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The Distinctiveness of Comparative Research - Ragin and Rubinson
The Distinctiveness of Comparative Research - Ragin and Rubinson
The set theoretic orientation of comparative and enhance statistical power (Cohen, 1988).
research invokes a case-oriented perspective: Faced with hundreds or thousands of cases,
sets are composed of elements (cases) and however, it is impossible for researchers to
comparative research is the analysis of how know the details of each case. As the cases
cases in one set relate to cases in another set. become obscured and retreat to the background,
We then discuss the issue of causal complex- variables advance to the fore. Large-N analysis,
ity. Comparative methods are especially well- then, tends to focus on variables and their
suited for the study of how combinations of relationships.
causal conditions produce particular out- The fundamental goal of variable-oriented
comes. The study of necessary and sufficient research is the production of descriptive or
conditions – a prominent concern among explanatory inferences (Brady, 2004).
comparativists – is but one aspect of compara- Descriptive inferences are produced by gen-
tive causal analysis. eralizing from patterns found within samples
We conclude our discussion of compara- (King et al., 1994). All else being equal, the
tive research by examining its formal larger a sample is the greater the researcher’s
methods. Reviewing two contemporary confidence in generalizing to a wider popu-
applications of comparative methodology, lation. Explanatory inferences are produced
we illustrate the construction and analysis of through hypothesis testing (King et al., 1994).
truth tables. Truth tables form the foundation Hypothesis testing requires a well-specified
of comparative analysis; whether explicitly theory of the relationships among variables,
or implicitly, most comparative researchers which may be confirmed or refuted by com-
construct truth tables. We demonstrate how paring the theory’s predictions against
Mill’s (1875) methods of agreement and dif- evidence. Again, all else being equal, the
ference as well as Ragin’s Qualitative larger the sample, the greater the researcher’s
Comparative Analysis (QCA) – the two dom- confidence that a relationship found in a
inant implementations of formal comparative sample does, in fact, exist in the wider popu-
methods – make use of them. QCA builds lation. As both benefit from a large number
upon and extends Mill’s methods, as we of observations, the affinity between varia-
demonstrate through analyses of causal com- ble-oriented research and quantitative meth-
plexity and counterfactual cases. ods is mutually reinforcing.
Case-oriented research and qualitative
methods, by contrast, are most useful when
applied to a small number of cases. Because
COMPARATIVE METHODS qualitative techniques leverage the research-
AS A BRIDGE er’s in-depth knowledge of cases, every addi-
tional case requires researchers to further
In describing the methodological landscape divide their attention. Examination of details
of the social sciences, it is conventional to highlights the distinctiveness of each case.
distinguish between quantitative, variable- While imposing limits on generalization and
oriented analysis and qualitative, case- thereby hindering hypothesis testing, this
oriented analysis (Ragin, 1987). There is, of focus facilitates theory development (George
course, no inherent reason that variable- and Bennett, 2005). In-depth case knowledge
oriented analysis must be quantitative and makes it easier to see which case aspects are
case-oriented analysis, qualitative (Rubinson relevant to the question at hand and how
and Ragin, 2007). Still, there is a natural these aspects fit together. This understanding
affinity, which is a consequence of the way in may be used to construct new theory or
which the number of cases influences the revise existing theory, thus generating new
research process. Quantitative techniques hypotheses for future testing.
