February 27,

27 2017

Weekly Technical

Research Analysts
Dharmesh Shah dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com
Nitin Kunte, CMT nitin.kunte@icicisecurities.com
Dipesh Dagha dipesh.dagha@icicisecurities.com
Pabitro Mukherjee pabitro.mukherjee@icicisecurities.com
Vinayak Parmar vinayak parmar@icicisecurities com
vinayak.parmar@icicisecurities.com
 Faster retracement of 2016 fall; market eyeing life-time highs…
Equity benchmarks rallied for a fifth week in a row, scaling two-year highs and recorded highest ever weekly closing. The Sensex rose 424 points or 1.49% to 28892
while the Nifty rose 118 points or 1.33% to 8939. Broader markets underperformed the benchmarks as the BSE midcap and small cap indices rose ~0.80% each.
The weekly price action resulted in a sizable bull candle, which maintained a higher high higher low and surpassed the 2016 yearly high of 8968 in line with our
expectation before closing a tad below the same. The Nifty respected the lower boundary of the short-term rising channel and previous week’s bullish gap area
placed near 8800 region and ended higher on all four trading sessions of the truncated expiry week. Structurally the current up move has signalled a larger degree
bullish turnaround as the index has overhauled its four month decline from September to December 2016 (8968 to 7893) in just two months. Faster retracement of
the major falling segment highlights the inherent strength and resumption of bullish momentum carrying further bullish implications from a medium term
perspective. From a short term perspective, we believe the index is set to challenge its all-time high of 9119 recorded in March 2015 over the coming month.
• The current up move has confirmed a major structural turnaround, which augurs NSE Nifty Weekly Bar Chart
well for continuance of the broader uptrend, going forward. The faster 9119 (Life High)
retracement of the major corrective decline in 2016 is a sign of bulls taking 8968 8982
charge of the medium term trend. Another key observation in last weeks trade is
that the index has triggered a Golden Crossover as the Nifty’s 50 day simple
moving average (SMA) at 8451, rose higher than the 200 day SMA (8424). In 4 Month Fall
technical parlance, a golden crossover represents a major shift in the direction
implying
p y g a sustainable uptrend
p over the medium-term horizon
• The index has not closed below its previous weeks low for eight consecutive Retracement
weeks highlighting strong investor appetite and the bullish sentiment across the in 2 months
Street. In the entire up move since December 2016, the index has not incurred
any meaningful price wise correction as it has worked off overbought conditions 7927
on momentum oscillators by undergoing extended time wise consolidation Double Bottom near
7900 value area
highlighting the robust price structure. Going forward, we believe any
intermediate breather should be used as incremental buying opportunity as we
have now revised the immediate support threshold for the index upwards to
8800 region being the confluence of following: Resistance: 9050, 9119
¾ Last week’s low and bullish gap area formed on February 17, 2017 is placed Support: 8860, 8778
between 8804 and 8778
¾ Since the December 2016 bottom, the index has not seen a breather of
more than 135 points. Similar magnitude of cool-off from last weeks’ high MACD in rising trajectory signals strength in the price up move
(8982) projects support near 8848 region
• Among oscillators, the weekly MACD remains in a rising trajectory signalling
strength in the current up move. However, the placement of weekly stochastic in
overbought territory at reading of 92 warrants a round temporary consolidation Weekly stochastic at an overbought reading of 92 warrants consolidation
after five weeks rally
• Sectors: We expect the auto, IT and realty indices to outperform the benchmark
in the coming weeks. We believe the current consolidation in FMCG space
should
h ld be
b usedd as an incremental
i l buying
b i opportunity i

