Ohio Department of Public Safety

June 2017
 Speed Limit Analysis – 70 MPH
June 2017

Executive Summary
The Ohio State Highway Patrol Speed Limit Analysis – 70 MPH provides important information
concerning crashes on Ohio’s roadways before and after the recent speed limit increase from 65 mph to
70 mph that occurred in 2013. This speed limit increase impacted approximately 570 miles of rural
interstates (effective 7/1/2013) and 398 miles of rural freeways (effective 9/29/2013). Researchers
examined crash data from two years before (i.e., 2011-2012) and two years after (i.e., 2014-2015) the
speed limit change. The analyses and results presented in this report are offered to help better
understand the safety impacts of this recent speed limit increase. Notable findings include:

 24% increase in crashes on 70 mph roads from before (7,884) to after (9,812) the speed limit
change. This includes 22% more fatal and injury crashes (1,915 to 2,341).

 27% increase in commercial-involved crashes on 70 mph roads (2,184 to 2,775), including a 33%
increase in fatal and injury crashes (490 to 651).

 16% increase in speed-related crashes on 70 mph roads (4,525 to 5,254). This includes an 18%
increase in fatal and injury crashes (1,270 to 1,498).

 66% increase in lane change-related crashes on 70 mph roads (1,391 to 2,307). This includes
66% more fatal and injury crashes (368 to 610).

 20% increase in rear-end crashes on 70 mph roads (1,182 to 1,416), including a 35% increase in
fatal and injury crashes (453 to 611).

 23% increase in sideswipe (same direction) crashes on 70 mph roads (1,066 to 1,316). This
includes a 23% increase in fatal and injury crashes (185 to 228).

 57% increase in weekend crashes (i.e., Saturday-Sunday) on 70 mph roads (1,975 to 3,102).

 78% of five mile segments on 70 mph roads showed an increase in crashes from before to after
the speed limit change.

 Results from a linear regression model revealed statistically significant increases in severe (i.e.,
fatal and injury) crashes on 70 mph roads after the speed limit change.

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June 2017

Crash Comparison by Five Mile Segments

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Comparison of Major Findings

Before Period 1/1/2011 – 12/31/2012
After Period 1/1/2014 – 12/31/2015
Interstates Freeways All 70 mph Roads All Other Roads
-5% change +58% change +9% change -3% change
Fatal Crashes
(2 fewer crashes) (7 more crashes) (5 more crashes) (50 fewer crashes)
+21% change +28% change +23% change -1% change
Injury Crashes
(304 more crashes) (117 more crashes) (421 more crashes) (984 fewer crashes)
+23% change +32% change +25% change +1% change
PDO Crashes
(1,121 more crashes) (381 more crashes) (1,502 more crashes) (1,881 more crashes)
+23% change +31% change +24% change +0.2% change
Total Crashes
(1,423 more crashes) (505 more crashes) (1,928 more crashes) (847 more crashes)
Vehicles
Commercial +23% change +54% change +27% change +9% change
Crashes (450 more crashes) (141 more crashes) (591 more crashes) (3,364 more crashes)
Commercial At- +22% change +67% change +27% change +7% change
Fault Crashes (274 more crashes) (110 more crashes) (384 more crashes) (1,498 more crashes)
Motorcycle +9% change +42% change +16% change -12% change
Crashes (4 more crashes) (5 more crashes) (9 more crashes) (905 fewer crashes)
Drivers
Young Driver +20% change +30% change +22% change -4% change
Crashes (339 more crashes) (144 more crashes) (483 more crashes) (7,463 fewer crashes)
Older Driver +23% change +44% change +27% change +5% change
Crashes (397 more crashes) (166 more crashes) (563 more crashes) (7,755 more crashes)
OVI-Related +24% change -24% change +9% change +1% change
Crashes (51 more crashes) (23 fewer crashes) (28 more crashes) (372 more crashes)
Contributing Circumstances
Speed-Related +13% change +27% change +16% change +5% change
Crashes (478 more crashes) (251 more crashes) (729 more crashes) (12,164 more crashes)
Lane Change- +71% change +46% change +66% change +21% change
Related Crashes (786 more crashes) (130 more crashes) (916 more crashes) (9,735 more crashes)
Manner of Collision
+16% change +35% change +20% change -1% change
Rear-End Crashes
(158 more crashes) (76 more crashes) (234 more crashes) (2,186 fewer crashes)
Sideswipe (Same +21% change +38% change +23% change +10% change
Direction) Crashes (195 more crashes) (55 more crashes) (250 more crashes) (3,960 more crashes)
Temporal Factors
+61% change +42% change +57% change +1% change
Weekend
(965 more crashes) (162 more crashes) (1,127 more crashes) (1,061 more crashes)
Best Environ. +8% change +49% change +15% change -3% change
Conditions (143 more crashes) (178 more crashes) (321 more crashes) (5,847 fewer crashes)
Interstates: ~570 miles of rural interstates that increased speed limits to 70 mph on 7/1/2013.
Freeways: ~398 miles of rural freeways (i.e., US and State routes) that increased speed limits to 70 mph on 9/29/2013. Does not include 19.5
miles of US-24 and 9 miles of US-33 that were newly constructed roadways not open during the entire before period.
All 70 MPH Roads: all roads (i.e., interstates and freeways) that increased speed limits to 70 mph in 2013.
All Other Roads: all other roads in Ohio that did not experience an increase from 65 to 70 mph in 2013.

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Ohio Roads Increased to 70 mph in 2013

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 Speed Limit Analysis – 70 MPH
June 2017

Data Parameters
Before: January 1, 2011 – December 31, 2012
After: January 1, 2014 – December 31, 2015
Interstates: ~570 miles of rural interstates that increased speed limits to 70 mph on 7/1/2013.
Freeways: ~398 miles of rural freeways (i.e., US and State routes) that increased speed limits to
70 mph on 9/29/2013; does not include 19.5 miles of US-24 and 9 miles of US-33 (newly
constructed roadways not open during the entire before period).
All 70 MPH Roads: all roads (i.e., interstates and freeways) that increased speed limits to 70 mph in
2013.
All Other Roads: all other roads in Ohio that did not experience an increase from 65 to 70 mph in 2013.
Crash: all crashes referenced in this report exclude those that were animal-related or occurred on
private property, an entrance/exit ramp, or in a construction zone.

Definitions and Acronyms

Angle: crash with CollisionTypeID = 6.
At-Fault CMV: crash with any UnitTypeID = 13-22 and CircumstanceID = 2-21.
Best Environmental Conditions: crash with PrimaryRoadConditionID = 1; PrimaryLightConditionID = 1;
WeatherConditionID = 1; and SecondaryLightConditionID = 7.
CMV: commercial motor vehicle (medium/heavy trucks or combo units greater than 10,000 pounds, including
buses); UnitTypeID = 13-22.
Day of Week: weekday (Monday-Friday); weekend (Saturday-Sunday).
Defective Equipment: crash with CircumstanceID = 19.
Lane Change-related: crash with CircumstanceID = 8 or 10.
Load Shift: crash with CircumstanceID = 20.
Motorcycle: crash with any UnitTypeID = 9 or 10.
MPH: miles per hour.
MVMT: million vehicle miles traveled.
Not Collision: crash with CollisionTypeID = 1.
OH1: official Ohio Traffic Crash report.
Older Driver: crash with any Driver Age 55-119.
Other Circumstance: crash with CircumstanceID = 2-4, 7, 11-14, 16, 18, 21, 23-30, or 99.
Other/Unknown Manner of Collision: crash with CollisionTypeID = 3-5, 8, or 9.
OVI: operating a vehicle while impaired (alcohol and/or drug related); crash with IsAlcoholRelated = yes and/or
IsDrugRelated = yes.
PDO: property damage only.
Rear-End: crash with CollisionTypeID = 2.
Season: spring (March-May); summer (June-August); fall (September-November); winter (December-February).
Severe: crash with a fatality and/or injury; SeverityID = 1 or 2.
Sideswipe (same direction): crash with CollisionTypeID = 7.
Speed-related: crash with CircumstanceID = 5, 6, 9, or 17; or IsSpeedRelated = yes.
Swerving: crash with CircumstanceID = 15.
Time of Day: night (12:00am-5:59am); morning (6:00am-11:59am); afternoon (12:00pm-5:59pm); evening
(6:00pm-11:59pm).
Young Driver: crash with any Driver Age 12-24.

