THESIS RISK ASSESSMENT OF MANGROVES DEFORESTATION USING REMOTE SENSING AND GIs CASE STUDY : AYEYARWADY DELTA , MYANMAR By: TINT KHAING 99740 GRADUATE PROGRAM BOGOR AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY SEAMEO BIOTROP INDONESIA , 2001’ THESIS RISK ASSESSMENT OF MANGROVES DEFORESTATION USING REMOTE SENSING AND GIS CASE STUDY : AYEYARWADY DELTA , MYANMAR Tint Khaing 99740 This thesis, Submitted to Graduate School of Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia in fulfill of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management GRADUATE PROGRAM BOGOR AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY SEAMEO BIOTROP INDONESIA , 2001ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: “The author would like to express his deepest gratitude and affection to my supervisor Dr. Ir. Upik Rosalina Wastin , DEA , forher suggestions on the thesis and whose guidance proved extremely valuable in the completion of this study. I would like to acknowledge my special gratitude to. my co-supervisors , Dr. H. Cecep Kusmana and Associate Professor U Kyaw Htun , for their ‘encouragement , valuable comments and suggestions in completing this research thesis. 1 also wish to thank my scholarship and research grant , SEAMEO , for giving the financial support , which made my study in Indonesia possible. My sincere appreciation to Myanmar Forest Department and staffs from Mangrove project and GIS section for their help in getting the information, documents and publications needed , especially to Dr. Kyaw Tint , Director General, U Htun Paw Oo , Director and U Maung Maung Than , Assistant Director. My special appreciation to my friends, Ko Kyaw Sithu , Ko Kyaw Moe Htun , Ko Maung Maung Htun and Ko Myint Aung , from Myanmar Embassy , Jakarta for their continued support and encouragement throughout the period of my study , making it successful and memorable, Grateful appreciation is also conveyed to faculties, staffs and friends at SEAMEO BIOTROP for helping me a lot to study in here. The author doesn’t ‘want to forget his thanks to his classmates who gave the valuable help and Kindness to him. Special thanks to my parents , with countless love and great desire, carved iy life to be an educated person. My parents in law who enconraged and assisted ‘to pursue in Indonesia are also appreciated. The last but not the least , the author wishes to express my warmest thanks to his loving wife , Ma Khin ‘Thidar Shein who shows her concern with an unsolfish deed, understanding and offering a comforting hand and his little son Kaung Htet Khaing .SUMMARY ‘The present status of Ayeyarwady Delta is alarming and require an accurate and up to date information based on the status of mangroves over times in particular for conservation and sustainable management, that is why the ‘Ayeyarwady Delta was identified to be further investigated. This study was conducted dealing with multi-temporal analysis of 1995 and 2000 Landsat TM satellite data covering the Ayeyarwady Delta. Ayeyarwady delta is located in the southem part of Myanmar , between 15° - 18° latitudes north and 94° and 96° longitudes east. It is surrounded by Myanmar sea and bay of Bengal in the south and south-west. The total area of Ayeyarwady Division is approximately 155,795 sq-km. The mangrove of the Ayeyarwady delta is the largest having 177,327 ha, compared to other areas of Rakhine (64,777 ha ) and Taninthary ( 140,485 ha). ‘The mangrove natural resources and environment in the Ayeyarwady delta area are being deteriorated. If the situation continue, the environmental problems in Ayeyarwady delta will become more severe. Such harmful activities require the sufficient planning and management to avoid conflicts and maintain the ‘environmental quality , scenery and scientific value. However, this is not possible without ecological knowledge and adequate techniques that are available for ‘mangrove management, Application of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System{ GIS ) techniques are useful tools to support a multi-sector resource planning and sustainable management for the Ayeyarwady delta area. ‘The main objective of the present study is to predict or forecast spatial projections and future trends of mangroves deforestation by identifying deforestation risk prone areas. This will help the decision makers in formulating forest management strategies. While the specific objectives are :1)To identify the stand density classes of mangrove forests; 2)To monitor the changes of mangrove forest cover; 3)To identify the deforestation risk area for the prediction of future trends of deforestation in the Ayeyarwady Delta. Data used in this research were Landsat TM 1995 and Landsat 2000 received from Forest Department , Myanmar.The result shows that the mangrove of the Ayeyarwady Delta is categorized as high risk and degraded state , and without stringent measures to protect this unique vegetation type from further encroachment and degradation, it will disappear within a few decades. The factors of mangrove changes in the study area is agricultural encroachment derived by the increasing of population density and fuel wood needed by the local people. In general , the mangrove area decreased gradually , a5 well as the mangrove density . The sparse vegetations ‘were more dynamic and cover larger than others during this period. ‘The best area for mangrove growth and protection in the study area was Mainmahla Protected Reserve. The deforestation risk map identifies areas likely toexperience severe pressure due to illegal felling, and forest encroachment. This research shows that spatial distribution can provide information not ‘only on how much forest is likely to be cleared, but also specific locations which have the highest risk of being deforested. itiResearch Title Risk Assessment of Mangroves Deforestation using Remote Sensing and GIS Case Smdy : Ayeyarwady Delta Student Name Tint Khaing Student ID 99740) MIT Study Program: Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management This thesis is approved by the Advisory Board Dr, Ir.Upik Rosaling Wasrin , DEA Supervisor —— mana Associate Prof, U Kyaw Hun, MSc, Co-supervisor Co-supervisor Head of Study Program sea aed ivTable of Contents List of Figures~ List of Appendices I. Introduction 1.1 Background—------ 1.2 Problem Statement ——- 1.3 Objectives ——- 1.4 Description of study area IL Literature Review 2.1 Mangrove Vegetation-———-—-——- 2.2 Remote Sensing. 23 GIS —————— Ill. Methodology 3.1. Period and Location —-----eseeeeeemennn— 3.2 Data Collection -raenne--ee een 3.3 Equipment and Software —- 3.4 Image Processing 3.5 Accuracy Evaluation 3.6 Ground Survey 3.7 GIS analysis for change detection and producing the deforestation risk at€@ ——an—evnneemenneeeemnr IV. Results and Discussion 4.1 Preprocessing of Original Image ————--—=—-e--ewvvnneeeennne— 38 4.2 Image Classification omonm----———aeennnneem 4.3 Classification Accuracy Assessment 4.4 Land use / cover description -———~ 4.5 Ground Check and Inventory =-eee-eonemm— 4.6 Land Use Changes Detection —---—-— 4.7 Factors of Mangroves Changes in Study Area — 4.8 Linkages between Mangrove Ecosystems and Socio-economic Functions of the Communities — 4.9. Risk analysis of mangroves deforestation in the study areaY. Conclusions and Recommendations 5.1. Conclusions ——---—-=---—-—-—- 66 5.2 Recommendations 68 | Appendix — ——— 2List of Tables «Principle Application for each band of Landsat TM ~-——-—~-14 ‘Table 12. General types of image information extraction -—-——— ~~ 15 Table.IV.1 Accuracy of Classified Images Table V2, Producer and user's accuracy derived from kappa calculation of training areas -————~ 6. Table.IV.3 User's and Producer's accuracy for classification of both waene 1995 and 2000 images ease 42 7. Table.IV.4 Statistics Values of Each Classes on Image 2000-—----—--— 43 8. Table IV.5 The general descriptions ofthe identified land use types in this study --—-————----—- 9, ‘Table [V.6, Land use changes between 1995 and 2000 —— 10. Table IV,7. Land use change patter land use types — LU. Table.V.8. The changes of mangroves in density class during the period 1995-2000 - 53 12. Table.IV.9. Scoring of each class for mangrove deforestation risk model —-—— 13. Table 4.10. Reclassification of the result score 14, Table 4.11. Deforestation risk area in each mangrove forest density types —-—— viieee mae List of Figures Figure.1.1 The location of the study area —— ‘Figure.I11.1 Flow Chart of Digital Image Processing ‘Figure I11.2. Flow Chart of GIS Analysis to procedure for ‘management of mangrove forests -=------———-—- 36 Figure IIL3 Flow Chart of hierarchical analysis of the deforestation risk area determination—--——-——-—weee= 37 Figure.IV.1.The original images of the stuffy area in year 1995 and year 2000. ———--———- Figure.IV.2 Classification Map of 1995 image ~ Figure.IV.3 Classification Map of 2000 image ~ ‘Figure.IV.4 Land Use Changes of the Study Area during, the Period 1995 and 2000 ~ viiio Appendix Appendix Appendix aependin Appendix waqeuqeaas 13.Appendix. 14.Appendix. 15.Appendix. Appendix. Appendix. . Appendix. 10.Appendix. 11 Appendix. 