Soldats®: Analysis & Trade Idea

V2 SOLDATS® ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEA
(An Elite Training Programme under WSJ)
IDENTIFICATION
V2 SOLDAT MEMBER / STUDENT NAME: MOHD AZLAN SHAH
ANALYSIS DATE: 25th MAR 2017
CURRENCY PAIR / COMMODITY / INDICE: USDJPY
TRAINER: ADHA @The_Janissary (Telegram)
BROKER: FXPRIMUS
TYPE OF TRADE: SWING
CURRENT FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

USD FED MONETARY POLICY
Statement: 15-03-2017
Fundamental: Tightening – increase target Fed Fund Rate 25bps to 0.75%-1.00% in line with
market expectation
Tools: Interest rate (1.00%)
Target data Indicator: Inflation, employment
Forward guidance: Implementation note indicated another 2 rate hikes in 2017 (nearest
possible hike announcement in June 2017)
JPY BOJ MONETARY POLICY

Statement: 16-03-2017
Fundamental: Holding (Easing) - in line with market expectation
Tools: Interest rate (-0.1%), QQE

Target data Indicator: Inflation
Forward guidance: Further easing (QQE with yield control curve and lower interest rate).
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https://telegram.me/janissaries
CURRENT OVERALL SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

↑USD : Tightening monetary policy
↑USD : Interest Rate Differential = 1.00%-(-0.1%)
= 1.10%
↑USD : 10YR Yield Spread = 2.4177%-0.066%
= 2.3517%
FUNDAMENTAL BULLISH USDJPY
↓JPY : Easing monetary policy
↓JPY : Interest Rate Differential = -0.1-1.00%
= -1.00%
↓JPY : 10YR Yield Spread = 0.066%-2.4177%
= -2.3517%
↓USD : Trump Policies and its broader effect
uncertainties
↓USD : Post FOMC meeting, no change in rate
projection for 2017 and 2018 and no reassessment
of economic outlook
↓USD : Post FOMC meeting, 1 Dovish dissenter vote
↓USD : USD has been priced in for hike, buy the
rumours and sell the news
↓USD : Mixed opinion among FOMC member
regarding upcoming hike rates (s) in terms of
INTERMARKET BEARISH USDJPY frequency and data supporting it
↓USD : Healthcare vote against Obamacare did not
get full support from Trumps own Republican party
members
↑JPY : UK to trigger Article 50 on Wednesday 29th

Mar 2017. Market continues with risk off mode in
search of safe heavens
↑JPY : Window dressing activity before end of
quarter (March 2017) to improve the appearance
of fund performance by fund managers
Price is already ranging at current key price from the
medium term bearish trend. There is a possibility of:
- A short-term correction at current key price

for a retracement to complete smaller wave
TECHNICAL BEARISH USDJPY structure and then to enter sell position at
better price
or
- Awaiting for breakout to continue bearish

