ANALYSIS OF FISHING DATA

APPLICATION OF COUNT REGRESSION

Anirban Ray Semester VI Roll No. 446 (2014-17)

CONTEXT OF THE DISSERTATION
 WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS …

• FORECASTING IS REQUIRED IN MANY PRACTICAL SITUATIONS

• SUPPOSE Y IS THE RESPONSE VARIABLE ABOUT WHICH WE ARE INTERESTED
• AND X1, X2, …, XP ARE SEVERAL EXPLANATORY VARIABLES, POSSIBLY AFFECTING Y

• OFTEN HAPPENS THAT WE WISH TO PREDICT Y BASED ON X 1, X2, …, XP

• DATA IS COLLECTED AND ENTERED IN A SOFTWARE
• METHOD OF ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES IS PERFORMED AND COEFFICIENTS ARE
INTERPRETED
• CONCLUSION IS MADE – “FIT IS MORE OR LESS SATISFACTORY”
 … IS NOT ALWAYS CORRECT

• O. L. S. GIVES BEST RESULTS WHEN DATA COMES FROM A NORMAL POPULATION

• (ASSUMING ABSENCE OF HETEROSCEDASTICITY, AUTOCORRELATION AND
MULTICOLLINEARITY)
• PRACTICALLY THAT RARELY HOLDS GOOD
• CONTINUOUS DATA CAN BE ASSUMED TO HAVE COME FROM GAUSSIAN DISTRIBUTION
• BY VIRTUE OF CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM OR BY MAKING SOME TRANSFORMATIONS
• UNFORTUNATELY NOT SO EASY FOR DISCRETE DATA
• ALTERNATIVE METHODS MUST BE APPLIED FOR SUCH CASES
GENERALIZED LINEAR MODELS
 WHAT IS G. L. M.

• BROAD CLASS OF LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS

• GENERALLY CONSISTS OF THREE COMPONENTS
• SYSTEMATIC COMPONENT IS A LINEAR PREDICTOR OF THE EXPLANATORY
VARIABLES
• RANDOM COMPONENT REFERS TO THE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF THE
RESPONSE
• LINK FUNCTION RELATES THE OTHER TWO COMPONENTS
• LINK IS A ONE-TO-ONE FUNCTION OF EXPECTATION OF THE RESPONSE VARIABLE

Source : Analysis of Discrete Data

 SCOPES OF G. L. M.

• APPLICABLE FOR INDEPENDENT LINK APPLICATION

OBSERVATIONS FROM EXPONENTIAL IDENTITY OLS, ANOVA, ANOCOVA
FAMILY POISSON, NEGATIVE
LOG
• PROVIDES ESTIMATES BASED ON BINOMIAL
METHOD OF MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD INVERSE GAMMA
LOGIT MULTINOMIAL, LOGISTIC
• EXAMPLES OF LINK FUNCTIONS
HANDLING REAL LIFE DATA
 WHAT TO DO …

• TO FIT SUITABLE THEORETICAL DISTRIBUTIONS TO THE DATA

• TO TEST WHETHER THE FIT IS SATISFACTORY OR NOT
• TO FIT A REGRESSION MODEL BASED ON THE FIT (IN CASE IT IS
SATISFACTORY)
• TO COMPARE FITTED REGRESSION MODELS, IF THERE ARE MORE THAN ONE
• TO INTERPRET THE COEFFICIENTS OF THE BEST FITTED MODEL
 GOODNESS OF FIT TEST

• TO
  TEST WHETHER A FIT IS GOOD OR NOT, PEARSON'S CHI-SQUARED
STATISTIC CAN BE USED
• , ASYMPTOTICALLY (PROVIDED THE FIT IS GOOD)

• IF UNKNOWN, NEED TO BE ESTIMATED BY USING THE FITTED MODEL

• IN CASE THERE ARE INDEPENDENT PARAMETERS,
• CHI-SQUARE APPROXIMATION WORKS IF SAMPLE SIZE IS LARGER THAN 50
AND
 AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION

• AS
  A MEASURE OF RELATIVE QUALITY OF TWO STATISTICAL MODELS FOR A
GIVEN A GIVEN SET OF DATA, A. I. C. CAN BE USED

• AS LOG-LIKELIHOOD OF A MODEL INCREASES, IT EXPLAINS THE DATA BETTER

• THUS THE MODEL WITH LOWER VALUE OF A. I. C. IS THE BETTER ONE
• THIS CAN BE USED ONLY WHEN FITTING IS DONE BY METHOD OF MAXIMUM
LIKELIHOOD
Source : Wikipedia
DATA UNDER STUDY
 DESCRIPTION OF THE PROBLEM

• FISHING IS ALLOWED IN A STATE

PARK count NUMBER OF FISHES CAUGHT
persons NUMBER OF PERSONS
• WILDLIFE BIOLOGISTS WANT TO
child NUMBER OF CHILDREN
MODEL HOW MANY FISH ARE BEING
camper WHETHER BROUGHT CAMPER
CAUGHT OR NOT
• DATA COLLECTED ON 250 GROUPS
• FOLLOWING OBSERVATIONS ARE
NOTED FOR ALL GROUPS

Source : INSTITUTE FOR DIGITAL RESEARCH AND EDUCATION

 PLAUSIBLE MODELS

• BEING THE MOST COMMON COUNT MODEL, POISSON MODEL CAN BE USED
PRIMARILY, PROVIDED MEAN AND VARIANCE OF NUMBER OF FISHES CAUGHT
ARE APPROXIMATELY EQUAL
• IF MEAN IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN VARIANCE, NEGATIVE BINOMIAL COULD
BE AN APPROPRIATE MODEL
• IF ZEROES (EITHER ALL OR SOME) OCCUR DUE TO SOME INDEPENDENT
PROCESS FROM THE COUNT PROCESS, HURDLE OR ZERO-INFLATED MODELS
CAN GIVE BETTER RESULTS
 INITIAL APPROACHES

DEFINING DESCRIPTIVE
VARIABLES MEASURES COLUMN DIAGRAM
   
 OBSERVATIONS

• WIDE VARIATION IN NUMBER OF FISHES CAUGHT, WITH AVERAGE BEING

QUITE SMALL
• POISSON MODEL CAN BE SUSPECTED TO BE VERY POOR
• SIGNIFICANT PRESENCE OF OVER-DISPERSION
• NEGATIVE BINOMIAL WOULD PROBABLY GIVE BETTER FIT
• TOO MANY ZEROES IN THE AVAILABLE DATA - NO FISHING DATA IS NOT
RECORDED
• ZEROES ARE GENERATED BY TWO INDEPENDENT BINARY AND COUNT
PROCESSES
• ZERO-INFLATED POISSON MODEL COULD BE AN ALTERNATIVE
FITTING OF DIFFERENT MODELS
 POISSON FITTING

•  P. M. F. OF DISTRIBUTION -
• M. L. E. OF IS THE SAMPLE MEAN
• , AN EXTREMELY UNLIKELY VALUE
• POISSON MODEL PROVIDES A POOR FIT FOR FISHING DATA
 NEGATIVE BINOMIAL FITTING

•  P. M. F. OF DISTRIBUTION -
• M. L. E. OF IS THE SAMPLE MEAN
• SOLVING SCORE EQUATION , M. L. E. OF IS 5.438.
• , WHICH IS A LIKELY VALUE AT 1% LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE
• NEGATIVE BINOMIAL PROVIDES A SATISFACTORY FIT FOR OUR DATA
 NEGATIVE BINOMIAL REGRESSION

• WE
  PROCEED TO FIT A REGRESSION MODEL WITH LOGARITHMIC LINK
FUNCTION
• MODEL :
• ARE UNKNOWN PARAMETERS, IS THE DISTURBANCE TERM
• WE ESTIMATE BY THE METHOD OF MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD
• FITTED MODEL :
 ZERO-INFLATED POISSON DISTRIBUTION

•  ZEROES OCCUR DUE TO TWO INDEPENDENT PROCESSES

• BY A BINARY PROCESS, WHEN A GROUP DO NOT FISH AT ALL [probability of
non-fishing being ]
• BY A POISSON PROCESS, WHEN A GROUP FAILS TO CATCH FISHES [with
parameter ]
• P. M. F. OF DISTRIBUTION -
 ZERO-INFLATED POISSON MODEL

