September 6, 2010 Global Economics & FI/FX Research

Commodity Outlook

Gold heading towards USD 1,600 Energy

WTI Brent Natural gas
Unit $/Barrel $/Barrel $/MMBTU

The Fed's decision to reinvest the proceeds from maturing and prepaid current 74.4 75.7 3.7

agency debt and MBS in longer-term Treasuries and to continue rolling % 1M -9.81 -8.36 -22.14

over its holdings of Treasury securities as they mature has eliminated the in 3 M 82.0 81.0 4.6
in 6 M 82.0 81.0 4.4
slight tightening bias of US monetary policy.
Ø Q2/10 78.0 80.5 4.3
Ø Q3/10e 78.0 79.0 4.6
Thus far, it is not yet clear whether this will now also result in a
Ø 2009 61.7 63.5 4.0
lengthening of the Fed balance sheet. In the past, however, the gold
Ø 2010 80.0 80.0 4.5
market reacted extremely positively to a monetization of government
Ø 2011 80.0 80.0 4.8
debt.
Industrial metals
In the second quarter of 2010, demand for gold measured in tons Copper Aluminum
increased by 34% yoy. On a USD basis, a new record was even posted Unit US$/MT US$/MT
for the quarter. The reason for this is the surge in investor demand current 7646 2121
triggered by the Fed decision and the renewed widening of CDS spreads % 1M 2.98 -3.32
in Europe. in 3 M 7000 2150
in 6 M 7300 2100

In the interim, a growing number of Chinese investors is also discovering Ø Q2/10 7072 2100

the gold market. Although China has advanced in recent years to Ø Q3/10e 7000 2000

become the world’s largest gold producer, its annual production of most Ø 2009 5186 1670
Ø 2010 7100 2100
recently 330 tons is by no means sufficient to satisfy this demand.
Ø 2011 7400 2100

Hence, China announced key gold market reforms at the beginning of Precious metals
August. Foreign companies are now permitted to offer their gold coins at Gold Silver Platinum
the Shanghai Exchange, and more banks are permitted to import gold Unit $/Ounce cts/Ounce $/Ounce
from abroad. The Chinese demand will now increasingly be felt on the current 1247.0 1966.0 1553.0
global markets. % 1M 4.98 6.73 -2.33
in 3 M 1250.0 2000.0 1550.0
We are, therefore, raising our target price for 2011 from USD 1,250 to in 6 M 1350.0 1875.0 1600.0
USD 1,400 per troy ounce. For 2012, we now expect USD 1,600 per troy Ø Q2/10 1195.0 1831.5 1629.6
ounce (in each case calendar year averages). Ø Q3/10e 1200.0 1800.0 1500.0
Ø 2009 972.6 1463.2 1203.3
Ø 2010 1200.0 1800.0 1600.0
PERSISTENTLY HIGH FED BALANCE SHEET TOTAL GIVES GOLD PRICE A
NEW BOOST Ø 2011 1400.0 1900.0 1800.0

Source: Thomson Financial Datastream,

UniCredit Research
Total factors supplying reserve funds
2500 1300
Gold price (RS)
2300
1200
2100
1100
USD per troy ounce

1900
1000
USD bn

1700

1500 900
1300 Author
800 Jochen Hitzfeld (UniCredit Bank)
1100 +49 89 378-18709
jochen.hitzfeld@unicreditgroup.de
700
900
Bloomberg
700 600 UCGR
2007 2008 2009 2010 Internet
www.research.unicreditgroup.eu

Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research

UniCredit Research page 1 See last pages for disclaimer.

 September 6, 2010 Global Economics & FI/FX Research

KEY EVENTS

US Department of Energy 09/08/2010 16:30 US crude oil, gasoline and distillates inventories
International Energy Agency 09/10/2010 Monthly oil market report

Source: UniCredit Research

Further monetization lengthened the Fed balance sheet, the gold price surged
75% (see also chart on page 1).
= new boost for the gold price
The Fed's decision to reinvest the proceeds from maturing MONETIZATION OF GOVERNMENT DEBT PROVIDES GOLD
and prepaid agency debt and MBS in longer-term Treasuries PRICE WITH A NEW BOOST
and to continue rolling over its holdings of Treasury
securities as they mature has eliminated the slight tightening US Treasury securities on the Fed balance sheet
850 1300
bias of US monetary policy. It therefore represents the exit Gold price (RS)
800
from the exit from the ultra-expansive monetary policy. 1200
750
Apparently, the latest economic data releases have raised 1100

