Journal of Safety Research: Anders Jonsson, Anders Bergqvist, Ragnar Andersson

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Journal of Safety Research 55 (2015) 99–103

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Journal of Safety Research

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jsr

Assessing the number of fire fatalities in a defined population


Anders Jonsson, a,b,⁎ Anders Bergqvist, c Ragnar Andersson a
a
Division of Risk Management, Department of Health and Environmental Sciences, Karlstad University, Karlstad SE-651 88, Sweden
b
Evaluation & Monitoring Department, Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, Karlstad SE-651 81, Sweden
c
Swedish Fire Protection Association, Stockholm SE-115 87, Sweden

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Introduction: Fire-related fatalities and injuries have become a growing governmental concern in Sweden, and a
Received 12 February 2015 national vision zero strategy has been adopted stating that nobody should get killed or seriously injured from
Received in revised form 9 August 2015 fires. There is considerable uncertainty, however, regarding the numbers of both deaths and injuries due to
Accepted 1 October 2015 fires. Different national sources present different numbers, even on deaths, which obstructs reliable surveillance
Available online 23 October 2015
of the problem over time. We assume the situation is similar in other countries. This study seeks to assess
the true number of fire-related deaths in Sweden by combining sources, and to verify the coverage of each
Keywords:
Fatal fires
individual source. By doing so, we also wish to demonstrate the possibilities of improved surveillance practices.
Fire deaths Method: Data from three national sources were collected and matched; a special database on fatal fires held by
Fire-related mortality The Swedish Contingencies Agency (nationally responsible for fire prevention), a database on forensic medical
Fire injury surveillance examinations held by the National Board of Forensic Medicine, and the cause of death register held by the
Record linkage Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare. Results: The results disclose considerable underreporting in the
single sources. The national database on fatal fires, serving as the principal source for policymaking on fire-
prevention matters, underestimates the true situation by 20%. Its coverage of residential fires appears to be better
than other fires. Conclusions: Systematic safety work and informed policy-making presuppose access to correct
and reliable numbers. By combining several different sources, as suggested in this study, the national database
on fatal fires is now considerably improved and includes regular matching with complementary sources.
© 2015 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction are differences in how individual countries define what is to be included


in their statistics.
According to WHO estimates, globally, more than 300,000 people Internationally published research on fire-related deaths and
are annually killed as a result of fires (WHO, 2004). In a global perspec- mortality usually address specific subcategories, such as dwelling fires,
tive, fires represent a significant share of deaths caused by injury, certain risk groups, evaluate different prevention measures, and so
equivalent to, for example, poisoning and drowning, with countries in forth. Few studies attempt to map the entire spectrum of fire-related
Africa, South-east Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean reporting almost deaths in a defined population. One common source for researchers to
twice as high mortality rates compared to Europe and the United States identify and describe fire deaths is medical examiner reports (Runyan,
(WHO, 2004). Bangdiwala, Linzer, Sacks, & Butts, 1992; Chernichko, Saunders, &
While mortality data are recorded in most countries, official records Tough, 1993; Barillo, & Goode, 1996; Marshall et al., 1998). Alternatively,
generally suffer from great uncertainty. Nationally reported numbers on police reports (Leth, Gregersen, & Sabroe, 1998), official mortality
fire fatalities usually originate from mortality data (WHO, 2015) or fire statistics/death certificates (DiGuiseppi, Roberts, & Li, 1998; Diekman,
brigade records (Geneva Association, 2014; European Fire Safety Ballesteros, Berger, Caraballo, & Kegler, 2008; Yau, & Marshall, 2014),
Network, 2009), often with great disparities in numbers between the or reports from fire investigators/fire service (Duncanson, Woodward,
two sources. One reason for diverging figures may be differences & Reid, 2002; Holborn, Nolan, & Golt, 2003; Anderson, & Ezekoye,
in inclusion criteria between sources, but under-reporting, over- 2013) have been used. In some studies fire records are linked with
reporting, and masked cases reported under other categories might be medical examiner reports (Istre, McCoy, Carlin, & McClain, 2002)
complementary explanations. A recent report comparing different and in countries possessing coronial reports, these have shown to be a
European countries' fire statistics (DCLG, 2012) concludes that there fruitful source to characterize fire fatalities and the circumstances lead-
ing up to the fire onset (Brennan, 1999; Harpur, Boyce, & McConnell,
2013).
In Sweden, statistics reported by the fire brigade seem fairly compa-
⁎ Corresponding author at: Division of Risk Management, Department of Environmental
and Life Sciences, Karlstad University, SE-651 88 Karlstad, Sweden. Tel.: + 46 54 700 2337. rable with statistics from the Swedish cause of death register, both
E-mail address: anders.jonsson@kau.se (A. Jonsson). showing approximately 100 fire fatalities per year (Swedish Civil

