Co-ordinates

A Relative Strength Study: Week ended 12 January 2018

Nifty View

Monthly Chart
 The Nifty50 index is at an all-time high and clearly in the
overbought territory, as it flirts with the upper channel lines.

 The lower channel line or the Demand Line (DD’) is formed by

connecting the crucial long term lows of Oct 2008 and Aug
2013. A parallel Supply Line (SS’) is drawn from the intervening
highs of Nov 2010 which provided resistance to the market
during Jan - Mar 2015. Another Parallel Line PP’ has been
drawn from the Mar 2015 highs.

 After breaking through the 161.8% extension of the previous

major correction (during the year 2015) at 10536.52, and the
Supply Line SS’ at 10567.00, the index now faces strong
resistance from the Parallel Line PP’ at 10780.00.

 The 14-period RSI is also showing a negative divergence with

the index indicating that the upward momentum is losing steam.

www.abhijitpaul.com 2
Weekly Chart

 On the weekly chart of the Nifty50 index, we can see that prices
are forming a Rising Wedge pattern which is usually associated
with bearish implications. The very fact that the lines are
converging indicates that the upward price momentum is
slowing down.

 Prices are in close proximity to the upper wedge line at

10741.50 and the upper Parallel Line PP’ at 10780.00 which
might act as a strong resistance zone going ahead.

 The 14-period RSI is also showing a negative divergence with

prices indicating that the upward pace is decelerating and the
index may be ripe for a reversal.

www.abhijitpaul.com 3
Daily Chart

 The Nifty50 index formed a Dragonfly Doji on Friday which is

a bullish candlestick pattern. Although supply came in during
the first half of the session, the bulls stepped in with all
aggression and absorbed the supply taking the index to
higher grounds.

 The immediate target for the index is at the monthly R1 level

at 10710.95 followed by 10741.50, which is the upper
trendline of the Rising Wedge pattern from the weekly chart.

 If the index manages to close above the aforementioned

resistance confluence zone, the next line of resistance would
come in at the long term Parallel Line (PP’) at 10780.00.

 The 14-period RSI is also showing a negative divergence

with the index indicating that the upward momentum is
waning.

www.abhijitpaul.com 4
FnO Cues

Call Options Data

Maximum Call open interest (OI) stands at 11,000 strike (47.3 lac) followed by 10,700 strike (43.1 lac) which indicates at the presence of
strong resistance at these levels. Notably, 10,600 calls have shed 4.02 lac contracts in OI which is indicative of a weakening resistance at
this particular strike. On the other hand, 10,750 strike has added 3.7 lac OI which indicates at a developing resistance at this level.

Put Options Data

Maximum Put OI stands at 10,500 strike (81.5 lac) followed by 10,600 strike (62.8 lac) which indicates at the presence of strong support at
these levels. Notably,10,400 puts have shed 5.3 lac OI, while 10,700 puts have added 10.2 lac in OI indicating that the money is shifting
upwards.

Conclusion
From the above analysis, we can infer that the market’s perceived idea of value is somewhat shifting to the upside with resistance forming at
10,700 to 11,000 and support developing at 10,500 to 10,600 levels.

If the index manages to close above the aforesaid resistance confluence zone of 10710.95 to 10741.50, the next line of resistance would
come in at the long term Parallel Line (PP’) at 10780.00.

As the market is at an all time high, volatility is likely to increase in the near term. However, as we are in close proximity to some major
resistance levels overhead, we maintain a CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH stance on the market.

www.abhijitpaul.com 5
 SECTORAL STRENGTH MAP
Sectoral Relative Strength (RS) 0.500
Base Nifty Spot
SECTORAL INDICES PERFORMANCE %
0.400
Security Name Close RSC Score RSC Mom 5 Days 30 Days 90 Days Realty
Nifty Auto 11908.40 0.176 -0.011 4.85 9.56 41.74
Nifty Bank 25749.05 -0.055 -0.058 1.69 9.56 54.15 0.300
Nifty Energy 14438.95 0.037 0.001 1.87 22.12 66.75
Nifty FMCG 27196.65 0.136 0.042 2.79 4.95 36.83
0.200
Nifty Infra 3702.95 0.381 -0.217 5.07 15.43 39.78

RSC Momentum
IT
Nifty IT 12099.15 0.415 0.172 8.29 18.74 7.03
Nifty Metal 4189.50 0.416 0.014 14.99 42.94 103.18 0.100

Nifty Pharma 9741.85 -0.226 0.034 7.07 2.27 -13.69 FMCG

Pharma PSU Bank
Nifty PSU Bank 3639.10 0.881 0.037 -3.40 5.07 41.96 Metal
0.000 Energy
Auto
Nifty Pvt Bank 14368.20 -0.180 -0.064 2.67 9.83 52.73 -0.500 0.000 0.500 1.000 1.500 2.000
Bank
Pvt Bank
Nifty Realty 366.80 1.653 0.378 13.42 35.38 117.81
-0.100
Sectoral consolidation remained the theme last week. On a 5-day
performance basis, METALS continued to dominate followed by REALTY
and IT. However, under-performance from the banking space, especially -0.200
Infra
PSU BANKS continued to weigh in on the markets.

