ho tro hoc khng cu mang
tinh tm ly. Mt nh giao djch c the s dung thng tin ny de bt dau
kiem li khi dat duoc con so lm trn gi quan trong.
Thj trung vng l mt vi du dien hinh cho hien tuong ny. Nm

1982, y ca th ting gi xung nm ti mc $300. Sau d, trong

qu mt ca nm 1983, th trng li hi phc ln trn mc $500 truc
khi rt xung ngng $400. Mt t hi phc gi vng vo nm 1987
dng ti mc $500. T nm 1990 n 1997, mi n lc ph v
ngung S400 ca vng lun tht bi. Chi s trung bnh Dow Jones
Industria] cho thy th trng c xu hng dng ti nhng mc bi s
ca 1000.
Mt ng dng ca nguyn tc ny trong giao dch l trnh t lnh

ti nhng m c s lm trn hin nhin ny. V d, nu nh giao dch c
t lnh mua khi gi rt mnh (buy on dip), vic t lnh gii hn ngay
trn s lm trn s ng vai tr quan trng. Vi nhng ngi khc dang
c mua vo ti nhng mc s lm trn nn th tnrng c the s khng
bao gi t ti uc im . Nh giao dch mun bn ra khi c mt
t hi phc nn t lnh gii hn ngay di con s lm trn. Hnh
ng nguc li s l khn ngoan nu t mt lnh t ngct l ti
nhng v th hin ti. Thng thng, nn trnh t lnh t ng ct l
ti nhng mc s lm trn.
Ni cch khc, lnh t dng ct l i vi cc v th mua nn c

dt dui nhng con s lm trn v nguc li, i vi cc v th bn, lnh
t ng ct t nn uc t bn trn. Xu hung th trng vi vic xem
trng nhng s lm trn, dc bit l nhng con s uc cp trc
chnh l mt trong nhng c im khc thung c chng minh
l hu ch nht trong giao dch v uc nhng nh giao dch k thut
th trung ghi nh.
UNG XU HNG
Chng ta d hiu v ngng h tr v khng c, v by gi hy cng
tim hiu thm mt trong nhng cng c k thut c bn khc - ng
xu hng (Xem hnh 4.6a-c). ng xu hng co bn l mt trong
nhng cng c k thut cm gin nht ng thi cng c gi tr nht i
vi ngi s dng th. ng xu hng tng l mt ung thng
hng ln sang phi ni lin nhng mc y thp nht nh trong hnh
90 John J. Murphy
Hnh 4.6a
V d v uiig xu hung
tng. tng xu hng
tng c v dui cc mc
y thp nht theo chiu
i ln. Mt ung xu
hung thm d c v
dui hai y cao k tip
nhau (im 1 v 3) nhung
cn c im 5 xc nhn
gi tr ca ng xu
hng .
Hnh 4.6b
M t ng xu
hung gim c v
bn trn nhng nh
hi phc thp hn.
Dung xu hng
gim thm d cH
hai im (1 v 3) v
mt ln kim nghim
th ba (im 5)
xc nhn gi tr ca
n.
4.6a. Mt ung xu hng gim c v hung xung ni lin nhng

dnh hi phc nh trong hnh 4.6b.
V dng xu hung
Vic v chnh xc cc ung xu hng l mt kha cnh quan trng ca
th v mt s th nghim vi cc ung khc nhau s gip tm ra
ung xu hung chnh xc. i khi, mt ng xu hng trng thi
chnh xc nhung cn phi c v li. Tuy nhin, y c mt s
nguyn tc ch o hu ch d bit uc u l mt ng xu hung
ng.
Hnh 4.6c. uttg xu hng tng di hn. Dug xu hung tng c v i

ln sang phi tirhai u tin(nhn mi tn). im y th ba u nm
998 bt ln chg t xu hng tng c duy tr.
Truc ht, phi c tn hiu ca m t xu hng. iu ny c ngha

rng v m t ung xu hung tng, cn phi c t nht hai y, trong
y th hai cao hn th nht. L nhin l ta cn c hai im
v mt ng thng. V d, trong hnh 4.6a, ch khi gi bt u ng t
im 3 th ngi v th mi tin rng m t y uc hnh thnh, v
sau ng xu hng tng mi c v t im 1 v 3.
M t s ngi s dng th m ong mun im 2 phi b ph v

xc nhn xu hng tng truc khi v ng xu hng, s khc li ch
cn m t s thoi li 50% ca sng 2-3, hoc gi tin dn n nh sng
2. Mc d tiu ch c th khc nhau, nhng m u cht vn l ngi v
th mun chc chc rng c m t y tng ng c hnh thnh
truc khi xc nh gi tr ca chng. Mt khi hai y tng dn u c xc
nh th m t ng xu hng s c v ni lin cc y, nh ln v
sang phi.
92 John J. Murphy
Dirong xu h irin g thm d tro n g su- di snh voi dirfrng xu h irin g

hop le
Cho toi gi, tat ca nhng gi chng ta dang co l mt dung xu httcmg

thm do. Tuy nhien, de xc dinh duoc gi tri ca dung xu huong thi
dung ny phi duoc da dng den Ian thr ba voi gia vuot khi no. Do
do, trong hinh 4.6a, viec kiem nghiem thnh cng dung xu hung tng
tai diem 5 da xc nhan gia tri ca duong ny. Hinh 4.6b cho thay mt
xu hiring gim voi nguyen tc khong c gi thay doi. Viec kiem nghiem
thnh cng diring xu hiring dien ra tai diem 5. Tom tai, chng ta can 2
diem de ve duong xu hiring v mt diem thu ba de bien n tr thnh
diring xu hu&ng hop le.
C ch sir d u n g d irin g xu h irin g
Khi diem thrba da duoc xc nhan v dung xu hiring van duy tri chieu
hiring ban dau ca minh thi dung ny thuc su c y nghla theo nhieu
cch. Mot trong nhng khi niem co bn ve dung xu hiring cho rng
mt dung xu hiring dang hoat dng se c khuynh hiring duy tri tinh
trang hoat dng ca n. He qu l khi tha nhn mt d doc hoc toc
d nhat dinh no d nhu da duoc xc dinh trii dung xu hiring, thi mt
xu hiring se van thung duy tri mt d doc nhu the. Dung xu hiring
khng nhng gip xc djnh bien d ca giai doan hieu chinh m cn c
the cho ta biet duoc thi diem thay doi ca xu hiring.
Vi du, trong mt xu hiring tng, su gim gi hieu chinh khng the

trnh khi thung se tiep xc hoc tien den gan dung xu hiring tng.
Bi dir dinh ca nh giao dich l mua vo khi gi thi tnring gim manh
trong xu hiring tng, dung xu hiring ny se tao ra mt ranh giai ho
tro khi gi gim - dieu duoc sr dung nhu l mt khu vuc mua. Diring
xu huong gim c the duoc s dung nhu l mt vng khng cu cho muc
dich bn (Xem hinh 4.7a v b).
Mt khi cn chua bj ph v thi diring xu hiring van cn duoc sr

dung de xc djnh khu vuc mua v bn. Tuy nhien, tai diem 9 trong hinh
Hnh 4.7a Khi ng xu hng tng c thit p, cc y tip sau gn

ung xu hng c th c xem nh mt khu vc mua. im 5 v 7 trong
hnh trn c thuc s dng cho nhng v th mua mi hoc gia tng. ng
xu hung b ph v ti im 9 buc nh u t phi thanh tt c cc v th
mua v bo hiu mt s o chiu xu hung gim.
Hnh 4.7b im 5
v 7 c thuc s
dng nhu khu vc
bn. S ph v
ng xu hung ti
m 9 bo hiu
mt s o chiu xu
hng tng.
4.7a-b, ng xu hng b ph v bo hiu mt s thay i trong xu

hng, i hi phi thanh l tt c cc v th theo xu hng tnrc .
Thng thng, ng xu hng b ph v l m t trong nhng tin hiu
cnh bo s thay i xu hng sm nht.
94 John J. Murphy
Cch xc nh tm quan trng ca mt irng xu hung

Hy tho lun v mt s tinh cht ni bt ca ng xu hng. Truc
ht, iu gi quyt nh tm quan trng ca mt ung xu hung? Cu
tr li bao gm hai phn: th i g ian th eo ng x u h ng khng th a y
i v so l n n c kim nghim , v d, mt ng xu hung c
kim nghim thnh cng 8 ln, tc l lin tc th hin uc gi tr ca
mnh, hin nhin s quan trng hn so vi ng chi c kim nghim
3 ln. Hon na, mt ng xu hng ko di trong 9 thng s quan
trng hn ung xu hung chi ko di trong 9 tun hoc 9 ngy. ng
xu hng cng c ngha th cng to uc nim tin v vic n b ph
v cng quan trng hn.
ng xu hng nn th hin tt c bin ng gi

ung xu hng trn th thanh nn uc v trn hoc dui bin
gi ca c ngy. Mt s ngi s dng th thch v ng xu hung
bng cch chi ni gi ng ca, nhng khng phi l mt phng
php ng chun. Gi ng ca c th l mc gi quan trng nht trong
ngy, nhng n vn ch i din cho s t hot ng giao dch ca ngy
hm . Phuong php tnh ton b bin gi ca c ngy c s
dng ph bin hn v n bao qut tt c cc hot ng giao dch. (Xem
hnh 4.8).
Hnh 4.8
Mt ung xu
humig ng
phi bao gm
bin giao
dich ca c
ngy.
Cch x l nhng t ph v khng ng k i vi ng xu

hng
i khi, gi c s ph v ung xu hng trn ca s giao dch trong
ngy, nhung sau d li ng ca theo hung xu hung ban du, khin
cc nh phn tch tr nn phn vn khng bit liu dng xu hung c
tht s b ph v hay chua. (Xem hnh 4.9) Hnh 4.9 l v d v mt
tinh hung nh vy. Gi rt xung di ng xu hng sut c
phin, nhung quay tr li ng ca trn ung xu hng tng. Vy
ng xu hng ny c cn urc v li khng?
Tht ng tic l khng c mt phung php no chng ta c th

tun theo mt cch nhanh chng. i khi, tt nht chng ta nn pht l
nhng s ph v nh l, dc bit l khi din bin ca th trng sau d
c th chng minh uc l ng ban du vn cn hiu lc.
iu g to nn.s ph v hp l i vi ng xu hng?
Thng thung, mt mc gi ng ca vt khi phm vi ng xu
hng vn quan trng hn mt c ph v trong ngy. Thm ch, i khi
Hnh 4.9 i khi, s ph v ung xu hng trong ngy s khin ngi s

dng th hoi nghi liu ng xu hung ban u vn c hiu lc hay cn
v mt i/ng mi. Hung gii quyt cho vn ny l gi nguyn ung xu
hng ban u nhung v thm mt ung ng sch chm cho n khi ta
xc dnh c ung no ng tin cy hn.
96 John J. Murphy
mt sir ph v muc gi dong ca cfing khng du. Da so cc nha phn

tich ky thut s dung nhieu cng cu loc gi v theri gian nhm phn biet
nhng c ph v dung xu hixemg dng ke v loai b nhng tin hieu xau
hay hien tuong lui cua (l hien tuong gi dang theo hiremg tng lai
c bien dng gim manh khien gi rot manh mt cch that thung v
ngircrc lai - ND). Mt vi du ve pheu loc gi l chuan m uc ph v 3%.
Chuan muc ny ch yen duoc p dung cho cc c ph v duong xu
huemg di han, it nhat l 3%. (Quy tc 3% khong duac p dung cho mt
so thj trudng ti chinh tuong lai, chng han nhu thj truerng li suat).
Vi du, neu gi vng ph vcr mt dung xu hirong tng tai muc S40.
gi c the se dng ca 3% ben dum duang d tinh tir diem n bj ph v
(trong trung hop ny, gi c the se dng ca a mc thap hon dung xu
hung S12, tue l tai mc S388). Hien nhien, chuan muc ph vd mc
S12 khng thich hop voi nhng giao dich ngn han. C ve nhu chuan
muc 1% se thich hop hon. Quy tc % chi l mt trong nhng cch loc
gi. Ngui s dung do thi trong chng khon se can mt c ph v triet
de v b qua nhng bien dng nh 16. O dy c mt sti tha hiep lien
quan den viec s dung bat ky dang pheu loc no. Neu qu nh, pheu
loc se v ich trong viec gim thieu tc dng ca hien tuong lui cua.
Neu n qu ln thi hau het bien dng ban d iu se bj b qua truoc khi
nhn thy tin hieu hop ly. Mot lan na, cc nh giao dich can phi xc
dinh chc chn rng loai pheu loc no se thich hop nhat voi cap d ca
xu hung theo sau trong khi van tha nhn su khc biet trong cc thi
trung rieng le.
Mt gii php thay the khc doi voi pheu loc gi (di hi mt dung
xu hung phi bi ph v bi luong gia ca gi hoc ty le phan trm
djnh truoc) chinh l pheu loc thi gian. Mt dang pheu loc th&i gian
pho bien l quy lut hai ngy. Ni cch khc, de c duoc mt su ph
v dng ke, gi phi dng ca ben tren dung xu hung trong hai ngy
lien tiep. Do vy, de ph v mt dung xu hung tng, gi phi dng
ca dudi dung xu hung trong hai ngy lien tue. Sur ph v mt ngy
se khng duoc tinh. Quy tc 1-3% v quy tac hai ngy cng duoc p
dng cho s ph v cc ngung h tr v khng c quan trng ch

khng ch ring cho dng xu hng chnh. Mt loi phu lc khc cn
mc gi dng ca vo th Su vut qua im ph v chnh m bo
tn hiu hng tun.
Cch thc hon i vai tr cia ng xu hung

Chng ta tng cp truc d rng ngng h tr v khng c s
thay i vai tr nu b ph v. i vi ung xu hng cng vy. (Xem
hnh 4.10a-c). Ni cch khc, mt ung xu hung tng (ung h tr)
s tr thnh ung khng c khi b ph v mt cch trit d. D l l
do ti sao y dc coi l tung tt hng tt c cc dng xu
hng v bn phi th cng xa cng tt ngay sau khi chng b ph
v. Tht bt ng l cc dng xu hng c thng vn hnh nh nhng
ung h tr v khng c trong tng lai nhung li hon i vai tr cho
nhau.
Hnh 4.10a
V d v u n g h tr
t n g g i tr th n h
d n g kh n g c.
t ng h tr s c
c h c n n g n h mt
u ng khng c i
v i t p h c h i sa u
, sa u k h i n b
p h v trn um g g i
i xung.
98 John J. M urphy
ffinh 4.10b
Mot duomg xu huang
giant thuang se tro
thanh duvng ho tro khi
bi pha vor do gia di
theo xu huang tng.
Hinh 4.10c Duong xu huomg cung co the dao nghich vai tro. Tren do thi nay,
duang xu hucmg tng bi pha va bien thanh duang khang ctr cua mot dot hoi
phuc sau do.
Chc nng do lng ca dng xu hng

ng xu hung c th c s dng xc nh mc tiu gi. Trong
hai chng tip theo v m hnh gi, chng ta s d cp nhiu hon v
mc tiu gi. Trn thc t, mt s mc tiu gi c ngun gc t cc m
hnh gi khc nhau u tng t nh vi ng xu hng. Ni mt cch
ngn gn thi khi iing xu hung b ph v, gi thng s di chuyn
vut qua ng xu hung mt khong bng vi khong cch tnh theo
chiu dc m gi t uc bn kia ca ng xu hng, trc khi xu
hung o chiu.
Ni cch khc, nu trong mt xu hung tng trc , gi bin ng

$50 ln trn ung xu hng tng (tnh theo chiu dc), th sau d gi
c k vng s rt S50 xung dui ng xu hng sau khi b ph v.
V d, trong chucmg tip theo chng ta s thy rng, vi vic s dng
ung xu hng, nguyn tc o lung ny s tcmg t vi ng xu
hng c s dng trng m hnh o chiu du v vai (head and
shoulder reversal pattern), trong khong cch t u n ung
vin c (neckline) s nh ra bn ngoi dung ny sau khi b ph v.
NGUYN TC HNH QUT

Phn ny a chng ta n vi cch s dng th v khc i vi dung
xu hung - nguyn tc hnh qut (The Fan Principle). (Xem hnh 4.11 a-
c). i khi, sau s ph v ca mt ng xu hng tng, gi s gim
mt cht trc khi phc hi tr li ti y ca ng xu hng tng c
(m by gi l ng khng c). Trong hnh 4.11 a, nn luu cch phc
hi gi d khng th vut khi ng s 1. Mt dng xu hung th
hai (dng 2) cng b ph v. Sau mt n lc hi phc b tht bi khc,
ung th ba ue v ln (ung 3). S ph v ng xu hng th ba
thng bo hiu kh nng gi s tip tc gim. Trong hnh 4.11 b, s
ph v ung xu hng gim th ba (ung s 3) to thnh tn hiuca
xu hng tng mi. Trong nhng v d ny, nhng ng h tr b ph
v trc tr thnh ng khng c v ngc li. Thut ng nguyn
tc hnh qut bt ngun t hnh dng ca nhng ung ny - chng ta
100 John J. Murphy
ra giong nhur nhfing canh quat. Can luu y rng sir pha v duang thir ba
la mot tin hieu dao chieu xu hu&ng hap le .
-
Hlnh 4.1 la Vi d u ve nguyen tc hinh q u a t Sir p h a v duang x u huong thir ba
bao hieu sir dao chieu x u huong. D uong x u huong I v 2 b i ph a v cng tror
thnh duang khang cu.
Hlnh 4.11b N guyen ta c htnh q u a t ta i day. S irp h a v ducm g x u huong thir ba

bao hieu s u dao chieu x u huong d i ten. D uong x u hung da b i p h v tru&c
d (I v 2) tr a thnh nhng ngung ho tra.
Hnh 4.1 lc Hnh qut c v ni cc inh tin tip nh trong th. S ph

v ng cnh qut thHa iftuatig bo hiu s bt u ca xu hung tng.
TM QUAN TR N G CA CON s 3
Trong vic nghin cu ba ng xu hung trong nguyn tc hnh qut,

c mt diu th v l con s 3 xut hin rt thung xuyn trong nghin
cu v phn tch k thut v ng vai tr quan trng trong nhiu
phuong php tip cn k thut. V d, nguyn tc hinh qut s dng ba
ng xu hng; cc th trung tng v gim gi chinh cng thng c
3 giai on c bn (l thuyt Dow v l thuyt sng Elliott); c 3 loi
vng trng (gap - vng khng c giao dch xy ra - ND); mt s m
hnh o chiu ph bin, chng hn nh m hnh ba inh (triple top)
hay m hnh vai v u, cng c ba inh ni bt; c ba nhm ung xu
hng khc nhau (chnh, trung gian v nh); ba chiu hng ca ng
xu hng (ln, xung v i ngang); trong nhng m hnh tip din uc
tha nhn, c ba loi tam gic - i xng, tng v gim; c ba ngun
thng tin c a bn - gi, khi lng giao dch v s lung hp ng chua
tt ton. D vi t do no i na th con s 3 vn xut hin ni bt toong
tnh vc phn tch k thut.
102 John J. Murphy
D0 DC TUONG DI CA DUNG XU HUNG

Do doc tucmg doi ca dung xu hung cflng rat quan trong. Nhin
chung, dung xu hung tng c xu hung nghieng 45 d - do doc quan
trong nhat. Mot so nguai chi don gin ve tir mt dinh hoc day noi bat
v sir dung n nhir mot dung xu hirong chinh. Duong 45 do la mot
trong nhng ky thut duoc W.D.Gann yeu thich. Dang dung nhu vy
phn anh tinh huong noi gi tng hoc gim eung mt ty le khien cho
gi v thi gian trong tinh trang cn bng hon ton.
Neu mt dung xu hung qu doc nhu dung 1 trong hinh 4.12, gi

se duoc cho l dang tng qu nhanh v miic tng hien tai sc khng ben
vng. Su ph v dung xu hung doc chi don thuan l su tut lai de c
mt dp doc ben vng hon l 45 d (dung 2). Neu mt dung xu hung
qu bng phlng (nhu hinh 3) c the cho thay xu hung tng qu yeu v
khng dng tin cy.
Hinh 4.12 Hau hei nhng diamg xu

hung c gi tri deu nghieng mol
goc khong 45 d (xeni dung 2).
Neu dung xu hung qua doc nhu
dung 1, thi kha nang gi di len
khng ln. Mt dung xu hung qu
bng phang nhu dung 3 thi lai
chng to xu hung tng qu yeu v
khng dng tin cy. Nhieu nh phn
tich ky thut sur dung dung 45 d
bt dau tir dinh hoc dy truc d
nhu l dung xu hung chinh.
Cch thuc dieu chinh dung xu hung

Di khi dung xu hung phi duqc dieu chinh de ph hop vi xu hung
tng hay gim. (Xem hinh 4.13 v hinh 4.14a v b). Vi du, nhu da trinh
by trong trung hop truc, neu mt dung xu hung d6c bi ph v, ta
phi ve them mt dung xu hung it doc hon. Neu dung xu hung ban
dau qu bng phng, ta phi ve lai thnh mt dung doc hon. Hinh 4.13
cho thay khi mt dung xu hung qu doc bi ph v (dung 1), mt
dung it doc hon (dung 2) phi duoc ve ra.
Hnh 4.13 V d v m t
ng x u hu n g qu dc
(ng ) . ung x u hung
tng ban u c dc qu
ln. Thung th s p h v
m t ng x u hung dc
ng c h i l s iu chnh
thnh m t ng x u hiing
tng chm hn V chc chan
han.
H nh 4.14a ng xu
hung ban du qu hng
p hng v p h i c v li
cho dc hn (dng 2). K hi
ung x u hung tng tng
tc th i hi p h i v m t
ng dc hn. M t ng
x u hung qu cch xa im
bin ng gi th thung il
c s dng theo di
x u hung.
Trong hnh 4.14a, ng xu hng ban u qu bng phng v phi

c v li cho dc hn (hnh 2). Khi ung xu hung tng tng tc th
i hi phi v mt ng dc hn. Mt ung xu hurmg qu cch xa
im bin ng gi th thng t uc s dng theo di xu hng.
Trong trng hp mt xu hung ang tng nhanh, i khi mt vi

ung xu hung phi c v li vi dc ln hn. Tuy nhin, theo
kinh nghim ca ti, khi cn v thm dung xu hung c dc cao
hn th phi s dng mt cng c khc - ng trung bnh di ng - l
dng ung xu hung cong. Mt trong nhng uu th ca vic s hu
nhiu dng ch bo k thut khc nhau l c th chn uc cng c
thch hp nht vi tnh hnh hin ti. Tt c cc k thut uc ni n
trong cun sch ny u hiu qu trong tnh hung no , nhung li
v hiu trong nhng tnh hung khc. Khi c nhiu cng c s dng
104 John J. Murphy
Hnh 4.14b Mt xu hung ang tng i hi phi c ung xu hung dc

hon nh hnh trn. Dng xu hung c dc ln nht l ci quan trng nht.
th nh phn tch k thut c th nhanh chng chuyn t mt cng c

ny sang cng c khc c th hiu qu hn cho tnh hung . Khi c
mt ung xu hng tng tc th mt ng trung bnh di ng s hu
ch hn so vi mt chui ung xu hng dc hn.
Ti mt thi im no c th c nhng cp xu hung khc

nhau, v th cn c nhiu ung xu hng khc nhau nh gi uc
nhng xu hung a dng ny. V d mt ng xu hng tng chinh c
th ni nhng im y ca xu hng tng chinh, mc d mt ung
ngn hon v nhy cm hn li c s dng cho xu hung trung gian.
Mt ung nh hn na c th nh gi c nhng bin ng ngn
hn hn. (Xem hnh 4.15)
NG KNH GI
ng knh gi (Channel Line), hay ng thu hoch (Return Line)l

mt bin th hu dng khc ca ung xu hung. i khi gi c xu
P h n tch k th u t th tr n g t i ch n h 105
Hnh 4.15 Nhng ng xu hng khc nhau dng xc nh nhng cp

xu hung khc nhau. ung trong vi d trn l v d v mt ng xu
hng tng c h in h gip xc n h mt xu huiig chinh. Dng 2,3 v 4 xc nh
n h n g xu hung t n g c p tru n g . Cui cng, ng 5 xc nh s t n g g i
ngn h n h a n ca xu hung t n g cp trung gn nht. Cc nh k thut s
dng nhiu dung xu hng khc n h a u trn cng mt th.
hng nm bn trong hai ung song song - ung xu hng c bn v

ng knh gi. Hin nhin, khi thc t ng nh vy v s tn ti ca
knh xu hng uc gii phn tch tha nhn, kin thc ny s uc s
dng d to ra li nhun.
Vic v ung knh gi tng i n gin. Trong mt xu hng

tng (Xem hnh 4. la), truc tin ta v ung xu hng tng c bn ni
cc y. Sau d, ta v mt ung gch chm t dinh u tin (im 2)
song song vi ng xu hung tng co bn. C hai ng u hung
ln v pha phi, hnh thnh mt knh gi. Nu t hi phc k tip
chm dn v bt li t dng knh gi (ti im 4), th knh gi c th
tn ti. Nu sau gi li ri nguc v ung xu hng ban u (ti
im S) th c kh nng knh gi s xut hin. Vi xu hung gim, tnh
106 John J. Murphy
Hnh 4.16a V i d
v knh xu hung.
Khi ungxu hung
tng c bn uc v
(dui im v 3)
th ung knh gi
hay ung thu
hoch c th s nm
trn nh u tin
ti im 2, song
song vi ng xu
hung chinh.
hnh cng din ra tucmg t (hnh 4.16b) nhung tt nhin l theo hng
ngc li.
Bn c chn chn s nhn ra tm quan trng ca tnh hung ny.

ng xu hung tng c bn c s dng bt u nhng v th mua
mi. ng knh gi c th uc s dng cho nhng hot ng kim
li ngn hn. Cc nh giao dich tch cc s dng ung knh gi bt
u mt v th bn nghch xu hng cho d vic giao dch theo hng
nguc li c th nguy him v tn km. Cng nh trng hp ca
ung xu hung cn bn, knh gi cng di v cng uc th thch
thnh cng nhiu ln th cng c ngha v bn vng.
Hnh 4.16b
M t knh xu
hng gim.
Knh gi gim
t y u tin
l im 2. song
song vi ng
xu hung gim
ni inh 1 v 3.
Gi thng s
nm bn trong
knh xu hung.
H nh 4.16c H y l u n m c dao ng g i gia ung knh g i song

song trn, v m trong s t 25 hm . nh ca nhng nm 987, 1989 v
1993 nm ngay ti ng knh gi trn. y nm 994 b b t l i t u n g x u
hng bn di.
Vic ph v ng xu hng chnh s bo hiu mt s thay i quan

trng v xu hng. Tuy nhin, s ph v ng knh gi tng li c mt
ngha ngc li, v bo hiu mt s tng tc trong xu hung hin ti.
Mt s nh giao dch xem vic lm r ng knh gi trn trong mt
xu hung tng nh l mt l do b sung cc v th mua.
Mt cch khc s dng k thut ng knh gi nhn ra s tht

bi trong vic tip cn ng knh gi, mt tn hiu cho thy s suy yu
ca xu hng. Trong hnh 4.17, vic gi khng th chm nh knh gi
(ti im 5) c th mt tin hiu sm bo hiu s thay i ca xu
hng v kh nng ng cn li (ng xu hung tng c bn) s b
ph v. Theo l thng, s tht bi ca bt c chuyn ng no trong
phm vi mt knh gi c hit lp nhm t c mt mt ca knh
gi cng thng cho thy rng xu hng ang thay i, v m gia tng
kh nng b ph v ca ng knh gi cn li.
108 John J. M urphy
Hnh 4.17 S tht bi

trong vic tip cn
ng knh gi trn
thung c coi l tin
hiu cnh bo kh
nng bi ph v ca
ng knh gi d i.
Hy luu rng, theo
sau tht bi trong vc
tip cn ng knh
gi trn ti im 5 l
s ph v ng xu
hng tng c bn ti
im 6.
Knh gi cng c th c s dng iu chnh ng xu hng

c bn. (Xem hnh 4.18 v 4.19). Thng thng, s bin ng vi mt
mc ng k trn ng knh gi tng s cho thy s bn vng ca
ng xu hung. M t s ngi s dng th v m t ng xu hung
tng c bn c dc n hcm t y gn nht song song v i ng
knh gi mi (nh trn hnh 4.18). Thng thung, m t ng h tr
mi c dc hn s hot ng tt hn so vi ng t dc. Tng t,
s tht bi ca m t xu hurng tng trong vic tip cn ng bin trn
ca m t knh gi chng m inh rng vic v thm ung h mi ti
y tng ng gn nht song song vi ung khng c mi nm trn 2
nh trc l ng (Xem hnh 4.19).
ng knh gi c chc nng o lng. K h i knh g i hin t i b ph

v, g i thng s d i chuyn m t khong bng chiu r n g knh gi .
Chnh v th m ngi s dng phi o chiu rng ca knh gi v d
tnh khong cch t im ph v ng xu hng.
Tuy nhin, cn lu rng trong hai ng , ng xu hng c

bn ng vai tr quan trng v ng tin cy hn nhiu. ng knh gi
ch l cch s dng th yu trong k thut ng xu hng. Tuy nhin,
vic s dng dng knh gi thng hiu qu trong vic iu chnh
cng c phn tch ca nh phn tch th.
Phn tch k thut th trng li chnh 109
Hnh 4.18 Khi ung

knh gi phia trn b
ph v (nh trong sng
5), nhiu ngi s v
li ng xu hung
tng c bn song song
vi dung knh gi
mi pha trn. Ni
cch khc, ung 4-6
uc v song song vi
ng 3-5. V xu
hung lng ang tng
lc, nn c l do tin
rng ung xu hng
tng s i nh vy.
Hnh 4.19 Khi gi

khng th chm ng
knh gi pha trn v
ng xu hung gim
c dng ln trn hai
inh ang gim
(ng 3-5) th mt
ung knh gi thm
d c the uc v t
im 4 song song vi
ung 3-5. i khi,
ung knh i phia
di cho thy v tri
hin th ngung h tr.
THOI L I T H EO T L PHAN trm
Trong tt c cc v d trc v xu hng tng v gim, c gi nhn

thy rng sau nhng bin ng c th th gi li li v mt phn so vi
xu hung trc trc khi tip tc dch chuyn theo hng ban u.
Nhng bin dng o chiu nh vy c khuynh hng thuc nhng
tham s t l phn trm nht nh c th c d on truc. n g dng
uc bit n nhiu nht ca hin tumg ny l t l thoi li 50%. Th
no John J. Murphy
lay vi du ve thi tnrcmg dang co xu hung tng gia vi muc dich chuyen
tu 100 len 200. Phn ng theo sau se thoi li 50% ca bien dng truc
do, tue l xung mc 150 truc khi xung luong tng gi duqc phuc hoi.
Dy l xu hung pho bien tren thi trung v xy ra kh thung xuyen.
Hem na, hien tuemg ny xy ra vdi tat c cc loai xu hung - chinh,
trung binh v ngan han.
Ben canh six thoi li 50% ccm c nhng tham so ty le toi da v toi
thieu duqc tha nhn rng ri: su thoi li mt phan ba v hai phan ba.
Ni cach khc, mt xu hung gi duoc chia lm ba phan. Thng
thung, su thoi li toi thieu l 33% v toi da l 66%. Dieu d co nghia
l trong su hieu chinh ca mt xu hung vng chc, thi trung thung
thoi li it nhat mt phn ba ca bien d bien dng truc d. Dy l
thng tin v cng hu ich bi nhieu nguyen do. Neu muon tim kiem
mt khu vue mua gi gim thi nh giao dich c the uc tinh mt vng
t 33-50% tren d o 'thi v su dung vng ny nhu mt khu vue chung cho
muc dich mua. (Xem hinh 4.20a v b).
Tham so thoi li toi da l 66% v duac coi l khu vue dc biet quan
trong. Neu xu hung truc d van duoc duy tri thi su hieu chinh phi
Hinh 4.20a Gi thung thoi li mt na so vi xu hung truc d roi lai

phuc hi theo hung ban dau. Vi du tren l thoi li 50%. Thoi li toi thieu
la mt phan ba v toi da l hai phn ba.
H nh 4.20b Ba ng nm ngang nh du cc m c thoi l i 38% , 50% v

62% c o ung l nhng m c thp thng 4 nm 1997 n m c cao ca
thng s. t thoi i u tin r t xuong ng 38% , t th hai ri xung
62% v ng th ba gn m c 50% . a so nhng s h iu chnh u c
ngung h tr trong khu vc t 38% n 50%. Cc ng 38% v 50%
nhng m c thoi l i F ibonacci v c ngi s dng th ng dng.
c ngng ti im hai phn ba. im ny tr thnh khu vc mua kh

an ton trong xu hng tng hoc khu vc bn trong xu hng gim.
Nu gi vt khi im hai phn ba, th kh nng xu hng s o
chiu hn l ch thoi lui. Sau , gi s thoi li 100% so vi xu hng
truc .
Bn c th nhn ra ba tham s t l thoi li - 50%, 33%, v 66% -

c bt ngun t l thuyt Dow. Khi bt u vi l thuyt sng Elliott
v t l Fibonacci, chng ta s thy rng nhng ngui ng h phng
php ny s dng mc thoi li 38% v 62%. Ti li thch kt hp c
hai phng php c vng thoi li ti thiu 33-38% v ti a l
62-66%. Mt s nh phn tch k thut lm trn nhng con s ny
c c vng thoi li 40-60%.
112 John J. Murphy
Cc hc tr ca W.D.Gann bit rng ng chia cu trc xu hng

thnh 8 phn - 1/8, 2/8, 3/8, 4/8, 5/8, 6/8, 7/8, 8/8. Tuy nhin, Gann
cng nh gi tm quan trng ca mc 3/8 (38%), 4/8(50%) v 5/8
(62%) v cho rng nn chia xu hung thnh nhng phn ba -1/3 (33%)
v 2/3 (66%).
NG KHNG c Tc
Lin quan n nhng phn ba, chng ta hy tm hiu mt k thut khc
kt hp ung xu hng vi s thoi li phn trm - ng toc .
uc Edson xy dng v pht trin, k thut ny chnh l s ng dng
l thuyt chia xu hung thnh nhng phn ba. N khc vi khi nim
thoi li phn trm ch ung khng c tc do lng tc gia
tng hoc suy gim ca mt xu hung.
v ng tc trong th trng gi ln, ta phi tim im cao

nht ca xu hng-hin ti. (Xem hnh 4.21a). T im cao nht trn
Hnh 4.21a Vi d v ung k h n g c t c ca mt xu h n g l n g . Khong

cch chiu dc t nh n im bt u xu hnng uc chia l m ba phn
bng nhau. Sau , h a i ungxu hung c v t im 1 n im 2 v im
3. Dng bn trn l ung t c 2 /3 v bn dui /3 . Nhng ung ny
s vn hnh n h ngng h tr trong n h n g l n h i n c h n h ca th tru n g .
Khi b ph v, c h n g tr th n h u n g khng c ca t hi phc. i khi
nhng ung tc ny gp v ct n g a n g ung bin ng g i .
P h n tch k th u t th tr n g ti chnh 113
Hnh 4.21b Dung t c trong mt xu hung gim

th, ta v mt ng thng xung y th ti ni xu hung bt
u. ng thng uc chia thnh ba phn bng nhau. Tip ,
ung xu hng s c v t ni xu hng bt u, i qua hai im
d uc nh du trn ng thng, th hin im mt phn ba v hai
phn ba. i vi xu hung gim, ch cn o nguc li quy bnh. Ta o
khong cch dc t im y trong xu hng gim n im bt u
xu hung, v hai ng t ni bt u xu hng bng qua hai im mt
phn ba v hai phn ba nm trn ng thng d.
Mi ln hnh thnh ngng cao mi trong xu hng tng hoc

ngng thp mi trong xu hng gim th ta phi c nhng dng tc
mi (v ta c nhng nh v y mi). Bi v ng tc c
v t im bt u xu hng n im mt phn ba v hai phn ba, nn
nhng ung xu hng ny i khi ct ngang ung bin ng gi.
iu ny din ra l bi ng xu hung khng c v dui nhng
mc thp hay trn nhng mc cao m li bng qua ng bin ng gi.
Nu xu hung tng ang trong qu trinh t hiu chnh th s hiu

chinh gim thng s ngng ti dung tc bn trn (ung 2/3). Nu
khng, gi s ri tip xung ung bn dui (ung 1/3). Nu ng
bn di b ph v th gi c th tip tc quay v im u xu hng.
Trong mt xu hng gim, s ph v ung xu hung bn dui bo
hiu kh nng phc hi ln ng bn trn. Nu n cng b ph v th
t phc hi s tin n dinh ca xu hung trc d.
114 John J. Murphy
Cng nh tt c nhng ng xu hng, ng tc cng o

chiu khi b ph v. Do d, trong thi gian din ra s hiu chinh ca
mt xu hung tng, nu ng bin pha trn (dung 2/3) b ph v v
gi rt xung ung 1/3 v hi phc t mc d, khi ng bin trn
tr thnh ngung khng c. Ch khi no ung bin trn b ph v th
mi bo hiu cc inh c s b th thch. i vi xu hng gim, quy
tc tng t cng c p dng.
NG QUT GANN V NG CNH QUT FIBONACCI
Phn mm v th cho php chng ta v m hnh qut Gann v ng

cnh qut Fibonacci. ng cnh qut Fibonacci uc v nhu ung
tc , ngoi tr vic n c gc 38% v 62%. (Chng ta s gii thch
nhng con s 38% v 62% bt ngun t u trong Chng 13 v L
thuyt sng Elliott). ng qut Ganrt (c t theo tn ca nh giao
dch hng ha hyn thoi _W.D.Gann) l nhng ng xu hng c
v t cc nh hoc y nh ln vi gc hnh hc c trng. ung qut
Gann quan trng nht l ung uc v t mt inh hoc y vi gc
45 . Nhng dng Gann c dc ln hn uc v trong nhng xu
hng tng vi gc 63 V v 75 . Nhng dng Gann t dc hn
li uc v gc 26 '/< v 15 . Ta c th v uc dn 9 ng Gann
khc nhau.
ung Gann v Fibonacci c s dng nh ung tc . Chng

c bn phn cung cp s h tr trong cc t hiu chnh gim gi. Khi
mt ung b ph v th gi s rt xung ng bn di. ng Gann
l mt ch thng gy ra tranh ci. Ngay c khi bt k mt ng
no ong s vn hnh th bn cng khng th chc chn trc l
dng no. Mt s ngui s dng th nghi ng v tinh chc chn ca
nhng ung k hnh hc ny.
NG XU HNG NI B
l nhng bin th ca ng xu hng khng da vo cc nh v
y xa nht. Thay vo d, ung xu hng ni b li uc v bng qua
Hnh 4.21c ung x u h u tig ni b c v bng qua dung bin n g gi

ni cng nhiuHnh v cngt. ng x u hung ni b uc v t n h n g
m c d in h u n m 1996 t o ra d u n g h tr Ii m s a u tr o n g s u t m a
x u n n m 997.
ng bin dng gi v ni cng nhiu dinh hoc y bn trong cng

tt. Mt s ngui s dng th tm hiu k v nhn thy dng ung
xu hung ny rt hu ch. v n l vic v ung xu hung ni b kh
ch quan trong khi cc quy tc v nhng ung xu hng truyn thng
qua nhng inh v y quan trng li chnh xc hcm. (Xem hnh 4.2 lc)
PHIN O CHIU
Mt vn cn bn cng kh quan trng khc l phin o chiu

(Reversal Day). Dng th c bit ny c rt nhiu tn gi - phin
do chiu inh (Top Rcversal Day), phin do chiu y (Bottom
Reversal Day), vng y hoc vng inh (Selling or Buying Climax) v
phin o chiu c bn (Key Reversal Day). Bn thn thut ng ny
khng c ngha ln, tuy nhin, khi uc dt vo ng cnh ca ngun
116 John J. M urphy
thng tin k thut khc, n lai ng vai tr quan trng. V th, chng
ta hy tm hiu phin o chiu l g.
Mt phin o chiu c th din ra ti mt nh hay mt y. nh

ngha c tha nhn ph bin v p h in o chiu nh l s thit lp
mt nh cao mi trong xu hng tng, sau i ng ca phin
mc thp hn. Ni cch khc, gi s to ra nh mi cho mt chiu
hng tng ti mt s im trong ngy (thung l bng hoc gn gi
m ca), sau yu i v thc s gim xung thp hn mc ng ca
phin trc . P hin o chiu y li c y thp mi v ng ca
mc cao hn.
in bin ng trong phin cng rng v khi lng giao dch

cng ln th kh nng ca tn hiuo chiu xu hng ngn hn cng
c ngha. Hnh 4.22a-b v d v c hai dng. Hy ch rng phin
o chiu c khi lumg giao dch ln hon. Han na, c nh v y ca
phin ny u vt khi bin giao dch ca phin trc , hnh
thnh nn m t p hin p h v (outside day). M c d khng phi l yu
Hnh 4.22a Vi d v m t phin Hnh 4.22b V d v phin o

o chiu nh. Khi lung giao chiu y,\ Neu khi lng c
dich cng n v bin cng bit ln th o chiu y c th
rng th ngha ca n cng cao. c xem nh "vng y".
Hnh 4.22c Vi d v thi phin o chiu tng g i h a y vng y ca ngy

28 thng 10 nm 1997. Gi m ca r t thp v ng ca r t cao. Thanh biu
th k h i lng giao dch cao b t thung ca n g y cng chng t tm q u a n
trng c a n . Hai phin o chiu tng g i nhe hon (xem mi l n ) cng n h
du nhng mc d y c ngha.
l to nn mt phin o chiu nhng phin ph v ny em li nhiu

ngha quan trng khc. (Xem hnh 4.22c)
Phin o chiu y thng uc xem nh mt vng y (Selling

Climax). y thung l mt s xoay vng mnh m ti y ca xu
hng gim, noi m nhng ngi mua nn lng rt cuc b bt ra khi
th trung vi khi lung giao ch ln. S thiu vng p lc bn to ra
mt khong trng trn th trng khin gi hi phc nhanh chng e
lp y khong trng . Vng y l mt trong nhng v d in hnh
v phin o chiu, d n khng bo hiu th trung gim chm y
nhung li cho thy s xut hin ca mt ngng thp quan trng.
118 John J. Murphy
o chiu tun v thng

M hnh do chiu dng ny xut hin trong cc d th thanh hng tun
v hng thng vi nhiu ngha quan trng hn. Trr th hng tun,
mi thanh th hin bin dao ng ca c tun kt thc vo Th Su.
Do , mt t o chiu tng gi tun s din ra khi th trng gim
trong sut tun thit lp mt ay mi cho s dch chuyn, nhung gi ng
ca ngy Th Su li cao hn mc ng ca ca Th Su truc .
o chiu tun c ngha quan trng hon o chiu ngy vi nhng

l do hin nhin v uc nhng ngi s dng th xem xt k lung
nh mt du hiu cho thy nhng im chuyn i quan trng. Tuong
tvy, o chiu thng thm ch cn quan trng hn.
VNG TRNG GI
Vng trng gi (Price Gap) l vng khng c giao dch trn th. V
d trong mt xu hng tng, gi m ca trn mc cao nht ca phin
trc, li mt vng trng khng c lp y trong ngy hm
trn th. Trong xu hng gim, mc gi cao nht trong ngy li thp
hn mc thp hm truc. Vng trng trong xu hng tng biu th sc
mnh ca th tmng, trong khi vng trng trong xu hung gim li
chng t th trng dang yu i. Vng trng c th xut hin trn th
tun v thng, v khi , chng rt c ngha. Nhng chng thng
xut hin ph bin hn trn th ngy.
C mt s quan im sai lm lin quan n cch din gii v vng

trng. Mt trong s nhng cu cch ngn l vng trng lun lun
uc lp y. iu ny khng ng. Mt s uc lp cn s khc li
khng. Chng ta thy rng vng trng c th c nhiu hm mang tnh
d on khc nhau da trn hnh dng v ni chng xut hin.
Cc dng vng trng

C ba loi vng trng - chy trn (breakaway), o lng (runaway hay
measuring), v suy yu (exhaustion).
Vng trng chy trn. Vng trng ny thung xut hin vo giai
on hon chinh mt m hnh gi quan trng v cng thumg bo hiu
s khi u ca mt bin ng th trung quan trng. Sau khi th trung
hon chinh mt m hnh gc chnh, ngung khng c thung xuyn b
ph v vi s xut hin vng trng chy trn. Nhng c ph v chnh
t vng nh hoc gc l mnh t sinh trng mu m cho dng vng
trng ny. S ph v ung xu hung bo hiu s o chiu xu hng
cng c th l mt vng trng chy trn.
Vng trng chy trn thng xut hin khi khi lung giao dch ln.
Gn nh cc vng trng ny khng uc lp y. Gi c th s quay tr
li pha trn ca vng trng (trong trung hp c s xut hin ca im
Hnh 4.23 Ba dng vng trng, vng trng chy trn l tin hiu ca s hon
thnh m hnh gc. Vng trng o lung xut hin phn gia (do chng
c gi l vng trng o lng). Vng trong suy yu theo hung i ln, xy
ra trong phm vi tun bi mt vng trng chy trn theo hung gim, li
mi cm o chiu Luu rng nhng vng trng chy trn v do lung
khng h dc lp y trong xu hung tng.
120 John J. M urphy
ph v theo chiu humg ln), v thm ch c th p kn m t phn ca

vng trng nhng m t s no vn khng c lp y. Thng
thng, khi lng giao dch sau khi xut hin vng trng cng ln thi
kh nng n c lp y cng thp. N hng vng trng gi ln thng
vn hnh nh khu vc h tr cho nhng t hiu chnh th trng sau
. iu quan trng l gi khng rt xung dui vng trng trong sut
xu hng tng. Trong mi trng hp, vic lp y vng trng di v
trn l tn hiu ca s suy yu. (Xeni hnh 4.23a v b).
Vng trong o lng. Sau khi s bin ng din ra c m t lc, u

quanh on gia ca bin ng, gi s nhy v pha truc hnh thnh
loi vng trng th hai (hoc m t lot vng trng) c gi l vng
trng o lng. D ng vng trng ny th hin tinh hung ni th trng
dch chuyn t tn vi khi lung va phi. Trong m t xu hng tng,
Hnh 4.23b v u n g u tin nh du vng trng suy yu gn cui t hi

phc. Gi rt xung bn dui vng trng to thnh m t inh. vung th
hai l mt vng trng o ng khong gia xu hng gim. 0 vung th
ba l mt vng trng suy yu khc y. Bin ng quay u i ln trn vng
trng bo hiu gi tng cao hn.
P h n tch k t h u t th tr n g t i c h n h 121
y l tn hiu th trng mnh ln, cn trong xu hng gim - l tin

hiuca s suy yu. Vng trng do lung cng l ngung h tr cho
nhng t hiu chinh trong th trng gi gim v khng h b lp y.
Cng nh vng trng chy trn, gi dng ca thp han vng trng o
lung l tin Kiu tiu cc trong mt xu hung tng.
Cc trng thi khc nhau ny ca vng trng cng c gi l vng

trng o lng v n thung xut hin on gia mt xu hng. Bng
vic do khong cch di chuyn ca xu hung tnh t tin hiu xut
hin hoc s ph v xu hng u tin, ta c th c lng phm vi ca
bin dng bng cch nhn i con so c c.
Vng trng suy yu. Dng vng trng ny xut hin gn cui mt
bin ng th trung. Sau khi t duc mc tiu gi v c hai dng vng
trng khc u xut hin (vng trng chy tron v o lung), chuyn
gia phn tch k thut s bt u mong i vng trng suy yu. Gn
cui xu hng tng, gi s nhy vt ln ln cui. Tuy nhin, c nhy vt
nhanh chng bin mt v gi quay du gim trong vi phin hoc
trong phm vi mt tun. Khi gi dng ca di vng trng cui cng,
cng l lc xut hin vng trng suy yu. y i mt vi d kinh
in, ni vic rt gi xung dui mt vng trng mang hm gim gi.
o chiu cm o
By gi chng ta cng tho lun v m hnh o chiu cm o (Island
Reversal). i lc, sau khi mt vng trng suy yu i ln hnh thnh,
gi s dao ng trong bin hp vi ngy hay mt hai tun truc khi
to ra vng trng pha di. Nhng tnh hung nh vy s khin s bin
ng gi trong vi ngy c hnh dng nh mt cm o duc bao quanh
bi khng gian hoc nuc. Vng trng suy yu theo hng tng duc
tip ni bi mt vng trng chy trn theo hng xung s hon chnh
m hnh o chiu cm o v cho thy mt s o chiu xu hung vi
gi tr no . D nhin, ngha ca s o chiu ph thuc vo vic
gi ang nm mc no trong m hnh xu hung chung. (Xem hnh
4.23c).
122 John ]. Murphy
Hnh 4.23c Hat loi vng trng trn thi to nn nh o chiu cm o.

vung th nht th hin mt vng trng tng gi sau mt s hi phc. th
hai th hin mt vng trng gim gi vo 3 tun sau . S kt hp hai vng
trng thng bo hiu mt nh quan trng.
T M L C
Chng ny gii thiu nhng cng c k thut uc coi l nn tng ca

phn tch th - ngng h v khng c, ng v knh xu hng,
thoi li theo t l phn trm, ng khng c tc , phin o chiu
v vng trng. Mi cch tip cn k thut c cp n trong nhng
chng sau u s dng cc cng c v khi nim theo cch ny hay
cch khc. Nu hiu r hn v nhng khi nim ny, chng ta c th
bt u nghin cu v cc m hnh gi.
CHNG 5
Cc m hnh o chiu
c bn
GII THIU
Chng ta tip cn L thuyt Dow - l thuyt urc coi l nn tng
ca hu ht cc nghin cu theo xu hung uc s dng ngy nay.
Chng ta cng d xem xt cc khi nim cn bn ca xu hung nh
ngng h tr, ngung khng c v dung xu hung. Chng ta cng
cp n khi lung giao dch v s lng hp ng chua tt ton. Vi
lng thng tin k trn, chng ta s tin hnh bc k tip - tho lun
v cc m hnh gi. Bn s sm nhn thy nhng m hnh ny uc xy
dng t nhng khi nim trn.
Trong Chung 4, chng ta nh ngha xu hung l hng lot dinh v

y tng dn hoc gim dn. Khi chng tng dn, xu hng s uc coi
l tng, cn khi gim dn, l lc xu hung i xung. Tuy nhin, cng
cn luu rng, c nhng khong thi gian th trng li i ngang. Dng
th trng khng c xu hng r rng khin nh giao dch bn khon
ny s c tho lun trong hai chung tip theo.
Vic cho rng th trng thay i mt cch t ngt l khng ng.

Hu nh tt c nhng s thay i u phi c mt giai on chuyn
tip. Vn nm ch khng phi s chuyn tip no cng bo hiu
124 John J. Murphy
mt s o chiu. i khi, giai on i ngang chi n thun l mt s

tm ngng nghi hoc cng c xu hng hin ti trc khi hi phc xu
hung ban u.
CC M HNH GI
Vic nghin cu cc giai on chuyn tip v ngha d on ca

chng s dn chng ta n vi vn d v m hnh gi. Vy m hnh gi
l g? M hnh gi l nhng hnh nh hay s sp xp trn d th gi
chng khon hoc hng ha, uc chia thnh nhiu loi v uc s
dng d on.
HAI DNG M HNH - O CH IU V T l P DlN
C hai loi m hnh gi c bn - o chiu v tip din. Nh chnh tn

gi ca chng, m hnh o chiu cp nmt s o chiu xu
hng quan trng. Nguc li, m hnh tip din m chi s tm ngng
nghi ca th trng trong chc lt, c th l d hiu chinh tnh trng
mua qu mc hoc bn qu mc trong ngn hn trc khi phc hi xu
hng hin ti. v n quan trng l phi phn bit duc hai dng m
hnh ny cng sm cng tt trong thi gian m hnh ang uc hnh
thnh.
Trong chung ny, chng ta s kho st s m hnh o chiu chinh

l: du v vai, ba nh v ba y, hai inh v hai y, inh v y hnh
ch V v m hnh trn (hnh a). Chng ta s kho st cch chng hnh
thnh trn th v cch xc nh chng. Sau , chng ta s xem xt
nhg im quan trng khc - m hnh khi lng giao dch v chc
nng o lng i km.
Khi lng giao dch ng vai tr quan trng trong mi m hnh gi.
Khi ta cn ng vc v m hnh gi th vic tm hiu v m hnh khi
lng giao dch cng vi d liu gi s gip ta xc nh m hnh no l
dng tin cy.
Hu ht cc m hnh gi u c nhng k thut o lng nht nh

gip chuyn gia phn tch k thut xc nh mc tiu gi ti thiu. Mc
d chi l con s uc chng bin ca bin ng din ra sau , song
nhng mc tiu ny cng h tr nh giao dch xc nh c t l li
nhun/ri ro ca h.
Trong Chung 5, chng ta s tm hiu loi m hnh th hai - cc

dng m hnh tip din. Trong phn d, chng ta s kho st m hnh
dng tam gic, c hiu, c ui nheo, hnh nm v hnh ch nht.
Nhng m hnh ny thng th hin s tm ngng xu hung hn l o
chiu, v chng thng uc chia thnh xu hng trung gian v dch
chuyn nh ch khng phi l xu hng chnh.
Nhng c im c bn ph bin ca tt c cc m hnh o chiu

Trc khi tho lun v tng m hnh o chiu chnh, ta hy xem qua
nhng c im c bn rt ph bin trong tt c cc m hnh o chiu.
1. Nht thit phi c mt xu hng trc d c th hnh thnh m

hnh o chiu.
2. Tn hiu u tin ca mt s o chiu thung l s ph v ng
xu hung chinh.
3. M hnh cng ln th bin ng theo sau cng ln.
4. Cc m hnh nh c thi gian ngn hn nhung b ph v nhiu
hon so vi cc m hnh y.
5. Cc m hnh y thung c bin gi nh hn v mt nhiu thi
gian hnh thnh hn.
6. Khi lng giao dch trong xu hng gi ln thng ng vai tr
quan trng hon.
S cn thit mt xu hng trc . S tn ti xu hung true l

iu kin tin quyt hnh thnh bt k mt m hnh o chiu no.
Th trng phi c iu gi o nghch. i khi, vic hnh thnh
m hnhxut hin trn th, ging vi mt trong cc m hnh o
126 John J. Murphy
chieu. Tuy nhien, neu truc do khong co mot xu hung ro rang thi mo
hinh d khng dang tin cy vi khng c gi de do chieu. Viec nm bt
dirqc thcri diem m hinh xut hien la yeu to quyet djnh trong viec nhan
dinh m hinh.
Ket qua tat yeu doi vai su can thiet c mt xu hung trudc d de do
chieu chinh l van de mang hm y do lung. N hu da de cp tnrc d,
da so cc ky thut do lircmg deu chi cho ta muc tieu gi toi thieu. Cn
muc tieu gi toi da l tong bien d bien dng gi truc d. Neu thi
trudng gi len chinh yeu dien ra v xut hien mt m hinh dinh c a bn
thi hm y ve su bien dng tiem nng toi da trong xu hung gi gim c
the l sir thoi li 100% thi trung gi len, hay chinh l diem khi dau
ca tat c.
Suph vdu& ngxu huong chinh. Tin hieu du tien ca sir do chieu
xu hung l viec ph v duong xu huong chinh. Tuy nhien, cn luu y
rang su ph v dung xu hung chinh khng hn l tin hieu nht thiet
cho thy surdo chieu m n chi bo hieu surthay doi xu hung. Viec ph
v mt dung xu hung chinh di len c th i bo hieu su khi du ca
mt m hinh gia di ngang - m hinh m sau d c the dircrc xc dinh
l m hinh do chieu hay cng co. Di khi, su ph v dung xu hung
chinh xy ra khi m hinh gi hinh thnh hon chinh.
M hinh cng Ion thi tiem nng cao. Khi sii dung cap d so snh
"Ion hon", chng ta dang ni den chieu rng v chieu cao ca m hinh
gi. Chieu cao xc dinh tinh dao dng ca m hinh v chieu rng l
khong thi gian can thiet de thiet lp v hon thnh m hinh. Kich
thuc m hinh cng ln - tue l gi di chnyen rng hon (tinh dao dng)
v thi gian hinh thnh lau hon - thi m hinh cng c y nghla v tiem
nng bien dng gi xy ra sau d se ln hon.
Gn nhu l tat c ky thut do lung trong hai chiromg ny deu dua

vo chieu cao ca m hinh. Dy l phuong php du tien duoc p dung
cho do thi thanh vi viec su dung tieu chi do lung theo chieu doc.
Thuc tien do lung be ngang ca m hinh gi duorc p dung cho do thi
hnh v im. Phutmg php th s dng cng c m - cng c

tha nhn mi quan h gia chiu rng ca dinh hoc y v mc tiu
gi i sau.
S khc bit gia inh v y. M hnh dinh thng din ra ngn

hn v b ph v nhiu hn so vi m hnh y. Gi dao ng gia cc
nh ln hn v mnh m hon. nh mt t thi gian hn hnh thnh.
y thng c bin gi nh hcm nhung thi gian hnh thnh di hn.
Chnh v th, vic nhn din v giao dch theo cc y s d dng v t
ton km hn so vi vic ui theo inh. Mt im th v ca m hnh
nh l gi c khuynh hng gim nhanh hn so vi khi tng. Do ,
nh giao dch thng thu c li nhun cao hn khi tham gia v th
bn trong th trung gi xung thay v giao dch v th mua trong th
tnrng gi ln. Mi th trong i l s nh i gia phn thng v
ri ro. Ri ro cng cao thi phn thung b p cng ln v ngc li.
M hnh nh kh nm bt hon nhng li rt c gi tr d theo ui.
Khi lng giao dch trong xu hng tng quan trng hn. Khi
lng giao dch tng theo hung pht trin ca xu hng th trng v
l yu t quyt nh s hon thnh cc m hnh gi. Mi m hnh gi
khi hon thin du di cng s gia tng ng k khi lung giao dch.
Tuy nhin, giai on du ca s o chiu xu hung, khi lng giao
dch ti cc inh ca th trng khng quan trng. Th trng c cch
iu chinh mt khi s bin ng gi xung thc s bt u. Ngui s
dng th thch chng kin hot ng giao dch si ni khi gi gim,
nhung diu khng quan trng. Tuy nhin, khi th trng chm y
thi khi lung giao dch ng nhin dng vai tr rt quan trng. Neu
m hnh khi lung giao dch khng th hin uc mc tng dng k
trong thi gian gi tng bt ph th phi xem xt li. Chng ta s kho
st su hn v khi lng giao dch trong Chung 7.
M HNH O CH IU AU v v a i
Hy tim hiu m hnh c l c coi l ph bin v ng tin cy nht

trong cc m hnh do chiu hin nay - m hnh o chiu u v vai
128 John J. Murphy
(the Head and Shouder Reversal). Chng ta se dnh unieu thi gian cho
m hinh ny vi tm quan trong ca no dong thcri de gii thich tat c cc
c thi cs lien quan. Phn ln cc m hinh do chieu khc deu l bien
the ca m hinh dau v vai, vi the, chng ta khng can nghien cu them.
Cng nhu tat c cc m hinh khc, m hinh do chieu duqc due rut
t khi niem xu hung trong Chucmg 4. Hay hinh dung mot tinh huong
trong xu hung tng chinh, noi hng loat dinh v dy tng dan dang bt
du dnh mt xung luong. Sau d, xu hung tng ny chng lai mt lc.
Trong sut thcri gian ny, p luc cung cu 6 trang thi tuemg doi cn
bng. Khi giai doan phn phoi ket thc, ngung h tro tai dy bi ph
v v mt xu hung di xuong mi duoc hinh thnh. Xu hung di xuong
ny bao gom cc dinh v dy di xuong.
Hinh 5.1a Vi du dinh dau v vai. Vai tm i v phai (A v E) co cng chieu cao.
Du ( C) cao hon hai vai kia. Khi luong giao dich tai moi dinh gim dn. M
hinh hon chinh khi gi dng ca ben dui dieemg vien co (dudng 2). Mac lieu
gi toi thieu duoc tinh ttr dient ph v dudng vien co hung xuong mt khong
cch thang dng bng khong cch t dau den dudng co. Su djeh chuyen
nguqc lai thudng dien in tr lai vai dung vien co va se khng ct duong vien
co mt khi no d bi ph v.
Hnh 5.1 b nh au v vai. Ba im cao nht trong hnh cho hy u cao

hn hai vai. Ta c th d on s dch chuyn s quay li ung vin c sau
.
Hy xem xt tnh hung ny s c nh u v vai nh th no (trong

hnh 5 .la v b). Ti im A, xu hung tng ang vn hnh nh mong
i m khng thy tn hiuhnh thnh nh. Khi lng giao dch cng
tri ra trn s bin ng gi thnh mt ngng mi - iu c coi l
bnh thng. S gim gi hiu chnh ti im c khi lng giao dch
t hn cng iu c mong i. Tuy nhin, ti im c, nhng ngi
s dng th nhanh nhn c th nhn thy rng khi lng giao dch
theo xu hng tng bt ph khi im A li thp hn SO vi t hi
phc trc. n thn s thay i ny khng quan trng nhng li pht
ra mt tn hiu cnh bo trong u nh phn tch.
Gi li gim xung im D v mt s xo trn xut hin. S suy

gim in ra bn '* Ji nh trc ti A. Hy nh rng khi nh trong
xu hng tng b ph v s tr thnh im h tr ca t hiu chnh
130 John J. Murphy
dien ra sau do. Su suy gim diroi diem A, gan nhur la bang B, la tin hieu
cnh bao c dieu gi d khng on dang dien ra doi vdi mot xu hung
tang.
Thi trucrng sau d hoi phuc ten diem E vcri khoi luong giao dich it
hon va khng the bng dinh cao nhat tai C. (C kh nng dot hoi phuc
tai G se l thoai li mt na hoc hai phan ba ca dot suy gim tu C den
D.) De xu hung tng tiep dien, moi diem cao nhat phi cao hon diem
cao nhat ca dot hoi phuc truc d. Khi dot hoi phuc tai diem E khng
the cham dinh truc d l C thi n da c duoc mt na dieu kien de
thnh lp xu hung gim mi - nhng dinh gim dan.
Luc ny, duwng xu hung tng chinh (dutmg 1) da bi ph v tai diem

D lm pht sinh mt tin hieu xau. Bat chap nhng tin hieu cnh bo ny,
chng ta chi can biet ring xu hung dang chuyen tu tng sang nm
ngang. Dieu ny cung du khien ta thanh khon nhng vi the mua nhung
khng du de chng minh cho nhng dot bn khong mi.
Sur ph v dutmg vien co gip hon chinh m hinh

Luc ny, ta c the ve mt dung xu hung it doc hon noi hai diem thap
nhat (tai B v D), goi l ducmg vien co (Xem dung 2). Thong thung,
dung ny nghieng mt gc nh tai dinh (mc du di khi c the nm
ngang hoc di khi l hung xuong). Yen to quyet dinh hinh thnh mt
dinh du va vai l su ph v dung vien co mt cch dirt khot. Thi
trung da be gy dung xu hung noi cc dy B v D, roi xuong
ngung ho tro tai diem D tao du dieu kien hinh thnh mt xu hung
gim mi - gom nhng dinh v dy di xuong. Nhng dinh v dy gim
dan tai C, D, E v F xc dinh xu hung gim mi. Khoi luong giao dich
c the tng khi dung vien co bi ph v. Tuy nhien, viec khoi luong
giao dich tng trong thi trung gi gim cng chua phi l yeu to then
chot de c the bat dau hinh thnh mt dinh thi trung.
BiSn dong quay dau
Thng thung, mt bien dng duqc goi l quay du khi bat tr lai mc
y ca ung vin c hay mc y trc ti im D (xem im G)

v by gi, c hai im ny u tr thnh ngung khng c. Khng
phi lc no bin ng quay u cng din ra hay i khi chi cm thun
l mt s bt li khng ng k. Khi lung giao dch c th xc nh
phm vi bt li. Nu im gy ban u ca ung vin c nm ti mc
giao dch rt ln th kh nng xut hin bin ng quay du l khng
c bi khi lung giao dch tng tc l p lc gim gi cng tng. Khi
lung giao dch ti nhng im ph v ung vin c t hn lm gia
tng kh nng mt bin ng quay u. Tuy nhin, s hi phc nn din
ra vi khi lung giao dch nh trong khi mt xu hng gim mi din
ra sau c th bt du cng vi khi lung giao dch tng ng k.
T M LC
Chng ta hy cng xem li nhng dc im cn bn ca mt inh u

v vai: , -----------------------
1. Cn mt xu hng din ra trc ;

2. Vai tri vi khi lung giao dch ln hn (im A) theo sau l mt
t hiu chinh xung im B;
3. S hi phc ln ngng cao tni s c khi lng giao dch t hn
(im C);
4. Mt s st gim xung bn di nh bc (im A) v chm
y tng ng trc (im D);
5. t hi phc th ba (im E) vi khi lung giao dch it ng k
khng th chm im cao nht ca u (im C);
6. S kt thc din ra bn di ng vin c;
7. Mt bin ng quay u hung n ng vin c (im G) c
tip ni bng nhng y mi.
R rng l cn phi xc nh uc 3 inh. inh gia (u) cao hon

hai vai mt t (im A v E). Tuy nhin, m hnh khng th hon thin
nu ung vin c vn chua b ph v mt cch dt khot. Tiu chun
ph v 1-3% (c nhng bin th ca n) hay diu kin phi c hai phin
132 John J. Murphy
ng ca thp hn dng vin c (quy lut hai phin) c dng gia

tng tnh chc chn. Tuy nhin, cho n khi vic ph v hung xung
din ra thi c kh nng m hnh khng thc s c dng du v
vai na v xu hng tng s hi phc tr li.
TM q u a n t r n g c a k h i l n g g ia o d c h
M hnh khi lung giao dch i km ng vai tr quan trng trong vic
hnh thnh v pht trin nh u v vai cng nh bt k mt m hnh
gi no. Nhn chung, khi lng giao dch ti im du nn thp hn
vai tri. khng phi l diu kin nhng li l mt xu th ph bin v
l cnh bo sm cho s st gim p lc mua. Khi lng giao dch
trong giai on ba nh (vai phi) l quan trng nht. Khi lng giao
dch phi thp hon hai inh kia rt nhiu. Sau , khi lng giao dch
s gia tng khi dng vin c b ph v, gim khi c bin dng quay
du, v li tng khi bin dng quay du kt thc.
Nhu cp truc , khi lng giao dch khng my quan trng

trong vic hon thnh cc nh th trung. Tuy nhin, mt s im,
khi lng giao dch c th s bt du gia tng nu xu hung tng tip
din. Khi lung giao dch ng vai tr quyt nh ti cc y th
tmng v s uc ni n sau. Tuy nhin, trc ht ta hy tho lun v
phng php o lung trong m hnh u v vai.
XC NH M C TIU GI
Phng php i duc mc tiu gi s dng chiu cao ca m hnh.

Ta s ly khong cch theo chiu dc t du (im C) xung ung
vin c ri sau chiu khong cch ny t im ng vin c b ph
v. Vi d im cao nht ca u l 100 v ng vin c l 80. Do ,
khong cch theo chiu dc l khong chnh lch 20. im chnh lch
20 ny s uc o xung t im m ng vin c b ph v. Nu nh
ung vin c trn hnh 5.la b ph v ti mc 82, mc tiu gi gim
s l 62 (82-20=62).
Mt k thut khc cng c th c s dng hon thnh nhim

v tung t nhng nh nhng hon l chi cn do chiu di ca t sng
suy gim u tin (t c n D) ri sau nhn i. i vi c hai
trng hp th chiu cao hay bin dao ng ca m hnh cng ln
th mc tiu cng xa. Chng 4 chi ra rng, vic o lung da trn im
ph v ung xu hng cng tng t nh thc do uc s dng trong
m hnh u v vai. Chng ta c th nhn thy vn ny ngay sau dy.
Gi c dch chuyn mnh dui ng vin c b ph v vi khong
cch tuong t nh trn ng vin c. Bn s nhn ra rng gn nh tt
c mc tiu gi trn th thanh u c xc nh da trn chiu cao
hoc dao ng ca cc dng m hnh khc nhau. Ch o chiu
cao ca m hnh v chiu khong cch t im ph v hung xung
s uc lp li lin tc.
Cn nh rng m c tiu gi t c y chi l m c tiu toi thiu.

Gi s cn di chuyn ra ngoi phnr vi mc tiu ny. Tuy nhin, vic c
uc mc tiu gi ti thiu l rt hu dng trong vic xc nh sm
tim nng bin ng th trng chim v th. Nu th trurng vt
qua khi mc tiu gi, c ngha l thn may mn d mm ci vi bn.
Mc tiu ti a l kch thuc ca bin dng truc . Nu th trung
tng gi truc di chuyn t 30 n 100 th mc tiu ti a tnh t m
hnh inh s uc tnh bng cch thoi li ton b xu hng tng xung
mc 30. Cc m hnh o chiu c th c mong i s o chiu hay
thoi li nhng g d din ra trc .
iu chinh mc tiu gi
C nhiu yu t cn c xem xt khi xc nh mc tiu gi. Nhng k
thut nh cho m hnh u v vai chi l buc u tin. Cn nhiu yu
to k thut khc cn phi xem xt. V d, nhng ngng h tr ni bt
ca xu hng tng truc d u? V th trng gim gi thng ng
ti nhng mc ny. Thoi li theo t l phn trm l bao nhiu? Mc
liu toi a s l s thoi li 100% th trung tng gi ti c . Vy
nhng mc thoi li 50% v 66% nm u? Nhng n c ny s cho
134 John J. Murphy
ta biet duoc aguong ho tro quan trong khi thi trung gim gi. Vy
nhng vng trong ben dirai thi sao? N se c chc nng nhu khu vuc
ho tro. Lieu c dung xu hudng di han no xuat hien ben duoi thi
trung khng?
Nh phn tich ky thut can xem xet nhng du lieu ky thut khc
nhm xc dinh cc muc tieu gi tircc m hinh gi. Vi du, khi gi gim,
muc tieu duoc xc dinh tai 30 v co mt nguong ho tro noi bat nm tai
32 thi ngucri su dung se linh hoat dieu chinh muc 32 thnh muc tieu gi
thay vi 30. Nhin chung, neu c suchenh lech giua muc tieu gi do duoc
v ngucmg ho tro hay khng cu r rang thi nen chon muc tieu gi tai
nguong ho tro hoc khng cu. Viec xem xet them nhung thng tin ky
thuat khc de dieu chinh muc tieu gi l dieu cn thiet. Nh phn tich
ky thut se c nhieu cng cu ho tro loc lai nhung thng tin ny. Mt nh
phn tich ky thut khn ngoan l ngucri biet cch ket hop nhung cng
cu ny mt cch thich hop.
M H lN H DAU V VAI DO N G HICH
Mo hinh dy dau v vai hay cn goi du v vai do chieu (Inverse Head

and Shoulder), l dang do nghich ca m hinh dinh. N hu hinh S.2a
cho thay 3 dy khc nhau gom du (dy gia) thap hon hai vai. Gi
dng ca mang tinh quyet dinh qua dung vien co duoc coi l cn thiet
de hon tat m hinh, v cc ky thut do lung cflng c tarn quan trong
nhu vy. Mt su khc biet nh tai dy l xu huong manh hon doi vcri
bien dong quay du ve dung vien cd de xut hien sau khi c su ph v
tng gi.
Diem khc biet quan trong nht gia m hinh dinh v dy l khoi
luong giao djch. Khoi luong giao dich dng vai tr quan trong hon
trong viec nhan dien v hon chinh dy du v vai. Ni chung, diem
ny dng vi tat c cc m hinh dy. Nhu d timg de cp truc d, thj
truong c xu hudmg tu dieu chinh. Tuy nhien, khi cham dy, thi
trung cn su gia tng dng ke ve p luc mua duoc phn nh qua khoi
luong giao dich tng nhm khoi dng mt thi trung gi len mi.
Hnh 5.2a Vi d m hnh u v vai o nghch. M hnh y u v vai l

mt m hnh inh o chiu. S khc bit duy nht l m hnh khi lng giao
dch trong na phn sau ca m hnh. S hi phc t im u s chng kin
khi lunggiao ch ln hem v s ph vung vin c s chng kin s gia
lng mnh m ca hot ng giao dch. Bin ng quay u li ung vin
co din ra pho bin hn trong m hnh y.
Mt phucmg php mang tinh k thut hn cho vic xem xt s khc

bit ny l th trng rt gi do s ch. S thiu vng nhu cu hoc
mi quan tm mua bn ca mt b phn nh giao dch ko th trung
i xung, nhung th trng li khng i ln theo s ch ny. Gi chi
tng khi cu ln hon cuag v nguri mua tch cc hn ngi bn.
M hnh khi lung giao ch ti y cng tng t nh m hnh khi

lng ti inh trong na phn u ca m hnh. iu ny c ngha l
khi lung ti im u it hon mt cht so vi khi lung giao dch ti
vai tri. Tuy nhin, s hi phc t im u cho thy khng chi s gia
tng trong hot dng giao dch m cn mc khi lung giao dch lun
vt qu khi lung th hin cho t hi phc ti vai tri. Gi rt xung
vai phi vi khi lumg nh. im mu cht xut hin trong t hi
phc thng qua ung vin c. Tin hiu ny phi uc song hnh cng
vi s bt ph v khi tung giao dch nu s ph v thc s din ra.
136 Johr J. Miiphy
Hnh 5.2b y u v vai. ng vitt c hi i xung l iu thng thy.

Bin ng quay u sau c ph v gi (xem mi tn) ct ng vin c m t t
ri li phc hi xu hng tng sau .
y l im khc bit gia m hnh y vi hu ht cc m hnh

nh. Ti y, khi lng giao dch ln ng nhin l yu t quyt nh
hon thnh m hnh gc. Bin ng quay u cng ph bin ti y
hn l ti nh v c th din ra vi khi ung khng ng k. Sau ,
m t xu hung tng m i s li bt u vi khi lng giao dch n hn.
K thut o lng ti y cng tng t nh k thut o lng ti nh.
dc ng vin c
ng vin c trong m hnh nh thng dc m t cht. Tuy nhin, i
khi n cng rm Tgang hon ton. C hai trng hp u khng c
nhiu khc bit. i khi, ng vin c nh cng nghing xung. S
nghing xung l tn hiu suy yu ca th tm ng v thung i cng bi
m t vai bn phi yu. Tuy nhin, vic ny va may va ri. N h phn
tch m ong i s ph v ca ng vin c bt u m t v th bn
s phi ch u hn, bi tn tn hiut ng vin c nghing xung
xut hin chm hon v ch sau khi phn ln bin ng gi xy ra.
Trong cc m hnh gc, gn nh mi ng vin c u nghing

xung. ng vin c tng l tn hiu th trung mnh hn nhng vn
c hn ch l chm trn trong vic pht ra tn hiu.
C C M H N H U v vai p h c
Mt bin th ca m hnh u v vai i khi cng xy ra v uc gi

m hnh u v vai ph c. nhng m hnh c hai u hoc hai
vai tri hoc hai vai phi. Tuy khng ph bin bng m hnh u v vai
c bn, nhung chng c ngha d bo nh nhau. M t gi hu ch
lin quan n vn ny l xu hung i xng mnh trong m hnh u
v vai. iu ny c ngha vai tri thng s i cng vi m t vai phi.
V vai tri i s gia tng kh nng xut hin ca vai phi i.
Cc chin thut
Chin thut thjtrng ng vai tr quan trng trong tt c cc hot
ng giao dch. Khng phi nh giao dch k thut th trng no cng
thch ch i s ph v ca ng vin c khi ng v th mi.
N h hnh 5.3 cho thy, nhng nh giao dch nn nng hn tin rng h
xc nh chnh xc mt y u v vai v bt u thm d v th mua
trong thi gian vai phi hnh thnh. Hoc c th h s m ua ti tn
hiuk thut u tin khi s suy gim xung vai phi kt thc.
Mt so ngi s o khong cch ca t hi phc t im thp nht

ca u (im c n D) v mua ti mc thoi li 50% n 66% ca t
hi phc . Nhng ngi kn ting s v m ng xu hng gim
st theo s suy gim t D xung E v mua ti im ph v i n u
tin ca ng xu hng . V tnh i xng ca nhng m hnh ny,
m s ngi s mua vo khi hnh thnh vai phi bi n t c mc
tong t nh mc y ca vai tri. Rt nhiu ngui mua ti thi im
hnh thnh vai phi. Nu vic thm d m ua ban u chng t uc kh
nng sinh li, th cc v th b sung c th c a vo ti thi im
xy ra s ph v thc s ca ng vin c hoc bin ng quay u
chm j n g vin c sau c ph v.
138 John J. M urphy
M hnh u v v a yu dn
M t khi di chuyn qua ng vin c v hon thnh m hnh u v
vai th g i s khng c t ng vin c n a. Ti nh, m t khi ung
vin c b ph v khi gi i xung th bt k gi ng ca mang tnh
quyt nh no trn ung vin c ny cng l m t tn hiu cnh bo
nghim trng rng s ph v ban u c th l tn tn hiu ti, v to
nn m hnh m chng ta thung gi i m hnh u v va i y u dn.
(the Failed Head and Shoulder Pattem ). K iu m hnh ny ban u
trng ging dng nghch o u v vai c in, nhng m t s kha
cnh ca qu trnh pht trin (hoc truc s ph v ca ng vin c
hoc ngay sau ), gi li hi phc xu hng ban u.
Hnh 5 3 Chin thut i vi y u v vai. Nhiu nh giao dch k thut

th trng s khi ng v th mua khi vai phi (E) ang c hnh thnh. S
thoi li mt na hoc hai phn ba i hi phc t c n D, m t s suy gim
cng mc nh vai tri ti im A, hoc s ph v ng xu hng gim
ngan hn (ng I) u to ra c hi cho vic gia nhp th trng. Nhiu v
th c th c b sung khi xut hin s ph v ca ng vin c hoc bin
ng quay u chm ng vin co.
y c hai bi hc quan trng. Bi hc th nht l chng mt m

hnh no trong s cc m hnh d th ny lun lun ng. Chng vn
hnh gn nh mi lc nhung khng phi lun nh vy. Bi hc th hai
l cc nh giao dch k thut cn phi lun lun cnh gic vi nhng
tn hiu khin phn tch ca h di sai hng. Mt trong nhng mu cht
tn ti trn th trng ti chnh l gim thua l n mc ti thiu v
thot khi th trng cng nhanh cng tt. Mt trong nhng li th ln
nht ca phn tch th l kh nng nhanh chng cnh bo nh giao
dch rng h ang di sai hung th trng. Kh nng nhanh chng nhn
ra sai lm v thc hin bin php bo ton tc thi chnh l nhng phm
cht cn thit trong th trng ti chnh.
u v vai vi t cch l mt m hnh cng c

Trc khi chuyn sang m hnh gi khc, chng ta cn hiu im cui
cng v m hnh u v vai. Chng ta bt u cuc tho lun ny
bng vic Ht k nhng m-hinh o chiu chnh yu ph bin nht v
ng tin cy nht. Tuy nhin, bn nn cn trng v di khi s hnh thnh
ny vn hnh nh mt s cng c ch khng phi l m hnh o chiu.
Khi diu ny xy ra, chi l trng hp ngoi l ch khng phi quy
lut. Chng ta s cp n vn ny nhiu hn trong Chng 6,
Cc m hnh tip din.
M HNH BA NH V BA Y
Gn nh mi c im c nhc n trong m hinh du v vai du c

th dc p dng cho cc dng m hnh o chiu khc. (Xem hnh
5.4a-c). M hnh ba inh hoc ba y (Triple Tops and Bottoms) - vn
rt him khi xy ra - l bin th ph ca m hnh . S khc bit nm
s tng quan v mc ca ba inh hoc y trong m hnh ba inh
v ba y (Xem hnh 5.4a). Ngi s dng th thung bt ng trong
vic xem xt kh nng liu mt m hnh o chiu l u v vai c bn
hay l ba inh. Lp lun ny mang tinh hc thut v c hai m hnh u
c cng hm nh nhau.
140 John J. M urphy
_ ------
I \ /IX
1 \ / ! X / \
/ V t_V
/ \ / i x / \
v _ _
/
_ [ M ... jj twin i ....

iL
Hinh 5.4a Mo hinh ba dinh. Cng ging nhir m hinh du va vai nhung cdc
dinh or day co cng kick conhunhau. Khi luonggiao dich tai moi dinh giarn
dn. M hinh chihoan chinh khi ca hai day deu b ipha vo vo i khi luonggiao
dich Ion. Ky thuat do luong la tinh chieu cao tie diem pha vo di xuong. Bien
dong quay du cham dudng ben duoi la dieu binh thudng.
Hinh 5.4b M ot mo hinh ba day. Cng tuong tu n h u d a y du v vai, ngoqi trie

mc do cac day nhu nhau. No l hinh nh do nguoc ca mo hinh ba dinh
ngoai trir khi luonggiao dich c o y nghia quart trong hon tai diem pha vo tang
gid.
Hnh 5.4c M t m hnh chi ba y. Gi tm thy ngng h tr bn

di 2 ba ln trc khi c i tng gi chinh. S hnh thnh y trong th
tun ko di hai nam cng chng mnh ngha ca n.
Khi lng giao dch c xu hng gim dn ti mi nh v tng dn

ti cc im ph v. M hnh ba nh s cha hon chnh nu ngng
h tr ti cc y xen gia vn chua b ph v. Ngc li, gi phi ng
thng qua hai nh xen gia ti y nhm hon chnh m hnh ba y.
(Nh m t chin lc thay th, vic ph v nh hoc y gn nht c
th c s dng nh mt tn hiu o chiu). Khi lng giao dch ln
pha trn khi hon thin y cng iu kin quyt nh.
H m o lng cng tng t u v vai, v cng c da vo

chiu cao ca m hnh. G i thung bin ng vi mt khong cch ti
thiu t im ph v t nht bng chiu cao m hnh. M t khi s ph
v xy ra, bin ng quay u ti im ph v bnh thng. V m
hnh ba nh v y ch l m t bin th nh ca m hnh u v vai nn
chng ta s khng dnh nhiu thi gian cho ti ny.
142 John J. Murphy
M H N H H A I N H V H A I Y
Mt m hnh o chiu ph bin hn hai nh hoc h ai y. Sau m

hnh u v vai th y l dng c s dng nhiu nht v c nhn
dng d dng nht. (Xem hnh 5.5a-c). Cc hnh 5.5a v 5.5b l v d
v trng thi khc nhau ca c nh ln y. N h hnh dng m chng
ta c th thy c trn th, nh thng c gn vi ch M v y
ch w. Cc c im chung ca mt m hnh hai nh cng tuong t
nh cc c im ca m hnh u v vai v ba nh, ngoi tr vic ch
c iai nh xut hin thay v ba. M hnh khi lng giao dch cng
tng t theo nguyn trng ca quy tc o lng.
Trong mt xu hng tng (nh c th hin trong hnh 5.5a), th

trng s thit lp ngng cao mi ti im A vi khi lng giao dch
tng, sau rt xung im B vi khi lng gim. Cho n gi, mi
th din ra nh k vng trong mt xu hng tng thng thng. Tuy
nhin, t hi phc tip tho ti dim c th khng th vt qua inh
trc ti A ng li m hnh v bt u gim xung ln na. Mt
Hnh 5.5a M hnh hai nh. M hnh ny c hai ngng cao nht (A v C)
cng mi mc g. Gi ng ca ti im B thp hn y gia vi khi
ung giao dich lem s hon chnh m hnh v cho bit tin hiu o chiu xu
hung i xung. Khng c g ngc nhin khi bin ng quay u hng n
im ph v trc khi hi phc xu hng gim.
H nh 5.5b M hnh hai y. D y hnh nh tng phn ca m hnh hai

nh. K hi lng g iao dch tr nn quan trng ht im ph v h u n g ln.
Cc bin ng quay u hng n im p h v thng x y ra y.
H nh 5.5c V i d v m hnh hai y. G i c p h iu gim tnnh h a i ln m c

68 trong thi gian ba thng. Lu rng im y th hai cn l m t p hin
gia o dch o chiu i ln. S p h v nguig khng c 80 hon chnh phn
y.
144 John J. M urphy
mc gi ca nh th nht nh trong v d ny. M hnh hai nh ko di hai

thng ny bo hiu mt xu hung gim gi ln. Tin hiu tht s l im ph
v ca ngng ho tr gn mc 46.
Hnh 5.5e Cc m hnh gi thungxut hin trn th ca cc ung trung

bnh gi chnh. Trn th ny, chi s Nasdaq Composite hnh thnh nn mt
m hnh hai y gn mc 470 trc khi quay u hng ln. im ph v
ca ng xu hng gim s khng nh xu hng tng gi.
Phn tch k thut th (rng ti chnh 145
m hnh hai inh tim nng uc thit lp. Ti s dng t tim

nng bi theo nguyn trng ca tnh hung vi cc m hnh o chiu
thi s o chiu vn cha kt thc cho n khi ngung h tr truc
ti im B b ph v. Cho n khi iu xy ra, gi vn trong giai
on cng c, chun b cho s hi phc xu nung tng ban u.
Mt nh l tng s c hai ngung cao nht cng mt mc gi.