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2015.10.001
0022-4375/© 2015 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
100 A. Jonsson et al. / Journal of Safety Research 55 (2015) 99–103

Contingencies Agency, 2014; The National Board of Health and Welfare. the data due to a clause on statistical secrecy in the Public Access to In-
2014). However, without a detailed study, at individual level, the degree formation and Secrecy Act. This clause mandates strict secrecy for per-
of overlap between the sources is unknown as is the level of under- and sonal and economic data in the production of statistics and similar
over-coverage in each source. investigations, as long as they have been specifically named in govern-
Due to the existence of different sources reporting different ment regulations following from the Act. Investigations by the MSB into
numbers, and due to the lack of validity assessments of these sources accidents and rescue service responses are named in paragraph 7 of the
with regard to fire-related deaths, the knowledge of how many people Public Access to Information and Secrecy Ordinance. Consequently all
actually die from fire-related events in Sweden remains unclear. There- the data are protected at the MSB and can only be released in identifi-
fore, the aim of this study was to assess the true number of fire-related able form to research that has been approved by an ethical committee.
deaths in Sweden by combining sources and to verify the coverage of It then becomes the responsibility of the researcher to protect the
each individual source. sensitive data. It is therefore unproblematic for the other agencies to
release their data to MSB and enable the triangulation of the data.
2. Materials and methods Both the database on forensic medical examinations and the cause of
death register use the Swedish personal identity number (PIN) as iden-
Information from three different Swedish data sources were collected tifier. The database of fatal fires, which served as a starting point for the
and matched; the database on fatal fires, held by the Swedish Civil building process of a new aggregate dataset, however, lacks in the
Contingencies Agency (MSB), the database on forensic medical exami- majority of cases information on the victims' PIN. Therefore, finding
nations held by the National Board of Forensic Medicine (RMV) and the PIN was crucial and with help from RMV matching was achieved
the Cause of death register held by the Swedish National Board of by using background information such as date, location, age, sex, and
Health and Welfare (SoS). MSB is responsible for issues concerning in some cases the first and last name of victim(s). Moreover, a
civil protection, public safety, emergency management, and civil computer-based free text search on terms such as fire and smoke was
defense as long as no other authority has responsibility. Responsibility performed in order to identify possible new cases not known by MSB.
refers to measures taken before, during, and after an emergency or In the second step, the cause-of-death register was searched for
crisis. The agency serves as the national focal point for fire prevention possible additional fire-related fatalities that were not present in the
and besides the database on fatal fires the agency, for example, also database on fatal fires or the database on forensic medical examinations.
keeps records on all emergency turnouts reported from local fire SoS keeps records and produces official statistics on all deaths among
departments all over Sweden. RMV is an agency whose principal task Swedish residents, whether the deceased was a Swedish citizen or not
is to produce forensic reports required in legal cases. RMW investigates, and whether the death occurred in Sweden or abroad. The causes
at the request of the police, the cause of death in cases of determined or of death are classified according to the English version of WHO's
suspected unnatural deaths. SoS is the central government agency for International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health
matters within the fields of social services, health and medical services, Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10). We searched the register among