-0.300
RSC Score

www.abhijitpaul.com 6
AUTO RSC Score & Price Performance
RS Chart AUTO PERFORMANCE %

Security Name Close RSC Score 5 Days 30 Days 90 Days

AMARA RAJA BATTERIES LTD. 857.55 0.217 -0.52 7.33 7.15

AUTO APOLLO TYRES LTD 278.95 0.354 -0.59 11.27 10.06
0.25
0.2 ASHOK LEYLAND LTD 128.65 0.622 0.94 9.16 13.85
0.15 BAJAJ AUTO LIMITED 3175.35 -0.421 -3.19 -3.94 7.61
RSC Momentum

0.1
0.05 BHARAT FORGE LTD 730.60 0.061 -1.12 5.40 29.05
0
BOSCH LIMITED 19771.60 -0.167 0.40 -2.76 -11.08
-0.2 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
-0.1 EICHER MOTORS LTD 28649.75 -0.388 -2.01 -4.32 -10.29
-0.15
EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTD 224.20 0.153 -1.28 9.34 9.58
-0.2
-0.25 HERO MOTOCORP LIMITED 3687.35 -0.226 -1.53 1.48 -7.13
RSC Score
MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA LTD 767.50 0.297 1.47 -45.43 -42.06

MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA LTD. 9459.15 -0.145 0.27 10.00 21.00

MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LT 385.90 0.248 1.29 5.67 22.31

MRF LTD 71970.95 -0.189 -1.28 4.94 11.46

TATA MOTORS DVR 'A' ORD 252.25 0.354 -0.57 8.99 15.24

TATA MOTORS LIMITED 437.10 0.263 1.27 8.15 12.61

TVS MOTOR COMPANY LTD 750.40 -0.162 -2.16 4.76 22.46

www.abhijitpaul.com 7
BANK RSC Score & Price Performance
RS Chart BANK PERFORMANCE %

Security Name Close RSC Score 5 Days 30 Days 90 Days

BANK AXIS BANK LIMITED 555.10 -0.020 -1.45 3.68 10.27

0.25
BANK OF BARODA 163.00 -0.187 0.74 -3.61 17.77
0.2
0.15 CANARA BANK 353.95 -0.471 -2.99 -5.07 4.67
RSC Momentum

0.1
0.05
FEDERAL BANK LTD 115.05 0.357 2.63 3.98 2.59

0
HDFC BANK LTD 1865.30 -0.034 0.09 0.63 6.26
-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.1 0.2

-0.1 ICICI BANK LTD. 317.70 -0.033 1.53 3.30 6.75

-0.15
RSC Score IDFC BANK LIMITED 67.50 1.621 15.88 22.95 17.49

INDUSIND BANK LIMITED 1705.25 0.165 0.42 2.61 1.22

KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD 1023.35 0.032 2.02 2.30 3.54

PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK 174.20 -0.027 -1.02 -1.08 21.31

STATE BANK OF INDIA 302.25 -0.393 -1.34 -5.65 9.29

YES BANK LIMITED 340.90 0.577 2.42 11.08 -4.15

www.abhijitpaul.com 8
ENERGY RSC Score & Price Performance
RS Chart ENERGY PERFORMANCE %

Security Name Close RSC Score 5 Days 30 Days 90 Days

ENERGY
0.3 BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP 489.90 -0.735 0.45 -2.77 -9.15
0.2
GAIL (INDIA) LTD 501.15 -0.128 1.37 6.99 32.33
RSC Momentum

0.1

0
HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORP 425.90 -0.082 2.63 2.21 -11.62
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
-0.1

-0.2 INDIAN OIL CORP LTD 389.05 -0.405 1.35 -1.13 -9.91

-0.3
NTPC LTD 172.50 -0.254 -2.82 -4.78 1.77
-0.4
RSC Score
OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORP. 200.75 0.276 1.16 11.13 23.31