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

2
 Nifty Bank (20893): Challenging life-time highs…
• The Nifty Bank index extended the winning streak for a fifth consecutive week CNX Bank Nifty Weekly Candlestick Chart
led by private banking heavyweights that propelled the index past its previous
life-time high of 20934 to record a new life-time high of 21024 before finally
closing off the high point at 20893 up 371 points or 1.81% for the week 20934
20649
• The weekly price action formed a bigger bull candle compared to the previous
week as the index surpassed its 2015 life-time high of 20934 and also posted
its highest daily/weekly close. The index has not closed below its previous
weeks low on a weekly closing basis over the last eight weeks highlighting
1762 Pts
strong demand
d d at elevated
l d levels.
l l WeW expect the
h index
i d to remain i in
i a rising
i i
trajectory and head towards 21750 over the coming month. Only a decisive
close below previous weeks low (20492) will signal a temporary breather in 1680 Pts
the ongoing momentum leading to round of consolidation
• The formation of higher high and higher low on a yearly scale highlights the
17617
larger degree structural turnaround that opens up major positive implication
for the index from a medium term horizon. Since the December 2016 bottom,,
the two intermediate up move on the index have measured an average of
around 1700 points. The first leg of up move (17617 to 19297) measured 1680
points while the second leg of up move in January 2017 (18742 to 20504)
Resistance: 21200, 21430
measured 1762 points. We expect the current up move off recent higher
bottom of 20055 to replicate the extent of rally witnessed in preceding two Support: 20600, 20300
rising segments thereby projecting upsides towards 21750 levels over the
coming months
• We have now revised the immediate support threshold for the index upwards
20000 region as it is the confluence of following :
MACD remains in rising trajectory signaling strength in the breakout above all time highs
• Recent congestion area and previous two week’s identical lows area placed
near 20000 region
• Value of rising trendline drawn off December lows is also around 20100
• Bullish gap area formed on February 17, 2016 is placed around 20285 Stochastic in highly overbought territory warrants consolidation

• Among oscillators, the weekly MACD remains in rising trajectory and is

diverging from its nine period average signalling strength in the current up
move. However, the placement of stochastic oscillator in overbought territory
with a reading of 89 warrants a round of consolidation, going forward

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

3
Trend Scanner
Deal Team – At Your Service
Positive Trends Candlestick Pattern
Scrip Name Close 50 days EMA 100 days EMA Delivery % 5 days Averge Bullish Candlestick Formations Bearish Candlestick Formations
Asian Paints 1,009.0 970.0 984.0 64.50 Scrip Name Pattern name LTP Scrip Name Pattern name LTP
Jk Tyre 120.6 121.0 121.0 40.46 Granules Piercing Line 128.8 GPPL Evening Star 155.6
Coal India 327.7 314.0 313.0 55.82 Tata Steel Engulfing 485.8 Ambuja Cement Evening Star 232.8
Tata Steel 485.8 452.0 429.0 30.41 Coal India Continuation 327.7 Infratel Continuation 297.9
Apollo Hospital Continuation 1323 6
1323.6
Reliance Continuation 1182.8
Raymond Engulfing 558.9
Negative Trends Apollo Tyre Engulfing 184.5
Scrip Name Close 50 days EMA 100 days EMA Delivery % 5 days Averge HDFC Bank Continuation 1394.3
Infratel 297.9 342.0 330.0 65.25
UBL 786 1
786.1 808 0
808.0 820 0
820.0 40 10
40.10

Legend
Positive and Negative Trends:
The stocks listed in the positive and negative trends section above have been identified after running multiple technical queries based on combination of
various technical parameters applied on a group of NSE cash stocks. The query modules are designed to recognise stocks, which are either at attractive
technical entry levels based on overall price structure or resolving out of medium term consolidation. Consequently the query modules are also aimed at
identifying the stocks which are under performers or in established down trends and therefore may not be good bets from short to medium term perspective.
Candlestick patterns:
Candlestick formations on weekly time interval charts typically point towards the prevailing sentiment comprising the entire trading week and could prove as
an important tool for short term traders. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More
importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend. A more detailed description of Candlestick patterns and the way to
understand them is listed at the end of the report

