Result And Discussion (Rahmat Abdullah After we had the data we have to plot

1401358) these into the graphic, Time Vs Cumulative

Production, to choose the trend line of decline
In this paper we have to determine the that must be relatively linear.
wich Decline Curve that we used to make the Q Vs Time
forecast the well life permormance, and also we 100,000
can know from the forecast are, flow rate of Actual Data

Q (BOPM)
well, how much the well can flowing the fluid to
the surface per month or day. From that too we Trend Line
can know the remaining reserve at reservoir.
And the data that should we have to 10,000
determine Decline Curve were :
 Well Flow Rate
 Cumulative Production
 Production Time, and this must to
remember the well must producted for 1,000
long term. 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016
The well must producted for long term, that is Time (Month)
to say the production interval of well must be at The red line are trend line that we
long time. For three years for example. choose to illustrates the decline trend wich later
we using these data that we set for calculate
Here are the production data that obtain, the (Di) Value, by using Trial Error-Chi Square
Test method.
7/1/2015 22331
8/1/2015 20932
9/1/2015 18605
10/1/2015 15696
11/1/2015 12332
12/1/2015 8692
1/1/2016 8538
2/1/2016 5321
3/1/2016 3115
Table above were the data that we choose as
relatively trendline.
b Di X2
0 0.246218337 10266.52
0.1 0.272141494 12680.44
0.2 0.301765891 15394.71
0.3 0.335690036 18408.19
0.4 0.374616013 21715.26
0.5 0.419368189 25305.75
0.6 0.470915396 29165.03
0.7 0.530397264 33274.25
0.8 0.599155465 37610.72
0.9 0.678770847 42148.42
1 0.771107544 46858.6
 Table above were the result of our
calculate by using Trial Error-Chi Square Test
method. This must be rember to choose the (Di)
value we have to choose the smallest value, the
smallest value were indicate the decline with
relatively linear trend. So we choose the (Di), as
seen at table above with yellow sign. And (b)
value are 0 that mean we use exponential
method for calculating the forecast.
After we obtain the (Di) and (b) value
we can calculate the forecast, and also from the
forecast we can know:
 How long the well can Perform
 How large the well can Produce per
month,day,years
 How much the remaining reserve
 And also how much the Recovery Factor
has we gain
From our calculate we can use these
result as parameter to determine the value that
we describe before,
 How long the well can Perform,
As we seen on the graph above we can
know the well can perform until 1 December
2020, since the well were opened for
production at 1 January 2014 and last
production history at 1 May 2016, so we can
know the well could perform for 6 years and 7
month left again, until the flow rate drop to 5
STB/day.
 How large the well can be produce per
day,month,and years.
From the forcast production at Q limit
were 582 STB/m was on 1 November 2017, and
flow rate per day was 18.8 STB.

The following graphic below were the result  How much the remaining reserve.
of our forecast, and we set the Q limit at (582 From the forecast we also can know the
SBT/m). remaining reserve that did not lifted yet to the
surface, with the Q limit that we set on Forecast
was 5 STB/day was 37 MBBL. This value we
Q Vs Time obtain by calculate the total of cumulative
production from early forecast until late
100000.0
forecast (Q limit, 5 STB/day).
Forecast
Line
 How large the Recovery Factor that we
gain.
Actual Line
10000.0 Form the forecast also we can
determine the recovery factor of our well at
Q (STB/m)

current state, by calculate the (Q) total of oil

Interval from early history data to late forecast data, or
Trendline
we know as IOIP were 757 MSTB. And we need
1000.0 to calculate the total of (Q ) that has been
Q limit producted were 720 MSTB

RF : Q Production/Q Total x 100%

720
100.0 757
𝑥 100% = 95%
2014 2016 2019 2022
Time (years)