Presentation To Macquarie Corporate Day in Singapore & Hong Kong

You might also like

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 54

Presentation to

Macquarie Corporate Day


in Singapore & Hong Kong

Christopher R.E. Joye


Managing Director
Rismark International

September 2010
Strictly Private & Confidential

1
© Rismark International Funds Management Ltd ABN 15 114 530 139, AFS licence number 293881
This presentation is strictly private and confidential and should not be distributed or duplicated under any circumstances
Agenda

1. About Rismark
2. Introduction
3. Have Australian House Prices Risen Too Rapidly?
4. International Comparisons
5. Were the Real Bubbles in Equities (shhh!)?
6. What is Happening to the Aussie Housing Market Now?
7. Solid Underlying Fundamentals
8. How Vulnerable are Australian Borrowers?
9. Investment Solutions for those that want to Hedge or Go Long

2
1. About Rismark

3
1. About Rismark

• Partnered with Australia’s leading data company, RP Data Ltd (ASX: RPX)
• Australia’s leading residential real estate research & investment business
– Awarded 15x patents in Australia, US and Singapore
– Hedonic house price indices
– Automated property valuation models
• A range of investment solutions
– Listed and OTC house price index hedge/shorts
– Listed and OTC house price index longs
– Direct longs

4
2. Introduction

5
2. Why is Aussie Housing Market Important?

• At $3.5 trillion, housing is Australia’s most valuable asset-class


– 2.5x size of Aussie equities market ($1.4 trillion)
– Biggest source of household wealth (c. 61%)
• Most important bank balance-sheet asset
– $1 trillion of residential mortgages on bank b/s
– 62% of bank assets are residential loans
• Australia has very concentrated banking system
– Four ‘majors’ control c.83% of bank residential credit
– Four majors currently AA rated (only 16 AA rated (S&P) or better banks in world)
– Australian banks heavily reliant on wholesale funding
Very high 120% loan-to-deposit ratio
• Housing is Australia’s biggest “potential” source of financial stability risk

6
2. Popular Trade: Short Aussie Banks & Aussie House Prices

• The Economist newspaper:


– 2010: Australian housing “61.1% over-valued”
– 2010: “Australian property is the most overvalued of any of the 20 countries we track”
• Jeremy Grantham, GMO:
– 2010: Australian housing is a “time bomb”
– 2010:“You are at near 7.5 times family income which suggests you are 2x size you should be”
• Gerard Minack, Morgan Stanley:
– 2010: “Australia’s debt-fuelled housing market remains a major macro risk”
– 2010:“House prices are around 40% above fair value…housing is a bubble”
• Assoc. Prof. Steve Keen, Aussie Roubini-wannabe:
– 2008: “Price of housing is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years”
– 2010: Expects to see an “an accelerating rate of decline in [Australian] house prices now”

7
3. Have Australian House Prices Risen Too Rapidly?

8
3. Dwelling Prices Tracked Disposable Incomes 1:1 Last 7 Years
Australian Disposable Household Incomes vs.
Capital City and Rest of State Housing Costs
RP Data-Rismark Capital City Hedonic Dwelling Prices
RP Data-Rismark Rest of State Hedonic House Prices
ABS Disposable Household Incomes (per h/hold)
200

150

100

50

0
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Source: RP Data-Rismark 9
3. Jeremy Grantham is Wrong: the Price-to-Income Ratio is just 4.6x

• RBA: “the ratio of house prices to income is not that different from most other countries”
Rismark Australian All Regions Dwelling Price-to-Income Ratio Index:
Rismark All Regions Trimmed Mean Dwelling Price-to-Income Ratio
Rismark All Regions Median Dwelling Price-to-Income Ratio
8x
Jeremy Grantham (GMO)
7x

6x

5x

4x

3x

2x

1x

0x
Mar-93
Sep-93
Mar-94
Sep-94
Mar-95
Sep-95
Mar-96
Sep-96
Mar-97
Sep-97
Mar-98
Sep-98
Mar-99
Sep-99
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Source: Rismark; ABS; HIA 10
3. Inflation-Targeting Regime Drove Downward Shift in Nominal Rates

Australian Headline Mortgage Rates


18%

16%
RBA formally agrees 2-3%
14%
inflation target
12.6%
12%

10%

8%
7.3%
6%

4%

2%

0%
Jan-80
Jan-81
Jan-82
Jan-83
Jan-84
Jan-85
Jan-86
Jan-87
Jan-88
Jan-89
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Source: Rismark; RBA 11
4. International Comparisons