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

4
Market Activity
Gl b l Markets
Global M k ts Domestic Sectoral Indices Performance
3,253.4 20,821.8 INDICES Current 1Wk 1M 3M
China US
1.6% 1.0% Sensex 28892.97 1.5 4.4 11.2
11,804.0 19,283.5 Nifty 8939.50 1.3 4.3 11.6
Germany Japan
0.4% 0.3% Auto 21753.86 0.8 -0.2 11.2
23,965.7 4,845.2 Banking 23825.17 1.6 6.7 12.1
Hong
g Kong
g France Capital goods 15336 73
15336.73 03
0.3 34
3.4 13 3
13.3
-0.3% -0.5%
7,243.7 66,662.1 Cons durables 13731.84 2.1 9.7 29.8
UK Brazil FMCG 8839.94 0.1 3.1 12.9
-0.8% -1.6%
Healthcare 15341.9 0.1 2.3 1.6
IT 10378.56 1.4 5.1 12.5
Metal 11875.2 2.3 0.3 18.2
Global Currencies, Commodities & Bond Yields Oil & ggas 13624.39 3.3 2.8 15.8
66.83 101.09 Power 2204.83 -0.6 3.7 16.1
Rupee (|) Dollar Index
0.3% 0.1% Realty 1476.5 1.6 7.0 21.1
BSE 500 12212.8 1.2 5.9 12.9
1.06 1.24
Euro British Pound BSE midcap 13532.11 0.8 3.9 13.5
-0.3% 0.1%
BSE small cap 13587.78 0.9 3.8 16.7
111.96 1.01
Japanese Yen Swiss Franc
-1.0%
1 0% 0 3%
0.3%

Gold/ounce
1,258.46
Copper (tonne)
5,915.00 Nifty Gainers / Losers for the week (%)
2.0% -0.5%
20.0
56.00 18.4 12.9
Brent Crude/barrel Silver (ounce) 10.0
10.0 8.0
0.5% 2.5% 5.7
-1.9 -2.5 -2.6 -3.2
0.0
6.91 2.32
I di 10 year
India US 10 Year
Y -10.0
6 bps -9.1 bps
-20.0
0.18 0.05

RELIANCE

AMBUJACEM
AXISBANK

INFRATEL
NTPC
BPCL
IDEA

ACC
EURO 10 Year JPY 10 Year
-11.7 bps -3.1 bps

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

5
Market Activity
Deal Team – At Your Service
Institutional flow trends of last 12 months

FII DII Sensex

20,000 30000.00

9359
10,000 25000.00

211143

122612

88106
22543

1521
4980

100443
84416

99900
90071
37713

65547

47777
6998
248
4
0 20000.00

-23
-273
-5521

-86
-8195

-16892

-18244
-4306

-1177
-8176
-10,000 15000.00

-20,000 10000.00

May'16

Nov'16
Mar'16

Apr'16

Aug'16
Feb'16

Feb'17
Jan'17
JJuly'16

Sep'16

Dec'16
JJune'16

Oct'16
M

A
Months

Weekly market breadth trends

Advance % Decline % Sensex

28469 28893
80% 27035 27882 28241 28334 29000
26759 27238
26626 27500
60% 26000
Perccentage

24500
40% 23000
21500
20% 20000
58%
42%

63%
37%

55%
45%

51%
49%

57%
43%

53%
47%

53%
47%

46%
54%

51%
49%
18500
0% 17000
30-Dec-16 6-Jan-17 13-Jan-17 20-Jan-17 27-Jan-17 3-Feb-17 10-Feb-17 17-Feb-17 24-Feb-17