movement from current key price.
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UPCOMING INFORMATION
Page 3 of 15
10 YEARS BOND YIELD
US 10Y Bond Yield may either continue edging downwards for short term bearish USD to key level
for D4 Entry and then a bullish move upward to D4 TP. If USD turns bullish, the Bond Yield will edge
higher to B2 TP.
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10 YEARS BOND YIELD
JP 10Y Bond Yield may continue its bearish move down to Buyer D4 TP or rally upward to MAX REV
Entry.
Page 5 of 15
INDEX
US S&P500 may either move down to initiate wave D4. If USD is bullish, it may continue its rally
movement up to complete wave B2.
Page 6 of 15
INDEX
US DJ may continue its downward movement to initiate waveD4 if USD is in bearish mode. If bullish
sentiment prevails, DJ is expected to rally up to complete wave B2.
Page 7 of 15
INDEX
US ND may continue its rally and then complete wave B2 if USD is in bullish mode. If bearish
sentiments prevail, it will edge downward to initiate MAX REV Entry.
Page 8 of 15
INDEX
JP NIKKEI 225 may either rally upward to complete wave B2 or move downward to initiate D4 entry.
Page 9 of 15
DXY – USD DOLLAR INDEX
DXY – US Dollar Index may be edging down to initiate MAX REV Entry. If USD is bullish, it will rally
up to D4 TP.
Page 10 of 15
JUNE 2017 YEN FUTURE
JUNE YEN FUTURES may rally higher to initiate MAX REV Entry or move down to complete D4 TP if
bearish sentiment prevails.
Page 11 of 15
CURRENT AMERICAN STYLE OPTION KEY LEVELS
REMARK (No option level information available as of 9:25pm 26th March 2017)
Page 12 of 15
TECHNICAL CHART ANALYSIS
Page 13 of 15
REMARK : Overall medium term USDJPY trend is bearish. At current key level pricing, UJ may either
perform a short term retracement upward to 112.518 via wave D4 (H1 TF) from entry to TP. The best
key level pricing to re-enter a short position is at D4 TP (H1 TF). However, if the bearish momentum
is high, UJ may continue its downward movement towards MAX REV Entry 107.904 (H1 TF).
However, looking at Daily TF, current key price is at 1.27 Fibo level for V2 Daily Marking with A1
Wave Daily Entry triggered from 111.364.
Combining H1 and Daily V2 marking, I am targeting to enter Sell Entry from 111.364 (Daily Marking)
or from 112.518 (H1 Marking) with Take Profit target at 109.567.
Page 14 of 15
TECHNICAL TRADE IDEA

ENTRY TYPE SELL LIMIT
EXPIRY DATE
PRICE LEVEL OF ENTRY E1 Entry: 111.364 / E2 Entry: 112.518
PRICE LEVEL OF PROFIT TAKING E1 & E2 TP: 109.567
PIPS E1 Pips: 179.7 / E2 Pips: 295.1
PRICE LEVEL OF STOP LOSS IF AVAILABLE
PIPS
PRICE LEVEL OF COUNTER MEASURE IF CM Entry: 114.292
AVAILABLE)
RANGE OF PIPS FROM PREVIOUS ENTRY E1 Pips: 292.8 / E2 Pips: 177.4
LEVEL
TAKE PROFIT LEVEL IF COUNTER MEASURE CM TP: 110.756
TRIGGERS
OVERALL PIPS IF HIT COUNTER MEASURE’S E1: 179.7+353.6 (HOLDING & HIT BOTH TPS)
E2: 295.1+353.6 (HOLDING & HIT BOTH TPS)
TAKE PROFIT LEVEL (FIRST
ENTRY+COUNTER MEASURE LEVEL ENTRY) 60.8+353.6 (MANUAL CLOSE E1 @ CM TP)
176.2+353.6 (MANUAL CLOSE E2 @ CM TP)
TYPE OF TRADE SWING
RESULT POSTMORTERM
HIT TP
HIT SL
COUNTER MEASURE TRIGGER
MANUAL TAKE PROFIT
LEVEL OF MANUAL TAKE PROFIT
MANUAL TAKE PROFIT PIPS
MANUAL CUT LOSS
LEVEL OF MANUAL CUT LOSS
MANUAL CUT LOSS PIPS
COMMENT
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Soldats®: Analysis & Trade Idea

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V2 SOLDATS® ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEA

(An Elite Training Programme under WSJ)

CURRENT FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

JPY BOJ MONETARY POLICY

Tools: Interest rate (-0.1%), QQE

CURRENT OVERALL SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

↑JPY : UK to trigger Article 50 on Wednesday 29th

- A short-term correction at current key price

- Awaiting for breakout to continue bearish

10 YEARS BOND YIELD

10 YEARS BOND YIELD

DXY – USD DOLLAR INDEX

JUNE 2017 YEN FUTURE

CURRENT AMERICAN STYLE OPTION KEY LEVELS

TECHNICAL CHART ANALYSIS

TECHNICAL TRADE IDEA

MANUAL CUT LOSS PIPS

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