12.Appendix. Metadata saan nnnnnnnnnennnnnnns ee 74 Population data of the study area in year 1995 and Year 2000 —~ 76 Error Matrix Analysis aecnecenee Summary result of Focus Group Discussion —--—-—-——— Foous Group Discussion Format during the field survey —--—-——- 81 Classification Accuracy Result —- Result of vegetation inventory in the field -—----—— . Forest Inventory Format Sheet 10, Land use / land cover map of study area ( 1995 ) 11, Land use / land cover map of study area ( 2000 ) 12, Roads networks in study area —— 13, Streams networks in study area. =----e----- 14 Population density mep of study area 15. Forest cover map of study area —~ 16. Deforestation risk model map of study area 17. Field Photos ~ PRI AWALY ix1, INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background In the tropical and sub-tropical inter-tidal regions, mangrove forests are predominant in a sheltered coastlines, mudflats and riverbanks characterized by its tolerance to salt and brackish water, (TUCN, 1984) Mangroves are characteristics in littoral plant formations of tropical and subtropical sheltered coastlines, and variously described as ‘coastal woodland’, ‘tidal forest? and ‘mangrove forest’ (FAO , 1994) . Based on remote sensing data, total mangrove area of the world is approximately 16,670,00 ha, including 7,487,000 ha in tropical Asia , 5,781,000 ha in tropical America and 3,402,000 ha in tropical Africa ( Saenger ef al.,1983 ; UNESCO, 1987 ). ‘They grow in the regions with continuous high temperature, rainfall and suitable terrain. They have their own unique and distinct biophysical features, limitations and potentials. They were highly productive and the population of the communities dwelling in these mangroves had been low for the past centuries. ‘Therefore, a balance had existed between the mangroves and the swamp dwellers who had used the resources in harmony and sustained. It is one of the most productive ecosystems and natural renewable resources. The people living in coastal areas are depending on these forests as their primary source of income, fuel wood, food, medicines and other basic necessities such as timber for housing and roofing materials. Wise management of these resources is therefore essential for their sustainable use and for the cultural and socio-economic welfare of the coastal inhabitants ( Aksomkoae , 1993). However, in the recent years the pressures from population increase, over exploitation of timber and firewood, requirement for food production and industrial as well as urban development have caused significant destruction of the mangrove resources. In addition, due to stringent social and economic stress and population pressure, the mangrove forests are being constantly encroached andconverted into agricultural land, and fish and prawn ponds as well as salt evaporation ponds for commercial purposes. Unlike tropical moist forests, much of the conversion of mangrove ecosystem is based upon the assumption that mangroves are wastelands which are of no value until they have heen developed through conversion of some other dizect method of exploitation for cash products (IUCN, 1984 ). ‘The degradation and denudation of mangroves forest in Myanmar are also a matter of concem for those living along the coastal area . The socio- economic and environmental conditions of coastal community will greatly be affected. Governments and intemational organizations and funding agencies have come to realize that valuable mangroves are being depleted at an unacceptable level. Local communities have also come to realize that natural resources on which they depend for their livelihood and protection are being destroyed at an alarming rate. This awareness has resulted in demands for improved management and restoration of the mangrove ecosystems. Hence, the mangrove restoration programmes are being implemented in many countries including Myanmar in order to improve the mangrove ecosystems. A. total area of mangrove forests in Myanmar is approximately 382,168 ha distributing in Rakhine Division, Taninthayi Division and Ayeyarwady Delta. ‘Among them, Ayeyarwady Delta is the largest, with coverage of approximately 177,327 ba (Pe Thein , 1989 ). Increase in population ,very often causes over cutting and encroachment of forest land for agricultural purpose. Moreover, charcoal production from this area are the main supply to Yangon, the capital city of Myanmar, where nearly four million people live. Due to these reasons, nearly fifty thousand hectares of forests areas were changed into other land-use between 1954 and 1989 in ‘Ayeyarwady Delta. After 1989, the rate of forest degradation and denudation ‘was higher - than that of before 1984. The rate of mangrove deforestation in Ayeyarwady Delta is 7775 ba per year, which is three times from those of other high forests in Myanmar. ( Sit Bo, 1992)Myanmar fish production has been continuously rising in the 1990s. The total fish catch is, however, still below the maximum sustainable yield. According to a survey made in 1995, fishery production in Bogalay Township has been greatly affected by the mangrove destruction in the Ayeyarwady Delta.( Myanmar Environmental Fact Sheet, 1999 ). The Ayeyarwady Division is considered as an important area of fishery production, but in recent years, fish and fishery products are becoming scarce and the prices of fish, shrimp as well as other products such as dried fish, dried prawns and shrimp pastes have risen sharply. Unless the proper remedial measures are immediately adopted, these forests are going to be disappeared soon. The accurate and updated information is. very critical in order to maintain the mangrove ecosystem. This ultimately contributes to the ecologically sustainable development of the region. Resources planners and decision makers need information on the rate and impacts of deforestation. Moreover, providing information on the potential deforestation risk areas will be highly useful for mangrove resource management. 4.2 Problem Statement Mangrove forests form an integral component of the dynamic homeostatic coastal ecosystem. They are also termed as “coastal woodlands" or “tidal forest” mangroves composed of salt tolerant inter tidal halophytic vegetation which formed a local specific and unique community with specific ecological amplitude. . Mangroves are of significant importance due to their manifold economic and ecological benefits. Harvesting of mangroves for fuel wood , timber, tannin bark, construction materials, etc. led to indiscriminate illegal felling of the forest stand. Significant development of aquaculture practice in the past decade induced massive conversion of mangrove atea for prawn culture. Ecologically , mangroves form the buffer zone along the coast and act as “shelter belts" preventing abrasion and protecting the land from high tidal surges and cyclone storms. ‘The present status of the Ayeyarwady mangrove is alarming. Not only has there been a continuous reduction in area for agricultural purposes , thesurvived mangrove has suffered greatly by the uncontrolled and repeated felling of the more valuable trees. Degradation and loss of mangroves due to heavy exploitation will have a negative impact on the economic development and adversely affects the climatic conditions of the coastal ecosystem. (Twilley, 1988. ) Thus, an accurate and up- to-date information base on the status of mangroves continuously over time is an essential pre-requisite for conservation and sustainable management of the mangroves. The present study is undertaken to monitor the changes of mangrove forest area in Aycyarwady Delta. Lacks of regular and accurate information, database and integrated unified management plans are critical. At present, the Ayeyarwady Delta has few digital maps and poor database. The information is mainly derived from discontinuous field surveys that are stored on paper maps and notes. Therefore, there is inadequate information to establish efficient management programs for this area. ‘As mentioned previously, the mangrove natural resources and environment are being deteriorated in the Ayeyarwady delta area . Many development activities have negative impact to this area. If the situation continue, the ‘environmental problems in Ayeyarwady delta will become more severe. Such harmful activities require the sufficient planning and management to avoid conflicts and maintain the environmental quality , scenery and scientific value. However, this is not possible without ecological knowledge and adequate techniques that are available for mangrove management. Application of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System( GIS ) techniques are useful tools to support a multi-sector resource planning and sustainable management for the Ayeyarwady delta area,1.3 Objectives The aim of this study is to generate useful data for formulation of sustainable mangrove management in the Ayeyarwady Delta area. This study has the following objectives: + To identify the stand density classes of mangrove forests + To monitor the changes of mangrove forest cover + To identify the deforestation risk area for the prediction of future trends of deforestation in the Ayeyarwady Delta 1.4 Description of the Study Area 1.4.1 Location of the study area Myanmar is one of the countries of Asia-Pacific region where ‘mangrove is predominant and it has 4% of the total mangrove area of the world ‘UNDP/FAO ( MYA/90/003 ) .The mangrove forests are located in Ayeyarwady delta and along coastal area of Rakhine and Tenintharyi line. Ayeyarwady delta is located in the southern part of Myanmar , between 15° - 18° latitudes north and 94° and 96° longitudes east. It is surrounded by Myanmar sea and bay of Bangal in the south and south-west ( Fig.1.1 ). The total area of Ayeyarwady Division is approximately 155,795 km”. The mangrove of the Ayeyarwady delta is the largest having 177,327 ha, compared to other areas of Rakhine ( 64,777 ha ) and Taninthary ( 140,485 ha ) . Mangrove forests are mainly found in both Bogalay and Laputta townships, which are situated in the southern part of the Ayeyarwady delta, The Ayeyarwady mangroves are under management of Myaungmya District of the Ayeyarwady Division .LOCATION MAP OF MYANMAR Figure. I. 1 The location of the study area 1.4.2 Topography ‘Most of the areas in Ayeyarwady delta are quite flat with alluvial origin, except small sand ridges located in certain atea. The main river , Ayeyarwady flows from North to South with numerous tributaries in delta. A huge amount of sediment is carried from the upper catchment area and deposited in Ayeyarwady delta. With the extensive network of rivers and channels , some of these sediments are deposited on the forest floor of the Ayeyarwady and the remaining are