USD per troy ounce

significant concerns about the strength of the recovery within 700

the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We assume 1000

USD bn
650

that in the coming twelve months the Fed will this way 600 900
reinvest around USD 200bn – that is 7¾% of the current Fed 550
800
balance sheet total. This decision has halted the gradual 500
shortening of the Fed balance sheet and eliminated the slight 450
700
tightening bias of US monetary policy. Moreover, it opens the
400 600
door to the further purchase of Treasury securities on a large 2007 2008 2009 2010
scale (“Quantitative Easing 2“).
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
The Fed's decision harbors two potential risks. First,
concerns about inflation remain high. Second, the decision
has encouraged the markets to consider the impact of further Gold heading towards USD 1,600 per
monetary policy measures. While investors have so far troy ounce
always consoled themselves with the notion that the US
central bank would “help in some way“ in the event of an The World Gold Council (WGC) reported extremely positive
economic slowdown, after the most recent FOMC meeting numbers for the gold market for the second quarter. Demand
they were compelled to give somewhat deeper thought to the measured in tons was up by 34% yoy.
remaining possibilities of monetary policy.
EXTREMELY STRONG RISE IN THE DEMAND FOR GOLD
Thus far, it is not yet clear whether this will also result in a
lengthening of the Fed balance sheet. The monetization of
1300 40
government debt is, however, undoubtedly of special Gold demand
% yoy (RS) 30
significance for the gold market. In the last two years, the 1200

changes in the Fed holdings of Treasuries were in each case 1100

20

the catalyst for stronger price movements on the gold 10

1000
market. In 2008, the Fed swapped Treasury securities it held
Tons

0
%

900
with the commercial banks for securities with a lower credit -10
rating. The qualitative improvement of the deposit side of the 800
-20
commercial banks was designed to restore confidence
700 -30
between the banks and thereby restore the ability of the
600 -40
interbank market to function. In the process, the total of
Treasury securities held by the Fed fell from close to USD
7

0
07

08

09

10
7

9
I/0

I/0

I/0

I/1
/0

/0

/0
/0

/0

/0
II/

II/

II/

II/
III
IV

III

IV

III
IV

800bn to less than USD 500bn. This triggered profit-taking

on the gold market, with the result that the gold price fell from Source: World Gold Council, UniCredit Research
USD 1,000 per troy ounce to USD 716. However, when the
Fed again purchased Treasury securities and this also
If the high gold price is also factored into the equation,
demand even surged 77% to a new historical record for the

UniCredit Research page 2 See last pages for disclaimer.

 September 6, 2010 Global Economics & FI/FX Research

quarter. The reason for this is the strongly rising investor was once a time when jewelry demand determined one of
demand triggered by the Fed's decision and the renewed the world’s most important asset classes. If investors were to
widening of CDS spreads in the European periphery states. switch only 1% of the global market capitalization of equities
PIMCO, the world’s largest bond fund manager, is now and bonds into gold, at the current gold price of around USD
convinced that Greece will not be able to avoid a default. In 1,250 per troy ounce, this would translate into demand of
the second quarter of 2010, investor demand for gold surged 36,000 tons. According to the US Geological Survey, this is
by 117% yoy to 534 tons. In the process, 243 tons were roughly equivalent to the known gold reserves. In reality,
purchased in the form of coins and ingots, and 291 tons via however, there will be a mix of gold purchases and increases
ETFs. For ETFs, 2010 is shaping up to match the record in gold prices. At a gold price of USD 2,500, only 18,000 tons
year thus far (2009), when for the full year 617 tons were of gold would be required to reach a share of 1%.
purchased via ETFs. As a consequence, demand was higher
than jewelry demand for the second time. China’s gold investments are booming
The Chinese government has encouraged consumers to
EXTREMELY HIGH DEMAND FOR GOLD ETFS
invest in gold, and with great success. In the last 12 months,
Gold supply in tons demand for gold totaled 532 tons. While jewelry demand is
merely stagnating, investors are increasingly discovering the
gold market. While as recently as 2008 only 17 tons of gold
ETFs & Similar Products Annual (RS)
600 700
617
were purchased, in 2009 the figure was already 73 tons. In
500 465 600 the last 12 months, demand was even 143 tons! Although
500
China has evolved into the world’s largest gold producer in
400 recent years, the annual production of most recently 330
400
300
291
321 tons is by no means sufficient to satisfy this demand.
260253 300
208
200
139 149 200
Hence, China announced important gold market reforms at
133
80 73 95 the beginning of August. Foreign companies are now
100 57 41 54 100
36
4 4
permitted to offer their gold coins at the Shanghai Exchange,
0 0 more banks are permitted to import gold from abroad, and
more domestic, gold-based investment products are to be
7