12
4. Australia Underperformed Between 2003 and 2006

Dwelling Price Growth since January 2000


Australia NZ UK US Canada
300

CAGRs
250
8.9%
7.8%
200 7.4%
6.9%
150 3.4%

100

50

0
Jan-00

Jul-00

Jan-01

Jul-01

Jan-02

Jul-02

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10
Source: RP Data-Rismark; NZ REI; Case-Shiller; Acadametrics; Teranet 13
4. Australia has Much Higher Urban Concentrations

Population Living in Urban Areas of Greater than 750,000 Persons


65%
61%
60%

55%

50% 48%
47%

45% 43%

40%

35%

30% 29% 29%

25%
Australia Japan United States Canada New Zealand United
Kingdom
Source: PRB 14
4. Australia has Much Higher Projected Population Growth Rate

Projected Population Change 2009-2050


60%
55%

50%
43%
40%

30% 27%
24% 24%

20%

10%

0%
Australia United States New Zealand Canada United Japan
Japan
Japan
-10% Kingdom

-20%

-25%
-30%
Source: PRB 15
4. Australian Population Growth Amongst Highest in Developed World

Population Growth Rates over the Last 11 Years (to end 2008)
Australia Canada New Zealand United Kingdom United States Japan
120

Aust.
115

110

105
Jap.

100

95

90
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Rismark; IMF 16
4. Substantially Stronger than US and UK

Annual Population Change (1999 to 2009)


Australia US UK
2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%
Sep-99
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Source: Rismark; US Census Bureau; Statistics UK 17
5. Were the Real Bubbles in Equities (shhh!)?

18
5. US Peak-to-Trough: Shares Fell by 52.6% vs. 32.6% for House Prices
Collapse of US Credit Creation System with Fannie, Freddie & FHA Funding c. 90% of Home
Loans
S&P500 Case-Shiller 20 City Composite
140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
Jan-06
Mar-06
May-06

Jul-06

Sep-06

Nov-06

Jan-07
Mar-07

May-07

Jul-07

Sep-07

Nov-07

Jan-08
Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09
Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-10
Mar-10

May-10
Source: Rismark; S&P 19
5. UK Peak-to-Trough: Shares Fell by 43.0% vs. 13.6% for House Prices
Partial Nationalisation of the UK Banking System with Extreme Residential Credit Rationing

FTSE 100 UK Academetrics House Prices


120

100

80

60

40

20

0
Sep-07

Nov-07

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

Jul-10
Source: Rismark; FTSE; Academetrics 20
5. Australia Peak-to-Trough: Shares Fell by 50.5% vs. 3.8% for House Prices
Australian Banking System Remains Secure with Positive Residential Credit Growth

S&P/ASX 200 RP Data-Rismark Dwelling Prices


140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
Sep-07

Nov-07

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10
Source: RP Data-Rismark; S&P 21
6. What is Happening to Aussie Housing Market Now?

22
6. After 6x Rate Increases, Vendors are Discounting Prices More…

Vendor Discounting from List Prices for Houses

Sydney Houses Melbourne Houses Brisbane Houses


0%
May-05
Aug-05
Nov-05
Feb-06
May-06
Aug-06
Nov-06
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
-1%

-2%

-3%

-4%

-5%

-6%

-7%

-8%

-9%

-10%

Source: RP Data; Rismark 23


6. Auction Clearance Rates have Declined but Now Stabilised

RP Data Australian Capital City Auction Clearance Rates

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Source: RP Data; Rismark 24
6. Inventories Across Australia have Risen a Little Higher

Australia-wide New Listings and Relistings of Dwellings


Relistings New Listings
200,000

180,000

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0
03/01/07
21/02/07
11/04/07
30/05/07
18/07/07
05/09/07
24/10/07
12/12/07
30/01/08
19/03/08
07/05/08
25/06/08
13/08/08
01/10/08
19/11/08
04/01/09
22/02/09
12/04/09
31/05/09
19/07/09
06/09/09
25/10/09
13/12/09
31/01/10
21/03/10
09/05/10
27/06/10
15/08/10
Source: RP Data; Rismark 25
6. Inventories Across Capital Cities Well Below 2008 Levels

Australia-wide New Listings and Relistings of Capital City Dwellings


Relistings New Listings
100,000

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0
03/01/07
28/02/07
25/04/07
20/06/07
15/08/07
10/10/07
05/12/07
30/01/08
26/03/08
21/05/08
16/07/08
10/09/08
05/11/08
31/12/08
22/02/09
19/04/09
14/06/09
09/08/09
04/10/09
29/11/09
24/01/10
21/03/10
16/05/10
11/07/10
Source: RP Data; Rismark 26
6. Capital City and Rest of State Dwelling Prices have Tapered (Shock!)

