Overview

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Lecture #20 – Planning & Pavements • Finish Planning
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Monday, April 10th, 2017

Four-Step Travel Demand Model

1. TRIP GENERATION
• How many trips will be generated by a given location and
when will these trips occur?
2. TRIP DISTRIBUTION
• What are the origins and destinations of these trips?
3. MODE CHOICE
• Which mode of transportation will be used to make the trip?
4. TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT
• Which route on the transportation network will be used
when making the trip?

Example of Steps in the Four-Step Planning Process Transportation Planning Step 1:

TRIP GENERATION
TRIP Trip Generation
Trip Productions (P i) DISTRIBUTION
Zone Pi
To Zone
1 MODE CHOICE
2 1 2 3 Pi
Mode 1
3
From Zone

1 Mode 2
2
Trip Attractions (A j) TRAFFIC
3
Zone Aj ASSIGNMENT
Aj
1 Route a
2 Route b
3 Route c

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ITE Trip Generation Transportation Planning Step 2:
• HUGE book with EVERY Trip Distribution
type of facility
• Sliced and diced for all
sorts of different time
periods
• The R2 has a threshold for
when to use average rate
vs. equation
• The ITE Trip Generation
Handbook, 2nd Edition,
which recommends using
the regression equation
only when the data sample
has at least 20 data points
AND an R2 value of 0.75 or
higher.

Trip Distribution Gravity Model

• Process by which the trips • Most widely used T/D model, due to:
generated in one zone are • Simplicity
allocated to another zone in • Accuracy
the study area • Support from the U.S. DOT

• Most common way to do this • Uses the attributes of the transportation system
is with a Gravity model and land use characteristics

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Gravity Model Gravity Model

• Analogous to Newton’s Law of Gravity  
A j fij k ij
mm Tij  Pi  
F = G 12 2  A f k 
r  j j ij ij 
• The number of trips between zones is
Tij = number of trips produced in zone i and attracted to zone j
• Directly proportional to the number of trip attractions
generated by the destination zone Pi = total number of trips produced in zone i
• Inversely proportional to travel time between the two Aj = number of trips attracted to (or relative attractiveness of) zone j
zones fij = friction factor (travel time relationship) between zones i and j
kij = socio-economic adjustment factor for trips between zones i and j

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2
Gravity Model Friction Factor 
Tij  Pi 
A j fij k ij


 A f k 
 j 
j ij ij

• Values of Pi and Aj are generally determined

through the trip generation process • f values inversely related to
• Can also use gravity model to distribute based upon travel time t
“attractiveness” of each zone (e.g., SF GFA, no. of
employees, etc.)
• fij determined by calibration
process
• Comparisons made between
• Sum of Pi’s must equal sum of Aj’s in study area gravity model results and
actual O-D survey

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Socioeconomic Adjustment Gravity Model Example

 
A j fij k ij
Tij  Pi  
 A f k  • The number of productions
 j j ij ij  and attractions with a three
zone study area are provided
• Socioeconomic adjustment factor kij here, along with the inter-
• Used to make adjustments of trip distribution values zonal travel times and
between zones corresponding friction factors
• Where differences between estimated and actual values are
significant • Given these data, determine
• Accounts for variables other than travel time the number of zone-to-zone
trips using the Gravity model.

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Gravity Model Example Gravity Model Example

• The process is then repeated:

• The first iteration is “singly
constrained” in that the
computed productions match the
given productions
• However, the attractions do NOT
converge at the zonal level
• Consequently, “new” attraction
values should be calculated for
each zone

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Gravity Model Example Transportation Planning Step 3:
• The second iteration, which is now “doubly Mode Choice
constrained” results in the computed
productions and attractions converging
(reasonably close) to the given values.

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Mode Choice Mode Choice

• Process by which the trips between TAZ in study  With these definitions of utility, the probability that a
area are allocated to available modes
traveler will choose some alternative, say m, is equal
• Mode Choice Methods: to the probability that the given alternative’s utility is
• Logit Model greater than the utility of all other possible
• Direct Generation Models
alternatives.
• Trip End Models
• Trip Interchange Models  The probabilistic component arises from the fact that
the unspecifiable portion of the utility expression is
not known and is assumed to be a random variable.

