PROBABILITY

Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. Thus, it could be
used as measures of the degree of uncertainty associated with events.
Probabilities values are always assigned on a scale from 0 to 1. A probability value of zero
indicates that an event will never occur while the probability value of 1 indicates that an event
will certainly happen. In between these two extremes, a probability value near zero indicates
an event is unlikely to occur; a probability value near 1 indicates an events is almost certain to
occur.
Basic Terms
The discussions in this chapter relies on the following important terms:
EXPERIMENTS This is a process that generates well-defined outcomes. It is an activity or
measurements that results in outcome.

Experiment Experimental outcomes

Toss a coin Head, Tail
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Football game Win, lose, tie

SAMPLE SPACE All possible outcomes of an experiment. It is the set of all experimental
outcomes. An experimental outcomes is also called sample point

ADDITION RULES FOR PROBABILITY

There are occasions where we wish to determine the probability that one or more of several
events will occur in an experiment. The determination of such probabilities involves the use
of addition rules, and the choice of a given rule will depend on whether the events are
mutually exclusive.
Mutually Exclusive Events
When events are mutually exclusive, the occurrence of one means that none of the others can
occur. That is, the occurrence of one will prevent the occurrence of the other. In this case, the
probability that one of the events will occur is the sum of their individual probabilities. In terms
of two events, the rule can be stated as follows:
Rule of addition when events are mutually exclusive:

P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B)
Example

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Non-Mutually Exclusive Events
When events are not mutually exclusive, two or more of them can happen at the same time.
That is the occurrence of one does not exclude the occurrence of the other. In this case, the
general rule of addition can be used in calculating probabilities. In terms of two events, it can
be stated as follows:
General rule of addition when events are not mutually exclusive:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

Example
As befits its name, the general rule of addition can also be applied when the events are
mutually exclusive. In this case, the final term in the expression will become zero because
events that are mutually exclusive cannot happen at the same time.

MULTIPLICATION RULES FOR PROBABILITY

While addition rules are used to calculate the probability that at least one of several events
will occur, in this section we’ll consider rules for determining the probability that two or more
of the events will all occur. These rules involve several important terms:
MARGINAL PROBABILITY The probability that a given event will occur. No other events are
taken into consideration. A typical expression is P (A).
JOINT PROBABILITY The probability that two or more events will all occur. A typical
expression is P (A and B).
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY The probability that an event will occur, given that another event
has already happened. A typical expression is P (A|B), with the verbal description, “the
probability of A, given B.” A conditional probability may be determined as follows:
Conditional probability of event A, given that event B has occurred:
P (A and B)
P (A|B) = (Note: This applies only if P(B) > 0.)
P (B)

The rules that follow are called multiplication rules; they determine the probability that two
events will both happen or that three or more events will all happen. There are two
multiplication rules, and the one that is applicable will depend on whether the events are
independent or dependent:
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Events are independent when the occurrence of one event has no effect on the probability
that another will occur.
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When events are independent, their joint probability is the product of their individual
probabilities. In the case of two events, the multiplication rule is as follows:
Multiplication rule when events are independent:
P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)
Events can be independent when we sample with replacement.
To illustrate this rule, we’ll use a device called a tree diagram, which visually summarizes the
occurrence or nonoccurrence of two or more events. The tree diagram is especially useful in
visualizing events that occur in sequence. Figure … illustrates two consecutive tosses of a fair
coin. Regardless of the result of the first toss, the probability of heads on the next toss is going
to be 0.5; the tree diagram in Figure … shows all the possibilities, along with their joint
probabilities.
DEPENDENT EVENTS
Events are dependent when the occurrence of one event changes the probability that another
will occur.
When events are not independent, the occurrence of one will influence the probability that
another will take place. Under these conditions, a more general multiplication rule applies:
Multiplication rule when events are not independent:
P (A and B) = P (A) × P (B | A)
Events can be dependent when we sample without replacement.
Example

BAYES’ THEOREM
In the 1700s, Thomas Bayes developed a theorem that is an extension of the concept of
conditional probability discussed in the previous section. In Bayes’ application of conditional
probability, the emphasis is on sequential events; in particular, information obtained from a
second event is used to revise the probability that a first event has occurred. The theorem will
be demonstrated by means of an example, and key terms will be introduced along the way.