Week Ended

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

6
Dow Jones (20821): BiasDeal Team
to remain – At Your
positive aboveService
20270...
• US equity benchmarks continued their record Dow Jones Industrials - Weekly Bar Chart
setting streak extending the gains for a third week in
a row ahead of the President’s first major address
to the Congress next week. The DJIA settled at Index headed for 21000 levels, looks overbought
20821, up 0.97% or 197 points for the week
• The weekly price action formed a relatively smaller
bullish bar with rising high-lowhigh low signalling
continuation of bullish trend. In the coming week,
the bias will remain positive above last week’s low
of 20663
• The index has gained over 10% since the US 18668
President’s election in November 2016 in
18351
anticipation of fiscal stimulus and tax reforms. In the 18167
process, prices have reached overbought
conditions and may result in profit booking in the
short-term. However, the bias remains positive with 17883
an extended target of 21000 as it is the equality of
February–July 2016 rally (18622-15503) as projected 17063
from November 2016 lows of 17883
• The bias for the short
short-term
term remains positive above
last week’s low of 20663. Only a decisive break 52 Week EMA
below 20663 would signal extended consolidation
15503
• The 14 week RSI is seen trending higher supporting
overall positive bias
• For the coming week, the DJIA has support at
20660,, 20490 while resistance is at 21000,, 21170

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

7
 Deal Teamto –extend...
German Dax (11804): Consolidation At Your Service
• The German equity benchmark eked out marginal German Dax - Weekly Bar Chart
gains after a range bound week amid rising Index headed for 12390 levels in the short term
concerns about the EU stability post Brexit. The Dax
closed at 11804, up 47 points or 0.40% for the week
• The weekly price action formed a small bodied bear 12390
candle with larger upper shadow indicating profit
booking near 12000 mark. It, however, carries a 11618
higher high-low with a trading range (11400-12000)
for a fifth week in a row 11430
• The index is seen consolidating gains in a 600
points range over past five weeks thereby working
out of overbought conditions. The shallow price
correction, however, appears healthy for ongoing
bullish trend
• Going forward, a decisive break above 12000 would
lead the index to its life-time high of 12390. Key
short-term support is placed at the lower band of
ongoing consolidation (12000-11400 levels) 9325
9214
• For the coming week, the Dax has support at 11650,
52 Week EMA
11530 while resistance is placed at 11870,
11870 12050 8700
8354

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

8
 Deal Team
Rupee spot (66.83): Consolidation – At Your Service
to continue...
• The rupee continued its winning streak amid Weekly Bar Chart
overseas dollar weakness despite foreign investors
pulling out of domestic equities. Domestic currency
ended at 66.83, up 19 bps against the US dollar for August 2013
the week @ 68.8450 20 weeks 68.79
• The price action formed a small bearish bar while | 4.1 68.86
rupee continued to trade in tight range.
range It,
It however,
however 68.21
maintains a positive bias for the rupee below 67.50
66.89
• In the coming weeks, the rupee is expected to take Gap @ 65.25- 64.53
32 weeks
a breather after strong gains early during February | 5.59
2017. However, the overall bias for the rupee
remains positive and is likely too head towards key
resistance at 66.30 over the medium term
29 weeks
k 63 88
63.88 Bullish Gap @
• From a short-term perspective, the rupee is 64.70 65.76-65.90
|5.55
expected to find key support at 67.50 that is
February 2017 high
• The 14 week RSI remains trapped in a range
indicating non directional bias in the short-term
61.30
• For the coming week, the US$INR support is at
66.70, 66.50 whereas resistances are at 67.00, 67.30