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Table of Contents
Executive Summary............................................................................................................................................... 1
Map: Crash Comparison by Five Mile Segments .................................................................................................. 2
Comparison of Major Findings .............................................................................................................................. 3
Map: Ohio Roads Increased to 70 mph in 2013 ................................................................................................... 4
Data Parameters ................................................................................................................................................... 5
Definitions and Acronyms ..................................................................................................................................... 5
Traffic Safety on Ohio’s Roadways........................................................................................................................ 7
Historical Background on Speed Limits................................................................................................................. 7
Identifying the Impact of Speed Limit Increases................................................................................................... 8
Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................ 9
Crash Analysis ....................................................................................................................................................... 9
Traffic Crashes ................................................................................................................................................ 10
Vehicles ........................................................................................................................................................... 10
Commercial Motor Vehicle Crashes ........................................................................................................... 10
At-Fault Commercial Motor Vehicle Crashes ............................................................................................. 11
Motorcycle Crashes .................................................................................................................................... 12
Drivers............................................................................................................................................................. 12
Young Driver Crashes.................................................................................................................................. 12
Older Driver Crashes................................................................................................................................... 13
OVI-Related Crashes ................................................................................................................................... 13
Contributing Circumstances ........................................................................................................................... 14
Speed-Related Crashes ............................................................................................................................... 14
Lane Change-Related Crashes .................................................................................................................... 15
Manner of Collision ........................................................................................................................................ 15
Rear-End Crashes........................................................................................................................................ 16
Sideswipe (Same Direction) Crashes .......................................................................................................... 16
Temporal Factors ............................................................................................................................................ 17
Time of Day................................................................................................................................................. 17
Day of Week ............................................................................................................................................... 17
Season ........................................................................................................................................................ 18
Best Environmental Conditions .................................................................................................................. 19
Location .......................................................................................................................................................... 19
Largest Change in Fatal and Injury Crashes ................................................................................................ 20
Regression Analysis ............................................................................................................................................. 21
Summary ............................................................................................................................................................. 23

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Traffic Safety on Ohio’s Roadways

Ohio ranks 35th among all states in terms of geographical size, but it maintains some of the largest
roadway infrastructures and volumes of traffic in the nation. More specifically, Ohio has over 121,000
miles of public roadways, including more than 1,500 miles of Interstate Highways; over 3,900 miles of US
Highways; and over 13,900 miles of State Highways.1 During the last 23 years, vehicle miles traveled in
Ohio (measured in millions; MVMT) Figure 1. Fatalities and MVMT in Ohio
increased 21% (from 97,522 MVMT in
1,600 130,000
1993 to 117,829 MVMT in 2015; see
1,400 120,000
Figure 1). Conversely, traffic fatalities
110,000

Traffic Fatalities
decreased 25% during those same years 1,200

MVMT
(from 1,479 to 1,110). Although Ohio 100,000
1,000
has experienced long-term trends of 90,000
800
decreased fatalities despite increased Traffic Fatalities
80,000
exposure (i.e., MVMT), it is important to 600 70,000
MVMT
examine the effects of the recent speed 400 60,000

1995
1993

1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
limit increase on Ohio’s rural freeways
and interstates in 2013.

Historical Background on Speed Limits

During the past four decades, speed limits across the United States have experienced at least three
major changes.2 In 1974, the National Maximum Speed Law set a 55 miles per hour (mph) speed limit for
all states. Congress repealed this limit in 1987 by passing the Surface Transportation and Uniform
Relocation Assistance Act of 1987 which allowed states to raise the speed limit up to 65 mph on rural
interstates. Eight years later, the National Highway System Designation Act of 1995 removed federal
restrictions on speed limits by allowing states to set their own speed limits on the roadways within their
boundaries.

In Ohio, the first increase above 65 mph occurred in 2010 when the Ohio Turnpike Commission raised
the speed limit to 70 mph for all vehicles on the Ohio Turnpike (effective 4/1/2011).3 More recently,
during the 130th Ohio General Assembly, House Bill 51 proposed increasing the speed limit to 70 mph on
rural freeways.4 In 2013, Governor Kasich signed this into law (ORC 4511.21B14).5 This speed limit
increase went into effect for approximately 570 miles of rural interstate routes on 7/1/2013 and for 398
miles of rural freeways on 9/29/2013 (i.e., US and State Routes; see map on p. 3). To better understand
the impact of this recent speed limit increase, the next section provides a brief overview of previous
studies on the subject.

1 Ohio County Profiles. Retrieved December 23, 2016 from http://development.ohio.gov/files/research/C1001.pdf

2 For a brief review, see Friedman, L., Hedeker, D., & Richter, E. (2009). Long-term effects of repealing the national maximum
speed limit in the United States. American Journal of Public Health, 99(9), 1626-1631.
3 Ohio Turnpike Commission Resolution No. 48-2010. Retrieved December 16, 2016 from

http://www.ohioturnpike.org/docs/default-source/resolutions/resolutions-2010/48-2010_Speed_Limit_70_MPH.pdf
4 House Bill 51, 130th General Assembly. Retrieved December 16, 2016 from

http://archives.legislature.state.oh.us/BillText130/130_HB_51_EN_N.pdf
5 Ohio Revised Code § 4511.21. Retrieved December 16, 2016 from http://codes.ohio.gov/orc/4511.21

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Identifying the Impact of Speed Limit Increases

Over the years, an abundance of research has analyzed traffic crashes in order to improve traffic safety.
This research has largely focused on crash frequency and crash severity, and a variety of different
samples and analytic techniques have been used.6 For example, when considering the impact of
increased speed limits, some researchers examine only the subset of crashes on specific roadways
where the speed limit increase occurred,7 while others suggest looking at the system-wide effects by
analyzing statewide crashes.8 Additionally, to identify changes in traffic safety, one must have at least
two groups to compare. Previous research has used a variety of comparison groups including increased
roadways versus similar non-increased roadways;9 crashes on roads before versus after the increase;10
and states that raised speed limits versus states that did not.11

Moreover, analytic techniques have ranged from descriptive statistics12 and odds ratios13 to ordered
probit models14 and a variety of regression models including time series regression,15 Poisson mixed-
regression,16, 17 and multinomial logit models.18 Taken together, there is not a universal way to analyze
the impact of speed limit increases on traffic safety. Decisions about what data to analyze and how to
analyze it depend on data availability, areas of interest, and elapsed time since the speed limit change
occurred.

Finally, research on the effects of increased speed limits has yielded mixed results. Some studies show
increased speed limits are associated with more fatalities,19 both in states which increased from 55 to 65
mph20 and from 65 to 70 mph.21 However, at least one study showed a decrease in statewide fatality
rates for some states that increased from 55 to 65 mph.22 Still other research has shown no statistically
significant association between increased speed limits and crashes23 or crash severity24 for some states
that increased from 65 to 70 mph. Overall, findings on the effects of speed limit increases have been

6 For a comprehensive review, see Mannering, F., & Bhat, C. (2014). Analytic methods in accident research: Methodological
frontier and future directions. Analytic Methods in Accident Research, 1, 1-22.
7 Baum, H., Lund, A., & Wells, J. (1989). The mortality consequences of raising the speed limit to 65 mph on rural interstates.

American Journal of Public Health, 79(10), 1392-1395.

8 Lave, C., & Elias, P. (1994). Did the 65 mph speed limit save lives? Accident Analysis and Prevention, 26(1), 49-62.
9 Renski, H., Khattak, A., & Council, F. (1999). Impact of speed limit increases on crash injury severity: Analysis of single-vehicle

crashes on North Carolina interstate highways. Transportation Research Board, 78th Annual Meeting (preprint).
10 Malyshkina, N., & Mannering, F. (2008). Effect of increases in speed limits on severities of injuries in accidents. Transportation

Research Record, No. 2083, 122-127.

11 Lave, C., & Elias, P. (1994).
12 Souleyrette, R., Stout, T., & Carriquiry, A. (2009). Evaluation of Iowa’s 70 mph speed limit – 2.5 year update. Final Report

(Center for Transportation Research and Education, Iowa State University).

13 Baum, H., Lund, A., & Wells, J. (1989).
14 Renski, H., Khattak, A., & Council, F. (1999).
15 Garber, S., & Graham, J. (1990). The effects of the new 65 mile-per-hour speed limit on rural highway fatalities: A state-by-

state analysis. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 22(2), 137-149.

16 Friedman, L., Hedeker, D., & Richter, E. (2009).
17 Farmer, C. (2016). Relationship of traffic fatality rates to maximum state speed limits. Insurance Institute for Highway Safety,

April 2016, 1-14.

18 Malyshkina, N., & Mannering, F. (2008).
19 Farmer, C. (2016).
20 Garber, S., & Graham, J. (1990).
21 Friedman, L., Hedeker, D., & Richter, E. (2009).
22 Lave, C., & Elias, P. (1994).
23 Souleyrette, R., Stout, T., & Carriquiry, A. (2009).
24 Malyshkina, N., & Mannering, F. (2008).

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June 2017

inconsistent due, in part, to the variety of data sources, samples, and analytic techniques employed by
researchers. In this report, researchers analyzed data from Ohio crashes to gain a better understanding
of the impact on traffic safety related to the recent 70 mph speed limit increase in the state.

Methodology
Members of the Ohio State Highway Patrol’s (OSHP) Statistical Analysis Unit (SAU) identified crashes
from the State’s official electronic crash repository: Ohio Department of Public Safety’s (ODPS)
electronic crash database. While most previous research has been limited to examining overall crash
frequency or severity, the ODPS electronic crash database provides an abundance of information which
can be used in several important ways. First, the ODPS system contains location based information that
GIS Specialists can use to more accurately identify crash locations. Second, the ODPS system provides
data from all fields captured on the OH1 crash report. These include variables related to the crash as
well as persons and vehicles involved in the crash. Third, the retention period for electronic crash
records was recently extended from five to ten years, thereby allowing researchers more time to
thoroughly analyze crash issues. Overall, the ODPS electronic crash database allows for a detailed
analysis of crashes in the state.

Because the speed limit increase went into effect at different times for separate roadways during 2013,
this report compares crash data from two complete years before the increase (i.e., 2011-2012; ‘before’)
to two years after (i.e., 2014-2015; ‘after’). Crashes located on entrance or exit ramps, in construction
zones, on private property, or animal-related crashes were removed from the final sample. GIS
Specialists identified which crashes occurred on segments of interstate routes and freeways that
experienced the recent speed limit increase.25 Among the final sample of crashes, there were three
distinct subsamples of crashes that occurred on: 1) interstates that increased; 2) freeways that
increased; and 3) all other roads that did not experience an increase from 65 to 70 mph in 2013. The
primary focus of this report is on the 70 mph roadways. However, crashes on “all other roads” are
included here not as a similar comparison group but rather to provide perspective on the crash picture
on remaining roads in the state of Ohio.26

In addition to analyzing the frequency and severity of crashes before and after the speed limit increase,
the current report also explores the vehicles involved (e.g., CMV, motorcycle), drivers involved (e.g.,
young, older), contributing circumstances (e.g., speed-related), manner of collision (e.g., rear-end
collision), when crashes happened (e.g., weekend, season), and the location of crashes on specific
segments of roadway. Finally, a modeling analysis using linear regression was performed to explore the
effects of the speed limit increase while statistically controlling for other relevant variables.

Crash Analysis
Researchers first analyzed the frequency of crashes that occurred on roadways before and after the
speed limit increase followed by looking at smaller subsets of crashes. This includes an examination of

25 Because 19.5 miles of US-24 and 9 miles of US-33 were newly constructed roadways that were not open during the entire
before period, crashes on those specific portions were excluded from the subset of freeways that increased.
26 Although a similar comparison group might be interstates and freeways that did not increase their speed limit to 70 mph,

these are mostly urban roadways which differ characteristically from the rural roads on which the speed limit increased. Thus,
this makes it difficult to find a similar comparison group.

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 Speed Limit Analysis – 70 MPH
June 2017

the drivers, vehicles, circumstances, and locations which can all be influenced by changes in speed
limits. Additional analyses within these subsections are also presented, when sufficient sample size
allows for a reliable comparison.

Traffic Crashes Table 1. Crashes by Severity

Roadway Severity Before After Diff (%)
Crashes on 70 mph roads increased 24% from Fatal 44 42 -5%
before (7,884 crashes) to after (9,812 crashes) Injury 1,440 1,744 +21%
Interstates
the speed limit increase (see Table 1). This PDO 4,792 5,913 +23%
Total 6,276 7,699 +23%
includes a 23% increase on interstates (6,276 to
Fatal 12 19 +58%
7,699) and a 31% increase on freeways (1,608 Injury 419 536 +28%
Freeways
to 2,113). All other roads in Ohio experienced a PDO 1,177 1,558 +32%
less than 1% increase in crashes (504,180 to Total 1,608 2,113 +31%
Fatal 56 61 +9%
505,027) during the same time period.
All 70 mph Injury 1,859 2,280 +23%
Roads PDO 5,969 7,471 +25%
In addition to looking at total crashes, it is
Total 7,884 9,812 +24%
important to consider those with greater Fatal 1,825 1,775 -3%
severity such as fatal and injury crashes. Fatal All Other Injury 135,451 134,467 -1%
crashes on 70 mph interstates and freeways Roads PDO 366,904 368,785 +1%
Total 504,180 505,027 +0.2%
went up 9% after the speed limit change (56 to
61), compared to a 3% decrease in fatal
crashes on all other roads (1,825 to 1,775) Figure 2. Percent Change in Crashes by Severity
during that time (see Figure 2). Moreover, the Fatal
30%
number of injury crashes went up 23% on 70 23% 25% Injury
mph roads (1,859 to 2,280) but decreased 1% 20% PDO
on all other roads (135,451 to 134,467). When 9%
10%
considering fatal and injury crashes together, 1%
these increased 22% on 70 mph roads (1,915 0%
to 2,341) and decreased 1% on all other roads -10% -3% -1%
(137,276 to 136,242), a pattern of change that
All 70 mph Roads All Other Roads
was statistically significant [χ2(1) = 45.22, p <
.001].27

Vehicles
In addition to looking at all crashes on 70 mph roads, it is informative to explore how the speed limit
increase affected different types of vehicles. This section provides data on commercial motor vehicle
(CMV) involved crashes as well as motorcycle crashes.

Commercial Motor Vehicle Crashes

For the purposes of this report, commercial motor vehicles (CMVs) are medium/heavy trucks or combo
units greater than 10,000 pounds and include buses. Because larger vehicles require more time to
completely stop, allowing them to legally travel at faster speeds may subsequently result in more

27A chi-square test of independence was used to compare the proportion of severe crashes by time period across road types.
For more information see Siegel, S., & Castellan, N. J. (1988). Nonparametric statistics for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). New
York, NY: McGraw-Hill.

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 Speed Limit Analysis – 70 MPH
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crashes involving CMVs. Previous research on Table 2. CMV Crashes by Severity

Ohio Turnpike crashes showed a 32% increase Roadway Severity Before After Diff (%)
in CMV crashes when the speed limit increased Fatal 21 21 0%
Injury 405 532 +31%
from 55 to 65 mph for commercial vehicles in Interstates
PDO 1,499 1,822 +22%
2004.28 Moreover, research has demonstrated Total 1,925 2,375 +23%
that crashes involving CMVs have more severe Fatal 3 4 +33%
injury levels than crashes not involving CMVs.29 Injury 61 94 +54%
Freeways
PDO 195 302 +55%
Taken together, it is important to consider
Total 259 400 +54%
whether the recent speed limit increase also Fatal 24 25 +4%
impacted CMV-involved crashes in the state. All 70 mph Injury 466 626 +34%
Roads PDO 1,694 2,124 +25%
When examining the subset of CMV-involved Total 2,184 2,775 +27%
crashes, those on 70 mph roads increased 27% Fatal 248 251 +1%
All Other Injury 7,511 8,375 +12%
from before (2,184) to after (2,775) the speed Roads PDO 30,158 32,655 +8%
limit increase (see Table 2). More specifically, Total 37,917 41,281 +9%
CMV crashes increased 23% on interstates
(1,925 to 2,375) and 54% on freeways (259 to 400). On all other roads, commercial-related crashes
increased 9% (37,917 to 41,281) during this time frame.

Finally, the more severe crashes (i.e., fatal and injury) increased 33% (from 490 to 651) on all 70 mph
roadways. This includes a 30% increase on interstates (426 to 553) and a 53% increase on freeways (64
to 98). Commercial-involved fatal and injury crashes on all other roads increased 11% (from 7,759 to
8,626) during the same time. This pattern of change was statistically significant [χ2(1) = 8.33, p < .01].

At-Fault Commercial Motor Vehicle Crashes

A further way to analyze commercial-involved Table 3. At-Fault CMV Crashes by Severity

crashes is by considering only those where the Roadway Severity Before After Diff (%)
CMV driver was at-fault in the crash. As shown Fatal 6 11 +83%
Injury 246 315 +28%
in Table 3, at-fault CMV crashes increased 27% Interstates
PDO 998 1,198 +20%
on 70 mph roads from before (1,414) to after Total 1,250 1,524 +22%
(1,798) the speed limit increase. This includes a Fatal 1 3 +200%
22% increase on interstates (1,250 to 1,524) Injury 33 62 +88%
Freeways
PDO 130 209 +61%
and a 67% increase on freeways (164 to 274).
Total 164 274 +67%
At-fault CMV crashes on all other roads Fatal 7 14 +100%
experienced a 7% increase (21,784 to 23,282) All 70 mph Injury 279 377 +35%
over this time. Additionally, examining only the Roads PDO 1,128 1,407 +25%
Total 1,414 1,798 +27%
more severe crashes (i.e., fatal and injury) Fatal 73 73 0%
revealed a 37% increase (286 to 391) on 70 mph All Other Injury 3,703 4,044 +9%
roads that included a 29% increase on Roads PDO 18,008 19,165 +6%
interstates (252 to 326) and a 91% increase on Total 21,784 23,282 +7%

freeways (34 to 65). On all other roads in the

28 Ohio State Highway Patrol, Office of Strategic Services (2007). Ohio Turnpike and parallel routes project – Safety and traffic
report. Final Evaluation.
29 Castro, M., Paleti, R., & Bhat, C. (2013). A spatial generalized ordered response model to examine highway crash injury

severity. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 52, 188-203.

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state, at-fault CMV fatal and injury crashes increased 9% during this time (3,776 to 4,117). This pattern
of change was significantly different across 70 mph roads versus all other roads [χ2(1) = 7.83, p < .01].

Motorcycle Crashes

In addition to CMV-involved crashes, it is also informative to examine crashes involving motorcycles as

these are associated with more severe injuries.30 Motorcycle-involved crashes on 70 mph roads
increased 16%, from 58 (before) to 67 (after; see Table 4).31 In particular, motorcycle crashes increased
9% on 70 mph interstates (46 to 50) and 42% on
70 mph freeways (12 to 17). On all other roads in Table 4. Motorcycle Crashes
Ohio, motorcycle-involved crashes decreased Roadway Before After Diff (%)
Interstates 46 50 +9%
12% (7,657 to 6,752) during the same time Freeways 12 17 +42%
period. Although motorcycle crashes increased All 70 mph Roads 58 67 +16%
on 70 mph roads and decreased on all other All Other Roads 7,657 6,752 -12%
roads, this pattern of change was not statistically
significant [χ2(1) = 2.26, p = .13].

Drivers
Researchers also looked at how the speed limit increase impacted the individuals involved in crashes.
This section provides results for crashes involving young, older, and impaired drivers.

Young Driver Crashes

For the purposes of this report, young driver Table 5. Young Driver Crashes by Severity
crashes include all crashes that involved at least Roadway Severity Before After Diff (%)
Fatal 14 13 -7%
one driver under the age of 25. As shown in
Injury 440 492 +12%
Table 5, crashes involving young drivers Interstates
PDO 1,250 1,538 +23%
increased 22% on 70 mph roads (from 2,186 to Total 1,704 2,043 +20%
2,669 crashes). This includes a 20% increase on Fatal 2 4 +100%
Injury 121 155 +28%
interstates (1,704 to 2,043) and a 30% increase Freeways
PDO 359 467 +30%
on freeways (482 to 626). By comparison, Total 482 626 +30%
crashes involving young drivers decreased 4% Fatal 16 17 +6%
on all other roads in Ohio (188,748 to 181,285) All 70 mph Injury 561 647 +15%
Roads PDO 1,609 2,005 +25%
during the same time period. Similar trends Total 2,186 2,669 +22%
were seen in the subset of fatal and injury Fatal 541 501 -7%
crashes with these more severe crashes All Other Injury 54,173 51,719 -5%
increasing 15% on 70 mph roads (577 to 664) Roads PDO 134,034 129,065 -4%
Total 188,748 181,285 -4%
but decreasing 5% on all other Ohio roads
(54,714 to 52,220) from before to after the speed limit increase. This pattern of change was statistically
significant [χ2(1) = 10.71, p < .01].

30 National Center for Statistics and Analysis. (2015, May). Motorcycles: 2013 data. (Traffic Safety Facts. Report No. DOT HS 812
148). Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
31 There are not enough motorcycle-involved crashes across the three severity levels to warrant a robust comparison; thus, only

the total number of motorcycle-involved crashes are reported here.

12
 Speed Limit Analysis – 70 MPH
June 2017

Older Driver Crashes

In addition to focusing on crashes involving young drivers, it is also important to consider how the speed
limit increase affected older drivers. For the purposes of this report, crashes involving older drivers are
those with at least one driver who was age 55 or older. As shown in Table 6, crashes involving older
drivers increased 27% on 70 mph roads from
Table 6. Older Driver Crashes by Severity
before (2,082) to after (2,645) the 70 mph Roadway Severity Before After Diff (%)
speed limit increase. This includes a 23% Fatal 16 16 0%
increase on interstates (1,707 to 2,104) and a Injury 390 535 +37%
Interstates
PDO 1,301 1,553 +19%
44% increase on freeways (375 to 541). On all
Total 1,707 2,104 +23%
other roads in Ohio, crashes involving older Fatal 4 11 +175%
drivers increased 5% (159,943 to 167,698) Injury 103 148 +44%
Freeways
during the same time frame. Considering only PDO 268 382 +43%
Total 375 541 +44%
those crashes with greater severity, fatal and
Fatal 20 27 +35%
injury crashes increased 38% on 70 mph roads All 70 mph Injury 493 683 +39%
(513 to 710), including a 36% increase on Roads PDO 1,569 1,935 +23%
interstates (406 to 551) and a 49% increase on Total 2,082 2,645 +27%
Fatal 644 687 +7%
freeways (107 to 159). Severe crashes involving
All Other Injury 44,888 46,995 +5%
older drivers on all other roads increased 5% Roads PDO 114,411 120,016 +5%
(45,532 to 47,682) during the same time. This Total 159,943 167,698 +5%
pattern of change was significantly different
between 70 mph roads versus all other roads [χ2(1) = 23.01, p < .001].

OVI-Related Crashes
Table 7. OVI-Related Crashes by Severity
One final group of drivers to consider are those Roadway Severity Before After Diff (%)
who were impaired by alcohol or drugs. In the Fatal 13 11 -15%
current dataset, an OVI-related crash is one that Injury 90 108 +20%
Interstates
PDO 109 144 +32%
involved at least one driver who was under the
Total 212 263 +24%
influence of alcohol, drugs, or both. On 70 mph Fatal 7 2 -71%
roadways, OVI-related crashes increased 9% Injury 43 37 -14%
Freeways
from before (307) to after (335; see Table 7). PDO 45 33 -27%
Total 95 72 -24%
This includes a 24% increase on interstates (212
Fatal 20 13 -35%
to 263) but a 24% decrease on freeways (95 to All 70 mph Injury 133 145 +9%
72). OVI-related crashes on all other roads Roads PDO 154 177 +15%
increased 1% (26,603 to 26,975) during the Total 307 335 +9%
Fatal 774 654 -16%
same time comparison.
All Other Injury 11,347 11,336 -0.1%
Roads PDO 14,482 14,985 +3%
A further way to examine OVI-related crashes is
Total 26,603 26,975 +1%
by considering only those with greater severity.
OVI-related fatal and injury crashes increased 3% on all 70 mph roads (153 to 158). This includes a 16%
increase on interstates (103 to 119) but a 22% decrease on freeways (50 to 39). On all other roads, OVI-
related fatal and injury crashes decreased 1% (12,121 to 11,990) during the same time period. However,
this pattern of change was not statistically significantly different [χ2(1) = 0.14, p = .71].

13
 Speed Limit Analysis – 70 MPH
June 2017

Contributing Circumstances Table 8. Crashes by Contributing Circumstances

Roadway Circumstance Before After Diff (%)
In addition to examining the vehicles and Speed 3,607 4,085 +13%
drivers involved in crashes, researchers Lane Change 1,110 1,896 +71%
also analyzed why crashes occurred (i.e., Swerving 193 180 -7%
Interstates
Defect. Equip. 608 440 -28%
contributing circumstances). There are a
Load Shift 142 217 +53%
variety of circumstances that can Other 800 520 -35%
contribute to a crash, and OH1 crash Speed 918 1,169 +27%
reports allow for a primary contributing Lane Change 281 411 +46%
Swerving 47 60 +28%
circumstance to be assigned to each driver Freeways
Defect. Equip. 106 144 +36%
involved in the crash. Some of the more Load Shift 53 67 +26%
common contributing circumstances are Other 216 137 -37%
shown in Table 8.32 In the following Speed 4,525 5,254 +16%
Lane Change 1,391 2,307 +66%
sections, researchers further explored two All 70 mph Swerving 240 240 0%
of the more common contributing Roads Defect. Equip. 714 584 -18%
circumstances in crashes: speed and lane Load Shift 195 284 +46%
change. Other 1,016 657 -35%
Speed 248,193 260,357 +5%
Speed-Related Crashes Lane Change 45,485 55,220 +21%
All Other Swerving 7,845 5,418 -31%
For purposes of this report, speed-related Roads Defect. Equip. 5,639 3,831 -32%
Load Shift 2,182 2,352 +8%
includes any crash that: 1) involved a Other 206,061 183,985 -11%
primary contributing circumstance of Note. Each driver involved in a crash may be given a primary contributing
exceeded speed limit, unsafe speed, circumstance; thus, the total contributing circumstances sums to more
than the total number of crashes.
followed too closely/ACDA, or failure to
control; or 2) involved at least one vehicle whose speed exceeded the posted speed limit on that road.
Overall, speed-related crashes on 70 mph roads increased 16% from before (4,525) to after (5,254) the
speed limit increase (see Table 9). By
comparison, speed-related crashes on all other Table 9. Speed-Related Crashes by Severity
roads increased 5% during that time (248,193 to Roadway Severity Before After Diff (%)
Fatal 21 21 0%
260,357). Injury 977 1,118 +14%
Interstates
PDO 2,609 2,946 +13%
Additionally, there were 18% more fatal and Total 3,607 4,085 +13%
injury speed-related crashes on 70 mph roads Fatal 4 7 +75%
after the speed limit increase (1,498) than Freeways
Injury 268 352 +31%
before (1,270). In particular, there was a 14% PDO 646 810 +25%
Total 918 1,169 +27%
increase in fatal and injury speed-related Fatal 25 28 +12%
crashes on interstates (998 to 1,139) and a 32% All 70 mph Injury 1,245 1,470 +18%
increase on freeways (272 to 359). On all other Roads PDO 3,255 3,756 +15%
Total 4,525 5,254 +16%
roads, severe speed-related crashes increased
Fatal 780 856 +10%
3% (71,145 to 73,569) during the same time All Other Injury 70,365 72,713 +3%
period. This pattern of change in severe crashes Roads PDO 177,048 186,788 +6%
Total 248,193 260,357 +5%

32 To provide a more reliable comparison of changes, only those specific contributing circumstances with at least 200 crashes
total on 70 mph roadways are presented separately in Table 8. For comparison purposes, similar types of contributing
circumstances are grouped together (see Definitions and Acronyms section).

14
 Speed Limit Analysis – 70 MPH
June 2017

was significantly different across 70 mph roads versus all other roads [χ2(1) = 11.70, p < .001].

Finally, within these speed-related crashes, those involving CMVs increased 25% (928 to 1,163), crashes
involving young drivers increased 15% (1,501 to 1,723), and those involving older drivers increased 21%
(1,056 to 1,275) on 70 mph roads. These increases outpaced crash changes for these subsets on all other
roads in the state (see Appendix).

Lane Change-Related Crashes Table 10. Lane Change-Related Crashes by Severity

Roadway Severity Before After Diff (%)
In addition to examining speed-related crashes Fatal 10 14 +40%
in more detail, researchers also further analyzed Injury 269 473 +76%
Interstates
lane change-related crashes. These contributing PDO 831 1,409 +70%
circumstances include driving left of center as Total 1,110 1,896 +71%
Fatal 5 10 +100%
well as improper lane change/passing/off road Injury 84 113 +35%
Freeways
actions. Overall, lane change-related crashes PDO 192 288 +50%
increased 66% on 70 mph roads (1,391 to 2,307; Total 281 411 +46%
Fatal 15 24 +60%
see Table 10), a pattern that was constant even
All 70 mph Injury 353 586 +66%
when focusing only on more severe fatal and Roads PDO 1,023 1,697 +66%
injury crashes (368 to 610; 66% increase). Total 1,391 2,307 +66%
Specifically, lane change-related fatal and injury Fatal 439 447 +2%
All Other Injury 11,010 13,612 +24%
crashes increased 75% on interstates (279 to
Roads PDO 34,036 41,161 +21%
487) and 38% on freeways (89 to 123). On all Total 45,485 55,220 +21%
other roads, these more severe lane change-
related crashes increased 23% (11,449 to 14,059) during the same time frame. This pattern of change
was significantly different [χ2(1) = 20.07, p < .001].

Finally, within these lane change-related crashes, those involving CMVs increased 49% (551 to 819),
crashes involving young drivers increased Table 11. Crashes by Manner of Collision
56% (403 to 630), and those involving Roadway Circumstance Before After Diff (%)
older drivers increased 56% (455 to 710) Angle 399 433 +9%
on 70 mph roads. These increases were Not Collision 3,907 4,920 +26%
Interstates Rear-End 964 1,122 +16%
larger than crash increases for each of
Sideswipe/same 921 1,116 +21%
these subsets on all other roads in Ohio Other/Unknown 85 108 +27%
(see Appendix). Angle 108 131 +21%
Not Collision 1,100 1,455 +32%
Manner of Collision Freeways Rear-End 218 294 +35%
Sideswipe/same 145 200 +38%
Another important consideration is how Other/Unknown 37 33 -11%
crashes occurred before and after the Angle 507 564 +11%
Not Collision 5,007 6,375 +27%
speed limit increase. Each OH1 crash All 70 mph
Rear-End 1,182 1,416 +20%
report lists one manner of collision, Roads
Sideswipe/same 1,066 1,316 +23%
including impacts such as rear-end, head- Other/Unknown 122 141 +16%
on, angle, and not a collision between two Angle 128,535 125,938 -2%
Not Collision 130,097 131,306 +1%
motor vehicles in transport, among others. All Other
Rear-End 155,375 153,189 -1%
The most common manners of collision Roads
Sideswipe/same 40,103 44,063 +10%
Other/Unknown 50,070 50,531 +1%

15
 Speed Limit Analysis – 70 MPH
June 2017

are listed in Table 11.33 In particular, rear-end crashes on 70 mph roads increased 20% from before
(1,182) to after (1,416) the speed limit increase. On all other roads in Ohio, rear-end crashes decreased
1% during that time (155,375 to 153,189). Additionally, sideswipe (same direction) crashes increased
23% on 70 mph roads (1,066 to 1,316) while these type of crashes were up only 10% on all other roads
(40,103 to 44,063). The next two sections explore these specific types of crashes in greater detail.

Rear-End Crashes Table 12. Rear-End Crashes by Severity

Roadway Severity Before After Diff (%)
Researchers further analyzed the subset of rear- Fatal 11 +18% 13
end crashes. As discussed previously, rear-end Injury 361 +34% 482
Interstates
crashes increased 20% on all 70 mph roads PDO 592 +6% 627
(1,182 to 1,416) which includes a 16% increase Total 964 +16% 1,122
Fatal 3 -33% 2
on interstates (964 to 1,122) and a 35% increase Injury 78 +46% 114
Freeways
on freeways (218 to 294; see Table 12). When PDO 137 +30% 178
considering only the rear-end crashes that Total 218 +35% 294
Fatal 14 +7% 15
resulted in greater severity, there was a 35%
All 70 mph Injury 439 +36% 596
increase in fatal and injury crashes on 70 mph Roads PDO 729 +10% 805
roads (453 to 611). This includes a 33% increase Total 1,182 +20% 1,416
in fatal and injury rear-end crashes on Fatal 87 +10% 96
All Other Injury 41,724 -2%40,859
interstates (372 to 495) and a 43% increase on
Roads PDO 113,564 -1%112,234
freeways (81 to 116). These more severe rear- Total 155,375 -1%153,189
end crashes decreased 2% on all other roads
(41,811 to 40,955) over the same time period. This pattern of change was statistically significantly
different between 70 mph roads and all other roads [χ2(1) = 26.51, p < .001].

Among rear-end crashes, those involving CMVs increased 51% (323 to 489), crashes involving young
drivers increased less than 1% (452 to 454), and those involving older drivers increased 27% (440 to 558)
on 70 mph roads. These increases were each
Table 13. Sideswipe (Same Direction) Crashes by Severity
higher than changes seen on all other roads in
Roadway Severity Before After Diff (%)
the state (see Appendix). Fatal 1 1 0%
Injury 145 196 +35%
Sideswipe (Same Direction) Crashes Interstates
PDO 775 919 +19%
Total 921 1,116 +21%
Researchers also examined sideswipe (same Fatal 1 0 -100%
direction) crashes in greater detail. Considering Injury 38 31 -18%
Freeways
only the more severe (i.e., fatal and injury) PDO 106 169 +59%
sideswipe crashes, these increased 23% on 70 Total 145 200 +38%
Fatal 2 1 -50%
mph roads (185 to 228; see Table 13). In All 70 mph Injury 183 227 +24%
particular, there were 35% more fatal and injury Roads PDO 881 1,088 +23%
sideswipe crashes on interstates (146 to 197) Total 1,066 1,316 +23%
and 21% fewer on freeways (39 to 31) from Fatal 15 22 +47%
All Other Injury 3,969 4,287 +8%
before to after the speed limit increase. Roads PDO 36,119 39,754 +10%
Moreover, fatal and injury sideswipe crashes Total 40,103 44,063 +10%
increased 8% on all other roads (3,984 to 4,309)

33To provide a more reliable comparison of changes, only those specific manners of collision with at least 200 crashes total on
70 mph roadways are presented separately in Table 11.

16
 Speed Limit Analysis – 70 MPH
June 2017

over the same time frame. This pattern of increases was not significantly different across the road types
[χ2(1) = 1.66, p = .20].

As previously mentioned, sideswipe (same direction) crashes increased 23% on all 70 mph roads. Among
these sideswipe crashes, those involving CMVs increased 19% (622 to 742), those involving young
drivers increased 13% (288 to 325), and those involving older drivers increased 30% (420 to 546) on 70
mph roads. These increases mostly outpaced crash increases in similar subsets on all other roads in the
state (see Appendix).

Temporal Factors
In addition to the aforementioned analyses, it is also important to consider aspects related to when
crashes occurred before and after the speed limit increase. This section presents results on time of day,
day of week, season, and environmental conditions.

Time of Day
Table 14. Crashes by Time of Day
Researchers examined the specific time of day Roadway Time Before After Diff (%)
to see if certain times were affected differently Night 752 1,003 +33%
Morning 1,649 2,331 +41%
by the recent speed limit increase. For the Interstates
Afternoon 2,461 2,659 +8%
purposes of this report, crashes were grouped Evening 1,414 1,706 +21%
into four separate times of day when they Night 210 225 +7%
occurred: night (12:00am-5:59am); morning Morning 481 731 +52%
Freeways
Afternoon 557 729 +31%
(6:00am-11:59am); afternoon (12:00pm- Evening 360 428 +19%
5:59pm); and evening (6:00pm-11:59pm). As Night 962 1,228 +28%
shown in Table 14, crashes on 70 mph roads All 70 mph Morning 2,130 3,062 +44%
increased during all four time groups, ranging Roads Afternoon 3,018 3,388 +12%
Evening 1,774 2,134 +20%
from a 12% increase (3,018 to 3,388) during the Night 41,158 39,815 -3%
afternoon to a 44% increase (2,130 to 3,062) All Other Morning 125,460 132,189 +5%
during the morning. Moreover, morning hours Roads Afternoon 229,497 226,075 -1%
showed the largest increases for both Evening 108,065 106,948 -1%

interstates (+41%; 1,649 to 2,331) and freeways (+52%; 481 to 731). On all other roads in Ohio, crashes
during the morning increased 5% (125,460 to 132,189) over the same time comparison. Crashes on all
other roads decreased during night (-3%; 41,158 to 39,815), afternoon (-1%; 229,497 to 226,075), and
evening (-1%; 108,065 to 106,948) hours.

Day of Week

In addition to time of day, researchers also Table 15. Crashes by Day of Week
analyzed whether crashes happened on a Roadway Severity Before After Diff (%)
Weekday 4,690 5,148 +10%
weekday (i.e., Monday-Friday) or a weekend Interstates
Weekend 1,586 2,551 +61%
(i.e., Saturday-Sunday). Weekday crashes on 70 Weekday 1,219 1,562 +28%
Freeways
mph roads increased 14% from before (5,909) Weekend 389 551 +42%
to after (6,710) the speed limit increase (see All 70 mph Weekday 5,909 6,710 +14%
Roads Weekend 1,975 3,102 +57%
Table 15). This includes a 10% increase on All Other Weekday 386,509 386,295 -0.1%
interstates (4,690 to 5,148) and a 28% increase Roads Weekend 117,671 118,732 +1%
on freeways (1,219 to 1,562). Weekday crashes

17
 Speed Limit Analysis – 70 MPH
June 2017

on all other roads decreased less than 1% (386,509 to 386,295) during this same time frame. This
pattern of change was significant [χ2(1) = 50.47, p < .001].