require a large number of cases – the more, This is not to say that case-oriented research-
the better – so as to meet model assumptions ers cannot engage in hypothesis testing;
indeed, popular examples of case-oriented researchers begin their research armed with a
research include ‘crucial,’ ‘most-likely,’ and well-specified theoretical model and hypoth-
‘least-likely’ case studies that test whether a eses regarding how change in one variable
theory operates as predicted (Eckstein, 1992). affects changes in others. In contrast to these
In general, however, researchers who want to two extremes, comparativists typically begin
develop new theory tend to use qualitative, their research with a rough idea of the con-
case-oriented techniques to examine cepts, variables, and cases that are likely to
small-Ns, while those who want to test be relevant to their research question. Because
theory tend to apply quantitative, variable- comparative researchers typically study a
oriented methods to large-Ns (Ragin, 1994). moderate number of cases, it is not feasible
A consequence of this bifurcation is that to use a purely exploratory approach and
social research is characterized by a large conduct an open-ended, in-depth examina-
number of studies that examine either tion of every case. At the same time, conven-
small-Ns or large-Ns, but relatively few stud- tional hypothesis testing fails due to the
ies that examine a moderate number of cases limited degrees of freedom available. Instead,
(Ragin, 2000: 25). comparative researchers seek to answer their
Comparative research can bridge the divide research questions by examining the fit
between qualitative, case-oriented research between concepts and cases, ideas and evi-
and quantitative, variable-oriented research. dence. The notion of ‘fit’ is key. For com-
Like case-oriented methods, comparative parativists, a good theory is a middle-range
methods maintain the integrity of cases; like theory that fits the evidence well (Mjoset and
variable-oriented methods, comparative Clausen, 2007). Such a theory will identify
methods examine patterns of relationships which variables are relevant to the question
among variables. Comparative methods, at hand, explain how these variables are
then, may be used for both theory develop- related to one another, and, specify the con-
ment and hypothesis testing. With a moder- texts under which they operate.
ate number of cases (usually around 5–50), Through investigation of the fit between
it becomes possible to examine cross-case theory and data, comparativists discover
patterns while still attending to the details of areas for adjustment and improvement.
each case. In comparative research, theory Ultimately, the resulting theory must be
development and hypothesis testing interact judged on its own merits. Does the theory
in two ways. First, comparative methods may provide a compelling explanation of the
be used to develop, test, and revise a particu- observed cases? Does it explain unobserved
lar theory. Second, comparative methods or previously anomalous cases? Does it pro-
may be used to adjudicate between compet- duce observable implications and novel
ing theories. insights? Is it falsifiable? There is always a
trade-off between specificity and generality,
and theories vary in their explanatory scope.
Developing, testing, and Very specific theories may not generalize
revising theory beyond the observed cases; very general ones
may not add anything new to our understand-
Comparative methods encourage a reciprocal ing. Ultimately, whether any particular theory
relationship between theory development and is successful depends upon striking the proper
theory testing. In a strictly qualitative case- balance between specificity and generality
oriented study, researchers enter the field for the research question at hand. The advan-
armed only with sensitizing concepts, which tage of using comparative methods to develop,
they use to help them construct new theory as test, and revise theory is that they make these
they try to make sense of their cases. In a choices, considerations, and decisions
purely quantitative variable-oriented study, explicit.
Example: Berg-Schlosser and de Meur’s were subjected to the same historical events.
(1994) ‘Conditions of Democracy’ That some emerged as democratic and others
Social scientists have a longstanding interest as authoritarian suggests that each country
in the rise and evolution of democracy and possessed the potential for democratic break-
have developed a wide array of theoretical down. Expanding the sample beyond the
explanations for its emergence, persistence, small handful normally examined in com-
and breakdown. Observing that there have parative research provides a test of the gener-
been few attempts to adjudicate among these alizability of the theories: ‘all of the major
theories, Berg-Schlosser and de Meur (1994) “breakdown” cases with their specific pat-
test eight of the most prominent models pre- terns and the major “survivors,” including
dicting the success or failure of democratiza- some of the smaller countries which often
tion: Dahl (1971, 1989), Hermens (1941), tend to be overlooked, are considered’ (Berg-
Linz (1978), Lipset (1981), Luebbert (1987), Schlosser and de Meur, 1994: 254). At the
Moore (1966), Sani and Sartori (1983), and same time, the moderate sample size permits
Vanhanen (1984). Berg-Schlosser and de Berg-Schlosser and de Meur to interrogate
Meur (1994) construct their dataset by draw- the individual cases when seeking to make
ing from the inter-war period in Europe, sense of results. Indeed, to this end, the
emphasizing the similarities among the cases: researchers exclude certain countries from
For a study of the chances and failures of democ- the sample: ‘cases like Denmark and Norway
racy in a comparative perspective, the interwar have not been included because they were
period in Europe provides a unique setting, since found to add relatively little variation over
the cases to be considered share many common and above the conditions and relevant factors
socioeconomic and political-cultural characteris-
for a case like Sweden’ (Berg-Schlosser and
tics. Their history is relatively well researched and
well documented. The time period under consid- de Meur, 1994: 254). In contrast to conven-
eration is clearly demarcated by common events, tional quantitative methods, the inclusion of
the two world wars which significantly altered additional cases in comparative research is of
both the internal and external political landscapes no benefit unless they serve to better repre-
and set them apart from earlier and later develop-
sent the combinations of conditions present
ments. All cases can initially be designated as par-
liamentary democracies, some of them relatively in the population: Berg-Schlosser and de
well established, others more recent, and some Meur’s 1994 sample is representative not of
existing more in form than in substance. They Western European countries during the inter-
were subsequently affected by a common external war period per se but, rather, of the types of
stimulus, the world economic crisis of the late
countries that existed in Western Europe at
1920s and early 1930s. Some parliamentary
regimes survived, while others yielded to authori- that time.