05

07

09
7

9
I/0

I/0

I/0

I/1
/0

/0

/0

20

20

20
III

III

III

developed. As a result, demand of Chinese investors will

increasingly be felt on the global market. But the Chinese
Source: World Gold Council, UniCredit Research
government also has an ever greater interest in gold imports.
In April 2009, China had reported an increase in its gold
INVESTOR DEMAND OUTSTRIPS JEWELRY DEMAND reserves from 19.29mn to 33.89mn troy ounces.
Nevertheless, they are still at a very low 1.7% of the entire
Jewelry & Industrial & Dental demand foreign exchange reserves. If China is targeting a gold
1000
Identifiable investment demand reserve of, for example, 10%, it would have to purchase
900
6,130 tons of gold or 2.4 times global annual production. If
800
China were to meet the demand only from domestic
700
600
producers, it would take 19 years to achieve this objective.
Since the gold market is per se only a very small market,
tons

500
400 further increases in the price of gold are pre-programmed.
300
200
100
0
7

0
07

08

09

10
7

9
I/0

I/0

I/0

I/1
/0

/0

/0
/0

/0

/0
II/

II/

II/

II/
III

IV

III

IV

III

IV

Source: World Gold Council, UniCredit Research

Jochen Hitzfeld
+49 89 378-18709
jochen.hitzfeld@unicreditgroup.de
These numbers are exactly in line with our central
assumption for the gold market: that gold supply will
increasingly be determined by investors. Twenty years from
now, investors will probably find it hard to imagine that there

UniCredit Research page 3 See last pages for disclaimer.

 September 6, 2010 Global Economics & FI/FX Research

COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT – NON-COMMERCIAL TRADERS

WTI: NEUTRAL NATURAL GAS: SHORT POSITIONS COULD PROVIDE A
BOOST
WTI (LS) Non-commercial net position (RS)
160 200
Natural Gas ( LS) Non-commercial net position (RS)

Long- minus short contracts, thousands

100
140

Long- minus short contracts, thousands

150 14.0
50

USD/mn British Thermal Units

120 12.0
100
0
USD/barrel

100
10.0
50 -50
80
8.0
0 -100
60
6.0 -150
40 -50
4.0 -200
20 -100
01/06 08/06 03/07 09/07 04/08 11/08 06/09 01/10 08/10 2.0 -250
01/06 08/06 03/07 09/07 04/08 11/08 06/09 01/10 08/10

Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, UniCredit Research

Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, UniCredit Research

GOLD: VERY HIGH NET LONG POSITION SILVER: NEUTRAL

Gold (LS) Non-commercial net position (RS) Silver (LS) Non-commercial net position (RS)
1400 300 21 70
Long- minus short contracts, thousands

Long- minus short contracts, thousands

1300 19 60
250
1200
17
1100 50
200
15
USD/ounce

USD/ounce

1000
40
900 150 13
30
800 11
100
700 20
9
600
50 10
7
500
400 0 5 0
01/06 08/06 03/07 09/07 04/08 11/08 06/09 01/10 08/10 01/06 08/06 03/07 09/07 04/08 11/08 06/09 01/10 08/10

Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, UniCredit Research Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, UniCredit Research

COPPER: RELATIVELY HIGH NET LONG POSITION WHEAT: NET LONG POSITION AT ALL-TIME HIGH

Copper (LS) Non-commercial net position (RS) Wheat (LS) Non-commercial net position(RS)
9000 40 1280 140
Long- minus short contracts, thousands

Long- minus short contracts, thousands

1180 120
8000 30
1080 100
20
7000 980 80
cents per bushel

10 880 60
6000
USD/ton

0 780 40
5000
-10 680 20

4000 580 0
-20
480 -20
3000 -30 380 -40
2000 -40 280 -60
01/06 08/06 03/07 09/07 04/08 11/08 06/09 01/10 08/10 01/06 08/06 03/07 09/07 04/08 11/08 06/09 01/10 08/10

Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, UniCredit Research Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, UniCredit Research

UniCredit Research page 4 See last pages for disclaimer.

