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Presentation To Macquarie Corporate Day in Singapore & Hong Kong
Presentation To Macquarie Corporate Day in Singapore & Hong Kong
Presentation To Macquarie Corporate Day in Singapore & Hong Kong
September 2010
Strictly Private & Confidential
1
© Rismark International Funds Management Ltd ABN 15 114 530 139, AFS licence number 293881
This presentation is strictly private and confidential and should not be distributed or duplicated under any circumstances
Agenda
1. About Rismark
2. Introduction
3. Have Australian House Prices Risen Too Rapidly?
4. International Comparisons
5. Were the Real Bubbles in Equities (shhh!)?
6. What is Happening to the Aussie Housing Market Now?
7. Solid Underlying Fundamentals
8. How Vulnerable are Australian Borrowers?
9. Investment Solutions for those that want to Hedge or Go Long
2
1. About Rismark
3
1. About Rismark
• Partnered with Australia’s leading data company, RP Data Ltd (ASX: RPX)
• Australia’s leading residential real estate research & investment business
– Awarded 15x patents in Australia, US and Singapore
– Hedonic house price indices
– Automated property valuation models
• A range of investment solutions
– Listed and OTC house price index hedge/shorts
– Listed and OTC house price index longs
– Direct longs
4
2. Introduction
5
2. Why is Aussie Housing Market Important?
6
2. Popular Trade: Short Aussie Banks & Aussie House Prices
7
3. Have Australian House Prices Risen Too Rapidly?
8
3. Dwelling Prices Tracked Disposable Incomes 1:1 Last 7 Years
Australian Disposable Household Incomes vs.
Capital City and Rest of State Housing Costs
RP Data-Rismark Capital City Hedonic Dwelling Prices
RP Data-Rismark Rest of State Hedonic House Prices
ABS Disposable Household Incomes (per h/hold)
200
150
100
50
0
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Source: RP Data-Rismark 9
3. Jeremy Grantham is Wrong: the Price-to-Income Ratio is just 4.6x
• RBA: “the ratio of house prices to income is not that different from most other countries”
Rismark Australian All Regions Dwelling Price-to-Income Ratio Index:
Rismark All Regions Trimmed Mean Dwelling Price-to-Income Ratio
Rismark All Regions Median Dwelling Price-to-Income Ratio
8x
Jeremy Grantham (GMO)
7x
6x
5x
4x
3x
2x
1x
0x
Mar-93
Sep-93
Mar-94
Sep-94
Mar-95
Sep-95
Mar-96
Sep-96
Mar-97
Sep-97
Mar-98
Sep-98
Mar-99
Sep-99
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Source: Rismark; ABS; HIA 10
3. Inflation-Targeting Regime Drove Downward Shift in Nominal Rates
16%
RBA formally agrees 2-3%
14%
inflation target
12.6%
12%
10%
8%
7.3%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Jan-80
Jan-81
Jan-82
Jan-83
Jan-84
Jan-85
Jan-86
Jan-87
Jan-88
Jan-89
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Source: Rismark; RBA 11
4. International Comparisons
12
4. Australia Underperformed Between 2003 and 2006
CAGRs
250
8.9%
7.8%
200 7.4%
6.9%
150 3.4%
100
50
0
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Source: RP Data-Rismark; NZ REI; Case-Shiller; Acadametrics; Teranet 13
4. Australia has Much Higher Urban Concentrations
55%
50% 48%
47%
45% 43%
40%
35%
25%
Australia Japan United States Canada New Zealand United
Kingdom
Source: PRB 14
4. Australia has Much Higher Projected Population Growth Rate
50%
43%
40%
30% 27%
24% 24%
20%
10%
0%
Australia United States New Zealand Canada United Japan
Japan
Japan
-10% Kingdom
-20%
-25%
-30%
Source: PRB 15
4. Australian Population Growth Amongst Highest in Developed World
Population Growth Rates over the Last 11 Years (to end 2008)
Australia Canada New Zealand United Kingdom United States Japan
120
Aust.
115
110
105
Jap.
