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2018 Houston Economic Outlook PDF
2018 Houston Economic Outlook PDF
Economic
Outlook
2018
HOUSTON ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2018
Houston’s Economy
Back On Track EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
HOUSTON MSA EM P LOY M E NT
Houston ranked among the top-performing U.S. metros last year and has J OBS G AI NED
historically been a top 10 metro leading the nation in population and job growth. 2018 estimated 45,500
In March, The Brookings Institution ranked Houston 5th best performing
2017 estimated 29,700
metropolitan area by change in growth, 2010-2015, in it’s 2017 Metro Monitor.
2016 18,700
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Texas suburbs, including Houston’s,
made up half of the country’s 10 fastest growing cities between 2015 and 2016. 2015 200
The Texas Demographic Center’s Fast Growth Scenario projects the HOUSTON U NEMPLOY M E NT
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSApopulation to growth 2.3% in 2018.
PERCENT (%)
Since the dramatic fall of oil prices that occurred in late 2014, Houston’s economy
slowed significantly and grew at a lesser pace in 2015, 2016 and 2017 than 11/2017 4.3
its’ average annual rate. Even though Houston’s economy saw accelerated growth 11/2016 5.2
in 2017, it was well below Houston’s potential. Future growth forecasts are 11/2015 4.8
promising as local economists forecast about 45,000 jobs or slightly more in 2018
and expect that number to increase annually through 2021. HOUSTON MSA POP UL AT I ON
IN MILLIONS G ROW TH (%)
Houston’s economy was jolted in August 2017 when Hurricane Harvey slammed
2017 6.93 2.3
the Texas Gulf Coast and dumped over 50 inches of rain over a three-day
2016 6.77 2.3
period. The event caused widespread flooding, destroying homes, businesses and
infrastructure. Further, the historical rainfall totals caused supply chain 2015 6.62 2.5
interruptions, halted distribution logistics and shut down the Port of Houston,
ENERGY: OIL & NAT URAL G AS
manufacturing plants and retail stores for at least a week. Houston area retail
W TI CRUD E O I L: PER BAR REL
spending rose the week leading up to the event and then plummeted 58.7%
the week after. The good news is that Houston’s resiliency lead to an uptick in 08/2017 $56.54
consumer spending within weeks after the event, mostly caused by area residents 08/2016 $51.97
purchasing replacement items damaged by the storm. 08/2015 $37.19
08/2014 $59.29
HOUSTON, TEXAS N ATU RAL G AS: PER M M Btu
METRO AREA DETAIL SAN
JACINTO 12/2017 $2.82
12/2016 $3.59
MONTGOMERY
LIBERTY 12/2015 $1.93
WAL
CHAMBERS
Population Growth
H O U S T O N P O P U L AT I O N
A S O F J U LY 1
2016 2,303,482
2015 2,284,816
2014 2,243,999
2013 2,204,406
2017 population releases May 2018
Houston ranks among the leading metropolitan areas in the U.S. and is the fourth largest city and the fifth largest Metropolitan
Statistical Area (MSA) in the nation. Metro Houston area, which consists of ten counties, grew by more than 125,000 people between
July 2015 and July 2016, making it the second fastest growing metropolitan region in the country. Despite the fall in oil prices,
Metro Houston’s population gain remains solid. Forecasts show Houston’s population growth to be between 1.5% and 2.3% in 2018.
On a more long-term basis, demographers project strong population growth for the area over the next thirty years as domestic and
international migration trends favor Houston’s geographical, cultural and economic strengths. According to the U.S. Census
Bureau, Houston had a net gain of 18,666 new residents in 2016, which is low compared to the 40,817 resident net gain in 2015.
The median household income for the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land metro area was $61,708 in 2016, down 0.4% from
2015. Houston’s 2016 median household income is more than 9.0% higher than both the median Texas and U.S. household incomes.
Houston’s strong economic base continues to be a key factor, driving both domestic and international migration trends, although
Houston’s Fortune 500 rankings prove to be less impressive than last year, with three Houston companies falling off the 2016
list. Houston still ranks third among U.S. cities with the most Fortune 500 headquarters with twenty (20) companies on the 2017 list,
following New York with a total of sixty-eight (68) and Chicago with thirty-four (34). Phillips 66 ranked highest on the list again
list again for Houston-based headquarters on the Fortune 500 list, however fell from its No. 30 ranking with $87.2 billion in
revenue to a No. 34 ranking with $72.4 billion, a drastic 20.4% decrease in revenue. Statewide, Texas was the No. 3 ranking state
with fifty (50) companies on the list, just three less than California and four less than New York with fifty-five (55). All but
three of Houston’s twenty (20) companies on the Fortune 500 list are in the energy industry and the weakened rankings of each
company on the list reflect the negative effects that low oil prices have on Houston energy companies.
