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Jan 2018 Q
Jan 2018 Q
Economics
International Advanced Subsidiary
Unit 2: Macroeconomic Performance and Policy
Instructions
• Use black ink or ball-point pen.
• Fill in the boxes at the top of this page with your name,
centre number and candidate number.
• Answer all the questions in Section A and one question from Section B.
• Answer the questions in the spaces provided
– there may be more space than you need.
Information
• The total mark for this paper is 80.
• The marks for each question are shown in brackets
– use this as a guide as to how much time to spend on each question.
• You should take care in your responses with your spelling, punctuation and
grammar, as well as the clarity of expression.
• Calculators may be used.
Advice
• Read each question carefully before you start to answer it.
• Check your answers if you have time at the end.
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P51977A
©2018 Pearson Education Ltd.
1/1/1/1/1/1/1
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SECTION A
Answer ALL questions in this section.
You should spend 35 minutes on this section. Use the data to support your answers where
relevant. You may annotate and include diagrams in your answers.
1 The table shows the total GDP and population of Argentina, 2012 to 2015.
Total GDP
548 934 554 155 529 726 583 168
(US$ million)
Population
42.1 42.5 43.0 43.4
(million)
(a) Which one of the following can be deduced from the data?
GDP per capita
(1)
A decreased between 2012 and 2013
B was lowest in 2012
C was highest in 2015
Answer
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(b) Explanation
(3)
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2 The aggregate demand (AD) and short-run aggregate supply (SRAS) diagram shows
the United Kingdom (UK) economy in equilibrium at real output Y and average price
level PL.
Average
price level
SRAS
PL
AD
0 Y Real output
(a) Between June and October 2016, there was a 19% depreciation of the UK pound
against the US dollar. Ceteris paribus, which one of the following is the most likely
consequence?
(1)
A Shift of the AD curve to the left and the SRAS curve to the right
B Shift of the AD curve to the right and the SRAS curve to the left
C Shift of both the AD curve and the SRAS curve to the right
D Shift of both the AD curve and the SRAS curve to the left
Answer
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(b) Explanation
(3)
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3 The chart shows the average percentage change in consumer prices, as measured by
the consumer price index (CPI), for Thailand between 2008 and 2015.
% 2
-1
-2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
(Source: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/thailand)
Answer
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(b) Explanation
(3)
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4 In the first six months of 2016, Germany’s tax revenues exceeded government
expenditure by €18.5 billion.
(a) From this data, it can be deduced that, in this period, there was
(1)
A a net injection from the government sector in the circular flow of income
B a balanced budget in the German economy
C an increase in the value of exports and a fall in the value of imports
D a net withdrawal from the government sector in the circular flow of income
Answer
(b) Explanation
(3)
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5
Average LRAS
price
level
SRAS
PL1
AD
0 Y1 Y2 Real output
Answer
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(b) Explanation
(3)
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6 It is estimated that more than 20% of part-time workers in the European Union (EU)
are employed for fewer hours than they would be willing to work.
(a) This suggests that, in the EU, there is
(1)
A a positive output gap
B a high rate of unemployment
C declining productivity
D a high level of underemployment
Answer
(b) Explanation
(3)
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7 The diagram shows the short-run Phillips curve for an economy.
Wage
inflation
(%)
W3
W2
(a) Which one of the following conflicts between macroeconomic objectives can the
diagram be used to represent?
(1)
A Inflation and equilibrium on the current account of the balance of payments
B Economic growth and environmental sustainability
C Low inflation rate and full employment
D Balanced budgets and short-run growth
Answer
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(b) Explanation
(3)
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8 (a) It has been estimated that the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) for an
economy is 0.8. After a $2 billion increase in business investment, ceteris paribus,
which one of the following shows the increase in GDP for this economy?
(1)
A $2 billion
B $2.25 billion
C $8 billion
D $10 billion
Answer
(b) Explanation
(3)
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SECTION B
Answer EITHER Question 9 OR Question 10.
You are advised to spend 55 minutes on this question.
5
4
3
2
1
% 0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
Real GDP growth (annual %) Inflation (CPI annual % change)
(Source: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/eu)
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Figure 2 Unemployment rate in selected member states in August 2016
(seasonally adjusted)
Spain 20%
Italy 11%
France 11%
Sweden 7%
Germany 4%
(Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/268830/unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/)
Extract 2 Unemployment
Europe is in a jobs crisis. Eight years on from the financial crash of 2008,
unemployment remains the biggest threat to the economies of the EU.
October 2016 labour market data show that the average unemployment rate fell
to 10%, its lowest level since September 2011. However, the headline number 5
hides a growing divide between the strongest and weakest economies. German
unemployment fell to just 4%. As Europe’s largest economy, Germany has created
33 000 jobs a month on average between 2010 and 2016. In Greece, unemployment
rates have been around 25% since 2014.