 September 6, 2010 Global Economics & FI/FX Research

US STOCKPILES
CRUDE OIL GASOLINE

240 Average MIN MAX 2010 240

390 Average MIN MAX 2010 390
230 230
370 370
220 220
350 350
mn barrels

mn barrels

mn barrels

mn barrels
210 210
330 330

200 200
310 310

290 290 190 190

270 270 180 180

250 250 170 170

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: Bloomberg, DOE, UniCredit Research Source: Bloomberg, DOE, UniCredit Research

HEATING OIL NATURAL GAS

200 200 4,000 4,000

Average MIN MAX 2010
3,500 Average MIN MAX 2010 3,500
180 180
3,000 3,000
160 160
2,500 2,500
bn cubic feet

bn cubic feet
mn barrels

mn barrels

140 140 2,000 2,000

1,500 1,500
120 120
1,000 1,000
100 100
500 500

80 80 0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: Bloomberg, DOE, UniCredit Research Source: Bloomberg, DOE, UniCredit Research

Key:

The bars show the average of the last 5 years.

The vertical lines show the range of the last 5 years.

The triangle shows the last value reported for this month in 2010.

UniCredit Research page 5 See last pages for disclaimer.

 September 6, 2010 Global Economics & FI/FX Research

GLOBAL OIL PRODUCTION, 2011 FORECAST, OPEC SCENARIO, MN BPD

2010 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q 11 2011 Change 2011/10

Volume %
North America 14.48 14.42 14.43 14.44 14.61 14.48 0.00 0.00%
Western Europe 4.44 4.45 4.22 4.02 4.27 4.24 -0.20 -4.50%
OECD Pacific 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.01 1.52%
Total OECD 19.58 19.54 19.33 19.14 19.55 19.39 -0.19 -0.97%

Other Asia 3.74 3.77 3.75 3.79 3.81 3.78 0.04 1.07%
Latin America 4.71 4.87 4.92 5.01 5.11 4.98 0.27 5.73%
Middle East 1.74 1.72 1.73 1.73 1.75 1.73 -0.01 -0.57%
Africa 2.68 2.69 2.72 2.74 2.79 2.73 0.05 1.87%
Total DCs 12.87 13.05 13.12 13.27 13.46 13.22 0.35 2.72%

FSU 13.20 13.32 13.32 13.38 13.44 13.36 0.16 1.21%

Other Europe 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.00 0.00%
China 4.00 4.00 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.01 0.01 0.25%
Total "Other" Regions 17.34 17.46 17.48 17.54 17.60 17.51 0.17 0.98%

Total non-OPEC production 49.78 50.04 49.92 49.95 50.61 50.13 0.35 0.70%
Processing gains 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 0.00 0.00%
Total non-OPEC supply 51.86 52.12 52.00 52.03 52.69 52.21 0.35 0.67%
previous estimate 51.78 52.12 52.00 52.03 52.69 52.21

OPEC NGLs + non-conventional oils 4.80 5.20 5.30 5.40 5.50 5.40 0.60 12.50%

Total OPEC supply 28.71 28.60 28.03 29.32 29.42 28.79 0.08 0.28%

TOTAL OIL SUPPLY 85.37 85.92 85.33 86.75 87.61 86.40 1.03 1.21%

Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

GLOBAL OIL DEMAND, 2011 FORECAST, OPEC SCENARIO, MN BPD

2010 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q 11 2011 Change 2011/10

Volume %
North America 23.61 23.99 23.55 23.83 24.03 23.85 0.24 1.02%
Western Europe 14.02 13.79 13.63 14.04 14.19 13.92 -0.10 -0.71%
OECD Pacific 7.70 8.16 7.34 7.18 7.95 7.65 -0.05 -0.65%
Total OECD 45.33 45.94 44.52 45.05 46.17 45.42 0.09 0.20%