Houston area residents are well-educated, with the majority of the population over 25 years of age holding a high school diploma
and residents with college/graduate educational studies outnumbering those with less than a high school education. This high
level of educational achievement is not surprising given Houston’s numerous nationally recognized colleges and universities, as well
as technical and trade schools, including Rice University, University of Houston, University of St. Thomas, Texas Southern
University, Houston Baptist University, Baylor College of Medicine, San Jacinto College, Lone Star College and Houston Community
College. Rice University ranks in the No. 14 spot in U.S. News & World Reports National University Rankings 2017 guide to
America’s best colleges, the only Texas college in the top 20.
Bolstered by above-average demographic trends and a strong base of diverse industries, Houston is well-positioned to compete in
today’s global markets. Long recognized as the energy capital of the world, with every major energy company represented
locally, Houston now stands as a global example of economic diversity. The area is home to a thriving base of industries including
medical/biomedical technology, global trade (particularly airborne and waterborne domestic/international cargo), aeronautics,
plastics manufacturing, electronics, computers, software design and integrated power.
Employment Sector
EMPLOYERS
Houston’s employment sector is large and diverse, with over 3.0M non-farm payroll jobs reported in November 2017. In 2017,
Houston only added an estimated 29,700 jobs, which is one-half of the historical average annual job growth. Looking forward,
Houston’s short-term job market is expected to see lower than average growth. The Greater Houston Partnership has
forecasted 45,500 jobs for 2018.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Houston’s industry sectors that posted annual losses of jobs between November
2016 and November 2017 include construction, information and wholesale trade. Industry sectors that registered annual job
gains during the same time period include mining and logging, manufacturing, finance and insurance, real estate and rental leasing,
professional business services, educational services, health care and social assistance, accommodation and food services,
other services and government. Job growth in mining and logging is a good indicator that Houston energy industry companies
may be putting the worst of the energy downturn behind them.
AND 50,000
50,300
45,500
A Top 10 Metro in 0
21,300
200
18,700
29,700
Business Climate
Houston has long been recognized among the most competitive U.S. cities for corporate relocation and expansion activity. Houston
ranked third among the nation’s top ten largest metro areas enriched by facility project investment from corporations in 2016,
according to Site Selection. In addition, Chief Executive Magazine (for the twelfth straight year) named Texas the “2017 Best State for
Business.” In addition to its diverse industries and educated/skilled workforce, a key factor underscoring Houston’s business
appeal is the fact that it is one of the least expensive major U.S. cities in which to conduct business. Significant benefits include the
absence of state or city income taxes, no state property tax, as well as a moderate cost of living index.
H O U S T O N / S U G A R L A N D / B AY T O W N M S A 2 0 1 7
GROSS METROPOLITAN PRODUCT $491.3 BILLION
Port Houston Energy Industry Airport System Texas Medical NASA /Johnson
Ranked No. 1 U.S. Global Energy Ranked No. 10 U.S. Center Space Center
Foreign Tonnage Capital Airport Passengers World’s Largest 1,700-acre Complex
Ranked No. 2 U.S. 4,500+ firms 54.7M Passengers Medical Complex Major Employers
Total Cargo Value in the region in 2017 (1,345 Acres) > The Boeing Company
Largest Gulf Coast 40 percent of the 455,800 metric tons 106K Employees > Lockheed Martin
container port nation’s base of Air Freight in 2017 59 Member Institutions > Jacobs Engineering
petrochemical 8M+ Patients Annually > Oceaneering Space
16K International Systems
capacity
Patients Annually > Raytheon Company
SOURCES: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Port Houston; Fly2Houston.com; Greater Houston Partnership; TMC, NASA/JSC
As a major transportation hub with two major airports, a world-renowned port and superior rail and road infrastructure, Houston
facilitates the interconnection of global business locations. Business alliances with major U.S. and international markets
are further enhanced by the presence of 91 foreign consulate offices in Houston. As of 2017, Houston still ranks third in the
U.S. – following New York and Los Angeles – in foreign consulate representation.
Houston’s ability to foster continued expansion in future-growth industries responsible for generating high quality, well-paid
jobs across all business sectors has placed it in the top tier among U.S. cities. With its numerous business advantages, Houston
is well-positioned to successfully compete in today’s global marketplace.