May 2014
@ 58.33

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

9
Gold ($1258.30): HeadingDeal Team
towards – At
$1300 in Your Service
short-term…
• Gold prices resumed upward momentum. They Gold Weekly Candlestick Chart
extended gains for a fourth week in a row after the 200 Week EMA @ $1280
minutes of most recent Fed meeting showed policy 1374 Falling Trendline @ $1300
makers expect to raise rates fairly soon but possibly
not until May or June instead of March 200 week EMA 1338
• The weekly price action formed a bigger bull candle
compared
co pa ed to tthe e p
previous
e ous ttwoo weeks
ee s ssignalling
g a g
continuance of the upward momentum as the bullion
prices attracted support at the lower band of the
short-term rising channel encompassing the up move
since December 2016 till date. The immediate bias
will remain positive so long as bullion prices protect
the lower band of rising channel at the $1225 region
on a weeklyy closing
g basis
• We expect bullion prices to extend the current up
move and gradually inch towards the key overhead
hurdle placed around $1300 region over the coming
month as it is the confluence of following:
¾ Long term 200 week EMA is placed around $1280
¾ Overhead falling trendline joining July and
November 2016 highs is placed around $1300
¾ 80% retracement of the November-December fall RSI remains in rising trajectory supporting continuance of the up move
is near $1290 region
• Among oscillators, the weekly RSI remains in rising
trajectory and is seen diverging from its nine period
average suggesting strength in the current up move. Weekly Stochastic is poised in overbought territory
However, placement of short-term stochastic in th
eoverbought territory with a reading of 98 warrants a
round of consolidation in the coming weeks

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

10
 Deal Team
Brent crude ($56.33): Rudderless – At Your
consolidation Service
continues…
• Brent crude oil prices rose marginally higher after the Brent Crude Weekly Candlestick Chart
US Energy Information Agency reported a 600,000-
barrel build in domestic crude oil inventories, which
was smaller than Street expectations
• The overall price action over the last three months Trend remains range bound. Brent crude to
continues to remain rudderless between the broad extend consolidation between $53 to $58 levels
range of $58
$58-$53.
$53. We believe a directional move will
emerge on a decisive weekly close above $58. Until 69
then the choppy consolidation will continue
• The entire consolidation over last three months has
occurred above the breakout area ($52) amid lack of
follow through momentum. The immediate bias
would remain in favour of bulls as long as the
b k t area off $52 is
breakout i protected
t t d on intermediate
i t di t 54 50
54.50
54
declines. Only a decisive close below $52 would result
in reversal of the trend
• We believe a decisive close above the upper band of
three month congestion range above $58 will open 45
further upsides towards $62 zone over the medium
42
term. The 80% retracement of the entire fall from May 42
2015 high of $69 to January 2016 low of $27 is placed
around $62 region while the measuring implication of
the preceding six month consolidation breakout is
also placed around $64 levels
• Among oscillators, the 14 week RSI remains
ambivalent of directional bias as it is trudging 27
sideways between neutral reading of 60 to 45 levels
suggesting continuance of rudderless consolidation
on price front

RSI remains ambivalent of directional bias signalling continuance of consolidation

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

11
Previous Week’s Performance
Deal Team – At Your Service
Date Scrip Product Strategy RP Target SL Gain/Loss % Comment
27-Jan-17 Voltas Cash Buy 326.00 366.00 308.00 12.0 Target price achieved
17-Feb-17 Pidilite Industries Cash Buy 682.00 765.00 638.00 Open