Other Asia 10.05 10.14 10.34 10.15 10.33 10.24 0.19 1.89%
Latin America 6.01 5.88 6.07 6.29 6.25 6.12 0.11 1.83%
Middle East 7.33 7.39 7.48 7.73 7.45 7.51 0.18 2.46%
Africa 3.29 3.35 3.34 3.24 3.37 3.32 0.03 0.91%
Total DCs 26.68 26.76 27.23 27.41 27.40 27.19 0.51 1.91%

FSU 4.00 3.88 3.77 4.20 4.26 4.03 0.03 0.75%

Other Europe 0.70 0.69 0.64 0.67 0.71 0.68 -0.02 -2.86%
China 8.65 8.65 9.17 9.42 9.07 9.08 0.43 4.97%
Total "Other" Regions 13.35 13.22 13.58 14.29 14.04 13.79 0.44 3.30%

Total World 85.36 85.92 85.33 86.75 87.61 86.40 1.04 1.22%
previous estimate 85.37 85.92 85.33 86.75 87.61 86.40
revision -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

UniCredit Research page 6 See last pages for disclaimer.

 September 6, 2010 Global Economics & FI/FX Research

COPPER SUPPLY AND DEMAND, ICSG FORECAST 2010-2011, IN 1,000 TONS

Regions Mine Production Refined Production Copper Usage

('000T) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011
Africa 952 1,076 1,345 1,598 584 672 929 1,142 297 306 338 389
North America 2,189 1,929 2,012 2,257 2,019 1,782 1,792 1,887 2,542 2,048 2,156 2,235
Latin America 6,967 7,037 7,438 7,562 3,770 3,937 4,039 4,136 578 523 560 592
Asean-10 772 1,180 1,215 989 495 544 568 615 753 687 734 770
Asia ex Asean/CIS 1,409 1,504 1,544 1,589 6,767 7,057 7,559 8,034 8,700 10,544 9,856 10,401
Asia-CIS 531 503 524 525 488 458 460 501 103 105 105 106
EU-25 709 729 802 836 2,566 2,511 2,656 2,715 3,815 3,104 3,224 3,349
Europe Others 815 774 803 826 1,041 995 1,017 1,036 1,067 759 822 861
Oceania 1,043 1,024 1,122 1,119 502 445 447 478 151 130 142 148
Total 15,387 15,756 16,805 17,301 18,232 18,401 19,467 20,544 18,006 18,206 17,937 18,851
Adjustment for Primary Feed Shortage -37 -261
Allowance for Disruptions -915 -1,189
World 15,387 15,756 16,805 17,301 18,232 18,401 18,515 19,094 18,006 18,206 17,937 18,851
% change 2.4% 6.7% 3.0% 0.9% 0.6% 3.1% 1.1% -1.5% 5.1%
Refined Production -Usage Balance 226 195 578 243

Source: International Copper Study Group

GOLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND, WORLD GOLD COUNCIL, TONS

2007 2008 2009 % change Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 % change
2009 vs Q2'10 vs
2008 Q2'09

Supply
Mine production 2473 2410 2575 6.8 637 679 674 612 659 3.5
Net producer hedging -444 -352 -254 -31 -97 -125 -26 -15
Total Mine supply 2029 2058 2321 12.8 606 582 549 586 644 6.3
Official sector sales 484 232 30 -87.1 -9 -11 -13 -38 -8 -11.1
Old gold scrap 982 1316 1673 27.1 366 297 404 350 496 35.5
Total Supply 3495 3606 4024 11.6 963 868 940 898 1132 17.5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Demand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jewellery fabrication 2417 2193 1759 -19.8 442 510 463 502 406 -8.1
Industrial and dental 465 439 373 -15.0 94 97 103 103 107 13.8
Bar & coin retail investment 444 643 503 -21.8 145 161 146 178 182 25.5
Other retail investment -10 215 228 6.0 44 36 50 23 61
Exchange traded funds & 253 321 617 92.2 57 41 54 4 291 410.5
similar
Total identifiable demand 3569 3811 3480 -8.7 782 845 816 810 1047 33.9
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Balancing Figure -74 -205 544 181 23 124 88 85

Source: World Gold Council

Disclaimer
Our recommendations are based on information obtained from, or are based upon public information sources that we consider to be reliable but for the completeness and
accuracy of which we assume no liability. All estimates and opinions included in the report represent the independent judgment of the analysts as of the date of the issue. We
reserve the right to modify the views expressed herein at any time without notice. Moreover, we reserve the right not to update this information or to discontinue it altogether
without notice.