POWER GRID CORP. LTD. 196.35 -0.230 -2.43 -4.71 -9.18

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD 949.00 0.160 2.79 2.98 16.26

RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTU LTD 555.40 0.213 -3.94 26.24 7.99

TATA POWER CO LTD 99.05 0.464 -0.50 4.59 26.42

www.abhijitpaul.com 9
FMCG RSC Score & Price Performance
RS Chart FMCG PERFORMANCE %

Security Name Close RSC Score 5 Days 30 Days 90 Days

FMCG BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD 4708.30 -0.196 1.38 -2.23 10.51

0.3
COLGATE PALMOLIVE LTD. 1139.60 0.253 3.53 9.93 2.70
0.2 DABUR INDIA LTD 358.15 -0.034 -0.01 4.02 14.17
RSC Momentum

0.1 EMAMI LIMITED 1287.75 -0.198 -3.03 -1.79 16.11

0 GLAXOSMITHKLINE CONSUMER 6511.25 -0.068 1.76 6.98 22.28
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2
-0.1 GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS 991.30 -0.032 0.13 3.10 6.65

-0.2 GODREJ INDUSTRIES LTD 632.35 0.180 2.60 9.44 2.73

-0.3 HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD. 1374.00 0.012 1.29 7.98 14.01

RSC Score
ITC LTD 267.55 -0.036 1.77 4.49 -5.41

JUBILANT FOODWORKS LTD 1909.95 0.400 0.29 7.59 38.52

MARICO LIMITED 312.70 -0.278 -4.36 2.19 -0.37

P&G HYGIENE & HEALTH CARE 9298.70 -0.253 -0.30 -1.08 11.09

TATA GLOBAL BEVERAGES LTD 325.75 0.351 4.09 13.46 65.61

UNITED BREWERIES LTD 1159.90 0.564 0.74 7.06 44.64

UNITED SPIRITS LIMITED 3809.25 0.350 -3.64 15.97 48.83

www.abhijitpaul.com 10
INFRA RSC Score & Price Performance
INFRA PERFORMANCE %
RS Chart Security Name Close RSC Score 5 Days 30 Days 90 Days
ADANI PORT & SEZ LTD 423.30 0.222 -0.12 6.36 8.46
ADANI POWER LTD 44.75 0.836 -3.56 26.06 44.12
INFRA BHARTI AIRTEL LIMITED 509.55 -0.619 -5.64 2.64 25.35
0.4 BHARTI INFRATEL LTD. 374.80 -0.021 0.59 -2.32 0.79
BHEL 102.70 0.633 0.34 11.63 17.33
0.3
CESC LTD 1158.75 0.609 6.58 14.37 10.03
RSC Momentum

0.2 CG POWER AND IND SOL LTD 97.90 0.470 5.33 13.11 14.57
0.1
CONTAINER CORP OF IND LTD 1432.25 0.080 3.84 9.50 6.07
ENGINEERS INDIA LTD 194.00 -0.462 -3.10 3.41 23.02
0 GMR INFRASTRUCTURE LTD. 21.00 0.402 -0.94 14.44 22.81
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 IDEA CELLULAR LIMITED 108.60 0.360 -6.22 14.98 28.29
-0.1
INTERGLOBE AVIATION LTD 1234.00 0.075 2.95 10.03 -1.78
-0.2
IRB INFRA DEV LTD. 249.90 0.351 2.59 8.77 15.37
-0.3 LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD. 1329.15 0.226 1.08 9.26 17.97
RSC Score
NCC LIMITED 136.75 -0.009 3.56 11.13 57.82
NHPC LTD 31.70 -0.125 -5.51 11.82 11.23
NTPC LTD 172.50 -0.386 -2.82 -4.78 1.77
POWER GRID CORP. LTD. 196.35 -0.361 -2.43 -4.71 -9.18
RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTU LTD 555.40 0.088 -3.94 26.24 7.99
RELIANCE POWER LTD. 54.60 1.503 -6.98 43.68 35.65
SIEMENS LTD 1321.50 0.394 2.70 10.34 2.64
SUZLON ENERGY LIMITED 16.20 0.460 4.18 16.13 -0.92
TATA COMMUNICATIONS LTD 677.15 -0.160 0.74 -1.84 2.26
TATA POWER CO LTD 99.05 0.340 -0.50 4.59 26.42
VOLTAS LTD 633.95 -0.372 -1.92 -0.42 21.28

www.abhijitpaul.com 11
IT RSC Score & Price Performance
RS Chart IT PERFORMANCE %

Security Name Close RSC Score 5 Days 30 Days 90 Days

IT
0.2
HCL TECHNOLOGIES LTD 925.90 -0.068 2.87 9.19 7.68
0.15
INFIBEAM INCORP. LIMITED 141.35 -1.636 -1.02 -16.88 -3.25
RSC Momentum

0.1

0.05
INFOSYS LIMITED 1078.45 -0.075 6.57 10.49 19.58
0
-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
-0.05 KPIT TECHNOLOGIES LTD 202.95 0.902 0.35 18.93 73.76
-0.1
MINDTREE CONSLT LTD 633.75 0.055 5.22 17.54 39.26
-0.15
RSC Score

ORACLE FIN SERV SOFT LTD. 4125.30 -0.165 0.58 11.67 17.61

TATA CONSULTANCY SERV LT 2776.35 -0.026 3.24 5.28 11.75

TATA ELXSI (I) LTD 1038.35 0.205 3.23 10.13 18.86

TECH MAHINDRA LIMITED 550.75 0.458 4.81 12.57 28.73

WIPRO LTD 318.80 0.008 2.99 9.22 7.25

www.abhijitpaul.com 12
METAL RSC Score & Price Performance
RS Chart METAL PERFORMANCE %

Security Name Close RSC Score 5 Days 30 Days 90 Days

METAL APL APOLLO TUBES LTD 2227.30 0.222 -2.73 12.50 39.97
0.6 COAL INDIA LTD 309.00 0.655 10.85 12.04 21.73
0.4 HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD 268.85 -0.565 -2.73 11.81 11.14
RSC Momentum

0.2 HINDUSTAN COPPER LTD 93.30 -0.519 -6.23 -1.69 45.10

0 HINDUSTAN ZINC LIMITED 324.00 -0.166 3.25 8.22 6.47
-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
-0.2 JINDAL STAINLESS (H) LTD 229.00 -0.657 -1.12 9.05 27.40

-0.4 JINDAL STEEL & POWER LTD 264.85 1.874 10.79 54.03 88.77

-0.6 JSW STEEL LIMITED 286.80 -0.040 0.60 12.54 11.92

RSC Score
MOIL LIMITED 254.90 -0.120 3.87 3.58 32.90

NATIONAL ALUMINIUM CO LTD 84.05 -0.425 -3.78 2.69 13.73

NMDC LTD. 154.95 0.178 -2.27 21.43 14.91

STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA 98.65 0.084 1.28 28.45 58.35

TATA STEEL LIMITED 770.25 -0.077 -0.06 10.96 18.12

VEDANTA LIMITED 339.55 -0.168 0.00 14.93 6.74

WELSPUN CORP LIMITED 170.50 0.888 12.02 33.05 22.31

www.abhijitpaul.com 13
PHARMA RSC Score & Price Performance
RS Chart PHARMA PERFORMANCE %

Security Name Close RSC Score 5 Days 30 Days 90 Days

PHARMA
0.6
AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD 667.05 -0.453 -0.61 -3.72 -10.37
0.5
0.4
RSC Momentum

0.3 CADILA HEALTHCARE LIMITED 448.55 0.101 1.90 4.62 -12.04

0.2
0.1 CIPLA LTD 612.10 -0.259 -0.50 1.86 9.38
0
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.2 0.4
DIVI'S LABORATORIES LTD 1093.80 -0.218 -1.25 5.07 51.08
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4 DR. REDDY'S LABORATORI 2447.65 0.018 -1.04 7.16 10.80
RSC Score

GLAXOSMITHKLINE PHARMA LT 2469.95 -0.118 -0.73 -0.51 0.63

GLENMARK PHARMACEUTICALS 625.85 0.437 5.79 10.95 3.84

LUPIN LIMITED 919.10 0.142 2.11 12.40 -7.41

PIRAMAL ENTERPRISES LTD 2860.70 -0.340 0.25 3.13 6.02

SUN PHARMACEUTICALS IND. 583.45 0.310 0.81 8.06 18.62

www.abhijitpaul.com 14
PSU BANK RSC Score & Price Performance
RS Chart PSU BANK PERFORMANCE %

Security Name Close RSC Score 5 Days 30 Days 90 Days

PSU BANK
ALLAHABAD BANK 72.05 -0.118 -1.37 -5.88 3.37
2
ANDHRA BANK 57.50 -0.093 -2.04 -8.29 9.84
1.5
RSC Momentum

BANK OF BARODA 163.00 0.155 0.74 -3.61 17.77

1
BANK OF INDIA 162.65 -0.099 -5.57 -16.87 12.87
0.5
CANARA BANK 353.95 -0.131 -2.99 -5.07 4.67
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 IDBI BANK LIMITED 61.05 0.386 -4.31 0.83 9.90
-0.5
RSC Score
INDIAN BANK 374.25 0.035 -1.32 -4.69 31.13