environmental health, communicable disease prevention and epidemi- underlying causes of death, utilizing codes presented in Table 1, and
ology. One of their official duties is maintaining health data registers then manually excluded entries that did not meet our inclusion criteria.
and official statistics. Finally, our dataset was sent back to both RMV and SoS for
We defined our target population as those deceased, within a supplementary data on each valid case (based on PIN) from their
month, as result of a fire or explosive combustion process occurring in registries. A final check by looking at all data simultaneously ensured
Sweden between 1999 and 2007. A prerequisite for a successful match that the inclusion criteria were met for all cases included. At the same
between the three databases is that they all have the same unique time, the fires were classified into either “residential fires,” “fires after
identifier for the victims to ensure that any particular individual is traffic incidents,” “fires in parked cars,” “fires in person” or “other
only included once. fires.” Other fires mainly consisted of fires in the open (e.g., grass
Personal identification numbers (PINs) were introduced in Sweden fires). The fires were also classified into either “unintentional fire” or
in 1947. Since then all residents with a permanent address have been “intentional fire.” All cases coded as intentional self-harm or assault as
assigned a unique PIN. These numbers are used widely in society in all underlying cause of death were classified as intentional. The remaining
contexts where it is important not to mix up the identity of individuals. cases where the fire brigade assessed the fire to be deliberately set, and
Concerning the health service, the use of PIN is motivated by the need cases where underlying cause of death were classified as undetermined
for the unambiguous identification of patients to promote safe and intent, were manually examined to determine intent.
effective healthcare for the individual. In addition, the use of PIN also In Table 2 we outline the concepts that we use. Source is equated
makes it possible to use medical data for educational purposes, research, with database and when we use a selection/subset from a database/
and continuous improvement of the quality of healthcare (Ludvigsson, source we call this a dataset.
Otterblad-Olausson, Pettersson, & Ekbom, 2009).
There are two legal frameworks to consider when authorities use 3. Results
health data and PIN in Sweden, the Data Protection Act and the Public
Access to Information and Secrecy Act. The Data Protection Act provides Altogether, 1,171 fire deaths were identified during the study period
a very high level of protection for health data, but the use of health data (1999–2007), equating to an average of 130 deaths per year. Of the
is permitted in research that has been approved by an ethical committee 1,171 fire deaths, 947 (81%) were registered in the database on fatal
and in the production of statistics. It should be noted that the Data fires. Out of these, one could not be found in any of the other two
Protection Act only applies to living people. The act does not influence sources. 1,110 (95%) were registered in the forensic database. Out of
how authorities use data on those who have died in fires, but does
apply when following up the status of people with potentially life
Table 1
threatening injuries from a fire.
Underlying cause of death codes related to fire. (ICD-10, English version).
The Public Access to Information and Secrecy Act contains very strict
regulations concerning the protection of personal and economic data of ICD-code
individuals, regardless of whether they are dead or alive. In normal cir- X00-X09 Exposure to smoke, fire and flames
cumstances it would be unthinkable for data from the health authorities X76 Intentional self-harm by smoke, fire and flames
or RMV to be released to MSB since the data would be available for pub- X97 Assault by smoke, fire and flames
Y26 Exposure to smoke, fire and flames, undetermined intent
lic access there. However, the statistics function at MSB is able to protect
A. Jonsson et al. / Journal of Safety Research 55 (2015) 99–103 101

Table 2
Explanation of used vocabulary and notation.