PERMUTATIONS AND COMBINATIONS

Fundamentals of Counting

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If there are m ways in which a first event can happen, and n ways in which a second event can
then occur, the total number of possibilities is m × n. For example, if you have two different
cars and four different routes to travel to work, you can arrive in 2 × 4, or 8, different ways.
This can be described as the principle of multiplication:
The principle of multiplication:

 If, following a first event that can happen in n1 ways, a second event can then happen
in n2 ways, the total number of ways both can happen is n1n2.
 Alternatively, if each of k independent events can occur in n different ways, the total
number of possibilities is nk.
Factorial
If you have four different tasks to do and must choose the order in which you will do them. In
this case, the number of possibilities becomes
4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 24
Note;
- There are 4 choices to do the task first
- Once the first task is done, 3 choices are left
- Once the second task is done, 2 choices are left
- Once the third task is done, only 1 choice remains
The product (4 × 3 × 2 × 1) is called a factorial and can be described by the symbol “4!.” For
example, 3! is the same as 3 × 2 × 1. The exclamation point is just a mathematical way of saving
space. This approach to counting can be described as the factorial rule of counting:
Factorial rule of counting:
n! = n × (n - 1) × (n - 2) × … × 1 (Note: 0! is defined as 1.)
Examples
Simplify the followings: (1) 5 Ị, (2) 3 Ị, (3) 6 Ị
PERMUTATIONS
Permutations refer to the number of different ways in which objects can be arranged in order.
In a permutation, each item can appear only once, and each order of the items’ arrangement
constitutes a separate permutation. The number of possible arrangements can be determined
as follows:
Number of permutations of n objects taken r at a time:

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 n
pr = n!
(n− r)!

Example
In how many ways can 6 books be arranged on a shelf if only 4 spaces are available?

6
p4 = 6!
(6− 4)!
6!
= 2! =
6×5×4×3×2×1
2×1
=
720
2
= 360 ways.

The situation can be viewed as follows: (1) the first shelf position can be filled in any of 6 ways,
(2) the second shelf position can then be filled in any of 5 ways, (3) the third shelf position can
then be filled in any of 4 ways, and (4) the fourth shelf position can then be filled in any of 3
ways. The total number of ways of filling these four shelf positions is thus 6 × 5 × 4 × 3, or 360.
In the equation above, note that the product (2 × 1) appears in both the numerator and the
denominator and is therefore canceled out, reducing the equation to 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 = 360. This
might seem like a rather large number of possibilities for just 6 books on a 4-book shelf, but
each different order of arrangement is regarded as a different permutation. In permutations,
the exact order in which the objects are arranged is paramount.
Example
Ten prominent citizens have been nominated for a community’s “Citizen of the Year” award.
First- and second-place trophies are awarded to the two persons receiving the highest and
second-highest number of votes. In how many different ways can the trophies be awarded?

10
p2 = 10!
(10− 2)!
=
10!
8!
=
10×9×8×7×6×5×4×3×2×1
8×7×6×5×4×3×2×1
= 10 × 9 = 90 ways

COMBINATIONS
Combinations refer to the number of different ways in which objects can be selected from list
of objects. Unlike permutations, combinations consider only the possible sets of objects,
regardless of the order in which the members of the set are arranged. The number of possible
combinations of n objects taken r at a time will be as follows:
Number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time:
n!
(𝑛𝑟) = r!(n− r)!

Example
In how many ways can 4 books be selected, if only 6 books are available?
6! 6×5×4! 30
(64) = 4!(6− 4)! = (𝑛𝑟) = = (𝑛𝑟) = = 15 ways
4! ×2! 2

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As this example suggest, for given values of n and r, with n > r > 1, the number of permutations
will always be greater than the number of combinations. This is because there will be r!
permutations for every possible combination.

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