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 Our Common Future-
The "Brundtland
Synopsis
The World Commission on Environ-
ment and Development, chaired by the
Norwegian Prime Minister, Gro Har-
lem Brundtland, is the third "indepen-
dent world commission", following the
Brandt Commission on North-South
issues and the Palme Commission on
security and disarmament issues. The
Brundtland Commission's report Our
Common Future, Palme's Common
Security, and Brandt's Programme for
Survival and Common Crisis provide a
handy four-volume account of the
world's main problems.
Many experts in security, develop-
ment and environmental issues agree
that each report effectively defines the
relevant problems, but when it comes
to suggesting solutions each report is
criticized for being too general, too
bland and virtually without worthwhile
and practical recommendations. This
praise and criticism certainly applies to
Our Common Future (published by the
Oxford University Press). But radical
solutions to global problems may be
too much to expect from the report of a
commission established by the United
Nations.
Radicalism is, after all, hardly the
hallmark of the United Nations. The
organization and its agencies have been
very successful in dealing with humani-
tarian issues, when there is a political
consensus for action. UN successes in-
clude, among other things, smallpox
eradication, disaster relief, and assis-
tance to refugees.
However, the UN has failed to or-
ganize international action to deal with
global problems in cases when some
countries perceive that their narrow na-
tional or commercial interests would be
adversely effected. Thus, negotiations
on global economic, financial, trade
and environmental issues have got no-
where.
Given forty years of the UN's experi-
ences, it is difficult not to be cynical
when Our Common Future pleads for,
for example, long-term strategies and
changes in the institutional mechanisms
set up to protect the environment. Rec-
ommendations such as "the strengthen-
ing of the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP)", fine in them-
selves, are totally inadequate to tackle
global problems, which can only be sol-
ved by new political and social institu-
tions.
Look in the report for ideas about
the nature of such new institutions and
AMBIO VOL. 16 NO. 4, 1987
Commission" Report
you will look in vain. What you will
find are bland pleas for government
policies, all round the world, to be de-
termined by the concept of "sustain-
able development". Such idealism has
no impact in an era dominated by
Reaganite and Thatcherite market-
force economies.
Nevertheless, the analysis in Our
Common Future of major global prob-
lems -the increasing world population
and human resources; food security;
the extinction of species and their gene-
tic material; energy choices; economic
growth; and urbanization -is amongst
the best available. The Commission
held meetings in all regions of the
world, taking evidence from govern-
ment officials, scientists, industrialists,
nongovernmental organizations and
the general public. Hundreds of organi-
zations and individuals were heard and
more than 10000 pages of written
material considered.
The report stresses throughout that
real options are available to the world.
On population, for example, if replace-
ment fertility is reached in 2010, global
population will stabilize at 7700 million
by 2060 (today's world population is
about 5000 million and rising by 85 mil-
lion a year); if this rate is reached by
2035, population will stabilize at 10 200
million by 2095; and if the rate is
reached in 2065, global population will
reach 14200 million by 2100. Govern-
ment policies to bring down fertility
rates could make a difference of
thousands of millions to the world
population in the 21st century. This is
particularly true for government poli-
cies in South Asia, Africa and Latin
America.
More than 90 percent of world popu-
lation growth will be in the least de-
veloped countries, and 90 percent of
this will be in cities. In 1950, 29.2 per-
cent of the world population lived in
cities, in the year 2000 this figure will
probably be 46.6 percent. Much of the
increase in city dwelling will occur in
the Third World. If current trends con-
tinue, Third World cities could add a
further 750 million people by the year
2000.
Few Third World cities can cope with
very rapid increases in population. The
result is mushrooming shanty towns
with primitive facilities, increased over-
crowding and rampant disease. De-
veloping countries face a major urban
crisis. The potential for rapidly increas-
ing urban violence is obvious and a con-
siderable threat to world security.