Italy’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 11% at the end of December 10
2015, despite labour market reforms. However, it is not just countries in Southern
Europe that are experiencing labour market problems. Finland’s unemployment rate
increased to 9.2% at the end of 2015, the country’s highest unemployment rate since
the pre-euro days of 1998.
(Source: adapted from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12136090/Mapped-
Europe-divided-how-the-jobless-disease-is-splitting-the-continent-apart.html)
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(a) With reference to Extract 1, explain what is meant by the term ‘demand-side
policies’.
(4)
(b) With reference to the information provided and your own knowledge, assess the
view that there is always a conflict between the macroeconomic objectives of
balanced budgets and short-run economic growth.
(10)
(c) With reference to the information provided, explain the impact of low business
confidence on economic growth.
(6)
(d) With reference to the information provided and your own knowledge, assess the
likely costs of high unemployment in the EU.
(14)
(e) Evaluate the likely effects of supply-side policies on economic growth in the EU.
(14)
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(a) With reference to Extract 1, explain what is meant by the term ‘demand-side
policies’.
(4)
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(b) With reference to the information provided and your own knowledge, assess the
view that there is always a conflict between the macroeconomic objectives of
balanced budgets and short-run economic growth.
(10)
22
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. . . . . . . . . . . . .................................... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........... ............................................................................................................................... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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(c) With reference to the information provided, explain the impact of low business
confidence on economic growth.
(6)
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(d) With reference to the information provided and your own knowledge, assess the
likely costs of high unemployment in the EU.
(14)
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(e) Evaluate the likely effects of supply-side policies on economic growth in the EU.
(14)
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. . . . . . . . . . . . .................................... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........... ............................................................................................................................... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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If you answer Question 10 put a cross in the box .
10 The economy of Nigeria
Figure 1 Annual percentage change in real GDP and the rate of inflation,
2008–2016
16
14
12
10
8
%
6
-2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *2016
Year
Real GDP growth (annual %) Inflation (CPI annual % change)
*2016 forecast data
Indicator
Ranking Value
Human Development Index (HDI)
152 0.51
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Extract 1 A planned fiscal stimulus
Nigeria’s Ministry of Budget and National Planning says it has designed a fiscal
stimulus strategy that will help the economy out of the recession which started in the
second quarter of 2016.
The emphasis of the plan, published in September 2016, was on the need for 5
the country to spend its way out of recession through an injection of increased
government spending. The Ministry stated that the major factor responsible for the
recession was the decline in oil revenues and the over-dependence of the economy
on this single commodity. Negative growth was thought to be the outcome of a
failure to diversify the economy. The collapse in the oil price has also led to reduced 10
confidence, leading to declining foreign direct investment from $9.7 billion by the
end of the second quarter 2014, to $0.64 billion at the end of the second quarter
of 2016.
(Source: adapted from http://thenewsnigeria.com.ng/2016/09/fg-plans-
fiscal-stimulus-strategy-to-inject-15bn-in-ailing-economy/)
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(a) With reference to Figure 2, calculate the current account of the balance of
payments in 2015.
(4)
(b) With reference to the information provided, assess the economic effects of
Nigeria’s reliance on oil exports for economic growth.
(10)
(c) Evaluate the likely impact of a ‘fiscal stimulus’ (Extract 1, lines 2 and 3) on the
Government’s macroeconomic objectives other than economic growth.
(14)
(d) With reference to Figure 2, explain how the components of the HDI are measured.
(6)
(e) To what extent might Government policies be successful in transforming
the Nigerian economy from ‘import dependence to an export-led economy’
(Extract 2, line 10).
(14)
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(a) With reference to Figure 2, calculate the current account of the balance of
payments in 2015.
(4)
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(b) With reference to the information provided, assess the economic effects of
Nigeria’s reliance on oil exports for economic growth.
(10)
36
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. . . . . . . . . . . . .................................... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........... ............................................................................................................................... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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(c) Evaluate the likely impact of a ‘fiscal stimulus’ (Extract 1, lines 2 and 3) on the
Government’s macroeconomic objectives other than economic growth.
(14)
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. . . . . . . . . . . . .................................... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........... ............................................................................................................................... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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(d) With reference to Figure 2, explain how the components of the HDI are measured.
(6)
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(e) To what extent might Government policies be successful in transforming
the Nigerian economy from ‘import dependence to an export-led economy’
(Extract 2, line 10).
(14)
42
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. . . . . . . . . . . . .................................... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........... ............................................................................................................................... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Every effort has been made to contact copyright holders to obtain their permission for the use of copyright
material. Pearson Education Ltd. will, if notified, be happy to rectify any errors or omissions and include any
such rectifications in future editions.
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