UniCredit Research page 7 See last pages for disclaimer.

 September 6, 2010 Global Economics & FI/FX Research

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POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

UniCredit Bank AG acts as a Specialist or Primary Dealer in government bonds issued by the Italian, Portuguese and Greek Treasury. Main tasks of the Specialist are to
participate with continuity and efficiency to the governments' securities auctions, to contribute to the efficiency of the secondary market through market making activity and
quoting requirements and to contribute to the management of public debt and to the debt issuance policy choices, also through advisory and research activities.
ANALYST DECLARATION
The author’s remuneration has not been, and will not be, geared to the recommendations or views expressed in this study, neither directly nor indirectly.
ORGANIZATIONAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE ARRANGEMENTS TO AVOID AND PREVENT CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
To prevent or remedy conflicts of interest, UniCredit Bank AG, UniCredit Bank AG London Branch, UniCredit CAIB AG, UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch, UniCredit CAIB
Securities UK Ltd., UniCredit Securities, UniC ka banka, UniCredit Bank, Bank Pekao, Yapi Kredi, UniCredit Tiriac Bank,
ATFBank have established the organizational arrangements required from a legal and supervisory aspect, adherence to which is monitored by its compliance department.
Conflicts of interest arising are managed by legal and physical and non-physical barriers (collectively referred to as “Chinese Walls”) designed to restrict the flow of information
between one area/department of UniCredit Bank AG, UniCredit Bank AG London Branch, UniCredit CAIB AG, UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch, UniCredit CAIB Securities UK
Ltd., UniCredit S ka banka, UniCredit Bank, Bank Pekao, Yapi Kredi, UniCredit Tiriac Bank, ATFBank and
another. In particular, Investment Banking units, including corporate finance, capital market activities, financial advisory and other capital raising activities, are segregated by
physical and non-physical boundaries from Markets Units, as well as the research department. In the case of equities execution by UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch, other than
as a matter of client facilitation or delta hedging of OTC and listed derivative positions, there is no proprietary trading. Disclosure of publicly available conflicts of interest and
other material interests is made in the research. Analysts are supervised and managed on a day-to-day basis by line managers who do not have responsibility for Investment
Banking activities, including corporate finance activities, or other activities other than the sale of securities to clients.

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 September 6, 2010 Global Economics & FI/FX Research