Between 1950 and 1985 cereal pro-
duction outstripped population growth,
increasing from about 700 million tons
to over 1800 million tons, an annual
growth rate of about 2.7 percent. Dur-
ing this period, the annual growth of
the world population was 1.9 percent.
In 1985, the world produced nearly 500
kilograms per head of cereals and root
crops, yet more than 730 million people
did not eat enough food to lead fully
productive working lives.
In Europe, meat production more
than tripled between 1950 and 1984,
and milk production nearly doubled.
World meat exports have risen from
some 2 million tons in 1950-52 to over
11 million tons in 1984. To produce this
meat and milk in 1984 required some
1400 million cattle and buffaloes, 1600
million sheep and goats, 800 million
pigs and a huge number of chickens.
These animals weigh in total more than
the human population of the world.
But short-sighted policies are de-
grading the agricultural resources base
almost everywhere -soil erosion in
North America; soil acidification in
Europe; deforestation and desertifica-
tion in Asia, Africa and Latin America;
and waste and pollution of water virtu-
ally everywhere. It is estimated that
each year in the developing countries
about 10000 people die and about
400 000 suffer acutely from pesticide
poisoning.
The problem of increasing food pro-
duction to keep pace with demand,
while retaining "the essential ecological
integrity of production systems," is co-
lossal. But, the report concludes that,
using new technologies to increase ag-
ricultural productivity "we can meet
the demands of the human family"
while conserving our land and water
resources. If only appropriate agricul-
tural policies are adopted -a big if.
Ecosystems and the biosphere as a
whole need diversity of species and
their genetic materials. Species are dis-
appearing at unprecedented rates. On
average, some 900 000 species of plants
and animals have become extinct every
one million years during the past 200
million years, an average of one extinc-
tion every one and one-ninth year.
Currently, extinctions caused by hu-
man activities are occurring at rates
hundreds, or perhaps thousands, of
times higher than the natural rate. No
217
 accurate figures on current extinction
rates are available because most of the
species vanishing are the least known,
such as insects in tropical forests.
Although tropical forests, which con-
tain 90 percent or more of all species,
are being destroyed at an alarming rate
(out of 1.5-1.6 thousand million hec-
tares that once stood, only 900 million
hectares remain and these are being
destroyed at the rate of at least 10 mil-
lion hectares per year), some govern-
ments are moving to help threatened
species, mainly by establishing protect-
ed areas. Worldwide, about 4 million
square kilometers are protected -3.9
percent of the territory of Europe (ex-
cluding the USSR) is protected; 2.5
percent of the territory of the USSR is
protected; 8.1 percent of North Ameri-
ca; 6.1 percent of South America; 6.5
percent of Africa; 4.3 percent of Asia;
and 4.3 percent of Australia. But the
total area protected needs to be at least
tripled if it is to include a representative
sample of the earth's ecosystems.
Rapidly growing populations of de-
veloping nations will need much more
energy -today the average person in a
developed country uses more than 80
times as much energy as a person in
sub-Saharan Africa. But we have not
yet found safe and sustainable energy
sources. To bring the energy use of de-
veloping countries up to that of the de-
veloped countries by the year 2025
would mean increasing global energy
use by a factor of five. Yet the risk of
global warming, because of the "green-
house effect" of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere from burning fossil fuel,
Tropical Disease
Synopsis
Coexistence between parasite, host and
vector is a natural biological phenome-
non, where the parasite is dependent
on a satisfactory supply of hosts. Under
natural conditions, the parasite and
host live in a sort of equilibrium
brought about by natural selection. The
response from the host can be a certain
degree of immunity. In the case of
malaria this is maintained only by more
or less continuous infection. The price
the host has to pay is a certain degree of
infant mortality. This "balance" has
probably existed ever since mosquitos
began to find humans palatable.
