2010 Draft Plan

by John Hansen
Publisher, FantasyGuru.com

As usual, a wise draft plan entails understanding the nuances of each position and how they relate to
each other and getting the most value for your picks. It’s about knowing which players to target and
when. Being flexible always helps, and finding the right combination of reliable and upside picks is
usually ideal. Of course, as always, readers need to consider factors such as their scoring system and
league setup, the level and tendencies of their competition, and anything else that could screw up the
2010 championship plan.

Here’s how I’m approaching each position right now. Flexibility is a big key.

The Quarterback Plan

For years, in the “Expert” leagues I participate in, players like Peyton Manning would remain on the
board far too long. Pick after pick after pick, the Mannings of the world would stay on the board, simply
because people in these leagues refused to take a QB too early. That strategy often resulted in teams
taking shaky RBs with issues over a sure thing like Manning. That wasn’t a tragedy in the past, and even
my own teams were able to excel despite my implementing the same strategy because, while a poor
early pick might have put me behind the 8-ball, I was able to make up ground elsewhere. But that’s not
as easy to do now. I still don’t want to take a QB in the 1st round because I put a great value on the
clear studs at the RB and WR positions, but after that, the QBs are officially in play for me.

So this year, when I’m drafting in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, I’m not going to rule out taking a QB. It makes
too much sense in this day and age. It’s clear the position is keying offensive attacks more than ever,
and the ridiculous numbers put up in 2009 by lower-end guys like Eli Manning and even Brett Favre
drive that point home. Not only that, but it’s silly to invest such a high pick in a player like Jamaal
Charles in the second round because it’s just not a smart investment. I love Charles’ ability, and he
could certainly come through for you, but why risk it that high? If you draft Charles over a top-flight QB,
you’re going to have to hope he comes through, as opposed drafting a guy like (Peyton) Manning, who is
as sure a thing as there is in pro sports – so you know he’s going to come through. You just want to try
to eliminate as much doubt as possible, and with Thomas Jones there now and with Charles not exactly
being proven, there is some doubt. Not only that, but since there are so many viable RBs in the player
pool this year, the odds are decent you can get a guy just a notch below Charles later. It’s harder than
ever to recover from a bad pick in the first few rounds, so if I’m staring a shakier RB like Charles in the
face, say earlier in the 2nd round, and Drew Brees is still there, taking Brees is a safe play. Since there
are so many players who could come through – but are far from locks, thus they will go later in drafts –
my goal early in drafts is simply to collect as many impact players as possible to build my team around,
and a QB is a fine foundation for that.

However, and this is an important point and why I used the word flexibility at the top of this article.
Ideally, I do want to hold off a little on the position. Last year, my two favorite guys to target after the
first 2-3 studs (Manning, Brees, and Tom Brady) were off the board were Aaron Rodgers and Philip
Rivers, and those two worked out well. There is excellent depth at the position this year, so if I
somehow find some seriously high quality RBs/WRs/ TEs falling to me in the first 3-5 rounds, I will
snatch them up, and then I’ll take advantage of the impressive depth at the position and take it from
there. So I’m not exactly locked into taking a QB in the first 2-3 rounds (unless the league is 6 points for
passing TDs and like 6-8 guys typically go in the top 20 or so).

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So again, I’m ruling out the position in the first round because I definitely see 12-14 extremely high
quality RBs/WRs, but after that, players like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning are
fair game. I see nothing wrong with investing a 2nd-round pick in one of those players, especially if
you’re a little stuck and don’t see a no-brainer RB or WR. If I don’t get one of three studs, I’m really
warming up to Tom Brady anywhere from late in the 2nd and (ideally) early in the 3rd. Or, I can take a
calculated risk and hope a nice option like Tony Romo falls to like the 4th round. But again, if there are
still quality RBs/WRs on the board, I may wait even longer because an option like Matt Schaub is pretty
appealing to me in and around the 5th round of a 10 or 12-team draft (and Brett Favre, too, if he
returns). As for Philip Rivers, he’s in this realm as well, but I’m concerned about his WR situation with
Vincent Jackson out at least three games and possibly much more.

I have to say, in today’s NFL environment, drafting one of the first six QBs mentioned above is probably
a really safe play. They all look very good on paper and are coming off nice seasons. They should be
money in the bank. If you take a chance that one of these guys will slip further and lose, however, all is
not lost. In fact, I still do maintain that your best chance to form a devastating team is probably waiting
on the QB and passing on all these guys – but that does also create more downside.