Khi lung giao dch ti ngng th nht s rt ln v gim i
ngung th hai. Gi ng ca ti im B thp hn y gia vi khi
lung giao dch ln s hon chinh m hnh v cho bit tn hiu o
chiu xu hung i xung. Khng c g ngc nhin khi bin ng quay
du hng dn im ph v trc khi hi phc xu hng gim.
K th u t o lng i vi m hnh hai inh

K thut o lng uc s dng trong m hnh hai inh l chiu chiu
cao ca m hnh t im ph v (ni y gia ti B b ph v). Ngoi
ra, ta cng c th o chiu cao t A n B v chiu khong cch i
xung t y gia ti B. Cch o lung trong m hnh y cng tuomg
t nhng theo hung khc.
NHNG BIN TH T M HNH L TNG

Cng nh trong phn ln cc lnh vc khc ca phn tch th trng,
cc v d trong thc t thung t nhng bin th ca m hnh l tung.
Chng hn, di khi hai dinh li khng hon ton ging nh nhau. i
khi nh th hai khng thc s t uc cp ca inh th nht v d
khng phi vn in. Nhng g gy nn chuyn chnh khi inh th hai
vut qua inh th nht vi mt mc tng nh. iu trc ht c th
xut hin tr thnh s ph v theo chiu hng tng v s hi phc
ca xu hng tng ha ra l mt phn trong qu trnh hinh thnh inh.
gii quyt vn d nan gii ny, ta phi s dng mt s tiu chun
lc uc cp.
146 John J. Murphy
B loc
Phan Ion nhng ngudi s dng do thi deu di hoi gi dng ca vuot ra
ngoi dinh khng cu trudc d thay vi mot su ph v a gi trong ngy. Th
hai, bo loc gi se duac s dung. Mot vi du nhu vay chinh la tiSu chi ph
vd theo ty le phn tram (1% v 3%). Th ba, quy tic ph v a hai phien
la mot dang bo loc thdi gian. Ni cch khc, gi phi dng ca vuot
ngudng cao ca dinh th nhat trong hai phien lien tiep de chng minh
tinh hieu lue ca su ph va. Mot bo loc thdi gian khc l gi dng ca
ngy T h Sau phi vuot qua dinh truc d. Khoi luqng giao dich tai
thdi diem ph v a gi di len cng gip xc minh do tin cay ca su ph
va.
Nhng bo loc ny khng phi lc no cng dng, nhung gip loai

bo nhng tin hieu sai (hay rng cua) thudng xuyen xy ra. Di khi,
chng thuc su hu dung, nhung di khi iai khng. N h phn tich phi
doi mt vi thuc te rng ho dang lm viec vi ty le phan trm v xc
suat nen vidc xuat hien cc tin hieu sai trong nhng thi diem no d
cng l dieu binh thuong. V d l su that ca giao dich tren th j truang.
Viec m ot sng cuoi cng ca thi truang gi len thiet lap mot dinh
cao moi truac khi doi huang cng l dieu binh thuang. Trong tinh
huong d, su ph vd cuoi cng ca xu huang di len se trd thnh bay
gi len. (Xem hinh 5.6a v b). Chng toi se cho ban thay nhng chi
bo gip ban nhan biet duac nhng xu huang do chieu nguy tao.
T h u a t n g u h ai d in h bi la m d u n g
Thuat ngu hai dinh v hai dy duac s dung rat nhieu trong cc thi
trung tai chinh. Phan ln cc m hinh hai dinh hoc hai dy tiem nng
rot cuoc lai bien thnh mot th khc. Ly do l vi gi c xu hung quay
lai hoc bat lai tu mot dinh hoc mot dy truc d. Nhng su thay doi
ve gi ny l phn ng tu nhien v tu ban thn chng khng cau thnh
mot m hinh do chieu. Luu y rng trong mot m hinh dinh, gi phi
thuc su vuot khi dy trudc d trudc khi c su hien dien ca m hinh
hai dinh.
Hnh 5.6a Vi d v mt s
o chiu gi, thng
c gi by gi ltu
i khi, gn cui xu
hung tng chinh, gi s
vt khi nh trc ri
li gim xung. Ngui s
dng th p dng nhiu
loi b lc thi gian v gi
khc nhau gim thiu
nhng rng ca ny. M
hnh inh ny c tnh cht
ca mt m hnh hai nh.
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Hnh 5.6b V d v m t o chiu gi. Hy lu cch thc m s ph v gi

tng c khi lng thp v s gim gi theo sau c khi lng ln to thnh
m t t hp th v hiu. Vic xem x t khi lng giao dch gip ta trnh c
mt s xu hung o chiu gi nhung khng phi l tt c.
148 John J. Murphy
Hy lu rng, ong hnh 5.7a, gi ti im c bt li t inh truc

ti A. y l ng thi bnh thng trong mt xu hng tng. T\iy
nhin, nhiu nh giao dch nhanh chng coi n nh mt m hnh hai
dinh ngay khi gi gim nhm lm r dinh th nht. Hnh 5.7b cho thy
mt vi d tng t i vi xu hng gim. i vi ngui s dng
th th kh m c th xc nh c liu s thoi li t inh truc
hay c bt li t y tmc ch l mt s git li tm thi ong xu hng
hin c hay l s bt u mt m hnh o chiu y hoc inh. V li
th k thut thng ng h s tip tc ca xu hng hin ti cho nn
tt nht l bn nn ch i s hon thin ca m hnh truc khi c bt
k hnh dng no.
Thi gian gia cc inh v y r t q u a n tr n g
Cui cng, kch thuc ca m hnh lun ng vai tr quan trng.

Khong thi gian gia hai nh cng di v chiu cao ca m hnh cng
ln th kh nng o chiu cng ln. iu ny ng vi mi m hnh
Hoh 5.7a V d v mt s thoi li Hnh 5.7b V d mt c bt ngc

thng thng t mt nh truc khi thng thng t y trc . y
khi phc xu hng tng. y l ng l ng thi th trng thng
thi th trng thng thng v khng thitng v khng nn b nhm ln
nn b nhm ln vi m hnh hai inh. vi m hnh hai y. Gi s bt
M hnh hai nh chi xut hin khi ngc li l y truc l nhi l
ngng h tr ti B b ph v. mt ln, khin mi ngi hiu lm
l m hnh hai y.
th. Ni chung, phn ln cc m hnh hai inh v hai dy hp l phi

c mt khong thi gian t nht l mt thng gia hai inh hoc hai dy.
Mt s m hnh thm ch cn c khong thi gian ko di ti hai hay
ba thng. (Trn biu tun v thng, nhng m hnh ny c th din
ra trong vi nm). Phn ln cc v d uc s dng trong cuc tho lun
ny m t r nt inh th trng. Bn c cn nhn thc rng m
hnh y l s o nguc m hnh inh ngoi tr mt s im khc bit
c nhc n du chung.
M H N H DA V INH NHN
Mc d khng thng xuyn xut hin nhung i khi cc m hinh o

chiu li c dng ging nhu chic da (saucer) hay nhng y trn. y
hnh da cho thy s thay i gi rt chm v rt t tn, t di sang
ngang ri i ln. Rt kh d xc nh mt cch chinh xc thi im
hon thin hnh da cng nh khong cch di chuyn theo hung ngc
Hnh 5.8 th ny th hin mt y hnh da (hay dng trn). Chng din

ra rt chm v t tn, nhng thng nh du nhng s chuyn hng chinh.
y ny ko di trong 4 nm.
150 John J. Murphy
li ca gi. y hnh da thung xut hin trn th tun hoc thng

v ko di trong vi nm. Thi gian chng din ra cng di th ngha
ca chng cng ln. (Xem hnh 5.8).
inh nhn (spike) l nhng buc i hung th trung r rng nht

v dinh nhn (hay cn gi m hnh ch V) xut hin rt nhanh v thi
gian chuyn i rt ngn hoc khng c. Chng thung xut hin trong
th trung di chuyn theo mt hung qu lu (ni di) ri dt ngt o
chiu do nhng tin tc bt li. Cnh bo duy nht m chng cho ta thy
l s o chiu ngy hoc tun vi khi lung giao dch rt ln. Chng
ti khng mun ni iu g khc ngoi tr vic mong bn khng gp
phi loi inh nhn ny. Mt s chi bo k thut m chng ta s tho
lun trong cc chng sau s gip bn xc nh thi im th trng
lm vo tnh trng ni di vt mc bo dng. (Xem hnh 5.9).

D2J04/S7 (MU) Micron Technology Inc 12/31*7
th th a n h h in g ngy
9
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K hi lng giao dch ^

K hi Iung giao d ch ln
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Hnh 5.9 Vi d v m hnh o chiu inh nhn (ch V). Nhng m hnh o
chiu t ngt ny din ra vi it tin hiucnh bo hoc thm ch l khng c
cnh bo. MI s gim gi t ngt vi khi lng giao dch ln thng chi
l tin hiu. ng tic l rt kh pht hin truc nhng s thay i chiu
hng t ngt nh th ny.
TM LC
Chng ta tho lun v s dng m hnh o chiu chinh thng uc

s dng nhiu nht - u v vai, hai nh v hai y, ba inh v ba y,
hinh a v ch V hay cn gi inh nhn. M hnh ph bin nht trong
s chng l u v vai, hai inh v hai y. Nhng m hnh ny thng
bo hiu s o chiu xu hng quan trng v c xem l nhng m
hnh o chiu chnh. Tuy nhin, c mt loi m hnh khc ngn hn
hn v bn cht v thung biu th s cng c xu hng hn l o
chiu. chnh l m hnh tip din. Chng ta hy xem xt loi m
hnh ny trong Chung 6.
CHNG 6
M hnh tip din
GI I THIU
Cc m hnh th trong chng ny uc gi l m hnh tip din.
Nhng m hnh ny thng cho thy rng bin ng gi i ngang trn
th chi l s tm ngng trong xu hng hin ti v bin ng tip
theo s theo hung c. c im ny gip ta phn bit nhm m hinh
ny vi cc m hnh khc th hin s o chiu xu hng uc tho
lun trong chuong trc.
Mt im khc bit khc gia m hnh o chiu v m hnh tip

din l thi gian. M hnh o chiu thng mt thi gian di hon
hnh thnh ng thi th hin s thay i xu hung chnh. Cn m hnh
tip din li c khong thi gian tn ti ngn hn v uc phn loi l
m hnh ngn hn hay m hnh trung gian.
Cn lu cch s dng bt bin ca t thng. Mi loi m hnh

u cn uc x l mt cch linh hot, tuy nhin, cng cn nh rng
lun lun c ngoi i. Thm ch, vic nhm m hnh gi thnh nhng
phm tr khc nhau i khi cng tr nn tnh t. Cc m hnh tam gic
thng l m hnh tip din, nhung i khi cng tr thnh m hnh o
chiu. Mc d thung c xem nh m hnh trung gian, nhng i khi
tam gic li xut hin trn d th di hn v mang ngha ca xu hung
chnh. Mt bin th ca tam gic - dng o nghch - thng bo hiu
154 John J. Murphy
mt inh th trung chnh yu. Thm chi, di khi m hnh o chiu

chnh uc s dng nhiu nht i u v vai cng tr thnh m hnh
cng c.
Bt chp s nhp nhng trn cng nh nhng ngoi l i khi xy

ra, m hnh th ni chung uc chia thnh hai loi, v nu uc gii
thch chnh xc, chng s rt c ch cho ngui s dng d th trong vic
xc nh din bin ca th trng.
M HNH TAM GIC
Hy khi ng m hnh tip din bng dng tam gic. C ba loi tam
gic - i xng, tng v gim. (Mt s ngui s dng th tnh c loi
th t l tam gic noi di, hay dng m rng. Loi ny s uc d cp
nh mt m hnh ring bit). Mi loi tam gic c hnh dng v ngha
d bo khc nhau.
Hinh 6. la-c l nhng v d v hnh dng ca mi loi tam gic. Tam

gic i xngi xng (trong hnh 6.la) th hin hai ng xu hung
ct nhau, dng trn gim v ung dui tng. ng thng ng
bn tri th hin chiu cao m hnh, c gi l y. im giao nhau
Hnh 6.1a V d v mt tam gic di xng trong Ih trng gi ln. Ch hai

ung xu hng ct nhau. Gi ng ca bn ngoi hai ng xu hng gip
hon chnh m hnh. ung thng dng bn tri t y. im giao nhau ca
hai ung nm bn phi l inh.
Hnh 6.1b Vi d mt tam gic tng. Ch cnh trn hi ngang v cnh di

tng. v l mt m hnh gi ln.
Hnh 6.1c Vi d mt tam gic gim. Ch cnh di hi ngang v cnh trn

gim. y thng l mt m hnh gi xung.
ca hai ung nm bn phi c gi l nh. C nhiu l do khin tam

gic i xng cn uc gi l dng sng.
Tam gic tng c cnh dui tng v cnh trn hi nghing hoc nm
ngang (Xem hnh 6.1b). Tam gic gim (Xem hnh 6.1c) c cnh trn
gim v cnh di nghing hoc nm ngang. Hy xem cch thc din
gii ca tng loi.
TAM G I C I XNG
Tam gic oi xng (hay cn gi l dng sng) thung l mt m hnh

tip din. N th hin s tm ngng trong xu hng hin hu, sau d
156 John J. Murphy
xu hng c li uc phc hi. Trong v d t hnh 6. la, xu hung ban

du tng v sau l s cng c xu hung tng theo hnh tam gic. Nu
xu hung trc l gim th tam gic di xng s c ngha gim gi.
Yu cu ti thiu di vi mt tam gic l phi c 4 im o chiu.

Hy nh rng phi c t nht hai im v c mt umg thng. Do
d, v uc hai ng xu hng hi t th mi dng phi c tip
xc t nht hai ln. Trong hnh 6.1a, tam gic bt du hnh thnh ti
im I cng l im bt du s cng c xu hung tng. Gi rt xung
im 2 v hi phc ln im 3. Tuy nhin, im 3 li thp hn im 1.
ung xu hng trn chi uc v khi gi bt du gim t im 3.
Lu rng im 4 cao hon im 2. Ch khi gi hi phc t im 4

th ta mi c th v ung bn dui nghing ln. Ti im ny, nh phn
tch bt u hoi nghi liu c phi h ang gp phi mt tam gic i
xng hay khng. Vy ta c. 4 im o chiu (1,2,3 v 4) v hai ung
xu hung ct nhau.
Mc d iu kin ti thiu l cn c 4 im o chiu nhung nhiu

tam gic li c 6 im o chiu nh trn hinh 6 .la. iu c ngha
l c ba inh v ba y cu thnh nn s sng bn trong tam gic trc
khi xu hng tng hi phc. (Khi chng ta kho st v ] thuyt sng
Elliott, s c nhiu diu d ni v xu th 5 sng bn trong tam gic.)
Gii h n thi gian i vi vic hnh th n h m h n h ta m gic
C mt gii hn thi gian i vi vic hnh thnh m hnh tam gic, v

l lc hai ung giao nhau ti dinh. Theo quy lut, gi s ph v theo
hung ca xu hung trc trong khong t hai phn ba n ba phn
t b ngang ca tam gic. chnh l khong cch t y bn tri m
hnh n dinh bn phi. Vi hai ung ny phi giao nhau nn khong
cch trn ch c tinh khi hai ng xu hung hi t uc v. C ph
v tng gi uc bo hiu bng mt s ph v ung xu hung pha
trn. Neu gi vn cn trong phm vi tam gic nhung vut khi im ba
phn t, tam gic bt du nh mt xu th v gi tip tc tri v nh
v vut qua n.
Chnh v th, m hnh tam gic to ra mt s kt hp th v gia gi

v thi gian. Cc ng xu hung hi t to ra cc ung bin gi, chi
ra im hon thnh m hinh v s hi phc ca xu hng bng cch
ph v ung xu hung bn trn (vi xu hung gim). Nhng ng
xu hung ny cng to ra mc tiu gi bng phng php o chiu rng
m hnh. V d, nu chiu rng l 20 tun th s ph v s din ra u
gia tun th 13 v 1S. (Xem hnh 6.1d.)
Tin hiu thc s chi xut hin khi mt trong hai dng xu hung b
ph v. i kh, bin ng quay u quay tr li ng xu hung sau
c ph v. Trong mt xu hng tng, ung xu hung d tr thnh
ngung h tr. Trong xu hung gim, ung bin dui tr thnh
ngung khng c khi d b ph v. Sau khi c ph v xy ra, nh s
tr thnh ngung khng c hoc h tr quan ng. Cng tucmg t hai
Hnh 6.1d Dell hnh thnh tam gic i xng tng gi trong qu 4 nm 1997.
Chiu rng lam gic tinh t tri qua phi l 18 tun. Gi ph v trong tun
th 13 (xem hnh trn) nm ngay trn dim hai phn ba.
158 John J. Murphy
chung trc, c nhiu tiu ch khc nhau c th uc p dng cho s

ph v. Tiu ch ti thiu l gi phi ng ca bn ngoi ng xu
hung v khng phi l mt c ph v gi trong ngy.
Tm qu an trng ca khi lng giao dch

Khi lng giao dch s gim bt khi gi dao ng bin hp trong
phm vi tam gic. Khuynh hung ny xut hin trong mi m hnh
cng co. Tuy nhin, khi lung giao dch tng t bin ti im ph v
dng xu hng d hon chinh m hnh. Bin ng quay u s i cng
khi lung nh v s tng mnh khi xu hung hi phc.
C hai vn d ta cn cp v khi lumg giao dch. Trong m hnh

do chiu, khi lung giao dch trong xu hung tng quan trng hn so
vi khi lng trong xu hung gim. Cn i vi mi m hnh cng c
th s gia tng khi lng giao dch l iu kin tin quyt cho s hi
phc xu hng tng.
im th hai i mc d khi lung giao dch trong thi gian hnh

thnh m hnh gim xung nhung vic kim tra khi lng giao dch
thng cho ta manh mi liu khi lng giao dch trong vn ng tng
gi hoc gim gi c ln hay khng. Vi d, trong mt xu hng tng
thi khi lng giao dch ti t hi phc c khuynh hng ln hon v
ti thi im gi gim c khi lung nh hn.
K th u t o lung
C nhng k thut o lung cho m hnh tam gic. Trong tam gic i
xngi xng, c mt s k thut thung c s dng. K thut n
gin nht l o chiu cao ca m hnh phn rng nht (y) v tnh
khong bt u t im ph v. Hnh 6.2 chi ra cch thc m khong
cch uc chiu t im ph v.
Phng php th hai l v ung xu hung t nh ca y (ti im

A) song song vi ung xu hng bn di. ng knh gi phia trn
tr thnh mc tiu di ln trong mt xu hng tng. C th t uc mc
Hnh 6.2 C hai cch

o lng trong lam
gic oi xng. Mt l
do chiu cao y (on
thng AB); chiu
khong t im ph
v li c. Cch khc l
v ng song song
hung ln t nh ca
ng gc (A) song
song vi dng xu
hng bn di ca
tam gic.
tiu gi d khng n gin nhm ct uc ng knh gi pha trn.

i khi gi s chm dng knh gi ny ngay ti thi im hai ung
xu hng hi t gp nhau ti inh.
TAM GICTNG
L cc dng bin th ca tam gic i xng, nhung tam gic tng v

gim li c ngha d on khc nhau. Hnh 6.3a v b cho thy nhng
v d v m hnh lam gic tng. Nn nh rng ng xu hung phia
trn phng, trong khi ung di th tng. M hnh ny cho thy rng
ngi mua tch cc hcm ngui bn. N cng uc xem nh m hnh du
c gi ln v thng dc quyt nh vi s ph v theo hng di ln.
C tam gic tng ln gim u khc vi tam gic i xng mt

ngha rt quan trng. Cho d xut hin trong phn no ca cu trc xu
hung th chng cng c ngha d bo r rng. Tam gic tng th hin
s tng gi cn tam gic gim biu th s gim gi. Nguc li, tam gic
i xng vn l mt m hnh khng th hin tnh cht r rt. Tuy nhin,
khng c ngha rng tam gic i xng khng c gi tr d bo. V tam
gic i xng l m hnh tip din nn nh phn tch ch cn luu
hung pht trin ca xu hng trc v gi dnh rng xu hung s
tip din.
160 John J. Murphy
Hnh 6.3a Mt v/ d v tam gic tng. M hnh ny c hon chinh ti mc

gi ng ca mang tinh quyt nh trn u ng pha trn. C ph v ny
s chng kin s gia tng mnh m trong khi lng giao dch. ung khng
c bn trn hot ng nh mt ngng h tr cho t gim gi sau c ph v.
Mc tiu gi ti thiu uc tinh bng chiu cao tam gic (AB) v chiu
khong cch t im ph v c i ln.
Hnh 63b Ch s Dow Transport to ra mt tam gic tng trong th trng

gi ln gn cui nm 1997. Lu rng ung xu hung trn nm ngang
mc 3400 v ng bn dui tng. N lun l m hnh tng gi cho d xut
hin u trn th.
Chng ta hy quay tr li vi m hnh tam gic tng. Nh c

ni r, tam gic tng th hin s tng gi. C ph v gi ln uc bo
hiu bng mc gi dng ca c tinh cht quyt nh trn dung xu
hung phng pha trn. Nh trong trung hp ca tt c c ph v c
hiu lc theo xu hng tng, khi lng giao dch s chng kin s gia
tng dng ch . Mt bin ng quay u quay tr li ung h tr
(ung phng bn trn) l iu bnh thng v s din ra vi khi lung
nh.
K th u t do lng
K thut do lng trong tam gic tng tng i n gin, l o
chiu cao ca m hnh ti phn rng nht ca n v chiu khong cch
t im ph v theo chiu dc. y ch l mt v d khc v vic s
dng dao ng ca m hnh gi xc nh mc tiu gi ti thiu.
Tam gic t n g y
Trong khi thng xut hin trong xu hng tng v uc xem i m
hnh tip din, i khi tam gic tng hin din vi t cch nh mt m
hnh y. Vic tam gic tng pht trin phn cui xu hng gim
khng c g bt thng. Tuy nhin, trong trung hp ny th m hnh
vn c din gii l m hnh tng gi. S ph v ng bn trn bo
hiu s hon thnh y v duc xem l tn hiu tng gi. C tam gic
tng v gim i khi cng uc xem l tam gic gc phi.
TAM GIC GIM

Tam gic gim l hnh nh o ngc ca tam gic tng v thung c
xem l m hnh gim gi. Lu hnh 6.4a v b, noi ung bn trn
gim v ung di phng. M hnh ny cho bit ngui bn tch cc
hon ngi mua v thung c nhn bit khi gi gim. Tin hiugim
gi xut hin khi gi rt xung di ng xu hung thng bn di
vi khi lung tng. Mt bin ng quay u xut hin s gp phi ro
chn l ung xu hung bn di.
162 John J. M urphy
H nh 6.4a M t v d
v tam g i c gim . M
hnh gim g i hon
t t khi g i gim dt
kh o t xu n g d i
ng x u h ng
phang bn di. K
th u t o lng l o
ch iu cao ca tam
g ic (AB) ri chiu
n xung b t u t
im p h v t i c.
H nh 6.4b V d v m t tam gic gim gim g i ca D u P ont vo m a thu

nm 1997. ung bin bn trn nghing xuong trong khi ng bn di
phang. S ph v ng bn d u i u thng 10 x c nh xu hng gim ca
m hnh.
K thut o lng trong tam gic ny ging vi tam gic tng ch

nh phn tich phi o chiu cao m hnh ti dy bn tri v chiu
khong cch t dim ph v i xung.
Tam gic gim l m t dinh
Mc d tam gic gim l m hnh tip din v thng xut hin trong
xu hung gim, nhung i khi ta cng thy n hin din cc nh th
trng. Dng m hnh ny khng kh nhn ra khi xut hin nh mt
inh. Trong trng hp , gi ng ca thp hn ung xu hng
phng bn di s bo hiu mt s o chiu xu hng chnh theo
hung gim.
M h n h k h i lng giao dch
M hnh khi lng giao dch trong tam gic tng v gim u nh
nhau, trong khi lng giao, dch gim xung khi m hnh hnh
thnh v tng ln khi c c ph v. Trong trung hp ca tam gic i
xng, trong thi gian hnh thnh m hnh, ngi s dng d th c th
pht hin nhng thay i nh trong m hnh khi lng cng vi s dao
dng gi. iu ny c ngha l trong m hnh tam gic tng, khi lung
giao dch ti t hi phc ln hn v gim nh ti t rt gi. Trong m
hnh tam gic gim, khi lng giao dch ln hn khi gi gim nhung
li t hn khi gi phc hi.
Ycu t th i gian tro n g m hn h ta m gic
Mt yu t cui cng cn phi nhc n trong tam gic l thi gian.

Tam gic uc xem l n hinh trung gian, tc l n mt thi gian han
1 thng v di 3 thng hnh thnh. Mt tam gic tn ti dui mt
thng c th l dng m hnh khc, vi d m hnh c ui nheo chng
hn, v m hnh ny s uc d cp sau. Nh d diirc cp truc ,
m hnh tam gic thung xut hin trong d th gi di hn nhng
ngha c bn th vn nh nhau.
164 John J. M urphy
M HINH M RNG
Mo hinh gi tiep theo la m ot bien the ca tarn gic v rat it xuat hien.
Thuc ra n l mt tarn gic do nguoc hay m ot tarn gic giat li. Tat c
cac m hinh tarn gic deu ducrc chng minh la c o nhung duong xu
huong hi tu. Mo hinh m rang chi l dang nghich do. N h u m hinh
trong hinh 6.5 cho thy, duong xu hung da thuc su phn re trong m
hinh m o rng, tao nen m t m hinh gio n g tarn gic m ra. N o con duoc
goi l dinh loe.
M hinh khoi luong giao dich trong dang tarn gic ny cng khc.
Trong nhCrng m hinh dang tarn gic khc, khoi luong giao djch gim
khi bien do dao dng gi gim dan. Trong m hinh m rng thi nguoc
lai. Khoi Iwpig giao dich c xu hucmg gia tng cng voi bien do dao
dng gia. N the hien tinh trang thj trung mat kiem sot v nhay cam
mt cch bat thircmg. V i the hien so luong ngui tham gia khc thucmg
Hinh 6.5 Mt m hinh tarn gic m o rng. Dang tarn gic m rng thutmg
xuat hien nhng dinh thi trucmg chinhyeu. No the hien ba dinh lien tiep tng
dan v hai dy gim dan. Sie ph v day th hat gip hon thien m hinh. Day
l dang thi trung kh giao dich v may mn l hiem khi xy ra.
nn m hnh ny phn ln xut hin trong nhng inh th trng chinh.

Do , m hnh m rng thng l m hnh trong th trng gi xung.
N chi xut hin khi th trng gi ln chinh yu sp bc vo giai on
kt thc.
C V C UI NHEO
M hnh c (flag) v c ui nheo (pennant) dc s dng kh ph
bin. Chng thung c nghin cu cng lc v stung ng v hnh
dng, c xu hung xut hin cng mt noi trong xu hng v c khi
lung giao dch v tiu ch o lng nh nhau.
C v c ui nheo l s tm ngng ca mt bin ng th trng

si ni. Mt trong nhng iu kin hnh thnh c v c ui nheo l
phi c mt bin ng theo ung thng r rt. N cho thy s tng gi
hoc gim gi din ra ngay true v th trng tm ngng ly
chy theo cng hng.
C v c ui nheo l mt trong nhng m hnh tip din ng tin

cy nht v him khi to ra s o chiu xu hng. Hnh 6.6a-b s th
hin hai m hnh ny. Hy luu n cung tng gi rt mnh vi
khi lng ln trc khi m hnh urc hnh thnh. Hot ng giao dch
Hnh 6.6a Vi d mt m hnh

c trong th trng gi ln. C
thng xut hin sau mt bin
ng r rng v th hin mt
s tm ngtmg xu hng. C
dc xung tng phn vi xu
hng hin ti. Khi lung
giao dch gim xung trong
giai on hnh thnh v lng
li khi c s ph v. C
thng xut hin gn trung
im ca bin ng gi.
166 John J. Murphy
Hnh 6.6b Mt m hnh c

ui nheo trong th trng
gi ln. N trng ging mt
lam gic i xng nhung
thng khng ko di qu 3
tun. Khi lng giao dch
trong qu trnh hnh thnh
s mc thp. Sau khi m
hnh c ui nheo ttc
hon chnh, kch c bin
ng gi s tng gp i so
vi bin ng trc n.
cng gim ng k khi m hnh cng c hnh thnh v t ngt tng

khi c c ph v theo xu hung ln.
T hit k c<y v c ui nheo
Vic thit k hai m hnh ny khng my khc nhau. C ging vi mt

hnh bnh hnh hoc hnh ch nht c nh du bng hai ung xu
hng song song c xu hung dc so vi ng xu hung hin ti.
Trong xu hung gim, c s c mt gc dc nh ln pha trn.
M hnh c ui nheo uDC xc nh bi hai ung xu hung hi t

v nm theo chiu ngang hn. N gn ging vi hnh dng ca tam gic
i xng. iu kin quan trng trong mi ln hnh thnh m hnh l
khi lung giao dch phi gim xung ng k.
C hai m hnh u tng i ngn hn v c hon thnh trong

vng 1 n 3 tun. C v c ui nheo trong xu hng gim mt t thi
gian hon hnh thnh v thng ko di khng qu mt n hai tun.
C hai u hon thnh khi gi ph v ung xu hung bn trn trong
xu hung tng. S ph v ng xu hng bn dui s bo hiu s hi
phc xu hung gim. S ph v nhng ung xu hung ny din ra vi
khi lng giao dch tng. Thng thng, khi lumg giao dch trong
t tng gi quan trng hn trong t gim gi. (Xem hnh 6.7a-b)
C h c n n g o Itrng
Chc nng o ung trong c hai m hnh l nh nhau. C v c ui

nheo php phi lung chngct c Ct c l t tng hoc gim gi
cruc . Thut ng lng chng m ch rng nhng m hnh tip din
ph c xu hng xut hin im gia ca m t bin ng gi. Nhn
chung, sau khi xu hng phc hoi, bin ng gi s gp i ct c
hay bin ng gi trc kh c s hnh thnh m hnh c ny.
chinh xc hn, ta o khong cch ca bin ng gi trc

im ph v ban u, ngha l im xut hin tn hiu ca xu hung
ban u nh c ph v ngng h tr hoc khng c quan trng hay
chnh ng xu hng quan trng. Khong cch tnh theo chiu dc
ca bin ng gi i tnic s c o t im ph v c hoc c ui
Hnh 6.7a M hnh c tng trong th trng gi ln ca Internationai Paper.

C trng ging nh mt hnh bnh hnh dc xung. Lu rng c xut hin
im gia xu hng tng.
168 John J. Murphy
Hnh 6.7b Mt cp c ui nheo trn th ca Caterpillar. C ui nheo l

m hnh tip din ngn ha han, Jrog ging nhng tam gic i xng nh.
C ui nheo bn tri tip tc xu hng lng, cn ng bn phi tip lc xu
hng gim.
nheo, ngha l im m ti , ung xu hung bn trn b ph v

trong xu hng tng hay ung bn dui trong xu hng gim.
TM LC
Chng ta s cng tm tt nhng im quan trng ca hai dng m hnh
trn:
1. C hai m hnh u i sau mt bin ng gi theo dng thng

(gi l ct c) vi khi lung giao dch ln.
2. Sau , bin dng gi tm ngng t 1 n 3 tun vi khi lng
rt it.
3. Xu hung phc hi vi khi lung tng ng k.
4. C hai m hnh u xut hin ti im gia ca bin ng gi.
5. C ui nheo trng ging nh mt tam gic i xng nh.
6. C trng ging nh mt hnh bnh hnh nghing so vi xu hng

hin ti.
7. C hai m hnh u s hnh thnh trong xu hng gim vi thi

gian ngn hn.
8. C hai m hnh u rt ph bin trong th trng ti chnh.
M H N H H N H NM
M hnh hnh nm cng tng t nh m hinh tam gic i xng v

hnh dng ln th gian hnh thnh. Cng nh tam gic i xng, m
hnh hnh nm c xc nh bi hai ng xu hng hi t gp nhau
ti dnh. v thi gian hnh thnh, hnh nm ch nt t trn I n di
3 thng v c xp vo phm tr trung gian.
dc c im phn bit ca m hnh hnh nm . M hnh ny

c dc ln v xung_ng ch . Cng nh m hnh c, hnh nm c
dc tng phn so vi xu hng hin c. Bi th, m t hnh nm dc
xung cho thy xu hng tng gi v hnh nm dc ln l biu hin xu
hng gim gi. Lu rng, trong hinh 6.8a, hinh nm tng gi dc
xung gia hai ung xu hng hi t. Trong xu hng gim hnh
6.8b, hai ung xu hiing hi t c dc hng ln r rng.
Hnh 6.8a Vi d v
hnh nm dc xung
trong th nrng gi
ln. M hnh c hai
(itrg xu hng hi
t nJumg c dc
nrng phn vi xu
htrng hin ti. Mt
hnh nm doc
xung thng th
hin xu hi/rtg tng
gi.
H n h 6.8b V d v
m t h n h nm trong
th tr n g g i
xu n g . H n h nm
tro n g th tr n g g i
xu n g c d c ln
t ng p h n v i x u
h u n g h in ti.
Hnh nm vi t cch l m hnh o chiu y v nh

Hnh nm xut hin rt thng xuyn trong phm vi ng xu hng
hin hu v thng to nn m hnh tip din. Hnh nm c th xut
hin ti nh hoc y v bo hiu mt s o chiu xu hng, nhng
dng tnh hung ny khng my ph bin. Gn cui mt xu hng
tng, ngi s dng th s quan st thy mt qam gic c c dc
H n h 6.8c Vi d v m t h n h nm i ln tro n g th tru ig g i xu n g : H ai ng

xu hu ig h i t c d c i ln. H nh nm c d c xu n g ti iig p h n vi
xu h ng hin ti. C hinh v th m h n h nm i n l g i m g i v h n h nm
xu n g t n g gi.
ln rt r rt. V hnh nm tip din trong mt xu hng tng thng

dc xung so vi xu hng hin c, hnh nm dc ln s l manh mi
gip ngi c th nhn bit y m m hnh gim gi ch khng
phi l m hnh tng. Ti y, mt hnh nm dc xung cnh bo kh
nng kt thc xu hng gim.
Cho d hnh nm xut hin gia hay cui mt bin ng g th

nh phn tch cng nn bit p ng cu chm ngn ni rng hnh nm
n th gi xung, cn hnh nm i xung th g i ln. (Xem hnh 6.8c)
M H N H H N H C H NH T
M hnh hnh ch nht thng c nhiu tn gi nhng rt d nhn

bit trn th gi. N s tm ngng xu hng, trong gi bin
ng i ngang gia hai ng ngang nm song song nhau, (xem hnh
6.9a-c) ____ ______________ _
Hnh ch nht thng c xem nh bin giao dch hoc khu vc

ging co gi. Theo cch ni ca l thuyt Dow th n l mt ng.
Cho d c c gi bng tn gi no i chng na th n vn ch mt
giai on cng c xu hng hin c, v c xc nh theo hng th
trng din ra truc . v gi tr d bo, n c coi l tung t vi
tam gic i xng nhng vi cc ng xu hng phng ch khng
Hnh 6.9a Vi d
mt hnh ch nht
trong th ntng gi
n trong xu hthg
tng. M hnh ny
dirc gi i bin
giao dch, v th
hin gi dang giao
dch trong phm vi
gia hai ng xu
hng nm ngang.
N cn c gi l
khu vc ging co
gi.
John J. Murphy
Hnh 6.9b Vi d v
m t hnh ch nht
trong th trng gi
xung. Mc d hnh
ch nht thtg
c xem nh m
hnh tip din, nhimg
nh giao dch phi
lun lun cnh gic
tn hiu m hnh o
chiu, chng hn nh
m ba y.
Hnh 6.9c M t hnh ch nht trong th trng gi ln. Xu hug tng ca

Compaq b ngt qung trong 4 thng bng nhtig din bin gi i ngang. C
ph v i ln trn ng xu hung pha trn u thng 5 gip hon chnh m
hnh v hi phc xu hg tng. Hnh ch nht thng l dng nt hnh tip
din.
phi hi t.
Gi vut ra khi dng bin trn hoc dui mt cch dt khot bo

hiu s hon thnh m hnh hnh ch nht v chi ra hng pht trin
ca xu hng. Tuy nhin, nh phn tch phi lun ghi nh rng s cng
c hnh ch nht s khng chuyn thnh m hnh o chiu. Trong xu
hiing tng trn hnh 6.9a, ba nh c th uc hiu nh m hnh o
chiu ba nh.
T m q u a n tr n g c a k h lirng g iao d c h
M t im quan trng cn xem xt l m hnh khi lng giao dch. i

v s dao ng gi theo hai hng u rng nn nh phn tch nn quan
st k bin ng no din ra vi khi lng giao dch ln. N u s hi
phc c khi lng ln v suy gim c khi lng nh th kh nng s
l s tip din xu hng tng. Ncu khi lng tng trong xu hng
gim thi-affirxem l rin hiu cnh bo o chiu xu hng.
G iao d c h h c o n h n g d a o n g tr o n g p h m v b n
Mt so ngi s dng th giao dch theo s dao ng trong phm vi

m hinh bng cch mua khi gi rt gan y v bn khi gi phc hi ln
nh ca bin . K thut ny c cc nh giao dch ngn hn s
dng tn dng u th ca nhng ng bin gi c xc nh
sn v thu c li nhun t mt th trng khng r xu hng. V cc
v th uc nm gi ti im cc ca bin nn ri ro tng i thp
v c th xc nh ircc. Neu bi giao dch khng i th cch tip
cn ngc xu hng ny rt hiu qu. Khi mt s ph v xut hin th
nh giao dch khng chi Ihot khi tnh trng thua l mt cch nhanh
chng m cn o ngc dc v th tnrc bang cch khi ng
giao dch theo hng pht trin th trung mi. Nhng chi bo dao
ng c bit hu dng trong cc th trng khng r xu hng nhung
s khng m y hu ch khi s ph v xy ra vi nhng l do s c tho
lun trong Chircmg 10.
Nhng nh giao dch khc tha nhn hnh ch nht l mt m hnh

174 John J. Murphy
tiep dien v gi vj the mua gn bien ducri di gi trong xu hung tng,

hoc khri dng v | the ban gan dinh bien d trong xu hircmg gim.
Nhng nguoi khc co ne trnh cc thi truong khng r xu hung nhur
vay va cha dai su ph v r ret truoc khi tieu tien ca minh. Hau het
nhng he thong theo xu huong deu it hieu qua trong giai doan thi
truomg khng r xu hung nhu the ny.
N hung diem tutm g dng v b a t dong khc
Ve khia canh thori gian, hinh chir nht thung bj phn vo nhm mo
hinh tu mt den ba thng, tuong tu m hinh tarn gic v hinh nem. Mo
hinh khoi lucmg giao djch khc vdi nhung m hinh tiep dien khac d cho
bien d dao dng gi rng se ngn chn su gim st manh me hoat dng
giao dich thuomg thay trong nhung m hinh khc.
Ky thuat do lung pho bien nhat duoc p dung cho hinh chflr nhat
dua tren chieu cao ca bien d gi. Ta se do chieu cao ca bien d giao
dich tu dy den dinh roi chieu khong cch d tu diem ph vcr. Phuong
php ny giong nhu nhng phuong php da duoc de cap, v duoc dua
tren d dao dng ca thi trung. Khi noi ve phuong php dem trong do
thi diem v hinh, chng ta se ni nhieu ve phuong php do lung theo
chieu ngang.
Nhng dieu m chng ta da de cap nhu khoi luong giao djch tai
diem ph v v kh nng bien dng quay du cng c the duoc p dung
o dy. Vi cc dung bien ben tren v ben duoi trong hinh ch nht deu
nm ngang v duoc xc dinh r nen ngung ho tro v khng cu cng
xuat hien r rang. Dieu ny c nghia l khi c su ph v gi thi dinh
ca di gi truc d se tao ra ngung ho tro chac chn de tien hnh bn
tho. Sau mt su ph v hung xuong ca xu hung gim, dy ca bien
d giao dich (khu vuc ho tro truc d) cng tao ra mc khng cur chc
chn phia tren cho moi dot hoi phuc.
BlfeN DNG Dfeu DN
Bien dng deu dn hay cch do lung dao dng, m t hien tuong noi
Hnh 6.10a Vi d v
bin ng u n
(hay cch o lutg
dao ng) trong mt
xu hng tng. L
thuyt ny ni rng
chn th hai ca t
gia tng (CD) gp i
kch thc v dc
ca chn tng th nht
(AB). Sng hiu chnh
(BC) thung thoi li
mt phn ba n mt
phn hai ca on AB
trc khi xu hung
tng hi phc.
Hnh 6.10b Mi bin ng u n c tn hiu tng truc (AB) v cng

gi tr ca chn ny vo y t hiu chnh ti c. Trn th ny xu hung
tng trc (AB) l 20 im. Vic b sung s vo Jim thp nht ti c
(62) s y mc tiu gi n 82 (CD)
176 John J. Murphy
viec tng hoc giam gi chinh ycu ca thi truong duoc chia ihanh hai
bien dong song song v bang nhau nhur tren hinh 6.1 Oa. De phuong
phap nay van hanh, bien dong thj truong se duoc xc djnh ro rang theo
trinh tu. Bien dong deu dan la mot bien the ca nhung ky thut chng
ta da ni den. Chng ta da nhin thay mt so mo hinh cng co, nhu cd
v cd dui nheo thung xut hien diem giira bien dng. Chng ta
cng da de cp den xu hudng thoi li mt na hay mot phn ba ca xu
hung truoc d truc khi no hoi phuc.
Trong bien dng deu dn, khi ngui s dung d th| xc dinh duqc
tinh trang thi truong, nhu treu hinh 6.10 a, trong d dot hoi phuc t A
len B duoc tiep ni bi dao dng nguoc hung t B sang C ( thoi li
Vi hoc 1/3 AB), thi chn ke tiep ca xu hung tng (CD) se gap di
chn du tien (AB). Chinh vi the, chieu cao ca sng (AB) don gin sc
duoc tinh t diem day dot hieu chinh tai C hung len.
M HlNH DAU V VAI T l^ P D iN
Trong chuong truoc, chng ta d xem xet m hinh dau v vai nhu l m
hinh do chieu pho bien nht v dng tin cy nhat. Di khi, m hinh
du v vai cng xut hien nhu mt m hinh tiep dien.
Phn tch k hut th trng ti chnh 177
Hnh 6.1 lb V d v nt hnh u v vai tip din trong th trng gi xung.
Hnh 6.1 lc General Motors hnh thnh m hnh u v vai tip dii trong giai
on na au nm 1997. M hnh xut hin r rng nhung li din ra ti mt vi
tr bt thng. M hnh c hon chnh v xu hung i ln phc hi vi gi ng
ca nm trn ng vin c ti 60.
178 John J. Murphy
Trong m hnh u v vai tip din, gi xc nh mt m hnh tng

t m hnh hnh ch nht i ngang ngoi tr vic y gia trong mt xu
hung tng (Xem hnh 6.1 la) thp hon hai vai. Trong xu hung gim
(Xem hnh 6.11 b) th dinh gia trong t cng c vut khi hai nh
kia. Kt qu l m hnh du v vai b lt ngc. Do d, n khng uc
xem l m hnh o chiu na.
S XC NHN V PHN K
Nguyn tc xc nhn l mt trong nhng ti ph bin xuyn sut

nhng bi hc v phn tch k thut, v uc s dng cng vi ng v
ca n - s phn k. Ti dy chng ta s gii thiu c hai khi nim v
gii thch ngha ca chng, nhng chng ta s cn quay li vi n
rihiu ln trong c cun sch bi v chng c tm nh hng rt ln. S
xc nhn m chng ta dang ni dy thuc phm vi m hnh d th
nhng khng uc p dng vi mi kha cnh ca phn tch k thut.
S xc nhn nhm m chi s so snh nhng tn hiuv chi bo k thut
chc rng tt c du tng ng v xc nhn ln nhau.
S phn k nguc li vi s xc nhn v m chi tnh trng th trung

c nhng chi bo k thut khc nhau khng xc nhn ln nhau. Mc d
n uc dng cho ngha tiu cc, nhung s phn k l mt khi nim
hu ch trong phn tch k thut, v l mt trong nhng tn hiucnh
bo kh nng o chiu xu hung. Chng ta s tho lun v nguyn tc
chnh lch su hn trong Chng 10 Ch bo dao ng v hng v
quan im i nghch.
TM LC
Chng ta bt u bng ba loi d liu th c s dng trong phn

tch k thut l gi, khi lng giao dch v s lng hp ng cha
tt ton. Gn nh tt c nhng g chng ta tho lun l v gi. Hy ch
nhiu hn n khi lng giao dch v s lung hp ng chua tt
ton v cch thc chng c x l trong qu trnh phn tch.
CHNG 7
Khi lng giao dch v

s lng hp ng
cha tt ton
G I I TH IU
Gn nh m i nh phn tch k thut trong th trung ti chnh u s

dng m t phirvng php tip cn phn tch th trng a dng bng cch
ln th eo s di chuyn ca ba loi s liu - g i , k h i l n g g ia o d c h v
s l n g h p n g c h a l t to n . Phn tch khi lng g ia o dch c th
p dng ch o m i th trng, s lng hp ng chua tt ton ch yu
uc s dng trong th trng tng lai. C hng ta kho st c ch v
d th thanh hng ngy v xem xt cch ba ioi d liu ny uc dng
ln trong Chcmg 3 . C hng ta c n g nhn mnh rng m c d khi lng
giao dch v s lu n g hp ng chua tt ton trong tng thng c
giao u uc cp nht, nhung co n s t n g t iu duc dng d
on. N g i s dng th chng khon ch cn v k h i lng tng v
gi di cng.
Hu nhu nhng tho lun l thuyt th v vn d ny u ch yu

tp trung vo ng thi g i c lin quan n khi lung g ia o dch.
Trong chng ny, bng cch quan st k hn khi lung g ia o dch v
180 John .{/K'lurphy
so luang hop dong chua tat toan, chung ta sc xem xct ky hem ba cach
tiep can da kich co nay doi voi qua trinh dudoan cho muc dich dudoan.
k h 6 i l u o n g g i a o d i c h v a s 6 l u q n g h o p d 6 n g CHUA
t At TOAN V O IT U CACH LA C H I BAO T H U CAP
Hay bdt dau bang viec dat khoi luong giao dich va so Itrcrng hop dong
dura tat toan vao diing vj the cua no. Gia luon la yeu to quan trong
nhat. Khoi luong giao dich v so luong hop dong clura tat loan co tain
quan trong thir hai va duoc sir dung chu yeu cho cac chi bao xac nhan.
Neu so sanh giua khoi luong va so hop dong chua tat toan thi khoi
luong quan trong hon.
Khoi luong giao dich
Khoi luang giao dicli la so luong cluhig khoan duoc giao dich trong
khoiing thoi gian ia_xem xcu V ixhung ta dang khao sat do thi thanh
Hinh 7.1 Hav lint y nhCmg thanh khoi luong cao him khi gia hoi phuc (nh'm hinh
trim). Dieu do co nghia la khoi luong giao dich khdng dinh sir tang gia va xu
Iniwig tang.
hng ngy nn mi bn tm chnh s l khi lung giao dch hng ngy.

Khi ng giao dch hng ngy c th hin bng mt thanh ciig ti
y th bn di ng bin ng gi. (Xem hnh 7.1)
Khi lng giao dch cng c dng trn th thanh hng tun.
Trong trung hp ny, tng khi lng trong tun s c th hin bng
mt thanh ng i din cho hot ng gi ca c un . Tuy nhin,
khi ng giao dch thng khng c s dng trong th thanh
hng thng.
S Itriig h p n g t n g lai ch a t t to n
Tng s lng hp ne tng li cn tn ti hoc vn cha c thanh

thon vo cui phin giao dch chnh l s lng hp ng cha ti
ton. Trong hnh 7.2, s lng hp ng cha tt ton c v bn di
ng gi ca phin , nhng bn trn thanh khi lng giao dch.
Hy nh rng s liu v khi lng giao dch v s lmg hp ng
cha tt ton trong th trng tng lai c cp nht tr mt ngy,
chnh V! th n s uc v chm 1 ngy, (ch c s liu uc lng ca
ngy gn mi c thng bo) c ngha l mi ngy nh giao dch
v mc cao nht thp nht, v gi ng ca ca phin , nhng v s
khi lng giao dch v s ong hp ng chua tt ton chnh thc ca
ngy trc .)
S ung hp ng cha tt ton h hin tng so hp ng mua

hoc bn cn tn ti trn th trng, ch khng p h i tng ca c nai.
Chinh v the, hai thnh phn tham gia th trng - ngi m ua v ngi
bn - ch c th to thnh mt hp ng, s liu s lng hp ng
cha tt ton c bo co hng ngy mt con s dirng hoc m th
hin s gia tng hoc gim st s lng hp ng ngy hm d. Nhng
thay i trong s lng hp ng cha tt ton d tng hay uini u
cung cp cho ngui dng th nhng manh mi v s thay i ca
nhng thnh phn thani gia th trng v cung cp gi tr d on cho
s liu s lng hp ng chua tt ton.
182 John J. Murphy
So lng hp ng cha tt ton thay i nh th no. hiu c

tm quan trng ca cch din gii nhng thay i trong s lng hp
ng cha tt ton, c gi cn hiu c cch mi giao dch to ra s
thay i trong s liu ny.
Mi khi m giao dch kt thc th s ung hp ng cha t ton

b nh hng mt trong ba hng sau - n gia tng, st gim hoc
khng i. Hy cng xem xt chng thay i nh th no.
S thay i
Ngi mua Ngi bn SLH C TT
I. Mua v th mi n v th mi Gia tng
2. Mua v th mi n v th mua c Khng i
3. Mua v th bn c n v th mi Khng i
4. Mua v th bn c n v th mua c St gim
Trong trng hp th nht, c ngi bn v ngi mua ang khi

ng v th mi v hp ng mi c thnh lp. Trong trng hp th
hai, ngi mua khi ng v th mua mi nhng ngi bn li hanh l
v th mua c ca mnh. Mt bn vo cn mt bn ra. Kt qu l s
lng hp ng khng c g thay i. Trng hp th ba cng tng t
ngoi tr lc ny ngi bn khi ng v the bn mi v ngui mua ch
n gin nm gi v th bn c. V mt bn gia nhp th trng cn bn
kia li ri khi th trng nn khng c s thay i no din ra. Trong
trng hp th t, c hai pha giao dch u thanh l v th c nn s
lng hp ng cha tt ton s gim xung.
Ni tm li, nu c hai bn u khi ng mt v th mi th s

lng ny gia tng. Neu c hai cng thanh ton v th c th khi ung
st gim. Tuy nhin, nu mt bn khi ng v th mi cn mt bn
thanh tn v th c thi s lng hp ng khng i. Khi nhn vo s
thay i so lung hp ng cha t ton cui phin th nh giao dch
c th xc nh uc dng tin ang c vo hay ang c rt ra
khi th nimg. N cng gip phn tch vin xc minh chc chn
ca xu hng hin ti.
Quy tc chung cho vic din gi kh lng gao dch v s

lng hp ng c^tra tt ton
Nh phn tch th k thut trng tung lai kt hp thng tin v khi
lng giao dch v s ng hp ng cha tt ton. Nguyn tc din
gii hai yu t ny cng c kt hp bi v chng tng t nhau. Tuy
nhin, c mt s im khc bit cn uc hiu r. Chng ta s bt u
vi vic trnh by hai quy tc ny. Sauk hi thc hin iu , chng ta
cn phi gii quyt tng yu t ring bit.
K hi icng S lung
Gi GD H C TT Th trng
Tng Tng Tng Mnh
Tng Gim Gim Yu
im Tng Tng Yu
Gim Gm Gim Mnh
Nu khi lng giao dch v s lng hp ng cha tt ton u

tng th xu hung hin ti s tip tc i theo hng hin c c tng ln
gim). Tuy nhin, nu khi lng giao dch v s lng hp ng cha
tt ton gim th mt cnh bo kh nng kt thc ca xu hng
hin ti. V vy, chng ta hy kho st ring khi lng giao dch v s
lng hp ng cha tt ton. (Xem hnh 7.2).
184 John J. Murphy
H nh 7.2 th hng^ngy v d u th tro n g th i trig t n g la i th h in k hi

lu n g g ia o deh v s lu n g h p n g chua tt ton (d ng k lin), s lu n g hp
n g ch a t t ton l n g ln k h i g i gim .
DIN GII KHI LNG GIAO DCH CA TA T c cc th

TRNG
Mc khi lung giao dch o lng cung hoc tinh cp bch

pha sau s bin ng gi. Khi lung giao dch cng cao th cung
v p lccng ln. Bng vic gim st khi lung giao dch cng vi
bin ng gi, nh phn tich k thut c th o lung c p lc mua
hoc bn ca th trng. Thng tin ny uc s dng nhm xc nhn
s vn ng ca gi c hoc cnh bo rng s bin dng gi l khng
dng tin cy. (Xem hnh 7.3 v 7.4)
Ni mt cch chnh xc th khi lng giao dch s tng hoc m

rng theo hng phi trin ca xu hng hih t. Trong mt xu hung
tng, khi lung giao dch stng khi gi tng v gim khi gi gim.
Xu hng cn tip din thr khi lng gio dch cn dc s dng
xc nhn xu hung.
Hnh 7 3 S ph v gi di ln thng qa nh vo thng 12 nm 997 ca

McDonalds i km s gia tng di bin trong khi lng giao (lch. y xu
htng tng.
Ngi s dng th cng theo di tin hiu phn k. S phn k

xut hin nu s ph v mc cao trc din ra vi khi krng giao ch
gim. Vic ny cnh bo cho ngi dng th bit kh nng xy ra s
suy gim p lc m ua. N u khi lng giao dch tng khi gi gim thi
nh phn tch bt u hoi nghi v s tip tc xu hng tng.
Kh lung giao dch nh l s xc nhn trong m hnh gi

Trong vic x l 1 1 hnh gi Chng 5 v 6, khng t ln khi lng
giao dch c cp nh m t ch bo xc nhn quan trng. Mt trong
nhng tn hiu u tin ca m hnh du v vai xut hin khi gi tin
ln ngng cao m i trong thi gian hnh thnh phn u ca m hnh
vi khi lng hp nhung hot ng giao dch lng mnh khi gi gim
xung ng vin c. M hnh h a i nh v ba nh xut hin vi khi
lng tng nh thp dn v hot ng si ni hn khi gi rt xung.
Trong m hnh tip din, chng hn nh m hinh tam g i c , khi lung
186 John J. Murphy
Hnh 7.4 Cc thanh d ih th hin kh iung giao dch ui theo xu hng tng
ca Intel: Khi lng giao dch tng khi gi tng, v gim khi gi gim. Hy u
n s gia tng t bin tm ng hot ng giao dch ba ngy cui ca t tng
gi.
giao dch gim dn. Ni chung, mi m hnh gi u c nhn bit

(bng im ph v) khi khi lng giao dch tng m nh nu tn hiua
ra bi s ph v ny chnh xc. (X em hnh 7.5)
Trong m t xu hng gim, khi lng giao dch tng m nh trong

thi gian gi suy gim v tng ln trong t hi phc. M t khi m hnh
cn tip din th p lc bn cn cao hn p lc m ua v xu hng gim
vn tn ti. M hnh ch thay i khi ngi s dng th nhn thy tn
hiuca m t y.
Kh lng giao dch i truc g

Bng cch gim st gi cng vi khi lng giao dch, chng ta ang
s dng hai loi cng c khc nhau nh gi cng m t th - p lc.
Thng qua xu hng gia tng gi, chng ta c th thy c p lsc mua
cao hn p lc bn. V l do m khi lung giao dch s gia tng
be/27/87 12/31/97
Hnh 7.5 Na u th xu hung tch cc vi khi lng giao dch tng ln

qua tng ngy. Hnh ch nht nh nh du mt s quay u t ngt vi khi
lung cc ln - mt tin hiu tiu cc. Nn ch n s gia tng hot dng giao
dch khi tam gic tip din b ph v trn dung gi git.
theo hng pht trin ca xu hung chnh. N h phn tch tin rng khi
lng giao dch i tr c y u t giytc l vic mt i p lc tng gi
trong xu hng tng hoc p lc gim gi trong xu hng gim thc s
th hin trong con s khi lng giao dch truc khi hin th qua mt
s o chiu xu hung gi.
Chi bo cn bng khi lng

Nh phn tch k thut tri nghim vi nhiu ch bo khi lng
xc nh p lc m ua bn. Vic chm ch thao di cc thanh dc th hin
khi ng giao dch di y th khng phi lc no cng ng d
pht hin nhng s thay i ng ch trong khi lng. C h bo an
gin nht v ph bin nht l cn bng khi lng hay vit tt l OV
(On Balance Volume). uc pht trin v ph bin bi Joseph
G ranville trong cun sch N hng vn c bn m i g i p bn kim
188 John J. Murphy
tin trn th trng chng khon" (Granville's New Key to Stock

Market) xut bn nm 1963, OBV l mt dung cong trn th gi.
ng cong ny uc s dng khng nh tnh chc chn ca xu
hung hin ti v cnh bo kh nng o chiu qua s chnh lch so
vi ng thi gi.
Cch v dung OBV tt n gin. Tng khi lng mi ngy s

c n nh gi tr m hay dng ty thuc gi (lng ca hm cao
hn hay thp hn. Gi ng ca cao hn s to ra gi tr dng cho khi
lng giao dch ngy hm , cn gi thp hon s c gi tr m. Tng
tch ly c c bng cch cng hoc tr khi lung mi ngy da theo
hung gi dng ca.
Hung pht trin ca ung OBV (xu hung ca n) rt quan trng

v khng phi l nhng con s thc. Gi tr thc ca OBV thay i ph
thuc vo qung gi c dng. Hy my tnh lm cng vic tnh
Hnh 7.6 Vi d v mt th gi c ng OBV y thay v nhng thanh khi

iung giao dch. Hy ch n mc d dng tmng vic theo di xu hng ca
khi lng giao dch bng dng OB V
Plin tch k th u t th tr n g t i ch n h 189
ton v chi cn tp trung vo ung OBV.
ng cn bang khi lng c th theo cng mt hng vi xu

hng gi. Nu gi l nhng inh v dy tng dn (xu hung tng),
iing OBV cng phi nh vy. Neu gi theo xu hng gim dn, th
dung OB V cng gim. Khi khi lung giao dch khng cn di chuyn
cng hng vi gi thi s chnh lch xut hin v cnh bo tn hiu o
chiu xu hng.
Cc gii php thay th ng OBV
D thc s c hiu qu nhng ng cn bng khi lng vn c nhng

thiu st. Th nht, n n nh gi tr dcmg hoc m cho khi lung
giao dch c ngy. Gi sir th trung ng ca phin tng rt t. Liu
vic gn cho mi hoi ng giao dch ca c ngy hm mt gi tr
dng c hp l khng? May gi s mt tnh hung m th trng tng
gn nh c ngy,nhung lrdng ca mc gim hon mt cht. Vy c
nn n nh gi tr m cho c ngy? gii quyt nhng vn ny,
cc nh phn tch k thut th nghim nhiu bin th ca OV d
khm ph khi lung giao dch tng gim thc s.
Mt cch thc l gia tng khi lng cho nhng ngy c xu hng
mnh nht. Vi d, trong mt phin tng gi th khi lng uc nhn
vi gi tr tng. K thut ny cng vn n nh gi tr duong v m,
nhng cho nhng ngy c bin dng gi ln hn v gim s nh hng
ca nhng ngy c s thay i qu nh.
C nhng cng thc phc tp hn kt hp khi lng giao dch (v

s lng hp ng chua tt ton) v ng thi gi. V d, chi s nhu cu
ca James Sibbet (James Sibbct's Demand Index) kt hp s liu gi v
khi lung thnh mt chi bo th trung ch o. Chi s tr n Hcrrick
(Herrick Payoff Index) s dng s lung hp dng chua tt ton do
lung dng tin. (Xem ph lc A gii thch v c hai loi cKi bo.)
Luu rng khi lng giao dch uc cp nht trong th trung

chng khon hu ch han trong th trung tuong lai. Khi lung giao
190 John J. Murphy
dch th trng chng khon uc cp nht tc thi trong khi khi

iung ny ca th trng tng lai th li tr mt ngy. Mc gia tng hay
st gim khi lung giao dch cng c sn th trng chng khon,
cn th trng tng lai th khng. Tnh c sn ca d liu khi lng
trn mi s thay i gi ca th trng chng khon trong c ngy h
tr cho mt loi chi bo cao cp hcm vi tn gi l Dng tin (Money
Flow), c xy dng bi Lszl Birinyi (con). Phin bn OBV mang
tnh thc tin theo di cp khi lung giao dch trn tng s thay
i gi bit uc dng tin ang d vo hay chy ra khi mt loi
chng khon. Tuy nhin, dng cng thc phc tp ny lm hao tn
nhiu din nng ca my tinh v khng thch hp vi da s cc nh giao
dch.
Nhng bin th phc tp ca OBV cng c s dng cho mc ch

xc nh xem khi lng giao dch tng mnh trong xu hng tng hay
gim. Thm ch, vi tnh gin n ca minh, ng OBV vn hu ch
Hnh 7.7 Mt vi du hon ho v s phn k m gia ung cn bng khi lung

( y) v ng gi trong xu hing gim ca Intel d gip cnh bo v mt c
ri chinh yu.
P h n tc h k th u t th tr n g t i c h n h 191
Hnh 7.8. Vc t dung BV (ung k Hn) ngay trn thanh gi gip so snh
gi v khi lng giao dch tr nn d dng hn. th ca Mcdonalds cho thy
ng OBV a gi i cao hn r cnh bo truc c ph v lng gi.
cho vic theo di dng kli lng giao dch trong th trung - c th
trng tng lai ln chng khon. V OBV lun lun c sn trong gn
nh tt c mi phn mm v th. Nhiu phn mm cn cho php bn
v ng OBV ngay bn trn ung gi d dng so snh hn. (Xem
hnh 7.7 v 7.8)
Nhng hn ch khc ca khi lng giao dch trong th trung

tng lai
Chng ta va cp n s chm tr mt ngy trong vic bo co khi

lng giao dch th trung tng lai. Ngoi ra, I1 cng tng i bt
tin khi s dng con s khi lung tng phn tch cc hp dng
ring l thay v khi lung tht s ca mi loi hp dng. Chng ta c
l do hp l s dng khi lung giao dch tng. Nhung lm th no
gii quyt cc tnh hung khi mt s hp ng c gi ng ca cao
hn trong khi s khc li mc thp han trong cng mt th trung v
192 John J. Murphy
trong cng mt ngy? Nhng phin gii hn v khi lng giao dch s
to ra nhng vn khc. Nhng phin nh vy thng c khi lung
giao dch rt t. y l tin hiu th trng mnh ln v s ngi mua p
o ngui bn y gi ln gii hn cao nht v giao dch dng li. Theo
nhng cch din gii truyn thng th khi lng gim trong t hi
phc l xu hung gim gi. Khi lng giao dch nh trong nhng phin
nh vy d vi phm nguyn tc v bp mo cc con s ca OB V
Tuy nhin, vi nhng hn ch trn thi khi tung giao dch vn c

s dng trong th trng tng lai v nh phn tch k thut s uc
khuyn nn thn trng vi cc ch bo khi lng giao dch.
DIN GII S LNG HP ONG TNG LAI CHA TAT TON
Nguyn tc din gii s thay i v s lng hp ng chua tt ton

cng tng t nhu s thay i v khi lng giao dch, nhng i hi
c s gii thch b sung.
Hnh 7.9 Xu hung lng ca gi bc uc khng nh big s gia tng tng t

trong dng s htng hp dng cha tt on. Nhng bn phi cho thy s thanh
l mt s hp ng cn tn ng khi gi bt du i xung.
1. Vi gi theo chiu hung i ln trong xu hung tng v tng s

lung hp dng cha tt ton tng, dng tin mi ang vo th
trng, phn nh s mnh m trong hnh ng mua v c xem
l th trng gi ln. (Xem hnh 7.9)
2. Ty nhin, nu gi ang tng m s lng hp ng chua tt ton
gim th s hi phc bt ngun t hot ng mua li chng khon
bn khng (nhng ngi nm gi nhng v th bn khng ang
thua l buc phi mua li nhng v th ny). Tin ang tun ra
nhiu hn l vo th trng. Hot ng ny c xem l th
trng gi xung bi vi xu hng tng khng cn hiu lc khi
hot ng mua li chng khon bn khng cn thit d kt thc.
(Xem hnh 7.10)
3. Khi gi ang gim v s lng hp ng chua tt ton tng th
nh phn tch hiu rng dng tin mi ang vo th trng v
phn nh hin tng bn khng mi. Hnh ng ny gia tng kh
Hnh 7.10 M t v i d v s hi phc g i vng trong th tnrng tng lai. G i tn g

trong khi s lung hp dng chua t t ton gim , cn khi g i gim th so lung hp
ng chua t t ton l i tng. N h vy, xu th chc chn s l s lung hp ong
chua t t ton song hnh vi g i , ch khng ph i tng phn
194 John J. Murphy
nng tip tc xu hng gim v ue xem l th trng gim gi

(Xem hnh 7.11).
4. Tuy nhin, nu s lng hp ng chua tt ton gim m gi cng
gim th s rt g i bt ngun t s b cuc hoc nhng ngi mua
ang thua l buc p h i thanh l cc v th ca m nh. Hnh ng ny
c coi l tn hiu mnh ln ca th trung v xu hung gim c th
s kt thc khi s lung hp ng cha tt ton gim chng
minh nhng ngui mua bn xong nhng v th ca minh.
Chng ta hy cng tm tt bn c im ny:
. So lng hp ng cha t t ton tng trong m t xu hng tng

l th trng gi ln.
2. So lng hp ng cha tt ton gim trong m t xu hng tng
l th trng gi xung.
Hnh 7.11 S rt gi kim loi ong trong ma h nm 1997 v s rt gi theo

sau vi so lung hp ng chua tt ton lng, s lng hp ng cha tt ton
lng trong thi gian gi gim l th trng gi xung bi v n th hin tinh tch
cc ca hot ng bn khng.
3. S lng hp ng cha t t ton tng trong m t xu hng gim

l th trng gi xung.
4. So lng hp ng cha lt ton gim trong m t xu hng gim
l th trng gi ln.
Nhng tnh hung khc, ni s lng hp dng cha tt ton th

hin tm quan trng.
Ngoi nhng xu th uc tho lun truc cn c nhng trung hp,
trong s lng hp ng chua tt ton th hin tnh hu dng ca
mnh.
1. Vo giai on cui ca bin ng th trng chnh, ni s lng

hp ng chua tt ton tng sut c xu hung, s st gim s lng hp
ng cha tt ton thng l tin hiu sm cnh bo s thay i xu
hng.
2. S lng ln hp ng cha tt ton ti cc inh th trng c

xem l th trng gi xung nu s rt gi xut hin rt t ngt. iu
ny c ngha l tt c nhng v th mua c thit lp gn on cui xu
hng tng hin ang trong tnh th thua l. Vic h buc phi thanh l
cc v th ny khin gi chu p lc cho n khi s lung hp ng chua
tt ton gim . V d, gi s mt xu hng tng ang hot ng.
Trong thng truc, s lung hp dng chua tt ton tng ng k. Hy
nh rng mi hp dng chua tt ton mi u c mt bn mua v mt
bn bn. t nhin, gi bt u gim r rt v xung di mc thp
nht trong thng truc. Mi v th mua trong thng u s ri vo
tinh trng thua l.
Vic thanh l mang tnh bt buc i vi nhng v th mua ny

khin gi chu mt p lc cho n khi tt c u uc thanh l ht. T
hn na, p lc bn cng bt du tng khi gi b y xung thp hn
to ra nhng lnh bn gia tng t nhng ngui mua khc v gia tng
cung gim gi. Nh mt h lun tt yu t im truc, s lng
hp ng chua tt ton cao m t cch bt thng trong m t th trng
tng gi l m t tin hiu nguy him.
196 John J. Murphy
3. Neu so luong hap dng chua tat loan ttig dang ke trong thai
gian cng co hoc giao dich theo bien do di ngang, thi cuang do ca
vn dng gia sau do se tng khi co cu ph v dien ra. Thi trucmg dang
trong giai doan quyet dinh. Khng ai chc chin dirge su ph v xu
hung se di theo hung no. Tuy nhien, su gia tng so luong hop dong
chua tat ton cho chng ta biet rng nhieu nh giao dich dang nm lay
vi the truc c ph v. Mt khi c ph v dien ra thi nhieu nh giao
dich se nhn ra sai lam vi da chon nhm hiromg thi trucmg.
Gi sir chng ta c bien do giao djch 3 thng v so luong hop dong

chua tat ton nhy len 10.000 hop dong. C nghla l chng ta co 10.000
vi the mua mi v 10.000 vj the bn mi. Sau d gi ph v theo hung
di len v ngung cao mi ba thng duoc xc lap. VI gi dang duoc giao
dich ngung cao nhat trong 3 thng nen moi mot vi the bn (10.000)
ngn han duoc khi dng ba thng truc hien dang tinh trang thua
Io. Gi van dang manh den khi no ton b hoc hau nhu 10.000 vi the
bn ny diu duoc mua. Neu su ph v dien ra theo hung gim, thi
nhng ngui mua se phi dau dau.
Giai doan dau ca bat ky mt xu hung mi no pht sinh sau c

ph v deu duoc kich thich bng hoat dng thanh ly ca nhung ngui
c quyet djnh sai lam. Cng nhieu ngui sai lam (duoc ghi nhn trong
so luong ln hop dong chua tat ton) thi phn ng vi bien dng do
chieu dt ngt cng manh me. Neu nhin nhn theo hung tich cuc thi
xu hung mi da tien xa hon nh nhng ngui duoc chng minh l c
quyet dinh dng dn, v nhng ngui ny dang s dung loi nhuan tich
ly de gia tng vi the ti chinh ca minh. Chng ta c the thy duoc tai
sao sir gia tng so lirang hop dong chua ta t ton trong bien d giao dich
cng Ion (hay trong nhng m hinh gi khc), thi kh nng ca bien
dng gi theo sau cng cao.
4. S u gia tng so luong hop dng chua tat ton tai thai dient ket thc
mt m hinh gi duac xem l sukhng dinh m t tin hieuthi trudng dang
tin cy. Vi du, su ph v duang vien co trong mt dy dau v vai cng
c tinh thuyet phuc neu n dien ra vi su gia tng so luong hop dong
chua tt ton v khi lng giao dch. Nh phn tch cn phi cn thn
im ny. V lc y theo sau tin hiuxu hng du tin bt ngun t
nhng ngui c quyt nh sai, nhng i khi s lng lng hp ng
cha tt ton li gim nh giai on u ca mt xu hng mi. S
suy gim ban u trong s lung hp ng cha tt ton c th khin
nhng ngi c th bt cn i sai hung, ng thi tranh lun v s
tp trung cao i vi s thay i trong s lung hp ng tng lai
chua tt ton ngn hn.
TM LC CC QUY TAC v KHI LUNG g ia o d c h v

S LUNG HP NG CHA t t t o n
Chng ta hy cng tm luc mt s c im quan trng v gi, khi
lung giao dch v s lung hp dng chua tt ton
1. Khi lng giao dch c s dng trong tt c cc th trng, s
lung hp ng chua tt ton ch yu c s dng trong th
trng tuong lai.
2. Ch c tng khi lng giao dch v tng s lung hp ng chua
tt ton c s dng trong th trung tcmg lai
3. S gia tng khi lng giao dch (v s lung hp ng cha tt
ton) cho bit kh nng tip din ca xu hng gi hin ti.
4. S suy gim khi lng giao dch (v s lng hp ng chua tt
ton) cho bit kh nng thay i ca xu hung hin ti.
s. Khi lung giao ch di trc gi. S thay di trong p lc mua
bn uc nhn bit trong khi lng giao dch truc khi uc th
hin trong gi.
6. Cn bng khi lng (OBV) hay nhng bin th ca n c th
c s dng nh gi chnh xc hung pht trin ca p lc
khi lng giao dch.
7.Trong mt xu hung tng, s suy gim s lng hp ng cha
tt ton thung cnh bo s thay i xu hung. (Chi p dng cho
th trng tng lai).
198 John J. Murphy
8. So luong hop dong chua tat ton rat cao a dinh thi trucrng la tin
hieu nguy hiem v co the lm gia tng ip lire gim gi. (Chi p
dung cho thi trucmg tuong lai).
9. Sur gia ting so luong hop dong chua tat ton trong giai doan cung
co thc day su xuat hien cua c pha vo sau d. (Chi ip dung cho
thi trucmg tuong lai.)
10. Su gia tng khoi luong giao djeh (v so luong hop dong chua tat
toan) gip xac nhn su hoin thien m hinh gi hay bat ky su hinh
thnh do thi quan trong no bo hieu su bt du mot xu huong men.
HlfeN TUQNG Xi HOI V VNG DY

Mot trong nhng diem m chng ta van chua de cap den la dang thj
trumg rat dang ch y thircmg dien ra a cc dinh v day - hien tuong xi
hcri (blowoff - thut ngir chi hien tuong gi co phieu tng len dang ke
Hinh 7.12 Truing hop xi hoi g ia c phe ca cc hop dong lucmg lai. Trong c hai
inm ng hop. gi tng manh khi c khoi luong giao dich ln. C c cnh bo m xuat
hien t su su y giam so luong hop dong chua tat ton trong suot c hai lan phuc
hoi gi PCem du mi ten).
sau mt chui di tng im, v tip theo l s st gi. y l s kt

thc ca t phc hi true v l tn hiu cho s st gim - ND) v
vng y (selling climax). Hin tung x hi din ra ti nhng nh th
trung chnh yu, cn vng y th din ra ti cc y. Trong th trng
tirng lai, hin tung xi hi thng i lin vi s st gim s lung hp
ng chua tt ton trong t hi phc cui cng. Trong trng hp din
ra hin tumg x hi ti nh, gi t ngt hi phc r rt sau mt thi
gian tng gi di, i km mt c nhy mnh ca hot ng giao dch v
bt ng chm nh. (Xem hnh 7.12) Trong mt y ca vng y, gi
bt ng gim r rt vi hot ng giao dch mnh m v nhanh chng
hi phc. (Xem li hnh 4.22c).
BO CO COT
Vic x l s lung hp ng chua tt ton s khng th uc hon tt
nu chng ta cha cp n Bo co COT (Commitment o f Traders
report - Bo co c y ban Giao dch Hng ha Giao sau Trn Th
trng Tung tai (Commodity Futures Trading Commission - CFTC)
ban hnh vi mc ch cung cp cho cc nh u t thng tin cp nht
thung xuyn v cc hot ng ca th trng tng lai dng thi lm
gia tng minh bch ca cc hot ng - ND), cng nh cch thc
cc nh giao dch s dng n nh mt cng c d bo. Bo co ny
uc pht hnh hai ln mt thng bi y ban Giao dch Hng ha Trn
Th trng Tucmg lai (CFTC) hai ln mt thng - bo co gia thng v
cui thng. Trong bo co ny, s lng hp ng c chia thnh ba
loi - cc i gia giao dch phng h ri ro, cc nh u c ln v cc
nh giao dch nh l. Nh u t phng h ri ro thuc nhm i gia,
hay cn uc gi l nh giao dch thng mi, s dng th trng tung
lai cho mc ch du t phng h ri ro. Nh u c ln bao gm cc
qu hng ha ln, ch yu da vo h thng my mc tun theo xu
hng. Loi cui cng l nhng nh giao dch nh l bao gm cng
chng ni chung, nhng ngui giao dch vi s lng nh.
200 John J. Murphy
XEM XET D0NGTHAICA CC NHAGIAO DICH THUONG MAI
Nguyen tc hucmg dan trong viec phn tich Bao cao COT chinh la niem
tin rng cc nh du tu phng ho rui ro thucmg dng, cn cc nh giao
dich thung sai. Trong trung hop nay, ban hy th dt minh vao vi the
cua nh du tu phng h rui ro v vi the doi lp voi hai loai nh giao
djch cn lai. Vi du, mt tin hieu gi len tai dy thi trung thuong xut
hien khi nh giao djch thuong mai mua rng trong khi cc nh giao dich
ln v nh le lai bn rng. Trong mt thi trung tng gi, tin hieucnh
bo kh nng xut hien mt dinh khi nh giao djch Ion v nh mua rng
manh trong khi nh giao dich thuong mai bn rng manh.
VI T H NH GIAO DICH RNG
Ta c the dung do thi xu the ca ba nhm thi trung ny, v s dung de

pht hien nhng diem cuc trong vj the ca ho. Mt phuong php de
Hlnh 7.13 Do thi tuan ca chi so S&P 500 tuong tai cho ta biet ba tin hieu mua
(mi ten). Nhng ducmg doc dudi dy the hien nhm nh thuong mai (dudng ke
lien) mua rng manh v nh du ca lan (ducmg m) bn rng manh tai moi tin
hieu mua.
thc hin iu ny l nghin cu v th nh giao dch rng uc pht

hnh trong cun th th trng tuong lai (Futures Charts) (c pht
hnh bi Trung tm Dch v Xu hung Th trng Hng ha, PO Box
32309, Palm Beach Garden, PL 33420). Dch v v th s dng
ba ung k th hin v th giao dch rng ca ba nhm th trng trn
mt th gi theo tun trong 4 nm. Bng vic ua ra d liu trong 4
nm, ta c th d dng so snh nhng d liu c. Nick Van Nice, ch
xut bn loi dch v tm kim nhng trng hp ni cc nh giao
dch thuong mi dang hin din trongmt im cc, v hai nhm kia 0
dim khc, tm kim c hi mua v bn (uc th hin trn hnh 7.13
v 7.4). Thm ch nu bn khng s dng Bo co COT nh l d liu
hng u trong vic a ra quyt nh giao dch th vic quan st hot
ng ca ba nhm ny cng khng phi l kin toi.
Hnh 7.14 th tun ca gi dng lung lai th hin ba tin hiubn dc nh

du bng nhng mi tn. Mi tin hiu bn th hin v th mua rng ca hai loi
nh nh giao dch ln nh v mt v th bn rng ca nh giao dch thng mi.
Nh giao dch thng mi d thc hin ng.
202 John J. Murphy
S LNG H P NG QUYN CHN CHA TA T ton
Chng ta tho lun v s lng hp dng chira tt ton trong th

trung tng lai. N cng ng mt vai tr quan tng trong giao dch
quyn chn. Con s s lung hp ng chua tt ton uc cp nht
hng ngy cho quyn chn mua v bn trn th trng tuong lai, ch s
trung bnh chng khon, chi s cng nghip v chng khon ring l.
Mc d s lung hp ng cha tt ton trong giao dch quyn chn
khng uc din gii chinh xc nh trong giao dch tcmg lai, nhung d
cho ta bit uc s quan tm trn th trng cng nh tinh thanh khon
ca th trng. Mt s nh giao dch quyn chn so snh s lng hp
ng mua chua tt ton vi s lung hp ng bn cha tt ton
nh gi tm l th trng, trong khinhng ngi khc s dng khi
lung giao dch quyn chn.
T SUT b n /MUA
Khi lng giao dch trong th trng quyn chn v cn bn uc s

dng nh nhau cho hp ng tng lai v chng khon. iu ny c
ngha l n cho ta bit uc mc d ca p lc mua bn trong mt th
trng c sn. Khi lung giao dch trong giao dch quyn chn duc
chia thnh khi lung mua v khi lung bn. ng cch quan st khi
lung mua so vi khi lung bn, chng ta c th xc nh c mc
tng gi hoc gim gi trong mt th trng. Mt trong nhng cng
dng du tin ca khi lung giao dch trong giao dch quyn chn l
s hnh thnh t l khi lng bn/mua. Khi nh giao dch quyn chn
c xu hng mua vo th khi lung mua cao hn khi lung bn v t
l bn/mua gim. Xu hng bn l khi lung bn cao v t l bn/mua
cao. H s bn/mua c xem l mt ch bo nghch. T l cao bo hiu
mt th trng bn qu mc. T l thp li l mt s tiu cc cnh bo
mt th trng mua qu nhiu.
KT HP TM L QUYN CHN VI CNG c K THUT

Nh giao dch quyn chn s dng s lng hp ng cha tt ton v
d liu khi lung bn/mua xc nh cc im cc trong tm l mua
hoc bn. Nhng kt qu tm l ny c hiu qu nht khi c kt hp
vi yu t o lng k thut nh ngng h tr, khng c v xu hng
ca th trung c bn. V vic xc nh thi gian trong giao dch quyn
chn l yu to quyt nh nn nh giao dch quyn chn c khuynh
hng s dng cc yu t k thut.
TM LC
Phn ny tm gn nhng l thuyt v khi lung giao dch v s lng

hp ng cha tt ton, phn tch khi lng giao dch c s dng
trong nhng th trng ti chnh nh tung lai, quyn chn v chng
khon. Trong khi , s lng hp ng chua tt ton ch c p dng
cho th trng tung lTv qn chn. Tuy nhin, v giao dch tng
lai v quyn chn uc thc hin bng nhng phutmg php ca th
trng chng khon, nn vic hiu r v s lng hp ng chua tt
ton s rt hu ch trong c balnh vc ny. Trong hu ht nhng tho
lun truc y, chng ta u tp trung vo d th thanh hng ngy. Buc
k tip, chng ta s m rng phm vi thi gian v hc cch p dng cc
cng c hc vo th thanh hng tun v thng thc hin phn
tch xu hung nhng bin giao dch di hn trong chung tip theo.
CHONG8
thi di han
GII THIU
Trong s nhng d th uc cc nh phn tch k thut th trung s

dng d on v giao dch trn th trung ti chnh th th thanh
hng ngy l loi ph bin nht. th thanh hng ngy thng chi ko
di t su n chn thng. T\iy nhin, v ch quan tm n ng thi th
trng trong qung thi gian tuong i ngn nn phn ln cc nh giao
dch u d chp nhn th thanh hng ngy nh mt loi cng c
hng u.
Tuy nhin, s ph thuc ca nh giao dch di vi cc th hng

ngy v mi bn tm n hnh vi th tning ngn hn khin nhiu
nh giao dch b qua mt lnh vc hu ch khc ca th gi - vic
s dng th hng tun V hng thng cho nhng phn tch v d
on xu hung bin di hn.
Biu thanh hng ngy ch ghi nhn c mt khong thi gian

tuong i ngn trong vng i ca bt c th trng no. Tuy nhin, mt
nh phn tch thu o nn xem xt cch thc bin ng gi hng ngy
trong mi quan h vi cu trc xu hung di hn ca n. e thc hin
iu ny, h phi s dng th di hn. Trong th thanh hng ngy,
mi thanh s th hin ng thi gi ca mt ngy, cn mi thanh trong
th hng tun v hng thng s ln lut th hin ng thi gi ca
206 John J. Murphy
mt tun va mt thang. Muc dich sir dung do thi hng tuan v hng
thng l de nen dong thi gi theo cch thc sao cho pham vi thoi gian
c the dime m rng vchuky thoi gian di hem c the duac nghien cieu.
TAM QUAN TRQNG CA V ljb l CNH DI HAN
Do thi gi di han cho ta ci nhin ve xu hirng thi tnr&ng m d thi

hng ngy khng c. Trong phn gioi thieu ca chng toi ve triet ly ky
thut d Chiromg 1, ban da thay rang mt trong nhng uu diem Ion nht
ca phn tich do thj l kh nng ting dung cc nguyen tc ca n doi
veri bat cir pham vi thoi gian no, bao gom c kh nng du don di han.
Chng ta cng d de cp den quan diem sai lm duoc mt so nh phn
tich tan thnh rang phn tich ky thut chi nen duoc gioi han trong
khong thoi gian ngn veri viec du bao di han duoc s dung cho phn
tich c a bn.
Nhng d thi di kem se cho thay rang cc nguyen tc phn tich ky

thut - bao gom phn tich xu hung, ngung ho tro v khng cu, dung
xu hung, thoi li theo ty Ie phan tram v m hinh gi - se cung cp
cho chng ta cch thiic phn tich bien dng gi di han. Nhimg ai
khng tham kho nhimg d thi di han nhir the ny tue l dang b l
rat nhieu thng tin quy bau ve gi.
t h it k d t h i t i p d i n c h o t h i t r u n g TUONG LAI
Hop dng tuong lai trung binh c tuoi tho tu khong mt nm den mt
nm rui mi do han. Dc diem vdng di bi gii han dt ra mt so van
de cho cc nh phn tich ky thut nhng ngurcri quan tm den viec
thiet ke d thi di han the hien du lieu ca nhieu nm truc. Nh phn
tich ky thut thi trung chng khon thi khng gp phi van de ny. D
thi ca nhng chng khon ph* thong rieng le v chi so gi binh quan
thi trungd c sin ngay tu lc giao dich bt du. Vy lm the no de
mt nh phn tich ky thut ca thj trung tuong lai thiet ke nen nhng
do thj di han cho nhng hop dong den han lien tiep ny?
Cu tr li l t th tip din. Hy luu tm quan trng ca t tip

din K thut dc s dng ph bin nht l lin kt cc hp ng li
vi nhau duy tr c s lin tc. Khi mt hp ng n hn, hp
ng khc s dc s dng. c th thc hin uc iu ny, phung
php on gin nht v c s dng bi phn ln cc dch v th
chnh l vic thng xuyn s dng gi ca hp ng n hn sm
nhi. Khi hp ng n hn sm nht ngng giao dch th hp ng
tip theo s tr thnh hp ng sm nht v c v ln th.
Cc phng php v th tip din khc

K thut lin kt gi ca nhng hp ng n hn sm nht tng i
cm gin v gii quyt uc vn lin quan n tnh lin tc ca gi.
Tuy nhin, vn c mt s vn cn tn ti. i khi hp ng n hn
uc giao dch vi gi cao hn hoc thp hn so vi hp dng k tip,
v vic chuyn sang hp ng k tip c th gy ra s tng hoc gim
gi t ngt trn th. Ngoi ra, mt s hp dng dao ng cc ln
ngay gn ngy giao hng cng gy ra s sai lch.
Cc nh phn tch k thut th trng tucmg lai pht minh ra

nhiu cch d di ph vi nhng sai lch di khi xy ra ny. Mt s
ngi s ngng v th hp dng gn nht mt hoc hai thng truc
khi n hn d trnh s dao ng trong thng giao hng, s khc li
khng s dng hp ng gn nht v thay vo l v th hp ng
th hai hay th ba. Mt phng php khc l v th ca hp ng c
s lung hp ng chua tt ton cao nht da trn l thuyt rng thng
giao hng th hin gi tr th trng chnh xc nht.
th tip din cng c th c thit k bng cch lin kt nhng

thng dc bit. Vi d, th tip din th hin gi u nnh thng 11 s
kt hp d liu gc ca tng hp dng u nnh thng 11 ca mi nm
k tip. (K thut lin kt nhng thng giao hng xc nh ny uc
W.D. Gann yu thch.) Thm ch mt s ngui s dng th cn tnh
bnh qun gi ca cc hp ng, hoc xy dng nhng chi s nhm san
bng s thay di bng cch diu chinh kh nng tng hoc gim gi.
208 John J. Murphy
HP NG VNH VIN (PERPETUAL CONTRACT)

Mt gii php mang tnh cch tn hon oi vi s tip din ca gi
uc pht minh bi Robert Pelletier, Ch tch ca Commodity Systems,
Inc., mt cng ty chuyn cung cp dch v d liu chng khon v hng
ha (CSI, 200 W.Palmetto Park Road, Boca Raton, FL 33422), c gi
l hp ng vnh vin . (Hp ng vnh vin c cng ty ny
ng k thuong hiu).
Mc ch ca hp dng vnh vin l cung cp lai lch v gi c trong

th trng lai ca nhiu nm trong mt chui thi gian lin tc. N
c thc hin bng cch thit k mt chui thi gian da trn chu k
thi gian dt mua truc. V d, chui thi gian s xc nh gi tr ba
hoc su thng tr v sau. Chu k thi gian c th thay i bi ngi
s dng. Hp ng vnh vin c thit k bng cch ly binh qun
gia quyn (weightd average) ca hai hp dng tng lai cn thi im
nhm n.
Gi tr ca hp dng vnh vin khng phi l con s gi thc $,

m l bnh qun gia quyn ca hai mc gi khc. u im chnh ca
hp ng vnh vin l khng cn s dng hp ng o hn gn nht
v dn xp chui gi bng cch loi b s chnh lch thi gian chuyn
i gia cc thng giao hng. th tip din thng giao hng sm nht
ca dch v th phn tch th. T\iy nhin, ccchui gi tip
din l nhng h thng giao dch s dng d liu qu kh d bo cc
s kin xy ra trong tng lai cng nh cc ch bo. Mt cch gii thch
hon chnh hn cho vic thit k hp ng tng lai tip din s uc
Greg Morris cung cp trong ph lc D .
XU HNG DI HN I NGC THUYT NGU n h i n
Nhng c im ni bt nht ca d th di hn l khng chi cc xu

hung c xc nh r rng m cn c kh nng ko di trong nhiu
nm. Hy tng tng l ta c th ua ra d on da trn mt trong
nhng xu hng di hn hon ny m khng cn diu chinh d on
trong nhiu nm!
Phn tch k thut th trng ti chinh 209
Tnh bn b ca xu hung di hn lm pht sinh mt vn cn

phi cp n tnh ngu nhin. Trong khi cc nh phn tch k thut
khng tn thnh l thuyt cho rng dng thi th trng l ngu nhin
v kh lng, c v nh kh an ton nhn thy rng bt k mt s
ngu nhin no tn ti trong ng thi gi c th l hin tung ca mt
xu hung rt ngn hn. Trong nhiu trtng hp, s lin tc ca nhng xu
hng hin ti trong nhng chu k thi gia di chnh l lun c bt buc
tung phn vi tuyn b ca nhng rigi ng h l thuyt bc ngu
nhin (Random Walk), l thuyt cho rng gi thay i theo tng thi k
v ng thi gi trong qu kh khng gy nh hung n tng lai.
M HNH O CHIU HNG TUN V HNG THNG TRN

TH
Cc m hnh gi xut hin trn th di hn v cng uc din gii
theo cch thc tuong t nh trn th hng ngy. M hnh hai nh v
hai y trong th ny cng ging m hnh o chiu u v vi. M
hnh lam gic tip din cng xut hin thung xuyn.
Mt m hnh khc cng xut hin thung xuyn trn nhng th

ny l o chiu hng tun v hng thng. V d, trn th hng
thng, mt ngng cao mi theo thng uc tip ni bi gi ng ca
thp hn thng trc thng th hin mt im chuyn i quan trng,
c bit nu n xut hin gn mt khu vc h tr hoc khng c quan
trng. M hnh o chiu hng tun hin din rt thng xuyn trn
th hng tun. Nhng m hnh ny tuong ng vi m hnh phin o
chiu chinh trn th hng ngy, ngoi tr kh nng rng trn th
di hn, nhng c o chiu ny c ngha to ln hn nhiu.
T BIU DI HN N n g n h n
Vic nhn thc uc trnh t s dng th gi phn tch trit d xu

hng ng vai tr c bit quan trng. Trnh t thch hp trong phn
tch th l bt u vi bin di v dn dn chuyn sang bin
ngn hn. L do cho vn ny s tr nn r rng khi mt nh phn
210 John J. Murphy
tich ky thut lm viec vainhieu khungthcri gian. Neu bt du voi do thj

ngn han, nh phn tich ky thut buc phi lien tue chinh sua nhung ket
lun ca minh boi c nhieu du lieu gi can duqc xem xet. Viec phn
tich ti mi doi vcrido thi hng ngy c the se phi dugc dieu chinh lai
hon ton sau khi do th| di han dugc xem xet. Bng cch khoi dong
vi dien tien su viec ca 20 nm truc, tat c cc du lieu gi dugc xem
xet se hien dien tren do th| voi vien canh ph hop. Mot khi djnh dang
dugc thi truong tir vien cnh di han hon, nh phn tich se dan dan tap
trung vo bien do ngn han hon.
Do thj can xem xet dau tien l do thi theo thng vi chu ky thi gian
l 20 nm. Nh phn tich tim kiem nhng m hinh do thi r rng, nhng
dung xu huong chinh, hay trang thi gn ngung ho tro hoc khng cu
chinh. Sau d, anh ta/c ta se tham kho d thi hng tun S nm gn
dy, v lp lai qu trinh nhu vay. Khi ket thc viec ny, nh phn tich
thu hep su tp rung doi vdi dng thi thi trudng trong 6 den 9 thng
tren do thj thanh hng ngy, tue l su tiep can tu vT mo den vi m.
Neu nh giao djeh muon di xa hon, do thj trong ngy se dugc tham
kho de quan st nhfmg dng thi thj trung nh be hon nua.
TAI SAO BIU D DI HAN NfiN DUOC D lU CHINH T H EO

LAM PHT?
Mt van de thung dugc dt ra l c nen dieu chinh gi tren do thj di

han theo lam pht hay khng. Lieu cc dinh v dy di han c cn gi
tri khng neu khng dugc dieu chinh de phn nh su thay doi trong gi
tri dng d-la My? Dy l diem thung gy ra tranh ci trong cng
dng cc nh phn tich ky thut.
Ti khng tin l cn phi dieu chinh nhung do thj di han ny vi mt

so ly do. Ly do chinh l ti co niem tin rng bn thn thj tnrcmg da c
su dieu chinh cn thiet. Mt dng tien gim gi se khien hng ha dugc
niem yet bng dong tien d tng gi. Chinh vi the, su sut gim gi tri
dng d-la My khien gi hng ha gia tng. Dong d-la My tng se
khien cho da so hng ha rot gi.
Phn tch k h u t th trng ti chnh 211
S tn g gi khng khip trn th trng hng ha thp nin 70 v s

suy gim gi trong nhng nm 80 v 90 l nhng v d kinh in v lm
pht. Vic ngh iu chnh gi hng ha vi m c tng gp i v gp
ba vo nhng nm 70 nhm phn nh s gia tng lm pht v c bn
khng to ra ngha. n thn s tng gi ca th trng hng ha
chnh l hin thn ca lm pht. Th trng hng ha suy gim t nhng
nm 80 cng phn nh qung thi gian di gim pht. V y chng ta c
nn iu chnh gi vng phn nh t l gim pht trong khi gi tr
hin ti ca n cn thp hn m t na gi tr ca nm 1980. T h trung
gii quyt nhng vn d ri.
im cui cng ca cuc tranh lun ny l trng tm ca phn tch

k thut vi hm cho rng ng thi gi phn nh t c, thm ch c
m pht. Tt c m i th trng ti chnh u iu chnh theo nhng giai
on lm pht v gim pht v theo s thay i gi tr ng tin. Cu
Hnh 8.1 Gi vn& t nh trong nm 980 m ra hai thp nin lm pht.