Australian Residential Price since January 2007

RP Data-Rismark Capital Cities Hedonic All Dwellings RP Data-Rismark Rest of State Hedonic Houses
130

125

120

115

110

105

100
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07

Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08

Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08

Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09

May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09

Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Source: RP Data-Rismark 27
6. Price Tapering Clear Across All Suburbs During Second Quarter

Performance of Australian Capital City Suburbs


(All Dwellings) Ranked by Price since December 2009

Bottom 20% of Suburbs Middle 60% of Suburbs Top 20% of Suburbs


109
108
107
106
105
104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10
Source: RP Data-Rismark 28
6. But Put it in Context…Capital Cities and Rest of State with Proper Scaling
Australian Residential Prices since January 2007

RP Data-Rismark Capital Cities Hedonic All Dwellings RP Data-Rismark Rest of State Hedonic Houses
140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07

Jul-07
Sep-07

Nov-07
Jan-08

Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08

Sep-08
Nov-08

Jan-09
Mar-09

May-09
Jul-09

Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10

Mar-10
May-10

Jul-10
Source: RP Data-Rismark 29
6. Same for Cheap, Middle and Expensive Suburbs
Performance of Australian Capital City Suburbs
(All Dwellings) Ranked by Price since December 2008
Bottom 20% of Suburbs Middle 60% of Suburbs Top 20% of Suburbs
140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

Jul-10
Source: RP Data-Rismark 30
6. Good News: Markets Think No More Rate Hikes (But is Market Wrong?)…

SFE Interbank Futures Implied Cash Rate

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%
Sep-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12
Source: Rismark; ASX 31
7. Solid Underlying Fundamentals

32
7. Big Divergence between Growth in Population and Growth in New Supply
New Building Approvals vs. Increase in Australia's Resident Population:
Quarterly Moving Annual Change

New Building Approvals Increase in Resident Population


500,000

450,000

400,000

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
Sep-84
Mar-85
Sep-85
Mar-86
Sep-86
Mar-87
Sep-87
Mar-88
Sep-88
Mar-89
Sep-89
Mar-90
Sep-90
Mar-91
Sep-91
Mar-92
Sep-92
Mar-93
Sep-93
Mar-94
Sep-94
Mar-95
Sep-95
Mar-96
Sep-96
Mar-97
Sep-97
Mar-98
Sep-98
Mar-99
Sep-99
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Source: Rismark; ABS 33
7. Treasury Expects c. 60% Increase in Resident Population by 2050

Change in ABS Population Projections

Series B (2008) Series B (2004)


50,000,000

45,000,000

40,000,000

Treasury IGR: 36m


35,000,000

30,000,000

25,000,000

20,000,000
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
2034
2038
2042
2046
2050
2054
2058
2062
2066
2070
2074
2078
2082
2086
2090
2094
2098
Source: Rismark; ABS 34
7. Demand-Supply Disconnect Drive Underlying Housing Shortage

ANZ Estimates for Australian Housing Demand and Housing Supply

Demand less Supply Underlying Supply Underlying Demand


500,000

400,000

300,000
Number of Dwellings

200,000

100,000

0
1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014
-100,000
Source: ANZ 35
8. How Vulnerable are Australian Borrowers?

36
8. Household Debt Not Unusually High

• RBA: “the current household debt ratio in Australia is similar to that in most developed countries”

Source: RBA

37
8. Three-Quarters of Debt Held by Top 2x Income Quintiles

• RBA: “The increased debt has mostly been taken on by households which are in the strongest
position to service it…the big increases in household debt over the past decade have been at the high
end of the income distribution”
• RBA: “Households in the top two income quintiles account for 75 per cent of all outstanding
household debt…households in the bottom two income quintiles account for only 10 per cent of
household debt”

Source: RBA

38
8. Australian Housing Leverage Less than Half US Levels

• RBA: Total gearing in the housing sector is just 29%, which is less than half US leverage
• RBA: Total household debt to household assets ratio is also less than 20%