100
95
90
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Rismark; IMF 16
4. Substantially Stronger than US and UK
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Sep-99
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Source: Rismark; US Census Bureau; Statistics UK 17
5. Were the Real Bubbles in Equities (shhh!)?
18
5. US Peak-to-Trough: Shares Fell by 52.6% vs. 32.6% for House Prices
Collapse of US Credit Creation System with Fannie, Freddie & FHA Funding c. 90% of Home
Loans
S&P500 Case-Shiller 20 City Composite
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan-06
Mar-06
May-06
Jul-06
Sep-06
Nov-06
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Source: Rismark; S&P 19
5. UK Peak-to-Trough: Shares Fell by 43.0% vs. 13.6% for House Prices
Partial Nationalisation of the UK Banking System with Extreme Residential Credit Rationing
100
80
60
40
20
0
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Source: Rismark; FTSE; Academetrics 20
5. Australia Peak-to-Trough: Shares Fell by 50.5% vs. 3.8% for House Prices
Australian Banking System Remains Secure with Positive Residential Credit Growth
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Source: RP Data-Rismark; S&P 21
6. What is Happening to Aussie Housing Market Now?
22
6. After 6x Rate Increases, Vendors are Discounting Prices More…
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
-7%
-8%
-9%
-10%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Source: RP Data; Rismark 24
6. Inventories Across Australia have Risen a Little Higher
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
03/01/07
21/02/07
11/04/07
30/05/07
18/07/07
05/09/07
24/10/07
12/12/07
30/01/08
19/03/08
07/05/08
25/06/08
13/08/08
01/10/08
19/11/08
04/01/09
22/02/09
12/04/09
31/05/09
19/07/09
06/09/09
25/10/09
13/12/09
31/01/10
21/03/10
09/05/10
27/06/10
15/08/10
Source: RP Data; Rismark 25
6. Inventories Across Capital Cities Well Below 2008 Levels
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
03/01/07
28/02/07
25/04/07
20/06/07
15/08/07
10/10/07
05/12/07
30/01/08
26/03/08
21/05/08
16/07/08
10/09/08
05/11/08
31/12/08
22/02/09
19/04/09
14/06/09
09/08/09
04/10/09
29/11/09
24/01/10
21/03/10
16/05/10
11/07/10
Source: RP Data; Rismark 26
6. Capital City and Rest of State Dwelling Prices have Tapered (Shock!)
RP Data-Rismark Capital Cities Hedonic All Dwellings RP Data-Rismark Rest of State Hedonic Houses
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Source: RP Data-Rismark 27
6. Price Tapering Clear Across All Suburbs During Second Quarter
RP Data-Rismark Capital Cities Hedonic All Dwellings RP Data-Rismark Rest of State Hedonic Houses
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Source: RP Data-Rismark 29
6. Same for Cheap, Middle and Expensive Suburbs
Performance of Australian Capital City Suburbs
(All Dwellings) Ranked by Price since December 2008
Bottom 20% of Suburbs Middle 60% of Suburbs Top 20% of Suburbs
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Source: RP Data-Rismark 30
6. Good News: Markets Think No More Rate Hikes (But is Market Wrong?)…
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Source: Rismark; ASX 31
7. Solid Underlying Fundamentals
32
7. Big Divergence between Growth in Population and Growth in New Supply
New Building Approvals vs. Increase in Australia's Resident Population:
Quarterly Moving Annual Change
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Sep-84
Mar-85
Sep-85
Mar-86
Sep-86
Mar-87
Sep-87
Mar-88
Sep-88
Mar-89
Sep-89
Mar-90
Sep-90
Mar-91
Sep-91
Mar-92
Sep-92
Mar-93
Sep-93
Mar-94
Sep-94
Mar-95
Sep-95
Mar-96
Sep-96
Mar-97
Sep-97
Mar-98
Sep-98
Mar-99
Sep-99
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Source: Rismark; ABS 33
7. Treasury Expects c. 60% Increase in Resident Population by 2050
45,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
2034
2038
2042
2046
2050
2054
2058
2062
2066
2070
2074
2078
2082
2086
2090
2094
2098
Source: Rismark; ABS 34
7. Demand-Supply Disconnect Drive Underlying Housing Shortage
400,000
300,000
Number of Dwellings
200,000
100,000
0
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
-100,000
Source: ANZ 35
8. How Vulnerable are Australian Borrowers?
36
8. Household Debt Not Unusually High
• RBA: “the current household debt ratio in Australia is similar to that in most developed countries”
Source: RBA
37
8. Three-Quarters of Debt Held by Top 2x Income Quintiles
• RBA: “The increased debt has mostly been taken on by households which are in the strongest
position to service it…the big increases in household debt over the past decade have been at the high
end of the income distribution”
• RBA: “Households in the top two income quintiles account for 75 per cent of all outstanding
household debt…households in the bottom two income quintiles account for only 10 per cent of
household debt”
Source: RBA
38
8. Australian Housing Leverage Less than Half US Levels
• RBA: Total gearing in the housing sector is just 29%, which is less than half US leverage
• RBA: Total household debt to household assets ratio is also less than 20%
Source: RBA
39
8. Change in Debt-to-Assets Ratios Function of Inflation-Targeting
18%
50%
16%
14%
Debt to Assets Ratio
40%
Mortgage Rates
12%
30% 10%
8%
20%
6%
4%
10%
2%
0% 0%
Jun-77
Jun-78
Jun-79
Jun-80
Jun-81
Jun-82
Jun-83
Jun-84
Jun-85
Jun-86
Jun-87
Jun-88
Jun-89
Jun-90
Jun-91
Jun-92
Jun-93
Jun-94
Jun-95
Jun-96
Jun-97
Jun-98
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Source: Rismark; RBA 40
8. Australia Does have High Interest Rates (c. 85% Resi. Borrowers Variable)
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Source: Rismark; RBA 41
8. But Consistently Very Low Mortgage Default Rates
7%
6%
Per cent of Loans
5%
4%
3% 2.9%
2.4%
2%
1% 0.68%
0.45%
0%
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Source: Rismark; RBA 42
8. System-Wide Household DSCR is Strong
Household Interest Repayments to Disposable Income
Total Interest Repayments to Disposable Household Income (LHS)
Mortgage Interest Repayments to Disposable Household Income (LHS)
Variable Mortgage Rates (RHS)
40% 20%
Interest Repayments to Disposable Income
35% 18%
16%
30%
14%
Mortgage Rates
25%
12%
Ratio
20% 10%
8%
15%
6%
10%
4%
5%
2%
0% 0%
Jun-77
Jun-79
Jun-81
Jun-83
Jun-85
Jun-87
Jun-89
Jun-91
Jun-93
Jun-95
Jun-97
Jun-99
Jun-01
Jun-03
Jun-05
Jun-07
Jun-09
Source: Rismark; RBA 43
8. Only Small Share of High Risk Borrowers
• RBA: Only ~2.5% of borrowers have LVR ≥ 90% AND repayments ≥ 50% disposable income