tarian rule and, in particular, fascism. Prevailing For each theoretical model, Berg-Schlosser
assumptions concerning modernization and and de Meur (1994) examine whether the
progress, whether liberal or Marxist, were severely countries in their sample conform to the
shattered (1994: 253).
model’s predictions of democratic survival
The theories under investigation were versus breakdown. A model is confirmed
developed primarily through the examination when it correctly predicts the survival or
of Western European countries, and it is not breakdown of democracy. The attention to
clear that they should also apply to non- individual cases permits the researchers to
Western societies. In order to satisfy scope identify cases that partially support or contra-
conditions, Berg-Schlosser and de Meur dict a model’s hypothesis as well. Comparing
(1994), therefore, restrict their sample to 16 the successes and failures of each theory,
Western European countries. The limited time Berg-Schlosser and de Meur find the strong-
period seeks to satisfy possibility conditions. est support for, first, structural models that
All of the countries in the sample entered the emphasize socioeconomic conditions and,
period as parliamentary democracies and second, agency models that emphasize the
one of three basic forms: descriptive, constitu- would have nothing like the same significance,
tive, or causal. Consider, for illustration, the above all for the social structure and all the specific
problems of the modern Occident connected with
opening observation that motivates Weber’s it. Exact calculation – the basis of everything
investigation of The Protestant Ethic and the else – is only possible on a basis of free labour
Spirit of Capitalism: ‘the fact that business (1958: 22).
leaders and owners of capital, as well as the
higher grades of skilled labour, and even more Weber’s model of capitalism, then, is a
the higher technically and commercially trained combination of six essential conditions. Such
personnel of modern enterprises are over- a model is constitutive: the elements of the
whelmingly Protestant’ (1958: 35). The puzzle model are closely intertwined and together
that motivates Weber’s analysis is explaining constitute rational capitalism. For example,
the fact that people in these occupations consti- double-entry accounting ‘is also found in the
tuted a rough subset of the set of Protestants. Far East, the Near East, and in antiquity’
His observation is not simply that there is an (Weber, 1958: 22) but contributes to ‘the
‘association’ between two variables, but that a continual pursuit of profit’ only when com-
specific connection – between certain occupa- bined with free labor.
tions and Protestantism – is remarkably con- Whenever a set-theoretic connection is
sistent (they are ‘overwhelmingly’ Protestant). interpreted as evidence that something is an
He goes on to query: ‘[W]hy were the districts ‘essential’ component, aspect, or part of
of highest economic development at the same another, it may be viewed as constitutive.