By comparison, crashes that happened on the weekend (i.e., Saturday-Sunday) were impacted to a
greater degree after the speed limit change. Specifically, weekend crashes on 70 mph roads increased
57% (1,975 to 3,102) including a 61% increase on interstates (1,586 to 2,551) and a 42% increase on
freeways (389 to 551). All other roads in Ohio experienced a 1% increase in weekend crashes (117,671
to 118,732) over the same time period. Finally,
Figure 3. Percent Change in Fatal and Injury Crashes
this pattern of change for weekend crashes
Weekday
was significantly different [χ2(1) = 235.13, p < 60% 48%
.001]. Weekend
40%
It is also of interest to examine the more 12%
20%
severe crashes (i.e., fatal and injury) that
happened on weekdays versus weekends. As 0%
-1% -1%
shown in Figure 3, fatal and injury crashes on -20%
70 mph roads increased 12% on weekdays 70 mph Roads All Other Roads
(1,387 to 1,560) and 48% on weekends (528 to
781). Severe crashes on all other roads
decreased 1% on both weekdays (103,448 to Table 16. Crashes by Season
102,633) and weekends (33,828 to 33,609). Roadway Severity Before After Diff (%)
Spring 1,197 1,709 +43%
Season Interstates
Summer 1,426 1,688 +18%
Fall 1,407 1,605 +14%
Because seasonal differences may occur in Winter 2,246 2,697 +20%
traffic patterns, and subsequently traffic Spring 323 463 +43%
Summer 295 440 +49%
crashes, researchers also looked at the change Freeways
Fall 318 470 +48%
in crashes by season: spring (March-May), Winter 672 740 +10%
summer (June-August), fall (September- Spring 1,520 2,172 +43%
November), and winter (December, January- All 70 mph Summer 1,721 2,128 +24%
Roads Fall 1,725 2,075 +20%
February). As shown in Table 16, crashes on 70 Winter 2,918 3,437 +18%
mph roads increased during all four seasons, Spring 119,092 113,087 -5%
ranging from an increase of 18% in winter (2,918 All Other Summer 119,691 118,872 -1%
Roads Fall 127,253 131,034 +3%
to 3,437) to an increase of 43% during spring
Winter 138,144 142,034 +3%
(1,520 to 2,172). On all other roads, crashes
increased 3% during winter (138,144 to
142,034) and decreased 5% during spring Figure 4. Percent Change in Fatal and Injury Crashes
Spring
(119,092 to 113,087). Summer
60% 51%
Fall
Researchers also examined the more severe 40% Winter
crashes on these roads (i.e., fatal and injury). 26%
20% 14%
During the spring months, fatal and injury 9%
4% 0.1%
crashes increased 51% on 70 mph roads (350 0%
to 530), while all other roads experienced a -1%
-20% -6%
6% decrease in fatal and injury crashes
(33,157 to 31,184; see Figure 4). Additionally, 70 mph Roads All Other Roads
severe crashes on 70 mph roads increased

18
 Speed Limit Analysis – 70 MPH
June 2017

26% during fall months (417 to 525) while all other roads showed a 4% increase during the same season
(34,817 to 36,224). Finally, fatal and injury crashes increased 14% during winter (670 to 764) and 9%
during summer (478 to 522) on 70 mph roads. Severe crashes on all other roads remained relatively
stable during those seasons [i.e., less than 1% increase during winter (33,936 to 33,984); 1% decrease
during summer (35,366 to 34,850)].

Best Environmental Conditions

In an effort to partially control for non-ideal driving conditions, researchers examined the subset of
crashes that occurred during the best environmental conditions: on dry roads, in clear weather, and
during daylight (no glare) lighting conditions. Crashes in these best conditions increased 15% on 70 mph
roads from before (2,101) to after (2,422) the speed limit increase (see Table 17). This includes an 8%
increase on interstates (1,734 to 1,877) and a 49% increase on freeways (367 to 545). Crashes in best
environmental conditions decreased 3% on all
Table 17. Best Environmental Condition Crashes by Severity
other roads (186,708 to 180,861) during the
Roadway Severity Before After Diff (%)
same time. Fatal 13 11 -15%
Injury 377 421 +12%
Researchers further analyzed the more severe Interstates
PDO 1,344 1,445 +8%
crashes (i.e., fatal and injury) that happened in Total 1,734 1,877 +8%
the best environmental conditions. On all 70 Fatal 1 8 +700%
Injury 102 117 +15%
mph roads, fatal and injury crashes increased Freeways
PDO 264 420 +59%
13% (493 to 557), including an 11% increase on Total 367 545 +49%
interstates (390 to 432) and a 21% increase on Fatal 14 19 +36%
freeways (103 to 125). On all other roads, fatal All 70 mph Injury 479 538 +12%
Roads PDO 1,608 1,865 +16%
and injury crashes in best environmental
Total 2,101 2,422 +15%
conditions decreased 4% (52,166 to 50,089) Fatal 578 543 -6%
during the same time comparison. This pattern All Other Injury 51,588 49,546 -4%
of change was significantly different for 70 mph Roads PDO 134,542 130,772 -3%
Total 186,708 180,861 -3%
roads versus all other roads [χ2(1) = 6.87, p <
.01].

Location
An additional way that researchers analyzed crashes was by crash location. GIS Specialists separated
each 70 mph roadway into five mile segments which resulted in 198 road segments. As shown in Map 1,
road segments that experienced an increase in crashes after the speed limit change are denoted in red,
those that decreased are shown in green, and those segments that experienced no change are shown in
gray. Of the 198 segments, 78% (154) experienced an increase in the number of crashes from before to
after the speed limit change. Conversely, 17% (34) showed a decrease in the number of crashes on that
segment while 5% (10) did not experience any change. Overall, segments that experienced more (or
less) crashes are located all over the state rather than on one particular roadway or area.34

34The majority of Interstate 75 in Wood County shows a decrease in crashes, but this is due to construction projects on that
roadway during the ‘after’ comparison period. Because the current dataset removed all crashes in construction zones, the
‘before’ and ‘after’ segments of this roadway are not comparable.

19
 Speed Limit Analysis – 70 MPH
June 2017

Map 1. Crash Change by Five Mile Segments

Largest Change in Fatal and Injury Crashes

In order to determine which roads may have been most affected by the speed limit increase,
researchers looked specifically at fatal and injury (i.e., severe) crashes per five mile segments of each 70
mph roadway. To identify those roads with the greatest change, researchers first created a trimmed
average and standard deviation of the change in severe crashes on segments with at least 20 severe
crashes total. This resulted in an average change of +35% (SD = 58%) across 100 segments (see Map 2).
To identify those segments that experienced the greatest change, researchers used two standard
deviations (SD) from the average as outlier thresholds.35 This resulted in five segments above two SD
and no segments less than two SD from the average. As shown in Map 2, the largest of these increases
occurred on State Route 2, Erie County (mile posts 5-9) which experienced a 900% increase in fatal and
injury crashes (2 to 20). Interstate 71, Ashland County (mile posts 180-184) experienced the next highest
change. Fatal and injury crashes on that segment increased 271% (7 to 26). Interstate 90, Lake County
(mile posts 205-209) experienced a 175% increase in fatal and injury crashes (8 to 22), and Interstate 70,

35 In a normal distribution, this corresponds to approximately the 2nd and 98th percentiles.

20
 Speed Limit Analysis – 70 MPH
June 2017

Map 2. Fatal and Injury Crash Change by Five Mile Segments

Licking County (mile posts 120-124) had a 167% increase in severe crashes (12 to 32). Finally, US Route
33, Union County (mile posts 20-24) experienced a 157% increase in fatal and injury crashes (7 to 18).
Overall, fatal and injury crashes on these top five segments increased 228% (36 to 118) after the speed
limit change, corresponding to an additional 82 severe crashes on these road segments.