• RBA: Only ~3.5% have LVR ≥ 80% AND repayments ≥ 50% disposable income
Source: RBA 44
8. Australia has not Experienced Debt-Fuelled Property Boom since 2007
Growth in Australian Housing Credit Outstanding Very Low
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Feb-90
Aug-90
Feb-91
Aug-91
Feb-92
Aug-92
Feb-93
Aug-93
Feb-94
Aug-94
Feb-95
Aug-95
Feb-96
Aug-96
Feb-97
Aug-97
Feb-98
Aug-98
Feb-99
Aug-99
Feb-00
Aug-00
Feb-01
Aug-01
Feb-02
Aug-02
Feb-03
Aug-03
Feb-04
Aug-04
Feb-05
Aug-05
Feb-06
Aug-06
Feb-07
Aug-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-10
Source: Rismark; RBA 45
8. What Happened in 1991 Recession with Huge Spike in Unemployment?
100
80
60
40
20
0
Dec-89
Feb-90
Apr-90
Jun-90
Aug-90
Oct-90
Dec-90
Feb-91
Apr-91
Jun-91
Aug-91
Oct-91
Dec-91
Feb-92
Apr-92
Jun-92
Aug-92
Oct-92
Dec-92
Source: RP Data-Rismark; ABS; Residex; REIA; CBA/HIA 46
9. What about China?
47
9. 40% of Labour Still Employed in Agriculture; Only 46.6% Urbanised
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: UBS 48
9. House Price-to-Income Ratios Look High; But also Low!
10x
8x
6x
4x
2x
0x
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: UBS; Rismark
49
9. Very Low Levels of Household Leverage
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: UBS
50
9. Very Low Levels of Household Leverage
Household Debt as a Share of Disposable Income
China US Korea
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: UBS
51
9. China 70-City New Houses Index has Underperformed since 2000
Average Monthly Annual House Price Growth: January 2000 to March 2010
10%
9.0%
9%
8.3% 8.2%
8%
7% 6.8%
5.9%
6%
5%
4.0%
4%
U
3%
2%
1%
0%
Australia NZ UK Canada China 70 City US
New
Source: UK (Academetrics, Composite Indices); US (Case-Shiller 20 City, Repeat-Sales); Canada (Teranet, Repeat-Sales); Australia (RP
Data-Rismark, Hedonic); NZ (REINZ, Stratified); China (National Bureau of Statistics)
52
9. China 70-City New/Estab. Houses Index have Not Outperformed since 2005
Average Monthly Annual House Price Growth: July 2005 to March 2010
8%
6.4% 6.3% 6.3%
6% 5.6% 5.4%
4%
2.5%
2%
0%
Canada Australia China 70 City China 70 City NZ UK UUS
US
New Established S
-2%
-4% -3.6%
-6%
Source: UK (Academetrics, Composite Indices); US (Case-Shiller 20 City, Repeat-Sales); Canada (Teranet, Repeat-Sales); Australia (RP
Data-Rismark, Hedonic); NZ (REINZ, Stratified); China (National Bureau of Statistics)
53
Important Notice, Confidentiality and Intellectual Property
Rismark International is an authorised representative of AFS Licensee 293881. Neither the presentation nor any summary or reconstituted form
of its informational contents may be copied, distributed or otherwise made available to any other person by any recipient without the written
consent of Rismark International. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the facts stated herein are accurate and that any opinions
contained herein are fair and reasonable, this document is selective in nature and is intended to provide an introduction to, and an overview of,
investment in EFMs. Where any information and statistics are quoted from any external source, such information or statistics should not be
interpreted as having been adopted or endorsed by Rismark International as being accurate. The facts and information contained herein are as
up to date as is reasonably possible and may be subject to revision in the future. Neither Rismark International nor any of its directors, officers,
employees or advisors nor any other person makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the
information contained in this presentation. Neither Rismark International nor any of its directors, officers, employees and advisors nor any other
person shall have any liability whatsoever for loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this presentation. All references to $
or dollars are to Australian dollars unless otherwise specified. This presentation does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for, or
purchase, any securities.
This presentation is strictly confidential. It contains descriptions of confidential intellectual property and business methods, processes, systems,
and technologies that are protected under pending and sealed patents owned by Rismark International or its related entities. This presentation is
only being made available to recipients who have signed and returned a Confidentiality Agreement and recipients are therefore bound by the
Confidentiality Agreement in respect of all information contained in this presentation. This presentation is confidential and must not be copied,
reproduced, distributed or passed (in whole or in part) to any other person at any time without the prior written consent of Rismark
International. This presentation contains references to several registered and pending trade marks, including RAPT, ARES, Rismark and EFM,
amongst others. It also makes references to proprietary business methods, processes, systems, and technologies that are either protected
intellectual property assets under Australian Innovation Patent No. 2005100 871, Australian Innovation Patent No. 2005100 869, Australian
Innovation Patent No. 2005100 868, Australian Innovation Patent No. 2005 100 867, Australian Innovation Patent No. 2005 100 865, and
Australian Innovation Patent No. 2005 100 864, or pending intellectual property assets covered in claims under European Patent No.
05256351.7, International Patent No. PCT/AU2005/001586, US Patent No. 11/248,253, and Australian Patent No. 2005 222 542. Rismark
International or entities related to Rismark International own these patents, trade marks and other intellectual property assets and reserve their
rights in relation to such. Unauthorised violation of these rights may result in civil action, including orders for damages, injunctions and accounts
of profits and claims will be actively pursued.
54