Lm pht thp thng khin gi vng gim v gi chng khon tng nh trn
th. Ti sao i phi iu chnh theo lm pht mt ln na? iu c
thc hin ri.
212 John J. Murphy
tr lcri lieu do thi di han co can duoc dieu chinh theo lam pht hay
khng nlm ngay tren chinh do thi do. Nhieu thj tnrcmg khng vuot qua
duoc ngung khng cu thiet lap vi nm truc v sau do bat iai xuong
ngung ho tro chua tung duoc tim thay trong nhieu nm. R rang l lam
pht suy gim ke tu nhng nm dau thp nien 80 da ho tro thi tnrng
tri phieu v chng khon tng gi. Dung nhu l chinh bn thn nhng
thi tnrcmg d d dieu chinh theo lam pht. (Xem hinh 8.1)
B THI DI HAN KHNG S DUNG CHO MUC DICH GIAO

DICH
Do thi di han khng dng cho muc dich giao dich. Mt sir khc biet
can phi duoc lm r gia phn tich thi tnrcmg cho muc dich du bo v
xc dinh thcri diem tham gia thi tnrcmg. Do thi di han rat hu ich trong
qu trinh phn tich nhm xc djnh xu huong chinh v muc tieu gi. Tuy
nhien, chng khng thich hop v khng nen duoc dng de xc dinh thi
diem gia nhap v thot khi thi trung. Nhng cng viec can do than
trong cao nhu vy nen s dung do th| hng ngy v trong ngy.
Vl DU v l D TH? DI HAN
Nhng trang sau se cho ban thay cc vi du ve do thi di han hng tuan
v hng thng (Xem hinh 8.2 - 8.12). Tren do thi chi c ngung ho tro
v khng cu di han, dung xu hung, thoi li theo ty le phn trm,
do chieu hng tun v m hinh gi theo six kien. Tuy nhien, chng ta
nen nhn thc ring nhng gi c the duoc thiet ke tren do thi hng ngy
deu c the duoc thuc hien tren do thi hng tuan v hng thng. Trong
nhng phn sau ca cuon sch, chng ta se tim hieu cch thc ng dung
cc chi bo ky thut khc nhau doi vi d thi di han cng nhu cch
thc m cc tin hieutren d thj hng tun tr thnh nhng b loc c gi
trj trong viec quyet djnh thi diem cho nhng giao u c h ngn han hon.
Hy nh ring kich thuc do thi theo dang bn l-ga se tr nen c gi
trj trong nghien cu xu hung gi di han.
Hnh 8.2 th th hin cphiu cht bn dn cho thy vin cnh ng gi

ca mt th hng tun. S suy gim gi vo cui nm 1997 dng ti mc
thoi li 62% v bt ai t ngng h tr ca ma suy gim trc (hnh trn).
Hnh 83 y vo u nm 1998 ca General Motor bt u ti ng xu

hung v ni cc y nm 1995-1996. l do ti so ta nn theo di o
th hng tun.
214 John J. M urphy
H nh 8.4 th hng thng th hin s hi phc nm 1997 ca Burlington

Resource ngng ti mc tig t mc ca t hi phc nm 1989 v 1993.
y nm 995 c ting ng vi mc y ca nm 1991. Ai ni rng
th khng th ghi li qu kh?
H nh 8.5 Mt nh giao dch u t vo Inco Ltd. t hi phc nm 1997 c

th kim c li nhun tiu bit rng nh ca cc nm 1989, 991 v 1995
u nm ti mc 38.
Hnh 8.6 iu g xy ra vi thi di hn? y nm 1993 ca IBM nm

mc tng uig vi mc y 20 nm trc vo nm 974. S ph v ng
xu hng gim vi chu k 8 nm (nhn hnh vung) vo nm 995 gip khng
inh xu hng tng chinh mi.
Hnh 8.7 Hemerch & Payne cui cng cng ph v ln trn mc 19 vo nm

1996 sau khi gim xung vo nm 1987, 990 v 993. C th li nm 996
ti mc 28 nm gn nh ca nm 1980.
216 John J. Murphy
Hnh 8.8 th hng thng ca Dow Jones bn trn th hin m t y u v

vai hnh thnh tm ng 10 nm t 1988 n 1997. Vaiphi c hnh dng ca mt
tam gic tng g7 C ph v trn ung vin c ti im 42 gip hon chnh
m hnh.
Hnh 8.9 Tam gic i xng tng gi rt d nhn thy trn th hng thng
ca Southwest Airlines. Nhung c th bn s khng nhn thy tam gic ny
trn th hng ngy.
H nh 8.10 y ca D ow U tilities vo nm 1994 b t l i t d u n g x u hung

trong 20 nm. c nhng ngi cho rng ng th i g i trong qu kh khng
c ngha i y iju n g lai. N eu bn vn tin vo iu th h y xem i
nhng th di hn m t ln na.
H nh 8.11 Trn d th t l tuyn tnh ca th trng chng khon N h t Bn,

ng x u hung tng d i hn (ng I) c n i cc y 1982 v 1984 b
p h v vo u nm 1992 (xem hnh trn) gn m c 22000. l hai nm
sau s hnh thnh m t nh thc s.
218 John J. Murphy
Hinh 8.12 Do thi thi truong Nhgt Ban tuong tir voi hinh 8.11 sir dung ty le
lgarit. Duong I la duang xu hu&ng cua hinh tru&c. D uong 2 doc hon hi pha
vo vo gia ndm 1990 (o viioiig) fax mc 30000. Duong xu huong tang tren
d thi lgarit bi pha vosom hon trong do thi ducmg thang.
Phn tch k thut th Irng ti chnh 219
CHNG 9
ng trung bnh di ng
G I I TH IU
ng trung bnh di ng l mt trong nhng chi bo k thut linh hot

nht v c s dng rng ri. Do dc v cng nh c lng ha v
kim tra mt cch d dng nn ung trung bnh di ng uc coi l nn
tng c s cho nhiu h thong tun theo xu hung c hc ngy nay.
Phn tch th l cng vic kh ch quan v kh thc hin. Chinh

v th m n khng ph hp vi vic vi tnh ha. Nguc li, cc quy tc
v ng trung bnh di ng li d dng uc lp trnh vo my tnh
v to ra nhng tn hiu mua v bn. Trong khi hai nh phn tch k
thut bt ng v dng thc ca mt m hnh gi vi bn khon rng
d l kiu lam gic hay hnh nm, hoc m hnh khi lung giao dch
nghing v hung tng hay gim, th tn hiu t xu hung ca ng
trung bnh di ng li lun lun chinh xc v khng th tranh ci.
Chng ta hy cng nhau phn tch nh ngha v ung trung bnh

di ng. Ngay t ln u tin cho thy l mc bnh qun ca d
liu. Vi d, nu bnh qun gi ng ca 10 ngy c tha mn, ta ly
tng gi 10 ngy gn nht chia cho 10. T di ng uc s dng bi
gi ca 10 ngy gn nht uc tnh n (gi ang vn ng). V th, d
liu trung bnh (gi dng ca 10 ngy gn nht) uc tnh lin tc v
sau theo mi phin giao dch mi. Cch tnh trung bnh di ng ph
220 John ]. Murphy
bin nht l tinh gi ng ca 10 ngy gn nht. Mi ngy, gi ng

ca mi duc cng vo tng v gi ng ca 11 ngy trc th b tr i.
Tng mi s uc chia cho s lung ngy (10). (Xem hnh 9.la)
V d trn x l ung trung bnh di ng gin on ca gi ng ca

10 ngy. Tuy nhin, c nhng loi ung trung bnh di ng khc
khng h dn gin. Cng c nhiu vn uc t ra v cch s dng
ung trung binh di ng theo cch tt nht. V d, nn tnh trung bnh
ca bao nhiu ngy? Nn s dng trung binh di hn hay ngn hn?
ung trung binh di ng no l tt nht dnh cho tt c cc th trung
hoc cho mt th trng ring bit ? Gi ng ca c phi l gi tt nht
dng d tinh bnh qun khng? C nn s dng nhiu hn mt ng
trung bnh khng?
Loi ung trung bnh no tt hcm * loi gin n (Simple Moving

Average), t trng (Weighted Moving Average) hay hm m
Hnh 9.1a ng Irung bnh d i ng 10 ngy cho th thanh hng ngy ca

c h s s& p 500. Gi ct dung trung bnh nhiu ln (nhng m i tn) truc
khi chuyn hng tng. Gi duy tr trn ung trung bnh trong sut crt hi
phc.
(Exponential Moving Average)? C khi no ung trung bnh di ng

hot ng hiu qu hn nhng lc khc?
C nhiu vn cn uc xem xt khi $ dng ng trung bnh di

ng. Chng ti s gii thch r hon trong chung ny v ua ra cc v
d v cch s dng ph bin ung trung binh di dng.
NG TRNG BNH NG: CNG c D BO x u HNG

BNG VIC TNH TRUNG BNH DAO NG TNG THNG
VI KHONG CCH THI GIAN
v c bn, ung trung bnh di ng l mt cng c tun theo xu
hung. Mc ch ca n l nhn din hoc bo hiu mt xu hung
mi bt u hoc mt xu hng c d kt thc hoc do chiu.
ng trung bnh di ng theo di din bin ca xu hung, c th uc
xem l ng xu hung cong. Tuy nhin, n khng d on c bin
t dng th trung nh cch m lnh vc phn tch th chun mc vn
lm. ng trung bnh di ng tun theo xu hung ch khng phi i
truc xu hng. N khng d bo truc m chi on thun phn ng li
ci i truc. ng trung bnh di ng quan st mt th trng v cho ta
bit rng xu hng bt du nhung chi sau khi thc t din ra.
ng trung bnh di ng l mt ng cng c t dao ng. Bng

cch tinh bnh qun d liu gi, mt ung xu hung sun phng hon
uc to ra s gip d dng quan st xu hng c bn hon. Ty nhin,
do bn cht m trung bnh di ng chm tr hon so vi bin ng ca
th trng. Mt ng trung bnh di ng ngn hn, trong 20 ngy
chng hn, s theo st ng thi gi hcm $0 vi dng trung bnh 200
ngy. S chm tr v thi gian c gim xung vi ng trung bnh
di ng ngn hn hon, nhung chng bao gi b loi tr hon ton.
Nhng ung trung bnh ngn hn nhy cm vi ng thi gi hn so
vi nhng ung trung bnh di hn. Trong mt s loi th trung, vic
s dng dng trung bnh ngn hn hn s c u th hn, v trong
nhng dng khc th ng trung binh di hn hn v t nhy cm hon
li hu dng hn. (Xem hnh 9.1b).
222 John J. M urphy
Hnh 9.1b S so snKgia ng trung bnh.di ng 20 ngy v 200 ngy.

Trong khong t thng 8 n thng I, gi ct ng trung bnh ngn hn hn
s vi ln. Tuy nhin, chng vn duy tr trn ng trung bnh di ng 200
ngy trong c giai on d.
Cc m c g c s d ng tnh trun g bnh d n g
Cho n gi, chng ta ang s dng gi ng ca trong tt c cc v d.

Tuy nhin, trong khi gi ng ca c coi i mc gi quan trng nht
trong ngy giao dch v gi ph bin nht dng ng trung bnh di
ng, bn c nn hiu rng c mt s nh phn tch k thut li thch
dng nhng mc gi khc. Mt s ngi th thich s dng gi tr trung
bnh c tn h b n g c c h l y b i n g ia o d c h c a n g y c h ia c h o 2 .
S khc a mc gi ng ca vo vic tnh ton ca mnh bng

cch ly ng ca cc mc gi cao nht, thp nht v gi ng ca chia
cho 3. Cng c mt s ngi thch dng di gi bng cch tnh bnh
qun n lt gi cao nht v thp nht. Kt qu c c l hai ng
trung bnh di ng ricng bit hot ng nh mt kiu vng m dao
ng hay khu vc trung lp. Bt chp nhng bin th ny, gi ng ca
van l gi uc s dng ph bin nht cho vic phn tch ng trung

bnh di ng v l vn m chng ta s tp trung ton b s quan tm
trong chuong ny.
ng trung bnh di dng gin n

(Simple Moving Average -SMA)
ng trung bnh d i dng gin n, hoc gi tr trung binh s hc, l
hnh thc c phn ln cc nh phn tch k thut s dng. Tuy nhin,
vn c mt s ngui hoi nghi v tnh hu dng hai kha cnh. Ch
trch th nht l chi c chu k thi gian c kim sot bi ng trung
bnh (chng hn 10 ngy u tin) mi c tnh n. Ch trch th hai
l dung trung bnh di ng gin on coi gi ca mi ngy c t trng
nh nhau. Trong mt ng trung bnh di ng 10 ng, ngha gi ca
ngy gn nht uc nhn nhn ngang vi gi ngy u. Gi mi ngy
chim 10% t trng. Trong ng trung bnh di ng 5 ngy, con s
l 20% . Mt s nh phn tch k thut cho rng ng thi gi ca ngy
gn hon nn c t trng cao hn.
ng trung bnh di ng t trng tuyn tnh

(Weighted Moving Average)
Trong n lc hiu chinh vn t trng, mt s nh phn tch k thut
p dng ng trung bnh di ng t trng tuyn tinh (Linearly
Weighted Moving Average). Theo cch tnh ton ny, gi ng ca ca
ngy th 10 ( trong trng hp ung trung bnh 10 ngy) s c nhn
vi 10, ngy 9 s uc nhn vi 9, ngy th 8 s uc nhn vi 8 v c
tip tc nh th. Vi vy, gi ng ca gn y hn c tnh t trng
ln hn. Tng sau c chia cho tng cc bi so (S5 trong trng
hp ung trung binh 10 ngy: 10+9+8+..+1). Tuy nhin, ng trung
bnh di ng t trng tuyn tinh vn khng chi ra uc vn tnh n
ng thi gi trong phm v chiu di ca dng trung bnh.
224 John J. Murphy
ng tru n g bnh di ng sun theo hm m

(Exponentially Sm oothed Moving Average - EM A)
Loi ng trung binh di ng ny chi ra hai vn c Hn quan ti

ung trung bnh di ng gin dn. Th nht, ng trung bnh di ng
theo hm mfl iunh t trng ln hon cho d liu cn k hon. Do ,
n l mt ung trung bnh di ng tnh theo t trng. Nhung khi coi
nh d liu gi trong qu kh, n tnh ton tt c nhng d liu gi
trong c vng i ca cng c ny. Ngoi ra, ngi s dng cn c th
iu chinh t trng ln hn hoc nh hn cho mc gi ca ngy gn
nht. iu ny dc thc hin nh cch n nh gi tr tinh theo t l
phn trm i vi mc gi ca ngy gn nht, v gi tri ny uc cng
vo gi tr phn trm ca ngy trc . Tng hai gi tr phn trm ny
cng vi nhau s thnh 100. V d, gi ngy gn nht uc n nh gi
tr 10% (0.1), ri s ny uc cng vi gi tr 90% ca ngy truc d
(0.9). Nh vy, ngy cui cng s chim 10% tng t trng. iu ny
cng s tng dng vi ung trung binh 20 ngy. Bng cch n nh
Hnh 9.2 ng trung bnh di ng hm m 40 ngy (ung chm) nhy cm

hn ng trung bnh di ng s hc gin n 40 ngy (ng k lin).
gi tr nh hn cho mc gi ca ngy gn nht l 5% (0.5), mc t trng

t hn s c gn cho d liu ca ngy gn nht v ung trung bnh
cng s tr nn t nhy cm hcm. iu ny s tcmg ng nh ng
trung binh di ng 40 ngy.
My tnh c th lm tt c nhng iu ny mt cch d dng cho

bn. n chi cn chn $ lng ngy m mnh mun cho ung trung
bnh di ng - 1 0 ,2 0 ,4 0 ,... Sau , chn loi ung trung bnh m bn
mun - gin on, t trng tuyn tnh hoc theo hm m. Bn cng c
th chn nhiu ung trung bnh m mnh mun - mt, hai hoc ba.
Cch s dng mt ung trung bnh dng

ung trung binh di ng gin n uc cc nh phn tch k thut s
dng rng ri nht v cng l ung m chng ta s chuyn tm kho
st trong chung ny. Mt s nh giao dch chi dng mt ung trung
bnh to ra nhng tn hiu xu hng. ng trung binh di ng trong
ngy giao dch c v trn th thanh cng vi ng thi gi c ca
ngy . Khi gi ng ca dch chuyn ln trn ng trung binh di
ng, mt tin hiu mua s uc to ra. Tn hiu bn s xut hin khi gi
nm di ng trung bnh ng. Ngoi ra, mt s nh phn tch k
thut cng k vng nhn thy s t chuyn hung ca ng trung bnh
di dng theo hng pht trin ca ung gi khi c s giao nhau.
Nu c s dng, mt ng trung bnh di ng ngn hn hon (S

ngy hoc 10 ngy) s theo st ung gi hn v xut hin mt s ln
giao nhau. iu ny cng c th l tt v cng c th l xu. Vic s
dng mt ng trung binh t nhy cm hcm s to ra nhiu giao dch
hon (vi chi phi hoa hng cao hon) v to ra nhiu tn hiu sai (hin
tung li cua). Nu nh ng trung bnh qu nhy cm th mt s
chuyn ng gi ngu nhin trong ngn hn (hay cn uc gi l
ting n) s kch hot nhQng tn hiu xu hung sai.
Mc d to ra nhiu tn hiu sai hn nhung ung trung bnh ngn

hn hon li c li th l n ua ra tn hiu xu hng sm hn trong s
226 John J. M urphy
H lnh 9 3 G i ri xung di ng trung bnh d i ng 50 ngy trng thng

11 (xem hnh trn brr tri)7 T n h u t n cng m nh hn khi ng trung
bnh d i ng q u a y u i xu n g (nhn m i tn bn tri). Tin h iu m ua c
xc nhn trong thng G ing k h i ng trung bnh d i ng quay u i ln.
(Xem hnh 9.5 v 9.6)
bin ng. l l do ti sao ng trung bnh cng nhy cm th cc

tn tn hiucng uc to ra sm hom. Do , y c mt s cn nhc.
l tm ra ung trung bnh nhy to ra cc tn tn hiu sm
hn, nhng cng t nhy trnh nhng ting n ngu nhin. (Xem
hnh 9.4)
Hy tip tc ch so snh trn. ng trung bnh di hn hn

ny hiu qu hon khi xu hng vn ang hot ng, nhng s v hiu
khi xu hng o chiu. Tnh t nhy ca ng trung bnh di hn hn
(thc ra l n ui theo xu hng t mt khong cch xa han), iu
gip n khng ri vo tnh trng ln xn, phc tp, trong nhng t
hiu chnh ngn hn ca xu hng, vn hnh tng phn vi k vng
ca nh giao dch khi xu hng thc s o chiu. V th, y chng
ta s b sung thm mt kt qu tt yu: Ipng trung bnh di ng di
hn hn s vn hnh hiu qu hon khi 'xu hng c hiu lc, nhng
Hnh 9.4 itng trung binh ngn hn hn to ra tin hiu sm hn. ng

trung bnh di Itn hn thi chm hon nhng ng tin cy hn. ng trung
bnh'10 ngy quay u hung ln tnrc tin ti dy. Nhimg n cng cho ta
lly mt tin hiu mua vi vng trong thng 11 v tin hiu bn khng ng thi
im trong thng 2.
ng ngn hn hn s hiu qu hom kh xu hng hin din trong quy

trnh o chiu.
Chnh vi th, r rng vic ch s dng mt dng (rng binh di ng

c mt s nhc im. Nh phn tch k thut s c li th hon khi s
dng hai ung trung bnh ng.
C ch th c s d n g hai ung tru n g bn h d t o ra tn hiu
K thut ny gi l phng php giao i (Double Crosseover

Method). iu ny c ngha l mt tn hiu mua uc to ra khi ung
trung bnh ngn hn ct ln trn mt ng di hcm. V d, hai s kt
hp ph bin nht l ng 5 v 20 ngy, ung 10 v 50 ngy.
trumg hp u tin, mt tn hiu mua s xut hin khi ng trung
bnh 5 ngy giao ln trn umg 20 ngy, v mt tn hiu bn xut hin
khi ng trung bnh 10 ngy ct xung dui ng 20 ngy. Trong v
228 John J. Murphy
d sau, ung trung bnh 10 ngy ct ln trn ng s o ngy bo hiu

mt xu hng tng, v ung trung bnh 10 ngy ct xung di ung
50 ngy bo hiu mt xu hung gim. K thut s dng hai ung trung
binh s chm tr th tm ng so vi v ic s dng ung trung bnh gin
n nhung li to ra t li cua hn (nh hnh 9.5 v 9.6)
Cch s dng ba ng tru n g bnh, hay phuung php giao ba

Chng ta hy cng xem xt p h n g p h p gia o ba (Triple Crossover
Method). Vn c s dng rng ri, h thng giao ba l s k t hp
ng trung bnh d i n g 4-9-18 ngy. Phng php 4-9-18 ngy ch
yu uc s dng trong nhng giao dch tng lai. Khi nim ny c
nhc n ln u tin bi R .c . Alien trong cun sch xut bn nm
1972 c tn Lm th no g y d n g m t g ia t i trong th trng
hng ha " (H ow to B u ild a Fortune in C om m odities) v mt ln na
Hnh 9.S Phung php giao di s dng hai ng trung bnh di ng. S
kt hp hai ng trung binh 5 v 20 ngy l phng php ua dng ca cc
nh giao dch tng lai. ng trung bnh 5 ngy rt xuong di 20 ngy
trong sut thng 10 (xem hnh'trn) v theo kp lon b xu hung gim ca
gi du th.
Hnh 9.6 Cc nh giao dch chng khon s dng ng trung bnh di ng

10 v 50 ngy. ng 10 ngy ri xung ng 50 ngy trong thng 10 (vng
trn bn tri), to m tin tin hiubn kp thi. S giao nhau hng ln din ra
trong thng 1 theo hung khc, (vng trn dui).
trong cun sch nm 1974 ca cng tc gi, " Cch s d n g u n g

trung bnh d i n g 4 -9-18 n g y idem li nhun trong th tr ng
hng h a " (H ow to Use th e 4-Day, 9 -D a y a n d 18-D ay M oving
Averages to E a rn Larger P rofits fr o m C om m odities). Phng php ny
l bin th ca nhng ung ung bnh di ng 5,10 v 20 ngy -
nhng con s ph bin trong chu k hng ha. N hiu dch v th
thucmg mi cho cng b ng trung bnh di ng 4 -9-18 ngy.
(Nhiu phn m m th s dng s kt hp 4-9-18 ngy lm gi tr
mc nh khi v ba ng trung bnh).
Cch s dng ng tru n g bnh 4-9-18 ngy

R rng l cng ngn th ung trung bnh cng theo st ng gi.
l l do v sao ng trung bnh ngn nht - ng 4 ngy - s theo xu
230 John J. M urphy
hung tng, trnh t thch hp nht l ng trung bnh 4 ngy hin

din trn ng 9 ngy v ng 9 ngy hin din trn ng 0 ngy.
Trong xu hng gim, trnh t s c o ngc v vic p xp cng
vy. l ng 4 ngy di cng, tip theo l ng 9 ngy v sau
cng l ng 18 ngy. (Xem hnh 9.7 a-b)
Mt tn hiu mua din ra trong xu hng gim khi ng trung bnh

4 ngy ct ln trn c hai ng 9 ngy v 18 ngy. Tn hiu mua c
xc nh khi ung trung bnh 9 ngy ct ln trn ng 18 ngy sau
. iu ny t ng trung bnh 4 ngy trn ung trung bnh 9
ngy v rn ng trung bnh 18 ngy. S c mt s ln chng qun
vo nhau trong qu trnh hiu chnh hay cng c, nhng xu hng tng
vn khng i. Mt s nh giao dch c th kim dc li nhun trong
giai on ri rm ny v s khc s dng n nh mt c hi mua. Vic
H nh 9.7a C c nh g ia o dch tng lai thich s kt hp ng trung bnh di

dng 9 v 8 ngy. M t tn hiu bn xut hin cui thng 10 (vng trn du
tin) khi ng trung bnh 9 ngy ro i xung dt dng hun g bnh 8 ngy.
M t tin hiu mua c to ra vo u nm 1998 khi ng trung bnh 9 ngy
quay u ct ln trn ng 8 ngy.
Hnh 9.7b ng trung bnh di ng 4-9-18 cng ph bin vi nhng nh

giao dch tngiai. Ti m t y, xlung -trung bnh 4 ngy (ng k tin)
quay ln trc tin v ct hai ng khc. Sau l ng trung bnh 9 ngy
ct ln trn ng trung bnh 18 ngy (vng trn), bo hiu s hnh thnh ca
mt y.
p dng quy tc c th linh hot, da trn mc tch cc ca mt nh

giao dch.
Khi xu hung tng o chiu xung xu hng gim, diu u tin

s xy ra l ng trung bnh ngn nht - ng 4 ngy (ng nhy
cm nht) - ri xung dui ng 9 ngy v 18 ngy. y l mt tn
hiu bn. Tuy nhin, mt s nh giao dch c th s dng s giao nhau
ban u lm l do bt du thanh l nhng v th mua. Sau , nu
ng trung bnh di hn k tip - ng 9 ngy - s roi xung bn
di ng 18 ngy, tn hiu bn tnic c xc nhn.
NHNG NG VIN BAO QUANH NG TRUNG BNH

Tinh hu ch ca mt dung trung bnh di ng uc gia tng khi c
nhng ng vin bao quanh n. Nhng ng vin bao quanh theo t
232 John J. Murphy
l phn trm gip xc nh thi im th trung m rng qu mc theo

c hai hmg. Ni cch khc, n cho ta bit khi no gi vut qu xa
ung trung bnh ng. lm uc iu ny, nhng ung bao quanh
d s uc t bn trn v bn di ung trung bnh theo t l phn
trm c nh. Vi d, nhng nh giao dch ngn hn thung s dng mc
bao quanh 3% xung quanh ung trung bnh di ng gin n 21 ngy.
Khi gi chm mt trong hai ung bao quanh (3% t ng trung binh)
th xu hng ngn hn coi nhu uc m rng qu mc. Trong nhng
phn tch di hn, c mt s s kt hp kh thi bao gm mc bao quanh
5% xung quanh ung trung bnh 10 tun hoc bao quanh 10% xung
quanh ng trung bnh 40 tun (Xem hnh 9.8a-b)
DI BNG BOLLINGER
K thut ny uc pht trin bi John Bollinger. Hai ung bin ca
di ny uc t xung quanh ung trung bnh di ng gn ging vi
Hnh 9.8a Mc bao quanh 3% c t xung quanh dung tr u n g bnh di

ng ca ch s Dow. Nhng s dch chuyn ra ngoi ng bao quanh cho
bit th trng chng khon uc m rng qu mc.
Hnh 9.8b. i vi nhng phn tich di hn, ng bao quanh % c'th

dc t xung quaoh ng trung bnh 10 tun. Nhng dch chuyn ra bn
ngoi hai ng bao quanh xc nh nhng im cc ca th trng.
k thut bao quanh, ngoi tr vic di bng Bollinger c t hai

lch chun pha trn v pha dui ng trung binh di ng - ng c
thi hn thng l 20 ngy. lch chun (Standard Deviation) l mt
khi nim mang tnh thng k m t cch thc m gi uc phn tn
xung quanh gi tr trung bnh. Vic s dng hai hai umg lch chun
ny m bo 95% d liu gi c nm trong phm vi di bng giao dch.
Thng thung, gi uc xem nh m rng qu mc ln trn (mua qu
mc) khi chm phi di bn trn. Chng uc xem nh l m rng qu
mc xung dui (bn qu mc) khi chm vo di bn dui. (Xem hnh
9.9 a-b).
234 John J. M urphy
H n h 9.9a D i b n g B o llin g er dc v quanh ig tru n g b n h d i n g 20

ngy. Trong 8U'\t th i im t th n g 8 n th n g I, n h iu ln g i v t ra khi
d i bng. M i Ji x u h ng n g p h c h o i th g i c s d a o n g g i a d i bn
trn v u ng trun g bnh d i n g 2 0 ngy.
H n h 9.9b D i bng B o lling er cng hiu qu trn bu tun vcri u ng trun g

bhi 20 ngy n h l ng chnh gia. M i m t s va chm d i bn di (xem
vng trn) u bo h iu m t y th trng quan trng v m t c h i mua.
VIC S DNG DI BNG BOLLINGER NH L MC TIU

Cch on gin nht d s dng di Bolllinger l xem di bn trn v
di nh l nhng mc tiu gi. Ni cch khc, nu nhu gi c bt ln
t di bn di v vt ln trn dng trung bnh 20 ngy th di bri
trn s tr thnh mc tiu gi cao hn. Vicgiao nhau di ung trung
binh di ng 20 ngy s gip xc nh di bn dui nh l mc tiu theo
xu hung gim. Trong mt xu hng di ln kh mnh, gi s thung
dao ng gia di bn trn v ng trung bnh 20 ngy. Trong trng
hp , s giao nhau xung bn di ung trung bnh 20 ngy .bo
hiu xu hng o chiu i xung.
CHIU RNG DI BNG O LNG DAO NG
Di bng Bollinger khc vi ung bao quanh mt dim c bn.

Trong khi ung bao quanh lun c mt t l phn trm chiu rng c
nh th di bng Bollinger li c th m rng v thu hep ty vo s
bin dng ca 20 ngy gn nht. Trong giai on gia tng bin dng
gi, khong cch gia hai di s m rng ra. Nguc li, trong giai on
suy gim bin ng gi, khong cch d s c rt ngn. Hai di ny
c khuynh hng m rng v thu hp lun phin nhau. Khi khong
cch gia hai di rng mt cch khc thung, l tn hiukt thc xu
hirng hin ti. Khi di bng thu hp qu nhiu, thng l tn
hiukhi ng xu hung mi ca th trung. Di bng Bollinger c th
c p dng cho d th gi hng tun v hng thng bng cch s dng
20 tun v 20 thng thay v 20 ngy. Di bng Bollinger hot ng hiu
qu nht khi kt hp vi nhng chi bo dao ng mua/bn qu mc
c nhc n trong chng k tip. (Xem ph lc A c thm v
k thut s dng di bng).
t ung tru n g bnh vo tm

Theo thng k, cch v ung trung bnh di ng chnh xc nht l dt
n vo tm. C ngha l t n vo chnh gia chu k thi gian n
hng n. Vi d, ng trang bnh 10 ngy s uc v nguc v 5
236 John J. Murphy
ngy. ng trung bnh 20 ngy c v ngc v 10 ngy. 1\jy nhin,

vic dt ung trung bnh vo tm cng gy ra bt cp khi to ra nhng
tin hiuchuyn i xu hung chm hon nhiu. Chnh v th, ung
trung bnh di dng thng uc t ti cui chu k thi gian m n th
hin ch khng phi ti im chinh gia. K thut t gia ny c
nh phn tch chu k s dng nhm tch bit cc chu k th trng c
bn.
NG TRUNG BNH GN cht KT vi cc chu k

THI GIAN
Nhiu nh phn tch th trung tin rng chu k thi gian ng vai tr rt
quan trng trong hot ng ca th trng. V nhng chu k thi gian
ny duc lp i lp li v c th uc o lng nn chng ta c th xc
nh c thi gian gn xut hin inh hoc y th trung. Nhiu chu
k thi gian khc nhau tn ti cng lc, t chu k ngn hn 5 ngy cho
n chu k di 54 nm ca Kondratie. Chng ta s nghin cu su hon
lnh vc hp dn ny ca phn tch k thut Chng 14.
Ch chu k c gii thiu y ch nhn mnh rng dung nh

c mt mi quan h gia nhng chu k cn bn nh hung n mt th
trung nht nh v nhng ng trung bnh hiu chinh khi s dng.
Ni cch khc, ng trung bnh di ng c th c iu chnh ph
hp vi cc chu k chi phi trong tng th trng.
Dng nh c mt mi quan h r rng gia nhng ung trung

bnh di ng v chu k thi gian. V d, chu k thng l mt trong
nhng chu k ph bin nht xut hin xuyn sut trong th trng hng
ha. Mt thi^t c 20-21 ngy giao dch. Chu k c xu hung lin quan
hi ha vi chu k ngn hn hay di hn k tip theo cp s 2. C ngha
l chu k di hn k tip c chiu di gp i mt chu k v chu k
ngn hon k tip bng mt na chiu di mt chu k.
Chnh v th, chu k thng c th gii thch s ph bin ca dng

trung bnh di ng 5,10,20, v 40 ngy. Chu k' 20 ngy o lung chu
k thng. ung trung binh 40 ngy s gp i ng trung bnh 20

ngy. ung trung binh 10 ngy th bng phn na ng trung bnh
20 ngy v ung trung bnh s ngy mt ln na ch bng mt na
ng 10 ngy.
Nhiu ng trung bnh c s dng ph bin (bao gm ung

trung bnh 4 ,9 v 18 ngy, nhng iing bt ngun t ung trung bnh
5, 10 v 20 ngy) c th uc gii thch bng l thuyt tc dng tun
hon v mi tng quan hi ha vi chu k ln cn. Nhn dy, chu k
4 tun cng c th gip ta gii thch tinh hiu qu ca quy tc 4 tun -
quy tc s uc gii thch phn sau ca chung ny cng quy tc 2
tun.
CC CON S FIBONACCI UC s DNG NH NG

TRUNG BNH DI NG
Chng ta s kho st chui so Fibonacci trong chung l thuyt sng
Elliott. Tuy nhin, ti mun d cp rng, chui s b n ny - 13, 21,
34, 55,.,. rt hu ch cho vic phn tch ng trung bnh ng. N
khng nhng dc s dng cho th hng ngy m cn cho c th
hng tun. ng trung binh di ng 21 ngy l mt con s Fibonacci.
Trn biu hng tun, ng trung binh di ng 13 tun hot ng
rt hiu qu trong c th trng hng ha v tuong lai. Chng ta s dnh
thi gian cho nhng con s ny trong Chung 13.
NG TRUNG BNH NG C NG DNG CHO

TH DI HN
Bn c khng nn xem nh vic s dng k thut ny vo phn tch
xu hung di hn. Nhng ung trung bnh di hn hn, chng hn 10
hoc 13 tun, kt hp vi ung trung binh 30 hoc 40 ngy uc s
dng trong phn tch chng khon t lu nhung li chua nhn uc
nhiu s quan tm trong th trng tuong lai. Nhng ng trung bnh
di ng 10 v 40 tun c th uc s dng quan st xu hung ban
u ca th tuong lai v chng khon hng tun. (Xem hnh 9.10)
238 John J. Murphy
Hnh 9.10 ng trung bnh di dng vn hnh hiu qu trn th hng

tun. ng tnm g Bnh di ng 40 tun c chc nng h tr giai on hiu
chnh th trng gi ln nh (rn hnh.
N h ng n g h v b t n g i vi ng tr u n g b n h d n g
Mt trong nhng lai th n nht ca vic s dng ung trung bnh

ng, v cng l mt trong nhng l o cho thy chng c s dng
ph bin vi t cch nh nhng h thng tun theo xu hng, chinh l
v n th hin mt s cu chm ngn u i nht v s giao dch thnh
cng. l chng giao dch theo hng pht trin ca th trng.
Chng khin li nhun ko n v thua ri . H thng ng trung
bnh di ng khin ngi s dng tun theo nhng quy lut ny bng
cch to ra nhng tn hiu mua v bn c th da trn nhng nguyn
c ny.
Tuy nhin, v bn cht, chng l cng c tun theo xu hng do ,

ng trung bnh di ng ch hot ng hiu qu trong nhng giai on
c xu hng r rng. Chng khng gip ch c g khi th trng cc
k dao ng v i ngang trong mt thi gian. V dng th trng th
li chim mt na hoc mt phn ba thi gian.
Tuy nhin, s tht v tnh v hiu ca chng trong nhng giai on

quan trng gii thch v sao vic ph thuc qu nhiu vo k thut
ng trung binh di ng l ht sc nguy him. Trong nhng th trng
c xu hung nht nh, ung trung bnh di dng ng vai tr thng
soi. Ta chi cn ci dt ch t ng. Cn trong nhng lc khc,
phng php khng c xu hng ging nh ch bo dao ng mua-bn
qu mc s ph hp hn. (Trong Chng 15, chng ta s ni n mt
chi bo dao dng gi l ADX gip xc nh khi no th th trng c xu
hung v khi no thi khng, v xu th chung ca th trung ng h k
thui ng trung binh di ng theo xu hng hay ch bo dao dng
khng theo xu hung.)
ng trung bnh di dng nh l chi bo s dao ng gi

Mt cch d thit k ch bo s dao ng gi l so snh s khc nhau
gia hai ng trung binh di dng. Chnh v th m phng php giao
i gia hai ng trang bnh di ng thng c ngha hn v tr
thnh mt k thut hu ch hn. Chng ta s xem xt cch thc m
chng c thc hin nh trong Chng 10. Mt phucmg php so snh
hai dng trung bnh hm m uc gi l ng trung bnh hi t phn
k (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD). N uc s
dng phn no nh mt chi bo s dao ng gi. Do d, chng ta s
ngng vic gii thch k thut ny cho n khi tho lun v ton b ch
chi bo dao dng trong Chng 10.
ung trung bnh di ng uc p dng cho cc dliu k thut khc

ng trung binh di ng c th uc p dng cho bt c d liu gi
v chi bo no. N cng c th c s dng cho khi lng giao dch
v s lmg hp dng cha tt ton bao gm c cn bng khi lurng.
ng trung binh di dng cn c th c s dng cho nhiu loi t
sut v ch bo khc nhau. N cng c th urc p dng cho cc ch
bo v s dao ng gi.
240 John J. Murphy
QUY TC HNG TUN

C nhng gii php thay th i vi ng trung bnh di ng nh l
mt cng c tun theo xu hng. Mt trong nhng k thut ph bin v
hiu qu nht l knh gi tun (Weekly Price Channel), hy n gin l
quy tc hng tun. K thut ny c nhiu li ch ca dng trung bnh
dng, nhng mt t thi gian hn v d s dng hn.
Nh nhng ci tin trong ngnh cng ngh my tinh ca thp nin

tnic, mt s lung ng k cc nghin cu v s pht trin ca h
thng giao dch k thut d uc thc thi. Nhng h thng ny v bn
cht u uc thc hin bng my mc, ngha l cm xc v s iu
chnh ca con ngui u b loi b. Cng ngy, chng cng tr nn tinh
vi v phc tp hn. Truc ht, cc ung trung binh di dng gin n
uc ua vo s dng. Sau d, s giao i v giao ba ca cc ung
trung bnh di ng uc b sung. V ri ng trung bnh c tnh t
trng tun tnh v c lm phng theo hm m. v c bn, nhng h
thng ny u tun theo xu hng, ngha l mc tiu ca chng l nhm
nhn din v sau d giao dch theo chiu hung ca xu hng hin ti.
Tuy nhin, vi s say m dang cng ngy cng gia tng ca gii s
dng th cng nh s pht trin ca cc ch bo v nhng h thng
phc tp hn, ngui ta c xu hung b qua c k thut n gin hn -
nhng k thut tip tc vn hnh hiu qu v tr vng qua s kim
chng ca thi gian. Chng ta s cng tho lun v mt trong nhng k
thut n gin nht - quy tc hng tun.
Nm 1970, mt cun sch nh c ta s tay nh giao dch

(Traders Notebook) d uc Dunn & Hargitt Services Lafayette,
Indiana, xut bn. Cc h thng giao dch hng ha ph bin nht u
c kim tra v so snh bng vi tnh. Kt lun cui cng ca tt c cc
nghin cu cho thy h thng hiu qu nht trong cc h thng uc
kim chng chnh l quy tc 4 tun do Richard Dochian khi xng.
Donchian dc xem l ngi i tin phong trong lnh vc giao dch
theo xu hng hng ha bng h thng my tnh. (Nm 1983, Donchian
d uc M anaged Account Reports trao gii v c nhng ng gp

gi tr nht cho lnh vc qun l tin t trong th trung tng lai, v
gii thiu gii thung ca Dochian cho nhng ng vin xng ng.
Mt nghin cu gn y uc thc hin bi Louis Lakac, cu gim

c ph trch mng nghin cu ca Dunn & Hargitt ng thi l ch
tch uong nhim ca Wizard Trading (mt hng t vn v giao dch
hng ha Massachust) d ng h nhng kt lun trc vi lp
lun rng cc h thng ph v (hoc knh gi) tuong t quy tc hng
tun tip tc th hin nhng kt qu tt hn. (Lukac v cc cng s)*
Trong s nhng h thng duc kim nghim t nm 1975-1984, ch

c 4 h thng to ra li nhun ng k. Hai trong bn h thng ny l
h thng ph v knh gi v mt l h thng giao i ung trung bnh
di ng. Mt bi vit sau ny ca Lukac v Brorsen c ng trn The
Financial Review (12/1990) cng b kt qu nghin cu mang tinh
bao qut hom v dJiu t nm 1976-1986 vi vic so snh 23 h thng
giao dch k thut. Mt ln na, h thng ph v knh gi v ung
trung binh di ng li chim v tr hng u. Cui cng, Lukac kt lun
rng mt h thng ph v knh gi l s la chn tin quyt ca ng v
l im khi u hon ho nht cho vic kim nghim v pht trin tt
c cc h thng giao dch k thut.
Q uy t c 4 tu n
v co bn, quy tc 4 tun c s dng cho vic giao dch trn th

trung tng lai.
H thng da trn quy tc 4 tun mang tnh on gin:
1. Bao gm cc v th bn v tin hnh mua khi gi vut ro nhng

ngung cao trong 4 tun truc.
2. Thanh l v th mua v tin hnh bn khi gi ri xung di

nhng ngung thp ca 4 tun truc.
Xem n i s
242 John J. Murphy
N hu da dugc trinh bay a day, ve ban chat, he thong mang tinh tiep
dien, nghia l nh giao djch lun c mot vj the, hoc mua hoc ban.
Thng thircmg, cc he thong tiep dien c mt khuyet diem co ban.
Chng hien dien tren thj truong v roi vo tinh trang lui cua trong
cc chu ky thi trucmg v huong. Chng ta tng nhn manh ring cat he
thong tun theo xu huong khng hieu qua khi thj trucmg di ngang, hay
con dugc goi la thi trucmg khng xu huong.
Quy tic 4 tuan c the dugc tuy bien thanh he thng phi tiep dien.
Dieu ny dugc thuc hien bng cch sii dung qung thcri gian ngin hem
- quy tic mt hoc hai tun - cho muc dich thanh ly. Noi cch khac, sir
ph v 4 tuan se dugc coi l can thiet de kheri dng mt vi the mai,
nhung tin hieu mt hoc hai tun theo huong ngiroc lai se bao dam viec
thanh ly vj the. Nh giao djch se ri khi thj trudng cho den khi su ph
v 4 tuan xuat hien.
Tinh hop ly an sau he thong ny dugc dua tren cc nguyen tic ky

thut ben vfing . Cc tin hieu cua n rat r rang v chinh xc mt cch
may mc. Vi l he thong tun theo xu hucmg nen n dm bo viec tham
gia dien ra theo dng chieu hircmg ca mt xu hu6ng quan trong. N
cng dugc thiet ke de theo duoi cu chm ngn ve su hieu qua trong
giao djch - keo lai nhun den, day thua lo di. Mt dc diem khc khng
the b qua l phuong php ny c xu hung giao djch it thung xuyen
hon nen phi hoa hong cng thap hon. Uu diem khc l he thong c the
dugc thuc hien cng hoc khng can su gip d ca may tinh.
Su chi trich chinh doi voi quy tc hng tuan cng tuong tu nhu su
chi trich chla vo tat c cc phuong php tun theo xu hung, tue l
chng khng he cham dinh hoc dy. Nhung cc he thong tun theo xu
hung lm gi? Diem quan trong can ghi nh l it nhat quy tc 4 tuan
the hien tot nhu hau het cc he thng tun theo xu hung khc v tot
hon nhieu he thong khc, nhung c nhieu lgi ich gia tng tr chinh su
dem gin den kh tin.
Nhng iu chnh i vi quy tc 4 tun

Mc d chng ta ang x l quy tc 4 tun dng nguyn bn, song
vn c mt s cch iu chnh c th uc p dng. T h nht, quy tc
ny khng nn c s dng nh m t h thng giao dch. Cc tn hiu
hng un c th ch! n thun c s dng nh m t ch bo k thut
khc nhn bit s ph v v o chiu xu hng. S ph v hng
tun c th c dng nh m t b c xc nhn cho cc k thut khc,
chng hn nh k thut giao nhau ca ng trung bnh di ng. Quy
tc m t hoc hai tun c chc nng ca m t b lc hon ho. Tn hiu
giao nhau ng trung bnh di ng c th c xc nhn bi s ph
v hai tun theo cng m t hng c th nm y m t v th th
trumg.
Ko d hoc rt ngn chu k th gian to ra nhy cm

Chu k th i gian c s ng c th tng ln hoc gim xung ty
thuc v mc quan tm n qun tr ri r v nhy cm . V d,
chu k thi gian c th c rt ngn nu m un h thng nhy cm
hn. Trong m t th trung gi tng i cao, ni gi c xu hung tng
cao r rt th qung thi gian c chn s ngn li gia tng nhy
cm cho h thng. V d, gi s rng c m t v th m ua c nm gi
ti thi im ph v 4 tun theo hng i ln vi mt lnh ct l c
t ngay bn di ngng thp ca hai tun trc. N u th trng hi
phc r rt v nh giao dch mun theo ui v th vi m t lnh ct
gn hn th c th s dng im chn m t tun.
Trong m t tnh hung bin giao dch, ni m t nh giao dch theo

xu hng ang do d v ch mun thm d phn ng th tnrng cho
n khi xut hin tn hiu xu hng quan trng, chu k thi gian c th
c ko di n 8 un. iu ny s hn ch kh nng nm v th ngn
hn v nhng tn hiu xu hng cha chn mui.
Quy tc 4 tun kt hp vi chu k

Phn tham kho truc ca chng ny ni n ngha ca chu k theo
244 John J. Murphy
thng trong cc thi truong hng ha. Chu ky giao dich 4 tuan, hay 20
ngy l chu ky quan trong nh hung den tat c cc thi truong. Dieu
ny gip gii thich vi sao khong chu ky then gian 4 tuan duoc chng
minh la hieu qud nhat. Hay luu y ring do l viec de cap den quy tic 1,
2 v 8 tuan. Nguyen tic song hi (harmonic) trong phn tich chu ky cho
ring moi chu ky deu co lien quan den nhiing chu ky can ke no (nhfing
chu ky dai hon hoc ngan hem) theo cap so 2.
Trong tho luan truc d ve dung trung binh di dng, chng ta

thay duqc cch thc m chu ky theo thng v sng hi gii thich tinh
pho bien ca duong trung binh di dng 5,10,20 v 40 ngy. Nhng chu
ky thi gian tuong tu c quy lut tuan ging nhau. Nhng so lieu hng
ngy duoc chuyen thnh hng tuan se l 1 ,2 ,4 v 8 tuan. Chinh vi the,
su dieu chinh quy tlc 4 tuan hieu qua nhat khi con so khi du (4) duoc
chia hoc nhn cho/vi 2. D l rt ngln thi gian, chng ta rt tu 4 xuong
2 tuan. Neu muori khong thi gian ngln hon na thi rut tu 2 xuong 1.
De keo di ra, chng ta tng tu 4 len 8. Vi phucmg php ny ket hop gi
v thi gian nen khng c ly do gi m nguyen ly sng hi lai khng
dng vai tr quan trong. Chien thut chia thng so tuan cho 2 de rt
ngln n, hoc nhn di de keo di n, l mot cch lm hop ly.
Quy tlc 4 tuan l mt he thong ph v don gian. He thong nguyen

thy c the duoc dieu chinh blng cch s dung mt chu ky thi gian
ngln hem - quy tlc 1 hoc 2 tuan - cho cc muc tieu thanh ly. Neu ngui
sir dung muon c dupe he thong nhay cm hon, chu ky 2 tuan c the
duqc s dung de nhn biet tin hieu gia nhp thi trung. Dy l nguyen
tlc duqc don gin ha. Quy tlc 4 tuan don gin nhung hieu qu. (Cc
gi do thj cho phep ban ve kenh gi tren v dui gi hien tai de pht
hien su ph v xu hung. Kenh gi c the duqc sir dung trong do thi
hng ngy, hng tuan hay hng thng. Xem hinh 9.11 v 9.12)
H nh 9.11 Knh gi 20 ngy (4 tun) c th c p dng cho gi tung lai

ca Tri phiu Chinh ph. Mt tn hiu mua s c pht ra kh gi ng ca
trn ung knh gi phi trri (hnh trn). Gi phi ng ca bn di
ng knh gi phi di o tn hiu.
H nh 9.12 Knh gi 4 thng c p dng cho ch so S P 500. Gi ct

ung knh gi pha trn vo u nm 1995 (hnh trn) pht ra tn hiu
mua, tin hiu c duy tr hiu qu trong 3 nm sau. Gi ng ca di
ng knh gi pha di s pht ra m t tn hiu bn.
246 John J. M urphy
TI U HA HAY KHNG?
n bn u tin ca cun sch ny c bao hm cc kt qu ca mt
chung trnh nghin cu m rng do Merrill Lynch thc hin vi vic
cng b hng lot cng trnh v k thut giao dch vi tnh ha p dng
cho th trng tng lai t 1978-1982. Vic th nghim nhiu loi
ng trung bnh di ng v thng s ph v knh gi dc thc hin
tm ra nhng s kt hp kh thi v tt nht trong tng th trng
tng lai. Cc nh nghin cu ca Merrill Lynch d to ra cc tp hp
khc nhau v gi tr ch bo ti u cho mi th trung.
a s cc gi th u cho php ti u ha cc h thng v chi

bo. Thay vi s dng ng trung bnh di ng nh nhau cho mi loi
th trung, bn c th dng my tnh d tm ung trung bnh ng, hay
s kt hp ca ung trung bnh di dng v tinh hiu qu ca chng
th trung trong qu kh. iu ny cng c th c thc hin cho
cc h thng ph v theo ngy v theo tun cng nh hu ht ton b
chi bo k thut uc nhc n trong cun sch ny. S ti uu ha cho
php cc thng so k thut tr nn thch nghi vi iu kin th trng
thay i.
Mt s ngui cho rng vic ti u ha h tr cho kt qu giao dch

ca h, nhung s khc th khng tn thnh quan im ny. Trng tm
ca cuc tranh lun tp trung vo cch thc ti uu ha d liu. Cc nh
nghin cu nhn mnh rng mt quy trnh ng l quy trnh s dng
chi mt phn d liu gi chn ra thng s tt nht, v phn khc
th nghim kt qu. Vic th nghim cc thng s ti u ha i vi d
liu gi thc t bo m rng cc kt qu cui cng s gn vi nhng
g m ngui ta c th tri nghim t giao dch thc tin.
Quyt nh ti u ha hay khng l vn mang tnh c nhn. Tuy

nhin, a s cc chng c tn hiu cho thy rng vic ti uu ha khng
phi l liu thuc cha bch bnh nh mt s ngi thng ngh. Thng
thung, ti hay khuyn cc nh giao dch - nhng ngui theo ui mt
s th trng - rng h nn th nghim s ti u ha. Ti sao Tri phiu
P hn tch k th u t th trng ti chnh 247
Chnh ph hay ng mc c li c ng trung binh di ng ging

nh ca ng cc v bng vi? Cc nh giao dch th trng chng khon
li i mt cu chuyn khc. Vic phi theo di hng ngn loi chng
khon di ngc li chc nng ca s ti u ha. Nu bn chuyn tm
vo mt nhm th trng th mi nn s dng s ti u ha. Cn nu
bn l mt nh giao dch tng hp trn nhiu th trng thi hy s dng
cng mt loi thng s k thut cho tt c th trng.
TM LC
Chng ti d trnh by nhiu bin th ca phng php ung trung
binh di ng. Hu ht cc nh phn tch k thut s dng s kt hp hai
ng trung binh di ng. Hai ung ny thung l nhng ung trung
bnh di dng gin don. Mc d ng trung binh di dng hm mfl
tr nn ph bin nhung vn khng c bng chng thc t minh chng
rng chng hot ng_hiu qu hon ng trung bnh gin n. S kt
hp cc ung trung binh di ng hng ngy thng dng nht trong th
trung tng lai l 1 v 9, 9 v 18, 5 v 20, v 10 v 40. Cc nh giao
dch chng khon ph thuc ch yu vo ung trung bnh 0 ngy (10
tun). i vi vic phn tch th trung chng khon di hn hcm, cc
ung trung bnh di ng hng tun ph bin l ung 30 v 40 tun
(200 ngy). Di bng Bollinger s dng ung trung binh 20 ngy v
20 tun. ng trung bnh 20 tun c th c chuyn i thnh th
hng ngy bng cch s dng dng trung bnh ng gi khc - ng
100 ngy. Cc h thng ph v knh gi vn hnh cc k hiu qu trong
nhng th trng c xu hng v duc s dng trn th hng ngy,
hng tun v hng thng.
NG TRUNG BNH DI NG THCH NG

Mt trong nhng vn thng gp vi ung trung bnh di ng
chnh l s la chn gia dng trung bnh di ng nhanh v chm.
Trong khi mt loi c th hot dng hiu qu trong th trung giao dch
c bin , th loi kia li c a dng cho th trng c xu hng.
248 Jo h n J. M u rp h y
Cu tr li cho s la chn hai ung trung bnh di ng ny chnh l

cch tip cn mang tinh cch tn c tn gi l ung trung bnh di
ng thch ng .
Trong cun sch ca minh c ta "Giao dch thng minh hn,

(Smarter Trading), Perry Kaufmen trinh by k thut ny. Tc
ca ung trung bnh di ng thch ng c t ng iu chnh vi
mc ting n ( dao ng) trn th trung. ng trung bnh di
ng thch ng di chuyn mt cch chm chp hn khi th trng c xu
hung di ngang, nhung sau vn ng nhanh dn khi th trng c xu
hung. iu ny gip trnh uc vn s dng ng trung binh
nhanh hn (v ri vo tinh trng li cua mt cch thng xuyn hn)
trong th trng giao dch theo bin , v s dng ung trung bnh
chm hn - ng trung bnh theo di th trng t khong cch rt xa
khi n ang giao dch theo xu hng.
Kaufman thc hin diu n bng cch thit k mt h s hiu sut

so snh hung gi vi mc dao ng. Khi h s hiu sut cao, hng
gi ln hn dao dng (trng ging ng trung bnh nhanh hon).
Khi h s thp, tinh dao ng cao hom tnh nh hng (trng ging
ng trung bnh chm hn). Bng cch kt hp cht ch h s hiu
sut, dung trung bnh di ng thch ng t ng diu chinh tc
thch hp vi th trng hin ti nht.
CC GII PHP THAY TH NG TRUNG BNH DI NG
Khng phi lc no ng trung bnh di ng cng hot ng. Chng

hot ng tt nht khi th trung trong giai on theo xu hung nhung
khng my hu ch khi th trng v hng v gi giao dch i ngang.
May mn l chng ta c mt loi chi bo khc hot ng tt hn ng
trung bnh di ng trong nhng bin giao dich v hiu ny. Chng
uc gi l chi bo dao ng (oscillator) v s uc gii thch trong
chng k tip.
CHNG 10
Cc ch bo dao ng v
quan im i lp
GII THIU
Trong chung ny, chng ta s tm hiu v mt gii php thay th cch

tip cn theo xu hng - c h i bo dao ng. Ch bo dao ng cc k
hu hiu trong th trng v hung khi gi dao ng trong di bng gi
nm ngang, tc bin giao dch, to nn mt tnh hung th trung,
nai phn ln cc h thng tun theo xu hung khng vn hnh hiu
qu. Ch bo dao dng to ra cho nh giao dch mt cng c gip h
thu uc li nhun trong nhng mi trng khng r xu hung v dao
dng i ngang.
Tuy nhin, gi tr ca chi bo dao ng khng chi gii hn trong

nhng bin giao dch nm ngang. c s dng trong s kt hp vi
cc d th gi ca giai on c xu hung, ch bo dao ng tr thnh
mt lin kt rt ng gi thng qua v ic bo dng cho nh giao dch
bit nhng im cc ca th trng ngn hn thng c gn vi tnh
trng th tiung m ua qu m c hoc bn qu mc. Ch bo dao ng cn
bo hiu Tng mt th trng ang dn mt i xung lung trc khi tnh
hung uc th hin r rng trong s bin ng gi. Chi bo dao
dng c th cho bit mt xu hng sp hon chinh hay cha bng s
phn k hin th trn d.
Chng ta s bt du bng nh ngha ch! bo dao dng l g v c s

nn tng cho vic thit k cng nh din gii chi bo . Sau , chng
ta s tho lun v ngha ca xung lngv cc hm d bo th
trung. Mt s k thut ch bo dao ng ph bin hn s uc trnh
by theo mc t n gin n phc tp. vn v s phn k cng
s c th hin. Chng ta s ni n gi tr ca phn tch chi bo dao
ng kt hp vi chu k th trung c bn. Cui cng, chng ta s tho
lun v cch thc s dng chi bo dao ng nh mt phn ca phn tch
k thut th trung tng qut.
S DNG C H BO DAO NG TRONG s K T H P VI

XU HNG
Chi bo dao ng ch l ch bo th cp vi n b tr cho phn tich xu
hng co bn. Bi chng ta ln lut xem xt cc dng chi bo dao ng
khc nhau nn tm quan trng ca vic giao dch theo chiu hng th
trung ni bt nht s c nhn mnh lin tc. c gi nn hiu rng
c nhng lc chi bo dao ng s lm vic hiu qu hn nhng lc
khc. V d, gn giai on u ca nhng bin ng quan trng, phn
tch ch bo dao ng khng hu hiu v s ua ra ch dn sai. Tuy
nhin, n giai on cui ca bin ng, ch bo dao dng tr nn cc
k hu ch. Chng ta s tip tc din gii nhng im ny sau. Cui
cng, s khng th c mt nghin cu hon chinh v im cc th
trng nu khng c quan im i lp (Contrary Opinion). Chng ta
s ni v vai tr ca l thuyt i lp v cch kt hp n vo phn tch
v giao dch th trng.
D ln gii chi bo dao ng
Mc d c nhiu cch thit k ch bo dao ng xung lng, nhung

mi cch din gii chi khc nhau mt cht. Hu nh tt c cc chi bo
dao ng u ging nhau. Chng uc dng ti y ca th gi v
ging nh mt di bng nm ngang, v c bn, di bng chi bo dao
ng l bng phng, d gi c th tng, gim hay i ngang. T\iy nhin,
inh v y ca chi bo dao ng trng vi inh v y ca th gi.
P h n tc h k th u t th tr n g t i c h n h 251
Mt s chi bo dao ng c mt trong im chia bin nm ngang

thnh hai phn bng nhau, phn nm trn v phn phia di. Ty vo
cng thc dc s dng, ng trung bnh nm gia d thung l
ng s 0. Mt s chi bo dao ng cng c ng bin trn v di
xp tO n 100.
Q uv tc din gii chung
Thng thung, khi chi bo dao ng dt mc cc i ti bin trn hoc

bin di, s bin ng gi hin ti c th ang di chuyn qu xa, qu
nhanh nhm c c s hiu chinh hoc cng c theo mt dng no .
Mt quy tc khc l nh giao dch nn mua khi ung chi bo dao ng
nm ng bin pha di ca di bng v bn ti ung bin pha
trn. im giao nhau ca ung trung bnh s to nn tn hiu mua
v bn. Chng ta s thy c cch thc p dng ca cc quy tc chung
ny khi lm vic vi nhng dng chi bo dao ng khc nhau.
Ba cng d n g qu an trng n h t ca chi bo dao ng
C ba tnh hung m chi bo dao dng hu ch nht. Bn s thy ba tinh

hung ny ph bin vi da s loi chi bo dao ng urc s dng.
1. Chi bo dao ng hu ch nht khi gi tr t im cc ti bin

trn hoc bin di ca n. Th trung urc nhn nh l trong
tnh trng mua qu mc nu n tin gn im cc trn v s trong
tnh trng bn qu mc nu n tin gn im cc di. iu ny
cnh bo s ko di qu mc v tnh d v ca xu hng.
2. S phn k gia ch bo dao ng v ng thi gi khi chi bo
dao ng ang mc cc i thung l mt cnh bo quan
trng.
3. Vic giao nhau vi ung s 0 (ng trung binh) c th to ra
tn hiu giao dch quan trng theo chiu hng ca th trung gi.
O LNG XUNG LNG
Khi nim xung lng l ng dng c bn nht trong phn tch chi bo
252 John J. M urphy
ao ng. X ung lng o lng tc thay i gi i ngc vi mc

gi thc t. X ung lng th trng c o bng cch ly chnh lch
gi lin tip trong m t khong thi gian c nh. dng m t ng
xung lng 0 ngy, ch cn ly gi ng ca gn nht tr cho gi ng
ca ca 10 ngy trc . G i tr m hay dong s c v ln gn
ng s 0. Cng thc tnh xung Ung c th hin nh sau:
M = V - Vx
Trong , V gi ng ca ca ngy gn nht v V x l gi ng ca

X ngy trc.
N u gi ng ca ngy gn nht ln hn gi ng ca 10 ngy trc

(hay ni cch khc gi tng), tc kt qu gi tr dung v ta v n
ln bn trn ng s 0. N u gi thp hon 10 ngy trc (gi gim ), th
n s c gi tr m v c v bn di ung so 0.
Hnh O.la ng xung lng 0 ngy dao ng gn ng so 0. Khi ch so

vt qua ng so 0 qu xa s l mua qu mc, cn gi tr di ng
qu xa s i bn qu mc. ng xung lng c th c kt hp vi xu
hng ca th trng.
H n h lO .lb S so snh gia ng xu n g lng 10 ngy v 4 0 ngy. ng

di hn nm bt s bin i c th trng chinh tt hn (hnh trn).
Trong khi ng xung lng 10 ngy l chu k thi gian uc s

dng ph bin hn v nhng l do ta s nhc n sau, nhng b c chu
k thi gian no cng s c s dng. (Xem hnh 10. la). Chu k thi
gian ngn hn (5 ngy chng hn) s to ra mt ng nhy cm hon
vi dao ng r rng l cao hn. Cn s lung ngy nhiu hn
(chng hn 40 ngy) s cho ta ng sun thng hn vi dao ng
thp hon. (Xem hnh lO.lb)
Xung lng o lng tc tng hoc gim

Chng ta hy cng tho lun mt cht v loi ch bo xung lng no
c do lng. ng cch v li chnh lch gi trong mt chu k
thi g ia n no , ngi v th ang xem xt n tc gia tng hoc
suy gim. Nu gi ang tng v dng xung lng tng nm trn ng
SC' 0, xu hng ang tng tc. Nu ng xung lng dc ln bt u
tri phng ra, tc mc tng mi ca gi ng ca ngy gn nht bng
vi mc tng ca 10 ngy tnic. Mc d gi vn ang tng, nhng tc
254 John . Murphv
gim. Khi ung xung lng bt u quay xung ng s 0, xu

hung tng vn c hiu lc nhung vi tc gim dn. Xu hng tng
d nh mt ng lung.
Khi ng xung lung ri xung bn di ng s 0, gi ng ca

10 ngy gn nht thp hn 10 ngy truc v xu hung gim ngn
hn xut hin (v ngu nhin ung trung bnh di dng 10 ngy cng
suy yu). Khi xung lng tip tc gim su hn na xung bn di
ng s 0, xu hng gim gia tng dng lung. Chi khi ung ny bt
u tng tr li thi nh phn thch mi bit rng xu hung gim ang
gim tc.
Cn phi nh mt iu t xung lung o lung s chnh lch gi ti

hai khong thi gian. ung ny tng, mc tng gi ng ca ca
ngy gn nht phi ln hn mc tng 10 ngy trc. Nu gi ch tng
mt lung tng uong 10 ngy truc, ug xung lng s hon ton
bng phng. Nu mue gi tng gn nht nh hon 10 ngy truc, ng
xung lung bt u nghing xung mc d gi vn dang tng. l
cch ung xung lng o lung s tng tc hay suy gim tc gia
tng hay st gim hin ti ca xu hung gi.
ung xung lung i trc ng thi gi

Do phung php dng m ung xung lung lc no cng i trc vn
ng gi. N i trc s gia tng hoc suy gim gi, ri sau li ri
xung trong khi xu hung hin ti vn ang din ra. Sau n li bt
u di chuyn theo hung ngc li khi gi bt u gim.
S giao nhau ca ng s 0 l mt tn hiu giao dch

th xung lng c mt ng s 0. Nhiu nh k thut s dng thi
im giao nhau vi ung s 0 to ra tin hiu mua v bn. Mt s
giao nhau i ln trn ung s 0 s to ra tn hiu mua, v xung dui
ung s 0 l tn hiu bn. 1\iy nhin, cn nhn mnh mt ln na rng
phn tch xu hung co bn lun uc uu tin hng u. Khng uc s
dng phn tch chi bo dao ng thc hin nhng giao dch nguc
H nh 10.2a ng x u hung trong th xu n g lng b ph v sm hn trn

thi gi. Gi tr ca c h bo xu n g iung nam cho n bin oi nhanh hn
th trng, khin no tr thnh m t ch bo dn ng.
H nh 10.2b M t s nh giao dich nhn nh s g ia o nhau bn trn dng s

0 n h l m t tin hiu m ua v xung bn dui ng so 0 l m t rin hiubn
(hnh trn). M t ng trung bnh di ng s gi p xc nhn s thay i x u
hng. ung xung lng s dng ng trc ng gi (xem m i tn.)
256 John J. M urphy
vi xu hng th trng ang thnh hnh. Cc v th mua nn uc a

ra ti im giao nhau trn ung s 0 nu xu hung th trng i ln.
Cc v th bn nn uc ua ra ti im giao nhau di ung s 0 chi
khi xu hung th trung i xung. (Xem hnh 10.2a v b).
S cn thit ca ng bin pha trn v pha di

Mt vn lin quan n'ng xung lng - s dc cp sau y
- l s tn ti ca ng bin pha trn v pha dui. Chng ta
tng nhn mnh tmc rng mt trong nhng gi tr then cht ca
phn tch ch bo dao ng l kh nng xc nh thi im th trng
ri vo vng cc. Nhung mc cao nh th no mi uc coi l qu cao
v mc thp nh th no th c coi l thp i vi ung xung lung?
Cch n gin nht nhn bit l kim tra bng mt. Hy kim tra qu
trnh hnh thnh ca ung xung lng trn th v v nhng ung
ngang lm bin trn v bin dui. Nhng ng ny s c iu chnh
H nh 10.3 K h i kim tra b n g m t, n h p h n tch k thut c th tm thy

tng bin xu n g lng bn trn v bn du i thch hp cho t ng lo i th trung
(Xem ng nm ngang).
Hnh 10.4 ng xung lng 13 tun trong th hng tun ca Tri phiu
Chnh ph. Cc mi tn nh du im chuyn i t nhng vng cc. ng
xung lng i hng trc ng gi ti nhng thi im bin i chinh
(im ,2 v 3).
ty thi im, c bit l sau nhng thay i xu hng quan trng.

Nhng l cch an gin nht v hiu qu nht nhn bit nhng
im cc. (Xem hnh 10.3 v 10.4).
O L NG T C B lN t h i n (RA TE O F C H A N G E - R O C )
o lng tc bin thin, chng ta tnh t sut gia gi ng ca

gn nht vi gi ca mt ngy xc nh no trong qu kh. thit
k ch bo dao ng tc bin thin ong 10 ngy, ta ly gi ng
ca gn nht chia cho gi ng ca 10 ngy tmc. Cng thc c th
hin nh sau:
Tc bin thin = 100 (V/Vx)
Trong , V l gi ng ca gn nht v Vx gi ng ca X ngy

trc.
Trong trng hp ny, ng 100 l ng trung bnh. N eu gi gn

nht cao hcm gi 10 ngy truc (gi ang tng), tc bin thin cho
kt qu trn 100. Neu gi gn nht thp hcm 10 ngy trc, tc s
thp hon 100. (i khi phn mm th s dng dng bin th ca
cng thc tnh ng xung lng v tc bin thin). Mc d k thut
thit k c th da dng nhung cch din gii thi vn nh vy.)
T H I T k m t c h bo dao n g b n g c c h dng
HAI NG TRUNG BNH NG
Trong Chuong 9, chng ta d tho lun rng hai ng trung bnh di

dng uc s dng to ra tn hiu mua v bn. S giao nhau ca
ng trung binh ngn hn ln trn hay xung di ung trung bnh
di hn hn ln lt c ghi nhn l tn hiu mua v bn. S kt hp
ung trung bnh di ng kp c th c s dng thit k th
chi bo k thut. iu ny c thc hin bng cch v chnh lch
gia hai ung trung bnh thnh mt biu thng k tn sut. Nhng
thanh th tn sut xut hin khi cng hay tr gi tr chnh lch vo
ung s 0 gia. Dng ch bo dao dng ny c ba cng dng:
1. Gip pht hin s phn k.

2. Gip nhn din nhng bin th ngn hn ca xu hng di hn,
khi ng trung bnh ngn hn di chuyn qu xa bn trn hoc
bn di ng trung binh di hon.
3. Xc nh s giao nhau ca hai umg trung binh di ng khi chi
bo dao ng ct dng s 0.
ng trung bnh ngn hn b phn chia bi ng di hn. Tuy

nhin, trong c hai trung hp, dng trung bnh ngn hn dao dng
quanh ung trung bnh di hon m trn thc t l ung s 0. Nu
ung trung bnh ngn hon nm trn ung di hn, chi bo dao ng
s l duong. Gi tr m biu th ng trung bnh ngn hn nm dui
ng di hn. (Xem hnh 10.5-10.7).
Khi hai ung trung bnh di ng cch nhau qu xa, s xut hin
im cc th trng th hin s tm ngng xu hng. (Xem hnh 10.6).
H nh 10.5 ng biu thng k tn su t o lng chnh lch gia hai

ucntg trung bnh. S giao nhau i rt trn v xung di ng s 0 to ra
tn hiu mua v b ijm i tn). Lu . rng biu thng k tn su t chuyn
hng trc khi c tn hiu tht s (hnh trn).
H nh 10.6 M t biu thng k tn sut o lng chnh lch gia ng

trung bnh O ngy v 50 ngy. Biu thong k tn su t un chuyn hung
trc khi ng s 0 b ct. Trvng m t xu hng tng, biu thng k tn
sut s tm c ngng h tr ti ng s 0 v quay u i ln ln na (mi
tn th ba).
260 John J. Murphy
Hnh 10.7 Biu thng k tn sut th hin chnh lch gia hai ng
trung bnh hng turi. Bi thng k tn sut chuyn theo hng ca xu
hng mi vi tun trc khi ng s 0 b ct trn biu thng k tn sut.
Hy u cch thc m nhng mc mua qu mc v bn qu mc dc nhn
bit mt cch d dng nh th no.
Thng thng xu hng vn tr hon n khi ng trung bnh ngn

hn di chuyn xung bn di ng di hn. Khi ng ngn hn
chm ng di hon, im trng yu s hin din. V d, trong mt xu
hng tng, ng ngn hn suy gim xung di ng trung bnh
di han, nhng c kh nng bt r li. y chnh l m t khu vc mua
l tng. N ging vi s th thch ng xu hng ng. Ty nhin,
nu ng trung bnh ngn hn bng xung bn di ng trung bnh
di hn th bo hiu s o chiu xu hung.
Trong mt xu hng gim, vic ng trung bnh ngn tin n

ng trung bnh di hn thng th hin mt khu vc bn l tng tr
phi ng di hn b ct ngang, trong ghi nhn tn hiu o chiu
xu hng. Bi vy, mi quan h gia hai ng trung bnh c th c
s dng khng ch vi t cch nh mt h tun theo xu hng hon ho,
m cn gip xc nh tnh trng ngn hn ca th trng mua v bn

qu m c.
CH S KNH GI HNG HA
Chng ta c th tiu chun ha mt ch bo dao ng bng cch phn
chia gi tr thnh cc uc s c nh. Khi v ch s knh gi hng ha
(CCI=Commodity Channel Index), Donald R. Lambert so snh ung
gi hin ti vi mt ng trung binh di ng trong qung thi gian
c chn - thng l 20 ngy. ng tiu chun ha gi tr ch bo
dao ng bng cch s dng mt uc s da trn lch trung bnh.
Kt qu, CC thay i tht thung theo bin c nh t +100 trn
ng i ln n -100 trn ung di xung. Lambert ngh v th mua
trong nhng th tning c gi tri trn +100. Th trng c CCI dui -
100 l tnh trng khuyn khch bn khng.
Hnh 10.8 Chi bo knh gi hng ha 20 ngy. ngha t chi bo ny l mua

khi gi tr nm trn +100 v bn khi gi tr nm di -100 nh trn hnh.
262 John J. Murphy
Hinh 10.9 Chi bo knh gi hng ha c s dng cho chi s chng khon
nh chi s ny v mivhi bo dao ng khc o lng im cc th trng.
Lu rang CCI chuyn hng trc gi ti moi inh v y. Chiu di mc
nh l 20 ngy.
Tuy nhin, dng nh da s ngui s dng th u s dng CCi

l chi bo dao dng mua/bn qu mc. Gi tr trn +100 l mua qu
mc v di - 100 l bn qu mc. Mc d ban u uc thit k cho
th trung hng ha, nhng chi bo knh gi hng ha vn uc s dng
giao dch chi s chng khon tung lai v quyn chn nh chi s
s&p 100 (OEX). Mc d 20 ngy l gi tri mc nh cho CCI, ngi
s dng vn c th bin i s lung iu chinh tnh nhy cm.
(Xem hnh 10.8 v 10.9).
C H S CNG TNG i (RSI)
Ch so cng d tng i (Relative Strenght Index - RSI) c xy

dng v pht trin bi J. Wealles Wilder (con) v xut hin trong cun
sch xut bn nm 1978 ca ng c ta Khi nim mi trvng cc h
thong giao dch k thut (New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems.)
y chng ta chi kho st nhng im chinh. c th nghin cu
thu o v vn ny, bn nn c tc phm gc ca Wilder. V ch

bo dao dng ny uc s dng rng ri trong cng ng cc nh giao
dch k thut nn chng ta s s dng n d gii thich hu ht nhng
nguyn tc phn tch chi bo dao ng.
Nh Wilder ch ra, mt trong hai van chinh trong phcmg php

xy dng ng xung lng (s dng s chnh lch gi) l s vn ng
tht thng xut hin do s thay i r rt khi gi gim. S gia tn(7 hay
suy gim 10 ngy trc (trong trung hp ng xung lng 10 ngy)
c th gy ra nhng bin i t ngt cho ung xung lng gi
hin ti ch th hin mt s thay i nh. S iu tit l cn thit c
th gim thiu nhng s lch lc ny. v n th hai l chng ta cn
mt bin khng i cho vic $0 snh. Cng thc ch $0 cng
tng i khng chi em li s iu tit cn thit, m cn gii quyt
vn th hai bng cch to ra bin khng di t 0 n 100.
Thut ng "cung ting i" b s dng sai v thung gy ra

nhm ln gia cc thut ng quen thuc trong phn tch th trung
chng khon. Cng tng i c ngha l mt ng ti sut so snh
hai thc th khc nhau. Ti sut ca mt loi chng khon hay nhm
chng khon cng nghip so vi ch s s&p OO l cch nh gi
cng titng i ca cc nhm chng khon hoc cng nghip khc
nhau trong s tng phn vi mt chun i snh. Chng ti s cho bn
thy mc hu ch ca vic phn tch t sut hay cng tng i.
Khi nim chi s cng tuong i ca Wilder khng thc s o
lng sc mnh tuong di gia hai thc th khc nhau, c ngha l tn
gi ca n b dt sai. Hiy nhin, chi s cung tuong i gii quyt
vn v s vn ng tht thng v s cn thit ca ung bin co
nh trn v di. Cng thc dc tnh nh sau:
RSI = 100- 100

1 +R S
_ trung binh mc ng ca tng X ngy
trung bnh mc ng ca gim ca X ngy
264 John J. Murphy
Cng thc s dng 14 ngy; 14 tun th uc dng trong th 14

tun. tnh uc gi tr trung bnh tng, ta tnh tng mc tng ca cc
phin tng gi trong 14 ngy ri em chia cho 14. tnh gi tr trung
bnh gim, ta cng tng mc gim ca cc phin gim gi v chia s
tng cho 14. Cung tucmg i (RS) uc xc nh bng cch chia
gi tr trung bnh tng cho trung binh gim. Gi tr cung tng i
duc s dng trong cng thc tnh ch s cung tuong i (RSI). s
lung ngy c th bin i bng cch thay di gi t r X.
Ban u Wilder s dng chu k thi gian 14 ngy. Thi gian cng
ngn, chi bo dao ng cng nhy cm v bin cng rng. Chi s
cung tuong i hot ng hiu qu khi s bin i tht thng ca
n chm im cc trn v cc dui. V l do , nu ngui s dng
dang giao dch trn c s rt ngn hn v mun chi bo dao dng ln
xung dt khot, chu k thi gian c th uc rt ngn. Thi gian di
Hnh 10.10 Chi bo cng lung oi 14 ngy dc nhn nh l mua qu

mc khi trn 70 v bn qu mc khi di 30. o th ny th hin ch s s&p
100 tnh trng bn qu mc trong thng 0 v mua qu mc trong thng 2.
Hnh 10.11 Bin ca ing ch s cng tng i c th c m

rng bng cch ru ngn thi gian. Lu rng ch so cng tung oi 7
ngy chm im cc bn ngoi thng xuyn hn so vi ng ch s cng
tng i 4 ngy. iu ny khin ch so cirng tng i 7 ngy c ch
cho nhng nh giao dch ngan hn.
hn s khin ch bo dao ng i trong bin nh v hp hon. in

ch bo dao ng 9 ngy ln hn 14 ngy. M c d khong cch 9 v
14 ngy thng c s dng, nhung mt s nh phn tch k thut li
thich s dng chu k thi gian ngn hn, chng hn 5 hoc 7 ngy,
gia tng tnh dao ng ca ng ch s cung tng i. s khc
li thch s dng 21 hay 28 ngy iu gim tn hiuch s cng
lng i. (X em hnh 10.10 v 0.1 ).
Din g chi s cng tng

C h s cng tng i c v theo t l t 0 n 100. Bin ng
ln trn 70 c xem l m ua qu m c, trong khi tnh trng bn qu m c
s c hiu khi chi s cng tng i xung di 30. Mc 80
thng tr thnh m c m ua qu m c trong th trng tng v mc 20
mc bn qu mc trong th trng gim.
266 John J. Murphy
Phn ky am, theo cch goi ca Wilder, thucmg xut hien khi chi so
cucmg d tucmg doi cao hon 70 hoc dum 30. Dinh phn ky am xuat
hien khi mt dinh ca chi so cucmg d tucmg di (tren 70) khng the
vuot khoi dinh tnroc d trong mt xu huong tng, theo sau l mt c
ph v di xuong ph v day trucrc d. Mt day phn ky am x u it hien
khi chi so cucmg d tucmg doi 6 trong xu huong gim (dui 30), khng
the thiet lp ngung thap moi sc tien len vuot khi dinh truoc d. (Xem
hinh 10.12a-b).
Su phn ky gia dirang chi so cung d tuong doi v dung gi, khi
chi so cung d tuong doi tren 70 hoc dui 30, l mt cnh bo quan
trong can ch y. Bn thn Wilder xem suphn ky l dc tinh c tinh chi
bo nhat ca chi so cung d tuong doi [Wilder, trang 70].
Hinh 10.12a Dy phn ky am trong ditcmg chi so cung d tucmg doi. Dy

chi so cucmg dp tuong doi th hai (diem 2) cao hon dy th nhat (diem 1) mc
du n thap hon 30 v gi van dang gim. C ph v huong len ca dinh chi
so cucmg dp tucmg doi (diem 3) bo hieu su xuat hien mt dy.
H nh 10.12b y phn k dng trong ng ch s cng tng oi.

chi s cng ting i th hai (im 2) thp hn y th nht (im l)
m c d n thp hn 30~v gi vn dahg tng. C p h v hng xu n g ca
inh ch s cuig tng di (im 3) bo hiu s xut hin m t nh.
Phn tch ng xu hng c p dng pht hin s thay di

trong xu hng ca ch s cng tng i. ng tr ;ng binh di
ng cng c th c s dng cho mc ch trn. (Xem h:nh 10.13).
Qua kinh nghim bn thn v ch bo dao ng ch so cung

tung i, ti c th ni rng, gi tr ln nht ca n nm phn k m
hay s phn k xut hin khi ch s cng tng oi trn 70 hoc
di 30. Hy cng lm sng t mt im quan trng khc trong cch
s dng ch bo dao ng. Bt k mt xu hng mnh m no; c th
l tng hay gim, cng thng to ra mt ch bo dao ng c bit
trc khi ko di qu xa. Trong nhng trng hp ny, th trng mua
qu mc hoc bn qu mc thng xut hin sm v c th dn n kh
nng thot khi xu hng sinh li. Trong mt xu hng tng mnh m,
th trng mua qu mc duy tr trong mt thi gian, ch bi v ch bo
dao ng di chuyn vo vng bn trn khng l do thanh ton
mt v th mua (hay thm ch l bn trong xu hng tng mnh.)
268 John J. Murphy
Hnh 10.13 ng xu hung hot ng rt hiu qu trn ng chi s cng

tng i. S ph v hai ng xu hng ch so cng tng i to
ra tn hiu mua v bn kp thi trn d th ny (xem mi tn).
S di chuyn u. tin vo vng mua qu mc hay bn qu mc

thng chi l mt cnh bo. Tin hiu cn phi ch l s dch chuycn
ln th hai ca chi bo dao ng vo vng nguy him. Neu s dch
chuyn ln th hai khng th xc nhn uc ngng cao hoc ngng
thp mi (hnh thnh hai nh hoc hai y ca ch bo dao ng), s
phn k c kh nng xy ra. Ti im , hnh ng phng th c th
uc thc hin bo ton v th hin ti. Nu ch bo dao ng i
chuyn theo hung ngc li, s ph v ngng cao hoc thp trc
s khng nh s phn k m.
Mc SO trong ch s cung tng i l gi tr trung bnh, v

thung l ngung h tr trong thi gian suy gim v ngung khng c
trong giai on hi phc. Mt s nh giao dch xem s giao nhau ca
ng ch s cung tucmg i ln trn hoc xung dui mc 50 nh
l tn hiu mua v bn tng ng.
s DNG NG 70 V 30 TO RA TN HIU
C hai ng nm ngang trn th ch bo dao ng ti mc 30 v 70.

Nh giao dch thng s dng nhng ng ny nhn bit tn hiu
mua v bn. Chng ta bit rng s dch chuyn xung di 30 cnh
bo tnh trng bn qu mc. Gi s nh giao dch cho rng mt th
rung sp chm y v h ang tm kim mt c hi mua. H s ch
i ch bo dao ng rt xung di 30. Mt s dng phn k hoc hai
y c th tin trin trong ch bo dao ng ti khu vc bn qu mc.
Neu ch bo dao ng ct ung 30 ti khu vc ln pha trn s c
nhiu nh giao dch xem nh mt s xc nhn rng xu hng ca ch
bo dao ng quay u tng. V vy, trong mt th trung mua qu
mc, s quay u giao nhau xung dui ng 70 thng c s dng
nh mt tn hiu bn. (Xem hnh 10.14)
Hnh 10.14 C h bo dao ng R SI trn th hng thng. Lu hai tin hiu

mua trong th trng bn qu m c nm 1974 v 994. nh mua qu mc ca
ng ch s cng tng i hot ng hiu qu trong vic nhn nh
cc nh quan trng.
270 John J. Murphy
CH BO D A N G STOCHASTICS (K% D )
Ch bo dao ng stochastic c ph bin bi Geogre Lane (Ch tch

Cng ty Investment Educators, Inc., Watseka, IL). Khi nim ny uc
da trn quan st rng khi gi tng, gi ng ca c xu hng tin st
bin bn trn ca mt bin d gi. Ngc li, trong mt xu hng gim,
gi ng ca c xu hng tin gn bin bn di ca mt bin gi.
Mi ch bo Stochastic s dng hai ung % K v %D. ng %D quan
trng hn v l ng sn sinh ra nhng tn tn hiu chnh.
Mc ch ca chi bo ny l xc nh c u l mc gi ng
ca mi nht trong bin gi ca qung thi gian chn. 14 l giai
don ph bin nht trong dng chi bo dao ng ny. xc nh c
ng K, l ung c tnh nhy cm cao hn trong hai ng, ta c
cng thc nh sau:
%K = 100 [(C-L14)/(H14 - L I4)]
Trong , c l gi ng ca gn nht, L14 l ngng thp nht trong

giai on 14, H 14 l ngung cao nht trong giai on 14 (14 y
c th l ngy, tun v thng).
Cng thc ny o lng trn c s phn trm t 0 n 100 vi gi

ng ca thuc tng bin gi trong qung thi gian chn. Mt
con s qu cao (trn 80) s dt gi ng ca gn inh bin , trong khi
con s thp (dui 20) t gn y bin .
ng th hai (%D) l ung trung bnh ba giai on ca ng

%K. Cng thc ny to ra mt phin bn dc gi l ng stochastic
nhanh. Bng cch ly mt gi tr trung binh ba giai on khc ca
dung %D, mt phin bn nhn hn uc gi l ng stochastic chm
s xut hin. a s nh giao dch s dng ng stochastic chm do
nhng tn hiung tin cy hn. (Chi bo dao ng chm to ra ba
ung. Chi bo dao ng Stochastic nhanh s dng hai dung u tin.
Ch bo dao ng Stochastic chm s dng hai ng sau).
Hnh 10.15 Mi tn i xung th hin hai tn hiubn xu hin khi ng %K

nhanh giao nhau xung bn di ng %D chm t mc trn 80. ng %K
giao ln trn ng %D nm di 20 t mt tn hiu mua (mi tn hng ln).
N hng cng thc ny to ra hai ng dao ng theo t l t 0 n

100. ng K l ng nhanh hn, trong khi ng D li chm hn.
Tn hiu chnh cn ch i s phn k gia ng D v ung gi ca
th trng c bn khi ng D rong khu vc mua qu mc hoc bn
qu mc. im cc trn v di nm ti 80 v 20. (X em hnh 10.15).
S phn k gim xut hin khi ng D trn 80 v hnh thnh hai

nh gim dn trong khi gi vn tip tc tng. Phn k tng xu hin
khi ng D di 20 v hnh thnh hai y tng trong khi gi tip tc
gim. Gi s tt c nhng yu t ny u hin din tn hiu mua v bn
xut hin khi ng K nhanh ct ng D chm.
C nhng cch khc trong vic s dng ng stochastic c chn

c nhng ta ch nhc n nhng im then cht hom. C ho d mc
cao hom v s phc tp c hin din th vic din gii vn nh vy. Mt
cnh bo xut hin khi ng % D t cc im v phn k so vi ng
thi gi. Tn hiu thc s xut hin khi ng D ct ng K nhanh.
272 John J. M urphy
H n h 10.16 S chuyn bin trung c h bo Stochastic 14 tun t m ic trn 80

v di 20 th hin kh nng d on chuyn bin c h in h trong th tn t n g
Tri p h iu Chinh ph. thi Stochastc-c th c d n g ch o khong th i gian
4 ngy, 14 tun hoc 4 thng.
H n h 10.17 S so snh gia c h i s cu ng t ng i v ug c h bo dao

ng Stochastic 14 tun. iig R S I dao ng t hti v h i n khi chm im
cc so vi ng ch bo dao ng Stochastic. Tin hiu tot n h t xu t hin kh
c hai c h so dao ng u trong khu vc m ua qu m c hoc bn qu mc.
Ch bo dao ng stochastic c th uc s dng trn th hng

tun v hng thng quan st bin di hn. N cn dc s dng
rt hiu qu trong th hng ngy cho cc giao dch ngn hn. (Xem
hnh 10.16)
C mt cch kt hp ng Stochastic hng ngy v hng tun l s

dng tin hiu hng tun xc nh hng pht trin ca th tmng v
tn hiu hng ngy xc nh thi im. Vic kt hp ung Stochastic
vi ch s cung tung i l mt tung hay. (Xem hnh 10.17).
NG % R CA LARRY W ILLIA M
umg %R ca Larry William duc da trn mt khi nim cn bn v

o lng mc dng ca mi nht trong bin gi ca mt s ngy cho
sn. Ly gi cao nht trong bin ca s ngy cho sn tr cho gi
ng ca ngy hm nay ri ly tng bin ca giai on d chia cho
hiu c uc. Nling khi nim dng trong din gii chi bo dao ng
cng uc p dng cho %R, trong yu t chnh l s phn k xut
H nh 10.18 Chi bo Larry YUiam %R c s dng nh nhng chi bo khc.

Con s trn 80 hoc di 20 xc nh nhng im cc th trng.
274 John J. Murphy
hin ti khu vc mua qu mc hoc bn qu mc. (Xem hnh 10.18).

Vi ta ly ngung cao nht tr i %R, chi bo dao ng Stochastic trng
ging nh b lt nguc. gii quyt vn d ny, cc gi th u
cung cp cch v mt phin bn %R o nguc.
La chn khong thi gian thch hp vi chu k
Chiu di ca chi bo dao ng c th tng thch vi chu k th

trung. Ta s dng khong thi gian bng V chiu di chu k. Khong
thi gian s dng ph bin l 5, 10 v 20 ngy da trn qung thi gian
trn lch l 14,28 v 56 ngy. Chi s cung tng i ca Wilder s
dng 14 ngy, l phn na ca 28 ngy. Trong chung trc, chng ta
tho lutumt s l do ti sao s 5, 10 v 20 tip tc xut hin bt
ng trong cng thc ng trung binh di ng v chi bo dao ng, v
th chng ta s khng nhc li na. Chi cn cp con s 28 ngy theo
lch (l 20 ngy giao dch).con s th hin chu k giao dch thng ph
bin v nhng con s khc c lin h mt cch hi ha n nhng chu
k thng khc. Tinh ph bin ca ung xung lung 10 ngy v chiu
di ca ch s cng tuong i 14 ngy phn ln bt ngun t chu
k giao dch 28 ngy v vic tnh V i gi tr ca chu k giao dch ph
bin . Chng ta s quay li ngha ca chu k trong Chng 14.
TM QUAN TR N G CA x u HNG
Trong chung ny, chng ta s tho lun v vic s dng ca chi bo
dao dng trong phn (ich th trng nhm xc nh cc iu kin mua
v bn qu m c ngn hn, v cnh bo nh giao dch v kh nng xy
ra s phirky. Chng ta khi ng vi ng xung lung v cng
d tho lun v phng php khc trong vic o lung tc bin thin
(ROC) bng cch s dng h s gi thay cho s chnh lch. Sau
chng ta cng chi ra cch so snh hai ng trung binh di ng
nh v cc im cc v giao im ngn hn. Cui cng, chng ta cng
xem xt chi s cng tung i v ch bo dao ng Stochastic
cng nh cc cch thc ty bin thch hp ca ch bo dao ng i vi
chu k.
Vic phn tch s phn k to ra cho chng ta gi tr ln nht ca ch

bo dao ng. Tuy nhin, bn c khng nn xem trng qu mc
ngha ca phn tch chu k m b qua hay xem nh phn tch c bn.
Nhng tn hiu mua trong chi bo dao ng c hiu qu nht trong xu
hung tng v tin hiu bn ca ch bo dao ng tt nht trong xu
hung gim. Phn tch th trung lun iun phi bt du bng vic xc
nh xu hng chung ca th trng. Nu xu hung tng, ta nn s dng
chin thut mua. Ch bo dao ng sau d c th c s dng xc
dinh thi im gia nhp th trng. Hy mua khi th trng tnh trng
bn qu mc trong xu hung tng. Hy bn khng khi th trung tnh
trng mua qu mc trong mt xu hung gim. Hoc bn nn mua khi
ch bo xung lung bng ln trn ung s 0 trong xu hng tng v
bn khi ung ny bng xung dui ung s 0 trong th trng gim.
Tm quan trng ca vic giao dch theo chiu humg ca xu hung

chnh khng Ih urc phng i qu mc. Vic xem trng qu mc chi
bo dao ng nguy him ch s phn k uc s dng nh mt
nguyn c bt u nhng giao dch di lp vi xu hung chung.
Hnh ng ny s gy km chi phi cng nh cng sc. Chi bo dao
ng chi l mt trong nhiu cng c v lun lun uc s dng h
tr ch khng phi thay the cho phn tch xu hung c bn.
KHI C H BO DAO NG HU HIU NHT
C nhng khong thi gian chi bo dao ng hu dng hon nhng lc

khc. Trong nhng giai on th trng hn lon, khi gi di chuyn i
ngang trong nhiu tun hoc nhiu thng, chi bo dao ng theo st
bin ng gi. inh v y ong th gi trng vi a s nh v y
ca ch bo dao ng. V u i ngang nn c gi ln chi bo dao ng
trng ging nhau. Tuy nhin, s ph v gi din ra v xu hng tng
hoc gim bt u ti mt im no d. Ch bo dao ng ri vo im
cc ngay ti thi im din ra ph v. Nu s ph v theo hung di ln,
chi bo dao ng s l mua qu mc. Biu hin bn qu mc thung i
lin vi s ph v i xung. Nh giao dch gp phi mt tnh th tin
thoi lung nan. Liu nh giao dch c nn mua ti thi im ph v
276 John J. Murphy
gi tng khi ch bo dao ng mc mua qu mc? V c nn bn ra

trong thi im ph v i xung trong th trng bn qu mc?
Trong nhng trng hp nh vy, nh giao dch nn pht l chi bo

dao ng v nm ly v th. L do l trong nhng thi k u ca mt
xu hng mi, sau mt c ph v quan trng, chi bo dao ng thung
t im cc rt nhanh v duy tr mt lc. Vic phn tich xu hng
c bn cn iic lu tm hn ch bo dao dng. Sau d, khi xu hung
bt du hon thin, ch bo dao ng s cn thit hn. (Chng ta s thy
trong Chunc; 13 rng sng th 5 v l song cui cng trong phn tch
sng i:.llitt thung c xc nhn bng s phn k ch bo dao ng
gim gi.) Nhiu bin dng tng gi nng ng c th b b l v nh
giao dch d nhn thy du hiu xu hung chnh nhng li quyt nh
ch i s dch chuyn ca chi bo dao ng vo tnh trng bn qu
mc trc khi quyt nh mua. Tm li, hy t lu tm n chi bo dao
dng nhng giai-on bin ng quan trng ban u, nhng nn ch.
nhiu hem n cc tin hiu ca chng khi bin ng gn hon thin.
NG TRUNG BNH NG H I T/PHN K (MACD)
Trong chng trc, chng ta cp nmt k thut ch bo dao

ng s dng hai ung trung binh di dng hm m v n s c ni
chi tit y. Chi bo ung trung binh di ng hi t/phn k hay gi
tt MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) uc pht trin
bi Gerald Appel. iu khin chi bo ny tr nn hu ch l n kt hp
mt s nguyn tc ca chi bo dao dng m chng ta tho lun vi
phng php giao i ung trung bnh di ng. Bn s ch thy hai
ng trn mn hnh my tnh mc d trn thc t c n ba ng
uc s dng trong tnh ton. ung nhanh (cn c gi l ung
MACD) l s chnh lch gia hai ung trung bnh di ng ca gi
ng ca hm m nhn (thng l 12 ngy hoc 26 ngy hoc nhng
tun gn nht). ng chm hn (cn uc gi l ung tn hiu)
thung l ng trung bnh hm m nhn chu k 9 ca ng MACD.
Ban u, Appel xut mt tp hp cc con s cho tin hiu mua v
Hnh 10.19a H thng ng trung bnh di ng hi t phn k th hin hai

ng. Mt tn /u xut hin khi ng MACD ct ng tn hiu chm hn.
Nhng mi tn th hin 5tin hiu giao dch trn th chi s Nasdaq Composite
Index.
nhng s khc cho tn hiu bn. Tuy nhin, a s cc nh giao dch li

s dng nhng gi tr mc nh l 12,26 v 9 trong tt c cc vi d. N
s bao gm cc gi tri hng ngy v hng tun.
Tin hiu mua v bn thc s xut hin khi hai ung giao nhau. Khi
ng MACD nhanh hn ct n trn ung thp hcm, chng ta s nhn
dc tin hiu mua. Khi ng nhanh hon ct xung dui ng chm
hom, la c tn hiu bn. Theo cch , MACD ging vi phircmg php
giao i ng trung bnh di ng. Tuy nhin, gi tr ca MACD dao
dng ln xung quanh ung s 0. l dim khin n ging mt chi
bo dao ng. Mt tnh trng mua qu mc xut hin khi hai ung
trn ng s 0 qu xa. Tnh trng bn qu mc xut hin khi hai dung
nm 'iiii ng s 0 qu xa. Tin hiu mua tt nht l khi gi nm di
ng s 0 (bn qu mc). Vic ct ung s 0 ln trn hoc xung
dui l cch to ra tn hiu mua v bn khc, tuong t k thut ng
xung lngs c d cp truc .
278 John J. Murphy
H inh 10.19b Ducmg MACD dao dng quanh duomg so 0, the hien tinh chat
cxta mot chi bo dao dong. Tin hieu mua tot nhat xuat hien ben du&i dudng so
0. Tin hieu ban tot nhat xuat hien lit ben Iren. Chysuphn ky am dien ra trong
thung 10 (xem nnii ten huarng xuong).
Su phn ky xy ra gia xu hung cua dung MACD v ducnig gi.

Su phn ky am, hay phn ky gim, ton tai khi dung MACD a tren
dung so 0 qua xa (mua qua mc) v b it dau suy yeu khi gi tiep tue
tng len. D thung l tin hieu cnh bo ve su xuat hien ciia dinh thj
trung. Su phn ky duong, hay phn ky tng, ton tai khi dung MACD
nm dui dung so 0 qu xa (bn qu mc) v bt dau tng truc dung
gi. D thung l tin hieu sm sa cho thy su xuat hien dy thi trung.
Nhng dung xu hung don duoc ve tren dung MACD se gip xc
djnh su thay di xu hung quan trong. (Xem hinh 10.19b.)
b i u d t h n g K f: t n sut m acd
Trong phn du chuong, chng toi d cho ban thy cch thiet ke mt
bieu do thng ke tn sut the hien chenh lech gia hai dung trung binh
di dng. Bng viec s dung cng mt ky thuat, hai dung MACD c
the bien di thnh mt bieu d thng ke tn sut MACD. Bieu d thng
k tn sut bao gm nhng thanh ng th hin s chnh lch gia hai

ng MACD. Biu d thng k tn sut cng c ng s 0. Khi cc
ng MACD phn dng (ng nhanh hn trn ung chm
hn), biu thng k tn sut s nm trn ng s 0 ca n. S giao
nhau ca th tn sut ln trn hoc xung di ng s 0 ca n
trng vi nhng im giao nhau thc ca MACD s to ra tin hiu mua
v bn.
Gi tr thc s ca biu thng k tn sut nm ch n xc nh

thi im s chnh lch gia hai ng ang gia tng hoc thu hp. Khi
biu thng k tn sut trn ng s 0 ca n (dng) nhng bt
u ri v pha ung s 0, xu hung tng ang suy yu. Nguc li, khi
biu thng k tn sut nm bn di ng s 0 ca n (m) v bt
u tin ln v pha ng s 0, xu hng gim ang nh mt xung
lng. Mc d khng c tn hiu mua hoc bn thc s no uc to ra
cho n khi bi thng k tn sut ct ung s 0, nhng s chuyn
H nh 10.20a Biu thng k tn sut MACD v chnh lch gia hai

ung MACD. Tin hiu c pht ra khi ng s 0 b ct. Lu rng biu
thng k tn sut chuyn hng sm hn so vi tin hiu giao nhau, to ra mt
s cnh bo cho nh giao dch.
280 John J. M urphy
hng ca biu thng k n sut vn s cung cp tn hiu cnh bo

sm rng xu hng hin ti ang nh mt xung lng. S chuyn
hng ca biu o thong k tn sut quay u hng v ng s
lun lun i tmc tn hiu giao nhau thc s. S chuyn hng ca biu
thng k tn sut c s dng nhn nh tn hiu sm sa ca
vic thot khi th trng t v th hin ti. Tuy nhin, rt mo him nu
s dng s chuyn hng ca biu hng k tn sut nh mt l do
khi ng v th mi ngc vi xu hng ni bt. (Xem hnh
10.20a).
KT h p t h h n g t u n v h n g n g y
Cng ging nh tt c cc ch bo k thut, tn hiu trong th hng

tun lun ng vai tr quan trng hn so vi tn hiu trong th hng
ngy. Cch kt hp chng mt cch tt nht l s dng tn hiu hng
H nh 10.20b Biu thng k tn sut M ACD hot ng hiu qu trong

th hng tun. Ti nh gia, biu thng k tn sut chuyn hng d i xung
O tun trc khi c tn hiu bn (mi tn hng xung). Ti hai im chuyn
hng ln, biu thng k tn sut tng 2 v 4 tun trc khi c tin hiti mua
(mi tn hng ln).
tun nhn bit chiu hng ca th Irung v tin hiu hng ngy
ty chinh cc im gia nhp v thot khi th trumg. Tn hiu hng
ngy chi xut hin khi n ha hp vi tn hiu hng tun. uc s dng
theo cch ny, tin hiu hng tun tr thnh b lc xu hung cho cc tn
hiu hng ngy. N gip hn ch vic s dng tn hiu hng ngy
giao dch ngc vi xu hung ph bin. Hai h thng giao nhau m
trong d nguyn tc ny c bit chnh xc l biu d thng k tn sut
MACD v chi bo dao dng Stochastic. (Xem hinh 10.20b)
NGUYN T C CA QUAN lM i lp trong th

TRNG TNG LAI
Phn tch chi bo dao ng l nghin cu v im cc th trng. Mt

trong nhng l thuyt o lng nhng im cc ca th trng ph bin
nht bt ngun t quan im i lp. Trong phn u cun sch, hai
trit l cn bn ca phn tch th trng d dc xc nh - phn tch c a
bn v phn tch k thut. Mc d uc lit vo nhm phn tch k
thut nhung quan im i lp thung c m t nh mt dng ca
phn tch tm l. Quan im i lp l c im quan trng th ba ca
phn tch th trng - tc l khia cnh tm l - bng cch xc nh mc
gia tng hoc suy gim lng ngi tham gia vo nhng th trng
ti chnh khc nhau.
Nguyn l ca quan im oi lp l khi dng vi mt iu g ,

nhn chung l phn ln chng ta ang sai tm. Chnh v th, pha i
ip trc tin s th xc nh s ng ang lm gi v sau s hnh
dng theo hng ngc li.
Humphrey B. Neil d ch trng n quan im i lp khi gii thiu

l thuyt ca mnh trong cun sch pht hnh nm 19S4 c ta d The
Art o f Contraiy Thinking" (Ngh thut t duy i nghich). Mi nm
sau, tc l vo nm 1964, James H. Sibbet bt u p dng nguyn l
ca Neil vo lnh vc giao dch hng ha tng lai bng cch thnh lp
Cng ty Dch v T van Market Vane, bao gm cc d liu Bullish
Consensus (cuc thm d kin/kho st ca chuyn gia phn
282 John J. Murphy
tch/chuyn gia t vn, thung dc th hin nh mt t l phn trm

lung kin ca ngui tham gia giao dch - ND) (Market Vane, P.O.
Box 90490, Pasadena, CA 91109). C mi tun, mt kt qu kho st
uc thu thp xc nh uc s gia tng v suy gim s chuyn gia
giao dch th trng tung la i. Mc ch ca cuc kho st l xc nh
s lung kin th trung thnh mt tp hp cc con s c th uc
phn tch v $ dng cho qu trnh d on th trng. im c bn ca
cch tip cn ny l da s nh giao dch tuong lai u b tc dng bi
cc dch v t vn th trng. Bng cch quan st quan im ca nhng
ngi chuyn nghip tham gia th trung, ta c th xc nh chnh xc
c hnh vi ca di a s ngi giao dch.
Mt dch v cung cp ch bo tm l th trng khc l chi s ng

thun quan im th trng tng (Consensus Index o f Bullish Market
Opinion), uc thc hin bi Consensus National Commodity Futures
Weekly (Consensus,-Inc., 1735 McGee Street, Kansas City, MO 64108).
Nhng s liu ny uc cng b vo th Su hng tun v xem mc
75% l mua qu mc v 25% l bn qu mc.
Din gii d liu Bullish Consensus

a s cc nh giao dch p dng phng php phn tch d liu tun
kh n gin. Nu con s ny trn 75%, th trng c xem l mua
qu mc v c ngha l ang tin gn mt dinh. Mt con s dui 25%
c din gii l s cnh bo v tnh trng bn qu mc v gia tng kh
nng tin gn mt y th trng.
Q uan im di lp do lng cng mua hoc bn cn li
Hy xem xt tnh hung ca mt nh u t c nhn. Gi s nh u t

c uc thng tin v tin rng th trng v c bn l dch chuyn theo
hng i ln. Th trung cng c d on l tng gi th nh giao
dch cng tch cc tip cn th trung. Tuy nhin, mt khi tin bc ca
nh u c c nhn uc vo mt th trng c th, anh ta hoc c
ta ang tinh trng mua qu mc - ngha l khng c thm ngun ti
chnh no uc thm vo th trng.
M rng v d sang tt c nhng ngui tham gia th trung, nu 80-

90% nh giao dch th trung u u c gi ln trong mt th trung,
iu ny c ngha l h u nm v th. Ai l ngi cn li thc hin
ng thi mua v y th trumg i ln? y l mt trong nhng mu
cht thu hiu l thuyt quan im i lp. Nu s lung kin p
o ca cc nh giao dch th trng v mt pha thi p lc mua hoc
bn cn li khng d tip tc xu hng hin ti.
Q u an im di l p n h gi c n h u c m n h v yu
Mt c im th hai ca trit l ny l kh nng so snh nh u c

c nng lc ti chnh mnh so vi nh u c c nng lc ti chnh yu.
Giao dch tng lai l mt tr chi 5 n 5 thua. i vi mt v th mua
s c mt v th bn. Nu 80% nh giao dch u v th mua, thi 20%
cn li (ngi nm gi v th bn) phi huy ng d vn thu thp v
th mua ca 80% kia. Chnh vi th, ngi bn phi nm gi v th nhiu
hn ngi mua. (Trong trng hp ny l 4 so vi 1).
iu ny cn c ngha rng ngi mua phi uc trang b vn tt

v uc xem l nh u c c nng lc ti chnh mnh. 80% ngi ang
nm nhng v th nh hn nhiu, ue xem th yu b buc phi
thanh ton nhng v th mua ti bt k mt im chuyn i gi t
ngt no.
M t s c im k h c ca d liu B ullish C onsensus
Hy cng xem xt mt vi im b sung cn luu khi s dng d liu

ny. Tiu chun hay im cn bng l 55%. iu ny tnh n khuynh
hng tng mt b phn cng dng. im cc trn c xem l 90%
v im cc dui l 20%. Mt ln na, cc con s tng nh tnh n
mt khuynh hng tng.
V th di lp thng c th c cn nhc khi Bullish Consensus

trn 90% hoc di 20%. Cc con s trn 75% hoc dui 25% cng
uc xem l vng cnh bo v cho bit s chuyn hung ang gn.
Tuy nhin, nh giao dch c khuyn l nn ch i s thay i xu
284 John J. Murphy
hng d liu trc khi c hnh ng ngc li vi xu hng. S thay

i trong hung pht trin ca Bullish Consensus, c bit l nu t
mt trong nhng khu vc nguy him, nn c theo di st sao.
T m q u a n tr n g ca s lng hp ng ch a t t to n (th tr n g
tng lai)
S lng hp ng chua tt ton ng vai tr quan trng trong vic $

dng d liu Bullish Consensus. Nhn chung, s lng hp ng cha
tt ton cng cao, c hi sinh li ca v th i lp cng cao. Tby nhin,
khng nn nm v th i lp khi s lung hp ng chua tt ton vn
ang tng. S gia tng s lung hp ng chua tt ton lin tc lm
tng kh nng tip tc ca xu hng hin ti. Hy i s lung hp
ng chua tt ton bt u gim tng hoc rt xung trc khi c hnh
ng.
Hy nghin cu bo co COT nhm bo dm rng cc nh u t

phng h ri ro nm gi t hn 50% s lung hp ng chua tt ton.
Quan im i lp s hiu qu hn khi s lung hp ng chua tt ton
uc nm gi bi nhng nh u c yu th. Khng nn giao dch
nguc vi hung quan tm ca cc nh u t phng h ri ro.
Q u an s t p h n ng th tr n g di vi thng tin c a b n
Hy quan st tht cn k phn ng th trng i vi thng tin c bn.

Vic gi khng th phn ng vi thng tin tng gi trong mt khu vc
mua qu mc l cnh bo r rng v s chuyn hng sp xy ra.
Nhng thng tin bt li u tin cng y gi i theo hung khc
mt cch nhanh chng. Ni mt cch tiiong ng, vic gi khng th
phn ng vi thng tin gim trong khu vc bn qu mc (di 25%) c
th duc xem nh cnh bo rng tt c nhng tin tc xu duc phn
nh qua mc gi thp hin ti. Bt k mt thng tin tng gi no cng
c th y gi tng ln.
K et hp q u a n im i lp vi nhng cng c k th u t k h c
Thng thung, hy giao dch theo xu hung ca cc s liu ng thun

cho n khi chm im cc - l lc s liu dng thun cho thy tn hiu
thay i xu hng. Hin nhin l cc cng c k thut chun mc c
th uc s dng xc nh s chuyn hng th trung ti nhng thi
im quyt nh. S ph v ngng h tr hay khng c, ung xu
hng, hay ung trung bnh di dng c th uc s dng xc nhn
rng xu hng ang chuyn bin. S phn k trn d th chi bo dao
dng c bit hu ch khi cc con s Bullish Consensus th hin mua
qu mc hay bn qu mc.
C CH S TM L NH U TU
Mi cui tun, Barron's a vo Market Laboratory mt tp hp cc
con s di tiu Cc ch s tm l nh u tu (Investor Sentiment
Readings). Bn dng kt qu khc nhau c s dng o lng mc
gia tng hoc suy gim trong th trng chng khon. Con s trong
tun gn nht v giai on hai hoc ba tun truc c s dng d so
snh. y l v d ngu nhin v s liu tun cui cng. Hy nh rng
nhng con s ny l chi bo i lp. Th trng tng qu nhiu th
khng tt, v th trng gim qu nhiu th khng xu.
Chi s nh gi tnh hnh ca nh u tu
Tng 48%
Gim 27
Hiu chinh 24
Chi bo ng thun
Quan dim tng gi 77%
Ch s AAII
(American Association of
Individual Investors 625 N.
Michigan Ave. Chicago, IL 60611)
286 John J. Murphy
Tng 53%
Gim 13
Trung lp 34
Market Vane
Bullish Consensus 66%
CC D LIU NH G I TN H HNH CA NH AU t
Hng tun, Investor Intelligence (30 Church Street, New Rochelle, NY

10801) thc hin kho st kin t cc chuyn gia t vn u t v
cung cp ba d liu - t l phn trm cc chuyn gia t vn u t i
theo th tmng u c gi ln, t l phn trm khuyn cc chuyn gia
t vn u t i theo th trng u co gi xungv t l phn trm nh
giao dch mong i s hiu chnh ca th trung. Con s tng gi mc
trn 55% s cnh bo v s ac quan thi qu v c kh nng m ang tnh
tiu cc i vi th trng. Con s gim gi di mc 35% phn nh
s bi quan thi qu v mang tnh tch cc oi vi th trng. Con s hiu
chinh th hin slung nh giao dch theo th trng u c gi ln
nhung ch i s suy yu ngn hn
Investor Intelligence cng cng b s liu hng tun phc v vic

o lng s c phiu chng khon ang nm trn ung trung bnh di
ng 10 tun v 30 tun. Nhng con s ny cng uc p dng cho l
thuyt quan im i lp. Con s trn 70% chng t th trng chng
khon mua qu mc. Con s dui 30% l th tumg bn qu mc. s
liu 10 tun c ch trong vic o lung lnh bn trong thi im chuyn
hng th trung cp trung, s liu 30 tun th hu dng hon cho vic
nh gi s chuyn hung ca th trung chinh. Tn hiu thc ca kh
nng thay i xu hung s din ra khi con s ny tng nguc ln trn
30 hoc gim ngc xung dui 70.
CHNG 11
V th im v hnh
GII TH IU
K thut u tin trong v i c xy dng th u c c c nh g ia o d ch trn

th trng chng khon s dng v o th k trc l th im v hnh.
N gi ta ch o rng ci tn "im v hnh" c ngun g c xut x t cun
sch kinh in ca V ictor D ev illers c xut bn v o nm 1933 v i
ta P h n g p h p i m v h n h tro n g v i c d o n b i n n g g i
c h n g kh o n " (T h e P o in t a n d F ig u re M e th o d o f A n tic ip a tin g S to c k
P ric e M o v e m en ts). Trong nhng nm qua, phng php ny c thm
nhiu tn g i khc nhau. Vo thp nhin 80 -9 0 c a th k 19, n uc
bit n v i tn g i phng php nh du (b o o k m ethod). C i tn
ny cng u c C harles D o w s dng trong bi v it trn t T h e W all
S tree t J o u r n a l s ra ngy 2 0 thng 7 nm 1901.
D ow c h i rarng phng php nh s u c s dng trong k hong

15 nm k t nm 1986. Tn g i th hnh c s dng t
nhng nm 2 0 ca th k 2 0 ch o n nm 1933 khi " th im v
hnh" u c chnh thc chp nhn nh l tn g i ca k thut th eo di
bin dng th trung. R .D W y ck o ff c n g c n g b m t s c n g trinh
nghin cu v phung php im v hnh v o du nhng nm 3 0 ca
th k 20.
288 John J. Murphy
Vo nm 1986, t The Wall Street Journal bt dau dng nhng thng

tin ve do thi thanh, gom gi cao nhat, thp nhat v gi dong cra ca
chng khon. Nhu vay, co le phuong phap do thi diem v hinh da xuat
hien truoc do thi thanh it nhat 10 nm.
Chng ta se tiep can phuong php do thi diem v hinh qua hai budc.
Dau tien chng ta se xem xet phuong php dua tren nhng bien dng
gi trong ngy. Sau d toi se chi cho cc ban thay cch tiep can do thj
diem v hinh don gin hon, duoc ve tu nhng mc gi cao nhat v thp
nhat ca mot thi trung bat ky.
D TH I BllW V H iN H TRO N G SU D l SNH VI D T H I

THANH
Hy bt dau vdi mot vi diem khac biet co bn gia hai loai do thi ny
v xem qua mot vi vi du.
Do th i diem v hinh l viec nghien cu s u bien dng gi thuan ty.

Co nghla l chng ta khng s dung yeu to thi gian khi ve dudng gi.
Nguoc lai, d thi thanh lai ket hop c yeu to gi v thi gian. Do cch
ihuc thiet kedo thj thanh, true tung l true the hien pham vi gi v true
honh the hien pham vi thi gian. Vi du, tren do thi ngy, mi mot bien
dng gi ca ngy ke tiep lan luot duoc bieu thj bng mot doan hoc
mt thanh tren true honh theo hung dan ve ben phi. Dieu ny van
dien ra cho d gi dng yen hoc chi thay doi rat it trong ngy d. Phi
c gi d duoc ve vo doan ke tiep. Do thj diem v hinh chi ghi nhan
nhung thay doi ve gi. Trong thi gian thj trung si dng, mt luong
dng ke do thj c the duoc yeu cau. Trong dieu kien thj trung am dam,
so luong do thj thung rat it hoc tham chi l khng c.
.Wt diem khc biet quan trong na l cch xti ly khoi luong giao
dich. D thj thanh ghi lai nhng thanh kh6i luong giao djeh ben dui
bien dng gi ca ngy d. Do thj diem v hinh b qua cc con so the
hien khoi luong giao djeh, nhu l mt thuc the rieng biet. Nhu l mt
thuc the rieng biet l mt cum t rat quan trong. Mc d con so the
hin khi lung giao dch khng dc ghi nhn trn th im v

hnh, nhung khng c ngha rng khi lung giao dch hay hot ng
giao dch hon ton b thua l. Nguc li, v th im v hnh ghi
nhn tt c cc thay i v gi nn khi lng giao dch nhiu hon hay
t han u uc phn nh trong lng bin i v gi uc ghi nhn
trn th. Do khi lng giao dch l mt trong nhng yu t quan
trng dng xc nh vng chc ca ngung khng c v ngung
h tr, d th im v hnh uc s dng ph bin hon trong vic xc
nh u l mc gi m phn ln cc hot ng giao dch din ra v
du l nhng s liu khng c v h tr quan trng nm ti u.
Hnh 11.1 so snh th thanh v d th im v hnh trong cng

mt khong thi gian. mt khia cnh, cc th ny trng c v
ging nhau, nhung mt kha cnh khc, chng li hoi khc bit. C
th thy gi v xu hng chung u uc th hin trn hai o th, nhung
phuong php ghi nhn g i li hon ton khc nhau. Hy nhn vo hnh
H n h 11.1 S s o s n h th th a n h h n g n g y c a C h i s o s&p 5 0 0 (b n tri)

v d th d m v h n h (b n p h i) tr o n g c n g m t k h o n g th i g ia n . th i m
v h n h d n g n h n g c t X t h h i n g i t n g v CI o c h o 1i g i m .
290 John J. Murphy
Hint) 11.2 Tin hieu mua hien ra khi mot cot x vuat len Iren dinh ca cot x truac
d (xem nhim g m ui ten di len). Tin hieu ban hien ra khi m ot cot o rat xuong
duai cot o truac dd~(xem m ui ten di xu6ng). Nhng tin hieu tren do thi diem va
hinh hien len chinh xc hem.
11.2 gom nhung cot x v o xen ke nhau. Nhng cot x the hien mc gi
tng, cot o the hien mc gi gim. Moi lan cot x dich chuyen len tren
cot x tru6c do mot o, su ph va theo xu huang gi tng se xut hien.
(Xem mui ten tren hinh 11.2)
Mot cch tuong ung, khi cot o rori xuong duoi cot o truac do mot o,
surph va gi gim sS xuat hien. Hy luu y rng nhung diem ph va ny
hien len r rng hon so vdi nhung diem ph va tren do thi thanh. DT
nhien, nhung diem ph va ny c the duqc sir dung nhu tin hieu mua
hoc ban. Chng ta se ni nhieu hon ve tin hieu mua v bn d nhng
phan sau. Tuy nhien, nhung do thi tren chng minh duqc mot trong
nhng uu diem ca do thi diem v hinh la su chinh xc v de dang trong
cch nhan dien cc tin hieu ca xu hung.
H nh 11.3 v 11.4 cho thy m t u im ln khc ca th im

v hnh - tnh linh hot. Trong khi c ba th im v hnh u
bao gm cng m t ng thi gi, chng ta cng c th khin cho chng
trng tht khc nhau cho nhng m c ch khc nhau. M t cch thay
i th im v hnh lm a dng ha tiu chi o chiu (t o
chiu 3 n o chiu 5 ). s cn thit cho m t s o chiu cng
ln th nhy ca th cng t.
Cch th hai thay i th l thay i kch thc . H nh 2 s

ng kch thc 5 im. H nh 11.3 chuyn kch thuc t 5 ln 10
im. S lng ct gim l 44 trong th 5x3 hnh 11.2 xung cn 16
ct trong hnh 11.3. Bng vic s dng kch c ln hn trong hnh
11.3, ch c m t vi tn hiu xut hin. iu cho php nh tu tp
trung vo xu hng th trng chnh bng vic b qua tt c cc tn hiu
bn ngn hn khi th gim nhy cm.
Trong hnh 11.4, kch thc gim t 5 xung 3. N h ,

nhy ca th tng ln. V y ti sao li c ngi m un s dng n?
Hnh 11.3 S gia tng kch thiic t 5 ln 10 im khin th t nhy hon

v tn hiu xut hin hn. iu ny thch hp cho nh u t di hn.
H i n h 1 1 .4 S ir g ia m k ic k th u a c o x u o n g con 3 die m se tq o ra n h ie u tin h ie u

han. D a n g n a y p h h a p v& i ch ie n th u a t g ia o d ic h ng an han. D ie m d a t le n h
dieng ba n nm n g a y d ir& i Cot g a n n h t (Xem S1-S5).
Boi vi n6 thich hop vri chien thut giao dich ngn han hon. Hy so
sanh dot phuc hoi gan nhat tu mc 920 len 1060 trong c ba do thi. Do
thi 10x3 (hinh 11.3) cho thay cot cuoi cng nhu la mot chuoi dau x rna
khng co mot cot o nao. Do thj 5x3 (hinh 11.2) cho thay tin hieu tng
cuoi cng trong 5 cot - 3 cot x v 2 cot o. Do thj 3x3 (hinh 11.4) day
tin hieu tng cuoi cng ien 11 cot - 6 cot x va 5 cot o. Khi so Ian hieu
chinh gia tng (bng cch gia tang so luong cot o), tin hieu mua lap lai
nhieu hon bao hieu diem gia nhap thi truong hoac gia tang vi the co 16i.
N6 cung cho phep nh giao dich nng diem dat lenh dng ban ben dudi
nhng c6t o gan nhat. Dieu quan trong la ban co the thay doi cch nhin
nhan do thj diem va hinh de di&u chinh tinh nhay cam ca no sao cho
ph hop voi nhu cau ca minh.
V6 B IK U 6 D I ^ M V H IN H T R O N G N G A Y
Chng toi da nhan manh rng do thj trong ngay la ky thuat dau tien
duoc cc nh s dung do thj ap dung. Ky thuat nay ban dau duoc s
dng theo di bin ng trn th trng chng khon vi mc ch

nm gi vlu li trn giy tng im dch chuyn gi chng khon
ang c xem xt. C v nhu hot ng tch ly (mua vo) v phn
phi (bn ra) c th c pht hin ra mt cch tt hn theo cch thc
ny. Ch ton b cc con s c s dng. Mi c gn vi gi tr
mt im v mi im dch chuyn theo c hai hng u c ghi
nhn i. C c phn s phn ln u b b qua. Khi k thut ny uc
p dng cho cc th trung hng ha, gi tr ca phi c iu chnh
thch hp vi mi loi th trng hng ha khc nhau. Hy cng
thit k th hng ngy bng cch s dng cc d liu gi thc th.
Nhng con s di y m t 9 ngy giao dch thc t rong mt hp

ng tucmg lai c gi tr tnh bng ng frng Thy S. Kch thc
l 5 im. Do , mi vn ng tin 5 im v c ha hng u c
v li. Chng ta s bt u vi mt th o chiu .
4/29 4875 48 8 0 48 6 0 4 8 6 48*0 4860 4 t S
5/2 4 8 7 0 * 6 6 0 4865 4655 4460 48S5 4860 4&S5 4860 4 S 46S 4 5
5 /1 4 9 7 0 4 0 6 4 8 7 0 4660 46 5 4 M 0 4*70 466S
S/4 4 $ ft 4 M 0 46 9 0 4885 490 467$
5/5 4905 49 0 0 490S 4 9 0 0 4905
/6 4885 4900 4890 4930 4920 <930 4925 4930 4925
5n 4950 4925 4 9 3 0 4925 4 9 3 0 4925 493s 4 9 2 J 4930 4925 9S 4930 4940 4 9 )
5/10 494049154920 490S4925 92049304925493549304*40495 4940

5/11 4935 49M) 4945 49}0 4 9 5 4940 4935 4945 4940 495 4960 4965 4955 4960 4955 4965 4960 4970
Hnh 1 1 .5a cho thy cch thc h hin nhng con s trn th.
Hy bt u t bn tri ca th. u tin, th uc chia d phn
nh s gia tng 5 im mi .
Ct 1: t mt du chm ti 4 8 75 . V i s k tip - 4880 - cao hn nn

nh du X vo 4880.
Ct 2: S k tip l 4860. Dch chuyn 1 ct sang phi, chuyn xung

1 v in o n 4860.
294 John J. Murphy
Hinh 11.5a Do thj diem v hinh Sxi ca mot harp dong cd gia tri tinh bang
dng mc Due duoc the hien trong hinh tren day. Nhimg 6 duoc to den bieu thj
SUket thc mot phien giao dich. Hinh 11.5b the hien cng mt dir lieu gi voi
sirdao chieu 3 . H yJuuyden.su rut gon. Hinh J1.5c the hien sudo chieu
5 6.
Cot 3: So ke tiep l 4865. Djch chuyen 1 cot sang phi, chuyen len 1
6 v dt mt dau x tai 6 486S. Dng tai day. Vy ban chi dnh
mt dau x trong cot 3 vi gi chi tng 1 . Tren mt d th{ do
chieu 1 , trong moi cot phi c it nhat 2 duoc dien. Luu y ring
so ke tiep l 4850, tue l phi dien o den so do. Vy c can sang
cot ke tiep de dnh dau o l cot gim hay khng? Cu tr li l
khng boi vi chi c duy nhat 1 dau x tren ct 3. Vi vy, trong ct
c mt dau x (ct 3) dien tiep o den so 4850.
Ct 4: So ke tiep l 4860. Tren ct ke tiep, nhy len 1 dnh x den so
4860.
Ct 5: So ke tiep l 4855. Vi gi gim nen ta di chuyen sang ct ke tiep,
di xuong 1 v dien o vo 4860. Ch y ring dy l mc gi cuoi
cng trong ngy nen ta dien 1 ln nua.
Ct 6: So dau tien ca ngy 2/5 l 4870. Vi the, ban chi dien mt dau
o trn ct 5. Bn cn phi c t nht hai du trong mi ct. Do

, bn phi in X n 4870 ( bi v gi ang tng). Nhng hy
ch rng mc gi ng ca ca ngy hm trc b t en. iu
ny nhm gip bn theo di thi gian. Bng cch t en mc gi
ng ca mi ngy, bn s thy rng vic theo di hot ng
giao dch ca mi ngy ring bit tr nn d dng hon.
C tip tc theo di phn cn li d hiu r hn quy trnh dng

th. Hy ch rng th ny c mt s ct hin hu c du X v o.
Trng thi ny s pht trin thnh th o chiu mt im v bt
ngun t yu cu cn c t nht 2 trong mi ct. C nhng bt ng
v vic s dng c c du X v o trong mt ct trong cng dng nhng
ngui theo ch ngha thun ty. Tuy nhin, kinh nghim cho thy
phng php v d liu gi ny gip vic theo di lnh giao dch d
dng hn.
Hnh 11. 5b c cng d liu vi hnh 11 .Sa v chuyn thnh th

o chiu 3 . Ch rng th ny uc rt gn v rt nhiu d
liu b lc b. Hnh 11.5c th hin mt s o chiu 5 . C ba tiu
chun o chiu thng uc s dng - o chiu 1,3 v 5 . o chiu
Hnh I1.5b Hnh ll.Sc

296 John J. Murphy
1 6 dupe sir dung trong nhfing hoat dng rat ngn han, trong khi do
chieu 3 6 lai duoc sir dung trong nhfing hoat dong trung han. Do duoc
nen lai nen dao chieu 5 o dupe s dung trong viec nghien ciru nhfing xu
huong di han hon. Chung ta nen di theo mot trinh tu vi viec bt dau
vcri do thi do chieu 1 diem dupe the hien dui dy. Do chieu 3 hay 5
6 se dupe xy dung ngay sau do tren do thi dau tien. Vdi nhfing ly do
ro rang, mot do thi do chieu 1 diem khong the dupe thiet ke tir do thj
do chieu 3 hay 5 o.
dm CHlfeU NGANG
Mot loi the co ban ciia do thi do chieu I 6 la kh nng biet dupe muc
lieu gia bng each dem chiku ngang. Neu ban nh lai nhfing gi chng
ta d ni ve do thi thanh v mo hinh gi, van de muc tieu gi da timg
dupe nhc den. Tuy nhien, hau nhu tat ca nhfing phuong php dat muc
tieu trong su dung do thj thanh deu dua tren phuong php do hrmig theo
chieu doc. C nghia la do chieu cao cua mo hinh (do dao dong) v dung
khong each d hudng xuong hoc hudng len. Vi du, m hinh du v
vai xc djnh dupe khong cch tu du den dung vien co v dao dng
den muc tieu gi d tinh tu diem ph v dung vien co.
Db thj dilm v hinh cho phep do lutmg theo chieu ngang

Nguyen tc do chieu ngang dupe dua tren tien de cho rng moi quan he
true tiep gifia chieu rong ca khu vue ging co gi v su bien dng theo
sau mt khi su ph v gi xy ra. Neu khu vue ging co gi the hien
mt m hinh goc, ta c the dua ra mt so du uc tinh gi tng khi m
hinh goc d dupe hon thien. KJii xu hung tng bt diu, cc khu vue
ging co gi theo sau c the dupe s dung de xc nhn viec tinh ton
ban dau tu m hinh goc.
Muc dich ca viec ny l nhm xc djnh dupe chieu rng ca m

hinh. Hy nh l chng ta dang ni den do thj do chieu 1 trong ngy.
Ky thut ny di hi su dieu chinh mt so dang do thj khc m chng
ta se ni den phan sau. Mt khi khu vue dinh hoc goc dupe nhn
Hnh 11.6 Bng vic m cc ct trong khu vc ging co gi theo hng ngang,
ta s xc nh uc mc tiu gi. Khu vc ging co gi cng rng th mc tiu
cng ln.
din, n gin l ta s m s ct trong nh hoc gc . V d, nu

c 20 ct th mc tiu tng hoc gim s l 20 k t im m. iu
quan trng l phi xc nh c mnh s m t ng no. i khi
vic ny din ra kh d dng nhng lm khi cng kh khn han.
Thng thng, ta m ng hng ngang nm gn trung tm khu

vc ging co gi. Mt quy lut nghim ngt khc l m ng c t s
trng nht, hoc ng c nhiu du X hoc o nht. M t khi bn tm
c ng chnh xc bt u m, nht nh phi m ht tt c
cc ct, thm ch c nhng ct trng. Hy m s ct trong khu vc
ging co gi v tnh khong cch t ng m ln n hoc xung
di.
C C M H N H G I
th im v hnh cng cho php nhn din m hnh. Hnh 11.7 cho
thy nhng dng m hnh gi ph bin nht.
Nh bn c th thy th chng khng khc bit nhiu so vi nhng

dng m hnh c tho lun v th thanh. Hu nh cc m hnh l
bin th ca y v hai nh v ba nh, u v vai, V v V o chiu,
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Hnh 11.7 Cc m hnh o chiu. (Ngun: Alexander H. Vheeian,, Thong

cun Trgip nghin cu k thut xy dng th im v hnh [New York, NY:
Morgan, Rogers v Roberts, Inc., 954] trang 25) Ti bn nm 990 bi nh
xut bn Traders Press, P.O. Box 620, Greenville, sc 29606.]
hnh da. Thut ng trc bn l " cng c nhc n trong ti liu v

th dim v hnh, v bn cht, trc bn l l mt khu vc ging co
gi dc xc nh r, xut hin sau mt t gia tng hoc suy gim
ng k, gip hnh thnh mt gc tch iy hoc mt dinh phn phi. V
d trong mt gc, y ca khu vc ging co phi chu th nghim nhiu
ln, di khi b gin on bi nhng n lc hi phc. Trc bn i rt
thung xut hin vi hnh dng ca hai y hoc ba y. M hnh gc
s uc hon thin khi s ph v xut hin (vt ln) trn dinh ca khu
vc ging co gi.
Nhng m hnh o chiu ny vi cc bin theo chiu ngang r

rng l thch ng vi phng php o lung. Nguc li, v khng c
trc gi nm ngang nn gc ch V s khng c dng o chiu
ngang. Nhng c bi en trong cc vi d hnh 1 .7 biu th nhng
im ngh mua v bn. Hy ch rng nhng im th hin s gia
nhp th trng thung xut hin ng- thi vi vic ti th nghim
nhng vng h tr trong mt gc hay khu vc khng c trong mt inh,
im ph v v s ph v ung xu hung
Phn tch xu hung v cc ng xu hng
Nhng m hnh gi trong hnh 11.7 cho thy ng xu hung uc v

nh mt phn ca cc m hnh ny. Vic phn tch ung xu hung trn
th trong ngy cng tucmg t nh phn tch c p dng cho cc
th thanh. ng xu hung tng uc v t cc y lin tip v ung
xu hung gim uc v t nhng nh Hn tip. iu ny khng ng
vi th im v hnh uc n gin ha m chng ta s ni ti
sau y. Thay vo , n s dng ng 45 vi mt cch v khc.
V T H IM V HNH O CH IU 3
Vo nm 1947, mt cun sch v th im v hnh c vit bi

A.W.Cohen c ta Xc nh thi im trong th trng chng
khon "(Stock Market Timing). Mt nm sau , khi Chartcraft Veekly
Services ra i, tn cun sch c i thnh Th thut s dng d th
300 John J. Murphy
im v hnh trong giao dch "(The Chartcraft Method o f Point &

Figure Trading). Mt so n bn c sa di uc xut bn k t thi
im ny bao gm c th trng hng ha ln quyn chn. Nm 1990,
Michel Burke vit cun "Hng dn cch xy dng v hnh thnh
th im v hnh o chiu 3 (The All New Guide to the Three-Point
Reversal Method o f Point & Figure Construction and Formations)
(Chartraft, New Rochelle, NY).
Cch v th trong phung php o chiu 1 nguyn thy i hi

phi c gi trong ngy. o chiu 3 dc rt ngn t o chiu 1
v s (tng cho phn tch xu hng trung gian. Cohen cho rng vi c
qu t t chiu 3 xut hin trong ngy giao dch nn khng cn s
dng gi trong ngy xy dng th o chiu 3 . V vy m ng
quyt nh chi s dng nhng mc gi cao nht v thp nht trong ngy
- nhng yu t c sn trong phn ln cc t bo ti chnh. K thut d
c iu chinh- ny R (hut duc coi l nn tng ca dch v
Chartcraft - dn gin ha cch xy dng th im v hnh gip
cc nh giao dch trung binh c th tip cn duc.
DNG BIU O CH lU 3 lM
Cch v dng th ny tung i n gin. u tin, th c t l

nh th hng ngy. Mi phi c gn vi mt gi tr. Nhng cng
vic ny c thc hin nu nh giao dch ng k thu bao s dng
dch v Chartcraft, trong d cc th c dng sn v cc gi tr
trong irc n nh. th ny m t mt lot ct xen k vi ct
X th hin s gia tng v gi v ct o th hin s suy gim gi. (Xem
hnh 11.8)
Vic dng d th ct X v o i hi phi c nhng mc gi cao nht

v thp nht trong ngy. Nu ct cui cng l mt ct X (biu th gi
tng), hy nhin mc cao nht ca ngy d. Nu mc cao ca ngy cho
php dnh mt hoc nhiu du X th hy in vo nhng ny v dng
li. C ngy hm chi lm nh vy thi. Hy nh l tt c cc phi
uc nh gi tr nguyn. Cc phn s khng dc tnh. Ngy hm sau
EX PLA N A TIO N d CHARTS
UY/coVII tHOII
> 1 1 1 /0 0 H 0 t
ilti/o o H O IT
U T /C O V II H O tl
U Y /C O V I 1 N O II
s i i i / c o SMoai
s t l l / o o SHOBV.
MONIH.
INITIAL UY.
o m i 4 M O U II T iC M M io ts
v d O N A i - O t* M O m fX* a m w * UgkM M U **C ti
*+I*> V i KI* dX u II t tf K M . N m > w lH
te * * ! OM* *?*>* MB h i
pha4 >* w?0tlM. tttm m m m * .
Hu - Om m U a IO r f w M b>w <
b * I o * prtn o M lW
C O v u r o K SMO0 - ( M M b * # ! M b *
t. t w w n i M w H IH lK u l W l. t
ClOttOT o A IOMO <*m
lU M ItO M U M n v jtO M A U .iW llM b r^ W W W

M iranitA ii * whM mi M Mai
I U I i Sn f a * vy. o
ihhMrt*
Hnh 11.8 N gun: C ourtesy o f C hartcra ft. In c., New Rochelle, N Y
ta lp li nhng bc trn, ch ch nhng mc gi cao nht. Chng

nn gi cn tng ngay c khi ch c th nh thm mt du X th vn
tip c in X vo cc m khng cn quan tm n nhng mc gi
thp.
302 John J. Murphy
Ta dung dnh dau vo ngy d khi mc gi cao nhat khng du cao

de dnh dau x vao o ke tiep. Tai diem d, hy nhin mc gi thap nhat
v xc dinh xem c phi dao chieu 3 o da dien ra theo huang khc hay
khong. Neu dng, ta chuyen sang phi mot cot, xuong diroi I o v dien
o vao 3 o ke tiep de bieu thi mot cot gim. Do ban dang c6 mot cot
gim, ngy ke tiep hy tham kho mc gi thp nhat de xem lieu c tiep
tue nhng cot o hay khong. Neu c the dnh them mot hay nhieu dau
o. Chi khi mc thap nhat ngy khng cho phep dien them dau o nao nfra
thi hy nhin vo mc cao nhat ngy de xem lieu dao chieu 3 o tng gi
c xy ra hay khng. Neu c, hy chuyen sang phi mot cot v bt dau
mot cot x mod.
Cc vn6 hinh do thi
Hinh 11.9 cho thay 16 md hinh gi pho bien ca do thi diem v hinh -
8 tin hieu mua v Sjin hieu. ban,______ - -
Hy nhin vo cc m hinh do thi. Vi cho thay cc tin hieu t S-l

den S-8, cot th 2 chi la mot hinh do nguoc ca cot 1 nen chng ta se
tap trung vo ben mua. Hai tin hieu dau tien, B-l v B-2, l nhng dang
don gin. Tin hieu mua dan gin tng gia di hi phi c 3 cdt, voi cot
th hai ca x dich chuyen mot 6 tren cot x truoc d . B -1 chi khc B-
2 mot diem nh - hien c 4 cot, trong d dy ca cot o th 2 cao hon
cot dau tien. B-l cho thay m6t su ph vcr don khi nguong khang cur.
B-2 the hien mt su ph va gi len tuong tu nhung vd dc trung ca
cc dy dang tng. Ly do d khien B-2 tr thnh mot m hinh manh
hon B-l.
M hinh th 3 (B-3), su ph va ba dinh> bat dau nhng m hinh

phc hop. Ch y rang tin hieu mua gi tng don gin l mot phn ca
bat ky mot m hinh phc hop no. Trong nhng phan sau, chng ta se
thay nhng m hinh ny ngy cng vng chc hon. Su ph va ba dinh
manh hon bi vi n n ph va 5 cot v 2 cot x. Hy nh rng goc cng
rpng thi kh nng tng gi cng cao. M hinh ba dinh tng gi (B-4)
ben vng hon B-3 vi dinh v dy ca n deu dang huang len. M hinh
Phn tch k hut th trng ti chnh 303
Hnh 11.9 Ngun K.c. Zieg, Jr., v PJ.Kaufituin, trong cun Point v Figure
Commodity Trading Techniques (K thut s dng th im v hnh trong
giao dch hng ha) ( New Rochelle. NY: Investors Intelligence)
ba nh m rng (B-5) cn bn hn na v n c 7 ct, trong c 3

ct X b ph v.
S ph v ln trn m t hnh tam gic tng g i (B-6) kt hp c hai

tn hiu. Trc ht, mt tn hiu mua n g in phi h in din. Sau
ng xu hung pha trn phi c dn sch (Chng ta s ni v cch
304 John J. M urphy
ve ducrng xu hung trong phn ke tiep). Tin hieu B-7, sir p h a v & le n tren
d u o n g k h n g c u , da tu giai thich duoc dieu do. Mot lan na, c hai dieu
can phai hien dien: mt tin hieu mua, v bien tren ca kenh xu hung
phi duoc don sachhon ton. Mo hinh sau cng, s ir p h a v a le n tr e n m o t
d u o n g k h n g c u g i g i m (B-8), cng can c hai yeu to. Mot tin hieu
mua don gin ket hop vi viec pha v dung xu hung gim. D l nhien
nhng gi chng ta thao luan tu m htnh B-l den B-8 deu duoc ap dung
giong nhu nhau cho m hinh S -1 den S-8, ngoai trir trong trucmg hop
th hai thi gi gim xung thay vi tang ten.
O d y c d m t d ie m k h c b ie t g i a v ie c p d u n g n h im g m h in h n a y
v o th i tru c m g h n g h a s o v o i th i tr u d n g c h n g k h o n . N6i cluing, c
16 tin hieu ny deu duoc s dung trong giao dich chng khon. Tuy
nhien, vi tinh bien dong nhanh dc trong ca thi trucmg tuong lai nen
m hinh phvrc h o p khng ph bien nhu trong thi trung hng ha. Vi
the m cc tin hieu don gin c tm quan trong cao hon. Nhieu nh giao
dich thi trung tuong lai chi dng tin hieu dem g i n . Neu chon cch ch
doi nhng m hinh phc hop v ben vng hon, ho se b l rt nhieu c o
hoi sinh li.
VE DUNG XU HU NG
Khi tho lun ve do thi ngy, chng ta c ni den dung xu hung duoc
ve bng cch truyen thong. Dy khng phi trung hop do thj do chieu
3 diem. Cc dung xu hung tren nhng dang do thi ny duoc ve mt
gc 45 d. Ngoi ra, dung xu hung cng khng cn phi noi nhng
dinh v dy troe do.
Dung khng cu gi gim v dung ho tro gi tng co bn

Dy l nhng dung xu hung tng gim co bn. Vi nhng do thi ny
da duoc rt gon het mc nen chng ta khng the noi nhng dinh phuc
hoi hoc nhng mc gi thap tuong ng. Do d, chng ta s dung
dung 45 d. Trong xu hung tng, d u a n g h o t r q g i t n g duoc ve
hung len ben phi mt gc 4 5 tu ben dui nhng cot o thp nht. Den
Phn tch k thut (h trng ti chnh 305
Hnh 11.10 Vi d th o chiu 3 im ca chng khon ca Charlcra/l.

Ch Vrng itng xu hung tie v mt gc 450. (Ngun: Chartcmfl. New
Rocitele, NY).
khi no gi cn bn trn ng d th xu hng chinh vn l tng gi.

Trong xu hng gim, ng khng c gi gim c v hng xung
bn phi mt gc 45 d t dinh ca ct X cao nht. n khi no gi cn
bn di ng xu hng gim th xu hng chnh vn l gim. (Xem
hnh U -1 U 2 )
306 John J. M urphy
Hinh 11.11 H ai v i du v ep h u a n g p h a p d o chieu 3 Imng d o thi diem v hinh

ca Chartcmft. C c duon g xu hung d u q c v e or m ol g d c 4 5 . (Ngun:
Chartcraft. N ew Rochelle, NY)
i khi, nhng ung ny phi c diu chinh. V d, c nhng lc

mt s hiu chnh (gim gi tm thi) ca xu hng tng li lm gi rt
xung dui ng h tr ri hi phc xu hng tng sau . Trong
nhng trng hp nh vy, mt ung h tr mi phi uc v mt
gc 45 t y ca ngng thp . C khi, mt xu hng tr nn
mnh n ni ng xu hung tng ban u cch rt xa ung ng
thi gi. Trong trung hp , ung xu hung phi uc v st hn d
c dng h tr thch hp nht.
CC K TH U T O LNG
th o chiu 3 im cho php s dng hai k thut o lng khc

nhau - o theo chiu ngang v theo chiu dc. i vi k thut o
lng theo chiu ngang, ta m s ct trong mt m hnh y hoc
dinh, sau nhn s ct vi gi tr ca t o chiu hoc s cn cho
mt s o chitt.-V d, trong mt th o chiu 3 , ta t gi tr
mi l $ 1. Chng ta m s trn phn gc n 10. V chng ta s
dng o chiu 3 , gi tr ca phn o chiu s l $3 (3x$l). Nhn 10
ct trn phn gc vi $3 thnh $30. Ly tch cng vo y ca m
hnh y hoc ly nh ca m hnh nh tr cho tch c mc tiu
gi.
K thut o lung theo chiu dc th n gin hn. Ta s m s

trong ct th nht ca xu hng mi. Trong xu hng tng, hy m
ct X u tin. Trong xu hung gim, hy m ct 0 u tin. Nhn s
vi 3 v cng tch v y hoc ly nh ca ct tr cho tch.
Cng c th lm tuong t vi biu o chiu 3 bng cch nhn 3
kch thc ca chn du tin. Nu trn d th xut hin inh hoc hai
d y, hy m ct X hoc 0 th hai.(Xem hnh 11.12)
CC CH IN TH U T GIAO DCH
Hy xem xt nhng phng thc s dng th im v hnh khc nhau

xc nh thi im gia nhp hoc thot khi th trung.
Hnh 11.12 ca y cn li cho thy mue tiu trc ngang ti 92 ca British
Telecomm PLC hng cch nhn ba phn goc v cng vi 50. Bn phi, mc
tiu chiu dc l 102 dc xc nh bng cch nhn ba C I X v cng vi 63.
Ngun: Chartcraft, New Rochelle, NY)
1. M t tn hiu m ua n gin c th c s dng thc hin vic

bn nhng v th c v b t u nhng t m ua mi.
2. T n hiu bn don gin c th c s dng d thanh khon nhng

v th m ua c v/hoc bt u nhng v th bn mi.
3. Tn hiu n gin ch c th c dng thanh khon trong m

hnh phc h p thc hin vic tham gia mi.
4. ng xu hng c th c s dng nh m t u lc. N hng v

th m ua c a ln trn v v th bn nm di iing xu
hung.
5. C th th m o him vi nhng im nm di c t o cui cng

trong xu hung tng v trn ct X cui cng trong xu hng gim
lm im t ng dng.
6. im gia nhp th trng trn thc t c th b thay i nh sau:
a. Trong xu hng tng, hy m ua ti im ph v thc s.
b. M ua ti im chiu 3 sau c ph v c th g ia nhp

th trng ti im thp hn.
. S au m t s Hiu cKinh, hy m ua ti im o ch iu 3 theo

hng t ph v u tin. Vic ny khng ch i hi c mt
s o chiu tng chc chn theo hng chnh xc, m cn phi
t lnh dng ti im gn bn di ct o mi nht hn.
d. Khi c tn hiu ph v u tin hy m ua ti im ph v th

hai cng hng.
N h c th nhn thy trn bng lit k, c rt nhiu cch s dng

th im v hnh. K hi thng hiu k thut cn bn, bn c th linh
hot trong vic tm im gia nhp v thot khi th trng bng k thut
ny.
iu chinh lnh dng
Tn hiu m ua hoc bn thc s xut hin ngay tn hiu u tin. Tuy

nhin, khi bin ng tip din th mt vi tn hiu khc s xut hin trn
th. N hng tn hiu m ua v bn lp li ny uc s ng cho nhng
v th pht sinh thm. D vic c din ra hay khng th im t nh
dng cng c th nm ngay bn di ct o cui cng trong m t xu
hng tng v nm ngay trn ct X cui cng trong m t xu hng gim.
310 John J. Murphy
Viec sir dung lenh dng trucrt gia tao dieu kien cho nh du nr duy tri
vi the v bao ve lot nhun tich luy cng luc.
Nen lam gi sau m ot bien dong keo dai
Nhung dot hieu chinh lc c luc khng trong xu hudng cho ph6p nh
giao djch dieu chinh lenh dng khi xu hudng do phuc hoi. Tuy nhien,
qua trinh ny se ket thc nhu the no neu nhung dot do chieu 3 xut
hien trong xu hudng? Nh giao dich sau d se doi mat vdi mt cot x di
trong xu hudng tng hoc mt cot o di trong xu hudng giam. Tinh
trang thi trudng ny tao ra mt diem cuc, trong d cot x v ct o keo
di m khng c bat ky mt surhieu chinh no. Nh giao dich muon duy
tri xu hudng nhung cng can nhng ky thuat de bo ton loi nhun. C
it nht mt cch de thtrc hien viec ny. Sau mt dot bien dong lien tue
10 hoc hon na, hy dt lenh dng tai diem xy ra do chieu 3 .
Neu vi the khng duoc bo-ve thi-viec tai tham gia thi tnidng se duoc
thuc hien tai diem do chieu 3 khc theo hudng ca xu hudng du
tien. Trong tnidng hop d, mt uu diem khc l dt mt lenh dng mdi
ben dudi ct o gn nht trong xu hudng tng hoc ben tren ct x gn
nht trong xu hudng gim.
UU D lM CA B l u B B l M V HINH
Do thi diem v hinh c mt so uu diem sau dy:
1. Bng cch thay doi kich thude ca v khu vue do chieu, do thi
ny dp ng duoc hau nhu moi yeu cu. C rt nhieu cch khc
nhau de tim duoc diem gia nhp v thot khi thj trudng.
2. Tin hieu giao dich chinh xc hon do thj thanh.
3. Khi tun theo nhng tin hieu xc dinh ca do thi diem v hinh,
trinh tu giao dich se trd nen tot hon. (Xem hinh 11.13- 11.18)
Tri phiu Chnh ph 1600 (TRI 1600) 0*12*8

D th im & hnh (5x3)
ffe]
m
La w MI 1W >1W
H nh 11.13 th gi tung lai ca Tri phiu Chinh ph trong hn 2 nm.

Nhng mi tn biti th tn hiu mua v bn. Hu ht cc tin hiu th hin k
t xu hng ca th trng. Ngay c khi tin hiu xu xut hin th th cng
nhanh chng scLcha n.--------
Hnh 11.14 Tin hu bn vo u nm 1994 (mi tn xung th nht) ko di

c nm 994. Tin hiu mua u nm 1995 (mi tn ln th nht) tn ti 2 nm
n 1997. Mt tin hiu bn gia nm 1997 chuyn hung thnh tin hiu mua
vo u nm 1998.
312 John J. Murphy
Hinh 11.15 D o th i nay ditoc ru t gon tu d th i dng USD tncc do bang cach
nhn dot kich thuov d Trong phien ban it nhay hon nay c h i cd 2 tin hieu. Tin
hieu cuoi cung l mua (m ui ten len) g iitu nm 998 gan nrirc 85 tm ng gan 3
nm.
Hinh 11.16 D o th i diem va hinh ca King cho thay n io t tin hieu ban (m ui ten
xung) gan m ite $380 trong nm 996. G i vng giant $ 0 0 trong 2 nm ke
tiep.
Hnh 1 1 . 1 7 th im v hnh ca du th cho thy tn hiu bn (mi tn

xutg) gn mc $20 trong thng 10 nm 1997 v rt gi S sau . Phc hi
xu hng girn, gi du th ng ln trn c t X cui cng n mc 16,50.
Hnh 1 1 . 1 8 th im v hnh C h s Sem iconductor cho thy 4 tn hiu

trong vng 2 nm nti. Mi tn h ng xung bitt hin 2 ti hiu bn kp thi
trong nm 995 v 997. Tin hiu mua trong nm 996 (mi tn huig ln th
nht) phuc hi sau .
314 John J. Murphy
CH BO K THUT IM v h n h
Trong cun sch vit nm 1995 c ta Point < Figure Charting (S

dng th im v hnh) (John Wiley & Sons), Thomas J. Dorsey tha
nhn phng php o chiu 3 Chartcra trong chng khon. ng
cng tho lun v vic ng dng th im v hinh trong giao dch
hng ha v quyn chn. Gii thch cch v v c th, Dorsey cng
chng minh k thut im v hnh (gi tt im v hnh - P&F) c th
c s dng cho vic phn tch cng tung di. phn tch khu vue
v trong vic xy dng Chi s t l gia lng NYSE (NYSE Bullish
Percent Index). ng chi r cc th im v hnh c th c dng
cho ung tng gim chi s NYSE, chi s NYSE cao nht thp nht,
v t ! chng khon trung bnh 10 tun v 30 tun. Dorsey cng nhn
Michel Burke, nh sng lp Chartcraft (Chartcraft, Inc., Investors
Intelligence, 30 Church Street, New Rochelle, N.Y. 10801) v s pht
trin nhng ch bo im v hnh ci tin ca dch v ny.
VI TN H H A T I HNH V IM
My vi tnh khin cho vic v th im v hnh khng cn vt v

na. Nhng chui ngy v ct X v o ln giy chi l hoi nim. Cc
phn mm v th d lm gip bn cng vic ny. Hn na, bng mt
bn phim, bn c th thay i kch thc v vng o chiu diu
chinh th cho phn tch trong ngn hay di hn. Bn c th xy ng
biu im v hnh t d liu thc (trong ngy) v cui ngy, v cn
c the p dng chng cho bt k th trng no bn mun. Nhng, vi
mt chic my tnh, bn c th lm nhiu diu hn th na.
Kenneth Tower (CMT), nh phn tch k thut ca Cng ty Chng

khon UST, (5 Vaughn Drive, CN5209, Princeton, N.J.08543) s
dng mt phng php v th im v hinh l-ga. Mt quy trnh
chiu o lng dao ng ca chng khon trong 3 nm c th xc
nh uc kich thc theo t l phn trm chnh xc cho mi loi chng
khon. Hnh 11.19 v 11.20 cho thy v d v th im v hnh lo
ga ca Tower p dng cho America Online v Intel. Kch thuc dng
Hnh 11.19 M t thi im v hnh l-ga ca America Online. thi o

chiu ttc da trn tiu chun t . Mi c gi tr 3,6%. V y th o
chiu 2 , mt s o chiti c gi tr 7,2%. H y ch cch o chiu ngang
hting ln n mc 69,7 v 136,5. (2 ng cong). (Hnh do UST Securities
Corp cung cp.)__
Hnh 11.20 M t th im v hnh o chiu I ca Intel c s dng t .

c th di chuyn sang ct k tip, chng ta cn s o chiu 3,6%. Hy m
trn trc ngang t phi sang tri dc theo phn gc, hng ln trn n mc
S v c th n 87,6 ( xem cc ng cong). (Hnh do ST Securities Corp
cung cp.)
316 John J. Murphy
cho AOL trong hnh 11.19 l 3,6%. S o chiu 1 do d s cn mc

thoi li 3,6%. V l biu o chiu 2 nn mc thoi li l 7,2%
d bt du mt ct mi. Kch thuc mi ca th cho Intel trong
hnh 11.20 c gi tr 3,2%.
Nhng ng cong trn c hai th l vi d v vic s dng cch

o lung gi chiu ngang ca mt gc d t mc tiu gi v ngn v
di hn. V d, th ca Intel cho thy mc tiu gi ngn hn 33
bng cch o na ung gc gi (dng cong bn diii). ng cong
ln hon uc o n 87,6, bng cch o gc gi v chiu khong cch
hung ln. Nu nhn k hom hnh 11.19 v 11.20, bn cng s thv
nhng du chm ln theo dng thi gi. Nhng chm ny l nhng
ng trung bnh ng.
NG TRUNG BNH NG lM v h n h
ung trung bnh di dng thung c p dng cho th thanh.

Nhng y l th im v hnh ca Ken Tower v UST Securities.
T<>\vcr s dng hai ng trung bnh di ng trn th ca ng, mt
ng 10 ct v mt 20 ct. Nhng chm bn thy trn hnh 11.19 v
11.20 l nhng ng trung bnh di ng 10 ct. ung trung bnh di
ng uc v bng cch tnh gi binh qun mi ct. lm c ' ;c
ny, ta tnh tng mc gi trong mi ct v chia tng cho s X hoc
o trong ct . Sau , kt qu uc tnh bnh qun trn 10 v 20 ct.
ng trung binh di ng c s dng Ung t nh th thanh.
Hnh 11.21 l th im v hnh ca cng mt loi c phiu vi

dung trung bnh di ng 10 ct (chm) v 20 ung trung bnh di
dng 20 ct (cch ngang). th y l th l-ga do chiu 2,7%
ca Royal Dutch Petroleum nm 1992. Hy ch rng dung trung
bnh di ng nhanh hon nm trn ung trung binh di ng chm hon
trong xu hng tng gi 4 nm t 1993 n 1997. Ta c th thy rng
hai ng trung binh di ng song hnh trong na sau ca nm 1997,
nm day bin ng ca loi c phiu ny. Nhn v pha phi ta c th
thy c phiu ca Royal Dutch ang trn b phc hi xu hng tng
Phn tch k thu th trng ti chnh 317
Hnh 11.21 Hai th im v hnh ca Royal Dutch Petmleutn. th y

mt th l-ga ko di trong mt s nm. th trn l th utg
thng trong nm. Nhng chm v gch ngang tng ng th hin nhng
ng trung bnh di ng 10 v 20 ct. (Cung cp bi ST Securities Corp.
Cp nht ngy 26 thng 3 nm 1998).
318 John J. Murphy
chnh ca n. Khi nhn k hon, ta c th thy kh nng ph v tng gi

uc th hin trn th pha trn trong hnh 11.21.
th bn trn l th ung thng o chiu 1 im truyn thng

ca cng loi c phiu. Khung thi gian trn th ng thng ngn
hn d th di. Nhung nu quan st k s bin dng gi giai on cui
nm 1997 v u 1998, bn c th nhn thy s ph v gi ln trong
ngn hn vo u nm 1998. Chng khon ny cn tin n mc 60
xc nhn mt c ph v tng gi chnh. ng trung bnh di ng
khng hu ch khi gi giao dch trong bin (v chng chua bao gi
v ch nh vy), nhung s tng nu thc s c mt s ph v gi ln.
Khi b sung thm ung trung bnh di ng vo th im v hnh,
Ken Tower to ra mt chi bo k thut hu ch khc cho vic s dng
th im v hnh. Cch s dng th l-ga to ra mt phuong php
mi m khi v dng d th kinh in ny.
TM LC
th im v hnh chng phi l k thut lu i nht trn th gii.
Danh hiu thuc v d th hinh nn Nht Bn vn uc s dng ti
quc gia ny trong hng th k. Trong chuong tip theo, Greg Morris,
tc gi ca hai cun sch v th hnh nn s gii thiu v k thut
lu i ny nhung c ph bin trong gii phn tch k thut phng
Ty nhng nm gn dy.
CHNG 12
th hnh nn
Nht Bn*
G I I TH IU
Trong khi uc ngui Nht s ng sut hng th k nay, th hnh

nn v k thut phn tch chi mi ph' bin phng Ty nhng nm
gn y. Thut ng hnh nn thc s cp n hai vn khc nhau
nhung li c mi lin quan vi nhau. S khc bit du tin v c l ph
bin hcm uc th hin ch rng dyl phng php th hin cc d
liu chng khon v giao dch tng lai nhm phc v vic phn tich
d th. Khc bit th hai - l ngh thut nhn din nhng cch kt
hp nht nh cc thanh nn trong s nhng cch kt hp uc xc
nh v chng minh. iu ng mng l c hai k thut u c th uc
s dng c lp hoc phi hp vi nhau.
V T H H N H NN
Nhng d liu th trng phc v vic v th hnh nn s dng cng

loi d liu c sn p dng cho th thanh: gi m ca, cao nht, thp
nht v ng ca. Mc d s dng cng mt d liu nhng th hnh
nn c s trinh by bt mt hn. Thng tin trn th hnh nn ni bt
Chng ny dc bin son v cung cp bi Gregory L. Morris

320 John J. Murphy
len man hinh, de dien gii v de phn tich hon nhieu. Hinh ben dui
cho thay su khc biet ve gi trong ngy ca do thj hinh nen v hinh
thanh. (Xem hinh 12.1).
Ban c6 the thay duoc tai sao n lai co ten l d thj hinh nen. Chng
trng giong mt thanh nen vi ngon bac. Hinh ch nht bieu thj d
chenh lech gia gi m v dng ca trong ngy duoc goi l thn nen.
Hy ch y rang thn nen c the l den hoc trng. Mot thn nen trang
c nghla l gi dng ca cao hon gi m ca. Thuc ra, thn nn khng
phi mu trng, nhimg de trng nhu vy khien n de phn biet hon tren
my tinh. Cng bi the m d thi duoc in t my tinh mt cch chinh
xc. Dy l mt trong nhng sudieu chinh khi n du nhap vo cc nuoc
phuong Ty, vi ngiri Nht von dng mu d cho thn nen rong. Thn
nen den c nghla l gi dng ca thap hon gi m ca. Trong do thi
hinh nen Nht Bn, gi m ca v dng ca c tm quan trong hon
nhieu. Nhung dung nh phia tren v ben dui thn nen chinh l ngon
bc hay bng mcr. Nhieu ten goi khc nhau ca nhng dung ny xuat
hien trong cc ti lieu tham kho ca Nht Bn, nhung chng duoc xem
l du tha vi bieu thi cho mc gi cao v thap nhat von khng duoc cc
nh phn tich Nhat Bn coi trong (Xem hinh 12.2).
Hinh 12.2 the hien cng mt loai du lieu tren c do thi thanh v' do
thj hinh nen Nhat Bn. Ban c the nhanh chng nhn ra nhng dir lieu
von rt kh xc djnh tren do thj thanh lai hien ra rt r rang tren do thi
hinh nen. Ban du ban c the cn thi gian de lm quen n nhung ve
sau ban se thich n hon nhieu.
th i
v /V V
\ fl
th h n h nn

V *V v
Hnh 12.2
Mi dng nn khc nhau li mang nhng ngha khc nhau. Ngui

Nht xc nh uc nhng loi hnh nn u tin, da trn mi quan
h ca gi m ca, cao nht, thp nht v dng ca. Vic hiu uc
nhng dng nn cn bn l buc u tin ca phn tch th hnh nn.
NHNG HNH NN c BN
S kt hp nhng thn nn/ngn bc khc nhau s mang nhng ngha
khc nhau. Phin giao dch vi s chnh lch gia gi m ca v ng
ca ln uc gi l nn di (long days). Phin giao dch c chnh lch
nh gi l nn ngn (shorl days). Hy nh rng chng ta ang ni n
chiu di thn nn v khng nhc n gi cao nht v thp nht. (Xem
hnh 12.3).
nh xoay (Spinning lop) l nhng phin c thanh nn nh vi ngn

bc trn v di di hn thn nn. Vi thanh nn inh xoay th mu thn
nn khng quan trng. inh xoay th hins ging co, khng qu quyt
ca th trung. (Xem hnh 12.4).
322 John J. Murphy
J_
Di hn
1 1
I

*
P
nr

3 hn

H n h 12.3 H n h 1 2 .4. in h x o a y
Khi gi ng ca bng gi m ca thi chng uc gi l ng Doji.

Nhng thanh nn Doji c chiu dai ngn bc khc nhau. Khi ni n
thanh nn Doji, chng ta nn nh rng vn nm ch liu gi ng
ca v m ca c buc phi hon ton bng nhau hay khng. l thi
im khi gi phi gn nh ngang bng nhau, c bit l khi cp n
cc bin ng ln v gi.
C nhng thanh nn Doji khc cng rt quan trng. D oji chn di

(Long-Legged Doji) c bng m trn v di di, phn nh s lng l
ca nhng ngui tham gia th trung. Doji bia (Gravestone Doji) chi
c mt bng m trn di v khng c bng m dui.
Bng m trn cng di th cng cho thy xu hng gim gi. Doji
chun chun (Dragonfly -----------------------------------------------------
Doji) l thanh nn di lp -T*
vi Doji bia vi bng
m di di v khng c
bng m trn. N thng
biu th xu hung tng !
gi. (Xem hnh 12.5).
H nh 12.5 Thanh nn D oji
Nhng thanh nn n gin cc k quan trng trong phn th hnh

nn Nht Bn. n s nhn ra rng tt c cc m hnh nn Nht u
c kt hp t nhng thanh nn c bn ny.
PHN T C H M HNH NN NHT
M hnh nn Nht l bc tranh m t tm l cc nh giao dch ti thi

im . N cho thy hnh ng ca nh giao dch trn th trng qua
thi gian. Phn tch m hnh nn Nht thc s c hiu qu v con ngi
lun lun c nhng hnh ng tcmg t trong nhng hon cnh ging
nhau.
Mt m hnh nn Nht c th uc to thnh t mt dng nn don

hay nhiu ung khc nhau nhung khng bao gi nhiu hn 5. Trong
khi hu ht m hnh nn Nht dc dng xc nh im o chiu,
th c rt t m hnh uc s dng nhm xc nhs tip din xu hng
ca th trng. Chng m ch nhng m hnh o chiu v tip din.
Bt c lc no mt m hnh do chiu mang tn hiu tng gi th mt
m hnh nguc li s c ngha gim gi. Tung t, mt m hnh tip
din biu th xu hung gi tng thi m hnh ngc li cng cho bit gi
gim. Khi c mt cp m hnh hnh thnh trong nhng tnh trng gi
tng v gi gim th chng cng tn. TUy nhin, trong mt s t trung
hp th m hnh tng gi v gim gim li mang nhng ci tn hon
ton khc nhau.
M h nh o chiu
M hnh nn do chiu l s kt hp nhng thanh nn Nht biu th mt

s do chiu xu hng, c n phi thn trng xem xt xu hng th
trng trc c th xc nh c m hnh l tng hay gim. n
khng th c mt m hnh o chiu tng gi trong mt xu hng tng.
Bn c th c hng lot thanh nn mang biu hin ca m hnh tng,
nhung nu xu hung dang tng th n khng phi l n hnh nn Nht
tng gi. Ngc li, khng th c m hnh o chiu gi gim trong mt
xu hng gim.
324 John J. Murphy
Dieu nay the hien mot van de ton lai lau nay khi phn tich thi trung:
xu hung la gi?Banphi xc djnh duoc xu hudng tnroc khi c the sir
dung m hinh nen Nht mt cch hieu qua. Mc du trong viec xc dinh
xu hung, chng ta quan tm den khoi luong giao dich, nhung vdi mo
hinh nen Nht thi viec sir dung dircrng trung binh di dng se tot hon. Khi
xu hung ngn han (mircri chu ky thcri gian hoc hon nua), m hinh nen
Nht se ho tro dang ke viec xc dinh dot do chieu ciia xu hung d.
Nguoi Nht da tim ra duoc khong 40 m hinh nen do chieu. N

da dang tir nhung dirong nen don dn nhng m hinh phuc nhieu nht
l 5 dircmg. Co rat nhieu vi du dng xem nhung day ta chi tho lun
mot so it m hinh pho bien.
M hinh m ay den bao plw (Dark Cloud

Cover) l m hinh do chieu hai phien
bieu thi xu hung gim gi. (Xem hinh
12.6) No cung c mt m hinh bo sung
nhung dui mt ci ten khc l durng
xuyen ph (Piercing Line). Phien du
tien ca m hinh dupc bieu thi bng mt
thanh nen trng di. N phn nh xu
huong hien tai v gip xc nhn xu
hung tng gi cho nh giao dich. Gi
m ca ngy tiep theo cao hon gi cao
H inh 12.6 D a rk C lo u d C over
(m y d e n b a o p h ) nht ca ngy hm truc, cng co xu
hung tng. Tuy nhien, thi gian giao
dich trong qung thi gian cn lai thp hon trong d gi dng ca nm
dui trung diem ca thn nen ngy th nht. Viec ny nh hung dng
ke den tm ly gi tng v se khien nhieu ngui bn ra. Vi gi dng ca
thp hon gi m ca nen nen ca ngy th hai l thanh nen den. Ci ten
my den bao ph am chi dieu ny.
Dirng xuyen ph (Piercing Line). L dang doi lp ca m hinh

my den bao ph, Dung xuyen ph bieu thi su tng gi. (Xem hinh
12.7) vi tinh huong tuong tu nhung do nghjch lai. Xu hung hien tai
l gim, thanh nn th nht l thanh nn

en di cng c nim tin nh giao dch
trong xu hng gim. Ngy k tip m
ca ti mt mc gi thp mi v giao
dch cao hon sau d ri ng ca trn
trung im ca thn nn u tin. iu
ny lm thay i ng k tm l gim
gi v nhiu ngui s quay du hoc
thot khi v th.
M hnh nn Sao hm v Sao mai

(Evening Star v Morning Star): y l
H nh 12.7 P iercin g line+ v .
( ng x u y n p h ) hai m hnh nn Nht rt mnh m. Hai
m hnh ba phin ny u c hiu qu
khc thng. Phng php nm bt tm l nh giao dch trong m hnh
Sao Hm Saa-Hm.sLiic tho lun y y vi iu ngc li
cng s c ni n trong m hnh Sao Mai. (Xem hnh 12.8 v 12.9).
M hnh Sao Hm l m hnh nn o chiu gi gim. Ngy du tin
H nh 12.9 M h n h n n S a o M a i
326 John J. Murphy
ca m hnh l mt thanh nn trng di cng c xu hung tng hin ti.

M ca ngy giao dch th hai, gi tng hn ln trn thn ca thanh nn
u tin. Hot ng giao dch ngy th hai hi b hn ch v ng ca
gn mc gi m ca d vn cao hon phn thn nn th nht. Thn nn
ngy th hai nh. Kiu giao dch sau mt thanh nn di nh th ny
c xem l mt m hnh ngi sao. Mt ngi sao l mt thanh nn nh
theo sau mt thanh nn di. Ngy th ba v l ngy cui ca m hnh
m ca bn dui thn ca ngi sao mt on v dng ca gim vi gi
ng ca thp hn trung im ca ngy u tin.
Cch gii thch tmc c xem l hon ho. Nhiu ti liu tham
kho c th chng minh chc chn mt iu, mt m hnh Sao Hm
khng th dp ng dy v chnh xc tng chi tit. Vi d, c th ngy
th ba nn s khng roi xung hoc gi ng ca ca n khng hon
ton nm bn du trung im thn nn th nht. Ta phi quan tm n
nhng chi tit ny khi xem xt mt th hnh nn, nhung khi s dng
chng trnh my tnh xc nh m hnh th khng cn. L do l
chung trnh my tnh i hi cc ch dn c th c th hnh nn
ch khng cho php s n gii ch quan.
C c m h n h tip d iin
Trong mi ngy giao dch, nh u tu cn ua ra nhng quyt nh

chnh xc nh bn ra, mua vo hay nm gi. Do , m hnh nn tip
din gip chng ta bit c xu hng giao dch trn th trung s tip
tc di ln/i xung l rt cn thit. N cn gip tr li uc cu hi liu
bn c nn duy tr v th giao dch hay khng. Hin c khong 16 m
hnh xc nh xu hung tip din. Trong , hai m hnh c bit hiu
qu phi k n l Cng thc Tng/Gim 3 (Rising and Falling Three
Methods).
Cng thc Tng/Gim 3. M hnh nn tip din ny l m hnh tng

gi, chi xut hin trong xu hng tng v m hnh tip din gim gi
ch xut hin trong xu hng gim. iu ny khng nh li s mi lin
h vi xu hung v rt cn thit cho phn tch m hnh nn. (Xem hnh
Hnh 12.10 Phng php lng ba +. Hnh 12.11 Phung php gim ba-.
12.10 v 12.11).
Ngy u tin ca Phng php tng ba l mt thanh nn trng di,

mang rinh cht h tr xu hung i ln ca th trng. Tuy nhin, trong
ba ngy tip theorba thanm n ngn xut hin vi xu hng i xung.
Chng u nm trong chiu di ca thn nn trng ngy th nht v t
nht hai trong s l mu en. Khong thi gian ny uc gi l
"khong nghi" khi th trng khng c biu hin r rng. Tip d, ngy
th nm l mt thanh nn trng di khc v ng ca vi mt mc cao
mi. Gi ph v phm vi giao dch cht chi trc v bo hiu xu
hng i ln s tip tc.
Nhng m hnh nn nm ngy nh Phuong php tng ba bao gm

rt nhiu chi tit trong nh ngha ca n. Cch l gii trn l mt v d
hon ho ca m hnh Phung php tng ba, ngui c kinh nghim c
th p dng mt cch linh hot. V d, khong ngh ba ngy c th
khng nm trong khong thn nn m nm trong khong gi cao nht-
thp nht ca ngy th nht. Nhng ngy ny cng khng bt buc u
l nn en. V cui cng, khong ngh c th ko di ra hon bangy.
Hy luu Phng php tng/gim ba thot khi nhng lo u v vic
lm sao bo ton li nhun.
328 John J. Murphy
X c n h m hnh nn N h t b n g m y tn h
Chng trnh my tnh s gip bn nhn bit cc m hinh nn m

khng b nh hng bi yu t cm tnh. Tuy nhin, khi xem cc thanh
nn trn mn hnh my tinh, bn cn lu hai iu sau. Mn hnh my
tnh c to nn t nhng n v nh gi l im nh. C rt nhiu
im nh v s lng ph thuc vo phn gii khi kt hp th mn
hnh ca my tinh. Nu bn dang xem nhng thanh nn c phm vi gi
ln trong mt khong thi gian ngn, bn s c cm gic ang nhn
nhng thanh Doji (vi gi ng v m ca bng nhau). Nhung thc ra
khng phi. Vi phm vi gi in, trn mn hnh mi im nh s c
phm vi gi ring. Chng trnh my xc nh cc m hnh da trn h
thc ton hc s khng gp phi cc khuyt im v th gic. Hy vng
rng nhng dng gii thch ny gip bn khng cho rng phn mm
my tnh ca bn khng hot dng.
CC M HNH NN CHN L C
Nm 1991, Greg Morris d pht trin mt khi nim mi gi l chn

lc m hnh nn Nht, to ra mt phuong php ci thin chnh xc
ca m hnh nn Nht. Mc d xu hng th trng ngn hn phi c
xc nh truc khi m hnh nn hnh thnh, nhng vic s dng phung
php phn tch k thut truyn thng xc nh th trng mua qu
mc v bn qu mc s lm gia tng kh nng d bo ca m hnh nn
Nht. K thut ny ng thi loi b nhng m hnh xu hoc cha
hon ho.
Bn phi nm vng cch phn ng vi d liu v gi ca cc ch bo

k thut, in hnh l cch dng ch bo Stochastic %D. Ch bo
Stochastic dao ng trong khong t 0 n 100, trong 20 l bn qu
mc (gi rt mnh xung dui gi tr thc) v 80 l mua qu mc (gi
tng cao qu mc). Khi %D tng ln trn 80 ri rt xung diri 80 s
to ra mt tin hiu bn. Tng t, khi n gim xung di 20 ri nhy
ln trn 20 s to ra mt tn hiu mua. (Xem Chng 10 v Stochastic).
Phn tch k th u t th tr n g ti chnh 329
Ni'tm li khi ch bo Stochastic tin ln trn 80 hoc xung di

20 th tn hiu xut hin. Ni cch khc, ch l vn thi gian cho n
c tn hiu xut hin. Khu vc bn trn 80 v bn di 20 c gi l
vng tin tn hiu, cng chnh l vng mc tiu ca % D trc khi n
cho thy mt tn hiu giao dch (Xem hnh 12.12)
Khi nim m hnh nn Nht s dng vng tin tn hiu. Ch kh %D

tin vo vng tin tn hiu thi m hnh nn Nht mi c xem xt,
chng hn mc 65 th khng. Hn na, ch c m hnh nn o chiu
mi p dng khi nim ny.
Vic chn lc m hnh nn Nht khng gii hn khu s dng ch

bo Stochastic %D. Bt k mt ch s dao ng k thut dng c cho
phn tch cng c p dng chn lc m hnh nn Nht. Nhng ch
s RSI ca Wilder, CCI ca Lambert v %R ca W illiam s t c th
s dng hiu qu. (Nhng ch bo dao ng ny c gii thch
trong Chung 10).
330 John J. Murphy
TOM LUOC
Viec xy dung v phn tich do thi nen Nht l cng cu thiet yeu de xc
dinh thcri diem trong giao dich thi twang. Ban nen sir dung m hinh nen
Nht nhu bat ky mot cng cu ky thut no de nghien cu tm ly ca
ngucri tham gia thi truong. Mot khi quen v6i viec sir dung cc thanh nen
de xem gi, ban se khng muon sir dung do thi thanh nira. Viec ket hop
mo hinh nen Nht voi nhung chi bo ky thut khc trong van de chon
loc se tao ra tin hieu giao dich truc nhung chi bo dua tren gi khc.
X
M HNH NN NHT
Danh sch cc m hnh nn Nht bn di c dng xc nh

du hiu. Con s trong ngoc n s thanh nn cn cho vic xc
nh m hnh c ni n. Cc m hnh tang gi v gim gi c
chia thnh hai nhm biu th m hnh o chiu hoc tip din.
Builish Reversals Bearish Reversals

Long White Body (1) Long Black Body (1)
Hammer (1) Hanging Man (1)
Inverted Hammer (1) Shooting Star (1)
Beit H old (1 ) Belt Hold (1)
Engulfing Pattern (2) Engulfing Pattern (2)
H aram i ( 2 ) Harami (2)
Harami Cross (2) Harami Cross (2)
Piercing Line (2) Dark Cloud Cover (2)
Doji Star (2) Doji Star (2)
Meeting Lines (2) Meeting Lines (2)
Three White Soldiers (3 ) _ Three Black Crows (3)
Morning Star (3) Evening Star (3)
Morning Doji Star (3) Evening Doji Star (3)
Abandoned Baby (3) Abandoned Baby (3)
Tri-Star (3) Tri-Star (3)
Breakaway (5) Breakaway (5)
Three Inside Up (3 ) Three Inside Down (3)
Three Outside Up (3) Three Outside Down (3)
Kicking (2) Kicking (2)
Unique Three Rivers Bottom (3) Latter Top (5)
Three Stars in the South (3) Matching High (2)
Concealing Swallow (4) Upside Cap Two Crows (3 )
Stick Sandwich (3) Identical Three Crows (3 )
Homing Pigeon (2) Deliberation (3)
Ladder Bottom (5) Advance Block (3)
Matching Low (2) Two Crows (3)
Bullish Continuation Bearish Continuation

Separating Lines (2) Separating Unes (2)
Rising Three Methods (5) Falling Three Methods (5)
Upside Tasuki Cap (3) Downside Tasuki Gap (3)
Side by Side White Unes (3) Side by Side White Lines (3)
Three Line Strike (4) Three Une Strike (4)
Upside Cap Three Methods (3) Downside Cap Three Methods (3)
On Neck Une (2) On Neck Une (2)
In Neck Une (2) In Neck Line (2)
v _______________ J
332 John J. M urphy
'I!
T ,i'T
1
Hammer + Hanging Man - Inverted Hammer +
Belt H old-
'l|
i1'I
Engulfing + Engulfing - Harami +
i
I+
Harami Cross + Harami Cross -
0
Dark Cloud Cover
John J. M urphy
( ' 'I
Three Black Crows -
Morning Doji star + Evening Doji Star -
t " '
Abandoned Baby + Abandoned Baby - Tri-Star +

336 John J. Murphy
%
'o
Three Black Crows Morning Star +
I
Morning Doji Star + Evening Doji Star -
Phn tch k thu th trng ti chnh 337
0 *|
+ + +
|| *** /
Tri-Star - Breakaway Breakaway -
Si . h
Three Inside Up + Three Outside up +
D 0
t " " I I
Three Outside Down Kicking Kicking
338 John J. Murphy
I
iTe !f
Three Stars in the
I
1
Concealing Baby
Unique Three River South + Swallow +
/l
Icjntical Three
Crows - Deliberation -
I.
Matching Low +
Phn (ch k thut th trng li chnh 339
o D ? l
" v
i l ;
If
Homing Pigeon + Ladder Bottom + Ladder Top -
/
f
1
||
Advance Block - Two Crows- 1separating Unes +
||
0 * * *
111 ||
Rising Three Falling Three
Separating Unes -
Methods + Methods-
John J. M urphy
0
o
f
Side by Side White
Lines +
i ii \ o
, 0 0
Side by Side White Three Une Strike + Three line Strike -
Lines-
i I
Upside Gap Three
I
Downside Cap Three
Methods* Methods* On Neck Line +
Phn tch k thut th trng tl chnh 341
CHNG 13
L thuyt sng Elliott
NN TNG LCH s
Nm 1938, mt chuyn c ta l Nguyn l Sng uc coi l ti liu

tham kho .du 'tin v nhng g m gi y c tn gi l Nguyn l
Sng Elliott. Chuyn ny uc cng b bi Charles J. Collins v
c da trn cng trnh nghin cu gc ca ngui sng lp nguyn l
sng Ralph Nelson (R.N.) Elliott.
Elliott chu nh hung rt nhiu t ] thuyt Dow v Nguyn l sng

cng mang nhiu im tng ng vi n. Trong mt l th vit cho
Collins nm 1934, Elliott tng cp rng ng l ngui s dng dch
v th trng chng khon ca Robert Rhea v s dng cun sch ca
ng v l thuyt Dow. Elliott cho bit nguyn l Sng l mt ph
trng cn thit ca l thuyt Dow.
Nm 1964, hai nm trc khi mt, Elliott thc hin nghin cu

cui cng v nguyn l Sng vi ta Quy lut ca t nhin - b mt
ca v tr (Nature's Law - The Secret o f the Urtverse).
Nhng tng ca Elliott c th chm vo qun lng nu vo

nm 1953 A. Hamilton Bolton khng quyt nh cng b Ph lc Sng
Elliot (Elliott Wave Supplement) trong cun "Nh phn lch tn dng
ngn hng" (Bank Credit Analyst), v Ph lc ny vrc cng b lin
344 John J. Murphy
tc thung nin trong sut 14 nm lin cho n khi ng qua i nm

1967. A.J. Frost sau tip qun Ph lc Sng Elliot v vo nm 1978
hp tc vi Robert Prechter tip tc cho ra i cun Nguyn l Sng
EUiot (Elliott Wave Principle). Hu ht cc th trong chng ny u
c trch dn t cun sch ca Frost v Prechter. Prechter tin thm
mt buc v xut bn cun Cc cng trnh c bn ca R.N. E lliott (The
M ajor Works o f R.N.EUiott) vo nm 1980 tip tc hin Ihc ha cc
cng trnh ny ca Elliott.
NHNG TIN c o BN CA NGUYN L SNG ELL IO T T
Nguyn l Sng c ba khia cnh quan trng c sp xp theo th t

gim dn l m hnh, t sut v thi gian. M hnh tc nhng m hnh
hay nhng cu trc hnh sng l yu t quan trng nht ca l thuyt
ny. Phn tch t sut rt hu ch trong vic xc nh im thoi li v
mc tiu gi bng cch lng mi quan h gia nhng sng khc
nhau. Cui cng, mi quan h thi gian cng tn ti v uc s dng
xc nhn m hnh hay h s sng, nhung khng c nhng ngi
iing h thuyt Elliott nh gi cao tin cy trong vic d on th
tnrng.
L thuyt sng Elliott ln du tin duc p dng vo cc chi s trung

binh quan trng ca th trng chng khon, c bit l ch s trung
bnh Dow Jone Industrial. L thuyt ny cho rng th trng chng
khon i theo ml nhp lin tc 5 sng tng sau d l 3 sng gim. Hnh
13.1 cho thy mt chu k hon chinh. Nu m sng, bn s nhn thy
cn 8 sng to nn mt chu k hon chnh - nm ln v ba xung.
Phn ln ca chu k c nh s t 1 n 5. Sng 1,3,5 itc gi l
sng tin - l nhng sng tng, trong khi 2 v 4 di chuyn nguc li xu
hng tng. Sng 2 v 4 uc gi l sng hiu chnh bi vi chng hiu
chinh sng 1 v 3. Sau khi nh s sng 5 tng, s hiu chinh sng 3
bt u. 3 sng hiu chnh c nh k t a, b v c.
Cng vi s lin lc ca cc sng khc nhau, cp sng cng quan

trng khng km. C nhiu cp d xu hung khc nhau. Elliott phn xu
Hnh 13.1 M hnh c bn (A.J. Frost v Robert Prechter, nguyn i Wave ca

Elliott [Gainesville, GA: New Classic Library, 978], trang 20. Copyright
1978 Frost v Prechter.)
hng lm 9 loi (hay ln) theo th t t mt siu chu k ln ko

di hai trm nm n mt loi vi cp ch trong vi gi. c n nh l d
cp xu hung nh th no th chu k 8 sng c bn vn l lin tc
khng dng.
Mi sng uc chia thnh nhng sng nh hn, v sau chng li

c chia nh thnh nhng sng cn nh hn na. Mi sng t mt
phn ca sng ln ln hn. Hnh 13.2 chng minh nhng mi quan h
ny. Hai sng ln nht l 1 v 2, c th dc chia nh thnh 8 sng nh
hon, ri tip tc uc chia thnh 34 sng nh hn na. Hai sng lm nht
1 v 2 chi l hai sng du tin trong nm sng ca s sng tng ln. Sng
3 ca mc ln k tip sp bt u. 34 sng trong hnh 13.2 urc chia
thnh nhng sng cn nh hn na trong hnh 13.3 thnh 144 sng.
Cc con s uc th hin t 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144 - khng

ch l nhng con s ngu nhin. Chng l mt phn ca dy s
346 John J- Murphy
Hnh 13.2 (Frost v Prechter, trang 21. Copyright 978 bi Frost v

Prechter.)
Fibonacci gip hnh thnh c s ton hc ca l thuyt sng Elliott.

Chng ta s quay li vn ngay sau y. By gi hy nhn vo hnh
13.1-13.3 v ch mt c im rt quan trng ca sng. Bt chp mt
sng cho sn c chia thnh nm hay ba sng u ue xc dnh bi
t s hiu chnh ca sng ln hn k tip. Vi d, trong hinh 13.2, sng
(I), (3) v (5) dc chia thnh nm sng bi vi sng ln k tip bao
hm chng - sng 1 - l mt sng tng. V ang dch chuyn nguc li
vi xu hng, sng (2) v (4) ch c chia thnh ba sng. Nhn k
hn nhng sng hiu chnh (a), (b) v (c) to thnh sng hiu chinh (2).
Hy ch rng hai sng gim - (a) v (c) - uc chia thnh 5 sng.
l do chng di chuyn cng hng vi sng ln hon l sng 2. Sng (b)
ngc li chi gm ba sng, bi vi chng di chuyn nguc vi sng ln 2.
Kh nng xc nh 3 sng v 5 sng ng vai tr rt quan trng

trong vic p dng phng php tip cn ny. Thng tin ny cho nh
Hnh 13.3 (Frost v Prechter. trang 22. Copyright 1978 bi Frost v

Prechter.)
phn tch k thut bit diu g s din ra tip theo. Mt bin ng s

sng kt thc c ngha rng mt phn ca sng ln hn hnh thnh
v cn c nhng sng khc (tr khi n l sng th 5 ca mt sng ln
gm 5 sng). M t trong nhng nguyn tc quan trng nht cn phi ghi
nh l trong 5 sng khng bao gi xut hin mt s hiu chinh.
Trong mt th trng du c gi ln, nu t suy gim s sng xut hin
thi n chi l sng u tin ca 3 sng gim (a-b-c) v cn nhng sng
gim khc na. Trong mt th trng u C gi xung, s tng gi ba
sng c tip ni bng s hi phc xu hung gim. S phc hi nm
sng cnh bo mt vn dng tng gi quan trng v c kh nng chi l
sng du tin ca mt xu hung tng mi.
M i LIN H GIA L THUYT SNG E L LIO T T V L

THUYT DOW
Hy ni v mi lin h gia tng ca Elliot v nm sng tng v ba

k tng ca Dow trong th trung u c gi ln. R rng l tng v
348 John J. Murphy
3 sng tng i cng 2 sng hiu chinh ca Elliott tng thch vi l

thuyt Dow. R rng l chu nh hng t l thuyt Dow, tuy nhin,
Elliott tin rng ng vt ra khi l thuyt Dow v ci tin n. Tht
th v lu n tc ng ca khi nim bin c di vi hai hc gi
ny (rong vic hnh thnh cc l thuyt ca mnh. Dow $0 snh nhng
xu hng chnh, cp trung v nh trong th trng vi nhng dt thy
triu, sng v nhng sng ln tn ca bin c. Elliott th thch nhng
cm triu xung v dng trong nhng bi vit ca minh v dt tn
cho l thuyt ca mnh l nguyn l sng.
SNG H IU CHNH
T u n gi, chng ta ni nhiu v sng xung lng trong xu

hng chnh. Ngay by gi, chng ta s ni v sng hiu chnh. Nhn
chung, sng hiu chnh thng khng uc xc nh mt cch r rng
v cng kh d on hn. Tuy nhin, mt iu chc chn l sng hiu
chinh khng bao gi din ra trong nm sng. Sng hiu chinh l ba
sng ch khng bao gi l nm sng (tr trng hp tam gic). Chng
ta s tho lun v ba loi sng hiu chinh hnh zic zc, mt phng v
tam gic.
H nh zic zc
Zic zc l m hnh hiu chinh ba sng, nguc vi xu hng chinh, b

tch thnh mt chui 5-3-5. Hnh 13.4 v 13.5 cho thy mt s hiu
chinh hnh zic xc ca th trung u co gi ln, trong khi hnh 13.6 v
13.7 li th hin cho s hi phc ca th trng u c gi xung. C
th thy uc sng trung B ri xung mt khong ngn trong phm vi
du sng A v sng c v vut ln trn khi on cui ca sng A.
Mt bin th khc ca hnh zic zc l zic zc di trong hnh 13.8.

Bin th ny i khi li xut hin trong nhng m hnh hiu chinh ln.
V l do ny m nhng m hnh zic zc 5-3-5 thng li xen k vi m
hnh a-b-c.
Hnh 13.4 M hnh zic zc (5-3-5) Hnh 13.5 M hnh zic zc (5-3-5)
ca thi trung u c gi ln. (Frvst ca th trng u c gi ru (Frost
v Prechter, trang 36. Bn quyn nm v Prechter, trang 36. Bn quyn nm
1978 ca Fm st v Prechter.) 1978 ca Frvst v Prechter.)
Hnh 13.6 M hnh zic zc (5-3-5) Hnh 13.7 M hnh zic zc (5-3-5)
ca th trng u c gi xung. ca th trng u c gi xung.
(Frost v Prechter, trang 36. Bn (Frost v Preehter, trang 36. Bn
quyn nm 1978 ca F rost v quyn nm 1978 ca Frost v
Prechter.) Prechter.)
350 John J. Murphy
Hnh 13.8 M hnh zic zuc i. (Frost v Prechter, trang 36. Bn quyn nm
1978 ca Frost v Prechter.)
H nh m tphng
Cch phn bit uc s hiu chinh mt phng vi m hnh hiu chinh

zic zc l mt phng lun theo sau m hnh 3-3-5. Trong hnh 13.10 v
13.12, sng A l 3 ch khng phi 5. Nhn chung th hnh mt phng
cho thy tn hiu cng c hn l hiu chnh v biu th s vng chc
c th trng. Hnh 13.9 v 13.12 l v d cho nhng hnh mt phng
thng thung. Chng hn trong nhng th trng gi tng th sng B hi
phc ln trn nh ca sng A khng nh s vng chc ca th
trung. Sng cui cng l sng c kt thc ngay ti hoc chi ngay di
y sng A trong khi hnh zic zc th s roi su xung di im .
Hiu chinh mt phng c hai dng bin th bt quy tc. Hnh 13.13-
13.16 l dng th nht. Luu l trong vi d v th trng u c gi ln
(Xem hnh 13.13 v 13.14), nh ca sng B cao hn inh sng A v
sng c vt khi phm v y ca sng A.
S xut hin mt dng khc na khi sng B t mc inh ca A,
nhung sng c li roi xung bng vi y ca A. Hin nhin l m hnh
ny mang n g h r mt thi trng tng gi vng chc hom. Ta c th xem

v d v bin th ny trong hnh 13 17-13.20 vi th trng u c gi
n v th trng u co gi xung.
Hnh 13.9 M tphng th trieng u Hnh 13.10 Mt phang th trng

c gi ln (3-3-5), m hnh hu chnh u c gi ln (3-3-5), m hnh hiu
thng thng. (Frost v Prechter, chnh thng thng. Frost v
trang 38. jn quyn nm 1978 ca Prechter, trang 38. Bn quyn nm
Ftvst v Prechter.) 1978 ca Frost v Prechter.)
Hnh 13*11 Mt phng th trng Hnh 13.12 Mt phng th trng

du c gi xung, m hnh hiu chnh u c gi xung (3-3-5), m hnh
thng thng. (Frost v Prechter, hiu chnh thng hirng. (Frost v
trang 38. Bn quyn nm 1978 ca Prechter, trang 38. Bn quyn nm
Frost v Prechter.) 1978 ca Frost v Prechter.)
352 John J. M urphy
Hnh 13.13 M t phng th trung Hnh 13.114 M t phng th trung

u c gi ln (3-3-5), m hnh hii u c gi ln (3-3-5), m hnh hiu
chinh bt quy tc. (Frost v Prechtei ; chnh bt quy tc. (Frost v Prechter,
trang 39. Bn quyn nm 1978 ci trang 39. Bn quyen nm 1978 ca
Frost v p rechter.)_ Frost v Prechter.)
Hnh 13.15 M t phng th trn Hnh 13.16 M t phng th trng

u c gi xuong (3-35), m hin u c gi xuong (3-3-5), m hnh
hiu chnh bt quy tac. (Frost V hiu chnh bt quy tc. (Fn>st v
Prechter, trang 39. Bn quyen ni Precher, trang 39. Bn quyert nm
1978 ca Fm st v Prechter.) 1978 ca Frost v Prechier.)
Hnh 13.17 Mt phng th trng Hnh 13.18 Mt phng th trng

u c gi ln (3-3-5), m hnh hiu u c gi n(3-3-5), m hnh hiu
chnh bat quy tc o chiu. (Frost v chnh bt quy tc o chiu. (Frost v
Prechter, trang 40. Bn quyn nm Prechter, trang 40. Bn quyn nm
1978 ca Frost v Prechter) 1978 ca Frost v Prechter.)
Hnh 13.19 Mt phng th trng Hnh 13.20 M t phng th trng

u c gi xung (3-3-5), m hnh au c gi xung (3-3-5), m hnh
hiu chnh bt qy tc o chiu, hiu chh bt quy tc o chiu.
(Frost v Pnechter, trang 40. Bn (Frost v Prechter, trang 40. Bn
quyn nm 978 ca Frost v quyn nm 978 ca Frost v
Precher.) Prechter.)
M hnh tam gic
Tam gic ch xut hin ti sng th t v ngay trc vn ng cui cng

theo chiu hng ca xu hng chnh. (Chng cng xut hin ti sng
b trong m hnh hiu chnh a-b-c.) V nguyn nhn , trong mt xu
hng tng, chng ta c th ni rng tam gic l biu hin ca c th
trng u c gi ln ln th trng u c gi xung. Chng c hiu
l tng gi khi biu th s hi phc ca xu hng tng. Ngc li, a
hiu rng gim gi nu chng th hin kh nng t nh sau mt sng
tng. (Xem hnh 13.2!)
354 John J. M urphy

Hnh 13.21 Tam gic sng hiu chnh (tam gic nm ngang). (Frost v
Prechter, trang 43. Bn quyn nm 1978 ca Frost v Prechter.)
Cch din gii ca Elliott v tam gic tcmg t nh cch gii thch
truyn thng trc , nhung c chnh xc cao hn. Nh ni
trong Chong 6, tam gic thung l mt m hnh tip din. Tam gic
ca EUiott l mt m hnh cng c khng r xu hng, c 5 sng trong
mi sng gm 3 sng nh. Elliott chia thnh 4 loi tam gic khc
nhau - tng, gim, i xng v m rng - duc gii thiu trong
Chucmg 6. Hnh 13.21 th hin 4 dng bin th trong c xu hng tng
v gim.
V di khi cc m hnh th trong nhng hp ng hng ha tung

lai khng hnh thnh hon chinh nh th trung chng khon, nn
khng c g bt thung khi m tam gic trong th trng tng lai li
chi c 3 sng thay vi 5. (Tuy nhin, cn luu rng mt tam gic i hi
phi c c 4 im - 2 pha ln v 2 pha di d c th v c hai
ung xu hng hi t.) L thuyt sng Elliott cng cho rng sng th
nm v sng cui-cng-trong-tam gic i khi li ph v ung xu
hng ca chnh n, to ra mt tn hiu ngy to trc khi thc s bt
u mt c ph v theo hung ban u.
Cch do lung sng th nm v sng cui cng ca Elliott sau khi

mt tam gic hnh thnh v c bn l ging vi cch s dng th kinh
in, l d on th trng s bin dng mt khong tucmg ng vi
phn rng nht ca tam gic (chiu cao). Ngoi ra cng cn phi luu
thi gian hnh thnh nn nh hoc y cui cng. Theo Prechter th
inh ca tam gic (ni hai ng xu hng gp nhau) thung nh du
thi im hnh thnh sng th nm cui cng.
QUY LUT LUN PHIN

Nu pht biu mt cch tng qut hn, quy tc ny cho bit th trng
khng bao gi hnh dng hai ln nh nhau trong mt dng. Nu xut
hin trc th mt dng y hoc dinh s khng xut hin ln na.
Quy tc lun phin khng cho chng ta bit chnh xc chuyn g s din
ra ra nhung li cho ta bit chuyn g khng th xy ra. Neu p dng vo
nhng trng hp xc nh, n thng s bo hiu dng m hnh hiu
356 John J. Murphy
Hnh 13.22 Quy tc lun phin. (Frost v Prechter. trang 50. Bn quyn nm
1978 ca Frost v Prechier.)
chinh trong tng lai. Cc sng hiu chnh thung c xu th xen k

nhau. Ni cch khc, nu sng h_i chnh 2 l m hnh a-b-c n gin
th sng 4 s l m hnh phc - mt tam gic chng hn. Ngc li, nu
sng 2 l sng phc th sng 4 s i sng on. Hnh 13.22 l mt vi d.
V KNH GI
Mt kha cnh khc ca l thuyt sng chnh l cch s dng knh gi,
hy nh li nhng gi chng ta ni v knh gi trong Chung 4.
Elliott dng knh gi t uc mc tiu gi v xc nhn vic m
sng. Mt khi xu hng tng uc hnh thnh thi knh gi ban u s
c v t ung xu hng tng c bn ni cc y ca sng 1 v 2.
Mt ung song song s uc v t nh sng 1 nhu trong hinh 13.23.
Nh vy, c xu hung tng nm trong phm vi hai ung xu hung .
Nu sng 3 bt u tin nhanh vut qua ng xu hng bn trn,

ta cn v li cc ng xu hng ni inh sng 1 v y ca sng 2 nh
trong hnh 13.23. Knh gi cui cng uc v bn di hai sng hiu
chnh 2 v 4 thung nm bn trn nh ca sng 3 nh trong hnh 13.24.
Nu sng 3 vng chc mt cch bt thng hoc uc m rng thi
ung xu hung bn trn phi uc v t inh ca sng 1. Sng th s
Hnh 13.23
Knh gi c v
m i (Frost v
Prechter, trang 62,
Bn quyn nm
1978 ca Frost v
Prechter)
Hnh 13.24
Knh gi cui cng
(Frost v Prechter,
trang 63, Bn quyn
nm 1978 ca Frost
v Prechter)
c th tin gn ng bin trn ca knh xu hng trc khi kt thc.

N eu m uon v cc ung bin ca knh xu hung th, ta nn s dng
th bn l-ga chung vi th so hc.
S N G 4 V I T C C H L K H U vc H T R
Trc khi kt thc phn ny v m hnh sng cng cc ch dn, chng
ta cn bit v tm quan trng ca sng 4 nh m t khu vc h tr trong
358 John J. Murphy
thi tmdng du co gi xuong. Sau 5 song tng ket thc va xu hung giani
bt dau, thj tmdng du co gi xuong se khng roi xuong thp hon song
thii tu tnrdrc d mt mc d nho hon, tue l song thr tu gn nht hinh
thnh trong theri gian gi tng truc do. Quy tc ny cflng co ngoai le
nhung thung thi dy ca sng thr tu kirn hm thi trung du co gi
xuong. Thng tin ny hihi dung trong viec dat duoc muc ticu gi gim
cuc dai.
CHUI FIBONACCI L N tN TNG CA NGUYfcN LY SNG
Trong cun Lut Tu nhien (Nature's Law), Elliott da chi ra rang nen
tng ton hoc ca nguyen ly sng chinh l dy so duoc Leonardo
Fibonacci pht minh vo the ky 15. Dy so d d duoc tha nhan v
thung duoc goi l d y Fibonacci. Dy ny gm cc con
s l,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144 v tiep tue den v cuc.
Dy ny c rt nhieu dc tinh th vi, trong so d l moi lien he gn

nhu l ben vng gia cc con so.
1. Tong ca bat ky hai so lien tiep no cng bng con so Ion hon tiep
theo. Vi du, 3 + 5 blng 8, 5 + 8 bng 13,...
2. Ty so ca bt ky mt so no vi so Ion hon tiep theo deu bng

.618, sau 4 con so du tien. Vi du, 1/1 l 1,00; V.'i l 0,5; 2/3 l
0,67; 3/5 l 0,60; 5/8 l 0,625, 8/13 l 0,615; 13/21 l 0,619 v
tiep tue. Ch y rng nhCmg gi tri phn so du tien dao dng tren
dui mc 0,618 vi bien d hep. Ngoai ra, cc gi tri 1,00; 0,50;
0,67 cng cn duoc luu y v chng se duoc nhc den nhieu hon
trong phan phn tich he so v thoi li theo ty le phn trm.
3. Ty so gia m t so bt ky vi so nh hon ben canh deu bng

khong 1,618 hoc nghich do 0,618. Vi du, 13/8 bng 1,625;
21/13 bang 1,615; 34/21 bng 1,619. So cng cao thi ty so cng
tien gn gi trj 0,618 v 1,618.
4. Ty so gia cc so xen ke gn bng 2,618 hoc nghjch do ca n,

0,382. Vi du 13/34 bng 0,382; 34/13 bng 2,615.
CC H S FIBONACCI V s THOI LI
Chng ta tng bit rng l thuyt sng c ba kha cnh: dng sng,
h s v thi gian. Phn quan trng nht v dng sng c ni n.
Vy by gi chng ta s chuyn sang cc h so Fibonacci v s thoi
li. Nhng mi quan h ny u c th uc p dng cho c gi c v
thi gian, d h s Fibonacci (tc coi l ng tin cy hn. Trong phn
sau, chng ta s tho lun v kha cnh thi gian.
Truc tin, hy xem v d hnh 13.1 v 13.3 thy rng m hnh

sng c bn lun lun t phn thnh nhng con s Fibonacci. Mt chu
k y bao gm 8 sng - nm tng v ba gim -tt c cc con s du
thuc dy Fibonacci. Hai ln phn chia na s sinh ra 34 v 144 sng -
cng thuc dy Fibonacci. Tuy nhin, c s ton hc chui Fibonacci
ca l thuyt sng d vut ra khi vic m sng n thun. C mt s
cu hi v mi quan h t l gia nhng sng khc nhau, v sau dy l
nhng h s Fibonaccigrtsdng thng dng nht:
1. Mt trong ba sng xung lung i khi li uc ni di. Hai sng

cn li bng nhau v thi gian v ln. Nu sng 5 uc ni di,
sng 1 v 3 c th s bng nhau. Nu sng 3 c ni di, sng 1
v 5 c xu th bng nhau.
2. Mc tiu ti thiu ca inh sng 3 c tnh bng cch nhn chiu

di sng 1 vi 1,618 v cng tch vi y ca sng 2.
3. Mc tiu ti da v ti thiu ca nh sng s c tnh bng tch

ca sng 1 vi 3,3236 (2x1,618) v ln lt cng tch vo gi
tr ca dinh hoc y ca sng 1.
4. Khi sng 1 v 3 bng nhau th sng 5 d on s uc ni di,

mc tiu gi uc xc nh bng khong cch t y ca sng 1
n inh sng 3, nhn vi 1,1618 v cng tch vo y ca
sng 4.
5. i vi sng hiu chinh, trong m hnh hiu chinh zic zc 5-3-

5 thng thng, sng c thng bng vi chiu di ca sng a.
360 John J.. Murphy
6. Mt cch khc de xc dinh chieu dai sng c l nhn 0,618 vai

chieu di ca song a v lay day ca sng a trir tich do.
7. Trong mo hinh hieu chinh mat phng 3-3-5, khi song b dat hoc
vuot khi dinh sng a thi sng c se a khong 1,618 chieu di sng a.
8. Trong m hinh tarn gic doi xumg, moi sng ke liep deu co moi
lien he vi sng truac mot gi tri 0,618.
Thoi li theo ty le phan trm Fibonacci

Nhng he so ni tren gip ta xc dinh duac muc tieu gi trong c sng
toi v sng hieu chinh. Mt cch khc cung diroc sir dung de xc dinh
muc tieu gi l sir dung thoi li ty le phn trm. Nhng con so thircmg
duoc dng de phn tich thoi li l 61,8% (tlnrcVng duac lm trn thnh
62%), 38% v 50%. Hy nhr lai Chuong 4, trong d ni rng thi tudng
thircmg thoi li so vi nhimg bien dng truc d mot ty le phn trm
c the du don duac - vcri T ih n g rniic plio bien l 33%, 50% v 67%.
Chuoi Fibonacci loc nhng con so ny lai. Trong mt xu hung vng
chc, mc thoi li nh nht l khong 38%. Trong mt xu hung yu
hon, mc thoi li theo phn trm toi da l 62%. (Xem hinh 13.25 v
13.26)
N hud ni a phan du, cc he so Fibonacci chi dat gn 0,618 sau 4

so du tien. Ba ty so du l 1/1 (100%), Zi (50%) v 2/3 (66%). Nhieu
ban doc khng biet rng mc thoi li 50% pho bien thuc cht l thoi
li 2/3. Mt su thoi li hon ton (100%) ca mt thi tnromg du co
gi len hoc gi xuong truc d cng dnh du mt khu vuc ho trg hoc
khng cu quan trong.
Tri pblu Chinh ph 1600 (TR 1600)
Thoi li Fibonacci
Hnh 13.25 Ba ng ngang l cc mc thoi li 38% , 50% v 62% uc xc

nh t mc y nm 198 n mc nh 1993 ca Tri phiu Chinh ph. S
hiu chnh gi tri phiu nm 1994 ngng ti tig thoi li 38%.
Hnh 13.26 Ba ng t phn trm Fbonacci c o t mc v nm

994 ca gi Tri phiu en nc nh u nm 1996. Gi Tri phiu c u
chnh n dng 62%.
362 John J. Murphy
MC TIU T H I GIAN FIBONACCI
Tuy chng ta khng nhc nhiu n kha cnh thi gian trong phn
tch sng, nhung mi quan h v thi gian Fibonacci vn tn ti, chi l
c im kh d on ca n khin nhng ngui s dng l thuyt
Elliott coi n l khia cnh t quan trng nht ca l thuyt ny. Mc tiu
thi gian ny uc tinh t nhng inh v y quan trng. Trn d th
hng ngy, cc nh phn tch m s phin giao dch t im chuyn
i quan trng v k vng cc y v dinh tung lai s xut hin ti
nhng ngy Fibonacci - ngy th 13,21,34,55 hoc 89. C th s dng
k thut ny trong th hng tun, hng thng v hng nm! Trn
th tun, nh phn tch chn mt dinh hoc dy quan trng v tm kim
mc tiu thi gian trong tun thuc dy Fibonacci. (Xem hnh 13.27 v
13.28)
Hnh 13.27 Mc tiu thi gian Fibonacci c xc nh trong khong thi

gian l y nm 1981 ca Tri phiu Chinh ph. iu ny c th trng hp.
nhung 4 mc liu thi gian Fibonacci gn nht (cc thanh ng) trng vi thi
im thay i gi quan trng.
Hnh 13.28 Mc tiu thi gian Fibonacci trong khong thi gian t y nm
1982 ca ch so Dow. Ba thanh ng cui cng trng vi thi im th trng
chng khon gim gi - 1987. 1990 v 994. K t mc y ca nm 1982,
nh nm 1987 ton ti trong 13 nm - mt con s thuc dy Fbonacci.
s KT HP BA KHA CNH CA L THUYT s n g

Mt tnh hung l tng s din rakhi m hnh sng, phn tch h s v
mc tiu thi gian cng xut hin. Gi s m t nghin cu cho thy rng
khi hon chnh, sng th nm s bng 1,618 ln khong cch t y
sng 1 n nh sng 3, v thi gian tnh t u xu hng l 13 tun
tnh t y trc v 34 tun t nh trc . Tip tc, gi s sng
th nm ko di 21 ngy th kh nng sp xut hin mt nh quan
trng.
Khi nghin cu th gi chng khon v cc th trng tng lai,

chng ta s nhn ra nhng mi quan h thi gian Fibonacci. Tuy nhin,
cc mi quan h ny li rt a dng. Mc tiu thi gian Fibonacci c
th c tnh t nh n nh, nh n y, y n y v y n
nh, nhng moi quan h ny s c xc minh sau khi xy ra s kin.
Khng phi lc no cng c th bit r mi quan h no dng cho mt
xu hung no.
364 John J. Murphy
L TH UY T SNG EL L IO T c P DNG C H O TH
TRNG CHNG KHON V T H TRNG HNG HA
C nhng khc bit trong vic p dng l thuyt sng vo th trung

chng khon so vi th trng hng ha. V d, sng 3 c xu hung ni
di trong chng khon, nhung trong th trng hng ha th l sng 5.
Mt quy tc bt di bt dch ca th trng chng khon nhung khng
phi ca th trng hng ha, d l sng 4 khng bao gi chng ln
sng 1. (Trn th tng lai c th xut hin nhng c ph v trong
ngy). i khi, th ca th trung tin mt c m hnh r rng hn
so vi th trung tuomg lai. Vic s dng nhng m hnh tip din trong
th tning hng ha tuong lai d gy ra nhng nhm ln nh hung n
nhng m hnh Elliott di hn.
S khc bit quan trng nht gia hai th trng l s tng gi trong
th trng hng ha c th b kni hm, ngha l nhmg mc cao t
duc khi gi tng khng phi lc no cng cao hn mc cao tnrc.
Trong th trung hng ha c 5 sng hon chnh, c kh nng xu hung
tng s thp hn mc cao truc . Trong giai on t nm 1980 n
1981, nhng nh quan trng ca nhiu th trung hng ha tht bi
trong vic vut ra khi nhng inh quan trng ca 7,8 nm v trc.
Vi t cch l mt s so snh cui cng gia hai lnh vc, dng nh
cc m hnh sng hon ho ca th trng hng ha duc sinh ra t c
ph v mt gc ni di trong di hn.
Cn nh rng l thuyt sng vn uc p dng cho th trung chng

khon chung v n khng my hiu qu trong mt th trng ring l.
ng thi n cng khng hot dng tt trong nhng th trung giao
dch tng lai vng v v l thuyt ny ch yu da trn nn tng tm
l s ng. Vi t cch l mt minh ha, vng l cng c hon ho cho
vic phn tch sng do tnh ph bin ca n.
TM LC
Chng ta hy cng tm lc nhng yu t quan Irng ca l thuyt

sng v t n trong mt vin cnh thch hp.
Phn lch k thut th trng ti chnh 365
1. Mt chu k th trng du co gi ln hon chinh bao gm 8 sng,

5 sng tng i truc 3 sng gim.
2. Mt xu hung c chia thnh 5 sng theo hung pht trin ca
xu hung ln hn.
3. S hiu chnh lun lun gm ba sng.
4. Hai loi hiu chinh cm gin l zic zac (S-3-S) v mt phang (3-3-5).
5. M hnh tam gic thirmg l sng th t v lun tun xut hin
truc sng cui cng. Tam gic cng c th l sng hiu chnh B.
6. Sng c th c ni di thnh sng di hn v c c th chia
nh thnh nhng sng ngn hn.
7. i khi mt trong nhng sng xung lng s c ni di. Hai
sng cn li s bng nhau v thi gian v d ln.
8. Chui Fibonacci l c s ton hc ca L thuyt sng Elliott.
9. S Lng shg cng-tun tlieo theo chui Fibonacci.
10. H so Fibonacci v s thoi li uc dng xc nh mc tiu
gi. Mc thoi li thung thy l 62%, 50% v 38%.
11. Quy tc lun phin cho ta bit mt s kin khng din ra hai ln
lin tip.
12. Th trng u c gi xung c th s khng ri xung dui y
ca sng th l nrc (l.
13. Sng 4 khng chii in sng 1 (khng p dng cho th trng
tng lai).
14. L thuyt sng Elliott bao gm m hnh sng, h s v thi gian
xp (heo trnh t quan trng.
15. L thuyt ny vn c p dng cho th trng chng khon
chung v khng hiu qu cho mt th trng ring l.
16. L thuyt ny c hiu qu nht cho th trung hng ha c tinh
ph bin cao, nh vng chng hn.
17. S khc bit ch yu trong cc nhm hng ha l s tn ti ca
th trng gi ln.
CHNG 14
Chu k thi gian
GII THIU
Mi quan tm ca chng ta cho n im ny lun l s bin ng gi
m khng nhc nhiu n vai tr ca yu t thi gian trong vn d
on. .Vn' d thi gian hin din trong hu ht nhng tho lun ca
chng ta v phn tch k thut, nhung ch nhn urc s quan tm th
yu. Trong chng ny, chng ta s tm hiu qu trnh d on qua cch
nhn ca cc nh phn tch chu k - nhng ngi tin rng chu k thi
gian ng vai tr ch cht trong vic nhn nh v sao th trng ti di
ln hoc i xung. Trong quy trnh ny, chng ta s b sung tm quan
trng ca thi gian vo danh sch khng ngng tng cc cng c k
thut. Thay v t hi th tning i theo hng no v i bao xa, chng
ta s cht vn rng khi no n s dn d hay thm chi l khi no thi bin
ng s bt u.
Hy xem th thanh hng chun hng ngy. Ct dc l thang gi.

Nhng ch l 50% s d liu cn thit. Ct nm ngang l thang thi
gian. Chnh v th, th thanh thc s l th gi v thi gian. Tuy
nhin, nhiu nh giao dch ch tp trung vo d liu gi m qun i yu
t thi gian. Khi nghin cu m hnh, chng ta bit rng c mt mi
quan h gia thi gian hnh thnh m hnh v tim nng ca vn ng
th trng theo sau. Chng hn nh mt ngung khng c hay h tr
hoc mt ung xu hung cng duy tr lu th ben vng cng cao.
368 John J. Murphy
ing trung b m di ng phi tinh trong khong thi gian thch hp.
Thm chi khi do lung ch bo dao ng, ta cng cn bit n o lung
bao nhiu ngy. Trong chung tnrc, chng ta cp n tnh hu
dng ca mc tiu thi gian Fibonacci.
R rng, mt kha cnh no , tt c cc giai on trong phn tch

k thut u ph thuc vo s xem xt v thi gian. Tuy nhin, nhng
cn nhc ny khng phi lc no cng duc p dng mt cch ph hp.
Do m chu k thi gian th hin im mnh ca n. Thay v ng
vai tr th yu hay vai tr h tr trong cc vn ng ca th trng, chu
k thi gian uc cc nh phn tch chu k xem l yu t quyt nh
trong th trung u C gi ln v gi xung. Khng chi thi gian l yu
t ni bt m tt c nhng C4& c k thut khc cng c ci thin
khi kt hp vi chu k. V d, ung trang bnh di ng v chi bo dao
dng uc toi u ha khi ua vo chu k chnh. Phn tch xu hung
cng c th chinh xc hem so vi phn tch chu k nh xc nh uc
ng xu hng bn vng. Phn tch m hnh gi cng c hiu qu hn
nu kt hp vi cc inh v y ca chu k. Bng cch s dng "ca
s thi gian", vn dng gi c th c chn lc bng cch b qua
nhng ng thi khng lin quan v t trng tm vo nhng thi im
xut hin nh v y chu k quan trng.
CHU K
Cun sch hp dn nht v chu k m ti tng c l cun Nhng

ng lc b i n lm ny sinh s kin (The m ysterious forces that trigger
event) ca hai tc gi Edward R. Dewey, mt trong nhng nh phn tch
chu k lin phong v Og Mandino. Hng nghn chu k tung chng
khng h lin quan li tn ti dc lp ko di hng trm nm, c nhng
trng hp c hng nghn nm. Mi th t chu k 9,6 nm ca n c
hi n Dng n chu k 22,20 nm ca cc cuc chin tranh th
gii t nm 1415 n 1930 u c theo di v ghi li. Chu k trung
bnh ca vt en mt tri k t nm 1S27 l 11,11 nm. Nhiu chu k
kinh t, gm chu k hot dng bt dng sn 18,33 nm n chu k th
trng chng khon 9,2 nm u uc trnh by. (Xem hnh 14.1 v 14.2)
Phn tch k thut th trng ti chnh
H n h 14.1 Chu k 22,2 nm ca vt en mt tri. Hn hn thng din m 2 nm sau khi vt en bt u t nm 970, v ln tip
theo l gia thp nin 90 ca th k 20. Yn th, ng gch chm l ng chu k l tng, cn ng k lin l trn thc t.
(Courtesy o f the Foundation fo r the Study o f Cycles, Wayne, PA.)
I
o
TH 22-1 / 5 Ymmr C y c l e in I n t e r n a t i o n a l B a t t l e s , 1415-1 50
1U50 1500
I I I I I I I I I r
1700 1750 180 0
John J. M urphy
1
the 2 1 4 /5 y r . c y c l In In t r n t io n aI b c t t t I n x t dum t o t o p In 19b2
Hnh 14.2 Nm 1982 l nh chu k 22.3 nm ca chin anh th g i i. yn th , cmggch chm l ng chu k l tng, ng
k lin l s liu t thc t. (Courtesy o f the Foundation fo r the Study o f Cycles, Wayne, PA.)
Dewey a ra hai kt lun gy ngc nhin. Th nht, nhiu chu k

ca cc hin tng c v khng lin quan nhau li c khong thi gian
tng t. Trong trang 188 ca cun sch, Dewey lit k 37 v d v chu
k 9,6 nm, bao gm n su bm New Jersey, by ch si
Canada, din tch trng la m M v gi bng vi M . Ti sao
nhng hot ng khng lin quan li th hin nhng chu k nh nhau?
Khm ph th hai nhng chu k tng t ny hot ng ng thi,

tc l i chiu cng mt lc. Hnh 4.3 th hin 12 v d khc nhau
v chu k 18,2 nm gm kt hn, nhp c, v gi chng khon M .
Dewey to bo rt ra kt lun rng c g trong v tr to nn
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t 1 -r.....1...........1..........hu t..... I.........LmmmmIi.......... - 1-........*....... *
1880 1900 1920 1940 i960 1980
Hnh 14.3 Chu k 18.2 nm ca cc s kin. (Ngun: Dewey, Edward R.,

Cycles: ng lc bi n thc y s kin (New York: Manor Book, 1973.)
372 J o h n J. M u r p h y
nhng chu k ny, dng nh l c mt mm mng no trong v tr

gii thch cho nhng chu k hin din trong qu nhiu lnh vc ca di
sng con ngi.
Nm 1941, Dewey thnh lp T chc nghin cu chu k

(Foundation for Study o f Cycles, 900w.Valley Rd., Suite 502, Wayne,
Pa 19087). yl t chc lu i nht v n u trong lnh vc nghin
cu chu k. T chc ny pht hnh tp ch Chu k (Cycles) gii thiu
cc nghin cu trong nhiu lnh vc bao gm kinh t hc v kinh
doanh. T chc ny cng ban hnh mt bo co hng thng c tn l
Cycles Projections - n bn p dng nhng phn tch chu k vo chng
khon, hng ha, bt ng sn v nn kinh t.
K hi nim c bn ve chu k
Nm 1970, J.M. Hurst vit cun Snhim mu ca vic xc nh thi

im giao dch chng khon-" (The- Profit-M agic o f Stock Transaction
Timing). Mc d ch yu lin quan n cc chu k trong th trng
chng khon, nhung cun sch ny i din cho mt trong nhng ti
liu hay nht tng c xut bn v l thuyt chu k v duc khuyn
ngh nn c. Nhng th sau y uc trch t tc phm ca Hurst.
u tin, hy xem chu k l g v tho lun v ba c im chnh

ca n. Hnh 14.4 th hin hai ln lp li ca mt chu k gi. y chu
k c gi l mng (trough) v nh l chm (crest). Hy ch hai
sng y c o t y n y. Nh phn tich chu k thch o chiu
di ca chu k l nhng im thp nht vi nhau. Ta cng c th o t
cc dinh nhung chng uc xem l khng n nh v khng ng tin
cy nh y. Chnh v th, ta thng o im bt du v kt thc ca
mt sng chu k ti mt y nh trn hnh.
Chu k c 3 c im l bin , thi gian, pha. Bin l chiu

cao ca sng nh trong hnh 14.5 v uc biu din qua ng -la M,
xu hoc im. Thi gian ca mt sng nh trn hnh 14.6 l thi gian
gia hai y. Thi gian trong v d l 20 ngy. Pha l thi gian xc nh
Hnh 14.4 Hai chu k ca mt sng gi. Mt sng n kt hp thnh ng thi

gi chng khon v hng ha. Chi hai chu k ca sng ny c th hin trn
hnh, nttmg bn thn sng ni di v nh v tri v phi. Nhng sng nh vy
c ip (ti p ti cc chu k. Kt qu. mt khi xc nh c sng th c thxc
(tnh gi tr ca chng bt k thi im no trong qu kh hoc lng lai.
c dient ny mang li kh nang d on ng thi gi chng khon.
mt y. Hnh 14.7 th hin s chnh ch pha gia hai sng. Bi vi c

nhiu chu k xut hin cng mt c nn pha cho php nh phn tch
tm hiu mi quan h gia nhng chiu di chu k khc nhau. Pha cng
duc s dng c xc nh ngy ca y chu k cui cng. V d, nu
mt chu k 20 ngy t y 10 ngy trc, th ngy xut hin y chu
k tip theo c th c d on. Mt khi bicn , thi gian v pha ca
mt chu k c xc nh, trn l thuyt, ta c th d on uc n
trong tng lai. Gi s chu k vn bt bin, n c thc c s dng
d on nh v y trong tng lai. l c im cn bn nht ca
cch tip cn chu k.
374 John J. Murphy
Hinh 14.5 Bien do cua song. Tren hinh, song co bien do 10 d-la (tu -5 den
+15). Bien d luon duoc do tvrdinh den day song.
Hinh 14.6 Thai gian ca mot song. Tren hinh, song co thoi gian 20 ngy, duoc
tinh tu day nay den day ke tiep. Thai gian ciing co the duoc do tuang tu gia
hai dinh, nhung trvng nhng song gi thi day song duoc xac djnh no hem dinh
song vi ly do se duoc noi den phan sau. Vi vy, thoi gian ca song gia thuong
duoc do tit day den day.
Hnh 14.7 S chnh lch pha gia hai sng l 6 ngy. S chnh lch pha c
o gia hai y sng bi v trong sng gi th y l im d xc nh hn.
Cc nguyn tc chu k
Hy tim hiu mi s nguyn tc c bn ca trit l chu k. Bn nguyn

tc quan trng nht l Nguyn tc Cng gp, Hi ha, ng b v Cn
i.
Nguyn tc Cng gp cho bit tt c cc vn ng gi chi n thun

l tng tt cc chu k hot ng. Hnh 14.8 m t m hnh gi ti inh
uc hnh thnh bng cch cng hai chu k khc nhau ti y li vi
nhau. c bit, hy ch hnh dng ca hai nh trong sng hn hp
c. L thuyt chu k ni rng tt c cc m hnh gi u uc hnh thnh
bi s tc ng qua li ca t hai chu k khc nhau tr ln. Chng ta
s quay li vn ny sau. Nguyn tc Tng cng gip chng ta hiu
thu mu cht ca d on theo chu k. Gi s mi vn ng gi chi l
tng chiu di nhng chu k khc nhau. Tip tc, nhng chu k ring
l ny c th c tch ra v c do lng. Gi s mi chu k s tip
tc bin ng bt thung cho n tng lai. Sau chi cn duy tr mi
chu k lin tc n tuong lai v cng li vi nhau cu thnh xu hng
gi tng lai. chinh l l thuyt chu k.
Nguyn tc Hi ha pht biu rng cc sng ln cn thung lin h

vi nhau theo cp s 2. V d, nu chu k 20 ngy xut hin thi chu k
376 John J. Murphy
Hlnh 14.8 Sucpng gpp ca 2 song. Duong gach cham the hien rang tai moi
diem thin gian, gia tri ca song A dupe cpng vo sonn &de co gi tri song long
hop C.
ngn hon ke tiep se bang mt na tue l 10 ngy. Chu ky di hon tiep

theo se l 40 ngy. Neu ban nhdr lai nhfing gi chng ta d hoc trong quy
tac 4 tuan (Chuong 9), Nguyen tc Hai ha duoc dan chng de gii
thich vi sao c the sr dung quy lut 2 tuan v 8 tuan.
Nguyen tac b o n g thi pht bieu rang khuynh hirng ca nhfing sng
c chieu di khc nhau se cham dy rat manh me cng mt thi diem.
Hinh 14.9 cho thy Nguyen tc Hai ha v D ong b. Sng B ben dui
bang mt na sng A. Sng B lp lai 2 lan se bng sng A , v d chinh
l Nguyen tc Hi ha. Ch y ring khi sng A cham dinh, sng B c
Hnh 14.9 Nguyn tc Hi ha VY ng b

378 John Murphy
xu hung tng t, m t tinh dng thi ca chng. Tnh ng thi

cng c ngha l nhng chu k bng nhau trong cc th trng khc
nhau cng s c s chuyn i nh nhau.
Nguyn tc Cn i miu t mi quan h gia thi gian v bin

ca chu k. Chu k c thi gian di hn (chiu di) s c bin tng
ng rng hn. Bin , hay chiu cao ca mt chu k 40 ngy s l gp
i chu k 20 ngy.
Nguyn tc bin th v danh ngha

C hai nguyn tc chu k khc m t hnh vi chu k theo mt cch bao
qut hn - Nguyn tc Bin th v Nguyn tc Danh ngha
Nhur chinh tn gi cho thy, Nguyn tc Bin dng l s tha nhn

thc t rng mi nguyn tc chu k uc cp - Cng gp, Hi ha,
ng b v Cn di - l xu th mnh m nhung khng phi l bt di bt
dch. Th gii ny dy nhng bin di thi.
Nguyn tc Danh ngha da trn tin d rng, bt chp s khc bit

ca cc th trng khc nhau v vic cn nhc nhng bin i trong
vic thc hin cc nguyn tc tun hon, dung nh vn c mt chu k
hi ha nh hng n th trng trn danh ngha. V dng chu k danh
Nm Thng Tun Ngy
18
9
54
18
40
20
80
40
20
10
s
Hnh 14.10 M hnh danh ngha gin n

ngha nh vy uc s dng nh l im khi ng trong phn tch bt

c th trng no. Hnh 14.10 th hin mt phin bn gin on ca m
hnh danh ngha . M hnh bt u vi chu k 18 nm v c mi chu
k lin tip thp hon c chiu di bng mt na m hnh trurc. Ngoi
l duy nht l chu k 18 thng ch bng 1/3 chu k 54 thng ch khng
phi mt na.
Khi tho lun v cc chiu di chu k khc nhau trong nhng th

trung ring l, chng ta s thy rng m hnh danh ngha c th gii
thch cho hu ht mi hot ng theo chu k. By gi, hy nhn vo ct
"ngy". Ch ngy 40, 20, 10 v 5. Bn s nhanh chng nhn ra y
l nhng thi gian tnh ng trung binh di ng ph bin. Thm ch
c c nhng con s nh ung trung binh di ng 4,9 v 18 ngy rt
ph bin vn l bin th ca con s 5,10 v 20. C ph v hng tun
cng s dng nhng con s ny nhung c chuyn sang gi tri tun
thnh 2,4 v 8.----------------
KHI NIM CHU K GIP GII TH CH K THUT s

DNG BIU NH TH NO
Chuong 3 cun sch ca Hurst gii thch rt chi tit v cch thc m
cc k thut dng th chun - dng v knh gi, m hnh d th,
ng trung bnh di dng - c th c hiu tt hcm v tn dng nhiu
uii im hn khi kt hp vi nguyn tc tun hon. Hnh 14.11 gii
thch s xut hin ca ung xu hung v knh gi. Khi kt hp vi
ng xu hng tng di hn, sng chu k phng dc y s tr thnh
mt knh gi tng. Ch chu k nm bn dui ging nh mt ch bo
dao ng.
Hnh 14.12 th hin m t m hnh u v vai hnh thnh khi kt hp

hai chu k vi mt ng hng ln i din cho lt c cc yu to di
hn cng li. Tip theo Hurst i vo gii thch hai inh, tam gic, c
v c ui nheo thng qua vic p dng l thuyt chu k. V d, inh
hoc y ch V xut hin khi mt chu k trung gian chuyn hng
cng thi im ca chu k di hn v ngn hon n.
380 John J. Murphy
Hnh 14.11 S hnh thnh knh gi. (Ngun: Hurst, J.M.. The Profit Magic o f
Stock Transaction Timing (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1970).
Hurst cn gii thch cch thc mt dng trung bnh di dng tr nn

hu dng hn nu chiu di ca n xy ra ng hi vi chu k chi
phi. Nhng ngui theo trng phi k thut v d th truyn thng s
c uc s hiu bit su sc v cch thc hnh thnh cc th ph bin
ny dng thi bit dc v sao chng hiu qu nu c chucmg "Thm
trali m hnh d th ca bn" trong cun sch ca Hurst.
Hnh 14.12a B sutig thm mt thnh t khc. (Ngun: Hurst, J.M., The Profit
Magic o f Stock Transaction Timing (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hal, Inc.,
1970).
Hnh 14.12b ng dng Nguyn tc Cng gp (ngun: urs, J.M., The Profit
M agic o f Stock Transaction Tuning (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc.,
1970).
382 John J. M urphy
CC CHU K CHI PHI

C nhiu chu k nh hng n th trng ti chnh. Ch nhng chu k
thc s c gi tr d on mi c coi chu k chi phi. Chu k chi
phi lun lun nh hng n gi v c xc nh mt cch r rng.
a s th trng tng lai c t nht 5 chu k chi phi. Trong chng
ni v cch s dng
th di hn, chng ta
thdy rng nn bt u
phn tch k thut vi
th di hn, ri dn dn
chuyn sang nhng
th ngn hn hn.
Nguyn tc cng
ng vi thuyt chu
k. Quy trnh thch hp
ta khi ng bng
nhng chu k ni bt di
hn, ko di trong vi
nm, ri dn chuyn v
trung hn trong vi tun
n vi thng, cui cng
l nhng chu k cc
ngn t vi gi n vi
ngy, xc nh thi
im gia nhp v thot
khi th trng ng
thi xc nhn nhng
im chuyn oi ca
nhng chu k di hn.
Phn loi chu k Hnh 14.13 (Ngun: Sc mnh ca vic kt hp

ch i bo dao ng/chu k (The Power o f
Chu k c nhng loi Oscillator/Cycle combination) c vit bi
chnh nh: di hn (t 2 Walt Bressert.)
nm tr ln), chu k theo ma ( 1nm), chu k s cp hoc trung cp (9

n 26 tun), chu k giao dch (4 tun). Chu k giao dch uc chia
thnh hai chu k ngn hon l alpha v beta, trung bnh mi chu k ko
di hai tun. (Nhng tn gi nh s cp, giao dch, alpha, beta uc
Walt $ dng m t nhiu chiu di chu k khc nhau.) (Xem hnh
14.13)
Sng K ondratieff
C nhng chu k c bin di hon. C l chu k ni ting nht l chu

k Kondrratieff 54 nm. Ln u tin dc pht minh bi Nikolai D.
Kondratieff - mt nh kinh t hc ngui Nga trong nhng nm 20 ca
th k 20 - chu k di v hot ng kinh t gy nhiu tranh ci ny
dung nh che ph tm nh hung ca n di vi cc ng thi gi ca
hu nh tt c cc th trng hng ha v chng khon. c bit, chu
k 54 nm uc nhn din trong th trng li sut, ng, vi bng, la
mi, chng khotrv gi hng ha bn s. Kondratieff quan st sng di
ca minh bt u t nm 1789 bng nhng yu t nh gi hng ha, sn
lng gang, lng cng nhn trong ngnh nng nghip ti Anh. (Xem
hnh 14.14). Chu k KondratiefT tr thnh ti tranh lun trong nhng
nm gn y, ch yu l v nh mi nht ca n tht s xut hin
vo nhng nm 1920, v nh k tip th tr hn kh lu. Bn thn
Kondratie t rt nhiu tm huyt cho quan im v chu k ca nn
kinh t t bn. Ngi ta tin rng ng d cht trong mt tri lao ng
kh sai Siberia. c thm thng tin, hy c cun Chu k sng di
(The Long Wave Cycle) ca Kondratieff uc Guy Daniels dch sang
ting Anh. [Hai cun sch khc v ch d ny l Sng K (The K Wave)
ca David Knox Barker v Chu k ln (The Great Cycle) ca Dick
Stoken.]
Hnh 14.14 S/Ig (li ca KondratiejJ. bit thm thng tin, hy dc cun "Chu k sng di" ca Nikolai Koildnitiejj, c dich
sang ting Anil bf'ri Guy Daniels. (New York: Richardson v Snyder. 1984). l bn dich du tin t bn gc ting Nga. (Copyright
t / 1984 by The New York Company. c php in li. (Ngv 27 thng 5, 1984. trang F l.)
KT hp di chu k
Thng thng, chu k di hn v theo ma quyt nh xu hng chnh

ca th trng. Hin nhin, nu chm y, mt chu k hai nm s c t
nht 1 nm tng gi, c do t y n inh. Chnh v th m chu k
di hn c tm nh hng ln i vi hng pht hin ca th trng.
Th trng cng c m hnh theo ma, ngha l c xu th t inh hoc
y ti mt thi im no trong nm. V d, th trng thc la
thung chm y ti thi im thu hoch v phc hi sau . Nhng
bin ng theo ma thng ch ko di trong vi thng.
Chu k hng tun c bn c coi l hu dng nht cho mc ch

giao dch. Chu k c bn t 3 n 6 thng dc coi l tng ng mt
xu hng cp trung v xc nh dc hng giao dch. Chu k ngn
hn k tip l chu k giao dch 4 tun, c dng thit lp im gia
nhp v thot khi theo chiu hung ca xu hng chnh. Neu xu
hung c bnJng, y chu k giao dch uc s dng cho vic mua
vo. Nu xu hng c bn l gim, nh chu k s uc s dng cho
vic bn ra. Chu k 10 ngy alpha v beta c s dng cho nhng giao
dch ngn hn hn. (Xem hnh 14.13)
TM quan tr n g ca xu h ng
Giao dch theo hung pht trin ca xu hung l khi nim uc nhn
mnh xuyn sut mn hc phn tch k thut. Trong chng trc,
chng ta uc gi rng nhng c rcr ngn hn nn c dng
mua vo nu nh xu hung trung gian tng, v t tng gi ngn hn
dng lm im bn trong xu hng gim. L thuyt sng Elliott chi ra
rng bin dng 5 bc sng ch! din ra theo chiu hng ca xu hung
ln hn. Chnh v th m cn phi xc nh c chiu hnc ca xu
hng ln hom k tip v giao dch theo hng d nu mun s dng
bt k mt xu hng ngn hn no xc nh thi im. Khi nim
cng ng khi p dng cho l thuyt chu k. Xu hng ca m t chu
k c xc nh bi hng i ca chu k di hn k tip. Hay ni cch
khc, mt khi xu hung ca chu k di hn uc hnh thnh th xu
hng ca chu k ngn hn k tip cng uc nhn bit.
386 John J. Murphy
Chu k giao dch 28 ngy trong th trng hng ha

Mt chu k rt quan trng nh hng n hu ht mi th trung hng
ha l chu k giao dch 28 ngy. Ni cch khc, hu nh mi th trng
u c xu th hnh thnh y chu k mi 4 tun. Mt cch gii thch
tuong di hp l cho xu th ny trong tt c cc th trng hng ha l
chu k mt trng. Burton Pugh nghin cu chu k 28 ngy ca la m
vo nhng nm 30 ca th k 20 (Science and Secret o f Wheat Trading,
Lambert-Gann, Pomeroy, WA, 1978, orig., 1933) v kt lun rng mt
trng tc ng n im chuyn i th trung. L thuyt ca ng cho
rng ncn mua la m khi trng trn v nn bn khi trng cn non. Tuy
nhin, Pugh bit rng nh hng ca mt ting khng ln v khng th
tc dng n nhng chu k di hn hon hoc nhng s kin trng i hon.
Cho d mt trng c tm nh hng nh th no thi chu k bnh

qun 28 ngy vn tn ti v gii thch cho nhiu con s uc s dng
trong vic hnh thnh nhng ch bo v h thng giao dch ngn hn.
Th nht, chu k 28 ngy l da theo ngy duong lch. Nu chuyn i
thnh phin giao dch trn thc t th con s tr thnh 20. Chng ta
bnh lun v vic nhiu ng trung binh ng, chi bo dao ng v
quy lut hng tun da trn con so 20 v nhng chu k ngn hn hon
c lin quan vi n l 5 v 10 nh th no. ng trung bnh di ng
s, 10 v 20 ngy uc s dng rng ri cng vi nhng con s phi sinh
ca n i 4, 9 v 18. Nhiu nh giao dch dng dng trung bnh di
ng 10 v 40 ngy, trong 40 l s gp i ca 20.
Trong Chung 9, chng ta tho lun li ch ca quy lut 4 tun

uc pht minh bi Richard Donchian. Tn hiu mua c to ra khi
th trng thit lp inh 4 tun mi v tn hiu bn xut hin ti kh
hnh thnh y 4 tun mi. Vic bit uc s tn ti ca chu k giao
dch 4 tun gip ta hiu tht r ngha ca con s 4 v gii thch v sao
quy lut 4 tun li hiu qu trong nhiu nm qua. Khi mt th trng
vut khi ngng cao 4 tun truc, th t nht ta cng c th suy ra t
l thuyt chu k l chu k ln hn k tip (chu k 8 tun) chm y
v bt ln.
S TNH TIN TR I PHI
Khi nim tnh tin l khia cnh c ngha nht trong phn tch chu k.
Tnh tin tri phi ng s dch chuyn nh chu k sang phi hoc
sang tri trung im ca chu k l tung. Vi d, chu k giao dch 20
ngy c o t y ny sang y kia. inh l tung s xut hin
ngy 10 hay trung im. C ngha l mt t tng gi 10 ngy s tip
ni mt t rt gi trong 10 ngy. T\iy nhin, inh chu k l tung s
him khi xut hin. a s nhng bin ng quan trng trong chu k
din ra ti inh ch khng phi y. l l do y c xem l ng
tin cy hn v uc dng o chiu di chu k.
Cc inh chu k hot ng hon ton khc, ph thuc vo xu hng

ca chu k di hn k tip. Nu xu hng tng, dinh chu k dch sang
phi trung im l tng, gy ra s tnh tin sang phi. Neu xu hung
di hn gim, inh chu k dch chuyn sang bn tri trung im v to
nn s dch chuyn sang tri. Chinh v th, tnh tin sang phi c ngha
l tng gi v tnh tin sang tri ngha l gim gi. Hy thi ngh v n.
Tt c nhng gi chng ta ni y l trong mt xu hng tng, thi
gian gi tng ln hon gim. Trong mt xu hung gim, gi mt thi
gian di xung nhiu hon i ln. khng phi l nh ngha cn bn
ca xu hng sao? Chi c diu, trong tning hp ny chng ta ni v
thi gian ch khng phi gi. (Xem hnh 14.15).
CCH TCH CHU K
tm hiu uc s tc ng ca cc chu k khc nhau i vi mt

loi th tning cho trc, ta cn phi tch tng chu k chi phi. C rt
nhiu cch d lm c vic ny. Cch n gin nht l kim tra bng
mt. V d, khi xem xt d th thanh hng ngy, ta c th xc nh cc
nh v y hin th trn th trung. Bng cch tnh thi gian bnh qun
gia cc nh v cc y chu k ny, chng ta s c c chiu di
trung bnh.
C nhng cng c gip ta thc hin vic ny d dng hn, chng hn

nh Ehrlich Cycle Finder, mt cng c uc t theo tn ca nh pht
388 John J. Murphy
A A A A A AA/VV C H U K N G I N
HNHA
* ^ __
** X.
*
X U H N G C A C H IU K L N H N
HNHB
CHU K ON GIN
s/KA 7 m ? K A
CHU K NH ' _ j __ :
HN K T hp ; ,- j :
"VI XU H V N ^ ,. \
* <- ^ ^ r 1 M 1 W 1 \ / V A s 1
: 7 / y
* , \ \ / V &\
* / 1 // X^ ' ' '
/ V+**
1 / +
\t
y> *
< Khi XQ hng ca Khi xu hnng ca
chu k 16n hn chu k 16n han
DI CHUYN Ln DI CHUYN XUNG
(TH TRUNC GI LN) (TR TRNG GI XUNC)
HlNHC
Hnh 14.15 Vi d v s tnh tin tri phi. Hnh A th hin mt chu k on.
Hnh B th hin xu hung ca chu k ln hn. Hnh c th hin hiu ng kt
hp. Khi xu hung ln hon tng, nh trung im dch chuyn sang phi. Khi
xu hung ln hn gim th inh trung im dch chuyn sang tri. Tnh tin
sang phi l tng gi, tnh tin sang tri l gim gi. (Ngun: The Power o f
Oscillator/Cycle Combination ca Walt Bresert.)
minh Stan Ehrlich (ECF, 112 Vida Court, Novato, CA 94947 [415] 892-
1183). Cycle Finder l mt cng c c hnh dng n ccoc c s
dng trn th gi kim tra bng mt. Khong cch gia cc im
lun lun cch u nhau v c ni rng hoc thu hp va vi
chiu di ca chu k. Bng cch v khong cch gia hai y chu k
hin th, ta c th nhanh chng xc nh liu c tn ti nhng y chu
k bng nhau khc hay khng. Mt phin bn in t ca cng c ny
c tn gi Ehrlich Cycle Focaster c cung cp nh mt k tht phn
tch c trong Omega Research's Trade Station and Super Chart
(#Omega Research, 8700 West Flagler Street, Suite 250, Miami, FL.
33174, [305] 551-9991, www.omegaresearch.com). (Xem hinh 14.16-
14.18).
My tnh c th gip pht hin chu k bng s kim tra trc quan.
i i n i m w i 'M i i i A i i m n w f w n w i w w n w B B K B âecs
SSSSSSSSSEBSEBBSSBIBSSSSlg.
Hnh 14.16 Chu k tng thng 4 nm mt ln c xc nh r rng bng

Ehrich Cycle Forecaster (ng thng ng). Nu chu k tip tc din m th
y tip theo d on l vo nm 998.
390 John J. Murphy
Hnh 14.17 Ehriich Cycle Forecaster xc nh chu k giao dch 49 ngy ca

gi tng lai ch so s&p 500 (ng thng ng). Theo ECF, d on y chu
k tip theo s c hnh thnh 49 ngy sau k t y gn nhat, tc l vo ngy
30 thng 3 nm 1998.
Hnh 14.18 ECF khm ph chu k 133 ngy ca Boeing (ng thng ng).
y chu k gn nht l thng 2 nm 1997, v the ECF d on y chu k k
tip l 133 ngy sau , tc l thng 3 nm 1998.
Phn tch k th u t th tr n g t i chn h 391
Dow c chuJ^40 PuanJtaj chu k cui cng vo ma xun nm 1997

v u nm 998. (mi tn).
Hnh 14.19b ng cong chu k hng ngy th hin s hin din cc y chu
k 50 ngy ca ch s Dw vo nua cui nm 1997 v u nm 1998. Chng
ta dch chuyn ung cong cho n khi cc y chu k trng vi nhiu y ca
th gi.
392 John J. M urphy
Hnh 4.20a Bt u vi y chinh vo nm 1981, cc ng cong chu k cho

bit tri phiu c xu hng chm y sau mi 75 thng (6,25 nm). Nhng con
s ny c the thay oi theo thi gian nhung van cung cp cho ta nhng thng
tin giao dch hu ch.
Hnh I4.20b ng dng vo th hng ngy, ng cong chu k th hin xu

hung chm y ca gi tri phiu c mi 55 ngy giao dch trong giai on
trn. (Xem mi tn).
Trc tin, ngui s dng ua m hnh gi ln mn hnh. Tip theo l

chn mt y ni bt d lm im khi u. Sau , nhng ung
thng ng (hay cong) hnh thnh 10 ngy mt ln (gi tr mc nh).
Thi gian ca chu k c th ko di hn, ngn hn hoc dch 'chuyn
sang tri hay phi tim thy chu k ng thch hp vi d th. (Xem
hnh 14.19 v 14.20)
CHU K T H E O MA
mt chng mc no , tt c th tning u b nh hng bi chu

k theo ma. Chu k theo ma cho bit cc th trng c xu hung di
chuyn theo mt hng cho trac trong mt khong thi gian no
trong nm. Chu k theo ma ca thc c y thung xut hin vo thi
im thu hoch, khi ngun cung phong ph nht. Vi d, inh theo ma
ph bin nht ca chu k thng din ra gia thng 4 v thng 6 v y
l vo gia thng 8 v thng 10. (Xem hnh 14.21). M hnh c bit
n nhiu nht l vt rn thng 2, trong gi thc la v u nnh
Hnh 14.21 u nnh thng dt dinh vo u thng 5 v y 'vo thng 10.

