Sustainable

SUSTAINABLE MATERIALS
WITH BOTH EYES OPEN
JULIAN M ALLWOOD
UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE
COPYRIGHT JULIAN M ALLWOOD AND JONATHAN M CULLEN 2012. THIS ELECTRONIC COPY IS PROVIDED, FREE, FOR PERSONAL USE ONLY
Steel, aluminium and climate change
Buildings Industry
31% 35%
Energy/
process Focus on CO2
emissions
28 GtCO2 • IPCC says it’s urgent
Other • Steel and aluminium
7% have a big impact
Transport but not receiving
27% much attention
Other Steel
45% 25%
Industrial Key challenges
carbon
emissions • Scale
10 GtCO2 • Uncertainty
• Estimates
Cement
Aluminium Paper 19%
3% Plastic 4%
COPYRIGHT JULIAN M ALLWOOD AND 4%
JONATHAN M CULLEN 2012. THIS ELECTRONIC COPY IS PROVIDED, FREE, FOR PERSONAL USE ONLY
Steel and aluminium in use
Infrastructure Metal goods
150 Mt
14 %
134 Mt Steel
12 %
1,040 Mt
Buildings
Trucks
433 Mt and ships Electrical
42 % 28 Mt equipment
Mechanical
equipment Cars and
3 % Domestic 27 Mt
appliances
137 Mt light trucks 3 %
29 Mt Consumer
13 % 93 Mt 3 % packaging
9 % 9 Mt
1 %
Cars Electrical Mechanical Appliances

8 Mt cable equipment
3 Mt Other
18 % 4 Mt 3 Mt 7 % Electrical transport
9 % 7 % equipment
1 Mt
2 Mt 2 %
Packaging 4 %
6 Mt
13 % Trucks
3 Mt
Other
products 7 % Aluminium
4 Mt
Buildings
11 Mt
9 % 45 Mt
24 %
Image: Jaguar
Demand for steel and aluminium
16
1000 12 Japan
Production (kg/person/year)
Stock (tonnes/person)
Canada
Stock (tonnes/person)
750
US
8
UK
8
500
France
4
250 2000
1975
1950 China India
1900
0 0 0
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 1900 2000 2100
GDP ($/person/year)
Production stabilises ... stocks stabilise ... so we can forecast demand
3000
Primary
production Challenge
Mt/yr
Secondary
production
Over the next 40 years we expect demand
1500 to double, but must halve our CO2 emissions
Approach
0
1960 2005 2050 Forecast flows, anticipate emissions
factors, predict business shape
Production + recycling
Global flows of steel
Reduction Steelmaking Casting Rolling / Forming Fabrication End-use products
Oxygen Continuous Hot Cold
Iron ore Blast furnace blown furnace casting (slab) strip mill rolling mill Cold rolled coil
Cars
Vehicles
CRC coated
Trucks
CRC galv.
Other
Tin plated
Electrical strip
HRC galv. Industrial Mechanical

Hot rolled coil equipment
Plate
Primary mill
Ingot mill Electrical
HR narrow strip
Direct
reduction Open
hearth Plate
furnace
Continuous Rod and Cladding
casting (billet) bar mill Welded pipe
End-of-life Scrap Construction
scrap preparation Electric Reinforcing
Seamless tube
furnace
Reinforcing bar Infrastructure
Wire rod Structural

Continuous Hot rolled bar
casting (bloom) Section mill
Rail section
Packaging
Light section Metal
Heavy section products Appliances
Steel product casting Other
Cast steel
Iron foundry casting Cast iron
Cast iron
scrap
Forming scrap Global demand in 2008
Fabrication scrap for steel products
= 1,040 million tonnes
Messages
• 1/4 of liquid steel never reaches • end-of-life scrap is less than
products but is scrapped in production half of the scrap input
Process energy analysis — steel
Coating
0.6 EJ
Blast 46 %
furnace Basic
16 EJ oxygen
7 % furnace
0.2 EJ
Rolling
3.6 EJ
46 %
Continuous
Direct casting
reduction 0.4 EJ Forming
74 % 0.2 EJ
0.7 EJ 82%
Electric arc
furnace
2.7 EJ
86 %
Shape Fabrication
casting 6-11 EJ
Steel (overall) 2.1 EJ 70 %
Energy = 38 EJ 46 %
Electricity = 39 %
Images: worldsteel
• Process energy data is commercially • Energy for producing liquid metal

sensitive and incomplete dominates for both metals
Global flows of aluminium
Electrolysis / Melting Casting Rolling / Forming / Casting Fabrication End-use products
Alumina Electrolysis Casting Hot rolling Cold rolling Foil rolling Foil
Vehicles Cars
Cold rolled sheet
Other
Hot rolled strip Mechanical
Extrusion Industrial
Plate equipment Cable
Remelting
Wire drawing Electrical
Extrusions
Structural
Cable / wire Construction
Forming scrap Non-structural
Fabrication scrap Infrastructure

Die castings
Casting Shape casting Drinks cans
Refining
Permanent castings Metal
products Packaging foil
Durables
Sand castings
Other
Other
Forming scrap
Global demand in 2007
Fabrication scrap
for aluminium products
End-of-life scrap
= 45 million tonnes
Messages
• 40% of liquid metal never reaches • Aluminium recycling mainly leads
products but is scrapped in production to casting alloys for engine blocks
Process energy analysis — aluminium
Alumina Electrolysis Ingot Rolling
mining 5.0 EJ casting 0.23 EJ
+refining 100 % 0.05 EJ 72 %
1.1 EJ 44 %
2 %
Extrusion
+drawing
Scrap
0.09 EJ
remelting
19 %
0.04 EJ
30 %
Scrap Alloy ingot Shape

refining casting casting Fabrication
0.15 EJ 0.03 EJ 0.17 EJ 0.3-0.6 EJ
14 % 44 % 1 % 70 %
Aluminium (overall)
Energy = 7.6 EJ
Electricity = 76 %
• Process energy data is commercially • Energy for producing liquid metal

sensitive and incomplete dominates for both metals
Energy
Business Consumer Retailers

providers
structure
Maintenance goods industry
providers Food
Appliance industry
Part manufacturers
suppliers Equipment Factory
manufacturers designers Fillers
Food and drink
Mining and Packaging

minerals Industrial manufacturers
equipment Metal
Steel
users Industrial products
Aluminium equipment Maintenance
providers
Metal products Ship
Transport builders Airlines
goods
Developers Planners
Machinery and
Surveyors Aircraft
equipment
Architects manufacturers
Other Contractors Dealers
manufacturing Utility +tradesmenConstruction Vehicles Car + truck
Utilities
companies Estate manufacturers
Construction agents
Transport Building Leasing
services Demolition engineers Logistics companies
Other business companies companies
and public
services Stockholders
Food and drink
Mining and
minerals Fabricators
Steel
Aluminium
Steel+
Metal products aluminium
Transport
goods
industries
Machinery and
equipment
Government
NGOs Refiners
Other
manufacturing Lobby groups
Utilities Trade associations
Insurance providers
Construction Universities Mining Consumers Scrap
Transport
Financial services industry merchants
services
Other business
and public Landowners
services
The story so far ...
The world of steel and aluminium
• Demand is likely to double but we want to halve emissions in 40 years
• Recycling rates are already high
• Most energy is used in upstream liquid metal production
• The cost of these metals is a small fraction of the price of final goods
• Forecasting depends on future flows and future emissions factors
Looking ahead ‘with one eye open’ — emissions factors

• The easiest solution for everyone is to reduce emissions factors
• Is it possible to reduce them by 75%?
Looking ahead ‘with both eyes open’ — metal flows

• Do we have other options if we consider changing the flows?
With one eye open — energy efficiency?
Gas 6.5%
Electricity Other 3%
Coke
3.6% Energy About one third
26%
35% of the cost of
Other Steel
Aluminium producing both
24% production
production metals is to
costs costs purchase energy
Labour
+other
materials
Ferrous raw 37% Alumina 25%
materials 40%
60
... as a result both 16 Average
industries already
MWh/t aluminium
GJ/t crude steel
45 Best practice = 13 MWh/t

seek every possible 12
energy efficiency -
30
and both are within Average 8 Theoretical minimum = 9 MWh/t
sights of Gibbs’
15 Best practice = 12.5 GJ/t
theoretical limit 4
Theoretical minimum = 6.6 GJ/t
0 0
1975 2009 1980 2009
With one eye open — heat capture?
1800
Casting
Hot work
Heat treatment
Primary processes
Rebar
Car body
1350
Temperature (ºC)
Forged mining part
Chassis plate
Wire
900
450
0
Image: Siemens
Time
Electricity generation
Hot metal
Hot metal
Primary
energy Primary energy Electricity generation
ESP
Casting Hot rolling
Losses
Losses
• We could cut out heating cycles, but • Heat capture from hot gases is
this will deny some economies of scale common, from solids is more difficult
With one eye open — new process routes?
Iron ore pellets
Off gas
Steel
Gas scrubber duct
Used gas
Melting
Reformed gas cyclone
Point feeders break +
crust and introduce
metal oxide here
Current feed
Used gas Smelting
reduction
vessel Anode Anode
er
Reform Oxygen gas
Cell
bubbles
Cool sidewall
Oxygen
Steel shell
clean Directly reduced
Gas gas iron ready for
Molten oxide + electrolyte Frozen
scrubber the electric
electrolyte
arc furance -
Collector bar Metal pool
Natural gas Liquid
Cell floor cathode
Direct reduced iron Smelt reduction Iron ore