ADDITIONAL REQUIRED DISCLOSURES UNDER THE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OF JURISDICTIONS INDICATED
Notice to Austrian investors
This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities and neither this document
nor any part of it shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever.
This document is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on to any other person or published, in
whole or part, for any purpose.
Notice to Czech investors
This report is intended for clients of UniCredit Bank AG, UniCredit Bank AG London Branch, UniCredit CAIB AG, UniCredit CAIB Securities UK Ltd. or UniCredit Bank AG Milan
Branch in the Czech Republic and may not be used or relied upon by any other person for any purpose.
Notice to Italian investors
This document is not for distribution to retail clients as defined in article 26, paragraph 1(e) of Regulation n. 16190 approved by CONSOB on October 29, 2007.
In the case of a short note, we invite the investors to read the related company report that can be found on UniCredit Research website www.research.unicreditgroup.eu.
Notice to Russian investors
As far as we are aware, not all of the financial instruments referred to in this analysis have been registered under the federal law of the Russian Federation “On the Securities
Market” dated April 22, 1996, as amended, and are not being offered, sold, delivered or advertised in the Russian Federation.
Notice to Turkish investors
Investment information, comments and recommendations stated herein are not within the scope of investment advisory activities. Investment advisory services are provided in
accordance with a contract of engagement on investment advisory services concluded with brokerage houses, portfolio management companies, non-deposit banks and the
clients. Comments and recommendations stated herein rely on the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations. These opinions may not suit
your financial status, risk and return preferences. For this reason, to make an investment decision by relying solely on the information stated here may not result in consequences
that meet your expectations.
Notice to Investors in Japan
This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription for or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities and neither this document
nor any part of it shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever.
Notice to UK investors
This communication is directed only at clients of UniCredit Bank AG, UniCredit Bank AG London Branch, UniCredit CAIB AG, UniCredit CAIB Securities UK Ltd. or UniCredit
Bank AG Milan Branch who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments or (ii) are persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) (“high net worth companies,
unincorporated associations, etc.”) of the United Kingdom Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 or (iii) to whom it may otherwise lawfully be
communicated (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). This communication must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant
persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this communication relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons.
Notice to U.S. investors
This report is being furnished to U.S. recipients in reliance on Rule 15a-6 ("Rule 15a-6") under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Each U.S. recipient of this
report represents and agrees, by virtue of its acceptance thereof, that it is such a "major U.S. institutional investor" (as such term is defined in Rule 15a-6) and that it understands
the risks involved in executing transactions in such securities. Any U.S. recipient of this report that wishes to discuss or receive additional information regarding any security or
issuer mentioned herein, or engage in any transaction to purchase or sell or solicit or offer the purchase or sale of such securities, should contact a registered representative of
UniCredit Capital Markets, Inc. (“UCI Capital Markets”).
Any transaction by U.S. persons (other than a registered U.S. broker-dealer or bank acting in a broker-dealer capacity) must be effected with or through UCI Capital Markets.
The securities referred to in this report may not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and the issuer of such securities may not be subject to U.S.
reporting and/or other requirements. Available information regarding the issuers of such securities may be limited, and such issuers may not be subject to the same auditing and
reporting standards as U.S. issuers.
The information contained in this report is intended solely for certain "major U.S. institutional investors" and may not be used or relied upon by any other person for any purpose.
Such information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any securities under the Securities Act of 1933, as
amended, or under any other U.S. federal or state securities laws, rules or regulations. The investment opportunities discussed in this report may be unsuitable for certain
investors depending on their specific investment objectives, risk tolerance and financial position. In jurisdictions where UCI Capital Markets is not registered or licensed to trade in
securities, commodities or other financial products, transactions may be executed only in accordance with applicable law and legislation, which may vary from jurisdiction to
jurisdiction and which may require that a transaction be made in accordance with applicable exemptions from registration or licensing requirements.
The information in this publication is based on carefully selected sources believed to be reliable, but UCI Capital Markets does not make any representation with respect to its
completeness or accuracy. All opinions expressed herein reflect the author’s judgment at the original time of publication, without regard to the date on which you may receive
such information, and are subject to change without notice.
UCI Capital Markets may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. These publications
reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future
performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to future performance.
UCI Capital Markets and any company affiliated with it may, with respect to any securities discussed herein: (a) take a long or short position and buy or sell such securities; (b)
act as investment and/or commercial bankers for issuers of such securities; (c) act as market makers for such securities; (d) serve on the board of any issuer of such securities;
and (e) act as paid consultant or advisor to any issuer.
The information contained herein may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors
that could cause a company’s actual results and financial condition to differ from expectations include, without limitation: political uncertainty, changes in general economic
conditions that adversely affect the level of demand for the company’s products or services, changes in foreign exchange markets, changes in international and domestic
financial markets and in the competitive environment, and other factors relating to the foregoing. All forward-looking statements contained in this report are qualified in their
entirety by this cautionary statement
This document may not be distributed in Canada or Australia.

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 September 6, 2010 Global Economics & FI/FX Research

UniCredit Research*
Thorsten Weinelt, CFA Dr. Ingo Heimig
Global Head of Research & Chief Strategist Head of Research Operations
+49 89 378-15110 +49 89 378-13952
thorsten.weinelt@unicreditgroup.de ingo.heimig@unicreditgroup.de

Economics & FI/FX Research

Marco Annunziata, Ph.D., Chief Economist

+44 20 7826-1770
marco.annunziata@unicreditgroup.eu

Economics & Commodity Research EEMEA Economics & FI/FX Strategy

Global Economics Cevdet Akcay, Ph.D., Chief Economist, Turkey
+90 212 319-8430, cevdet.akcay@yapikredi.com.tr
Dr. Davide Stroppa, Global Economist
+39 02 8862-2890 Matteo Ferrazzi., Economist, EEMEA
davide.stroppa@unicreditgroup.de +39 02 8862-8600, matteo.ferrazzi@unicreditgroup.eu