Term/notation Explanation

Target population Desired population (theoretically defined by inclusion criteria)


Assessed population Our estimate of the target population
Over-coverage Ineligible units (i.e. entries in a specific dataset not fulfilling the inclusion criteria of the target population)
Over-reporting or multiple records (i.e. a specific dataset contains duplicate entries)
Under-coverage Entries in our assessed population not found in a specific dataset
Under-reporting
Exclusive contribution Entries in our assessed population only found in a specific dataset (relative complement)
∩ Intersection (e.g. A ∩ B = entries in A and B)
U Union (e.g. A U B = entries in A or B, or both)

Database/source All cases Datasets matching our criteria

The database on fatal fires (X) (X′)


The database on forensic examinations (Y) (Y′)
The cause of death registry (Z) (Z′)

these, 12 could not be found in any of the other two sources. The cause 4. Discussion
of death register included 1,130 (96%) cases, of which 32 could not be
found in any of the other two sources. Thus, 890 deaths (76%) were This study shows that the annual number of fire-related deaths in
identified in all three sources, while 236 deaths (20%) were found in Sweden is considerably higher than previously reported when single
two sources and the remaining 45 deaths (4%) only in one of the sources sources, such as reports from the fire brigades or the national cause
(Table 3, Fig. 1). of death register, have been used. Based on the results in this study,
Table 4 provides a breakdown of the total number of fire fatalities it can be shown that the regularly reported statistics systematically
and the under-coverage in each individual dataset (X′, Y′, Z′) by type underestimate the true situation by approximately 20–25%.
of event. Of the 1,171 fire fatalities, residential fires were the most As was seen in the results, the under-coverage in single sources can
common (77%), followed by fires related to a traffic incident (10%). be substantial. There are some obvious reasons and natural explana-
The proportion of fatalities as a result of intentional fires differs consid- tions why we do not find entries from all three registers for all the fire
erably between the categories. In residential fires 92% of the fatalities deaths. Firstly, cases missing from the database of fatal fires could be
were as a result of unintentional incidents while 8% were due to due to the method of injury surveillance used by MSB. MSB identify
intentional incidents. However, in the categories “fires in parked cars” and detect fire fatalities through media reporting and the municipal
and “fires in persons” the reverse relationship was observed, with fire brigades reporting system. Some of the fire-related deaths were
more intentional incidents than unintentional. Of the cases that were never reported to the emergency services and are therefore missed.
not found in the fatal fire database (X′) (n = 224), 37% were due to Fires in person, fires in parked cars, deaths in fire due to traffic incidents,
residential fires followed by transport accidents (26%) and other fires and other fires seem to be missing to a larger extent than residential
(17%). This means, by type of event, that while X′ missed some deaths fires. For these categories, especially fires in parked cars and fires in per-
from residential fires (82 out of 903 = 9%), more than half of all deaths son, there are a greater proportion of intentional events. These events
in the other event categories were absent. Of the cases that do not more seldom lead to efforts from rescue services, which in turn may
appear in the forensic dataset (Y′) (n = 61), 61% were categorized as be an explanation for why they are absent from the database. Further-
residential fires and 38% as other fires. By type of event, Y′ missed more, there are difficulties in determining the underlying cause of
some deaths from dwelling fires (37 out of 903 = 4%), but 31% (23 of death in car crash fatalities associated with fire (Viklund, Björnstig,
75 fires) of other fires. Of the cases that do not appear in the cause of Larsson, & Björnstig, 2013) and this may cause an under-reporting in
death register (Z′) (n = 41), 46% were due to residential fires followed the fatal fire database. Additionally, approximately twice as many
by transport accidents (29%), meaning that Z′ missed very few residen- (30%) of the under-reported deaths died in hospital compared with
tial fatalities (19 out of 903 = 2%), but about 10% of all deaths from those reported (15%). This would indicate that a lack of communication
transport related fires and fires in persons (Table 4). between healthcare and rescue services might be responsible for some
Table 4 also provides a breakdown of the exclusive contributions to of the under-reporting. Secondly, in terms of the database on forensic
our assessed total number from each individual dataset (X′, Y′, Z′). The examinations and the cause of death register, the under-reporting is
database on fatal fires (X′) included one exclusive case, the forensic da- likely due to either incomplete PIN due to registration problems or
tabase (Y′) included 12 exclusive cases and the cause of death register non-Swedish citizens (cause of death register) or that no autopsy was
included 32 exclusive cases. performed (database on forensic examinations). Among the under-
reported cases in the database on forensic examinations, the average
age was 81 and it may have been determined that an autopsy was not
Table 3
required.
Estimates of fire fatalities in Sweden, 1999–2007, by source and from matching.
The under-coverage, in both cause of death (41/1,171 = 3.1%) and
Number Exclusive Under-coverage forensic examinations (61/1,171 = 5.2%) (shown in Table 4), when
contribution
applying our approach with dependent selection using PIN, is in fact
Dataset, fatal fires (X′) 947 1 224 small. The under-coverage in cause of death would be as large as 25%
Dataset, forensic examinations (Y′) 1,110 12 61 if an independent ICD selection (Table 1, underlying cause of death)
Dataset, cause of death registry (Z′) 1,130 32 41
X′ ∩ Y′ 918 28
had been used. This is due to the fact that not all of the cases we assess
X′ ∩ Z′ 918 28 as fire fatalities are coded with an external cause (as in Table 1) as the
Y′ ∩ Z′ 1,070 180 underlying cause of death. Instead, the code may be specified as a con-
X′ ∩ Y′ ∩ Z′ 890 tributing cause or not coded at all. Coding errors, coding difficulties,
X′ U Y′ U Z′ 1,171
and the fact that different ICD code abstraction strategies generate
102 A. Jonsson et al. / Journal of Safety Research 55 (2015) 99–103

fatal fires (X') 1

28

28
890

32

12

cause of death registry (Z')


forensic examinations (Y') 180

Fig. 1. Venn diagram (non-proportional) showing overlaps between, and exclusive contributions from, three sources of fire fatality data in Sweden, 1997–2007.

different cohorts are reported from related areas (Jansson, 2005; our aggregate dataset therefore strengthening the trustworthiness of
Wilhelms, Huss, Granath, & Sjöberg, 2010; Krishnan, Frew, Green, our results.
Martin, & Dziewulski, 2013). While the results in this study highlight the difficulties in assessing
During our study we also observed other problematic issues in the the true number of fire deaths in Sweden using the previously used
collection of data. We observed over-coverage, in both the database crude selections, this study also shows the importance of using different
on fatal fires and in the ICD selection from the cause of death register, data sources in order to obtain a more complete picture of the fatality,
in relation to our inclusion criteria. In the database on fatal fires, 18 especially from a preventative perspective. In order to obtain informa-
deaths were reported as fire fatalities but did not meet the inclusion tion regarding the individual, the cause of death register and the data-
criteria (duplicates (n = 3), deaths before the fire event (n = 10) and base on forensic examinations provides considerable information,
not fire-related deaths (n = 5)). In the cause of death register, 37 deaths both through the information collected directly, and the information
did not meet the inclusion criteria, primarily due to deaths occurring that is possible to link through the PIN. However, no information
outside of Sweden (n = 10), cases where victims died more than one regarding the actual fire and its causes is possible to extract. The fatal
month after the fire incident (n = 21) and not fire-related deaths fire database, meanwhile, focuses on describing the mechanisms
(n = 6). behind, and the effects of, fires. However, due to a low level of registra-
One could hypothetically assume the existence of additional cases tion of PIN the database rarely enables thorough descriptions of the
not captured by any of the sources. By using our method with three deceased persons, making it impossible to link this data with other
different sources we believe this risk is minimal. One approach to personal information. The method used in this study combines both
validate the results from our method (multi-source dependent linkage) the individual and fire-related information meaning that unique oppor-
is to merge independent selections from the database of fatal fires and tunities are available in studying and analyzing fire characteristics,
ICD selection from the cause of death register, cleaning for ineligible personal characteristics, and the circumstances surrounding fatal fires
cases and eliminate duplicate cases. Since such an approach is likely to in Sweden further.
be biased downwards a more appropriate method for validation The results from this study can be seen as a starting point in future
would be a capture–recapture analysis (Chao, Tsay, Lin, Shau, & Chao, fact-based prevention efforts in Sweden. Upcoming studies, resting on
2001). Therefore, in order to additionally validate our assessment, we a reliable multi-sourced data, will benefit the national fire service and
performed a simple two-sided capture–recapture analysis by matching government departments in their efforts to understand and develop
the cause of death and fatal fire database (mutually independent prevention strategies and programs against fatal fires. While the
sources which is a methodological prerequisite). Our analysis (not multi-sourced dataset is considerably more complete, there are also a
shown) resulted in totals very close to what we have presented from number of issues that need to be addressed in order to further improve

