Simulated Cost Benefit of

Benefits Estimates
Mode
Category Minimum Most Likely Maximum

Flood
control 1695200 2347800 3570600

Hydro
electric
Power 8068250 11845000 14845000

Navigation 50400 64000 109500

Recreation 6404000 9774000 14566000

Area
Redevelop
ment 0 1630000 2385000

R for Annualized R for Operations&Ma

Year ACC Capital cost Ope.&Main. intenance Cost Total Cost R for FCB
1 0.664385 15877982 0.34656628 4857108 20735090 0.00715
2 0.244245 14277498 0.87991768 6281790 20559288 0.305968
3 0.526391 15277177 0.1754409 4549543 19826720 0.465621
4 0.109965 13868713 0.58813719 5371013 19239726 0.072623
5 0.066343 13742654 0.02284814 4301339 18043993 0.885075
6 0.633923 15736044 0.16973262 4539863 20275907 0.107314
7 0.831132 16807237 0.28090519 4734815 21542052 0.85176
8 0.327734 14550245 0.78717705 5927648 20477893 0.991644
9 0.53093 15295422 0.06519219 4368143 19663565 0.863371
10 0.059313 13722616 0.77532881 5888570 19611186 0.920843
11 0.989154 18500267 0.85334529 6169419 24669686 0.522911
12 0.083182 13790961 0.02076133 4298084 18089045 0.81767
13 0.584145 15516264 0.18665113 4568650 20084914 0.904652
14 0.297429 14449382 0.2785917 4730611 19179993 0.280533
15 0.50736 15201627 0.28879678 4749209 19950836 0.03867
16 0.325042 14541193 0.2823654 4737473 19278666 0.276912
17 0.198661 14134935 0.91586886 6456011 20590946 0.895031