(to EAF) + CCS pyroelectrolysis
Aluminium
Off
gas
Alumina
and carbon
r r
+ - + feed Vapou Vapou Aluminium
- c ove ry c ove ry
re re
Aluminium Pool
Multipolar Inert Carbothermic

electrolysis cell anodes reduction
Images: worldsteel
With one eye open — clean electricity?
1.95 W/m2 1.25 W/m2 0.2 W/m2 0.3 W/m2
Credit: David MacKay

With one eye open — carbon capture + storage
Infinite potential provided someone else pays for it ...
• The novel steel routes require electricity or storage
• There won’t be enough ‘renewable’ electricity - so nuclear or fossil and storage
• Globally there are 3 small test sites in operation - yet the IEA is
forecasting up to 25% of all emissions will be stored within 40 years
1. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs

2. Use of CO2 in enhanced oil recovery
3. Deep unused saline water-saturated reservoir rocks
4. Deep unmineable coal seams
5. Use of CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery
1 4 5
3 Images: worldsteel
2
Image: CO2CRC
With one eye open — scenarios
Steel BAU Target
Process Efficiency Options
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Current (2008)
Gt CO2
Aluminium BAU Target
Process Efficiency Options
0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8

Current (2007)
Gt CO2
With one eye open
• Both industries are already motivated to pursue energy
efficiency - there are very few options left
• Ideas for innovation depend either on ‘clean electricity’ or carbon
storage, or both - and are a long way from widespread use
• Even with the most optimistic projections, we cannot
possibly halve emissions by 2050 if demand doubles
With both eyes open — what else can we do?
Electrolysis / Melting Casting Rolling / Forming / Casting Fabrication End-use products

Electrolysis Casting Hot rolling Cold rolling Foil rolling
Foil
Vehicles Cars
Alumina Aluminium Slab
Cold rolled sheet Other
Billet Hot rolled strip Mechanical
Extrusion
Plate Industrial Electrical
Remelting equipment cable
Aluminium
Wire drawing
Extrusions
Use less Longer
by design life goods
Cable / wire
Forming scrap
Reduce Non-structural
in buildings
Fabrication scrap demand Infrastructure
Casting Shape casting Die castings
Refining Drinks cans
Aluminium Alloy ingot Permanent mould castings Packaging foil

Metal
products Consumer
Re-use Divert Sand castings durables
Other
Forming scrap
old metal scrap Other
Global demand in 2007

Reduce
Fabrication scrap for aluminium products
yield loss = 45 million tonnes
End-of-life scrap
With both eyes open — use less by design
5 principles of lightweight design
α1 1. Support multiple loads together
α2 2. Don’t over-specify the loads
3. Align loads with members to avoid bending
4. Optimise the cross-section for bending
5. Choose the best material
Barriers Opportunities
Loads before use Other supports
Asymmetric risks Rewrite standards
Manufacturing New processes
With both eyes open — reduce yield losses
100%
Steel
We scrap more than a
quarter of our liquid metal
• Blanking, trimming and machining
Aluminium are the main causes
50%
• Additive manufacture does
not provide a solution
• Novel forming processes are required
combined with casting to make
0
I-beam Car doors Drinks Wing intermediate products closer to final shapes
can skin
J / t J/t
Cumulative process energy (GJ/t liquid steel)
G 0 G
Door 40 3
/t
J
20
panel 20 G
Liquid
10 steel
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Cumulative Yield (t output/t liquid steel)
With both eyes open — diverting scrap
If we can’t eliminate yield

losses can we divert scrap?
• Trim and sell sheet and plate skeletons
• Solid bonding of aluminium swarf
• Market for over-ordered stock
With both eyes open — re-use without melting
Steel re-use in construction has begun 1000
Tonnage per year (kt)

• Certification and irregular supply are problems 750
• Availability in the UK is rapidly increasing 500
• Profit possible but decision timing is a challenge

250
Old building Identify source building 0

1900 1970 2040
Year
Deconstruction Strip building and 800
deconstruct frame Annual consumption of structural
sections
600
£ (2009) per tonne

Design Design around available Predicted annual availability of
stock to minimize overuse reclaimed sections
400
Recondition/ Clean, remove fixings;

coupon (or other) test; 200
Certification
negotiate insurance
0
2009
Fabricate Cut and weld 2006
Year
Profit opportunity
Building unoccupied
Construction As normal
Demolition
Reconditioning costs
Decision points
Construction
Deconstruction cost
New building Share messages Compensation for scrap
Project timeline
With both eyes open — longer life products
... relative to when it ... relative to what’s
was purchased now available
The product’s perfor- Degraded Inferior

mance has declined ... e.g. rail track e.g. washing machines
The product’s value Unsuitable Unwanted

has declined ... e.g. sports car e.g. single hulled oil tankers
Cumulative Emissions
Steel Share Cost Share

