CHAPTER FIVE

5.0 CONCLUSION

Increasing the greenhouse gases levels in the atmosphere had an effect on the temperature of the
West African Region. The near-earth temperature (surface temperature) showed the most
variation in its values when the CO2, N2O and CH4 level in the atmosphere was doubled and
CFC11 and CFC12 halved. The surface temperature had increment of up to 3.8K when the CO 2,
N2O and CH4 level in the atmosphere were doubled. Presently, the historically highest increase
in the surface temperature being experienced is 0.7K (NOAA, 2016). The gases that produced
the most increase in surface temperature values were non-CO2 greenhouse gases (N2O and CH4)
which correlates with the findings of Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative
scenario (Hansen et al., 2000). Researchers argued that rapid warming in recent decades has been
driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) (Hansen et al, 2000).

Liberia and Sierra-Leone were the Countries that had consistent increase in their temperature
values when CO2, N2O and CH4 level in the atmosphere were doubled. This can be attributed to
the lack of highlands in the topographical configuration of the regions. This finding corroborates
the documentation of the influence of topography on the climate of East Africa (Ogwang et al,
2014) and the findings of The influence of topography on tropical African vegetation coverage
(Jung et al, 2015).

The result also showed that the reduction of CFC11 and CFC12 in the atmosphere slightly and
sparsely reduced the surface temperature of most parts of the West African region. However,
there were regions and months that the reduction of CFC11 and CFC12 led to increase in
temperature values (Maximum2 meter temperature for July, August, and September),
Precipitation and 10 m wind speed. This shows some degree of variation from the work on the
effects of greenhouse gases and land use on the climate of the tropics (Peath et al, 2008), where
the researchers claimed that the increase in GHGs forcings led to increase in climate parameters
in the Tropics.

Central Nigeria also showed the most consistent decrease in its temperature values and this can
be attributed to the presence of mountains and highlands in the region (Ogwang et al, 2014; Jung
et al, 2015). The 2 meters temperature result correlated with the pattern of the surface

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temperature values with a decrease in the values on close observation. This implied that the
greenhouse effect on temperature was felt more strongly near the surface of the earth and that the
further up we go, the lesser the effect on temperature.

Precipitation was also affected when the CO2, N2O and CH4 level in the atmosphere was
doubled. Liberia was affected the most by having less precipitation consistently when the gases’
levels in the atmosphere were doubled. This inverse pattern is in agreement with the work done
on the impact of changes in Atlantic sea surface temperature on the climate of West Africa
(Adeniyi, 2016). This might mean that dry season in this region will get drier as those gases
increase over the years. The Southern parts of Nigeria, Ivory Coast and Ghana had the most
increase in precipitation when CO2, N2O and CH4 levels were doubled. This can be attributed to
the anomalies of SSTs over the Atlantic Ocean (Opoku-Ankomah and Cordery, 1993), the
tropical convection system (WAM) of these regions and the topographical configuration of the
regions (Jung et al, 2015; Ogwang et al, 2014). If these greenhouse gases continue to increase,
these Countries might be susceptible to heavy downpours which can eventually lead to flood
(UNEP, 2005).

From the results obtained, lowering the CFC11 and CFC12 level in the atmosphere did not have
a strong effect on the precipitation of the land regions of West Africa. However, it caused mostly
incremental difference in the precipitation values over the Atlantic Ocean. 10m wind speed was
increased mostly in Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Chad (Saharan region) when the level of CO 2,
N2O and CH4 was doubled and it mostly increased when CFC11 and CFC12 level was halved.

This research concluded that while CO2 had significant effect on the climate parameters that
were being considered, CH4 and N2O were the greenhouse gases that had the most effects on
temperature and other climate parameters. The reduction of CFC11 and CFC12 did reduce
temperature values; it did not for precipitation and wind speed. This study is also inclined to
agree that if sources of non-CO2 GHGs in the future can be reduced, change in climate forcing
by GHGs generally could be reduced drastically. It was therefore recommended that the
Governments of West Africa and the World’s efforts to reduce Carbon emission should continue
and that they should also focus on reducing the emission of CH4 and N2O.