18 0.847888 16922681 0.2613413 4699469 21622150 0.808395

19 0.636215 15746510 0.98046427 6919622 22666132 0.826665
20 0.467247 15047017 0.15186877 4509784 19556801 0.655867
21 0.052827 13704197 0.21387372 4615605 18319802 0.787374
22 0.793209 16565479 0.63575764 5488982 22054461 0.829193
23 0.098225 13834487 0.70582915 5677623 19512110 0.35936
24 0.901479 17342839 0.49640274 5161608 22504447 0.47913
25 0.524019 15267680 0.54478127 5269416 20537096 0.873659
26 0.506716 15199096 0.04240747 4332013 19531109 0.73941
27 0.192875 14117131 0.82711627 6068118 20185249 0.719783
28 0.474042 15072786 0.43333935 5028579 20101365 0.047722
29 0.588917 15536745 0.927494 6520129 22056874 0.736101
30 0.794098 16570882 0.64840068 5521579 22092461 0.626812
31 0.945718 17789266 0.71321536 5698762 23488028 0.885748
32 0.621713 15680816 0.02724248 4308203 19989019 0.530469
33 0.335102 14575109 0.21673481 4620587 19195696 0.420186
34 0.862938 17031932 0.1622728 4527264 21559196 0.818846
35 0.750042 16315960 0.57188787 5332337 21648297 0.773423
36 0.146717 13977335 0.09034461 4408543 18385878 0.128634
37 0.927948 17593689 0.30160943 4772750 22366439 0.243059
38 0.638176 15755496 0.43735838 5036828 20792324 0.284361
39 0.00717 13576275 0.40419595 4969611 18545886 0.599818
40 0.761038 16377327 0.57366164 5336523 21713850 0.867657
41 0.423896 14886340 0.31102774 4790193 19676533 0.131938
42 0.467462 15047832 0.70709246 5681220 20729052 0.723231
43 0.96112 17986847 0.80251605 5979893 23966740 0.863743
44 0.227253 14223865 0.96557915 6778462 21002327 0.265283
45 0.982652 18348134 0.95983625 6732557 25080691 0.363573
46 0.486817 15121690 0.51062727 5192748 20314438 0.576667
47 0.240313 14265035 0.86099377 6200637 20465672 0.285231
48 0.017922 13606131 0.44252172 5047471 18653602 0.939415
49 0.527232 15280554 0.79400905 5950677 21231231 0.428708
50 0.477358 15085422 0.91238414 6437668 21523090 0.113398
51 0.434398 14924694 0.40667328 4974567 19899261 0.867064
52 0.913572 17452621 0.68621652 5622747 23075368 0.31824
53 0.072815 13761169 0.32816032 4822230 18583399 0.544791
54 0.706608 16085840 0.18345929 4563196 20649036 0.100029
55 0.825887 16772286 0.0540408 4350406 21122692 0.412746
56 0.965413 18048691 0.28766626 4747143 22795834 0.520528
57 0.128937 13924499 0.88536407 6306314 20230813 0.037541
58 0.572686 15467569 0.52864208 5232841 20700410 0.272117
59 0.979322 18281441 0.34330258 4850888 23132329 0.62322
60 0.174112 14059834 0.46743967 5099536 19159370 0.663157
61 0.153341 13997161 0.33267442 4830739 18827900 0.488015
62 0.32567 14543305 0.29424762 4759198 19302503 0.225294
63 0.95604 17917945 0.72799296 5741888 23659833 0.935926
 64 0.262598 14336109 0.79184731 5943350 20279459 0.29494
65 0.781064 16492838 0.30287448 4775086 21267924 0.728972
66 0.712281 16114881 0.25872045 4694769 20809650 0.412208
67 0.89273 17267559 0.83983853 6116215 23383774 0.922337
68 0.369571 14693300 0.19750081 4587269 19280569 0.684517
69 0.642542 15775582 0.25004145 4679266 20454848 0.861261
70 0.726914 16191138 0.34913307 4862010 21053148 0.553907
71 0.106873 13859677 0.66123007 5555262 19414939 0.99648
72 0.380835 14732621 0.58247949 5357462 20090083 0.590293
73 0.324186 14538321 0.84591992 6139880 20678201 0.048912
74 0.494255 15150446 0.99888358 7247724 22398170 0.027312
75 0.102971 13848298 0.09010525 4408156 18256454 0.060563
76 0.116606 13888172 0.30186074 4773214 18661386 0.064618
77 0.759007 16365889 0.30213554 4773722 21139611 0.106997
78 0.711889 16112868 0.55202452 5286042 21398910 0.451383
79 0.468509 15051791 0.89171961 6335681 21387472 0.797166
80 0.901298 17341248 0.3749303 4911831 22253079 0.225332
81 0.72565 16184474 0.74082921 5780310 21964784 0.806399
82 0.685366 15979524 0.36283966 4888355 20867879 0.344294
83 0.947008 17804630 0.34339923 4851072 22655702 0.851559
84 0.193286 14118395 0.23324712 4649519 18767914 0.742221
85 0.810241 16671046 0.4846948 5136307 21807353 0.568243
86 0.132717 13935686 0.73686587 5768347 19704033 0.083758
87 0.65438 15830677 0.81331293 6017895 21848572 0.9229
88 0.66842 15897258 0.18180041 4560366 20457624 0.339747
89 0.595276 15564215 0.77968697 5902821 21467036 0.871024
90 0.819489 16730362 0.10553763 4433218 21163580 0.993824
91 0.808074 16657362 0.56480745 5315714 21973076 0.773657
92 0.822836 16752197 0.20624738 4602370 21354567 0.475229
93 0.438008 14937959 0.60174485 5403993 20341952 0.869585
94 0.801779 16618035 0.93570495 6568577 23186612 0.854063
95 0.080394 13782932 0.11477595 4448324 18231256 0.410048
96 0.258912 14324278 0.94001615 6595257 20919535 0.113043
97 0.736258 16240907 0.03767431 4324562 20565469 0.621904
98 0.122282 13904864 0.50163747 5173016 19077880 0.695126
99 0.695987 16032221 0.71685502 5709279 21741500 0.927027
100 0.11518 13883989 0.97282671 6842274 20726263 0.654527
 Simulated Cost Benefit of a DAM