But I definitely like the combination of value and statistical potential for Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb,
Carson Palmer, and Joe Flacco. Their ADPs are all on the rise, but most will be available in the 7th-9th
rounds. I like all four a lot, but if you’re going to roll with one of these guys as your starter, you had
better have built a tremendous foundation around them, just in case they slip up. If I do take one of
these appealing-but-shakier options, I may be inclined to protect myself by taking a rock-solid backup,
like an Eli Manning or Matt Ryan (or any of the other four above). Each of these guys is capable of
producing at a starter’s level in 2010, as Manning did in 2009, so they offer solid protection if you do opt
to take a lower-end starter.

If not, there are some decent backup choices, and depending on how I felt my team was shaping up, I
could go with a more proven guy who may have minimal upside, like Donovan McNabb or Vince
Young. Or, if I’m feeling strong and want to be aggressive, I could roll one of the emerging young
players at the position, like Matthew Stafford or Chad Henne. Ben Roethlisberger is also an option,
of course, and he might be a savvy pick if he falls too far, since he’s certainly capable of putting up
starter’s numbers once he returns from his suspension (which, by the way seems destined to by only
four games as of early August). Otherwise, I’m actually kind of feeling Matt Cassel as a guy you can
get ridiculously late (even 200+) but who could be a top-20 guy. Mark Sanchez and Alex Smith at
least have a smidge of upside, while David Garrard and Jason Campbell are certainly also in play.
They don’t excite me too much, but the final numbers will likely once again be there and in the top-20.
If I had to, I’d look at Matt Leinart and Matt Hasselbeck, since arguments can be made that they will
go down as decent backups in 2010.

The Running Back Plan

First of all, as we’ve learned over the last couple of seasons, no one should be locked into taking a RB
with one’s first pick, especially later in the 1st round. However, with some of the stud wideouts having
some issues going into 2010 – Larry Fitzgerald’s new QB and Reggie Wayne’s team having a ton of
other options these days – I will prefer to take a back with my first pick. There are fewer and fewer true
featured backs right now, so if I get a crack at one, I’m going to take him. That’s why I’m okay with a
guy like Rashard Mendenhall and even rookie Ryan Mathews in the 1st round. That’s a little ballsy
(and we don’t have Mathews ranked that high overall because he’ll likely be available in the 2 nd), but
those two guys will get the rock, and they’re talented enough to do really well. Of course, taking
Mathews that early is probably way over the top, given his ADP, which is around 19, so I probably
wouldn’t take him that high. But he fits the profile of a RB who merits a #1 pick. Otherwise, I view the
following backs as viable #1 picks: Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray
Rice, Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, and Mendenhall. The first five guys are slam-
dunks, even Turner in a PPR (I’m that high on him this year).

The players in the next group are viable anywhere from very late in the 1 st to anywhere in the 2nd:
Rashard Mendenhall, DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Mathews, Cedric Benson, and Shonn Greene. I
wouldn’t feel great about any other RB in the 2nd.

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Last Update: 8/18/10
Regardless of how important and productive the QBs have been lately, I really do want at least one of
these RBs on my team this year.

If I roll with an Andre Johnson in the 1st and acquiring one of the aforementioned runners isn’t
possible, then I’ll have to do well and draft a sleeper or two at RB – and I might be inclined to play
things aggressively with a Beanie Wells, Jonathan Stewart, or a Jamaal Charles (JC, ideally, in a
PPR) in an effort to catch up. As much as everyone has downgraded the RBs lately, I do want at least
one stud I can hang my lid on. Ryan Grant is certainly more than serviceable, of course, and LeSean
McCoy and Pierre Thomas are good PPR guys.

Things do fall off from there, however, which is why I want to get at least one of the options mentioned
above, and it would be great to get two of them.

Not including some players who don’t really do it for me (Joseph Addai, Ronnie Brown, and
Knowshon Moreno, thanks to his injury), I’m next up going to focus on some of the solid options
who’ll slip a few rounds, perhaps down to the 5th through 7th or 8th rounds, players like Felix Jones,
Marion Barber, Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Clinton Portis, Fred Jackson, Ricky Williams, Jahvid
Best, and Montario Hardesty. I don’t feel great about all these players, but they are at least
affordable. I do still like the potential of Jones, Slaton, Jackson, Best, and Hardesty. These are all great
flex starters or acceptable #2 RBs if you’re loaded elsewhere.

As you might be able to see, there’s some solid depth in the middle rounds these days at RB, so I’m
probably not going to load up on the position early. A pair of RBs the first five rounds is fine, but I don’t
see any sense in stockpiling backs because you might end up with too many good ones – and, of course,
not enough good receivers.

Other options include solid complementary players in good situations like Ahmad Bradshaw, Donald
Brown, Chester Taylor, and Reggie Bush. And then you still have a few guys who could be money for
their teams and great values, like Jerome Harrison, Michael Bush, and Justin Forsett.

You also have older guys who should be very active for your depth, such as Thomas Jones and
Cadillac Williams and younger guys who have a chance like Laurence Maroney. There are also some
real bargains with legit potential like Tim Hightower, Derrick Ward, Correll Buckhalter, Willis
McGahee, and Leon Washington.