Regression Analysis
This section provides the results of a modeling analysis in which linear regression models were fit to the
monthly frequency of severe (i.e., fatal and injury) crashes using the same data set described in the
methodology section. Although a full model similar to previous studies was not possible (e.g., data is
unavailable for traffic volume, miles traveled, and vehicle speeds), more simplified models were
estimated. These regression models explored the effects of the increased speed limit on crashes while
statistically controlling for relevant control variables, and separate models were estimated for two main
roadways: all 70 mph roads and all other roads.

To identify the relevant control variables (i.e., covariates) for inclusion in the final models, researchers
tested covariates already identified in the literature on speed limit increases, including: a linear time
trend (i.e., continuous variable to account for natural trends over time); separate month variables (to
account for seasonality effects or exposure during high travel months); and the number of weekend

21
 Speed Limit Analysis – 70 MPH
June 2017

days in a given month.36 The primary predictor variable of interest was a dichotomous variable
corresponding to when the speed limit increase occurred (0 for data prior to the increase to 70 mph; 1
for data after the 70 mph speed limit was in effect). The dependent variable (DV) was the monthly
number of fatal and injury crashes. Using SAS 9.3 software, researchers created trimmed models (in
which non-significant covariates were removed from the model until only significant covariates remain)
as they have been shown to yield more stable parameter estimates.37 The resulting trimmed models are
discussed here.

When predicting the number of severe Table 18. Linear regression of monthly fatal and injury crashes on 70
crashes on 70 mph roads, the overall mph roads
trimmed model fit the data well (F = Parameter Estimate
Standard
t value p value
12.80, p < .0001) with an adjusted R2 = .60 Error
Intercept -7.60 43.79 -0.17 0.863
(i.e., this model accounts for 60% of the 70 mph limit variable 18.27 5.86 3.12 0.003
variance in the DV, adjusting for the # Fri/Sat/Sun 6.24 3.31 1.88 0.067
number of predictors in the model). As January 59.43 10.83 5.49 <.001
February 52.55 11.34 4.63 <.001
shown in Table 18, the speed limit change
April -25.14 10.81 -2.33 0.025
variable was positive and significant (b = May -18.32 10.83 -1.69 0.098
18.27, p < .01) suggesting severe crashes Note. Adjusted R2 = .60.
Estimates are unstandardized regression coefficients (b) from trimmed
on 70 mph roads increased significantly models in which non-significant (i.e., p > .10) covariates were dropped from
after the speed limit change. More the model. Linear regressions set up as in Garber & Graham (1990), including
dichotomous variables for months.
specifically, after the speed limit increase,
the predicted value of monthly severe
crashes on these roads increased by 18.27
crashes (on average, holding all other Table 19. Linear regression of monthly fatal and injury crashes on all
predictors in the model constant). other roads
Standard
Parameter Estimate t value p value
When predicting the number of fatal and Error
injury crashes on all other roads, the Intercept 5896.08 77.11 76.46 <.001
70 mph limit variable -43.08 93.61 -0.46 0.648
overall trimmed model fit the data well (F February -553.29 173.33 -3.19 0.003
= 10.17, p < .0001) with an adjusted R2 = March -846.04 173.33 -4.88 <.001
.54 (i.e., this model accounts for 54% of April -813.04 173.33 -4.69 <.001
October 425.21 173.33 2.45 0.019
the variance in the DV, adjusting for the
November -327.79 173.33 -1.89 0.066
number of predictors in the model). As Note. Adjusted R2 = .54.
shown in Table 19, the speed limit change Estimates are unstandardized regression coefficients (b) from trimmed
models in which non-significant (i.e., p > .10) covariates were dropped from
variable was not significant (p = .65) the model. Linear regressions set up as in Garber & Graham (1990), including
suggesting the speed limit increase did not dichotomous variables for months.

significantly affect the number of fatal and

injury crashes on all other roads in Ohio.

36Garber, S., & Graham, J. (1990).

37Bryk, A. S., & Raudenbush, S. W. (1992). Hierarchical linear models: Applications and data analysis methods. Newbury Park,
CA: Sage.

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 Speed Limit Analysis – 70 MPH
June 2017

Summary
During 2013, the speed limit increased to 70 mph on rural interstates and freeways in Ohio. To better
understand the traffic safety impacts, researchers analyzed crash data from two years before (i.e., 2011-
2012) and two years after (i.e., 2014-2015) the speed limit change. Crashes on 70 mph roads increased
24% from before (7,884) to after (9,812) the speed limit increase, including a 22% increase in fatal and
injury crashes (1,915 to 2,341). The increase in crashes on 70 mph roads was pervasive across a variety
of subsets, including: CMV-related crashes (+27%); crashes involving young (+22%) and older (+27%)
drivers; speed-related (+16%) and lane change-related (+66%) crashes; rear-end (+20%) and sideswipe
(same direction; +23%) crashes; and weekend crashes (+57%). Moreover, crash increases often occurred
on both interstates and freeways that raised their speed limits. Finally, for the more severe (i.e., fatal
and injury) crashes, the speed limit significantly increased these crashes on 70 mph roads (p < .01) but
did not significantly affect severe crashes on all other roads. The results in this report are offered to
better understand the impact of Ohio’s recent speed limit increase.

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 Speed Limit Analysis – 70 MPH
June 2017

APPENDIX: CRASH SUMMARY TABLES BY SUBSETS

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 Speed Limit Analysis – 70 MPH
June 2017

Table A1. Speed-Related Crashes by Subsets Table A2. Lane Change-Related Crashes by Subsets
Roadway Severity Before After Diff (%) Roadway Severity Before After Diff (%)
All Speed 3,607 4,085 +13% All Lane Change 1,110 1,896 +71%
CMV 812 996 +23% CMV 491 731 +49%
Interstates Interstates
Young 1,187 1,325 +12% Young 314 494 +57%
Older 861 1,020 +18% Older 384 592 +54%
All Speed 918 1,169 +27% All Lane Change 281 411 +46%
CMV 116 167 +44% CMV 60 88 +47%
Freeways Freeways
Young 314 398 +27% Young 89 136 +53%
Older 195 255 +31% Older 71 118 +66%
All Speed 4,525 5,254 +16% All Lane Change 1,391 2,307 +66%
All 70 mph CMV 928 1,163 +25% All 70 mph CMV 551 819 +49%
Roads Young 1,501 1,723 +15% Roads Young 403 630 +56%
Older 1,056 1,275 +21% Older 455 710 +56%
All Speed 248,193 260,357 +5% All Lane Change 45,485 55,220 +21%
All Other CMV 12,845 15,045 +17% All Other CMV 6,109 7,774 +27%
Roads Young 103,129 102,246 -1% Roads Young 15,892 18,421 +16%
Older 70,349 77,044 +10% Older 15,160 18,440 +22%

Table A3. Rear-End Crashes by Subsets Table A4. Sideswipe (Same Direction) Crashes by Subsets
Roadway Severity Before After Diff (%) Roadway Severity Before After Diff (%)
All Rear-End 964 1,122 +16% All Sideswipe 921 1,116 +21%
CMV 291 422 +45% CMV 564 671 +19%
Interstates Interstates
Young 371 363 -2% Young 239 255 +7%
Older 353 448 +27% Older 358 463 +29%
All Rear-End 218 294 +35% All Sideswipe 145 200 +38%
CMV 32 67 +109% CMV 58 71 +22%
Freeways Freeways
Young 81 91 +12% Young 49 70 +43%
Older 87 110 +26% Older 62 83 +34%
All Rear-End 1,182 1,416 +20% All Sideswipe 1,066 1,316 +23%
All 70 mph CMV 323 489 +51% All 70 mph CMV 622 742 +19%
Roads Young 452 454 +0.4% Roads Young 288 325 +13%
Older 440 558 +27% Older 420 546 +30%
All Rear-End 155,375 153,189 -1% All Sideswipe 40,103 44,063 +10%
All Other CMV 7,189 8,064 +12% All Other CMV 7,080 8,445 +19%
Roads Young 67,539 64,282 -5% Roads Young 11,928 12,420 +4%
Older 56,702 58,820 +4% Older 14,088 16,176 +15%

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