F&O Stocks Pivot points for the Week (February 27 – March 03, 2017)
COMPANY CMP S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 Trend
SENSEX 28892.97 28842.75 28681.25 28519.70 29165.75 29321.75 29477.80 +ve
BANK NIFTY FUTURE 20893.65 20848.55 20715.45 20582.40 21114.75 21303.25 21491.80 +ve
NIFTY FUTURE 8942 15
8942.15 8926 90
8926.90 8883 70
8883.70 8840 45
8840.45 9013 35
9013.35 9049 75
9049.75 9086 10
9086.10 +ve
BANK NIFTY 20876.65 20831.80 20696.95 20562.05 21101.55 21340.10 21578.65 +ve
NIFTY 8939.50 8925.00 8881.90 8838.80 9011.15 9057.05 9102.95 +ve
ACC 1438.10 1418.05 1401.25 1384.45 1443.05 1455.55 1468.00 -ve
ADANI PORT 297.25 295.90 293.20 287.75 301.25 303.90 309.40 Neutral
AMBUJA CEMENT 232.00 228.25 226.00 223.80 233.40 236.00 238.60 -ve
ASIAN PAINTS 1009.00 1003.30 984.25 965.25 1041.40 1052.50 1063.60 +ve
AUROBINDO PHARMA 666.25 662.25 653.60 639.75 679.65 688.35 702.15 Neutral
AXIS BANK 528.15 520.35 507.80 495.20 545.55 551.00 556.50 +ve
BAJAJ AUTO 2814.10 2807.55 2792.55 2777.50 2837.55 2854.05 2870.55 +ve
BOB 168.15 168.05 166.55 165.10 171.00 177.30 183.65 +ve
BPCL 717 65
717.65 712 05
712.05 701 65
701.65 691 25
691.25 732 85
732.85 747 35
747.35 761 85
761.85 +ve
BHARTI AIRTEL 366.25 349.90 345.10 340.35 370.85 381.35 391.80 -ve
BHEL 153.45 151.05 148.75 146.40 153.95 155.40 156.85 -ve
BHARTI INFRATEL 297.90 291.25 285.85 280.40 299.35 303.40 307.40 -ve
BOSCH 21990.90 21800.10 21618.55 21331.20 22163.15 22344.65 22632.05 Neutral
CIPLA 592.40 587.60 583.70 577.35 595.50 599.45 605.75 Neutral

Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

12
F&O stocks pivot points for the week (February 27 – March 03, 2017)
COMPANY CMP S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 Trend
COAL INDIA 327.70 326.15 321.70 317.20 335.10 338.50 341.85 +ve
DR.REDDY'S LAB. 2887.40 2863.25 2815.90 2768.60 2893.30 2908.30 2923.35 -ve
EICHER MOTORS 24877.70 24583.00 24198.75 23814.55 24929.60 25102.90 25276.20 -ve
GAIL 517.55 508.25 498.85 489.50 518.55 523.70 528.85 -ve
GRASIM 1024.90 1003.50 991.60 979.70 1032.65 1047.25 1061.85 -ve
HCL TECH 842.85 835.90 827.25 820.00 853.10 861.70 868.95 Neutral
HDFC 1385.70 1370.80 1355.80 1340.80 1389.30 1398.55 1407.80 -ve
HERO MOTO 3176.75 3164.45 3134.50 3104.55 3224.35 3282.00 3339.65 +ve
HINDALCO 182.10 178.50 176.40 174.35 182.40 184.35 186.30 -ve
HIND. UNILEVER 858.25 852.60 846.50 837.30 864.90 871.00 880.20 Neutral
IDEA CELLULAR 119.60 117.90 113.95 110.00 125.80 128.60 131.40 +ve
INDUSIND BANK 1340.75 1332.30 1325.80 1311.60 1345.35 1351.85 1366.05 Neutral
INFOSYS 1008.85 997.65 986.50 973.75 1019.95 1031.10 1043.85 Neutral
ITC 265.65 263.40 261.55 258.50 267.10 268.95 272.05 Neutral
KOTAK MAH.BANK 810.95 808.20 802.40 796.55 819.85 827.90 835.90 +ve
L&T 1486.60 1477.30 1467.85 1455.90 1496.20 1505.65 1517.65 Neutral
LUPIN 1450.00 1437.90 1424.30 1410.75 1453.45 1461.25 1469.05 -ve
M&M 1304.85 1291.40 1278.35 1265.30 1306.40 1313.90 1321.45 -ve
MARUTI SUZUKI 6031.00 6026.20 5974.05 5921.95 6130.40 6204.85 6279.25 +ve
NTPC 165.50 161.70 160.50 159.30 166.70 169.15 171.65 -ve
ONGC 196.00 195.80 194.25 192.65 198.90 200.65 202.40 +ve
POWER GRID 199.15 195.50 194.30 193.05 200.65 203.25 205.85 -ve
RELIANCE 1182.75 1169.90 1131.05 1092.15 1247.65 1261.70 1275.75 +ve
SBI 270.45 269.10 267.40 264.60 272.45 274.10 276.90 Neutral
SUN PHARMA 674.55 668.65 662.75 648.60 680.45 686.40 700.50 Neutral
TATA MOTOR DVR 280.95 278.00 275.05 261.60 283.85 286.80 300.25 Neutral
TATA MOTORS 462.35 460.85 456.40 452.00 469.70 489.30 508.90 +ve
TATA POWER 83.45 82.30 81.35 80.35 83.80 84.55 85.30 -ve
TCS 2481.80 2480.40 2441.70 2402.95 2557.80 2583.55 2609.25 +ve
TECH MAHINDRA 503.65 499.90 495.35 489.70 509.05 513.60 519.20 Neutral
TATA STEEL 485.75 483.95 476.15 468.35 499.50 504.85 510.20 +ve
ULTRATECH CEMENT 3786.10 3772.85 3743.50 3714.15 3831.55 3873.15 3914.75 +ve
WIPRO 486.10 484.00 479.20 474.45 493.50 497.60 501.70 +ve
YES BANK 1446.75 1436.05 1427.25 1411.80 1453.60 1462.40 1477.85 Neutral
ZEE 518.55 509.80 505.25 500.70 519.95 525.00 530.10 -ve

Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

13
Forthcoming Economic Events Calendar
Deal Team – At Your Service
Date Event
India
2-Mar Nikkei India MFG, Services and Composite PMI
Japan
28-Feb Industrial Production MoM and YoY, Retail Trade and Sales, Vehicle Production, Housing Starts
1M
1-Mar C it l S
Capital Spending,
di Nikk
Nikkeii JJapan PMI Mf
Mfg andd V
Vehicle
hi l SSales
l
3-Mar Jobless Rate, Job to Application Ratio, Natl CPI YoY and Tokyo CPI YoY
US
27-Feb Durable Goods Orders, Durable Ex Transport, Capital Goods Orders and Pending Home Sales
28-Feb GDP Annualized QoQ, Personal Consumption, GDP Price Index, Core PCE QoQ, Wholesale Inventories
1 Mar
1-Mar MBA Mortgage Applications,
Applications Personal Income and Spending
Spending, PCE Core MoM and YoY
1-Mar Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spendings
2-Mar Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
Euro Zone
27-Feb M3 Money Supply, Consumer Confidence
28 Feb
28-Feb CPI Estimate,
Estimate CPI Core
2-Mar PPI MoM and YoY, Unemployment Rate, Markit Eurozone Services, Composite PMI and Retail Sales
UK
28-Feb Nationwide House PX MoM
1-Mar Markit UK PMI Manufacturing
1 Mar
1-Mar Mortgage Approvals
3-Mar Markit/CIPS UK Services, Composite PMI and Official Reserves Changes

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

14
Notes
Deal Team – At Your Service
• Please
Pl execute the
h recommendation
d i within
i hi the
h prescribed
ib d range provided
id d in
i the
h report

• Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing basis

• We adapt a trading strategy of booking 50% profit when the position is in profit by 3-5% and trail stop loss on remaining position to the
entry point

• In recommendations where it is advised to buy on declines, if the target price is hit before activation of the call in prescribed range then the
recommendation is considered not initiated

• The recommendations are valid only for the week and are to be squared off by the end of the week. In case we intend to carry forward the
position, it will be communicated through separate mail

Trading Portfolio allocation

• It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products

• Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment

• Within
Withi each
h product
d t segmentt it is
i advisable
d i bl tot allocate
ll t equall amountt to
t each
h recommendation
d ti

• For example: The ‘Daily Calls’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each
recommendation

15
Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation
Allocations Return Objective
Product Product wise Max allocation in Number of Calls Duration
Frontline Stocks Mid Cap Stocks
allocation 1 Stock