And I’m sure a few others will emerge as being more desirable than I think they are right now, perhaps
like Ben Tate and Toby Gerhart, although Tate has some serious catching up to do.

In short, my advice this year with the RBs is to be smart. Reaching for a shaky player early is a bad
move, yet there’s a lot to be said for a good player who’s a lock to get volume, like Cedric Benson got
last year. So in some ways, the position is as valuable as ever for fantasy. This is not the year to be
proactive and draft Darren McFadden early, and it’s not the year to pay anything close to a premium
for Brandon Jacobs based on his name and the hope that he returns to form. If they fall in your draft
and present a good value, that’s fine, but reaching for a player with issues at this position will likely
come back to haunt you. But with that said, this may be the year to take a chance late in the 1st round
on a guy like Mendenhall, who could handle 300+ carries for the Steelers and really come through. You
always have to take some chances when drafting a fantasy team; I’m just preaching for fantasy players
to take calculated risks that make sense.

The Wide Receiver Plan

This position is interesting this season in that we’ve all learned the importance of it early in drafts in
recent years, with stud wideouts at times being more valuable and reliable than the supposed stud
runners. That currently remains the case, but this year’s landscape at the position is a little thin at the
top. On the other hand, there’s a ton of depth, so my basic strategy is to ensure I acquire one or two of
the elite options and then focus more on taking advantage of the excellent depth at the position. For
example, in an early May expert draft, I was able to get Bear WR Johnny Knox as my #6 receiver, in
the 14th round. Knox’s stock has risen significantly, just as I predicted in an earlier version of this article,
but that was a great example of the outstanding depth. I could have addressed another position and

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Last Update: 8/18/10
added him as even my #4 wideout, and he would be a solid one. Heck, at this point, I’m ready and
willing to roll with Knox as my third receiver.

So later in the 1st round (or sooner in a PPR), I’m going to strongly consider Andre Johnson, who is
clearly the cream of the crop, and Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, an Reggie Wayne are worthy picks
anywhere from 10th overall on, especially if I’m staring at a shakier RB. Similar to the RB position, I’m
going to place an even greater value on the true #1 wideouts, the go-to guys, since more and more
teams are implementing multiple receiver sets, thus spreading the production in the passing game
among more players and making those featured receivers even more valuable. If I do get a guy like
Johnson, I’ll look to hold off on getting my second wideout for another round or two while addressing
other positions and target a solid guy like Mike Sims-Walker as my #2. If I add two or more non-WRs
in the first 1-3 rounds, I’ll likely look to get two of the remaining quality wideouts, perhaps Sidney Rice
and (Carolina’s) Steve Smith would be nice. I see a significant drop-off after the top 20 receivers,
which is usually the case, so I do want to get a pair of wideouts from the following group, if at all
possible: Johnson, Wayne, Moss, Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Miles Austin, Brandon
Marshall, Greg Jennings, Marques Colston, DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin,
Chad Ochocinco, Steve Smith (NYG), Mike Sims-Walker, Hines Ward, Jeremy Maclin, Michael
Crabtree, Hakeem Nicks, and (maybe) Wes Welker.

Otherwise, I’m going to do my best to take advantage of the great depth at the position and will first
target anyone who could potentially turn into his team’s go-to guy. Remember, that was a lesson
learned last year – albeit an obvious one – with a guy like Austin in Dallas. Players like Austin are rare,
so I’ll also target very active #2 wideouts on teams that throw the ball a lot. Nicks and Crabtree are
great examples of potential go-to receivers, and Dwayne Bowe, Johnny Knox, Robert Meachem,
Pierre Garcon, Percy Harvin, and Malcom Floyd are other nice young options with upside. There are
also some solid veteran types in this realm, and I’m okay with most of them as my #3, including
Donald Driver, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Santana Moss, and Terrell Owens.

There are always some sneaky depth options in guys who aren’t go-to guys but play key roles in good
offenses or receivers who have some issues but whose teams really need them to step up, meaning they
have a chance, yet won’t go too high in your draft. Candidates this year are: Derrick Mason, Lee
Evans, Donnie Avery, Devin Hester, Mohamed Massaquoi, Kenny Britt, Chris Chambers, and
Eddie Royal.

The viable options don’t stop there, which is why it’s advisable to stay patient at this position and don’t
load up on too many receivers in the first half of your draft. Doing that will not only offset the
advantages of the good depth, but it will also cost you at another position, most likely. Late, it’s all
about upside at this position, so look for younger players who could surprise and emerge as key players
for their teams. Some players who fit this bill are: Laurent Robinson, Dez Bryant, Chaz Schilens,
Devin Aromashodu, Mike Williams, Louis Murphy, Mario Manningham, Golden Tate, Jacoby
Jones, Julian Edelman, and believe it or not Darrius Heyward-Bey.