Cost Estimates

Category Minimum Most Likely Maximum

Annualized Capital Cost 12890750 14150500 19075000

Operation & Maintenance 3483500 4890000 7350800

Hydro
Electric R for
R for Power R for Navigation Recreatio Recreatio R for Area
Flood Control Ben. HEPB Benefit Navigation Benefits n n Benefits Re.B
2061679 0.231591 10892540 0.49267041 72564 0.692532 11098180 0.955603
2309021 0.432766 11449120 0.41967226 69996 0.501587 10150789 0.452514
2463596 0.694392 12352392 0.39766165 69254 0.438182 9878359 0.505205
2112280 0.186865 10779138 0.567471 75396 0.696242 11119165 0.612859
3057228 0.746487 12574763 0.22704276 63909 0.429773 9843406 0.543883
2139816 0.82083 12936448 0.6040692 76871 0.68048 11030865 0.793706
2987548 0.185899 10776724 0.38843195 68947 0.085337 8584813 0.909526
3432171 0.662079 12223926 0.45685229 71283 0.812027 11854529 0.234546
3010847 0.848664 13090947 0.24647289 64486 0.694142 11107271 0.308567
3144540 0.377158 11286556 0.60029167 76715 0.540058 10324609 0.870583
2524618 0.172185 10742599 0.50156178 72890 0.137802 8758888 0.268418
2923973 0.457689 11524559 0.36566252 68199 0.67507 11001064 0.202441
3102993 0.037953 10422482 0.32322321 66840 0.744817 11406763 0.633605
2286112 0.863795 13180941 0.74121465 83120 0.974953 13576229 0.615787
2085824 0.54523 11804344 0.98215939 102574 0.620466 10713150 0.726504
2282883 0.669298 12252074 0.18315695 62633 0.758953 11495513 0.972143
3079969 0.537164 11777496 0.67415368 79899 0.513054 10201878 0.736615