Table 4
Estimated numbers of fire fatalities in Sweden, 1999–2007, by type of event and degree of coverage/exclusive contribution from each source.

Residential fires Fires after traffic incidents Fires in parked cars Fires in person Other fires Total fires

Our total assessment 903 (77%) 115 (10%) 44 (4%) 34 (3%) 75 (6%) 1,171 (100%)
Unintentional 833 [92%] 100 [87%] 14 [32%] 3 [9%] 69 [92%] 1,019 [87%]
Intentional 70 [8%] 15 [13%] 30 [68%] 31 [91%] 6 [8%] 152 [13%]
Under-coverage
Dataset, fatal fires (X′) 82 (37%) 58 (26%) 25 (11%) 21 (9%) 38 (17%) 224 (100%)
Dataset, forensic examinations (Y′) 37 (61%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 1 (2%) 23 (38%) 61 (100%)
Dataset, cause of death registry (Z′) 19 (46%) 12 (29%) 1 (2%) 4 (10%) 5 (12%) 41 (100%)
Exclusive contribution
Dataset, fatal fires (X′) – – – – 1 1
Dataset, forensic examinations (Y′) 2 6 1 2 1 12
Dataset, cause of death registry (Z′) 12 – – – 20 32
A. Jonsson et al. / Journal of Safety Research 55 (2015) 99–103 103

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Acknowledgments
Anders Jonsson is a PhD student in Risk Management at Karlstad University. Part-time, he
The authors' gratefully thank the Swedish Civil Contingencies is working as a statistician within the area of accident and injury analysis at the Lessons
Agency for the financial support. Also, we would like to thank Marie Learned Section within the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency.
Ekman, The National Board of Forensic Medicine and Lars Age Johansson,
Anders Bergqvist holds a Bachelor of Science (BSc) in Fire Protection Engineering from
The National Board of Health and Welfare for their contributions. Finally, Lund University. Currently, he is the CEO of the Swedish Fire Protection Association.
we would to thank Colin McIntyre, Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency
for his contributions in the planning process and for providing language Ragnar Andersson has a combined background in engineering and public health. After
serving for fifteen years for the Swedish National Board of Occupational Safety and Health,
help. he took his PhD in social medicine at Karolinska Institutet, Sweden, in 1991 on occupational
injury prevention. Dr. Andersson is since 2001 holding a position as Professor of Risk
References Management at Karlstad University, Sweden. His research is focused on accident and
injury analysis and prevention, injury surveillance, and macro-level determinants of risk
World Health Organization (WHO), Prentice, T., Beaglehole, R., Irwin, A (2004,). The World and safety. He is also an experienced teacher and supervisor, and publishes regularly with
Health report, 2004: Changing history. World Health Organization. his students and colleagues.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) (2015). WHO mortality database. (as of July 2014).
Retrieved from http://www.who.int/healthinfo/mortality_data/en/ accessed 2015–
02-11

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