carried into Myanmar Sea. Almost all the areas are submerged at spring tide during the rain. 1.4.3 Biophysical Conditions Generally , the soil in Ayeyarwady delta is clay and clay loam , and Tittle sandy ridges. Itis very plastic and sticky. The soil with slight acidity (pH 7.0 - 6.0 ) was observed in Ayeyarwady delta where Phoenix paludosa grow densely.The climate condition of Ayeyarwady delta is tropical monsoon climate with high temperature and abundant rainfall. Ayeyarwady delta received heavy rainfall primarily because of the alignment of the mountain ranges. Annual rainfall in the study area is 3000 to 3500 mm. There are three well defined seasons, such as rainy season , cold season and hot season. The rainy season starts about the middle of May and ends in October. The cold season is from November to January. The hot season is from Febuary to the middle of May. The average temperature for the study area is 21°C to 32°C in the rainy season , 15°C to 30°C in the cold season and 30°C to 38°C in the hot season. Humidity is normally high in the study area. ( Sit Bo, 1992) ‘The mangrove forests of Ayeyarwady Delta were rich in species composition three decades ago but et recent day itis found that mangroves species distributed in Ayeyarwady are only twenty nine species ( Kogo , 1992 ). The most dominant species is Heritiera fomes and Excoecaria agatlocha .The other common species are Avicennia officinalis , Sonneratia caseolaris , Bruguiera gymmorhiza and Ceriops decandra. ‘The mangrove species found in Ayeyarwady delta are about twenty nine species ( Kogo, 1992)). (Table. 1.1) According to the 1991 inventory report, Excoecaria agallocha is the most abundant constituting 53% of tree number from the composition of mangrove forest in Laputta township, Heritiera fomes is the second most abundant (19.4%) and Avicennia officinalis (8.8%) is the third, The average stand and stock per hectare are 46 trees and 2.4 m? respectively. The existing growing stock consists of small trees , more than 85% of the total growing stock belong to the smallest size class of 5-9 om dbh ( Kyaw Tint and Shwe Kyaw , 1992 ), Based on field observations made by plantation staff , Heritiera fomes and Excoecaria agallocha constitute 56% and 21% of total mangroves, in degraded forests in Byone Mwe Island in Bogalay township respectively ( Maung Maung Than , 1999 ).1.4.6 Human Pressure ‘The highest demand of forest product are fuelwood and charcoal mainly for local consumption of Ayeyarwady population (1435 people / sq miles) ( Myint ‘Swe, 1995 ) and for wood supply to Yangon city . Housing and construction materials. such as poles , small saw logs and Nipa palm are also highly demand. Over-exploitation of the forests to meet the growing demands as mentioned above is the main cause of forest degradation Om the other hand, the forests are also being converted annually for agricultural uses. Forest encroachment may be temporaty ( Shifting cultivation or ‘Taungya ) resulting to deforestation as well as if the encroachment is permanent , the forests are also converted into agricultural land, These two factors have been. continuously occurring in the forests of the study area for about the past two decades. 1.4.7 Mangroves species found in Ayeyarwady “The mangrove species distributed in Ayeyarwady Delta is shown in Table Li. Table I 1, Mangrove species distributed in Ayeyarwady Delta ‘No | Botanical Name Family Name [Type _ | Salinity | Local Name of | of water plant Y | Acanthus dicifotius ‘Acanthaceae |S FB | Kaya 2 | Acrostichum aureum | Preridiaceae | F FB | Hngetgyidaung 3 | Aegiceras comniculatum | Myrsinaceae | T FBS | Kaya 4 | Aegialitis rotundifolia —_| Plumbaginacea |S B/S | Pinlesha 5 | Avicennia alba e T B ‘Thame Kyettet 6 | Avicennia marina Avicenniaceae |T B/S | Thame Phyu 1 | Avicennia officinalis Avicenniaceae |'T B/S | Thame 8 — | Barringtonia acutangula | Avicenniaceae |T F Kyi 9 | Bruguiera gymnorrhiza | Myrtaceae T B/S | Bywusta-lone(Syn B.conjugata ) Rhizophoraceae 10 | Bruguiera parviflora T BS | Byuckyettet 11 | Bruguiera sexangula Rhizophoraceae | T B 12 | Ceriops decandra Rhizophoraceae | T B Madama 13, | Ctagal Rhizophoraceae | T B/S | Madama myaw 14 | Cynometra ramiflora _| Rhizophoraceae | T FB | Myinka 15 | Derris seandens Leguminisae |C FB | Migyaungnwe 16 | Excoecaria agallocha | Papitionaceae | T F/B | Thayaw 17 | Heritiera fomes Euphorbiaceae |T FB | Kanazo 18 | Hibiscus tiliaceus Sterculiaceae |S FB | Thinban 19 | Kandelia candel Malvaceae T B Baindaungshe 20 | Nipa fruticans Rhizophoraceae | S we | Dani 21 | Phoenix paludosa Palmae s F/B | Thinbaung 22 | Pluchea indica Palmae s Fe | Kayu 23 | Rhizophora apieulata | Compositae | T B ByuchedaukAp 24 | R mucronata Rhizophoraceae | T BS lo 25 | Sonneratia apetala Rhizophoraceae | T BS | ByuchedaukA. 26 | S caseolaris Sonneratiaceae |'T FS m (Syn.S.acida) Sonneratiaceae Kanbala 27 | S. griffthit T B Lamu 28 | Xylocarpus granatum | Sonneratiaceae | T B Syn.Carapa moluccensis | Meliaceae Laba 29 | Xmoluccensis T B Kyana (Syn.carapa obovata ) Meliaceae Pinle on ‘Sources: Report on mangrove reforestation in Ayeyarwady Delta , 1995. Type of plant :C= Creeper orClimber F=Fem = S=Shub T=Tree Salinity level: B= Brakish water F= Freshwater S = Salt waterIL, LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1, Mangrove Vegetation 2.1.1 Definitions and Functions Mangrove forest is a special type of forest found on coastlines or river mouths, which are influenced by tides. Commonly mangroves grow on bay with a calm sea current and a gentle slope ( Anwar and Subiandono, 1997 ). Mangrove ecosystem, both structure and function, depend heavily on various important ‘environmental factors such as climate, tides, waves and current, salinity, dissolved ‘oxygen soil and nutrients( Aksomkoae,1995). Some important functions of mangroves in coastal areas are: (1) protection area from abrasion by sea wave ot wind; (2) producer of organic matter in order to provide food for fish, crab , shrimp ; and (3) protection area for young fauna such as birds , bats (Notohadipoero and Siradz, 1978 ). Mangrove forest provides important contribution to aquatic life through lower chain of food web and also provides a place for nursery, feeding and spawning for certain fish and shrimp (Maxtosubroto, 1978) ‘Anwar and Subiandono ( 1997 ) divided the mangrove functions in three categories, i.e. physical function, biological fmction and economical function. ‘The physical function includes 1) to protect coastal line; 2) to protect coastal and river slope from abrasion and tight wind; 3) to protect new land ; 4) to protect fresh water from intrusion of sea water and 5) to extract rubbish to provide ‘oxygen and to absorb carbon dioxide. The biological fimetion includes 1) as source of nutrients for fauna who live inside; 2) as place to breeding for fish, shrimp , prawn , bird, etc; 3) as source of biomass and genetics; and 4) as natural habitat of many biota. The economical function includes 1) as source of wood , either for fuelwood or furniture; 2) as source of industry materials for pulp , paper textile, medicine, alcohol , cosmetic; 3) as producer of breeding of fish , shrimp 1 prawn ete; 4) as nature habitat for many biota. Ecologically, mangroves communities play essential roles in littoral areas. ‘A prominent role is the production of leaf litter, which is exported to the tidal flat 10areas and the near-shore coastal environment. Through @ process of microbial breakdown and enrichment, the detrital particles become a nutritious food resource for a variety of marine animals. The organic exported from the ‘mangrove habitat is utilized in one form or another by inhabitants of estuaries, ‘near-coast water , sea grass meadow and coral reefs. Many of commercial shrimps and many fish species are supported by this food source. ‘The ecological functions of the mangroves are closely associated with the economic function. All kind of sea creatures live in this area or very much dependent on the existence of the mangrove forest. Mangrove forests have been widely and variously used by people who live in ot close to them and who traditionally have made a living ftom the mangrove ecosystem for thousands of years ( Aksomkoae, 1995 ). In Myanmar , the people have used mangrove trees for timber , cooking , charcoal making , grazing and aquaculture, Moreover, in some countries, mangroves are used 2s a wildlife sanctuary , protecting coastline and. riverbanks against tidal bores and cyclones and also for park and study area ( Aksomkoae , 1995 ). 2.1.2 Mangrove Formation ‘The global distribution of mangrove depends on a number of factors besides the protected character of the coastline , adaptation of saline soil and water , and the low profile of the land or shallow water depth( Kjerfve, 1990). ‘The mangroves of the Ayeyarwady Delta are part of the Indo-Pacific or eastern Mangroves and thus share a large number of species with this phytogeography. The Ayeyarwady Mangroves also used to be known as one of the most important areas for Heritiera forests in the world (Lahiri, and Aung , 1995 ). Distribution of mangrove always comespond with 1) salinity, 2) frequency and duration of sea water inundation and 3) mud content in soil ( Anwar and Subiandono,, 1997 ). For example, the Sonneratia species grows in the outermost area and directly contact the sea water with highest salinity. After that the Rhizophora species occupies in the second layer with lower salinity. The different conditions enable different species of mangrove to grow has performed zonation n‘of the mangrove species. Tidal duration has a great influence on salinity fluctuation in the mangrove areas and on species distribution, vegetative structure ‘and mangrove ecosystem function ( Viboth and Ashwell. 1995 ). The flora of Ayeyarwady Delta is characterized by the abundance of Heritiera fomes, Excoecaria agaltocha, Cynometra ramiflora, Ceriops decandra, Bruguiera gymnorrhiza and Avicennia officinalis. The species distributing in Ayeyarwady delta are about pwenty nine species ( See table I.1) . These species serve as a host for 69 species of fishes, 13 species of prawns, 4 spocics of crabs and 9 species of shellfishes. { Kogo, 1992). 2.2 Remote Sensing ‘The technical term "remote sensing" was first used in the United States in the 1960's, encompassed photogrammetry, photo-interpretation, photo-geology ete. Since Landsat-1, the first earth observation satellite was launched in 1972, remote sensing has become widely used. ( Murai,S , 1993 ) Remote Sensing is the science and art of obtaining information about an object, area or phenomenon through the analysis of data acquired by a device that is not in contact with the ‘objects, area or phenomenon under investigation ( Lillesand , T.M and Kiefer, R.W. 1994). The mechanism of Remote Sensing is that all objects and earth emit and reflect their own electromagnetic energy. Sensors on platform receive energy and record them as data ( digital and analog forms ) which is then analyzed and given to users. There are many kinds of remotely sensed data such as aerial photographs, optical satellite images such as LANDSAT and SPOT, radar images and non imaging data. Generally speaking, remotely sensed images have a number of features , which make them as an ideal GIS data sources: = Remote Sensing provides a regional view. ~ Remote sensing provides repetitive = Remote sensors “see “ over a broader portion of the spectrum than the human eye. = Sensors ean focus on a very specific bandwidth on an image. 12< They can also look at a number of bandwidths simultaneously. Remote sensors often record signal electronically and provide geo- referenced , digital data, = Active remote sensors operate in all seasons, at night and in bad weather. ‘Number of satellite missions dedicated to Remote Sensing ( or Earth Observation ( BO ) ) has increased significantly over the past decade and will further increase over the coming, decade and beyond. Data from these missions offer the potential for contributing a useful tool for monitoring and planning of natural resources. The potential for social and economic benefits offered by satellite EO arises from its unique capabilities. These include the ability to provide near real time monitoring of extensive areas of the Earth's surface at relatively Tow cost , as well as the capat features of interest to provide detailed, localized information. The advantages offered by satellite remotely sensed image data were pointed out by Chavez and ‘Mackinnon,(1994 ) includes the combination of : = Synoptic / regional view ~ Cost effective = High spatiel resolution compared to ground sampling, and lity to focus on particular land and sea surface - Multi-temporal coverage 2.2.1 Landsat Thematic Mapper Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM ) is an improvement generation from the previous Landsat Multi Spectral scanner (MSS) in terms of spectral resolution, data acquisition and radiometric resolution. The improvement in resolution from MSS"s ground resolution cell of 79 x 79 m to the TM’s ground resolution cel! of 30 x 30 m ( exception of the thermal , which has 120 x 120m ) and in data acquisition from seven bands instead of four bands and in radiometric from a quantitative digital signal conversion of 64 digital number ( 6 bits ) to 256 digital umber ( 8 bits ) ( Lillesand and Kiefer, 1994 ).; Therefore , Landsat TM gives the information more detail than previous generation. The principle application for cach bands is given in table II .1. 1B‘Table II . 1. Principle Application for Each Bs f Landsat TM. ‘Band | Wavelength (am) Nominal Spectral Location Principle Application 1 0.45-0.52 Blue Designed for water body penetration, useful for coastal water mapping, soil/ vegetation discrimination , forest type mapping and cultural feature identification. 2 0.52-0.60 Designed to measure green reflectance peak of vegetation, vegetation discrimination and vigor assessment. Also useful for cultural feature identification. 3 0.63-0.69 Designed to sense a chlorophyll absorption region help in plant species differentiation . Also useful for cultural feature identification. 4 0.76-0.90 ‘Near Infrared Useful for determining vegetation types, vigor and biomass content , for delineating water bodies and soil moisture discrimination, 5 155-1.75 Mid-Infrared Indicative of vegetation moisture content and soil moisture . Also useful for differentiation of snow from cloud. 6 10.4-12.5 ‘Thermal Infrared. ‘Useful in vegetation stress analysis , soil moisture discrimination and ‘thermal mapping application. 7 2.08-2.35 Mid-Infrared “Useful for discrimination of mineral and rock types. Also sensitive to vegetation moisture content. ‘Source: Lillesand and Kiefer , 1994 142.2.2 Image Interpretation Image interpretation is the extraction of qualitative and quantitative information in the form of a map, shape, location, structure , function, quality, condition and relationship between objects by using human knowledge or experience. ( Murai,S.et al,1992 ). Information extraction from remotely sensed data can be categorized into five types as given in table II .2. ‘Table II 2. General Types of Image Information Extraction No | Types Definition Examples T | Classification Categorization of | Land cover and image data using Vegetation types spectral , spatial and temporal information. 2 _| Change detection Extraction of change | Land cover between multi-date | change images 3” | Extraction of physical Measurement of Temperature, quantity temperature, atmospheric atmospheric ‘component, constituents and water pollution ‘extracted from spectral or stereo information. 4 | Extraction of indices ‘Computation ofa | Vegetation index newly defined index | ,Turbidity index 3 __| Identification of specific Taentification of ‘forest fire or features disaster flood, oil spills, sedimentation and erosion, ‘Source : Murai.S, 1992 152.2.3 Visual interpretation Visual interpretation usually conducted by using brain and eyes of human being. It is developed from carly stage of Remote Sensing era. Visual interpretation has some advantages such as combining image information and knowledge or experience to extract complicated information of the real feature. However, this method also has disadvantage such as time- consuming, very difficult to apply for large areas in @ short time, each interpreter has their own classified results, Following the level of expertise of the photo- analysis, the ability to extract information can be high or not, The visual interpretation may be divided into three steps of process( Delsol, J.P,1997 ). -Image reading is an clemental form of image interpretation. It corresponds t0 simple identification of ground objects using such elements as shape , size, pattern, tone, color , texture, shadow and other associated relationships. Image reading is usually implemented with interpretation key with respect to each specific object. -Image measurement is the extraction of physical quantities such as length , location, height , density , temperature , and so on, by using reference data or calibration data deductively or inductively. -Image analysis is the understanding of relationships between interpretation {information and actual status or phenomenon and to evaluate the situation. The extraction information will be finally represented in map form called {interpretation maps or thematic maps. Generally the accuracy of the visual image interpretation is not adequate without field surveys. The ground investigations are necessary , first when interpretation keys are established and then when the preliminary map is checked. 162.2.4, Digital image processing Remotely sensed data are usually digital image formats. Therefore, data processing in Remote Sensing is dominantly weated as digital processing. Digital image processing is extremely broad subject and it often involves procedures which can be mathematically complex. The central idea behind digital image processing is quite simple. The digital image is fed into a computer one pixel at a time. The computer is programmed to insert these data into an ‘equation, or seties of equations, and then store the results of the computations for cach pixel, These results form a new digital image that may be displayed or recorded in pictorial format or may itself be further manipulated by addition programs ( Lillesand,T.M and Kiefer, R.W. 1994 ), The process of manual image interpretation and digital image interpretation are similar in many ways. The goals, of analysis are often the same, though the routes may vary. However, virtually all these procedures may be categorized into following five broad types. Image rectification and restoration: These operations aim to correct distorted ‘or degraded image data to create a more faithful representation of the original scene. This typically involves the initial processing raw image data to correct for geometric distortion, to calibrate the data radiometrically, and to eliminate noise present in the data, Image rectification and restoration procedures are often, termed preprocessing operations because they normally precede further manipulation and analysis of the image data to extract specific information. -Image enbancement: This procedure is applied to image data in order to more effectively display or record the data for subsequent visual interpretation. Normally, image enhancement involves techniques for increasing the visual distinctions between features in a scene. The objective is to create “new” images from the original image data in order to increase the amount of information that can be visually interpreted from the data. W-Image classification: ‘The objectives of these operations is to replace visual ‘image analysis with quantitative techniques which automatically identify features. This involves the analysis of multi-spectral image and application of the statistically based decision rules to determine land cover identity of each pixel on image. When these decision rules are based solely on the spectral radiance observed ot digital number in the data, the classification process called ‘as spectral recognition. In contrary, the decision rules may be based on the geometric shapes, sizes and pattems recognized on image data, These procedures fall into. domain of spatial recognition. In most case, the intent of the classification process is to categorize all pixels in a digital image into one of several land cover classes , or “theme”. ‘These categorized data may then be used to produce thematic maps of land cover present on image, and /or produce summary statistics of the area covered by each land cover type. ‘The spectral recognition procedure is emphasized because the current state of the art of this procedure is more advanced than the spatial pattern recognition approaches. -Data merging and GIS integration: These procedures are used to combine image data fora given geographic area with other geographically referenced data sets for the same area, These data might simply consist of image data generated on the other dates by the same sensor or by the other Remote Sensing. systems. Frequently, the intent of data_merging is to combine remotely sensed data with other sources of information in the context of GIS. -Biophysical modeling: The objective of biophysical modeling is to relate quantitatively the digital data recorded by a Remote Sensing system to biophysical features and phenomena measured on the ground. For example, remotely sensed data might be used to estimate various parameters such as crop yield, pollution concentration, or water depth. Likewise, remotely sensed data are often used on concert with GIS techniques to facilitate environmental modeling. 182.3. Geographic Information System 2.3.1 Geographic Information System ‘A GIS describes “ an organized collection of computer hardware , software , geographic data and personal designed of efficiently capture, store . update , manipulate, analyse and display all forms of geographically referenced information” ( Rhind , 1991 ). ‘The geographical information system (GIS ) is actually very complex and varied according to the needs and objectives of the users. GIS for natural resources management basically consist of various discipline i.e. computer science , mathematics, biometrics, modeling , eco-physiology of plants , plants dynamics, plants taxonomy, soil science , climate , ecology, geomorphology , biogeography , remote sensing , etc. ( Rosalina Wastin, U., 1998) ‘The power of GIS has been widely recognized in all fields of normal life that used geographical information, in resources management , land use planning , ‘teansportation, marketing and many other applications. The large number of natural resources management and planning are now using GIS , and the handling of spatial data of all types by computer is widespread ( Graem, 1994 ). Professionals in every field are increasingly aware of the advantages of thinking and working geographically. ‘The spatial data can be assessed , transformed and manipulated interactively in GIS. GIS are used to perform Geographic Queries and Analysis , improve organizational integration, and make better decisions and making maps. GIS technology integrates common database operations such as query and statistical analysis with the unique visualization and geographic analysis benefits offered by maps. These abilities distinguish GIS from other information systems such as desktop mapping , computer aided design ( CAD ) and AM/FM. ( ESRI, 1997 ). Map making and geographic analysis are not new but a GIS performs these tasks better and faster than do the old manual methods. Arronoff ,S. (1994) has pointed out the power of the system is most apparent when the quality of data involved is too large to be handled manually. 192.3.2 Main Components of A Geographic Information System ‘A working GIS integrates five key components: hardware , software , data, people and methods. Hardware: Hardware is the computer on which a GIS operates. Software: GIS software provides the functions and tools needed to store , analyse and display geographic information, Key software components are tools for the input and manipulation of geographic information. A database management system (DBMS ) tool that supports geographic query , analysis and visualization ‘a graphical user interface ( GUI ) for easy access to tools. Data: The most important component of a GIS is the data. Geographic data ( spatial data ) and related tabular data ( attributes ) can be collected from primary data sources such as direct measurements , sampling procedures : and from existing data sources. such as existing maps, tables or other databases ( secondary source ). Broadly speaking, data for geographic information analysis , regardless of whether they are spatial or attribute in nature , can be categorized into two kinds, namely environmental data and socioeconomic data ( Kanew. N , 1997). Socio-economic data are data about human , human activities and the space and/or structured used to conduct human activities, Environmental and natural resources data describe about environment and natural resources based entities, It contains thematic data such as soil maps , land use maps , forest maps and geology: topographic data such as elevation , road network, river network , erosion maps, political and administrative boundaries and Remote Sensing data, People: GIS technology is of limited value without the people who manage the system and development plans for applying it to real world problems. GIS users range from technical specialists who design and maintain the system to those who use it to help them perform their everyday work. 202.3.3 Data Analysis and Modeling with GIS Present day GIS packages provide a wide range of analysis capabil that are able to operate on raster data and vector topology spatial datasets , on non ial and spatial data in a ies spatial attributes of the spatial data and on non spat combined manner. GIS essentially performs the following processes or tasks: + Input ~ Manipulation - Management = Query and Analysis + Visuatization Spatial analysis is used to produce additional geographic information using existing information or to enhance the spatial structure of relationship between ‘geographic information. Many techniques have been proposed, as follows. (1) Overlay technique Various geographic data comprised of multiple layers are overlaid with logical operations including logical addition or logical multiplication. For example, a hazard risk area of soil erosion can be estimated by overlaying deforested and slope gradient maps in a mountainous area. (2) Buffering technique Buffering is to find an area within a certain distance from a given point or a line. (3) Volonoi tessellation ‘An area may be divided in a group of "influential areas termed Volonoi tessellation, that can be formed by bisectors between spatially distributed points..(Murai, $.1993 ) 212.3.4. Use of Remote Sensing Data in GIS Remote sensing data after geometric correction, can be overlaid on other geographic data in a raster form. In GIS, there are two benefits of remote sensing data utilization; as classified data and as image data. Remote sensing data will be classified or analyzed with other geographic data to obtain a higher accuracy of classification. If ground height and slope gradient are given as map data, rice fields, for example , can be checked and located only in flat and low land areas. Forest areas and mangrove arca are also classified with Jess errors if map data are combined with remote sensing dataIll. METHODOLOGY 3,L.Period and Location This study has been conducted from January until July 2001. Image processing and data analysis were done at the Remote Sensing and Mapping Section , Computer Laboratory of Forest Department , Myanmar. ‘The location of the study area is Ayeyerwady Delt , Myanmar. Geographically, Ayeyarwady Delta is located between 15° and 18° latitudes north and 94° and 96° longitudes east. It is surrounded by Myammar sea and the bay of Bangal in the south and south-west, The selected ares includes Bogalay township consists of three reserved forests in Ayeyarwady Delta of Myanmar. The Ayeyarwady Delta is considered as the most appropriate area due to the following reasons; a) The biggest mangrove forests can be found in this area. It is also the largest of three mangrove forests of Myanmar. b) There are many conflicts among. stakeholders and resources planners. ©) Mangrove forests are being degraded and denuded with an alarming rate in this study area as compared to outer areas in Myanmar. 4) The author had worked on mangrove forest management and conservation project in this arca and therefore it was considered easy to collect the required information, ‘This research has four main of processes, namely: (1 ) data collection , (2) digital image classification , ( 3 ) change detection of mangroves , ( 4 ) producing the deforestation risk map using GIS analysis. 3.2, Data Collection ‘The study required three main kinds of data: Remote Sensing data , GIS data and Field survey data, 233.2.1 Remote Sensing Data Remote sensing data was used to classify and produce thematic map layers that was a main source for GIS analysis of the study. The remotely sensed data used were Landsat TM images. Landsat ‘Thematic Mapper acquired on 10 February 1995 and March 2000 ‘were obtained from the Forest Department , Ministry of Forestry , Myanmar, belong to the paths, rows ( 133, 49 )which were used to establish the land use maps. ‘Topographic Maps were obtained from Survey Department , Ministry of Forestry, Myanmar, ER Mapper software , ENVI 3.2 software , Global Positioning System ( GPS ) , and Clinometer were available from the Forest Department and used for the study. ‘The acquired date of images was very important because of dynamic characteristics of delta environment as well as natural impacts such as tidal regime, crop season, Fortunately, both of these remote sensing data were taken on nearly the same season . 3.2.2 GIS Data GIS data were collected from different sources with different formats. Jn this study, some biophysical data and environmental data such as population density , land-use maps , river and roads networks are very important for data input and GIS analysis. Biophysical factors considered as driving forces in land conversion in the study include road and river networks. The population data was collected from the Myanmar Immigration Department while river and roads networks were collected by di from the topographic maps. Besides, topographical maps at scale of 1:63360 (i inch:1 miie) was an important source. 3.2.3 Field Survey Data An intensive field trip of nearly one month was conducted in March 2001 after preclassifying remotely sensed data with the aim, to collect data on study area for the following aspects: 24~ Situation of land covers and land-uses as well as their appearance in the images. = Agricultural, aquacultural cultivation types and crop calendar - Enumeration of representative samples of the study area consisting of number of sample plots. In each sample plot, the basal area was measured to identify the forest density. In addition, information on agricultural crops, cropping pattems, management regimes, dominant vegetation types, topography and accessibility ‘were collected. Global Positioning System (GPS ) was used for this procedure. 3.3.Equipment and Software The study required some GIS software and digital image processing software with correspondent hardware, 3.3.1 Hardware = Personal Computer for digital image processing and GIS analysis = AO size Calcom digitizing table for inputting GIS data = TechSet GT 550 Color printer for map producing = Black and white printer for printing report. 3.2.2 Software i)Digital Image Processing software -ER Mapper 5.5, ENVI. 3.2 4i.GIS software -PC ARCIINFO (a product of Environment Research System Inc, USA ) version 3.4.1 and Arc View 3.1 were used as main GIS software due to its powerful overlay and analysis functions, Besides, ILWIS software was used for digitizing maps. 3.3.3 Ground Truth Equipment ~ Compass - Camera 25,- GPS machine Magellan GX5000 = Santo Clinometer for measuring the crown height = Measuring tape 3.4, Image Processing ‘Digital image processing was applied for two main purposes: To enhance image quality and extract more information about delta mangroves environment through image enhancement functions. “To classify images as draft land cover/land-use maps which will be combined with other data sources. 26Topographic ‘mao Landsat TM Data (1995 , 2000) —L L____»| select Methad of resampling, Geometric Correction -Define GPs and interpolation _Y Image Enhancement -Contrast stretching -Ground Check “Imervicw ~ GPS topographic Select the training area in the best band combination y ‘Supervised Classification (Maximum Likelihood ) Verification of classified images Land vse and land cover map for ( 1995 and 2000 ) Figure.III 1 Flow Chart of Digital image Processing a3.4.1 Geometric Correction Geometric correction was done by identifying ground control points (GCPs) on the original image and on the reference map (topographic map). The accuracy of GCPs represented by computation of the root mean square error (RMS-error), Generally, the high accuracy of GCPs if the RMS error is less than cone, with a good distribution of the GCPs on images. “The basic operations in geometric rectification: (1) Collect GOP Ideally x’ would equal to xorg and y’ would equal to yori but some distortion usually happened in GCPs collection. A simple way to measure such distortion is by computing the RMS error for each control point using the equation RMSenoe= VG HorIg 2+ = pore where : ecg and Yarg= the original row and column coordinates of the GCP in the image x! and y’ = the computed or estimated coordinate in the original image RMS threshold is 0.5 pixel or RMSeror < 0.5, and less then 0.5 pixel is expected. (2) Transformation Utilization of equation solution was applied to transform the entire image. Jn this study , Polynomial (Control Point) is used as type of rectification. (3) Resampling Resampling is used to determine the pixel values to fill into the output matrix from the original matrix (Lillesand Kiefer, 1994). Resampling technique chosen is nearest neighbor. The value for a pixel in the output image could be assigned simply on the basis of the value of closest pixel in the transformed image. 283.4.2 Image Enhancement Image enhancement was used to improve the visual interpretability of the image by increasing the apparent distinctive between features on scene, such as main roads and other features. It is very useful to select accurately ground control points in geometric correction step. Computer enhancement aims to visually amplify the slight differences on the radiometric or spectral to make them readily observable. Therefore, it improves the accuracy of visually classified Landsat image. ‘A color composite is generated with the use of three primary colors: red , green and blue. We are very easy to identify main ground objects in false color composite image, for example, vegetation is in red and water is in dark blue or black. 3.4.3 Image Classification In order to determine a decision rule for classification , it is necessary to know the spectral characteristics of features with respect to the population of each class. Selection of training area ( TA ) is very important in digital image processing, especially in supervised classification because the quality of classified image would be determined by selection of training areas for each land use/ land cover types. The information of the land use’ land cover was obtained from the ground survey , the topographic maps and interview with people who live around the sample locations. The ROIs selection should be selected on the homogeneous area ( homogeneous color in images }, so that they have specific values in ‘minimum, maximum, mean and standard deviation , however , this is mot an easy way. The spectral characteristics or features for each class was obtained from training areas that have already been done in the previous step. Method of ‘classification used is maximum likelihood by combination of three bands (123), four bands (1234), five bands( 12345), six bands (123456) and all bands (1234567) . The maximum likelihood classifier is one of the most popular 29methods of classification in remote sensing, in which 2 pixel with the maximum likelihood is classified into the corresponding class. The likelihood Lk is defined 1 the posterior probability of a pixel belonging to class k. ‘Lie= P(K/X) = P(K)*POX/K) /EPG)* POW) where P(k) : prior probability of class k POWk) : conditional probability to observe X from class k, or probability density function Usually P(K) are assumed to be equal fo each other and 2P(i)*P(X/i) is also common to all classes. Therefore Lk depends on P(X/k) or the probability density function. For mathematical reasons, a multivariate normal distribution is applied as the probability density function. in the case of normal distributions, the likelihood can bbe expressed as follows. oP NT where n: number of bands X: image data of n bands A(X) : likelihood of X belonging to class k tk: mean vector of class k 3k : variance-covariance matrix of class k fel: deemmizentot 3 In the case where the variance-covariance matrix is symmetric, the likelihood is the seme as the Euclidian distance, while in case where the determinants are equal each other, the likelihood becomes the same as the Mahalanobis distances (Mun, 8., 1993 ). The accuracy of classified images were calculated by computer ( kappa coefficient ). The kappa coefficient equation is expressed below: a.Create & matrix comparing the classified image (row) with the region of interest (column)Calculate q n (row) * n (col) N c. Calculate Kappa Coefficient ( Kappa =1 or 100%, is the highest accuracy) (4-4) Kappa= SS (N-a) where 4 + the number of cases ¢ n{row) : the total value of row for each class. (column) : the total value of column for each class N : the total value of rows or columns, which should be equal. a 2 the diagonal total of cells. 3.5. Accuracy Evaluation Evaluation for the classification result was performed by creating confusion matrix or error matrix. Accuracy was evaluated by examining producer's accuracy, user's accuracy, global accuracy, and kappa accuracy. Kappa accuracy is the most useful value/index because it takes into account all matrix elements. Kappa accuracy is formulated as follows: 31N Situ Sees - G Kappa (K) = X 100% Nee Users accuracy and producer accuracy are used to predict Kappa accuracy, the formula is shown as follows: Xu Producer accuracy= = “Ky User accuracy = Xu a Dx Global accuracy = x 100% N Where: N= total pixels k = number of classes Xe Xx = number of columns number of rows To know that accuracy among band combination is significantly different, Z test can be done as formulated below: Z = (Ki—Ki)/ Gu? +547) with variance : B= LIN 6; (1 - O1C1- On) +2 (1 ~ 81)2 0182 - 3) / (1-3)? + 1-81 (Oa 46°) / (1- 62)" Where: @:= XUN a= YX XWin? O5= F Xie. Xin? 32= F KiKi XP Note: = number of rows/column of matrix N= number of pixels of training area Xi = total number of pixels of row i column i Xie number of pixels of row i Xe number of pixels of column I In degree of confidence 95%, if Z value is greater than 1.96 it would show that the accuracy is significantly different (Jaya, 1993). 3.6, Ground Survey This was defined as the observation, measurement and collection of information about the actual condition on the ground in order to determine the relationship between remote sensing and object to be observed. Generally ground truth should be collected at the same as data acquisition or at least within the period that environmental condition does not change. However, it is difficult to do that , therefore, the ground truth must be combined with interviews to get more ie information. Due to the limited funds and time , it was not possible to have large number of samples to be collected and analyzed. The GPS ( Global Position System ) was used during ground truth to get exact location of the study site. Detailed inventory was carried out to determine the forest density. A forest inventory was carried out using random sampling design with 0.1% intensity. Temporary sample plots were located on a square grid. A total of 15 sample units measured in the study area. Each plot covers 20m x 50m . Based con the accessibility of rivers and roads , some plots were changed to another place for the inventory. Approximately the sample plots were randomly located in the study area. The inventory design is illustrated in appendix. In the sample plots, all trees with dbh larger than 3 inches were measured and their species identification. Thus we could calculate the dominant species in the sample plot. 33Allso to. assess regeneration , 5m x Sm square small units were established at the center of the sample plot. Seedlings were counted in this small units. (See in Appendix .9 ) ‘The typical density found in a closed forests in Myanmar is about 20-30 sq. m/ha, ( Edah.$ , 1995 )-This indicates the high density of a good forest. ‘However, in a forest disturbed by biotic factors and natural factors such as fire and pest/disease, the common density is between 10 -20 sq. m/ha. which is commonly classified as moderate density. The degraded forests and the forests which have ‘been seriously affected by land use changes such as agricultural expansion and shifting cultivation and infra-structural development are having the density of below 10 sq. mv/ba, The above-mentioned rational are leading to the classification of the study area based on tue density as follows: (@ Dense > 20 sq. m/ha basal area (b) Moderate 10 ~ 20 sq. m/ha basal area (© Sparse <10 sq. m/ha basal area Characteristics of dense mangrove based on the field observation are 1) the closed mangrove canopies; 2) 1-2 meters distance between one mangrove tree and other tree for Avicennia in term of canopy. 3) the leaves are in general green. Whilst moderate mangrove was characterized by 1)the closed canopies of the ‘mangroves; 2) 3-4 meters distance between one mangrove tree and other tree for Avicennia , but closer ( 0,5-1.5 meters) for Rhizophora 3) the leaves were light green. Sparse mangrove was characterized by 1) sparse in term of leaves or there were the dried mangrove, so that the canopies did not closed each other.2) various in distance (4-5 meters) for Phonex paludosa: 3) the leaves yellowish green. 3.7. GIS analysis for change detection and the deforestation risk mapping All. classified results of land-use! land cover were converted into vector format for further GIS analysis using ENVI3.2 software. Other necessary roads and rivers networks were digitized from the topographic map of scale 1:63360, ‘The mangroves changes were obtained by overlaying between the final classified images from different dates. This step produced the distribution maps and theareas of the mangrove changes, Flow chart of mangrove change detection is described in ( Figure.IIL2 ). In the effort of studying the dynamics of land use and land cover change, modeling is one tool that can be used. Model of land cover change can be developed through observation at landscape level to look at the processes of change from one land use type to another (Murdiyarso and Wastin, 1999). ‘To identify the deforestation risk area, the major causes of deforestation in this study area , population density map, accessibility ( proximity to roads, river networks ) were considered based on the socioeconomic interview with the villagers during the field survey. Index overlay is a type of arithmetic overlay that creates a new coverage by performing arithmetic operations. In other words, index overlaying is a simple modeling technique that involves the combination of a number of map layers according to their importance expressed with weighings , depending on the perceived importance of each variable. GIS technology and applications will definitely impact most of our resource management and decision making in a major way. Weightings of different layers were based on the field information collected during ground truthing. 35Land Use / Land Land Use / Land Cover of 1995 Cover of 2000 ¥ GIS ( Overlay ) Ground Cheek —— -Anicillary data ‘Mangroves Changes on (Gociocconomic and 1995-2000 Environmental Data ) Deforestation (Maps, Statistical Data ) Figure I1l.2. Flow Chart of GIS Analysis Procedure to map the deforestation risk area 36ug wopeNTULayap EarE YSLA MONESaaojap ayy Jo ssKyeue [woIqorEsATT JO WUD MOLT CTA 39A09 18910 38910 WON ysazog | 49" ‘core ys 2])NG UID-b uoneysaugyog | PM 224 W}p-Z Ausuag_ uoremndog segyng woyz | Avond Ayisuap uoyeindod pue saygNg UIO-y spear hq ware 467 s2yNg WHET SSHOMIN ANY aQyng wyz | wafing YMG wID-p sang Un}p-Z SPOMIN PEO. zayng uz balingIV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4.1. Preprocessing ‘The original images for the study area( Figure.IV.1 ) were free of cloud ‘and good for classification. Fortunately, both images 1995 and 2000 data were acquired at the same season. Perret) Algorithm Not Yet 2000 Figure.IV.1. The original images of the study area (a) in 1995 and (b) im 2000 ‘The faw Landsat TM images usually contain geometric distortions , hence it can not be used directly as maps and analyse directly / exactly as a mosaic. Landsat TM band 6 has spatial resolution 120 x 120 m , others 30 x 30 m, however after registration , all band images ( TM-6 and others ) have the same 38spatial resolution ( 30 x 30 m ):The quality of the geometric registration was shown by RMS (root mean square ) value which is 0.250 in average and 3.756 in total for 1995 image and 0.550 in average and 8.250 in total for 2000 image. (See in Appendix 1.) Selected reference coordinate system is Lambart Comformal Conic (LCC ) the same as the coordinate system used by topographic maps and other ‘thematic maps. The procedure of geometric correction through transformation formula, GCP , resampling and interpolation. Features which were objected to be tightened using GCPs ( ground control point) are river intersections , road intersections and specific shape. In this study, combinations of 2bands, 3bands, 4 bands and 5 bands were used to classify TM data, Combination of all bands ( 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) gives the highest kappa accuracy ( 99.942 % ) among all other combination of TM band. It might be caused by the combination of all TM bands were capable to capture inherent spectral reflectance and emittance properties of the features more complete than the others. Therefore, information about land cover in this combination will be the most accurate. For combination of 5 TM bands , 4 TM bands , 3. TM bands and 2 1M bands , combination 123456 ,234567 , 34567, 3456 and 134567 have the best providing kappa accuracy 99.4 %. However, as the image 1995 has only three ‘bands ( band 3, band 4 and band 5 ) available for this study area, to analyse the change detection , combination of 453 was used for classification of both images. 4.2 Image Classification ‘The classifier used were supervised classification with maximum likelihood method. The preliminary result the classification consist of 10 classes of which the mangroves were divided into three classes , namely mangrove 1, mangove2 and mangrove 3 which were associated with dense , moderate and sparse, respeptively. The rest of classes were paddy field, salt pan , wetland , sand dune , water and orchards. ‘The remotely sensed data were classified through the procedure mentioned in the methodology. After that, all of these draft classified results were 39transferred into topographic maps at a scale of 1:633360 and were verified by sampling fieldwork. 43 Classification Accuracy Assessment In order to evaluate quality of the classified images , kappa coefficient was used. It is measure of agreement between the classified images and referenced images or maps. In this case, the training areas were used as referenced image. Accuracy of the classified images using kappa coefficient method are given in Table (IV.1). Table. IV.1 Accuracy of Classified Images Bands Combination Accuracy (% ) Image 1995 ‘mage 2000 ‘Overall [Keppa___| Overall [ Kappa 123 99.365 [0.918 12,34, 99.923 10.99 12,3,4,5 99.927 | 0.992 123.456 99.940 [0.994 [1,2,3.4,5.6,7 99.942 [0.994 34,5 98.365 0.974 99.196 0.922 2,3,4 FCO) 99.854 [0.981 234567 99.938 0.994 23456 99.930 | 0.993 2345 99.923 | 0.997 34567 99.940 [0.994 3456 99.942 [0.994 4567 99.88 0.99 456 99.867 | 0.989 567 98.952 [0.912 124567 99.914 [0.993 12456 99.913 [0.992 1245 99.882 [0.99 124 99.897 | 0.989 134567 99.945 [0.994 13456 99.940 [0.994 1345 99.15 [0.991 134 99.907 [0.988 14567 99.914 [0.993 1456 99.918 [0.993 145 99.839 [0.986 23567 99.66 0.9652356 99.634 0.962 235 99.604 0.959 457 99.687 0.973 3457 ‘99.878 0.987 23457 99.935 0.993 357 99.039 0.904 257 99.386 0.947 157, 99.138 0.926 45 93.17 0.896 98.950 0.916 43 98.034 0.969 99.795 0973 35, 95.579. 0.931 98.47 0.853 147, 99.916 0.991 1457 99.885, 0.99 247 99.921 0.991 2457, 99.9 0.991 245 99.877 0.989 47 99.833 0.982 347 99.937 0.982 357 99.039 0.904 457 99.681 0.973, Unfortunately, there is only three band (345) avaitable in image 1995 data from the Department, Although some bands combinations showed a good result for image classification , bands combination (345) was used to detect the changes in this study . Producer and user's accuracy of each classified classes derived from calculation of training areas for both images are shown in Table ( IV.2 }. ( See in appendix.4 ). For 2000 image, sparse mangroves , moderate mangroves and dense ‘moderate mangroves have user's accuracy of 98.59 % , 90.82% and 100% respectively. Their producer's accuracy are 95.71 % , 96.58% and 97.87% respectively. These indicate that 95.71% of sparse mangroves , 96.58% of moderate mangroves , and 97.87%of dense mangroves were correctly classified and it was found that 98.59% of sparse mangroves , 90.82% of moderate ‘mangroves and 100% of dense mangroves were identified actually in the map as its class, respectively. 