time particularly favourable to a revolution in Whether a set-theoretic relation is seen as
the Church?’ (Weber, 1958: 36). Weber notes, evidence of a constitutive versus a causal
in effect, that these highly developed districts connection is a matter of interpretation. For
constitute a subset of those opposed to the example, some might interpret the fact that
Catholic Church – that again there is a remark- the advanced industrial societies are uni-
ably consistent, almost uniform, connection. As formly democratic as evidence that ‘eco-
first presented by Weber, these two set theoretic nomic development is causally sufficient for
connections are primarily descriptive in nature democratic government.’ Others, however,
because he says nothing about why these con- might avoid making a causal argument and
nections exist. interpret this same connection as evidence
Weber’s goal in The Protestant Ethic is to that having a democratic government is an
unravel the puzzle of the set-theoretic connec- essential part of being an advanced industrial
tions between capitalism and Protestantism. society. The key distinction is in how the
Defining the spirit of capitalism as the method- connection is understood and interpreted.
ical, continuous pursuit of profit, Weber begins Constitutive analysis is central to what
by elucidating the relevant characteristics of Ragin (1992) has referred to as the process of
modern capitalism: rational calculation, entre- ‘casing.’ Researchers engage in casing when-
preneurs, credit markets, the separation of ever they attempt to delineate the conceptual
work and home, and double-entry accounting boundaries of a case or set of cases.
(Weber, 1958: 17–22).1 Each of these condi- Researchers often engage in casing as they
tions, however, has existed before and, there- attempt to identify conceptually the observa-
fore, cannot be solely responsible for capitalist tions included in their analyses. In The
exchange. It is only with the rise of the labor Protestant Ethic, Weber’s primary concern is
market – ‘the rational capitalistic organization the casing of rational capitalism. He
of (formally) free labour’ (Weber, 1958: 21) – asks, ‘What is rational capitalism? How is it
that these conditions take on a modern, capi- different from other economic systems?’
talistic character: Casing seeks to answer the questions, ‘If
For without the rational capitalistic organization of I see it, how will I know?’ ‘What are its
labour, all this, so far as it was possible at all, essential elements?’
of observation (Denton, 2007). Unfortunately, three routes to modernity; that is, his three
social researchers often use the term ‘case’ to sets of modernizing revolutions. The set of
refer to both. As King et al. (1994) point out, bourgeois revolutions culminating in democ-
a single case study may involve many obser- racy include the cases of the French
vations. Thompson (1966), for example, uses Revolution and the English and American
a variety of methods to examine and synthe- civil wars. The set of conservative revolu-
size data from a variety of sources in order to tions culminating in fascism include the
explain the emergence of English working cases of Japan’s Meiji Restoration and
class consciousness. Today it is fashionable Bismarck’s unification of Germany. Finally,
to refer to such research as ‘triangulated’ or the set of peasant revolutions culminating in
‘multi-method’ (Brewer and Hunter, 2006; communism include the Russian and Chinese
Reinharz, 1992), but case study researchers revolutions. In turn, these three sets of revo-
have always leveraged a variety of data lutions constitute a subset of what might be
sources and analytic techniques in order to termed ‘modernizing revolutions.’
confirm their findings and make sense of Hobsbawm (1967) observes that ‘[t]he
their cases. As cases exist in space and across author of a comparative analysis does not
time, implicit – if not explicit – comparisons compete with the specialists; he exploits
are inevitable. Thompson’s study covers 50 them and may have to question them.’
years and spans the whole of the country. (p. 821) Within-case and comparative studies
He invites comparison of the English work- are complementary. The set theoretic nature
ers by including separate chapters on field of comparative research requires the conduct
laborers, artisans, and weavers. Likewise, his of within-case analysis, as sets are all about
examination of worker responses compares cases – the elements contained within sets –
various forms of resistance, protest, and and the characterization of cases in terms of
working-class radicalism. By the conclusion set memberships.
of the text, Thompson has reviewed the cul-
tural and structural transformations between
1780 and 1832 that gave rise to class con-
sciousness among English workers. Causal complexity in
Thompson’s project may be understood as a comparative research
comparison between the working class of
1780, a class an sich, and the working class Conventionally, researchers do not present
of 1832, a class für sich. their causal arguments in terms of set rela-
Finally, within-case analysis is an essential tions but, rather, in terms of how causes
component of good cross-case, comparative come together to produce outcomes. Moore
research. It is for this reason that some (1966), for example, speaks of ‘three routes
researchers subsume comparative research to the modern world,’ and Skocpol (1979)
under the moniker of ‘case study.’ Good discusses social revolutions as the product of
cross-case comparison necessarily involves state breakdowns and peasant revolts. Neither
the investigation of individual cases on their author makes their sets explicit, and fre-
own terms. Indeed, a common method of quently it takes some effort to discern the set
presenting comparative research is exempli- relations. However, close analysis of most
fied by Barrington Moore, Jr. (1966) in comparative work reveals a conjunctural
Social Origins of Dictatorship and understanding of causation. In essence,
Democracy. Moore spends the bulk of the causal conjunctures involve intersections of
text reviewing the individual cases (that is, conditions, which in turn can be understood
conducting within-case analysis) and offers as set intersections.
systematic comparative analysis at the con- Moore (1966), for example, identifies five
clusion. It is here that Moore constructs his conditions for the development of democracy.
1. The development of a balance to avoid too strong The study of necessity and sufficiency is a
a crown or too independent a landed aristocracy. longstanding interest of comparative research-
2. A turn toward an appropriate form of commercial ers (Goertz and Starr, 2003). A cause is nec-
agriculture. essary when the set of cases exhibiting the
3. The weakening of the landed aristocracy.
cause (e.g., state breakdown) includes the
4. The prevention of an aristocratic-bourgeois coali-
tion against the peasants and workers.
entire set of cases exhibiting the outcome
5. A revolutionary break with the past. (pp. (e.g., social revolution), The presence of state
430–31). breakdown is a necessary condition for the
occurrence of social revolution. A cause is
Each of these items involves a process of sufficient when the set of cases exhibiting the
transformation: ‘development,’ ‘turn,’ ‘weak- outcome (e.g., social revolution) includes the
ening,’ ‘prevention,’ ‘break.’ When these entire set of cases exhibiting the cause or,
processes are found together, they constitute more commonly, a combination of causes
a ‘bourgeois revolution’ which is one form of (e.g., the combination of state breakdown
‘modernizing revolutions.’ However, Moore’s and peasant revolt). The combined presence
unit of observation is not the modernizing of state breakdown and peasant revolt is a
revolution – that is his unit of analysis – but, sufficient condition for the occurrence of
rather, individual countries. Countries that social revolution.
experienced the combination of these proc- Complex conditions of necessity and suf-
esses, such as England, France, and the ficiency can combine to form what Ragin
United States, are found in the set of coun- (1987) calls ‘multiple conjunctural causa-
tries that experienced bourgeois revolutions. tion.’ Multiple conjunctural causation exists
Countries that did not experience each of when a single causal condition is neither
these processes, such as India which lacked a necessary nor sufficient to produce the out-
revolutionary break with the past, are not come on its own but, rather, only in combina-
found in the set of countries that experienced tion with other causal conditions.
bourgeois revolutions. Moreover, India is not Re-examining Gamson’s (1990) social pro-
found among the set of countries that experi- test data, for example, Ragin (1989) finds
enced modernizing revolutions of any form that challenging groups (social movement
(bourgeois, conservative, or peasant), which organizations) secure new advantages for
according to Moore explains its long-term their constituents if they satisfy any one
stagnation (Moore, 1966: chapter 6). of the following combinations of causal
Skocpol’s subtitle – A Comparative Analysis conditions.
of France, Russia, and China – immediately
reveals countries as her units of observation. 1. No bureaucratic organization, middle or mixed
Searching for necessary and sufficient condi- strata constituents, no help from outsiders, and
tions of social revolution, Skocpol uncovers acceptance by antagonists.
2. Middle or mixed strata constituents, non-dis-
important subset relations. First, countries that
placement goals, and help from outsiders.
experience social revolution are a subset of
3. Bureaucratic organization, lower strata constitu-
countries that experience state breakdown or ents, non-displacement goals, and acceptance by
peasant revolt. Second, countries that experi- antagonists.
ence state breakdown combined with peasant 4. Non-displacement goals, help from outsiders, and
revolt are a subset of countries that experience acceptance by antagonists (pp. 392–93).
social revolution. The first relationship – in
which the outcome is a subset of the cause – While any one of these combinations of
identifies a relationship consistent with neces- conditions will result in the challenging
sity; the second relationship – in which the group securing new advantages, there is no
cause is a subset of the outcome – identifies one individual cause common to all combina-
that is consistent with sufficiency. tions. Mackie (1974) refers to such causes as
INUS causes because each is an Insufficient occurred. Cities in the analysis have the following
(not sufficient by itself) but Necessary com- characteristics in common: the population was
over 25,000, the steel industry was an important
ponent of a causal combination that is, itself, employer, black workers were a significant part of
Unnecessary (due to multiple paths) but the steel workforce, and the recruitment efforts of
Sufficient to bring about the outcome. the national committee reached each location
during the organizing drive. We selected cases
from Foster’s (1920) account of the organizing
drive and include only those locations that actually
participated in the strike. The final group of 16
METHODS OF COMPARATIVE cases ranges in size from single-industry towns to
ANALYSIS major multi-industry cities. (1995: 1497–98)
suspected might affect the connection Brown and Boswell (1995) find that all but
between black migration and strong unions, one of the possible combinations is repre-
on the one hand, and black strikebreaking, on sented by at least one city; of those, two
the other: city size, whether the city was combinations are associated with the emer-
dominated by US Steel or Bethlehem Steel, gence of black strikebreaking. The causal
and local government repression. The addi- combination that is not represented in the
tion of the third condition, local government sample is referred to as a ‘remainder’ (Ragin
repression, yielded a truth table free of con- et al., 2006b) and is identified by marking the
tradictions and also was confirmed as caus- outcome with a dash (–). Remainders are
ally relevant in their case studies. common because social phenomena are
A truth table consists of one row per logi-
cally possible combination of conditions. A Table 1.2 Truth table for the presence of
truth table, then, has 2k rows, where k equals Black strikebreaking, derived from
the number of causal conditions. As the Brown and Boswell (1995: 1505, Table 5)
number of causal conditions increases, and M U R Y Cases
the size of the truth table grows exponen-
1 1 1 1 1 East Chicago, Pittsburgh,
tially, analysis become increasingly complex. Youngstown
Software packages such as fsQCA (Ragin 2 1 1 0 –
et al., 2006a) can help to manage this com- 3 1 0 1 1 Buffalo, Chicago, Gary,
plexity; nevertheless, most practitioners exam- Johnstown
ine between five and ten causal conditions. To 4 1 0 0 0 Cleveland
5 0 1 1 0 Bethlehem, Joliet,
construct the truth table, the researcher refers
McKeesport,
to the previously specified dataset and records New Castle, Reading
which combinations of causal conditions are 6 0 1 0 0 Milwaukee
associated with the presence of the outcome 7 0 0 1 0 Decatur
and which are associated with its absence.5 8 0 0 0 0 Wheeling
Brown and Boswell’s (1995) final truth table Note: M = recent black migration, U = weak union,
is presented in Table 1.2. R = political repression, Y = black strikebreaking
characterized by limited diversity (Ragin, The researcher first applies the method of
1987: 104–13; 2000). That is, many of the agreement to the positive cases exhibiting the
logically possible combinations of causal outcome. Upon identifying a causal condi-
conditions simply do not exist in reality. (We tion (or causal combination) associated with
address the issue of limited diversity, espe- the outcome, the researcher examines the
cially its relation to counterfactual analysis, negative cases to see if the absence of
in greater detail below). the outcome is associated with the absence of
the cause. Referring again to Brown and
Boswell’s (1995) truth table (Table 1.2), the
Mill’s methods of agreement method of difference reconfirms the initial
and difference conclusion that black strikebreaking is a
product of recent black migration and politi-
The classic techniques of comparative meth- cal repression. Of the five configurations that
odology are those proposed by Mill (1875). exhibit the absence of strikebreaking, none
The simplest of all comparative logics, the exhibits the presence of both recent black
method of agreement is also the most likely migration and political repression.
to lead to faulty conclusions. The logic As the indirect method of difference com-
behind the method of agreement holds that prises two applications of the method of
any given outcome will, inevitably, have a agreement, the same two limitations apply to
single cause. By examining a sample of cases both methods. The first – the threat of an
exhibiting the same outcome, a researcher omitted variable – is common to all compara-
seeks to identify the single cause that all tive research methods and, indeed, all social
cases have in common. Ragin (1987: 36) research methods. Researchers may draw the
extends this logic to encompass combina- wrong conclusion when important causes are
tions of conditions, arguing that the success- omitted. If the identified causal condition is,
ful identification of a shared combination of itself, caused by an antecedent condition, the
causally relevant conditions would also sat- researcher’s explanation will be incomplete.
isfy the method of agreement. Applying the Spurious relationships raise a similar type of
method of agreement to Brown and Boswell’s issue. If both the identified causal condition
(1995) truth table (Table 1.2), reveals that all and the outcome are caused by an omitted
instances of black strikebreaking occurred in third condition, the researcher may identify
cities characterized by recent black migra- the wrong condition as causing the outcome.
tion and political repression. According to In this latter situation, one hopes that the
Mill’s method of agreement, then, the error will be uncovered as the researcher
research will conclude that the combined examines his or her cases and when attempt-
presence of recent black migration and polit- ing to elucidate how the condition causes the
ical repression caused black strikebreaking. outcome. The second and more significant
The process by which the cause produces the limitation of the method of agreement is that
outcome remains to be explained. In the it is incapable of addressing multiple con-
absence of a well-specified theory, such junctural causation. As Mill (1875), himself,
explanations are generally best developed emphasized, when an outcome has more than
through the application of within-case meth- one cause, the method of agreement will not
ods such as process tracing. be able to identify any of them:
Mill’s indirect method of difference – That some one antecedent is the cause of a given
what Ragin (1987: 39) refers to as ‘a double effect because all other antecedents have been
application of the method of agreement’ – found capable of being eliminated, is a just infer-
ence only if the effect can have but one cause. If it
leverages negative cases (that is, cases that admits of several, nothing is more natural than
do not exhibit the outcome) in order to that each of these should separately admit of
strengthen the researcher’s conclusions. being eliminated. (1875: 474–5)
conducted a series of case studies of shaming 4. Inconvenience (I): The inconvenience [to the
attempts, Stokke (2007) identifies five causal target] of the behavioral change that the shamers
conditions that affect whether shaming seek to elicit.
attempts are successful. 5. Reverberation (R): Domestic-level political costs
if shamers scandalize [the target] as a culprit.
(p. 503)
1. Advice (A): Whether the shamers can substantiate
Having conducted his case studies and
their criticism by reference to explicit advice by
identified his causal conditions, Stokke
the regime’s scientific body.
2. Commitment (C): Whether the target behavior (2007) produces a truth table which we have
violates explicit commitments. reproduced as Table 1.3.7 With five causal
3. Shadow of the future (S): The target’s perceived conditions, the corresponding truth table has
need to strike future deals and whether ignor- 32 logically possible combinations. The
ing the criticism will jeopardize such beneficial ten cases are distributed among eight con-
arrangements. figurations, resulting in 24 remainders (two
Table 1.3 Truth table for the presence of shaming, with counterfactual
conditions (based on Stokke, 2007, Table 1)
A C S I R Y Cases
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Compliance
2 1 1 1 1 0 0 EC unilat. 1
3 1 1 1 0 1 –
4 1 1 1 0 0 1 EC unilat. 2
5 1 1 0 1 1 –
6 1 1 0 1 0 –
7 1 1 0 0 1 –
8 1 1 0 0 0 –
9 1 0 1 1 1 1 Overfishing
10 1 0 1 1 0 –
11 1 0 1 0 1 –
12 1 0 1 0 0 –
13 1 0 0 1 1 0 Mesh-size 2
14 1 0 0 1 0 0 Mesh-size 1
15 1 0 0 0 1 –
16 1 0 0 0 0 1 Krill report, Krill cap2
17 0 1 1 1 1 –
18 0 1 1 1 0 –
19 0 1 1 0 1 –
20 0 1 1 0 0 –
21 0 1 0 1 1 –
22 0 1 0 1 0 –
23 0 1 0 0 1 –
24 0 1 0 0 0 –
25 0 0 1 1 1 –
26 0 0 1 1 0 –
27 0 0 1 0 1 –
28 0 0 1 0 0 –
29 0 0 0 1 1 –
30 0 0 0 1 0 0 Loophole, Krill cap 1
31 0 0 0 0 1 –
32 0 0 0 0 0 –
Note: A = Advice, C = Commitment, S = Shadow of the Future, I = Inconvenience, R = Reverberation
possibility conditions, the less portable the counterfactual existed?’ Instead of running a
argument becomes. thought experiment, however, the comparative
Counterfactual analysis provides a means by researcher need only include the remainder in
which comparativists can balance particularity the analysis. Whether to incorporate a particu-
and generality. Exploring how the hypothetical lar counterfactual case is a determination that
presence or absence of a causal condition must be made upon the basis of substantive
would affect the outcome under investigation, and theoretical knowledge (Ragin and Sonnett,
counterfactual analysis is predominantly asso- 2004). Two criteria must be evaluated. Is the
ciated with case-oriented research. In fact, all counterfactual case plausible? And, if so, is it
social research involves counterfactual analysis reasonable to think that it would produce the
in some way (Lieberson, 1985) but case- outcome in question? Depending upon how it
oriented researchers tend to make their counter- affects the set relations within the truth table,
factual theorizing explicit (Fearon, 1991). In the inclusion of remainders may result in a
comparative research, counterfactual cases Boolean equation that is more parsimonious,
form the basis of thought experiments through more complex, or the equivalent of the origi-
which researchers assess a theory’s plausibility nal solution. Researchers must use their sub-
(Weber, 1905). stantive and theoretical knowledge to evaluate
Counterfactual analysis is particularly the feasibility of any solution resulting from
useful as a theory development tool the inclusion of counterfactuals.
(McKeown, 2004). Recognizing the com- Software packages such as fsQCA (Ragin
plexity of the social world, researchers tend et al., 2006a) simplify the process of con-
to be conservative when constructing theo- ducting counterfactual analysis. For example,
ries. Preferring to claim too little rather than by incorporating all remainders that produce
too much, social researchers are more likely a simpler result, fsQCA can be used to iden-
to make errors of omission rather than com- tify the most parsimonious solution possible
mission. Counterfactual analysis provides a for any truth table. Applying this procedure
means by which to test the implications of a to Stokke’s truth table (Table 1.3) produces a
theory (McKeown, 2004) and thereby assess dramatically simpler solution:
the viability of more parsimonious variants.
For any given analysis a researcher may con- s
i + SR Y
struct a variety of counterfactual cases.
Frequently, just a single causal condition is which indicates that shaming will be success-
altered; more complex analyses examine a ful when (a) it is not inconvenient for the
range of hypothetical conditions. targets of the shaming to change their behav-
Truth tables permit a systematic approach ior or (b) when future considerations and
to counterfactual analysis, one which encom- present political costs are high.
passes both simple and complex counterfactu- This solution and the previous solution of
als. As previously discussed, the social world the same truth table can be considered two
is characterized by limited diversity. In truth endpoints on a continuum that runs from
tables, limited diversity manifests itself as complexity to parsimony. Observe that the
‘remainders’ – the logically possible configu- complex solution (Acsir + ACSir + ASIR) is
rations of causal conditions that lack empirical a subset of the parsimonious solution (i +
instances. Representing ‘events that did not SR). Cases of shaming that involve the
happen’ (Lieberson, 1985: 45), remainders absence of inconvenience to the target – that
serve as counterfactual cases in comparative is, members of set i include members of sets
research (Ragin and Sonnett, 2004). Acsir and ACSir. Likewise, cases of shaming
Counterfactual analysis using remainders that invoke a shadow of the future and rever-
is straightforward: the researcher asks berations – members of set SR – include
‘How would my conclusions change if the members of set ASIR. The presence of this
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