European Economics Dmitry Gourov, Economist, EEMEA

+43 50505 823-64, dmitry.gourov@caib.unicreditgroup.eu
Andreas Rees, Chief German Economist
+49 89 378-12576 Hans Holzhacker, Chief Economist, Kazakhstan
andreas.rees@unicreditgroup.de +7 727 244-1463, h.holzhacker@atfbank.kz

Marco Valli, Chief Italian Economist Anna Kopetz, Economist, Baltics

+39 02 8862-8688 +43 50505 823-64, anna.kopetz@caib.unicreditgroup.eu
marco.valli@unicreditgroup.de
Marcin Mrowiec, Chief Economist, Poland
Stefan Bruckbauer, Chief Austrian Economist +48 22 656-0678, marcin.mrowiec@pekao.com.pl
+43 50505 41951
stefan.bruckbauer@unicreditgroup.at Vladimir Osakovsky, Ph.D., Head of Strategy and Research, Russia
+7 495 258-7258 ext.7558, vladimir.osakovskiy@unicreditgroup.ru
Tullia Bucco
Rozália Pál, Ph.D., Chief Economist, Romania
+39 02 8862-2079
+40 21 203-2376, rozalia.pal@unicredit.ro
tullia.bucco@unicreditgroup.de
Kristofor Pavlov, Chief Economist, Bulgaria
Chiara Corsa
+359 2 9269-390, kristofor.pavlov@unicreditgroup.bg
+39 02 8862-2209
chiara.corsa@unicreditgroup.de Goran Šaravanja, Chief Economist, Croatia
+385 1 6006-678, goran.saravanja@unicreditgroup.zaba.hr
Dr. Loredana Federico
+39 02 8862-2209 Pavel Sobisek, Chief Economist, Czech Republic
loredana.federico@unicreditgroup.eu +420 2 211-12504, pavel.sobisek@unicreditgroup.cz
Alexander Koch, CFA Gyula Toth, Economist/Strategist, EEMEA
+49 89 378-13013 +43 50505 823-62, gyula.toth@caib.unicreditgroup.eu
alexander.koch1@unicreditgroup.de
Jan Toth, Chief Economist, Slovakia
Chiara Silvestre +421 2 4950-2267, jan.toth@unicreditgroup.sk
chiara.silvestre@unicreditgroup.de

US Economics
Global FI/FX Strategy
Dr. Harm Bandholz, CFA
Michael Rottmann, Head
+1 212 672 5957
+49 89 378-15121, michael.rottmann1@unicreditgroup.de
harm.bandholz@us.unicreditgroup.eu
Dr. Luca Cazzulani, Deputy Head, FI Strategy
+39 02 8862-0640, luca.cazzulani@unicreditgroup.de
Commodity Research
Chiara Cremonesi, FI Strategy
Jochen Hitzfeld
+44 20 7826-1771, chiara.cremonesi@unicreditgroup.eu
+49 89 378-18709
jochen.hitzfeld@unicreditgroup.de Dr. Stephan Maier, FX Strategy
+39 02 8862-8604, stephan.maier@unicreditgroup.eu
Nikolaus Keis
+49 89 378-12560 Giuseppe Maraffino, FI Strategy
nikolaus.keis@unicreditgroup.de +39 02 8862-2027, giuseppe.maraffino@unicreditgroup.de
Armin Mekelburg, FX Strategy
+49 89 378-14307, armin.mekelburg@unicreditgroup.de
Roberto Mialich, FX Strategy
+39 02 8862-0658, roberto.mialich@unicreditgroup.de
Kornelius Purps, FI Strategy
+49 89 378-12753, kornelius.purps@unicreditgroup.de
Herbert Stocker, Technical Analysis
+49 89 378-14305, herbert.stocker@unicreditgroup.de

Publication Address

UniCredit Research
Corporate & Investment Banking Bloomberg
UniCredit Bank AG UCGR
Arabellastrasse 12
D-81925 Munich Internet
Tel. +49 89 378-18927 - Fax +49 89 378-18352 www.research.unicreditgroup.eu

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 September 6, 2010 Global Economics & FI/FX Research

* UniCredit Research is the joint research department of UniCredit Bank AG (UniCredit Bank), UniCredit CAIB Group (UniCredit CAIB), UniCredit Securities (UniCredit Securities),
UniCredit Menkul D

UniCredit Research page 11