Control systems (5yr)
Time Work rolls (2-5yr)
8000 More frequent replacement Back-up

Less frequent replacement rolls (15yr)
0% 50% 100%
Cumulative Profit (£)
6000
Motors (20yr)
4000 Cooling/hydraulic
systems (20yr)
2000
Gearboxes (40yr)
Steel strip
0
Time
Structure (40-100yr) rolling mill
With both eyes open — reducing final demand
If not material efficiency,
then demand reduction?
• More intense use?
• Deliver the material service
with less material?
• Consume less? Increase Use more
capacity frequently
DESIGN
CAPACITY SERVICE Reduce
100% Use at full
New Zealand
Netherlands SPACE capacity
design
USA
capacity
Japan
Happiness
50% Intensity of use Pass on
Repair or Make more

USE upgrade durable
Russia
PROFILE
0%
0 20,000 40,000 Time POINT OF END OF
Income per head ($/year) DISCARD PHYSICAL LIFE
With both eyes open — scenario building
72 40% 300 20% 85%

kg/m2 kg
100
kg/m2 0% 1300 40% 0%
kg
Less metal Reuse of Less metal Yield loss Scrap
by design components
For all products by design reduction diversion
• Establish current averages 80 80 1000

years hr/wk 30% 20
years p-km/wk
• Anticipate future limits
for each option
40 40
years hr/wk 14 500
• Validate with industry partners 0% years p-km/wk
Life More
extension intense use Reuse of Life More
components extension intense use
With both eyes open — scenario analysis
With both eyes open we have enough options to cut emissions by 50%
BAU Target 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Process efficiency 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75%
Process+ material 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
efficiency 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Steel Gt CO2 Current (2008) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Yield loss
reduction
Less metal
by design
Scrap
diversion
Life
Extension
More
intense use
Reuse of
components
BAU Target 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Process Efficiency 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75%
Process + material 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
efficiency
25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Material Efficiency
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8
Yield loss
reduction
Less metal
by design
Scrap
diversion
Life
Extension
More
intense use
Reuse of
components
Aluminium Current (2007) Gt CO2
Life extension, more intense use and using less metal

by design are the most effective strategies
Implementation
Office Rolling Car Fridge
block mill
Mass of liquid steel (kg/pers/yr) 43 1.7 58 2.6
Spending (£/pers/yr) 560 6 600 13
Equivalent labour (hrs/pers/yr) 50 0.3 33 1
2050 liquid steel (kg/pers/yr) 13 0.5 17 0.8
Conclusions
• With one eye open: we cannot reduce emissions enough
if demand for new material grows as forecast
• With both eyes open: we have a lot of options
for living well with less new material
@SMWBEO
www.wellmet2050.com
www.withbotheyesopen.com

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SUSTAINABLE MATERIALS

WITH BOTH EYES OPEN

Cars Electrical Mechanical Appliances

Production stabilises ... stocks stabilise ... so we can forecast demand

HRC galv. Industrial Mechanical

Wire rod Structural

• Process energy data is commercially • Energy for producing liquid metal

Fabrication scrap Infrastructure

Scrap Alloy ingot Shape

• Process energy data is commercially • Energy for producing liquid metal

Business Consumer Retailers

Mining and Packaging

Looking ahead ‘with one eye open’ — emissions factors

Looking ahead ‘with both eyes open’ — metal flows

45 Best practice = 13 MWh/t

Direct reduced iron Smelt reduction Iron ore

Multipolar Inert Carbothermic

1.95 W/m2 1.25 W/m2 0.2 W/m2 0.3 W/m2

Credit: David MacKay

1. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs

Process Efficiency Options

Aluminium BAU Target

Process Efficiency Options

0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8

Electrolysis / Melting Casting Rolling / Forming / Casting Fabrication End-use products

Aluminium Alloy ingot Permanent mould castings Packaging foil

Global demand in 2007

If we can’t eliminate yield

Tonnage per year (kt)

• Availability in the UK is rapidly increasing 500

• Profit possible but decision timing is a challenge

Old building Identify source building 0

£ (2009) per tonne

Recondition/ Clean, remove fixings;

The product’s perfor- Degraded Inferior

The product’s value Unsuitable Unwanted

Steel Share Cost Share

Time Work rolls (2-5yr)

8000 More frequent replacement Back-up

50% Intensity of use Pass on

Repair or Make more

72 40% 300 20% 85%

• Establish current averages 80 80 1000

BAU Target 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Process efficiency 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75%

Process+ material 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

efficiency 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%

Process Efficiency 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75%

Process + material 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8

Life extension, more intense use and using less metal

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