2907731 0.324765 11139908 0.06508709 59360 0.359521 9560942 0.858978

2940125 0.546966 11810153 0.22377147 63813 0.794631 11731838 0.728605
2682242 0.879093 13277177 0.04120951 58724 0.065773 8521186 0.200019
2872315 0.614619 12045913 0.48288361 72210 0.929758 12908491 0.958972
2944740 0.706652 12402905 0.61446484 77302 0.578198 10504269 0.344116
2358518 0.97396 14117398 0.80603087 86662 0.549704 10369319 0.53064
2477677 0.125896 10629462 0.27647434 65391 0.000787 8314477 0.0653
3032335 0.171458 10740800 0.33311304 67153 0.803741 11795413 0.98292
2797558 0.980668 14218079 0.35349303 67805 0.919337 12789796 0.137928
2768974 0.191181 10789943 0.75659903 83916 0.999056 14373897 0.840195
2092831 0.565564 11873100 0.85564475 89798 0.96593 13411641 0.344111
2792664 0.490316 11625995 0.40360691 69453 0.827942 11971854 0.259394
2645500 0.258805 10963159 0.56680338 75370 0.998538 14326884 0.687923
3058733 0.784474 12751751 0.60664688 76977 0.110335 8667116 0.755304
2532936 0.890289 13351528 0.3497884 67686 0.591378 10568230 0.468733
2417494 0.653684 12191568 0.71901612 82012 0.391886 9689039 0.045444
2926062 0.757022 12622435 0.60768171 77020 0.056335 8490730 0.851303
2849771 0.69463 12353366 0.73265296 82688 0.102009 8639577 0.297584
2157005 0.186515 10778263 0.59802181 76622 0.086087 8587269 0.056597
2253084 0.362706 11245507 0.9288677 95670 0.990924 13970206 0.188126
2289533 0.809201 12875482 0.19770816 63052 0.165797 8853944 0.062269
2612627 0.883763 13307751 0.93697659 96482 0.058091 8496385 0.575058
3019697 0.139908 10663386 0.19133569 62868 0.401474 9727641 0.663041
2159688 0.411418 11385806 0.01240659 57967 0.277232 9249130 0.665123
2773921 0.035585 10417043 0.75625928 83899 0.693424 11103215 0.523325
3011610 0.558124 11847761 0.90834527 93801 0.769117 11560941 0.012421
2272570 0.419577 11409866 0.72383199 82249 0.176884 8892028 0.403715
2362511 0.926179 13619927 0.42264159 70098 0.965521 13404722 0.952192
2585306 0.205969 10827185 0.80449574 86571 0.857646 12206384 0.401096
2290313 0.75513 12613798 0.84952674 89385 0.941905 13058605 0.185189
3197857 0.277428 11012238 0.69401818 80816 0.574001 10484112 0.348104
2426000 0.997126 14603295 0.02801093 58375 0.252132 9157595 0.431302
2144700 0.961879 13964650 0.74099882 83109 0.967651 13441165 0.776023
3018464 0.701165 12380168 0.28540788 65664 0.129373 8730571 0.819515
2320224 0.405031 11367089 0.88796656 92143 0.301541 9339306 0.683181
2548885 0.999522 14746421 0.97535299 101359 0.517479 10221752 0.672026
2133990 0.993333 14476845 0.92702158 95491 0.584013 10532364 0.996946
2410120 0.279992 11019045 0.02796756 58374 0.615027 10685644 0.920879
2522008 0.630685 12104877 0.40746509 69583 0.585601 10540073 0.236565
2084953 0.786215 12760220 0.107002 60497 0.65373 10885863 0.282248
2278621 0.979301 14196294 0.28698778 65713 0.399412 9719313 0.387733
2641058 0.687996 12326447 0.87734491 91339 0.938575 13016003 0.56106
2691702 0.30825 11094873 0.38522483 68841 0.923326 12834269 0.383103
2487039 0.716259 12443225 0.76647661 84441 0.681265 11035211 0.829985
2237713 0.390011 11323461 0.2114575 63452 0.670856 10978024 0.140701
3187277 0.871366 13227853 0.7900221 85738 0.231393 9083119 0.105657
2299037 0.038886 10424629 0.23151057 64041 0.008836 8339707 0.433732
2782227 0.019294 10379802 0.47557282 71947 0.031424 8411064 0.204658
2409589 0.156818 10704697 0.44939184 71021 0.483282 10070442 0.483116
3148582 0.9424 13762861 0.88765871 92119 0.595811 10589975 0.827876
2720025 0.755537 12615650 0.17144032 62298 0.810652 11844636 0.578287
3006542 0.022485 10387072 0.73960214 83038 0.561788 10426017 0.680003
2559167 0.526371 11741936 0.23163096 64045 0.615465 10687851 0.208887
3480761 0.069997 10496759 0.80368491 86524 0.928691 12895952 0.424941
2601293 0.573946 11901910 0.79311243 85913 0.444054 9902920 0.9657
2093755 0.741328 12551780 0.58431341 76066 0.112876 8675545 0.162247
2077079 0.03048 10405339 0.62936613 77930 0.718884 11250114 0.494961
2102828 0.941148 13751167 0.16985789 62253 0.511351 10194250 0.307946
2106000 0.720231 12460096 0.85196299 89548 0.115245 8683414 0.083967
2139562 0.325382 11141602 0.48264179 72201 0.461443 9976424 0.357254
2448945 0.8469 13080756 0.04874593 58924 0.487836 10090296 0.389983
2888584 0.454661 11515303 0.17385787 62367 0.814347 11871315 0.507706
2237746 0.336869 11173269 0.88130886 91635 0.802499 11786662 0.324069
2904286 0.535241 11771131 0.16320587 62064 0.99968 14454170 0.543422
2344350 0.012886 10365238 0.03199911 58480 0.563124 10432330 0.384605
2987152 0.097896 10562479 0.78727445 85583 0.811616 11851573 0.699048
2801738 0.651545 12183390 0.19174929 62880 0.939013 13021540 0.194407
2575551 0.494573 11639464 0.49786185 72754 0.098713 8628710 0.593293
2121061 0.552806 11829779 0.47798073 72034 0.739553 11374343 0.738027
3150113 0.833155 13003264 0.41748142 69922 0.553996 10389369 0.220748
2340105 0.741137 12550932 0.35980995 68009 0.23451 9094246 0.614317
3026749 0.485212 11609915 0.39405254 69134 0.026914 8396752 0.330347
3451587 0.91592 13537574 0.00395713 57747 0.788816 11691996 0.18875
2850143 0.060159 10473821 0.18172598 62592 0.989027 13910886 0.430455
2473593 0.791842 12787842 0.96657026 100019 0.519767 10232064 0.214769
3023724 0.558939 11850526 0.15098919 61719 0.43488 9864601 0.821232
2992095 0.185375 10775414 0.38638547 68879 0.684822 11054969 0.596795
2407457 0.849057 13093226 0.1017226 60352 0.279783 9258520 0.370033
2144414 0.503443 11667717 0.83272056 88291 0.352478 9533500 0.91875
2639437 0.835168 13014408 0.29764403 66041 0.560768 10421199 0.395317
2734449 0.262442 10972695 0.6309353 77997 0.540941 10328683 0.985864
3161524 0.116533 10606946 0.05254181 59025 0.342452 9494687 0.636886
2680515 0.863494 13179107 0.34154804 67421 0.397455 9711421 0.68398
Area
Redevelop Mean
ment Total Benefit/Cos Data Benefit/Cost
Benefits Benefits t Table Ratio
2102255 26227218 1.265 1 1.30
1392103 25371029 1.234 2 1.30
1441091 26204692 1.322 3 1.30
1550066 25636045 1.332 4 1.30
1478734 27018040 1.497 5 1.30
1775517 27959517 1.379 6 1.30
1981373 24399405 1.133 7 1.30
1210975 28792884 1.406 8 1.30
1269184 28542735 1.452 9 1.30
1902260 26734680 1.363 10 1.30
1237245 23336240 0.946 11 1.30
1186607 26704402 1.476 12 1.30
1572745 26571823 1.323 13 1.30
1553229 30679631 1.600 14 1.30
1683233 26389125 1.323 15 1.30
2161031 28254134 1.466 16 1.30
1696326 26835568 1.303 17 1.30