ORIENTAL BANK OF COMMERCE 121.75 0.166 -2.05 -3.79 -4.36

PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK 174.20 0.314 -1.02 -1.08 21.31

STATE BANK OF INDIA 302.25 -0.053 -1.34 -5.65 9.29

SYNDICATE BANK 77.60 -0.078 -2.39 -16.33 19.57

UNION BANK OF INDIA 137.60 -0.243 -5.30 -16.15 -0.07

www.abhijitpaul.com 15
PVT BANK RSC Score & Price Performance
RS Chart PVT BANK PERFORMANCE %

Security Name Close RSC Score 5 Days 30 Days 90 Days

PVT BANK
0.25 AXIS BANK LIMITED 555.10 -0.094 -1.45 3.68 10.27
0.2
0.15
FEDERAL BANK LTD 115.05 0.282 2.63 3.98 2.59
RSC Momentum

0.1
0.05
HDFC BANK LTD 1865.30 -0.108 0.09 0.63 6.26
0
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.1
ICICI BANK LTD. 317.70 -0.108 1.53 3.30 6.75
-0.1
-0.15
IDFC BANK LIMITED 67.50 1.542 15.88 22.95 17.49
-0.2
RSC Score
INDUSIND BANK LIMITED 1705.25 0.091 0.42 2.61 1.22

KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD 1023.35 -0.043 2.02 2.30 3.54

RBL BANK LIMITED 530.75 0.103 -1.66 2.71 -1.23

THE SOUTH INDIAN BANK LTD 32.70 0.179 -0.61 -0.61 11.99

YES BANK LIMITED 340.90 0.502 2.42 11.08 -4.15

www.abhijitpaul.com 16
REALTY RSC Score & Price Performance
RS Chart REALTY PERFORMANCE %

Security Name Close RSC Score 5 Days 30 Days 90 Days

REALTY
0.7 BRIGADE ENTER. LTD 315.40 -0.574 2.32 3.77 17.97
0.6
0.5 DLF LIMITED 268.55 -0.199 3.31 15.13 40.38
RSC Momentum

0.4
0.3
GODREJ PROPERTIES LTD 834.75 0.685 15.10 14.63 37.44
0.2
0.1
HOUSING DEV & INFRA LTD 63.85 -0.048 -0.16 2.00 1.67
0
-0.1 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
INDIABULLS REAL EST. LTD 253.60 0.173 14.62 19.34 5.10
-0.2
RSC Score
OBEROI REALTY LIMITED 532.70 0.258 8.78 9.34 26.31

PRESTIGE ESTATE LTD 337.95 0.241 0.87 2.22 28.25

SOBHA LIMITED 592.40 -0.950 -2.17 -5.18 47.88

THE PHOENIX MILLS LTD 595.25 -0.690 3.50 15.33 17.55

UNITECH LTD 9.65 1.141 -3.02 56.91 26.97

www.abhijitpaul.com 17
 Disclaimer

This Report/Document has been prepared solely for your information. All reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not misleading
or untrue at the time of publication, but we make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. All information is for private use of the person to whom it is provided
and is not for public distribution and without any liability whatsoever on the part of www.abhijitpaul.com, any associated company, or employee thereof. This
Report/Document shall not be copied, printed, distributed or re-distributed to any person. If you are not the intended recipient of this Report/Document, you should
immediately send it to the sender. Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell. The value of any
investment may fall as well as rise. Past performance is no guide to the future. The rate of exchange between currencies may cause value of investment to increase or
diminish; consequently investors may not get back full value of their original investment. www.abhijtpaul.com shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from
action initiated by you on the basis of information provided in this Report/Document and www.abhijitpaul.com accepts no responsibility for statements made or any other
source of information received by you and you would be doing so at your own risk. This Report/Document is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any
person or entity who is a US citizen or person resident in US or who is a citizen/resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such
distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject www.abhijitpaul.com to any registration or licensing requirement
within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to a certain category of investors. Persons in whose
possession this presentation may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restrictions. www.abhijitpaul.com and our affiliates, officers, directors,
and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material, may from time to time have "long" or "short" positions in, act as principal in, and
buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein.

www.abhijitpaul.com 18