MALARIA
ANDTHEANOPHELINE
MOSQUITO
When man changes his mode of life
(e.g. through urbanization) or when he
exploits and rearranges the setting (e.g.
in connection with irrigation) or when
he undertakes preventive measures re-
218
and acidification of the environment
rule out even a doubling of energy use
based on the current mix of energy
sources.
Our Common Future claims that a
safe, environmentally benign, and eco-
nomically viable "energy pathway that
will sustain human progress into the
distant future is clearly imperative. It is
also possible. But it will require new
dimensions of political will and institu-
tional co-operation to achieve it." But
what the report does not tell us is how
this can be brought about in the short
time we have left.
The Brundtland Commission report
explains that a five- to tenfold increase
in manufacturing output will be needed
just to raise developing-world con-
sumption of manufactured goods to in-
dustrialized world levels by the time the
world population stabilizes in the next
century. Emerging technologies are
seen to be a way of achieving higher
productivity in industry, but many of
these bring risks of new toxic wastes
and catastrophic accidents. Industrial
expansion in the north will be necessary
to pull the south along in its wake and
this can be environmentally sustainable
only if the industrialized countries dras-
tically reduce the raw material content
of their industrial processes and con-
serve energy.
Our Common Future claims that we
have the ability to make development
sustainable -"to ensure that humanity
meets the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future gen-
erations to meet their own needs." Sus-
tainable development is seen as "a pro-
and Human Ecology
sulting in lost immunity, the host-para-
site equilibrium may be upset. Malaria
then becomes a problem, often leading
to a fight between man and anopheline
mosquitos. In this war the mosquitos
have an enormous advantage due to
their small size, high reproductive
capacity, short generation time and
therefore efficient adaptability.
A single female mosquito can,
theoretically, build up a population of
20 million within five generations or
two months. The reproductive capacity
of the mosquito is such that the crea-
ture can hardly be eradicated. Even if
99 percent of a mosquito population is
wiped out, the one remaining percent
can soon rebuild the population. The
surviving few which transfer their genes
to the members of the rebuilt popula-
tion are the hardiest ones in relation to
conditions present, including the insec-
ticides used. In this way resistance
against insecticides has evolved. By the
cess of change in which the exploitation
of resources, the direction of invest-
ments, the orientation of technological
development, and institutional change
are made consistent with future as well
as present needs."
This is all well and good. But how do
we achieve it? Our Common Future
doesn't tell us. And this is extremely
depressing. One can't help thinking
that if the large number of world ex-
perts mobilized by the Commission
can't suggest solutions to global prob-
lems there probably aren't any solu-
tions. The fact that catastrophe is not
very far away (remember the world
population will reach 10 000 million in a
mere 40 years from now) makes it seem
all the more hopeless.
Nevertheless, Our Common Future
is essential reading for all interested in
the environment, and so are the reports
of three advisory panels set up by the
Commission -Food 2000, Energy
2000, and Industry 2000. The Brundt-
land Commission concludes that: "In
the final analysis, sustainable develop-
ment must rest on political will." The
tragedy is that very few practicing
politicians are likely to read the Com-
mission's report.
Frank Barnaby
Brandreth, Station Road,
Chilbolton, Stockbridge,
Hants S020 6AW
England
same principle, mosquitos have existed
millions of years adapting themselves
to every type of appropriate ecological
niche and have adjusted their behavior
to a wide range of circumstances, in-
cluding human behavior. They will effi-
ciently go on adapting themselves to
the various undertakings by man.The
tiny mosquito is a superior creature. A
direct war against mosquitos can hardly
ever be won. This could perhaps be
done with unlimited economic re-
sources, but the price would also in-
clude a ruined environment.
In conclusion, man has to adapt-
not by natural selection, which is slow
in this case - but by conscious modifi-
cation of his way of life to include the
mosquito. Man has to incorporate the
mosquito in the spectrum of conditions
which form the basis for human living
and well-being. Man and mosquito
have to live in an acceptable modus
vivendi.
AMBIO VOL. 16 NO. 4, 1987