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Collateral Damages of A Breakdown of The Coalition Unthinkable
Collateral Damages of A Breakdown of The Coalition Unthinkable
Collateral Damages of A Breakdown of The Coalition Unthinkable
coalition unthinkable
2018-02-07
Election platforms can turn men into super heroes;
they can turn politicians into inspiring leaders; they can drive audiences into
enraged mobs; they can also turn themselves into caricatures of comical
proportions, from which empty rhetoric might resonate for a short time. Some
of the rhetoric, like that of Martin Luther King Jr., John Kennedy, Mahatma
Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru and Nelson Mandela in our recent memory and the
Ciceros and Mark Anthonies of the ancient world, will echo for ages to come.
But the results of those same elections will eventually turn these modalities into
more realistic and rational outcomes. These outcomes will eventually tell the
wise from the morons; the effective from the lazy and the great from the
mediocre. These outcome may have a direct impact on the subject people
whom the decision makers are supposed to preside over.
Set against such a directly-relatable context, when one examines the various
statements emanating from today’s election platforms, one would wonder as to
what type of government has been in power since January 15, 2015. A
confrontational political dynamic that has been set in motion by President
Sirisena has left many a supporter of the coalition between firstly Maithripala
Sirisena and Ranil Wickremesinghe and secondly the two leading political rival
parties, the United National Party (UNP) and Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP),
aghast and dumbfounded. Two weeks before a much-publicized and overly-
hyped election campaign, what President Sirisena put in process was a
calculated political gamble. In that venture, in terms of the President’s
calculations, apart from the direct effect the venture would bear on the
electorate, there would be some stirring collateral damage that would follow
the process of this confrontational dynamic he has set in.
The direct damage will include, among others, a crack in the coalition, especially
between the two leaders, Ranil Wickremesinghe and himself. That major
repercussion would eventually entail a cascade of obstacles being erected
between the two parties at every level. Starting at the Cabinet level and going
down to Parliament, this widening of the crack might even lead to open
confrontations between the lower level MPs as was seen last week. In an
extremely politicized climate as is seen in Sri Lanka today, a local government
election cannot go unnoticed and its results are now becoming relevant as some
pundits have opined during the last couple of weeks.
Two weeks before a much-publicized and overly-hyped election campaign, what
President Sirisena put in process was a calculated political gamble
To bring local government election issues onto the national platform and make
it a wide and national referendum on the central administration can be
dangerous and sometimes seem silly and utterly amateurish. Local government
elections, which usually are exclusively centred on local issues and the
credentials of local candidates, have been brought to the national stage and the
mush-maligned issue of the so-called Bond-scam is featuring predominantly on
that stage, thanks mainly to the Joint Opposition (JO).
When President Sirisena started attacking the UNP either vicariously or directly,
the wounds that were festering beneath the outer skin started oozing. This gave
rise to a sense of instability in the government ranks and the demeanour of the
Prime Minister may have helped to calm the stormy clouds, yet how the voter is
going to view in the context of the impending elections would be known only
after the poll on February 10.
Among the collateral damages that the Government would have to tackle after
the election are looming large. Among them is how each Pradeshiya Sabha or
Municipal Council would form its Council in the event no single party gains an
absolute majority to qualify for that number of winning candidates turning into
Council members. That is one major issue that predominates. Such a departure
from the agreed coexistence between the UNP and SLFP would cause many
local issues that may drift around when the ‘big’ election approaches, come
2020.
It’s extremely encouraging to know that such a meeting between the two
protagonists took place during the last few days. Quite a relaxed and
unpretentious meeting, as reported by the media, took place at the President’s
residence and some mutually beneficial and agreeable terms have been arrived
at. And the visible results of that meeting might have an unmitigated effect on
the elections. Although it would be hard to predict that a strong and powerful
political party like the Sri Lanka Freedom Party would be beaten to third place
by a fly-by-night political entity such as SLPP whose leadership is that which was
defeated by Maithripala Sirisena, the current leader of the SLFP.
Containing collateral damage looms much more difficult and large. In such a
backdrop how can the two leaders of the parties and their respective support
groups come back to trusting each other and continue a very arduous journey
together? The glory and glamour of defeating of the Rajapaksas is a faint
memory now. The people have moved on and the political leaders need to
realize that the reality of politics is changing by the day. They have to move
beyond sloganized politics and street fight-centred gerrymandering of
electioneering.
Many believe that the long wait has taken the UNP voter for granted, with
which they may not be generous this time - come 2020.
Therefore, the Local government election on February 10th will be an acid test
for the UNP, which is the main ruling party of the coalition government. It is a
test to what the UNP has been able to deliver to the masses as promised during
the last three years whether the party was able to keep up to its promises made
prior to 2015 August polls, not forgetting the fact that these promises were
given by the party under the leadership of its leader Prime Minister Ranil
Wickremesinghe. Although this election will be determined by the local issues
faced by the masses such as garbage collection, city traffic, keeping the cities
clean etc. those who voted for the UNP at the last election will look at this as a
report card to its achievements. Mainly those made under its current leader.
Therefore the UNPer will look at its captain’s knock. The local election is a
crucial test to premier Wickremesinghe where the masses would give him the
report card for what he has done during the last three years.
The next test is for the incumbent president Maithripala Sirisena, as the SLFP is
contesting under the symbol hand again after 1988. It’s a report card to the
president for what he had promised to his SLFP VOTER at the last presidential
poll though he contested as a common candidate.
However for the former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, it won’t be an acid test
at all as constitutionally he cannot contest at a future presidential election and
so he is ruled out from that fray.
Local government election on February 10th will be an acid test for the UNP,
which is the main ruling party of the coalition government
So if he may think that he could still become the president it’s a total myth and
a simple assumption of an overjoyed voter who is thus loyal to the Rajapaksas
unless the constitution is once again amended and reverts to the 18th
amendment.
Therefore power going back to Rajapaksa is an impossible thought.
Now it is learnt that those who are close to the former president are spreading
that Mahinda Rajapaksa will be appointed the prime minister after the local
government polls.
A person who has at least an inkling about the Sri Lankan political system will
not even dream of such a situation as it cannot happen constitutionally because
the local polls is not a national election. It is to find local rulers to the most
micro geographical units of the political map in the country. Whoever wins
that election will not get appointed to the second most prestigious post in this
country but will get appointed only as a Mayor to a municipal council.
But the hypothetical assumption that some have is to make Rajapaksa’s party
the ultimate victor in this local polls and create pressure and request the
president to appoint MR as premier giving MR’s support to the president at
least for the next two years.
But as a democratic, one may have to remember that fact that president
Sirisena would not have become the president if not for the overwhelming
support of the UNPer who went in numbers to the polling booths on January 8
in 2015.