394 John J. Murphy
thung gim t cui thng 12 hoc u thng n thng 2.
Mc d chu k theo ma l iu hin nhin i vi th trung nng

sn, nhung hu nh mi th trng u tng xut hin m hnh theo
ma. V d, ng th hin mt xu hung tng mnh t giai on thng
1/2 vi xu th t inh vo thng 3 hoc thng 4. (Xem hnh 14.22).
Bc cng c y vo thng Ging v gi tng dn n thng 3. Vng th
hin xu hung chm y vo thng B. Sn lng du c khuynh hung
chm nh vo thng 10 v thng khng chm y cho n cui ma
ng. (Xem hnh 14.23). Th trung ti chnh cng c m hnh theo
ma.
ng -la M c khuynh hng chm y vo thng Ging. (Xem
Hinh 14.22 ng thng chm y vo thng 10 v thng 2, nhng inh li

xut hin vo g ia i on thng 4-5.
Phn tch V thut th trng ti chnh 395
Hnh 14.23 Gi du th thng chm nh vo thng 10 v chuyn hng i

ln trong thng 3.
hnh 14.24.) Gi Tri phiu Chinh ph thng t inh quan trng vo

thng Ging. Sut nm, gi Tri phiu Chnh ph thng gim vo na
u nm v tng trong na cn li. (Xem hnh 14.25). Vi d v th
theo ma uc cung cp bi Moore Research Center (Moore Research
Center, 321 West 13th Avenue, Eugene, OR 97401, (800) 927-7259), to
chc chuyn v phn tch th trng tuong lai theo ma.
CHU K CA TH TRNG CHNG KHON

Bn c bit rng th trung chng khon mnh nht trong giai on t
thng 11 n thng Ging? Sau s yu di vo thng 2, nhng mnh
ln li vo thng 3 v thng 4. Sau thng 6 trm lng, th trng chuyn
hung si ni hn trong thng 7 (bt u t hi phc truyn thng).
Thng yu nht trong nm l thng 9. Thng mnh nht l thng 12 (kt
thc bng t hi phc ng gi Noel ngay sau l Ging Sinh). Tt c
396 John . Murphy
Am D eutsche MarkMM) 15 Yf 8 m o n im W 7 )
too
! t
M
90
---- . .I 1
80
fflr Ti I f U i
Vi l / f : n
40
1 : ...................... : " .
..
.?
. 1 ........ ..... ........ - - 20
0
Sep O d N ov D 0C Jan Feb M ar A pr M ay Jun
H n h 14.24 nh ca ng mc c xut hin vo thng Ging trng vi

ngng thp ca ng -la M thng iHet ra vo u nm.
s p 30- Year T-8ondB<CBOT) 15 Y n t Seasonal63-97)
H n h 1 4 .2 5 Gi Tri phiu Chinh ph thng chm nh vo u nm mi, v

gim i sui na u nnu Na cui nm l xu th tng gi ca tri phiu.
nhng thng tin k trn v cn nhiu diu khc v chu k ca th trng

c th c tm thy trong cun Nin gim dnh cho nh giao dch
chng khon (Stock Trader's almanac) ca Yale Hirsch. (The Hirsch
Organization, 184 Central Avenue, Old Tappen, NJ 07675)
PHONG V BIU THNG GING
Yale Hirsch tng ni rng Thng Ging th no th c nm s th

. Phong v biu thng Ging cho rng chi s S&P500 trong thng
Ging s xc nh th trng trong c nm. Mt bin th khc ca
phong v biu ny cho rng chiu hung ca 5 phin giao dch u tin
trong nm s cho ta manh mi v nhng gi s din ra trong thi gian
cn li ca nm. Phong v biu thng Ging c th b nhm ln vi
Hiu ng thng Ging, theo , trong thng Ging, cc chng khon
quy m nh s c khuynh hung biu hin tt hon so vi cc loi chng
khon quy m ln hon.
CHU K TNG T H N G
Mt chu k ni ting khc nh hng n din bin ca th trumg
chng khon l chu k 4 nm, cn uc gi l Chu k Tng thng, v
n trng vi thi im bu c tng thng. Tng nm trong 4 nm ny
c mc li nhun khc nhau. Nm bu c (1) thng mnh. Nm hu
bu ca v nm gia (2 v 3) thng yu. Nm truc tuyn c mi (4)
th mnh. Theo Nin gim dnh cho nh giao dch chng khon ca
Hrsch, nm bu c t 1904 c mc tng bnh qun l 224%, nm hu
bu c t 72%, nm gia t 63% v nm tin bu c t 217%. (Xem
hnh 14.16).
VIC KT HP CHU K vn NHNG CNG c KTHUT KHC

Hai im chung gia chu kv v chi bo k thut truyn thng l cch
s dng ung trung bnh di dng v ch bo dao ng. Ngi ta tin
rng gi tr ca c hai chi bo k thut s gia tng nu thi gian c
s dng do lng tng ng vi chu k ni bt ca mi loi th
trng. Gi s mt th trung c chu k giao dch 20 ngy. Thng
398 John J. Murphy
thucmg, khi v mt chi bo dao ng, tt nht l s dng na chiu di

chu k. Trong trung hp ny, thi gian ca chi bo dao ng l 10
ngy. giao dch chu k 40 ngy, ta s dng chi bo dao ng 20
ngy. Trong cun Sc mnh ca vic kt hp ch bo dao ng/chu k
ca mnh, Walt ressert tho lun cch chu k c s dng d iu
chinh qung thi gian ca chi s knh hng ha Comodity Channel
Index, chi s cung tng i, chi bo dao ng v ung trung
bnh di ng hi t/phn k. ( MACD).
ng trung bnh di ng cng c th kt hp vi chu k. Bn c

th s dng nhng ng trung bnh di ng khc nhau theo di
nhng chu k c di khc nhau. to ra mt h thng trung bnh
i ng cho chu k 40 ngy, bn c th s dng dng trung bnh i
ng 40 ngy kt hp vi ng trung bnh 20 ngy ( V ca chu k 40
ngy) hoc ng trung bnh 10 ngy (% ca chu k 40 ngy), vn
chinh l phi xc nh c chu k chi phi ti mt thi im no .
PHN TCH QUANG P H ENTROPY c c I

Vic tm uc ng chu k chi phi ca bt k mt th trng no cng
rt phc tp vi chiu di chu k lun lun thay di theo thi gian.
Nhng gi c hiu qu vo mt thng trc c th khng c ngha k
t thng ny. Trong cun sch ca mnh c ta MESA v cc chu k
th trng giao dch (MESA and Trading Market Cycles), John Ehlers
s dng mt cch tip cn theo thng k uc gi l phn tch quang
ph entropy cc i (Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis (MESA)),
Ehlers gii thch rng mt trong nhng u im ca MESA l s do
lung chu k trong nhng khong thi gian tng i ngn vi kh
nng x l cao, vn l yu t quyt nh trong giao dch ngn hn.
Ehlers cng din gii cch chu k c s dng ti u ha chiu di
ung trung bnh di ng v nhiu chi bo dao dng d duc ni n.
Nhng chu k c gii thiu cng dc iu chinh linh hot ph
hp vi hon cnh th trcmg hin ti. Ehler cng din gii vn gp
phi khi phn bit mt th trng theo chu k so vi th trung ang
theo xu hng. Khi mt th trung ang trong xu hung, mt chi bo

theo xu hng nh ung trung binh di ng l th cn dng thc
hin giao dch. Th trng theo phng thc chu k li nghing v s
dng chi bo dao ng. o lng chu k gip xc nh duc phng
thc ca chu k hin hnh v loi ch bo k thut thch hp cho chin
lurcgiao dch.
CON S CHU K V PHN MM chu k
Hu ht nhng cun sch uc gii thiu trong chng ny u c th

c t mua qua bu in t nhng cng ty nh Trader Press (Xem
tham kho trong chung truc) ca Trader's Library, P.O. Box 2466,
Ellicott City, MD 21041, [800] 272-2855). Ngoi ra cn c nhiu phn
mm gip phn tch chu k. C hai la chn d s dng phn mm d
th ca Omega Research l Erhich Cycle Forecaster v Cycle Trader
ca Walt Bressert. Cycle Trader ca Walt Bressert hp nht khi nim
trong cun sch currinhc ta Sc mnh ca vic kt hp chi bo
dao ng/chu k (The Power o f Oscillator/Cycle Combinations).
(Bressert Marketing Group, 100 East Wlton, Suite 200, Chicago, IL
60611 (312) 867-8701). Nhiu thng tin khc v chucmg trinh MESA
c th c ly t John Ehlers (Box 1801, Goleta, CA 93116 (805)
969-6478). Vi nghin cu v phn tch chu k hin c, ng qun c
cun C s nn tng trong nghin cu chu k (Foundation for the
Study o f Cycles.)
CHONG 15
My tnh v cc
h thng giao dch
G I I TH IU
My tnh ng VTtr Tigycngrcun ng trong lnh vc phn tch k

thut. Trong chucmg ny, chng ta $ tm hiu cch my tnh thc hin
cc nhim v ca nh giao dch k thut mt cch d dng nh kh
nng s dng nhanh chng nhng cng c k thut cng nh cc
nghin cu von i hinhiu cng sc thc hin nu l vi nm
v truc. D nhin, chng ti mun ni rng, cc nh giao dch bit
cch s dng nhng cng c ny - iu-s h l nhng khuyt im ca
my tnh.
Nhng nh giao dch khng thc hnh nhng khi nim cn bn cc

chi bo khc nhau mt cch thch hp v nhng ngi khng quen vi
cch tng loi chi bo dc din gii c th cm thy chong ngp vi
s lung phn mm my tnh hin c trn th trng. T hn l kh
nng nm gi s lng d liu k thut khng l chi bng nhng ngn
tay to iu kin cho nhng phn on khng chinh xc v chng
khon v kh nng ca chng. Cc nh giao dch sai lm khi cho
rng h tr nn gii hn nh s hu nhiu sc mnh my tnh hon.
Phn ny nhn mnh rng my tnh chnh l mt cng c hu dng

trong tay nhng nh giao dch k thut hon thnh nhng cng vic
402 John J. Murphy
cn bn. Khi chng ti lt qua nhng dc im thung thy ca my

tinh, bn s nhn thy kh nhiu cng c v chi bo hon ton l cn
bn v d dc ni n trong nhng chuong tnrc. ng nhin, cn
c nhng cng c tinh vi hn i hi nhng chng trnh phn mm
th hin i hn.
Rt nhiu cng vic phn tch k thut khng cn n my tnh. Mt

s cng vic s dc thc hin bng mt th v thc o on gin
d dng hn so vi tn hiu trn my tnh. Mt s dng phn tch bin
d di hn cng khng cn n my tinh. D hu dng n u, my
tnh cng chi l mt cng c. N c th thc hin phn tch k thut tt
hn. Tuy nhiu, n khng gip mt nh phn tch yu km tr thnh
mt nh giao dch gii uc.
Phn mcm th
Trong nhng chng trc, chng ta d cp n mt s cng vic
thung thy ca cc phn mm th. Chng ta s xem ti mt s cng
c v chi bo c sn. Sau d ta s gii thu thm mt s c im nh
kh nng t ng ha nhiu chc nng khc nhau theo yu cu ca
ngui s dng. Ngoi vic cung cp nhng nghin cu k thut khc
nhau, my tnh cn gip ta kim tra nhng nghin cu khc nhau d tm
kim li nhun, chnh l c im c gi tr nht ca chung trnh.
Mt s phn mm cho php ngui s dng thiu kin thit cn bn v
my tnh c th v uc nhng ch bo k thut v h thng.
H thng hung vn dng v h thong parabol ca Welles Wilder

Chng ta s tip cn hai th thng ph bin hon ca Welles Wilder l
h thng hng vn ng v h thong parabol. Hai h thng ny uc
s dng khi tho lun v gi tr tng i ca nhng h thng giao dch
trn my. Trong d, h thng theo xu hng trn my chi hot dng
hiu qu trong nhng hon cnh th trng no d. N cn cho thy
rng mt h thng trn my c th kt hp vi kt qu phn tch th
trng bng tay nh th no v h thng s gip xc nhn ch bo
k thut ra sao.
Qu nhiu cng dng

Bn s cm thy c qu nhiu ch bo la chn. Thay v mi th cn
c n gin ha, my tinh li lm mi th phc tp khi cung cp qu
nhiu th ta xem xt. Cc gi th cung cp 80 nghin cu k thut
khc nhau cho ngi s dng. Mt ngi lm th no rt ra uc mt
kt un (v tm c thi im giao dch) khi c qu nhiu d liu?
NHU CU MY TNH
Phn mm th c th p dng cho hu ht cc th trng ti chnh.
a s phn mm u thn thin vi ngi s dng, ngha l chng c
tin hnh mt cch d ng bng cch ia chn t danh sch nhng tnh
nng c sn. hy bt u vi gi phn mm th c ci t cho my
tnh ca bn. hy nh rng a s cc phn mm v th u c vit
cho nhng my tnh tng hp vi IBM.
Gi th khng cung~cp cK bn d liu th trng hng ngy.

Ngi s ng phi y chng t nhng noi khc. D liu c th c
cung cp t mt dch v d liu qua in thoi (cn c mt modem in
thoi). Gi th cung cp tn nhiu ngui bn d liu ty theo la
chn ca bn. Nhng ngi bn d liu ny cung cp tt c phn mm
v ch dn cn thit thit p v thu thp d liu.
Khi vic u tin bt u, ngi s dng phi thu thp d liu t

nht l t vi thng trc c th lm vic. Sau , d liu phi c
cp nht hng ngy. Ta c th phn tch d liu trc tuyn bng cch
mc ni vi mt dch v nim yt gi. Tuy nhin, khi s dng d liu
hng ngy chng ta s s dng d liu cui ngy sau khi th trng
ng ca. Thit b cui cng bn cn c l mt my in c th c
c mt bn sac nhng din bin trn mn hnh gn y nht. Ngoi
ra cng yu cu kh nng c CD-room v mt s nh cung cp phn
mm cung cp bn d liu nhiu nm truc trn mt chic a CD-
room. C mt s ngi bn cn gip n gin ha nhng nhim v ca
bn a ra vi vic cung cp chc nng v th. C th k ra mt dch
404 John J. Murphy
v nh vy l Telescan ( 5959 Corporate Drive, Suite 2000, Houston,

TX 77036, (800) 324-8246, www.telescan.com).
TP HP CC CNG C V CH BO
Danh sch sau y tp hp mt s la chn th v chi bo:
th c bn: thanh, ng, im v hnh, nn Nht
d th. ton hc hoc bn l-ga
th thanh', gi, khi lung giao dch v s lng hp dng chua
tt ton ( cho th trng tung lai)
Khi lng giao dch: thanh, cn bng khi lng v ch s nhu cu
Cng c c bn: ung v knh gi, thoi li theo t ] phn trm,
ng trung bnh di dng v chi bo dao dng
ng trung bnh di ng: ung bao vy, di bng Bollinger
Ch! bo dao ng: ch s knh gi hng ha, xung lng, tc bin
thin, MACD, Stochastic, Williams %R, ch s cung tng i
RSI
Chu k: Cycle Finder
Cng c Fibonacci', ng qut, dng cong, vng thi gian v
thoi lui
Wilder. RSI, chi s la chn hng ha, hng vn dng, Parabol,
Chi s dao ng, ung ADX
S DNG CNG C V CH BO
Lm th no mt nh giao dch c th i ph vi qu nhiu la chn?
Mt li khuyn l s dng nhng cng c ca bn nli gi, khi lng
giao dch, ng xu hung, thoi li theo t l phn trm, ng trung
bnh di dng v chi bo dao ng. Hy ch n s lng ln cc ch
bo dao ng c sn. Hy chn mt hoc hai th m bn c th s dng
thun tin. Chi t nhng th nh chu k v Fibonacci v tr th hai
tr phi bn c bit hng th vi nhng dng ny. Chu k c th gip
iu chinh vi cp chiu di ng trung binh di ng v chi bo dao

ng, nhng i hi bn phi thc hnh v nghin cu nghim tc. Vi
h thng giao dch bng my, Parabol v DMI ca Wilder c bit c
gi tr.
CC H THNG PARABOL V HNG VN NG CA

WELLES W ILDER
Chng ta s dnh thi gian ni v hai nghin cu c bit hu ch.
C hai nghin cu ny c pht trin bi J.Welles Wilder (con) v
c tho lun trong cun sch ca ng c ta Khi nim mi trong
h thng giao dch k thut (New Concepts in Technical Trading
System). Nhng nghin cu khc ca ng uc lit k trong danh sch
trn my tnh - chi s la chn hng ha, chi s cng tng i v
chi $ dao dng - cng uc gii thiu trong cun sch ni trn.
H thng p a ra b e l (SAR)---------
H thng parabol ca Wilder (SAR) l h thng do chiu thi gian/gi
- mt h thng thung din ra trn th trng. Cc ch ci SAR l vit
tt ca ch Stop and Reserve (dng v o chiu), ngha l v th b
o nghch khi chm lnh dng. y l mt h thng tun theo xu
hung. Ci tn ny bt ngun t vic nhng lnh dng trt gi un
cong theo hnh parabol. (Xem hnh 15.1-15.4). Ch rng khi gi c
xu hung tng dn, diing chm tng nm bn dui ng biu din gi
(im dng v o chiu) bt du chm li ri sau tng tc theo xu
hung. Trong mt xu hung gim, trinh t cng nh vy nhimg theo
humg nguc li (ung chm bn trn dung biu din gi). Cc s
liu SAR c tnh v cp nht vo ngy giao dch hm sau.
Wilder a yu t gia tc vo h thng. Mi ngy, lnh dng ti di

chuyn theo hung ca xu hung mi. Ban u, s vn ng ca lnh
dng tng i chm cho php xu hng c thi gian hnh thnh. Kh
yu t gia tc tng, SAR bt u di chuyn nhanh hon v cui cng bt
kp ng ng thi gi. Nu xu hng ngp ngng, hoc khng th
406 John J. Murphy
Hlnh 15.1 SAR parabol l ung chm trn th. Tin hiu mua xut hin khi
ng SAR bn trn chm ng gi (mi tn thnhat). Ch cch SAR tng
tc v pha truc trong t hi phc v bt kp gn nh c xu hung tng. Hin
tng li cua nh pha trn bn phi lp tc duc iu chinh. H thng ny
c hiu qu khi c xu hung-
Hnh 15.2 M t phin bn di hn ca th trc cho thy nhng kha cnh

l t v xu ca pam bol cng nh bt k m t h thng theo xu hung no. Chng
hot ng hiu qu trong nhng g ia i on c xu hung (l phn bn phi v
tri ca th), nhung l i v dng trvng bin t thng 8 en thng Ging.
H nh 1 5 J Parabol c th c s dng trng th hng thng quan s t

xu hung chinh. Tin hiu bn vo u nm 1994 tip ni bng m t tn hiu m ua
vo cui m a h. Ngoi tr m t li cua trong nm 1996, h thong n y gn
nh hot ng r t t t trong 4 nm.
H nh 15.4 Parabo p dng trn th hng tun ca D ell. Sau khi tnh trng
tch cc su t nm 997, tin h i u bn xu t h in vo thng 10. Tin hiu bn
o chiu v xu t hin m t tn hiu m ua vo thi im k t thc nm 997.
408 John J. Murphy
hnh thnh th kt qu l s xut hin ca tn hiu ngng v o chiu.

Nh trn th i km cho thy, h thng parabol c bit hiu qu
trong th trng c xu hung. Hy luu rng trong khi cc thnh phn
ca xu hng hot ng tt th h thng li xut hin hin tng li
ca trong sut nhng giai on i ngang hay v hng.
iu chng minh rng mi h thng theo xu hung du c im

mnh v im yu. Chng vn hnh hiu qu trong nhng giai on xu
hng r rng, tc l 30% theo nhu lc tnh ca Wilder. Nu a vo
thc t, c ngha l mt h thng theo xu hng khng lm vic hiu
qu 70% thi gian. Lm th no ngi ta c th gii quyt uc vn
ny?
ng D M I v ADX
C mt gii php kh thi i s dng mt dng b lc no hoc mt
Hnh 15.5 ng ADX o c cng ca hng vn ng. MI s suy

gim l mc trn 40 (mi tn bn tri) bo hiu s giao dch theo bin . S
gia lng t mc di 20 (mi tn bn phi) bo hiu s hi phuc thi k theo
xu hng.
cng c xc nh liu th trung c ang i theo mt xu hung no

hay khng. ng ADX (ADX - Average Directional Movement Index
- l k thut ch bo th hin th trng dang trong trng thi c xu
hung hay khng c xu hung - ND) ca Wilder sp xp hng vn
ng ca nhiu dng th trun g khc nhau theo mt t l t 0 n 100.
Mt ng ADX tng tic l th trung ang theo xu hng v thch hp
cho mt h thng theo xu hung. Mt ung ADX gim chng t mt
mi trng khng r xu hung, vn khng nn uc dng cho nhng
phng php tip cn theo xu hung. (Xem hnh 15.5)
V ng ADX c l l t 0 n 100, nh giao dch theo xu hng

chi cn giao dch khi c ch s xu hng cao nht. Nhng h thng v
hung (chng hn chi bo dao ng) hu ch hn i vi nhng th
trng c chi s hng vn ng thp.
Hnh 15.6 D n g h n g vn n g d c y th c th c s dung n h

m t b lc c h o p a n tb o l ( th trn). K h i n g + D I trn d u n g -D I (du bn
p h i v bn tr i c a th), l t c tin hiu bn trn p a ra b o l u b b qua. Vic
n y s loi b n liim g l i c a trong g ia i o n h i phuc.
4X0 John J. Murphy
Hung van dng c6 the dirge stir dung nhv mot he thong hoc nhir
mot bo loc tren parabol hay bat ky mot he thong no tun theo xu
huong. Co hai dung dugc sinh ra tu DMI (l mot phan ctia chi bao
ADX)+DI v -DI. Duong th nht do luong van dong duong (tng) v
ducmg thir hai la van dng am (gim). Hinh 15.6 the hien hai dung
nay. Dung sm hem l dung +DI v duong nhat hon la dirong -DI. Tin
hieu mua xuat hien khi dung +DI ct dung -DI v tin hieu ban l khi
n ct di xuong dung -DI.
Hinh 15.6 cho thy c he thong parabol lan hung van dng. Parabol
l he th6ng nhay cm hon, tue l cc tin hieu xut hien thung xuyen
v sm hon. Tuy nhien, viec s dung hung van dng nhu mt b loc
sS trnh duoc nhieu tin hieu sai trong parabol bng cch chi di theo
nhng tin hieu cng hung vi dung hung van dng. Dung nhu he
thong parabol v hung van dng c the duoc stir dung dong thi, trong
d Hung van dng l b loc ctia dung Parabol nhay cm.
Hinh 15.7 Dircmg AD X14 tun c dinh vo dau nm 1996 mirc tren 40, v
bat dau giao dich theo bien do trong 18 thng. S v tien len ca dimmg ADX
trong mua h i nm 1997 tu mite dum 20 bo hieu xu hung bat dau.
Hnh 1S.8 Mt dng ADX trn th hng thng ch s du AMEX (XOI).

ADX c (nhbrrtrn 4 V O nm-1990,kt thc t hi phc c phiu du.
S tiri n ca ng ADX t bn di 20 vo du nm 995 bo hiu s kt
thc giai on 4 nm giao dch theo bin ca cphiu du. nhn bit s bt
u ca mt t tng mi.
Thi im l tng nht s dng h thng xu hng l khi ung

ADX tng. (Xem hnh 1S.7 v 1S.8). Tuy nhin, cn lun lun ghi nh
l khi ung ADX bt u ri xung t mc trn 40 c ngha l xu
hung ang suy yu. S quay u gia tng ln trn mc 20 thung l
mt tn hiu khi ng xu hng mi. (v c bn, ung ADX l s
chnh lch gia ng +DI v -DI).
NHNG K I N TN TH N H V PH N i G IA O D C H
H THNG
u im ca h th n g m y mc:
1. Loi tr uc cm xc con ngui.
2. Tnh quy tc cao.
412 John J. Murphy
3. Tnh nht qun cao hn.

4. Giao dch theo hung pht trin ca xu hng.
5. Ngi tham gia c bo m bt c hirng pht trin mi xu
hng quan trng.
6. Li nhun lin tc.
7. Gim thiu tn tht.
Bt li ca h thng m y mc:
1. Phn ln cc h thng u tun theo xu hng.
2. H thong tun theo xu hung chi c ch khi da trn xu hung chnh.
3. H thong tun theo xu hng nhn chung khng hiu qu khi th
trng khng r xu hung.
4. C nhng giai on kh di th trung giao dch v hng v vi
th khng thch hp ch cch tip cn theo xu hng.
Vn chnh y l s tht bi ca h thng trong vic xc nh

c thi im v hng ca th trng cng vic mt kh nng t
ngng hot ng. Mt h thng tt khng ch c nh gi kh nng
to ra li nhun trong th trng theo xu hng, m cn l kh nng bo
tn vn trong giai on v hng. S tht bi trong vic t kim sot
l im yu ln nht ca n. y l l do ti sao mt s cng c c tnh
nng lc nh h thng hng vn ng ca Wilder hay ung ADX th
hin c tnh hu dng khi cho php nh giao dch xc nh uc th
trng no thch hp vi h thng giao ch no.
Mt hn ch khc l n lchng h tr vic d on s o chiu ca

th trung. Cc h thng tun theo xu hng hot ng cng vi xu
hng cho n khi c s chuyn hung. Chng khng nhn bit uc
khi no th trung chm duc ngng h tr hay khng c di hn, khi
no cc chi bo dao ng xut hin s phn k, hay khi no sng th
nm ca m hnh sng Elliott hin th r rng. a s cc nh giao dch
tr v th phng th vo thi im v bt u thu li nhun. Tuy
nhin, nhng h thng ny hot dng theo v th cho n kh th trng

i hng. Chnh vi th, mi vic ty thuc vo cch thc s dng h
thng ca nh giao dch. Tc l iu ny nn uc thc hin mt cch
m qung hay uc kt hp vi nhng yu t k thut khc trong mt
k hoch giao dch. N dua chng ta dn vi vn d lin quan n cch
s dng h thng my mc nh mt chi bo k thut khc trong qu
trnh d on v giao dch.
S dng tn hiu trn h thng nh mt thit b theo quy tc

Tn hiu trn h thng c th uc s dng n gin nh mt s xc
nhn trn my cng vi nhng yu t k thut khc. Thm chi nu h
thng khng due giao dch bng my v nhng yu t k thut khc
cng ang c s dng th tn hiu cng uc s dng gi nh giao
dch theo ng hung th trng chnh. Khng mt v th bn no c
a ra khi xu hng trn my tnh vn tng. Khng mt v th mua no
uc dia raicHrxu" hungTrir my tnh vn gim. (y cng l mt
phuong php cm gin nh giao dch phn tch c bn c th s dng
nhng thit b k thut nh l b lc hoc tin hnh cc nh giao dch
ca h). Hng pht trin ca xu hung l yu t quyt nh. Tn hiu
trn my h tr cc nh giao dch trnh c mt s nguy c bt n.
Chng c th ngn nh giao dch khi nguy c sp by chm inh v
y (chm inh v y l chin thut nm ly then c giao dch ng
vo lc gi ang dnh hoc y, thng thng, him khi ta bt uc
gi ngay ti thi im n chm inh hoc y m chi mong bt c
vo lc lch vi thi im l tung t nht).
Vic s dng tn hiu nh l thit b bo ng

Tn hiu trn h thng c th duc s dng nh mt thit b bo ng
nhng s thay i xu hung gn nht. Nh giao dch.chi cn lic nhn
tin hiu xu hung v lp tc s thy c mt s thay di. Cng dng
ny cng uc pht hin khi nghin cu cc th. My tnh thc hin
nhim v nhanh hon, d dng hon v c cn c chc chn hon. Kh
nng t ng ha nhng tn hiu h thng v bo dng cho nh giao
414 John J. Murphy
dch khi tin hiu xut hin l mt gi tr qu bu dc bit l khi th

trng ti chnh pht trin rng ln nh th ny.
CN S GIP CA CHUYN GIA?

Mt trong nhng sn phm ca Omega Research c gi l
TradeStation s cung cp hng lot dch v chuyn gia (Omega
Research, Miami, FL 33174, (305) 551-9991). Ch cn nhc my gi
cho dch v Expert Commentary, bn s nhn c din gii v tt c
cc chi bo da trn tinh hnh th trung hin ti. Cc phn tch vin
ca Omega s xc nh nhng chi bo no hiu qu nht trong th
trng lc v din gii chng cho bn. Hn na, dch v ny cn c
hai cng c chuyn mn khc l chi bo dng xu hng t ng
(Trendlines Automatic Indicator) gip bn v ung xu hung v ch
bo m hnh nn Nht s dc th hnh nn cho bn.
KIM TRA H THNGTHOC T TO H THNG RING
Omega Research cng s hu mt th vin cc h thng giao dch ph

bin. Bn c th kim tra , thay i chng hoc l to mt h thng cho
ring mnh. Tt c cc cng c v d th ca Omega, nhng chi bo, h
thng giao dch u dc vit bng mt ngn ng d hiu gi l
Easylanguage. Chng trnh Easylanguage thu nhn quan im giao
dch ca bn bng ngn ng thung, sau chuyn sang dng mt m
chy chuDng trinh. Khng gi c th pht trin, kim tra, ti uu ha
v t ng ha cc tng giao dch ca bn ngoi mt chung trnh
my tnh. My tinh c th to ra cc lnh giao dch dch tung ng v
bo ng cho bn thng qua my nhn tin ca bn v s xut hin ca
cc du hiu. (Trong Ph lc c, chng ta s s dng chung trnh
Easylanguage v TradeStation th hin cch t to mt h thng giao
dch cho ring mnh).
TM LC
Chng ny gii thiu hai h thng khc ca Welles Wilder - Parabol

v Hung vn ng. Parabol c th sinh ra nhng tn hiu giao dch c
ch nhng khng th s dng c lp. Hai ng DI c th uc s
dng nh lb lc trn h thng Parabol hay bt k mt h thng no
tun theo xu hung nhy cm. L mt phn ca h thng DMI, ng
ADX to ra mt phng php xc nh loi th trung m bn ang
giao dch: liu l th trng theo xu hng hay khng r xu hng.
ng ADX tng th hin c xu hung v nghing v s dng ng
trung bnh di ng. ng ADX gim th hin s giao dch theo bin
v nghing v cc chi bo dao dng. Chng ta cng s dng cc vi
d v Parabol trnh by nhng mt tt v xu ca h thng giao dch
theo xu hng. Chng hot dng hiu qu khi c mt xu hng ang
din ra nhung li tr nn v dng trong thi gian giao dch theo bin
. Bn c th nhn thy s khc bit. Chng ta cng ni v kh
nng ca nhng h thng giao dch bng my. Nhng h thng ny loi
tr cm xc ca con ngi v cc k hu dng ti nhng hon cnh th
trung thch hp. Chng cn uc s dng lm cc bo ng k thut
v kt hp vi phn tch c bn. (Xem ph lc c v s giao dch theo
h thng)
R rng l my tnh lm mt cuc cch mng trong vic phn tch

v giao dch th trng ti chinh. Mc d mi quan tm chnh ca chng
ta l phn tch k thut, nhung cc chung trnh my tinh cng cho
php chng ta kt hp phn tch k thut vi phn tch c bn. Khi
phin bn u tin ca cun sch dc pht hnh vo nm 1986, ch ph
trang b mt phn mm my tnh thc hin phn tch k thut l
5000$. Gi phn mm tt nht ngy nay ch mt $2000. Hy xem mi
th thay i nh th no. Bn c th c c mt chic my tnh cu
hnh mnh chi vi mt khon tin dui $2000. Hu nh cc gi phn
inin u c gi di $300. Nhng phn mm tt hn c th cung cp
cho bn d liu gi trong hn 20 nm c cha trong mt chic a
CD-Rom vi gi rt thp v khng c ph ph.
416 John J. Murphy
Mt cng dng khc l s h tr chuyn nghip t cc gi phn

mm ny. Sch hng dn s dng bao gm cc cng thc k thut v
tt c nhng din gii. Kh nng ca my tnh ngy nay cho php theo
di th trung tri phiu v chng khon ton cu cng hng ngn
chng khon ring l khc, nhung khng cp n qu u t. Trong
Chng 17, chng ta s ni v mt cng dng phc tp hon ca my
tinh trong vic pht trin cc mng trung lp. Nhng r rng, nu bn
nghim tc vi th trng u t v giao ch ti chnh th nn c mt
chic my tnh v hc cch s dng n.
CHNG 16
Chin lc qun l ti sn
v giao dch
GII THIU
Cc phng php k thut dung trong d on v giao dch cc th

trung ti chnh c gii thiu trong nhng chung trc. Trong
chung ny, chng ta s hon thin qu trnh giao dch hn bng cch
b sung vo quy trnh d on th trng cc yu t quyt nh ca
Chin thut giao dch (hay xc nh thi im) v kha cnh thung b
b qua l qun l ti sn. Khng c mt chung trinh giao dch no
hon thin nu khng hi d ba yu t trn.
BA YU T GIAO DCH THNH CNG
Bt k mt chng trnh giao dch thnh cng no cng phi bao gm

ba yu to quan trng l: d on gi, xc nh thi im v qun l ti
sn.
1. D on gi tc l d on xu hng ca mt th trng. y l
bc u tin trong vic ra quyt nh giao dch. Qu trnh d
on s xc nh c liu nh giao dch nn u c gi ln hay
gi xung. N tr li cho cu hi liu nn gia nhp th trung
bn mua hay bn bn. Nu nh giao dch d on gi sai th nhng
diu kin sau s khng cn ngha g na.
418 John J. Murphy
2. Chin thut giao dch, hay xc nh thi im, quyt nh im

gia nhp v thot khi th trung. Xc dinh thi im l cng vic
c vai tr quyt nh trong giao dch tng lai. Bi v mc k
qu thp v cp n by cao nn nh giao dch khng c
php c nhiu sai st. Ta hon ton c th i ng hung ca th
trng nhung vn c th mt tin nu chn sai thi im, v bn
cht, xc nh thi im gn nhu l mt cng vic mang tinh k
thut. Chnh v th, cho d nh giao dch thin v phn tch c a bn
thi vn nn s dng cng c k thut nhn nh im gia nhp
v thot khi th trng dt khot.
3. Qun l ti sn l cch phn phi tin bc ca bn, bao gm vic
xy dng nhng danh mc du t, a dng ha danh mc ra
sao, nn du t bao nhiu tin hoc mc ri ro l bao nhiu,
cch s dng lnh dng, h s li nhun/ri ro, phi lm g sau
mt giao dch thnh cng hoc tht bi, nn giao dch thn trng
hay tht tch cc.
Ta c th tm tt mt cch rt on gin l vic d on gi gip nh

giao dch bit nn lm g (mua hay bn), cn vic xc nh thi im
gip nh giao dch dua ra quyt nh khi no nn thc thi ng thi xc
nh mc tin hnh giao dch. ti d on gi c ni n
trong nhng chuong trc. Chng ta s tip tc tm hiu hai kha cnh
khc ca n trong chng ny. Chng ta s tho lun v qun l ti sn
trc v n l vn d cn cn nhc khi quyt nh nhng chin thut
giao dch thch hp.
QUN L TI SN
Sau nhiu nm lm vic trong b phn nghin cu ca mt cng ty mi

gii ln, ti chuyn sang lnh vc qun tri ti sn v nhanh chng khm
ph ra s khc bit gia vic a ra chin lc giao dch cho ngui khc
v vic t thc hin n. Tht ngc nhin l phn kh nht trong giao
dch khng h lin quan n chin luc giao dch. Cch ti phn tch
th tnrng v xc nh im gia nhp v thot khi khng thay i
nhiu. Thay i nm tm quan trng ca vic qun tri ti sn. Ti thy
ngc nhin v tm nh hng ca nhng yu t nh quy m ti khon, .

t hp danh mc, v s tin c cam kt cho tng giao dch i vi
kt qu cui cng.
Ti l tin d ca qun tr ti sn. Trong ngnh cng nghip ti chnh

ny lun hin din v s cng ty v dch v t vn cung cp cho khch
hng ca h nhng li khuyn nn mua hay bn ci g v khi no th
nn lm vic . Tuy nhin, h li khng ni nhiu v mc ngun
vn m nh giao dch nn cam kt cho tng giao dch.
Mt s nh giao dch tin rng qun tr ti sn l phn quan trng nht

ca mt chng trnh giao dch, thm ch quan trng hn c bn thn
giao dch. Ti thi khng chc chn n mc , nhung li khng ngh
l chng ta c th tn ti m khng c n. Qun tr ti sn gii quyt
nhiu vn d sng cn. N cho nh giao dch bit duc cch thc qun
l tin bc ca h. Bt k mt nh giao dch gii no cng c th thng
cuc trong cue-a di hn. Qun trrtin bc gia tng kh nng tn ti
ca nh giao dch c th tip tc cuc chi trong di hn.
M t s hng d n chung v qun tr ti sn
Phi tha nhn rng vn qun tr ti sn v cng phc tp, i hi

nhng phng php nh gi thng k hin i. Chng ta s tip cn
phng php mt mc tng i n gin. Sau y l mt s
hng dn chung h tr vic phn phi ti sn v xc nh uc mc
tham gia giao dch ca mt ngui. Nhng hung dn ny ch yu l
dnh cho giao dch tung lai.
1. Tng qu tin u t nn c gii hn mc 50% tng s vn.

Phn cn li nn uc u tu vo Tri phiu Chnh ph. C ngha
l ti bt k mt thi im no cng khng nn qu mt na
s von vo cuc choi. Nn dnh na cn li nhiri phn d ti
cho khong thi gian ti t v thua l. V d, nu ti khon c
100.000 th chi nn dng 50.000 giao dch.
2. Tng s tin vo mt th trng bt k nn c gii hn di
10-15% tng s vn s hu. Trong mt ti khon c 100.000$ thi
420 John J. Murphy
chi nen sir dung 10.000-15.000$ de ky quy. Dieu ny se ngn nh

giao dich do qua nhieu tien vo mt giao dich.
3. Tong so tien du tu co nguy ccr mao hiem trong bat cut thi tru&ng
nao ciing nen dwqc gicri han dtr&i mite 5% tong so von sff hint. 5%
dy l khon tien nh du tu sn sang chju mat neu giao dich
khng hieu qua. Dy l mt dieu quan trong trong viec quyet djnh
so luomg hop dong giao dich v khong cch dt lenh dng. Vi du
trong mt ti khon 100.000$, mc do mao hiem cho mt giao
djeh khng duoc vuot qu 5000$.
4. Tong m c ky quy trong bat c if nhm thi tru&ng no cng nen
duqc gtiri han duoi m c 20-25% tong so von s hu. Tieu chiny
nhm bo ve nh giao dich khng tham gia qu su vo mt thi
tntng. Cc thj trung trong mt nhm c xu hirdng cng van
dng voi nhau. Vng v bac thuc nhm kim loai quy v thuemg
van dng theo cng mt hung. Viec dt ton bo cc vi the vo
tng thi tnrng trong nhm se ph v nguyen tc da dang ha.
Viec d iu tu vo thi trung trong cng nhm nen duoc kiem sot.
NhQng hung dan ny duoc coi l kh chun muc doi vi giao dich
tuong lai nhimg c the duoc ty bien theo nhu cu ca nh giao djeh.
Mt so nh giao dich tich cuc hon nhng ngiri khc v nm vi the Ion
hon. S khc thi lai thn trong hon. Dieu quan trong can cn nhc l
mt s6 hinh thirc dang da dang ha nen duoc s dung - dieu cho ph6p
kh nng dir trfi ngun von v mt s6 dnh gi kh nng bo ve trong
giai doan thua lo. (Mc du nhng hung dan ny duoc p dung cho
giao dich tuong lai nhung nguyen tlc qun tri ti sn v phn phoi ti
sn chung c the duoc p dung cho moi hinh thc'dau tu.)
Da dang ha trong su* doi snh vi tp trung ha

D duoc coi l phuong php gii han ri ro nhimg di khi su da dang
ha lai mat cng dung do bi circmg dieu qu mc. Neu mt nh giao
djeh du tu cng lc vo qu nhieu thj trung thi so luong cc giao djeh
c loi nhunsc gim di nhieu do s6 luong cc giao djeh thua 15 qu ldn.
Vi vy, su hien dien ca vife cn bng cc yeu t khc nhau d l dat duoc
s kt hp tt nht cng nh s cn nhc k lng l diu cn thit.

Mt s nh giao dch thnh cng thung tp trung giao dch trong mt
nhm rt t th tning. iu uc coi l n khi cc th trng ny u
dang i theo xu hung. Mi tuong quan gia cc th trung cng nghch
th s da dng ha cng nhiu hcm. Vic nm gi v th mua bn loi
ngoi t khc nhau cng lc khng phi l cch da dng ha hon ho,
vi cc ng ngoi t thng c cng xu hng vi ng USD.
S d n g lnh dng (Proctective Stop)
Ti c bit khuyn khch cc bn $ dng lnh dng (chin luc gim

thiu cc khon thua l c th xy ra thng qua vic s dng lnh ct
l - ND). Tuy nhin, y thc s l mt ngh thut. Nh giao dch phi
kt hp uc cc yu t k thut ca th gi vi vic cn nhc qun
tr ti sn. Chng tis gii thiu v cch thc thc hin iu ny trong
phn ni v chin thut. Nh giao dch phi cn trng vi dao r.g
ca th trung. TRprung cng d ng, lnh dng cng m h. V
th, dy ta cn dn s hin din ca vic cn bng cc yu t khc
nhau nhm t uc s kt hp tt nht. Nh giao dch mun c lnh
dng gn gim thiu cc giao dch thua l. Tuy nhin, im dng
cng gn cng sinh ra nhiu lnh thanh l khng mong mun vo lc
th trung dao ng (hay ting n). Neu lnh dng nm qu xa thi
trnh c nhng ting n nhung li gy nhng khon l ln hon. Th
thut l ch tni c im t lnh nm gia khong .
H S L I NHUN/RI RO
Nhng nh giao dch ti ba nht trong th trng tung lai cng ch

kim duc li nhun trong 40% giao dch ca h. ng vy. Cn a
s l l. Vy h lm cch no thu c li nhun nu phn ln u
giao dch tht bi? Nguyn nhn l cc hp ng tuong lai chi yu cu
mc k qu thp, thm chi mt ch chuyn nh sai hung cng to ran
guy c buc phi thanh l v th. Do , nh giao dch cn phi kim
tra k lung nhiu ln truc khi bt kp bin ng m h ang tm kim.
422 John J. Murphy
y l vn v h s li nhun/ri ro. V a s cc giao dch u

tht bi nn cch duy nht thnh cng l bo m s lng ng -
la M trong cc giao dch thnh cng ln hn lng tin trong nhng
giao dch tht bi. thc hin vic ny, a s nh giao dch s dng
h s li nhun/ri ro. i vi mi giao dch tim nng, phi xc nh
mt mc tiu li nhun. Mc tiu li nhun phi dc uc cn
bng trong s tcmg phn vi kh nng thua l nu giao dch tht bi
(ri ro). Chun so snh ph bin l h s li nhun/ri ro 3/1, tc l li
nhun t nht phi bng ba ln thua l khi cn nhc mt giao dch.
Ko li nhun n v dy thua l i l mt trong nhng cu chm

ngm lu di trong giao dch. Li nhun ln thu uc bng cch duy
tr theo xu hung c nh. V chi mt s giao dch trong nm c th sinh
ra li nhun cao, nn cn ti a ha nhng thnh cng . Mt khc,nh
giao dch phi gim thiu nhng giao dch thua l. C th bn s ngc
nhin v s lng nh giao dch lm nguc li chm ngn ny.
GIAO DCH A V TH : t h e o x u h n g v g ia o d c h
Vic ko li nhun n khng n gin nh ta ngh. Hy tung tng

mt tnh hung trong th tning bt u hnh thnh xu hng, sinh
li nhun cao trong mt khong thi gian ngn. t nhin, xu hng
chng li vi ch bo dao ng bo hiu tnh trng mua qu mc v
xut hin ngng khng c trn d th. Bn s lm gi? Bn tin rng kh
nng tng gi rt cao, nhung li s mt khon li nhun trn giy t
(Khon li chua c thc trong mt khon u t. Khon li ny uc
tnh ton da trn so snh gi th trung hin ti vi chi phi ca nh du
t - ND.) nu th trung rt gi. Bn s lp tc chp ly c hi thu li
v hay s ch i qua t hiu chinh?
Mt gii php cho vn ny l hy lun giao dch da v th. Nhng

n v ny c chia nh thnh nhmg v th theo giao dch v theo xu
hng. Phn v th i theo xu hng uc s dng cho hot ng mua
di hn. Cc lnh dng ni lng ue s dng v th trng c nhiu
khng gian d dao ng hoc t hiu chnh. y l nhng v th to ra
li nhun ln nht trong di hn.
Phn giao dch trong danh mc u t theo giao dch c dng

ring cho giao dch mua bn tc thi trong ngn hn. Nu th trng t
uc mc tiu u tin - mc tiu nm gn mt ngung khng c v
mua qu mc - nh giao dch c th bn v th khi ang c li hoc mt
lnh dng s uc s dng vimc ch bo ton lri nhun. Nu sau
xu hung hi phc th c th khi phc li nhng v th d thanh t.
Tt nht l nn trnh giao dch ch mt dn v duy nht trong mt thi
im. S linh hot t cch giao dch a v th s to nn s khc bit
ln trong kt qu giao dch.
LM G SAU NHNG GIAI ON THNH CNG VTHAT b i?
Nh giao dch s lm gi sau khi thng li hoc thua l? Gi s ti sn

ca bn b gim i 50%, bn c thay i hung giao dch? Nu bn va
mt i mt na s tin, vic cn lm l phi nhn i nhng nhng g
cn li quay tr v iem khi ng. Bn s c la chn khc hay lp
li nhng g lm? Nu bn bo th thi kh nng ly li nhng g d
mt s rt thp.
Mt tnh th tin thoi lung nan s din ra sau mt thi k thng

li. n s lm gi vi chin thng ? Gi s bn nhn i s tin hoc
ti a ha cng dng ca n bng cch nhn i kch thuc v th. Tuy
nhin, nu nhu vy th iu g s din ra trong giai on thua l chc
khng th trnh uc sau ? Thay v chi mt 50% nhng g thng
uc, bn s mt tt c. Vi th, cu tr li cho hai cu hi ny khng
n gin nh trng hp u tin.
Mi nh giao dch ghi nhn cc nh v y, trng nhu mt th

gi. Xu hung ca th nn i ln nu nh giao dch kim uc tin
sau khi cn nhc k. Thi im t hi nht tng qui m du t l sau
mt thi k chin thng. iu ny chng khc gi hnh ng mua vo
trong mt th trng mua qu mc khi xu hung ang tng vy. Cch
khn ngoan hn (nhng li l diu di ngc vi bn nng con ngi
424 John J. Murphy
nht) l gia tng v th sau mt ln thua l. iuny cho thy rngn-

hng khon u t nng k s uc thc hin ti cc y thay v ti
in h .
CHIN t h u t g ia o d c h
Ngay khi hon thnh vic phn tch th trng, nh giao dch nn bit
trc liu h mun mua hay mun bn. y l thi im quan trng ca
vic qun tr ti sn. Buc cui cng chnh l mua hoc bn trn thc
th. y c th l phn kh khn nht ca quy trnh. Quyt nh cui
cng lin quan n cch thc v a im gia nhp th trng c da
trn s kt hp gia cc yu t k thut, thng s qun tr ti sn cng
nh loi lnh giao dch c p dng. Hy cng xem xt chng theo
trnh t .
S dng phn tch k thut trong vic xc nh thi im

Vic p dng nguyn tc k thut uc gii thiu trong nhng
chng trc vo quy trnh xc nh thi im chng phi l vn
mi m. Khc bit uy nht l vic xc nh thi im din ra trong
mt thi gian rt ngn. Khung thi gian y uc tnh theo ngy, gi
v pht ch khng phi l tun hay thng. Nhung nhng cng c k
thut c p dng th li khng h thay di. Thay vi xem li tt c cc
phng php phn tch k thut, chng ta s gii hn vn li thnh
nhng khi nim chung sau y.
1. Chin thut ti cc im ph v
2. S ph v ung xu hung
3. S dng ngng h tr v khng c
4. S dng s thoi li theo phn trm
5. S dng vng trng
Chin thut ph v<fc D bo hay phn ng li?

Nh giao dch lun i mt vi tnh th tin thoi lung nan ca vic
nm gi v th trc mt c ph v hay ti im ph v hoc sau khi

n din ra. y c s hin din ca cc l l ng h tng phng php
hoc c ba tnh hung c kt hp li. Nu nh giao dch dang giao
dch nhiu v th th mt v th c th uc nm gi trong tng trng
hp. Neu v th irc nm gi trc c ph v gi ln thi li ch nhn
c s l gi tt hn (thp hn) nu s ph v din ra. Tuy nhin,
kh nng tht bi cng cao hn. Vic ch i s ph v thc t s lm
gia tng kh nng thnh cng, nhng hu qu l mc gi gia nhp thi
trng sau s cao hn. Vic ch i mt s thoi li sau c ph v
l mt tha hip khn ngoan, min l s thoi li din ra. ng tic
l nhiu th trung si ng (thung l nhng th trng to li nhun)
khng phi lc no cng dnh c hi th hai cho nhng nh giao dch
kin nhn nh vy. Ri ro lin quan n vic ch i mt s thoi li
chnh l vic mt th trng.
Tnh hung .ny l y d cho .thy vic giao dch a v th s gip

dn gin o a tinh th tin thoi lung nan. Nh giao dch c th nm
gi v th nh trc c ph v, mua thm ti c ph v v thm mt t
na khi gi hiu chinh sau c ph v.
S ph v ng xu hng
y l mt trong nhng tn hiu mua bn hu hiu sm sa nht. Nu nh
giao dch hy vng gia nhp mt v th mi nh tn hiu thay i xu hng
hay mt l do thot khi mt v th c, th s ph v mt ng xu hung
hp l tin hiu hon ho nht. ung xu hung cn uc s dng xc
nh im gia nhp khi chng vn hnh nh l ngng h tr hoc khng
c. Vic mua vo trn ung xu hung tng chnh hoc bn ra trn ung
xu hng gim l chin luc xc nh thi im hiu qu.
S dng ngng h tr v ngng khng c

Ngng h tr v khng c l cng c hu hiu nht d xc nh im
gia nhp v thot khi th trung. S ph v ngung khng c l mt
tn hiu nm gi v th mua mi. Lnh dng sau c th uc t
ngay di im h tr gn nht. Lnh dng gn hon c th c th c
426 John J. Murphy
dt ngay dui diem ph v thuc the, ngung gi day co chc nng nhu
mot ngung ho tror. Su hoi phuc len ngung khng cur trong mot xu
hung gim hoc su rt gi xuong ngung ho tro trong mt xu hung
tng c the dugc s dung de khi dng v{ the mi hoc gia tng nhng
vi the cu c li. Khi dt lenh dng, ngung ho trcr v khng cu I nhng
diem c gi tri nhat.
Sir dung str thoi li theo ty le phan trm

Trong mt xu hung tng, su thoi li 40-60% tng gi truc d c the
duoc s dung cho vi the mi hoc gia tng vj the mua vo. Vi chng ta
ch yeu ni ve viec xc djnh thi diem nen su thoi li theo ty le phn
trm c the duoc p dung cho nhng hoat dng cuc ngn han. Vi du,
thoi li 40% sau c ph v tng gi c the l diem mua ly tung. Su
hoi phuc 40-60% thung tao ra cc ca hi bn hon ho trong xu hung
gim. Sur thoi li. theo ty le.phan trm cn duoc s dung trong do thi
theo ngy.
S dung vng trong gi

Vng trong gi Iren do thi c the duoc s dung mt cch hieu qu trong
viec xc djnh thi diem mua vo hoc bn ra. Vi du, sau mt bien dng
tng gi thi nhng vng trong co bn thung c chc nng nhu nhng
ngung ho tro. Nen mua khi gi roi xuong bien tren hoc ben trong
vng trong. C the dt lenh dng ben dui vng trong, bn khi gi hoi
phuc len bien dui hoc tien vo vng trong. C the gi lenh dng
ben tren vng trong.
Ket hop cc khi niem ky thuat
Cch su dung nhng khi niem ky thut ny hieu qu nht l ket hop
chng vi nhau. Hy nh ring khi chng ta ni dn van de xc dinh
thi diem, quyet dinh co bn lien quan den viec gia nhp hay thot khi
thi trung d duac dua ra. Tat c nhng gi chng ta cn lm dy chi
l gia nhp hoc thot khi thi trung. Neu tin hieu mua xut hien thi
nh giao djch mun mua mc gi tot nht c the. Gi s gi roi xuong
40-60% khu vc mua cho thy ngung h tr ni bt trong khu vc

v c th c mt vng trng. Ngoi ra cn c kh nng ng xu hng
tng quan trng gn .
Tt c nhng -yu t ny uc kt hp vi nhau xc nh thi

im giao dch. Quan trng l mua gn vng h tr, nhung phi nhanh
chng thot khi nu ngung h trv b ph v. S ph v mt ng
xu hng gim hp ni cc nh mt xu hung gim c th c s
dng lm tn hiu mua. Trong giai on hi phc xu hne gim, s
ph v ung xu hng tng hp c xem l c hi mua.
K T H P C C YU T K TH U T VI QUN T R T! SN
Bn cnh vic s dngcc im trn th, cc hng dn v qun tr

ti sn cng dng mt vai tr trong vic thit lp lnh dng. Gi s mt
ti khon c gi tr 100.000$ v s ng 10% tiu ch du ti a th t
ch vo th tning 10.000$. Ri ro ti a l 5%, tc 5000$. Chnh v
th, lnh ng ca v th chung uc t sao cho mc thua l khng
qu 5000$ nu giao dch khng hiu qu.
Mt lnh dng gn hn s cho phpnm gi v th ln hn. Mt lnh

dng ni lng hcm s lm gim quy m ca v th. Mt s nh giao dch
chi s dng cc yu t qun tr ti sn khi xc nh im t lnh dng.
Tuy nhin, vic dt lnh dng bn trn im khng c c hiu lc cho
mt v th bn hoc diri im h tr c hii lc l diu rt quan trng.
Vic s dng th hng ngy c th tr nn c bit hiu qu nu nh
giao dch mun c ngng h tr hoc khng c gn hn.
CC DNG LNH GIAO DCH
Vic chn ng loi lnh giao dch l yu cu cn thit trong quy trnh
chin thut. Chng ta s tp trung vo nhng dng lnh ph bin hn
nh th trng, gii hn, lnh dng, lnh dng gii hn, lnh n mc
(Market-if-Touched: gn ging nh lnh gii hn, chi khc ch n s
tr thnh lnh th trng khi mt giao dch mc gi c n nh
xy ra).
428 John J. Murphy
1. Lnh th trng (Market Order) hung dn nh mi gii ca bn

bit phi mua hoc bn gi hin ti. Lnh ny dc ua dng
trong nhng iu kin th trng nhanh hay khi nh giao dch
mun chc chn rng v th c nm gi v nhm ngn nga
nguy C b l nhng bin ng th trung nng ng tim nng.
2. Lnh gii hn (Limit Order) xc nh mt mc gi m nh giao

dch s hoc chp nhn. Mt lnh gii hn mua uc t thp
hon gi hin ti v l mc gi cao nht nh giao dch sn sng
tr. Lnh gii hn bn dc dt cao hn gi hin ti v l gi thp
nht ngi bn sn sng bn. V d, loai lnh ny uc s dng
sau mt c ph v tng gi trong ngui mua mun mua khi gi
gim xung gn ngng h tr.
3. M t lnh dng l (Stop Order), cn c gi l lnh ct l hay

lnh bn t ng (Stop-loss-orders), c th uc s dng thit
lp mt v thjni, hoc bo ton li nhun. Mt lnh ch mua
(buy stop) uc da ra trn mc gi th trng v mt lnh ch
bn di gi th trung (ngc vi lnh gii hn). Khi gi chm
im dng, lnh ny s tr thnh lnh th trng v uc thc hin
mc gi tt nht c th. Trong mt v th mua, lnh ch bn
uc t thp hon gi th trung hn ch thua l. Sau khi th
trung dch chuyn theo hung tng gi, lnh ny c th uc
nng ln d bo ton li nhun (mt lnh dng trt gi). Mt
lnh ch mua c t trn ngung khng c khi ng v th
mua kh gi ph v i ln. Vi lnh dng s tr thnh lnh th
trng nn gi thc th c th vt qua gi t lnh dng, dc bit
trong th trng vn ng nhanh.
4. Lnh dng gii hn (Stop Limit Order) l loi lnh kt hp c lnh

dng ln lnh gii hn. Loi lnh ny n nh c mc gi lnh
dng, nai giao dch c kch hot ln mc gi gii hn. Mt khi
uc ua ra th lnh dng tr thnh lnh gii hn. Dng lnh ny
s hu ch nu nh giao dch mun mua hoc bn ti im ph v,
nhng cng mun kim sot mc gi chi tr hoc nhn v.
5. Lnh n mirc (Market-if-Touched - MIT) tng t lnh gii hn,

ngoi tr vic n ch tr thnh lnh th trng khi gi chm gi
gii hn. Mt lnh MIT mua c dt di gi th trumg ging
lnh gii hn. Khi gi chm gi gii hn thi giao dch c thc
hin. Dng lnli ny c mt u im ln hn lnh gii hn. Lnh
gii hn mua uc t di mc gi th tning khng bo .m s
uc thc hin cho d gi chm gi gii hn. Gi c th bt ln
t gi gii hn m khng thc hin lnh. Mt lnh MIT hu hiu
nht nu nh giao dch mun mua khi gi gim nhng li khng
mun b l th trng sau khi gi chm gi gii hn.
Mi loi lnh thch hp trong khong thi gian nht nh no vi

nhng u v khuyt im ring. Lnh th trung bo m c mt v th
nhng c th phi chy theo th trng. Lnh gii to ra nhiu kh
nng kim sot hn cng nh gi tt hn nhng li c nguy c b l th
trung. Lnh dng cng khin nh giao dch b l c hi nu gi vt
qua gi gii hn. Lnh dng uc khuyn khch s dng ct 1 v
bo ton li nhun. Tuy nhin, vic s dng lnh ch bn hoc ch mua
d khi ng v th c th gy ra kt qu khng tt. Lnh MIT c bit
hu ch nhung khng uc php s dng trn mt s sn giao dch. Hy
lm quen vi nhiu dng lnh khc nhau v bit uc u im cng nh
khuyt im ca chng. Mi loi du hu ch mt phn no d trong
k hoch giao dch ca bn. Hy chc rng bn tm duc loi lnh
c php s dng trn nhiu sn giao dch ti chnh khc nhau.
T T H HNG NGY EN T H G I TRO N G NGY
Vi vic xc nh thi im gn vi s bin ng th trung trong ngn

hn nn th trong ngy c bit hu ch. Khng th b qua d th
trong ngy nu giao dch theo ngy, mc d d khng phi l trng tm
ca chng ta. Chng ta c bit quan tm n cch thc m hot ng
trong ngy c th uc s dng h tr nh giao dch trong vic xc
nh thi im mua v bn mt khi quyt nh c bn lin quan n
vic gia nhp hoc thot khi th trng uc a ra.
430 John J. M urphy
H nh 16.1 M t th thanh 5 p h t ca hp ng tng lai S P 500 th hin

giao dch tm n g 1.5 ngy. 5 tn hiu stochastics cuoi cng kh hiu qu. th
hng ngy c dng cho nhng giao dch rt ngn hn.
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H nh 16.2 th thanh 10 p h t ca m t hp ng tng lai Tri p h i i. Chinh

p h the hin 3 ngy giao dch. Hai tn hiu Stochastics cui cng tn hiu
bn sau 10:10 sng ngy 26/2 v tin hiu m ua cng g i sng hm sau.
Hnh 163 thi thanh gi ca hp dngtng lai ng Mc c th hin

10 ngy giao dch. C ba tin hiu stochastics. M t tin hiu mua ngy 7/2 ri
tn hiu bn ngy 24/2 v mt tin hiu mua ngy 26/2.
C n nhc li rng quy trnh giao ch phi c bt u vi vin

cnh di hn v chuyn dn sang ngn hn hn. Vic phn tch bt u
vi th hng thng v hng tun cho nhng tm nhn di hn. Sau
, th hng ngy c n v y l c s nn tn g cho quyt
nh giao dch thc t. th rong ngy l cng c cui cng c
xem xt c chnh xc cao hon. th di hn cung cp tm uc
tnh hnhxth trng. th trong ngy cho php nghin cu chi tit hn.
Cc nguyn tc k thut c tho lun c th uc quan st r rng
trn nhng th c tnh nhy cm cao ny. (Xem hnh 16.1-16.3)
V I C s D N G C C I M T R C T R O N G N G Y
c th gia nhp th trng S 1T han vi nhng lnh dng st hn,

mt s nh giao dch th d on gi ng ca bng cch s dng cc
im trc. K thut ny kt hp 7 mc gi quan trng trong 4 giai on
th gian. 7 im trc l ngng cao nht, thp nht, gi ng ca ngy
432 John J. Murphy
hm truc v gi m ca, cao nht, thp nht v gi ng ca ngy hm

nay. 4 giai on thi gian ca ngy giao dch hin ti l lc m ca, 30
pht sau khi m ca, gia ngy (12:30 gi New York) v 35 pht trc
gi ng ca.
Chng l nhng khong thi gian trung binh v c th c iu

chnh theo tng th trng ring l khc nhau. Quan im dy l s
dng cc im trc lm cng c xc nh thi im khi nh giao dch
tin rng th trng dang chm dinh hoc y. Tn hiu mua hoc bn
xut hin khi im trc b ph v trong ngy. Cng xut hin tr th tn
hiu cng chc chn. Vi t cch nh l minh ha cho mt tn hiu mua,
nu gi m ca th trung nm trn mc gi ng ca ca ngy hm
tmc, nhng thp hom ngung cao nht ngy hm , lnh ch mua
uc t trn ngng cao ca ngy hm truc. Nu lnh ch mua uc
chn, lnh dng bn iTc t di ngng thp nht ca ngy hin ti.
35 pht true khrng ca nu khng c v th no c nm gi th
mt lnh ch mua c dt bn trn ngung cao nht ca ngy hin ti
v lnh ch bn bn dui gi m ca hm nay. Nhn chung, khng c
hnh dng no dc thc hin trong 30 pht u giao dch. Cng v
sau, cc im trc uc thu hp li thnh im dng l. Yu cu cui
cng i vi tn hiu mua i hi gi phi ng ca bn trn gi ng
ca ngy hm trc v gi m ca ngy hm nay.
TM LC HNG DAN v q u n t r t i s n v g i a o d c h
Danh sch di y lit k nhng nguyn tc quan trng v qun tr ti

sn v giao dch:
1. Hy giao dch theo hung ca th trung trung gian.

2. Hy mua khi gi rt trong xu hirng tng, hy bn khi gi hi
phc trong xu hng gim.
3. Hy gia tng li nhun, hn ch thua l.
4. Hy s dng lnh dng hn ch thua l.
5. Khng giao dch mt cch hp tp, phi c k hoch c th.
6. Hy ln k hoch v lm theo k hoch.

7. Hy s dng cc nguyn tc qun tr ti sn.
8. Hy da dng ha danh mc u t nhng khng uc lm dng.
9. Hy s dng h s li nhun/ri ro thp nht l 3/1.
10. Khi gia tng v th, hy lm theo nhng buc sau:
a. Mi lp k tip nn nh hn ln trc.
b. Chi b sung nhng v th thnh cng.
c. Khng bao gi b sung v th thua l.
. iu chnh lnh dng theo im ph v.
11. ng bao gi thc hin yu cu tng k qu, ng nm tin qua
ca s.
12. ng cc v th l truc nhng v thli.
13. Ngoi trCrtihrrg giach' rt n g in hn, nn ra quyt nh vo
lc th trng ng ca.
14. Thc hnh t di hn n ngn hn
15. S dng th trong ngy hiu chnh im gia nhp v thot
khi th trng.
16. Hy tht snh si trong giao dch hng ngy ri mi chuyn sang
giao dch trong ngy.
17. Hy c gng b qua nhng l phi thng thng, ng qu rp
khun vi nhng trong g uc pht ngn t cc phutmg tin
truyn thng ti chnh.
18. Hy cm thy thoi mi khi vo th thiu s. Nu bn ang
ng hung ca th trng, c th s ng s bt ng vi bn.
19. Phn tch k thut l mt k nng v k nng s hon thin
cng vi s tri nghim thc t v nghin cu. Phi lun lun hc
hi.
20. Hy don gin ha mi th, s phc tp khng phi lc no cng
tt.
434 John J. Murphy
NG DNG VO CHNG KHON

Chin thut giao dch dc ni n trong chung ny (v c cc cng
c phn tch nhng chutmg truc) cng uc p dng uc cho th
trng chng khon nu c s iu chinh. Trong khi trng tm ca giao
dch tng lai l xu hung ngn v trung hn, thi th trung chng
khon li l trung v di hn. Giao dch chng khon t tp trung vo
nhng giai on ngn hn v t s dng d th hng ngy. Tuy nhin,
nguyn tc chung th vn tung t i vi vic phn tch v giao dch
th trung, cho d chng c hin din trn sn giao dch chng khon
Chicago hay New York .
PHN B TI SN
Cc hng dn v qun tr ti sn c trnh by trong chung ny ch
yu c lin quan ch yu n giao dch tcmg lai. Tuy nhin, c nhiu
nguyn tc trong c lin quan n vic a dng ha danh mc u
t v phn b ti sn. Phn b ti sn l cch phn chia danh mc gia
cc loi hnh chng khon, tri phiu v tin mt (thung theo dng qu
tin t hoc Tri phiu Chnh ph). N cng lin quan n s lung-
danh mc u t uc phn b cho cc th trng nc ngoi. Hcm na,
n cn l lung c phiu nm gi dn tri gia cc lnh vc th trung
v nhm ngnh khc nhau. Gn y, n cn lin quan dn s lung
danh mc du t uc phn b cho th trng hng ha truyn thng.
TI KHON C QUN L V CC QU H TNG

Ti khon c qun l c mt trn th trung tung lai vi nm gn
y v to ra phng tin cho nhng ngn mun u t vo th trng
tng lai nhung li thiu kin thc. Ti khon c qun l to ra
mt dng tip cn qu h h tung vo giao dch tung lai. Mc d
uc u t vo tt c cc th trung tng lai - bao gm tin t, hng
ha, tri phiu v chi s chng khon tucmg lai - cc ti khon ny vn
to ra mt s php o lung quy trnh a dng ha danh mc u t t
tri phiu v chng khon. Mt phn ca vic a dng ha c th
hin nh thc tin giao dch t c v th mua ln v th bn. Phn khc

l t khu vc hng ha. Tuy nhin, kh nng u t mt phn ti sn
vo phn khc hng ha c thc hin mt cch d dng hn nhiu
bt u t nm 1997.
c khai trng vo thng Ba nm 1997, Oppenheimer Real

Assets l qu h h tng u tin chuyn u t vo th trng hng
ha. Bng vic u t vo nhng k phiu hng ha, qu ny c th to
nn mt danh mc hng ha theo di chi s hng ha Goldman Sachs
bao gm 22 th trng hng ha. V thung c xu hng nguc vi tri
phiu v chng khon, hng ha to ra mt cng c a dng ha hon
ho. Mt phng thc a dng ha thich hp i hi vic phn b ti
sn vo cc nhm th trng c mi tng quan thp vi nhau - ni
cch khc, chng phi lun khng cng xu hng. Hng ha p ng
ng tiu chi .
y, chng ti s trnh by hai l do. Mt l kh phn bit qun

tri ti sn v phn b ti sn. Hai l bn thn th trng cng rt kh
phn loi. Trong hai chung tip theo, bn s thy c mi lin h gn
gi gia th trng tucmg lai v chng khon, v ti sao nh u t
chng khon cn phi bit uc nhng din bin trn th trng tng
lai. Chuong 17 s gii thiu v k nng phn tch l' thut lin th
trng.
K THUT PHN TCH TH TRNG (MARKET PROFILE)

Chng ta khng th kt thc ch th hng ngy m khng nm
c mt trong nhng phuong php k thut tin tin nht i vi giao
dch trong ngy c tn gi l K thut phn tch th trng (Market
Profile - th phn tch th trung vi gi uc th hin trc ng,
thi gian/hot ng uc th hin trn trc honh). K thut giao dch
ny uc xy dng bi Peter Steilmayer, mt cu chuyn gia giao dch
trn sn Chicago. Steilmayer to ra mt phng php uc nhiu ngui
say m trong c thp nin, c bit trong th trng tng lai. TUy
nhin, K thut phn tch th trng c th uc p dng vo cc loi
436 John J. Murphy
chng khon ph thng. N khng phi l phng php d nm bt.

Tuy nhin, cc nh giao dch tng s dng phcmg php ny li nh
gi rt cao. Dennis Hynes, mt chuyn gia v K thut phn tch Th
trng s din gii cch tip cn ny trong Ph lc B.
P hn tch k th u t th tr n g ti chnh 437
CHNG 17
Mi lin h gia
th trng chng khon
v tng lai: Phn tch
lin th trng
Khi n bn du tin ca cun sch ny uc xut bn nm 1986 thi s

phn chia gia th trung hng ha tng lai vi nhng th trng
truyn thng nh chng khon v tri phiu bt u hnh thnh. Hai
thp k trc, hng ha uc xem l nhng th nh bp, u nnh, tht
heo, vng v du m. Nhng hng ha truyn thng ny c th uc
trng trt, ue khai thc hoc duc tinh lc. S thay i mnh m din
ra t nm 1972 n 1982 vi s xut hin ca hp ng tng lai v
tin t, Tri phiu Chnh ph, v ch so chng khon tng lai. Thut
ng hng ha uc s dng trong cc giao dch tucmg lai v tri phiu
v c phiu hu nh khng phi l hng ha m l nhng hp ng
tng lai. K t , th gii ca cc giao dch tung lai trn ln vi
th gii ca nhng c phiu v tri phiu truyn thng v chng hu nh
khng b chia tch. Cui cng, cc phng php phn tch k thut vn
duc s dng phn tch nhng th trng ti chnh khc nhau
c p dng mt cch ph bin.
438 John J. Murphy
Vo mt ngy no , gi tng lai ca ng USD, tri phiu, chi s

chng khon u c nim yt - v chng vn ng ng thi vi
nhau. Hng vn ng ca ba loi th trung ny b nh hung bi
nhng gi dang din ra trn cc sn giao dch hng ha. Giao dch lp
trnh (Program Trading) - giao dch din ra khi gi ca hp ng tng
lai s&p 500 chch vi chi s tin mt s&p 500 - l mt thc t din ra
hng ngy. V nhng l do ny, nu cng hiu v giao dch tng lai bao
nhiu th bn cng thu hiu v ton b th trng ti chinh by nhiu.
R rng l din bin ca th trng tomg lai c th tc ng mnh

n th tnrng chng khon. Nhng tn hiu cnh bo sm v nguy co
lm pht hay cc xu hng li sut uc nhn bit trn cc sn giao
dch tuomg lai trc, v diu ny thng xc nh chiu hng gi
chng khon ti bt c thi im no. Xu hng ca ng USD cho ta
thng tin v sc khe ca nn kinh t M - iu gy tc ng ln n
thu nhp ca doanh nghip cng nh vic nh gi gi c phiu. Nhung
s kt hp cn tin su hn. Th trang chng khon uc chia thnh
cc mng v cc nhm ngnh. S lun chuyn ra vo gia cc nhm
ny thung bt ngun t nhng hot ng trn th trng tng lai.
Cng vi s in mnh khng ngng ca cc qu h tuong, dc bit l
cc qu chuyn ngnh, kh nng vn ha i vi vic lun chuyn lnh
vc thnh cc nhm c li v thot khi nhng nhm thua t tr nn
n gin hn nhiu.
Trong chng ny, chng ta s kho st ch phn tch lin th

trung vi trng tm l stung tc ln nhau gia tin t, hng ha, tri
phiu v chng khon. Thng thip chnh ca chng ta l cch thc lin
kt cht ch vi nhau gia bn th trng ny. Chng ti s chi cho bn
cch s dng th trung tng lai trong qu trnh lun chuyn cc lnh
vc v nhm ngnh thuc phm vi th trng chng khon.
PHN TCH LIN TH TRNG

Nm 1991, ti vit mt cun sch c ta Phn tch K thut Lin Th
trng (Intermarket Technical Analysis). Cun sch ny m t s tng
P hn tch k th u t th tr n g ti chnh 439
tc ln nhau uc tha nhn trn ton th gii gia cc th trng ti

chnh khc nhau. Cun sch cung cp cc chi dn hayphc tho gip
gii thch s lin kt gia cc th trng khc nhau v chi ra mc
ph thuc ln nhau gia chng. Tin c bn ca phn tch k thut
l tt c cc th trng ti chnh u ph thuc ln nhau, c th trung
quc t ln th trng trong nuc. Nhng mi quan h ny c th thay
i ngu nhin, nhng lun hin din theo cch ny hay cch khc.
Cui cng, chng ta khng th thu hiu mt cch y v nhng g
ang din ra trn mt th trung- chng hn th trng chng khon -
nu khng hiu c din bin trn mt th trng khc. Bi v cc th
trng ph thuc ln nhau nn phn tch k thut tr nn cc k thun
li. Tt c cc cng c k thut uc gii thiu trong cun sch ny u
c th p dng cho tt c cc th trng, iu to iu kin thun li
cho vic ng dng phn tch lin th trng. Bn c th hiu c ti
sao kh nng quan st th trn nhiu th trng s l mt li th trong
mt th trng nh chin trng ngy nay.
GIAO DCH LP TRNH: s LIN KT TH lT y u

Khng u m s kt ni gia th trng chng khon v th trng
tng lai li tr nn rng hon trong mi quan h gia ch s tin mt
s&p 500 v chi s hp ng tung lai s&p 500. Thng thung, hp
ng Urcmg lai giao dch vi gi cao hn chi s tin mt. Mc chnh
lch dc xc nh bi mc li sut ngn hn, li tc ca chnh hp
ng chi s s&p 500, v s ngy cn li n hn ca hp ng tuong
lai. Mc vt tri (chnh lch) ny gia ch s tng lai s&p 500 so
vi chi s tin mt s bin mt khi hp dng tuong lai n hn. (Xem
hnh 17.1). Mi ngy, cc trung tm giao dch tnh ton gi tr chnh
lch thc - c gi l gi tr hp l. Gi tr hp l khng i sut phin
giao dch, nhng dn thay i trong mi phin mi. Khi mc vt tri
ca th trung tng lai dch chuyn cao hn gi tr hp l i vi ch
s tin mt mt lng c nh, giao dch da trn chnh lch gi s
duc kch hot v uc gi l mua theo lp trnh (Program Buying).
Khi hp ng tucmg lai c gn kt qu mt thit qu mc vi chi s tin
440 John J. Murphy
Hnh 17.1 Cc hp ng tng lai s&p 500 thirng c gi giao dch tri hn
chi s tin mt nh trn th. Hy-eh mc chnh lch thu hp khi hp (tng
long lai thng Ba gn n hn.
mt, nh giao dch lp trnh bn hp ng tng lai v mua mt lot

chng khon ca s&p 500 a hai ch th trn v li mc thch hp.
Kt qu ca vic mua lp trinh l s nng ng ca th trng chng
khon v n y chi s tin mt s&p soo ln. Bn theo lp trnh
(Pmgram Seing) l hnh ng ngc li v xut hin khi s chnh
lch gia ch s tng lai $0 vi chi s tin mt thp hn gi tr hp l
ca n. Trong trng hp ny, bn theo lp trinh c kch hot, n
n hot ng mua vo chi s tung lai s&p 500 v bn r chng
khon. Bn lp trnh l hot ng tiu cc i vi th trung. a s cc
nh giao dch hiu uc mi quan h gia hai th trung gn kt ny.
Nhng g m h thng khng hiu chinh l vic nhng bin ng bt
ng trong hp ng tng lai s&p 500 - nhng bin ng kch hoi
giao dch lp trnh - thng do cc bin ng bt ng trong cc th
tmng tcmg lai khc, chng hn tri phiu, gy ra.
M I L IN H G I A T R I P H I U V C H N G K H O N
Th trng chng khon chu nh hirng t chiu hng li sut. Chiu

hung li sut (li tc) c th c gim st tng pht bng cch theo
di s bin ng ca hp ng tang lai Tri phiu Chnh ph. G i tri
phiu vn ng ngiic chiu vi li sut. Chnh v th, khi gi tri phiu
tng, li sut s gim. iu ny thng c coi tch cc i v i th
trng chng khon. S rt gi tri phiu, tc li nhun tng, c coi
i tiu cc i vi th trng chng khon. Theo quan im ca chuyn
gia phn tch k thut, vic so snh th hp ng tirng lai Tri phiu
Chnh ph vi th ch s tin mt s&p 500 hoc hp ng tng lai
c lin quan sc tr nn d dng. n s thy chng di chuyn cng
hng vi nhau (Xem hnh 17.2). Trong ngn hn, s thay i xu hung
Hnh 17.2 S gia tng gi tri phiu thcmg t cho gi chng khon. Th
tMg ri phiu chm dy nm 982, 984, 1988, 199 v 1995 bo trc
nhng bin i ca chng khon. Gi tri phiu chm nh nm 1987,1990 v
994 bo hiu mt nm ti t ca chng khon.
Trong mt mi trung gim phi, iri phiu v chng khon thung tach ring ra. Gi tri phiu
tlng trong khi gi. chng khon gim.
442 John J. Murphy
bt cht ca ch s hp ng tng lai s&p 500 b tc ng bi s bin

di ca hp ng tucmg lai Tri phiu Chnh ph. Trong di hn, s thay
i xu hung ca hp ng Tri phiu Chnh ph thung cnh bo v
s chuyn hung tung t trong chi s tin mt s&p 500. Theo , hp
ng tucmg lai Tri phiu Chnh ph c th c nhn nhn nh mt ch
bo dn ng cho th trung chng khon. Tri phiu tng lai theo
cng b tc ng bi xu hung ca th trng hng ha.
M i LIN H GIA TRI P H l u V HNG HA

Gi Tri phiu Chinh ph b tc ng bi t l lm pht. Gi hng ha
duc coi l chi bo ch o cho xu hng lm pht. Kt qu l gi hng
ha thng c xu hng ngc chiu vi gi tri phiu. Nu nghin cu
din bin th trng t nm 1970 n nay, bn s thy rng s chuyn
hng dt ngt trn cc th trung hng ha (bo hiu lm pht gi cao
hn) thung song hnh vi s suy gim tung ng v gi Tri phiu
Hnh 17.3 Gi hng ha v g i tri phiu thng c xu h n g ngc chiu

nhau nh c th hin trn th. y tri phiu trong ma xun 997 v
997 trng vi inh chinh trong gi hng ha (xem cc vung khoanh vng).
Chinh ph. Mt khc ca mi quan h ny dc th hin ch rng thu

nhp t Tri phiu Chnh ph thng song hnh vi s st gim gi
hng ha. (Xem hnh 17.3). i li, gi hng ha li b tc ng bi
chiu hng ca ng -la M.
M i LIN H GIA HNG HA V NG -LA M
ng -la M tng gi thng khin cho a s hng ha rt gi. Ni

cch khc, ng -la M tng gi thng c nhn nhn l ng tin
phi lm pht. (Xem hnh 17.4). Mt trong nhng hng ha chu nh
hng bi ng -la M l th trung vng. Nu tm hiu mi quan h
gia chng t xa n nay, bn s nhn thy gi vng v gi -la M
thng c xu hng ngc chiu nhau. (Xem hnh 17.5). Th trng
vng vn hnh nh mt chi bo dn ng cho nhng th trng hng
ha khc. V th, nu phn tich th trung vng, bn cn bit uc din
Hnh 17.4 ng -la M tng gi thng khin cho cc th trng hng ha

rt gi. Nm 980, y ca ng -la M trng vi inh chnh trong th
triing hng ha. y ca ong -la M nm 1995 gy ra s suy yu r rt
v gi hng ha l nm sau.
444 John J. Murphy
Hnh 17.5 Gi ng -la M v gi vng thitng c xu hirng ngc chiu

nhau nh trn hnh. Tun t. gia vng li ng vai tr nhu l chi bo ch do
cho nhng hng ha khc.
bin ca ng -la Mv. Cn nu nghin cu xu hung gi hng ha

ni chung (bng vic s dng mt trong nhng chi s gi hng ha ph
bin hn), bn cn bit r din bin ca th trng vng, vn l c
bn th trung u c s kt ni vi nhau - ng -la M tc ng n
hng ha, hng ha tc dng n tri phiu, tri phiu li tc ng n
chng khon. c th nm uc din bin ca mt loi ti sn, ta cn
phi nm uc din bin ca ba th trung kia. Tht may mn l iu
ny uc thc hin kh d dng dn gin bng vic quan st th gi
ca tng toi.
CC NHM CHNG KHON V NHM NGNH

Vic hiu duc mi quan h gia cc th trung ny i hi phi bit
uc s tung tc gia cc lnh vc khc nhau ca th trng chmg
khon v nhm ngnh. Th trung chng khon uc chia thnh cc
nhm th trung v cc nhm ny li c phn nh thnh nhng nhm
Phn tch k thut th tring ti chnh 445
ngnh. Nhng loi th trng ny chu nh hung bi nhng din bin

lin th trung. V d, nu chng khon tng v hng ha gim, nhm
chng khon nhy li sut - nh cc ngnh dch v cng, chng khon
ti chnh, nguyn liu tiu dng - thng th hin tt so vi nhng phn
cn li ca th trng chng khon khc. Trong khi d, nhm chng
khon nhy cm vi lm pht - nh vng, nng lung v chng khon
theo chu k - thng th hin km hn. Khi th trng hng ha mnh
ln do tri phiu th tnh hinh din ra theo chiu ngc ii. Khi Bng
vic gim st mi quan h gia gi Tri phin C hinh ph v gi hng
ha, bn c th xc nh c lnh vc v nhm ngnh no tt hun.
Do mi Kn h cht ch gia cc nhm ngnh ca th trng chng

khon v cc th trung lucmg lai c lin quan ca chng, cc th trng
ny c th uc s dng trong s kt hp vi nhau. V d, nhm c
phiu cc cng ty dch v cng (din, nc, ga...) uc kt noi cht
ch vi gi Tri phiu Chnh ph. (Xem hnh 17.6). c phiu cng ty
Hnh 17.6 Moi Hin h gia gi Tri phiu v nhm c phiu cc cng ty dch
v cng l moi quan h cht ch. Ngoi ra, nhm cphiu cc cng ty dch v
cng thng chuyn hung mt cht truc tri phiu.
446 John J. Murphy
khai thc vng lai c moi quan he cht che vi gia vng. Hon nira,
nhm chung khon co lien quan khc c xu hung dn dt thi trung
tuong lai tuong ng ca chng. Ket qua l nhm cd phieu cc cng ty
dich vu cng co the duoc xem nhir l chi bao dan duong cho Tri phieu
Chinh ph. Co phieu cng ty khai thc vng thi dan dung cho gi
vng. Mt vi du ve moi tuong quan lien thi truong khc l nh hung
ca gi du doi vi co phieu nng luong v hng khng. Gi du tng
kco gi co phieu nng luong len nhung tc dng xu den gi hng
khng. Gi du gim thi c ket qu nguoc lai.
DNG D-LA M ? V NHM C P H l VN HA LN
Mt moi quan he lien thi tmng khc lien quan den cch thc tc dng
ca dng d-la My doi voi nhm c phieu von ha ln v nh. Cc c
phieu cng ty da quoc gia voi so von ha ln c the bi nh hung tieu
circ tu dong d-la manh - dieu khien cho hng ha ca ho tr nen dt
d hcrn thi trung nuc ngoi. Nguqc lai, c phieu cng ty ni dia c
von ha cng nh thi cng it chju nh hung ca su bien dng dong d-
la My v the hien tot hon nhng loai c phieu von ha ln trong mi
trung dong d-la tng gi. Ket qu, dong d-la manh hon c the se tao
dieu kien thun Icri cho nhimg c phieu nh (nhu nhng loai c phieu
trong chi so Russell 2000,chi so cc loai c phieu c von ha thi trung
nh), trong khi dong d-la yeu hon lai co loi cho nhng cng ty da
quoc gia von ha ln (chng han nhng loai co phieu trong chi so Dow
Industrial Average).
PHN T IC H LIEN TH I TRU N G V QUY H TUNG
R rng l viec nm bat duoc nhng moi quan he lien thi trung ny c
the gip ban tien hnh cng viec trong mng du tu quy ho tuong. Vi
du, chieu hung ca dong d-la My c the nh hung den cam ket du
tu ca ban doi vi quy von ha nh trong su doi snh vi quy von ha
Ion. Dieu ny cng c the gip xc dinh so tien ban muon d vo cc
quy vng hoc quy ti nguyen khc. Su xut hien ca qu nhieu quy h
h tung chuyn ngnh khin nh u t kh quyt nh cn tp trung

vo mng no. Nhim v ny c th uc n gin ha i rt nhiu
bng cch so snh kt qu tuung i ca cc th trung tng lai v cc
nhm chng khon v lnh vc khc nhau. Quy trnh ny c thc
hin d dng nh phung php th c tn gi l phn lich hiu qu
cphiu trong mi lng quan vi cc cphiu khc (relative slrength
analys).
PHN T C H H IU QU c PHIU TRONG s i SNH VI

CC C PH IU KHC (RELATIVE STR EN G H T ANALYSIS)
y l mt cng c v th n gin nhung rt hiu qu. Bn chi cn

chia mt thc th th trng ny cho mt thc th th trung khc - ni
cch khc, bn phi th hin ng t sut ca hai th trumg. Khi
Hnh 17.7 T sut ca chi s CRB/Tri phiu cho chng la thy loi ti sn
no c gi tr cao hn. Nm 1994 l nm thun li cho th trung h()ng ha.
trong khi nm 1995 l nm ca tri phiu. T sut ny ri mnh xung vo gia
nm 1997 do cuc khng hong chu v ni lo gim pht.
448 John J. Murphy
ng t sut tng, gi t $0 ln hn mu $. Kh ung t sut gim,

th trng mu $0 1I1 hon. Hy xein qua mt s v d v ch bo on
gin ny. Hy chia ch s ch trng hng ha (chng hn ch s gi
tng lai C R B ) cho gi tng lai Tri phiu Chnh ph (hnh 7 .7 ). Khi
dng t sut tng, gi hne ha mnh hn) tri phu. Trong kch bn
, c l nh giao dch tng lai s mua hng ha v bn tri phiu.
Cng lc , nh giao dch chng khon c th s mua oi chng
khon nhy cm vi lm pht v bn chng khon nhy cm vi li
sut. Khi ng sut gim th mi vic din ra theo chiu ngc li,
ngha l nh giao dch s bn hng ha v mua tri phiu. Cng c ,
nh u t chng khon s bn vng, u v c phiu chu k ng thi
mua c phiu ca cc cng ty dch v cng, cng ty ti chnh v nguyn
liu tiu dng. (Xem hnh 17.8).
Hnh 17.8 Trong thng 10 nm 1997, cuc khng hong chu khin cc
qu ri tin khi c phiu chu k v vn vo nguyn liu tiu dng, trng
vi thi im ung h s CRB/Tri phiu gim trn hnh 17.7.
HIU QU C PH I U CHUYN NGNH
Hin nay c nhiu sn giao dch cho php giao dch quyn chn ch s
ca cc khu vc th trng chuyn ngnh khc nhau. Sn quyn chn
Chicago Board c nhiu s la chn nht v bao gm cc nhm khc
nhau nh xe hi, phn mm my tnh, mi trung, tr chi, bt ng
sn, chm sc sc khe, bn l, vn chuyn. Sn chng khon
American v Philadelphia cho bn cc hp ng quyn chn chi s
nh bin trong lnh vc ngn hng, vng, u, duc phm, cht bn
dn, cng ngh v cc dch v cng. Tt c nhng quyn chn chi s
ny c th dc v trn th v uc phn tch nh tt c cc th
tnrng khc. Cch tt nht d c th s dng phn tch cng tuoiig
i ch nhng th trng ny l chia gi chng cho chun di snh
ngnh nh s&p 500. Sau , bn c th nhn bit uc th tning no
mnh hn th trung no (vi ng RS tng) hoc yu hn (ng RS
Hnh 17.9 S so snh t sut hiu qu c phiu ca Chi s PSE Hgh Tech vi
chi s s&p 500. Phn tich (tng xu hng n gin gip pht hin s rt gi
ca chng khon cng ngh trong thng 10 nm 1997 v s gia tng vo cui
nm.
450 John J. Murphy
gim). Vic s dng mt s cng c v th dn gin nh dung xu

hung v ng trung bnh di ng trn chnh ung hiu qu c phiu
s gip bn pht hin c nhng s thay i xu hng quan trng.
(Xem hnh 17.9). Li khuyn chung cho vn ny l lun chuyn qu
vo nhng khu vc chuyn ngnh c ng RS va chuyn hirng i
ln, v ri khi nhng nhm c ng RS va quay u i xung.
Nhng bin ng ny bt ngun t chnh s thay i ca hp ng
quyn chn ch s hoc thng qua nhng qu h tcmg ca khc khu
vc chuyn ngnh v nhm ngnh khc nhau.
HIU QU C PHIU V CC NHM c PHlU RING L

Cc nh du t c hai cch i tip t im ny. H c th on gin
lun chuyn tin ra khi mt nhm th trung ri chuyn vo mt nhm
khc v duy tr . Hoc, nu mun, h c th tip tc chn nhng
c phiu ring l trong nhm. Phn tch hiu qu c phiu cng ng
Inh 17.10 Phn tch t sut ca Dell Computer vi ch s PSE High Tech vo
cui nm 1997 chi ra rng Dell l mt trong nhng c phiu c biu hin tt
trong tnh vc cng ngh.
vai tr trong qu trnh ny. Mt khi ch s mong di d dc chn, buc

tip theo l chia tng loi c phiu ring l trong phm vi ch s cho
chnh chi $ . ng cch ny, bn c th pht hin c loi c phiu
ring l no ang c hiu qu ln nht. (Xem hnh ] 7.10). Bn c th
mua loi c phiu c ung t sut mnh nht, hoc c th mua loi r
hn c ung t sut va mi tng. Tuy nhin, phuong n ny trnh uc
nhng loi c phiu c ung t sut hiu qu c phiu dang gim.
CCH T I P C n th trng 'TTRN xung di
Nhng g m chng ta m t y chnh l phuong php tip cn th

tning t trn xung di (top-down market approach). Chng ta s bt
u bng cch nghin cu mc trung bnh ca th trung chnh xc
nh xu hung chung ca th trng. Sau , ta chn nhng nhm
chuyn ngnh hoc nhm ngnh c hiu qu ln nht. Sau , ta li
chn nhng loi c phi ring l c hiu qu nht thuc nhm ny.
Bng cch kt hp cc nguyn tc phn tch lin th trng vo qu
trnh ra quyt nh, ta c th xc nh dc th trng hin ti ang
nghing v tri phiu, hng ha, hay chng khon - iu c th ng
vai tt quan trng trong quyt nh phn b ti sn. Cc nguyn tc ny
cng c th c p dng cho vic u t mang tm quc t bng cch
so snh hiu qu ca cc th trng chng khon khc nhau trn ton
cu. Cui cng, tt c cc cng c k thut m ta ni n u c th
c s dng trong th cc qu h tng vi t cch l cng c kim
tra ln cui cng vic phn tch ca bn. Tt c nhng cng vic trn
uc hon thnh bng nhng th gi v mt chic my tnh. Hy th
p dng phn tch c bn vo nhiu th trung cng lc.
S GIM PHT
Cc nguyn tc lin th trung uc m t y u da trn nhng xu
hng th trung k t nm 1970. Thp nin 70 ca th k trc chng
kin s ltn pht khin gi hng ha tng ln. Thp nin 80 v 90 li l
giai on rt gi ca hng ha (gim pht) v s tng gi ca th trung
452 John J. Murphy
tri phiu v chng khon. Trong na sau ca nm 1997, cuc khng

hong tin t v chng khon chu tn ph nhiu th trng nh
dng, vng v du. Ln du tin trong thp nin ny, mt s nh quan
st th trng bc l ni lo lng v s gim pht vn c li (gi tng vi
mc chm hn) c nguy c tr thnh s gim pht c hi (gi gim).
Hon th na, ln u tin gi thnh sn xut gim trong hon mt thp
k. Kt qu ! th trng tri phiu v chng khon bt u i theo hai
hung khc bit. Ln u tin trong 4 nm, nh u t quay lung li vi
chng khon v quan tm hn n tri phiu v nhm c phiu nhy
cm vi li sut nh c phiu ca cc cng ty dch v cng. L do ca
s iu chinh phn b ti sn ny c th hin ch rng s gim pht
lm thay i din bin lin th trng. Mi quan h nguc chiu ca
gi tri phiu v hng ha vn c duy tr. Hng ha gim trong khi
tri phiu tng. Khc chng l ch th trung chng khon c th
phn ng mt cch tiu cc trong hon cnh ny. Chng ti chi ra iu
ny v th trng ti chnh gp phi vn gim pht trong thi gian
di. Khi v chi khi gim pht din ra thi mi quan h Hn th trung s
lun hin din nhng theo mt cch khc. Gim pht khng c li cho
hng ha, nhung li tt cho tri phiu v chng khon. Gim pht tt
cho tri phiu v khng c li cho hng ha, nhung cng khng tt cho
chng khon.
Xu hung gim pht bt u ti chu gia nm 1997 v sau lan

n Nga v chu M Latin vo gia nm 1998 v bi u nh hung
n nhng th trng chng khon khc trn th gii. S suy gim gi
hng ha tn ph nghim trng nhiu lin kinh t ca cc quc gia
xut khu hng ha nh c, Canada, Mexico v Nga. S gim pht gy
rt gi hng ha v chng khon c tc ng tt cho gi Tri phiu
Chnh ph v gip n c c c hch k lc. Nhng s kin din ra
trong nm 1998 cng l mt v d in hnh v mi lin kt lin th
trng trn th gii v cho thy cch thc m tri phiu v chng khon
tch khi nhau nh th no trong mt th gii gim pht.
MI TNG QUAN LIN T H TRNG
Hai th trng thung xuyn c cng xu hung nh tri phiu v chng

khon th hin mi tng quan dung. Nhng th trng xu hng
nguc chiu nh tri phiu v hng ha thng c mi tng quan m.
Phn mm d th cho php bn o lung mc tng quan gia hai
th trng khc nhau. Chi s dng cao cho thy s tng quan dng
mnh. Chi s m cao cho thy s tng quan m mnh. Chi s tng
quan gn bng 0 cho thy s tucmg quan km hoc khng c. Bng
cch o tng quan, nh giao dch c th xc nh c ngha ca
mt mi quan h lin th trng no . c n quan tm nhiu hn n
nhng th trung c mi tng quan cao, v khng nn ch tm nhiu
n nhng th trng c mi tng quan gn bng 0. (Xem hnh 17.11)
Trong cun Cybernetic Trading Strategies (Chin lc giao dch t

dng ha) ca minh, Murray Ruggiero (con) trinh by mt nghin
Hnb 17.11 ng k dc dy th hin tinh tng quan dng gia Triphiu

Chinh ph v ch s S&P500. Trong sut na sau nm 1997, cuc khng hong
chu to ra nhiu s tch bit gia cc th trng. Nh u t mua tri
phiu v bn chng khon.
454 John J. Murphy
cu mang tnh sng to v mi tng quan lin th trung. ng cng

chi ra cch s dng b lc lin th trng trong h thng giao dch. V
d, ng chng minh c h thng giao nhau gia cc dng trung
bnh di ng trn th trng tri phiu c th uc s dng nh l b
lc cho giao dch chi s chng khon. Ruggiero khm ph ra cch
ng dng nhng phng php tn tin v tri thng minh nhn to nh
l thuyt hn m ang, logic m (fuzzy logic) v cc mng li thn kinh
d pht trin h thng giao dch k thut. ng cng pht minh ra cch
img dng mng li thn kinh vo lnh vc phn tch lin th trng.
PHN MM MNG LI THAN KINH LIN TH TRNG

Vn chnh trong nghin cu v mi quan h lin th trng chnh l
vic c rt nhiu mi quan h tc ng ln nhau trong cng mt thi
gian. cng l mi trung hnh thnh mng lui thn kinh. Mng
li thn kinh to ra mt c s nh lumg gip xc nh v quan st
nhng mi quan h phc tp gia cc th trurng ti chnh. Louis
Mendelsohn, Ch tch ca Market Technologies Corporation (25941
Apple Blossom Lane, Wesley Chapel, FL 33544, email:
4514l@ProfitTakker.com; website URL:ww.ProfitTaker.com/4S141),
l ngui u tin pht trin phn mm phn tch lin th trng trong
lnh vc ti chnh ca thp nin 80. Mendelsohn l ngi tin phong
trong vic ng dng phn mm vi tnh v mng li thn kinh vo phn
tch lin th trung. Phn mm VantagePoint ca ng ln du tin uc
gii thiu vo nm 1991 c s dng cc nguyn tc lin thi trng
giao dch trn cc th trng li sut, ch s chng khon, th trng tin
t, v th trng nng lng tung lai. VantagePoint s dng cng ngh
mng li thn kinh pht hin nhng m hnh n v mi tng quan
gia cc th trung c lin quan.
TM LC
Trong chng ny, chng ta tm tt nhng im chnh ca cun sch
Phn tch k thut lin th trng, tho lun nhng hiu ng t ng
-la M sang hng ha ri n tri phiu v chng khon. Nghin cu
lin th trng cng tha nhn s tn ti ca cc mi lin kt ton cu.

Nhng din bin trn th trung chu , chu u v chu M Latin
cng nh hirng n th trng Hoa K v nguc li. Phn tch lin th
tning bao gm s lun chuyn khu vc chuyn ngnh trong th trng
chng khon. Phn tch hiu qu c phiu trong s i snh vi cc c
phiu khc gip nhn bit cc nhm ti sn, nhm th trung chuyn
ngnh v c phiu ring l no ang c biu hin tt hn mong i.
Trong cun sch Cng c chi bo hng u ca thp nin 90 (Leading
Indicator fo r the 1990s) ca minh, tin s Geoffrey Moore ch ra cch
thc m s tng tc gia hng ha, tri phiu v chng khon i theo
mt m hnh lin tc - m hnh theo di cc chu k kinh doanh. Tin s
Moore xc nhn s lun chuyn lin th trng trong ba loi ti sn v
tranh lun v ng dng ca chng trong vic d bo kinh t. Trong vic
thc hin iu ny, ng cao vai tr ca nghin cu lin th trung
v phn tch k thut ni chung trong d bo kinh t. Cui cng, phn
tch k thut c th c p dng cho qu h tung nh trong bt k
mt th trung no (vi s iu chinh nh). ng vy, tt c cc k
thut trong cun sch ny u c th uc p dng thch hp cho th
ca qu h tng. Hn th na, tinh dao ng thp ca th qu h
tuong l mt li th cng c ny tr nn hiu qu hon nhiu khi phn
tch th. Cun sch cui cng ca ti, Nh u t trc quan (The
Visual Investor), gii quyt trit ch phn tch v giao dch nhm
th trung chuyn ngnh ng thi chi ra cch thc dng th qu h
tung cng nh cch s dng n thc hin cc chin luc giao dch
a dng. (Xem hnh 17.12).
456 John J. M urphy
H inh 17.12 Phan tich do thi co the ducrc dp dung cho do thi quy ho txtcmg. D u
khng phai la m o lth u y e n g icm h im g 'ch ic a n th e o doi quy ho tiwmg, ban cng
co the thay rang thi trucmg chan A dang gp bien dng.
CHONG18
Cc ch bo th trng
chng khon
O LNG RNG TH TRNG
Trong chng truc, chng ta m t cch tip cn t trn xung di

rt ph bin trong phn tch th trng chng khon. Theo cch tip cn
ny, bn s bt u qu trnh phn tch vi vic tm hiu sc khe ca
th trng chung. Sau s di dn vo cc khu vc th trng chuyn
ngnh v nhm ngnh. Buc cui cng l nghin cu cc nhm c
phiu ring l. Mc tiu cn t uc l chn la nhng c phiu tt
nht trong nhng nhm tt nht trong mt mi trung ni th trung
chng khon hon ton lnh mnh xt v mt k thut. Vic nghin cu
cc nhm th trung v c phiu ring l c th uc thc hin vi
nhng cng c k thut uc s dng trong cun sch ny - bao gm
m hnh th, phn tch khi lng giao dch, ung xu hung, ng
trung binh ng, ch bo dao ng V . V . . . Cc chi bo ny cng c th
uc p dng cho nhng chi s trung bnh quan trng. Nhung y c
mt loi chi bo th trng khc dc s dng rng ri trong phn tch
th trung chng khon vi mc ch xc nh tnh trng sc khe ca
th trng chng khon chung thng qua cch o lung chiu rng th
trng. D liu c s dng l nhng mc gia tng v suy gim,
ngung cao mi v thp mi, khi lung giao dch tng v gim.
458 John J. Murphy
D LIU MU
Nu kim tra hng ngy mc Stock Market Data Bank (Ngn hng D
liu Th trung Chng khon) ca t The Wall Street Journal (mc c,
trang 2), bn s thy cc d liu ca phin giao dch hm trc nh uc
th hin di dy vi s liu c ly t mt phin giao dch thc:
Nht k sn NYSE Th hai
Hp ng uc giao dch 3.432
Tng 1.327
Gim 1.559
Khng i 546
Ngng cao mi 78
Ngng thp mi 43
Khi lung GD tng (000) 248.215
Khi lng GD gim (000) 279.557
Tng khi lng GD (000) 553.914
S c phiu ng ca tng so vi giam gi -135
Ch s Arms (TRIN) 0.96

(Chi s o lng chiu rng trong phn tch k thut ngn hn v
c tinh theo cng thc sau:
_ Advanching issue/decling issue
(voiine of advanching issue/
volume o f decling issue
TRIN c ngha l Chi s ca nh giao dch (TRaders' Index)
Nhng s liu trn c trch t d liu ca sn giao dch chng

khon New York. S suy gim uorng t cng xy ra trn sn NASDAQ
v Sn Chng khon M. Trong cuc tho lun ny, chng ta s tp
trung vo sn New York (NYSE). Dung nh trong ngy hm , chi
s Dow Jones ginh uc 12,20 im. Vy th trng tng khi o
lung bng chi s Dow. Tuy nhin, c nhiu chng khon gim gi
(1.559) hn tng (1.327) cho thy th trng quy m ln hom khng c
sc khe tt nh Dow. Ngoi ra, khi lung giao dch cng gim nhiu
hn tng. Hai loi d liu ny cho thy th trung ni chung vn yu
th d chi s Dow ng ca tng trong ngy hm . Nhng d liu
khc cho thy mt bc tranh tng hp. s c phiu t ngung cao mi
trong 52 tun (78) ln hon s t ngung thp mi (43) cho thy th
trung tch cc. Tuy nhin, s c phiu ng ca tng so vi gim gi
l -135. Ngha l s chng khon ng ca gim nhiu hn tng l 135
- mt yu t tiu cc ngn hn. Tuy nhin, s c phiu ng ca tng
trong s di snh vi c phiu ng ca gim gi vi mc m uc b
p bi ch s Arm 0,96 - mc dng nh. Chng ta s gii thch l do
ti sao trong phn sau. Tt c cc chi s th trng ni b u c mt
mc ch - cho chng ta mt ch s chnh xc hn v sc khe th
trung chung m khng phi lc no cng c phn nh trong s bin
ng ca cHTso Dw.
SO SNH CC CH S TRUNG BNH CA TH TRNG

Mt phng php nghin cu rng th trng l so snh biu hin
ca chi s trung bnh chng khon. Bng cch s dng s liu giao dch
ca cng ngy lm v d, nhng s liu di y cho thy biu hin
tng i ca cc ch s trung bnh chng khon quan trng:
Dow Industrials +12,20 (+0,16%)
S&P500 -0,64(-0,07%)
Nasdaq Composite -14,47(-0,92%)
Russell 2000 -3.80(-0,89%)
u tin, ta thy rng chi s Dow Industrials l ch s duy nht tng

trong ngy. Trong tt c cc chuong trnh TV ca ngy hm , nh
du t c thng bo rng th trng (uc i din bi chi s Dow)
ang tng. Tuy nhin, tt c nhng chi s do lung khc li gim. Lu
ch s c quy m ln hn (vi nhiu c phiu c a vo tinh ton
460 John J. Murphy
hn) li t hn. Hy so snh s thay it l . Chi s Dow 30 tng

0.16%. Chi s S&P500 gim 0.07%. Ch s Nasdaq Composite gm
hn 5000 chng khon c mt ngy ti t vi mc gim 0.92%. Gn
nh bng Nasdaq l Russell 2000 (-0.89) l chi s do lng 2000 c
phiu c vn ha th trung nh. Thng dip t php so snh trn l
mc d ch s Dow tng trong ngy hm , nhung th trung chung li
nh mt im khi o lng nhng chi s quy m ln hn. Chng ta s
nhc li phng php so snh ny sau, cn gi y, hy chi ra nhng
cch phn tch ch s rng khc nhau.
NG TNG-GIM
y l ng uc bit n vi tn gi chi bo rng. Vic dng
ung tng gim cc k on gin. Giao dch ca mi ngy trn sn
chng khon New York cho thy mt s lung c phiu tng gi no
d, mt s gim, y mt s khc th khng tng khng gim. Nhng
con s ny dc bo co hng ngy trn t Wall Street Journal v t
Hnh 18.1 ng tng gim trn sn NYSE so vi ch s Dow Industrials.

Trongmt th trung mnh, c hai ng c cng xu hung tng nh hnh trn.
Investors Business Daily v uc s dng dng ng tng gim

(Aadvance-Decline - dng AD). Cch tnh ng AD ph bin nht l
ly chnh lch gia con s tng v s gim. Nu tng nhiu hn gim,
ung AD ngy dcmg. Nu gim nhiu hon tng, ng AD s m.
S liu hng ngy l dng hay m c cng vo ung AD tch ly.
ung AD th hin xu hng ca chnh n. Vic cn lm l m bo
rng dng AD v cc ch s trung bnh dang c cng xu hng (Xem
hnh 18.1).
S PHN K AD
Vy ung AD o lung ci g? umg ny cho chng ta bit uc liu
mt mi trung rng ln gm 3500 c phiu trn sn NYSE c ang
tng cng vi nhng ch s trung bnh ph bin nht gm 30 c phiu
Dow Industrials 30, 500 c phiu ch s S&PS00 hay khng. Mt cch
gii thch hi-hrrc khc cua t Wall Street: ng tng gim cho ta bit
c phi cc "binh on" bt kp "tung qun" ca n hay khng. V d,
khi ng AD cn tng cng vi ch $ Dow Industrials thi chiu rng
hay sc khe ca th trng vn tt. Ri ro xut hin khi ng AD bt
u phn k so vi chi s Dow. Ni cch khc, khi bn thy mt tinh
trng m ch s Dow Industrials chm ngung cao mi nhng th
trung rng hn (duc o lung bi ung AD) khng ging vy th
nh phn tch bt u lo lng v chi s rng th trung yu km hoc
s phn k ca ung AD. T xua n nay, ung AD lun chm inh
trc chi s trung bnh, iu uc gii thch v sao chng uc quan st
mt cch ti m.
NG AD TUN V NG AD NGY
ng AD hng ngy uc s dng ch yu cho s so snh ngn hoc
trung hn so vi ch s trung bnh. N khng my hu ch khi so snh
qung thi gian vi nm. ng tng gim hng tun th o lng s
c phiu tng so vi c phiu gim trong mt tun. Nhng d liu ny
uc cng b trn t Barron's mi tun. ng tng gim hng tun
hu ch trong phm vi vi nm. Trong khi s phn k m trong ung
462 John J. Murphy
AD hng ngy cnh bo vn d ca th trung ngn hn v trung hn,

d xc nhn uc mt vn d cc k nghim trng, ta phi thy c
s phn k tuong t trong ng AD hng tun.
BIN TH NG AD
V con s chng khon giao dch trn sn NYSE tng ln hng nm nn
mt s nh phn tch th trung (in rng phng php ly s chng
khon tng tr cho s gim c mt ngha quan trng hn i vi cc
d liu mi. di ph vi vn d ny, nhiu nh phn tch k thut
thch s dng h s tng/gim vi vic ly s tng chia cho s gim.
Mt s ngui cho rng nn s dng s lung khng i trong cch tnh.
Cho d ng AD c tnh bng cch no i chng na thi cng dng
ca n lun l nh gi chiu hng th trung quy m hon v bo m
rng n di chuyn theo cng hung ca nhng ch so trung bnh ph
bin nhung uc thit k hp. ung tng gim cng uc dng cho
Sn Chng khon Hoa K v th trng Nasdaq. Nh phn tch k thut
thch dng chi bo mua qu mc/bn qu mc trn dng AD h tr
vic o lng im cc th trng ngn n trung hn ca chnh d liu
rng . Mt trong nhng v d ph bin hn l ch bo dao ng
McClellan.
CH BO DAO NG McCLELLAN
c pht trin bi Sherman McClellan, ch bo ny duc v bng
cch ly chnh lch gia hai ng trung bnh di ng hm m ca d
liu tng gim trn sn NYSE. Chi bo dao ng McClellan l chnh
lch gia ng trung bnh di dng hm m 19 ngy (10% xu hung)
v 39 ngy (5% xu hung) ca s liu tng gim rng hng ngy. Chi
bo dao ng bin i tht thng quanh ng s 0 vi im cc trn
v cc di t +100 n -100. Chi s ca ch bo dao ng McClellan
cao hon +100 tc l th tnrng chng khon mua qu mc. Chi s dui
-100 l th trng bn qu mc. utng ny nm trn v dui ng s
0 tng ng l tn hiu mua v bn t ngn n trung hn. (Xem hinh
18.2)
Hnh 18.2 Chi bo dao dng McClelan l mt th tn sut. Vic ct ln

trn ng s 0 l tin hiu dng. Chi s trn +100 l mua qu mc, trong khi
di -100 l bn qu mc. Luu im cc bn qu mc trong thng 10 nm
1997.
CH S TNG CNG McCLELLAN

Ch s tng cng l mt phin bn chi bo dao ng McClellan di hn.
Ch s tng cng McClellan l tng tch ly ch s dung hoc m mi
phin giao dch trong chi bo dao dng McClellan. Trong khi ch bo
dao ng McClellan c s dng cho giao dch ngn n trung hn th
ch s tng cng duc s dng cho vic theo di chi s rng th
trng di hn v pht hin im chuyn i th trng quan trng.
(Xem hnh 18.3)
NGNG CAO M I s o VI NGNG THAP m i
Ngoi nhng con s ca c phiu tng v gim, cc t bo ti chnh

cn cng b s c phiu dt ngung cao mi hoc thp tni ca 52
tun. Mt ln na, nhng con s ny li uc s dng trn th hng
464 John J. Murphy
Hnh 18.3 Ch s tng cng McClellan l phin bn chi bo dao ng

McClellan di hn. Chi bo lng cng c s dung cho phn lch th trng
chinh. S giao nhau xung dui ng so 0 l tn hiu m. Tin hiu trong thng
2 nm 1998 l dng.
ngy v hng tun, c hai cch trnh by nhng s liu ny. Cch th
nht l v hai ung ring bit. Vi gi tr hng ngy di khi thay di
tht thung, nn ung trung bnh di ng (thng l 10 ngy) c
dng d th hin hai dng trn mt cch nh nhng, t dao ng hn.
(Xem hnh 18.4). Trong mt th trung mnh, s c phiu t ngung
cao mi ln hn s dt ngng thp. Khi so ngung cao bt u gim
hoc s ngung thp bt u tng, d l lc ta cn ch . Mt tn hiu
th trung m uc nhn bit khi ung trung bnh di dng cc ngung
thp mi giao ln trn ng trung bnh ca ngng cao mi. N cng
cho thy rng bt k lc no s lung ngng cao t cc im th th
trung c xu humg chm inh. Tng t, s lng ngng thp t cc
im bo hiu th trung chm y. Mt cch khc l s dng s
ngng cao so vi ngung thp v chnh lch gia hai ng.
Hnh 18.4 ircmg trung bnh 10 ngy ca ngng cao so vi ng trung bnh
10 ngy ca ngng thp. Th trung mnh l th trng c nhiu chng khon
t ngng cao mi hn ngng thp mi. Tthng 10 nm 1997, hai ng ny
gn nh l ct nhau trc khi xc nhn li th t tng ca mnh.
CH S NGNG CAO MI - NGNG THAP mi
u im ca ch s ngng cao-thp mi l n c th uc so snh trc

tip vi mt trong nhng chi s trung bnh quan trng nht. Theo d,
ung cao thp c th uc s dng nh ung tng gim. (Xem hnh
18.5). Xu hung ca ng cao thp c th c th hin trn th
v c s dng pht hin s phn k th trng. V d, ngng cao
mi ca ch s Dow khng khp vi ngung cao mi ca ng cao
thp l tn hiu th trung ln hon suy yu. Vic phn tch ung xu
hng v ung trung binh di ng c th c p dng cho bn thn
ung ny. Nhung gi tr chnh ca n l s xc nhn hoc s phn k
so vi xu hng chng khon chnh v bo hiu s thay i xu hung
sm ca th trong chung. Trong cun Giao dch mu sinh"
(Trading for a L iv in g Wiley), Tin s Alexanderr Elder m t ch s
466 John J. Murphy
Hnh 18.5 Ch s cao thp mi so vi chi s Nasdaq Composite. ng ny

v li chnh lch gia so chng khon t ngng cao mi v so t ngng
thp mi. ng ny lng l dng. Hy lu s suy gim r rt trong thng
10 nm 1997.
ngung cao thp mi nh l "chi bo ch o tt nht ca th trng

chng khon".
K H I LNG G IA O D CH TNG s o V I G I M
y l d liu th ba v cng l d liu cui cng c th c s dng

d o lng chi s rng th trung. Sn chng khon New York cng
cung cp con $0 khi lng giao dch tng v gim. D liu ny cng
c cng b trn cc bo ti chnh vo ngy hm sau. Sau , ta c
th so snh khi lng giao dch tng v gim xc nh ci no
chim uu th. (Xem hnh 1S.6). Khi lng giao dch tng v gim c
th c v nh hai dng ring bit (nh cch lm vi ngung cao v
ngng thp) hoc dng duy nht mt ung chnh lch. C hai cch
Hnb 18.6 ng irung bnh d ng 0 ngy ca khi lng giao dch tng
so vi gim (ng sm). Th trng mnh l th trng c khi lng giao
dch lng ln hn khi lng gim.
u C cch din gii nh nhau. Khi khi lung giao dch tng chim
uu th, th trung ang mnh. Khi khi lung giao dch gim ln hn
chng t th trung ang yu. C th kt hp s lng c phiu tng v
gim gi vi khi lng tng v gim vi nhau. l cch mRichard
Arms lm d to ra chi s Arms.
C H S A R M S
Chi s Arms c dt theo tn ca Richard Arms, l t sut ca mt t
sut. T s l t sut ca s c phiu tng chia cho s c phiu gim.
Mu s l khi lnng giao dch tng trn khi lung giao dch gim.
Mc ch ca chi s Arms l o lung xem liu khi lung c phiu
tng hoc gim c gia tng hay khng. Mt chi s thp hon 1.0 c ngha
khi lng chng khon tng ln hn v l tn hiu tch cc. mt chi s
thp hn 1.0 phn nh khi lung chng khon gim ln hon v l tn
468 John J. Murphy
Hinh 18.7 Chi so Arms (cdn duoc goi l TRIN) cd xu hucmg nguoc vof thi
trucmg. ngoai tru nhng diem cuc tren bo hieu thi tnxong cham day. Bir&ng
trung birth di dong chi bao Arms 10 ngy l cch pho bien de xem xet chi bo
Jao nghich nay.
hieu tieu cuc. Trong do thj ngy, chi so Arms qua cao l tich cuc, qua
thp l tieu cuc. Chinh vi ly do do m chi so Arms l chi bo do nghich
cho biet cc xu huong dang pht trien nguoc chieu nhau. N6 co the
duoc su dung cho giao dich trong ngy bng cch theo di hung pht
trien ca n v nhn biet nhng tin hieu dat diem cuc th{ trudng ngn
han. (Xem hinh 18.7).
CH ! S TRIN SO VI C H i S T IC K
Chi so Arms (TRIN) c the duoc s dung trong su ket hop vi chi bo
TICK (chi bo thi trudng dua tren so co phieu vi giao dich cu6i cng
l tng hoc gim. Dy duoc coi nhu l chi bo the hien y kien hay tm
ly thi trucmg nhm dua ra du bo ve xu hung thi trudng - ND) cho viec
giao dch trong ngy. TICK o lung chnh lch gia s lumg c
phiu ang uc giao dch theo xu hng gi sau cao hon gi truc
(upstick) so vi s lng uc giao dch theo xu hng ngc li
(downtick). TICK l phin bn tng-pht ca ung tng gim hng
ngy v c s dng cho cng mt mc ch. Khi kt hp c hai vo
giao dch trong ngy, mt ch bo TICK tng v mt chi s Anns tng
(TRIN) l tin hiu tiu cc. Tuy nhin, chi bo Arms cng c th uc
s dng cho phn tch di hn.
LM PHNG ch B o arm s
Trong khi ch bo Arms uc nim yt trong ngy giao dch v c gi

tr d on ngn hn thi a s cc nh giao dch li s dng ng trung
bnh di ng 10 ngy trong gi tr ca n. Theo Arms thi ung trung
bnh di ng 10 ngy ca ch bo Arms nu cao hn 1.20 tc l bn qu
mc, trong khi thp hn 0.70 l mua qu mc, mc d nhng s ny c
th thay i dtrn xiRung th tning chung. Arms khuyn ngh
dng cc con s Fibonacci, ng d ngh s dng chi bo Arms 21 ngy
vo phin bn 10 ngy, n g cng s dng s giao nhau gia ung
trung bnh di ng 21 ngy v 55 ngy ca ch bo Arms to ra
nhng giao dch trung hn hiu qu. bit r hon v vn ny, bn
c th c cun Chi bo Arms (TRIN) ca Richard w.Arms, Jr.
PHIN BN ARMS M
tnh chi s Arms 10 ngy, gi ng ca mi ngy uc xc nh
bng vic s dng c bn yu t u vo v gi tr cui cng uc
lm mt vi ng trung bnh di ng 10 ngy. Trong phin bn "M"
ca chi s Arms, mi yu t trong bn yu t c tinh binh qun
trong giai on 10 ngy. Chi s Arms m sau d uc tnh t bn s
liu bnh qun ny. Nhiu nh phn tch thch s dng chi s Arms m
hn SO vi bin bn gc. Chiu di dng trung bnh di ng khc nhau
nhu ung 21 ngy v 55 ngy cng c th uc p dng cho phin bn
ch s Arms m. (Xem hnh 18.8)
470 John J. Murphy
Hnh 18.8 Chi so rms m 0 ngy uc th hin mt cch mthcm, t dao

ng hn nhung vn c xu hng ngc vi th trng. S giao nhau vi ng
trung bnh di dng 10 ngy (dng sm hn) thng bo im chuyn hung.
BIU K H I LNG TNG NG
Mc d c coi l ngui sng to nn chi s mang tn mnh, song

Arms cng l ngi tin phong ong vic kt hp nhng cch phn tch
gi v khi lng giao dch khc. Trong qu trnh , ng to ra mt
dng th hon ton mi gi l khi lung tircmg uong (equivolume
chart). Trong th thanh truyn thng, bin giao dch ca ngy
uc th hin trn thanh gi vi cc thanh khi lung giao dch y
th. V kt hp phn tch gi v khi lung giao dch nn cc nh
phn tch k thut phi quan st c hai phn th cng lc. Trong
th khi lung tng uong, mi thanh gi uc th hin bng mt hnh
ch nht. Chiu rng hnh ch nht c xc nh bi khi lung giao
dch trong ngy. Ngy c khi lung ln th c hnh ch nht cng rng.
Ngy c khi lng thp uc th hin bng mt hnh ch nht hp
hn. (Xem hnh 18.9)
Thng thng, s ph v gi tng lun song hnh vi s bt ph v

khi lung giao dch. Trn mt th khi lung tng ng, c ph
v gi tng s sc Ig hnh cng mt hnh ch nht c bit rng. D th
khi lung giao dch tng ng kt hp phn tch gi v kh lng
vi nhau vo mt d th v gip vic so snh gi cng nh khi lung
tr nn d dng hon nhiu. Vi d, trong mt xu hng tng, phin tng
s c hnh ch nht rng hon trong khi phin gim l nhng hnh ch
nht hp hon. th khi lung tng uong c th uc p dng cho
cc chi s trung binh ca th trng cng nh cc loi chng khon
ring l v c dng cho th hng ngy v hng tun. bit thm
thng tin, bn c th tham kho cun Chu k khi lng giao dch trong
th trng chng khon (Volume Cycles in the Stock Market) ca
Richard Arms (Dow Jones Irwin, 1983).
Hnh 18.9 th khi litng tng ng kt hp d liu gi v khi lng

giao dch. Chiu rng ca hnh ch nht (thanh theo ngy) dc xc nh bng
khi lng giao dch ngy . Hnh ch nht bt du m rng trong ln gim
gi gn nht ca Intel - mt tn hiu tiu cc.
472 John J. Murphy
T H H N H N N
Trong Chng 12, Greg Morris gii thch cch dur g th hnh nn.
Trong mt bi bo ng trn tp ch Phn tch K thut C hng khon
v H ng ha (Technical Analysis o f Stocks a n d C om m odities) c ta e
ng Ty hi ng: V th hnh nn, Morris xut cch kt
hp th hnh nn vi phcmg php th khi lung tung ng
ca Arms. Phin bn ca Morris m t d th hnh nn theo dng thc
khi lng tutmg ng, N i cch khc, chiu rng ca hnh nn c
xc nh bi khi lng giao dch. Khi lung cng ln th hnh nn
cng rng. Morris gi s kt hp ny l th Candlepower. Trch t
bi bo: .. th Candlepower cung cp cho ta nhng thng tin tung
t nu khng mun ni l tt hn so vi th khi Iung tng ng
hay hnh nn v hp dn nh hai loi d th kia. K thut Candlepower
ca Morris sn c trong phn mm th ca M egastock (pht hnh
Hnh 18.10 Mt th CandlePower (c gi l Candevolume) kt hp

th khi lung tng ng v th nn Nht. Be ngang ca cy nn (thanh
hng ngy) l khi lng giao dch.
bi Equis International, 39S0 S.700 East, Suite 100, Salt Lake City, UT
84107 [800] 882-3040, ww.equis.com). Tuy nhin, n uc i tn
thnh Candlevolume. (Xem hnh 18.10).
SO SNH CC CH S TRNG BNH TH TRNG

Trong phn u chng, chng ta ni rng mt cch thc khc o
lung chi s d rng th trng l so snh cc ch s trung bnh th
trng vi nhau. Chng ta ch yu ni n ch s Dow Industrials, s&p
500, chi s sn giao dch New York, chi s Nasdaq Composite, v chi
s Russell 2000. Mi mt chi s o lung cc phn khc th tmng
khc nhau. Ch s Dow v s&p 500 th hin xu hng ca mt s t
cc loi c phiu c lung vn ha ln. Chi s NYSE Composite bao
gm tt c cc c phiu giao dch trn sn New York v cho ta phm vi
quan st rng hn. Thng thung, nhng c ph v ca ch s Dow
Industrials c th c xc nhn bi nhng c ph v tiiong t ca chi
s S&PSOO v chi s NYSE Composite d xc minh chc chn ca
dt ph v.
Hu nh nhng phn k quan trng u c lin quan n ch s

Nasdaq v Russell 2000. Chi s Nasdaq Composite c s lung c
phiu ln nht (5000). Tuy nhin, vi l chi s nh gi theo mc von
ha nn n thng b chi phi bi 100 c phiu cng ngh ln nht nh
Intel hay Microsoft. Chnh v th m Nasdaq thng l cng c nh
gi chiu hng ca nhm c phiu chuyn ngnh cng ngh. Russell
l mt thc o dnh cho nhng c phiu nh hn. Tuy nhin, c hai
ch s ny u c xu hng i ln theo Dow v S&P500 nu xu hung
th tnrng thc s vng mnh.
Phn tch hiu qu c phiu trong $ di snh vi cc c phiu khc

ng mt vai tr hu ch y. T sut ca Nasdaq trn S&P500 cho
ta bit liu c phi c phiu cng ngh ang dn u hay i sau. Thng
rt tt cho th trng nu c phiu cng ngh dn u v ung t sut
tng. (Xem hnh 18.11). Php so snh gia ch s Russell 2000 v s&p
500 cho ta bit duc liu binh on c theo sau tng qun hay
474 John J. Murphy
Hnh 18.11 sut Nasdaq/S&P500 cho ta bit nhm c phiu cng ngh
ang dn u hay tht li. Th trng s tr nn tt hn khi ng t sut ny
tng.
khng. Khi nhng chng khon nh c cng tung i km hay tt

li kh xa so vi nhng chng khon ln, thi l tn hiu cnh bo s
suy yu ca chi s rng th trung. (Xem hnh 18.12)
TM LUC
Vic so snh hai chi s trung bnh d tm kim tin hiu xc nhn hay
phn k bt ngun t l thuyt Dow. Trong Chng 2, chng ta tho
lun v tm quan trng ca mi quan h gia chi s Dow Industrials v
Dow Transports. Tin hiu mua trong l thuyt Dow s hin din khi c
hai ch s ny t ngng cao mi. Khi mt ch s chnh lch vi chi
s kia, mt tn hiu cnh bo s uc pht ra. Nhng nghin cu v ch
s rng th trung v nhng ch lin quan n s xc nhn v
phn k xut hin dui nhiu dng. Nguyn tc chung cn phi tun
Hnh 18.12 So snh gia chi s Russell 2000 v Ch s Dow Industrials
theo s lng trung bnh di ng th trng chng khon cng ln -

nhng ng c cng xu hng - th kh nng xu hng tip tc din
ra cng cao. Ngoi ra, cn kim tra ng tng gim, ng cao thp
v ng khi lng tng gim chc rng chng c cng hng i.
CHNG 19
Danh sch kim tra
Cun sch ny chng minh rng phn tch k thut l s kt hp nhiu

cch tip cn vi nhau. -Mi-cch tip cn l mt phn thng tin cu
thnh phn tch k thut. Phn tch k thut ging nh mnh ghp ca
nhiu mu thng tin, tng t mt tr chi ghp hnh khng l. Cch
tip cn phn tch th trng ca ti l kt hp cng nhiu k thut cng
tt. Mi cch tip cn li hiu qu trong mt th trng nht dnh. iu
quan trng l bit c cng c no cn nhn mnh trong tnh hung
hin ti. iu ny din ra cng kin thc v kinh nghim.
Tt c nhng cch tip cn u c im tuong ng no d v chng

b sung cho nhau. Khi hiu c nhng mi quan h lin i ny v c
kh nng xem phn tch k thut l s tng hp ca cc phn trong mi
quan h ny, l lc ngui s dng xng ng vi danh xung nh
phn tch k thut. Danh sch kim tra sau y gip ngi s dng lm
quen vi tt c cc thng tin c bn. Sau ny, danh sch kim ba s
khng cn xa l vi bn. Danh sch ny khng bao gm tt c, nhung
c gn nh y cc yu t quan trng cn ghi nh. C v nh phn
tch k thut him khi bao gm vic thc hin nhng iu hin nhin.
Nh phn tch k thut lun khng ngng tim kim tin hiuca bin
dng th trng tirng lai. Tn hiu cui cng y nh giao dch vo mt
478 John J. Murphy
hng hay hung cn li thng l yu t ph khng uc nhiu ngui

khc ch n. Nh phn tch cng cn nhc nhiu yu t th cng c
nhiu kh nng tm c tn hiu ng.
DANH SCH KIM TRA

1. Chiu hung ca th trung chung l g?
2. Chiu hng ca cc nhm th trung chuyn ngnh khc nhau l g?
3. th hng tun v hng thng cho thy iu g?
4. Cc xu hng chnh, trung gian v nh tng hay gim hay i ngang?
5. Ngng h tr v khng c quan trng nm u?
6. ng xu hng v knh gi quan trng nm u?
7. Khi lng giao dch v so lng hp ng cha tt ton c xc
nhn dng thi gi khng?
8. Ngung thoi li 33%, 50% v 66% u?
9. C vng trng gi khng v l loi vng trng g?
10. C m hnh o chiu chnh no hin din y khng?
11 .C m hnh tip din no hin din y khng?
12. Mc tiu gi ca nhng m hnh ny u?
13. Cc ung trung bnh di ng ch hng no?
14. Ch bo dao ng th hin mua qu mc hay bn qu mc?
15. C s phn k chi bo dao dng khng?
16. Nhng con s quan im i lp c cho thy mt im cc no
hay khng?
17. M hnh sng Elliott cho thy diu g?
18. C m hnh 3 sng hay 5 sng no hin din khng?
19. S thoi li hay ngung c k vng Fibonacci l g?
20. C inh hay y chu k no n hn hay khng?
21. Th trung ang tnh tin sang tri hay sang p h n
22.. Xu hng trn my dich chuyn theo cch no: tng, gim hay i ngang?
23. th im v hnh hay th hnh nn cho thy iu gi?
Sau khi c uc kt lun v th trung u c gi ln v gi

xung, ta hy t tr li nhng cu hi sau dy:
1. Xu hung th trung hin ti s nh th no sau mt vi thng ti?
2. Ti s mua hay bn trong th trng ny?
3. Ti nn giao dch bao nhiu n v?
4. Ri ro cho quyt nh sai lm ca ti dng gi bao nhiu?
5. Mc tiu li nhun l bao nhiu?
6. Ti s gia nhp th trng ti u?
7. Ti nn s dng loi lnh no?
8. Ti s t lnh dng l ca ti mc no?
Vic thc hin tt c nhng iu ny trong danh sch khng c

ngha l bn s ua ra kt lun chnh xc. N ch gip bn t ng cu
hi v vic t ng cu hi l cch chc chn nht tm ng cu tr
li. Cha kha thnh cng trong giao dch l kin thc, theo nguyn tc
v kin tri. Gi s bn c kin thc, cch tt nht d theo ng nguyn
tc v c th kin nhn l lm nhng bi tp nh v c k hoch hnh
ng. Bc cui cng l thc hin k hoch . Cho d khng m bo
s thnh cng cho bn, nhng n s gia tng kh nng chin thng ca
bn trong th trung ti chinh.
LM TH NO K T HP PHN TC H K THUT V
PHN TCH C BN
Mc d gia cc nh giao dch k thut v c bn tn ti s bt ng
trong quan im song vin c nhng kha cnh m h c th hp tc v
li ch chung. Phn tch th trng c th uc tip cn bng mt hng
khc. Mc d lun tin rng yu t k thut ng vai tr dn ung trong
mi quan h vi yu t co bn, nhng ti cng tin rng bt k mt bin
480 John J. Murphy
dng th trung quan trng no cng bt ngun t nhng yu t c bn.

Chnh v th, diu ny c ngha i vi nh phn tch k thut c
c mt s hiu bit v diu kin c bn ca th trng. Mt nh phn
tch k thut c th hi nh phn tch c bn v cc vn C0 bn no
din ra xc minh mt vn ng th trng quan trng trn th
gi. Ngoi ra, vic tm hiu cch th trng phn ng vi cc tin tc c
bn cng l mt s chi dn k thut tuyt ho.
Phn tch c bn c th s dng yu t k thut l xc nhn mt kt

qu phn tch hay l mt tin hiu cnh bo diu g quan trng c th
s xy ra. Nh phn tch co bn tham kho th gi hoc s dng h
thng theo xu hng trn my tnh nh l b lc nhm gip h trnh
uc nhng hnh ng i nguc vi xu hung hin ti. Mt s hnh
ng bt thng trn th gi c th l s cnh bo cc phn tch vin
c bn v khin h kim tra mi trng c bn cn thn hn. Trong sut
khong thi gian m trch mng phn tch k thut trong mt cng ty
mi gii ln, nhiu ln ti tm n b phn phn tch C bn tho
lun v mt bin ng th trng no trn d th gi. Ti thung
nhn uc nhng cu tr li i loi nh n s chng bao gi xy ra
hay v phuong. Thng thung, sau vi tun sau, nhn vt ny lm
vo cnh ri tung nh canh h khi tm hiu nhng nguyn nhn c bn
gii thch cho bin dng bt ng ca th trng. Lun lun c nhiu
c hi kt hp hai phuong php ny.
NH K THUT TH TRUNG C CNG NHN

Rt nhiu ngi s dng phn tch k thut v dua ra quan im k
thut v nhiu th trng khc nhau. Nhng h c thc s kh nng
lm vic khng? Lm th no bit c? C bao gi bn i khm
phng mch ca mt bc s khng bng cp khng. Hay c khi no
bn li i xin li khuyn t mt v lut s chua tt nghip hay khng?
Cn chuyn vin k ton th chc chn phi c bng thuyt k ton
(Certifcate forTheory in Accountng - CTA). Nu hi mt nh phn
tch v vic nh gi mt c phiu ph thng, bn phi chc chn rng
h l mt chuyn gia phn tch ti chnh dc cng nhn (Chartered

Financial Analyst - CFA). Ti sao bn khng cn trng nh vy vi mt
nh phn tch k thut?
Hip hi nhng nh phn tch k thut th trng (Market

Technician Association - MTA) gii quyt vn ny bng vic gii
thiu chng trinh Nh k thut th trng t chun (Chartered Market
Technician - CMT). Chung trinh CMT l mt quy trnh gm ba buc
kim tra kh nng ca mt nh phn tch k thut vi danh xung CMT.
Hu ht nhng nh phn tch th trng chuyn nghip u phi tri qua
chng trnh ny.
HIP HI NHNG NH K THUT TH TRNG (MTA)

Hip hi nhng nh k thut th trng (MTA) l hip hi k thut lu
i nht v ni ting nht th gii. Hip hi ny uc thnh lp nm
1972 khuytTkhlch cr tung v k thut giao dch, o to cho
cng chng cng nh cc cng ng u t, v ban hnh mt nguyn
tc o c v chun mc chuyn nghip trong cng ng phn tch k
thut. (Vo ngy 11 thng 3 nm 1998, MTA t chc l mng sinh
nht th 25 ca mnh. S kin ny c nh du bi mt bi thuyt
trnh dc bit do ba thnh vin sng lp - Ralph Acampora, John
Brooks v John Greeley thc hin ti cuc hp hng thng uc t chc
New York). Cc thnh vin ca MTA bao gm nhng nh phn tch
k thut lm vic ton thi gian v nhng bn c quan tm (uc gi i
cc chi nhnh lin kt). Mt cuc hp uc t chc hng thng ti New
York v mt hi tho thng nin uc t chc vo thng 5 trn ton
quc. Cc thnh vin c truy cp vo th vin MTA v h thng
thng tin in t. Cc bn tin thng v tp ch ni b theo k cng
c pht hnh. Mt s iu l p dng cho cc vng cng uc ban
hnh. Cc thnh vin MTA cng l nhng ng nghip ti Lin on
cc nh phn tch k thut th gii (International Federation of
Technical Analysts - IFTA).
482 John J. Murphy
s y Tlfep CN PHN TlCH KY THUT TR&N TON CU

Trong suot ma thu nm 1985, mt cuoc hop duoc to chc tai Nht Ban
vdi dai dien l cc nh phn tich ky thuat ca nhieu quoc gia khc nhau
tren the gicri nhm soan tho hien phap cho Lien don cc nh phn tich
ky the gidi (IFTA). Ke tCr do, to chc ny da phat trien bao gom cc hiep
hi phn tich ky thut a hon hai mucri quoc gia. Mot trong nhng dieu
ly th nht cho nhng ai muon trd thnh thnh vien l nhng cuoc hop
thudng men duoc to chc tai cc d{a diem nhu c, Nht Ban, Paris v
Roma bdi moi mt quoc gia thnh vien se dung ra to chc hi tho. Ti
cng rat vinh du khi duoc trao gii nhat tai hi tho IFTA vo nm 1992
vi su cong hien xuat se cho ngnh phn tich ky thut the gii.
PHN TlCH KY THUT VI BAT KY TfeN GOI NO

Sau mt the ky s dung My v 300 nm tai Nht Bn, phn tich ky
thuat da trd nen pho bien hon bao gid het. DT nhien, khng phi lc no
n cng duoc goi l phn tich ky thut. Trong cuon sch Nh du tu true
quan ca ti, ti goi n l phn tich true quan. Don gin d l no luc
nhm keo moi ngudi ra khi ci ten goi dang so nhu phn tich ky thut
v cho phep ho kiem nghiem cch tiep cn ny mt cch cu the hon.
Cho du ban c dinh goi d l gi di na thi phn tich ky thut van duoc
thurc hnh dudi nhieu ten goi khc nhau. Nhieu to chc ti chinh tuyen
dung cc chuyen gia phn tich vdi cng viec ch yeu l phn tich mt
luong du lieu thj trudng khong lo nhm tim kiem loai cd phieu hoc
nhdm cd phieu dt gi (duoc mua qu mc) v re mat (duoc bn qu
mc). Nhng ngudi ny duoc goi l chuyen gia phn tich dinh luong,
nhung con so m ho phn tich cng chinh l di tuong m cc nh phn
tich ky thuat nghien ngam. Cc td bo ti chinh da viet ve mt tng ldp
nh giao dich mdi co ten goi l nh giao dich "xung luong". Nhng
ngudi ny lun chuyen nguon tien ra khoi nhng cd phieuhoc nhdm
cd phieu c xung luong yeu v do tien bac vo nhng cd phieu cd xung
luong manh. Ho s dung mt ky thut c ten goi l phn tich hieu qu
cd phieu trong sur doi snh vdi cc cd phieu khc. DT nhien, chng ta
tha nhn cm l xung lung v hiu qu c phiu nh l nhng

thut ng phn tch k thut.
y c s hin din ca hot ng nng cao gi (upgrade) v nh

tt gi (downgrade) c phiu do cc cng ty mi gii thc hin. Bn c
bao gii ch n nhng thay i v mt c bn thung xuyn din ra
vo ngay hm sau ca int c ph v hoc rt gi quan trng? Cc nh
kinh t hc - nhng ngui khng t nhn mnh l chuyn gia phn tch
k thut - thng s dng th o lung chiu hung ca lm pht,
li sut, v tt c cc loi ch! bo kinh t. V h bn v xu hng ca
nhng th ny. i vi h, ngay c nhng cng c c bn nh t sut
gi/li nhun u c kha cnh k thut ca chng. Khi dua chng vo
biu thc chnh l bn dang buc vo th gii ca phn tch k thut.
Hoc khi cho rng c tc ca th trung chng khon qu thp, c phi
nh phn tch chng khon c rng gi ang qu cao? chng phi
ta ang cng ni v vn th trung mua qu mc sao?
Cui cng, c nhng hc gi ti pht minh phn tch k thut

di tn gi Ti chnh Hnh vi (Behavorial Finance). Trong nhiu nm,
cc nh hc thut tn ng Thuyt Th trung Hiu qu (Efficient
Market Hypothesis - Thut ny cho rng th gi c phiu lun phn
nh dy cc thng tin v gi tr.) nhm chng minh rng phn tch
k thut khng hiu qu.
CC D TR LIN BANG RT cuc CNG THNG QUA

Trong thng 8 nm 1995, Ngn hng D tr Lin bang New York
cng b mt bo co nhn vin vi ta d: M hnh u v vai: khng
phi l mt m hnh d v. Bo co ny c mc tiu kim tra tnh hiu
lc ca m hnh u v vai trong giao dch ngoi hi. (An bn u tin
ca cun sch ny uc trch dn nh mt trong nhng ngun ti liu
u tin v phn tch k thut). Cu m du trong phn gii thiu uc
th hin nh sau:
484 John J. Murphy
Phn tch k thut - mt hnh thc d on bin ng gi da trn

nhng vn dng gi din ra - to ra nhng li nhun dng k
mang tinh thng k, bt chp s bt ng vi quan im th
trng hiu qu ca a s cc nh kinh t hc." (Ngn hng D
tr Lin bang New York, C.I. Osler v P.H. Kevin Chang, Bo co
nhn vin, s 4, Thng 8/1995).
Mt bo co mi hn dc cng b vo ma thu nm 1997 bi Ngn

hng D tr Lin bang St. Louis cng gii thiu v s hu dng ca
phn tch k thut v nhng kh nng tuong i ca thuyt th trng
hiu qu. (Mt ln n, Phn tch K thut Th trng Tng lai
echnical Analys o f the Future Markets) li c trch dn nh l
ngun thng tin ch yu v phn tch k thut.) Trong phn "Suy ngm
li v thuyt th trng hiu qu", tc gi vit:
S thnh cng ca cc nguyn tc giao dch k thut trong nhng

phn truc l in hnh cho s lng cc nghin cu sau ny cho
thy thuyt th trng hiu qu khng th m t cch thc hot
dng thc s ca th trung ngoi hi. Mc d khng khin
nhng ngui s dng i thuyt ny ngc nhin, cc kt qu cng
thuyt phc uc cc nh kinh t kim nghim li c tnh ca
th trung ... - diu c th gii thch cho kh nng sinh li ca
phn tch k thut. (Neely).
TM LUC
Nu vic m phng l hnh thc tt nht ca s tn ln v dp th phn
tch k thut s rt uc tn vinh. Phn tich k thut uc thc hnh
di nhiu tn gi khc nhau v nhng ngui thc hnh n i khi li
khng nhn ra uc rng h ang s dng cng c hu hiu ny. Ty
nhin, trn thc t n vn ang uc s dng. Phn tch k thut cng
cng ngy cng tr nn tin b hn. V d, phn gii thiu v phn tch
lin th trng thay di s tp trung t s phn tch th trung n
l sang mt quan im tng tc ca cc th tiung ti chinh. tng
v cc th trng ton cu c kt ni vi nhau khng cn uc em

ra cht vn na. l l do v sao ngn ng phn tch k thut tr
nn c bit hu ch trong mt th gii ni cc th Irng ti chinh
trong v ngoi nuc tr nn ph thuc ln nhau. Trong mt th gii ni
cng ngh thng tin v cc phng tin truyn thng hin i i hi
s phn hi lp tc, th kh nng c hiu cc tin hiu ca th trng
tr nn thit yu hn bao gi ht. V vic c hiu nhng tin hiu th
trung chinh l vic m phn tch k thut d v ang lm. Charles
Dow gii thiu phn tch k thut vo u th k 20. V khi th k 20
tri qua, hn Dow s rt t ho v nhng gi ng khi dng.
Phu luc
PH LC A
Cc ch bo k thut
nng cao*
Ph lc ny gii thiu n cc bn nhng phng php k thut hin

i hn c th'c s"ng ring hoc kt hp vi nhng nghin cu
k thut khc. Cng nhu mi cch tip cn k thut khc, nh u t
nn thng xuyn thc hin vic kim tra dc lp v nghin cu trc
khi thc s u t.
CH s NHU CU (DEMAND INDEX - DI)

a s cc nh k thut th trng dng rng phn tch khi lung giao
dch l mt thnh t quan trng trong vic xc nh chiu hung th
trung. Chi s nhu cu (Demand Index - DI) l mt trong nhng chi
bo khi luiig giao dch sm c James Sibbett pht trin trong
nhng nm 70. Cng thc tinh ton kh phc tp (Xem cui phn ph
lc ny). Chi s nhu cu l h s p lc mua trn p lc bn. Khi p lc
mua ln hn p lc bn, ung DI trn ung s 0 tc th trng
duong. p lc bn ln hcm ngha l ung DI bn dui dung s 0
cho thy gi s gim. a s cc nh giao dch cng ch i s phn k
gia ng DI v ng gi.
*Ph lc ny do Thomas E. Aspray cung cp.

Hnh A. 1 l th hng tun Tri phiu Chnh ph t u nm 1994

n cui nm 1997. T thng 4 nm thng 11 nm 1994, ng D I hu
nh nm di ng s 0 khi tri phiu gim t 104 xung 96. Trong
khi gi t nhng ngng thp mi (ng A ), ng D I to nhng
mc thp cao hon (ng B). y l mt tn hiu tch cc in hnh,
hay l s phn k dng cho thy gi tri phiu ang chm y. S phn
k c xc nhn khi ng D I ch chuyn ln trn ng so 0 ti
im 1. ng D I chm mc cao nht sau t hi phc vo cui thng
5 nm 1995 ti im 2, ri sau ri xung trong 6 tun tip theo trc
khi giao xung di ng s 0 ti im 3. Tinh hnh vn tiu cc trong
5 tun trc khi li chuyn hng tch cc. Trong t phc hi tip
theo, ng D I hnh thnh mt ngng cao thp hn vo cui thng 11
ti im 4. Trong khi ng D I ang thp dn (ng D ), hp ng tri
phiu gn nh tng 6 im (ng C ). S phn k dung v m cnh
bo mt nh gi.
Hnh A.I Ch s nhu cu (DI) kt hp gi v khi lng giao dch c th

hin di dng th tn sut. Gi tr trn ngng 0 l dng, di s 0 l
m. Lu den s phn k dng vo cui nm 994 v s phn k m cui
nm 1995. (Courtesy MetaStock Equis International).
Chi bo ny cng uc s dng cho chng khon. th hng tun

ca General Motor (hnh A.2) th hin ung DI uc dng theo dng
ung ch khng phi th tn sut. N khin cc ng xu hung
c v d dng hon trn ch s. Bn thn ti nhn thy vic phn tch
dung xu hng cc k c gi tr. ung xu hung ca chi bo .thung
b ph v trc ng xu hng gi. Trng hp ny tng din ra vo
cui nm 199S khi ung xu hng gim ca ung DI (ung A) b
ph v truc s ph v ung xu hng gi mt tun (ung B). Nh
trn th cho thy, nu vic mua vo sm mt tun c th gip ci
thin ng k mc gi gia nhp. ung DI cng cnh bo mt ngng
gi cao vo gia thng 4 nm 1996. Trong khi GM hnh thnh ngng
cao mi (ung C) th cc ngung cao ca ng DI thp dn (ng
D). Tin hiu cnh bo xut hin truc t gim gi quan trng trong
thng 6 v thng 7.
Hnh A.2 Chi s nhu cu (dung k lin) so vi th hng tun ca GM.

ng xu hng ca dng DI b ph v truc ng xu hung ca th gi.
Luu n s phn k m (gim gi) vo thng 4 nm 1996. (Cung cp bi
MetaStock, Equis International.)
492 John J. Murphy
CH S PAYOFF HERRICK (HPI)

Ch bo ny uc xy dng bi John Herrick v c s dng phn
tch cc hp dng hng ha tuong lai thng qua s thay i ca s
lung hp ng chua tt ton. Nh uc tho lun trong Chng 7,
s thay i ca s lng hp dng cha tt ton to ra manh mi cho
cc nh giao dch trong vic nhn bit uc xu hng th trng c bn
vng hay khng
Chi s Payoff Herrick s dng gi, khi lung giao dch v s lng
hp dng chua tt ton xc nh dng tin ra hay vo ca mt loi
hng ha no . N gip nh giao dch nhn bit s phn k gia gi
v s lng hp ng chua tt ton. iu ny rt quan trng v tm l
mua hoc bn thng c xc nh bng vic phn tch s lng hp
ng cha tt ton trong chi s Payoff ca Herrick.
Hnh A.3 C h i s P a y o ff Herrick (HPI) th hin di dng th l n sut vi

gi c ph. HPI s d n g gi, khi l ng giao dch v s l n g hp dng cha
tt ton trong cc tnh ton ca m n h n g thi c s dng cho th trng
lng lai. Vic giao nh a u ln trn ng s 0 l tin h iu m ua (B), giao xung
di l tin hiu bn (S).
S din gii co bn nht v chi s HPI l liu ch n nm trn hay

di ng s 0. Gi tr dng c ngha l HPI th hin gi tng v s
lng hp ng chua tt ton tng cng vi gi. Ngc li, gi tr m
cho thy tin ang chy ra khi loi hng ha uc phn tch.
Mt trong nhng th tmng hng ha c tnh dao dng ln hn l c

ph c dng trn hnh A.3. Trong thng 3 v thng 4 nm 1997, HPI
4 ln ct ung s 0 trong tn hiu dng cui cng l vo du thng
4 (B) cho n u thng 6. HP1 ri xung ung s 0 vo thng 6, v
mc d gi gim thp hon cc ngng cao, c ph vn gim 70 xu. Mt
ln na, HPI chuyn hung dng vo cui thng 7 tin st cc ngng
thp. Trong hai thng tip theo c haitn hiu ngn hn v sau l mt
tn hiu bn di hn khc. y l c im ca HPI uc s dng trong
d th hng ngy khi n ct ln trn v xung dui ng s 0 mt vi
ln trc khi xut hin tin hiu mua hoc bn di hn cui cng.
Cng ging nh chi s-Nhu cu, HPI chi hiu qu nht kh uc s

dng trong d liu hng tun bi c t tn hiu sai hn. Phn tch s
phn k cng c th uc s dng cnh bo nh giao dch v s thay
i dng tin tduong sang m. C nhng vi d r rng v th tuong
lai Tri phiu Chnh ph (hnh A.4) trong qung thi gian khong 6
nm. HP1 vn dng t cui nm 1992 cho n cui 1993. HP dt nh
u nm 1993, v khi tri phiu tng gn 10 im (ng A), HPI hnh
thnh mt ngng cao mi thp hn (dng B). S phn k m cnh
bo cc nh giao dch tri phiu v s rt gi trong nm 1994. HPI dao
dng quanh ng s 0 cui thng 10 nm 1993, nhng nhch nh ln
phn dung vo u nm 1994 truc khi xung di dng s 0.
HPI chm mc thp nht na u nm 1994 v chm y trc gi. Khi
gi to nn nhng ngng thp thp hn (ng C), HPI dang to nn
nhng ngng thp tng dn v s phn k ducmg (ng D). HPI quay
u vo vng dng thng 12 nm 1994 khi tri phiu tin gn nhng
ngung thp. S phn k m xut hin cui nm 1995 (ng F), sau
khi chng khon hi phc 25 im t ngung thp cui nm 1994.
ung s 0 b ct vi ln trong nm 1996 v u nm 1997 true khi
494 John J. Murphy
Hnh A.4 M hnhJuan ca ch slerrick Payoff vi Tri phiu Chinh ph.

Lu s phn k gim gi vo nm 1993 v 1995, cng nh s phrt k tng
gi vo nm 1994
HP1 dch chuyn chc chn vo khu vc dng. Hai v d ny cho thy
l do ti sao HPI v vic phn tch $0 lng hp ng chua tt ton li
gip ch cho phn tch chiu hung th trung hng ha.
DI STARC V KNH GI KELTNER
Nh tho lun trong Chng 9, k thut di bng uc s dng

trong nhiu nm. Hai dng m ti thch nht c da trn co s chs
o lng mc bin ng ca gi (Average True Range). Bt chp h
$0 ph bin ny, hai dng di bng ny vn uc s dng theo nhiu
cch. Average True Range l binh qun bin gi chinh xc trong
khong thi gian X. Bin chnh xc (True Range) l khong cch ln
nht t ngng cao nht n ngng thp nht hm nay, gi ng ca
hm qua n ngng cao nht hm nay, hay gi ng ca hm qua n
ngng thp nht hm nay. Hy c cun Khi nim mi v h thng
giao dch k thut (New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems) ca

Welles Wilder.
Manning Stoller, mt chuyn gia kinh doanh hng ha ni ting, d

pht trin knh gi bin trung bnh Stoller hay di bng Starc. Theo
cng thc ca ng, bin d chinh xc trung binh 15 giai on c
nhn i cng vo ung trung bnh di ng 6 giai on hoc ly
ng trung binh di ng 6 giai on tr i kt qu. ng bng trn
l starc+; ng di l starc-. S bin ng ra ngoi phm vi cc di
bng ny l khng ph bin v cho thy mt tinh hung c bit. Theo
cch ny, chng uc s dng nh b lc giao dch. Khi gi tin gn
hoc trn ung bng starc+, dy l thi im ri ro cao mua vo
v thi im ri ro thp bn ra. Ngc li, nu gi trn hoc di
ng bng starc-, l vng bn ri ro cao v dim thch hp d mua
vo.
th tip tlin hng tun gi vng tcmg lai (hnh A.S) uc v vi

c hai ung bng stare-*- v starc-. Mc d ng thi gi yu, ng
bng starc ch ra rng y khng phi l lc thch hp bn. Bng
vic ch i, c v nh mt c hi bn tt hon s din ra. Ch ba tun
sau, vng tng $22 ng bng starc+ (im s). im 2 l im bn
ri ro thp. Vo thng 7 (im 3), gi vng gim nhiu xung dui
ng bng starc, nhung thay v gim su hon, gi li dch chuyn di
ngang trong 12 tun k*tip. Gi vng sau li bt u gim t thng
11 n thng 12 nm 1997 v chm ng bng starc- ba ln (im 4).
Trong tt c cc v d, gi lun lun n nh hoc tng trong 1-2 tun.
Nhng ng bng ny hot ng hiu qu trong tt c cc khung thi
gian cho d ngn chi n 10 pht. Di bng Starc c th gip nh giao
dch trnh vic chy theo th trung kt qu l gia nhp mc gi
khng tt.
Knh gi Keltner ban u duc pht trin bi Chester Keltner trong

cun sch ca ng xut bn nm 1960 c la Lm th no kim
lin trong th trng hng ha (How to Make Money in Commodities).
4% John J. Murphy
G i vng hng tun vi

d i bing Stare
ng bin trn
starc+
rag gia = ng
trung bnh 6 tun
trng bin dui

slarc-
Hnh A.s Di b n g S ta rc dng quanh d n g tr u n g b n h di n g hng tun gi

vng trong 6 tun. im I v 3 th hin gi bt li sau khi roi xuong di
ng bng bn dui. im 2 th hin gi roi xung s a u khi lng ln trn
ng bng bn trn.
Linda Raschke, mt nh giao dch hng ha thnh cng gii thiu

li cho cc nh phn tch k thut. Trong vic ty bin ca Linda
Raschke, cc di bng cng uc da trn c s ch s o lng mc
bin ng ca gi (Average True Range - ATR), nhng ATR c
tnh trn 10 giai on. Gi tr ATR dc nhn i v cng vo ung
trung bnh di dng s m 20 giai on cho ung bng trn v ly
ng trung binh di ng s m 20 giai don tr cho gi tr c
ng bng dui.
Cch s dng knh gi Keltner rt khc vi di bng starc. Khi gi

tin n bn trn dng bng trn, tin hiu s l dng vi n ch ra s
ph v trong bin dng i ln. Ngc li, khi gi rt xung dui ung
bng bn di, tn hiu s l m v cho bit gi s gim. Trong nhiu
kha cnh, dy ch l s th hin bng d ha ca h thong ph v knh
gi 4 tun dc tho lun trong Chng 9.
Hnh A-6 l th hng ngy hp ng ng tong lai thng 3 nm

1998. Gi ng ca bn dui ung bng di vo cui thng 10 nm
1997 ti im 1. N ch ra rng gi c th bt du mt xu hung gim
mi v gi ng gim 16 xu trong hai thng k tip.
C nhiu im nm di ng bng di trong thi gian trn. Cho

n khi gi ng ca bn trn ng bin trn, tn hiu m vn c hiu
lc. th th hai l gi c ph thng 3 nm 1998 (hnh A.7) v gii
thch mt tn hiu mua dung ti im 1. Sau hai ln ng ca trn
ung bin trn, gi s gim xung ung EMA 20 chu k. Trong mt
th trng tng gi, ng EMA 20 chu k hot ng nh mt ung
h tr. Mt vi ngy sau khi ung EMA ct ng gi (ti im 2) thi
gi c ph bt du tng mnh 30 xu trong vi tun.
Hnh A.6 Knh gi Kellner c dng xung quanh ng trung bnh di dng
lm mt theo so m 20 ngy ca gi ng hng ngy. Vi ch bo ny. nhng
vn ng xung dui dng bin di (nh im 1) l tin hiu suy yu.
498 John J. Murphy
M

itk'littM
'"' ........: th c ph hng
ngy vi d i Kellner
X :
t
Ifiim. 1"Uli
1
/ / AOAM
-^ !*
M
H in h A.7 K n h g i Keltner trn th c ph h n g n gy. im 1 th hin g i

ph v ng b i n xu hng trn l mt tn hiu th trung mnh m. Lu
rng sau m t tin h i u mua, gi tm th y ngng h tr t i ng trung bnh di
ng s m (dng gia) ti im 2.
C hai k thut ny u em li mt cch tip cn thay th cc

dng bao vy t l phn trm hoc di bng lch chun (ng bng
Bollinger). Khng c k thut no uc khuyn khch s dng c lp
nhng c th uc xem nh nhng cng c giao dch.
CNG THC CH S NHU CU

Chi s nhu cu (DI) tinh ton hai hai gi tr, p lc mua (Buying
Pressure - BP) v p lc bn (Selling Pressure - SP), v ly t sut ca
c hai. DI bng BP/SP. Trong cng thc ny c mt s bin th v y

l mt dng:
Nu gi tng:
BP= V hoc khi lng giao dch

SP=V/P trong p l s thay i % gi
Neu gi gim:
BP=V/P trong p l l s thay i % gi

SP= V hoc khi lng giao dch
V p l mt s thp phn (<1) nn p c iu chnh bng cch nhn

vi s K khng i.
P=P(K)
K=(3xC)/VA
Trong d, c l gi dng ca v VA (bnh qun dao ng) l ung

trung bnh 10 ngy ca bin gi 2 ngy (ngng cao cao nht -
ngng thp thp nht).
N u BP>SP th DI = SP/BP
Chi s nhu cu c sn trong danh sch th ca Megastock.

PH LC B
K thut phn tch th

trng (Market profile)*
GII THIU
Mc ch ca pEan ny l g th c h th no l K thut phn tch th
trng v xc nh nhng nguyn tc c bn ca n. Trc giai on
1980, cng c k thut duy nht th thanh v th im v hnh.
Sau , K thut phn tch th trng1c gii thiu m rng them
danh sch cc cng c k thut, v c bn, K thut phn tch th
trng l cch tip cn mang tnh thng k p dng cho vic phn tch
d liu gi. V i nhng ngi khng c kin thc C bn v thng k
hc th m t v d quen thuc s gip ch hn. H y xem v d v m t
nhm sinh vin. M t s c im rt cao (90 im hoc cao hn), s
khc c im rt thp (60 im hoc thp hn), s cn li im trung
Ph lc ny do Dennis c. Hynes son tho.