Daily Calls 8% 2-3% 3-4 Stocks 0.5-1% 2-3% Intraday

Stocks on the Move 6% 3-5% 7-10 Per Months 7-10% 10-15% 3 Months

Weekly Calls 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week

Weekly Technicals 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week

Monthly Call 15% 5% 2-3 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month

Monthly Technical 15% 2-4% 5-8 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month

Techno Funda 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 6 Months

Gladiator Stocks 15% 5 10%

5-10% 1 2 Stocks
1-2 15% and above 20% and above 6 Months

Cash 10% -
100%

16
Candlesticks Glossary:
Deal Team – At Your Service
Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period.
period Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and,
and therefore,
therefore are
important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importance
needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend
Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in complete
charge. The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of the morning
star visually displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support
Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern.
pattern This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend.
downtrend The market falls,
falls and a
black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior session’s black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term
support for prices
Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next session’s open but that
session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to
as technical support for prices
Hammer: A candlestick line which,
which during a downtrend,
downtrend has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session
session’ss
range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of
prices above head of the Hammer in following session
Evening Star: Potential Top reversal pattern made of three candle lines. Comparable with a traffic signal. First white candle reflects a market in bullish trend.
The next candle line--the small real body—warns waning momentum. The black candle that completes the evening star visually exhibits that prior up trend has
stopped or reversed
Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal.
signal This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally.
rally A black candle real body wraps around a white real
body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference
Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second session’s price opens over
the prior session’s high (or above the prior session’s close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the
prior session’s white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately
Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a very
long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead
Continuation Patterns: Other than widely known Candlestick reversal patterns discussed above, there are numerous patterns mentioned in literature on
Candlestick which describe the continuation of existing sentiments i.e. bullish or bearish. We have refrained from mentioning names of these patterns to avoid
confusion. However, the remark Continuation Pattern refers to bullish or bearish candlestick patterns which suggest continuation of existing trend

17
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com
Disclaimer
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I,
/I Dharmesh Shah,
Shah Dipesh Dagha,
Dagha Nitin Kunte,
Kunte Pabitro Mukherjee,
Mukherjee Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts,
Analysts authors and the names subscribed to
this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or
securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or
view(s) in this report.
Terms & conditions and other disclosures:
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brokering g and distribution of financial p
products. ICICI Securities Limited is a SEBI registered
g Research Analyst
y with SEBI Registration
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We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our
Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from
maintaining
i i i a financial
fi i l interest
i i the
in h securities
i i or derivatives
d i i off any companies
i that
h theh analysts
l cover.
The information and opinions in this section have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and
information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to,
copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI
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rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable
regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in
certain other circumstances.
The research recommendations are based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent
verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. These research recommendations and information herein is solely for
informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or
other financial instruments. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving these recommendations. Nothing in
this section constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate
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their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be
taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks.
The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities
accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of these recommendations. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance.
performance Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before
investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not
predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

19
Disclaimer
ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been
mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities
Sec ities or
o its associates might
ight have
ha e received
ecei ed any
a co pe satio from
compensation f o the companies
co pa ies mentioned
e tio ed herein
he ei during
d i g the period
pe iod preceding
p ecedi g
twelve months from the date of these recommendations for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance,
investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant
banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned herein in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI
Securities or its associates or its Analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third
party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have
any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this reports.
It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee and Vinayak Parmar, Research Analysts giving these
recommendations have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned herein in the preceding twelve months.
Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions
ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the
company/companies
/ i mentioned
i d herein
h i as off theh last
l d off the
day h month h preceding
di the
h publication
bli i off these
h research
h recommendations.
d i
Since Associates (ICICI group companies) of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial
interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned herein.
It is confirmed that Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee or advisory board member of the companies mentioned
herein.
ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented herein.
Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned herein.herein
We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis
activities.
This report or recommendations are not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or
located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law,
regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities
described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this
document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

20