Logit Models Logit Models

• Approach that considers the relative utility of each • The choice of a mode is expressed as a probability
mode as a summation of each model attribute distribution.

Um   0  1 X1   2 X 2     n X n
• If auto (A) and transit (T) modes are being
Where:
considered, the probability of selecting the auto
• Um = utility of mode m
mode A can be written as:
• n = number of attributes
• Xi = attribute value (time, cost, etc.) eU A
• βi = coefficient value for attribute i P A  
eU A  eUT

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Logit Model Example Logit Model Example
• Data has been obtained for travel between an additional
suburban and downtown zone. The following binary logit model • Travel and cost data for each mode is provided in the following table.
has been developed to estimate the mode share between
private automobile and public transit between these two zones:
AUTO TRANSIT
Auto: UA = -0.46 – 0.35 T1 – 0.08 T2 – 0.5C
T1 (min) 20 30
Transit: UT = -0.07 – 0.35 T1 – 0.08 T2 – 0.5C
T2 (min) 8 6
Where:
T1 = Total travel time (min) C (dollars) 3.20 1.00
T2 = Waiting time (min)
C = Cost (dollars)

Logit Model Example Transportation Planning Step 4:

Traffic Assignment
• Use the logit model to determine the percent of travel in the
zone by auto and transit

• Auto: UA = -0.46 – 0.35 (20) – 0.08 (8) – 0.5 (3.20) = -9.70

• Transit: UT = -0.07 – 0.35 (30) – 0.08 (6) – 0.5 (1.00) = -11.55

PA = [e-9.70/(e-9.70 + e-11.55)] = 0.86

PT = [e-11.55/(e-9.70 + e-11.55)] = 0.14

Transportation Planning Step 4: Introduction

Traffic Assignment
 Trip generation and mode-destination choice models give
total highway traffic demand between a specified origin (the
neighborhood from which trips originate) and a destination
(the geographic area to which trips are destined), in terms of
vehicles per some time period (usually vehicles per hour).
 With this information in hand—route choice—can be
addressed. The result of the route choice decision will be
traffic flow (generally in units of vehicles per hour) on
specific highway routes, which is the desired output from the
traffic forecasting process.
• As previously eluded to, route choice is a classic
equilibrium problem:
• Travelers’ route choice decisions are primarily a function
of route travel times
• Travel times are greatly influenced by traffic flow
• Traffic flow is a result of route choice decisions
• The interrelationship between route choice
decisions and traffic flow forms the basis of route
choice theory and model development.
• Highway Performance Function

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Methodological Approach
• To model traveler route choice, a mathematical
relationship between route travel time and route traffic
flow is needed. This expression is usually referred to as a
highway performance function.
• The simplest mathematical model is that of a linear
relationship between travel time and traffic flow.
Methodological Approach
• Although this relationship is appealing because of its simplicity, it is not
terribly realistic. Recall from Chapter 5 that the speed/flow
relationship is parabolic in nature.
• Thus, a nonlinear relationship between travel time and traffic flow is
more realistic.

Fig. 8.6
Fig. 8.5

Route Choice Behavior User Equilibrium

• Two main assumptions with user equilibrium
• Route choice behavior is often modeled based
upon Wardrop’s Principles • Travelers base route selection only on travel time (not overly
• 1st Principle: Users choose the route that minimizes restrictive, but some people may base it on scenery, pavement
their own travel time quality, etc.)
• User Equilibrium
• 2nd Principle: Users distribute themselves on the • Travelers know travel times on all other alternative routes—
network in such a way that the average travel time somewhat strong assumption, but studies have shown that
travelers’ perception of travel times on routes they have not
for all users is minimized traveled are reasonably close to observed travel times.
• System Optimal

Methodological Approach
• A more realistic approach that is seen in practice is that travelers
will choose the route with the lowest travel time between their
origin and destination. This results in the user equilibrium scheme,
which is defined as follows:

• The travel time between a specified origin and

destination on all used routes is equal, and less
than or equal to the travel time that would be
experienced by a traveler on any unused route.