4‘Table. IV.2 Producer and user’s accuracy derived from kappa calculation of training areas Classes 1995 Accuracy % 2000 Accuracy % Producer User Producer User ‘Sparse 76.42 90.38 95.71 98.55 ‘Mangroves Moderate 89.83 35.20 96.58 90.82 ‘Mangroves Dense 95.03 99.50 97.87 100 Mangroves Paddy Field | 99.10 99.95 99.93 100 Orchards 100 97.67 100 98.63 Salt pan 95.12 975 98.03 100 Sand dune | 100 80.76 100 98.38 Wetland 777 TT 100 100 Water 100 100 100 100 Considering ground truth data for the result of classification of 2000 image , overall accuracy indicates that only 81.39% of all the classified classes were comectly classified. ( See the ercor matrix in Appendix.6 ). Three mangroves forest classes, i.e., dense mangroves , moderate mangroves and sparse mangroves have user’s accuracy 85.71% ; 70% ; and 84.61%, respectively. While, their producer’s acourncy are 100% ; 87.5% ; and 84.61%, respectively. These indicate that although 100% of dense mangroves , 87.5% of moderate mangroves , and 84.61%of sparse mangroves were correctly classified, but only 85.71% of dense mangroves , 70% of moderate mangroves and £4.61% of sparse mangroves were identified actually in the map as its class, respectively. Dense mangroves confuse witht moderate mangroves and some sparse mangroves from the classified image were found as paddy field. This differences might be the changes after 2000 March, 42For year 1995 image, the reference map which produced from Survey Department was used to classify and calculate the accuracy. The accuracy of the respective classes derived from calculation of ground truth and reference map ‘were shawn in below table ( IV.3 ).( See in Appendix.7 ) ‘Table.IV.3. User’s and Producer’s accuracy for classification of both 1995 and 2000 images ‘No. [Image | Band TM] Class User's | Producer's combinations accuracy j accuracy (%) (%) T [i995 “| 345 Dense mangroves | 83.33 71A2 Moderate 85.71 85.71 mangroves 84.61 84.61 ‘Sparse mangroves 2 [2000 | 345 Dense mangroves | 83.33 B35 ‘Moderate 63.63 875 mangroves 78.57 84.61 Sparse mangroves Statistics values of mangrove classes on image 2000 is shown in below table(IV.4) TableIV.4 Statistics Values of Each Classes on Image 2000 Dense Moderate ‘Sparse ‘Min | Max | Mean_| Std. [Min | Max | Mean_| Std. [Min] Max [Mean _| Std. 66 [72 [e941 [114/67 [oo [sis [os [69 [73 [70.33 | 1.05 49 [54 [3165 [106/45 [51 [4846 [176/50 [54 [51.596] 1.19 0 (25 [765 [3460 |9 [1692 [2065/9 [45 [2322 [845 231 [255 [248.71 | 5.68] 186 [234 [2125 | 14.5] 150 | 190 | 169.56 | 9.42 64/80 | 72.65 [3.95/59 [75 [6692 |476|70 [95 [783 [668 143 [145 | 143.53 [0.59 141 [143 [142.46] 0.77 | 144 [147 | 145.641 0.95 2 [28 [2419 [146/21 [25 [2346 | 133/26 [al [3203 [354 PEPEPEP EEE E 4a44 Land use / cover description Mangroves ‘These classes appeared red ( dominant ) in the original images ( bands combination 453 ) with fine and medium texture. Most of them were located at the tide area due to the need of salty water. The mangroves were distinguished to three classes based on density of the DN values , namely : dense , moderate and sparse vegetation cover. Avicennia. spp. arc dominant in a dense class and Rhizophora , Avicennia are mostly found in moderate class. In a sparse mangrove class, Phonex paludosa and shrubs , Excoecaria agallocha are dominant, These classes were based on the field observation and intensive inventory. In the ficld, there were many types of mangrove vegetation , namely Rhizophora , Avicennia , Phoenix paludosa , Bruguiera , Heriteria and etc. Especially in the protected wildlife sanctuary , Mainmahla island , targe areas of Rhizophora and Heriteria fomes with the moderate density of forest was found. ‘These areas were assumed , to be the dense mangroves before1995 and appeared ‘brownish red in the images. Paddy fields ‘These class have several colors( whitish blue to green ) in the image ( bands combination 453 ) depending on the paddy field conditions. They were three conditions , such as wet ( land preparation ) , dry ( after harvesting ) and growing rice paddy with color on image light blue , white to whitish purple respectively -In the field there were two kinds of paddy field condition , ic. , invigated and rained fed. But these classes were regrouped into one class for analysis on images satellite. Water ‘These classes appeared blue ( dominant ) in the image (bands 453 ) with fine to medium texture. They were divided into deep water , shallow water. Theshallow water was distinguish on image as. little bit light blue because of sedimentation effects, while the deep water looks dark blue. However, the same color was found for deep water and shallow water in the field. Salt pan ‘This class was mostly found near the sea. It was very strongly distinguished by its pattem as artificial form. In the field, there were salt production areas with water and some without water. Many small ponds and cemented grounds were observed, On the image, the color ranges into light blue to dark blue. They are not so difficult to recognize in the image as these area are very familiar to the author before. However , some aquaculture ponds and salt pans were difficult to differentiate. Orchard ‘Actually this class was mixed with villages which is difficult to separate from one to the other. In the field , it was found that the orchards ( coconut trees, betel tress ) were established by the villagers near their village ( See photos in appendix.15 ). The houses could not be separated from surrounding gardens. This class has light and brownish red color and sometimes similar with sparse ‘mangroves in the image. Wetland This class appeared dark green to bluish color in the image. It can confuse with salt pan because of the similar color . However , the reflectance values were not the same. In the field, all the soil samples from this class represented the clay texture, This area was demarcated to implement the fish-paddy project in 1991 by the Government. However , this project was not success because there were so ‘many problems to implement this project. , Sand dune It is very easy to classify using the indication of the new road were constructed along the sand dunes in the field. This class appeared purplish white 45, whitish purple to purple in the image with medium and coarse texture. In the field, most of these areas were covered with sandy clay. At last, nine classes were identified for this study. Finally, the classified results were converted into digital format by ENVI 3.2 software. Derived land use ‘maps were designed and ultimately generalized. The personal skill of cartography was used for creating map , especially in the of colors application. The selected colors of land use types were appropriate both in aesthetic and logical sense. All of the final land use maps were made the same way and shown in Figure (IV.2 and V3). 46Classification Map of 1995 image Va IKilometers Sparse water Dense Moderate Source : Lansat TM , 1995 wetland orchard salt pan Figure.IV.2 Classification Map of 1995 image a7Classification Map of 2000 image Qo aaIKilometers Peiseve Sparse Source : Landsat TH . 2000 wetland water salt pan Figure IV.3 Classification Map of 2000 image aR4.8 Ground Check and Inventory « Ground truth was defined as the observation , measurement and collection of information about the actual condition on the ground in order to determine the relationship between remote sensing and object in the field. Generally , ground truth should be conducted at the same as data acquisition , or at least within the time that environmental condition does not change. However , itis 20 sqm / hace) Area 10 - 20 eq. m/hactre ) /Sparee Mangroves ( Basal Area 10 eqin/hactr ) [Orchards ined wit houses Yo 0 1020 Kilometers Fle Felt — ‘Saltpan ° ‘Sand dune Wand ote Source : Landsat TM , 1995 RRAppendix.11 Land use / land cover map of study area ( 2000 ) Land Use / Land Cover Map of Study Area ( 2000 ) Bogelay she Dence Mangroves (Basal Area > 20 6a.0/' hace) fe Mocern Meno (ace ve 10-20 sata) 10 10 Kilometers Scere Soed wahoo —— ee Fits Span Source : Landsat TM , 2000 eters 89.Appendix.12 Roads networks in study area Roads Networks in Study Area N ‘A 10 9 10 __20 Kilometers SS /\/ Roads CI Study Area Source : Topographic map , Forest DepartmentAppendix.13 Streams networks in study area Streams Network in Study Area 8 0 & 16 Kilometers = Study Area Source : Topographic map , Forest DepartmentAppendix.14 Population density map of study area Population Density Map of Study Area Population Density Low ( 0-5000 ) Medium { 5000 - 10000 ) 10 9 10 20 Kilometers High ( 10000 - 30000 ) ——— Study Area Source : Survey Department , Myanmar 2Appendix.15 Forest cover map of study area Forest Cover Map of Study Area 10 9 10 20 Kilometers ———et Non Forest Hl Forest Source : Landsat TM, 2000 3Appeadix.16 Deforestation risk model map of study area Deforestation Risk Model Map of Study Area N 9 0 9 18 Kilometers [] Non Forest ———Appendix.17 Field Photos Dense mangrove forest Bruguiera spp. in study arca 95‘Nypa tress around the river "protected Mangrove Forest in Mainmnahla ReserveEncroachment of paddy field into the forest Paddy field encroached last three years 97‘Nypa thatch for roofing Preparation of fuel wood for market 98Fish Pond Salt production area in the study area 99People illegally settlement for cutting the forest products Micgal Cutting of Phoenix paludosaOrchards ( coconut trees ) Avicennia officinalis 101‘Mangroves nursery from forest department for reafforestation Fisher man lived in the river 102