Source: RBA
39
8. Change in Debt-to-Assets Ratios Function of Inflation-Targeting

Long-Term Australian Debt to Assets Ratios


Household Debt to Household Assets (LHS)
Housing Debt (Only) to Housing Assets (LHS)
Variable Mortgage Rates (RHS)
60% 20%

18%
50%
16%

14%
Debt to Assets Ratio

40%

Mortgage Rates
12%

30% 10%

8%
20%
6%

4%
10%
2%

0% 0%
Jun-77
Jun-78
Jun-79
Jun-80
Jun-81
Jun-82
Jun-83
Jun-84
Jun-85
Jun-86
Jun-87
Jun-88
Jun-89
Jun-90
Jun-91
Jun-92
Jun-93
Jun-94
Jun-95
Jun-96
Jun-97
Jun-98
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Source: Rismark; RBA 40
8. Australia Does have High Interest Rates (c. 85% Resi. Borrowers Variable)

Comparisons of Official Interest Rates

US Japan Euro Area UK Canada Australia

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%
Jan-00

Jul-00
Jan-01

Jul-01
Jan-02

Jul-02

Jan-03
Jul-03

Jan-04
Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05
Jan-06

Jul-06
Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08
Jul-08

Jan-09
Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10
Source: Rismark; RBA 41
8. But Consistently Very Low Mortgage Default Rates

RBA Estimates of Non-Performing Housing Loans


Australia** US** UK+ Spain Canada**+
9%
8.7%
8%

7%

6%
Per cent of Loans

5%

4%

3% 2.9%
2.4%
2%

1% 0.68%
0.45%
0%
Jan-90

Jan-91

Jan-92

Jan-93

Jan-94

Jan-95

Jan-96

Jan-97

Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10
Source: Rismark; RBA 42
8. System-Wide Household DSCR is Strong
Household Interest Repayments to Disposable Income
Total Interest Repayments to Disposable Household Income (LHS)
Mortgage Interest Repayments to Disposable Household Income (LHS)
Variable Mortgage Rates (RHS)
40% 20%
Interest Repayments to Disposable Income

35% 18%

16%
30%
14%

Mortgage Rates
25%
12%
Ratio

20% 10%

8%
15%
6%
10%
4%
5%
2%

0% 0%
Jun-77

Jun-79

Jun-81

Jun-83

Jun-85

Jun-87

Jun-89

Jun-91

Jun-93

Jun-95

Jun-97

Jun-99

Jun-01

Jun-03

Jun-05

Jun-07

Jun-09
Source: Rismark; RBA 43
8. Only Small Share of High Risk Borrowers

• RBA: Only ~2.5% of borrowers have LVR ≥ 90% AND repayments ≥ 50% disposable income
• RBA: Only ~3.5% have LVR ≥ 80% AND repayments ≥ 50% disposable income

Source: RBA 44
8. Australia has not Experienced Debt-Fuelled Property Boom since 2007
Growth in Australian Housing Credit Outstanding Very Low

Quarterly Change in Credit Outstanding Annualised


Six Monthly Change in Credit Outstanding Annualised
30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%
Feb-90
Aug-90
Feb-91
Aug-91
Feb-92
Aug-92
Feb-93
Aug-93
Feb-94
Aug-94
Feb-95
Aug-95
Feb-96
Aug-96
Feb-97
Aug-97
Feb-98
Aug-98
Feb-99
Aug-99
Feb-00
Aug-00
Feb-01
Aug-01
Feb-02
Aug-02
Feb-03
Aug-03
Feb-04
Aug-04
Feb-05
Aug-05
Feb-06
Aug-06
Feb-07
Aug-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-10
Source: Rismark; RBA 45
8. What Happened in 1991 Recession with Huge Spike in Unemployment?

What Happened During the 1991 Recession when


Unemployment Rose from 5.6% to 10.9% and Mortgage Rates Averaged 13.7%?
REIA ABS RP Data-Rismark Residex CBA/HIA
120

100

80

60

40

20

0
Dec-89

Feb-90

Apr-90

Jun-90

Aug-90

Oct-90

Dec-90

Feb-91

Apr-91

Jun-91

Aug-91

Oct-91

Dec-91

Feb-92

Apr-92

Jun-92

Aug-92

Oct-92

Dec-92
Source: RP Data-Rismark; ABS; Residex; REIA; CBA/HIA 46
9. What about China?