• M.
  L. E. OF IS OBTAINED AS 7.628 BY SOLVING SCORE EQUATION
• M. L. E. OF IS OBTAINED AS 0.568 FROM THE EQUATION
• BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES, WE PROCEED TO FIT A REGRESSION MODEL
• WITH LOGIT LINK FOR BINARY PROCESS AND LOGARITHMIC LINK FOR COUNT PROCESS
• FITTED MODEL
 COMPARISON OF THE TWO REGRESSION
MODELS
• LOG-LIKELIHOOD OF NEGATIVE BINOMIAL MODEL COMES OUT TO BE
(-)405.222
• AND THAT OF ZERO-INFLATED POISSON MODEL IS (-)752.132
• THUS A. I. C. OF THE FORMER MODEL IS APPROXIMATELY 820
• AND THAT OF THE LATTER BECOMES MORE OR LESS 1521
• NOTE THAT, INCLUSION OF ZERO-INFLATION WORSENS EFFICACY OF THE
REGRESSION MODEL
• THUS WE CHOOSE NEGATIVE BINOMIAL AS A PREFERABLE MODEL OVER THE
ALTERNATIVE
INSIGHT INTO THE FIT
 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE COEFFICIENTS

• TO
  TEST WHETHER ALL THE FACTORS AFFECT THE RESPONSE, WE WISH TO
TEST
• APPROPRIATE TEST STATISTIC FOR EACH TEST ARE THE STANDARDIZED
ESTIMATES OF THAT PARAMETER
• WE OBTAIN THE VALUES OF THE FOUR TEST STATISTICS AS 9.273, (-)9.623,
(-)4.918 AND (-)3.362
• AND THE CRITICAL POINT IS OBTAINED AS 1.960, AT 5% LEVEL OF
SIGNIFICANCE
• HENCE ALL THE COEFFICIENTS CAN BE CONSIDERED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
NONZERO
 INTERPRETATION OF THE COEFFICIENTS

• TO
  UNDERSTAND HOW THE NUMBER OF FISHES CAUGHT IS AFFECTED BY
THE GROUP COMPOSITION, WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND THE IMPLICATIONS OF
THE VALUES OF THE ESTIMATES OF THE COEFFICIENTS
• AND CAN BE INTERPRETED AS THE INCREMENT IN THE LOGARITHM OF THE
AVERAGE NUMBER OF FISHES CAUGHT DUE TO UNIT INCREASE IN NUMBER
OF PERSONS AND CHILDREN IN A GROUP, WHEN OTHERS ARE HELD FIXED
• THUS PRESENCE OF AN ADDITIONAL PERSON IN THE GROUP WILL INCREASE
EXPECTED RESPONSE BY 189%, WHEREAS AN ADDITIONAL CHILD WILL
DECREASE IT BY 83%.
 … CONTINUED

•  SINCE AND ARE RELATED, WE CANNOT INTERPRET AND SEPERATELY

• CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS THE PROPORTIONAL INCREASE IN AVERAGE
NUMBER OF FISHES CAUGHT FROM A GROUP WITHOUT ANY CAMPER TO A
GROUP OF IDENTICAL COMPOSITION WITH A CAMPER
• THUS WE CAN CONCLUDE THAT BRINGING CAMPER WILL INCREASE
EXPECTED NUMBER OF FISHES CAUGHT BY 85%
 CONCLUSION

• COMBINING ALL OUR RESULTS, WE CAN CONCLUDE THAT A LARGER GROUP

WILL CATCH MORE FISHES, IF THERE ARE LESS NUMBER OR CHILDREN AND
THEY HAVE BROUGHT A CAMPER
• IF ONE WOULD HAVE APPLIED O. L. S. METHOD, THE FITTED MODEL WOULD
HAVE BEEN SOMETHING DIFFERENT AND WOULD LEAD TO
MISINTERPRETATIONS
• THUS WE SHOULD USE COUNT REGRESSION MODEL IN CASE OF DISCRETE
DATA, INSTEAD OF BLINDLY APPLYING THE METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES