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India in 2050
India in 2050
Does this growth mean India can rely on the demographic dividend to
spur development? This phenomenon, which refers to the period in which a large proportion of a
countrys population is of working age, is said to have accounted for between one-fourth and
two-fifths of East Asias economic miracle as observed late last century.
But India is not East Asia. Its population density is almost three times
the average in East Asia and more than eight times the world average of 45 people per square
kilometre. If India has anywhere near 1.69 billion people in 2050, it will have more than 500
people per square kilometre. Besides, in terms of infrastructure development India currently is
nowhere near where East Asian nations were before their boom. In terms of soft to hard
infrastructure, spanning education, healthcare, roads, electricity, housing, employment growth
and more, India is visibly strained.
For example, India has an installed energy capacity of little more than
200 gigawatts; China has more than 1000 gigawatts and aims to generate 600 gigawatts of clean
electricity by 2020. To make matters worse, many of the newly installed power stations in India
face an acute shortage of coal, and future supply is not guaranteed. China mines close to four
billion tonnes of coal per year, which has a negative effect on both local and global air quality.
At some stage, it is probably inevitable that India will need much greater capacity than its
present rate of mining 600 million tonnes of coal per year, which is also causing local and global
pollution levels to rise parts of India face air quality problems similar to those in China. On
oil, India imports close to 80 per cent of its crude oil requirements, while it also runs an
unsustainable current account deficit of more than 5 per cent of its GDP, and reserves for new
energy sources like shale gas do not look promising either.
So, for India, treating lightly Malthusian predictions about food supply
until 2050 or beyond may not be prudent. Worldwide food prices have been on the rise to
unforeseen levels, and India too has been suffering from high food inflation.
The probable answer is that policy makers have failed miserably on all
measurable counts. If one compares India to China this becomes clear. While Chinas one-child
policy has been criticised as against human dignity and rights and there is no denying that
such measures should be avoided as far as possible the history of human civilization teaches
us that extreme situations call for extreme actions. There will be ample time for multiple schools
to have their post-mortems on the success and failure of the one-child policy, but it has helped
China to control its population by a possible 400 million people.
There are still millions of people still surviving in india on income of less
than one dollar a day . India will never be consider developed country unless and until the
poverty, hunger and pain of the poor on the streets and those living in the slums is curbed.
according to the wealth report 2012 by knightfrunk and citi private bank,
india will emerge as the economic superpower in 2050, beating U.S. and china with a GDP of
$85.97 trillion and india will also witness an economic growth of 8% by 2050.
By Chirag S. Kugasiya