1881081 25549022 1.182 18 1.30

1685934 28231863 1.246 19 1.30
1184789 25724118 1.315 20 1.30
2113195 30012124 1.638 21 1.30
1298246 27227462 1.235 22 1.30
1465672 28397569 1.455 23 1.30
1087660 22574667 1.003 24 1.30
2209626 27845327 1.356 25 1.30
1139082 31012320 1.588 26 1.30
1848571 29865301 1.480 27 1.30
1298242 28765612 1.431 28 1.30
1230188 27690154 1.255 29 1.30
1635367 29646280 1.342 30 1.30
1721209 26275786 1.119
1406921 27927301 1.397
1073953 25454066 1.326
1867549 25983796 1.205
1260357 25185759 1.163
1081634 22680793 1.234
1175901 28740368 1.285
1085558 25167569 1.210
1510252 26023497 1.403
1606056 25079648 1.155
1608466 24461057 1.243
1458535 25836613 1.246
1051467 27565580 1.150
1348798 24005511 1.143
2091593 31548851 1.258
1346524 27051970 1.332
1173715 29225816 1.428
1301555 26076578 1.398
1373052 27618317 1.301
1749933 31383557 1.458
1814917 26009784 1.307
1629693 24748455 1.073
1616512 29234929 1.573
2310843 29549533 1.431
2007547 26180730 1.239
1212524 26449065 1.160
1248146 27039679 1.337
1335003 27594944 1.333
1495962 29570809 1.278
1331040 28020725 1.463
1831700 27881616 1.481
1141088 25743738 1.334
1115976 26699963 1.128
1375216 22502630 1.110
1188274 22833314 1.074
1420251 24676000 1.186
1828279 29421816 1.258
1513582 28756191 1.491
1625915 25528584 1.248
1191460 26244459 1.247
1367408 28327404 1.459
2136478 26628514 1.325
1156781 24553927 1.187
1431370 25241832 1.127
1268683 27379181 1.500
1100680 24439738 1.310
1309186 24638975 1.166
1336934 27015855 1.262
1443479 27781048 1.299
1281763 26571075 1.194
1478276 30669927 1.396
1332324 24532722 1.176
1648850 27135637 1.198
1180586 29250134 1.559
1529228 24445707 1.121
1698175 27095392 1.375
1200441 27813109 1.273
1551639 25604931 1.252
1286898 24389448 1.136
1176365 29915269 1.414
1372298 28669740 1.305
1195906 26789424 1.255
1817635 26618205 1.309
1532920 26424277 1.140
1319934 26139489 1.434
2002503 25436425 1.216
1341527 27482612 1.336
2225454 26339278 1.381
1576390 24898572 1.145
1630647 27269111 1.316

Mean
Benefit 1.301
Cost
Ratio
 Benefit/Cost

Mean 1.288186
Standard Error 0.012701
Median 1.279291
Mode #N/A
Standard Deviation 0.12701
Sample Variance 0.016132
Kurtosis -0.29869
Skewness 0.164603
Range 0.605039
Minimum 1.007799
Maximum 1.612837
Sum 128.8186
Count 100

PROBABILTY OF HAVING
BENEFIT COST RATIO AT OR
BELOW 1 IS 0.011634
PROBABILTY OF HAVING
BENEFIT COST RATIO
ABOVE 1 IS 0.988366