S E AT T L E
T R AV E L T I M E F R O M H O U S T O N
CIT Y D ISTA N C E AIR RA I L T RU C K
in hours NE W YO R K
C H I C AG O
Atlanta 793 miles 2.5 66 13
D ENV E R
Chicago 1,090 miles 2.5 86 18
Denver 1,119 miles 2.5 60 17
LO S A NG E L ES
Los Angeles 1,550 miles 3.5 90 24
AT L A NTA
Miami 1,188 miles 2.5 NA 20
New York 1,631 miles 2.5 NA 20
Seattle 2,443 miles 5.0 60 36
H O USTO N M I A MI
SOURCES: mapquest.com, Official Airlines Guide, BNSF Railway, Union Pacific Railroad, and Greater Houston Partnership Research Department
HOUSTON ECONOMIC OUTLOOK PAGE 5
$20
$0
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
H I S T O R I C N AT U R A L G A S P R I C E S
$14
Dec 2017: $2.81/MMBtu
$12 Dec 2005: $13.05/MMBtu
$10
$/ M M B t u
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Port Houston
Port Houston’s market strength and strategic location produces
a winning combination for business growth and increased industrial
development. The economic impact of Port Houston is significant,
accounting for more than 1.2 million jobs and an economic value of
$265 billion for the region. Port Houston generates $5 billion in
state and local tax revenue annually and provides $56.5 billion in
personal income and consumption expenditures.
Port Houston is recognized as the No. 1 U.S. port in foreign waterborne
tonnage and is the No. 3 ranked U.S. port in terms of total foreign
cargo value. Having 46% of the Texas market share by tonnage and
95% market share in containers by total TEUs in 2016, it is clear
that Port Houston is a key player in this significant statewide recognition.
The Port is the largest Gulf Coast container port, handling 68%
of U.S. Gulf Coast container traffic in 2016.
Port Houston handled 38.3 million tons of cargo in 2017, up from 35.1
million tons in 2016. In 2016, the Port Commission approved an
aggregate capital budget of $314 million for various infrastructure
projects. Current capital improvement projects include adding
or improving motorized and non-motorized transportation infrastructure,
sanitary and storm-water sewer infrastructure, city facilities and
other key projects. The projects are taking place at Turning Basin Wharf
23, Turning Basin South, BCT Wharf 3, BCT East End and C1, and
the Bayport Wharf 2. One of the future projects will improve mobility
and logistics, constructing 6,500 feet of rail across SH 146 to
connect with the existing rail line to within 900 feet of the Container
Freight Station Road in the Bayport Intermodal Facility.
2017 market share statistics were not published at the time this
report was written. This page will be updated when the new statistics
are released.
Photo source: www.porthouston.com
Port Houston
Total Tonnage Handled 2013-2017
Total Tonnage
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
-
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
HOUSTON ECONOMIC OUTLOOK PAGE 8
Mobility Infrastructure
Houston’s location in the south-central U.S. strategically places it
equidistant from the nation’s major population centers – New York
(1,631 miles) and Los Angeles (1,550 miles). Connection to major
national and international locations is facilitated through Houston’s
excellent transportation infrastructure, which includes the George
Bush Intercontinental Airport, William P. Hobby Airport, Ellington
Field, Port Houston, and the area’s well-integrated mainline
railroads and trucking system.
At right: In the Houston MSA, an extensive freeway system spans 747 miles. The Grand Parkway’s
extension linking Hwy 290 to I-45 and I-45 to Hwy 59 - segments F-1, F-2 and G - opened to
traffic in the first quarter of 2016, adding 38 miles of tolled roadway. Once the entire project is
completed, the Grand Parkway will mark Houston’s third outer loop, improving Houston’s traffic
flow immensely and allowing more flexibility when deciding where to work and live. Segments H,
I-1 and I-2B are next up for expansion, with construction expected to be completed in 2021.