'K thut phn tch th trung l thut ng uc ng k thung hiu bi sn giao dch Chicago
(CBOT), sau dy c s ng nh i thut ng K thut phn tch th trng. Khi nim ny c J.
Peter Steidlmayer, ngi tng c kinh nghim lm vic ti CBOT, phi tricn. bit thm Ihng (in,
hy lin h vi CBOT hoc dc cun sch cui cog ca Steidlmayer: 141 WEST JACKSON - 1996
'Ban u duc s dng cho gi hng ha tng lai, dng ny c (h uc s dng cho bt k loi
d liu gi no c hot ng giao dch licn tc.
502 John J. M urphy
3S556O05 7O7$8O 85 9 O 9 5 100

Diem thi Hnh B.l
bnh (75 im ). y, th l n s u t uc s d ng m t s p h n
b th n g x u y n nhng kt qu k im tra ny bng m t bc tranh c tnh
thng k. (X e m hnh B .l) .
C th thy rng m c im ph bin nht hay dim c tan so ti da

l 75 (c 6 sinh v in ) trong khi p h m v i im l t thp nht n cao
nht (SS n 9 5 ). H y luu cch phn b theo tam gic di xng quanh
im c tn s ti a nh trn. i vi s phn phi i x ng hon ho,
im c tn s ti a s bng im bnh qun. T ip th eo, s phn phoi
theo "hnh chung" l tn hiu ca s phn phi chun. i v i s phn
phi chun hon ho th khong cch ca m t lch chun tucmg
quan vi s lun g c th ca c c quan st. V d, nu im kim tra
c phn phi hon ho th eo cch thng thng th 68,3% s im
ny s ri vo trong phm vi m t lch chun. M c d d liu thc
t c v nh khng cu thnh phn phi ch u n hon ho, nhung thng
thng, nhng m i quan h ny vn c th c s dng.
C ng nh nhng y u t do lng t nhin khc (vi d, im kim

tra ti trung h c, m c dn s , v .v ...), g i p h n p h i xung quanh m t
m c gi trung bnh. V y th ca K thut phn tch th trng l g?
Hy nhn nhn n nh m t s phn phi gi n gin v thng x uyn
v uc hin th nh l d th tn sut g i xoay mt (X em hnh B .2a v
B.2b).
Biu gi Biu gi
m hnh hng dc m hnh hng ngang
:
ilUll 4 R |l B 8
H n h B .2 a D n g tru y n th n g H n h B .2 b c x o a y m t
Yu t quan trng nht ca th K thut phn tch th trung l

ung cong chun hnh chung c s dng trong vic th hin s
phn phi gi Mt khi ung cong gi c tha nhn th gi c tn
sut ti a hoc gi trung bnh c th c nhn din, v s phn tn
gi lch chun) c th c tnh ton v cc bo co xc sut c th
duc thc hin trong mi lin quan n vic phn phi gi. Vi d, gn
nh ton b gi tr gim trong vng 3 d lch chun so vi im trung
bnh, mc d 70% (chnh xc l 68,3%) gim trong vng mt lch
chun so vi dng trung bnh (Xem hnh B.3).
K thut phn tch th trng cho ta

mt bc tranh v din bin trong
thi dim hin ti trn th trng.
ci tin hot ng giao dch, th
trung trong tnh trng cn bng
hoc hung v pha trc. Xu
hung t nhin ca K thut phn
tch th trng l hng v dng i
xng, ni mt cch n gin l mc
cn bng (dim cn bng) hoc
s mt cn bng tn ti gia ngui
H n h B .l th K th u t p h n tch
th tr n g t h h i n h o t n g th
..mua v ngi bn. Khi th trng
tr n g c p h n p h o i c h u n u nng ng, th miu t im cn
n. bng l khong thi gian th trung
504 John J. M urphy
thng b n g - khi phn b o g i l hinh doi x n g, v th e h ien sir m at cn

bang khi g i k h n g d u o c phn b o lech di.
Ky thut phn tich thi tnrcmg kh ng phi l he th o n g g ia o d ich v

cu n g ch n g tao ra nhfm g khuyen nghj g ia o dich. M uc tieu c a d o thi l
gi p ngu ai sir d u n g ch n g k ien s u tien trien trong g i tri ca thi tnrcmg
d o i v o i sir lp lai c a g i th eo thai gian. K y ih u t p h n lie h th i iru cm g
l c n g cu h o t r q q u y e l d jn h d i h i ngircri s d u n g phi lu y en tp c ch
dira ra dnh g i c nhn trong qu trinh g ia o dich.
D THI KY THUT PHN TICH THI TRUNG

Ky thut phn tich thi trung the h ien g i v th i g ia n th eo m t c ch
true quan n h ng g i d ien ra trong m t p h ien g ia o d ich dem le. N tao ra
m t cau trc h op ly c h o v ie c quan st hnh v i thi truon g thi h ie n tai
qua s u phn p h o i g i qua ch u ky theri gian. B ien d g i n i rng th eo
c c h ie u ngan g v d o c trong su o t phien. V y d o thi k y thut phn tich
thi truong d u o c d u n g nh u the no?
H y xem xet m t d o thi thanh 4 g ia i doan (X e m hin h B .3 a ). D a n g

d o thi thanh truyen th o n g ny d u o c ch u y en sa n g d o thj d c tn m g nhir
sau: (1 ) an djnh m t c h c i c h o m oi g i trong bien d g i c a m t giai
doan , c h u A c h o g ia i do a n th nhat, B c h o g ia i doan th h a i, v tiep tue
nhu v y (x e m hinh B .3 b ) v sau d (2 ) s o m oi bien d g i th eo c t ben
G 1 2 3 .4 Gi 1 2 3 4
168 168 '
167 167 D
16 166 B C D
165 165 A B C D
164 164 A B C D
163 163 A B C D
162 162 A
161 161 A
160 160
159 159
Hinh BJa Hinh BJb

tri hay ct u tin

(xem hnh B.3c).
th k thut phn tch
th trng uc hon
tt s phn nh gi
bn tri v tn sut
chu k ca s xut
hin gi bn phi,
c th hin bng
ch ci A n D.
Mi ch ci (h
hin mt moi quan
h gia gi v thi
gian (Time Price Opportunity - TPO) nhn bit mt mc gi c th
m ti th tnrmg giao dch trong mt chu k thi gian c th (vi d,
trong khong tlii giarfB, gi gao ch t 163 n 166). Nhng mi
quan h gin gi v thi gian ny l n v c bn phn tch hot
ng giao dch ca ngy d. Ni cch khc, mi mi quan h gia gi
v thi gian t mt c hi uc th trng to ra ti mt thi gian no
vi mt mc gi no . S phn phi k thut phn tch th trng
ctc thit k t cc mi quan h gia gi v thi gian. Sn giao dch
Chicago (CBOT) n dnh mt ch ci cho mi na gi giao dch trong
khung thi gian 24 gi, cc ch ci in hoa t A n X i din cho mi
na gi tr gia dem cho n trua trong khi ch ci thng l t a n
X i din cho mi na gi l trua n na m.
CU TRC TH TRNG
Nu n sn giao dch trong mt ngy si ng, bn s nhn thy ci
uc gi l "s lin lon c kiin sot". ng sau ting la ht v hu
chn ma tay ca nhng nh giao dch t do a phung v cc nh
*Cc sn giao dch ricg lc khc nhau s dng ch ci khc nhau. Vi d, CQG n nh ch ci in
hoa l A cn z cho khong (hi gian t 8:00 sng CST trong khi ch ci thung t a den z duc p
dng cho khodng thi gian t 10:00 ti CST.
506 John J. Murphy
giao dch khc vn hin din mt quy trnh. Hy hnh dung th trng
l ni m nhng ngi tham gia vi nhng nhu cu gi khc nhau cng
s thc p v thi gian ang cnh tranh c th thc hin dc cng
vic kinh doanh ca bn thn. Cm xc c th tng cao khi s lo lng
tng dt bin.
Khi nim K thut phn tch th trung c Steidlmayer gii thiu

trong n lc gip m t qu trnh ny. L mt nh giao dch trn sn
Chicago (CBOT) ng thi l nhngi nghin cu hnh vi th trng,
ng quan st nhng m hnh lp i lp li ca hot ng th trung v
cui cng ly lm nn tng cho nhng kin thc v th trng. K
l khi sn giao dch chng khon Chicago (CBOT) kim sot th trng
theo hng u gi, ng d nh ngha cc nguyn l ca K thut phn
tch th trng theo thut ng u gi.
gii thch vi sao quy trinh u gi trn sn giao dch c hiu qu,
ng pht minh ra -nhng thut ng mi l lm SQ vi nh giao dch
ngoi sn. ng bt u bng vic nh ngha mc tiu ca mt th
trng - th gip cc nh u t giao dch thun tin. K tip, ng nh
ngha mt s th tc hot ng, c th l th trng hot ng trong mt
ch d u gi kp kh gi lun chuyn quanh khu vc gi hp l hoc
gi bnh qun (ngha l tuong t nh cch phn phi im ti trung
hc). Cui cng, ng nh ngha c dim hnh vi ca nhng ngui
tham gia th trung, c th l nhng ngi giao dch ngn hn mun tm
kim mc gi hp l, trong khi nhng nh giao dch di hn li tim
kim mc gi cao.
CC NGUYN TC T CHC K THUT PHN TCH

TH TRNG
Ci t ch u gi: Mc tiu ca th trng l to iu kin v
pht trin cc giao dch. Tt c cc hot ng th trng u din ra
theo ch (t u gi ny. Ban u, khi gi tng, nhiu hot ng mua
hon s xut hin v kh gi gim thi hot ng bn s nhiu hn. Th
tnrng s chuyn dch theo chiu hung tng cht hot dng mua
(ngha l u gi theo xu
hung tng ln cho n lc
ngui mua cui cng mua vo)
v dch chuyn theo chiu
hng gim d cht hot ng
bn (ngha l u gi theo
chiu hng gim cho n khi
ngui bn cui cng bn ra.)
Khi gi dch chuyn theo
chiu hng tng v xut hin
nhiu hot dng mua, s dch
chuyn ny s ku gi cc
phn ng nguc chiu (ngha
l bn) d ngng chiu hung
dch chuyn. Khi gi dch
chuyn theo chiu hung gim
th quy trnh din ra ngc li.
m phn lin tc: Khi dch

chuyn theo hng, mt th
trmgs thit lp nn cc
thng s gi<\ mt ngng cao
khng hp l v mt ngirng
thp khng hp l, ri sau
giao dch gia hai im d
thit lp vng gi hp l. Tt
c cc giao dch din ra trong quy trnh m phn ny v duy tr trong
phm vi cc thng s trn cho n khi mt bn hoc bn kia b tch ra
(ngha l khi ngng cao mi hoc thp mi hnh thnh). (Xem hnh
B.4).
Cn bng v m t cn bng th trung: Th trng c th im

cn bng hoc vn hnh theo hung cn bng gia p lc mua v bn.
to iu kin thun li cho giao dch, th trung dch chuyn t vng
508 John J. Murphy
cn bng n mt trong nhng im mt cn bng ri quay li vng cn

bng. M hnh hnh vi th trng ny xut hin trong mi khung thi
gian, t hot dng ca phin trong ngy n phin on l ri n cc
phin kt hp hot dng du gi di hn.
Khung thi gian v hnh vi nh giao dch: Khi nim v cc

khung thi gian khc nhau c trnh by gii thch nhng m hnh
hnh vi ca ngui tham gia th trng. Hot ng th trng uc chia
thnh hai giai on, ngn hn v di hn. Hot ng ngn hn l hot
ng trong khung thi gian ngy khi nh giao b buc phi thc hin
giao dch trong hm nay (v d, nh giao dch ti khon ring, cc nh
giao dch theo ngy v giao dch quyn chn n hn). Trong khong
thi gian b gii hn ny, nh giao dch ngn hn tm kim mt mc gi
hp l. Ngui mua v ngi bn ngn hn thc hin giao dch qua li
cng mt thi gian v cng mt mc gi. Hot ng di hn l nhng
khung thi gian khc (v d, nhng nh thng mi, nh giao dch dao
dng, v nhng nh giao dch v th khc ri vo nhm ny). Khng b
buc phi giao dch ngay trong ngy v c thi gian l bn ng hnh,
nhng nh giao dch ny c th tm kim mc gi cao hon. Trong qu
trnh theo ui li nhun, nhng ngi mua di hn tm kim gi thp
hn v ngi bn di hn li mong ch gi cao hn. Do s khc nhau
v mc tiu gi, ngui mua v bn di hn ni chung khng giao dch
vi nhau ti cng mt thi im v mc gi. S tung tc hnh vi gia
hai dng hot ng c khung thi gian khc nhau ny khin k thut
phn tch th trng pht trin.
Nh giao dch ngn hn v nh giao dch di hn c vai tr khc

nhau: Nh giao dch ngn hn v di hn u dng vai tr ch cht
nhng khng ging nhau nhm to iu kin thun li cho vic giao
dch . S cn bng ban u ca mt th trung (ngha l ni giao dch
t hai pha c th din ra) lun lun uc thit lp trong gi du tin
ca giao dch t ngui mua v ngi bn ngn hn (hot dng theo
khung thi gian ngy) tm kim mt mc gi hp l. a s cc hot
Phn tch k thut Ih trng ti chnh 509
hn hoc thp hon vng gi hp l ny dem li c hi thun li cho nh

giao dch di hn. Vi li th thi gian, nh giao dch di hn c th
dng hoc t chi gi vng hp l. Bng vic gia nhp th trng
vi khi lung giao dch ln, ngui mua v bn di hn c th ph
v trng thi cn bng ban u, ni rng bin gi cao hn hoc thp
hon. Nh giao dch di hn chu trch nhim cho bin ni di v
khong thi gian au gi di hn. Ni cch khc, vai tr ca nh giao
dch di hn l dch chuyn th tmng theo hng xc nh.
Gi v gi tr: S chnh lch gia gi v gi tr xc nh mt c hi

th trng. C hai loi gi: 1) loi gi uc chp nhn - c nh ngha
nh mt khu vc gi, ni th trung lun trong trng thi giao dch v
2) loi gi b t chi - c nh ngha nh mt khu vc gi, noi cc
Hnh B.5 Bng vic kt hp cc d th k thut phn tch th trng hng ngy
lin luc ( trn) thnh mt th k thut phn tch th trng lch ly ln hn
(bn d),mt bc tranh v s cn bng hoc mt cn bng di hn s hin
ra. (Xem gii thch trang 489).
510 John J. Murphy
hoat dong giao dich thircmg trong trang thi buon te. Gi tir choi duoc
coi la gi qua mire tren thi tnrcmg va duoc d|nh nghla nhu ngung cao
bat hop ly hoc ngung thp bat hop ly. Gi v gi tri l tat c nhung
khng dng nghla doi vi nh giao djeh ngan han bdi vi ho thung giao
dich vng gi horp ly. Tuy nhien, doi vi nhng nh giao djeh di han,
khi niem gi tuong duong nhu gi tri thung khng chinh xc. Gi c
the quart sat duge v c tinh khch quan trong khi gi tri lai duoc cdm
nhati v mang tinh ch quart, phu thuc vo cc nhu cu cu the ca nh
giao dich di han. Vi du, mot muc gi dinh bien d ca ngy hm nay
- mc gi hoc qu mc hoc khng hop ly - se l re doi vi nh giao
djeh di han vi ho tin rang gi ca tuan sau se cao hon. (Vi du, gi ngy
hm nay thap hon gi du don ca tuan ti.)
Nh giao dich di han phn biet gi v gi tri bang cch chap nhn
hoc tir choi gi hien tai so vi mc gi hop ly. Hy nh rng gi tng
kich thich ngui bji trong khi gi gim se kich hoat ngui mua. Khi
nh giao dich di han phn mg vi mc gi duoc thng bo, hnh vi
ny duoc mong doi v duoc xem l $u phn hoi. Mt khc, neu nh giao
dich di han hnh dng nguoc lai (vi du, mua sau khi gi tng v bn
sau khi gi gim), thi dy l hoat dng khng duoc mong doi v duoc
xem l su gia nhp. Viec phn loai hoat dng di han thnh su phn
hi v gia nhp lien quan den vng gi tri ca hm qua hoc hm nay
se tao ra bng chng mang tinh giai thoai ve su qu quyet ca nh giao
dich di han. Su qu quyet ca nh giao djeh cng cao thi kh nng anh
ta/c ta gia nhp cng ln.
PHT T R lilV B ltN B V M HINH KY THUT PHN T IC H

T H IT R U N G
Vi hoat dng thi trung khng mang tinh ty y nen khng c gi ngac
nhien khi bn thn cc m hinh gi xuat hien cng vi thi gian. Nh
giao dich nm vng ky nng c kh nng du don diroc su pht trien
ca cc m hinh nhu vay giai doan dau cng c the c kh nng tn
dung co hi. Steidlmayer xc djnh nhng m hinh pht trien bien d
hng ngy sau dy:
Phn tch k thut: ng dng trong th trng ti chnh 511
1. M t phin (ngy) thng thung (a normal day) din ra khi nh

giao dch di hn tircmg i im ng. Bin ngy uc thit lp
trong phm vi giao dch u tin (ct gi u tin) trong na ting
u phin giao dch. Nh giao dch ngn hn thit lp s cn bng
ban u, ngung cao v thp khng hp l, v sau gi lun
chuyn gia nhng thng s ny to th cn bng ngy hm d
(Xem hnh B.6: ct s 1 - nuc cam)
2. M t phin bin i thng thng (a norm al variation day)
din ra khi nh giao dch di hn tch cc v m rng bin ra
khi th cn bng ban u. Trong vi d ny, cc thng s cn bng
ban du ca nh giao dch ngn hn khng nm gi ue v y
hin din mt s bin dng theo hng v bin dng ny m rng
bin sau thit lp thng s cao nht hoc thp nht. Thng
thng, s ni rng bin ra khi th cn bng ban du c th
xut hin ti bt k im no t mt vi tch tc cho n mc gp
i th cn bng ban du. C J y l k thut phn tch ph bin
nht (Xem hnh B.6: Ct s 2 - Chi s trung bnh Dow Jones.)
3. M t phin xu hung (a trend day) din ra khi nh giao dch di
hn lin tc m rng bin . Trong v d ny, bin gia tng
hon gp di trng thi cn bng ban u, trong nh giao dch
di hn kim sot chiu hng bi th trung tip tc vic tm
kim mc gi hp l. Ti y, th trung vn ng theo mt hung
v tin st im cc (Xem hnh B.6: Ct th 3 - Yn Nht).
4. M t phin Mng khng (a neutral day) din ra khi nh giao
dch di hn m rng bin d sau th cn bng ban du theo mt
hng, sau o chiu v m rng theo hng ngc li. Phin
trung tnh chi r s bt n ca nh giao dch v din ra khi th
trung c thm d hay kim tra s tip tc hoc do chiu ca
xu hng gi (Xem hnh B.6: Ct th 4 - gia sc).
512 John J. M urphy
Bng so 1 Bng s 2 Bng so 3 Bng s 4

Nc cam Ch so trung binh Dow ng Yn Nht Gia sc
Jones Industrials
PHIN GIAO DCH PHIN XU HNG PHIN TRUNG
THNG THNG PHIN BIN DI a. Th cn bng ban TNH
a. S cn bng ban du THNG THNG du c thit lp a. Th cn bng ban
dc thit lp bi nh a. S cn hng ban du bi nh giao dch dau dc thit lp
giao dch ngn hn dc thit lp hi ngn hn trong bi nh giao dch
trong hai giai on nh giao dch ngn nhng giai on: y ngan hn trong cc
dau tin: c & D hn trong giai don: t giai on: c < D
b. Nh giao dch di hn BAC b. Nh giao dch di b. Nh giao dch di
im ng b. Nh giao dch di hn lin tc m hn ln u tin m
c. S phn phoi gi oi hn m rng hin d rng bin d rng ra rong giai
xng hoc cn bng hng xung mt c. Th trng dng ca don E
khong gan bng gan ngng ihap c. Sau d* nh giao
gp i phm vi cn theo hung dich di hn gia tng
bng ban dau gim bin d xung
trong chu k' H
Hnh B.6
THEO DIIIOT NG TH TRNG DI HN

Ngoi tr kh nng ngi bn quyn chn c li khi gi khng di,
chin lc li nhun ca a s nh giao dch i hi s dch chuyn gia
mang tnh nh hng. Nh giao dch thnh cng khi i ng hng v
thua l nu chn nhm hng giao dch. V nh giao dch di hn chu
trch nhim v vic xc nh s dch chuyn mang tinh nh hng ca
th trng nn chng ta s quan st hot ng ca h d tm kim du
vt ca mt xu hng gi. Sau khi nhn nh v nh gi hot ng di
hn, nh giao dch kt lun uc hng gi. Chng ta bt u quy trnh
bng cch nhn nh s nh hng ca nh giao dch di hn i vi
phin giao dch ca ngy hm nay v xem xt sc nh hng trong
tuong lai.
* nh hung n s pht trin bin d phin trong ngy: th k

thut phn tch th trng gip xc nh hnh vi nh giao dch di
hn trong phm vi bin hng ngy. Bng cch quan st hot ng
ca nh du tu di hn thng qua phm vi, c bit ti cc im cc,
ti phn m rng bin , v sau s kt thc ca vng gi tr, chng
ta c th nhn nh c ngi mua hay ngi bn di hn tch cc
hn v t d ai l ngi kim sot chiu hung ca th trng. Hot
ng gi ti im cc cung cp nhng ch dn r rng nht v nh
hung ca nh giao dch di hn, th hin sau bng s ni di
bin v hot ng mua v bn ti vng gi tr.
1. im cc iic hnh thnh khi nh giao dch di hn cnh tranh
vi nh giao dch ngn hn trong vic nm ly c hi ti mc gi
no d (sau d tr thnh ngng cao hoc ngng thp ca phin
d). thit lp mt dim cc, chng ta cn ti thiu hai tn hiu
giao dch n l. Nh giao dch di hn cng ho hc ti mc gi
th tn hiu giao dch cng ln v im cc tin hiu n (sin-
gle print extreme) cng di. Bt k lc no nu khng hai tn
hiu thc hin giao ch u cho thy nh giao dch di hn khng
hng th cnh tranh ti mc gi . Mt inh hoc y ca ca
sn giao dch c hnh thnh khi inh hoc y ca bin uc
xc nh ch bi mt tn hiu giao dch n l. Tnh trng ny chi
514 John J. M urphy
B&ng s 1 Bng s 2 B ng s 3
Tp on Intel C ph Ch s s& p 500.
Dim ate: M hnh toi thiu M rng bin :: Din Vng gi tr/ TPO nuta
cn c hai mi quan h gQa ra khi nhi giao dch di hoc bn:: nh gi xem
gi vi thi gian (TPO) hn ph v th cn bng ngui mua di hn hay
a. im cc bn t 77 / /32 ban u ngui bn dang kim sot
dn 775/32 a. Th cn bng ban phin hin ti trong vng
du dc th it lp gi tr
b. im cc mua t 73 31/32
dn 75 th hin s cnh trong khong thi a. Gi c tn sut toi da
tranh tm gia nh du gian: A &. B hoc gi hp t nhai ti
tu di hn v ngn hn b. Gim bin d xung J039.20
trong giai on c, H b. TPO bn l 59
v /. c. TPO mua i 00
d. S mt cn bng doi vi
bn mua hm rng gi
can tng ln na d dt
trng thi cn bng th
trng.
Hoh B.7
ra rng th trung to ra mt c hi gi m khng ai mun ginh

ly (vi d, khng c tin hiuca s cnh trnh [xem hnh B.7:
Bng s 1 - Tp on Intel].
2. S m rng bin din ra khi nh giao dch di hn ga nhp
th trng vi mt khi lc giao dch va dt th cn bng
ban u v m rng bin ln trn hoc xung di. M rng
bin ln trn tc l mua di hn hcm trong khi s m bin
xung l bn di hn. Tuy nhin, nhng trung hp khi ngui mua
v ngi bn di hn u tich cc mt im cc bin , nhung
khng cng mt mc gi v thi gian (nn luu rng thng
thung ngui mua v ngi bn khng giao dich vi nhau). V d,
nu mt im cc hnh thnh sau mt s m rng bin hng
ln, th trng truc tin vn dng tng gi cht hot dng mua
v sau d gim xung cht hot ng bn. y l trung hp
m ngui mua v ngi bn di hn giao dch ti cng mt mc
gi nhungjchc thi im, C hai loi hot ng ti im cc ny
u uc xc nh nh gi tm nh hng ca hot ng mua
v bn di hn (xem hnh B.7: Bng s 2 - C ph).
3. Vng gi tr duc xc nh trong mi phin giao dch bng s
lun chuyn gi quanh mc gi c tn sut ti a (V d: gi c
TPO ln nht hoc mc gi hp l nht). Vng gi tr uc tnh
ton bng cch m 70% im TPO ca tt c cc TPO bao
quanh mc gi hp l nht. Ni cch khc, vng gi tri l s c
lng ca gi tr hp l, xp x lch chun vi khi lng ca
phin giao dch (hy nh li v d v cc sinh vin). Khi thc hin
giao dch trong vng gi tr, mt nh giao dch di hn ang mua
gi thp hoc bn gi cao theo quan im di hn, ch khng phi
v quan im gi tr trong ngy. Hnh vi ny khin vng gi tri
trong ngy mt cn bng. Hot ng ca nh giao dch di hn
uc do lng bng vic m cc TPO. Th tc sau y c th
uc s dng xc nh bn no khng ch s mt cn bng di
hn, 1) v mt ng bng qua mc gi hp l nht, v 2) TPO
uc tnh t c hai bn ca mc gi hp l nht cho n khi xut
hin tn hiu thc hin giao dch n i. S mt cn bng nghing
v pha c s TPO nh hn bi v hot ng ca nh giao dch di
516 John J. Murphy
han eh cm ty le plian train nh hon trong tong so giao dich tai

vng gi tri. Vi du, neu so TPO 6 tren v d duoi gi hop ly nhat
lan luot la 22 v 12, thi viec ban TPO co khuynh hung la nhfmg
mc gi thp hon (Xem hinh B.7: Bang so 3 - chi so S&P S00).
Luii y rng viec mua v ban TPO trong vng gi trj khng duoc
p dung trong phien xu hung, vi thi trocmg van dang trong qua
trinh tim kiem mt vng gi hop ly.
Sau khi xc djnh v dnh gi hoat dng ca nh giao djeh di han

trong do thi ky thut phn tich thi trung ca ngy hrn nay, ngui sir
dung c the de dng xc djnh lieu ngui mua hay ngui bn di han
dang kiem so; phien giao djeh hien tai.
Tarn iih hiring ra ngoi pham vi ngy: Do thi ky thut phn tich
thi trung cng gip xc djnh hnh vi ca nh giao djeh di han
ngoi pham vj ngy hrn nay. Muc dich chinh ca nh giao djeh l
xc djnh xu hung gi t h i trung hien tai se tiep dien hay c kh
nng thay doi. Sir thay doi hung pht trien ca thj trung l su do
chieu xu hung gi hien tai. Cch tiep can ky thut chuan muc de
dnh gi xu hung m khng can ky thut phn tich thj trung l ve
mt dung xu hung thich hop v quan st dng thi gi dua treu
dung d sau d. Trir khi dung xu hung bj ph v, xu hung gi
hien tai se tiep dien. Phn tich dung xu hung l cng cu ky thut
co bn quan trong nhat, dc biet l nh tinh pho bien khp the gii
v kh nng p dung cho moi bien d thi gian ca n (vi du, hng
gi, hng ngy, hng tuan, hng thng v.v...)
Mc khc, ky thut phn tich thj trung tao ra mt cch tiep cn thay
the cho phn tich xu hung truyen thong bang cch dnh gi hoat
dng thj trung trong nhng chu ky thi gian khc nhau. Ni mt
cch dom gin nht, vec dnh gi ky thut phn tich thj trung hng
ngy c the gip xc djnh su khi dau hoc tiep dien ca xu hung
gi ngn han. Vi du, neu vng gi trj ngy hm nay cao hom ngy
hrn qua thi xu hung gi hien tai l tng. Hon na, neu vng gi trj
ngy hm nay cao hom ngy hm qua thi thj trung hien tai tiep tue
theo xu hung tng. Bng vic quan st hot ng th trung theo

dng ny, nh giao dch c th d dng xc nh c s tip din
hoc thay i ca xu hng. Tng t phcmg php kt hp th
k thut phn tch th trung hng ngy vo th k thut phn tch
th trungtich ly ln hon, bc tranh v th cn bng hoc mt cn
bng di hn s xut hin hon thin hn. K thut phn tch th
trng trong hinh B.5 (ng) trong trang 483 l minh ha c
im ny. Vic lui nhanh tng phin t 10/2 n 13/2 trong bng
trn cho thy th trung tun theo xu hung tng m khng c tn
hiu o chiu. Tuy nhin, vic kt hp 4 phin lin tip ny vi nhau
s to nn mt th cn bng tch ly. Mt khi c cn bng, mt
th trung c xu hng dch chuyn hng v trng thi mt cn bng
sau khi d kim tra ngung gi hp ] nht ln cui cng.
TM LC
Phcnig php k thut phn tch th trng c th uc sir dng phn
tch bt k loi d liu gi no c hot ng giao dch lin tc. N bao
gm chng khon, tri phiu v k phiu Chnh ph (gi v li tc),
hp dng hng ha tng lai v quyn chn c lit k hoc khng
lit k c th p dng dc. th k thut phn tch th trng th
hin s bin ng gi trong mi dn v thi gian, theo hai dng kch
thuc - chiu dc (v d bin ng c xu hung) hoc chiu ngang (v
d s tn sut thung xuyn). Khi dng thi gi uc xem xt theo cch
ny, bc tranh v s khm ph gi c m ra, iu khng th xy ra
trong mt th thanh truyn thng (theo chiu dc).
K thut phn tch th trng to ra nhng u im c nht trcn d

th thanh tiu chun:
c tinh i xng cho php nh giao dch nh gi tinh trng cn

bng hoc mt cn bng ca th trung trong bt k khung thi gian
no. Khi mt (h trung di xng, tnh trng i xng hoc im cn
bng s xut hin gia ngui bn v ngi mua. Mt s mt cn
bng th trung ng s tip din xu hng gi v th trng hng
518 John J. Murphy
v pha im cn bng mi. Tuy nhin, th cn bng th trung din

ra nhanh chng v ng s thay i ca th trung hoc mt bin
dng c nh hng (c ln v xung) c th xut hin, mt tn hiu
nh giao dch cn nhc vic p dng nhng phutmg php theo xu
hung.
Mi s thay i xu hng u din ra trong mt im thi gian no
, ch khng phi cui mt gi, mt ngy, mt tun hay thng. K
thut phn tch th trng c th duc s dng xc nh mt cch
chnh xc thi im chuyn i ca quyn kim sot t ngui mua
v ngi bn. Bng vic th hin qu trinh chuyn i quyn kim
sot, th K thut phn tch th trng cho php nh giao dch
xc nh ngung h tr v khng c chnh.
Tm li, K thut phn tch th trng cung cp lng thng tin gi

n nh trong mi dn v th trung, cho php nh giao dch nhn bit
m hinh v dng liKTvn kh c (h nhn Bit c r rng khi s dng
nhng phng php khc.
PH LC c
Cc vn c bn ca r
vic xy dng h thng

giao dch*
Vic pht trin h thng giao dch l s tng hp ca ngh thut, khoa
hc v thung thc. Mc ch ca chng ta khng phi l pht trin mt
h thng t c li nhun cao nht khi s dng d liu trong qu
kh m l trnh by tung rt thnh cng trong qu kh v k
vng s tip tc hiu qu trong tung lai.
Xt mt cch l tng, chng ta thng ua thch cch tip cn uc

vi tinh ha 100%, gia tng kh nng lp li nhng kt qu tt ca qu
kh trong tng lai. My mc c ngha l khch quan: nu 10 ngui
u tun theo cng mt quy tc v dt c cng mt kt qu, quy tc
uc xem l khch quan. H thng k thut dc th hin trn giy
hoc ng nhp vo mt chic my tnh s khng to ra ngha g.
Tuy nhin, y chng ta gi s mnh s dng mt chic my tnh

cng cc thut ng "my mc" v "vi tnh ha" thay i cho nhau. iu
ny khng c ngha l bt buc phi c my tnh trong h thng giao
dch mc d n tht s h tr rt nhiu.
*Ph lc ny do Fred G. Schutzman son tho

520 John J. Murphy
Cch tip cn my mc ny c ba u im:
Chng ta c th kim tra li cc tung trirc khi bt tay vo

giao dch. Mt chic my tnh cho php chng ta th nghim nhng
tung trn d liu trong qu kh hn l nhng ng tin kim c
mt cch cht vt. Bng cch gip chng ta thy uc cch thc th
hin trong qu kh ca mt h thng, n cho php chng ta a ra
nhng quyt nh ng n hn trong hin ti.
Chng ta c th khch quan bn v t b cm xc chi phi hn.

Phn ln chng ta u gp vn d khi ng dng vic phn tch khch
quan vo hon cnh giao dch thc t. Phn tch (ni chng ta khng
c lin bc d mo him) th d dng, cn giao dch (ni chng ta
c tin bc mo him) th cng thng hn nhiu. Chnh v th, ti
sao chng ta khng d my tnh gip mnh? N min nhim vi cm
xc con ngi v thc thi chnh xc nhng g chng ta hung dn n
khi xy dng h thng.
Chng ta c th lm nhiu vic hn, c nhiu c hi hon. Cch

tip cn bng my mc s mt t thi gian hn so vi nhng cch
tip cn mang tinh ch quan, cho php chng ta bao qut nhiu th
trng hn, giao dch nhiu h thng hn, v phn tch nhiu khung
thi gian ca tng ngy hn. iu ny c bit ng i vi nhng
ngur c kh nng s dng my tnh, v n c th lm vic nhanh
hn v lu hem chng ta m vn khng mt di s tp trung.
K HOC 5 BC
1. Hy khi u vi mt khi nim
2. Chuyn n thnh tp hp cc quy tc khch quan
3. Kim tra th bng mt
4. Kim nghim chnh thc bng my tnh
s. nh gi kt qu
BC 1: K H I u v i m t k h i n i m ( TNG)
Hy pht trin nhng tung ca ring bn thn v th trung. Bn c

th bt u bng cch xem xt cng nhiu th cng tt, c gng nhn
bit nhng ln giao nhau ca cc ng trung binh ng, chi bo dao
ng, m hnh gi hoc nhng tin hiu khch quan xut hin truc s
bin ng ca th trng chnh. Bn cnh , hy n lc nhn bit
nhng tn hiu cnh bo truc v nhng vn ng c kh nng tht bi.
Ti nghin cu nhiu m hnh th c th tim c nhng cu tr
li nh vy. Cch tip cn bng mt ny hiu qu i vi ti, v ti
khuyn khich mi ngi nn s dng phung php .
Ngoi vic nghin cu th gi v c sch chuyn ngnh, ti cng

d ngh bn nn c nhng ti liu v h thng giao dch cng nh cc
cng trnh nghin cu ca nhng ngui khc. Mc d chng ai cho bn
liu thuc cha bch bnh, nhng bn c th tm thy rt nhiu thng
tin hu dng c -sn trong cc ti liu d. iu quan trng hon l hy
ngh cho bn thn mnh. Ti pht hin ra rng nhng tng to ra
nhiu li nhun nht thng l nhng tung c truyn b rng ri
trong cng ng v l nhng ti sn ca chng ta.
a s nhng h thong giao dch thnh cng u tun theo xu hung.

Tuy nhin, khng nn b qua nhng h thng phi xu hung v chng
to ra mt mc tng quan m vi loi kia. C ngha l khi mt h
thng ang vn hnh cho vic thu li nhun th h thng cn li s gy
ra thua l, kt qu l to ra mt ung cong nhn hon th hin gi tr
ca ti khon giao dch uc th hin trn th cho c hai h thng
kt hp li hn l chi cho tng h thng ring l.
C c nguyn tc hnh th n h nhng tung t t
Cc lng lt lun to ra ngha. Nu mt tng c v hiu qu,

nhung li to ra t ngha th c th bn s b trng lp, v kh nng
hot ng hiu qu ca tung ny trong tuong lai cng s mt d.
tng ca bn phi thch hp vi tinh cch ca bn nhm to ra quy tc
522 John J. Murphy
bn tun theo ngay c khi chng khng mang li li nhun cho bn

(chng hn, trong qu trnh suy gim). tung ca bn khng uc
phc tp v phi khch quan, v nu tun theo xu hung, s giao dch
theo xu hung chinh, ko li nhun n v ct gim thua l. iu quan
trng nht l tng ca bn phi to ra li nhun trong di hn (vi d,
k vng dnh cho n phi l tch cc).
Vic phc ha im gia nhp thi kh, nhung phc ha im thot ra

cn kh hn v quan trng hn. Lp lun gia nhp thi n gin, nhng
vic thot ra th phi tnh ton cc kh nng khc nhau, chng hn nh
tc ct l hoc phi lm g vi li nhun tch ly. Ti vn thch cc
h thng khng o chiu t ng hn - ti thch thot ra khi giao dch
trc, sau bt u mt giao dch khc theo hng ngc li. Hy lm
vic tch cc ci thin cc buc thot khi giao dch, v li nhun
ca bn s c ci thin trong mi tng quan vi ri ro.
'Mt khuyn ngh khc l hy c gng ti u ha cng it cng tt.

Vic ti uu ha cc d liu qu kh thng dn n vic k vng vo
con s li nhun mt cch phi thc t -li nhun khng th uc nhn
bn trong giao dch thc t. Hy c gng s dng mt t thng s v p
dng cng mt k thut trong nhiu th trng khc nhau. iu ny s
ci thin c hi thnh cng trong di hn thng qua vic gim thiu
nhng cm by ca vic ti u ha qu mc.
C ba loi h thng giao dch chnh:
Tun theo xu hng. Nhng h thng ny giao dch nm trong

chiu hng ca xu hng chnh, mua sau khi chm y v bn sau
khi chm inh. ung trung bnh di ng v quy tc tun ca
Donchian l nhng phng php thng dng dnh cho cc nh qun
l ti sn.
* Phi xu hung:
- Ngung h tr/khng c. Mua khi gi ri xung ngng h tr

bn khi hi phc ln ngung khng c.
- Thoi li. Chng ta mua vo khi gi rt trong th trirng u c

gi ln v bn ra kh gi hi phc trong th trng du co gi
xung. Vi d, ta mua im thoi li 50% t tng gi gn nht,
nhung chi khi xu hng chinh vn tng. Nhng h thng nh vy
ri ro ch bn s khng bao gi bit uc dt mc thoi li l
bao nhiu v $ kh khn d ng dng k thut thot ra khi giao
dch c th chp nhn.
- Cc chi bo dao ng. Mua khi chi bo dao ng th hin bn qu

mc v bn khi chi bo dao ng th hin mua qu mc. Nu s
phn k gia gi v chi bo dao ng cng xut hin th tin hiu
mnh hn s uc ua ra. Tuy nhin, tt nht l nn ch i mt
tn hiu o chiu gi no d trc khi bn hoc mua.
S tha nhn m hnh (trc quan v thng k). Vi d m hnh u

v vai dng tin cy (trc quan), v m hnh gi theo ma (thng k).
BC 2: C N T N G thnh m t t p h p quy
TC KHCH QUAN
y l bc kh khn nht trong k hoch 5 bc, v kh khn hn rt

nhiu so vi nhng g chng ta ngh! hon tt buc ny, ta nn trnh
by tng ca minh mt cch khch quan sao cho nhng ai tun theo
qu tc ny ca chng ta u c th dua ra kt lun tucmg t.
Hy xc nh mc tiu ca h thng cng nh cch thc n thc

hin. Vi buc ny, chng ta c uc nhng chi tit cn thit thc
hin cc nhim v lp trnh. Chng ta cn nm uc vn chung v
phn n thnh cng nhiu chi tit cho n khi tt c cc chi tit c
hon tt.
BC 3: K IM TRA TRC QUAN TRN TH
Khi tun theo nhng quy tc dt khot m chng ta xc nh trong

buc 2, chng ta s kim tra trc quan nhng tn hiu giao dch c
to ra trn th gi. y l mt quy trnh khng chinh thc, nhm t
c hai kt qu: th nht, chng ta s nhn bit liu tng ca mnh
524 John J. Murphy
C c trnh by thch hp hay khng; v th hai, trc khi th hin

nhng m my tinh phc tp, chng ta cn nim rng tung ny s
c kh nng sinh li.
BC 4: KIM NGHIM CHNH THC BNG m y t n h
By gi l lc chng ta chuyn i lp lun ca minh thnh mt m cho

my tnh. i vi cng trnh nghin cu ca minh, ti s dng mt
chuong trnh gi l TradeStation (Omega Research, Inc. Miami,
Florida). TradeStation l gi phn mm phn tch k thut ton din c
th xc lp cng thc v kim tra h thng giao dch. N kt ni tt c
mi th bng vic trc quan ha tng ca bn, h tr vic giao dch
h thng ca bn trong thi gian thc.
Vic vit mt m bng bt k mt loi ngn ng my tnh no cng

khng th l nhim v d dng v EasyLanguage ca TradeStation
khng l ngoi T.Ty nhin, cng vic vi EasyLanguage c th uc
n gin ha nh chc nng thn thin vi ngi s dng v bao gm
nhiu hm ci sn cng rt nhiu m v d. Xem hnh c.l
Khi clnrcmg trnh c vit, chng ta s chuyn sang giai on

kim nghim. bt du, chng ta phi chn mt hoc nhiu d liu
tin hnh kim tra. Vi nh giao dch chng khon thi vic ny
khng my kh khn. Tuy nhin, nh giao dch tng lai s phi di
mt vi nhng hp ng s dn hn sau mt khong thi gian tuong i
ngn. Ti thch thc hin nhng chung trnh kim nghim sng to vi
vic s dng mt lot gi tip din (chiu rng dc diu chnh) ca
Jack Schwager. (Schwager on Futures: Technical Analysis, Wiley,
996). Nu nhng kt qu ny c v ha hn, ti s chuyn sang thc
hnh vi cc hp ng thc.
Tip theo, chng ta phi quyt nh lurng d liu uc s dng

xy dng h thng. Ti s dng ton b d liu gi m khng cn gi
li bt c phn no kim nghim thc t ( xy dng h thng ca bn
trn mt phn d liu v kim nghim chng trn d liu n). Nhiu
P hn tch k th u t th tr n g ti chnh
//fileName: l|M8ook.Four%Modd
//Written by Fred C. Schutzman, CMT
//Logic by Ned Davis
//see Zweig bootc Martin Zweig's Winning with New IRAs, pages 117-128
//Model was designed to be applied to a weekly chart of the value Line Composite Index
(VLCI)
//Program uses the weekly (usually Friday) dose of the VLCt to initiate trades
//buy If the weekly dose of the VLCI rises 4% or more from its lowest dose (since the last
sefl signal)
//seH if the weekly dose of the VLO falls 4% or more from its highest dose (since the last
buy signal)
//Date last changed: February 8,1998
System Properties********
Properties tab:
Pyramid Settings Do not allow multiple entries in same direction
Entry Settings default values
Max number of bars system will reference 1
Inputs: per0fflo(4.00), { percent off lowest dose)

perOffHK4.00); { percent off highest dose)
Variables: LC(0), (fewest dose)
H<m { highest dose)
trend(0); {0 * no trades yet *1 - up, -1 down)
( Initialize variables >
If currentBar 1 then begin
1C cke; --------------
HC-dose;
trend 0;
end;
{ update trend variable and place trading orders}
if trend 0 then begin
if ((dose-LC) / LQ > (perOffLo /1 0 0 ) then trend * *1;
if ((HC-dose) / H Q > (perOffHi / 100) then trend * 1;
end
else if trend * >1 and ((HC-dose) / HC) > (perOffHt /10 0) then begin
seH on dose;
trend -1 ;
LC - dose;
end
else if trend - -1 and ((dose*LC) / LC) > - (perOffLo / 100) then begin
buy on dose;
trend
HC dose;
end;
{ update LC fit HC variables}
If dose < LC then LC dose;
If dose > HC then HC = dose;
( End of Code)
Hnh c .l (M EasyLanguage): M ty c vit thng qua cch s dng

TradeStation's Power Editor u. N c giao dn - v sc mnh - ca mt ngn
ng lp trnh pht trin. Xem hnh C.2 v C.3 thy v d trn h thong tun
theo xu hiing c m t bi Martin Zeig.
526 John J. M urphy
chuyen gia khng tan dng cch tiep can ny, nhung ti tin ring do l
cch tot nht cho phuong php luan ca ti - phuong php duoc dua
tren cc khi niem dang tin cy m gan nhu khng can ti uu ha, v
mt th tue kiem nghiem bao gom mt pham vi rong cc thng so v
thi truong Ion. Ti b it du veri mt phuong php m minh tin rng c
co so v sau do kiem nghiem n de chng minh hoc bc b gi thuyet
ca bn thn. Ti nhn ra ring da so nh du tu c nhn deu thuc hien
dieu nguoc lai vi viec kiem tra du lieu truc de c duoc mt he thong
giao dich.
Ti khng tinh ton chi phi giao dich [phi chenh lech (gia giao
dich thuc v uc tinh) v phi hoa hong] khi kiem nghiemcc he thong,
nhung thay vo d lai dua n vo phn cuoi. Ti tin viec ny se gi cho
qu trinh dnh gi khch quan hon v cho phep ket qu tr nen hu ich
hon neu su gi djnh thay di trong tuong lai.
Ti yeu cu he thng ca minh van hnh theo:
Cc tp hop thng so khc nhau. Neu dang cn nhac viec s dung

mt he thong giao nhau ca dung trung binh di dng 5/20, ti se
ky vong rng dung 6/18, 6/23 v 5/19 cng the hien tot. Neu
khng, ti se lp tue ngo vue ket qu ca dung 5/20.
HinhC.l:(M EasyLanguage): m ny duoc viet thng qua cch sut

dung TradeStations Power EditorTM. N c giao dien - v sc manh
- ca mt ngn ng lp trinh pht trien. Xem hinh C.2 v C.3 de thay
vi du tren he thong tun theo xu huong duoc m t beri Martin Zeig.
Cc chu ky thiri gian khc nhau (vi du: 1990-1995 v 1981-1986).

Mot he thong kiem tra tot dong Yen Nht trong giai doan 5 nm gn
nht cng c the kiem tra nhng khong theri gian 5 nm khc. Dy
l mot ITnh vue khc m ti giu quan diem ca thieu so.
Nhieu thi truim g khc nhau. Mt he thong hoat dng hieu qu

trong thi trung du th cung c the hieu qu trong thi trung du
truyen nhiet v xng trong cng mt khong thi gian. Neu khng,
ti se tim kiem nguyen nhn v khng s dung he thong ny na.
Tuy nhien, ti di su hon na v se kiem nghiem cng mt he thong
trn ton b d s liu ca cc th trng vi mong irng phn

ln chng s hot ng tt.
Mt khi vic kim nghim hon tt, chng ta s thm nh li bng

mt nhng tn hiu giao dch trn th gi c to ra t my tnh
m bo rng h thng d thc hin nhng gi m chng ta mong mun.
TradeStation gip quy trinh ny hot ng d dng bng cch t mi
tn bn v mua ngay trn th. Neu h thng khng thc hin duc
nhng g nhu k vng, chng ta cn chinh sa nhng m cn thit v
kim tra ln na. Hy nh k rng c rt t tng thc s to ra li
nhun, thng l dui 5%. V, mt l do khc na l a s cc tung
thnh cng khng uc giao dch thc t.
BUC 5: NH GI K T QU
Hy c gng nm bt dc tung n sau h thng giao dch ca chng

ta. N c ngha khng-hay- l~bi trng lp? Hy phn tch ung cong
th hin gi tr ca ti khon giao dch trn th. Liu chng ta c tn
ti c qua khi t khng hong khng? Hy nh gi h thng trn
c s tng giao dch. iu g xy ra nu c tn hiu xu? H thng thot
khi nhng v th thua l nhanh n mc no? Chng s c duy tri
vi nhng k thng cuc trong bao lu? Chc chn Hy m bo rng
chng ta hon ton thoi mi vi kt qu kim nghim, nu khng
chng ta s khng c kh nng giao dch h thng trong th trng thc.
Ba thng k TradeStation chinh dng phn tich l:
* Chi s li nhun Cng thc uc tnh bng ti l phn trm gia li

nhun gp v l gp. Thng k ny cho ta bit h thong s to ra
bao nhiu -la li nhun trn 1 -la thua l, v y cng l mt
cng c do lng ri ro. Nh giao dch di hn c th nhm n chi
sli nhun l 2.00 hoc cao hn. Nh giao dch ngn hn chp nhn
con s thp hn.
Giao dch bnh qun (li v l). y l k vng ton hc ca h
thng. t nht n phi cao trang tri chi ph giao dch (ph
chnh lch v ph hoa hng), nu khng chng ta s thua l .
528 John J. Murphy
Gim siit gi trj ti khon toi da trong ngn han. Dy l pham vi

sut gim Ion nht tu mt dinh von den mt dy von lien quan den
dong d-la. Toi thich thuc hien phcp tinh ton ny tren co so phan
trm. Toi cung phan biet gia sir gim st gi trj ti khon tu diem
xuat pht (noi toi mat tien ti) so vi su sut gim von tu mt dinh
v6n (noi ti thu hoi loi nhun tu thj trucmg). Thng thircmg, ti
khng qu khl khc vi trucmg hop sau.
QUN T R I TI SAN
Qun trj ti sn khng thuc ch de ca phu lue ny, nhung l mt van

de cuc ky quan trong. Do l mau chot doi vi viec giao djeh thnh cng,
moi mt don vi thng tin deu dng vai tr quan trong nhu mt he thong
giao djeh tot.
K.y thut qun trj ti sn phi duoc tr tinh can than. Hy chap nhn
su that rng thu ajo l mt phnjiien nhien cua moi cuc choi. Hy
kiem sot sir thua Io v loi nhun se bo dm cho chinh ban.
Trong ITnh vue ny, hy thuc hnh viec da dang ha cng nhieu cng
tt. Sir da dang hoa se gip ban gia tng loi nhun trong khi giCr ri ro
a mc co djnh, hoc gim thieu ri ro trong khi gi cho loi nhun
mc. Hy da dang cc loai thj triremg, he thong, thng s v khung thi
gian.
TM LUQC
Cluing ta da tho lun ve trict ly co bn ca he thong v tai sao khch

quan lai tt hon ch quan. Chng ta da nhc den ba loi ich chinh ca
plun/ng php may tinh ha v thiet lp ke hoach 5 bude de xy dung
mt hc thong giao djeh. V cui cng, chng ta da de cp den tarn quan
trong ca qun trj ti sn v da dang ha.
He thong giao djeh c the ci thien ket qu ca ban v gip ban trd
thnh mt nh giao djeh hon ho. Ly do rat r rng l:
Chng khien ban phi thuc tp truoc khi bude vo giao djeh thuc
Chng c quy tc nn bn d dng tun theo
# Chng c kh nng gip bn gia tng mc a dng ha
Vi s chm ch v tm huyt ai cng c th xy dng mt h thng

giao dch thnh cng, v iu ny mc d khng d dng nhng vn
nm trong tm tay. Cng nh phn n mi th trn i ny, chng ta
trng cy t s n ngy hi qu. (Xem hnh C.2 v C.3)
Hnh C.2 ( th gi). H thng giao dch c thit k c p dng vo

th hng tun ca ch s Value Line Compositr (VLC), nhng cng c th
c kim nghim rat tot trn th hng ngy ca VLCI v c trn th hng
tun v hng ngy trong cc th trng khc, th hin nim tin vo tng c
bn ny. y l h thong c m t trong hnh C.J
530 John J. Murphy
pJMeSklFoSuSderoSRneGeSScTBB^SôSSSi^Be
Performance Stmmwy. ASTrades
Tot* neeprofit $ 7184)1 Open position PA. $ 0.00
Bross profil t 1118.15 Gross loss t -400.14
Total * of trades 137 Percent profitable 48*

Number winning trades 67 Number losing trades 70
LargestvtaninQ trade $ 7806 Largest losing trade $ -15.85

tong winning trade $ 18.08 Average lostfig trade s -6.72
Raoo jr/g *4n/avg toss 2M2 Awgtrwfcfwin & loss) s 5.24
Mm e o n t c . winners 7 Max coroec. losers 5

tvg # bars n winners 21 Avy # baft m losers 7
tax intraday drawdown.. s -45.01

ta ft factor 2.79 Max # contracts beW 1
Account s ilt required $ 4501 Return on account <505%
Hnh C.3 (Tm tt hiu qu hot ng): y l bng tm tt biu hin trong
36 nm ca h thng trn hnh CA v C.2. biu hin trong 2 nm cui cng
thng nht vi kiq chung. Ch so Li nKun, giao dch bnh qun (li v
S) v s suy gim ti khon giao dch cc i trong ngtt hn u hon ho.
PH LC D
Cc hp rng tng lai

din*
Vi mt c s d liu th r rng v th trung hng ha, ta c th

lum lt e-nhiu dang hp ng Tihir Hp ng gn nht, Hp ng
k tip, Hp ng Gann, v Hp ng tip din. Ngoi ra cn c nhng
tung xy dng cc hp ng tung lai phi sinh ny. Cc biu tung
c s dng chi minh ha cho mc ch ny. Nhng hp ng tip
din ny c to ra thng qua Dial Data Service (56 Pine Street, New
York, NY 10005, [212] 422-1600).
HP NG GN NHT
Hp ng tng lai ch yu uc cc nh giao dch s dng - nhng

ngui mun c mt lng ln h s v d liu lin tc uc thu thp
t gi giao dch thc. H bng lng vi nhng d liu sp ht hn v
sau quay vng theo kiu t ng.
Dng nh hp ng gn nht khng c giao dch trong phm vi

15 n 30 ngy mn hn. L do l vic thanh l din ra gn gng nhanh
chng vo nhng ngy sau cng ca hp ng, s ngy truc khi n
hn m mt hp dng ring l chuyn hn sang mt hp ng k tip
Ph lc ny uc bin son bi Greg Morris.

532 John J. Murphy
l mot chc nng ca hng ha dircrc dua vo giao dich (so thng cho
den hop dong tiep theo), v l phong cch giao dich ca cd nhn. Ta
hon ton c the hinh dung duoc mt hop dong rieng le se tu chuyen
han tai nhng then diem khc nhau doi voi nhng hng hoa khc nhau
mt cch tuyet voi nhu the no.
Thcri diem chuyen han sang mt hop dong khc c kh nng phu
thuc vo khoi luong giao djeh hop dong hien tai nhieu hon. Khi bit
dau den diem ket thc cng l lc hop dong chuy&i han.
Chinh vi the, mt nguoi c the lira chon thi diem chuyen han Hop
dong gan nhat ca minh. Hy nh ring, hop dong tuong lai duoc dung
len tu du lieu thuc. Dy l mt so vi du: Nh qun ly danh muc A sn
sng chuyen han tai thi diem den han, vt the tat c nhng gi anh ta
muon l hop d6ng gan nhat dat chuan voi ky hieu TRNEOO (Tri
phieu Chinh ph). Nh qun ly A c the qun ly tien v can tinh ton
so von tu nhng dir lieu ny. Nh giao dich 6 cm thay giao djeh trong
thng den han khng d do on dinh, vi the anh ta muon hop dong gan
nhat ca minh se chuyen han 15 ngy truc ngy den han - ky hieu c
the l TRNE15. Nh phn tich C mong muon kiem tra cc ngy chuyen
han khc nhau, vi the anh ta c the muon tai nhieu dang hop dong gn
nhat nhu: TRNEOO, TRN05, TRNE12, v TRNE21 (chuyen han 5, 12
v 21 ngy truc khi den han).
Hy lim y ring tat c nhng hop dong ny deu l Hop dong Gin nhat
v cha cc d lieu hop dong thuc te. Sur khc biet duy nhat l nguon
d lieu ca hop dong ny.
HQPDNG K T l P
Hop dong Ke tiep l hau bi ca hop dong gan nhat. Ni mt cch
chinh xc thi n cng tuong tu nhu Hop dong Gan nhat ngoai trur viec
n lun l hop dong theo sau Hop dong Gin nhat. Ni cch khc, n$u
Hop dong Gan nhat s dung d lieu Tri phieu Chinh ph (TR) thng
12, thi Hop dng Ke tiep sur dung d lieu tu hop dong TR thng 3. Khi
hp ng thng 12 n hn, Hp ng Gn nht chuyn sang thng 3

v Hp ng K tip chuyn sang hp ng thng 6. N uc nh
ngha l hp ng k tip 1.
T khi nim ny, mt Hp dng K tip khc cng c sn v uc

gi l Hp ng K tip-2. D liu ca n lun bt ngun t hp dng
cch xa Hp ng Gn nht 2 hp dng. Vi vi d nh trn, nu Hp
dng Gn nht s dng d liu t hp dng thng 12 thi Hp ng K
tip-2 s dng d liu t hp dng thng 6. Khi hp ng thng 12 dn
hn th Hp dng Gn nht bt u s dng d liu t hp ng thng
3 v Hp ng K tip 2 s dng d liu ca hp dng thng 12 v mi
vic c th tip tc.
V d v k hiu ca hp dng gn nht l: TRNX11 v TRNX12.

D nhin, k hiu ca hp ng tung lai thc s uc s dng thay v
TR trong v d ny.
HP NG GANN
Hp ng Gann m ch vic s dng thng hp ng c th v chuyn

hn sang cng mt hp ng d trong nm sau. V d, hp ng la m
Thng 7 s c s dng cho n khi hp ng thng 7 n hn, sau
d hp dng Gann s bt u s dng d liu t hp ng la m thng
7 ca nm sau.
V d, k hiu ca hp ng Gann l: W07GN, GC04GN, JY12GN,

v.v... (nh la m thng 7, vng thng 4, ng Yn thng 12).
HP NG TIP DIN
Hp ng Tip din uc pht trin gip nh phn tch gii quyt

vn thanh l hon ton v khong cch tng (hoc gim) trong d
liu tng lai. iu ny s tr thnh vn d bt k lc no nh phn tch
dang kim tra ch d hoc h thng giao dch ca d liu din ra trong
nhiu nm. N bao gm chui d liu lin tc uc b p bng s
chuyn hn ca xu hng gi.
534 John J. Murphy
HP NG LIN TC T l P D l N
Mt Hp ng Lin tc Tip din ko di lin tc n tuong lai. N s

dng nhiu hn mt hp ng thc hin vic ny. Mt phng php
ph bin l s dng hai hp ong gn nht v lm mt php ngoi suy
tuyn tinh d liu. (Xem hnh D .l).
Mt nh giao dch tuong lai (vi Hp ng Gn nht) c kh nng

xy dng Hp ng Lin tc Tip din ca bn thn mnh, c n phi c$
ba yu t c th thc hin c vic ny: Biu tung hng ha, s
lng hp ng anh ta mun c s dng trong vic tnh tori, s tun
n thi im no ca hp ng tng lai m anh ta tim kim. V
d, nu anh ta mun Tri phiu Chinh ph vi vic s dng ba trong s
nhng hp ng gn nht, v tm kim loi 14 tun, k hiu c th l
TRCF314. TR l k hiu, CF l tip din (Continuous Forward
Looking), 3 l s hp ng uc s dng, 13 l s tun m gi uc d
on.
Hnh D.l Mt kiu trnh by trc quan v hp ng tip din

Trnh t kh n gin. u tin, ta cn thit lp mt ngy chuyn

hn c nh cho mi loi hng ha. Thi hn hon ho nht i 10 ngy
trc khi n hn. iu quan trng l c mt khong thi gian chuyn
hn no trc ngy n hn thc s. Th hai, s lung hp ng
uc s dng khng bao gi nh hcm 2 v c th khng bao gi nhiu
hom 4. S tun uc s dng cng c th lun lun ln hn 3 v c th
cao n 40 trong mt s trng hp.
V d: y l phng php uc s dng bi Commodity Systems,

Inc. (Xem phn Hp ng vnh vin trong Chung 8).
Ta li s dng Tri phiu Chnh ph mt ln na, v chng c chu

k n hn ging nhau c mi 3 tun. Gi s rng mt nh giao dch
mun mt hp ng Tri phiu Chnh ph lin tc vi vic s dng hai
thng gn nht v tm kim khong thi gian n hn l 12 tun (k
hiu = TRCF212). Gi s hm nay l ngy 1 thng 12. Vic m t bng
d th gip ta d hiu hn (Xem hnh D.l). Trc ng l gi v trc
ngang l thi gian. Hm nay uc nh du trn trc ngang v ngy n
hn ca hai hp dng gn nht (thng 12 v thng 3) cng uc nh
du. Anh ta mun tm kim hp ng cn 12 tun n hn nn dnh
du 12 tun k t hm nay, tc l khong vo ngy 25 thng 2. Gi dng
ca hp ng thng 12 l 88.25 v ca thng 3 l 87.75. Nhng im
ny s c t bn trn ngy n hn ti mc gi tng ng. Sau d,
mt ung ngoi suy tuyn tnh c v gia hai im. dc ca
ng ny s thay i ln xung ty vo vin cnh di hn ca li sut
(ca tri phiu trong v d ny). Trong v d c th ny, vin cnh li
sut s tng vi gi tng lai thp hon gi thng 12.
tm duc gi ng ca ngy hm nay ca TRCF212, ta tm im

trn trc dc 12 tun k t hm nay (25 thng 2) v vt ln trn ung
k c v trn th. Sau , t ung ny ta hng v pha phi v
d l gi ng ca ca hp ng Lin tc Tip din (khong 87.91).
Bn cng c th nhn thy rng hp dng Thng 3 c ngha quan
trng hom hp ng thng 12 bi v kt thc gn thng 3 hn. Phng
php ny c th c thc hin t gi m ca, cao nht, thp nht v
536 John J. Murphy
dng ca tuong tu. DT nhien l mt mdy tinh co the thuc hien cong viec
ny theo cng thuc ton hoc, o day toi chi l dien gii cch thc de the
hien mt Hop dong VTnh vien tren do thi.
nh ngha
ng tng gim: Mt trong nhng ch bo uc s dng rng ri nht

dng o lung ca mc tng hoc gim ca mt chi s rng th
trng chng khon ( rng th trung l thng s o lng chiu
hng ca th trng chung bng cch phn tch s c phiu tng so vi
s c phiu gim). Mi ngy (hay tun) s hp ng tng uc so snh
vi s hp ong gfm. nu so hp ng tng chim u th hon hp
ng gim, tng rng uc cng vo tng tch ly truc . Neu s hp
ng gim c uu th, tng tch ly tr cho chnh lch rng. ung tng
gim thng c so snh vi ch s trung bnh chng khon ph bin
nh Dow Jones Industrial Average. Chng c th cng xu hng. Khi
ng tng gim bt u phn k so vi chi so trung bnh chng khon,
mt tin hiu sm do chiu c th xy ra.
Chi s Arms: uc pht trin bi Richard Arms, chi bo i lp ny

l t sut ca khi lng bnh qun c phiu gim chia cho khi lung
bnh qun chng khon tng. Chi s thp hn 1.0 cho thy s c phiu
tng nhiu hn. Mt chi s cao hem 1.0 phn nh s c phiu gim
nhiu hn. ung trung bnh di ng 10 ngy ca chi s Arms cao hn
] .20 l bn qu mc, cn thp hn 0.70 l mua qu mc.
Tam gic tng: Mt m hnh gi i ngang gia hai ung xu hng

hi t, ni dng bn di dang tng trong khi ung bn trn li
phng. Nhn chung, y l mt m hnh tng gi. (Xem hnh tam gic).
538 John J. Murphy
th thanh: Trn th thanh, mi thanh th hin hot ng gi

ca mt ngy. Thanh dng c v t mc gi cao nht trong ngy n
gi thp nht trong ngy (gi l bin ). Gch ngang bn tri thanh
nh du gi m ca, trong khi gch ngang bn phi thanh l gi ng
ca. th thanh c th c dng cho bt k qung thi gian no, c
hng thng, hng tun, hng gi v hng pht.
Di Bollinger: c pht trin bi John Bollinger, chi bo ny s

dng cc di bng giao dch c lch chun bn trn v bn di
ng trung bnh di ng 20 ngy. Gi thng gp ngng khng c
ng bng trn v ngng h tr ng bng di.
Vng trong chy trn: Vng trng gi hinh thnh ti im kt thc

m hnh gi quan trng. Vng trong chy trn thung bo hiu s khi
u mt vn ng gi quan trng. (Xem phn Nhng vng trng)
irng kcnh gi: ng thng, c v song song vi ung xu

hng. Trong mt xu hng tng, ng knh gi hng ln bn phi
v uc v trn nhng nh hi phc; trong mt xu hung gim, ng
knh gi duc v bn dui cc y v hung xung bn phi gi s
thng gp ngng khng c ti ung knh dang tng v ngung h
tr ti ng knh gim.
S xc nhn: L vic cng nhiu yu t th tning tng ng vi

mt mt yu t khc cng tt. V d, nu gi v khi lung giao dch
cng tng, khi lung giao dch s xc nhn ng thi gi. i lp ca
s xc nhn l s phn k.
M hnh tip din: M hnh gi ny ch ra mt s tm ngng hoc

cng co xu hung ph bin. Dng ph bin nht l tam gic, c hoc
c ui nheo.
Tam gic gim: L mt m hnh gi di ngang gia hai ung xu

hng hi t, trong ung bn trn ang gim v ung bn dui
nm ngang. Thng thng, n l mt m hnh gim gi. (Xem phn
Tam gic)
S p h n k: L mt tnh hung trong hai chi bo khng xc nhn

ln nhau. V d, trong phn tch chi bo dao ng, xu hng gi l tng
trong khi mt chi bo dao dng bt u gim . S phn k thung bo
hiu mt s o chiu xu hng. (X em S x c nh n )
Hai inh: L m hnh gi th hin hai inh ni bt. S o chiu kt

thc khi y gia b ph v. Hai y l phin bn o nghch ca hai
dinh.
u n g xu hirng gim : Mt ung thng uc v hng xung

sang phi bn trn cch inh hi phc lin tip. M t s ph v ung
xu hung gim thng bo hiu s o chiu ca xu hung gim. (X em
phn ng x u hng.)
L th u yt Dow: L nt trong nhng l thuyt phn tch k thut lu

i nht v c nh gi cao nht. Theo l thuyt ny, mt tin hiu
mua s xut hin khi D ow Industrial v D ow Transport dng ca cao
hn mt inh hi phc trc . M t tn hiu bn uc nhn bit khi
c hai chi s bnh qun ny ng ca thp hn m t ngng thp tng
ng trc .
Phn tch sng E lliott: L mt cch tip cn phn tch k thut da

trn m hnh sng lp li v chui s Fibonacci. M t m hnh sng
Elliott l tung c 5 sng tng theo sau l 3 sng gim . (X em phn
C hui s F ibonacci).
ng bao vy: L nhng dung nm trn v di mt ng trung

bnh di ng theo m t t l phn trm c nh. ng bao vy gip xc
nh khi no mt th trng di chuyn qu xa iing trung binh di ng
ca n v uc xem l ni di qu mc.
V ng trn g su y yu: M t vng trng gi xut hin vo cui mt xu

hng quan trng, v bo hiu rng xu hung sp kt thc. (X em phn
Vng trng.)
Mut th eo hm m: Mt irng trung bnh di ng s dng tt c cc

im d liu, nhng t d liu gi gn hn mc d quan trng cao hon.
540 John J. Murphy
Day so Fibonacci: Chuoi so Fibonacci

(1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144...)duoc dung bngcch cong hai so dau
tien de co so th ba. Ty so cua bat ky so no vi so ln hon ke tip deu
bng 62%, cung chinh l mc thoi li pho bien theo so Fibonacci. Do
nghich ca 62% la 38%, cung duoc s dung nhu mot so thoi li
Fibonacci. Ty so ca bat ky mt so no vai so nh6 hon ke tiep cng
bng 1,62%, von duoc su dung de dat muc tieu gi Fibonacci. (Xem
phan Phan tich song Elliott).
Cir. Mo hinh gi tidp dien, thng thuorng dien ra trong ba tuan, giong
vdi mot hinh binh hnh tao mot gc tuong phn vai dung xu huong
hien tai. Cd the hien mt su tarn ngung nh trong mot xu huong gi si
noi. (Xem phan Ca dttoi nheo.)
Phn tich co bn: Tri vai phn tich ky thuat, phn tich co ban dua
tren thng tin cung cau ca nen kinh te, ch khng phai hoat dong thj
tmcmg.
Vng trong: Vng trong l khong cch ve ben tri tren do thi
thanh, noikhong c giao dich dien ra. Mot vng trong tng duoc hinh
thnh khi gi thap nhat ca mt phien giao dich lai cao hem ngircmg cao
nhat ca phien trudc do. Mt vng trong gim duoc hinh thnh khi gi
cao nht ca mt phien thap hon mc gi thp nhat ca phien hm
truc. Mt vng trong tng thung l tin hieu sc manh thi trumg,
trong khi mt vng trong gim l tin hieu cho thay su suy yeu ca thi
trurdng. Ba dang vng trong l chay tr6n, do lung v suy yeu.
D iu v vai: L m hinh do chieu pho bien nhat. Khi thi trung dat
dinh, ba dinh noi bat hinh thnh vi dinh gia (hay diu) hoi cao hon
hai dinh kia (vai). Khi dung xu hung (dung vien cd) noi cc dy
gia bi ph v, m hinh ket thc. Mot m hinh dy l phien bn do
nguoc ca mt m hinh dinh v duoc goi l dau v vai do chieu.
Phn tich lien thj trirfmg: L mt khia canh bo sung ca phn tich
thj trung vi viec xem xet dng thi gi ca cc ltnh vue thj trung c
mi quan h tng quan vi nhau. Bn lnh vc l tin t, hng ha,

tri phiu v chng khon, trong d bao gm c th trng quc t.
Cch tip cn ny da trn tin l tt c cc th trng u c quan
h vi nhau v tc dng ln nhau.
o chiu cm do: Mt s kt hp ca mt vng trng suy yu

theo mt hung v mt vng trng chy tron ca mt hung khc trong
vng mt vi ngy. V d, ti giai on cui ca mt xu hng c s
hin din ca, vng trng gi hung ln v sau hung xung chi
trong vi ngy. Kt qu l hai hoc ba ngy giao dch tch bit gia hai
vng trng theo hai hng khc nhau. o chiu cm o thung bo
hiu s o chiu xu hng. (Xem phn Vng trng gi.)
Phin o chieu chnh: Trong mt xu hng tng, m hnh mt

phin nh vy xut hin khi gi m ca t ngng cao mi, v sau
ng ca thp hn gi ng ca phin truc . Trong mt xu hng
gim, gi m ca Ihl thp hon r li ng ca cao hon. bin gi ca
phin o chiu chinh cng rng v khi lung giao dch cng ln, th
kh nng o chiu cng cao. (Xem phn o chiu hng tun).
th dng ng k: L d th gi ni cc mc gi dng ca ca
mt th trng no trong mt qung thi gian no . Kt qu l
chng ta c mt ung ln sng. Dng d th ny hu ich nht l khi
uc s dng trong th chng ln nhau (mc ch so snh) hay
th $0 snh thng dc dng trong phn tch lin th trng. N cng
c s dng trong phn tch xu hung trc quan cc qu h tng m.
MACD: c pht trin bi Gerald Appel, l h thng ung trung

binh hi t phn k hai ung. ng th nht (MACD) l s chnh
lch gia hai ung trung bnh s m gi ng ca (thng l 12 v
26 giai on). ng th hai (tn hiu) thng l ng EMA 9 giai
on ca ng th nht (MACD). Tn hiu c cho khi hai ung
ny t nhau.
th tn sut MACD: L mt bin th ca h thng MACD v

chnh lch gia hai ng tn hiu v ung MACD. S thay i ca
542 John J. Murphy
chnh lch d c th uc dng nhanh hn, dn n nhng tn hiu

giao dch sm.
Chi bo dao dng McClellan: c pht trin bi Sherman

McClellan, ch bo dao ng l chnh [ch gia ng trung binh
sun hm s m 19 ngy (10% xu hung) v 39 ngy (5% xu hung)
ca s liu tng gim rng hng ngy. S giao nhau ln trn ng so
0 l tn hiutch cc v dui i tiu cc. Ch s cao hn +100 l mua
qu mc trong khi thp hom -100 l bn qu mc.
Chi s cng gp McClellan: Tng tch ly ca tt c cc ch s ch

bo dao ng McClcllan hng ngy cho php phn tch bin di hn
thng s rng th trung. c s dng tuong t nh ng tng
gim.
Xung lng: Mt k thut dng dng mt ch bo dao ng mua

bn qu mc. Xung krng o lung chnh lch trong mt khong
thi gian dc chn. dng mt ung xung lung 10 ngy, ta ly
gi ng ca gn nht tr cho gi ng ca 10 ngy trc. Gi tr m
hay dng s c dng trn hoc dui ng s 0. (Xem Chi bo
dao ng.)
irng trung bnh di ng: Mt chi bo theo xu hung hot ng

hiu qu trong mt m trung c xu hung. ng trung bnh di dng
th hin bin ng gi bng mt ng t dao ng hn nhung li chm
tr v mt thi gian. V d, mt dng trung bnh di dng 10 ngy trn
th chng khon s cng gi dng ca 10 ngy gn nht v chia tng
cho 10. Quy trnh ny duc lp li mi ngy. C th s dng bt k
mt con s ng trung bnh di ng no uc s dng, vi cc qung
thi gian khc nhau, d to ra tn hiu mua v bn. Khi mt ung trung
bnh uc ua vo s dng, tn hiu mua xut hin kh gi ng ca bn
trn ng trung bnh. Khi s dng hai ung trung bnh, tin hiu mua
xut hin khi dng ngn hn ct ln trn ng di hn. C ba dng:
ng n gin, ng t trng tuyn tnh v ung mt theo hm
Chi bo cn bng khi lung (OBV): c pht trin b) Joseph

Granville, OBV l tng tch ly lin tip khi lung giao dch tng v
gim. Khi lng ca ngy tng c cng vo v ca ngy gim b tr
i. ng OBV c v vi ung gi c th nhn thy hai ung
c xc nhn ln nhau khng. (Xem phn Khi lng giao dch.)
S lung hp dng chua tt ton: L s hp ng tng lai hoc

quyn chn cha uc thanh l vo cui mt phin giao dch. S gia
tng hay suy gim s lng hp ng chua tt ton tuong ng th hin
dng tin ang i vo hay r khi mt hp ng tung lai v quyn
chn. Trong th trng tng lai, s lng hp dng chua tt ton tng
cng c cho xu hng hin ti. s lng hp ng chua tt ton cng
nh gi tinh thanh khon.
Ch bo dao dng: Chi bo xc nh khi no mt th trung trong

tnh trng mua qu mc hoc bn qu mc. Khi chi bo dao ng chm
im cc trn, thrtrung l mua qu mc. Khi ng chi bo ny chm
im cc dui l th trng bn qu mc. (Xem phn Xung Iung, T
thay i, Chi s sc mnh tuong i v chi bo Stochastics.)
Mua qu mc: L thut ng dng cho chi bo dao ng. Khi mt

ch bo dao ng chm im cc trn, th trung c tin rng tng
qu mc v khng bn vng dn n vic rt gi.
Bn qu mc: Mt thut ng thung c dng cho chi bo dao

dng. Khi mt chi bo dao ng chm im cc di, th th trung
c cho l rt gi qu nhiu v n hi bt li.
C ui nheo: L mt hnh gi tip din tng t m hnh c, ngoi

tr vic n ko di ra nhiu hn v ging mt tam gic oi xngnh.
Ging vi m hnh c, c ui nheo thng ko di t mt n ba tun
v sau l mt s hi phc xu hng trc .
T l nh u t du c gi ln: Cng c dnh gi tm l du c

gi ln ca th trng chng khon ny uc cng b hnh tun bi
Investor's Intelligence o f New Rochelle, New York. Khi chi C 35% nh
544 John J. Murphy
u t chuyn nghip u c gi ln, th trung c xem l bn qu

mc. Cn con s 55% li uc cho l mua qu mc.
M hnh gi: Cc m hnh xut hin trn th gi v c gi tr d

on. Cc m hnh ny uc chia thnh m hnh o chiu v m hnh
tip din.
Tc bin thin: Mt k thut dc s dng d dng ch bo dao

ng mua bn qu mc. Tc bin thin p dng h s gi trn mt
khong thi gian. dng mt ung chi bo tc bin thin trong
10 ngy, ta ly gi dng ca ca 10 ngy trc chia cho gi ng ca
ngy gn nht. Kt qu s uc v ln trn hoc bn di ngng gi
tr 100.
Phn tch h s: C cng dng so snh sc mnh tng i ca hai

ch th. Ta ly mt c phiu ring k hoc nhm c phiungnh chia
cho ch s s&p 500 xc nh c tnh vut tri hay st gi ca c
phiu/ nhm c phiu ngnh so vi cc c phiu khc trn th trng
chng khon chung. Mt h s tng chi ra rng ch th trn th hin
tt hon ch th di. Phn tch xu hng c th p dng ng h
s ny xc nh im chuyn i quan trng.
Chi s cng tirng i: L mt ch bo dao dng ph bin uc

pht trin bi Welles Wilder (con) v uc gii thiu trong cun sch
ca ng, Khi nim mi trong h thng Giao dch K Ttut. Ch s ny
uc v theo t l dc t 0 n 100. Gi tr cao hcm 70 cho thy tnh
trng mua v mc v thp hn 30 l bn qu mc. Khi gi cao hn 70
v thp hcm 30 v khc vi dng thi gi th mt tn hiu o chiu xu
hng dc to ra. Ch s cung tng i lun lun p thing
khong thi gian 9 v 14.
Ngng khng cir i lp vi ngung h tr. Ngung khng c

c nh du bng mt inh gi trc v l ro cn ca th trung
tng gi. (Xem Ngng h tr.)
Thoi li: Gi thng thoi li so vi xu hung trc theo mt

t l no trc khi hi phc xu hng ban u. V d thng thy
nht l thoi li 50%. Ngnng thoi li ti thiu v ti a thung thy
ln lt l mt phn ba v hai phn ba. Cc nh phn tch s dng l
thuyt sng Biliott cng p dng cc mc thoi li phn trm theo
Fibonacci l 38% v 62%.
M hnh do chiu: M hnh gi trn th gi thung cho thy s

o chiu ang din ra. M hnh do chiu thung thy nht l du v
vai v hai nh v hai y, ba inh v ba y.
Vng trng o lng: Mt vng trng gi thung xut hin im

gia mt xu hng quan trng. Vi th m n uc gi l vng trng o
lung. (Xem Vng trong).
Ch bo tm l: Ch bo v mt tm l nh gi mc mong mun
mua vo hoc bn-fa trong mt th trng. Chng l chi bo i lp v
gn ging vi dng ca chi bo dao ng mua qu mc v bn qu mc.
Gi tr ln nht ca n th hin ic chng chm im cc trn v im
cc dui.
ng trung bnh on: Mt ung trung bnh di ng xem cc d

liu gi ca mi ngy c t trng bng nhau. ( xem ng trung binh
di dng t trng bng nhau v ung sun theo s m.)
Ch bo Stochastics: Mt chi bo mua - bn qu mc c ph bin

bi Grogre Lane. 14 giai on l khong thi gian thng uc s
dng. Stochastics s dng hai dng %K v ng trung bnh ba giai
on ca n, ung %D. Hai ng ny lc l theo chiu dc trong
bin t 0 n 100. Ch s trn 80 l mua qu mc, cri di 20 l
bn qu mc. khi ung nhanh hn l %K bng ln trn ung chm
hon l %D v hai dng nm di 20 th tn hiumua xut hin. Khi
ung %K bng xung di ng %D v hai ng trn 80 cho mt
tin hiubn.
546 John J. Murphy
Ngirimg ho tr<r Mt miic gi hay vng gi ben diri gia thi trung
hier tai tai d luc mua du kh nng kiem che mt dot gim gi. mt dy
tuong ng tnrc d thung l mt ngung ho tro.
Tarn gic di xng: Mt m hinh gi di ngang giua hai dung

dung xu hung hoi tu trong d dung ben tren thi gim cn dung ben
dui thi tng. M hinh ny dai dien cho mt su cn bng p luc mua
bn, mc du xu hung tmc d thung se hoi phuc. Sur ph v c hai
dung xu hung bo hieu hung pht trien ca xu hung. (xem Tarn
gic tng v gim.)
Phn tich ky thut: L nghien cu hoat dng thi trung, thung

bng do thi gi, bao gm khi luong giao djch v so luong hop dng
chua tat ton. Cn duoc goi l phn tich do thi, phn tich thi trung v
gan dy l phn tich true quan.
Xu hung: Am-chi chieu hung cua gi. Cc dinh v dy tng dan

xc dinh mt xu hung tng, trong khi d cc dinh v dy gim dan xc
dinh xu hung gim. Mt bien d giao dich (hay giao dich trong bien
d) l nhfing dinh v dy ngang nhau. Xu hung thng thung duoc
phn thnh ba loai l chinh (hon 1 nm), trung binh (tut 1 den 6 thng),
v phu (it hon 1 thng).
Dung xu hung: L dung thing ve ni cc dy trong xu hung

tng, hoc ni cc dinh hi phuc trong xu hung gim xc dinh d dc
ca xu hung hin tai. Su ph v dung xu hung thung l tin hieu
do chieu.
Tarn gic: M hinh gi di ngang, trong d gi dao dng gia hai

dung xu hung ct nhau. C ba dang l di xng, tng v gim.
Ba dinh: Mt m hinh gi c ba dinh ndi bat, tuong tu dinh dau v

vai, ngoai tn'r ba dinh ny ngang nhau. Ba dy l m hinh do nguoc
ca ba dinh.
Dung xu hung tng: L mt dung thng hung len ve phia phi

ni cc y tng ng. ung xu hung tng cng di v cng c th

thch nhiu ln, th cng c ngha. S ph v ng xu hng thng
l tn hiu thay i ca xu hng tng. (Xem phn ng xu hng
gim)
Phn tch trc quan: Mt dng phn tch s dng th v chi bo

th trng xc nh hung th trung.
Khi lng giao dch: Mc giao dch trong mt chng khon,

quyn chn, hay hp ng tng lai. Khi lung giao dch theo hung
ca xu hung hin ti nu uc gia tng s l s xc nhn xu hung .
(xem Cn bng khi lng).
o chiu tun: Mt s o chiu hng ln hng tun din ra khi

gi m ca gim vo Th Hai v ng ca vo Th Su cao hn mc
ng ca tun truc. Mt s o chiu i xung hng tun vi gi m
ca tun tng nhung gitig ca gim vo th 6. (Xem phn Phin
o chiu chinh).
TVung bnh t trng: Mt ng trung bnh s dng mt qung

thi gian no d, nhung t nhng d liu gi gn nht mc quan
trng ln hom. (Xem Trung bnh di ng.)

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PHANTI'CH

Cc chi bao thi truong c phiu - Lung pht

th hlnh nn - Cch s dng hiu qu cc

Phn tich lin th trung - Mt ni dung gii

Ngoi ra, cun cm nang ny cn cha ng cc

Mt cng c v gi dnh cho tt c cc nh giao

PHNTCH K THUT TH TRNC TI CHNH: CAM NANG HNG DNTON d i n v

Mi thng (in v ni dung sch, vui lng lin h:

V pht hnh, vui lng lin h: NH SCH LC

Phc lc .................................................................................................... 487

Ra i cch y hng trm nm trc, phn tch k thut l mt cng c

cng c ny kh c hiu qu ti Vit Nam v th trng chng khon cn

Bt chp nhng r cn tm thi trong vic ph bin cng c ny ti

Nm nm tmc, vi mong mun gii thiu v ph bin phng php

V phn tch k thut mt lnh vc cn kh mi ti Vit Nam, trong

Xin chn thnh cm n v chc bn c tim thy nhng iu hu ch

TP. H Chi Minh, thng 3 nm 2011.

John J. Murphy p dng phn tch k thut trong sut 30 nm. ng

Vo nm 1996, Murphy cng chuyn gia pht trin phn mm Greg

Thomas E. Aspray (Ph lc A) l chuyn gia phn tch Th trng vn

Dennis c. Hynes (Ph lc B) l Gim dc iu hnh v ng sng

Greg M orris (Chng 12 v ph lc D) pht trin h thng v

Fred G. Schutzman, CM T (ph lc C) t Ch tch kim Gim c

Ti khng h ngh rng cun Phn tch K thut Th trng Tng

Tuy nhin, mi vic tr nn r rng hn khi nhiu ti liu uc b

Mc d S quan tm chnh ca bn thn ti trong 10 nm qua vn l

Nhiu chi bo k thut tng c s dng u tin ti th trung

Ti c gng gi li cu trc cun sch gc. Do , rt nhiu

c thm ba chng c b sung. Hai chng trc v th

Chng 18 ni v nhng ch bo th trng chng khon. Chng ti

Ti chinh sa cun sch ny trong ni bn khon v khng cho rng

Ngui xng ng c uc danh ting nht trong ln ti bn th hai c

Trit l ca phn tch

Tc gi c mt nim tin mnh m rng ton b nh gi v phung

Tnrc tin, chfr'g ta hy xc nh mc tiu. Phn tch k thut l

dch tung lai v giao dch quyn chn), vn thung c s dng,

1. Bin ng th trng phn nh tt c.

Bin ng th trirng phn nh tt c

Tt c nhng g m chuyn gia phn tch k thut khng dnh chnh

chuyn gia phn tch k thut s i n mt kt lun l khi gi tng th

Trong phn ln cc trung hp, bn thn nhng ngui s dng

Gi di chuyn theo xu hng

phn tich k thut. Mt ln na, bn khng cn phi tip tc c cun

C mt h qu tt yu i vi gi thuyt rng gi di chuyn theo xu

Hnh 1.1 Vi d v mt xu hung tng. Phn tch k thut da vo gi thuyt

D ON BNG PHN TCH c BN s o VI D ON

C hai phuong php d on th trng u nhm gii quyt mt vn

Hu ht cc nh giao dch u t coi minh nh nhng chuyn gia

Li gii thch cho nhng vn c v tri nguc nhau ny ! do gi

Sau mt thi gian, chuyn gia phn tich k thut mi cng c c

Trong qu trnh tha nhn cc gi thuyt ca phn tch k thut,

PHN TCH V VIC TNH TON THI lM

hng c th khin cc nh giao dch "vng" khi th trng v chy

Cc nh giao dch tng lai thi khng c due s thoi mi d.

TNH LINH NG V KH NNG TH CH NG CA PHN

Ngi s dng th c th theo ui nhiu th trung nu mun,

C mt iu l cc th trung s tri qua nhng thi k bin ng

mnh v trm lng, nhng giao on theo xu hng v khng xu hng.

Mt li th khc ca chuyn gia phn tch k thut chnh l vic h