47
9. 40% of Labour Still Employed in Agriculture; Only 46.6% Urbanised

Urbanisation vs. Share of Labour Employed in Farming

Share of Urban Population Share of Labour Employed in Farming


100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: UBS 48
9. House Price-to-Income Ratios Look High; But also Low!

Chinese House Price-to-Income Ratios


House prices to average urban income House prices to home buyers income
12x

10x

8x

6x

4x

2x

0x
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: UBS; Rismark

49
9. Very Low Levels of Household Leverage

Household Debt as a Share of GDP


China US Korea
120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009
Source: UBS

50
9. Very Low Levels of Household Leverage
Household Debt as a Share of Disposable Income
China US Korea
180%

160%

140%

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009
Source: UBS

51
9. China 70-City New Houses Index has Underperformed since 2000

Average Monthly Annual House Price Growth: January 2000 to March 2010
10%
9.0%
9%
8.3% 8.2%
8%

7% 6.8%
5.9%
6%

5%
4.0%
4%
U
3%

2%

1%

0%
Australia NZ UK Canada China 70 City US
New
Source: UK (Academetrics, Composite Indices); US (Case-Shiller 20 City, Repeat-Sales); Canada (Teranet, Repeat-Sales); Australia (RP
Data-Rismark, Hedonic); NZ (REINZ, Stratified); China (National Bureau of Statistics)
52
9. China 70-City New/Estab. Houses Index have Not Outperformed since 2005

Average Monthly Annual House Price Growth: July 2005 to March 2010
8%
6.4% 6.3% 6.3%
6% 5.6% 5.4%

4%
2.5%
2%

0%
Canada Australia China 70 City China 70 City NZ UK UUS
US
New Established S
-2%

-4% -3.6%

-6%
Source: UK (Academetrics, Composite Indices); US (Case-Shiller 20 City, Repeat-Sales); Canada (Teranet, Repeat-Sales); Australia (RP
Data-Rismark, Hedonic); NZ (REINZ, Stratified); China (National Bureau of Statistics)
53
Important Notice, Confidentiality and Intellectual Property

Rismark International is an authorised representative of AFS Licensee 293881. Neither the presentation nor any summary or reconstituted form
of its informational contents may be copied, distributed or otherwise made available to any other person by any recipient without the written
consent of Rismark International. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the facts stated herein are accurate and that any opinions
contained herein are fair and reasonable, this document is selective in nature and is intended to provide an introduction to, and an overview of,
investment in EFMs. Where any information and statistics are quoted from any external source, such information or statistics should not be
interpreted as having been adopted or endorsed by Rismark International as being accurate. The facts and information contained herein are as
up to date as is reasonably possible and may be subject to revision in the future. Neither Rismark International nor any of its directors, officers,
employees or advisors nor any other person makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the
information contained in this presentation. Neither Rismark International nor any of its directors, officers, employees and advisors nor any other
person shall have any liability whatsoever for loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this presentation. All references to $
or dollars are to Australian dollars unless otherwise specified. This presentation does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for, or
purchase, any securities.

This presentation is strictly confidential. It contains descriptions of confidential intellectual property and business methods, processes, systems,
and technologies that are protected under pending and sealed patents owned by Rismark International or its related entities. This presentation is
only being made available to recipients who have signed and returned a Confidentiality Agreement and recipients are therefore bound by the
Confidentiality Agreement in respect of all information contained in this presentation. This presentation is confidential and must not be copied,
reproduced, distributed or passed (in whole or in part) to any other person at any time without the prior written consent of Rismark
International. This presentation contains references to several registered and pending trade marks, including RAPT, ARES, Rismark and EFM,
amongst others. It also makes references to proprietary business methods, processes, systems, and technologies that are either protected
intellectual property assets under Australian Innovation Patent No. 2005100 871, Australian Innovation Patent No. 2005100 869, Australian
Innovation Patent No. 2005100 868, Australian Innovation Patent No. 2005 100 867, Australian Innovation Patent No. 2005 100 865, and
Australian Innovation Patent No. 2005 100 864, or pending intellectual property assets covered in claims under European Patent No.
05256351.7, International Patent No. PCT/AU2005/001586, US Patent No. 11/248,253, and Australian Patent No. 2005 222 542. Rismark
International or entities related to Rismark International own these patents, trade marks and other intellectual property assets and reserve their
rights in relation to such. Unauthorised violation of these rights may result in civil action, including orders for damages, injunctions and accounts
of profits and claims will be actively pursued.

54

You might also like