I haven’t even mentioned all the solid veterans like Jerricho Cotchery and all the intriguing youngsters
like Mike Williams, Brandon LaFell, Brandon Tate, and Golden Tate, so it’s important to note that
the position is very deep this year. It may not be deep in terms of actual production once the season
starts, but it’s definitely deep in terms of potential, so the WW will likely be a source for a productive
wideout or two for your teams this year.

So to summarize, I want to address the position early and secure as many sure things as possible, but I
don’t want to go nuts the first half of my draft because the depth is excellent.

The Tight End Plan

My plan here is to usually hold off on the position, since I love finding undervalued players among this
group. But this year I’m flexible because, as stated throughout this article, I’m all about impact players,
so I’m not going to rule out a Dallas Clark in the 3rd round. Most likely, unless I really feel strong and
want to attempt to hit it out of the park with a Jermichael Finley in like the 5th or even 4th round –
very possible because I absolutely love him – I will hold off on this position because, as is the case every
year, there are good players who slip a little and present good value. Owen Daniels last year was a

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great example of a value, and he might be again in this great offense, although he comes with risk as
well, given his knee injury. We pushed Brent Celek and Visanthe Shiancoe as values last year, and
they certainly were, especially Celek, who is a nice pick this year, for sure. He hasn’t quite arrived as a
player considered by the masses as a stud, so he’s still a pretty good value. I really like Zach Miller in
Oakland, and I’m really warming up to Heath Miller, who should be the #2 option in the Steeler
passing game this year. Both are great values. Kellen Winslow’s always a guy who seems to drop
more than his talent and potential, but he also drops for a reason (knee problems, poor QB).

Otherwise, if you really hold off on the position, the two Millers, Chris Cooley, John Carlson, and
Dustin Keller are good choices. Carlson and Keller have a little more upside, although I’m not sure
Keller can be a go-to guy on a team with plenty of other options in the passing game.

Later, when looking for a backup, I’d prefer to go for the gusto and look for an upside option, like Greg
Olsen, Jared Cook, and Ben Watson. Olsen’s kind of a big name, but at this point, after his
disappointing 2009 season and the presence of TE-hater Mike Martz, I view Olsen as a luxury pick, not
someone you can truly rely on. I love Cook, but it’s a tad too early to say fantasy players will be able to
count on him (in fact he’s disappointing in camp a little bit), so he’s nothing more than an upside
backup. Kevin Boss is a sneaky back-up option. There are some other intriguing situations and players
who may potentially emerge, but it’s too early to name any names, and most likely guys like Jermaine
Gresham, Tony Moeaki, Ed Dickson, and Rob Gronkowski will be Waiver Wire pickups, not draftable
commodities.

The Place Kicker Plan

Fantasy players have caught on, so no one should invest too heavily in a kicker anymore, so make sure
you hold off until at least the last 2-3 rounds before selecting one. But that doesn’t mean you can’t try
to locate some sneaky values at this position in the final few rounds. Some guys are in great spots but
coming off so-so seasons, like Stephen Gostkowski and Mason Crosby. Some seem to be in really
good situations in terms of getting chances, like Jay Feely, Rob Bironas, and Matt Prater. Some are
younger emerging guys like Dan Carpenter and Ryan Succop. And some are on teams with improved
offenses, like Robbie Gould and Shayne Graham, who is a good kicker with nice potential.

The Team Defense Plan

Let’s face it; the fantasy defenses are officially a joke. Due in large part to some of the rule changes
implemented by the league, the defenses are downright defenseless. Taking one too early is just dumb,
so similar to the approach with the kickers, you’ll probably be right along with everyone else in your
draft and will be looking to add your fantasy D in one of the final 2-3 rounds. And again, that doesn’t
mean you can’t find a value. For the most part, this year’s group actually seems pretty decent, with
New York Jets, Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh looking like
the best options. Even if you hold off a little, you should be able to get one of these units. I understand
that taking the Jet defense higher could be considered in line with the strategy of grabbing the best
available starter on the board, but I’m not seeing that strategy applying to the defenses. There are too
many variables for a unit that includes 11 players. In short, based on how lame the fantasy defenses
have been lately, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Jet D disappointed, despite their obvious talent. I like the
Saint defense again, by the way. Sure, they won’t score 8 TDs again this year, but the formula that
enabled them to make some many big plays last year definitely remains in 2010.

Otherwise, I give Chicago, San Francisco, New York Giants, and Cincinnati a chance to come
through. If you swing and miss on the defense you choose, that’s what the Waiver Wire is for. Who
would have thought the Saint defense would have been so good last year? Certainly not I.

Yahoo! Sports/FantasyGuru.com 2010 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

Last Update: 8/18/10