1 US 290 I-610 Mueschke Rd Widen mainlanes and HOV lane through 13 separate projects $4.7 B Fall 2018
2 Gulf Frwy @ I-610 I-610 E I-45 N Construct direct connector from I-610 eastbound to I-45 $44.2 M OCT 2023
3 Pierce Elevated I-10 I-69 Remove existing Pierce Elevated and construct parkway connectors into CBD $158.1 M TBD, in planning
4 Highway 288 US 59 Interchange Pearland Add toll lanes, 8 direct connectors at Beltway and I-610 interchanges $815 M Spring 2019
5 I-610 @ US 290 Old Katy Rd Ella Blvd Reconstruct US 290/IH 610 interchange w/ direct connectors/managed lanes $282 M Fall 2018
6 Gulf Frwy, Galveston Co Highway 96 Deats Rd Widen to 8 main lanes and 2 two-lane frontage roads $121.7 M NOV 2021
7 North Frwy, Harris Co Crosstimbers Airline Reconstruct frontage roads $6.3 M TBD
8 US 59, Fort Bend Co Highway 99 FM 2919 Widen to 6 main lanes and 2 frontage road lanes through separate projects $18.6-$66 M Late 2020
9 I-610 at US 59 I-610 I-610 Reconstruct I-610 main lane bridge within the interchange at US 59 S $46.7 M TBD, in bidding
10 Highway 225, Harris Co Beltway 8 Battleground Rd Improve illumination $5.1 M TBD, in planning
HOUSTON ECONOMIC OUTLOOK PAGE 9
Airport System
The Houston Airport System (HAS) is one of the world’s leading multi-airport facilities and includes George Bush Intercontinental
Airport, William P. Hobby Airport and Ellington Field. HAS ranked 10th nationally and 29th internationally in passenger volume
in 2017, carrying more than 54.7 million passengers and 455,805 metric tons of air freight, a 6.8% increase from 2016. The Houston
Airport System is directly responsible for more than 230,000 jobs and has a local economic impact of more than $27 billion annually.
A I R PA S S E N G E R S
D OMEST I C & IN T E R N AT IO N A L
International Domestic
6 0,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000.000
-
2016
2017
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
288
Texas Children’s Hospital - World’s largest children’s hospital HOU 146
and #1 in U.S. News & World Reports “Americas Best Hospitals 8 EFD
RICHMOND
2017-2018” for Pediatric Cardiology & Heart Surgery LEAGUE CITY
B I O S C I E N C E S
JAN 2018 Dunn awards support breakthrough research to scientists at Rice University and other GCC institutions
SEP 2017 Prepping for Mars, NASA launches new biosciences center
SEP 2017 Texas A&M researchers receive more than $9 million in grants for cancer efforts
SEP 2017 Device accurately identifies cancer in seconds during surgery
AUG 2017 Alzeca receives $11M for Early Alzheimer’s Detection Technology
AUG 2017 Research reveals how estrogen regulates gene expression, according to study at Baylor
AUG 2017 ViraCyte, LLC in Houston, receives $8.99M grant from Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas
JUN 2017 Texas Biomed and UT Health Houston to team on $4.4M tuberculosis vaccine study
Outside of the TMC, Black Forest Technology Park, located in The Woodlands (30 miles north of downtown
Houston), is a long-standing major research center designed specifically for scientific, research and
biotechnology companies. Other established business parks/organizations geared toward biotechnology
commercialization in the Houston region include the Genesis Biotechnology Park and BioHouston, Inc. Genesis
Biotechnology Park comprises 16 innovative life science companies and researchers located just south of
the TMC. The Park was developed to increase venture capital interests in Houston and is committed to
supporting start-up companies by providing tenant options for shared office, wet laboratory space (including
equipment) and flexible leases. BioHouston, Inc., a non-profit corporation founded by Houston-area
academic/research institutions, is actively leading a broad-based effort to strengthen Houston’s position as a
global competitor in life science and biotechnology. BioHouston’s Resource Center, the first incubator
facility serving the Houston life sciences community, is housed at the Genesis Biotechnology Park, adding a key
component to ongoing commercialization efforts. The Center is specifically designed to serve start-up
biotech and life sciences companies by offering access to shared laboratory space, research resources and
networking opportunities with a community of biotech entrepreneurs.
The BioScience Research Collaborative built by Rice University is an innovate-space where scientists and
educators from Rice University and other TMC institutions work together to perform leading research
that benefits human medicine and health. Shortly after opening in 2010, the National Space Biomedical Research
Institute (NSBRI) and Baylor College of Medicine’s Center for Space Medicine joined the Collaborative.
Funded by NASA in collaboration with Baylor College of Medicine, the NSBRI is studying and solving the health
risks and problems related to long-duration spaceflight.
From a base of cutting-edge research, Houston has taken the next step in its evolution as a primary life-science
cluster by creating an environment conducive for private companies to develop and market life science
products. With key initiatives in place to bring together the public and private sectors, as well as significant
improvements to the scope of services and incentives available to private companies, the infrastructure is
in place to capitalize on Houston’s strong research base and convert it into commercialized product. With this
process now in motion, the biotech future in Houston looks bright.
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